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2002-03 Primera Divisió Season

96 games

Final

Champion

FC Santa Coloma

42 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 2000-01

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Inter Club d Escaldes

5.39 points above expected

26 points · 20.61 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

SC Escaldes

6.18 points below expected

3 points · 9.18 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FC Santa Coloma Champion 16 13 3 0 42 51 8 +43 38.09 +3.91
2 Encamp 16 10 4 2 34 49 10 +39 32.83 +1.17
3 Sant Julia 16 9 3 4 30 57 17 +40 33.53 -3.53
4 Inter Club d Escaldes 16 8 2 6 26 30 33 -3 20.61 +5.39
5 Lusitanos 16 7 1 8 22 34 34 0 19.92 +2.08
6 FC Rangers 16 6 3 7 21 39 39 0 25.61 -4.61
7 Principat 16 5 5 6 20 22 26 -4 19.83 +0.17
8 CE Cerni 16 2 1 13 7 17 63 -46 6.57 +0.43
9 SC Escaldes 16 1 0 15 3 12 81 -69 9.18 -6.18
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lusitanos 6 5 0 1 15 19 7 +12 32.21 -17.21
2 Encamp 6 4 2 0 14 14 6 +8 43.69 -29.69
3 Principat 6 4 0 2 12 10 7 +3 31.84 -19.84
4 FC Rangers 6 3 0 3 9 15 12 +3 30.38 -21.38
5 Sant Julia 6 2 2 2 8 16 11 +5 39.19 -31.19
6 FC Santa Coloma 6 1 4 1 7 7 6 +1 54.30 -47.30
7 Inter Club d Escaldes 6 1 0 5 3 7 21 -14 28.98 -25.98
8 CE Cerni 6 0 0 6 0 4 22 -18 9.73 -9.73

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Inter Club d Escaldes 26 20.61 +5.39
2 FC Santa Coloma 42 38.09 +3.91
3 Lusitanos 22 19.92 +2.08
4 Encamp 34 32.83 +1.17
5 CE Cerni 7 6.57 +0.43

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 SC Escaldes 3 9.18 -6.18
2 FC Rangers 21 25.61 -4.61
3 Sant Julia 30 33.53 -3.53
4 Principat 20 19.83 +0.17
5 CE Cerni 7 6.57 +0.43

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lusitanos 2 Dec 1 – Jan 19 1 in 16
2 Principat 2 Feb 20 – Feb 23 1 in 14
3 Encamp 6 Jan 19 – Mar 2 1 in 10
4 FC Santa Coloma 7 Sep 15 – Nov 10 1 in 9
5 Inter Club d Escaldes 3 Jan 26 – Feb 16 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sant Julia 2 Feb 16 – Feb 20 1 in 26
2 SC Escaldes 9 Nov 24 – Mar 9 1 in 21
3 FC Rangers 3 Feb 23 – Mar 2 1 in 7
4 Encamp 1 Sep 29 – Sep 29 1 in 6
5 CE Cerni 7 Oct 6 – Dec 1 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Encamp 12 Oct 6 – Mar 2 1 in 26
2 Inter Club d Escaldes 4 Sep 29 – Oct 27 1 in 13
3 FC Rangers 6 Sep 29 – Nov 24 1 in 12
4 FC Santa Coloma 16 Sep 15 – Mar 9 1 in 10
5 Principat 4 Sep 29 – Oct 27 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sant Julia 3 Oct 20 – Nov 3 1 in 10
2 FC Rangers 4 Sep 15 – Oct 13 1 in 6
3 Principat 4 Nov 3 – Jan 19 1 in 5
4 Encamp 2 Oct 27 – Nov 3 1 in 5
5 SC Escaldes 9 Nov 24 – Mar 9 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
FC Santa Coloma 1165 49 -21 6 10.5 -4.5
Encamp 1129 48 +32 11 7.7 +3.3
Sant Julia 1077 38 +2 7 8.3 -1.3
Lusitanos 899 37 +64 12 9.1 +2.9
Principat 801 32 -14 9 8.8 +0.2
FC Rangers 762 30 -7 9 8.5 +0.5
Inter Club d Escaldes 787 29 -13 3 2.1 +0.9
CE Cerni 423 7 -43 0 2.1 -2.1
SC Escaldes 482 3 -32 0 1.7 -1.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CC ENC FR FSC ICDE LUS PRI SE SJ
CE Cerni —
0-0-2
0.41
0-0-2
0.81
0-0-2
0.30
0-0-2
0.90
0-0-2
1.00
0-1-1
1.04
2-0-0
2.10
0-0-2
0.38
Encamp
2-0-0
5.36
 —
2-0-0
4.16
0-1-1
1.99
1-0-1
4.41
1-1-0
4.55
1-1-0
4.55
2-0-0
5.21
1-1-0
2.42
FC Rangers
2-0-0
4.90
0-0-2
1.52
 —
0-0-2
1.12
0-1-1
3.36
1-0-1
3.33
1-1-0
3.64
2-0-0
4.76
0-1-1
1.44
FC Santa Coloma
2-0-0
5.50
1-1-0
3.68
2-0-0
4.57
 —
2-0-0
4.87
2-0-0
4.94
1-1-0
5.03
2-0-0
5.40
1-1-0
3.41
Inter Club d Escaldes
2-0-0
4.80
1-0-1
1.28
1-1-0
2.31
0-0-2
0.83
 —
1-0-1
2.98
1-1-0
3.22
2-0-0
4.74
0-0-2
1.28
Lusitanos
2-0-0
4.70
0-1-1
1.14
1-0-1
2.34
0-0-2
0.77
1-0-1
2.69
 —
0-0-2
3.17
2-0-0
4.36
1-0-1
1.23
Principat
1-1-0
4.65
0-1-1
1.14
0-1-1
2.03
0-1-1
0.69
0-1-1
2.45
2-0-0
2.50
 —
1-0-1
4.57
1-0-1
1.05
SC Escaldes
0-0-2
3.57
0-0-2
0.53
0-0-2
0.94
0-0-2
0.37
0-0-2
0.96
0-0-2
1.33
1-0-1
1.13
 —
0-0-2
0.42
Sant Julia
2-0-0
5.38
0-1-1
3.25
1-1-0
4.24
0-1-1
2.27
2-0-0
4.41
1-0-1
4.46
1-0-1
4.65
2-0-0
5.34
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.78 +6.9
Allowed 0.91 -4.8
Differential 0.93 +3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.21%3.65%4.17%2.60%1.04%6.25%22.92%
13.65%6.25%6.25%2.60%3.65%5.21%27.60%
24.17%6.25%4.17%3.12%—1.56%19.27%
32.60%2.60%3.12%—1.04%1.04%10.42%
41.04%3.65%—1.04%——5.73%
5+6.25%5.21%1.56%1.04%——14.06%
Total22.92%27.60%19.27%10.42%5.73%14.06%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.10 2.10 +0.00
SD 2.18 2.18 3.55
CV 1.04 1.04 —
Max 13 13 +13
Min 0 0 -13

