2026-27 Kategoria Superiore Season
24 games played · 10 teams
Season Status
In Progress
Awaiting final results
Title Favorite
Egnatia
39.18% chance to win the title
Biggest Overachiever
Dinamo City
4.95 points above expected
12 points · 7.05 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Vllaznia
4.78 points below expected
2 points · 6.78 expected points
League Table
Each team's record through games played. SimPts is the model's expected points through the same games — the sum over completed games of pregame win-probability × 3 plus tie-probability × 1. vsSim shows actual points minus that expectation — positive means the team has overachieved against the model so far.
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egnatia | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 8.26 | +3.74 |
| 2 | Dinamo City | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7.05 | +4.95 |
| 3 | Teuta | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 5.75 | +4.25 |
| 4 | Laci | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6.61 | +0.39 |
| 5 | AF Elbasani | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6.27 | -0.27 |
| 6 | KF Tirana | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 5.45 | -0.45 |
| 7 | Partizani | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6.35 | -2.35 |
| 8 | Vora | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 6.07 | -2.07 |
| 9 | Skenderbeu | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6.07 | -3.07 |
| 10 | Vllaznia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6.78 | -4.78 |
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.
Biggest Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo City | 12 | 7.05 | +4.95 |
| 2 | Teuta | 10 | 5.75 | +4.25 |
| 3 | Egnatia | 12 | 8.26 | +3.74 |
| 4 | Laci | 7 | 6.61 | +0.39 |
| 5 | AF Elbasani | 6 | 6.27 | -0.27 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vllaznia | 2 | 6.78 | -4.78 |
| 2 | Skenderbeu | 3 | 6.07 | -3.07 |
| 3 | Partizani | 4 | 6.35 | -2.35 |
| 4 | Vora | 4 | 6.07 | -2.07 |
| 5 | KF Tirana | 5 | 5.45 | -0.45 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.
Most Unlikely Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo City | 4 | Aug 31 – Sep 19 | 1 in 61 |
| 2 | Teuta | 3 | Sep 5 – Sep 18 | 1 in 16 |
| 3 | Egnatia | 3 | Aug 23 – Sep 4 | 1 in 13 |
| 4 | AF Elbasani | 1 | Sep 13 – Sep 13 | 1 in 4 |
| 5 | Partizani | 1 | Sep 5 – Sep 5 | 1 in 4 |
Most Unlikely Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vllaznia | 3 | Sep 5 – Sep 18 | 1 in 24 |
| 2 | Vora | 3 | Aug 31 – Sep 12 | 1 in 17 |
| 3 | Skenderbeu | 2 | Aug 31 – Sep 4 | 1 in 6 |
| 4 | Partizani | 2 | Sep 12 – Sep 20 | 1 in 6 |
| 5 | Egnatia | 1 | Sep 13 – Sep 13 | 1 in 4 |
Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo City | 4 | Aug 31 – Sep 19 | 1 in 5 |
| 2 | Teuta | 4 | Aug 22 – Sep 18 | 1 in 5 |
| 3 | KF Tirana | 3 | Sep 6 – Sep 20 | 1 in 3 |
| 4 | Egnatia | 3 | Aug 23 – Sep 4 | 1 in 3 |
| 5 | Laci | 2 | Aug 22 – Aug 29 | 1 in 2 |
Most Unlikely Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vllaznia | 5 | Aug 21 – Sep 18 | 1 in 9 |
| 2 | Skenderbeu | 5 | Aug 21 – Sep 19 | 1 in 6 |
| 3 | Vora | 4 | Aug 31 – Sep 19 | 1 in 4 |
| 4 | AF Elbasani | 3 | Aug 22 – Sep 6 | 1 in 4 |
| 5 | Partizani | 2 | Aug 22 – Aug 29 | 1 in 3 |
Position Race
Each team’s league position across the whole season. The current top 3 and bottom 3 are highlighted; everyone else is gray as context.
Recent Elo Movers
Which teams are the hottest and coldest over the last 14 days according to their Elo ratings?
Biggest Elo Gainers
| # | Team | Δ Elo | Current Elo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AF Elbasani | +0.00 | 1261 |
| 2 | Dinamo City | +0.00 | 1313 |
| 3 | Egnatia | +0.00 | 1332 |
| 4 | KF Tirana | +0.00 | 1267 |
| 5 | Laci | +0.00 | 1233 |
Biggest Elo Losers
| # | Team | Δ Elo | Current Elo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AF Elbasani | +0.00 | 1261 |
| 2 | Dinamo City | +0.00 | 1313 |
| 3 | Egnatia | +0.00 | 1332 |
| 4 | KF Tirana | +0.00 | 1267 |
| 5 | Laci | +0.00 | 1233 |
Recent Form
Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.
| Team | Elo | Season Pts | Form | Elo Δ (5) | Points (5) | Expected (5) | Actual − Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo City | 1313 | 12 | +62 | 12 | 7.1 | +4.9 | |
| Egnatia | 1332 | 12 | +67 | 12 | 8.3 | +3.7 | |
| Teuta | 1321 | 10 | +79 | 10 | 5.7 | +4.3 | |
| Laci | 1233 | 7 | -6 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | |
| AF Elbasani | 1261 | 6 | +4 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | |
| KF Tirana | 1267 | 5 | +20 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | |
| Partizani | 1210 | 4 | -36 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | |
| Vora | 1161 | 4 | -89 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | |
| Skenderbeu | 1208 | 3 | -26 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | |
| Vllaznia | 1183 | 2 | -74 | 2 | 6.8 | -4.8 |
Upcoming Matches
The next slate of games with the model’s win / draw probabilities and an excitement rating (0–100). Beside each team: record · pre-game Elo.
| Date | Favored By | Home | Win% – Draw% – Win% | Away | Favored By | Excitement | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 0.41 | Teuta | 10 pts·1243 | 44% – 31% – 26% | KF Tirana | 5 pts·1208 | 49.2 |
Recent Matches
The most recent results with an excitement rating (0–100). Beside each team: record · pre-game Elo · Elo change.
