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2005 Armenian Premier League Season

104 games

Final

Champion

Pyunik

38 points · 8th Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Banants

5.42 points above expected

34 points · 28.58 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Shirak

6.93 points below expected

11 points · 17.93 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Pyunik Champion 16 11 5 0 38 32 6 +26 38.28 -0.28
2 Mika 16 10 5 1 35 27 11 +16 33.67 +1.33
3 Banants 16 10 4 2 34 32 17 +15 28.58 +5.42
4 Kotayk 16 7 7 2 28 28 15 +13 24.06 +3.94
5 Kilikia 16 6 3 7 21 29 25 +4 23.29 -2.29
6 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 16 4 3 9 15 20 26 -6 14.75 +0.25
7 Shirak 16 3 2 11 11 18 34 -16 17.93 -6.93
8 Lernagorts Kapan 16 3 1 12 10 9 38 -29 13.17 -3.17
9 Lernayin Artsakh 16 3 0 13 9 14 37 -23 8.57 +0.43
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Kotayk 10 6 1 3 19 10 8 +2 14.90 +4.10
2 Mika 10 5 3 2 18 15 7 +8 36.80 -18.80
3 Pyunik 10 5 2 3 17 19 11 +8 58.14 -41.14
4 Banants 10 5 2 3 17 17 14 +3 18.32 -1.32
5 Kilikia 10 3 2 5 11 10 12 -2 -20.95 +31.95
6 Lernagorts Kapan 2 1 1 0 4 2 1 +1 8.79 -4.79
7 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 10 1 0 9 3 4 23 -19 -23.35 +26.35
8 Shirak 2 0 1 1 1 1 2 -1 12.15 -11.15

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Banants 34 28.58 +5.42
2 Kotayk 28 24.06 +3.94
3 Mika 35 33.67 +1.33
4 Lernayin Artsakh 9 8.57 +0.43
5 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 15 14.75 +0.25

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shirak 11 17.93 -6.93
2 Lernagorts Kapan 10 13.17 -3.17
3 Kilikia 21 23.29 -2.29
4 Pyunik 38 38.28 -0.28
5 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 15 14.75 +0.25

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lernagorts Kapan 2 Jul 18 – Jul 24 1 in 25
2 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 2 Jul 13 – Jul 19 1 in 9
3 Banants 4 Apr 12 – May 12 1 in 8
4 Kilikia 3 Jul 3 – Jul 14 1 in 8
5 Kotayk 3 May 30 – Jun 17 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lernayin Artsakh 6 Jun 28 – Jul 24 1 in 53
2 Lernagorts Kapan 8 May 23 – Jul 13 1 in 50
3 Shirak 4 Jul 18 – Aug 4 1 in 17
4 Kilikia 3 Jul 19 – Jul 31 1 in 10
5 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 3 Apr 18 – May 6 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kotayk 11 Apr 17 – Jul 2 1 in 397
2 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 4 May 13 – May 30 1 in 22
3 Banants 7 Jun 29 – Aug 4 1 in 16
4 Mika 15 Apr 18 – Jul 31 1 in 15
5 Lernagorts Kapan 2 Jul 18 – Jul 24 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kilikia 4 May 5 – Jun 11 1 in 8
2 Lernagorts Kapan 10 May 6 – Jul 13 1 in 7
3 Pyunik 2 Jun 29 – Jul 2 1 in 6
4 Lernayin Artsakh 6 Jun 28 – Jul 24 1 in 6
5 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 6 May 18 – Jun 22 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Pyunik 1491 55 -37 7 10.9 -3.9
Mika 1473 53 +58 11 9.0 +2.0
Banants 1345 51 +51 12 7.4 +4.6
Kotayk 1293 47 +2 9 6.7 +2.3
Kilikia 1179 32 -28 4 5.2 -1.2
Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1006 18 -47 0 2.7 -2.7
Lernagorts Kapan 911 14 +41 10 4.0 +6.0
Shirak 970 12 -57 1 5.2 -4.2
Lernayin Artsakh 1020 9 +0 0 5.1 -5.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BAN DY KIL KOT LK LA MIK PYU SHI
Banants —
1-1-0
4.29
2-0-0
3.61
1-1-0
3.46
2-0-0
4.81
2-0-0
4.43
0-1-1
2.00
0-1-1
1.31
2-0-0
4.40
Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan
0-1-1
1.29
 —
1-1-0
1.73
0-0-2
1.72
1-0-1
3.42
1-0-1
2.84
0-0-2
0.86
0-0-2
0.60
1-1-0
2.24
Kilikia
0-0-2
1.94
0-1-1
3.83
 —
1-1-0
2.90
2-0-0
3.95
2-0-0
4.09
0-1-1
1.23
0-0-2
0.85
1-0-1
3.69
Kotayk
0-1-1
2.10
2-0-0
3.84
0-1-1
2.66
 —
1-1-0
4.19
2-0-0
3.95
0-2-0
1.49
0-2-0
0.89
2-0-0
3.77
Lernagorts Kapan
0-0-2
0.82
1-0-1
2.13
0-0-2
1.62
0-1-1
1.39
 —
1-0-1
2.36
0-0-2
0.77
0-0-2
0.48
1-0-1
1.71
Lernayin Artsakh
0-0-2
1.16
1-0-1
2.71
0-0-2
1.48
0-0-2
1.62
1-0-1
3.19
 —
0-0-2
0.80
0-0-2
0.55
1-0-1
2.10
Mika
1-1-0
3.56
2-0-0
4.76
1-1-0
4.35
0-2-0
4.08
2-0-0
4.86
2-0-0
4.82
 —
0-1-1
1.90
2-0-0
4.69
Pyunik
1-1-0
4.28
2-0-0
5.07
2-0-0
4.77
0-2-0
4.72
2-0-0
5.22
2-0-0
5.13
1-1-0
3.66
 —
1-1-0
4.99
Shirak
0-0-2
1.19
0-1-1
3.31
1-0-1
1.87
0-0-2
1.79
1-0-1
3.85
1-0-1
3.45
0-0-2
0.93
0-1-1
0.67
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +12.5
Allowed 0.94 -9.7
Differential 0.93 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.62%10.10%5.77%4.81%0.48%2.40%33.17%