Games Played: 96

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%40.91%
1——9.09%4.55%4.55%13.64%31.82%
2—4.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%18.18%
3—4.55%———4.55%9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total—18.18%18.18%13.64%9.09%40.91%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 3.86 -2.91
SD 1.00 2.36 2.69
CV 1.05 0.61 —
Max 3 9 +2
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%—————18.18%
1—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
213.64%13.64%—4.55%——31.82%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+13.64%9.09%————22.73%
Total45.45%40.91%9.09%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 0.73 +2.14
SD 2.70 0.83 2.87
CV 0.94 1.14 —
Max 9 3 +8
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.09%9.09%—4.55%22.73%
19.09%4.55%—9.09%9.09%—31.82%
2——9.09%——4.55%13.64%
3———————
4———9.09%——9.09%
5+9.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
Total18.18%13.64%22.73%27.27%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 2.32 +0.14
SD 2.63 1.76 3.71
CV 1.07 0.76 —
Max 9 7 +8
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—————9.09%
14.55%18.18%4.55%———27.27%
24.55%13.64%4.55%———22.73%
39.09%4.55%————13.64%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+13.64%4.55%————18.18%
Total45.45%45.45%9.09%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.64 0.64 +2.00
SD 2.13 0.66 2.41
CV 0.81 1.03 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%——4.55%18.18%
14.55%9.09%—4.55%4.55%18.18%40.91%
2—4.55%————4.55%
34.55%4.55%13.64%——4.55%27.27%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+———————
Total9.09%31.82%22.73%4.55%4.55%27.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 2.45 -0.77
SD 1.32 1.82 2.56
CV 0.79 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%—4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
14.55%—13.64%———18.18%
24.55%—————4.55%
34.55%—4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
44.55%9.09%————13.64%
5+—9.09%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
Total22.73%27.27%27.27%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.41 1.86 +0.55
SD 2.09 2.01 3.19
CV 0.87 1.08 —
Max 6 9 +4
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%——4.55%22.73%
14.55%4.55%9.09%—4.55%—22.73%
213.64%13.64%9.09%4.55%——40.91%
34.55%—4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.82%22.73%27.27%4.55%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.50 -0.05
SD 1.01 1.47 1.81
CV 0.69 0.98 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——6.25%6.25%—25.00%37.50%
16.25%—6.25%6.25%12.50%18.75%50.00%
2———6.25%—6.25%12.50%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total6.25%—12.50%18.75%12.50%50.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 5.06 -4.31
SD 0.68 3.21 3.46
CV 0.91 0.63 —
Max 2 13 +1
Min 0 0 -13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
1—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
2—4.55%9.09%9.09%——22.73%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+18.18%13.64%—4.55%——36.36%
Total22.73%40.91%22.73%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.32 1.27 +2.05
SD 3.14 0.98 3.67
CV 0.95 0.77 —
Max 13 3 +13
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FC Santa Coloma 1165 42 38.09 +3.91 85.0% 29 31 35 38 41 44 46
Encamp 1129 34 32.83 +1.17 64.0% 23 25 30 33 36 41 43
Sant Julia 1077 30 33.53 -3.53 19.0% 21 27 31 33 36 40 43
Lusitanos 899 22 19.92 +2.08 71.0% 9 11 17 20 23 27 31
Principat 801 20 19.83 +0.17 59.0% 8 12 16 20 23 27 31
Inter Club d Escaldes 787 26 20.61 +5.39 89.0% 6 13 17 21 23 27 31
FC Rangers 762 21 25.61 -4.61 23.0% 13 18 22 26 29 34 40
SC Escaldes 482 3 9.18 -6.18 5.0% 2 3 7 9 11 15 18
CE Cerni 423 7 6.57 +0.43 66.0% 0 2 5 6 8 12 13

