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1966 AFL Season

63 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Kansas City Chiefs

2nd Title

Last Title: 1962

Runner-Up

Buffalo Bills

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1965

Biggest Overachiever

Kansas City Chiefs

3.12 wins above expected

11 wins · 8.38 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Houston Oilers

3.83 wins below expected

3 wins · 6.83 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Buffalo Bills Division 9 4 1 .679 — 358 255 +103 8.41 +1.09
2 Boston Patriots 8 4 2 .643 0.5 315 283 +32 7.28 +1.72
3 New York Jets 6 6 2 .500 2.5 322 312 +10 7.23 -0.23
4 Miami Dolphins 3 11 0 .214 6.5 213 362 -149 2.90 +0.10
5 Houston Oilers 3 11 0 .214 6.5 335 396 -61 6.83 -3.83
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Kansas City Chiefs Division 11 2 1 .821 — 448 276 +172 8.38 +3.12
2 Oakland Raiders 8 5 1 .607 3 315 288 +27 7.79 +0.71
3 San Diego Chargers 7 6 1 .536 4 335 284 +51 8.09 -0.59
4 Denver Broncos 4 10 0 .286 7.5 196 381 -185 6.09 -2.09

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFL Championship Game

Kansas City Chiefs 31
Buffalo Bills 7

Jan 1

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Kansas City Chiefs West 1593 11.5 8.38 +3.12 99.77% 2 5 7 8 9 11 14
Buffalo Bills East 1589 9.5 8.41 +1.09 93.22% 2 5 7 8 9 11 13
San Diego Chargers West 1555 7.5 8.09 -0.59 70.18% 1 5 6 8 9 10 14
Oakland Raiders West 1548 8.5 7.79 +0.71 89.92% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
Boston Patriots East 1542 9 7.28 +1.72 98.35% 0 4 5 7 8 10 14
New York Jets East 1509 7 7.23 -0.23 84.09% 1 4 5 7 8 10 13
Houston Oilers East 1459 3 6.83 -3.83 5.75% 0 3 5 6 7 9 13
Denver Broncos West 1435 4 6.09 -2.09 27.61% 0 3 4 6 7 8 13
Miami Dolphins East 1271 3 2.90 +0.10 79.04% 0 0 1 2 3 5 9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Dolphins Jets
Boston Patriots —
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
0-1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
 —
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
Houston Oilers
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
 —
0-2
(1.4 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
2-0
(0.4 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
New York Jets
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Boston Patriots
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
New York Jets
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)

Within West

Team Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Denver Broncos —
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
 —
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Dolphins Jets
Denver Broncos
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
1-0-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 8.38 +3.12
2 Boston Patriots 9 7.28 +1.72
3 Buffalo Bills 9.5 8.41 +1.09
4 Oakland Raiders 8.5 7.79 +0.71
5 Miami Dolphins 3 2.90 +0.10

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Houston Oilers 3 6.83 -3.83
2 Denver Broncos 4 6.09 -2.09
3 San Diego Chargers 7.5 8.09 -0.59
4 New York Jets 7 7.23 -0.23
5 Miami Dolphins 3 2.90 +0.10

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Miami Dolphins 2 Oct 16 – Oct 23 1 in 25
2 Buffalo Bills 5 Oct 30 – Nov 24 1 in 18
3 Boston Patriots 3 Oct 8 – Oct 30 1 in 14
4 San Diego Chargers 4 Sep 4 – Oct 2 1 in 9
5 Oakland Raiders 3 Oct 9 – Oct 23 1 in 8

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Houston Oilers 8 Oct 23 – Dec 18 1 in 898
2 New York Jets 4 Oct 16 – Nov 13 1 in 19
3 Denver Broncos 4 Oct 8 – Oct 30 1 in 17
4 San Diego Chargers 3 Nov 6 – Nov 27 1 in 16
5 Oakland Raiders 3 Sep 10 – Sep 25 1 in 10

