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1960 Kategoria e Parë Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Dinamo Tirana

32 points · 7th Title

Last Title: 1956

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dinamo Tirana

6.80 points above expected

32 points · 25.20 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Tomori

6.10 points below expected

12 points · 18.10 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dinamo Tirana Champion 18 15 2 1 32 44 9 +35 25.20 +6.80
2 Partizani 18 12 4 2 28 41 12 +29 24.45 +3.55
3 17 Nentori 18 8 4 6 20 22 17 +5 19.30 +0.70
4 Skenderbeu 18 7 5 6 19 23 27 -4 16.49 +2.51
5 Besa 18 6 6 6 18 18 19 -1 18.53 -0.53
6 Flamurtari 18 5 6 7 16 18 17 +1 18.22 -2.22
7 Labinoti 18 3 7 8 13 13 28 -15 12.94 +0.06
8 Vllaznia 18 4 4 10 12 11 30 -19 13.56 -1.56
9 Tomori 18 4 4 10 12 18 34 -16 18.10 -6.10
10 Lokomotiva Durres 18 3 4 11 10 11 26 -15 13.21 -3.21

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dinamo Tirana 32 25.20 +6.80
2 Partizani 28 24.45 +3.55
3 Skenderbeu 19 16.49 +2.51
4 17 Nentori 20 19.30 +0.70
5 Labinoti 13 12.94 +0.06

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Tomori 12 18.10 -6.10
2 Lokomotiva Durres 10 13.21 -3.21
3 Flamurtari 16 18.22 -2.22
4 Vllaznia 12 13.56 -1.56
5 Besa 18 18.53 -0.53

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dinamo Tirana 1485 32 -40 8 7.9 +0.1
Partizani 1488 28 +69 9 7.7 +1.3
17 Nentori 1208 20 +39 7 5.7 +1.3
Skenderbeu 1059 19 -52 4 4.4 -0.4
Besa 1094 18 -20 6 6.9 -0.9
Flamurtari 1087 16 +21 4 5.6 -1.6
Labinoti 991 13 +40 5 3.8 +1.2
Tomori 978 12 -25 2 2.8 -0.8
Vllaznia 914 12 -71 1 3.0 -2.0
Lokomotiva Durres 915 10 +49 3 2.0 +1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 1N BES DT FLA LAB LD PAR SKE TOM VLL
17 Nentori —
2-0-0
2.87
0-0-2
1.59
1-0-1
2.98
1-1-0
3.81
1-0-1
4.06
0-1-1
1.23
0-2-0
3.09
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
3.53
Besa
0-0-2
2.60
 —
0-0-2
1.24
2-0-0
2.74
0-2-0
3.93
1-1-0
2.95
0-1-1
2.35
1-0-1
3.06
2-0-0
2.72
0-2-0
3.77
Dinamo Tirana
2-0-0
3.88
2-0-0
4.24
 —
1-1-0
4.19
2-0-0
3.46
1-1-0
4.70
1-0-1
3.45
2-0-0
3.44
2-0-0
4.63
2-0-0
4.46
Flamurtari
1-0-1
2.48
0-0-2
2.72
0-1-1
1.29
 —
1-1-0
3.93
0-1-1
3.69
0-1-1
1.60
0-1-1
3.34
1-1-0
3.01
2-0-0
2.88
Labinoti
0-1-1
1.65
0-2-0
1.54
0-0-2
2.04
0-1-1
1.55
 —
1-0-1
2.62
0-0-2
0.92
1-0-1
2.15
0-2-0
1.49
1-1-0
2.62
Lokomotiva Durres
1-0-1
1.41
0-1-1
2.52
0-1-1
0.81
1-1-0
1.78
1-0-1
2.84
 —
0-1-1
1.09
0-0-2
2.76
0-0-2
1.69
0-0-2
2.99
Partizani
1-1-0
4.24
1-1-0
3.11
1-0-1
2.02
1-1-0
3.86
2-0-0
4.57
1-1-0
4.42
 —
2-0-0
4.14
1-0-1
3.32
2-0-0
4.07
Skenderbeu
0-2-0
2.37
1-0-1
2.40
0-0-2
2.05
1-1-0
2.12
1-0-1
3.32
2-0-0
2.71
0-0-2
1.34
 —
1-1-0
2.54
1-1-0
2.92
Tomori
0-0-2
2.37
0-0-2
2.75
0-0-2
0.87
0-1-1
2.46
0-2-0
3.97
2-0-0
3.77
1-0-1
2.18
0-1-1
2.92
 —
1-0-1
3.58
Vllaznia
1-0-1
1.94
0-2-0
1.70
0-0-2
1.05
0-0-2
2.58
0-1-1
2.85
2-0-0
2.48
0-0-2
1.40
0-1-1
2.54
1-0-1
1.88
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.94 +6.0
Allowed 0.74 -7.5
Differential 0.96 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%12.22%6.67%0.56%2.78%1.11%31.11%
112.22%14.44%6.67%3.33%1.67%1.11%39.44%
26.67%6.67%3.33%0.56%0.56%—17.78%
30.56%3.33%0.56%———4.44%
42.78%1.67%0.56%———5.00%
5+1.11%1.11%————2.22%
Total31.11%39.44%17.78%4.44%5.00%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.28 1.28 1.99
CV 1.05 1.05 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%11.11%———27.78%
127.78%11.11%5.56%———44.44%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3———————
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%33.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 0.94 +0.28
SD 1.22 0.87 1.53
CV 0.99 0.92 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%——5.56%—38.89%
15.56%16.67%11.11%———33.33%
2—16.67%————16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%61.11%11.11%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.06 -0.06
