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1961 Kategoria e Parë Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Partizani

30 points · 8th Title

Last Title: 1959

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dinamo Tirana

3.31 points above expected

30 points · 26.69 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Tomori

3.47 points below expected

10 points · 13.47 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Partizani Champion 18 14 2 2 30 46 13 +33 26.89 +3.11
2 Dinamo Tirana 18 14 2 2 30 41 12 +29 26.69 +3.31
3 17 Nentori 18 9 5 4 23 27 18 +9 20.23 +2.77
4 Labinoti 18 8 2 8 18 23 26 -3 15.47 +2.53
5 Flamurtari 18 5 6 7 16 21 26 -5 17.65 -1.65
6 Besa 18 6 3 9 15 17 24 -7 16.97 -1.97
7 Skenderbeu 18 6 3 9 15 24 26 -2 16.67 -1.67
8 Traktori 18 3 6 9 12 16 26 -10 13.13 -1.13
9 Vllaznia 18 4 3 11 11 10 26 -16 12.83 -1.83
10 Tomori 18 3 4 11 10 15 43 -28 13.47 -3.47

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dinamo Tirana 30 26.69 +3.31
2 Partizani 30 26.89 +3.11
3 17 Nentori 23 20.23 +2.77
4 Labinoti 18 15.47 +2.53
5 Traktori 12 13.13 -1.13

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Tomori 10 13.47 -3.47
2 Besa 15 16.97 -1.97
3 Vllaznia 11 12.83 -1.83
4 Skenderbeu 15 16.67 -1.67
5 Flamurtari 16 17.65 -1.65

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dinamo Tirana 1366 30 +7 9 8.6 +0.4
Partizani 1387 30 +0 8 8.0 +0.0
17 Nentori 1163 23 +13 8 6.8 +1.2
Labinoti 1030 18 +5 6 4.6 +1.4
Flamurtari 1038 16 -22 3 4.8 -1.8
Besa 1031 15 +1 6 6.4 -0.4
Skenderbeu 1036 15 +1 3 2.9 +0.1
Traktori 938 12 -1 3 3.6 -0.6
Vllaznia 898 11 +13 4 2.5 +1.5
Tomori 909 10 -18 1 2.9 -1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 1N BES DT FLA LAB PAR SKE TOM TRA VLL
17 Nentori —
2-0-0
3.38
0-0-2
1.81
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
3.48
0-2-0
1.54
2-0-0
3.38
1-1-0
3.81
1-1-0
3.86
0-0-2
4.02
Besa
0-0-2
2.21
 —
0-0-2
1.23
0-1-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.89
0-0-2
1.24
1-1-0
2.77
1-0-1
3.33
1-1-0
3.41
2-0-0
3.43
Dinamo Tirana
2-0-0
3.79
2-0-0
4.39
 —
1-0-1
4.21
2-0-0
4.49
1-0-1
2.63
1-1-0
4.33
2-0-0
4.72
1-1-0
4.79
2-0-0
4.74
Flamurtari
0-1-1
2.43
1-1-0
2.88
1-0-1
1.40
 —
1-0-1
3.21
0-0-2
1.15
0-0-2
2.97
0-2-0
3.41
1-1-0
3.49
1-1-0
3.63
Labinoti
0-0-2
2.11
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-2
1.13
1-0-1
2.37
 —
1-0-1
1.01
1-0-1
2.47
2-0-0
2.89
1-1-0
3.29
1-1-0
3.26
Partizani
0-2-0
4.06
2-0-0
4.39
1-0-1
2.95
2-0-0
4.47
1-0-1
4.63
 —
2-0-0
4.46
2-0-0
4.77
2-0-0
4.87
2-0-0
4.94
Skenderbeu
0-0-2
2.20
0-1-1
2.81
0-1-1
1.29
2-0-0
2.61
1-0-1
3.11
0-0-2
1.17
 —
1-0-1
3.25
1-1-0
3.39
1-0-1
3.42
Tomori
0-1-1
1.80
1-0-1
2.26
0-0-2
0.92
0-2-0
2.18
0-0-2
2.69
0-0-2
0.87
1-0-1
2.33
 —
1-0-1
2.91
0-1-1
2.93
Traktori
0-1-1
1.74
0-1-1
2.18
0-1-1
0.85
0-1-1
2.10
0-1-1
2.30
0-0-2
0.79
0-1-1
2.20
1-0-1
2.68
 —
2-0-0
2.53
Vllaznia
2-0-0
1.60
0-0-2
2.16
0-0-2
0.91
0-1-1
1.96
0-1-1
2.33
0-0-2
0.71
1-0-1
2.17
1-1-0
2.65
0-0-2
3.05
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.93 +6.2
Allowed 0.74 -7.2
Differential 0.95 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%8.33%10.00%3.89%0.56%1.67%31.11%
18.33%8.89%7.78%3.89%1.11%1.11%31.11%
210.00%7.78%4.44%0.56%0.56%0.56%23.89%
33.89%3.89%0.56%———8.33%
40.56%1.11%0.56%———2.22%
5+1.67%1.11%0.56%———3.33%
Total31.11%31.11%23.89%8.33%2.22%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.37 1.37 2.15
CV 1.03 1.03 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
111.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
35.56%16.67%————22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%44.44%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.00 +0.50
SD 1.10 0.77 1.42
CV 0.73 0.77 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%11.11%11.11%——44.44%
15.56%11.11%——5.56%—22.22%
