Home / Leagues / Armenia / Armenian Premier League / 2004
‹ ›

2004 Armenian Premier League Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Pyunik

71 points · 7th Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ararat

7.81 points above expected

43 points · 35.19 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Shirak

15.34 points below expected

21 points · 36.34 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Pyunik Champion 28 22 5 1 71 89 25 +64 67.48 +3.52
2 Mika 28 16 7 5 55 41 23 +18 54.04 +0.96
3 Ararat 28 12 7 9 43 40 33 +7 35.19 +7.81
4 Banants 28 12 7 9 43 40 39 +1 48.61 -5.61
5 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 28 7 6 15 27 23 51 -28 20.06 +6.94
6 Kilikia 28 7 5 16 26 32 49 -17 26.94 -0.94
7 Kotayk 28 6 6 16 24 31 54 -23 22.62 +1.38
8 Shirak 28 4 9 15 21 27 49 -22 36.34 -15.34

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ararat 43 35.19 +7.81
2 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 27 20.06 +6.94
3 Pyunik 71 67.48 +3.52
4 Kotayk 24 22.62 +1.38
5 Mika 55 54.04 +0.96

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shirak 21 36.34 -15.34
2 Banants 43 48.61 -5.61
3 Kilikia 26 26.94 -0.94
4 Mika 55 54.04 +0.96
5 Kotayk 24 22.62 +1.38

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 3 May 22 – Jun 7 1 in 278
2 Pyunik 16 Jun 18 – Oct 28 1 in 67
3 Shirak 3 Sep 12 – Sep 22 1 in 47
4 Mika 6 Jun 19 – Aug 14 1 in 14
5 Kotayk 2 Aug 14 – Aug 22 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pyunik 1 Nov 11 – Nov 11 1 in 55
2 Shirak 4 Jun 6 – Jun 24 1 in 46
3 Kilikia 5 Jul 5 – Aug 29 1 in 42
4 Banants 2 Jun 19 – Jun 25 1 in 26
5 Kotayk 5 Apr 17 – May 22 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ararat 6 Apr 17 – May 31 1 in 122
2 Kilikia 4 Oct 28 – Nov 11 1 in 91
3 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 4 May 13 – Jun 7 1 in 88
4 Kotayk 4 Jul 10 – Aug 28 1 in 25
5 Mika 8 Jun 7 – Aug 14 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shirak 14 May 13 – Sep 3 1 in 749
2 Pyunik 3 Nov 2 – Nov 11 1 in 101
3 Kilikia 12 Jun 24 – Oct 4 1 in 78
4 Mika 3 Sep 28 – Oct 23 1 in 22
5 Kotayk 8 Apr 9 – Jun 7 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Pyunik 1615 71 -35 8 12.1 -4.1
Mika 1420 55 +49 10 9.5 +0.5
Ararat 1238 43 +24 10 8.0 +2.0
Banants 1269 43 -26 6 6.7 -0.7
Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 940 27 -37 1 3.8 -2.8
Kilikia 1095 26 +79 10 3.6 +6.4
Kotayk 1065 24 +19 6 4.4 +1.6
Shirak 1053 21 -58 2 5.8 -3.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARA BAN DY KIL KOT MIK PYU SHI
Ararat —
1-1-2
3.70
2-2-0
7.98
3-1-0
6.52
4-0-0
7.41
0-1-3
2.77
0-0-4
1.36
2-2-0
4.94
Banants
2-1-1
7.35
 —
3-1-0
9.34
2-0-2
9.15
3-1-0
8.88
0-1-3
4.79
0-1-3
1.89
2-2-0
7.65
Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan
0-2-2
3.08
0-1-3
1.85
 —
3-0-1
4.20
1-1-2
4.80
1-0-3
1.54
0-1-3
0.84
2-1-1
3.02
Kilikia
0-1-3
4.53
2-0-2
1.99
1-0-3
6.83
 —
1-0-3
6.39
0-1-3
2.01
1-2-1
1.06
2-1-1
4.49
Kotayk
0-0-4
3.64
0-1-3
2.24
2-1-1
6.23
3-0-1
4.63
 —
0-2-2
1.80
0-0-4
0.98
1-2-1
3.61
Mika
3-1-0
8.30
3-1-0
6.23
3-0-1
9.67
3-1-0
9.13
2-2-0
9.37
 —
0-1-3
3.16
2-1-1
8.76
Pyunik
4-0-0
9.88
3-1-0
9.26
3-1-0
10.56
1-2-1
10.27
4-0-0
10.38
3-1-0
7.90
 —
4-0-0
9.71
Shirak
0-2-2
6.11
0-2-2
3.40
1-1-2
8.05
1-1-2
6.55
1-2-1
7.45
1-1-2
2.34
0-0-4
1.53
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.78 +7.5
Allowed 0.87 -13.5
Differential 0.94 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.46%10.27%4.91%2.23%1.79%0.45%24.11%
110.27%14.29%6.70%4.02%1.34%2.68%39.29%
24.91%6.70%3.57%3.12%—0.45%18.75%
32.23%4.02%3.12%0.89%0.45%—10.71%
41.79%1.34%—0.45%——3.57%
5+0.45%2.68%0.45%———3.57%
Total24.11%39.29%18.75%10.71%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.44 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.36 2.03
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%—7.14%———17.86%
114.29%10.71%7.14%10.71%3.57%—46.43%
214.29%—3.57%3.57%——21.43%
33.57%—3.57%———7.14%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total42.86%17.86%21.43%14.29%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.18 +0.25
SD 1.20 1.25 1.78
CV 0.84 1.06 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%—3.57%7.14%—17.86%
13.57%25.00%3.57%3.57%——35.71%
27.14%21.43%—7.14%——35.71%