SD 1.03 0.94 1.39
CV 1.03 0.89 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
227.78%11.11%————38.89%
3—5.56%————5.56%
416.67%—————16.67%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total61.11%33.33%—5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 0.50 +1.94
SD 1.58 0.79 1.76
CV 0.65 1.57 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%22.22%5.56%———38.89%
15.56%16.67%11.11%———33.33%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%38.89%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.94 +0.06
SD 1.03 0.80 1.30
CV 1.03 0.85 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%—11.11%—38.89%
111.11%33.33%———5.56%50.00%
25.56%——5.56%——11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%50.00%5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.56 -0.83
SD 0.67 1.65 1.86
CV 0.93 1.06 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%11.11%—5.56%—44.44%
116.67%11.11%11.11%11.11%——50.00%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 1.44 -0.83
SD 0.61 1.15 1.29
CV 0.99 0.80 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
122.22%11.11%5.56%———38.89%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total50.00%33.33%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 0.67 +1.61
SD 1.99 0.77 2.30
CV 0.88 1.15 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
15.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%44.44%
25.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.50 -0.22
SD 0.83 1.34 1.66
CV 0.65 0.89 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%——5.56%27.78%
15.56%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%—50.00%
25.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%27.78%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.89 -0.89
SD 0.84 1.75 2.08
CV 0.84 0.92 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%61.11%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—27.78%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%11.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 1.67 -1.06
SD 1.04 1.71 2.13
CV 1.70 1.03 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Partizani 1488 28 24.45 +3.55 90.0% 16 19 22 24 27 30 31
Dinamo Tirana 1485 32 25.20 +6.80 99.0% 17 20 23 25 27 29 33
17 Nentori 1208 20 19.30 +0.70 66.0% 11 14 17 19 21 25 27
Besa 1094 18 18.53 -0.53 46.0% 9 13 17 19 20 23 26
Flamurtari 1087 16 18.22 -2.22 32.0% 10 12 16 18 20 24 27
Skenderbeu 1059 19 16.49 +2.51 85.0% 8 11 14 17 18 22 25
Labinoti 991 13 12.94 +0.06 60.0% 6 8 11 13 15 18 20
Tomori 978 12 18.10 -6.10 3.0% 9 13 16 18 20 24 26
Lokomotiva Durres 915 10 13.21 -3.21 20.0% 4 9 11 13 15 18 20
Vllaznia 914 12 13.56 -1.56 36.0% 7 9 11 13 15 19 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 27% * Slight Edge: 27% to 33% * Clear Edge: 33% to 40% * Strong Edge: 40% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+36.67%
Clear Edge
55.56%25.56%18.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge
208 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0133.61600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.83 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.64+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.04 * Tight Race: 0.04 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
52%
Dinamo Tirana, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Runaway
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.47 * Some Luck: 2.47 to 3.7 * Lucky: 3.7 to 4.94 * Wild Swing: 4.94 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.15 * Close: 1.15 to 1.72 * Off: 1.72 to 2.3 * Way Off: 2.3 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.48 points
Some Luck
03.098
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Close
01.443
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Dinamo Tirana