211.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%11.11%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.33 -0.39
SD 1.00 1.24 1.82
CV 1.06 0.93 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
122.22%5.56%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
216.67%5.56%————22.22%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total61.11%16.67%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 0.67 +1.61
SD 1.84 0.97 1.91
CV 0.81 1.46 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
15.56%16.67%22.22%———44.44%
2—16.67%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%33.33%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.44 -0.28
SD 0.86 1.04 1.13
CV 0.73 0.72 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%——5.56%27.78%
111.11%5.56%5.56%16.67%——38.89%
216.67%11.11%————27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%27.78%16.67%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.44 -0.17
SD 1.41 1.58 2.41
CV 1.10 1.09 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
15.56%—5.56%———11.11%
222.22%16.67%11.11%———50.00%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total44.44%38.89%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 0.72 +1.83
SD 1.58 0.75 1.89
CV 0.62 1.04 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%———33.33%
111.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%22.22%33.33%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.44 -0.11
SD 1.53 1.69 2.42
CV 1.15 1.17 —
Max 6 7 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—11.11%38.89%
1—16.67%5.56%11.11%—11.11%44.44%
211.11%—————11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%16.67%16.67%—22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 2.39 -1.56
SD 0.86 2.23 2.68
CV 1.03 0.93 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%—55.56%
1—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%33.33%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.44 -0.56
SD 1.23 1.04 1.76
CV 1.39 0.72 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%22.22%11.11%——55.56%
111.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%22.22%33.33%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 1.44 -0.89
SD 0.70 1.20 1.53
CV 1.27 0.83 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Partizani 1387 30 26.89 +3.11 87.0% 18 22 25 27 29 31 35
Dinamo Tirana 1366 30 26.69 +3.31 87.0% 20 22 24 26 29 32 33
17 Nentori 1163 23 20.23 +2.77 83.0% 11 14 18 21 23 24 25
Flamurtari 1038 16 17.65 -1.65 37.0% 10 12 15 18 20 23 27
Skenderbeu 1036 15 16.67 -1.67 40.0% 10 12 14 16 19 23 27
Besa 1031 15 16.97 -1.97 33.0% 8 11 14 17 19 22 26
Labinoti 1030 18 15.47 +2.53 86.0% 10 10 13 16 18 20 21
Traktori 938 12 13.13 -1.13 46.0% 6 9 11 13 15 18 20
Tomori 909 10 13.47 -3.47 18.0% 6 8 11 14 16 19 21
Vllaznia 898 11 12.83 -1.83 29.0% 5 8 11 13 15 17 19

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 27% * Slight Edge: 27% to 33% * Clear Edge: 33% to 40% * Strong Edge: 40% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+35.56%
Clear Edge
57.78%20.00%22.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge
175 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0129.17500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.96 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.74+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.04 * Tight Race: 0.04 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
55%
Partizani, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.51 * Some Luck: 2.51 to 3.76 * Lucky: 3.76 to 5.01 * Wild Swing: 5.01 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.1 * Close: 1.1 to 1.65 * Off: 1.65 to 2.2 * Way Off: 2.2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.46 points
As Expected
03.138