33.57%—3.57%———7.14%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total17.86%53.57%7.14%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.39 +0.04
SD 1.00 1.17 1.84
CV 0.70 0.84 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%14.29%7.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%39.29%
114.29%14.29%7.14%—3.57%3.57%42.86%
2—7.14%3.57%3.57%——14.29%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total17.86%35.71%21.43%10.71%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 1.82 -1.00
SD 0.82 1.66 1.94
CV 1.00 0.91 —
Max 3 7 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%21.43%10.71%———35.71%
110.71%10.71%3.57%3.57%—3.57%32.14%
2—3.57%3.57%10.71%—3.57%21.43%
3——3.57%———3.57%
43.57%——3.57%——7.14%
5+———————
Total17.86%35.71%21.43%17.86%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.75 -0.61
SD 1.18 1.58 1.71
CV 1.03 0.90 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%14.29%10.71%———28.57%
1—14.29%14.29%7.14%—10.71%46.43%
27.14%3.57%————10.71%
3—3.57%7.14%3.57%——14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%35.71%32.14%10.71%—10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.93 -0.82
SD 0.99 1.56 1.83
CV 0.90 0.81 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%—3.57%——17.86%
121.43%14.29%3.57%3.57%——42.86%
27.14%14.29%3.57%———25.00%
3—7.14%————7.14%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total39.29%46.43%7.14%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 0.82 +0.64
SD 1.20 0.86 1.52
CV 0.82 1.05 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%————3.57%
110.71%7.14%————17.86%
2—3.57%10.71%———14.29%
310.71%17.86%3.57%———32.14%
43.57%7.14%————10.71%
5+3.57%14.29%3.57%———21.43%
Total28.57%53.57%17.86%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.18 0.89 +2.29
SD 1.91 0.69 1.98
CV 0.60 0.77 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%3.57%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
17.14%17.86%14.29%3.57%3.57%3.57%50.00%
23.57%—3.57%———7.14%
3—3.57%—3.57%3.57%—10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total17.86%35.71%21.43%10.71%10.71%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 1.75 -0.79
SD 0.92 1.48 1.60
CV 0.96 0.85 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Pyunik 1615 71 67.48 +3.52 77.0% 52 59 64 67 71 75 80
Mika 1420 55 54.04 +0.96 56.0% 38 44 49 53 59 64 68
Banants 1269 43 48.61 -5.61 19.0% 34 39 44 49 53 59 63
Ararat 1238 43 35.19 +7.81 90.0% 17 22 31 36 40 45 52
Kilikia 1095 26 26.94 -0.94 53.0% 17 18 22 26 31 37 41
Kotayk 1065 24 22.62 +1.38 64.0% 11 13 19 22 28 31 36
Shirak 1053 21 36.34 -15.34 1.0% 18 26 32 37 40 46 49
Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 940 27 20.06 +6.94 91.0% 7 11 16 19 24 29 36

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.29%
Strong Edge
45.54%23.21%31.25%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 49.98 Elo pts.
253 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.40 goals
Neutral
-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.2
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
93%
Pyunik, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.57/gm
Runaway
00.440.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.69 * Some Luck: 4.69 to 7.03 * Lucky: 7.03 to 9.38 * Wild Swing: 9.38 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.44 * Close: 0.44 to 0.66 * Off: 0.66 to 0.88 * Way Off: 0.88 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.00 points
Some Luck
05.8615
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.25
Way Off
00.551.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
91.00%
Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
Shirak
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Even
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 221.51
2.50
Moderate Separation
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
80%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
98%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Frequent
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Occasional
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.41
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.49
Some Carryover
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
As Expected
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.07
Borderline
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.75
