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1999 Armenian Premier League Season

144 games

Final

Champion

Shirak

73 points · 3rd Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Zvartnots-AAC FC

11.07 points above expected

54 points · 42.93 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dvin Artashat

7.98 points below expected

8 points · 15.98 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Shirak Champion 32 23 4 5 73 90 29 +61 70.62 +2.38
2 Ararat 32 22 6 4 72 60 21 +39 62.70 +9.30
3 Araks Ararat 32 22 5 5 71 75 19 +56 68.86 +2.14
4 Zvartnots-AAC FC 32 16 6 10 54 44 38 +6 42.93 +11.07
5 Yerevan 32 15 6 11 51 54 40 +14 56.89 -5.89
6 Erebuni-Homenman FC 32 12 5 15 41 35 41 -6 44.44 -3.44
7 Kilikia 32 10 4 18 34 54 55 -1 39.80 -5.80
8 Dvin Artashat 32 2 2 28 8 20 92 -72 15.98 -7.98
9 Gyumri 32 2 2 28 8 20 117 -97 10.17 -2.17

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Zvartnots-AAC FC 54 42.93 +11.07
2 Ararat 72 62.70 +9.30
3 Shirak 73 70.62 +2.38
4 Araks Ararat 71 68.86 +2.14
5 Gyumri 8 10.17 -2.17

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dvin Artashat 8 15.98 -7.98
2 Yerevan 51 56.89 -5.89
3 Kilikia 34 39.80 -5.80
4 Erebuni-Homenman FC 41 44.44 -3.44
5 Gyumri 8 10.17 -2.17

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ararat 9 Apr 7 – Jul 30 1 in 148
2 Gyumri 1 Oct 21 – Oct 21 1 in 44
3 Araks Ararat 7 May 16 – Sep 16 1 in 40
4 Kilikia 3 Sep 16 – Sep 26 1 in 15
5 Shirak 9 May 16 – Sep 22 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kilikia 4 Apr 26 – May 16 1 in 1,016
2 Dvin Artashat 14 Oct 1 – Dec 8 1 in 72
3 Gyumri 18 Mar 7 – Sep 16 1 in 34
4 Araks Ararat 2 Apr 7 – Apr 16 1 in 21
5 Yerevan 4 Nov 7 – Nov 26 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Erebuni-Homenman FC 6 Apr 7 – May 16 1 in 312
2 Ararat 13 Mar 7 – Jul 30 1 in 81
3 Zvartnots-AAC FC 6 Oct 17 – Nov 17 1 in 18
4 Yerevan 8 Mar 11 – May 16 1 in 13
5 Araks Ararat 11 Oct 21 – Dec 8 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dvin Artashat 20 Jul 18 – Dec 8 1 in 20
2 Kilikia 6 Oct 13 – Nov 3 1 in 7
3 Araks Ararat 2 Apr 7 – Apr 16 1 in 6
4 Erebuni-Homenman FC 5 Jul 30 – Sep 26 1 in 6
5 Shirak 2 Apr 7 – Apr 16 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Shirak 1453 70 +35 10 10.5 -0.5
Ararat 1292 69 +42 10 8.1 +1.9
Araks Ararat 1475 68 +29 11 11.4 -0.4
Zvartnots-AAC FC 1235 48 +68 12 7.0 +5.0
Yerevan 1108 45 -48 4 6.6 -2.6
Erebuni-Homenman FC 1012 35 -5 6 6.6 -0.6
Kilikia 965 31 -106 3 6.0 -3.0
Dvin Artashat 658 8 -46 0 1.4 -1.4
Gyumri 538 5 -4 1 1.0 -0.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AA ARA DA ERE GYU KIL SHI YER ZVA
Araks Ararat —
1-2-1
7.01
4-0-0
10.57
3-0-1
9.34
4-0-0
11.01
2-1-1
9.56
2-1-1
5.50
3-1-0
7.38
3-0-1
9.69
Ararat
1-2-1
4.35
 —
4-0-0
9.70
4-0-0
7.63
4-0-0
10.83
3-1-0
9.08
2-1-1
3.99
2-1-1
6.62
2-1-1
8.61
Dvin Artashat
0-0-4
0.90
0-0-4
1.72
 —
0-0-4
1.91
2-1-1
8.71
0-1-3
2.62
0-0-4
1.14
0-0-4
1.35
0-0-4
2.93
Erebuni-Homenman FC
1-0-3
2.05
0-0-4
3.74
4-0-0
9.48
 —
4-0-0
10.48
3-0-1
6.37
0-0-4
2.42
0-2-2
4.13
0-3-1
5.65
Gyumri
0-0-4
0.53
0-0-4
0.66
1-1-2
2.67
0-0-4
0.96
 —
0-0-4
1.06
0-0-4
0.62
1-1-2
0.76
0-0-4
1.33
Kilikia
1-1-2
1.83
0-1-3
2.30
3-1-0
8.76
1-0-3
5.00
4-0-0
10.37
 —
0-0-4
1.86
1-0-3
3.21
0-1-3
4.92
Shirak
1-1-2
5.86
1-1-2
7.38
4-0-0
10.30
4-0-0
8.96
4-0-0
10.88
4-0-0
9.53
 —
2-1-1
7.90
3-1-0
9.44
Yerevan
0-1-3
3.99
1-1-2
4.75
4-0-0
10.07
2-2-0
7.24
2-1-1
10.72
3-0-1
8.17
1-1-2
3.48
 —
2-0-2
8.28
Zvartnots-AAC FC
1-0-3
1.71
1-1-2
2.77
4-0-0
8.46
1-3-0
5.72
4-0-0
10.10
3-1-0
6.45
0-1-3
1.95
2-0-2
3.09
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +9.6
Allowed 0.89 -7.2
Differential 0.94 +4.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.94%7.29%5.21%3.82%1.04%4.86%29.17%
17.29%6.25%5.56%2.78%1.74%2.78%26.39%
25.21%5.56%0.69%1.04%1.04%0.69%14.24%
33.82%2.78%1.04%—0.35%0.69%8.68%
41.04%1.74%1.04%0.35%—0.35%4.51%
5+4.86%2.78%0.69%0.69%0.35%7.64%17.01%
Total29.17%26.39%14.24%8.68%4.51%17.01%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.49 1.49 +0.00
SD 1.99 1.99 2.89
CV 1.33 1.33 —
Max 11 11 +10
Min -1 -1 -10

Games Played: 144

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%————18.75%
19.38%9.38%3.12%———21.88%
212.50%3.12%————15.62%
39.38%9.38%3.12%———21.88%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+6.25%9.38%———3.12%18.75%
Total43.75%46.88%6.25%——3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.31 0.56 +1.75
SD 2.26 0.67 2.31
CV 0.98 1.19 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min -1 -1 -1

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%3.12%3.12%—3.12%—18.75%
118.75%9.38%3.12%———31.25%
26.25%9.38%————15.62%
312.50%3.12%————15.62%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+3.12%3.12%3.12%——3.12%12.50%
Total50.00%34.38%9.38%—3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.84 0.62 +1.22
SD 1.78 0.94 2.00
CV 0.97 1.51 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.12%9.38%9.38%3.12%9.38%34.38%
1—6.25%—6.25%6.25%15.62%34.38%
2—3.12%————3.12%
3———————
4———————
5+———3.12%—25.00%28.12%
Total—12.50%9.38%18.75%9.38%50.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.38 2.62 -2.25
SD 1.48 2.96 2.77
CV 3.93 1.13 —
Max 7 11 +4
Min -1 -1 -10