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -2.5% * Slight Edge: -2.5% to 0% * Clear Edge: 0% to 6% * Strong Edge: 6% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.29%
Strong Edge
45.83%15.62%38.54%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 25.38 Elo pts.
115 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
0300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.49 goals
Neutral
-2+0.22+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
64%
FC Santa Coloma, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.50/gm
Runaway
00.270.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.42 * Some Luck: 3.42 to 5.12 * Lucky: 5.12 to 6.83 * Wild Swing: 6.83 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.6 * Close: 0.6 to 0.9 * Off: 0.9 to 1.2 * Way Off: 1.2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.68 points
Some Luck
04.2711
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.89
Close
00.752
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
89.00%
Inter Club d Escaldes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
5.00%
SC Escaldes
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.1 * Moderate Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Strong Separation: 2.35 to 2.5 * Wide Separation: 2.5 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 83.5% * Slight Edge: 83.5% to 89% * Clear Edge: 89% to 94% * Wide Edge: 94% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98.5% * Strong Edge: 98.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 40.5% * Some Drama: 40.5% to 45.5% * Frequent: 45.5% to 53% * Very Frequent: 53% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 28% * Occasional: 28% to 33.5% * Frequent: 33.5% to 41.5% * Very Frequent: 41.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Lopsided
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 252.71
2.21
Moderate Separation
12.12.353.25
Interquartile Edge
84%
Slight Edge
50%83.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
44%
Some Drama
0%32%100%
Blowouts
Expected
42%
Very Frequent
0%49%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.49 * Slight Separation: 0.49 to 0.54 * Notable Separation: 0.54 to 0.6 * Lopsided: 0.6 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.56 * Some Carryover: 0.56 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.86 * Near-Lock: 0.86 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15.5% * Very Shaky: 15.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.43
Highly Predictable
00.462
Matchup Imbalance
0.57
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.78
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.90
Near-Lock
00.560.761
Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Solid Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.43
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.13
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.085
Well Within Noise
00.1390.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
FC Santa Coloma64.00%29.00%7.00%——————
Encamp18.00%27.00%39.00%13.00%3.00%————
Sant Julia17.00%40.00%32.00%8.00%2.00%1.00%———
Inter Club d Escaldes——4.00%18.00%27.00%22.00%26.00%2.00%1.00%
Lusitanos——1.00%12.00%21.00%39.00%22.00%5.00%—
FC Rangers1.00%4.00%15.00%40.00%20.00%11.00%9.00%——
Principat——2.00%9.00%27.00%27.00%32.00%2.00%1.00%
CE Cerni——————2.00%35.00%63.00%
SC Escaldes——————9.00%56.00%35.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Encamp 100% —
FC Rangers 100% —
FC Santa Coloma 100% —
Inter Club d Escaldes 100% —
Sant Julia 100% —
Lusitanos 99.00% 1.00%
Principat 99.00% 1.00%
CE Cerni 64.00% 36.00%
SC Escaldes 38.00% 62.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Encamp 100% —
FC Santa Coloma 100% —
Inter Club d Escaldes 100% —
Lusitanos 100% —
Sant Julia 100% —
FC Rangers 99.99% 0.01%
Principat 99.99% 0.01%
CE Cerni 0.02% 99.98%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2002-09-15 CE Cerni W 3-134.0 778 484 74.97% 14.85% 10.19%+2.77 +5.3 3
2002-09-15 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 1-334.0 484 778 10.19% 14.85% 74.97%-2.77 -5.3 0
2002-09-15 FC Rangers W 4-133.9 1120 869 72.08% 15.26% 12.66%+2.39 +9.3 3
2002-09-15 @ FC Santa Coloma L 1-433.9 869 1120 12.66% 15.26% 72.08%-2.39 -9.3 0
2002-09-15 Lusitanos L 1-534.8 615 838 18.50% 15.89% 65.61%-1.71 -17.3 0
2002-09-15 @ SC Escaldes W 5-134.8 838 615 65.61% 15.89% 18.50%+1.71 +17.3 3
2002-09-15 Principat W 2-136.0 1013 773 71.25% 15.36% 13.39%+2.30 +4.0 3
2002-09-15 @ Encamp L 1-236.0 773 1013 13.39% 15.36% 71.25%-2.30 -4.0 0
2002-09-22 Encamp L 0-235.4 860 1017 24.85% 16.26% 58.88%-1.14 -14.3 0
2002-09-22 @ FC Rangers W 2-035.4 1017 860 58.88% 16.26% 24.85%+1.14 +14.3 6
2002-09-22 Inter Club d Escaldes W 5-131.2 1129 784 77.82% 14.31% 7.88%+3.22 +7.5 6
2002-09-22 @ FC Santa Coloma L 1-531.2 784 1129 7.88% 14.31% 77.82%-3.22 -7.5 3
2002-09-22 Sant Julia L 1-236.6 769 1035 15.06% 15.57% 69.38%-2.09 -4.5 0
2002-09-22 @ Principat W 2-136.6 1035 769 69.38% 15.57% 15.06%+2.09 +4.5 3