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.096
Well Within Noise
00.1440.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Pyunik93.00%7.00%——————
Mika6.00%68.00%23.00%3.00%————
Ararat——7.00%38.00%36.00%15.00%3.00%1.00%
Banants1.00%24.00%62.00%10.00%3.00%———
Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan———1.00%2.00%13.00%28.00%56.00%
Kilikia——1.00%3.00%14.00%43.00%30.00%9.00%
Kotayk———1.00%12.00%17.00%37.00%33.00%
Shirak—1.00%7.00%44.00%33.00%12.00%2.00%1.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Ararat 100%
Banants 100%
Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 100%
Kilikia 100%
Kotayk 100%
Mika 100%
Pyunik 100%
Shirak 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2004-04-08 Pyunik L 1-430.4 1026 1521 4.69% 18.71% 76.60%-1.76 -6.6 0
2004-04-08 @ Ararat W 4-130.4 1521 1026 76.60% 18.71% 4.69%+1.76 +6.6 3
2004-04-08 Shirak D 1-154.9 1436 1261 63.38% 22.89% 13.73%+0.89 -5.8 1
2004-04-08 @ Banants D 1-154.9 1261 1436 13.73% 22.89% 63.38%-0.89 +5.8 1
2004-04-09 Kilikia W 1-032.5 1365 1113 68.93% 21.62% 9.45%+1.20 +5.9 3
2004-04-09 @ Mika L 0-132.5 1113 1365 9.45% 21.62% 68.93%-1.20 -5.9 0
2004-04-09 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan D 1-153.0 1070 902 62.77% 23.00% 14.24%+0.86 -5.7 1
2004-04-09 @ Kotayk D 1-153.0 902 1070 14.24% 23.00% 62.77%-0.86 +5.7 1
2004-04-17 Ararat D 2-258.8 1267 1020 68.60% 21.72% 9.69%+1.18 -5.3 2
2004-04-17 @ Shirak D 2-258.8 1020 1267 9.69% 21.72% 68.60%-1.18 +5.3 1
2004-04-17 Kotayk W 1-037.8 1107 1064 50.11% 24.32% 25.57%+0.37 +14.6 3
2004-04-17 @ Kilikia L 0-137.8 1064 1107 25.57% 24.32% 50.11%-0.37 -14.6 1
2004-04-17 Mika W 3-143.0 1527 1371 61.72% 23.17% 15.12%+0.81 +15.1 6
2004-04-17 @ Pyunik L 1-343.0 1371 1527 15.12% 23.17% 61.72%-0.81 -15.2 3
2004-04-17 Banants D 1-154.6 907 1431 4.07% 18.07% 77.86%-1.87 +9.0 2
2004-04-17 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan D 1-154.6 1431 907 77.86% 18.07% 4.07%+1.87 -9.0 2
2004-04-24 Kilikia W 1-031.9 1422 1122 71.79% 20.72% 7.49%+1.38 +4.7 5
2004-04-24 @ Banants L 0-131.9 1122 1422 7.49% 20.72% 71.79%-1.38 -4.7 3
2004-04-24 Mika L 1-335.7 1050 1356 11.80% 22.41% 65.79%-1.02 -12.0 1
2004-04-24 @ Kotayk W 3-135.7 1356 1050 65.79% 22.41% 11.80%+1.02 +12.0 6
2004-04-24 Pyunik L 0-137.4 1261 1542 13.38% 22.81% 63.81%-0.91 -8.3 2
2004-04-24 @ Shirak W 1-037.4 1542 1261 63.81% 22.81% 13.38%+0.91 +8.3 9
2004-04-24 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan D 1-152.8 1025 916 57.31% 23.75% 18.95%+0.63 -4.4 2
2004-04-24 @ Ararat D 1-152.8 916 1025 18.95% 23.75% 57.31%-0.63 +4.4 3
2004-05-01 Ararat L 0-243.8 1117 1021 56.12% 23.87% 20.01%+0.58 -52.2 3
2004-05-01 @ Kilikia W 2-043.8 1021 1117 20.01% 23.87% 56.12%-0.58 +52.2 5
2004-05-01 Kotayk W 3-131.6 1551 1038 81.37% 16.03% 2.61%+2.23 +2.4 12
2004-05-01 @ Pyunik L 1-331.6 1038 1551 2.61% 16.03% 81.37%-2.23 -2.4 1
2004-05-01 Shirak L 0-132.5 921 1253 10.41% 21.98% 67.61%-1.12 -6.5 3
2004-05-01 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 1-032.5 1253 921 67.61% 21.98% 10.41%+1.12 +6.5 5
2004-05-01 Banants W 2-150.4 1368 1426 36.54% 24.62% 38.83%-0.03 +19.1 9
2004-05-01 @ Mika L 1-250.4 1426 1368 38.83% 24.62% 36.54%+0.03 -19.1 5
2004-05-13 Kilikia L 3-462.0 1260 1065 64.87% 22.60% 12.53%+0.97 -27.8 5
2004-05-13 @ Shirak W 4-362.0 1065 1260 12.53% 22.60% 64.87%-0.97 +27.8 6
2004-05-13 Kotayk W 2-135.5 1407 1035 75.56% 19.20% 5.24%+1.67 +3.0 8
2004-05-13 @ Banants L 1-235.5 1035 1407 5.24% 19.20% 75.56%-1.67 -3.0 1
2004-05-13 Mika D 1-153.6 1073 1387 11.35% 22.28% 66.37%-1.05 +6.6 6
2004-05-13 @ Ararat D 1-153.6 1387 1073 66.37% 22.28% 11.35%+1.05 -6.6 10
2004-05-13 Pyunik D 2-261.0 914 1553 2.29% 15.44% 82.27%-2.33 +7.1 4
2004-05-13 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan D 2-261.0 1553 914 82.27% 15.44% 2.29%+2.33 -7.1 13
2004-05-22 Ararat L 0-238.6 1032 1079 38.09% 24.63% 37.28%+0.01 -37.6 1
2004-05-22 @ Kotayk W 2-038.6 1079 1032 37.28% 24.63% 38.09%-0.01 +37.6 9
2004-05-22 Shirak W 2-140.6 1381 1232 61.12% 23.26% 15.62%+0.79 +9.0 13
2004-05-22 @ Mika L 1-240.6 1232 1381 15.62% 23.26% 61.12%-0.79 -9.0 5
2004-05-22 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan L 2-358.6 1093 921 63.05% 22.95% 14.00%+0.88 -27.7 6
2004-05-22 @ Kilikia W 3-258.6 921 1093 14.00% 22.95% 63.05%-0.88 +27.7 7
