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2000 Armenian Premier League Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Araks Ararat

61 points · 2nd Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ararat

9.50 points above expected

59 points · 49.50 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lernagorts Kapan

10.98 points below expected

12 points · 22.98 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Araks Ararat Champion 28 19 4 5 61 59 33 +26 55.48 +5.52
2 Ararat 28 18 5 5 59 44 23 +21 49.50 +9.50
3 Shirak 28 17 7 4 58 58 21 +37 64.59 -6.59
4 Mika 28 15 4 9 49 42 25 +17 41.28 +7.72
5 Zvartnots-AAC FC 28 11 8 9 41 44 32 +12 43.56 -2.56
6 Kilikia 28 9 3 16 30 49 53 -4 23.83 +6.17
7 Lernagorts Kapan 28 3 3 22 12 26 82 -56 22.98 -10.98
8 Dinamo Yerevan 28 1 4 23 7 19 72 -53 16.28 -9.28

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ararat 59 49.50 +9.50
2 Mika 49 41.28 +7.72
3 Kilikia 30 23.83 +6.17
4 Araks Ararat 61 55.48 +5.52
5 Zvartnots-AAC FC 41 43.56 -2.56

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lernagorts Kapan 12 22.98 -10.98
2 Dinamo Yerevan 7 16.28 -9.28
3 Shirak 58 64.59 -6.59
4 Zvartnots-AAC FC 41 43.56 -2.56
5 Araks Ararat 61 55.48 +5.52

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Mika 5 Jun 8 – Jun 29 1 in 40
2 Araks Ararat 6 Jul 23 – Sep 12 1 in 27
3 Kilikia 3 Oct 29 – Nov 11 1 in 9
4 Ararat 3 May 9 – May 23 1 in 7
5 Shirak 4 May 18 – Jun 8 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lernagorts Kapan 11 Apr 14 – Jul 5 1 in 576
2 Zvartnots-AAC FC 4 Oct 29 – Nov 16 1 in 96
3 Shirak 1 Jun 17 – Jun 17 1 in 13
4 Mika 3 Nov 4 – Nov 16 1 in 12
5 Araks Ararat 2 Jun 8 – Jun 13 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ararat 13 Jun 8 – Sep 21 1 in 149
2 Zvartnots-AAC FC 9 May 18 – Jul 5 1 in 63
3 Araks Ararat 8 Sep 21 – Nov 16 1 in 12
4 Dinamo Yerevan 2 Sep 30 – Oct 15 1 in 8
5 Lernagorts Kapan 2 Sep 12 – Sep 16 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lernagorts Kapan 16 Apr 14 – Sep 7 1 in 52
2 Shirak 2 Apr 30 – May 9 1 in 20
3 Dinamo Yerevan 20 Jun 8 – Nov 16 1 in 16
4 Araks Ararat 5 Jun 8 – Jul 15 1 in 13
5 Zvartnots-AAC FC 4 Oct 29 – Nov 16 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Araks Ararat 1291 55 +71 13 8.8 +4.2
Ararat 1257 53 -40 7 8.9 -1.9
Shirak 1327 52 -10 10 10.2 -0.2
Mika 1153 46 -43 7 9.9 -2.9
Zvartnots-AAC FC 1161 41 -31 7 9.4 -2.4
Kilikia 1015 30 +69 9 6.4 +2.6
Lernagorts Kapan 761 9 -26 1 2.9 -1.9
Dinamo Yerevan 644 7 -52 2 2.9 -0.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AA ARA DY KIL LK MIK SHI ZVA
Araks Ararat —
1-1-2
5.92
4-0-0
10.10
4-0-0
9.38
4-0-0
9.80
1-2-1
7.63
2-0-2
3.80
3-1-0
6.32
Ararat
2-1-1
5.31
—
4-0-0
9.79
3-0-1
9.16
4-0-0
8.93
4-0-0
6.54
0-2-2
3.12
1-2-1
6.22
Dinamo Yerevan
0-0-4
1.26
0-0-4
1.54
—
0-0-4
3.93
1-2-1
4.65
0-0-4
2.63
0-1-3
0.94
0-1-3
2.09
Kilikia
0-0-4
1.91
1-0-3
2.12
4-0-0
7.31
—
3-0-1
6.56
1-0-3
2.94
0-1-3
1.35
0-2-2
2.38
Lernagorts Kapan
0-0-4
1.52
0-0-4
2.36
1-2-1
6.58
1-0-3
4.69
—
0-1-3
2.07
0-0-4
1.80
1-0-3
1.70
Mika
1-2-1
3.62
0-0-4
4.69
4-0-0
8.66
3-0-1
8.32
3-1-0
9.21
—
1-1-2
2.78
3-0-1
4.44
Shirak
2-0-2
7.44
2-2-0
8.13
3-1-0
10.47
3-1-0
9.98
4-0-0
9.53
2-1-1
8.48
—
1-2-1
8.32
Zvartnots-AAC FC
0-1-3
4.91
1-2-1
5.01
3-1-0
9.20
2-2-0
8.88
3-0-1
9.60
1-0-3
6.79
1-2-1
2.94
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +13.2
Allowed 0.89 -8.5
Differential 0.93 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.36%7.14%5.36%1.79%1.34%2.23%23.21%
17.14%6.25%6.70%4.91%1.79%2.23%29.02%
25.36%6.70%3.57%1.79%1.79%—19.20%
31.79%4.91%1.79%1.79%—0.89%11.16%
41.34%1.79%1.79%———4.91%
5+2.23%2.23%—0.89%—7.14%12.50%
Total23.21%29.02%19.20%11.16%4.91%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.45 +0.00
SD 1.72 1.72 2.39
CV 1.19 1.19 —
Max 13 13 +12
Min -1 -1 -12

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%10.71%——3.57%21.43%
17.14%—————7.14%
27.14%10.71%7.14%———25.00%
33.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
43.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
5+7.14%——3.57%—7.14%17.86%
Total32.14%25.00%25.00%7.14%—10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.04 1.11 +0.93
SD 1.88 1.45 2.36
CV 0.92 1.31 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%——3.57%—17.86%
114.29%7.14%3.57%3.57%——28.57%
214.29%17.86%————32.14%