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.373
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
87.00%
Partizani
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
18.00%
Tomori
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 77.5% * Wide Edge: 77.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 93% * Strong Edge: 93% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59.5% * Some Drama: 59.5% to 66.5% * Frequent: 66.5% to 72.5% * Very Frequent: 72.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 10.5% * Occasional: 10.5% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 17.5% * Very Frequent: 17.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.120.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 174.39
1.93
Strong Separation
0.91.351.82.153
Interquartile Edge
73%
Clear Edge
50%63.5%72.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
94%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Few
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Very Frequent
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.56 * Notable Separation: 0.56 to 0.62 * Lopsided: 0.62 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.41 * Some Carryover: 0.41 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14.5% * Upset-Prone: 14.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 10.5% * As Expected: 10.5% to 12.5% * Shaky Favorites: 12.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.45
Highly Predictable
00.502
Matchup Imbalance
0.58
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.64
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.85
Near-Lock
00.410.590.731
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
As Expected
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Shaky Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.41
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.34
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.076
Well Within Noise
00.1430.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Partizani55.00%34.00%9.00%1.00%1.00%—————
Dinamo Tirana41.00%50.00%8.00%1.00%——————
17 Nentori1.00%8.00%47.00%18.00%7.00%9.00%6.00%3.00%1.00%—
Labinoti——4.00%11.00%21.00%15.00%18.00%14.00%9.00%8.00%
Flamurtari—5.00%14.00%21.00%22.00%12.00%12.00%8.00%4.00%2.00%
Besa1.00%1.00%8.00%23.00%16.00%16.00%9.00%19.00%3.00%4.00%
Skenderbeu2.00%2.00%9.00%17.00%14.00%14.00%20.00%11.00%10.00%1.00%
Traktori——1.00%4.00%6.00%7.00%16.00%12.00%25.00%29.00%
Vllaznia———2.00%3.00%13.00%9.00%17.00%31.00%25.00%
Tomori———2.00%10.00%14.00%10.00%16.00%17.00%31.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
17 Nentori 100%
Besa 100%
Dinamo Tirana 100%
Flamurtari 100%
Labinoti 100%
Partizani 100%
Skenderbeu 100%
Tomori 100%
Traktori 100%
Vllaznia 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1961-04-01 Labinoti W 3-135.0 1144 988 72.70% 19.61% 7.69%+1.63 +3.8 2
1961-04-01 @ 17 Nentori L 1-335.0 988 1144 7.69% 19.61% 72.70%-1.63 -3.8 0
1961-04-01 Flamurtari L 0-144.4 925 1058 47.73% 21.21% 31.07%-0.02 -11.5 0
1961-04-01 @ Traktori W 1-044.4 1058 925 31.07% 21.21% 47.73%+0.02 +11.5 2
1961-04-01 Dinamo Tirana W 3-139.3 1341 1328 63.37% 20.80% 15.84%+0.82 +7.4 2
1961-04-01 @ Partizani L 1-339.3 1328 1341 15.84% 20.80% 63.37%-0.82 -7.4 0
1961-04-01 Besa D 0-050.0 1038 1062 59.92% 20.99% 19.10%+0.60 -2.5 1
1961-04-01 @ Skenderbeu D 0-050.0 1062 1038 19.10% 20.99% 59.92%-0.60 +2.5 1
1961-04-01 Skenderbeu W 1-038.4 930 1035 51.20% 21.20% 27.60%+0.14 +7.4 2
1961-04-01 @ Vllaznia L 0-138.4 1035 930 27.60% 21.20% 51.20%-0.14 -7.3 1
1961-04-08 Dinamo Tirana L 0-136.5 984 1320 21.92% 20.35% 57.73%-1.18 -6.0 0
1961-04-08 @ Labinoti W 1-036.5 1320 984 57.73% 20.35% 21.92%+1.18 +6.0 2
1961-04-08 Besa W 1-033.2 1148 1065 68.49% 20.31% 11.20%+1.21 +3.3 4
1961-04-08 @ 17 Nentori L 0-133.2 1065 1148 11.20% 20.31% 68.49%-1.21 -3.3 1