2004-05-31 Kotayk D 1-153.3 1223 995 67.34% 22.05% 10.62%+1.10 -6.8 6
2004-05-31 @ Shirak D 1-153.3 995 1223 10.62% 22.05% 67.34%-1.10 +6.8 2
2004-05-31 Banants W 1-049.6 1117 1410 12.60% 22.62% 64.78%-0.96 +31.8 12
2004-05-31 @ Ararat L 0-149.6 1410 1117 64.78% 22.62% 12.60%+0.96 -31.8 8
2004-06-01 Mika W 2-156.2 949 1390 6.11% 19.87% 74.02%-1.55 +33.8 10
2004-06-01 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan L 1-256.2 1390 949 74.02% 19.87% 6.11%+1.55 -33.8 13
2004-06-01 Pyunik D 1-155.2 1065 1546 5.02% 19.02% 75.96%-1.70 +8.6 7
2004-06-01 @ Kilikia D 1-155.2 1546 1065 75.96% 19.02% 5.02%+1.70 -8.6 14
2004-06-06 Ararat W 3-134.0 1537 1149 76.33% 18.84% 4.83%+1.74 +4.8 17
2004-06-06 @ Pyunik L 1-334.0 1149 1537 4.83% 18.84% 76.33%-1.74 -4.8 12
2004-06-06 Banants L 1-243.1 1216 1378 23.46% 24.18% 52.36%-0.44 -12.8 6
2004-06-06 @ Shirak W 2-143.1 1378 1216 52.36% 24.18% 23.46%+0.44 +12.8 11
2004-06-07 Kotayk W 2-145.2 983 1001 42.12% 24.59% 33.29%+0.12 +17.0 13
2004-06-07 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan L 1-245.2 1001 983 33.29% 24.59% 42.12%-0.12 -17.0 2
2004-06-07 Mika L 0-133.9 1074 1356 13.30% 22.79% 63.91%-0.92 -8.2 7
2004-06-07 @ Kilikia W 1-033.9 1356 1074 63.91% 22.79% 13.30%+0.92 +8.2 16
2004-06-12 Shirak W 2-039.0 1144 1203 36.36% 24.62% 39.02%-0.04 +38.3 15
2004-06-12 @ Ararat L 0-239.0 1203 1144 39.02% 24.62% 36.36%+0.04 -38.3 6
2004-06-12 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 2-027.1 1391 1000 76.46% 18.78% 4.76%+1.75 +5.5 14
2004-06-12 @ Banants L 0-227.1 1000 1391 4.76% 18.78% 76.46%-1.75 -5.4 13
2004-06-13 Kilikia W 2-039.8 984 1066 33.31% 24.59% 42.10%-0.12 +40.7 5
2004-06-13 @ Kotayk L 0-239.8 1066 984 42.10% 24.59% 33.31%+0.12 -40.7 7
2004-06-13 Pyunik D 2-264.7 1364 1542 21.86% 24.05% 54.09%-0.51 +2.7 17
2004-06-13 @ Mika D 2-264.7 1542 1364 54.09% 24.05% 21.86%+0.51 -2.7 18
2004-06-18 Ararat D 0-048.5 994 1182 20.86% 23.96% 55.18%-0.55 +4.3 14
2004-06-18 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan D 0-048.5 1182 994 55.18% 23.96% 20.86%+0.55 -4.3 16
2004-06-18 Shirak W 4-026.4 1539 1165 75.67% 19.15% 5.18%+1.68 +11.3 21
2004-06-18 @ Pyunik L 0-426.4 1165 1539 5.18% 19.15% 75.67%-1.68 -11.3 6
2004-06-19 Kotayk W 2-135.8 1367 1025 74.08% 19.85% 6.08%+1.55 +3.5 20
2004-06-19 @ Mika L 1-235.8 1025 1367 6.08% 19.85% 74.08%-1.55 -3.5 5
2004-06-19 Banants W 4-044.8 1025 1397 8.58% 21.26% 70.16%-1.27 +122.4 10
2004-06-19 @ Kilikia L 0-444.8 1397 1025 70.16% 21.26% 8.58%+1.27 -122.4 14
2004-06-24 Kilikia W 3-248.3 1178 1147 48.55% 24.40% 27.05%+0.32 +13.7 19
2004-06-24 @ Ararat L 2-348.3 1147 1178 27.05% 24.40% 48.55%-0.32 -13.7 10
2004-06-24 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan L 0-148.3 1154 999 61.64% 23.18% 15.18%+0.81 -30.3 6
2004-06-24 @ Shirak W 1-048.3 999 1154 15.18% 23.18% 61.64%-0.81 +30.3 17
2004-06-25 Mika L 0-140.8 1274 1370 31.33% 24.55% 44.12%-0.18 -17.2 14
2004-06-25 @ Banants W 1-040.8 1370 1274 44.12% 24.55% 31.33%+0.18 +17.2 23
2004-06-25 Pyunik L 1-627.6 1021 1551 3.95% 17.93% 78.12%-1.90 -8.6 5
2004-06-25 @ Kotayk W 6-127.6 1551 1021 78.12% 17.93% 3.95%+1.90 +8.6 24
2004-06-30 Shirak D 1-152.6 1134 1123 46.00% 24.50% 29.51%+0.24 -1.8 11
2004-06-30 @ Kilikia D 1-152.6 1123 1134 29.51% 24.50% 46.00%-0.24 +1.8 7
2004-06-30 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 3-024.1 1559 1029 81.98% 15.63% 2.39%+2.30 +3.7 27
2004-06-30 @ Pyunik L 0-324.1 1029 1559 2.39% 15.63% 81.98%-2.30 -3.7 17
2004-07-01 Ararat W 3-136.5 1388 1192 64.99% 22.58% 12.43%+0.97 +12.6 26
2004-07-01 @ Mika L 1-336.5 1192 1388 12.43% 22.58% 64.99%-0.97 -12.6 19
2004-07-01 Banants L 1-239.7 1013 1257 15.97% 23.32% 60.70%-0.77 -9.2 5
2004-07-01 @ Kotayk W 2-139.7 1257 1013 60.70% 23.32% 15.97%+0.77 +9.2 17
2004-07-05 Kilikia W 1-043.8 1025 1132 29.97% 24.51% 45.52%-0.22 +23.0 20
2004-07-05 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan L 0-143.8 1132 1025 45.52% 24.51% 29.97%+0.22 -23.0 11
2004-07-05 Kotayk W 5-132.2 1179 1004 63.36% 22.89% 13.75%+0.89 +25.3 22
2004-07-05 @ Ararat L 1-532.2 1004 1179 13.75% 22.89% 63.36%-0.89 -25.3 5
2004-07-05 Pyunik L 1-340.0 1266 1563 12.39% 22.57% 65.04%-0.98 -12.6 17
2004-07-05 @ Banants W 3-140.0 1563 1266 65.04% 22.57% 12.39%+0.98 +12.6 30
2004-07-06 Mika L 0-134.3 1125 1400 13.75% 22.89% 63.35%-0.89 -8.5 7
2004-07-06 @ Shirak W 1-034.3 1400 1125 63.35% 22.89% 13.75%+0.89 +8.5 29