3———3.57%——3.57%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+3.57%3.57%———7.14%14.29%
Total39.29%39.29%3.57%7.14%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.75 +0.75
SD 1.60 1.14 1.84
CV 1.07 1.52 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%21.43%3.57%3.57%—10.71%42.86%
1—10.71%3.57%7.14%7.14%10.71%39.29%
2————7.14%—7.14%
3———————
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+—————7.14%7.14%
Total3.57%32.14%10.71%10.71%14.29%28.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 2.50 -1.89
SD 0.99 2.03 1.93
CV 1.64 0.81 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%3.57%7.14%——17.86%
13.57%3.57%17.86%10.71%——35.71%
2——3.57%3.57%——7.14%
3—10.71%7.14%3.57%—3.57%25.00%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+3.57%3.57%———3.57%10.71%
Total7.14%25.00%35.71%25.00%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.86 -0.14
SD 1.56 1.21 1.98
CV 0.91 0.65 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%10.71%3.57%7.14%3.57%32.14%
13.57%3.57%14.29%14.29%3.57%7.14%46.43%
2——3.57%3.57%3.57%—10.71%
3—————3.57%3.57%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+—————3.57%3.57%
Total7.14%7.14%32.14%21.43%14.29%17.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 2.89 -2.00
SD 1.03 2.48 2.51
CV 1.15 0.86 —
Max 4 13 +2
Min -1 -1 -12

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
114.29%—7.14%———21.43%
210.71%7.14%7.14%3.57%——28.57%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+—3.57%—3.57%—10.71%17.86%
Total35.71%25.00%21.43%7.14%—10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.79 +0.61
SD 1.62 1.13 1.52
CV 1.16 1.44 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%————17.86%
110.71%10.71%3.57%3.57%——28.57%
23.57%14.29%3.57%———21.43%
33.57%—3.57%———7.14%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+3.57%7.14%———7.14%17.86%
Total35.71%42.86%10.71%3.57%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.68 +1.32
SD 2.74 0.90 2.72
CV 1.37 1.33 —
Max 13 3 +12
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
13.57%14.29%3.57%—3.57%—25.00%
27.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%—21.43%
33.57%17.86%—3.57%——25.00%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+—————10.71%10.71%
Total25.00%35.71%14.29%7.14%7.14%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.04 +0.43
SD 1.40 1.35 1.64
CV 0.96 1.30 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shirak 1327 58 64.59 -6.59 16.0% 50 55 60 65 68 73 76
Araks Ararat 1291 61 55.48 +5.52 83.0% 39 47 51 56 60 64 68
Ararat 1257 59 49.50 +9.50 93.0% 33 37 45 50 54 60 68
Zvartnots-AAC FC 1161 41 43.56 -2.56 37.0% 28 34 40 44 47 53 56
Mika 1153 49 41.28 +7.72 93.0% 28 32 37 41 45 50 55
Kilikia 1015 30 23.83 +6.17 87.0% 12 16 20 23 28 32 37
Lernagorts Kapan 761 12 22.98 -10.98 1.0% 10 15 19 23 26 32 40
Dinamo Yerevan 644 7 16.28 -9.28 4.0% 2 8 13 17 19 24 27

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.96%
Strong Edge
50.00%16.96%33.04%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 65.92 Elo pts.
263 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.42 goals
Neutral
-2+0.25+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.4
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
13%
Araks Ararat, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.07/gm
Tight Race
00.310.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.53 * Some Luck: 4.53 to 6.79 * Lucky: 6.79 to 9.06 * Wild Swing: 9.06 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.42 * Close: 0.42 to 0.63 * Off: 0.63 to 0.83 * Way Off: 0.83 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.71 points
Lucky
05.6614
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Off
00.521.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
93.00%
Ararat
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
Lernagorts Kapan
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Top-Heavy
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 252.14
2.92
Wide Separation
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
86%
Clear Edge
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Some Drama
0%47%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Occasional
0%30%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.46
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.95
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.60
