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1950 Kategoria e Parë Season

96 games

Final

Champion

Dinamo Tirana

20 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dinamo Tirana

3.35 points above expected

20 points · 16.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Spartaku Pogradec

4.78 points below expected

0 points · 4.78 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dinamo Tirana Champion 11 10 0 1 20 40 4 +36 16.65 +3.35
2 Partizani 11 10 0 1 20 57 7 +50 18.45 +1.55
3 Shkodra 11 8 1 2 17 35 8 +27 16.14 +0.86
4 Kavaja 11 5 3 3 13 17 13 +4 10.35 +2.65
5 Lezhe 11 4 3 4 11 16 14 +2 12.45 -1.45
6 Vlora 11 4 3 4 11 16 22 -6 12.30 -1.30
7 Korca 11 4 2 5 10 17 24 -7 9.88 +0.12
8 Durres 11 4 2 5 10 15 23 -8 9.62 +0.38
9 Elbasani 11 3 2 6 8 10 24 -14 5.48 +2.52
10 Fieri 11 3 0 8 6 16 33 -17 8.99 -2.99
11 KF Tirana 11 2 2 7 6 16 21 -5 6.91 -0.91
12 Spartaku Pogradec 11 0 0 11 0 8 70 -62 4.78 -4.78
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dinamo Tirana 5 4 1 0 9 20 2 +18 — —
2 Partizani 5 4 1 0 9 20 3 +17 — —
3 Korca 5 4 1 0 9 14 0 +14 — —
4 KF Tirana 5 4 0 1 8 18 3 +15 — —
5 Shkodra 5 3 0 2 6 10 10 0 — —
6 Elbasani 5 2 1 2 5 8 6 +2 — —
7 Durres 5 2 1 2 5 9 8 +1 — —
8 Fieri 5 1 1 3 3 9 12 -3 — —
9 Lezhe 5 1 0 4 2 4 12 -8 — —
10 Kavaja 5 1 0 4 2 4 19 -15 — —
11 Vlora 5 1 0 4 2 4 16 -12 — —
12 Spartaku Pogradec 5 0 0 5 0 0 29 -29 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dinamo Tirana 20 16.65 +3.35
2 Kavaja 13 10.35 +2.65
3 Elbasani 8 5.48 +2.52
4 Partizani 20 18.45 +1.55
5 Shkodra 17 16.14 +0.86

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Spartaku Pogradec 0 4.78 -4.78
2 Fieri 6 8.99 -2.99
3 Lezhe 11 12.45 -1.45
4 Vlora 11 12.30 -1.30
5 KF Tirana 6 6.91 -0.91

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dinamo Tirana 1894 29 +173 9 7.4 +1.6
Partizani 1963 29 +92 9 8.1 +0.9
Shkodra 1630 23 -34 6 6.0 +0.0
Korca 1410 19 +176 9 7.3 +1.7
Durres 1111 15 -144 5 6.3 -1.3
Kavaja 1279 15 -229 2 4.2 -2.2
KF Tirana 1476 14 +263 8 6.1 +1.9
Elbasani 1163 13 -38 5 5.6 -0.6
Lezhe 1315 13 +61 2 1.5 +0.5
Vlora 1238 13 -89 2 2.9 -0.9
Fieri 950 9 -132 3 3.7 -0.7
Spartaku Pogradec 542 0 -133 0 1.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DT DUR ELB FIE KT KAV KOR LEZ PAR SHK SP VLO
Dinamo Tirana —
1-0-0
1.97
1-0-0
2.15
1-0-0
2.70
1-0-0
2.46
0-0-1
2.28
1-0-0
2.67
1-0-0
1.96
1-0-0
1.18
1-0-0
1.15
1-0-0
2.73
1-0-0
2.65
Durres
0-0-1
0.90
 —
1-0-0
2.42
1-0-0
0.83
1-0-0
2.01
0-1-0
1.92
0-0-1
0.94
0-0-1
0.53
0-0-1
0.32
0-0-1
0.37
1-0-0
2.05
0-1-0
1.62
Elbasani
0-0-1
0.72
0-0-1
0.45
 —
0-0-1
1.05
1-0-0
0.78
0-0-1
0.85
0-1-0
1.55
1-0-0
0.70
0-0-1
0.19
0-0-1
0.41
1-0-0
0.56
0-1-0
0.30
Fieri
0-0-1
0.17
0-0-1
2.03
1-0-0
1.82
 —
1-0-0
1.87
0-0-1
1.08
0-0-1
1.54
0-0-1
0.87
0-0-1
0.13
0-0-1
0.15
1-0-0
2.54
0-0-1
0.30
KF Tirana
0-0-1
0.41
0-0-1
0.86
0-0-1
2.09
0-0-1
0.99
 —
0-1-0
0.27
1-0-0
0.82
0-1-0
0.38
0-0-1
0.82
0-0-1
0.45
1-0-0
2.40
0-0-1
0.35
Kavaja
1-0-0
0.59
0-1-0
0.95
1-0-0
2.02
1-0-0
1.79
0-1-0
2.59
 —
0-0-1
1.19
1-0-0
1.92
0-0-1
0.23
0-0-1
0.38
1-0-0
2.61
0-1-0
0.52
Korca
0-0-1
0.20
1-0-0
1.92
0-1-0
1.31
1-0-0
1.33
0-0-1
2.05
1-0-0
1.68
 —
0-1-0
1.38
0-0-1
0.17
0-0-1
0.91
1-0-0
1.96
0-0-1
0.34
Lezhe
0-0-1
0.91
1-0-0
2.34
0-0-1
2.17
1-0-0
2.00
0-1-0
2.49
0-0-1
0.95
0-1-0
1.48
 —
0-0-1
0.64
0-1-0
0.81
1-0-0
2.32
1-0-0
1.25
Partizani
0-0-1
1.69
1-0-0
2.55
1-0-0
2.68
1-0-0
2.74
1-0-0
2.04
1-0-0
2.64
1-0-0
2.70
1-0-0
2.22
 —
1-0-0
2.46
1-0-0
2.76
1-0-0
2.69
Shkodra
0-0-1
1.72
1-0-0
2.50
1-0-0
2.46
1-0-0
2.72
1-0-0
2.42
1-0-0
2.49
1-0-0
1.96
0-1-0
2.06
0-0-1
0.41
 —
1-0-0
2.69
1-0-0
2.54
Spartaku Pogradec
0-0-1
0.14
0-0-1
0.82
0-0-1
2.30
0-0-1
0.33
0-0-1
0.47
0-0-1
0.26
0-0-1
0.90
0-0-1
0.55
0-0-1
0.12
0-0-1
0.18
 —
0-0-1
0.75
Vlora
0-0-1
0.22
0-1-0
1.24
0-1-0
2.57
1-0-0
2.57
1-0-0
2.52
0-1-0
2.35
1-0-0
2.53
0-0-1
1.62
0-0-1
0.18
0-0-1
0.32
1-0-0
2.12
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.74 +3.5
Allowed 0.76 -3.0
Differential 0.93 +2.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.08%3.65%7.81%2.08%2.60%8.85%27.08%
13.65%8.33%4.69%5.21%4.17%2.08%28.12%
27.81%4.69%2.08%1.56%0.52%0.52%17.19%
32.08%5.21%1.56%———8.85%
42.60%4.17%0.52%———7.29%
5+8.85%2.08%0.52%———11.46%
Total27.08%28.12%17.19%8.85%7.29%11.46%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.99 1.99 +0.00
SD 2.25 2.25 3.82
CV 1.13 1.13 —
Max 11 11 +11
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 96