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%15.62%6.25%6.25%—3.12%46.88%
1——3.12%—3.12%3.12%9.38%
212.50%3.12%———3.12%18.75%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
4———————
5+6.25%————9.38%15.62%
Total40.62%21.88%9.38%6.25%3.12%18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.19 -0.19
SD 1.67 1.97 2.67
CV 1.67 1.66 —
Max 6 7 +6
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.12%12.50%12.50%—25.00%53.12%
1—3.12%9.38%6.25%—6.25%25.00%
2—3.12%3.12%——3.12%9.38%
3————3.12%3.12%6.25%
4———————
5+—————6.25%6.25%
Total—9.38%25.00%18.75%3.12%43.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 3.59 -3.03
SD 0.98 2.49 2.52
CV 1.75 0.69 —
Max 3 9 +1
Min -1 -1 -9

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%6.25%3.12%—3.12%28.12%
13.12%6.25%9.38%6.25%3.12%—28.12%
29.38%3.12%—3.12%9.38%—25.00%
3—————3.12%3.12%
4———————
5+9.38%3.12%———3.12%15.62%
Total28.12%21.88%15.62%12.50%12.50%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 1.69 -0.03
SD 2.15 1.67 2.91
CV 1.30 0.99 —
Max 9 5 +9
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%3.12%———12.50%
19.38%9.38%6.25%———25.00%
2—6.25%————6.25%
36.25%6.25%3.12%———15.62%
46.25%6.25%3.12%3.12%——18.75%
5+12.50%3.12%——3.12%3.12%21.88%
Total37.50%37.50%15.62%3.12%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 0.88 +1.91
SD 2.47 1.04 2.57
CV 0.89 1.19 —
Max 11 4 +10
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%6.25%—3.12%3.12%28.12%
19.38%6.25%9.38%———25.00%
23.12%6.25%3.12%3.12%——15.62%
3———————
4——6.25%———6.25%
5+6.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%—9.38%25.00%
Total28.12%21.88%28.12%6.25%3.12%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.16 +0.44
SD 2.12 1.42 2.35
CV 1.33 1.23 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%—3.12%——21.88%
115.62%6.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%—37.50%
23.12%12.50%—3.12%——18.75%
3—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
43.12%————3.12%6.25%
5+—3.12%———6.25%9.38%
Total34.38%31.25%9.38%12.50%3.12%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.12 +0.19
SD 1.49 1.52 1.73
CV 1.14 1.35 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Araks Ararat 1475 71 68.86 +2.14 73.0% 53 59 65 69 72 79 85
Shirak 1453 73 70.62 +2.38 69.0% 55 60 66 71 74 81 88
Ararat 1292 72 62.70 +9.30 94.0% 46 53 58 63 67 73 76
Zvartnots-AAC FC 1235 54 42.93 +11.07 99.0% 30 33 39 43 46 52 58
Yerevan 1108 51 56.89 -5.89 20.0% 34 45 53 56 62 69 76
Erebuni-Homenman FC 1012 41 44.44 -3.44 32.0% 29 34 40 45 49 54 65
Kilikia 965 34 39.80 -5.80 23.0% 26 30 35 40 44 51 54
Dvin Artashat 658 8 15.98 -7.98 0.0% 9 10 13 15 18 24 30
Gyumri 538 8 10.17 -2.17 34.0% 5 5 8 10 13 16 18

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.50%
Clear Edge
49.31%13.89%36.81%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 41.21 Elo pts.
192 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.44 goals
Neutral
-2+0.21+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
55%
Shirak, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Photo Finish
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.64 * Some Luck: 4.64 to 6.96 * Lucky: 6.96 to 9.28 * Wild Swing: 9.28 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.46 * Close: 0.46 to 0.68 * Off: 0.68 to 0.91 * Way Off: 0.91 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.39 points
Some Luck
05.8014
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.67
Close
00.571.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
99.00%
Zvartnots-AAC FC
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.00%
Dvin Artashat
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.29
Lopsided
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 327.02
3.21
Wide Separation
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
87%
Clear Edge
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Some Drama
0%39%100%
Blowouts
Expected
31%
Frequent
0%39%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.40
Highly Predictable
00.432
Matchup Imbalance
0.64
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.35
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.65
Strong Carryover
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Solid Favorites
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.
Probability calibration
0.03
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.01
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.093
Well Within Noise
00.1100.25