Some Carryover
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.81
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.09
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.096
Well Within Noise
00.1400.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Araks Ararat13.00%56.00%25.00%4.00%2.00%———
Ararat4.00%25.00%41.00%18.00%12.00%———
Shirak82.00%15.00%3.00%—————
Mika—1.00%10.00%39.00%49.00%1.00%——
Zvartnots-AAC FC1.00%3.00%21.00%39.00%35.00%—1.00%—
Kilikia————1.00%49.00%39.00%11.00%
Lernagorts Kapan————1.00%41.00%33.00%25.00%
Dinamo Yerevan—————9.00%27.00%64.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Araks Ararat 100% —
Ararat 100% —
Mika 100% —
Shirak 100% —
Zvartnots-AAC FC 100% —
Kilikia 89.00% 11.00%
Lernagorts Kapan 75.00% 25.00%
Dinamo Yerevan 36.00% 64.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2000-03-25 Mika W 2-028.8 1246 961 74.55% 17.59% 7.87%+1.34 +9.9 3
2000-03-25 @ Araks Ararat L 0-228.8 961 1246 7.87% 17.59% 74.55%-1.34 -9.9 0
2000-03-25 Kilikia W 2-136.2 1105 874 71.57% 18.06% 10.37%+1.13 +6.5 3
2000-03-25 @ Ararat L 1-236.2 874 1105 10.37% 18.06% 71.57%-1.13 -6.5 0
2000-03-25 Lernagorts Kapan W 13-133.5 1223 1179 55.46% 19.18% 25.36%+0.42 +129.6 3
2000-03-25 @ Shirak L 1-1333.5 1179 1223 25.36% 19.18% 55.46%-0.42 -129.6 0
2000-03-25 Dinamo Yerevan W 2-032.8 1060 961 61.28% 18.95% 19.78%+0.63 +23.6 3
2000-03-25 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 0-232.8 961 1060 19.78% 18.95% 61.28%-0.63 -23.6 0
2000-04-04 Araks Ararat L 1-334.0 867 1256 9.58% 17.93% 72.48%-1.23 -10.4 0
2000-04-04 @ Kilikia W 3-134.0 1256 867 72.48% 17.93% 9.58%+1.23 +10.4 6
2000-04-04 Dinamo Yerevan W 4-240.9 1049 938 62.47% 18.88% 18.65%+0.68 +17.3 3
2000-04-04 @ Lernagorts Kapan L 2-440.9 938 1049 18.65% 18.88% 62.47%-0.68 -17.3 0
2000-04-04 Zvartnots-AAC FC W 4-144.1 951 1084 31.89% 19.32% 48.79%-0.25 +62.2 3
2000-04-04 @ Mika L 1-444.1 1084 951 48.79% 19.32% 31.89%+0.25 -62.2 3
2000-04-04 Ararat W 1-032.2 1353 1111 72.22% 17.97% 9.80%+1.17 +6.5 6
2000-04-04 @ Shirak L 0-132.2 1111 1353 9.80% 17.97% 72.22%-1.17 -6.5 3
2000-04-14 Shirak L 0-239.2 1266 1359 37.20% 19.37% 43.43%-0.10 -40.5 6
2000-04-14 @ Araks Ararat W 2-039.2 1359 1266 43.43% 19.37% 37.20%+0.10 +40.5 9
2000-04-14 Lernagorts Kapan W 5-031.4 1105 1067 54.72% 19.20% 26.08%+0.40 +70.3 6
2000-04-14 @ Ararat L 0-531.4 1067 1105 26.08% 19.20% 54.72%-0.40 -70.3 3
2000-04-14 Mika L 0-140.5 920 1014 37.18% 19.37% 43.45%-0.10 -21.5 0
2000-04-14 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 1-040.5 1014 920 43.45% 19.37% 37.18%+0.10 +21.5 6
2000-04-14 Kilikia W 3-135.6 1022 857 67.02% 18.56% 14.42%+0.88 +15.3 6
2000-04-14 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 1-335.6 857 1022 14.42% 18.56% 67.02%-0.88 -15.3 0
2000-04-30 Lernagorts Kapan W 4-026.7 1226 996 71.49% 18.07% 10.43%+1.13 +24.7 9
2000-04-30 @ Araks Ararat L 0-426.7 996 1226 10.43% 18.07% 71.49%-1.13 -24.7 3
2000-04-30 Shirak D 1-154.3 899 1400 5.36% 16.84% 77.80%-1.66 +10.0 1
2000-04-30 @ Dinamo Yerevan D 1-154.3 1400 899 77.80% 16.84% 5.36%+1.66 -10.0 10
2000-04-30 Kilikia W 2-030.4 1035 842 69.13% 18.36% 12.52%+0.99 +15.5 9
2000-04-30 @ Mika L 0-230.4 842 1035 12.52% 18.36% 69.13%-0.99 -15.5 0
2000-04-30 Ararat W 4-038.8 1037 1175 31.22% 19.31% 49.47%-0.27 +97.5 9
2000-04-30 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 0-438.8 1175 1037 49.47% 19.31% 31.22%+0.27 -97.5 6
2000-05-09 Zvartnots-AAC FC W 2-032.5 1250 1135 62.87% 18.86% 18.27%+0.69 +22.0 12
2000-05-09 @ Araks Ararat L 0-232.5 1135 1250 18.27% 18.86% 62.87%-0.69 -22.0 9
2000-05-09 Dinamo Yerevan W 1-033.3 1077 909 67.31% 18.53% 14.16%+0.89 +9.2 9
2000-05-09 @ Ararat L 0-133.3 909 1077 14.16% 18.53% 67.31%-0.89 -9.2 1
2000-05-09 Kilikia L 1-350.9 972 826 65.46% 18.69% 15.86%+0.80 -58.1 3
2000-05-09 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 3-150.9 826 972 15.86% 18.69% 65.46%-0.80 +58.1 3
2000-05-09 Mika D 0-050.9 1390 1050 77.03% 17.04% 5.93%+1.54 -11.0 11
2000-05-09 @ Shirak D 0-050.9 1050 1390 5.93% 17.04% 77.03%-1.54 +11.0 10
2000-05-18 Shirak FL48.7 884 1379 5.54% 16.91% 77.55%-1.63 +0.0 3
2000-05-18 @ Kilikia FW48.7 1379 884 77.55% 16.91% 5.54%+1.63 +0.0 14
2000-05-18 Araks Ararat L 0-626.6 900 1272 10.38% 18.07% 71.55%-1.17 -36.0 1