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
118.75%6.25%————25.00%
26.25%——6.25%——12.50%
312.50%—————12.50%
46.25%12.50%————18.75%
5+31.25%—————31.25%
Total75.00%18.75%—6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.75 0.38 +3.38
SD 2.70 0.81 2.99
CV 0.72 2.15 —
Max 11 3 +11
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%————12.50%18.75%
1—12.50%6.25%12.50%12.50%—43.75%
26.25%12.50%————18.75%
3—6.25%————6.25%
412.50%—————12.50%
5+———————
Total25.00%31.25%6.25%12.50%12.50%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.94 -0.44
SD 1.26 1.81 2.78
CV 0.84 0.93 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——31.25%—6.25%6.25%43.75%
112.50%12.50%——6.25%—31.25%
2——6.25%———6.25%
3—6.25%————6.25%
46.25%—6.25%———12.50%
5+———————
Total18.75%18.75%43.75%—12.50%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.88 -0.75
SD 1.41 1.45 2.41
CV 1.25 0.78 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——12.50%—6.25%12.50%31.25%
1—6.25%18.75%6.25%6.25%6.25%43.75%
26.25%6.25%————12.50%
3———————
4———————
5+6.25%6.25%————12.50%
Total12.50%18.75%31.25%6.25%12.50%18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 2.81 -1.25
SD 2.25 2.40 3.99
CV 1.44 0.85 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%25.00%———6.25%37.50%
1—6.25%12.50%—6.25%—25.00%
26.25%—————6.25%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4—12.50%————12.50%
5+6.25%—6.25%———12.50%
Total18.75%50.00%18.75%—6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.12 1.50 +0.62
SD 2.85 1.55 3.50
CV 1.34 1.03 —
Max 9 6 +8
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—6.25%——12.50%25.00%
1—12.50%6.25%18.75%——37.50%
218.75%6.25%————25.00%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%18.75%18.75%—12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 2.00 -0.69
SD 1.14 2.07 2.80
CV 0.87 1.03 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%——6.25%——12.50%
16.25%6.25%12.50%6.25%—6.25%37.50%
26.25%12.50%6.25%———25.00%
36.25%6.25%————12.50%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total37.50%25.00%18.75%12.50%—6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.50 +0.44
SD 1.73 2.03 3.12
CV 0.89 1.36 —
Max 7 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%18.75%12.50%6.25%—43.75%
1—12.50%—6.25%——18.75%
212.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4———————
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total18.75%31.25%25.00%18.75%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.62 -0.38
SD 1.61 1.20 2.55
CV 1.29 0.74 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%————6.25%
1—6.25%————6.25%
2———————
36.25%25.00%————31.25%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+31.25%18.75%————50.00%
Total37.50%62.50%————100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.81 0.62 +4.19
SD 2.76 0.50 2.99
CV 0.57 0.80 —
Max 10 1 +10
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%————6.25%
16.25%——12.50%6.25%—25.00%
218.75%6.25%6.25%———31.25%
3—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+18.75%—————18.75%
Total43.75%25.00%12.50%12.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.81 1.12 +1.69
SD 2.48 1.31 3.28
CV 0.88 1.16 —
Max 10 4 +10
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——6.25%6.25%12.50%43.75%68.75%
1————6.25%6.25%12.50%
2———6.25%6.25%6.25%18.75%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total——6.25%12.50%25.00%56.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.50 6.19 -5.69
SD 0.82 2.88 3.11
CV 1.63 0.47 —
Max 2 11 -1
Min 0 2 -11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——18.75%——12.50%31.25%
1—18.75%——6.25%6.25%31.25%
212.50%6.25%—6.25%——25.00%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+———————
Total12.50%31.25%25.00%6.25%6.25%18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 2.38 -1.12
SD 1.18 2.09 2.80
CV 0.95 0.88 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Partizani 1998 20 18.45 +1.55 87.0% 13 15 17 18 20 22 22
Dinamo Tirana 1894 20 16.65 +3.35 96.0% 12 12 15 17 18 20 22
Shkodra 1630 17 16.14 +0.86 75.0% 12 12 15 16 17 19 22
KF Tirana 1476 6 6.91 -0.91 43.0% 2 3 5 7 8 12 14
Korca 1410 10 9.88 +0.12 59.0% 4 5 8 10 12 14 17
Lezhe 1315 11 12.45 -1.45 42.0% 5 8 10 12 15 17 19
Kavaja 1279 13 10.35 +2.65 88.0% 4 6 8 10 12 14 18
Vlora 1238 11 12.30 -1.30 41.0% 8 8 10 12 14 16 20
Elbasani 1163 8 5.48 +2.52 87.0% 0 2 3 5 7 10 12
Durres 1111 10 9.62 +0.38 61.0% 3 5 8 10 11 15 15
Fieri 950 6 8.99 -2.99 16.0% 2 5 7 9 11 13 14
Spartaku Pogradec 542 0 4.78 -4.78 1.0% 0 1 3 4 6 9 12