110.10%5.77%5.29%4.33%3.85%—29.33%
25.77%5.29%2.88%0.96%0.96%0.48%16.35%
34.81%4.33%0.96%0.96%0.48%—11.54%
40.48%3.85%0.96%0.48%0.96%—6.73%
5+2.40%—0.48%———2.88%
Total33.17%29.33%16.35%11.54%6.73%2.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.38 +0.00
SD 1.37 1.37 2.06
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 104

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%—3.85%———15.38%
119.23%3.85%3.85%3.85%3.85%—34.62%
23.85%7.69%3.85%——3.85%19.23%
33.85%3.85%3.85%———11.54%
4—11.54%——3.85%—15.38%
5+3.85%—————3.85%
Total42.31%26.92%15.38%3.85%7.69%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 1.19 +0.69
SD 1.45 1.44 1.91
CV 0.77 1.21 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%26.92%11.54%3.85%—3.85%53.85%
1——3.85%11.54%7.69%—23.08%
2—7.69%————7.69%
3——3.85%3.85%——7.69%
43.85%—3.85%———7.69%
5+———————
Total11.54%34.62%23.08%19.23%7.69%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.88 -0.96
SD 1.29 1.31 1.82
CV 1.40 0.69 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%15.38%11.54%3.85%——42.31%
13.85%—3.85%3.85%3.85%—15.38%
23.85%—7.69%—3.85%—15.38%
33.85%7.69%————11.54%
4——3.85%3.85%——7.69%
5+7.69%—————7.69%
Total30.77%23.08%26.92%11.54%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.42 +0.08
SD 1.68 1.27 2.19
CV 1.12 0.89 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%7.69%3.85%———23.08%
115.38%15.38%——3.85%—34.62%
27.69%7.69%3.85%———19.23%
37.69%7.69%——3.85%—19.23%
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+———————
Total42.31%42.31%7.69%—7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 0.88 +0.58
SD 1.17 1.11 1.50
CV 0.80 1.25 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%16.67%50.00%
116.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
2———————
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%16.67%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 2.17 -1.56
SD 0.78 1.82 2.33
CV 1.27 0.84 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%12.50%31.25%——50.00%
16.25%——12.50%6.25%—25.00%
26.25%——12.50%——18.75%
3———————
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+———————
Total12.50%12.50%12.50%56.25%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 2.31 -1.44
SD 1.15 1.20 1.90
CV 1.31 0.52 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%3.85%————19.23%
111.54%7.69%7.69%———26.92%
219.23%11.54%3.85%———34.62%
37.69%3.85%————11.54%
4—3.85%——3.85%—7.69%
5+———————
Total53.85%30.77%11.54%—3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 0.69 +0.92
SD 1.17 0.97 1.23
CV 0.72 1.40 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%3.85%————19.23%
115.38%7.69%7.69%———30.77%
23.85%7.69%3.85%———15.38%
37.69%7.69%————15.38%
4—7.69%————7.69%
5+7.69%—3.85%———11.54%
Total50.00%34.62%15.38%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.96 0.65 +1.31
SD 1.64 0.75 1.69
CV 0.83 1.14 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%—11.11%—5.56%38.89%
1—5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
25.56%———5.56%—11.11%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 2.00 -0.94
SD 1.11 1.50 1.98
CV 1.05 0.75 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Pyunik 1491 38 38.28 -0.28 52.0% 27 32 35 38 41 45 48
Mika 1473 35 33.67 +1.33 65.0% 22 25 31 34 37 40 42
Banants 1345 34 28.58 +5.42 86.0% 20 21 25 28 32 37 40
Kotayk 1293 28 24.06 +3.94 81.0% 14 16 21 23 28 32 35
Kilikia 1179 21 23.29 -2.29 38.0% 12 13 20 23 27 31 36
Lernayin Artsakh 1020 9 8.57 +0.43 62.0% 0 3 6 8 11 15 18
Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1006 15 14.75 +0.25 52.0% 5 7 11 15 18 22 26
Shirak 970 11 17.93 -6.93 7.0% 8 11 15 18 21 25 28
Lernagorts Kapan 911 10 13.17 -3.17 28.0% 5 7 10 13 16 20 25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+0.96%
No Edge
40.38%20.19%39.42%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 3.34 Elo pts.
205 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.05 goals
Neutral
-2+0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.7
One-Team Race
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
74%
Pyunik, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.19/gm
Tight Race
00.320.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.57 * Some Luck: 3.57 to 5.35 * Lucky: 5.35 to 7.14 * Wild Swing: 7.14 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.6 * Close: 0.6 to 0.9 * Off: 0.9 to 1.21 * Way Off: 1.21 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.50 points