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
Tomori
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 77.5% * Wide Edge: 77.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 93% * Strong Edge: 93% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59.5% * Some Drama: 59.5% to 66.5% * Frequent: 66.5% to 72.5% * Very Frequent: 72.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 10.5% * Occasional: 10.5% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 17.5% * Very Frequent: 17.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.120.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 211.73
1.97
Strong Separation
0.91.351.82.153
Interquartile Edge
76%
Clear Edge
50%63.5%72.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
96%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Some Drama
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.56 * Notable Separation: 0.56 to 0.62 * Lopsided: 0.62 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.41 * Some Carryover: 0.41 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14.5% * Upset-Prone: 14.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 10.5% * As Expected: 10.5% to 12.5% * Shaky Favorites: 12.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.51
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.61
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.34
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.29
Weak Carryover
00.410.590.731
Upset Rate
Expected
12%
As Expected
0%14%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
As Expected
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.60
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.04
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.069
Well Within Noise
00.1460.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dinamo Tirana52.00%38.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%————
Partizani41.00%36.00%14.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%———
17 Nentori4.00%9.00%28.00%17.00%14.00%9.00%14.00%1.00%1.00%3.00%
Skenderbeu1.00%1.00%6.00%12.00%18.00%20.00%15.00%15.00%8.00%4.00%
Besa1.00%4.00%19.00%22.00%17.00%18.00%9.00%5.00%5.00%—
Flamurtari1.00%6.00%15.00%19.00%19.00%16.00%12.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%
Labinoti———4.00%2.00%2.00%15.00%21.00%24.00%32.00%
Vllaznia———3.00%7.00%7.00%6.00%26.00%26.00%25.00%
Tomori—6.00%12.00%14.00%12.00%22.00%17.00%7.00%8.00%2.00%
Lokomotiva Durres———3.00%7.00%4.00%11.00%21.00%24.00%30.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Besa 100% —
Dinamo Tirana 100% —
Partizani 100% —
Tomori 98.00% 2.00%
17 Nentori 97.00% 3.00%
Flamurtari 96.00% 4.00%
Skenderbeu 96.00% 4.00%
Vllaznia 75.00% 25.00%
Lokomotiva Durres 70.00% 30.00%
Labinoti 68.00% 32.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1960-04-01 Labinoti W 1-034.1 1182 1111 63.65% 26.64% 9.71%+0.98 +13.2 2
1960-04-01 @ 17 Nentori L 0-134.1 1111 1182 9.71% 26.64% 63.65%-0.98 -13.2 0
1960-04-01 Flamurtari W 1-032.8 1249 1089 67.86% 26.17% 5.97%+1.41 +8.5 2
1960-04-01 @ Partizani L 0-132.8 1089 1249 5.97% 26.17% 67.86%-1.41 -8.5 0
1960-04-01 Dinamo Tirana L 1-349.4 1014 1112 49.60% 27.09% 23.31%+0.17 -79.6 0
1960-04-01 @ Skenderbeu W 3-149.4 1112 1014 23.31% 27.09% 49.60%-0.17 +79.6 2
1960-04-01 Besa D 1-152.7 1111 1099 59.79% 26.87% 13.34%+0.70 -10.7 1
1960-04-01 @ Lokomotiva Durres D 1-152.7 1099 1111 13.34% 26.87% 59.79%-0.70 +10.7 1
1960-04-01 Lokomotiva Durres W 2-142.8 1041 1100 53.76% 27.04% 19.20%+0.36 +22.0 2
1960-04-01 @ Vllaznia L 1-242.8 1100 1041 19.20% 27.04% 53.76%-0.36 -22.0 1
1960-04-08 Dinamo Tirana L 0-441.8 1098 1192 50.14% 27.08% 22.78%+0.19 -176.2 0
1960-04-08 @ Labinoti W 4-041.8 1192 1098 22.78% 27.08% 50.14%-0.19 +176.2 4
1960-04-08 Besa W 1-033.8 1195 1110 64.45% 26.58% 8.97%+1.05 +12.3 4
1960-04-08 @ 17 Nentori L 0-133.8 1110 1195 8.97% 26.58% 64.45%-1.05 -12.3 1