2004-07-08 Kilikia W 7-229.3 1576 1109 79.63% 17.09% 3.28%+2.04 +5.9 33
2004-07-08 @ Pyunik L 2-729.3 1109 1576 3.28% 17.09% 79.63%-2.04 -5.9 11
2004-07-09 Ararat W 3-247.8 1254 1204 50.85% 24.28% 24.88%+0.39 +12.8 20
2004-07-09 @ Banants L 2-347.8 1204 1254 24.88% 24.28% 50.85%-0.39 -12.8 22
2004-07-10 Shirak D 3-361.9 978 1117 26.15% 24.35% 49.50%-0.35 +1.6 6
2004-07-10 @ Kotayk D 3-361.9 1117 978 49.50% 24.35% 26.15%+0.35 -1.6 8
2004-07-18 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 1-030.6 1409 1048 75.01% 19.45% 5.54%+1.62 +3.4 32
2004-07-18 @ Mika L 0-130.6 1048 1409 5.54% 19.45% 75.01%-1.62 -3.4 20
2004-08-08 Banants W 3-030.9 1581 1266 72.65% 20.41% 6.94%+1.44 +11.8 36
2004-08-08 @ Pyunik L 0-330.9 1266 1581 6.94% 20.41% 72.65%-1.44 -11.8 20
2004-08-13 Pyunik L 1-239.6 1192 1593 7.40% 20.67% 71.92%-1.39 -4.3 22
2004-08-13 @ Ararat W 2-139.6 1593 1192 71.92% 20.67% 7.40%+1.39 +4.4 39
2004-08-13 Shirak D 1-153.1 1255 1115 60.29% 23.38% 16.33%+0.75 -5.1 21
2004-08-13 @ Banants D 1-153.1 1115 1255 16.33% 23.38% 60.29%-0.75 +5.1 9
2004-08-14 Kilikia W 5-129.9 1412 1103 72.33% 20.53% 7.14%+1.42 +13.3 35
2004-08-14 @ Mika L 1-529.9 1103 1412 7.14% 20.53% 72.33%-1.42 -13.3 11
2004-08-14 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 2-147.2 980 1045 35.57% 24.62% 39.81%-0.06 +19.5 9
2004-08-14 @ Kotayk L 1-247.2 1045 980 39.81% 24.62% 35.57%+0.06 -19.5 20
2004-08-22 Ararat D 0-048.4 1120 1187 35.26% 24.62% 40.13%-0.07 +0.6 10
2004-08-22 @ Shirak D 0-048.4 1187 1120 40.13% 24.62% 35.26%+0.07 -0.6 23
2004-08-22 Kotayk L 2-356.6 1090 999 55.45% 23.93% 20.62%+0.56 -24.5 11
2004-08-22 @ Kilikia W 3-256.6 999 1090 20.62% 23.93% 55.45%-0.56 +24.5 12
2004-08-23 Mika W 3-039.7 1598 1425 63.10% 22.94% 13.96%+0.88 +23.6 42
2004-08-23 @ Pyunik L 0-339.7 1425 1598 13.96% 22.94% 63.10%-0.88 -23.6 35
2004-08-23 Banants L 0-330.2 1025 1250 17.58% 23.57% 58.85%-0.69 -29.1 20
2004-08-23 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 3-030.2 1250 1025 58.85% 23.57% 17.58%+0.69 +29.1 24
2004-08-28 Mika D 0-049.6 1024 1402 8.32% 21.14% 70.54%-1.30 +8.4 13
2004-08-28 @ Kotayk D 0-049.6 1402 1024 70.54% 21.14% 8.32%+1.30 -8.4 36
2004-08-28 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 2-030.5 1187 996 64.55% 22.67% 12.78%+0.95 +15.0 26
2004-08-28 @ Ararat L 0-230.5 996 1187 12.78% 22.67% 64.55%-0.95 -15.0 20
2004-08-29 Kilikia W 2-138.1 1279 1065 66.28% 22.30% 11.42%+1.04 +6.7 27
2004-08-29 @ Banants L 1-238.1 1065 1279 11.42% 22.30% 66.28%-1.04 -6.7 11
2004-08-29 Pyunik L 1-432.2 1121 1621 4.55% 18.57% 76.88%-1.78 -6.3 10
2004-08-29 @ Shirak W 4-132.2 1621 1121 76.88% 18.57% 4.55%+1.78 +6.4 45
2004-09-02 Kotayk W 1-029.0 1628 1032 84.12% 14.16% 1.72%+2.55 +0.9 48
2004-09-02 @ Pyunik L 0-129.0 1032 1628 1.72% 14.16% 84.12%-2.55 -0.9 13
2004-09-03 Ararat D 0-048.5 1059 1202 25.60% 24.32% 50.08%-0.37 +3.0 12
2004-09-03 @ Kilikia D 0-048.5 1202 1059 50.08% 24.32% 25.60%+0.37 -3.0 27
2004-09-03 Shirak W 1-044.8 981 1114 26.76% 24.38% 48.86%-0.33 +24.4 23
2004-09-03 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan L 0-144.8 1114 981 48.86% 24.38% 26.76%+0.33 -24.4 10
2004-09-12 Kilikia W 3-140.7 1090 1062 48.27% 24.41% 27.33%+0.31 +25.2 13
2004-09-12 @ Shirak L 1-340.7 1062 1090 27.33% 24.41% 48.27%-0.31 -25.2 12
2004-09-12 Mika L 0-233.9 1199 1393 20.20% 23.89% 55.91%-0.57 -22.6 27
2004-09-12 @ Ararat W 2-033.9 1393 1199 55.91% 23.89% 20.20%+0.57 +22.6 39
2004-09-13 Kotayk D 1-153.5 1285 1031 69.05% 21.59% 9.36%+1.20 -7.2 28
2004-09-13 @ Banants D 1-153.5 1031 1285 9.36% 21.59% 69.05%-1.20 +7.2 14
2004-09-13 Pyunik L 1-527.8 1006 1629 2.48% 15.80% 81.72%-2.27 -4.2 23
2004-09-13 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 5-127.8 1629 1006 81.72% 15.80% 2.48%+2.27 +4.2 51
2004-09-17 Ararat L 0-138.0 1039 1176 26.24% 24.35% 49.41%-0.35 -14.9 14
2004-09-17 @ Kotayk W 1-038.0 1176 1039 49.41% 24.35% 26.24%+0.35 +14.9 30
2004-09-17 Shirak L 0-151.1 1416 1115 71.88% 20.69% 7.43%+1.39 -35.0 39
2004-09-17 @ Mika W 1-051.1 1115 1416 7.43% 20.69% 71.88%-1.39 +35.0 16
2004-09-17 Banants W 3-247.1 1633 1278 74.71% 19.58% 5.71%+1.60 +3.1 54
2004-09-17 @ Pyunik L 2-347.1 1278 1633 5.71% 19.58% 74.71%-1.60 -3.2 28
2004-09-18 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan L 0-144.8 1036 1002 49.10% 24.37% 26.53%+0.34 -24.5 12