2002-09-22 SC Escaldes W 3-147.7 479 598 29.14% 16.41% 54.44%-0.82 +24.6 3
2002-09-22 @ CE Cerni L 1-347.7 598 479 54.44% 16.41% 29.14%+0.82 -24.5 0
2002-09-29 Encamp W 3-256.3 776 1031 15.85% 15.65% 68.49%-1.99 +16.8 6
2002-09-29 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 2-356.3 1031 776 68.49% 15.65% 15.85%+1.99 -16.8 6
2002-09-29 FC Rangers D 2-256.6 765 845 34.08% 16.52% 49.40%-0.48 +0.7 1
2002-09-29 @ Principat D 2-256.6 845 765 49.40% 16.52% 34.08%+0.48 -0.7 1
2002-09-29 FC Santa Coloma L 0-326.5 574 1136 3.32% 12.26% 84.42%-4.66 -2.8 0
2002-09-29 @ SC Escaldes W 3-026.5 1136 574 84.42% 12.26% 3.32%+4.66 +2.8 9
2002-09-29 Sant Julia L 0-931.0 855 1040 21.97% 16.12% 61.91%-1.38 -52.3 3
2002-09-29 @ Lusitanos W 9-031.0 1040 855 61.91% 16.12% 21.97%+1.38 +52.3 6
2002-10-06 Principat L 1-247.4 803 766 50.36% 16.50% 33.14%+0.54 -13.2 3
2002-10-06 @ Lusitanos W 2-147.4 766 803 33.14% 16.50% 50.36%-0.54 +13.2 4
2002-10-06 Sant Julia L 0-524.6 503 1092 2.89% 11.92% 85.19%-4.89 -3.9 3
2002-10-06 @ CE Cerni W 5-024.6 1092 503 85.19% 11.92% 2.89%+4.89 +3.9 9
2002-10-06 SC Escaldes W 7-024.9 1014 571 82.11% 13.14% 4.75%+4.07 +9.1 9
2002-10-06 @ Encamp L 0-724.9 571 1014 4.75% 13.14% 82.11%-4.07 -9.1 0
2002-10-13 Inter Club d Escaldes D 1-153.2 845 793 52.31% 16.47% 31.22%+0.67 -1.3 2
2002-10-13 @ FC Rangers D 1-153.2 793 845 31.22% 16.47% 52.31%-0.67 +1.3 7
2002-10-20 FC Rangers L 0-628.6 562 843 13.93% 15.43% 70.63%-2.22 -23.2 0
2002-10-20 @ SC Escaldes W 6-028.6 843 562 70.63% 15.43% 13.93%+2.22 +23.2 5
2002-10-20 FC Santa Coloma L 1-244.1 1096 1139 39.16% 16.57% 44.28%-0.16 -10.6 9
2002-10-20 @ Sant Julia W 2-144.1 1139 1096 44.28% 16.57% 39.16%+0.16 +10.6 12
2002-10-20 Inter Club d Escaldes D 1-153.1 779 794 43.15% 16.57% 40.27%+0.09 -0.2 5
2002-10-20 @ Principat D 1-153.1 794 779 40.27% 16.57% 43.15%-0.09 +0.2 8
2002-10-20 Lusitanos L 3-639.9 499 789 13.37% 15.36% 71.27%-2.30 -7.9 3
2002-10-20 @ CE Cerni W 6-339.9 789 499 71.27% 15.36% 13.37%+2.30 +7.9 6
2002-10-27 Encamp D 0-050.6 1085 1023 53.60% 16.44% 29.97%+0.76 -1.7 10
2002-10-27 @ Sant Julia D 0-050.6 1023 1085 29.97% 16.44% 53.60%-0.76 +1.7 10
2002-10-27 CE Cerni W 2-135.0 779 491 74.53% 14.91% 10.55%+2.71 +3.2 8
2002-10-27 @ Principat L 1-235.0 491 779 10.55% 14.91% 74.53%-2.71 -3.2 3
2002-10-27 FC Santa Coloma L 1-234.7 797 1150 9.81% 14.77% 75.42%-2.84 -3.0 6
2002-10-27 @ Lusitanos W 2-134.7 1150 797 75.42% 14.77% 9.81%+2.84 +3.0 15
2002-10-27 SC Escaldes W 4-133.8 794 538 72.45% 15.21% 12.33%+2.44 +9.1 11
2002-10-27 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 1-433.8 538 794 12.33% 15.21% 72.45%-2.44 -9.1 0
2002-11-03 CE Cerni W 3-025.3 1153 488 88.29% 10.23% 1.48%+5.99 +1.2 18
2002-11-03 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-325.3 488 1153 1.48% 10.23% 88.29%-5.99 -1.2 3
2002-11-03 Lusitanos D 0-050.9 1025 794 70.61% 15.44% 13.95%+2.22 -4.3 11
2002-11-03 @ Encamp D 0-050.9 794 1025 13.95% 15.44% 70.61%-2.22 +4.3 7
2002-11-03 Principat W 1-049.5 529 782 16.04% 15.67% 68.29%-1.97 +18.7 3
2002-11-03 @ SC Escaldes L 0-149.5 782 529 68.29% 15.67% 16.04%+1.97 -18.7 8
2002-11-03 Sant Julia D 2-256.8 867 1084 18.96% 15.92% 65.12%-1.66 +2.3 6
2002-11-03 @ FC Rangers D 2-256.8 1084 867 65.12% 15.92% 18.96%+1.66 -2.3 11
2002-11-09 Encamp L 1-430.5 487 1021 3.87% 12.64% 83.50%-4.41 -2.8 3
2002-11-09 @ CE Cerni W 4-130.5 1021 487 83.50% 12.64% 3.87%+4.41 +2.8 14
2002-11-10 FC Rangers L 0-139.9 799 869 35.45% 16.54% 48.01%-0.39 -10.4 7
2002-11-10 @ Lusitanos W 1-039.9 869 799 48.01% 16.54% 35.45%+0.39 +10.4 9
2002-11-10 FC Santa Coloma L 0-526.9 763 1154 8.09% 14.36% 77.55%-3.17 -11.4 8
2002-11-10 @ Principat W 5-026.9 1154 763 77.55% 14.36% 8.09%+3.17 +11.4 21
2002-11-10 Inter Club d Escaldes W 5-132.3 1081 803 73.93% 15.01% 11.06%+2.63 +10.5 14
2002-11-10 @ Sant Julia L 1-532.3 803 1081 11.06% 15.01% 73.93%-2.63 -10.5 11
2002-11-24 Encamp D 1-153.3 1165 1023 62.73% 16.08% 21.20%+1.45 -2.8 22
2002-11-24 @ FC Santa Coloma D 1-153.3 1023 1165 21.20% 16.08% 62.73%-1.45 +2.8 15
2002-11-24 CE Cerni W 9-127.4 879 484 80.16% 13.73% 6.11%+3.65 +11.0 12
2002-11-24 @ FC Rangers L 1-927.4 484 879 6.11% 13.73% 80.16%-3.65 -11.0 3
2002-11-24 Lusitanos W 3-038.0 793 788 45.97% 16.56% 37.47%+0.26 +29.7 14
2002-11-24 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 0-338.0 788 793 37.47% 16.56% 45.97%-0.26 -29.8 7
2002-11-24 Sant Julia L 1-430.4 548 1092 3.67% 12.51% 83.82%-4.50 -2.6 3
2002-11-24 @ SC Escaldes W 4-130.4 1092 548 83.82% 12.51% 3.67%+4.50 +2.7 17
2002-12-01 Encamp D 0-050.9 752 1026 14.43% 15.49% 70.07%-2.16 +4.2 9
2002-12-01 @ Principat D 0-050.9 1026 752 70.07% 15.49% 14.43%+2.16 -4.2 16
2002-12-01 Inter Club d Escaldes L 0-131.7 473 823 9.97% 14.80% 75.23%-2.81 -3.2 3
2002-12-01 @ CE Cerni W 1-031.7 823 473 75.23% 14.80% 9.97%+2.81 +3.2 17
2002-12-01 SC Escaldes W 5-133.7 758 545 69.22% 15.58% 15.20%+2.07 +14.3 10
2002-12-01 @ Lusitanos L 1-533.7 545 758 15.20% 15.58% 69.22%-2.07 -14.3 3
2002-12-02 FC Santa Coloma L 1-335.5 890 1163 14.57% 15.51% 69.92%-2.14 -7.5 12