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Shirak55.00%27.00%15.00%3.00%—————
Ararat9.00%23.00%46.00%19.00%3.00%————
Araks Ararat31.00%44.00%17.00%7.00%1.00%————
Zvartnots-AAC FC———5.00%34.00%39.00%22.00%——
Yerevan5.00%5.00%20.00%57.00%10.00%1.00%2.00%——
Erebuni-Homenman FC—1.00%2.00%6.00%34.00%38.00%19.00%——
Kilikia———3.00%18.00%22.00%57.00%——
Dvin Artashat———————85.00%15.00%
Gyumri———————15.00%85.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Araks Ararat 100% — —
Ararat 100% — —
Erebuni-Homenman FC 81.00% 19.00% —
Kilikia 43.00% 57.00% —
Shirak 100% — —
Yerevan 98.00% 2.00% —
Zvartnots-AAC FC 78.00% 22.00% —
Dvin Artashat — — 100%
Gyumri — — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1999-03-07 Shirak L 0-623.7 642 1282 2.31% 13.63% 84.06%-3.12 -8.7 0
1999-03-07 @ Gyumri W 6-023.7 1282 642 84.06% 13.63% 2.31%+3.12 +8.7 3
1999-03-07 Zvartnots-AAC FC W 1-031.0 1319 929 79.84% 14.65% 5.50%+2.25 +4.0 3
1999-03-07 @ Araks Ararat L 0-131.0 929 1319 5.50% 14.65% 79.84%-2.25 -4.0 0
1999-03-07 Ararat L 0-236.1 978 1132 27.53% 15.86% 56.61%-0.59 -34.8 0
1999-03-07 @ Dvin Artashat W 2-036.1 1132 978 56.61% 15.86% 27.53%+0.59 +34.8 3
1999-03-07 Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-241.1 1068 1098 44.08% 15.95% 39.97%+0.06 -52.2 0
1999-03-07 @ Kilikia W 2-041.1 1098 1068 39.97% 15.95% 44.08%-0.06 +52.2 3
1999-03-11 Zvartnots-AAC FC L 1-336.2 633 925 14.62% 15.52% 69.86%-1.30 -16.9 0
1999-03-11 @ Gyumri W 3-136.2 925 633 69.86% 15.52% 14.62%+1.30 +16.9 3
1999-03-11 Erebuni-Homenman FC W 1-039.9 1167 1150 50.54% 15.92% 33.53%+0.30 +21.9 6
1999-03-11 @ Ararat L 0-139.9 1150 1167 33.53% 15.92% 50.54%-0.30 -21.9 3
1999-03-11 Shirak L 1-335.1 943 1291 10.97% 15.30% 73.72%-1.60 -12.9 0
1999-03-11 @ Dvin Artashat W 3-135.1 1291 943 73.72% 15.30% 10.97%+1.60 +12.9 6
1999-03-11 Kilikia W 4-238.6 1289 1016 74.56% 15.24% 10.20%+1.63 +10.7 3
1999-03-11 @ Yerevan L 2-438.6 1016 1289 10.20% 15.24% 74.56%-1.63 -10.7 0
1999-03-17 Yerevan D 1-156.1 1323 1299 51.45% 15.92% 32.63%+0.34 -2.7 4
1999-03-17 @ Araks Ararat D 1-156.1 1299 1323 32.63% 15.92% 51.45%-0.34 +2.7 4
1999-03-17 Gyumri W 3-026.0 1189 617 84.46% 13.48% 2.06%+3.19 +4.1 9
1999-03-17 @ Ararat L 0-326.0 617 1189 2.06% 13.48% 84.46%-3.19 -4.0 0
1999-03-17 Dvin Artashat D 1-155.0 1005 930 57.74% 15.85% 26.41%+0.60 -4.5 1
1999-03-17 @ Kilikia D 1-155.0 930 1005 26.41% 15.85% 57.74%-0.60 +4.5 1
1999-03-17 Zvartnots-AAC FC W 2-135.1 1304 941 78.81% 14.81% 6.39%+2.10 +4.4 9
1999-03-17 @ Shirak L 1-235.1 941 1304 6.39% 14.81% 78.81%-2.10 -4.4 3
1999-03-21 Dvin Artashat L 3-736.0 612 935 12.52% 15.40% 72.08%-1.46 -20.6 0
1999-03-21 @ Gyumri W 7-336.0 935 612 72.08% 15.40% 12.52%+1.46 +20.6 4
1999-03-21 Shirak L 0-333.8 1128 1308 24.61% 15.82% 59.57%-0.72 -45.7 3
1999-03-21 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC W 3-033.8 1308 1128 59.57% 15.82% 24.61%+0.72 +45.7 12
1999-03-21 Araks Ararat L 0-133.5 1000 1320 12.65% 15.41% 71.94%-1.45 -9.0 1
1999-03-21 @ Kilikia W 1-033.5 1320 1000 71.94% 15.41% 12.65%+1.45 +9.0 7
1999-03-21 Ararat D 0-052.3 1302 1193 61.54% 15.78% 22.68%+0.78 -6.4 5
1999-03-21 @ Yerevan D 0-052.3 1193 1302 22.68% 15.78% 61.54%-0.78 +6.4 10
1999-04-07 Erebuni-Homenman FC L 1-255.4 1329 1083 72.99% 15.35% 11.66%+1.50 -42.2 7
1999-04-07 @ Araks Ararat W 2-155.4 1083 1329 11.66% 15.35% 72.99%-1.50 +42.2 6
1999-04-07 Gyumri W 9-025.2 991 592 80.15% 14.60% 5.25%+2.29 +29.5 4
1999-04-07 @ Kilikia L 0-925.2 592 991 5.25% 14.60% 80.15%-2.29 -29.5 0
1999-04-07 Ararat L 1-253.9 1354 1199 65.99% 15.67% 18.35%+1.02 -38.0 12
1999-04-07 @ Shirak W 2-153.9 1199 1354 18.35% 15.67% 65.99%-1.02 +38.0 13
1999-04-07 Yerevan L 1-236.4 937 1296 10.40% 15.26% 74.34%-1.65 -7.1 3
1999-04-07 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC W 2-136.4 1296 937 74.34% 15.26% 10.40%+1.65 +7.1 8
1999-04-16 Zvartnots-AAC FC FL49.8 955 930 51.67% 15.92% 32.42%+0.35 +0.0 4
1999-04-16 @ Dvin Artashat FW49.8 930 955 32.42% 15.92% 51.67%-0.35 +0.0 6
1999-04-16 Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-228.4 562 1125 3.53% 14.15% 82.32%-2.71 -4.9 0
1999-04-16 @ Gyumri W 2-028.4 1125 562 82.32% 14.15% 3.53%+2.71 +4.8 9
1999-04-16 Araks Ararat W 1-043.1 1237 1287 41.27% 15.95% 42.78%-0.05 +27.0 16
1999-04-16 @ Ararat L 0-143.1 1287 1237 42.78% 15.95% 41.27%+0.05 -27.0 7
1999-04-16 Shirak D 1-156.1 1303 1316 46.45% 15.94% 37.60%+0.14 -1.2 9
1999-04-16 @ Yerevan D 1-156.1 1316 1303 37.60% 15.94% 46.45%-0.14 +1.2 13
1999-04-26 Dvin Artashat W 5-130.9 1260 955 76.25% 15.10% 8.65%+1.80 +18.7 10
1999-04-26 @ Araks Ararat L 1-530.9 955 1260 8.65% 15.10% 76.25%-1.80 -18.7 4
1999-04-26 Zvartnots-AAC FC W 3-028.1 1264 930 77.63% 14.95% 7.42%+1.95 +14.8 19
1999-04-26 @ Ararat L 0-328.1 930 1264 7.42% 14.95% 77.63%-1.95 -14.8 6