As Expected
04.4611
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.22
Pinpoint
00.752
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
86.00%
Banants
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
7.00%
Shirak
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Top-Heavy
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 216.34
2.15
Coin-Flip Parity
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
86%
Clear Edge
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
98%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Some Drama
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.54
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.61
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.93
Near-Lock
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Chalky
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.95
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.16
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.123
Well Within Noise
00.1550.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Pyunik74.00%20.00%5.00%1.00%—————
Mika20.00%50.00%20.00%9.00%1.00%————
Banants6.00%22.00%38.00%22.00%9.00%2.00%1.00%——
Kotayk—7.00%22.00%26.00%27.00%16.00%1.00%1.00%—
Kilikia—1.00%12.00%33.00%29.00%14.00%8.00%3.00%—
Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan———2.00%10.00%23.00%29.00%25.00%11.00%
Shirak——2.00%7.00%21.00%30.00%24.00%16.00%—
Lernagorts Kapan——1.00%—3.00%10.00%29.00%42.00%15.00%
Lernayin Artsakh—————5.00%8.00%13.00%74.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff final Lost relegation playoff
Banants 100% — —
Kotayk 100% — —
Mika 100% — —
Pyunik 100% — —
Kilikia 95.00% 4.00% 1.00%
Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 79.00% 14.00% 7.00%
Shirak 81.00% 12.00% 7.00%
Lernayin Artsakh 20.00% 40.00% 40.00%
Lernagorts Kapan 25.00% 30.00% 45.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff final Lost relegation playoff
Banants 100% — —
Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 100% — —
Kilikia 100% — —
Kotayk 100% — —
Mika 100% — —
Pyunik 100% — —
Shirak 49.57% 33.52% 16.91%
Lernagorts Kapan 13.32% 27.93% 58.75%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2005-04-12 Kotayk W 1-037.6 1273 1145 56.01% 21.92% 22.07%+0.64 +10.4 3
2005-04-12 @ Banants L 0-137.6 1145 1273 22.07% 21.92% 56.01%-0.64 -10.4 0
2005-04-12 Lernayin Artsakh L 1-447.1 1140 991 58.21% 21.73% 20.06%+0.74 -54.0 0
2005-04-12 @ Shirak W 4-147.1 991 1140 20.06% 21.73% 58.21%-0.74 +54.1 3
2005-04-13 Lernagorts Kapan W 5-031.2 1165 1056 53.92% 22.07% 24.01%+0.55 +49.3 3
2005-04-13 @ Kilikia L 0-531.2 1056 1165 24.01% 22.07% 53.92%-0.55 -49.3 0
2005-04-13 Mika W 1-042.9 1494 1373 55.28% 21.97% 22.74%+0.61 +10.7 3
2005-04-13 @ Pyunik L 0-142.9 1373 1494 22.74% 21.97% 55.28%-0.61 -10.7 0
2005-04-17 Kilikia D 2-259.6 1135 1214 29.08% 22.33% 48.59%-0.37 +1.3 1
2005-04-17 @ Kotayk D 2-259.6 1214 1135 48.59% 22.33% 29.08%+0.37 -1.3 4
2005-04-17 Banants L 2-344.4 1045 1283 14.02% 20.84% 65.14%-1.14 -6.2 3
2005-04-17 @ Lernayin Artsakh W 3-244.4 1283 1045 65.14% 20.84% 14.02%+1.14 +6.2 6
2005-04-18 Pyunik L 0-324.9 1006 1504 3.89% 16.13% 79.98%-2.41 -5.1 0
2005-04-18 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 3-024.9 1504 1006 79.98% 16.13% 3.89%+2.41 +5.0 6
2005-04-18 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 2-137.9 1362 1056 71.05% 19.56% 9.39%+1.51 +4.4 3
2005-04-18 @ Mika L 1-237.9 1056 1362 9.39% 19.56% 71.05%-1.51 -4.4 0
2005-04-30 Lernayin Artsakh W 1-036.0 1213 1039 60.70% 21.46% 17.84%+0.86 +8.6 7
2005-04-30 @ Kilikia L 0-136.0 1039 1213 17.84% 21.46% 60.70%-0.86 -8.6 3
2005-04-30 Shirak W 1-035.3 1289 1085 63.46% 21.10% 15.44%+1.01 +7.5 9
2005-04-30 @ Banants L 0-135.3 1085 1289 15.44% 21.10% 63.46%-1.01 -7.5 0
2005-05-01 Kotayk D 1-156.9 1509 1136 74.90% 18.35% 6.75%+1.83 -6.8 7
2005-05-01 @ Pyunik D 1-156.9 1136 1509 6.75% 18.35% 74.90%-1.83 +6.8 2
2005-05-01 Lernagorts Kapan L 0-144.8 1051 1001 46.62% 22.40% 30.99%+0.26 -19.2 0
2005-05-01 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 1-044.8 1001 1051 30.99% 22.40% 46.62%-0.26 +19.2 3
2005-05-05 Kilikia W 3-149.5 1078 1221 21.91% 21.90% 56.19%-0.68 +37.0 3
2005-05-05 @ Shirak L 1-349.5 1221 1078 56.19% 21.90% 21.91%+0.68 -37.0 7
2005-05-05 Pyunik L 0-227.8 1030 1503 4.43% 16.66% 78.91%-2.28 -4.0 3