2002-12-02 @ FC Rangers W 3-135.5 1163 890 69.92% 15.51% 14.57%+2.14 +7.5 25
2002-12-15 CE Cerni L 1-248.3 531 470 53.49% 16.44% 30.07%+0.75 -13.9 3
2002-12-15 @ SC Escaldes W 2-148.3 470 531 30.07% 16.44% 53.49%-0.75 +13.9 6
2002-12-15 FC Santa Coloma L 0-131.8 826 1170 10.23% 14.85% 74.92%-2.77 -3.3 17
2002-12-15 @ Inter Club d Escaldes W 1-031.8 1170 826 74.92% 14.85% 10.23%+2.77 +3.3 28
2003-01-19 Inter Club d Escaldes W 2-032.6 1022 823 68.09% 15.69% 16.22%+1.95 +9.6 19
2003-01-19 @ Encamp L 0-232.6 823 1022 16.22% 15.69% 68.09%-1.95 -9.6 17
2003-01-19 Lusitanos L 0-151.6 1094 773 76.55% 14.56% 8.88%+3.01 -20.9 17
2003-01-19 @ Sant Julia W 1-051.6 773 1094 8.88% 14.56% 76.55%-3.01 +20.9 13
2003-01-19 Principat W 4-346.1 883 756 61.13% 16.16% 22.71%+1.32 +6.1 15
2003-01-19 @ FC Rangers L 3-446.1 756 883 22.71% 16.16% 61.13%-1.32 -6.1 9
2003-01-19 SC Escaldes W 8-023.1 1173 517 88.12% 10.34% 1.55%+5.92 +3.2 31
2003-01-19 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-823.1 517 1173 1.55% 10.34% 88.12%-5.92 -3.2 3
2003-01-26 Encamp L 1-926.5 514 1032 4.21% 12.84% 82.95%-4.27 -7.5 3
2003-01-26 @ SC Escaldes W 9-126.5 1032 514 82.95% 12.84% 4.21%+4.27 +7.5 22
2003-01-26 CE Cerni W 5-128.5 1074 484 86.57% 11.23% 2.20%+5.34 +2.0 20
2003-01-26 @ Sant Julia L 1-528.5 484 1074 2.20% 11.23% 86.57%-5.34 -2.0 6
2003-01-26 FC Rangers W 4-145.1 813 889 34.70% 16.53% 48.77%-0.44 +31.4 20
2003-01-26 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 1-445.1 889 813 48.77% 16.53% 34.70%+0.44 -31.4 15
2003-01-26 Lusitanos W 1-042.6 750 794 39.08% 16.57% 44.35%-0.16 +12.5 12
2003-01-26 @ Principat L 0-142.6 794 750 44.35% 16.57% 39.08%+0.16 -12.5 13
2003-02-09 CE Cerni W 5-236.3 781 482 75.27% 14.79% 9.94%+2.82 +6.4 16
2003-02-09 @ Lusitanos L 2-536.3 482 781 9.94% 14.79% 75.27%-2.82 -6.4 6
2003-02-09 Sant Julia D 1-153.3 1177 1076 58.31% 16.29% 25.41%+1.10 -2.1 32
2003-02-09 @ FC Santa Coloma D 1-153.3 1076 1177 25.41% 16.29% 58.31%-1.10 +2.1 21
2003-02-09 SC Escaldes W 7-232.5 857 507 78.09% 14.24% 7.66%+3.26 +7.5 18
2003-02-09 @ FC Rangers L 2-732.5 507 857 7.66% 14.24% 78.09%-3.26 -7.5 3
2003-02-10 Principat W 3-244.2 844 762 56.05% 16.37% 27.58%+0.93 +7.4 23
2003-02-10 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 2-344.2 762 844 27.58% 16.37% 56.05%-0.93 -7.4 12
2003-02-16 Inter Club d Escaldes L 2-338.4 499 852 9.81% 14.77% 75.42%-2.84 -2.8 3
2003-02-16 @ SC Escaldes W 3-238.4 852 499 75.42% 14.77% 9.81%+2.84 +2.8 26
2003-02-16 Lusitanos W 4-026.9 1174 788 79.80% 13.83% 6.37%+3.58 +7.2 35
2003-02-16 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-426.9 788 1174 6.37% 13.83% 79.80%-3.58 -7.2 16
2003-02-16 Principat D 2-256.9 476 755 14.09% 15.45% 70.45%-2.20 +2.9 7
2003-02-16 @ CE Cerni D 2-256.9 755 476 70.45% 15.45% 14.09%+2.20 -2.9 13
2003-02-16 Sant Julia W 2-041.1 1039 1078 39.83% 16.57% 43.60%-0.11 +23.3 25
2003-02-16 @ Encamp L 0-241.1 1078 1039 43.60% 16.57% 39.83%+0.11 -23.3 21
2003-02-20 Principat L 2-358.1 1054 752 75.45% 14.76% 9.79%+2.84 -18.5 21
2003-02-20 @ Sant Julia W 3-258.1 752 1054 9.79% 14.76% 75.45%-2.84 +18.5 16
2003-02-23 Encamp L 1-236.2 780 1062 13.91% 15.43% 70.65%-2.23 -4.2 16
2003-02-23 @ Lusitanos W 2-136.2 1062 780 70.65% 15.43% 13.91%+2.23 +4.2 28
2003-02-23 FC Rangers W 3-136.8 1036 865 65.58% 15.89% 18.53%+1.71 +9.5 24
2003-02-23 @ Sant Julia L 1-336.8 865 1036 18.53% 15.89% 65.58%-1.71 -9.5 18
2003-02-23 FC Santa Coloma L 0-723.2 478 1182 1.58% 10.39% 88.04%-5.88 -2.9 7
2003-02-23 @ CE Cerni W 7-023.2 1182 478 88.04% 10.39% 1.58%+5.88 +2.8 38
2003-02-23 SC Escaldes W 2-030.9 771 496 73.70% 15.04% 11.26%+2.60 +6.8 19
2003-02-23 @ Principat L 0-230.9 496 771 11.26% 15.04% 73.70%-2.60 -6.8 3
2003-02-26 FC Rangers W 7-028.9 1067 855 69.07% 15.60% 15.33%+2.05 +29.4 31
2003-02-26 @ Encamp L 0-728.9 855 1067 15.33% 15.60% 69.07%-2.05 -29.4 18
2003-03-02 CE Cerni W 8-023.3 1096 476 87.31% 10.82% 1.87%+5.60 +3.9 34
2003-03-02 @ Encamp L 0-823.3 476 1096 1.87% 10.82% 87.31%-5.60 -3.9 7
2003-03-02 Lusitanos L 2-549.4 826 776 52.04% 16.47% 31.49%+0.65 -28.8 18
2003-03-02 @ FC Rangers W 5-249.4 776 826 31.49% 16.47% 52.04%-0.65 +28.8 19
2003-03-02 Principat D 0-051.4 1185 777 80.68% 13.59% 5.73%+3.75 -5.8 39
2003-03-02 @ FC Santa Coloma D 0-051.4 777 1185 5.73% 13.59% 80.68%-3.75 +5.8 20
2003-03-02 Sant Julia L 1-535.7 855 1045 21.38% 16.09% 62.54%-1.44 -19.7 26
2003-03-02 @ Inter Club d Escaldes W 5-135.7 1045 855 62.54% 16.09% 21.38%+1.44 +19.7 27
2003-03-09 FC Rangers L 0-132.2 472 797 11.24% 15.04% 73.72%-2.60 -3.6 7
2003-03-09 @ CE Cerni W 1-032.2 797 472 73.72% 15.04% 11.24%+2.60 +3.6 21
2003-03-09 FC Santa Coloma L 1-242.7 1100 1179 34.28% 16.52% 49.20%-0.47 -9.5 34
2003-03-09 @ Encamp W 2-142.7 1179 1100 49.20% 16.52% 34.28%+0.47 +9.5 42
2003-03-09 Inter Club d Escaldes W 4-143.2 805 835 41.07% 16.57% 42.35%-0.04 +27.8 22
2003-03-09 @ Lusitanos L 1-443.2 835 805 42.35% 16.57% 41.07%+0.04 -27.8 26
2003-03-09 SC Escaldes W 13-024.0 1065 489 86.21% 11.42% 2.37%+5.22 +8.0 30
2003-03-09 @ Sant Julia L 0-1324.0 489 1065 2.37% 11.42% 86.21%-5.22 -8.0 3