| Date | Favored By | Home | Score | Away | Favored By | Excitement | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 0.17 | KF Tirana | 5 pts·1267·-0.67 | 2 – 2 | AF Elbasani | 6 pts·1261·+0.68 | 58.2 | |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.94 | Egnatia | 12 pts·1322·+10.00 | 2 – 1 | Partizani | 4 pts·1220·-10.00 | 42.2 | |
| 2026-09-19 | 0.40 | Dinamo City | 12 pts·1291·+22.13 | 3 – 1 | Laci | 7 pts·1255·-22.13 | 41.1 | |
| 2026-09-19 | Vora | 4 pts·1161·+0.42 | 1 – 1 | Skenderbeu | 3 pts·1208·-0.42 | 0.27 | 50.6 | |
| 2026-09-18 | Vllaznia | 2 pts·1210·-26.55 | 0 – 2 | Teuta | 10 pts·1295·+26.54 | 0.57 | 34.2 | |
| 2026-09-13 | AF Elbasani | 6 pts·1242·+18.79 | 2 – 1 | Egnatia | 12 pts·1341·-18.80 | 0.69 | 50.2 | |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.00 | Laci | 7 pts·1225·+30.02 | 2 – 0 | Vllaznia | 2 pts·1240·-30.01 | 35.7 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
| Team | AE | DC | EGN | KT | LAC | PAR | SKE | TEU | VLL | VOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF Elbasani | — |
0-0-1
1.24
|
1-0-0
1.07
|
0-1-0
1.19
|
0-1-0
1.29
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-1-0
1.47
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Dinamo City |
1-0-0
1.45
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.61
|
1-0-0
1.30
|
1-0-0
1.21
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
1.48
|
| Egnatia |
0-0-1
1.62
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
1-0-0
1.55
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.84
|
1-0-0
1.88
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.37
|
| KF Tirana |
0-1-0
1.50
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
1.15
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-1-0
1.47
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.33
|
| Laci |
0-1-0
1.40
|
0-0-1
1.08
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
1-0-0
1.19
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
1.52
|
1-0-0
1.41
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Partizani |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
1.39
|
0-0-1
0.87
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
1.50
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-1-0
1.49
|
1-0-0
1.10
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Skenderbeu |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
1.48
|
0-0-1
0.83
|
0-1-0
1.22
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-1-0
1.13
|
0-1-0
1.42
|
| Teuta |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.17
|
0-1-0
1.20
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
1-0-0
1.57
|
1-0-0
1.81
|
| Vllaznia |
0-1-0
1.22
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
1.28
|
0-0-1
1.59
|
0-1-0
1.57
|
0-0-1
1.12
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Vora |
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.22
|
0-0-1
1.32
|
0-0-1
1.36
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-1-0
1.27
|
0-0-1
0.89
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential
Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).
Fit Metrics
| R² | Slope | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 0.71 | +13.2 |
| Allowed | 0.55 | -9.5 |
| Differential | 0.80 | +7.2 |
Scoreline Distribution
Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.17% | 4.17% | 6.25% | 2.08% | 2.08% | — | 18.75% |
| 1 | 4.17% | 16.67% | 10.42% | 6.25% | — | — | 37.50% |
| 2 | 6.25% | 10.42% | 8.33% | 2.08% | 2.08% | — | 29.17% |
| 3 | 2.08% | 6.25% | 2.08% | — | — | — | 10.42% |
| 4 | 2.08% | — | 2.08% | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 18.75% | 37.50% | 29.17% | 10.42% | 4.17% | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.44 | 1.44 | +0.00 |
| SD | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.61 |
| CV | 0.73 | 0.73 | — |
| Max | 4 | 4 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | 40.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 60.00% |
| 2 | — | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 60.00% | 40.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| SD | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| CV | 0.39 | 0.39 | — |
| Max | 2 | 2 | +1 |
| Min | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 2 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 3 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 4 | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 20.00% | 60.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.00 | 1.00 | +1.00 |
| SD | 1.58 | 0.71 | 1.22 |
| CV | 0.79 | 0.71 | — |
| Max | 4 | 2 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -1 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 2 | — | 40.00% | — | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 3 | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 20.00% | 60.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.20 | 1.00 | +1.20 |
| SD | 0.84 | 0.71 | 1.48 |
| CV | 0.38 | 0.71 | — |
| Max | 3 | 2 | +3 |
| Min | 1 | 0 | -1 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | 25.00% | — | — | 25.00% |
| 1 | — | 25.00% | — | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 2 | — | — | 25.00% | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | 25.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.75 | 1.50 | +0.25 |
| SD | 1.71 | 1.29 | 2.87 |
| CV | 0.98 | 0.86 | — |
| Max | 4 | 3 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 4
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | 20.00% | — | 40.00% | — | — | 60.00% |
| 2 | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 20.00% | 40.00% | — | 40.00% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.40 | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| SD | 0.55 | 1.34 | 1.79 |
| CV | 0.39 | 0.84 | — |
| Max | 2 | 3 | +2 |
| Min | 1 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | — | — | 40.00% | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | 20.00% |
| 3 | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 20.00% | — | 60.00% | — | 20.00% | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.40 | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| SD | 1.14 | 1.41 | 1.14 |
| CV | 0.81 | 0.71 | — |
| Max | 3 | 4 | +1 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | — | 40.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 60.00% |
| 2 | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 60.00% | 40.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| SD | 0.71 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| CV | 0.71 | 0.39 | — |
| Max | 2 | 2 | +0 |
| Min | 0 | 1 | -1 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | 50.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 50.00% |
| 3 | — | 25.00% | — | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 75.00% | 25.00% | — | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.75 | 0.25 | +1.50 |
| SD | 1.26 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| CV | 0.72 | 2.00 | — |
| Max | 3 | 1 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | +0 |
Games Played: 4
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | 40.00% | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 1 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 2 | — | — | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | 40.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 20.00% | 60.00% | 20.00% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| SD | 1.00 | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| CV | 1.00 | 0.35 | — |
| Max | 2 | 3 | +0 |
| Min | 0 | 1 | -2 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | 20.00% | — | 20.00% | — | 40.00% |
| 1 | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | 20.00% | — | — | 60.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.60 | 2.00 | -1.40 |
| SD | 0.55 | 1.58 | 1.95 |
| CV | 0.91 | 0.79 | — |
| Max | 1 | 4 | +1 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 5
Season Summary
Every team's season-to-date record alongside the projected end-of-season points totals from 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Exp. Pts. Rem. is the expected additional points the model thinks the team will accumulate over the rest of the season.
| Team | Elo | Points | Avg | Exp. Pts. Rem. | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia | 1332 | 12 | 33.52 | 21.52 | 18 | 26 | 30 | 34 | 37 | 41 | 49 |
| Teuta | 1321 | 10 | 32.49 | 22.49 | 16 | 25 | 29 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 49 |
| Dinamo City | 1313 | 12 | 32.35 | 20.35 | 16 | 25 | 29 | 32 | 35 | 40 | 49 |
| KF Tirana | 1267 | 5 | 24.93 | 19.93 | 10 | 17 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 33 | 45 |
| AF Elbasani | 1261 | 6 | 24.71 | 18.71 | 9 | 17 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 32 | 42 |
| Laci | 1233 | 7 | 23.62 | 16.62 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 | 41 |
| Partizani | 1210 | 4 | 19.73 | 15.73 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 27 | 36 |
| Skenderbeu | 1208 | 3 | 18.37 | 15.37 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 26 | 36 |
| Vllaznia | 1183 | 2 | 15.75 | 13.75 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 31 |
| Vora | 1161 | 4 | 17.51 | 13.51 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 25 | 35 |
Point Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.
Season metrics are available for completed seasons.