2005-05-05 @ Lernayin Artsakh W 2-027.8 1503 1030 78.91% 16.66% 4.43%+2.28 +4.0 10
2005-05-06 Mika L 0-132.5 1020 1366 8.28% 19.12% 72.60%-1.67 -4.1 3
2005-05-06 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 1-032.5 1366 1020 72.60% 19.12% 8.28%+1.67 +4.1 6
2005-05-06 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 1-037.9 1143 1032 54.15% 22.05% 23.80%+0.56 +11.1 5
2005-05-06 @ Kotayk L 0-137.9 1032 1143 23.80% 22.05% 54.15%-0.56 -11.1 0
2005-05-12 Shirak W 3-134.4 1507 1115 75.84% 18.00% 6.16%+1.92 +4.9 13
2005-05-12 @ Pyunik L 1-334.4 1115 1507 6.16% 18.00% 75.84%-1.92 -4.9 3
2005-05-12 Banants L 0-138.7 1184 1297 25.14% 22.14% 52.73%-0.53 -11.6 7
2005-05-12 @ Kilikia W 1-038.7 1297 1184 52.73% 22.14% 25.14%+0.53 +11.6 12
2005-05-13 Kotayk D 1-155.3 1370 1154 64.51% 20.94% 14.55%+1.07 -4.8 7
2005-05-13 @ Mika D 1-155.3 1154 1370 14.55% 20.94% 64.51%-1.07 +4.8 6
2005-05-13 Lernayin Artsakh W 3-252.1 1021 1026 38.97% 22.50% 38.53%-0.01 +14.7 3
2005-05-13 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan L 2-352.1 1026 1021 38.53% 22.50% 38.97%+0.01 -14.7 3
2005-05-17 Mika L 1-334.3 1012 1366 7.96% 18.97% 73.07%-1.71 -6.4 3
2005-05-17 @ Lernayin Artsakh W 3-134.3 1366 1012 73.07% 18.97% 7.96%+1.71 +6.4 10
2005-05-17 Pyunik L 2-541.5 1309 1511 16.60% 21.29% 62.11%-0.97 -16.1 12
2005-05-17 @ Banants W 5-241.5 1511 1309 62.11% 21.29% 16.60%+0.97 +16.1 16
2005-05-18 Lernagorts Kapan D 1-154.6 1159 1016 57.60% 21.78% 20.62%+0.71 -3.4 7
2005-05-18 @ Kotayk D 1-154.6 1016 1159 20.62% 21.78% 57.60%-0.71 +3.4 4
2005-05-18 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan D 3-363.5 1110 1036 49.77% 22.28% 27.94%+0.38 -1.2 4
2005-05-18 @ Shirak D 3-363.5 1036 1110 27.94% 22.28% 49.77%-0.38 +1.2 4
2005-05-23 Lernayin Artsakh L 0-240.2 1020 1005 41.81% 22.49% 35.70%+0.09 -33.0 4
2005-05-23 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 2-040.2 1005 1020 35.70% 22.49% 41.81%-0.09 +33.0 6
2005-05-23 Banants D 0-050.9 1037 1292 12.88% 20.59% 66.54%-1.23 +5.8 5
2005-05-23 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan D 0-050.9 1292 1037 66.54% 20.59% 12.88%+1.23 -5.9 13
2005-05-24 Shirak W 3-028.3 1372 1109 68.14% 20.26% 11.59%+1.30 +15.7 13
2005-05-24 @ Mika L 0-328.3 1109 1372 11.59% 20.26% 68.14%-1.30 -15.7 4
2005-05-29 Lernagorts Kapan W 2-034.8 1093 987 53.60% 22.09% 24.31%+0.53 +21.3 7
2005-05-29 @ Shirak L 0-234.8 987 1093 24.31% 22.09% 53.60%-0.53 -21.3 4
2005-05-30 Kotayk L 1-437.2 1038 1155 24.65% 22.11% 53.24%-0.55 -26.4 6
2005-05-30 @ Lernayin Artsakh W 4-137.2 1155 1038 53.24% 22.11% 24.65%+0.55 +26.4 10
2005-05-30 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan D 0-050.4 1173 1043 56.27% 21.90% 21.84%+0.65 -3.6 8
2005-05-30 @ Kilikia D 0-050.4 1043 1173 21.84% 21.90% 56.27%-0.65 +3.6 6
2005-06-11 Kilikia D 2-260.6 1388 1169 64.70% 20.91% 14.39%+1.08 -3.6 14
2005-06-11 @ Mika D 2-260.6 1169 1388 14.39% 20.91% 64.70%-1.08 +3.6 9
2005-06-11 Banants L 1-237.8 965 1287 9.36% 19.55% 71.10%-1.55 -4.4 4
2005-06-11 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 2-137.8 1287 965 71.10% 19.55% 9.36%+1.55 +4.4 16
2005-06-12 Pyunik L 0-131.1 1046 1528 4.23% 16.47% 79.30%-2.33 -2.0 6
2005-06-12 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 1-031.1 1528 1046 79.30% 16.47% 4.23%+2.33 +2.0 19
2005-06-12 Shirak W 3-033.8 1182 1114 48.90% 22.32% 28.78%+0.35 +35.6 13
2005-06-12 @ Kotayk L 0-333.8 1114 1182 28.78% 22.32% 48.90%-0.35 -35.6 7
2005-06-15 Lernagorts Kapan W 1-031.1 1384 961 77.35% 17.38% 5.27%+2.08 +2.6 17
2005-06-15 @ Mika L 0-131.1 961 1384 5.27% 17.38% 77.35%-2.08 -2.6 4
2005-06-16 Lernayin Artsakh W 3-132.3 1530 1012 81.29% 15.43% 3.28%+2.54 +2.5 22
2005-06-16 @ Pyunik L 1-332.3 1012 1530 3.28% 15.43% 81.29%-2.54 -2.5 6
2005-06-16 Shirak W 4-244.4 1173 1079 52.17% 22.17% 25.66%+0.47 +17.3 12
2005-06-16 @ Kilikia L 2-444.4 1079 1173 25.66% 22.17% 52.17%-0.47 -17.3 7
2005-06-17 Kotayk L 1-338.3 1044 1217 19.08% 21.62% 59.30%-0.83 -14.9 6
2005-06-17 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 3-138.3 1217 1044 59.30% 21.62% 19.08%+0.83 +14.9 16
2005-06-20 Kilikia W 2-035.4 1291 1190 53.00% 22.12% 24.87%+0.51 +21.7 19
2005-06-20 @ Banants L 0-235.4 1190 1291 24.87% 22.12% 53.00%-0.51 -21.7 12
2005-06-21 Mika D 0-051.5 1232 1387 20.83% 21.80% 57.37%-0.74 +3.8 17
2005-06-21 @ Kotayk D 0-051.5 1387 1232 57.37% 21.80% 20.83%+0.74 -3.8 18
2005-06-21 Pyunik D 0-052.9 1061 1532 4.46% 16.69% 78.85%-2.28 +8.3 8