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team12345
Buffalo Bills44.20%27.81%17.33%9.91%0.75%
Boston Patriots20.88%25.91%26.34%24.13%2.74%
New York Jets20.38%24.07%27.45%24.93%3.17%
Houston Oilers14.39%21.78%26.97%31.81%5.05%
Miami Dolphins0.15%0.43%1.91%9.22%88.29%
Team1234
Kansas City Chiefs37.64%29.99%21.56%10.81%
San Diego Chargers31.55%29.66%25.32%13.47%
Oakland Raiders25.02%27.79%29.32%17.87%
Denver Broncos5.79%12.56%23.80%57.85%
Team123456789
Buffalo Bills22.07%18.19%15.91%13.55%10.44%9.20%6.25%3.83%0.56%
Kansas City Chiefs21.59%18.12%15.95%12.66%11.25%9.20%6.82%3.94%0.47%
San Diego Chargers18.12%16.22%15.06%13.49%12.43%9.84%8.79%5.31%0.74%
Oakland Raiders13.06%13.91%14.20%14.18%13.80%12.37%10.09%7.15%1.24%
Boston Patriots8.85%11.07%11.77%13.40%12.90%14.22%13.44%12.13%2.22%
New York Jets8.85%10.35%11.15%12.54%13.58%14.54%14.28%12.39%2.32%
Houston Oilers5.39%7.68%9.77%11.77%14.10%14.40%16.65%16.09%4.15%
Denver Broncos2.05%4.38%6.07%8.18%10.92%14.82%19.81%26.29%7.48%
Miami Dolphins0.02%0.08%0.12%0.23%0.58%1.41%3.87%12.87%80.82%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Buffalo Bills44.20%55.80%
Boston Patriots20.88%79.12%
New York Jets20.38%79.62%
Houston Oilers14.39%85.61%
Miami Dolphins0.15%99.85%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs37.64%62.36%
San Diego Chargers31.55%68.45%
Oakland Raiders25.02%74.98%
Denver Broncos5.79%94.21%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Championship Game
Buffalo Bills 44.20% 23.08%
Kansas City Chiefs 37.64% 22.03%
San Diego Chargers 31.55% 16.51%
Oakland Raiders 25.02% 12.93%
Boston Patriots 20.88% 9.96%
New York Jets 20.38% 8.41%
Houston Oilers 14.39% 5.01%
Denver Broncos 5.79% 2.07%
Miami Dolphins 0.15% —
Loser →
↓ Winner
Boston PatriotsBuffalo BillsDenver BroncosHouston OilersKansas City ChiefsMiami DolphinsNew York JetsOakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots0.79%3.08%2.65%3.44%
Buffalo Bills1.74%7.96%6.29%7.09%
Denver Broncos0.34%0.82%0.40%0.51%
Houston Oilers0.47%1.55%1.28%1.71%
Kansas City Chiefs4.29%8.25%3.75%0.05%5.69%
New York Jets0.72%3.02%1.87%2.80%
Oakland Raiders3.01%5.40%2.13%0.04%2.35%
San Diego Chargers3.28%6.65%3.10%0.06%3.42%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Championship Game Actual Outcome
Kansas City Chiefs 57.62% Won Championship Game
Loser →
↓ Winner
Boston PatriotsKansas City Chiefs
Boston Patriots42.38%
Kansas City Chiefs57.62%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Kansas City Chiefs 57.62% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Boston Patriots
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
57.62%
Boston Patriots 42.38% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
42.38%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1966-09-10 @ San Diego Chargers L 0-24 1523.65 1563.63 36.53% 55.45% -7.50 0-1