1961-04-08 Partizani L 1-242.6 1028 1349 23.48% 20.47% 56.05%-1.10 -6.0 1
1961-04-08 @ Skenderbeu W 2-142.6 1349 1028 56.05% 20.47% 23.48%+1.10 +6.0 4
1961-04-08 Traktori W 2-030.8 982 914 67.49% 20.43% 12.08%+1.13 +6.7 2
1961-04-08 @ Tomori L 0-230.8 914 982 12.08% 20.43% 67.49%-1.13 -6.7 0
1961-04-08 17 Nentori W 2-040.1 937 1151 36.57% 21.06% 42.36%-0.49 +19.5 4
1961-04-08 @ Vllaznia L 0-240.1 1151 937 42.36% 21.06% 36.57%+0.49 -19.5 4
1961-04-15 Flamurtari D 1-154.6 1062 1070 61.50% 20.91% 17.59%+0.69 -2.5 2
1961-04-15 @ Besa D 1-154.6 1070 1062 17.59% 20.91% 61.50%-0.69 +2.5 3
1961-04-15 Vllaznia W 2-138.1 1072 957 70.50% 20.02% 9.48%+1.40 +2.7 5
1961-04-15 @ Flamurtari L 1-238.1 957 1072 9.48% 20.02% 70.50%-1.40 -2.7 4
1961-04-15 Tomori W 6-132.7 978 988 61.29% 20.92% 17.79%+0.68 +18.4 2
1961-04-15 @ Labinoti L 1-632.7 988 978 17.79% 20.92% 61.29%-0.68 -18.4 2
1961-04-15 Skenderbeu W 3-135.7 1132 1022 70.17% 20.07% 9.76%+1.37 +4.7 6
1961-04-15 @ 17 Nentori L 1-335.7 1022 1132 9.76% 20.07% 70.17%-1.37 -4.7 1
1961-04-15 Partizani L 0-133.4 907 1355 12.93% 19.25% 67.81%-1.82 -3.7 0
1961-04-15 @ Traktori W 1-033.4 1355 907 67.81% 19.25% 12.93%+1.82 +3.7 6
1961-04-22 Partizani L 0-235.2 1059 1358 25.87% 20.63% 53.51%-0.97 -13.0 2
1961-04-22 @ Besa W 2-035.2 1358 1059 53.51% 20.63% 25.87%+0.97 +13.0 8
1961-04-22 Traktori W 2-026.5 1326 903 82.08% 15.99% 1.92%+3.15 +1.0 4
1961-04-22 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-226.5 903 1326 1.92% 15.99% 82.08%-3.15 -1.0 0
1961-04-22 17 Nentori D 1-154.6 1075 1136 56.21% 21.12% 22.68%+0.39 -1.8 6
1961-04-22 @ Flamurtari D 1-154.6 1136 1075 22.68% 21.12% 56.21%-0.39 +1.8 7
1961-04-22 Vllaznia W 3-024.7 1371 954 81.94% 16.08% 1.98%+3.12 +1.5 10
1961-04-22 @ Partizani L 0-324.7 954 1371 1.98% 16.08% 81.94%-3.12 -1.5 4
1961-04-22 Tomori W 6-029.0 1017 970 66.01% 20.58% 13.41%+1.01 +20.5 3
1961-04-22 @ Skenderbeu L 0-629.0 970 1017 13.41% 20.58% 66.01%-1.01 -20.5 2
1961-04-29 Labinoti D 1-154.5 902 996 52.54% 21.18% 26.28%+0.20 -1.4 1
1961-04-29 @ Traktori D 1-154.5 996 902 26.28% 21.18% 52.54%-0.20 +1.4 3
1961-04-29 Flamurtari W 2-136.0 1373 1073 78.52% 17.83% 3.65%+2.45 +1.0 12
1961-04-29 @ Partizani L 1-236.0 1073 1373 3.65% 17.83% 78.52%-2.45 -1.0 6
1961-04-29 Dinamo Tirana D 1-154.8 1037 1327 26.92% 20.69% 52.39%-0.92 +1.4 4
1961-04-29 @ Skenderbeu D 1-154.8 1327 1037 52.39% 20.69% 26.92%+0.92 -1.4 5
1961-04-29 Besa W 3-033.5 949 1046 52.20% 21.19% 26.61%+0.18 +19.5 4
1961-04-29 @ Tomori L 0-333.5 1046 949 26.61% 21.19% 52.20%-0.18 -19.5 2
1961-04-29 Tomori W 1-035.5 952 969 60.72% 20.95% 18.33%+0.64 +5.2 6
1961-04-29 @ Vllaznia L 0-135.5 969 952 18.33% 20.95% 60.72%-0.64 -5.2 4
1961-05-06 Traktori W 3-027.8 1027 901 71.08% 19.92% 8.99%+1.46 +7.3 4
1961-05-06 @ Besa L 0-327.8 901 1027 8.99% 19.92% 71.08%-1.46 -7.4 1
1961-05-06 17 Nentori W 2-029.1 1326 1138 74.19% 19.27% 6.54%+1.81 +3.7 7
1961-05-06 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-229.1 1138 1326 6.54% 19.27% 74.19%-1.81 -3.7 7
1961-05-06 Labinoti W 2-138.9 1072 998 67.92% 20.38% 11.70%+1.16 +3.2 8
1961-05-06 @ Flamurtari L 1-238.9 998 1072 11.70% 20.38% 67.92%-1.16 -3.2 3
1961-05-06 Vllaznia W 4-137.4 893 958 55.94% 21.12% 22.94%+0.37 +14.5 3
1961-05-06 @ Traktori L 1-437.4 958 893 22.94% 21.12% 55.94%-0.37 -14.5 6
1961-05-06 Tomori W 6-024.4 1374 964 81.76% 16.19% 2.05%+3.08 +3.1 14
1961-05-06 @ Partizani L 0-624.4 964 1374 2.05% 16.19% 81.76%-3.08 -3.1 4
1961-05-13 Besa W 3-025.8 1330 1034 78.37% 17.89% 3.74%+2.43 +3.0 9
1961-05-13 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-325.8 1034 1330 3.74% 17.89% 78.37%-2.43 -3.0 4
1961-05-13 17 Nentori D 2-261.5 1377 1134 76.47% 18.60% 4.92%+2.12 -3.2 15
1961-05-13 @ Partizani D 2-261.5 1134 1377 4.92% 18.60% 76.47%-2.12 +3.2 8