2000-05-18 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 6-026.6 1272 900 71.55% 18.07% 10.38%+1.17 +36.0 15
2000-05-18 Ararat L 0-143.3 1061 1087 46.74% 19.34% 33.91%+0.16 -25.9 10
2000-05-18 @ Mika W 1-043.3 1087 1061 33.91% 19.34% 46.74%-0.16 +25.9 12
2000-05-18 Lernagorts Kapan W 3-134.9 1113 913 69.53% 18.31% 12.15%+1.01 +13.0 12
2000-05-18 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 1-334.9 913 1113 12.15% 18.31% 69.53%-1.01 -13.0 3
2000-05-23 Zvartnots-AAC FC L 1-336.7 864 1126 17.94% 18.84% 63.22%-0.75 -18.7 1
2000-05-23 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 3-136.7 1126 864 63.22% 18.84% 17.94%+0.75 +18.7 15
2000-05-23 Ararat L 1-239.7 884 1112 21.03% 19.01% 59.96%-0.62 -12.5 3
2000-05-23 @ Kilikia W 2-139.7 1112 884 59.96% 19.01% 21.03%+0.62 +12.5 15
2000-05-23 Shirak L 0-425.1 900 1379 6.03% 17.08% 76.90%-1.57 -14.4 3
2000-05-23 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 4-025.1 1379 900 76.90% 17.08% 6.03%+1.57 +14.3 17
2000-05-23 Araks Ararat D 2-258.3 1036 1308 17.03% 18.77% 64.19%-0.79 +4.6 11
2000-05-23 @ Mika D 2-258.3 1308 1036 64.19% 18.77% 17.03%+0.79 -4.6 16
2000-05-31 Kilikia W 3-238.1 1304 872 80.34% 16.01% 3.65%+1.90 +2.1 19
2000-05-31 @ Araks Ararat L 2-338.1 872 1304 3.65% 16.01% 80.34%-1.90 -2.1 3
2000-05-31 Shirak L 0-134.9 1125 1393 17.41% 18.80% 63.78%-0.77 -11.2 15
2000-05-31 @ Ararat W 1-034.9 1393 1125 63.78% 18.80% 17.41%+0.77 +11.2 20
2000-05-31 Lernagorts Kapan W 4-246.3 845 886 44.56% 19.36% 36.07%+0.09 +30.6 4
2000-05-31 @ Dinamo Yerevan L 2-446.3 886 845 36.07% 19.36% 44.56%-0.09 -30.6 3
2000-05-31 Mika W 2-032.6 1144 1040 61.78% 18.92% 19.30%+0.65 +23.1 18
2000-05-31 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 0-232.6 1040 1144 19.30% 18.92% 61.78%-0.65 -23.1 11
2000-06-08 Zvartnots-AAC FC D 1-153.7 870 1167 15.09% 18.62% 66.28%-0.88 +6.8 4
2000-06-08 @ Kilikia D 1-153.7 1167 870 66.28% 18.62% 15.09%+0.88 -6.8 19
2000-06-08 Ararat L 1-238.8 855 1114 18.25% 18.86% 62.89%-0.73 -11.0 3
2000-06-08 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 2-138.8 1114 855 62.89% 18.86% 18.25%+0.73 +11.0 18
2000-06-08 Dinamo Yerevan W 5-132.5 1017 876 65.14% 18.71% 16.16%+0.79 +31.0 14
2000-06-08 @ Mika L 1-532.5 876 1017 16.16% 18.71% 65.14%-0.79 -31.0 4
2000-06-08 Araks Ararat W 6-031.7 1404 1306 61.22% 18.95% 19.83%+0.63 +65.7 23
2000-06-08 @ Shirak L 0-631.7 1306 1404 19.83% 18.95% 61.22%-0.63 -65.7 19
2000-06-13 Ararat L 0-245.8 1240 1125 62.83% 18.86% 18.31%+0.69 -64.4 19
2000-06-13 @ Araks Ararat W 2-045.8 1125 1240 18.31% 18.86% 62.83%-0.69 +64.4 21
2000-06-13 Kilikia L 2-449.2 845 877 45.81% 19.35% 34.84%+0.13 -37.2 4
2000-06-13 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 4-249.2 877 845 34.84% 19.35% 45.81%-0.13 +37.2 7
2000-06-13 Lernagorts Kapan W 2-030.2 1048 845 69.83% 18.28% 11.89%+1.03 +14.7 17
2000-06-13 @ Mika L 0-230.2 845 1048 11.89% 18.28% 69.83%-1.03 -14.7 3
2000-06-13 Shirak D 1-154.9 1161 1470 14.26% 18.54% 67.20%-0.93 +7.0 20
2000-06-13 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC D 1-154.9 1470 1161 67.20% 18.54% 14.26%+0.93 -7.0 24
2000-06-17 Dinamo Yerevan W 3-137.1 914 807 61.99% 18.91% 19.10%+0.66 +19.8 10
2000-06-17 @ Kilikia L 1-337.1 807 914 19.10% 18.91% 61.99%-0.66 -19.8 4
2000-06-17 Mika L 1-337.6 830 1063 20.55% 18.99% 60.46%-0.64 -21.1 3
2000-06-17 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 3-137.6 1063 830 60.46% 18.99% 20.55%+0.64 +21.1 20
2000-06-17 Zvartnots-AAC FC L 1-354.6 1463 1168 75.07% 17.48% 7.45%+1.38 -66.7 24
2000-06-17 @ Shirak W 3-154.6 1168 1463 7.45% 17.48% 75.07%-1.38 +66.7 23
2000-06-21 Zvartnots-AAC FC D 0-050.2 1189 1234 43.98% 19.37% 36.65%+0.08 -1.0 22
2000-06-21 @ Ararat D 0-050.2 1234 1189 36.65% 19.37% 43.98%-0.08 +1.0 24
2000-06-21 Mika L 0-333.9 934 1084 29.63% 19.28% 51.09%-0.32 -48.7 10
2000-06-21 @ Kilikia W 3-033.9 1084 934 51.09% 19.28% 29.63%+0.32 +48.7 23
2000-06-24 Dinamo Yerevan W 3-023.8 1396 788 84.78% 13.79% 1.43%+2.57 +2.5 27
2000-06-24 @ Shirak L 0-323.8 788 1396 1.43% 13.79% 84.78%-2.57 -2.5 4
2000-06-29 Ararat L 1-629.0 785 1188 8.89% 17.80% 73.31%-1.28 -21.6 4
2000-06-29 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 6-129.0 1188 785 73.31% 17.80% 8.89%+1.28 +21.6 25
2000-06-29 Lernagorts Kapan W 3-244.5 885 809 58.97% 19.05% 21.98%+0.54 +12.3 13
2000-06-29 @ Kilikia L 2-344.5 809 885 21.98% 19.05% 58.97%-0.54 -12.3 3