1966-09-18 @ Denver Broncos W 24-10 1516.15 1476.49 47.68% 44.23% +6.84 1-1
1966-09-25 Kansas City Chiefs L 24-43 1522.99 1561.13 44.44% 47.46% -8.01 1-2
1966-10-02 New York Jets T 24-24 1514.98 1531.28 47.58% 44.33% -0.03 1-2
1966-10-08 @ Buffalo Bills W 20-10 1514.95 1568.61 34.73% 57.29% +7.37 2-2
1966-10-23 San Diego Chargers W 35-17 1522.32 1577.26 42.06% 49.86% +8.67 3-2
1966-10-30 Oakland Raiders W 24-21 1530.99 1532.43 49.70% 42.22% +3.04 4-2
1966-11-06 Denver Broncos L 10-17 1534.03 1436.43 62.90% 29.27% -6.75 4-3
1966-11-13 Houston Oilers W 27-21 1527.28 1485.09 55.75% 36.24% +3.72 5-3
1966-11-20 @ Kansas City Chiefs T 27-27 1531.00 1581.43 35.15% 56.86% +0.21 5-3
1966-11-27 @ Miami Dolphins W 20-14 1531.21 1273.52 74.17% 18.61% +1.95 6-3
1966-12-04 Buffalo Bills W 14-3 1533.16 1591.35 41.60% 50.31% +6.84 7-3
1966-12-11 @ Houston Oilers W 38-14 1540.00 1470.18 51.95% 39.98% +8.16 8-3
1966-12-17 @ New York Jets L 28-38 1548.16 1502.24 48.57% 43.34% -6.31 8-4
1966-09-04 @ San Diego Chargers L 7-27 1571.81 1555.43 44.34% 47.57% -8.20 0-1
1966-09-11 Kansas City Chiefs L 20-42 1563.61 1541.94 52.94% 39.00% -10.14 0-2
1966-09-18 Miami Dolphins W 58-24 1553.47 1270.76 80.70% 12.74% +3.17 1-2
1966-09-25 Houston Oilers W 27-20 1556.64 1503.23 57.25% 34.76% +3.87 2-2
1966-10-02 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 29-14 1560.51 1569.14 40.81% 51.12% +8.10 3-2
1966-10-08 Boston Patriots L 10-20 1568.61 1514.95 57.29% 34.73% -7.37 3-3
1966-10-16 San Diego Chargers T 17-17 1561.24 1577.23 47.62% 44.28% -0.03 3-3
1966-10-30 @ New York Jets W 33-23 1561.21 1520.30 47.86% 44.05% +5.76 4-3
1966-11-06 @ Miami Dolphins W 29-0 1566.97 1282.26 76.56% 16.43% +3.79 5-3
1966-11-13 New York Jets W 14-3 1570.76 1514.53 57.63% 34.40% +4.79 6-3
1966-11-20 @ Houston Oilers W 42-20 1575.55 1481.37 55.31% 36.67% +7.21 7-3
1966-11-24 @ Oakland Raiders W 31-10 1582.76 1551.30 46.50% 45.40% +8.59 8-3
1966-12-04 @ Boston Patriots L 3-14 1591.35 1533.16 50.31% 41.60% -6.84 8-4
1966-12-18 Denver Broncos W 38-21 1584.51 1439.36 68.40% 24.01% +4.22 9-4
1966-09-03 @ Houston Oilers L 7-45 1487.06 1492.64 41.23% 50.69% -10.57 0-1
1966-09-18 Boston Patriots L 10-24 1476.49 1516.15 44.23% 47.68% -6.85 0-2
1966-09-25 New York Jets L 7-16 1469.64 1526.07 41.85% 50.06% -5.21 0-3
1966-10-02 Houston Oilers W 40-38 1464.43 1499.36 44.90% 47.00% +2.74 1-3
1966-10-08 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 10-37 1467.17 1561.04 29.72% 62.44% -6.54 1-4
1966-10-16 @ Miami Dolphins L 7-24 1460.63 1262.70 68.13% 24.27% -11.37 1-5
1966-10-23 Kansas City Chiefs L 10-56 1449.26 1557.00 34.88% 57.13% -9.94 1-6
1966-10-30 @ San Diego Chargers L 17-24 1439.32 1568.59 25.69% 66.63% -2.89 1-7