1961-05-13 Labinoti W 3-137.0 1039 995 65.79% 20.60% 13.60%+0.99 +6.5 6
1961-05-13 @ Skenderbeu L 1-337.0 995 1039 13.60% 20.60% 65.79%-0.99 -6.5 3
1961-05-13 Flamurtari D 0-049.9 961 1075 50.06% 21.20% 28.74%+0.08 -1.3 5
1961-05-13 @ Tomori D 0-049.9 1075 961 28.74% 21.20% 50.06%-0.08 +1.3 9
1961-05-13 Dinamo Tirana L 0-134.9 943 1333 17.12% 19.87% 63.01%-1.49 -4.8 6
1961-05-13 @ Vllaznia W 1-034.9 1333 943 63.01% 19.87% 17.12%+1.49 +4.8 11
1961-05-20 Dinamo Tirana W 2-150.4 1076 1337 30.40% 20.86% 48.74%-0.75 +11.0 11
1961-05-20 @ Flamurtari L 1-250.4 1337 1076 48.74% 20.86% 30.40%+0.75 -11.0 11
1961-05-20 Besa W 2-033.6 988 1031 58.14% 21.06% 20.80%+0.49 +10.9 5
1961-05-20 @ Labinoti L 0-233.6 1031 988 20.80% 21.06% 58.14%-0.49 -10.9 4
1961-05-20 Traktori W 1-032.2 1045 908 71.70% 19.81% 8.48%+1.52 +2.5 8
1961-05-20 @ Skenderbeu L 0-132.2 908 1045 8.48% 19.81% 71.70%-1.52 -2.5 3
1961-05-20 17 Nentori D 1-154.6 959 1138 41.60% 21.16% 37.24%-0.28 -0.2 6
1961-05-20 @ Tomori D 1-154.6 1138 959 37.24% 21.16% 41.60%+0.28 +0.2 9
1961-05-20 Labinoti D 0-049.9 938 999 56.29% 21.11% 22.59%+0.39 -2.1 7
1961-05-20 @ Vllaznia D 0-049.9 999 938 22.59% 21.11% 56.29%-0.39 +2.1 6
1961-05-27 Flamurtari W 2-143.2 1001 1087 53.44% 21.17% 25.39%+0.24 +6.5 8
1961-05-27 @ Labinoti L 1-243.2 1087 1001 25.39% 21.17% 53.44%-0.24 -6.5 11
1961-05-27 Dinamo Tirana L 0-142.5 1138 1326 40.19% 21.14% 38.68%-0.34 -9.9 9
1961-05-27 @ 17 Nentori W 1-042.5 1326 1138 38.68% 21.14% 40.19%+0.34 +9.9 13
1961-05-27 Besa D 1-154.5 905 1020 50.06% 21.20% 28.74%+0.08 -1.1 4
1961-05-27 @ Traktori D 1-154.5 1020 905 28.74% 21.20% 50.06%-0.08 +1.1 5
1961-05-27 Partizani L 1-631.6 959 1374 15.18% 19.61% 65.21%-1.63 -15.6 6
1961-05-27 @ Tomori W 6-131.6 1374 959 65.21% 19.61% 15.18%+1.63 +15.6 17
1961-05-27 Traktori L 0-246.7 936 904 64.84% 20.68% 14.48%+0.92 -29.0 7
1961-05-27 @ Vllaznia W 2-046.7 904 936 14.48% 20.68% 64.84%-0.92 +29.0 6
1961-06-03 17 Nentori D 0-049.9 933 1128 39.31% 21.12% 39.57%-0.37 +0.0 7
1961-06-03 @ Traktori D 0-049.9 1128 933 39.57% 21.12% 39.31%+0.37 -0.0 10
1961-06-03 Labinoti W 2-027.0 1389 1007 80.99% 16.63% 2.38%+2.92 +1.3 19
1961-06-03 @ Partizani L 0-227.0 1007 1389 2.38% 16.63% 80.99%-2.92 -1.3 8
1961-06-03 Flamurtari W 3-031.4 1048 1081 59.12% 21.02% 19.86%+0.55 +15.2 10
1961-06-03 @ Skenderbeu L 0-331.4 1081 1048 19.86% 21.02% 59.12%-0.55 -15.2 11
1961-06-03 Dinamo Tirana L 0-232.1 943 1336 16.85% 19.84% 63.31%-1.51 -8.9 6
1961-06-03 @ Tomori W 2-032.1 1336 943 63.31% 19.84% 16.85%+1.51 +8.9 15
1961-06-03 Besa L 1-250.7 907 1021 50.13% 21.20% 28.67%+0.09 -11.3 7
1961-06-03 @ Vllaznia W 2-150.7 1021 907 28.67% 21.20% 50.13%-0.09 +11.3 7
1961-06-10 Skenderbeu W 1-035.9 1033 1063 59.39% 21.01% 19.60%+0.56 +5.5 9
1961-06-10 @ Besa L 0-135.9 1063 1033 19.60% 21.01% 59.39%-0.56 -5.5 10
1961-06-10 Partizani W 2-144.3 1345 1391 57.89% 21.07% 21.05%+0.48 +5.5 17
1961-06-10 @ Dinamo Tirana L 1-244.3 1391 1345 21.05% 21.07% 57.89%-0.48 -5.5 19
1961-06-10 Traktori D 2-260.6 1066 933 71.44% 19.86% 8.70%+1.49 -2.8 12
1961-06-10 @ Flamurtari D 2-260.6 933 1066 8.70% 19.86% 71.44%-1.49 +2.8 8
1961-06-10 17 Nentori L 1-347.9 1006 1128 49.16% 21.21% 29.63%+0.04 -19.2 8
1961-06-10 @ Labinoti W 3-147.9 1128 1006 29.63% 21.21% 49.16%-0.04 +19.2 12
1961-06-10 Vllaznia W 2-029.2 1058 896 72.96% 19.56% 7.48%+1.66 +4.2 12
1961-06-10 @ Skenderbeu L 0-229.2 896 1058 7.48% 19.56% 72.96%-1.66 -4.2 7
1961-06-17 Dinamo Tirana L 0-137.4 1038 1351 24.37% 20.53% 55.10%-1.05 -6.6 9
1961-06-17 @ Besa W 1-037.4 1351 1038 55.10% 20.53% 24.37%+1.05 +6.6 19
1961-06-17 Vllaznia W 3-024.3 1357 892 83.14% 15.32% 1.54%+3.40 +1.2 21
1961-06-17 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-324.3 892 1357 1.54% 15.32% 83.14%-3.40 -1.2 7