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-03-23 Encamp L 1-335.3 807 1090 13.83% 15.42% 70.75%-2.24 -7.2 0
2003-03-23 @ Inter Club d Escaldes W 3-135.3 1090 807 70.75% 15.42% 13.83%+2.24 +7.2 3
2003-03-23 CE Cerni W 3-237.4 833 468 78.78% 14.09% 7.13%+3.39 +2.0 3
2003-03-23 @ Lusitanos L 2-337.4 468 833 7.13% 14.09% 78.78%-3.39 -2.0 0
2003-03-23 FC Rangers W 3-039.0 783 801 42.84% 16.57% 40.59%+0.07 +31.8 3
2003-03-23 @ Principat L 0-339.0 801 783 40.59% 16.57% 42.84%-0.07 -31.8 0
2003-03-23 FC Santa Coloma D 1-153.2 1073 1188 29.67% 16.43% 53.90%-0.78 +1.6 1
2003-03-23 @ Sant Julia D 1-153.2 1188 1073 53.90% 16.43% 29.67%+0.78 -1.5 1
2003-03-30 Encamp D 1-153.3 1187 1097 56.93% 16.34% 26.74%+0.99 -2.0 2
2003-03-30 @ FC Santa Coloma D 1-153.3 1097 1187 26.74% 16.34% 56.93%-0.99 +2.0 4
2003-03-30 FC Rangers L 0-528.5 466 769 12.57% 15.25% 72.18%-2.41 -17.6 0
2003-03-30 @ CE Cerni W 5-028.5 769 466 72.18% 15.25% 12.57%+2.41 +17.6 3
2003-03-30 Inter Club d Escaldes W 5-028.1 1075 800 73.73% 15.04% 11.23%+2.60 +15.8 4
2003-03-30 @ Sant Julia L 0-528.1 800 1075 11.23% 15.04% 73.73%-2.60 -15.8 0
2003-03-30 Principat W 4-141.1 835 815 48.07% 16.54% 35.39%+0.39 +23.9 6
2003-03-30 @ Lusitanos L 1-441.1 815 835 35.39% 16.54% 48.07%-0.39 -23.9 3
2003-04-06 Inter Club d Escaldes W 2-028.9 1185 784 80.41% 13.66% 5.93%+3.70 +3.6 5
2003-04-06 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-228.9 784 1185 5.93% 13.66% 80.41%-3.70 -3.6 0
2003-04-06 Lusitanos W 4-353.8 787 859 35.18% 16.53% 48.29%-0.41 +11.8 6
2003-04-06 @ FC Rangers L 3-453.8 859 787 48.29% 16.53% 35.18%+0.41 -11.8 6
2003-04-06 Principat L 1-234.9 448 791 10.31% 14.87% 74.82%-2.75 -3.1 0
2003-04-06 @ CE Cerni W 2-134.9 791 448 74.82% 14.87% 10.31%+2.75 +3.1 6
2003-04-06 Sant Julia W 2-143.4 1099 1090 46.57% 16.55% 36.88%+0.30 +10.1 7
2003-04-06 @ Encamp L 1-243.4 1090 1099 36.88% 16.55% 46.57%-0.30 -10.1 4
2003-04-13 Inter Club d Escaldes W 5-131.4 1110 780 76.96% 14.48% 8.56%+3.08 +8.2 10
2003-04-13 @ Encamp L 1-531.4 780 1110 8.56% 14.48% 76.96%-3.08 -8.1 0
2003-04-13 Lusitanos L 0-427.4 445 847 7.66% 14.24% 78.10%-3.27 -8.8 0
2003-04-13 @ CE Cerni W 4-027.4 847 445 78.10% 14.24% 7.66%+3.27 +8.7 9
2003-04-13 Principat L 0-241.7 798 794 45.90% 16.56% 37.55%+0.26 -24.3 6
2003-04-13 @ FC Rangers W 2-041.7 794 798 37.55% 16.56% 45.90%-0.26 +24.3 9
2003-04-13 Sant Julia D 2-256.8 1188 1080 59.08% 16.25% 24.66%+1.16 -1.7 6
2003-04-13 @ FC Santa Coloma D 2-256.8 1080 1188 24.66% 16.25% 59.08%-1.16 +1.7 5
2003-04-27 CE Cerni W 6-130.3 774 437 77.41% 14.39% 8.20%+3.15 +9.6 9
2003-04-27 @ FC Rangers L 1-630.3 437 774 8.20% 14.39% 77.41%-3.15 -9.6 0
2003-04-27 FC Santa Coloma D 0-050.6 1118 1187 35.62% 16.54% 47.84%-0.38 +0.9 11
2003-04-27 @ Encamp D 0-050.6 1187 1118 47.84% 16.54% 35.62%+0.38 -0.9 7
2003-04-27 Lusitanos L 0-240.0 818 856 40.02% 16.57% 43.41%-0.10 -21.6 9
2003-04-27 @ Principat W 2-040.0 856 818 43.41% 16.57% 40.02%+0.10 +21.6 12
2003-04-27 Sant Julia L 3-541.2 772 1082 12.15% 15.19% 72.66%-2.47 -5.4 0
2003-04-27 @ Inter Club d Escaldes W 5-341.2 1082 772 72.66% 15.19% 12.15%+2.47 +5.4 8
2003-05-04 Encamp L 2-348.3 1087 1119 40.88% 16.57% 42.54%-0.05 -10.5 8
2003-05-04 @ Sant Julia W 3-248.3 1119 1087 42.54% 16.57% 40.88%+0.05 +10.5 14
2003-05-04 CE Cerni W 2-029.3 797 427 79.02% 14.03% 6.95%+3.43 +4.2 12
2003-05-04 @ Principat L 0-229.3 427 797 6.95% 14.03% 79.02%-3.43 -4.2 0
2003-05-04 FC Rangers W 3-034.6 877 784 57.46% 16.32% 26.22%+1.03 +21.8 15
2003-05-04 @ Lusitanos L 0-334.6 784 877 26.22% 16.32% 57.46%-1.03 -21.8 9
2003-05-04 FC Santa Coloma W 2-155.3 767 1186 7.01% 14.05% 78.94%-3.41 +20.3 3
2003-05-04 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 1-255.3 1186 767 78.94% 14.05% 7.01%+3.41 -20.3 7