1966-11-06 @ Boston Patriots W 17-10 1436.43 1534.03 29.27% 62.90% +6.75 2-7
1966-11-20 Oakland Raiders L 3-17 1443.18 1545.72 35.56% 56.44% -5.59 2-8
1966-11-27 San Diego Chargers W 20-17 1437.59 1555.64 33.55% 58.49% +4.12 3-8
1966-12-04 Miami Dolphins W 17-7 1441.71 1271.57 71.04% 21.53% +2.91 4-8
1966-12-11 @ Oakland Raiders L 10-28 1444.62 1542.55 29.24% 62.94% -5.26 4-9
1966-12-18 @ Buffalo Bills L 21-38 1439.36 1584.51 24.01% 68.40% -4.21 4-10
1966-09-03 Denver Broncos W 45-7 1492.64 1487.06 50.69% 41.23% +10.57 1-0
1966-09-10 Oakland Raiders W 31-0 1503.21 1541.51 44.42% 47.48% +10.88 2-0
1966-09-18 @ New York Jets L 13-52 1514.09 1515.21 41.86% 50.06% -10.86 2-1
1966-09-25 @ Buffalo Bills L 20-27 1503.23 1556.64 34.76% 57.25% -3.87 2-2
1966-10-02 @ Denver Broncos L 38-40 1499.36 1464.43 47.00% 44.90% -2.73 2-3
1966-10-16 New York Jets W 24-0 1496.63 1533.32 44.65% 47.25% +9.52 3-3
1966-10-23 Miami Dolphins L 13-20 1506.15 1274.07 76.78% 16.22% -8.19 3-4
1966-10-30 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 23-48 1497.96 1566.94 32.77% 59.30% -6.90 3-5
1966-11-06 @ Oakland Raiders L 23-38 1491.06 1529.39 36.75% 55.23% -5.97 3-6
1966-11-13 @ Boston Patriots L 21-27 1485.09 1527.28 36.24% 55.75% -3.72 3-7
1966-11-20 Buffalo Bills L 20-42 1481.37 1575.55 36.67% 55.31% -7.20 3-8
1966-12-04 San Diego Chargers L 22-28 1474.17 1551.53 38.95% 53.00% -3.99 3-9
1966-12-11 Boston Patriots L 14-38 1470.18 1540.00 39.98% 51.95% -8.16 3-10
1966-12-18 @ Miami Dolphins L 28-29 1462.02 1268.06 67.69% 24.68% -2.74 3-11
1966-09-11 @ Buffalo Bills W 42-20 1541.94 1563.61 39.00% 52.94% +10.15 1-0
1966-09-18 @ Oakland Raiders W 32-10 1552.09 1530.63 45.06% 46.84% +9.04 2-0
1966-09-25 @ Boston Patriots W 43-24 1561.13 1522.99 47.46% 44.44% +8.01 3-0
1966-10-02 Buffalo Bills L 14-29 1569.14 1560.51 51.12% 40.81% -8.10 3-1
1966-10-08 Denver Broncos W 37-10 1561.04 1467.17 62.44% 29.72% +6.54 4-1
1966-10-16 Oakland Raiders L 13-34 1567.58 1518.36 56.70% 35.31% -10.58 4-2
1966-10-23 @ Denver Broncos W 56-10 1557.00 1449.26 57.13% 34.88% +9.94 5-2
1966-10-30 Houston Oilers W 48-23 1566.94 1497.96 59.30% 32.77% +6.91 6-2
1966-11-06 San Diego Chargers W 24-14 1573.85 1571.49 50.23% 41.68% +5.48 7-2
1966-11-13 Miami Dolphins W 34-16 1579.33 1278.47 81.94% 11.65% +2.10 8-2
1966-11-20 Boston Patriots T 27-27 1581.43 1531.00 56.86% 35.15% -0.21 8-2
1966-11-27 @ New York Jets W 32-24 1581.22 1512.58 51.78% 40.15% +4.74 9-2
1966-12-11 @ Miami Dolphins W 19-18 1585.96 1268.66 79.18% 14.07% +0.60 10-2
1966-12-18 @ San Diego Chargers W 27-17 1586.56 1561.28 45.61% 46.29% +6.03 11-2
1966-09-02 Oakland Raiders L 14-23 1275.00 1539.19 18.07% 74.76% -2.32 0-1
1966-09-09 New York Jets L 14-19 1272.68 1513.29 20.11% 72.55% -1.92 0-2