2005-06-21 @ Shirak D 0-052.9 1532 1061 78.85% 16.69% 4.46%+2.28 -8.3 23
2005-06-22 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 1-043.1 1009 1029 36.92% 22.50% 40.58%-0.08 +17.1 9
2005-06-22 @ Lernayin Artsakh L 0-143.1 1029 1009 40.58% 22.50% 36.92%+0.08 -17.1 6
2005-06-25 Kilikia W 1-033.7 1524 1168 73.95% 18.68% 7.37%+1.75 +3.6 26
2005-06-25 @ Pyunik L 0-133.7 1168 1524 7.37% 18.68% 73.95%-1.75 -3.6 12
2005-06-25 Mika L 0-238.5 1313 1383 30.19% 22.37% 47.44%-0.33 -25.5 19
2005-06-25 @ Banants W 2-038.5 1383 1313 47.44% 22.37% 30.19%+0.33 +25.5 21
2005-06-27 Shirak W 2-149.5 1012 1070 31.80% 22.42% 45.78%-0.26 +17.8 9
2005-06-27 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan L 1-249.5 1070 1012 45.78% 22.42% 31.80%+0.26 -17.8 8
2005-06-28 Lernayin Artsakh W 2-028.6 1408 1026 75.35% 18.18% 6.47%+1.88 +6.0 24
2005-06-28 @ Mika L 0-228.6 1026 1408 6.47% 18.18% 75.35%-1.88 -6.0 9
2005-06-29 Kotayk L 1-335.6 959 1236 11.58% 20.26% 68.16%-1.34 -9.4 4
2005-06-29 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 3-135.6 1236 959 68.16% 20.26% 11.58%+1.34 +9.4 20
2005-06-29 Banants D 0-054.8 1527 1287 66.43% 20.61% 12.97%+1.19 -5.8 27
2005-06-29 @ Pyunik D 0-054.8 1287 1527 12.97% 20.61% 66.43%-1.19 +5.8 20
2005-07-01 Shirak FL35.7 1020 1052 35.31% 22.48% 42.21%-0.14 +0.0 9
2005-07-01 @ Lernayin Artsakh FW35.7 1052 1020 42.21% 22.48% 35.31%+0.14 +0.0 11
2005-07-02 Pyunik D 0-057.9 1414 1522 25.74% 22.17% 52.08%-0.51 +2.7 25
2005-07-02 @ Mika D 0-057.9 1522 1414 52.08% 22.17% 25.74%+0.51 -2.7 28
2005-07-02 Banants D 1-154.9 1246 1293 33.13% 22.45% 44.43%-0.22 +1.0 21
2005-07-02 @ Kotayk D 1-154.9 1293 1246 44.43% 22.45% 33.13%+0.22 -1.0 21
2005-07-03 Kilikia L 0-528.4 949 1165 15.63% 21.13% 63.23%-1.03 -33.7 4
2005-07-03 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 5-028.4 1165 949 63.23% 21.13% 15.63%+1.03 +33.7 15
2005-07-06 Lernagorts Kapan W 5-022.3 1519 916 84.23% 13.64% 2.13%+2.96 +4.2 31
2005-07-06 @ Pyunik L 0-522.3 916 1519 2.13% 13.64% 84.23%-2.96 -4.2 4
2005-07-08 Kotayk W 4-357.1 1198 1246 33.03% 22.45% 44.53%-0.22 +16.1 18
2005-07-08 @ Kilikia L 3-457.1 1246 1198 44.53% 22.45% 33.03%+0.22 -16.1 21
2005-07-09 Lernayin Artsakh FW27.9 1292 1020 68.73% 20.13% 11.13%+1.34 +0.0 24
2005-07-09 @ Banants FL27.9 1020 1292 11.13% 20.13% 68.73%-1.34 +0.0 9
2005-07-09 Mika L 0-228.7 1030 1417 6.76% 18.35% 74.89%-1.87 -6.3 9
2005-07-09 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 2-028.7 1417 1030 74.89% 18.35% 6.76%+1.87 +6.3 28
2005-07-13 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan L 0-431.5 911 1024 25.18% 22.14% 52.68%-0.53 -41.6 4
2005-07-13 @ Lernagorts Kapan W 4-031.5 1024 911 52.68% 22.14% 25.18%+0.53 +41.6 12
2005-07-14 Kilikia FL30.1 1020 1214 17.32% 21.39% 61.29%-0.93 +0.0 9
2005-07-14 @ Lernayin Artsakh FW30.1 1214 1020 61.29% 21.39% 17.32%+0.93 +0.0 21
2005-07-18 Shirak W 1-048.6 870 1052 18.30% 21.52% 60.18%-0.87 +24.2 7
2005-07-18 @ Lernagorts Kapan L 0-148.6 1052 870 60.18% 21.52% 18.30%+0.87 -24.2 11
2005-07-18 Banants D 4-467.6 1423 1292 56.40% 21.88% 21.71%+0.66 -1.7 29
2005-07-18 @ Mika D 4-467.6 1292 1423 21.71% 21.88% 56.40%-0.66 +1.7 25
2005-07-19 Kilikia W 4-253.6 1065 1214 21.34% 21.85% 56.81%-0.71 +33.4 15
2005-07-19 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan L 2-453.6 1214 1065 56.81% 21.85% 21.34%+0.71 -33.4 21
2005-07-21 Lernayin Artsakh FW29.3 1230 1020 63.97% 21.02% 15.01%+1.04 +0.0 24
2005-07-21 @ Kotayk FL29.3 1020 1230 15.01% 21.02% 63.97%-1.04 +0.0 9
2005-07-23 Mika L 1-236.8 1028 1422 6.54% 18.23% 75.24%-1.90 -3.0 11
2005-07-23 @ Shirak W 2-136.8 1422 1028 75.24% 18.23% 6.54%+1.90 +3.0 32
2005-07-23 Pyunik L 0-328.6 1181 1523 8.43% 19.18% 72.39%-1.65 -11.5 21
2005-07-23 @ Kilikia W 3-028.6 1523 1181 72.39% 19.18% 8.43%+1.65 +11.4 34
2005-07-23 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 3-137.4 1294 1099 62.68% 21.21% 16.11%+0.97 +12.8 28
2005-07-23 @ Banants L 1-337.4 1099 1294 16.11% 21.21% 62.68%-0.97 -12.8 15
2005-07-24 Lernagorts Kapan FL41.7 1020 894 55.90% 21.92% 22.17%+0.63 +0.0 9
2005-07-24 @ Lernayin Artsakh FW41.7 894 1020 22.17% 21.92% 55.90%-0.63 +0.0 10
2005-07-30 Kotayk L 1-240.4 1025 1230 16.38% 21.25% 62.37%-0.99 -7.5 11
2005-07-30 @ Shirak W 2-140.4 1230 1025 62.37% 21.25% 16.38%+0.99 +7.5 27
2005-07-30 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 4-130.7 1535 1086 78.51% 16.86% 4.64%+2.20 +5.2 37
2005-07-30 @ Pyunik L 1-430.7 1086 1535 4.64% 16.86% 78.51%-2.20 -5.1 15