1960-04-08 Skenderbeu L 1-257.0 1078 934 67.22% 26.27% 6.52%+1.33 -62.9 1
1960-04-08 @ Lokomotiva Durres W 2-157.0 934 1078 6.52% 26.27% 67.22%-1.33 +62.9 2
1960-04-08 Partizani W 2-142.8 1210 1257 54.92% 27.02% 18.06%+0.42 +20.9 2
1960-04-08 @ Tomori L 1-242.8 1257 1210 18.06% 27.02% 54.92%-0.42 -20.9 2
1960-04-08 17 Nentori W 1-039.9 1063 1208 44.08% 27.10% 28.82%-0.05 +31.9 4
1960-04-08 @ Vllaznia L 0-139.9 1208 1063 28.82% 27.10% 44.08%+0.05 -31.9 4
1960-04-15 Flamurtari W 2-140.9 1098 1080 60.21% 26.85% 12.94%+0.72 +15.9 3
1960-04-15 @ Besa L 1-240.9 1080 1098 12.94% 26.85% 60.21%-0.72 -15.9 0
1960-04-15 Vllaznia W 3-032.1 1064 1095 56.41% 26.98% 16.60%+0.50 +56.8 2
1960-04-15 @ Flamurtari L 0-332.1 1095 1064 16.60% 26.98% 56.41%-0.50 -56.8 4
1960-04-15 Tomori D 1-152.7 922 1231 22.68% 26.76% 50.56%-0.84 +5.9 1
1960-04-15 @ Labinoti D 1-152.7 1231 922 50.56% 26.76% 22.68%+0.84 -6.0 3
1960-04-15 Lokomotiva Durres W 4-028.2 1176 1015 67.88% 26.17% 5.95%+1.41 +30.2 6
1960-04-15 @ 17 Nentori L 0-428.2 1015 1176 5.95% 26.17% 67.88%-1.41 -30.2 1
1960-04-15 Skenderbeu W 4-132.8 1236 997 70.51% 25.62% 3.87%+1.79 +12.9 4
1960-04-15 @ Partizani L 1-432.8 997 1236 3.87% 25.62% 70.51%-1.79 -12.9 2
1960-04-22 Skenderbeu W 2-139.0 1114 984 66.60% 26.35% 7.05%+1.26 +9.3 5
1960-04-22 @ Besa L 1-239.0 984 1114 7.05% 26.35% 66.60%-1.26 -9.3 2
1960-04-22 Partizani W 2-031.8 1368 1249 66.12% 26.41% 7.47%+1.21 +19.6 6
1960-04-22 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-231.8 1249 1368 7.47% 26.41% 66.12%-1.21 -19.6 4
1960-04-22 17 Nentori W 2-035.3 1121 1206 51.14% 27.08% 21.79%+0.24 +48.6 4
1960-04-22 @ Flamurtari L 0-235.3 1206 1121 21.79% 27.08% 51.14%-0.24 -48.6 6
1960-04-22 Vllaznia W 3-140.4 975 1038 53.33% 27.05% 19.62%+0.34 +38.7 4
1960-04-22 @ Skenderbeu L 1-340.4 1038 975 19.62% 27.05% 53.33%-0.34 -38.7 4
1960-04-22 Tomori L 0-238.0 985 1225 30.97% 26.98% 42.06%-0.51 -63.4 1
1960-04-22 @ Lokomotiva Durres W 2-038.0 1225 985 42.06% 26.98% 30.97%+0.51 +63.4 5
1960-04-29 Labinoti W 4-026.9 1230 928 72.13% 25.11% 2.76%+2.09 +14.3 6
1960-04-29 @ Partizani L 0-426.9 928 1230 2.76% 25.11% 72.13%-2.09 -14.3 1
1960-04-29 Flamurtari W 2-146.2 1013 1170 42.54% 27.10% 30.36%-0.11 +31.3 6
1960-04-29 @ Skenderbeu L 1-246.2 1170 1013 30.36% 27.10% 42.54%+0.11 -31.3 4
1960-04-29 Dinamo Tirana D 0-048.0 922 1388 10.21% 25.91% 63.87%-1.60 +14.1 2
1960-04-29 @ Lokomotiva Durres D 0-048.0 1388 922 63.87% 25.91% 10.21%+1.60 -14.1 7
1960-04-29 Besa L 1-257.4 1289 1123 68.08% 26.13% 5.78%+1.44 -63.8 5
1960-04-29 @ Tomori W 2-157.4 1123 1289 5.78% 26.13% 68.08%-1.44 +63.8 7
1960-04-29 Tomori W 4-144.0 999 1225 32.97% 27.01% 40.02%-0.44 +94.0 6
1960-04-29 @ Vllaznia L 1-444.0 1225 999 40.02% 27.01% 32.97%+0.44 -94.0 5
1960-05-06 Partizani D 0-047.8 1187 1244 53.94% 27.04% 19.02%+0.37 -8.6 8
1960-05-06 @ Besa D 0-047.8 1244 1187 19.02% 27.04% 53.94%-0.37 +8.6 7
1960-05-06 17 Nentori W 2-030.2 1374 1157 69.82% 25.79% 4.39%+1.68 +11.9 9
1960-05-06 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-230.2 1157 1374 4.39% 25.79% 69.82%-1.68 -11.9 6
1960-05-06 Labinoti W 3-242.8 1139 914 70.09% 25.73% 4.19%+1.72 +5.4 6
1960-05-06 @ Flamurtari L 2-342.8 914 1139 4.19% 25.73% 70.09%-1.72 -5.4 1
1960-05-06 Vllaznia W 6-028.9 1252 1093 67.82% 26.18% 6.00%+1.40 +44.6 9
1960-05-06 @ Partizani L 0-628.9 1093 1252 6.00% 26.18% 67.82%-1.40 -44.6 6
1960-05-06 Tomori W 2-143.7 1045 1131 50.97% 27.08% 21.95%+0.23 +24.4 8
1960-05-06 @ Skenderbeu L 1-243.7 1131 1045 21.95% 27.08% 50.97%-0.23 -24.4 5
1960-05-13 Besa W 4-028.4 1386 1178 69.54% 25.85% 4.61%+1.64 +23.7 11
1960-05-13 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-428.4 1178 1386 4.61% 25.85% 69.54%-1.64 -23.7 8
1960-05-13 17 Nentori D 1-152.6 1069 1145 52.02% 27.07% 20.91%+0.28 -6.7 9
1960-05-13 @ Skenderbeu D 1-152.6 1145 1069 20.91% 27.07% 52.02%-0.28 +6.7 7