1966-09-18 @ Buffalo Bills L 24-58 1270.76 1553.47 12.74% 80.70% -3.17 0-3
1966-10-02 @ San Diego Chargers L 10-44 1267.59 1576.45 11.20% 82.47% -2.79 0-4
1966-10-09 @ Oakland Raiders L 10-21 1264.80 1516.26 14.80% 78.36% -2.10 0-5
1966-10-16 Denver Broncos W 24-7 1262.70 1460.63 24.27% 68.13% +11.37 1-5
1966-10-23 @ Houston Oilers W 20-13 1274.07 1506.15 16.22% 76.78% +8.19 2-5
1966-11-06 Buffalo Bills L 0-29 1282.26 1566.97 16.43% 76.56% -3.79 2-6
1966-11-13 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 16-34 1278.47 1579.33 11.65% 81.94% -2.11 2-7
1966-11-20 @ New York Jets L 13-30 1276.36 1509.74 16.13% 76.89% -2.84 2-8
1966-11-27 Boston Patriots L 14-20 1273.52 1531.21 18.61% 74.17% -1.95 2-9
1966-12-04 @ Denver Broncos L 7-17 1271.57 1441.71 21.53% 71.04% -2.91 2-10
1966-12-11 Kansas City Chiefs L 18-19 1268.66 1585.96 14.07% 79.18% -0.60 2-11
1966-12-18 Houston Oilers W 29-28 1268.06 1462.02 24.68% 67.69% +2.74 3-11
1966-09-09 @ Miami Dolphins W 19-14 1513.29 1272.68 72.55% 20.11% +1.92 1-0
1966-09-18 Houston Oilers W 52-13 1515.21 1514.09 50.06% 41.86% +10.86 2-0
1966-09-25 @ Denver Broncos W 16-7 1526.07 1469.64 50.06% 41.85% +5.21 3-0
1966-10-02 @ Boston Patriots T 24-24 1531.28 1514.98 44.33% 47.58% +0.03 3-0
1966-10-08 San Diego Chargers W 17-16 1531.31 1579.24 43.05% 48.86% +2.01 4-0
1966-10-16 @ Houston Oilers L 0-24 1533.32 1496.63 47.25% 44.65% -9.53 4-1
1966-10-23 Oakland Raiders L 21-24 1523.79 1528.93 49.17% 42.74% -3.49 4-2
1966-10-30 Buffalo Bills L 23-33 1520.30 1561.21 44.05% 47.86% -5.77 4-3
1966-11-13 @ Buffalo Bills L 3-14 1514.53 1570.76 34.40% 57.63% -4.79 4-4
1966-11-20 Miami Dolphins W 30-13 1509.74 1276.36 76.89% 16.13% +2.84 5-4
1966-11-27 Kansas City Chiefs L 24-32 1512.58 1581.22 40.15% 51.78% -4.73 5-5
1966-12-03 @ Oakland Raiders T 28-28 1507.85 1542.72 37.21% 54.76% +0.17 5-5
1966-12-11 @ San Diego Chargers L 27-42 1508.02 1555.51 35.54% 56.46% -5.78 5-6
1966-12-17 Boston Patriots W 38-28 1502.24 1548.16 43.34% 48.57% +6.31 6-6
1966-09-02 @ Miami Dolphins W 23-14 1539.19 1275.00 74.76% 18.07% +2.32 1-0
1966-09-10 @ Houston Oilers L 0-31 1541.51 1503.21 47.48% 44.42% -10.88 1-1
1966-09-18 Kansas City Chiefs L 10-32 1530.63 1552.09 46.84% 45.06% -9.05 1-2
1966-09-25 San Diego Chargers L 20-29 1521.58 1571.13 42.82% 49.09% -5.32 1-3
1966-10-09 Miami Dolphins W 21-10 1516.26 1264.80 78.36% 14.80% +2.10 2-3
1966-10-16 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 34-13 1518.36 1567.58 35.31% 56.70% +10.57 3-3
1966-10-23 @ New York Jets W 24-21 1528.93 1523.79 42.74% 49.17% +3.50 4-3
1966-10-30 @ Boston Patriots L 21-24 1532.43 1530.99 42.22% 49.70% -3.04 4-4
1966-11-06 Houston Oilers W 38-23 1529.39 1491.06 55.23% 36.75% +5.96 5-4
1966-11-13 @ San Diego Chargers W 41-19 1535.35 1566.01 37.78% 54.18% +10.37 6-4