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 27% * Slight Edge: 27% to 33% * Clear Edge: 33% to 40% * Strong Edge: 40% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+25.00%
No Edge
56.25%12.50%31.25%
Elo Value
Home Edge
121 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
088.74400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.93 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.73+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.04 * Tight Race: 0.04 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
18%
Dinamo Tirana, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2 * Some Luck: 2 to 3 * Lucky: 3 to 4 * Wild Swing: 4 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.1 * Close: 1.1 to 1.65 * Off: 1.65 to 2.2 * Way Off: 2.2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.31 points
Some Luck
02.506
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.83
Pinpoint
01.373
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
96.00%
Dinamo Tirana
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.00%
Spartaku Pogradec
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 77.5% * Wide Edge: 77.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 93% * Strong Edge: 93% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59.5% * Some Drama: 59.5% to 66.5% * Frequent: 66.5% to 72.5% * Very Frequent: 72.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 10.5% * Occasional: 10.5% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 17.5% * Very Frequent: 17.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.29
Lopsided
00.120.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 319.91
1.90
Strong Separation
0.91.351.82.153
Interquartile Edge
87%
Wide Edge
50%63.5%72.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
32%
Few
0%30%100%
Blowouts
Expected
41%
Very Frequent
0%51%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.56 * Notable Separation: 0.56 to 0.62 * Lopsided: 0.62 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.41 * Some Carryover: 0.41 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14.5% * Upset-Prone: 14.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 10.5% * As Expected: 10.5% to 12.5% * Shaky Favorites: 12.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.38
Highly Predictable
00.422
Matchup Imbalance
0.64
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.96
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.49
Some Carryover
00.410.590.731
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
As Expected
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
As Expected
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.77
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.16
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.061
Well Within Noise
00.1360.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Dinamo Tirana18.00%35.00%28.00%11.00%7.00%1.00%——————
Partizani70.00%21.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%———————
Shkodra10.00%31.00%34.00%20.00%4.00%1.00%——————
Kavaja—1.00%3.00%13.00%15.00%18.00%15.00%15.00%14.00%2.00%3.00%1.00%
Lezhe1.00%8.00%13.00%23.00%15.00%12.00%12.00%9.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%—
Vlora1.00%4.00%9.00%15.00%28.00%17.00%11.00%9.00%4.00%2.00%——
Korca——5.00%6.00%8.00%21.00%15.00%13.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%2.00%
Durres——2.00%4.00%14.00%9.00%26.00%15.00%12.00%11.00%6.00%1.00%
Elbasani————1.00%1.00%4.00%10.00%5.00%20.00%27.00%32.00%
Fieri———5.00%4.00%13.00%11.00%21.00%18.00%18.00%6.00%4.00%
KF Tirana———1.00%2.00%7.00%5.00%6.00%22.00%25.00%21.00%11.00%
Spartaku Pogradec————1.00%—1.00%2.00%6.00%10.00%31.00%49.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Dinamo Tirana 100% —
Kavaja 100% —
Korca 100% —
Partizani 100% —
Shkodra 100% —
Vlora 100% —
Lezhe 99.00% 1.00%
Durres 98.00% 2.00%
Fieri 95.00% 5.00%
KF Tirana 92.00% 8.00%
Elbasani 90.00% 10.00%
Spartaku Pogradec 26.00% 74.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1950-04-01 Lezhe W 3-035.1 1293 1293 60.76% 13.25% 25.99%+0.73 +101.9 2
1950-04-01 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-335.1 1293 1293 25.99% 13.25% 60.76%-0.73 -101.9 0
1950-04-01 Kavaja D 1-157.5 1455 1305 74.01% 13.21% 12.78%+1.97 -20.3 1
1950-04-01 @ Vlora D 1-157.5 1305 1455 12.78% 13.21% 74.01%-1.97 +20.3 1
1950-04-01 KF Tirana W 2-141.1 1358 1342 62.59% 13.25% 24.16%+0.87 +32.8 2
1950-04-01 @ Durres L 1-241.1 1342 1358 24.16% 13.25% 62.59%-0.87 -32.8 0
1950-04-01 Fieri W 2-035.0 1191 1177 62.28% 13.25% 24.47%+0.84 +66.4 2
1950-04-01 @ Lezhe L 0-235.0 1177 1191 24.47% 13.25% 62.28%-0.84 -66.4 0
1950-04-01 Elbasani L 2-456.9 1293 1166 72.41% 13.22% 14.37%+1.77 -139.9 0