1961-06-17 Tomori D 1-154.9 1063 934 71.23% 19.90% 8.87%+1.47 -3.7 13
1961-06-17 @ Flamurtari D 1-154.9 934 1063 8.87% 19.90% 71.23%-1.47 +3.7 7
1961-06-17 Skenderbeu W 2-034.6 987 1062 54.76% 21.15% 24.09%+0.31 +12.4 10
1961-06-17 @ Labinoti L 0-234.6 1062 987 24.09% 21.15% 54.76%-0.31 -12.4 12
1961-06-17 Partizani D 2-260.9 1147 1385 33.35% 20.97% 45.68%-0.62 +0.5 13
1961-06-17 @ 17 Nentori D 2-260.9 1385 1147 45.68% 20.97% 33.35%+0.62 -0.5 20
1961-06-24 Flamurtari W 2-138.7 1148 1059 68.85% 20.26% 10.89%+1.24 +3.0 15
1961-06-24 @ 17 Nentori L 1-238.7 1059 1148 10.89% 20.26% 68.85%-1.24 -3.0 13
1961-06-24 Dinamo Tirana D 0-050.5 936 1358 14.63% 19.53% 65.83%-1.67 +3.3 9
1961-06-24 @ Traktori D 0-050.5 1358 936 65.83% 19.53% 14.63%+1.67 -3.3 22
1961-06-24 Besa W 4-130.3 1385 1032 80.17% 17.06% 2.77%+2.76 +1.9 22
1961-06-24 @ Partizani L 1-430.3 1032 1385 2.77% 17.06% 80.17%-2.76 -1.9 9
1961-06-24 Skenderbeu W 2-035.9 938 1049 50.49% 21.20% 28.31%+0.10 +14.1 9
1961-06-24 @ Tomori L 0-235.9 1049 938 28.31% 21.20% 50.49%-0.10 -14.1 12
1961-06-24 Partizani L 0-229.8 890 1387 10.18% 18.66% 71.16%-2.10 -5.5 7
1961-06-24 @ Vllaznia W 2-029.8 1387 890 71.16% 18.66% 10.18%+2.10 +5.5 24
1961-07-01 Besa W 3-244.9 1056 1030 64.43% 20.72% 14.85%+0.89 +3.8 15
1961-07-01 @ Flamurtari L 2-344.9 1030 1056 14.85% 20.72% 64.43%-0.89 -3.8 9
1961-07-01 Traktori W 4-023.7 1392 939 82.83% 15.52% 1.65%+3.32 +1.6 26
1961-07-01 @ Partizani L 0-423.7 939 1392 1.65% 15.52% 82.83%-3.32 -1.6 9
1961-07-01 17 Nentori L 1-250.6 1035 1151 49.95% 21.21% 28.85%+0.08 -11.3 12
1961-07-01 @ Skenderbeu W 2-150.6 1151 1035 28.85% 21.21% 49.95%-0.08 +11.3 17
1961-07-01 Labinoti L 0-244.7 952 999 57.74% 21.07% 21.19%+0.47 -25.8 9
1961-07-01 @ Tomori W 2-044.7 999 952 21.19% 21.07% 57.74%-0.47 +25.8 12
1961-07-01 Flamurtari D 0-049.9 885 1060 42.06% 21.17% 36.78%-0.26 -0.3 8
1961-07-01 @ Vllaznia D 0-049.9 1060 885 36.78% 21.17% 42.06%+0.26 +0.3 16
1961-07-08 Vllaznia W 2-029.5 1026 885 71.91% 19.77% 8.31%+1.54 +4.7 11
1961-07-08 @ Besa L 0-229.5 885 1026 8.31% 19.77% 71.91%-1.54 -4.7 8
1961-07-08 Tomori W 3-132.2 1355 927 82.23% 15.90% 1.87%+3.19 +0.9 24
1961-07-08 @ Dinamo Tirana L 1-332.2 927 1355 1.87% 15.90% 82.23%-3.19 -0.9 9
1961-07-08 Skenderbeu L 0-149.5 1060 1024 65.20% 20.65% 14.14%+0.95 -15.5 16
1961-07-08 @ Flamurtari W 1-049.5 1024 1060 14.14% 20.65% 65.20%-0.95 +15.5 14
1961-07-08 Partizani W 1-048.3 1025 1394 18.89% 20.07% 61.04%-1.37 +14.3 14
1961-07-08 @ Labinoti L 0-148.3 1394 1025 61.04% 20.07% 18.89%+1.37 -14.3 26
1961-07-08 Traktori W 2-028.3 1162 938 75.76% 18.83% 5.41%+2.02 +3.1 19
1961-07-08 @ 17 Nentori L 0-228.3 938 1162 5.41% 18.83% 75.76%-2.02 -3.1 9
1961-07-15 Labinoti W 2-032.6 1030 1039 61.40% 20.91% 17.68%+0.69 +9.5 13
1961-07-15 @ Besa L 0-232.6 1039 1030 17.68% 20.91% 61.40%-0.69 -9.5 14
1961-07-15 Flamurtari W 4-237.1 1356 1045 78.88% 17.67% 3.45%+2.51 +1.5 26
1961-07-15 @ Dinamo Tirana L 2-437.1 1045 1356 3.45% 17.67% 78.88%-2.51 -1.5 16
1961-07-15 Vllaznia W 1-032.0 1030 880 72.38% 19.68% 7.94%+1.59 +2.4 16
1961-07-15 @ Labinoti L 0-132.0 880 1030 7.94% 19.68% 72.38%-1.59 -2.4 8
1961-07-15 Tomori W 3-026.3 1165 926 76.35% 18.64% 5.00%+2.11 +4.1 21
1961-07-15 @ 17 Nentori L 0-326.3 926 1165 5.00% 18.64% 76.35%-2.11 -4.1 9
1961-07-15 Skenderbeu D 2-260.2 935 1039 51.27% 21.20% 27.53%+0.14 -0.9 10
1961-07-15 @ Traktori D 2-260.2 1039 935 27.53% 21.20% 51.27%-0.14 +0.9 15
1961-07-22 Tomori W 2-138.1 1040 922 70.66% 20.00% 9.34%+1.41 +2.6 15
1961-07-22 @ Besa L 1-238.1 922 1040 9.34% 20.00% 70.66%-1.41 -2.6 9
1961-07-22 Skenderbeu W 7-228.5 1358 1040 79.08% 17.58% 3.34%+2.55 +3.0 28
1961-07-22 @ Dinamo Tirana L 2-728.5 1040 1358 3.34% 17.58% 79.08%-2.55 -3.0 15
1961-07-22 Partizani L 1-242.2 1043 1379 21.96% 20.35% 57.69%-1.18 -5.7 16