2000-06-29 Shirak W 1-048.8 1133 1399 17.60% 18.81% 63.59%-0.76 +34.6 26
2000-06-29 @ Mika L 0-148.8 1399 1133 63.59% 18.81% 17.60%+0.76 -34.6 27
2000-07-01 Araks Ararat D 2-258.3 1235 1176 57.18% 19.12% 23.70%+0.48 -3.2 25
2000-07-01 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC D 2-258.3 1176 1235 23.70% 19.12% 57.18%-0.48 +3.2 20
2000-07-05 Mika W 2-141.3 1210 1167 55.25% 19.18% 25.57%+0.41 +14.8 28
2000-07-05 @ Ararat L 1-241.3 1167 1210 25.57% 19.18% 55.25%-0.41 -14.8 26
2000-07-05 Zvartnots-AAC FC L 1-235.2 796 1232 7.51% 17.50% 74.99%-1.41 -4.7 3
2000-07-05 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 2-135.2 1232 796 74.99% 17.50% 7.51%+1.41 +4.7 28
2000-07-05 Kilikia W 2-133.4 1364 897 81.38% 15.59% 3.03%+2.03 +1.9 30
2000-07-05 @ Shirak L 1-233.4 897 1364 3.03% 15.59% 81.38%-2.03 -1.9 13
2000-07-09 Araks Ararat D 3-362.2 1224 1179 55.60% 19.17% 25.23%+0.42 -2.4 29
2000-07-09 @ Ararat D 3-362.2 1179 1224 25.23% 19.17% 55.60%-0.42 +2.4 21
2000-07-15 Mika L 0-145.5 1181 1152 53.64% 19.23% 27.13%+0.36 -29.3 21
2000-07-15 @ Araks Ararat W 1-045.5 1152 1181 27.13% 19.23% 53.64%-0.36 +29.3 29
2000-07-15 Kilikia W 1-030.6 1222 895 76.51% 17.17% 6.32%+1.50 +4.2 32
2000-07-15 @ Ararat L 0-130.6 895 1222 6.32% 17.17% 76.51%-1.50 -4.2 13
2000-07-23 Araks Ararat L 1-238.8 891 1152 18.03% 18.84% 63.13%-0.74 -10.9 13
2000-07-23 @ Kilikia W 2-138.8 1152 891 63.13% 18.84% 18.03%+0.74 +10.8 24
2000-07-23 Dinamo Yerevan D 0-049.9 792 763 53.55% 19.23% 27.22%+0.36 -3.7 4
2000-07-23 @ Lernagorts Kapan D 0-049.9 763 792 27.22% 19.23% 53.55%-0.36 +3.7 5
2000-07-23 Zvartnots-AAC FC W 2-145.2 1182 1237 42.59% 19.37% 38.04%+0.04 +20.6 32
2000-07-23 @ Mika L 1-245.2 1237 1182 38.04% 19.37% 42.59%-0.04 -20.6 28
2000-07-24 Ararat D 1-154.5 1366 1226 64.98% 18.72% 16.30%+0.78 -6.4 31
2000-07-24 @ Shirak D 1-154.5 1226 1366 16.30% 18.72% 64.98%-0.78 +6.4 33
2000-07-29 Shirak W 2-151.0 1163 1360 24.26% 19.14% 56.60%-0.50 +29.1 27
2000-07-29 @ Araks Ararat L 1-251.0 1360 1163 56.60% 19.14% 24.26%+0.50 -29.1 31
2000-07-29 Mika L 0-131.0 767 1202 7.54% 17.51% 74.96%-1.41 -5.0 5
2000-07-29 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 1-031.0 1202 767 74.96% 17.51% 7.54%+1.41 +5.0 35
2000-07-29 Kilikia D 3-362.7 1216 880 76.90% 17.07% 6.03%+1.53 -6.0 29
2000-07-29 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC D 3-362.7 880 1216 6.03% 17.07% 76.90%-1.53 +6.0 14
2000-07-30 Lernagorts Kapan W 2-133.5 1233 788 80.73% 15.86% 3.41%+1.95 +2.1 36
2000-07-30 @ Ararat L 1-233.5 788 1233 3.41% 15.86% 80.73%-1.95 -2.1 4
2000-08-04 Araks Ararat L 1-431.7 786 1192 8.76% 17.78% 73.47%-1.30 -13.4 4
2000-08-04 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 4-131.7 1192 786 73.47% 17.78% 8.76%+1.30 +13.4 30
2000-08-04 Dinamo Yerevan W 1-029.2 1210 762 80.83% 15.82% 3.35%+1.96 +2.2 32
2000-08-04 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 0-129.2 762 1210 3.35% 15.82% 80.83%-1.96 -2.2 5
2000-08-08 Lernagorts Kapan W 5-127.0 1330 772 83.68% 14.45% 1.87%+2.38 +3.5 34
2000-08-08 @ Shirak L 1-527.0 772 1330 1.87% 14.45% 83.68%-2.38 -3.6 4
2000-08-15 Dinamo Yerevan W 1-029.3 1205 760 80.75% 15.85% 3.40%+1.95 +2.2 33
2000-08-15 @ Araks Ararat L 0-129.3 760 1205 3.40% 15.85% 80.75%-1.95 -2.2 5
2000-09-07 Lernagorts Kapan W 3-131.5 1208 769 80.55% 15.93% 3.52%+1.92 +3.8 36
2000-09-07 @ Araks Ararat L 1-331.5 769 1208 3.52% 15.93% 80.55%-1.92 -3.8 4
2000-09-07 Shirak L 1-429.6 758 1334 3.61% 15.98% 80.41%-1.94 -5.5 5
2000-09-07 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 4-129.6 1334 758 80.41% 15.98% 3.61%+1.94 +5.5 37
2000-09-07 Kilikia W 5-339.2 1207 886 76.26% 17.23% 6.51%+1.47 +6.0 38
2000-09-07 @ Mika L 3-539.2 886 1207 6.51% 17.23% 76.26%-1.47 -6.0 14
2000-09-07 Ararat D 1-153.8 1212 1235 47.11% 19.34% 33.55%+0.17 -1.7 33
2000-09-07 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC D 1-153.8 1235 1212 33.55% 19.34% 47.11%-0.17 +1.7 37
2000-09-12 Zvartnots-AAC FC W 4-244.9 1211 1211 50.12% 19.30% 30.58%+0.25 +26.7 39
2000-09-12 @ Araks Ararat L 2-444.9 1211 1211 30.58% 19.30% 50.12%-0.25 -26.6 33
2000-09-12 Dinamo Yerevan W 4-129.1 1236 752 81.85% 15.38% 2.77%+2.10 +4.2 40
2000-09-12 @ Ararat L 1-429.1 752 1236 2.77% 15.38% 81.85%-2.10 -4.2 5
2000-09-12 Kilikia W 1-043.2 765 880 34.17% 19.35% 46.48%-0.19 +25.8 7