2005-07-31 Lernagorts Kapan W 4-130.1 1307 894 76.87% 17.58% 5.55%+2.03 +6.2 31
2005-07-31 @ Banants L 1-430.1 894 1307 5.55% 17.58% 76.87%-2.03 -6.2 10
2005-07-31 Mika L 0-231.8 1169 1425 12.92% 20.60% 66.49%-1.23 -12.0 21
2005-07-31 @ Kilikia W 2-031.8 1425 1169 66.49% 20.60% 12.92%+1.23 +12.0 35
2005-08-04 Pyunik D 0-054.2 1238 1540 10.28% 19.87% 69.84%-1.45 +6.6 28
2005-08-04 @ Kotayk D 0-054.2 1540 1238 69.84% 19.87% 10.28%+1.45 -6.6 38
2005-08-04 Banants L 0-526.6 1017 1313 10.60% 19.97% 69.43%-1.42 -23.2 11
2005-08-04 @ Shirak W 5-026.6 1313 1017 69.43% 19.97% 10.60%+1.42 +23.2 34

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2005-08-27 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 5-024.8 1533 1081 78.67% 16.78% 4.55%+2.22 +9.6 3
2005-08-27 @ Pyunik L 0-524.8 1081 1533 4.55% 16.78% 78.67%-2.22 -9.6 0
2005-08-28 Mika D 0-051.8 1157 1437 11.49% 20.24% 68.27%-1.34 +6.2 1
2005-08-28 @ Kilikia D 0-051.8 1437 1157 68.27% 20.24% 11.49%+1.34 -6.2 1
2005-08-29 Banants D 0-051.1 1244 1336 27.57% 22.27% 50.16%-0.43 +2.3 1
2005-08-29 @ Kotayk D 0-051.1 1336 1244 50.16% 22.27% 27.57%+0.43 -2.3 1
2005-09-08 Lernagorts Kapan D 1-154.4 994 888 53.63% 22.08% 24.29%+0.53 -2.7 1
2005-09-08 @ Shirak D 1-154.4 888 994 24.29% 22.08% 53.63%-0.53 +2.7 1
2005-09-12 Kilikia L 1-351.0 1334 1164 60.36% 21.50% 18.13%+0.85 -39.6 1
2005-09-12 @ Banants W 3-151.0 1164 1334 18.13% 21.50% 60.36%-0.85 +39.6 4
2005-09-12 Kotayk L 0-233.1 1071 1247 18.87% 21.59% 59.54%-0.84 -17.1 0
2005-09-12 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 2-033.1 1247 1071 59.54% 21.59% 18.87%+0.84 +17.1 4
2005-09-12 Pyunik L 1-252.2 1430 1543 25.16% 22.14% 52.70%-0.53 -11.0 1
2005-09-12 @ Mika W 2-152.2 1543 1430 52.70% 22.14% 25.16%+0.53 +11.0 6
2005-09-15 Shirak W 1-046.2 890 991 26.46% 22.21% 51.33%-0.48 +20.8 4
2005-09-15 @ Lernagorts Kapan L 0-146.2 991 890 51.33% 22.21% 26.46%+0.48 -20.8 1
2005-09-18 Kotayk L 0-140.6 1203 1264 31.41% 22.41% 46.18%-0.28 -14.0 4
2005-09-18 @ Kilikia W 1-040.6 1264 1203 46.18% 22.41% 31.41%+0.28 +14.0 7
2005-09-18 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan L 1-257.3 1419 1054 74.48% 18.50% 7.02%+1.80 -27.8 1
2005-09-18 @ Mika W 2-157.3 1054 1419 7.02% 18.50% 74.48%-1.80 +27.8 3
2005-09-18 Banants D 2-264.9 1554 1294 67.88% 20.32% 11.80%+1.28 -4.1 7
2005-09-18 @ Pyunik D 2-264.9 1294 1554 11.80% 20.32% 67.88%-1.28 +4.1 2
2005-09-24 Pyunik W 2-159.7 1278 1550 11.90% 20.35% 67.75%-1.31 +25.5 10
2005-09-24 @ Kotayk L 1-259.7 1550 1278 67.75% 20.35% 11.90%+1.31 -25.5 7
2005-09-25 Kilikia L 0-235.3 1082 1189 25.73% 22.17% 52.10%-0.51 -22.3 3
2005-09-25 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 2-035.3 1189 1082 52.10% 22.17% 25.73%+0.51 +22.3 7
2005-09-25 Mika L 1-245.7 1298 1392 27.37% 22.26% 50.38%-0.44 -11.8 2
2005-09-25 @ Banants W 2-145.7 1392 1298 50.38% 22.26% 27.37%+0.44 +11.8 4
2005-10-01 Kilikia W 2-140.0 1524 1212 71.44% 19.46% 9.11%+1.54 +4.3 10
2005-10-01 @ Pyunik L 1-240.0 1212 1524 9.11% 19.46% 71.44%-1.54 -4.3 7
2005-10-02 Kotayk W 1-040.3 1403 1303 52.88% 22.13% 24.99%+0.50 +11.6 7
2005-10-02 @ Mika L 0-140.3 1303 1403 24.99% 22.13% 52.88%-0.50 -11.6 10
2005-10-02 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 1-034.7 1287 1059 65.39% 20.79% 13.82%+1.12 +6.8 5
2005-10-02 @ Banants L 0-134.7 1059 1287 13.82% 20.79% 65.39%-1.12 -6.8 3
2005-10-06 Kilikia D 0-051.7 1415 1207 63.76% 21.06% 15.18%+1.03 -5.2 8
2005-10-06 @ Mika D 0-051.7 1207 1415 15.18% 21.06% 63.76%-1.03 +5.2 8
2005-10-06 Kotayk W 4-142.0 1293 1292 39.98% 22.50% 37.52%+0.02 +37.1 8
2005-10-06 @ Banants L 1-442.0 1292 1293 37.52% 22.50% 39.98%-0.02 -37.1 10
2005-10-06 Pyunik L 0-131.2 1053 1528 4.35% 16.59% 79.06%-2.30 -2.1 3
2005-10-06 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 1-031.2 1528 1053 79.06% 16.59% 4.35%+2.30 +2.1 13
2005-10-16 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 1-035.2 1255 1051 63.46% 21.10% 15.44%+1.01 +7.5 13
2005-10-16 @ Kotayk L 0-135.2 1051 1255 15.44% 21.10% 63.46%-1.01 -7.5 3
2005-10-16 Banants L 0-138.8 1213 1330 24.57% 22.10% 53.33%-0.56 -11.4 8
2005-10-16 @ Kilikia W 1-038.8 1330 1213 53.33% 22.10% 24.57%+0.56 +11.4 11
2005-10-17 Mika D 1-162.3 1531 1410 55.26% 21.97% 22.76%+0.61 -3.0 14
2005-10-17 @ Pyunik D 1-162.3 1410 1531 22.76% 21.97% 55.26%-0.61 +3.0 9
2005-10-23 Kilikia W 2-036.8 1262 1201 48.07% 22.35% 29.58%+0.31 +25.1 16