1960-05-13 Labinoti W 1-034.8 936 908 60.93% 26.82% 12.25%+0.77 +16.1 4
1960-05-13 @ Lokomotiva Durres L 0-134.8 908 936 12.25% 26.82% 60.93%-0.77 -16.1 1
1960-05-13 Flamurtari D 0-047.6 1106 1144 55.78% 27.00% 17.22%+0.46 -9.6 6
1960-05-13 @ Tomori D 0-047.6 1144 1106 17.22% 27.00% 55.78%-0.46 +9.6 7
1960-05-13 Dinamo Tirana L 0-234.1 1049 1409 17.65% 26.54% 55.81%-1.09 -40.7 6
1960-05-13 @ Vllaznia W 2-034.1 1409 1049 55.81% 26.54% 17.65%+1.09 +40.7 13
1960-05-20 Dinamo Tirana D 1-153.6 1154 1450 24.08% 26.81% 49.11%-0.78 +5.3 8
1960-05-20 @ Flamurtari D 1-153.6 1450 1154 49.11% 26.81% 24.08%+0.78 -5.3 14
1960-05-20 Besa D 1-152.6 892 1154 28.14% 26.92% 44.94%-0.62 +3.5 2
1960-05-20 @ Labinoti D 1-152.6 1154 892 44.94% 26.92% 28.14%+0.62 -3.5 9
1960-05-20 Partizani D 1-152.8 952 1297 19.05% 26.61% 54.34%-1.02 +7.7 5
1960-05-20 @ Lokomotiva Durres D 1-152.8 1297 952 54.34% 26.61% 19.05%+1.02 -7.7 10
1960-05-20 17 Nentori L 0-147.5 1097 1152 54.13% 27.03% 18.84%+0.38 -53.0 6
1960-05-20 @ Tomori W 1-047.5 1152 1097 18.84% 27.03% 54.13%-0.38 +52.9 9
1960-05-20 Labinoti D 1-152.8 1008 896 65.82% 26.44% 7.74%+1.18 -14.0 7
1960-05-20 @ Vllaznia D 1-152.8 896 1008 7.74% 26.44% 65.82%-1.18 +14.0 3
1960-05-27 Flamurtari D 0-047.6 910 1159 29.81% 26.95% 43.24%-0.55 +3.0 4
1960-05-27 @ Labinoti D 0-047.6 1159 910 43.24% 26.95% 29.81%+0.55 -3.1 9
1960-05-27 Dinamo Tirana L 0-141.8 1205 1445 31.06% 26.98% 41.97%-0.51 -33.7 9
1960-05-27 @ 17 Nentori W 1-041.8 1445 1205 41.97% 26.98% 31.06%+0.51 +33.7 16
1960-05-27 Besa W 1-033.2 1289 1151 66.98% 26.30% 6.72%+1.31 +9.5 12
1960-05-27 @ Partizani L 0-133.2 1151 1289 6.72% 26.30% 66.98%-1.31 -9.5 9
1960-05-27 Skenderbeu D 1-152.6 1044 1062 57.43% 26.96% 15.61%+0.55 -9.4 7
1960-05-27 @ Tomori D 1-152.6 1062 1044 15.61% 26.96% 57.43%-0.55 +9.4 10
1960-05-27 Partizani L 1-438.9 994 1299 23.17% 26.78% 50.05%-0.82 -62.1 7
1960-05-27 @ Vllaznia W 4-138.9 1299 994 50.05% 26.78% 23.17%+0.82 +62.1 14
1960-06-03 17 Nentori W 2-138.8 1361 1171 68.94% 25.98% 5.08%+1.55 +6.9 16
1960-06-03 @ Partizani L 1-238.8 1171 1361 5.08% 25.98% 68.94%-1.55 -6.9 9
1960-06-03 Labinoti W 2-030.2 1072 913 67.83% 26.17% 6.00%+1.41 +16.0 12
1960-06-03 @ Skenderbeu L 0-230.2 913 1072 6.00% 26.17% 67.83%-1.41 -16.0 4
1960-06-03 Flamurtari W 1-042.0 960 1156 37.07% 27.06% 35.88%-0.30 +37.5 7
1960-06-03 @ Lokomotiva Durres L 0-142.0 1156 960 35.88% 27.06% 37.07%+0.30 -37.5 9
1960-06-03 Dinamo Tirana L 1-240.7 1035 1478 11.49% 26.06% 62.45%-1.49 -14.1 7
1960-06-03 @ Tomori W 2-140.7 1478 1035 62.45% 26.06% 11.49%+1.49 +14.1 18
1960-06-03 Besa D 0-047.6 932 1142 35.17% 27.04% 37.80%-0.36 +0.6 8
1960-06-03 @ Vllaznia D 0-047.6 1142 932 37.80% 27.04% 35.17%+0.36 -0.6 10
1960-06-10 Lokomotiva Durres W 3-136.2 1141 997 67.22% 26.27% 6.52%+1.33 +15.0 12
1960-06-10 @ Besa L 1-336.2 997 1141 6.52% 26.27% 67.22%-1.33 -15.0 7
1960-06-10 Skenderbeu W 5-130.6 1493 1088 74.29% 24.13% 1.58%+2.58 +6.7 20
1960-06-10 @ Dinamo Tirana L 1-530.6 1088 1493 1.58% 24.13% 74.29%-2.58 -6.7 12
1960-06-10 Partizani D 1-153.0 1118 1368 29.78% 26.95% 43.26%-0.56 +2.8 10
1960-06-10 @ Flamurtari D 1-153.0 1368 1118 43.26% 26.95% 29.78%+0.56 -2.7 17
1960-06-10 17 Nentori D 1-152.6 897 1165 27.45% 26.90% 45.65%-0.64 +3.8 5
1960-06-10 @ Labinoti D 1-152.6 1165 897 45.65% 26.90% 27.45%+0.64 -3.8 10
1960-06-10 Vllaznia L 0-149.8 982 932 62.38% 26.73% 10.89%+0.88 -61.4 7
1960-06-10 @ Lokomotiva Durres W 1-049.8 932 982 10.89% 26.73% 62.38%-0.88 +61.4 10
1960-06-17 Dinamo Tirana L 1-244.1 1156 1499 19.23% 26.62% 54.15%-1.01 -21.8 12
1960-06-17 @ Besa W 2-144.1 1499 1156 54.15% 26.62% 19.23%+1.01 +21.8 22
1960-06-17 Vllaznia W 4-026.1 1521 994 76.39% 22.79% 0.82%+3.17 +4.1 24
1960-06-17 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-426.1 994 1521 0.82% 22.79% 76.39%-3.17 -4.1 10
1960-06-17 Tomori W 2-031.0 1121 1020 65.24% 26.50% 8.25%+1.12 +21.5 12