1999-04-26 Kilikia W 3-134.5 1317 1021 75.83% 15.14% 9.03%+1.76 +10.7 16
1999-04-26 @ Shirak L 1-334.5 1021 1317 9.03% 15.14% 75.83%-1.76 -10.7 4
1999-04-26 Erebuni-Homenman FC D 0-052.1 1302 1130 67.47% 15.62% 16.91%+1.11 -8.5 10
1999-04-26 @ Yerevan D 0-052.1 1130 1302 16.91% 15.62% 67.47%-1.11 +8.5 10
1999-05-06 Dvin Artashat W 2-032.2 1138 937 69.83% 15.52% 14.65%+1.26 +19.6 13
1999-05-06 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-232.2 937 1138 14.65% 15.52% 69.83%-1.26 -19.6 4
1999-05-06 Araks Ararat L 0-147.1 1328 1279 54.68% 15.89% 29.44%+0.47 -33.6 16
1999-05-06 @ Shirak W 1-047.1 1279 1328 29.44% 15.89% 54.68%-0.47 +33.6 13
1999-05-06 Gyumri W 6-022.8 1293 558 86.92% 12.24% 0.84%+4.04 +3.1 13
1999-05-06 @ Yerevan L 0-622.8 558 1293 0.84% 12.24% 86.92%-4.04 -3.1 0
1999-05-06 Kilikia W 1-044.4 915 1010 35.02% 15.93% 49.05%-0.28 +30.4 9
1999-05-06 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 0-144.4 1010 915 49.05% 15.93% 35.02%+0.28 -30.4 4
1999-05-16 Gyumri W 3-131.0 1313 554 87.20% 12.06% 0.74%+4.16 +0.9 16
1999-05-16 @ Araks Ararat L 1-331.0 554 1313 0.74% 12.06% 87.20%-4.16 -0.9 0
1999-05-16 Kilikia W 2-136.0 1279 980 75.97% 15.12% 8.91%+1.77 +6.1 22
1999-05-16 @ Ararat L 1-236.0 980 1279 8.91% 15.12% 75.97%-1.77 -6.1 4
1999-05-16 Yerevan L 0-526.7 917 1296 9.36% 15.17% 75.47%-1.76 -29.8 4
1999-05-16 @ Dvin Artashat W 5-026.7 1296 917 75.47% 15.17% 9.36%+1.76 +29.8 16
1999-05-16 Erebuni-Homenman FC D 0-051.8 946 1158 21.32% 15.75% 62.93%-0.89 +6.9 10
1999-05-16 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC D 0-051.8 1158 946 62.93% 15.75% 21.32%+0.89 -6.9 14
1999-05-16 Dvin Artashat W 3-027.4 1285 887 80.10% 14.61% 5.29%+2.28 +10.6 25
1999-05-16 @ Ararat L 0-327.4 887 1285 5.29% 14.61% 80.10%-2.28 -10.6 4
1999-05-16 Kilikia W 5-028.9 1151 974 67.91% 15.60% 16.49%+1.14 +51.1 17
1999-05-16 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-528.9 974 1151 16.49% 15.60% 67.91%-1.14 -51.1 4
1999-05-16 Gyumri W 5-023.1 1294 554 86.99% 12.19% 0.82%+4.07 +2.5 19
1999-05-16 @ Shirak L 0-523.1 554 1294 0.82% 12.19% 86.99%-4.07 -2.5 0
1999-05-16 Araks Ararat W 1-051.9 952 1313 10.28% 15.25% 74.47%-1.66 +45.7 13
1999-05-16 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 0-151.9 1313 952 74.47% 15.25% 10.28%+1.66 -45.7 16
1999-05-16 Ararat L 0-238.9 1202 1296 35.16% 15.93% 48.91%-0.27 -43.1 17
1999-05-16 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC W 2-038.9 1296 1202 48.91% 15.93% 35.16%+0.27 +43.0 28
1999-05-16 Yerevan W 2-156.3 923 1326 8.25% 15.05% 76.70%-1.88 +44.4 7
1999-05-16 @ Kilikia L 1-256.3 1326 923 76.70% 15.05% 8.25%+1.88 -44.5 16
1999-05-16 Dvin Artashat W 4-131.2 1297 877 80.83% 14.48% 4.69%+2.40 +7.9 22
1999-05-16 @ Shirak L 1-431.2 877 1297 4.69% 14.48% 80.83%-2.40 -7.9 4
1999-05-16 Gyumri W 1-030.4 998 551 81.62% 14.32% 4.06%+2.54 +3.0 16
1999-05-16 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 0-130.4 551 998 4.06% 14.32% 81.62%-2.54 -3.0 0
1999-05-16 Ararat L 0-722.9 548 1339 1.01% 12.51% 86.48%-3.90 -4.3 0
1999-05-16 @ Gyumri W 7-022.9 1339 548 86.48% 12.51% 1.01%+3.90 +4.3 31
1999-05-16 Dvin Artashat W 7-133.3 967 869 60.37% 15.80% 23.83%+0.73 +70.1 10
1999-05-16 @ Kilikia L 1-733.3 869 967 23.83% 15.80% 60.37%-0.73 -70.1 4
1999-05-16 Araks Ararat L 0-243.6 1282 1268 50.16% 15.93% 33.92%+0.29 -58.4 16
1999-05-16 @ Yerevan W 2-043.6 1268 1282 33.92% 15.93% 50.16%-0.29 +58.4 19
1999-05-16 Shirak L 4-643.5 1001 1305 13.73% 15.47% 70.80%-1.37 -13.0 16
1999-05-16 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC W 6-443.5 1305 1001 70.80% 15.47% 13.73%+1.37 +13.0 25
1999-05-16 Kilikia W 3-134.7 1326 1037 75.43% 15.17% 9.40%+1.72 +11.1 22
1999-05-16 @ Araks Ararat L 1-334.7 1037 1326 9.40% 15.17% 75.43%-1.72 -11.1 10
1999-05-16 Gyumri W 2-136.6 799 544 73.49% 15.32% 11.19%+1.54 +7.6 7
1999-05-16 @ Dvin Artashat L 1-236.6 544 799 11.19% 15.32% 73.49%-1.54 -7.6 0
1999-05-16 Erebuni-Homenman FC W 1-035.4 1318 1159 66.36% 15.65% 17.98%+1.04 +12.5 28
1999-05-16 @ Shirak L 0-135.4 1159 1318 17.98% 15.65% 66.36%-1.04 -12.6 17
1999-05-16 Kilikia L 0-229.0 536 1026 5.22% 14.60% 80.19%-2.33 -7.2 0
1999-05-16 @ Gyumri W 2-029.0 1026 536 80.19% 14.60% 5.22%+2.33 +7.2 13
1999-05-16 Araks Ararat L 0-333.6 1146 1337 23.46% 15.80% 60.74%-0.78 -43.8 17
1999-05-16 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC W 3-033.6 1337 1146 60.74% 15.80% 23.46%+0.78 +43.8 25
1999-05-16 Zvartnots-AAC FC W 1-033.3 1223 988 72.21% 15.40% 12.39%+1.44 +8.9 19
1999-05-16 @ Yerevan L 0-133.3 988 1223 12.39% 15.40% 72.21%-1.44 -8.9 16
1999-07-18 Yerevan W 1-037.2 1343 1232 61.75% 15.78% 22.47%+0.79 +15.4 34
1999-07-18 @ Ararat L 0-137.2 1232 1343 22.47% 15.78% 61.75%-0.79 -15.4 19