2004-09-18 @ Kilikia W 1-044.8 1002 1036 26.53% 24.37% 49.10%-0.34 +24.5 26
2004-09-22 Kotayk W 2-032.1 1150 1024 59.05% 23.54% 17.41%+0.70 +19.9 19
2004-09-22 @ Shirak L 0-232.1 1024 1150 17.41% 23.54% 59.05%-0.70 -19.9 14
2004-09-22 Banants L 1-245.5 1191 1275 32.92% 24.58% 42.49%-0.14 -16.8 30
2004-09-22 @ Ararat W 2-145.5 1275 1191 42.49% 24.58% 32.92%+0.14 +16.8 31
2004-09-23 Mika L 1-237.3 1026 1381 9.31% 21.57% 69.12%-1.21 -5.5 26
2004-09-23 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 2-137.3 1381 1026 69.12% 21.57% 9.31%+1.21 +5.5 42
2004-09-27 Ararat W 3-135.2 1636 1174 79.44% 17.19% 3.36%+2.03 +3.2 57
2004-09-27 @ Pyunik L 1-335.2 1174 1636 3.36% 17.19% 79.44%-2.03 -3.2 30
2004-09-27 Banants L 1-243.9 1170 1292 28.06% 24.44% 47.50%-0.29 -14.8 19
2004-09-27 @ Shirak W 2-143.9 1292 1170 47.50% 24.44% 28.06%+0.29 +14.8 34
2004-09-28 Mika D 1-153.8 1012 1387 8.46% 21.20% 70.34%-1.29 +7.5 13
2004-09-28 @ Kilikia D 1-153.8 1387 1012 70.34% 21.20% 8.46%+1.29 -7.5 43
2004-10-03 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 4-026.0 1307 1021 71.03% 20.98% 7.99%+1.33 +17.9 37
2004-10-03 @ Banants L 0-426.0 1021 1307 7.99% 20.98% 71.03%-1.33 -17.9 26
2004-10-04 Kilikia W 2-037.1 1004 1019 42.52% 24.58% 32.90%+0.14 +33.6 17
2004-10-04 @ Kotayk L 0-237.1 1019 1004 32.90% 24.58% 42.52%-0.14 -33.6 13
2004-10-04 Shirak W 3-033.9 1171 1155 46.70% 24.47% 28.83%+0.26 +44.1 33
2004-10-04 @ Ararat L 0-333.9 1155 1171 28.83% 24.47% 46.70%-0.26 -44.0 19
2004-10-17 Ararat L 1-435.5 1003 1215 18.61% 23.71% 57.68%-0.64 -25.8 26
2004-10-17 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 4-135.5 1215 1003 57.68% 23.71% 18.61%+0.64 +25.8 36
2004-10-18 Kotayk D 1-154.2 1379 1037 74.06% 19.85% 6.08%+1.55 -8.3 44
2004-10-18 @ Mika D 1-154.2 1037 1379 6.08% 19.85% 74.06%-1.55 +8.3 18
2004-10-18 Shirak W 6-128.4 1639 1111 81.91% 15.68% 2.41%+2.29 +5.0 60
2004-10-18 @ Pyunik L 1-628.4 1111 1639 2.41% 15.68% 81.91%-2.29 -5.0 19
2004-10-18 Banants W 3-259.9 986 1325 10.08% 21.86% 68.06%-1.14 +29.8 16
2004-10-18 @ Kilikia L 2-359.9 1325 986 68.06% 21.86% 10.08%+1.14 -29.8 37
2004-10-23 Kilikia W 1-032.7 1241 1016 67.12% 22.10% 10.78%+1.09 +6.7 39
2004-10-23 @ Ararat L 0-132.7 1016 1241 10.78% 22.10% 67.12%-1.09 -6.7 16
2004-10-23 Mika D 1-154.0 1295 1371 34.04% 24.60% 41.36%-0.10 +0.8 38
2004-10-23 @ Banants D 1-154.0 1371 1295 41.36% 24.60% 34.04%+0.10 -0.8 45
2004-10-23 Pyunik L 1-627.8 1046 1644 2.80% 16.36% 80.84%-2.17 -5.9 18
2004-10-23 @ Kotayk W 6-127.8 1644 1046 80.84% 16.36% 2.80%+2.17 +5.9 63
2004-10-23 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan D 1-152.9 1106 977 59.30% 23.51% 17.19%+0.71 -4.8 20
2004-10-23 @ Shirak D 1-152.9 977 1106 17.19% 23.51% 59.30%-0.71 +4.9 27
2004-10-28 Ararat W 2-033.3 1370 1247 58.69% 23.59% 17.72%+0.68 +20.2 48
2004-10-28 @ Mika L 0-233.3 1247 1370 17.72% 23.59% 58.69%-0.68 -20.2 39
2004-10-28 Shirak W 2-148.3 1009 1101 31.84% 24.56% 43.60%-0.17 +20.9 19
2004-10-28 @ Kilikia L 1-248.3 1101 1009 43.60% 24.56% 31.84%+0.17 -20.9 20
2004-10-28 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 7-024.0 1650 982 86.24% 12.57% 1.19%+2.84 +3.8 66
2004-10-28 @ Pyunik L 0-724.0 982 1650 1.19% 12.57% 86.24%-2.84 -3.8 27
2004-10-28 Banants L 0-231.4 1040 1296 15.11% 23.17% 61.72%-0.81 -17.5 18
2004-10-28 @ Kotayk W 2-031.4 1296 1040 61.72% 23.17% 15.11%+0.81 +17.5 41
2004-11-02 Kilikia L 0-141.4 978 1030 37.43% 24.63% 37.94%-0.01 -19.7 27
2004-11-02 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 1-041.4 1030 978 37.94% 24.63% 37.43%+0.01 +19.7 22
2004-11-02 Kotayk W 1-033.1 1227 1022 65.66% 22.44% 11.90%+1.01 +7.4 42
2004-11-02 @ Ararat L 0-133.1 1022 1227 11.90% 22.44% 65.66%-1.01 -7.4 18
2004-11-02 Mika D 0-049.4 1080 1390 11.61% 22.35% 66.04%-1.03 +7.2 21
2004-11-02 @ Shirak D 0-049.4 1390 1080 66.04% 22.35% 11.61%+1.03 -7.2 49
2004-11-02 Pyunik D 1-162.1 1313 1654 9.99% 21.83% 68.18%-1.15 +7.0 42
2004-11-02 @ Banants D 1-162.1 1654 1313 68.18% 21.83% 9.99%+1.15 -7.0 67
2004-11-07 Ararat D 1-153.4 1320 1235 54.91% 23.98% 21.11%+0.54 -3.8 43
2004-11-07 @ Banants D 1-153.4 1235 1320 21.11% 23.98% 54.91%-0.54 +3.8 43
2004-11-07 Pyunik D 2-262.2 1049 1647 2.81% 16.38% 80.80%-2.17 +7.0 23
2004-11-07 @ Kilikia D 2-262.2 1647 1049 80.80% 16.38% 2.81%+2.17 -7.0 68