2000-09-12 @ Lernagorts Kapan L 0-143.2 880 765 46.48% 19.35% 34.17%+0.19 -25.8 14
2000-09-12 Mika W 2-139.2 1339 1213 63.80% 18.80% 17.40%+0.73 +10.5 40
2000-09-12 @ Shirak L 1-239.2 1213 1339 17.40% 18.80% 63.80%-0.73 -10.5 38
2000-09-16 Mika D 2-258.5 791 1203 8.49% 17.72% 73.78%-1.32 +6.6 8
2000-09-16 @ Lernagorts Kapan D 2-258.5 1203 791 73.78% 17.72% 8.49%+1.32 -6.6 39
2000-09-17 Araks Ararat W 2-036.4 1241 1238 50.39% 19.29% 30.31%+0.26 +34.2 43
2000-09-17 @ Ararat L 0-236.4 1238 1241 30.31% 19.29% 50.39%-0.26 -34.2 39
2000-09-17 Dinamo Yerevan W 5-133.5 854 748 61.99% 18.91% 19.11%+0.66 +36.2 17
2000-09-17 @ Kilikia L 1-533.5 748 854 19.11% 18.91% 61.99%-0.66 -36.1 5
2000-09-17 Zvartnots-AAC FC D 0-050.7 1350 1184 67.10% 18.55% 14.34%+0.88 -7.8 41
2000-09-17 @ Shirak D 0-050.7 1184 1350 14.34% 18.55% 67.10%-0.88 +7.8 34
2000-09-21 Araks Ararat L 0-524.6 712 1204 5.61% 16.93% 77.45%-1.62 -16.5 5
2000-09-21 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 5-024.6 1204 712 77.45% 16.93% 5.61%+1.62 +16.5 42
2000-09-21 Shirak D 2-258.7 891 1342 6.93% 17.35% 75.72%-1.47 +7.0 18
2000-09-21 @ Kilikia D 2-258.7 1342 891 75.72% 17.35% 6.93%+1.47 -7.1 42
2000-09-21 Ararat L 0-141.4 1196 1275 39.24% 19.37% 41.38%-0.05 -22.4 39
2000-09-21 @ Mika W 1-041.4 1275 1196 41.38% 19.37% 39.24%+0.05 +22.4 46
2000-09-21 Lernagorts Kapan W 3-025.5 1192 798 79.12% 16.44% 4.44%+1.75 +8.0 37
2000-09-21 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC L 0-325.5 798 1192 4.44% 16.44% 79.12%-1.75 -8.0 8
2000-09-30 Zvartnots-AAC FC D 1-154.2 695 1200 5.26% 16.80% 77.95%-1.67 +10.0 6
2000-09-30 @ Dinamo Yerevan D 1-154.2 1200 695 77.95% 16.80% 5.26%+1.67 -10.0 38
2000-09-30 Ararat W 3-153.0 898 1297 9.05% 17.84% 73.11%-1.27 +65.0 21
2000-09-30 @ Kilikia L 1-353.0 1297 898 73.11% 17.84% 9.05%+1.27 -65.0 46
2000-09-30 Shirak L 1-233.9 789 1335 4.24% 16.34% 79.42%-1.83 -2.6 8
2000-09-30 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 2-133.9 1335 789 79.42% 16.34% 4.24%+1.83 +2.6 45
2000-09-30 Araks Ararat D 0-050.1 1174 1220 43.80% 19.37% 36.83%+0.07 -0.9 40
2000-09-30 @ Mika D 0-050.1 1220 1174 36.83% 19.37% 43.80%-0.07 +0.9 43
2000-10-15 Mika FL48.1 1190 1173 52.21% 19.26% 28.53%+0.32 +0.0 38
2000-10-15 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC FW48.1 1173 1190 28.53% 19.26% 52.21%-0.32 +0.0 43
2000-10-15 Kilikia W 3-027.3 1221 963 73.18% 17.82% 8.99%+1.24 +16.3 46
2000-10-15 @ Araks Ararat L 0-327.3 963 1221 8.99% 17.82% 73.18%-1.24 -16.3 21
2000-10-15 Shirak D 0-050.7 1232 1338 35.48% 19.36% 45.16%-0.15 +1.3 47
2000-10-15 @ Ararat D 0-050.7 1338 1232 45.16% 19.36% 35.48%+0.15 -1.3 46
2000-10-15 Lernagorts Kapan D 1-153.4 706 787 38.85% 19.37% 41.77%-0.06 +0.4 7
2000-10-15 @ Dinamo Yerevan D 1-153.4 787 706 41.77% 19.37% 38.85%+0.06 -0.4 9
2000-10-22 Zvartnots-AAC FC L 1-337.3 946 1190 19.56% 18.93% 61.51%-0.68 -20.2 21
2000-10-22 @ Kilikia W 3-137.3 1190 946 61.51% 18.93% 19.56%+0.68 +20.2 41
2000-10-22 Ararat L 0-228.5 786 1234 7.09% 17.39% 75.52%-1.45 -8.9 9
2000-10-22 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 2-028.5 1234 786 75.52% 17.39% 7.09%+1.45 +8.9 50
2000-10-22 Dinamo Yerevan W 2-133.3 1173 706 81.38% 15.59% 3.03%+2.03 +1.9 46
2000-10-22 @ Mika L 1-233.3 706 1173 3.03% 15.59% 81.38%-2.03 -1.9 7
2000-10-22 Araks Ararat L 0-148.3 1336 1238 61.26% 18.95% 19.80%+0.63 -33.3 46
2000-10-22 @ Shirak W 1-048.3 1238 1336 19.80% 18.95% 61.26%-0.63 +33.3 49
2000-10-29 Ararat W 2-142.1 1271 1242 53.59% 19.23% 27.18%+0.36 +15.6 52
2000-10-29 @ Araks Ararat L 1-242.1 1242 1271 27.18% 19.23% 53.59%-0.36 -15.6 50
2000-10-29 Kilikia L 0-530.0 704 926 21.62% 19.04% 59.35%-0.59 -59.7 7
2000-10-29 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 5-030.0 926 704 59.35% 19.04% 21.62%+0.59 +59.7 24
2000-10-29 Lernagorts Kapan W 2-027.4 1175 778 79.21% 16.41% 4.38%+1.76 +5.5 49
2000-10-29 @ Mika L 0-227.4 778 1175 4.38% 16.41% 79.21%-1.76 -5.5 9
2000-10-29 Shirak L 2-349.6 1210 1303 37.23% 19.37% 43.41%-0.10 -19.2 41
2000-10-29 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC W 3-249.6 1303 1210 43.41% 19.37% 37.23%+0.10 +19.2 49
2000-11-04 Zvartnots-AAC FC W 2-035.0 1227 1191 54.47% 19.20% 26.33%+0.39 +30.3 53
2000-11-04 @ Ararat L 0-235.0 1191 1227 26.33% 19.20% 54.47%-0.39 -30.3 41
2000-11-04 Mika W 3-254.8 986 1180 24.51% 19.15% 56.34%-0.49 +27.5 27