1999-07-18 Gyumri W 3-026.0 1102 529 84.48% 13.47% 2.04%+3.20 +4.0 20
1999-07-18 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-326.0 529 1102 2.04% 13.47% 84.48%-3.20 -4.0 0
1999-07-18 Dvin Artashat W 6-132.1 979 806 67.56% 15.61% 16.83%+1.11 +43.1 19
1999-07-18 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 1-632.1 806 979 16.83% 15.61% 67.56%-1.11 -43.1 7
1999-07-30 Araks Ararat L 1-626.2 525 1381 0.71% 11.99% 87.30%-4.24 -1.8 0
1999-07-30 @ Gyumri W 6-126.2 1381 525 87.30% 11.99% 0.71%+4.24 +1.8 28
1999-07-30 Zvartnots-AAC FC D 0-051.8 1106 1022 58.81% 15.83% 25.36%+0.65 -5.4 21
1999-07-30 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC D 0-051.8 1022 1106 25.36% 15.83% 58.81%-0.65 +5.4 20
1999-07-30 Ararat L 0-133.4 1033 1358 12.32% 15.39% 72.28%-1.48 -8.8 13
1999-07-30 @ Kilikia W 1-033.4 1358 1033 72.28% 15.39% 12.32%+1.48 +8.8 37
1999-07-30 Dvin Artashat W 2-028.6 1217 763 81.79% 14.28% 3.93%+2.57 +5.4 22
1999-07-30 @ Yerevan L 0-228.6 763 1217 3.93% 14.28% 81.79%-2.57 -5.4 7
1999-08-04 Ararat W 2-040.6 1383 1367 50.38% 15.93% 33.70%+0.30 +41.5 31
1999-08-04 @ Araks Ararat L 0-240.6 1367 1383 33.70% 15.93% 50.38%-0.30 -41.5 37
1999-08-04 Yerevan W 1-037.1 1330 1222 61.48% 15.78% 22.74%+0.78 +15.6 31
1999-08-04 @ Shirak L 0-137.1 1222 1330 22.74% 15.78% 61.48%-0.78 -15.6 22
1999-08-25 Ararat D 1-155.3 1028 1326 14.13% 15.49% 70.37%-1.34 +8.5 21
1999-08-25 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC D 1-155.3 1326 1028 70.37% 15.49% 14.13%+1.34 -8.5 38
1999-08-29 Zvartnots-AAC FC W 3-239.1 1424 1036 79.75% 14.67% 5.58%+2.23 +3.6 34
1999-08-29 @ Araks Ararat L 2-339.1 1036 1424 5.58% 14.67% 79.75%-2.23 -3.6 21
1999-08-29 Ararat L 0-326.7 758 1317 3.59% 14.17% 82.24%-2.70 -7.2 7
1999-08-29 @ Dvin Artashat W 3-026.7 1317 758 82.24% 14.17% 3.59%+2.70 +7.2 41
1999-08-29 Erebuni-Homenman FC W 2-041.9 1024 1101 37.50% 15.94% 46.56%-0.18 +54.7 16
1999-08-29 @ Kilikia L 0-241.9 1101 1024 46.56% 15.94% 37.50%+0.18 -54.7 21
1999-09-06 Shirak L 3-439.8 523 1346 0.85% 12.25% 86.90%-4.07 -0.5 0
1999-09-06 @ Gyumri W 4-339.8 1346 523 86.90% 12.25% 0.85%+4.07 +0.5 34
1999-09-12 Zvartnots-AAC FC L 1-234.4 523 1033 4.68% 14.48% 80.84%-2.44 -3.2 0
1999-09-12 @ Gyumri W 2-134.4 1033 523 80.84% 14.48% 4.68%+2.44 +3.2 24
1999-09-12 Erebuni-Homenman FC W 5-236.2 1324 1046 74.84% 15.22% 9.95%+1.66 +14.3 44
1999-09-12 @ Ararat L 2-536.2 1046 1324 9.95% 15.22% 74.84%-1.66 -14.3 21
1999-09-12 Shirak L 0-425.1 751 1347 2.94% 13.93% 83.12%-2.89 -7.6 7
1999-09-12 @ Dvin Artashat W 4-025.1 1347 751 83.12% 13.93% 2.94%+2.89 +7.6 37
1999-09-12 Kilikia W 5-344.4 1206 1079 63.38% 15.74% 20.88%+0.88 +19.9 25
1999-09-12 @ Yerevan L 3-544.4 1079 1206 20.88% 15.74% 63.38%-0.88 -19.9 16
1999-09-16 Yerevan W 2-033.5 1428 1226 69.86% 15.52% 14.62%+1.26 +19.5 37
1999-09-16 @ Araks Ararat L 0-233.5 1226 1428 14.62% 15.52% 69.86%-1.26 -19.5 25
1999-09-16 Gyumri W 5-127.4 1339 519 87.91% 11.56% 0.53%+4.48 +1.1 47
1999-09-16 @ Ararat L 1-527.4 519 1339 0.53% 11.56% 87.91%-4.48 -1.1 0
1999-09-16 Dvin Artashat W 5-026.2 1059 743 76.80% 15.04% 8.16%+1.86 +26.1 19
1999-09-16 @ Kilikia L 0-526.2 743 1059 8.16% 15.04% 76.80%-1.86 -26.1 7
1999-09-16 Zvartnots-AAC FC W 4-132.5 1354 1036 76.90% 15.03% 8.07%+1.87 +13.5 40
1999-09-16 @ Shirak L 1-432.5 1036 1354 8.07% 15.03% 76.90%-1.87 -13.5 24
1999-09-22 Dvin Artashat D 1-155.1 518 717 22.67% 15.78% 61.55%-0.82 +5.7 1
1999-09-22 @ Gyumri D 1-155.1 717 518 61.55% 15.78% 22.67%+0.82 -5.7 8
1999-09-22 Shirak L 1-237.0 1032 1368 11.69% 15.35% 72.96%-1.53 -7.9 21
1999-09-22 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC W 2-137.0 1368 1032 72.96% 15.35% 11.69%+1.53 +7.9 43
1999-09-22 Araks Ararat W 1-052.4 1085 1447 10.21% 15.24% 74.55%-1.67 +45.8 22
1999-09-22 @ Kilikia L 0-152.4 1447 1085 74.55% 15.24% 10.21%+1.67 -45.8 37
1999-09-22 Ararat W 1-046.5 1207 1340 30.08% 15.89% 54.02%-0.48 +33.2 28
1999-09-22 @ Yerevan L 0-146.5 1340 1207 54.02% 15.89% 30.08%+0.48 -33.2 47
1999-09-26 Erebuni-Homenman FC W 4-131.8 1402 1024 79.38% 14.72% 5.90%+2.18 +9.9 40
1999-09-26 @ Araks Ararat L 1-431.8 1024 1402 5.90% 14.72% 79.38%-2.18 -9.9 21
1999-09-26 Gyumri W 5-023.7 1131 524 85.07% 13.23% 1.70%+3.37 +5.4 25
1999-09-26 @ Kilikia L 0-523.7 524 1131 1.70% 13.23% 85.07%-3.37 -5.4 1
1999-09-26 Ararat D 1-156.7 1376 1307 57.07% 15.86% 27.07%+0.57 -4.3 44
1999-09-26 @ Shirak D 1-156.7 1307 1376 27.07% 15.86% 57.07%-0.57 +4.3 48
1999-09-26 Yerevan W 4-043.9 1022 1240 20.80% 15.74% 63.47%-0.92 +138.8 27
1999-09-26 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 0-443.9 1240 1022 63.47% 15.74% 20.80%+0.92 -138.8 28
1999-10-01 Zvartnots-AAC FC L 0-131.3 711 1161 6.45% 14.82% 78.73%-2.13 -4.7 8
1999-10-01 @ Dvin Artashat W 1-031.3 1161 711 78.73% 14.82% 6.45%+2.13 +4.7 30