1966-11-20 @ Denver Broncos W 17-3 1545.72 1443.18 56.44% 35.56% +5.58 7-4
1966-11-24 Buffalo Bills L 10-31 1551.30 1582.76 45.40% 46.50% -8.58 7-5
1966-12-03 New York Jets T 28-28 1542.72 1507.85 54.76% 37.21% -0.17 7-5
1966-12-11 Denver Broncos W 28-10 1542.55 1444.62 62.94% 29.24% +5.25 8-5
1966-09-04 Buffalo Bills W 27-7 1555.43 1571.81 47.57% 44.34% +8.20 1-0
1966-09-10 Boston Patriots W 24-0 1563.63 1523.65 55.45% 36.53% +7.50 2-0
1966-09-25 @ Oakland Raiders W 29-20 1571.13 1521.58 49.09% 42.82% +5.32 3-0
1966-10-02 Miami Dolphins W 44-10 1576.45 1267.59 82.47% 11.20% +2.79 4-0
1966-10-08 @ New York Jets L 16-17 1579.24 1531.31 48.86% 43.05% -2.01 4-1
1966-10-16 @ Buffalo Bills T 17-17 1577.23 1561.24 44.28% 47.62% +0.03 4-1
1966-10-23 @ Boston Patriots L 17-35 1577.26 1522.32 49.86% 42.06% -8.67 4-2
1966-10-30 Denver Broncos W 24-17 1568.59 1439.32 66.63% 25.69% +2.90 5-2
1966-11-06 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 14-24 1571.49 1573.85 41.68% 50.23% -5.48 5-3
1966-11-13 Oakland Raiders L 19-41 1566.01 1535.35 54.18% 37.78% -10.37 5-4
1966-11-27 @ Denver Broncos L 17-20 1555.64 1437.59 58.49% 33.55% -4.11 5-5
1966-12-04 @ Houston Oilers W 28-22 1551.53 1474.17 53.00% 38.95% +3.98 6-5
1966-12-11 New York Jets W 42-27 1555.51 1508.02 56.46% 35.54% +5.77 7-5
1966-12-18 Kansas City Chiefs L 17-27 1561.28 1586.56 46.29% 45.61% -6.03 7-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1967-01-01 Kansas City Chiefs L 7-31 1588.73 1592.59 53.42% 46.58% -9.92 0-1
1967-01-01 @ Buffalo Bills W 31-7 1592.59 1588.73 46.58% 53.42% +9.92 1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1966-10-23 16.22% Miami Dolphins 1274.07 20 @ Houston Oilers 1506.15 13
2 1966-10-16 24.27% @ Miami Dolphins 1262.70 24 Denver Broncos 1460.63 7
3 1966-12-18 24.68% @ Miami Dolphins 1268.06 29 Houston Oilers 1462.02 28
4 1966-11-06 29.27% Denver Broncos 1436.43 17 @ Boston Patriots 1534.03 10
5 1966-11-27 33.55% @ Denver Broncos 1437.59 20 San Diego Chargers 1555.64 17
6 1966-10-08 34.73% Boston Patriots 1514.95 20 @ Buffalo Bills 1568.61 10
7 1966-10-16 35.31% Oakland Raiders 1518.36 34 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1567.58 13
8 1966-11-13 37.78% Oakland Raiders 1535.35 41 @ San Diego Chargers 1566.01 19
9 1966-09-11 39.00% Kansas City Chiefs 1541.94 42 @ Buffalo Bills 1563.61 20
10 1966-10-02 40.81% Buffalo Bills 1560.51 29 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1569.14 14
11 1966-12-04 41.60% @ Boston Patriots 1533.16 14 Buffalo Bills 1591.35 3
12 1966-10-23 42.06% @ Boston Patriots 1522.32 35 San Diego Chargers 1577.26 17
13 1966-10-23 42.74% Oakland Raiders 1528.93 24 @ New York Jets 1523.79 21
14 1966-10-08 43.05% @ New York Jets 1531.31 17 San Diego Chargers 1579.24 16