2000-11-04 @ Kilikia L 2-354.8 1180 986 56.34% 19.15% 24.51%+0.49 -27.5 49
2000-11-04 Araks Ararat L 3-538.6 772 1286 4.99% 16.69% 78.32%-1.71 -4.6 9
2000-11-04 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 5-338.6 1286 772 78.32% 16.69% 4.99%+1.71 +4.6 55
2000-11-04 Dinamo Yerevan W 1-027.6 1322 644 86.13% 12.88% 0.99%+2.83 +0.6 52
2000-11-04 @ Shirak L 0-127.6 644 1322 0.99% 12.88% 86.13%-2.83 -0.6 7
2000-11-11 Ararat FL49.1 644 1257 2.96% 15.54% 81.50%-2.09 +0.0 7
2000-11-11 @ Dinamo Yerevan FW49.1 1257 644 81.50% 15.54% 2.96%+2.09 +0.0 56
2000-11-11 Shirak FL48.3 1153 1323 27.24% 19.23% 53.53%-0.40 +0.0 49
2000-11-11 @ Mika FW48.3 1323 1153 53.53% 19.23% 27.24%+0.40 +0.0 55
2000-11-11 Araks Ararat FL48.2 1161 1291 32.18% 19.32% 48.50%-0.25 +0.0 41
2000-11-11 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC FW48.2 1291 1161 48.50% 19.32% 32.18%+0.25 +0.0 58
2000-11-11 Lernagorts Kapan W 1-031.7 1013 768 72.46% 17.94% 9.60%+1.19 +6.4 30
2000-11-11 @ Kilikia L 0-131.7 768 1013 9.60% 17.94% 72.46%-1.19 -6.4 9
2000-11-16 Dinamo Yerevan FW49.7 1291 644 85.55% 13.28% 1.16%+2.72 +0.0 61
2000-11-16 @ Araks Ararat FL49.7 644 1291 1.16% 13.28% 85.55%-2.72 +0.0 7
2000-11-16 Mika FW48.3 1257 1153 61.80% 18.92% 19.28%+0.65 +0.0 59
2000-11-16 @ Ararat FL48.3 1153 1257 19.28% 18.92% 61.80%-0.65 +0.0 49
2000-11-16 Zvartnots-AAC FC FW48.4 761 1161 9.05% 17.84% 73.11%-1.27 +0.0 12
2000-11-16 @ Lernagorts Kapan FL48.4 1161 761 73.11% 17.84% 9.05%+1.27 +0.0 41
2000-11-16 Kilikia W 2-135.2 1323 1020 75.45% 17.41% 7.14%+1.41 +4.5 58
2000-11-16 @ Shirak L 1-235.2 1020 1323 7.14% 17.41% 75.45%-1.41 -4.5 30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2000-06-17 7.45% Zvartnots-AAC FC 1168 3 @ Shirak 1463 1
2 2000-09-30 9.05% @ Kilikia 898 3 Ararat 1297 1
3 2000-05-09 15.86% Kilikia 826 3 @ Lernagorts Kapan 972 1
4 2000-06-29 17.60% @ Mika 1133 1 Shirak 1399 0
5 2000-06-13 18.31% Ararat 1125 2 @ Araks Ararat 1240 0
6 2000-10-22 19.80% Araks Ararat 1238 1 @ Shirak 1336 0
7 2000-07-29 24.26% @ Araks Ararat 1163 2 Shirak 1360 1
8 2000-11-04 24.51% @ Kilikia 986 3 Mika 1180 2
9 2000-07-15 27.13% Mika 1152 1 @ Araks Ararat 1181 0
10 2000-04-30 31.22% @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 1037 4 Ararat 1175 0
11 2000-04-04 31.89% @ Mika 951 4 Zvartnots-AAC FC 1084 1
12 2000-05-18 33.91% Ararat 1087 1 @ Mika 1061 0
13 2000-09-12 34.17% @ Lernagorts Kapan 765 1 Kilikia 880 0
14 2000-06-13 34.84% Kilikia 877 4 @ Dinamo Yerevan 845 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-03-25 129.59 @ Shirak 13 1223 55.46% Lernagorts Kapan 1 1179 25.36% 19.18%
2 2000-04-30 97.49 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 4 1037 31.22% Ararat 0 1175 49.47% 19.31%
3 2000-04-14 70.29 @ Ararat 5 1105 54.72% Lernagorts Kapan 0 1067 26.08% 19.20%
4 2000-06-17 66.72 Zvartnots-AAC FC 3 1168 7.45% @ Shirak 1 1463 75.07% 17.48%
5 2000-06-08 65.67 @ Shirak 6 1404 61.22% Araks Ararat 0 1306 19.83% 18.95%
6 2000-09-30 65.01 @ Kilikia 3 898 9.05% Ararat 1 1297 73.11% 17.84%
7 2000-06-13 64.40 Ararat 2 1125 18.31% @ Araks Ararat 0 1240 62.83% 18.86%
8 2000-04-04 62.16 @ Mika 4 951 31.89% Zvartnots-AAC FC 1 1084 48.79% 19.32%
9 2000-10-29 59.69 Kilikia 5 926 59.35% @ Dinamo Yerevan 0 704 21.62% 19.04%
10 2000-05-09 58.11 Kilikia 3 826 15.86% @ Lernagorts Kapan 1 972 65.46% 18.69%
11 2000-06-21 48.67 Mika 3 1084 51.09% @ Kilikia 0 934 29.63% 19.28%
12 2000-04-14 40.48 Shirak 2 1359 43.43% @ Araks Ararat 0 1266 37.20% 19.37%
13 2000-06-13 37.22 Kilikia 4 877 34.84% @ Dinamo Yerevan 2 845 45.81% 19.35%
14 2000-09-17 36.16 @ Kilikia 5 854 61.99% Dinamo Yerevan 1 748 19.11% 18.91%
15 2000-05-18 35.96 Araks Ararat 6 1272 71.55% @ Dinamo Yerevan 0 900 10.38% 18.07%
16 2000-06-29 34.56 @ Mika 1 1133 17.60% Shirak 0 1399 63.59% 18.81%
17 2000-09-17 34.16 @ Ararat 2 1241 50.39% Araks Ararat 0 1238 30.31% 19.29%
18 2000-10-22 33.30 Araks Ararat 1 1238 19.80% @ Shirak 0 1336 61.26% 18.95%
19 2000-06-08 31.05 @ Mika 5 1017 65.14% Dinamo Yerevan 1 876 16.16% 18.71%
20 2000-05-31 30.57 @ Dinamo Yerevan 4 845 44.56% Lernagorts Kapan 2 886 36.07% 19.36%
21 2000-11-04 30.30 @ Ararat 2 1227 54.47% Zvartnots-AAC FC 0 1191 26.33% 19.20%
22 2000-07-15 29.33 Mika 1 1152 27.13% @ Araks Ararat 0 1181 53.64% 19.23%
23 2000-07-29 29.08 @ Araks Ararat 2 1163 24.26% Shirak 1 1360 56.60% 19.14%