1950-04-01 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 4-256.9 1166 1293 14.37% 13.22% 72.41%-1.77 +139.9 2
1950-04-01 Shkodra D 2-262.3 1258 1556 22.50% 13.22% 64.28%-1.73 +10.0 3
1950-04-01 @ Lezhe D 2-262.3 1556 1258 64.28% 13.22% 22.50%+1.73 -10.0 1
1950-04-08 Durres W 5-035.9 1395 1391 61.19% 13.25% 25.56%+0.76 +161.6 4
1950-04-08 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-535.9 1391 1395 25.56% 13.25% 61.19%-0.76 -161.6 2
1950-04-08 Korca W 2-135.0 1434 1165 80.02% 13.15% 6.83%+2.95 +9.9 3
1950-04-08 @ Vlora L 1-235.0 1165 1434 6.83% 13.15% 80.02%-2.95 -9.9 0
1950-04-08 Partizani L 0-638.1 1309 1602 23.03% 13.22% 63.75%-1.69 -174.4 0
1950-04-08 @ KF Tirana W 6-038.1 1602 1309 63.75% 13.22% 23.03%+1.69 +174.4 2
1950-04-08 KF Tirana W 2-140.7 1111 1134 58.04% 13.25% 28.70%+0.54 +38.4 2
1950-04-08 @ Fieri L 1-240.7 1134 1111 28.70% 13.25% 58.04%-0.54 -38.4 0
1950-04-08 Elbasani W 2-035.9 1325 1306 62.84% 13.25% 23.91%+0.89 +65.0 3
1950-04-08 @ Kavaja L 0-235.9 1306 1325 23.91% 13.25% 62.84%-0.89 -65.0 2
1950-04-08 Vlora W 2-044.4 1268 1444 37.21% 13.25% 49.53%-0.73 +124.4 5
1950-04-08 @ Lezhe L 0-244.4 1444 1268 49.53% 13.25% 37.21%+0.73 -124.4 3
1950-04-15 Shkodra L 0-133.1 1096 1546 10.72% 13.15% 76.13%-2.98 -16.3 0
1950-04-15 @ KF Tirana W 1-033.1 1546 1096 76.13% 13.15% 10.72%+2.98 +16.2 3
1950-04-15 Spartaku Pogradec W 3-034.3 1155 1153 61.00% 13.25% 25.74%+0.75 +101.0 2
1950-04-15 @ Korca L 0-334.3 1153 1155 25.74% 13.25% 61.00%-0.75 -101.0 0
1950-04-15 Partizani L 1-442.4 1229 1777 6.41% 13.08% 80.50%-3.78 -22.8 2
1950-04-15 @ Durres W 4-142.4 1777 1229 80.50% 13.08% 6.41%+3.78 +22.8 4
1950-04-15 Dinamo Tirana L 0-132.7 1080 1556 9.35% 13.13% 77.52%-3.20 -14.2 0
1950-04-15 @ KF Tirana W 1-032.7 1556 1080 77.52% 13.13% 9.35%+3.20 +14.2 6
1950-04-15 Dinamo Tirana L 0-237.3 1241 1571 19.54% 13.21% 67.25%-1.98 -54.0 2
1950-04-15 @ Elbasani W 2-037.3 1571 1241 67.25% 13.21% 19.54%+1.98 +54.0 8
1950-04-15 Kavaja W 3-148.2 1800 1390 83.78% 13.05% 3.16%+4.10 +8.1 6
1950-04-15 @ Partizani L 1-348.2 1390 1800 3.16% 13.05% 83.78%-4.10 -8.1 3
1950-04-22 Spartaku Pogradec W 10-025.5 1563 1052 85.25% 12.96% 1.79%+4.94 +24.0 5
1950-04-22 @ Shkodra L 0-1025.5 1052 1563 1.79% 12.96% 85.25%-4.94 -24.0 0
1950-04-22 Elbasani W 2-036.8 1149 1187 56.26% 13.26% 30.49%+0.42 +81.0 4
1950-04-22 @ Fieri L 0-236.8 1187 1149 30.49% 13.26% 56.26%-0.42 -81.0 2
1950-04-22 Shkodra L 1-434.8 1106 1587 9.17% 13.13% 77.70%-3.23 -32.3 2
1950-04-22 @ Elbasani W 4-134.8 1587 1106 77.70% 13.13% 9.17%+3.23 +32.3 7
1950-04-22 Korca W 8-139.1 1808 1256 85.66% 12.92% 1.42%+5.28 +11.2 8
1950-04-22 @ Partizani L 1-839.1 1256 1808 1.42% 12.92% 85.66%-5.28 -11.2 2
1950-04-22 Durres L 1-251.3 1230 1207 63.34% 13.25% 23.41%+0.93 -78.6 4
1950-04-22 @ Fieri W 2-151.3 1207 1230 23.41% 13.25% 63.34%-0.93 +78.6 4
1950-04-22 Partizani W 1-063.5 1625 1819 34.87% 13.25% 51.88%-0.87 +68.8 10
1950-04-22 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-163.5 1819 1625 51.88% 13.25% 34.87%+0.87 -68.8 8
1950-04-29 KF Tirana W 4-132.6 1320 1065 79.45% 13.16% 7.39%+2.83 +26.2 5
1950-04-29 @ Vlora L 1-432.6 1065 1320 7.39% 13.16% 79.45%-2.83 -26.2 0
1950-04-29 Vlora L 2-342.2 1028 1346 20.59% 13.21% 66.19%-1.89 -26.9 0
1950-04-29 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 3-242.2 1346 1028 66.19% 13.21% 20.59%+1.89 +26.9 7
1950-04-29 Kavaja W 2-040.0 1619 1382 78.70% 13.17% 8.13%+2.68 +23.5 9
1950-04-29 @ Shkodra L 0-240.0 1382 1619 8.13% 13.17% 78.70%-2.68 -23.5 3
1950-04-29 Fieri W 7-029.3 1693 1152 85.57% 12.93% 1.50%+5.20 +14.3 12
1950-04-29 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-729.3 1152 1693 1.50% 12.93% 85.57%-5.20 -14.3 4
1950-04-29 Vlora D 1-156.1 1285 1373 49.73% 13.26% 37.01%+0.01 -3.9 5
1950-04-29 @ Durres D 1-156.1 1373 1285 37.01% 13.26% 49.73%-0.01 +3.9 8
1950-04-29 Dinamo Tirana L 0-163.2 1642 1708 52.76% 13.26% 33.99%+0.19 -69.9 9
1950-04-29 @ Shkodra W 1-063.2 1708 1642 33.99% 13.26% 52.76%-0.19 +69.9 14
1950-05-06 Korca L 1-246.3 1137 1245 46.98% 13.26% 39.76%-0.16 -59.3 4
1950-05-06 @ Fieri W 2-146.3 1245 1137 39.76% 13.26% 46.98%+0.16 +59.3 4
1950-05-06 Spartaku Pogradec W 4-131.6 1359 1001 82.69% 13.09% 4.22%+3.68 +15.2 5
1950-05-06 @ Kavaja L 1-431.6 1001 1359 4.22% 13.09% 82.69%-3.68 -15.2 0
1950-05-06 Partizani L 0-346.4 1392 1750 17.04% 13.20% 69.76%-2.22 -69.0 5
1950-05-06 @ Lezhe W 3-046.4 1750 1392 69.76% 13.20% 17.04%+2.22 +69.0 10
1950-05-06 Elbasani D 1-155.0 1377 1074 81.18% 13.13% 5.69%+3.23 -25.7 9
1950-05-06 @ Vlora D 1-155.0 1074 1377 5.69% 13.13% 81.18%-3.23 +25.7 3
1950-05-06 Shkodra L 1-245.4 1304 1573 25.79% 13.23% 60.98%-1.48 -34.8 4
1950-05-06 @ Korca W 2-145.4 1573 1304 60.98% 13.23% 25.79%+1.48 +34.8 11