Final Table Odds
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia | 39.18% | 29.26% | 18.79% | 8.16% | 3.11% | 1.10% | 0.35% | 0.05% | — | — |
| Dinamo City | 25.67% | 29.27% | 25.87% | 11.45% | 5.09% | 1.87% | 0.62% | 0.14% | 0.02% | — |
| Teuta | 31.04% | 27.95% | 22.53% | 10.43% | 5.09% | 1.93% | 0.72% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| Laci | 0.83% | 2.77% | 7.05% | 15.35% | 20.81% | 22.08% | 14.89% | 9.52% | 4.68% | 2.02% |
| AF Elbasani | 1.48% | 4.45% | 10.43% | 20.76% | 22.36% | 17.82% | 11.57% | 6.60% | 3.14% | 1.39% |
| KF Tirana | 1.68% | 5.42% | 12.08% | 22.91% | 20.47% | 16.60% | 10.44% | 5.92% | 3.24% | 1.24% |
| Partizani | 0.02% | 0.47% | 1.67% | 4.87% | 9.16% | 14.80% | 20.49% | 20.05% | 17.37% | 11.10% |
| Vora | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.50% | 2.07% | 4.64% | 7.69% | 13.85% | 19.69% | 24.00% | 27.45% |
| Skenderbeu | 0.08% | 0.29% | 0.96% | 3.08% | 6.84% | 11.30% | 18.24% | 21.44% | 21.78% | 15.99% |
| Vllaznia | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.92% | 2.43% | 4.81% | 8.83% | 16.35% | 25.71% | 40.80% |
Points Required Per Position
The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.
Next-Season Status
Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | Same level | Lost relegation playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Egnatia | 99.98% | 0.02% |
| Dinamo City | 99.97% | 0.03% |
| Teuta | 99.95% | 0.05% |
| KF Tirana | 98.33% | 1.67% |
| AF Elbasani | 98.00% | 2.00% |
| Laci | 96.39% | 3.61% |
| Partizani | 87.25% | 12.75% |
| Skenderbeu | 82.46% | 17.54% |
| Vora | 70.35% | 29.65% |
| Vllaznia | 67.32% | 32.68% |
Overall Game Log
Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Excitement | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Proj. Margin | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Skenderbeu | D 2-2 | 58.1 | 1258 | 1234 | 41.99% | 30.68% | 27.33% | +0.31 | -1.0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | @ Vllaznia | D 2-2 | 58.1 | 1234 | 1258 | 27.33% | 30.68% | 41.99% | -0.31 | +1.0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | AF Elbasani | D 1-1 | 50.9 | 1239 | 1257 | 36.28% | 30.91% | 32.81% | -0.03 | -0.3 | 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | @ Laci | D 1-1 | 50.9 | 1257 | 1239 | 32.81% | 30.91% | 36.28% | +0.03 | +0.3 | 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Teuta | D 0-0 | 46.1 | 1246 | 1242 | 39.34% | 30.83% | 29.83% | +0.15 | -0.9 | 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | @ Partizani | D 0-0 | 46.1 | 1242 | 1246 | 29.83% | 30.83% | 39.34% | -0.15 | +1.0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | Vora | L 0-1 | 41.8 | 1251 | 1251 | 38.89% | 30.85% | 30.26% | +0.12 | -18.2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | @ Dinamo City | W 1-0 | 41.8 | 1251 | 1251 | 30.26% | 30.85% | 38.89% | -0.12 | +18.2 | 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | KF Tirana | W 3-0 | 33.1 | 1266 | 1247 | 41.35% | 30.72% | 27.93% | +0.27 | +39.2 | 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | @ Egnatia | L 0-3 | 33.1 | 1247 | 1266 | 27.93% | 30.72% | 41.35% | -0.27 | -39.2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Vllaznia | D 1-1 | 50.9 | 1257 | 1257 | 38.88% | 30.85% | 30.27% | +0.12 | -0.8 | 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | @ AF Elbasani | D 1-1 | 50.9 | 1257 | 1257 | 30.27% | 30.85% | 38.88% | -0.12 | +0.8 | 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | Laci | L 1-2 | 48.5 | 1245 | 1239 | 39.74% | 30.81% | 29.45% | +0.17 | -17.4 | 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | @ Partizani | W 2-1 | 48.5 | 1239 | 1245 | 29.45% | 30.81% | 39.74% | -0.17 | +17.4 | 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Dinamo City | L 0-1 | 41.8 | 1235 | 1233 | 39.09% | 30.84% | 30.07% | +0.13 | -18.2 | 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | @ Skenderbeu | W 1-0 | 41.8 | 1233 | 1235 | 30.07% | 30.84% | 39.09% | -0.13 | +18.2 | 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | Egnatia | L 1-3 | 43.7 | 1269 | 1305 | 33.69% | 30.92% | 35.39% | -0.18 | -26.8 | 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | @ Vora | W 3-1 | 43.7 | 1305 | 1269 | 35.39% | 30.92% | 33.69% | +0.18 | +26.8 | 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | Skenderbeu | W 2-1 | 41.8 | 1332 | 1217 | 52.86% | 29.22% | 17.92% | +1.05 | +9.5 | 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | @ Egnatia | L 1-2 | 41.8 | 1217 | 1332 | 17.92% | 29.22% | 52.86% | -1.05 | -9.5 | 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Teuta | L 1-3 | 45.4 | 1256 | 1243 | 40.52% | 30.77% | 28.71% | +0.22 | -30.6 | 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | @ Laci | W 3-1 | 45.4 | 1243 | 