15 1966-12-17 43.34% @ New York Jets 1502.24 38 Boston Patriots 1548.16 28
16 1966-09-10 44.42% @ Houston Oilers 1503.21 31 Oakland Raiders 1541.51 0
17 1966-10-16 44.65% @ Houston Oilers 1496.63 24 New York Jets 1533.32 0
18 1966-10-02 44.90% @ Denver Broncos 1464.43 40 Houston Oilers 1499.36 38
19 1966-09-18 45.06% Kansas City Chiefs 1552.09 32 @ Oakland Raiders 1530.63 10
20 1966-12-18 45.61% Kansas City Chiefs 1586.56 27 @ San Diego Chargers 1561.28 17
21 1967-01-01 * 46.58% Kansas City Chiefs 1592.59 31 @ Buffalo Bills 1588.73 7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1966-10-16 11.37 @ Miami Dolphins 24 1262.70 24.27% Denver Broncos 7 1460.63 68.13%
2 1966-09-10 10.88 @ Houston Oilers 31 1503.21 44.42% Oakland Raiders 0 1541.51 47.48%
3 1966-09-18 10.86 @ New York Jets 52 1515.21 50.06% Houston Oilers 13 1514.09 41.86%
4 1966-10-16 10.58 Oakland Raiders 34 1518.36 35.31% @ Kansas City Chiefs 13 1567.58 56.70%
5 1966-09-03 10.57 @ Houston Oilers 45 1492.64 50.69% Denver Broncos 7 1487.06 41.23%
6 1966-11-13 10.37 Oakland Raiders 41 1535.35 37.78% @ San Diego Chargers 19 1566.01 54.18%
7 1966-09-11 10.15 Kansas City Chiefs 42 1541.94 39.00% @ Buffalo Bills 20 1563.61 52.94%
8 1966-10-23 9.94 Kansas City Chiefs 56 1557.00 57.13% @ Denver Broncos 10 1449.26 34.88%
9 1967-01-01 * 9.92 Kansas City Chiefs 31 1592.59 46.58% @ Buffalo Bills 7 1588.73 53.42%
10 1966-10-16 9.53 @ Houston Oilers 24 1496.63 44.65% New York Jets 0 1533.32 47.25%
11 1966-09-18 9.05 Kansas City Chiefs 32 1552.09 45.06% @ Oakland Raiders 10 1530.63 46.84%
12 1966-10-23 8.67 @ Boston Patriots 35 1522.32 42.06% San Diego Chargers 17 1577.26 49.86%
13 1966-11-24 8.59 Buffalo Bills 31 1582.76 46.50% @ Oakland Raiders 10 1551.30 45.40%
14 1966-09-04 8.20 @ San Diego Chargers 27 1555.43 47.57% Buffalo Bills 7 1571.81 44.34%
15 1966-10-23 8.19 Miami Dolphins 20 1274.07 16.22% @ Houston Oilers 13 1506.15 76.78%
16 1966-12-11 8.16 Boston Patriots 38 1540.00 51.95% @ Houston Oilers 14 1470.18 39.98%
17 1966-10-02 8.10 Buffalo Bills 29 1560.51 40.81% @ Kansas City Chiefs 14 1569.14 51.12%
18 1966-09-25 8.01 Kansas City Chiefs 43 1561.13 47.46% @ Boston Patriots 24 1522.99 44.44%
19 1966-09-10 7.50 @ San Diego Chargers 24 1563.63 55.45% Boston Patriots 0 1523.65 36.53%
20 1966-10-08 7.37 Boston Patriots 20 1514.95 34.73% @ Buffalo Bills 10 1568.61 57.29%
21 1966-11-20 7.21 Buffalo Bills 42 1575.55 55.31% @ Houston Oilers 20 1481.37 36.67%
22 1966-10-30 6.91 @ Kansas City Chiefs 48 1566.94 59.30% Houston Oilers 23 1497.96 32.77%
23 1966-09-18 6.85 Boston Patriots 24 1516.15 47.68% @ Denver Broncos 10 1476.49 44.23%
24 1966-12-04 6.84 @ Boston Patriots 14 1533.16 41.60% Buffalo Bills 3 1591.35 50.31%
25 1966-11-06 6.75 Denver Broncos 17 1436.43 29.27% @ Boston Patriots 10 1534.03 62.90%