2004-11-07 Shirak W 3-144.8 1015 1087 34.51% 24.61% 40.88%-0.09 +34.4 21
2004-11-07 @ Kotayk L 1-344.8 1087 1015 40.88% 24.61% 34.51%+0.09 -34.4 21
2004-11-07 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 1-029.5 1383 958 77.92% 18.04% 4.04%+1.88 +2.4 52
2004-11-07 @ Mika L 0-129.5 958 1383 4.04% 18.04% 77.92%-1.88 -2.4 27
2004-11-11 Kilikia L 0-154.1 1640 1056 83.74% 14.43% 1.83%+2.51 -38.6 68
2004-11-11 @ Pyunik W 1-054.1 1056 1640 1.83% 14.43% 83.74%-2.51 +38.6 26
2004-11-11 Kotayk L 2-349.6 956 1049 31.69% 24.56% 43.76%-0.17 -15.5 27
2004-11-11 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan W 3-249.6 1049 956 43.76% 24.56% 31.69%+0.17 +15.5 24
2004-11-11 Banants W 4-033.1 1385 1316 53.12% 24.12% 22.76%+0.47 +47.4 55
2004-11-11 @ Mika L 0-433.1 1316 1385 22.76% 24.12% 53.12%-0.47 -47.5 43
2004-11-21 Pyunik L 0-148.1 1433 1601 22.82% 24.13% 53.05%-0.47 -13.3 55
2004-11-21 @ Mika W 1-048.1 1601 1433 53.05% 24.13% 22.82%+0.47 +13.3 71

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2004-11-11 1.83% Kilikia 1056 1 @ Pyunik 1640 0
2 2004-06-01 6.11% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 949 2 Mika 1390 1
3 2004-09-17 7.43% Shirak 1115 1 @ Mika 1416 0
4 2004-06-19 8.58% @ Kilikia 1025 4 Banants 1397 0
5 2004-10-18 10.08% @ Kilikia 986 3 Banants 1325 2
6 2004-05-13 12.53% Kilikia 1065 4 @ Shirak 1260 3
7 2004-05-31 12.60% @ Ararat 1117 1 Banants 1410 0
8 2004-05-22 14.00% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 921 3 @ Kilikia 1093 2
9 2004-06-24 15.18% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 999 1 @ Shirak 1154 0
10 2004-05-01 20.01% Ararat 1021 2 @ Kilikia 1117 0
11 2004-08-22 20.62% Kotayk 999 3 @ Kilikia 1090 2
12 2004-09-18 26.53% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1002 1 @ Kilikia 1036 0
13 2004-09-03 26.76% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 981 1 Shirak 1114 0
14 2004-07-05 29.97% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1025 1 Kilikia 1132 0
15 2004-10-28 31.84% @ Kilikia 1009 2 Shirak 1101 1
16 2004-06-13 33.31% @ Kotayk 984 2 Kilikia 1066 0
17 2004-11-07 34.51% @ Kotayk 1015 3 Shirak 1087 1
18 2004-08-14 35.57% @ Kotayk 980 2 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1045 1
19 2004-06-12 36.36% @ Ararat 1144 2 Shirak 1203 0
20 2004-05-01 36.54% @ Mika 1368 2 Banants 1426 1
21 2004-05-22 37.28% Ararat 1079 2 @ Kotayk 1032 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-06-19 122.41 @ Kilikia 4 1025 8.58% Banants 0 1397 70.16% 21.26%
2 2004-05-01 52.22 Ararat 2 1021 20.01% @ Kilikia 0 1117 56.12% 23.87%
3 2004-11-11 47.45 @ Mika 4 1385 53.12% Banants 0 1316 22.76% 24.12%
4 2004-10-04 44.05 @ Ararat 3 1171 46.70% Shirak 0 1155 28.83% 24.47%
5 2004-06-13 40.68 @ Kotayk 2 984 33.31% Kilikia 0 1066 42.10% 24.59%
6 2004-11-11 38.58 Kilikia 1 1056 1.83% @ Pyunik 0 1640 83.74% 14.43%
7 2004-06-12 38.33 @ Ararat 2 1144 36.36% Shirak 0 1203 39.02% 24.62%
8 2004-05-22 37.63 Ararat 2 1079 37.28% @ Kotayk 0 1032 38.09% 24.63%
9 2004-09-17 34.95 Shirak 1 1115 7.43% @ Mika 0 1416 71.88% 20.69%
10 2004-11-07 34.42 @ Kotayk 3 1015 34.51% Shirak 1 1087 40.88% 24.61%
11 2004-06-01 33.76 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 2 949 6.11% Mika 1 1390 74.02% 19.87%
12 2004-10-04 33.64 @ Kotayk 2 1004 42.52% Kilikia 0 1019 32.90% 24.58%
13 2004-05-31 31.75 @ Ararat 1 1117 12.60% Banants 0 1410 64.78% 22.62%
14 2004-06-24 30.28 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1 999 15.18% @ Shirak 0 1154 61.64% 23.18%
15 2004-10-18 29.77 @ Kilikia 3 986 10.08% Banants 2 1325 68.06% 21.86%
16 2004-08-23 29.09 Banants 3 1250 58.85% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 1025 17.58% 23.57%
17 2004-05-13 27.76 Kilikia 4 1065 12.53% @ Shirak 3 1260 64.87% 22.60%
18 2004-05-22 27.68 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 3 921 14.00% @ Kilikia 2 1093 63.05% 22.95%
19 2004-10-17 25.80 Ararat 4 1215 57.68% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1 1003 18.61% 23.71%
20 2004-07-05 25.34 @ Ararat 5 1179 63.36% Kotayk 1 1004 13.75% 22.89%
21 2004-09-12 25.16 @ Shirak 3 1090 48.27% Kilikia 1 1062 27.33% 24.41%
22 2004-09-18 24.54 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1 1002 26.53% @ Kilikia 0 1036 49.10% 24.37%
23 2004-08-22 24.50 Kotayk 3 999 20.62% @ Kilikia 2 1090 55.45% 23.93%