1256 | 28.71% | 30.77% | 40.52% | -0.22 | +30.6 | 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Partizani | L 2-3 | 55.6 | 1257 | 1228 | 42.76% | 30.63% | 26.61% | +0.36 | -17.5 | 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | @ Vllaznia | W 3-2 | 55.6 | 1228 | 1257 | 26.61% | 30.63% | 42.76% | -0.36 | +17.5 | 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | AF Elbasani | W 2-1 | 46.0 | 1251 | 1256 | 38.08% | 30.87% | 31.04% | +0.07 | +14.6 | 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | @ Dinamo City | L 1-2 | 46.0 | 1256 | 1251 | 31.04% | 30.87% | 38.08% | -0.07 | -14.6 | 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | Vora | W 4-0 | 36.0 | 1208 | 1242 | 33.97% | 30.92% | 35.11% | -0.16 | +60.3 | 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | @ KF Tirana | L 0-4 | 36.0 | 1242 | 1208 | 35.11% | 30.92% | 33.97% | +0.16 | -60.3 | 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | KF Tirana | D 1-1 | 50.8 | 1207 | 1268 | 30.33% | 30.85% | 38.82% | -0.37 | +0.8 | 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | @ Skenderbeu | D 1-1 | 50.8 | 1268 | 1207 | 38.82% | 30.85% | 30.33% | +0.37 | -0.8 | 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Dinamo City | L 2-4 | 48.4 | 1245 | 1266 | 35.95% | 30.92% | 33.13% | -0.05 | -25.0 | 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Partizani | W 4-2 | 48.4 | 1266 | 1245 | 33.13% | 30.92% | 35.95% | +0.05 | +25.0 | 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | Vora | W 2-0 | 31.6 | 1274 | 1182 | 50.39% | 29.69% | 19.91% | +0.87 | +20.8 | 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Teuta | L 0-2 | 31.6 | 1182 | 1274 | 19.91% | 29.69% | 50.39% | -0.87 | -20.8 | 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | Egnatia | W 2-1 | 50.2 | 1242 | 1341 | 25.52% | 30.53% | 43.96% | -0.69 | +18.8 | 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | @ AF Elbasani | L 1-2 | 50.2 | 1341 | 1242 | 43.96% | 30.53% | 25.52% | +0.69 | -18.8 | 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | Vllaznia | W 2-0 | 35.7 | 1225 | 1240 | 36.77% | 30.91% | 32.33% | +0.00 | +30.0 | 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | @ Laci | L 0-2 | 35.7 | 1240 | 1225 | 32.33% | 30.91% | 36.77% | +0.00 | -30.0 | 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | Teuta | L 0-2 | 34.2 | 1210 | 1295 | 27.26% | 30.68% | 42.06% | -0.57 | -26.5 | 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | @ Vllaznia | W 2-0 | 34.2 | 1295 | 1210 | 42.06% | 30.68% | 27.26% | +0.57 | +26.5 | 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | Laci | W 3-1 | 41.1 | 1291 | 1255 | 43.54% | 30.56% | 25.90% | +0.40 | +22.1 | 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Dinamo City | L 1-3 | 41.1 | 1255 | 1291 | 25.90% | 30.56% | 43.54% | -0.40 | -22.1 | 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | Skenderbeu | D 1-1 | 50.6 | 1161 | 1208 | 32.15% | 30.90% | 36.95% | -0.27 | +0.4 | 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Vora | D 1-1 | 50.6 | 1208 | 1161 | 36.95% | 30.90% | 32.15% | +0.27 | -0.4 | 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | AF Elbasani | D 2-2 | 58.2 | 1267 | 1261 | 39.71% | 30.81% | 29.48% | +0.17 | -0.7 | 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KF Tirana | D 2-2 | 58.2 | 1261 | 1267 | 29.48% | 30.81% | 39.71% | -0.17 | +0.7 | 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | Partizani | W 2-1 | 42.2 | 1322 | 1220 | 51.48% | 29.50% | 19.03% | +0.94 | +10.0 | 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | @ Egnatia | L 1-2 | 42.2 | 1220 | 1322 | 19.03% | 29.50% | 51.48% | -0.94 | -10.0 | 4 |
Upcoming Games
Remaining games on the team's schedule
| Date | Opponent | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Proj. Margin | Excitement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | KF Tirana | 1243 | 1208 | 43.56% | 30.56% | 25.88% | +0.41 | 49.2 |
| 2026-08-30 | @ Teuta | 1208 | 1243 | 25.88% | 30.56% | 43.56% | -0.41 | 49.2 |
| 2026-10-11 | Vora | 1261 | 1161 | 51.26% | 29.54% | 19.20% | +0.93 | 27.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | @ AF Elbasani | 1161 | 1261 | 19.20% | 29.54% | 51.26% | -0.93 | 27.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | Egnatia | 1233 | 1332 | 25.54% | 30.53% | 43.93% | -0.69 | 39.4 |
| 2026-10-11 | @ Laci | 1332 | 1233 | 43.93% | 30.53% | 25.54% | +0.69 | 39.4 |
| 2026-10-11 | KF Tirana | 1210 | 1267 | 30.93% | 30.87% | 38.20% | -0.34 | 43.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | @ Partizani | 1267 | 1210 | 38.20% | 30.87% | 30.93% | +0.34 | 43.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | Skenderbeu | 1321 | 1208 | 52.73% | 29.24% | 18.03% | +1.04 | 30.6 |
| 2026-10-11 | @ Teuta | 1208 | 1321 | 18.03% | 29.24% | 52.73% | -1.04 | 30.6 |