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2003-05-04 7.01% @ Inter Club d Escaldes 767 2 FC Santa Coloma 1186 1
2 2003-01-19 8.88% Lusitanos 773 1 @ Sant Julia 1094 0
3 2003-02-20 9.79% Principat 752 3 @ Sant Julia 1054 2
4 2002-09-29 15.85% @ Inter Club d Escaldes 776 3 Encamp 1031 2
5 2002-11-03 16.04% @ SC Escaldes 529 1 Principat 782 0
6 2002-09-22 29.14% @ CE Cerni 479 3 SC Escaldes 598 1
7 2002-12-15 30.07% CE Cerni 470 2 @ SC Escaldes 531 1
8 2003-03-02 31.49% Lusitanos 776 5 @ FC Rangers 826 2
9 2002-10-06 33.14% Principat 766 2 @ Lusitanos 803 1
10 2003-01-26 34.70% @ Inter Club d Escaldes 813 4 FC Rangers 889 1
11 2003-04-06 35.18% @ FC Rangers 787 4 Lusitanos 859 3
12 2003-04-13 37.55% Principat 794 2 @ FC Rangers 798 0
13 2003-01-26 39.08% @ Principat 750 1 Lusitanos 794 0
14 2003-02-16 39.83% @ Encamp 1039 2 Sant Julia 1078 0
15 2003-03-09 41.07% @ Lusitanos 805 4 Inter Club d Escaldes 835 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-09-29 52.31 Sant Julia 9 1040 61.91% @ Lusitanos 0 855 21.97% 16.12%
2 2003-03-23 31.82 @ Principat 3 783 42.84% FC Rangers 0 801 40.59% 16.57%
3 2003-01-26 31.40 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 4 813 34.70% FC Rangers 1 889 48.77% 16.53%
4 2002-11-24 29.75 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 3 793 45.97% Lusitanos 0 788 37.47% 16.56%
5 2003-02-26 29.39 @ Encamp 7 1067 69.07% FC Rangers 0 855 15.33% 15.60%
6 2003-03-02 28.83 Lusitanos 5 776 31.49% @ FC Rangers 2 826 52.04% 16.47%
7 2003-03-09 27.81 @ Lusitanos 4 805 41.07% Inter Club d Escaldes 1 835 42.35% 16.57%
8 2002-09-22 24.55 @ CE Cerni 3 479 29.14% SC Escaldes 1 598 54.44% 16.41%
9 2003-04-13 24.31 Principat 2 794 37.55% @ FC Rangers 0 798 45.90% 16.56%
10 2003-03-30 23.89 @ Lusitanos 4 835 48.07% Principat 1 815 35.39% 16.54%
11 2003-02-16 23.26 @ Encamp 2 1039 39.83% Sant Julia 0 1078 43.60% 16.57%
12 2002-10-20 23.17 FC Rangers 6 843 70.63% @ SC Escaldes 0 562 13.93% 15.43%
13 2003-05-04 21.80 @ Lusitanos 3 877 57.46% FC Rangers 0 784 26.22% 16.32%
14 2003-04-27 21.65 Lusitanos 2 856 43.41% @ Principat 0 818 40.02% 16.57%
15 2003-01-19 20.94 Lusitanos 1 773 8.88% @ Sant Julia 0 1094 76.55% 14.56%
16 2003-05-04 20.31 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 2 767 7.01% FC Santa Coloma 1 1186 78.94% 14.05%
17 2003-03-02 19.74 Sant Julia 5 1045 62.54% @ Inter Club d Escaldes 1 855 21.38% 16.09%
18 2002-11-03 18.71 @ SC Escaldes 1 529 16.04% Principat 0 782 68.29% 15.67%
19 2003-02-20 18.46 Principat 3 752 9.79% @ Sant Julia 2 1054 75.45% 14.76%
20 2003-03-30 17.65 FC Rangers 5 769 72.18% @ CE Cerni 0 466 12.57% 15.25%
21 2002-09-15 17.27 Lusitanos 5 838 65.61% @ SC Escaldes 1 615 18.50% 15.89%
22 2002-09-29 16.79 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 3 776 15.85% Encamp 2 1031 68.49% 15.65%
23 2003-03-30 15.82 @ Sant Julia 5 1075 73.73% Inter Club d Escaldes 0 800 11.23% 15.04%
24 2002-12-01 14.34 @ Lusitanos 5 758 69.22% SC Escaldes 1 545 15.20% 15.58%
25 2002-09-22 14.31 Encamp 2 1017 58.88% @ FC Rangers 0 860 24.85% 16.26%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-02-20 58.1 Principat 3 752 9.79% @ Sant Julia 2 1054 75.45% 14.76%
2 2003-02-16 56.9 @ CE Cerni 2 476 14.09% Principat 2 755 70.45% 15.45%
3 2002-11-03 56.8 @ FC Rangers 2 867 18.96% Sant Julia 2 1084 65.12% 15.92%
4 2003-04-13 56.8 @ FC Santa Coloma 2 1188 59.08% Sant Julia 2 1080 24.66% 16.25%
5 2002-09-29 56.6 @ Principat 2 765 34.08% FC Rangers 2 845 49.40% 16.52%
6 2002-09-29 56.3 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 3 776 15.85% Encamp 2 1031 68.49% 15.65%