1960-06-17 @ Flamurtari L 0-231.0 1020 1121 8.25% 26.50% 65.24%-1.12 -21.5 7
1960-06-17 Lokomotiva Durres W 2-033.4 900 921 57.29% 26.96% 15.75%+0.54 +37.5 7
1960-06-17 @ Labinoti L 0-233.4 921 900 15.75% 26.96% 57.29%-0.54 -37.5 7
1960-06-17 Skenderbeu D 2-258.6 1161 1081 64.14% 26.60% 9.25%+1.02 -9.8 11
1960-06-17 @ 17 Nentori D 2-258.6 1081 1161 9.25% 26.60% 64.14%-1.02 +9.8 13
1960-06-24 Flamurtari W 1-035.3 1151 1143 59.57% 26.88% 13.55%+0.68 +17.5 13
1960-06-24 @ 17 Nentori L 0-135.3 1143 1151 13.55% 26.88% 59.57%-0.68 -17.5 12
1960-06-24 Dinamo Tirana W 3-149.9 1365 1525 42.02% 27.09% 30.88%-0.13 +54.8 19
1960-06-24 @ Partizani L 1-349.9 1525 1365 30.88% 27.09% 42.02%+0.13 -54.9 24
1960-06-24 Besa W 2-142.4 1091 1134 55.26% 27.01% 17.73%+0.43 +20.6 15
1960-06-24 @ Skenderbeu L 1-242.4 1134 1091 17.73% 27.01% 55.26%-0.43 -20.6 12
1960-06-24 Lokomotiva Durres W 3-136.6 999 883 65.97% 26.43% 7.60%+1.20 +17.3 9
1960-06-24 @ Tomori L 1-336.6 883 999 7.60% 26.43% 65.97%-1.20 -17.3 7
1960-06-24 Skenderbeu D 0-047.6 990 1112 46.91% 27.10% 25.99%+0.06 -4.9 11
1960-06-24 @ Vllaznia D 0-047.6 1112 990 25.99% 27.10% 46.91%-0.06 +4.9 16
1960-07-01 Besa L 0-149.1 1125 1114 59.79% 26.87% 13.34%+0.70 -58.6 12
1960-07-01 @ Flamurtari W 1-049.1 1114 1125 13.34% 26.87% 59.79%-0.70 +58.6 14
1960-07-01 Partizani L 0-236.2 1116 1420 23.32% 26.79% 49.90%-0.82 -51.0 16
1960-07-01 @ Skenderbeu W 2-036.2 1420 1116 49.90% 26.79% 23.32%+0.82 +51.0 21
1960-07-01 17 Nentori W 1-046.0 866 1169 23.40% 26.79% 49.81%-0.81 +48.8 9
1960-07-01 @ Lokomotiva Durres L 0-146.0 1169 866 49.81% 26.79% 23.40%+0.81 -48.8 13
1960-07-01 Labinoti D 1-152.7 1016 938 64.07% 26.61% 9.32%+1.02 -13.0 10
1960-07-01 @ Tomori D 1-152.7 938 1016 9.32% 26.61% 64.07%-1.02 +13.0 8
1960-07-01 Flamurtari L 0-146.6 985 1066 51.47% 27.07% 21.46%+0.25 -50.5 11
1960-07-01 @ Vllaznia W 1-046.6 1066 985 21.46% 27.07% 51.47%-0.25 +50.5 14
1960-07-08 Vllaznia D 0-048.0 1172 934 70.46% 25.63% 3.91%+1.78 -18.7 15
1960-07-08 @ Besa D 0-048.0 934 1172 3.91% 25.63% 70.46%-1.78 +18.7 12
1960-07-08 Tomori W 2-028.3 1470 1003 75.40% 23.47% 1.13%+2.88 +3.0 26
1960-07-08 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-228.3 1003 1470 1.13% 23.47% 75.40%-2.88 -3.0 10
1960-07-08 Lokomotiva Durres D 2-258.8 1117 915 69.37% 25.89% 4.74%+1.61 -12.0 15
1960-07-08 @ Flamurtari D 2-258.8 915 1117 4.74% 25.89% 69.37%-1.61 +12.0 10
1960-07-08 Skenderbeu W 1-038.7 951 1065 47.77% 27.10% 25.13%+0.09 +28.8 10
1960-07-08 @ Labinoti L 0-138.7 1065 951 25.13% 27.10% 47.77%-0.09 -28.8 16
1960-07-08 Partizani D 2-259.4 1120 1471 18.51% 26.59% 54.90%-1.04 +6.0 14
1960-07-08 @ 17 Nentori D 2-259.4 1471 1120 54.90% 26.59% 18.51%+1.04 -6.0 22
1960-07-15 Labinoti D 1-152.9 1153 980 68.38% 26.08% 5.54%+1.48 -15.5 16
1960-07-15 @ Besa D 1-152.9 980 1153 5.54% 26.08% 68.38%-1.48 +15.5 11
1960-07-15 Flamurtari W 2-029.3 1473 1105 73.58% 24.49% 1.92%+2.41 +5.2 28
1960-07-15 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-229.3 1105 1473 1.92% 24.49% 73.58%-2.41 -5.2 15
1960-07-15 Vllaznia W 1-034.5 995 953 61.91% 26.76% 11.33%+0.84 +15.1 13
1960-07-15 @ Labinoti L 0-134.5 953 995 11.33% 26.76% 61.91%-0.84 -15.1 12
1960-07-15 Tomori W 4-240.0 1126 1000 66.42% 26.37% 7.20%+1.24 +14.7 16
1960-07-15 @ 17 Nentori L 2-440.0 1000 1126 7.20% 26.37% 66.42%-1.24 -14.7 10
1960-07-15 Lokomotiva Durres W 1-030.3 1465 927 76.56% 22.66% 0.78%+3.22 +1.1 24
1960-07-15 @ Partizani L 0-130.3 927 1465 0.78% 22.66% 76.56%-3.22 -1.1 10
1960-07-22 Tomori W 3-136.1 1138 985 67.57% 26.22% 6.22%+1.37 +14.4 18
1960-07-22 @ Besa L 1-336.1 985 1138 6.22% 26.22% 67.57%-1.37 -14.4 10
1960-07-22 Lokomotiva Durres W 1-030.2 1479 926 76.80% 22.49% 0.72%+3.30 +1.0 30
1960-07-22 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-130.2 926 1479 0.72% 22.49% 76.80%-3.30 -1.0 10
1960-07-22 Skenderbeu D 1-152.7 1100 1037 63.19% 26.68% 10.13%+0.94 -12.6 16