1999-10-02 Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-624.8 519 1014 5.06% 14.56% 80.38%-2.36 -19.3 1
1999-10-02 @ Gyumri W 6-024.8 1014 519 80.38% 14.56% 5.06%+2.36 +19.3 24
1999-10-02 Araks Ararat D 1-157.2 1311 1412 34.25% 15.93% 49.82%-0.31 +2.2 49
1999-10-02 @ Ararat D 1-157.2 1412 1311 49.82% 15.93% 34.25%+0.31 -2.2 41
1999-10-02 Shirak W 2-154.2 1101 1371 16.20% 15.59% 68.22%-1.19 +39.3 31
1999-10-02 @ Yerevan L 1-254.2 1371 1101 68.22% 15.59% 16.20%+1.19 -39.3 44
1999-10-07 Dvin Artashat W 4-129.9 1313 707 85.06% 13.23% 1.71%+3.37 +2.8 52
1999-10-07 @ Ararat L 1-429.9 707 1313 1.71% 13.23% 85.06%-3.37 -2.8 8
1999-10-13 Erebuni-Homenman FC FW49.8 1140 1034 61.31% 15.79% 22.91%+0.77 +0.0 34
1999-10-13 @ Yerevan FL49.8 1034 1140 22.91% 15.79% 61.31%-0.77 +0.0 24
1999-10-13 Dvin Artashat W 7-022.9 1409 704 86.54% 12.47% 0.99%+3.89 +4.2 44
1999-10-13 @ Araks Ararat L 0-722.9 704 1409 0.99% 12.47% 86.54%-3.89 -4.2 8
1999-10-13 Zvartnots-AAC FC W 3-137.9 1316 1166 65.55% 15.68% 18.77%+1.00 +21.3 55
1999-10-13 @ Ararat L 1-337.9 1166 1316 18.77% 15.68% 65.55%-1.00 -21.3 30
1999-10-13 Kilikia W 4-240.4 1332 1136 69.38% 15.54% 15.08%+1.23 +15.6 47
1999-10-13 @ Shirak L 2-440.4 1136 1332 15.08% 15.54% 69.38%-1.23 -15.6 25
1999-10-17 Dvin Artashat FW50.1 1034 700 77.62% 14.95% 7.43%+1.95 +0.0 27
1999-10-17 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC FL50.1 700 1034 7.43% 14.95% 77.62%-1.95 +0.0 8
1999-10-17 Araks Ararat W 1-046.1 1348 1414 38.97% 15.95% 45.09%-0.13 +28.2 50
1999-10-17 @ Shirak L 0-146.1 1414 1348 45.09% 15.95% 38.97%+0.13 -28.2 44
1999-10-17 Gyumri W 6-230.5 1140 499 85.62% 12.97% 1.41%+3.55 +2.5 37
1999-10-17 @ Yerevan L 2-630.5 499 1140 1.41% 12.97% 85.62%-3.55 -2.6 1
1999-10-17 Kilikia W 2-143.3 1145 1121 51.45% 15.92% 32.63%+0.34 +20.2 33
1999-10-17 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 1-243.3 1121 1145 32.63% 15.92% 51.45%-0.34 -20.2 25
1999-10-21 Shirak L 0-439.8 1337 1376 42.92% 15.95% 41.13%+0.01 -96.8 55
1999-10-21 @ Ararat W 4-039.8 1376 1337 41.13% 15.95% 42.92%-0.01 +96.8 53
1999-10-21 Araks Ararat L 0-325.9 700 1385 1.80% 13.30% 84.90%-3.35 -3.5 8
1999-10-21 @ Dvin Artashat W 3-025.9 1385 700 84.90% 13.30% 1.80%+3.35 +3.5 47
1999-10-21 Yerevan D 0-051.8 1034 1143 33.08% 15.92% 50.99%-0.36 +2.8 28
1999-10-21 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC D 0-051.8 1143 1034 50.99% 15.92% 33.08%+0.36 -2.8 38
1999-10-21 Shirak L 2-341.0 1101 1472 9.72% 15.20% 75.08%-1.72 -6.3 25
1999-10-21 @ Kilikia W 3-241.0 1472 1101 75.08% 15.20% 9.72%+1.72 +6.3 56
1999-10-21 Yerevan W 2-158.0 497 1140 2.27% 13.61% 84.12%-3.13 +48.5 4
1999-10-21 @ Gyumri L 1-258.0 1140 497 84.12% 13.61% 2.27%+3.13 -48.5 38
1999-10-21 Shirak W 2-047.8 1389 1479 35.71% 15.94% 48.35%-0.25 +56.5 50
1999-10-21 @ Araks Ararat L 0-247.8 1479 1389 48.35% 15.94% 35.71%+0.25 -56.6 56
1999-10-21 Erebuni-Homenman FC L 1-335.2 696 1036 11.42% 15.33% 73.25%-1.56 -13.4 8
1999-10-21 @ Dvin Artashat W 3-135.2 1036 696 73.25% 15.33% 11.42%+1.56 +13.4 31
1999-10-21 Zvartnots-AAC FC D 0-051.8 1094 1165 38.38% 15.95% 45.67%-0.15 +1.1 26
1999-10-21 @ Kilikia D 0-051.8 1165 1094 45.67% 15.95% 38.38%+0.15 -1.1 34
1999-10-21 Yerevan L 1-629.3 683 1092 8.01% 15.03% 76.97%-1.91 -21.2 8
1999-10-21 @ Dvin Artashat W 6-129.3 1092 683 76.97% 15.03% 8.01%+1.91 +21.2 41
1999-10-24 Gyumri W 8-022.4 1446 545 88.77% 10.89% 0.34%+4.90 +1.6 53
1999-10-24 @ Araks Ararat L 0-822.4 545 1446 0.34% 10.89% 88.77%-4.90 -1.6 4
1999-10-24 Erebuni-Homenman FC D 0-051.9 1164 1050 62.03% 15.77% 22.20%+0.81 -6.6 35
1999-10-24 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC D 0-051.9 1050 1164 22.20% 15.77% 62.03%-0.81 +6.5 32
1999-10-25 Kilikia D 0-052.0 1241 1096 65.08% 15.69% 19.22%+0.97 -7.6 56
1999-10-25 @ Ararat D 0-052.0 1096 1241 19.22% 15.69% 65.08%-0.97 +7.6 27
1999-11-03 Ararat L 0-137.3 1056 1233 24.99% 15.83% 59.18%-0.70 -16.9 32
1999-11-03 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC W 1-037.3 1233 1056 59.18% 15.83% 24.99%+0.70 +16.9 59
1999-11-03 Yerevan L 2-449.7 1103 1113 46.96% 15.94% 37.09%+0.16 -42.7 27
1999-11-03 @ Kilikia W 4-249.7 1113 1103 37.09% 15.94% 46.96%-0.16 +42.7 44
1999-11-03 Dvin Artashat W 11-123.9 1422 661 87.23% 12.04% 0.73%+4.17 +3.6 59
1999-11-03 @ Shirak L 1-1123.9 661 1422 0.73% 12.04% 87.23%-4.17 -3.6 8
1999-11-03 Gyumri W 2-027.5 1157 544 85.18% 13.18% 1.64%+3.40 +2.2 38
1999-11-03 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 0-227.5 544 1157 1.64% 13.18% 85.18%-3.40 -2.2 4
1999-11-07 Kilikia FL50.0 658 1060 8.28% 15.06% 76.67%-1.88 +0.0 8
1999-11-07 @ Dvin Artashat FW50.0 1060 658 76.67% 15.06% 8.28%+1.88 +0.0 30
1999-11-07 Ararat L 1-233.1 542 1250 1.59% 13.14% 85.27%-3.47 -1.1 4