7 2003-05-04 55.3 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 2 767 7.01% FC Santa Coloma 1 1186 78.94% 14.05%
8 2003-04-06 53.8 @ FC Rangers 4 787 35.18% Lusitanos 3 859 48.29% 16.53%
9 2002-11-24 53.3 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1165 62.73% Encamp 1 1023 21.20% 16.08%
10 2003-02-09 53.3 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1177 58.31% Sant Julia 1 1076 25.41% 16.29%
11 2003-03-30 53.3 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1187 56.93% Encamp 1 1097 26.74% 16.34%
12 2002-10-13 53.2 @ FC Rangers 1 845 52.31% Inter Club d Escaldes 1 793 31.22% 16.47%
13 2003-03-23 53.2 @ Sant Julia 1 1073 29.67% FC Santa Coloma 1 1188 53.90% 16.43%
14 2002-10-20 53.1 @ Principat 1 779 43.15% Inter Club d Escaldes 1 794 40.27% 16.57%
15 2003-01-19 51.6 Lusitanos 1 773 8.88% @ Sant Julia 0 1094 76.55% 14.56%
16 2003-03-02 51.4 @ FC Santa Coloma 0 1185 80.68% Principat 0 777 5.73% 13.59%
17 2002-11-03 50.9 @ Encamp 0 1025 70.61% Lusitanos 0 794 13.95% 15.44%
18 2002-12-01 50.9 @ Principat 0 752 14.43% Encamp 0 1026 70.07% 15.49%
19 2002-10-27 50.6 @ Sant Julia 0 1085 53.60% Encamp 0 1023 29.97% 16.44%
20 2003-04-27 50.6 @ Encamp 0 1118 35.62% FC Santa Coloma 0 1187 47.84% 16.54%
21 2002-11-03 49.5 @ SC Escaldes 1 529 16.04% Principat 0 782 68.29% 15.67%
22 2003-03-02 49.4 Lusitanos 5 776 31.49% @ FC Rangers 2 826 52.04% 16.47%
23 2002-12-15 48.3 CE Cerni 2 470 30.07% @ SC Escaldes 1 531 53.49% 16.44%
24 2003-05-04 48.3 Encamp 3 1119 42.54% @ Sant Julia 2 1087 40.88% 16.57%
25 2002-09-22 47.7 @ CE Cerni 3 479 29.14% SC Escaldes 1 598 54.44% 16.41%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-01-19 23.1 @ FC Santa Coloma 8 1173 88.12% SC Escaldes 0 517 1.55% 10.34%
2 2003-02-23 23.2 FC Santa Coloma 7 1182 88.04% @ CE Cerni 0 478 1.58% 10.39%
3 2003-03-02 23.3 @ Encamp 8 1096 87.31% CE Cerni 0 476 1.87% 10.82%
4 2003-03-09 24.0 @ Sant Julia 13 1065 86.21% SC Escaldes 0 489 2.37% 11.42%
5 2002-10-06 24.6 Sant Julia 5 1092 85.19% @ CE Cerni 0 503 2.89% 11.92%
6 2002-10-06 24.9 @ Encamp 7 1014 82.11% SC Escaldes 0 571 4.75% 13.14%
7 2002-11-03 25.3 @ FC Santa Coloma 3 1153 88.29% CE Cerni 0 488 1.48% 10.23%
8 2002-09-29 26.5 FC Santa Coloma 3 1136 84.42% @ SC Escaldes 0 574 3.32% 12.26%
9 2003-01-26 26.5 Encamp 9 1032 82.95% @ SC Escaldes 1 514 4.21% 12.84%
10 2002-11-10 26.9 FC Santa Coloma 5 1154 77.55% @ Principat 0 763 8.09% 14.36%
11 2003-02-16 26.9 @ FC Santa Coloma 4 1174 79.80% Lusitanos 0 788 6.37% 13.83%
12 2002-11-24 27.4 @ FC Rangers 9 879 80.16% CE Cerni 1 484 6.11% 13.73%
13 2003-04-13 27.4 Lusitanos 4 847 78.10% @ CE Cerni 0 445 7.66% 14.24%
14 2003-03-30 28.1 @ Sant Julia 5 1075 73.73% Inter Club d Escaldes 0 800 11.23% 15.04%
15 2003-01-26 28.5 @ Sant Julia 5 1074 86.57% CE Cerni 1 484 2.20% 11.23%
16 2003-03-30 28.5 FC Rangers 5 769 72.18% @ CE Cerni 0 466 12.57% 15.25%
17 2002-10-20 28.6 FC Rangers 6 843 70.63% @ SC Escaldes 0 562 13.93% 15.43%
18 2003-02-26 28.9 @ Encamp 7 1067 69.07% FC Rangers 0 855 15.33% 15.60%
19 2003-04-06 28.9 @ FC Santa Coloma 2 1185 80.41% Inter Club d Escaldes 0 784 5.93% 13.66%
20 2003-05-04 29.3 @ Principat 2 797 79.02% CE Cerni 0 427 6.95% 14.03%
21 2003-04-27 30.3 @ FC Rangers 6 774 77.41% CE Cerni 1 437 8.20% 14.39%
22 2002-11-24 30.4 Sant Julia 4 1092 83.82% @ SC Escaldes 1 548 3.67% 12.51%
23 2002-11-09 30.5 Encamp 4 1021 83.50% @ CE Cerni 1 487 3.87% 12.64%
24 2003-02-23 30.9 @ Principat 2 771 73.70% SC Escaldes 0 496 11.26% 15.04%
25 2002-09-29 31.0 Sant Julia 9 1040 61.91% @ Lusitanos 0 855 21.97% 16.12%