1961-07-22 @ Flamurtari W 2-142.2 1379 1043 57.69% 20.35% 21.96%+1.18 +5.6 28
1961-07-22 Traktori W 2-138.4 1032 934 69.49% 20.18% 10.34%+1.30 +2.9 18
1961-07-22 @ Labinoti L 1-238.4 934 1032 10.34% 20.18% 69.49%-1.30 -2.9 10
1961-07-22 Vllaznia D 1-154.7 919 878 65.58% 20.62% 13.80%+0.97 -3.0 10
1961-07-22 @ Tomori D 1-154.7 878 919 13.80% 20.62% 65.58%-0.97 +3.0 9
1961-07-29 17 Nentori L 0-144.7 1043 1169 48.56% 21.21% 30.23%+0.01 -11.7 15
1961-07-29 @ Besa W 1-044.7 1169 1043 30.23% 21.21% 48.56%-0.01 +11.6 23
1961-07-29 Labinoti W 6-025.2 1361 1035 79.33% 17.47% 3.20%+2.60 +4.9 30
1961-07-29 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-625.2 1035 1361 3.20% 17.47% 79.33%-2.60 -4.9 18
1961-07-29 Vllaznia L 1-258.2 1181 881 78.53% 17.82% 3.65%+2.45 -17.4 23
1961-07-29 @ 17 Nentori W 2-158.2 881 1181 3.65% 17.82% 78.53%-2.45 +17.4 11
1961-07-29 Tomori W 3-137.7 931 916 63.47% 20.79% 15.74%+0.82 +7.4 12
1961-07-29 @ Traktori L 1-337.7 916 931 15.74% 20.79% 63.47%-0.82 -7.4 10
1961-07-29 Skenderbeu W 2-027.3 1385 1037 80.01% 17.14% 2.85%+2.72 +1.6 30
1961-07-29 @ Partizani L 0-227.3 1037 1385 2.85% 17.14% 80.01%-2.72 -1.6 15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1961-07-29 3.65% Vllaznia 881 2 @ 17 Nentori 1181 1
2 1961-07-08 14.14% Skenderbeu 1024 1 @ Flamurtari 1060 0
3 1961-05-27 14.48% Traktori 904 2 @ Vllaznia 936 0
4 1961-07-08 18.89% @ Labinoti 1025 1 Partizani 1394 0
5 1961-07-01 21.19% Labinoti 999 2 @ Tomori 952 0
6 1961-06-03 28.67% Besa 1021 2 @ Vllaznia 907 1
7 1961-07-01 28.85% 17 Nentori 1151 2 @ Skenderbeu 1035 1
8 1961-06-10 29.63% 17 Nentori 1128 3 @ Labinoti 1006 1
9 1961-07-29 30.23% 17 Nentori 1169 1 @ Besa 1043 0
10 1961-05-20 30.40% @ Flamurtari 1076 2 Dinamo Tirana 1337 1
11 1961-04-01 31.07% Flamurtari 1058 1 @ Traktori 925 0
12 1961-04-08 36.57% @ Vllaznia 937 2 17 Nentori 1151 0
13 1961-05-27 38.68% Dinamo Tirana 1326 1 @ 17 Nentori 1138 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1961-05-27 28.99 Traktori 2 904 14.48% @ Vllaznia 0 936 64.84% 20.68%
2 1961-07-01 25.82 Labinoti 2 999 21.19% @ Tomori 0 952 57.74% 21.07%
3 1961-04-22 20.50 @ Skenderbeu 6 1017 66.01% Tomori 0 970 13.41% 20.58%
4 1961-04-08 19.54 @ Vllaznia 2 937 36.57% 17 Nentori 0 1151 42.36% 21.06%
5 1961-04-29 19.53 @ Tomori 3 949 52.20% Besa 0 1046 26.61% 21.19%
6 1961-06-10 19.25 17 Nentori 3 1128 29.63% @ Labinoti 1 1006 49.16% 21.21%
7 1961-04-15 18.44 @ Labinoti 6 978 61.29% Tomori 1 988 17.79% 20.92%
8 1961-07-29 17.44 Vllaznia 2 881 3.65% @ 17 Nentori 1 1181 78.53% 17.82%
9 1961-05-27 15.64 Partizani 6 1374 65.21% @ Tomori 1 959 15.18% 19.61%
10 1961-07-08 15.47 Skenderbeu 1 1024 14.14% @ Flamurtari 0 1060 65.20% 20.65%
11 1961-06-03 15.23 @ Skenderbeu 3 1048 59.12% Flamurtari 0 1081 19.86% 21.02%
12 1961-05-06 14.54 @ Traktori 4 893 55.94% Vllaznia 1 958 22.94% 21.12%
13 1961-07-08 14.33 @ Labinoti 1 1025 18.89% Partizani 0 1394 61.04% 20.07%
14 1961-06-24 14.15 @ Tomori 2 938 50.49% Skenderbeu 0 1049 28.31% 21.20%
15 1961-04-22 13.02 Partizani 2 1358 53.51% @ Besa 0 1059 25.87% 20.63%
16 1961-06-17 12.37 @ Labinoti 2 987 54.76% Skenderbeu 0 1062 24.09% 21.15%
17 1961-07-29 11.66 17 Nentori 1 1169 30.23% @ Besa 0 1043 48.56% 21.21%
18 1961-04-01 11.48 Flamurtari 1 1058 31.07% @ Traktori 0 925 47.73% 21.21%
19 1961-06-03 11.30 Besa 2 1021 28.67% @ Vllaznia 1 907 50.13% 21.20%
20 1961-07-01 11.27 17 Nentori 2 1151 28.85% @ Skenderbeu 1 1035 49.95% 21.21%
21 1961-05-20 10.99 @ Flamurtari 2 1076 30.40% Dinamo Tirana 1 1337 48.74% 20.86%
22 1961-05-20 10.92 @ Labinoti 2 988 58.14% Besa 0 1031 20.80% 21.06%
23 1961-05-27 9.93 Dinamo Tirana 1 1326 38.68% @ 17 Nentori 0 1138 40.19% 21.14%
24 1961-07-15 9.47 @ Besa 2 1030 61.40% Labinoti 0 1039 17.68% 20.91%