| 2026-10-11 | Dinamo City | 1183 | 1313 | 22.20% | 30.11% | 47.69% | -0.93 | 32.2 |
| 2026-10-11 | @ Vllaznia | 1313 | 1183 | 47.69% | 30.11% | 22.20% | +0.93 | 32.2 |
| 2026-10-17 | Teuta | 1313 | 1321 | 37.66% | 30.88% | 31.45% | +0.05 | 57.4 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Dinamo City | 1321 | 1313 | 31.45% | 30.88% | 37.66% | -0.05 | 57.4 |
| 2026-10-17 | Laci | 1267 | 1233 | 43.26% | 30.59% | 26.15% | +0.39 | 47.5 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ KF Tirana | 1233 | 1267 | 26.15% | 30.59% | 43.26% | -0.39 | 47.5 |
| 2026-10-17 | Vllaznia | 1332 | 1183 | 56.35% | 28.37% | 15.28% | +1.32 | 31.3 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Egnatia | 1183 | 1332 | 15.28% | 28.37% | 56.35% | -1.32 | 31.3 |
| 2026-10-17 | AF Elbasani | 1208 | 1261 | 31.27% | 30.88% | 37.85% | -0.32 | 38.1 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Skenderbeu | 1261 | 1208 | 37.85% | 30.88% | 31.27% | +0.32 | 38.1 |
| 2026-10-17 | Partizani | 1161 | 1210 | 31.89% | 30.90% | 37.21% | -0.28 | 36.5 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Vora | 1210 | 1161 | 37.21% | 30.90% | 31.89% | +0.28 | 36.5 |
| 2026-10-24 | Egnatia | 1313 | 1332 | 36.09% | 30.92% | 33.00% | -0.04 | 57.3 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Dinamo City | 1332 | 1313 | 33.00% | 30.92% | 36.09% | +0.04 | 57.3 |
| 2026-10-24 | Vora | 1233 | 1161 | 48.05% | 30.06% | 21.89% | +0.70 | 31.2 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Laci | 1161 | 1233 | 21.89% | 30.06% | 48.05% | -0.70 | 31.2 |
| 2026-10-24 | Skenderbeu | 1210 | 1208 | 39.18% | 30.83% | 29.99% | +0.14 | 48.1 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Partizani | 1208 | 1210 | 29.99% | 30.83% | 39.18% | -0.14 | 48.1 |
| 2026-10-24 | AF Elbasani | 1321 | 1261 | 46.59% | 30.25% | 23.16% | +0.60 | 42.0 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Teuta | 1261 | 1321 | 23.16% | 30.25% | 46.59% | -0.60 | 42.0 |
| 2026-10-24 | KF Tirana | 1183 | 1267 | 27.46% | 30.69% | 41.85% | -0.56 | 35.2 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Vllaznia | 1267 | 1183 | 41.85% | 30.69% | 27.46% | +0.56 | 35.2 |
| 2026-10-28 | Partizani | 1261 | 1210 | 45.50% | 30.38% | 24.13% | +0.53 | 40.8 |
| 2026-10-28 | @ AF Elbasani | 1210 | 1261 | 24.13% | 30.38% | 45.50% | -0.53 | 40.8 |
| 2026-10-28 | Dinamo City | 1267 | 1313 | 32.26% | 30.90% | 36.83% | -0.26 | 49.3 |
| 2026-10-28 | @ KF Tirana | 1313 | 1267 | 36.83% | 30.90% | 32.26% | +0.26 | 49.3 |
| 2026-10-28 | Teuta | 1332 | 1321 | 40.33% | 30.78% | 28.89% | +0.21 | 57.9 |
| 2026-10-28 | @ Egnatia | 1321 | 1332 | 28.89% | 30.78% | 40.33% | -0.21 | 57.9 |
| 2026-10-28 | Laci | 1208 | 1233 | 35.21% | 30.92% | 33.86% | -0.09 | 43.9 |
| 2026-10-28 | @ Skenderbeu | 1233 | 1208 | 33.86% | 30.92% | 35.21% | +0.09 | 43.9 |
| 2026-10-28 | Vllaznia | 1161 | 1183 | 35.70% | 30.92% | 33.38% | -0.06 | 40.5 |
| 2026-10-28 | @ Vora | 1183 | 1161 | 33.38% | 30.92% | 35.70% | +0.06 | 40.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | Laci | 1261 | 1233 | 42.58% | 30.64% | 26.78% | +0.35 | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | @ AF Elbasani | 1233 | 1261 | 26.78% | 30.64% | 42.58% | -0.35 | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | Egnatia | 1267 | 1332 | 29.65% | 30.82% | 39.53% | -0.42 | 46.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | @ KF Tirana | 1332 | 1267 | 39.53% | 30.82% | 29.65% | +0.42 | 46.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | Vllaznia | 1208 | 1183 | 42.07% | 30.68% | 27.25% | +0.31 | 41.4 |
| 2026-11-01 | @ Skenderbeu | 1183 | 1208 | 27.25% | 30.68% | 42.07% | -0.31 | 41.4 |
| 2026-11-01 | Partizani | 1321 | 1210 | 52.44% | 29.30% | 18.26% | +1.02 | 33.9 |
| 2026-11-01 | @ Teuta | 1210 | 1321 | 18.26% | 29.30% | 52.44% | -1.02 | 33.9 |
| 2026-11-01 | Dinamo City | 1161 | 1313 | 20.02% | 29.72% | 50.26% | -1.11 | 27.8 |
| 2026-11-01 | @ Vora | 1313 | 1161 | 50.26% | 29.72% | 20.02% | +1.11 | 27.8 |
| 2026-11-07 | Skenderbeu | 1313 | 1208 | 51.83% | 29.43% | 18.74% | +0.97 | 33.3 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Dinamo City | 1208 | 1313 | 18.74% | 29.43% | 51.83% | -0.97 | 33.3 |
| 2026-11-07 | Partizani | 1233 | 1210 | 41.90% | 30.69% | 27.42% | +0.30 | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Laci | 1210 | 1233 | 27.42% | 30.69% | 41.90% | -0.30 | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-07 | Teuta | 1267 | 1321 | 31.14% | 30.88% | 37.99% | -0.33 | 46.2 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ KF Tirana | 1321 | 1267 | 37.99% | 30.88% | 31.14% | +0.33 | 46.2 |
| 2026-11-07 | Vora | 1332 | 1161 | 58.47% | 27.74% | 13.79% | +1.50 | 27.2 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Egnatia | 1161 | 1332 | 13.79% | 27.74% | 58.47% | -1.50 | 27.2 |