1950-05-06 KF Tirana D 0-052.1 1374 1039 82.11% 13.11% 4.78%+3.49 -29.6 6
1950-05-06 @ Kavaja D 0-052.1 1039 1374 4.78% 13.11% 82.11%-3.49 +29.5 1
1950-05-13 Vlora W 4-145.6 1778 1351 84.08% 13.04% 2.88%+4.24 +10.4 16
1950-05-13 @ Dinamo Tirana L 1-445.6 1351 1778 2.88% 13.04% 84.08%-4.24 -10.4 9
1950-05-13 Shkodra W 3-153.2 1819 1607 77.54% 13.18% 9.28%+2.48 +23.1 12
1950-05-13 @ Partizani L 1-353.2 1607 1819 9.28% 13.18% 77.54%-2.48 -23.1 11
1950-05-13 Durres L 0-234.5 986 1281 22.86% 13.22% 63.91%-1.70 -62.4 0
1950-05-13 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 2-034.5 1281 986 63.91% 13.22% 22.86%+1.70 +62.4 7
1950-05-13 Lezhe L 0-628.7 924 1323 13.92% 13.18% 72.90%-2.56 -109.1 0
1950-05-13 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 6-028.7 1323 924 72.90% 13.18% 13.92%+2.56 +109.1 7
1950-05-13 Kavaja W 2-143.6 1270 1344 51.51% 13.26% 35.23%+0.12 +46.1 6
1950-05-13 @ Korca L 1-243.6 1344 1270 35.23% 13.26% 51.51%-0.12 -46.1 6
1950-05-13 Durres W 5-034.6 1584 1344 78.86% 13.17% 7.97%+2.71 +53.9 13
1950-05-13 @ Shkodra L 0-534.6 1344 1584 7.97% 13.17% 78.86%-2.71 -53.9 7
1950-05-20 Kavaja L 1-241.6 1078 1298 31.50% 13.24% 55.26%-1.08 -41.7 4
1950-05-20 @ Fieri W 2-141.6 1298 1078 55.26% 13.24% 31.50%+1.08 +41.7 8
1950-05-20 Durres W 2-138.2 1432 1290 73.51% 13.21% 13.28%+1.90 +18.8 9
1950-05-20 @ Lezhe L 1-238.2 1290 1432 13.28% 13.21% 73.51%-1.90 -18.8 7
1950-05-20 Korca W 3-040.7 1788 1316 84.78% 13.00% 2.22%+4.62 +9.5 18
1950-05-20 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-340.7 1316 1788 2.22% 13.00% 84.78%-4.62 -9.5 6
1950-05-20 Partizani L 0-533.3 1100 1842 2.18% 12.91% 84.91%-5.39 -15.0 3
1950-05-20 @ Elbasani W 5-033.3 1842 1100 84.91% 12.91% 2.18%+5.39 +15.0 14
1950-05-20 Fieri W 2-029.4 1341 1036 81.23% 13.13% 5.64%+3.24 +16.5 11
1950-05-20 @ Vlora L 0-229.4 1036 1341 5.64% 13.13% 81.23%-3.24 -16.5 4
1950-05-20 Elbasani W 4-028.9 1271 1085 76.21% 13.19% 10.59%+2.27 +57.5 9
1950-05-20 @ Durres L 0-428.9 1085 1271 10.59% 13.19% 76.21%-2.27 -57.5 3
1950-05-27 Vlora W 2-039.2 1638 1357 80.44% 13.14% 6.42%+3.04 +18.7 15
1950-05-27 @ Shkodra L 0-239.2 1357 1638 6.42% 13.14% 80.44%-3.04 -18.7 11
1950-05-27 Elbasani L 0-148.2 1069 1027 65.17% 13.24% 21.59%+1.07 -85.8 1
1950-05-27 @ KF Tirana W 1-048.2 1027 1069 21.59% 13.24% 65.17%-1.07 +85.8 5
1950-05-27 Vlora W 7-143.9 1857 1339 85.33% 12.95% 1.71%+5.00 +11.6 16
1950-05-27 @ Partizani L 1-743.9 1339 1857 1.71% 12.95% 85.33%-5.00 -11.6 11
1950-05-27 Dinamo Tirana L 0-1125.0 815 1798 0.56% 12.61% 86.83%-7.37 -8.2 0
1950-05-27 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 11-025.0 1798 815 86.83% 12.61% 0.56%+7.37 +8.2 20
1950-05-27 Lezhe D 1-157.4 1306 1451 41.71% 13.26% 45.03%-0.46 +1.0 7
1950-05-27 @ Korca D 1-157.4 1451 1306 45.03% 13.26% 41.71%+0.46 -1.0 10
1950-05-27 Kavaja D 1-156.2 1329 1340 59.45% 13.25% 27.29%+0.64 -10.2 10
1950-05-27 @ Durres D 1-156.2 1340 1329 27.29% 13.25% 59.45%-0.64 +10.2 9
1950-06-03 Fieri W 6-026.2 1657 1020 86.30% 12.83% 0.88%+5.98 +7.2 17
1950-06-03 @ Shkodra L 0-626.2 1020 1657 0.88% 12.83% 86.30%-5.98 -7.2 4
1950-06-03 Lezhe W 1-049.8 1113 1450 18.87% 13.21% 67.92%-2.04 +89.5 7
1950-06-03 @ Elbasani L 0-149.8 1450 1113 67.92% 13.21% 18.87%+2.04 -89.5 10
1950-06-03 Fieri W 8-132.1 1869 1013 87.21% 12.54% 0.25%+7.79 +2.0 18
1950-06-03 @ Partizani L 1-832.1 1013 1869 0.25% 12.54% 87.21%-7.79 -2.0 4
1950-06-03 Lezhe W 2-037.7 1350 1360 59.60% 13.25% 27.14%+0.65 +73.0 11
1950-06-03 @ Kavaja L 0-237.7 1360 1350 27.14% 13.25% 59.60%-0.65 -73.0 10
1950-06-03 Korca D 2-258.8 1202 1307 47.41% 13.26% 39.33%-0.13 -1.8 8
1950-06-03 @ Elbasani D 2-258.8 1307 1202 39.33% 13.26% 47.41%+0.13 +1.8 8
1950-06-03 Spartaku Pogradec W 9-231.0 983 806 75.65% 13.20% 11.15%+2.19 +69.2 3
1950-06-03 @ KF Tirana L 2-931.0 806 983 11.15% 13.20% 75.65%-2.19 -69.2 0
1950-06-10 Spartaku Pogradec W 8-128.4 1011 737 80.18% 13.15% 6.67%+2.99 +51.3 6
1950-06-10 @ Fieri L 1-828.4 737 1011 6.67% 13.15% 80.18%-2.99 -51.4 0
1950-06-10 KF Tirana D 1-154.8 1287 1052 78.63% 13.17% 8.19%+2.67 -23.8 11
1950-06-10 @ Lezhe D 1-154.8 1052 1287 8.19% 13.17% 78.63%-2.67 +23.8 4
1950-06-10 Durres W 3-140.5 1309 1318 59.69% 13.25% 27.06%+0.65 +63.0 10
1950-06-10 @ Korca L 1-340.5 1318 1309 27.06% 13.25% 59.69%-0.65 -63.0 10
1950-06-10 Dinamo Tirana W 3-274.2 1423 1806 15.12% 13.19% 71.70%-2.42 +84.7 13
1950-06-10 @ Kavaja L 2-374.2 1806 1423 71.70% 13.19% 15.12%+2.42 -84.7 20
1950-06-10 Korca W 3-150.7 1076 1372 22.78% 13.22% 64.00%-1.71 +137.6 6
1950-06-10 @ KF Tirana L 1-350.7 1372 1076 64.00% 13.22% 22.78%+1.71 -137.6 10
1950-06-10 Spartaku Pogradec W 10-024.3 1871 686 87.98% 11.98% 0.04%+10.50 +0.5 20
1950-06-10 @ Partizani L 0-1024.3 686 1871 0.04% 11.98% 87.98%-10.50 -0.5 0