2005-10-23 @ Kotayk L 0-236.8 1201 1262 29.58% 22.35% 48.07%-0.31 -25.1 8
2005-10-23 Mika L 0-326.5 1043 1413 7.37% 18.68% 73.95%-1.78 -10.0 3
2005-10-23 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 3-026.5 1413 1043 73.95% 18.68% 7.37%+1.78 +10.0 12
2005-10-23 Pyunik W 2-159.1 1342 1528 18.00% 21.49% 60.51%-0.89 +22.9 14
2005-10-23 @ Banants L 1-259.1 1528 1342 60.51% 21.49% 18.00%+0.89 -22.9 14
2005-10-30 Kotayk L 0-153.3 1505 1287 64.59% 20.93% 14.48%+1.08 -25.9 14
2005-10-30 @ Pyunik W 1-053.3 1287 1505 14.48% 20.93% 64.59%-1.08 +25.9 19
2005-10-30 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 3-138.8 1176 1033 57.65% 21.78% 20.57%+0.71 +16.0 11
2005-10-30 @ Kilikia L 1-338.8 1033 1176 20.57% 21.78% 57.65%-0.71 -16.0 3
2005-10-30 Banants W 4-142.2 1423 1365 47.67% 22.36% 29.97%+0.30 +31.0 15
2005-10-30 @ Mika L 1-442.2 1365 1423 29.97% 22.36% 47.67%-0.30 -31.0 14
2005-11-06 Mika L 0-237.1 1313 1454 22.19% 21.93% 55.89%-0.67 -19.7 19
2005-11-06 @ Kotayk W 2-037.1 1454 1313 55.89% 21.93% 22.19%+0.67 +19.7 18
2005-11-06 Pyunik L 1-434.1 1192 1479 11.08% 20.12% 68.81%-1.38 -12.7 11
2005-11-06 @ Kilikia W 4-134.1 1479 1192 68.81% 20.12% 11.08%+1.38 +12.7 17
2005-11-06 Banants L 1-432.0 1017 1334 9.57% 19.63% 70.81%-1.53 -11.0 3
2005-11-06 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 4-132.0 1334 1017 70.81% 19.63% 9.57%+1.53 +11.0 17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2005-09-18 7.02% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1054 2 @ Mika 1419 1
2 2005-09-24 11.90% @ Kotayk 1278 2 Pyunik 1550 1
3 2005-10-30 14.48% Kotayk 1287 1 @ Pyunik 1505 0
4 2005-10-23 18.00% @ Banants 1342 2 Pyunik 1528 1
5 2005-09-12 18.13% Kilikia 1164 3 @ Banants 1334 1
6 2005-07-18 18.30% @ Lernagorts Kapan 870 1 Shirak 1052 0
7 2005-04-12 20.06% Lernayin Artsakh 991 4 @ Shirak 1140 1
8 2005-07-19 21.34% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1065 4 Kilikia 1214 2
9 2005-05-05 21.91% @ Shirak 1078 3 Kilikia 1221 1
10 2005-07-24 22.17% Lernagorts Kapan 894 3 @ Lernayin Artsakh 1020 0
11 2005-09-15 26.46% @ Lernagorts Kapan 890 1 Shirak 991 0
12 2005-05-01 30.99% Lernagorts Kapan 1001 1 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1051 0
13 2005-06-27 31.80% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1012 2 Shirak 1070 1
14 2005-07-08 33.03% @ Kilikia 1198 4 Kotayk 1246 3
15 2005-05-23 35.70% Lernayin Artsakh 1005 2 @ Lernagorts Kapan 1020 0
16 2005-06-22 36.92% @ Lernayin Artsakh 1009 1 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1029 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-04-12 54.05 Lernayin Artsakh 4 991 20.06% @ Shirak 1 1140 58.21% 21.73%
2 2005-04-13 49.29 @ Kilikia 5 1165 53.92% Lernagorts Kapan 0 1056 24.01% 22.07%
3 2005-07-13 41.63 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 4 1024 52.68% @ Lernagorts Kapan 0 911 25.18% 22.14%
4 2005-09-12 39.57 Kilikia 3 1164 18.13% @ Banants 1 1334 60.36% 21.50%
5 2005-10-06 37.13 @ Banants 4 1293 39.98% Kotayk 1 1292 37.52% 22.50%
6 2005-05-05 36.97 @ Shirak 3 1078 21.91% Kilikia 1 1221 56.19% 21.90%
7 2005-06-12 35.61 @ Kotayk 3 1182 48.90% Shirak 0 1114 28.78% 22.32%
8 2005-07-03 33.67 Kilikia 5 1165 63.23% @ Lernagorts Kapan 0 949 15.63% 21.13%
9 2005-07-19 33.41 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 4 1065 21.34% Kilikia 2 1214 56.81% 21.85%
10 2005-05-23 33.01 Lernayin Artsakh 2 1005 35.70% @ Lernagorts Kapan 0 1020 41.81% 22.49%
11 2005-10-30 31.04 @ Mika 4 1423 47.67% Banants 1 1365 29.97% 22.36%
12 2005-09-18 27.83 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 2 1054 7.02% @ Mika 1 1419 74.48% 18.50%
13 2005-05-30 26.39 Kotayk 4 1155 53.24% @ Lernayin Artsakh 1 1038 24.65% 22.11%
14 2005-10-30 25.86 Kotayk 1 1287 14.48% @ Pyunik 0 1505 64.59% 20.93%
15 2005-09-24 25.53 @ Kotayk 2 1278 11.90% Pyunik 1 1550 67.75% 20.35%
16 2005-06-25 25.50 Mika 2 1383 47.44% @ Banants 0 1313 30.19% 22.37%
17 2005-10-23 25.08 @ Kotayk 2 1262 48.07% Kilikia 0 1201 29.58% 22.35%
18 2005-07-18 24.16 @ Lernagorts Kapan 1 870 18.30% Shirak 0 1052 60.18% 21.52%
19 2005-08-04 23.21 Banants 5 1313 69.43% @ Shirak 0 1017 10.60% 19.97%
20 2005-10-23 22.90 @ Banants 2 1342 18.00% Pyunik 1 1528 60.51% 21.49%
21 2005-09-25 22.34 Kilikia 2 1189 52.10% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 1082 25.73% 22.17%
22 2005-06-20 21.72 @ Banants 2 1291 53.00% Kilikia 0 1190 24.87% 22.12%