1999-11-07 @ Gyumri W 2-133.1 1250 542 85.27% 13.14% 1.59%+3.47 +1.1 62
1999-11-07 Araks Ararat L 1-238.7 1156 1447 14.58% 15.52% 69.90%-1.30 -9.7 44
1999-11-07 @ Yerevan W 2-138.7 1447 1156 69.90% 15.52% 14.58%+1.30 +9.7 56
1999-11-07 Shirak D 1-156.0 1159 1426 16.49% 15.60% 67.91%-1.17 +7.7 39
1999-11-07 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC D 1-156.0 1426 1159 67.91% 15.60% 16.49%+1.17 -7.7 60
1999-11-13 Gyumri FL49.8 658 541 62.38% 15.76% 21.86%+0.82 +0.0 8
1999-11-13 @ Dvin Artashat FW49.8 541 658 21.86% 15.76% 62.38%-0.82 +0.0 7
1999-11-13 Yerevan FW50.0 1251 1146 61.11% 15.79% 23.10%+0.76 +0.0 65
1999-11-13 @ Ararat FL50.0 1146 1251 23.10% 15.79% 61.11%-0.76 +0.0 44
1999-11-13 Araks Ararat D 1-155.8 1060 1457 8.55% 15.09% 76.36%-1.85 +10.5 31
1999-11-13 @ Kilikia D 1-155.8 1457 1060 76.36% 15.09% 8.55%+1.85 -10.5 57
1999-11-13 Erebuni-Homenman FC W 6-025.4 1418 1039 79.42% 14.72% 5.86%+2.18 +22.4 63
1999-11-13 @ Shirak L 0-625.4 1039 1418 5.86% 14.72% 79.42%-2.18 -22.4 32
1999-11-17 Kilikia L 0-228.7 541 1071 4.19% 14.35% 81.45%-2.55 -5.8 7
1999-11-17 @ Gyumri W 2-028.7 1071 541 81.45% 14.35% 4.19%+2.55 +5.8 34
1999-11-17 Shirak W 1-049.6 1251 1440 23.62% 15.80% 60.58%-0.77 +37.0 68
1999-11-17 @ Ararat L 0-149.6 1440 1251 60.58% 15.80% 23.62%+0.77 -37.0 63
1999-11-17 Araks Ararat L 1-728.4 1017 1446 7.19% 14.92% 77.88%-2.02 -22.6 32
1999-11-17 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC W 7-128.4 1446 1017 77.88% 14.92% 7.19%+2.02 +22.6 60
1999-11-17 Zvartnots-AAC FC L 2-351.2 1146 1167 45.36% 15.95% 38.70%+0.10 -25.4 44
1999-11-17 @ Yerevan W 3-251.2 1167 1146 38.70% 15.95% 45.36%-0.10 +25.4 42
1999-11-21 Gyumri FW51.2 1403 535 88.44% 11.15% 0.40%+4.73 +0.0 66
1999-11-21 @ Shirak FL51.2 535 1403 0.40% 11.15% 88.44%-4.73 +0.0 7
1999-11-21 Kilikia W 2-042.1 994 1077 36.71% 15.94% 47.35%-0.21 +55.5 35
1999-11-21 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-242.1 1077 994 47.35% 15.94% 36.71%+0.21 -55.5 34
1999-11-21 Araks Ararat L 1-338.0 1192 1469 15.70% 15.57% 68.73%-1.22 -18.1 42
1999-11-21 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC W 3-138.0 1469 1192 68.73% 15.57% 15.70%+1.22 +18.1 63
1999-11-26 Dvin Artashat FW50.4 1174 658 83.34% 13.87% 2.79%+2.90 +0.0 45
1999-11-26 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC FL50.4 658 1174 2.79% 13.87% 83.34%-2.90 +0.0 8
1999-11-26 Ararat D 0-055.0 1487 1288 69.66% 15.53% 14.82%+1.25 -9.3 64
1999-11-26 @ Araks Ararat D 0-055.0 1288 1487 14.82% 15.53% 69.66%-1.25 +9.3 69
1999-11-26 Gyumri W 3-026.4 1050 535 83.31% 13.88% 2.81%+2.89 +5.6 38
1999-11-26 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-326.4 535 1050 2.81% 13.88% 83.31%-2.89 -5.6 7
1999-11-26 Yerevan W 5-027.3 1403 1120 75.10% 15.20% 9.70%+1.69 +30.9 69
1999-11-26 @ Shirak L 0-527.3 1120 1403 9.70% 15.20% 75.10%-1.69 -30.9 44
1999-11-30 Araks Ararat FL50.9 658 1478 0.86% 12.28% 86.86%-4.05 +0.0 8
1999-11-30 @ Dvin Artashat FW50.9 1478 658 86.86% 12.28% 0.86%+4.05 +0.0 67
1999-11-30 Yerevan L 0-142.8 1055 1090 43.53% 15.95% 40.52%+0.04 -27.4 38
1999-11-30 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC W 1-042.8 1090 1055 40.52% 15.95% 43.53%-0.04 +27.4 47
1999-11-30 Shirak L 0-328.6 1021 1434 7.84% 15.01% 77.15%-1.93 -15.6 34
1999-11-30 @ Kilikia W 3-028.6 1434 1021 77.15% 15.01% 7.84%+1.93 +15.6 72
1999-11-30 Ararat W 2-149.6 1174 1297 31.36% 15.91% 52.74%-0.43 +30.6 48
1999-11-30 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 1-249.6 1297 1174 52.74% 15.91% 31.36%+0.43 -30.6 69
1999-12-04 Erebuni-Homenman FC FL50.0 658 1028 9.79% 15.21% 75.00%-1.71 +0.0 8
1999-12-04 @ Dvin Artashat FW50.0 1028 658 75.00% 15.21% 9.79%+1.71 +0.0 41
1999-12-04 Yerevan D 2-259.6 529 1117 3.08% 13.99% 82.94%-2.84 +9.4 8
1999-12-04 @ Gyumri D 2-259.6 1117 529 82.94% 13.99% 3.08%+2.84 -9.4 48
1999-12-04 Shirak D 0-059.1 1478 1450 52.00% 15.91% 32.08%+0.36 -3.2 68
1999-12-04 @ Araks Ararat D 0-059.1 1450 1478 32.08% 15.91% 52.00%-0.36 +3.2 73
1999-12-04 Zvartnots-AAC FC L 1-240.2 1006 1205 22.60% 15.78% 61.62%-0.82 -14.6 34
1999-12-04 @ Kilikia W 2-140.2 1205 1006 61.62% 15.78% 22.60%+0.82 +14.6 51
1999-12-08 Dvin Artashat FW50.3 1108 658 81.69% 14.30% 4.00%+2.55 +0.0 51
1999-12-08 @ Yerevan FL50.3 658 1108 4.00% 14.30% 81.69%-2.55 +0.0 8
1999-12-08 Araks Ararat L 0-324.9 539 1475 0.46% 11.34% 88.21%-4.66 -0.9 8
1999-12-08 @ Gyumri W 3-024.9 1475 539 88.21% 11.34% 0.46%+4.66 +0.9 71
1999-12-08 Zvartnots-AAC FC L 0-136.7 1028 1220 23.41% 15.80% 60.79%-0.78 -16.0 41
1999-12-08 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC W 1-036.7 1220 1028 60.79% 15.80% 23.41%+0.78 +16.0 54
1999-12-08 Ararat L 1-434.9 991 1267 15.77% 15.57% 68.66%-1.22 -25.7 34
1999-12-08 @ Kilikia W 4-134.9 1267 991 68.66% 15.57% 15.77%+1.22 +25.7 72