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1950-06-24 Fieri D 1-154.7 1201 1062 73.26% 13.22% 13.53%+1.87 -19.8 1
1950-06-24 @ Elbasani D 1-154.7 1062 1201 13.53% 13.22% 73.26%-1.87 +19.8 1
1950-06-24 Lezhe W 2-035.8 1664 1264 83.62% 13.06% 3.32%+4.03 +9.8 2
1950-06-24 @ Shkodra L 0-235.8 1264 1664 3.32% 13.06% 83.62%-4.03 -9.8 0
1950-06-24 Spartaku Pogradec W 4-026.1 1181 685 85.07% 12.98% 1.95%+4.81 +11.0 3
1950-06-24 @ Elbasani L 0-426.1 685 1181 1.95% 12.98% 85.07%-4.81 -11.0 0
1950-06-24 Korca L 0-725.9 674 1234 5.99% 13.07% 80.94%-3.88 -56.1 0
1950-06-24 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 7-025.9 1234 674 80.94% 13.07% 5.99%+3.88 +56.1 2
1950-06-24 Lezhe W 2-033.9 1327 1254 68.15% 13.24% 18.62%+1.34 +51.6 2
1950-06-24 @ Vlora L 0-233.9 1254 1327 18.62% 13.24% 68.15%-1.34 -51.6 0
1950-06-24 Fieri W 4-134.6 1213 1082 72.78% 13.22% 14.01%+1.82 +48.4 2
1950-06-24 @ KF Tirana L 1-434.6 1082 1213 14.01% 13.22% 72.78%-1.82 -48.4 1
1950-07-01 Lezhe W 3-144.0 1871 1202 86.48% 12.79% 0.73%+6.25 +1.9 2
1950-07-01 @ Partizani L 1-344.0 1202 1871 0.73% 12.79% 86.48%-6.25 -1.9 0
1950-07-01 Fieri W 4-027.8 1290 1033 79.55% 13.16% 7.29%+2.85 +40.1 4
1950-07-01 @ Korca L 0-427.8 1033 1290 7.29% 13.16% 79.55%-2.85 -40.2 1
1950-07-01 Korca D 0-052.7 1255 1331 51.44% 13.26% 35.30%+0.11 -5.6 1
1950-07-01 @ Durres D 0-052.7 1331 1255 35.30% 13.26% 51.44%-0.11 +5.6 5
1950-07-01 Vlora W 2-037.8 1508 1379 72.60% 13.22% 14.18%+1.80 +40.0 2
1950-07-01 @ Kavaja L 0-237.8 1379 1508 14.18% 13.22% 72.60%-1.80 -40.0 2
1950-07-01 Dinamo Tirana L 0-434.9 1200 1721 7.40% 13.10% 79.50%-3.56 -40.7 0
1950-07-01 @ Lezhe W 4-034.9 1721 1200 79.50% 13.10% 7.40%+3.56 +40.7 2
1950-07-01 Durres W 4-138.2 1262 1250 62.11% 13.25% 24.64%+0.83 +81.8 4
1950-07-01 @ KF Tirana L 1-438.2 1250 1262 24.64% 13.25% 62.11%-0.83 -81.8 1
1950-07-08 Durres L 1-342.5 993 1168 37.52% 13.25% 49.23%-0.71 -84.3 1
1950-07-08 @ Fieri W 3-142.5 1168 993 49.23% 13.25% 37.52%+0.71 +84.3 3
1950-07-08 Kavaja W 3-154.8 1160 1548 14.70% 13.18% 72.11%-2.47 +155.6 2
1950-07-08 @ Lezhe L 1-354.8 1548 1160 72.11% 13.18% 14.70%+2.47 -155.6 2
1950-07-08 KF Tirana L 0-824.7 618 1344 2.40% 12.92% 84.68%-5.25 -25.8 0
1950-07-08 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 8-024.7 1344 618 84.68% 12.92% 2.40%+5.25 +25.8 6
1950-07-08 Elbasani W 2-032.0 1336 1192 73.65% 13.21% 13.14%+1.92 +37.2 7
1950-07-08 @ Korca L 0-232.0 1192 1336 13.14% 13.21% 73.65%-1.92 -37.2 3
1950-07-08 Dinamo Tirana D 1-174.5 1873 1762 71.30% 13.22% 15.48%+1.65 -18.4 3
1950-07-08 @ Partizani D 1-174.5 1762 1873 15.48% 13.22% 71.30%-1.65 +18.4 3
1950-07-08 Shkodra L 1-350.9 1392 1674 24.31% 13.23% 62.47%-1.59 -57.1 2
1950-07-08 @ Kavaja W 3-150.9 1674 1392 62.47% 13.23% 24.31%+1.59 +57.1 4
1950-07-15 Kavaja W 6-039.2 1780 1335 84.39% 13.02% 2.59%+4.40 +21.3 5
1950-07-15 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-639.2 1335 1780 2.59% 13.02% 84.39%-4.40 -21.3 2
1950-07-15 KF Tirana W 1-038.9 1373 1370 61.19% 13.25% 25.56%+0.76 +36.6 9
1950-07-15 @ Korca L 0-138.9 1370 1373 25.56% 13.25% 61.19%-0.76 -36.6 6
1950-07-15 Elbasani L 1-352.5 1252 1155 70.21% 13.23% 16.56%+1.54 -151.3 3
1950-07-15 @ Durres W 3-152.5 1155 1252 16.56% 13.23% 70.21%-1.54 +151.4 5
1950-07-15 Vlora W 6-041.1 1855 1339 85.31% 12.96% 1.74%+4.98 +14.3 5
1950-07-15 @ Partizani L 0-641.1 1339 1855 1.74% 12.96% 85.31%-4.98 -14.3 2
1950-07-15 KF Tirana L 0-246.1 1306 1333 57.60% 13.26% 29.14%+0.51 -143.3 5
1950-07-15 @ Elbasani W 2-046.1 1333 1306 29.14% 13.26% 57.60%-0.51 +143.3 8
1950-07-15 Dinamo Tirana L 0-542.0 1324 1801 9.34% 13.13% 77.53%-3.20 -62.8 2
1950-07-15 @ Vlora W 5-042.0 1801 1324 77.53% 13.13% 9.34%+3.20 +62.8 7
1950-07-22 Spartaku Pogradec W 4-026.0 1101 592 85.22% 12.96% 1.81%+4.92 +10.2 5
1950-07-22 @ Durres L 0-426.0 592 1101 1.81% 12.96% 85.22%-4.92 -10.2 0
1950-07-22 Partizani L 1-363.8 1731 1869 42.65% 13.26% 44.10%-0.41 -94.3 4
1950-07-22 @ Shkodra W 3-163.8 1869 1731 44.10% 13.26% 42.65%+0.41 +94.3 7
1950-07-22 Shkodra W 4-152.3 1864 1637 78.29% 13.17% 8.54%+2.61 +30.2 9
1950-07-22 @ Dinamo Tirana L 1-452.3 1637 1864 8.54% 13.17% 78.29%-2.61 -30.2 4
1950-07-22 Spartaku Pogradec W 6-025.9 909 582 81.89% 13.11% 5.00%+3.42 +40.6 3
1950-07-22 @ Fieri L 0-625.9 582 909 5.00% 13.11% 81.89%-3.42 -40.6 0
1950-07-22 Partizani L 0-743.0 1314 1963 3.66% 13.00% 83.34%-4.62 -34.6 2
1950-07-22 @ Kavaja W 7-043.0 1963 1314 83.34% 13.00% 3.66%+4.62 +34.6 9
1950-07-22 Shkodra L 2-346.7 1262 1606 18.17% 13.20% 68.63%-2.11 -23.9 2
1950-07-22 @ Vlora W 3-246.7 1606 1262 68.63% 13.20% 18.17%+2.11 +23.9 6