24 2004-09-03 24.43 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1 981 26.76% Shirak 0 1114 48.86% 24.38%
25 2004-08-23 23.61 @ Pyunik 3 1598 63.10% Mika 0 1425 13.96% 22.94%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-06-13 64.7 @ Mika 2 1364 21.86% Pyunik 2 1542 54.09% 24.05%
2 2004-11-07 62.2 @ Kilikia 2 1049 2.81% Pyunik 2 1647 80.80% 16.38%
3 2004-11-02 62.1 @ Banants 1 1313 9.99% Pyunik 1 1654 68.18% 21.83%
4 2004-05-13 62.0 Kilikia 4 1065 12.53% @ Shirak 3 1260 64.87% 22.60%
5 2004-07-10 61.9 @ Kotayk 3 978 26.15% Shirak 3 1117 49.50% 24.35%
6 2004-05-13 61.0 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 2 914 2.29% Pyunik 2 1553 82.27% 15.44%
7 2004-10-18 59.9 @ Kilikia 3 986 10.08% Banants 2 1325 68.06% 21.86%
8 2004-04-17 58.8 @ Shirak 2 1267 68.60% Ararat 2 1020 9.69% 21.72%
9 2004-05-22 58.6 Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 3 921 14.00% @ Kilikia 2 1093 63.05% 22.95%
10 2004-08-22 56.6 Kotayk 3 999 20.62% @ Kilikia 2 1090 55.45% 23.93%
11 2004-06-01 56.2 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 2 949 6.11% Mika 1 1390 74.02% 19.87%
12 2004-06-01 55.2 @ Kilikia 1 1065 5.02% Pyunik 1 1546 75.96% 19.02%
13 2004-04-08 54.9 @ Banants 1 1436 63.38% Shirak 1 1261 13.73% 22.89%
14 2004-04-17 54.6 @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1 907 4.07% Banants 1 1431 77.86% 18.07%
15 2004-10-18 54.2 @ Mika 1 1379 74.06% Kotayk 1 1037 6.08% 19.85%
16 2004-11-11 54.1 Kilikia 1 1056 1.83% @ Pyunik 0 1640 83.74% 14.43%
17 2004-10-23 54.0 @ Banants 1 1295 34.04% Mika 1 1371 41.36% 24.60%
18 2004-09-28 53.8 @ Kilikia 1 1012 8.46% Mika 1 1387 70.34% 21.20%
19 2004-05-13 53.6 @ Ararat 1 1073 11.35% Mika 1 1387 66.37% 22.28%
20 2004-09-13 53.5 @ Banants 1 1285 69.05% Kotayk 1 1031 9.36% 21.59%
21 2004-11-07 53.4 @ Banants 1 1320 54.91% Ararat 1 1235 21.11% 23.98%
22 2004-05-31 53.3 @ Shirak 1 1223 67.34% Kotayk 1 995 10.62% 22.05%
23 2004-08-13 53.1 @ Banants 1 1255 60.29% Shirak 1 1115 16.33% 23.38%
24 2004-04-09 53.0 @ Kotayk 1 1070 62.77% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1 902 14.24% 23.00%
25 2004-10-23 52.9 @ Shirak 1 1106 59.30% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1 977 17.19% 23.51%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-10-28 24.0 @ Pyunik 7 1650 86.24% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 982 1.19% 12.57%
2 2004-06-30 24.1 @ Pyunik 3 1559 81.98% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 1029 2.39% 15.63%
3 2004-10-03 26.0 @ Banants 4 1307 71.03% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 1021 7.99% 20.98%
4 2004-06-18 26.4 @ Pyunik 4 1539 75.67% Shirak 0 1165 5.18% 19.15%
5 2004-06-12 27.1 @ Banants 2 1391 76.46% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 1000 4.76% 18.78%
6 2004-06-25 27.6 Pyunik 6 1551 78.12% @ Kotayk 1 1021 3.95% 17.93%
7 2004-09-13 27.8 Pyunik 5 1629 81.72% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 1 1006 2.48% 15.80%
8 2004-10-23 27.8 Pyunik 6 1644 80.84% @ Kotayk 1 1046 2.80% 16.36%
9 2004-10-18 28.4 @ Pyunik 6 1639 81.91% Shirak 1 1111 2.41% 15.68%
10 2004-09-02 29.0 @ Pyunik 1 1628 84.12% Kotayk 0 1032 1.72% 14.16%
11 2004-07-08 29.3 @ Pyunik 7 1576 79.63% Kilikia 2 1109 3.28% 17.09%
12 2004-11-07 29.5 @ Mika 1 1383 77.92% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 958 4.04% 18.04%
13 2004-08-14 29.9 @ Mika 5 1412 72.33% Kilikia 1 1103 7.14% 20.53%
14 2004-08-23 30.2 Banants 3 1250 58.85% @ Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 1025 17.58% 23.57%
15 2004-04-08 30.4 Pyunik 4 1521 76.60% @ Ararat 1 1026 4.69% 18.71%
16 2004-08-28 30.5 @ Ararat 2 1187 64.55% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 996 12.78% 22.67%
17 2004-07-18 30.6 @ Mika 1 1409 75.01% Dinamo-Zenit Yerevan 0 1048 5.54% 19.45%
18 2004-08-08 30.9 @ Pyunik 3 1581 72.65% Banants 0 1266 6.94% 20.41%
19 2004-10-28 31.4 Banants 2 1296 61.72% @ Kotayk 0 1040 15.11% 23.17%
20 2004-05-01 31.6 @ Pyunik 3 1551 81.37% Kotayk 1 1038 2.61% 16.03%
21 2004-04-24 31.9 @ Banants 1 1422 71.79% Kilikia 0 1122 7.49% 20.72%
22 2004-09-22 32.1 @ Shirak 2 1150 59.05% Kotayk 0 1024 17.41% 23.54%
23 2004-07-05 32.2 @ Ararat 5 1179 63.36% Kotayk 1 1004 13.75% 22.89%
24 2004-08-29 32.2 Pyunik 4 1621 76.88% @ Shirak 1 1121 4.55% 18.57%
25 2004-04-09 32.5 @ Mika 1 1365 68.93% Kilikia 0 1113 9.45% 21.62%