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1999-10-21 2.27% @ Gyumri 497 2 Yerevan 1140 1
2 1999-05-16 8.25% @ Kilikia 923 2 Yerevan 1326 1
3 1999-09-22 10.21% @ Kilikia 1085 1 Araks Ararat 1447 0
4 1999-05-16 10.28% @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 952 1 Araks Ararat 1313 0
5 1999-04-07 11.66% Erebuni-Homenman FC 1083 2 @ Araks Ararat 1329 1
6 1999-10-02 16.20% @ Yerevan 1101 2 Shirak 1371 1
7 1999-04-07 18.35% Ararat 1199 2 @ Shirak 1354 1
8 1999-09-26 20.80% @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 1022 4 Yerevan 1240 0
9 1999-11-17 23.62% @ Ararat 1251 1 Shirak 1440 0
10 1999-05-06 29.44% Araks Ararat 1279 1 @ Shirak 1328 0
11 1999-09-22 30.08% @ Yerevan 1207 1 Ararat 1340 0
12 1999-11-30 31.36% @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 1174 2 Ararat 1297 1
13 1999-05-16 33.92% Araks Ararat 1268 2 @ Yerevan 1282 0
14 1999-05-06 35.02% @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 915 1 Kilikia 1010 0
15 1999-10-21 35.71% @ Araks Ararat 1389 2 Shirak 1479 0
16 1999-11-21 36.71% @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 994 2 Kilikia 1077 0
17 1999-11-03 37.09% Yerevan 1113 4 @ Kilikia 1103 2
18 1999-08-29 37.50% @ Kilikia 1024 2 Erebuni-Homenman FC 1101 0
19 1999-11-17 38.70% Zvartnots-AAC FC 1167 3 @ Yerevan 1146 2
20 1999-10-17 38.97% @ Shirak 1348 1 Araks Ararat 1414 0
21 1999-03-07 39.97% Erebuni-Homenman FC 1098 2 @ Kilikia 1068 0
22 1999-11-30 40.52% Yerevan 1090 1 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 1055 0
23 1999-10-21 41.13% Shirak 1376 4 @ Ararat 1337 0
24 1999-04-16 41.27% @ Ararat 1237 1 Araks Ararat 1287 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1999-09-26 138.76 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 4 1022 20.80% Yerevan 0 1240 63.47% 15.74%
2 1999-10-21 96.76 Shirak 4 1376 41.13% @ Ararat 0 1337 42.92% 15.95%
3 1999-05-16 70.08 @ Kilikia 7 967 60.37% Dvin Artashat 1 869 23.83% 15.80%
4 1999-05-16 58.45 Araks Ararat 2 1268 33.92% @ Yerevan 0 1282 50.16% 15.93%
5 1999-10-21 56.56 @ Araks Ararat 2 1389 35.71% Shirak 0 1479 48.35% 15.94%
6 1999-11-21 55.51 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 2 994 36.71% Kilikia 0 1077 47.35% 15.94%
7 1999-08-29 54.70 @ Kilikia 2 1024 37.50% Erebuni-Homenman FC 0 1101 46.56% 15.94%
8 1999-03-07 52.17 Erebuni-Homenman FC 2 1098 39.97% @ Kilikia 0 1068 44.08% 15.95%
9 1999-05-16 51.11 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 5 1151 67.91% Kilikia 0 974 16.49% 15.60%
10 1999-10-21 48.55 @ Gyumri 2 497 2.27% Yerevan 1 1140 84.12% 13.61%
11 1999-09-22 45.78 @ Kilikia 1 1085 10.21% Araks Ararat 0 1447 74.55% 15.24%
12 1999-03-21 45.73 Shirak 3 1308 59.57% @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 0 1128 24.61% 15.82%
13 1999-05-16 45.73 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 1 952 10.28% Araks Ararat 0 1313 74.47% 15.25%
14 1999-05-16 44.46 @ Kilikia 2 923 8.25% Yerevan 1 1326 76.70% 15.05%
15 1999-05-16 43.81 Araks Ararat 3 1337 60.74% @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 0 1146 23.46% 15.80%
16 1999-07-18 43.11 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 6 979 67.56% Dvin Artashat 1 806 16.83% 15.61%
17 1999-05-16 43.05 Ararat 2 1296 48.91% @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 0 1202 35.16% 15.93%
18 1999-11-03 42.69 Yerevan 4 1113 37.09% @ Kilikia 2 1103 46.96% 15.94%
19 1999-04-07 42.21 Erebuni-Homenman FC 2 1083 11.66% @ Araks Ararat 1 1329 72.99% 15.35%
20 1999-08-04 41.51 @ Araks Ararat 2 1383 50.38% Ararat 0 1367 33.70% 15.93%
21 1999-10-02 39.35 @ Yerevan 2 1101 16.20% Shirak 1 1371 68.22% 15.59%
22 1999-04-07 38.04 Ararat 2 1199 18.35% @ Shirak 1 1354 65.99% 15.67%
23 1999-11-17 37.04 @ Ararat 1 1251 23.62% Shirak 0 1440 60.58% 15.80%
24 1999-03-07 34.79 Ararat 2 1132 56.61% @ Dvin Artashat 0 978 27.53% 15.86%
25 1999-05-06 33.56 Araks Ararat 1 1279 29.44% @ Shirak 0 1328 54.68% 15.89%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1999-12-04 59.6 @ Gyumri 2 529 3.08% Yerevan 2 1117 82.94% 13.99%
2 1999-12-04 59.1 @ Araks Ararat 0 1478 52.00% Shirak 0 1450 32.08% 15.91%
3 1999-10-21 58.0 @ Gyumri 2 497 2.27% Yerevan 1 1140 84.12% 13.61%
4 1999-10-02 57.2 @ Ararat 1 1311 34.25% Araks Ararat 1 1412 49.82% 15.93%
5 1999-09-26 56.7 @ Shirak 1 1376 57.07% Ararat 1 1307 27.07% 15.86%
6 1999-05-16 56.3 @ Kilikia 2 923 8.25% Yerevan 1 1326 76.70% 15.05%
7 1999-03-17 56.1 @ Araks Ararat 1 1323 51.45% Yerevan 1 1299 32.63% 15.92%
8 1999-04-16 56.1 @ Yerevan 1 1303 46.45% Shirak 1 1316 37.60% 15.94%
9 1999-11-07 56.0 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 1 1159 16.49% Shirak 1 1426 67.91% 15.60%
10 1999-11-13 55.8 @ Kilikia 1 1060 8.55% Araks Ararat 1 1457 76.36% 15.09%
11 1999-04-07 55.4 Erebuni-Homenman FC 2 1083 11.66% @ Araks Ararat 1 1329 72.99% 15.35%
12 1999-08-25 55.3 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 1 1028 14.13% Ararat 1 1326 70.37% 15.49%
13 1999-09-22 55.1 @ Gyumri 1 518 22.67% Dvin Artashat 1 717 61.55% 15.78%
14 1999-03-17 55.0 @ Kilikia 1 1005 57.74% Dvin Artashat 1 930 26.41% 15.85%
15 1999-11-26 55.0 @ Araks Ararat 0 1487 69.66% Ararat 0 1288 14.82% 15.53%
16 1999-10-02 54.2 @ Yerevan 2 1101 16.20% Shirak 1 1371 68.22% 15.59%
17 1999-04-07 53.9 Ararat 2 1199 18.35% @ Shirak 1 1354 65.99% 15.67%
18 1999-09-22 52.4 @ Kilikia 1 1085 10.21% Araks Ararat 0 1447 74.55% 15.24%
19 1999-03-21 52.3 @ Yerevan 0 1302 61.54% Ararat 0 1193 22.68% 15.78%
20 1999-04-26 52.1 @ Yerevan 0 1302 67.47% Erebuni-Homenman FC 0 1130 16.91% 15.62%
21 1999-10-25 52.0 @ Ararat 0 1241 65.08% Kilikia 0 1096 19.22% 15.69%
22 1999-05-16 51.9 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 1 952 10.28% Araks Ararat 0 1313 74.47% 15.25%
23 1999-10-24 51.9 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 0 1164 62.03% Erebuni-Homenman FC 0 1050 22.20% 15.77%
24 1999-05-16 51.8 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 0 946 21.32% Erebuni-Homenman FC 0 1158 62.93% 15.75%
25 1999-07-30 51.8 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 0 1106 58.81% Zvartnots-AAC FC 0 1022 25.36% 15.83%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1999-10-24 22.4 @ Araks Ararat 8 1446 88.77% Gyumri 0 545 0.34% 10.89%
2 1999-05-06 22.8 @ Yerevan 6 1293 86.92% Gyumri 0 558 0.84% 12.24%
3 1999-05-16 22.9 Ararat 7 1339 86.48% @ Gyumri 0 548 1.01% 12.51%
4 1999-10-13 22.9 @ Araks Ararat 7 1409 86.54% Dvin Artashat 0 704 0.99% 12.47%
5 1999-05-16 23.1 @ Shirak 5 1294 86.99% Gyumri 0 554 0.82% 12.19%
6 1999-03-07 23.7 Shirak 6 1282 84.06% @ Gyumri 0 642 2.31% 13.63%
7 1999-09-26 23.7 @ Kilikia 5 1131 85.07% Gyumri 0 524 1.70% 13.23%
8 1999-11-03 23.9 @ Shirak 11 1422 87.23% Dvin Artashat 1 661 0.73% 12.04%
9 1999-10-02 24.8 Erebuni-Homenman FC 6 1014 80.38% @ Gyumri 0 519 5.06% 14.56%
10 1999-12-08 24.9 Araks Ararat 3 1475 88.21% @ Gyumri 0 539 0.46% 11.34%
11 1999-09-12 25.1 Shirak 4 1347 83.12% @ Dvin Artashat 0 751 2.94% 13.93%
12 1999-04-07 25.2 @ Kilikia 9 991 80.15% Gyumri 0 592 5.25% 14.60%
13 1999-11-13 25.4 @ Shirak 6 1418 79.42% Erebuni-Homenman FC 0 1039 5.86% 14.72%
14 1999-10-21 25.9 Araks Ararat 3 1385 84.90% @ Dvin Artashat 0 700 1.80% 13.30%
15 1999-03-17 26.0 @ Ararat 3 1189 84.46% Gyumri 0 617 2.06% 13.48%
16 1999-07-18 26.0 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 3 1102 84.48% Gyumri 0 529 2.04% 13.47%
17 1999-07-30 26.2 Araks Ararat 6 1381 87.30% @ Gyumri 1 525 0.71% 11.99%
18 1999-09-16 26.2 @ Kilikia 5 1059 76.80% Dvin Artashat 0 743 8.16% 15.04%
19 1999-11-26 26.4 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 3 1050 83.31% Gyumri 0 535 2.81% 13.88%
20 1999-05-16 26.7 Yerevan 5 1296 75.47% @ Dvin Artashat 0 917 9.36% 15.17%
21 1999-08-29 26.7 Ararat 3 1317 82.24% @ Dvin Artashat 0 758 3.59% 14.17%
22 1999-11-26 27.3 @ Shirak 5 1403 75.10% Yerevan 0 1120 9.70% 15.20%
23 1999-05-16 27.4 @ Ararat 3 1285 80.10% Dvin Artashat 0 887 5.29% 14.61%
24 1999-09-16 27.4 @ Ararat 5 1339 87.91% Gyumri 1 519 0.53% 11.56%
25 1999-11-03 27.5 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 2 1157 85.18% Gyumri 0 544 1.64% 13.18%