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1950-04-01 14.37% Elbasani 1166 4 @ Spartaku Pogradec 1293 2
2 1950-07-08 14.70% @ Lezhe 1160 3 Kavaja 1548 1
3 1950-06-10 15.12% @ Kavaja 1423 3 Dinamo Tirana 1806 2
4 1950-07-15 16.56% Elbasani 1155 3 @ Durres 1252 1
5 1950-06-03 18.87% @ Elbasani 1113 1 Lezhe 1450 0
6 1950-05-27 21.59% Elbasani 1027 1 @ KF Tirana 1069 0
7 1950-06-10 22.78% @ KF Tirana 1076 3 Korca 1372 1
8 1950-04-22 23.41% Durres 1207 2 @ Fieri 1230 1
9 1950-07-15 29.14% KF Tirana 1333 2 @ Elbasani 1306 0
10 1950-04-29 33.99% Dinamo Tirana 1708 1 @ Shkodra 1642 0
11 1950-04-22 34.87% @ Dinamo Tirana 1625 1 Partizani 1819 0
12 1950-04-08 37.21% @ Lezhe 1268 2 Vlora 1444 0
13 1950-05-06 39.76% Korca 1245 2 @ Fieri 1137 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-04-08 174.41 Partizani 6 1602 63.75% @ KF Tirana 0 1309 23.03% 13.22%
2 1950-04-08 161.58 @ Dinamo Tirana 5 1395 61.19% Durres 0 1391 25.56% 13.25%
3 1950-07-08 155.62 @ Lezhe 3 1160 14.70% Kavaja 1 1548 72.11% 13.18%
4 1950-07-15 151.35 Elbasani 3 1155 16.56% @ Durres 1 1252 70.21% 13.23%
5 1950-07-15 143.27 KF Tirana 2 1333 29.14% @ Elbasani 0 1306 57.60% 13.26%
6 1950-04-01 139.86 Elbasani 4 1166 14.37% @ Spartaku Pogradec 2 1293 72.41% 13.22%
7 1950-06-10 137.60 @ KF Tirana 3 1076 22.78% Korca 1 1372 64.00% 13.22%
8 1950-04-08 124.38 @ Lezhe 2 1268 37.21% Vlora 0 1444 49.53% 13.25%
9 1950-05-13 109.11 Lezhe 6 1323 72.90% @ Spartaku Pogradec 0 924 13.92% 13.18%
10 1950-04-01 101.87 @ Dinamo Tirana 3 1293 60.76% Lezhe 0 1293 25.99% 13.25%
11 1950-04-15 101.00 @ Korca 3 1155 61.00% Spartaku Pogradec 0 1153 25.74% 13.25%
12 1950-07-22 94.33 Partizani 3 1869 44.10% @ Shkodra 1 1731 42.65% 13.26%
13 1950-06-03 89.53 @ Elbasani 1 1113 18.87% Lezhe 0 1450 67.92% 13.21%
14 1950-05-27 85.84 Elbasani 1 1027 21.59% @ KF Tirana 0 1069 65.17% 13.24%
15 1950-06-10 84.72 @ Kavaja 3 1423 15.12% Dinamo Tirana 2 1806 71.70% 13.19%
16 1950-07-08 84.34 Durres 3 1168 49.23% @ Fieri 1 993 37.52% 13.25%
17 1950-07-01 81.85 @ KF Tirana 4 1262 62.11% Durres 1 1250 24.64% 13.25%
18 1950-04-22 81.00 @ Fieri 2 1149 56.26% Elbasani 0 1187 30.49% 13.26%
19 1950-04-22 78.64 Durres 2 1207 23.41% @ Fieri 1 1230 63.34% 13.25%
20 1950-06-03 72.96 @ Kavaja 2 1350 59.60% Lezhe 0 1360 27.14% 13.25%
21 1950-04-29 69.91 Dinamo Tirana 1 1708 33.99% @ Shkodra 0 1642 52.76% 13.26%
22 1950-06-03 69.20 @ KF Tirana 9 983 75.65% Spartaku Pogradec 2 806 11.15% 13.20%
23 1950-05-06 69.01 Partizani 3 1750 69.76% @ Lezhe 0 1392 17.04% 13.20%
24 1950-04-22 68.83 @ Dinamo Tirana 1 1625 34.87% Partizani 0 1819 51.88% 13.25%
25 1950-04-01 66.41 @ Lezhe 2 1191 62.28% Fieri 0 1177 24.47% 13.25%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-07-08 74.5 @ Partizani 1 1873 71.30% Dinamo Tirana 1 1762 15.48% 13.22%
2 1950-06-10 74.2 @ Kavaja 3 1423 15.12% Dinamo Tirana 2 1806 71.70% 13.19%
3 1950-07-22 63.8 Partizani 3 1869 44.10% @ Shkodra 1 1731 42.65% 13.26%
4 1950-04-22 63.5 @ Dinamo Tirana 1 1625 34.87% Partizani 0 1819 51.88% 13.25%
5 1950-04-29 63.2 Dinamo Tirana 1 1708 33.99% @ Shkodra 0 1642 52.76% 13.26%
6 1950-04-01 62.3 @ Lezhe 2 1258 22.50% Shkodra 2 1556 64.28% 13.22%
7 1950-06-03 58.8 @ Elbasani 2 1202 47.41% Korca 2 1307 39.33% 13.26%