1960-07-22 @ Flamurtari D 1-152.7 1037 1100 10.13% 26.68% 63.19%-0.94 +12.5 17
1960-07-22 Partizani L 0-134.5 1010 1466 10.81% 25.99% 63.21%-1.55 -14.2 13
1960-07-22 @ Labinoti W 1-034.5 1466 1010 63.21% 25.99% 10.81%+1.55 +14.2 26
1960-07-22 Vllaznia W 1-034.7 971 938 61.31% 26.80% 11.90%+0.80 +15.7 12
1960-07-22 @ Tomori L 0-134.7 938 971 11.90% 26.80% 61.31%-0.80 -15.7 12
1960-07-29 17 Nentori L 0-149.2 1152 1140 59.82% 26.87% 13.31%+0.70 -58.6 18
1960-07-29 @ Besa W 1-049.2 1140 1152 13.31% 26.87% 59.82%-0.70 +58.6 18
1960-07-29 Labinoti W 6-128.7 1480 996 75.67% 23.29% 1.04%+2.96 +5.3 32
1960-07-29 @ Dinamo Tirana L 1-628.7 996 1480 1.04% 23.29% 75.67%-2.96 -5.3 13
1960-07-29 Vllaznia W 2-029.1 1199 922 71.52% 25.32% 3.16%+1.97 +8.6 20
1960-07-29 @ 17 Nentori L 0-229.1 922 1199 3.16% 25.32% 71.52%-1.97 -8.6 12
1960-07-29 Tomori W 7-027.0 1480 987 75.84% 23.18% 0.99%+3.01 +8.3 28
1960-07-29 @ Partizani L 0-727.0 987 1480 0.99% 23.18% 75.84%-3.01 -8.3 12
1960-07-29 Lokomotiva Durres W 1-033.1 1049 925 66.38% 26.38% 7.24%+1.24 +10.1 19
1960-07-29 @ Skenderbeu L 0-133.1 925 1049 7.24% 26.38% 66.38%-1.24 -10.1 10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1960-04-29 5.78% Besa 1123 2 @ Tomori 1289 1
2 1960-04-08 6.52% Skenderbeu 934 2 @ Lokomotiva Durres 1078 1
3 1960-06-10 10.89% Vllaznia 932 1 @ Lokomotiva Durres 982 0
4 1960-07-29 13.31% 17 Nentori 1140 1 @ Besa 1152 0
5 1960-07-01 13.34% Besa 1114 1 @ Flamurtari 1125 0
6 1960-05-20 18.84% 17 Nentori 1152 1 @ Tomori 1097 0
7 1960-07-01 21.46% Flamurtari 1066 1 @ Vllaznia 985 0
8 1960-04-08 22.78% Dinamo Tirana 1192 4 @ Labinoti 1098 0
9 1960-04-01 23.31% Dinamo Tirana 1112 3 @ Skenderbeu 1014 1
10 1960-07-01 23.40% @ Lokomotiva Durres 866 1 17 Nentori 1169 0
11 1960-04-29 32.97% @ Vllaznia 999 4 Tomori 1225 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1960-04-08 176.20 Dinamo Tirana 4 1192 22.78% @ Labinoti 0 1098 50.14% 27.08%
2 1960-04-29 93.96 @ Vllaznia 4 999 32.97% Tomori 1 1225 40.02% 27.01%
3 1960-04-01 79.63 Dinamo Tirana 3 1112 23.31% @ Skenderbeu 1 1014 49.60% 27.09%
4 1960-04-29 63.82 Besa 2 1123 5.78% @ Tomori 1 1289 68.08% 26.13%
5 1960-04-22 63.38 Tomori 2 1225 42.06% @ Lokomotiva Durres 0 985 30.97% 26.98%
6 1960-04-08 62.91 Skenderbeu 2 934 6.52% @ Lokomotiva Durres 1 1078 67.22% 26.27%
7 1960-05-27 62.10 Partizani 4 1299 50.05% @ Vllaznia 1 994 23.17% 26.78%
8 1960-06-10 61.36 Vllaznia 1 932 10.89% @ Lokomotiva Durres 0 982 62.38% 26.73%
9 1960-07-29 58.64 17 Nentori 1 1140 13.31% @ Besa 0 1152 59.82% 26.87%
10 1960-07-01 58.60 Besa 1 1114 13.34% @ Flamurtari 0 1125 59.79% 26.87%
11 1960-04-15 56.80 @ Flamurtari 3 1064 56.41% Vllaznia 0 1095 16.60% 26.98%
12 1960-06-24 54.86 @ Partizani 3 1365 42.02% Dinamo Tirana 1 1525 30.88% 27.09%
13 1960-05-20 52.95 17 Nentori 1 1152 18.84% @ Tomori 0 1097 54.13% 27.03%
14 1960-07-01 50.95 Partizani 2 1420 49.90% @ Skenderbeu 0 1116 23.32% 26.79%
15 1960-07-01 50.47 Flamurtari 1 1066 21.46% @ Vllaznia 0 985 51.47% 27.07%
16 1960-07-01 48.81 @ Lokomotiva Durres 1 866 23.40% 17 Nentori 0 1169 49.81% 26.79%
17 1960-04-22 48.56 @ Flamurtari 2 1121 51.14% 17 Nentori 0 1206 21.79% 27.08%
18 1960-05-06 44.57 @ Partizani 6 1252 67.82% Vllaznia 0 1093 6.00% 26.18%
19 1960-05-13 40.74 Dinamo Tirana 2 1409 55.81% @ Vllaznia 0 1049 17.65% 26.54%
20 1960-04-22 38.73 @ Skenderbeu 3 975 53.33% Vllaznia 1 1038 19.62% 27.05%
21 1960-06-03 37.50 @ Lokomotiva Durres 1 960 37.07% Flamurtari 0 1156 35.88% 27.06%
22 1960-06-17 37.46 @ Labinoti 2 900 57.29% Lokomotiva Durres 0 921 15.75% 26.96%
23 1960-05-27 33.68 Dinamo Tirana 1 1445 41.97% @ 17 Nentori 0 1205 31.06% 26.98%
24 1960-04-08 31.91 @ Vllaznia 1 1063 44.08% 17 Nentori 0 1208 28.82% 27.10%
25 1960-04-29 31.27 @ Skenderbeu 2 1013 42.54% Flamurtari 1 1170 30.36% 27.10%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1960-07-08 59.4 @ 17 Nentori 2 1120 18.51% Partizani 2 1471 54.90% 26.59%