25 1961-06-03 8.90 Dinamo Tirana 2 1336 63.31% @ Tomori 0 943 16.85% 19.84%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1961-05-13 61.5 @ Partizani 2 1377 76.47% 17 Nentori 2 1134 4.92% 18.60%
2 1961-06-17 60.9 @ 17 Nentori 2 1147 33.35% Partizani 2 1385 45.68% 20.97%
3 1961-06-10 60.6 @ Flamurtari 2 1066 71.44% Traktori 2 933 8.70% 19.86%
4 1961-07-15 60.2 @ Traktori 2 935 51.27% Skenderbeu 2 1039 27.53% 21.20%
5 1961-07-29 58.2 Vllaznia 2 881 3.65% @ 17 Nentori 1 1181 78.53% 17.82%
6 1961-06-17 54.9 @ Flamurtari 1 1063 71.23% Tomori 1 934 8.87% 19.90%
7 1961-04-29 54.8 @ Skenderbeu 1 1037 26.92% Dinamo Tirana 1 1327 52.39% 20.69%
8 1961-07-22 54.7 @ Tomori 1 919 65.58% Vllaznia 1 878 13.80% 20.62%
9 1961-04-15 54.6 @ Besa 1 1062 61.50% Flamurtari 1 1070 17.59% 20.91%
10 1961-04-22 54.6 @ Flamurtari 1 1075 56.21% 17 Nentori 1 1136 22.68% 21.12%
11 1961-05-20 54.6 @ Tomori 1 959 41.60% 17 Nentori 1 1138 37.24% 21.16%
12 1961-04-29 54.5 @ Traktori 1 902 52.54% Labinoti 1 996 26.28% 21.18%
13 1961-05-27 54.5 @ Traktori 1 905 50.06% Besa 1 1020 28.74% 21.20%
14 1961-06-03 50.7 Besa 2 1021 28.67% @ Vllaznia 1 907 50.13% 21.20%
15 1961-07-01 50.6 17 Nentori 2 1151 28.85% @ Skenderbeu 1 1035 49.95% 21.21%
16 1961-06-24 50.5 @ Traktori 0 936 14.63% Dinamo Tirana 0 1358 65.83% 19.53%
17 1961-05-20 50.4 @ Flamurtari 2 1076 30.40% Dinamo Tirana 1 1337 48.74% 20.86%
18 1961-04-01 50.0 @ Skenderbeu 0 1038 59.92% Besa 0 1062 19.10% 20.99%
19 1961-05-13 49.9 @ Tomori 0 961 50.06% Flamurtari 0 1075 28.74% 21.20%
20 1961-05-20 49.9 @ Vllaznia 0 938 56.29% Labinoti 0 999 22.59% 21.11%
21 1961-06-03 49.9 @ Traktori 0 933 39.31% 17 Nentori 0 1128 39.57% 21.12%
22 1961-07-01 49.9 @ Vllaznia 0 885 42.06% Flamurtari 0 1060 36.78% 21.17%
23 1961-07-08 49.5 Skenderbeu 1 1024 14.14% @ Flamurtari 0 1060 65.20% 20.65%
24 1961-07-08 48.3 @ Labinoti 1 1025 18.89% Partizani 0 1394 61.04% 20.07%
25 1961-06-10 47.9 17 Nentori 3 1128 29.63% @ Labinoti 1 1006 49.16% 21.21%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1961-07-01 23.7 @ Partizani 4 1392 82.83% Traktori 0 939 1.65% 15.52%
2 1961-06-17 24.3 @ Dinamo Tirana 3 1357 83.14% Vllaznia 0 892 1.54% 15.32%
3 1961-05-06 24.4 @ Partizani 6 1374 81.76% Tomori 0 964 2.05% 16.19%
4 1961-04-22 24.7 @ Partizani 3 1371 81.94% Vllaznia 0 954 1.98% 16.08%
5 1961-07-29 25.2 @ Dinamo Tirana 6 1361 79.33% Labinoti 0 1035 3.20% 17.47%
6 1961-05-13 25.8 @ Dinamo Tirana 3 1330 78.37% Besa 0 1034 3.74% 17.89%
7 1961-07-15 26.3 @ 17 Nentori 3 1165 76.35% Tomori 0 926 5.00% 18.64%
8 1961-04-22 26.5 @ Dinamo Tirana 2 1326 82.08% Traktori 0 903 1.92% 15.99%
9 1961-06-03 27.0 @ Partizani 2 1389 80.99% Labinoti 0 1007 2.38% 16.63%
10 1961-07-29 27.3 @ Partizani 2 1385 80.01% Skenderbeu 0 1037 2.85% 17.14%
11 1961-05-06 27.8 @ Besa 3 1027 71.08% Traktori 0 901 8.99% 19.92%
12 1961-07-08 28.3 @ 17 Nentori 2 1162 75.76% Traktori 0 938 5.41% 18.83%
13 1961-07-22 28.5 @ Dinamo Tirana 7 1358 79.08% Skenderbeu 2 1040 3.34% 17.58%
14 1961-04-22 29.0 @ Skenderbeu 6 1017 66.01% Tomori 0 970 13.41% 20.58%
15 1961-05-06 29.1 @ Dinamo Tirana 2 1326 74.19% 17 Nentori 0 1138 6.54% 19.27%
16 1961-06-10 29.2 @ Skenderbeu 2 1058 72.96% Vllaznia 0 896 7.48% 19.56%
17 1961-07-08 29.5 @ Besa 2 1026 71.91% Vllaznia 0 885 8.31% 19.77%
18 1961-06-24 29.8 Partizani 2 1387 71.16% @ Vllaznia 0 890 10.18% 18.66%
19 1961-06-24 30.3 @ Partizani 4 1385 80.17% Besa 1 1032 2.77% 17.06%
20 1961-04-08 30.8 @ Tomori 2 982 67.49% Traktori 0 914 12.08% 20.43%
21 1961-06-03 31.4 @ Skenderbeu 3 1048 59.12% Flamurtari 0 1081 19.86% 21.02%
22 1961-05-27 31.6 Partizani 6 1374 65.21% @ Tomori 1 959 15.18% 19.61%
23 1961-07-15 32.0 @ Labinoti 1 1030 72.38% Vllaznia 0 880 7.94% 19.68%
24 1961-06-03 32.1 Dinamo Tirana 2 1336 63.31% @ Tomori 0 943 16.85% 19.84%
25 1961-05-20 32.2 @ Skenderbeu 1 1045 71.70% Traktori 0 908 8.48% 19.81%