8 1950-04-01 57.5 @ Vlora 1 1455 74.01% Kavaja 1 1305 12.78% 13.21%
9 1950-05-27 57.4 @ Korca 1 1306 41.71% Lezhe 1 1451 45.03% 13.26%
10 1950-04-01 56.9 Elbasani 4 1166 14.37% @ Spartaku Pogradec 2 1293 72.41% 13.22%
11 1950-05-27 56.2 @ Durres 1 1329 59.45% Kavaja 1 1340 27.29% 13.25%
12 1950-04-29 56.1 @ Durres 1 1285 49.73% Vlora 1 1373 37.01% 13.26%
13 1950-05-06 55.0 @ Vlora 1 1377 81.18% Elbasani 1 1074 5.69% 13.13%
14 1950-06-10 54.8 @ Lezhe 1 1287 78.63% KF Tirana 1 1052 8.19% 13.17%
15 1950-07-08 54.8 @ Lezhe 3 1160 14.70% Kavaja 1 1548 72.11% 13.18%
16 1950-06-24 54.7 @ Elbasani 1 1201 73.26% Fieri 1 1062 13.53% 13.22%
17 1950-05-13 53.2 @ Partizani 3 1819 77.54% Shkodra 1 1607 9.28% 13.18%
18 1950-07-01 52.7 @ Durres 0 1255 51.44% Korca 0 1331 35.30% 13.26%
19 1950-07-15 52.5 Elbasani 3 1155 16.56% @ Durres 1 1252 70.21% 13.23%
20 1950-07-22 52.3 @ Dinamo Tirana 4 1864 78.29% Shkodra 1 1637 8.54% 13.17%
21 1950-05-06 52.1 @ Kavaja 0 1374 82.11% KF Tirana 0 1039 4.78% 13.11%
22 1950-04-22 51.3 Durres 2 1207 23.41% @ Fieri 1 1230 63.34% 13.25%
23 1950-07-08 50.9 Shkodra 3 1674 62.47% @ Kavaja 1 1392 24.31% 13.23%
24 1950-06-10 50.7 @ KF Tirana 3 1076 22.78% Korca 1 1372 64.00% 13.22%
25 1950-06-03 49.8 @ Elbasani 1 1113 18.87% Lezhe 0 1450 67.92% 13.21%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-06-10 24.3 @ Partizani 10 1871 87.98% Spartaku Pogradec 0 686 0.04% 11.98%
2 1950-07-08 24.7 KF Tirana 8 1344 84.68% @ Spartaku Pogradec 0 618 2.40% 12.92%
3 1950-05-27 25.0 Dinamo Tirana 11 1798 86.83% @ Spartaku Pogradec 0 815 0.56% 12.61%
4 1950-04-22 25.5 @ Shkodra 10 1563 85.25% Spartaku Pogradec 0 1052 1.79% 12.96%
5 1950-06-24 25.9 Korca 7 1234 80.94% @ Spartaku Pogradec 0 674 5.99% 13.07%
6 1950-07-22 25.9 @ Fieri 6 909 81.89% Spartaku Pogradec 0 582 5.00% 13.11%
7 1950-07-22 26.0 @ Durres 4 1101 85.22% Spartaku Pogradec 0 592 1.81% 12.96%
8 1950-06-24 26.1 @ Elbasani 4 1181 85.07% Spartaku Pogradec 0 685 1.95% 12.98%
9 1950-06-03 26.2 @ Shkodra 6 1657 86.30% Fieri 0 1020 0.88% 12.83%
10 1950-07-01 27.8 @ Korca 4 1290 79.55% Fieri 0 1033 7.29% 13.16%
11 1950-06-10 28.4 @ Fieri 8 1011 80.18% Spartaku Pogradec 1 737 6.67% 13.15%
12 1950-05-13 28.7 Lezhe 6 1323 72.90% @ Spartaku Pogradec 0 924 13.92% 13.18%
13 1950-05-20 28.9 @ Durres 4 1271 76.21% Elbasani 0 1085 10.59% 13.19%
14 1950-04-29 29.3 @ Dinamo Tirana 7 1693 85.57% Fieri 0 1152 1.50% 12.93%
15 1950-05-20 29.4 @ Vlora 2 1341 81.23% Fieri 0 1036 5.64% 13.13%
16 1950-06-03 31.0 @ KF Tirana 9 983 75.65% Spartaku Pogradec 2 806 11.15% 13.20%
17 1950-05-06 31.6 @ Kavaja 4 1359 82.69% Spartaku Pogradec 1 1001 4.22% 13.09%
18 1950-07-08 32.0 @ Korca 2 1336 73.65% Elbasani 0 1192 13.14% 13.21%
19 1950-06-03 32.1 @ Partizani 8 1869 87.21% Fieri 1 1013 0.25% 12.54%
20 1950-04-29 32.6 @ Vlora 4 1320 79.45% KF Tirana 1 1065 7.39% 13.16%
21 1950-04-15 32.7 Dinamo Tirana 1 1556 77.52% @ KF Tirana 0 1080 9.35% 13.13%
22 1950-04-15 33.1 Shkodra 1 1546 76.13% @ KF Tirana 0 1096 10.72% 13.15%
23 1950-05-20 33.3 Partizani 5 1842 84.91% @ Elbasani 0 1100 2.18% 12.91%
24 1950-06-24 33.9 @ Vlora 2 1327 68.15% Lezhe 0 1254 18.62% 13.24%
25 1950-04-15 34.3 @ Korca 3 1155 61.00% Spartaku Pogradec 0 1153 25.74% 13.25%