| 2026-11-07 | AF Elbasani | 1183 | 1261 | 28.11% | 30.74% | 41.16% | -0.51 | 33.5 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Vllaznia | 1261 | 1183 | 41.16% | 30.74% | 28.11% | +0.51 | 33.5 |
| 2026-11-22 | Dinamo City | 1261 | 1313 | 31.55% | 30.89% | 37.56% | -0.30 | 46.1 |
| 2026-11-22 | @ AF Elbasani | 1313 | 1261 | 37.56% | 30.89% | 31.55% | +0.30 | 46.1 |
| 2026-11-22 | Vllaznia | 1210 | 1183 | 42.43% | 30.65% | 26.92% | +0.34 | 43.2 |
| 2026-11-22 | @ Partizani | 1183 | 1210 | 26.92% | 30.65% | 42.43% | -0.34 | 43.2 |
| 2026-11-22 | Egnatia | 1208 | 1332 | 22.70% | 30.19% | 47.11% | -0.89 | 34.2 |
| 2026-11-22 | @ Skenderbeu | 1332 | 1208 | 47.11% | 30.19% | 22.70% | +0.89 | 34.2 |
| 2026-11-22 | Laci | 1321 | 1233 | 49.91% | 29.78% | 20.32% | +0.83 | 36.9 |
| 2026-11-22 | @ Teuta | 1233 | 1321 | 20.32% | 29.78% | 49.91% | -0.83 | 36.9 |
| 2026-11-22 | KF Tirana | 1161 | 1267 | 24.83% | 30.46% | 44.72% | -0.74 | 29.5 |
| 2026-11-22 | @ Vora | 1267 | 1161 | 44.72% | 30.46% | 24.83% | +0.74 | 29.5 |
| 2026-11-28 | Partizani | 1313 | 1210 | 51.54% | 29.48% | 18.98% | +0.95 | 36.5 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Dinamo City | 1210 | 1313 | 18.98% | 29.48% | 51.54% | -0.95 | 36.5 |
| 2026-11-28 | Skenderbeu | 1267 | 1208 | 46.47% | 30.26% | 23.26% | +0.59 | 38.8 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ KF Tirana | 1208 | 1267 | 23.26% | 30.26% | 46.47% | -0.59 | 38.8 |
| 2026-11-28 | AF Elbasani | 1332 | 1261 | 47.94% | 30.08% | 21.99% | +0.69 | 42.9 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Egnatia | 1261 | 1332 | 21.99% | 30.08% | 47.94% | -0.69 | 42.9 |
| 2026-11-28 | Laci | 1183 | 1233 | 31.80% | 30.89% | 37.31% | -0.29 | 38.7 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Vllaznia | 1233 | 1183 | 37.31% | 30.89% | 31.80% | +0.29 | 38.7 |
| 2026-11-28 | Teuta | 1161 | 1321 | 19.26% | 29.55% | 51.19% | -1.18 | 25.8 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Vora | 1321 | 1161 | 51.19% | 29.55% | 19.26% | +1.18 | 25.8 |
| 2026-12-02 | KF Tirana | 1261 | 1267 | 38.08% | 30.87% | 31.04% | +0.08 | 53.5 |
| 2026-12-02 | @ AF Elbasani | 1267 | 1261 | 31.04% | 30.87% | 38.08% | -0.08 | 53.5 |
| 2026-12-02 | Dinamo City | 1233 | 1313 | 27.88% | 30.72% | 41.40% | -0.53 | 40.8 |
| 2026-12-02 | @ Laci | 1313 | 1233 | 41.40% | 30.72% | 27.88% | +0.53 | 40.8 |
| 2026-12-02 | Egnatia | 1210 | 1332 | 22.99% | 30.23% | 46.79% | -0.87 | 37.1 |
| 2026-12-02 | @ Partizani | 1332 | 1210 | 46.79% | 30.23% | 22.99% | +0.87 | 37.1 |
| 2026-12-02 | Vora | 1208 | 1161 | 44.93% | 30.44% | 24.64% | +0.49 | 34.8 |
| 2026-12-02 | @ Skenderbeu | 1161 | 1208 | 24.64% | 30.44% | 44.93% | -0.49 | 34.8 |
| 2026-12-02 | Vllaznia | 1321 | 1183 | 55.24% | 28.66% | 16.10% | +1.23 | 28.6 |
| 2026-12-02 | @ Teuta | 1183 | 1321 | 16.10% | 28.66% | 55.24% | -1.23 | 28.6 |
| 2026-12-06 | Vllaznia | 1313 | 1183 | 54.40% | 28.87% | 16.73% | +1.17 | 31.0 |
| 2026-12-06 | @ Dinamo City | 1183 | 1313 | 16.73% | 28.87% | 54.40% | -1.17 | 31.0 |
| 2026-12-06 | Partizani | 1267 | 1210 | 46.15% | 30.30% | 23.55% | +0.57 | 42.3 |
| 2026-12-06 | @ KF Tirana | 1210 | 1267 | 23.55% | 30.30% | 46.15% | -0.57 | 42.3 |
| 2026-12-06 | Laci | 1332 | 1233 | 51.16% | 29.56% | 19.29% | +0.92 | 38.4 |
| 2026-12-06 | @ Egnatia | 1233 | 1332 | 19.29% | 29.56% | 51.16% | -0.92 | 38.4 |
| 2026-12-06 | Teuta | 1208 | 1321 | 23.90% | 30.35% | 45.75% | -0.80 | 31.7 |
| 2026-12-06 | @ Skenderbeu | 1321 | 1208 | 45.75% | 30.35% | 23.90% | +0.80 | 31.7 |
| 2026-12-06 | AF Elbasani | 1161 | 1261 | 25.43% | 30.52% | 44.05% | -0.69 | 28.0 |
| 2026-12-06 | @ Vora | 1261 | 1161 | 44.05% | 30.52% | 25.43% | +0.69 | 28.0 |
| 2026-12-12 | Skenderbeu | 1261 | 1208 | 45.83% | 30.34% | 23.83% | +0.55 | 37.4 |
| 2026-12-12 | @ AF Elbasani | 1208 | 1261 | 23.83% | 30.34% | 45.83% | -0.55 | 37.4 |
| 2026-12-12 | KF Tirana | 1233 | 1267 | 34.10% | 30.92% | 34.97% | -0.15 | 47.9 |
| 2026-12-12 | @ Laci | 1267 | 1233 | 34.97% | 30.92% | 34.10% | +0.15 | 47.9 |
| 2026-12-12 | Vora | 1210 | 1161 | 45.26% | 30.40% | 24.34% | +0.52 | 35.9 |
| 2026-12-12 | @ Partizani | 1161 | 1210 | 24.34% | 30.40% | 45.26% | -0.52 | 35.9 |
| 2026-12-12 | Dinamo City | 1321 | 1313 | 39.94% | 30.80% | 29.26% | +0.18 | 57.3 |
| 2026-12-12 | @ Teuta | 1313 | 1321 | 29.26% | 30.80% | 39.94% | -0.18 | 57.3 |
| 2026-12-12 | Egnatia | 1183 | 1332 | 20.28% | 29.77% | 49.95% | -1.09 | 32.6 |
| 2026-12-12 | @ Vllaznia | 1332 | 1183 | 49.95% | 29.77% | 20.28% | +1.09 | 32.6 |
| 2026-12-19 | Teuta | 1261 | 1321 | 30.44% | 30.85% | 38.71% | -0.37 | 42.8 |
| 2026-12-19 | @ AF Elbasani | 1321 | 1261 | 38.71% | 30.85% | 30.44% | +0.37 | 42.8 |