24 2000-11-04 27.47 @ Kilikia 3 986 24.51% Mika 2 1180 56.34% 19.15%
25 2000-09-12 26.66 @ Araks Ararat 4 1211 50.12% Zvartnots-AAC FC 2 1211 30.58% 19.30%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-07-29 62.7 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 3 1216 76.90% Kilikia 3 880 6.03% 17.07%
2 2000-07-09 62.2 @ Ararat 3 1224 55.60% Araks Ararat 3 1179 25.23% 19.17%
3 2000-09-21 58.7 @ Kilikia 2 891 6.93% Shirak 2 1342 75.72% 17.35%
4 2000-09-16 58.5 @ Lernagorts Kapan 2 791 8.49% Mika 2 1203 73.78% 17.72%
5 2000-05-23 58.3 @ Mika 2 1036 17.03% Araks Ararat 2 1308 64.19% 18.77%
6 2000-07-01 58.3 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 2 1235 57.18% Araks Ararat 2 1176 23.70% 19.12%
7 2000-06-13 54.9 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 1 1161 14.26% Shirak 1 1470 67.20% 18.54%
8 2000-11-04 54.8 @ Kilikia 3 986 24.51% Mika 2 1180 56.34% 19.15%
9 2000-06-17 54.6 Zvartnots-AAC FC 3 1168 7.45% @ Shirak 1 1463 75.07% 17.48%
10 2000-07-24 54.5 @ Shirak 1 1366 64.98% Ararat 1 1226 16.30% 18.72%
11 2000-04-30 54.3 @ Dinamo Yerevan 1 899 5.36% Shirak 1 1400 77.80% 16.84%
12 2000-09-30 54.2 @ Dinamo Yerevan 1 695 5.26% Zvartnots-AAC FC 1 1200 77.95% 16.80%
13 2000-09-07 53.8 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 1 1212 47.11% Ararat 1 1235 33.55% 19.34%
14 2000-06-08 53.7 @ Kilikia 1 870 15.09% Zvartnots-AAC FC 1 1167 66.28% 18.62%
15 2000-10-15 53.4 @ Dinamo Yerevan 1 706 38.85% Lernagorts Kapan 1 787 41.77% 19.37%
16 2000-09-30 53.0 @ Kilikia 3 898 9.05% Ararat 1 1297 73.11% 17.84%
17 2000-07-29 51.0 @ Araks Ararat 2 1163 24.26% Shirak 1 1360 56.60% 19.14%
18 2000-05-09 50.9 Kilikia 3 826 15.86% @ Lernagorts Kapan 1 972 65.46% 18.69%
19 2000-05-09 50.9 @ Shirak 0 1390 77.03% Mika 0 1050 5.93% 17.04%
20 2000-09-17 50.7 @ Shirak 0 1350 67.10% Zvartnots-AAC FC 0 1184 14.34% 18.55%
21 2000-10-15 50.7 @ Ararat 0 1232 35.48% Shirak 0 1338 45.16% 19.36%
22 2000-06-21 50.2 @ Ararat 0 1189 43.98% Zvartnots-AAC FC 0 1234 36.65% 19.37%
23 2000-09-30 50.1 @ Mika 0 1174 43.80% Araks Ararat 0 1220 36.83% 19.37%
24 2000-07-23 49.9 @ Lernagorts Kapan 0 792 53.55% Dinamo Yerevan 0 763 27.22% 19.23%
25 2000-10-29 49.6 Shirak 3 1303 43.41% @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 2 1210 37.23% 19.37%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-06-24 23.8 @ Shirak 3 1396 84.78% Dinamo Yerevan 0 788 1.43% 13.79%
2 2000-09-21 24.6 Araks Ararat 5 1204 77.45% @ Dinamo Yerevan 0 712 5.61% 16.93%
3 2000-05-23 25.1 Shirak 4 1379 76.90% @ Lernagorts Kapan 0 900 6.03% 17.08%
4 2000-09-21 25.5 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 3 1192 79.12% Lernagorts Kapan 0 798 4.44% 16.44%
5 2000-05-18 26.6 Araks Ararat 6 1272 71.55% @ Dinamo Yerevan 0 900 10.38% 18.07%
6 2000-04-30 26.7 @ Araks Ararat 4 1226 71.49% Lernagorts Kapan 0 996 10.43% 18.07%
7 2000-08-08 27.0 @ Shirak 5 1330 83.68% Lernagorts Kapan 1 772 1.87% 14.45%
8 2000-10-15 27.3 @ Araks Ararat 3 1221 73.18% Kilikia 0 963 8.99% 17.82%
9 2000-10-29 27.4 @ Mika 2 1175 79.21% Lernagorts Kapan 0 778 4.38% 16.41%
10 2000-11-04 27.6 @ Shirak 1 1322 86.13% Dinamo Yerevan 0 644 0.99% 12.88%
11 2000-10-22 28.5 Ararat 2 1234 75.52% @ Lernagorts Kapan 0 786 7.09% 17.39%
12 2000-03-25 28.8 @ Araks Ararat 2 1246 74.55% Mika 0 961 7.87% 17.59%
13 2000-06-29 29.0 Ararat 6 1188 73.31% @ Dinamo Yerevan 1 785 8.89% 17.80%
14 2000-09-12 29.1 @ Ararat 4 1236 81.85% Dinamo Yerevan 1 752 2.77% 15.38%
15 2000-08-04 29.2 @ Zvartnots-AAC FC 1 1210 80.83% Dinamo Yerevan 0 762 3.35% 15.82%
16 2000-08-15 29.3 @ Araks Ararat 1 1205 80.75% Dinamo Yerevan 0 760 3.40% 15.85%
17 2000-09-07 29.6 Shirak 4 1334 80.41% @ Dinamo Yerevan 1 758 3.61% 15.98%
18 2000-10-29 30.0 Kilikia 5 926 59.35% @ Dinamo Yerevan 0 704 21.62% 19.04%
19 2000-06-13 30.2 @ Mika 2 1048 69.83% Lernagorts Kapan 0 845 11.89% 18.28%
20 2000-04-30 30.4 @ Mika 2 1035 69.13% Kilikia 0 842 12.52% 18.36%
21 2000-07-15 30.6 @ Ararat 1 1222 76.51% Kilikia 0 895 6.32% 17.17%
22 2000-07-29 31.0 Mika 1 1202 74.96% @ Dinamo Yerevan 0 767 7.54% 17.51%
23 2000-04-14 31.4 @ Ararat 5 1105 54.72% Lernagorts Kapan 0 1067 26.08% 19.20%
24 2000-09-07 31.5 @ Araks Ararat 3 1208 80.55% Lernagorts Kapan 1 769 3.52% 15.93%
25 2000-06-08 31.7 @ Shirak 6 1404 61.22% Araks Ararat 0 1306 19.83% 18.95%