23 2005-05-29 21.30 @ Shirak 2 1093 53.60% Lernagorts Kapan 0 987 24.31% 22.09%
24 2005-09-15 20.84 @ Lernagorts Kapan 1 890 26.46% Shirak 0 991 51.33% 22.21%
25 2005-11-06 19.70 Mika 2 1454 55.89% @ Kotayk 0 1313 22.19% 21.93%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-07-18 67.6 @ Mika 4 1423 56.40% Banants 4 1292 21.71% 21.88%
2 2005-09-18 64.9 @ Pyunik 2 1554 67.88% Banants 2 1294 11.80% 20.32%
3 2005-05-18 63.5 @ Shirak 3 1110 49.77% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 3 1036 27.94% 22.28%
4 2005-10-17 62.3 @ Pyunik 1 1531 55.26% Mika 1 1410 22.76% 21.97%
5 2005-06-11 60.6 @ Mika 2 1388 64.70% Kilikia 2 1169 14.39% 20.91%
6 2005-09-24 59.7 @ Kotayk 2 1278 11.90% Pyunik 1 1550 67.75% 20.35%
7 2005-04-17 59.6 @ Kotayk 2 1135 29.08% Kilikia 2 1214 48.59% 22.33%
8 2005-10-23 59.1 @ Banants 2 1342 18.00% Pyunik 1 1528 60.51% 21.49%
9 2005-07-02 57.9 @ Mika 0 1414 25.74% Pyunik 0 1522 52.08% 22.17%
10 2005-09-18 57.3 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 2 1054 7.02% @ Mika 1 1419 74.48% 18.50%
11 2005-07-08 57.1 @ Kilikia 4 1198 33.03% Kotayk 3 1246 44.53% 22.45%
12 2005-05-01 56.9 @ Pyunik 1 1509 74.90% Kotayk 1 1136 6.75% 18.35%
13 2005-05-13 55.3 @ Mika 1 1370 64.51% Kotayk 1 1154 14.55% 20.94%
14 2005-07-02 54.9 @ Kotayk 1 1246 33.13% Banants 1 1293 44.43% 22.45%
15 2005-06-29 54.8 @ Pyunik 0 1527 66.43% Banants 0 1287 12.97% 20.61%
16 2005-05-18 54.6 @ Kotayk 1 1159 57.60% Lernagorts Kapan 1 1016 20.62% 21.78%
17 2005-09-08 54.4 @ Shirak 1 994 53.63% Lernagorts Kapan 1 888 24.29% 22.08%
18 2005-08-04 54.2 @ Kotayk 0 1238 10.28% Pyunik 0 1540 69.84% 19.87%
19 2005-07-19 53.6 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 4 1065 21.34% Kilikia 2 1214 56.81% 21.85%
20 2005-10-30 53.3 Kotayk 1 1287 14.48% @ Pyunik 0 1505 64.59% 20.93%
21 2005-06-21 52.9 @ Shirak 0 1061 4.46% Pyunik 0 1532 78.85% 16.69%
22 2005-09-12 52.2 Pyunik 2 1543 52.70% @ Mika 1 1430 25.16% 22.14%
23 2005-05-13 52.1 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 3 1021 38.97% Lernayin Artsakh 2 1026 38.53% 22.50%
24 2005-08-28 51.8 @ Kilikia 0 1157 11.49% Mika 0 1437 68.27% 20.24%
25 2005-10-06 51.7 @ Mika 0 1415 63.76% Kilikia 0 1207 15.18% 21.06%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-07-06 22.3 @ Pyunik 5 1519 84.23% Lernagorts Kapan 0 916 2.13% 13.64%
2 2005-08-27 24.8 @ Pyunik 5 1533 78.67% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 1081 4.55% 16.78%
3 2005-04-18 24.9 Pyunik 3 1504 79.98% @ Lernagorts Kapan 0 1006 3.89% 16.13%
4 2005-10-23 26.5 Mika 3 1413 73.95% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 1043 7.37% 18.68%
5 2005-08-04 26.6 Banants 5 1313 69.43% @ Shirak 0 1017 10.60% 19.97%
6 2005-05-05 27.8 Pyunik 2 1503 78.91% @ Lernayin Artsakh 0 1030 4.43% 16.66%
7 2005-07-09 27.9 @ Banants 3 1292 68.73% Lernayin Artsakh 0 1020 11.13% 20.13%
8 2005-05-24 28.3 @ Mika 3 1372 68.14% Shirak 0 1109 11.59% 20.26%
9 2005-07-03 28.4 Kilikia 5 1165 63.23% @ Lernagorts Kapan 0 949 15.63% 21.13%
10 2005-06-28 28.6 @ Mika 2 1408 75.35% Lernayin Artsakh 0 1026 6.47% 18.18%
11 2005-07-23 28.6 Pyunik 3 1523 72.39% @ Kilikia 0 1181 8.43% 19.18%
12 2005-07-09 28.7 Mika 2 1417 74.89% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 1030 6.76% 18.35%
13 2005-07-21 29.3 @ Kotayk 3 1230 63.97% Lernayin Artsakh 0 1020 15.01% 21.02%
14 2005-07-14 30.1 Kilikia 3 1214 61.29% @ Lernayin Artsakh 0 1020 17.32% 21.39%
15 2005-07-31 30.1 @ Banants 4 1307 76.87% Lernagorts Kapan 1 894 5.55% 17.58%
16 2005-07-30 30.7 @ Pyunik 4 1535 78.51% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1 1086 4.64% 16.86%
17 2005-06-12 31.1 Pyunik 1 1528 79.30% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 1046 4.23% 16.47%
18 2005-06-15 31.1 @ Mika 1 1384 77.35% Lernagorts Kapan 0 961 5.27% 17.38%
19 2005-04-13 31.2 @ Kilikia 5 1165 53.92% Lernagorts Kapan 0 1056 24.01% 22.07%
20 2005-10-06 31.2 Pyunik 1 1528 79.06% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 1053 4.35% 16.59%
21 2005-07-13 31.5 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 4 1024 52.68% @ Lernagorts Kapan 0 911 25.18% 22.14%
22 2005-07-31 31.8 Mika 2 1425 66.49% @ Kilikia 0 1169 12.92% 20.60%
23 2005-11-06 32.0 Banants 4 1334 70.81% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1 1017 9.57% 19.63%
24 2005-06-16 32.3 @ Pyunik 3 1530 81.29% Lernayin Artsakh 1 1012 3.28% 15.43%
25 2005-05-06 32.5 Mika 1 1366 72.60% @ Lernagorts Kapan 0 1020 8.28% 19.12%