| 2026-12-19 | Vllaznia | 1267 | 1183 | 49.35% | 29.87% | 20.78% | +0.79 | 34.2 |
| 2026-12-19 | @ KF Tirana | 1183 | 1267 | 20.78% | 29.87% | 49.35% | -0.79 | 34.2 |
| 2026-12-19 | Dinamo City | 1332 | 1313 | 41.44% | 30.72% | 27.84% | +0.27 | 57.0 |
| 2026-12-19 | @ Egnatia | 1313 | 1332 | 27.84% | 30.72% | 41.44% | -0.27 | 57.0 |
| 2026-12-19 | Partizani | 1208 | 1210 | 38.44% | 30.86% | 30.70% | +0.10 | 48.1 |
| 2026-12-19 | @ Skenderbeu | 1210 | 1208 | 30.70% | 30.86% | 38.44% | -0.10 | 48.1 |
| 2026-12-19 | Laci | 1161 | 1233 | 28.86% | 30.78% | 40.36% | -0.47 | 32.1 |
| 2026-12-19 | @ Vora | 1233 | 1161 | 40.36% | 30.78% | 28.86% | +0.47 | 32.1 |
| 2026-12-23 | KF Tirana | 1313 | 1267 | 44.92% | 30.44% | 24.64% | +0.49 | 48.7 |
| 2026-12-23 | @ Dinamo City | 1267 | 1313 | 24.64% | 30.44% | 44.92% | -0.49 | 48.7 |
| 2026-12-23 | Skenderbeu | 1233 | 1208 | 42.25% | 30.66% | 27.09% | +0.32 | 43.5 |
| 2026-12-23 | @ Laci | 1208 | 1233 | 27.09% | 30.66% | 42.25% | -0.32 | 43.5 |
| 2026-12-23 | AF Elbasani | 1210 | 1261 | 31.63% | 30.89% | 37.48% | -0.30 | 41.5 |
| 2026-12-23 | @ Partizani | 1261 | 1210 | 37.48% | 30.89% | 31.63% | +0.30 | 41.5 |
| 2026-12-23 | Egnatia | 1321 | 1332 | 37.26% | 30.89% | 31.85% | +0.03 | 58.0 |
| 2026-12-23 | @ Teuta | 1332 | 1321 | 31.85% | 30.89% | 37.26% | -0.03 | 58.0 |
| 2026-12-23 | Vora | 1183 | 1161 | 41.80% | 30.69% | 27.50% | +0.30 | 40.2 |
| 2026-12-23 | @ Vllaznia | 1161 | 1183 | 27.50% | 30.69% | 41.80% | -0.30 | 40.2 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 2026-09-13 | 25.52% | @ AF Elbasani | 1242 | 2 | Egnatia | 1341 | 1 |
| 2 | 2026-09-05 | 26.61% | Partizani | 1228 | 3 | @ Vllaznia | 1257 | 2 |
| 3 | 2026-09-05 | 28.71% | Teuta | 1243 | 3 | @ Laci | 1256 | 1 |
| 4 | 2026-08-29 | 29.45% | Laci | 1239 | 2 | @ Partizani | 1245 | 1 |
| 5 | 2026-08-31 | 30.07% | Dinamo City | 1233 | 1 | @ Skenderbeu | 1235 | 0 |
| 6 | 2026-08-23 | 30.26% | Vora | 1251 | 1 | @ Dinamo City | 1251 | 0 |
| 7 | 2026-09-12 | 33.13% | Dinamo City | 1266 | 4 | @ Partizani | 1245 | 2 |
| 8 | 2026-09-06 | 33.97% | @ KF Tirana | 1208 | 4 | Vora | 1242 | 0 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2026-09-06 | 60.32 | @ KF Tirana | 4 | 1208 | 33.97% | Vora | 0 | 1242 | 35.11% | 30.92% |
| 2 | 2026-08-23 | 39.25 | @ Egnatia | 3 | 1266 | 41.35% | KF Tirana | 0 | 1247 | 27.93% | 30.72% |
| 3 | 2026-09-05 | 30.56 | Teuta | 3 | 1243 | 28.71% | @ Laci | 1 | 1256 | 40.52% | 30.77% |
| 4 | 2026-09-13 | 30.02 | @ Laci | 2 | 1225 | 36.77% | Vllaznia | 0 | 1240 | 32.33% | 30.91% |
| 5 | 2026-08-31 | 26.75 | Egnatia | 3 | 1305 | 35.39% | @ Vora | 1 | 1269 | 33.69% | 30.92% |
| 6 | 2026-09-18 | 26.55 | Teuta | 2 | 1295 | 42.06% | @ Vllaznia | 0 | 1210 | 27.26% | 30.68% |
| 7 | 2026-09-12 | 25.04 | Dinamo City | 4 | 1266 | 33.13% | @ Partizani | 2 | 1245 | 35.95% | 30.92% |
| 8 | 2026-09-19 | 22.13 | @ Dinamo City | 3 | 1291 | 43.54% | Laci | 1 | 1255 | 25.90% | 30.56% |
| 9 | 2026-09-12 | 20.78 | @ Teuta | 2 | 1274 | 50.39% | Vora | 0 | 1182 | 19.91% | 29.69% |
| 10 | 2026-09-13 | 18.80 | @ AF Elbasani | 2 | 1242 | 25.52% | Egnatia | 1 | 1341 | 43.96% | 30.53% |
| 11 | 2026-08-31 | 18.22 | Dinamo City | 1 | 1233 | 30.07% | @ Skenderbeu | 0 | 1235 | 39.09% | 30.84% |
| 12 | 2026-08-23 | 18.15 | Vora | 1 | 1251 | 30.26% | @ Dinamo City | 0 | 1251 | 38.89% | 30.85% |
| 13 | 2026-09-05 | 17.45 | Partizani | 3 | 1228 | 26.61% | @ Vllaznia | 2 | 1257 | 42.76% | 30.63% |
| 14 | 2026-08-29 | 17.39 | Laci | 2 | 1239 | 29.45% | @ Partizani | 1 | 1245 | 39.74% | 30.81% |
| 15 | 2026-09-06 | 14.58 | @ Dinamo City | 2 | 1251 | 38.08% | AF Elbasani | 1 | 1256 | 31.04% | 30.87% |
| 16 | 2026-09-20 | 10.00 | @ Egnatia | 2 | 1322 | 51.48% | Partizani | 1 | 1220 | 19.03% | 29.50% |
| 17 | 2026-09-04 | 9.51 | @ Egnatia | 2 | 1332 | 52.86% | Skenderbeu | 1 | 1217 | 17.92% | 29.22% |
| 18 | 2026-08-21 | 0.99 | @ Vllaznia | 2 | 1258 | 41.99% | Skenderbeu | 2 | 1234 | 27.33% | 30.68% |
| 19 | 2026-08-22 | 0.95 | Teuta | 0 | 1242 | 29.83% | @ Partizani | 0 | 1246 | 39.34% | 30.83% |
| 20 | 2026-08-29 | 0.76 | @ AF Elbasani | 1 | 1257 | 38.88% | Vllaznia | 1 | 1257 | 30.27% | 30.85% |
| 21 | 2026-09-11 | 0.75 | @ Skenderbeu | 1 | 1207 | 30.33% | KF Tirana | 1 | 1268 | 38.82% | 30.85% |
| 22 | 2026-09-20 | 0.68 | AF Elbasani | 2 | 1261 | 29.48% | @ KF Tirana | 2 | 1267 | 39.71% | 30.81% |
| 23 | 2026-09-19 | 0.42 | @ Vora | 1 | 1161 | 32.15% | Skenderbeu | 1 | 1208 | 36.95% | 30.90% |
| 24 | 2026-08-22 | 0.30 | @ Laci | 1 | 1239 | 36.28% | AF Elbasani | 1 | 1257 | 32.81% | 30.91% |
Most & Least Exciting Games
The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Excitement | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2026-09-20 | 58.2 | @ KF Tirana | 2 | 1267 | 39.71% | AF Elbasani | 2 | 1261 | 29.48% | 30.81% |