2 1960-07-08 58.8 @ Flamurtari 2 1117 69.37% Lokomotiva Durres 2 915 4.74% 25.89%
3 1960-06-17 58.6 @ 17 Nentori 2 1161 64.14% Skenderbeu 2 1081 9.25% 26.60%
4 1960-04-29 57.4 Besa 2 1123 5.78% @ Tomori 1 1289 68.08% 26.13%
5 1960-04-08 57.0 Skenderbeu 2 934 6.52% @ Lokomotiva Durres 1 1078 67.22% 26.27%
6 1960-05-20 53.6 @ Flamurtari 1 1154 24.08% Dinamo Tirana 1 1450 49.11% 26.81%
7 1960-06-10 53.0 @ Flamurtari 1 1118 29.78% Partizani 1 1368 43.26% 26.95%
8 1960-07-15 52.9 @ Besa 1 1153 68.38% Labinoti 1 980 5.54% 26.08%
9 1960-05-20 52.8 @ Lokomotiva Durres 1 952 19.05% Partizani 1 1297 54.34% 26.61%
10 1960-05-20 52.8 @ Vllaznia 1 1008 65.82% Labinoti 1 896 7.74% 26.44%
11 1960-04-01 52.7 @ Lokomotiva Durres 1 1111 59.79% Besa 1 1099 13.34% 26.87%
12 1960-04-15 52.7 @ Labinoti 1 922 22.68% Tomori 1 1231 50.56% 26.76%
13 1960-07-01 52.7 @ Tomori 1 1016 64.07% Labinoti 1 938 9.32% 26.61%
14 1960-07-22 52.7 @ Flamurtari 1 1100 63.19% Skenderbeu 1 1037 10.13% 26.68%
15 1960-05-13 52.6 @ Skenderbeu 1 1069 52.02% 17 Nentori 1 1145 20.91% 27.07%
16 1960-05-20 52.6 @ Labinoti 1 892 28.14% Besa 1 1154 44.94% 26.92%
17 1960-05-27 52.6 @ Tomori 1 1044 57.43% Skenderbeu 1 1062 15.61% 26.96%
18 1960-06-10 52.6 @ Labinoti 1 897 27.45% 17 Nentori 1 1165 45.65% 26.90%
19 1960-06-24 49.9 @ Partizani 3 1365 42.02% Dinamo Tirana 1 1525 30.88% 27.09%
20 1960-06-10 49.8 Vllaznia 1 932 10.89% @ Lokomotiva Durres 0 982 62.38% 26.73%
21 1960-04-01 49.4 Dinamo Tirana 3 1112 23.31% @ Skenderbeu 1 1014 49.60% 27.09%
22 1960-07-29 49.2 17 Nentori 1 1140 13.31% @ Besa 0 1152 59.82% 26.87%
23 1960-07-01 49.1 Besa 1 1114 13.34% @ Flamurtari 0 1125 59.79% 26.87%
24 1960-04-29 48.0 @ Lokomotiva Durres 0 922 10.21% Dinamo Tirana 0 1388 63.87% 25.91%
25 1960-07-08 48.0 @ Besa 0 1172 70.46% Vllaznia 0 934 3.91% 25.63%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1960-06-17 26.1 @ Dinamo Tirana 4 1521 76.39% Vllaznia 0 994 0.82% 22.79%
2 1960-04-29 26.9 @ Partizani 4 1230 72.13% Labinoti 0 928 2.76% 25.11%
3 1960-07-29 27.0 @ Partizani 7 1480 75.84% Tomori 0 987 0.99% 23.18%
4 1960-04-15 28.2 @ 17 Nentori 4 1176 67.88% Lokomotiva Durres 0 1015 5.95% 26.17%
5 1960-07-08 28.3 @ Dinamo Tirana 2 1470 75.40% Tomori 0 1003 1.13% 23.47%
6 1960-05-13 28.4 @ Dinamo Tirana 4 1386 69.54% Besa 0 1178 4.61% 25.85%
7 1960-07-29 28.7 @ Dinamo Tirana 6 1480 75.67% Labinoti 1 996 1.04% 23.29%
8 1960-05-06 28.9 @ Partizani 6 1252 67.82% Vllaznia 0 1093 6.00% 26.18%
9 1960-07-29 29.1 @ 17 Nentori 2 1199 71.52% Vllaznia 0 922 3.16% 25.32%
10 1960-07-15 29.3 @ Dinamo Tirana 2 1473 73.58% Flamurtari 0 1105 1.92% 24.49%
11 1960-05-06 30.2 @ Dinamo Tirana 2 1374 69.82% 17 Nentori 0 1157 4.39% 25.79%
12 1960-06-03 30.2 @ Skenderbeu 2 1072 67.83% Labinoti 0 913 6.00% 26.17%
13 1960-07-22 30.2 @ Dinamo Tirana 1 1479 76.80% Lokomotiva Durres 0 926 0.72% 22.49%
14 1960-07-15 30.3 @ Partizani 1 1465 76.56% Lokomotiva Durres 0 927 0.78% 22.66%
15 1960-06-10 30.6 @ Dinamo Tirana 5 1493 74.29% Skenderbeu 1 1088 1.58% 24.13%
16 1960-06-17 31.0 @ Flamurtari 2 1121 65.24% Tomori 0 1020 8.25% 26.50%
17 1960-04-22 31.8 @ Dinamo Tirana 2 1368 66.12% Partizani 0 1249 7.47% 26.41%
18 1960-04-15 32.1 @ Flamurtari 3 1064 56.41% Vllaznia 0 1095 16.60% 26.98%
19 1960-04-01 32.8 @ Partizani 1 1249 67.86% Flamurtari 0 1089 5.97% 26.17%
20 1960-04-15 32.8 @ Partizani 4 1236 70.51% Skenderbeu 1 997 3.87% 25.62%
21 1960-07-29 33.1 @ Skenderbeu 1 1049 66.38% Lokomotiva Durres 0 925 7.24% 26.38%
22 1960-05-27 33.2 @ Partizani 1 1289 66.98% Besa 0 1151 6.72% 26.30%
23 1960-06-17 33.4 @ Labinoti 2 900 57.29% Lokomotiva Durres 0 921 15.75% 26.96%
24 1960-04-08 33.8 @ 17 Nentori 1 1195 64.45% Besa 0 1110 8.97% 26.58%
25 1960-04-01 34.1 @ 17 Nentori 1 1182 63.65% Labinoti 0 1111 9.71% 26.64%