| 2 | 2026-08-21 | 58.1 | @ Vllaznia | 2 | 1258 | 41.99% | Skenderbeu | 2 | 1234 | 27.33% | 30.68% |
| 3 | 2026-09-05 | 55.6 | Partizani | 3 | 1228 | 26.61% | @ Vllaznia | 2 | 1257 | 42.76% | 30.63% |
| 4 | 2026-08-22 | 50.9 | @ Laci | 1 | 1239 | 36.28% | AF Elbasani | 1 | 1257 | 32.81% | 30.91% |
| 5 | 2026-08-29 | 50.9 | @ AF Elbasani | 1 | 1257 | 38.88% | Vllaznia | 1 | 1257 | 30.27% | 30.85% |
| 6 | 2026-09-11 | 50.8 | @ Skenderbeu | 1 | 1207 | 30.33% | KF Tirana | 1 | 1268 | 38.82% | 30.85% |
| 7 | 2026-09-19 | 50.6 | @ Vora | 1 | 1161 | 32.15% | Skenderbeu | 1 | 1208 | 36.95% | 30.90% |
| 8 | 2026-09-13 | 50.2 | @ AF Elbasani | 2 | 1242 | 25.52% | Egnatia | 1 | 1341 | 43.96% | 30.53% |
| 9 | 2026-08-29 | 48.5 | Laci | 2 | 1239 | 29.45% | @ Partizani | 1 | 1245 | 39.74% | 30.81% |
| 10 | 2026-09-12 | 48.4 | Dinamo City | 4 | 1266 | 33.13% | @ Partizani | 2 | 1245 | 35.95% | 30.92% |
| 11 | 2026-08-22 | 46.1 | @ Partizani | 0 | 1246 | 39.34% | Teuta | 0 | 1242 | 29.83% | 30.83% |
| 12 | 2026-09-06 | 46.0 | @ Dinamo City | 2 | 1251 | 38.08% | AF Elbasani | 1 | 1256 | 31.04% | 30.87% |
| 13 | 2026-09-05 | 45.4 | Teuta | 3 | 1243 | 28.71% | @ Laci | 1 | 1256 | 40.52% | 30.77% |
| 14 | 2026-08-31 | 43.7 | Egnatia | 3 | 1305 | 35.39% | @ Vora | 1 | 1269 | 33.69% | 30.92% |
| 15 | 2026-09-20 | 42.2 | @ Egnatia | 2 | 1322 | 51.48% | Partizani | 1 | 1220 | 19.03% | 29.50% |
| 16 | 2026-08-23 | 41.8 | Vora | 1 | 1251 | 30.26% | @ Dinamo City | 0 | 1251 | 38.89% | 30.85% |
| 17 | 2026-08-31 | 41.8 | Dinamo City | 1 | 1233 | 30.07% | @ Skenderbeu | 0 | 1235 | 39.09% | 30.84% |
| 18 | 2026-09-04 | 41.8 | @ Egnatia | 2 | 1332 | 52.86% | Skenderbeu | 1 | 1217 | 17.92% | 29.22% |
| 19 | 2026-09-19 | 41.1 | @ Dinamo City | 3 | 1291 | 43.54% | Laci | 1 | 1255 | 25.90% | 30.56% |
| 20 | 2026-09-06 | 36.0 | @ KF Tirana | 4 | 1208 | 33.97% | Vora | 0 | 1242 | 35.11% | 30.92% |
| 21 | 2026-09-13 | 35.7 | @ Laci | 2 | 1225 | 36.77% | Vllaznia | 0 | 1240 | 32.33% | 30.91% |
| 22 | 2026-09-18 | 34.2 | Teuta | 2 | 1295 | 42.06% | @ Vllaznia | 0 | 1210 | 27.26% | 30.68% |
| 23 | 2026-08-23 | 33.1 | @ Egnatia | 3 | 1266 | 41.35% | KF Tirana | 0 | 1247 | 27.93% | 30.72% |
| 24 | 2026-09-12 | 31.6 | @ Teuta | 2 | 1274 | 50.39% | Vora | 0 | 1182 | 19.91% | 29.69% |
| # | Date | Excitement | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2026-09-12 | 31.6 | @ Teuta | 2 | 1274 | 50.39% | Vora | 0 | 1182 | 19.91% | 29.69% |
| 2 | 2026-08-23 | 33.1 | @ Egnatia | 3 | 1266 | 41.35% | KF Tirana | 0 | 1247 | 27.93% | 30.72% |
| 3 | 2026-09-18 | 34.2 | Teuta | 2 | 1295 | 42.06% | @ Vllaznia | 0 | 1210 | 27.26% | 30.68% |
| 4 | 2026-09-13 | 35.7 | @ Laci | 2 | 1225 | 36.77% | Vllaznia | 0 | 1240 | 32.33% | 30.91% |
| 5 | 2026-09-06 | 36.0 | @ KF Tirana | 4 | 1208 | 33.97% | Vora | 0 | 1242 | 35.11% | 30.92% |
| 6 | 2026-09-19 | 41.1 | @ Dinamo City | 3 | 1291 | 43.54% | Laci | 1 | 1255 | 25.90% | 30.56% |
| 7 | 2026-08-23 | 41.8 | Vora | 1 | 1251 | 30.26% | @ Dinamo City | 0 | 1251 | 38.89% | 30.85% |
| 8 | 2026-08-31 | 41.8 | Dinamo City | 1 | 1233 | 30.07% | @ Skenderbeu | 0 | 1235 | 39.09% | 30.84% |
| 9 | 2026-09-04 | 41.8 | @ Egnatia | 2 | 1332 | 52.86% | Skenderbeu | 1 | 1217 | 17.92% | 29.22% |
| 10 | 2026-09-20 | 42.2 | @ Egnatia | 2 | 1322 | 51.48% | Partizani | 1 | 1220 | 19.03% | 29.50% |
| 11 | 2026-08-31 | 43.7 | Egnatia | 3 | 1305 | 35.39% | @ Vora | 1 | 1269 | 33.69% | 30.92% |
| 12 | 2026-09-05 | 45.4 | Teuta | 3 | 1243 | 28.71% | @ Laci | 1 | 1256 | 40.52% | 30.77% |
| 13 | 2026-09-06 | 46.0 | @ Dinamo City | 2 | 1251 | 38.08% | AF Elbasani | 1 | 1256 | 31.04% | 30.87% |
| 14 | 2026-08-22 | 46.1 | @ Partizani | 0 | 1246 | 39.34% | Teuta | 0 | 1242 | 29.83% | 30.83% |
| 15 | 2026-09-12 | 48.4 | Dinamo City | 4 | 1266 | 33.13% | @ Partizani | 2 | 1245 | 35.95% | 30.92% |
| 16 | 2026-08-29 | 48.5 | Laci | 2 | 1239 | 29.45% | @ Partizani | 1 | 1245 | 39.74% | 30.81% |
| 17 | 2026-09-13 | 50.2 | @ AF Elbasani | 2 | 1242 | 25.52% | Egnatia | 1 | 1341 | 43.96% | 30.53% |
| 18 | 2026-09-19 | 50.6 | @ Vora | 1 | 1161 | 32.15% | Skenderbeu | 1 | 1208 | 36.95% | 30.90% |
| 19 | 2026-09-11 | 50.8 | @ Skenderbeu | 1 | 1207 | 30.33% | KF Tirana | 1 | 1268 | 38.82% | 30.85% |
| 20 | 2026-08-22 | 50.9 | @ Laci | 1 | 1239 | 36.28% | AF Elbasani | 1 | 1257 | 32.81% | 30.91% |
| 21 | 2026-08-29 | 50.9 | @ AF Elbasani | 1 | 1257 | 38.88% | Vllaznia | 1 | 1257 | 30.27% | 30.85% |
| 22 | 2026-09-05 | 55.6 | Partizani | 3 | 1228 | 26.61% | @ Vllaznia | 2 | 1257 | 42.76% | 30.63% |
| 23 | 2026-08-21 | 58.1 | @ Vllaznia | 2 | 1258 | 41.99% | Skenderbeu | 2 | 1234 | 27.33% | 30.68% |
| 24 | 2026-09-20 | 58.2 | @ KF Tirana | 2 | 1267 | 39.71% | AF Elbasani | 2 | 1261 | 29.48% | 30.81% |