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2003 Armenian Premier League Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Pyunik

74 points · 6th Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Pyunik

6.83 points above expected

74 points · 67.17 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ararat

11.69 points below expected

15 points · 26.69 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Pyunik Champion 28 23 5 0 74 87 11 +76 67.17 +6.83
2 Banants 28 21 3 4 66 89 15 +74 59.48 +6.52
3 Shirak 28 17 2 9 53 63 34 +29 49.77 +3.23
4 Mika 28 15 6 7 51 49 29 +20 47.85 +3.15
5 Kotayk 28 8 7 13 31 29 56 -27 29.49 +1.51
6 Dinamo Yerevan 28 5 4 19 19 18 69 -51 18.94 +0.06
7 Ararat 28 3 6 19 15 20 72 -52 26.69 -11.69
8 Araks Ararat 28 2 3 23 9 17 86 -69 18.75 -9.75

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Pyunik 74 67.17 +6.83
2 Banants 66 59.48 +6.52
3 Shirak 53 49.77 +3.23
4 Mika 51 47.85 +3.15
5 Kotayk 31 29.49 +1.51

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ararat 15 26.69 -11.69
2 Araks Ararat 9 18.75 -9.75
3 Dinamo Yerevan 19 18.94 +0.06
4 Kotayk 31 29.49 +1.51
5 Mika 51 47.85 +3.15

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kotayk 3 Apr 13 – Apr 27 1 in 226
2 Pyunik 12 Sep 15 – Nov 13 1 in 38
3 Mika 5 Jun 28 – Jul 26 1 in 21
4 Shirak 5 Apr 18 – May 31 1 in 18
5 Banants 6 Jul 5 – Sep 15 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Araks Ararat 7 Apr 13 – Jun 11 1 in 65
2 Ararat 4 May 4 – Jun 11 1 in 14
3 Mika 3 May 31 – Jun 22 1 in 4
4 Dinamo Yerevan 5 Oct 24 – Nov 13 1 in 4
5 Banants 1 Apr 12 – Apr 12 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kotayk 4 Apr 13 – May 3 1 in 79
2 Mika 9 Oct 19 – Nov 22 1 in 42
3 Banants 12 May 3 – Sep 15 1 in 28
4 Pyunik 28 Apr 12 – Nov 22 1 in 20
5 Shirak 6 Apr 18 – Jun 12 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ararat 20 May 4 – Oct 27 1 in 723
2 Kotayk 8 Aug 3 – Oct 4 1 in 25
3 Araks Ararat 14 Apr 13 – Aug 3 1 in 21
4 Dinamo Yerevan 11 Sep 30 – Nov 22 1 in 7
5 Shirak 2 Jun 12 – Jun 21 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Pyunik 1794 74 +50 13 12.4 +0.6
Banants 1612 66 -40 12 11.7 +0.3
Shirak 1304 53 -24 9 8.8 +0.2
Mika 1498 51 +149 13 9.9 +3.1
Kotayk 953 31 -19 4 3.2 +0.8
Dinamo Yerevan 638 19 -102 1 2.4 -1.4
Ararat 849 15 +49 3 2.6 +0.4
Araks Ararat 817 9 -76 1 3.9 -2.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AA ARA BAN DY KOT MIK PYU SHI
Araks Ararat —
1-2-1
4.98
0-0-4
1.42
1-1-2
5.14
0-0-4
3.11
0-0-4
2.00
0-0-4
0.84
0-0-4
1.18
Ararat
1-2-1
6.35
 —
0-0-4
1.10
2-1-1
7.19
0-2-2
5.67
0-1-3
2.71
0-0-4
0.82
0-0-4
2.56
Banants
4-0-0
9.99
4-0-0
10.29
 —
4-0-0
10.57
4-0-0
9.14
2-1-1
7.92
0-2-2
3.94
3-0-1
7.27
Dinamo Yerevan
2-1-1
6.18
1-1-2
4.13
0-0-4
0.84
 —
1-2-1
4.29
1-0-3
1.33
0-0-4
0.68
0-0-4
1.39
Kotayk
4-0-0
8.21
2-2-0
5.66
0-0-4
2.23
1-2-1
7.03
 —
1-1-2
2.90
0-1-3
1.03
0-1-3
2.34
Mika
4-0-0
9.34
3-1-0
8.64
1-1-2
3.40
3-0-1
10.05
2-1-1
8.43
 —
0-2-2
2.20
2-1-1
5.43
Pyunik
4-0-0
10.59
4-0-0
10.61
2-2-0
7.38
4-0-0
10.77
3-1-0
10.37
2-2-0
9.14
 —
4-0-0
8.75
Shirak
4-0-0
10.19
4-0-0
8.78
1-0-3
4.05
4-0-0
9.97
3-1-0
8.99
1-1-2
5.89
0-0-4
2.59
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.94 +7.9
Allowed 0.99 -8.7
Differential 0.99 +4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.36%4.46%8.48%7.14%3.57%4.91%33.93%
14.46%8.04%4.02%3.57%1.34%2.68%24.11%
28.48%4.02%1.79%0.45%0.89%—15.62%
37.14%3.57%0.45%0.89%—0.45%12.50%
43.57%1.34%0.89%———5.80%
5+4.91%2.68%—0.45%——8.04%
Total33.93%24.11%15.62%12.50%5.80%8.04%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 1.66 +0.00
SD 1.87 1.87 3.13
CV 1.12 1.12 —
Max 11 11 +11
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%14.29%7.14%17.86%7.14%60.71%
1—3.57%—10.71%—7.14%21.43%
2—3.57%3.57%—7.14%—14.29%
33.57%—————3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%17.86%17.86%17.86%25.00%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 3.07 -2.46
SD 0.88 2.24 2.55
CV 1.44 0.73 —
Max 3 11 +3
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%—14.29%14.29%—14.29%53.57%
1—10.71%14.29%—3.57%7.14%35.71%
2———————
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total17.86%14.29%28.57%14.29%3.57%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.71 2.57 -1.86
SD 1.05 2.13 2.69
CV 1.47 0.83 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%10.71%———17.86%
1—7.14%————7.14%
217.86%3.57%————21.43%
37.14%3.57%————10.71%
47.14%7.14%————14.29%
5+21.43%7.14%————28.57%
Total57.14%32.14%10.71%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.18 0.54 +2.64
SD 2.44 0.69 2.84
CV 0.77 1.29 —
Max 9 2 +9
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%10.71%14.29%3.57%14.29%60.71%
13.57%3.57%3.57%10.71%——21.43%
2—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
3—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%25.00%21.43%25.00%3.57%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 2.46 -1.82
SD 0.95 1.99 2.45
CV 1.48 0.81 —
Max 3 9 +2
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%—7.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%35.71%
110.71%7.14%3.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%35.71%
210.71%3.57%3.57%———17.86%
3—3.57%—3.57%—3.57%10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total32.14%14.29%14.29%21.43%7.14%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 2.00 -0.96
SD 1.00 1.96 2.27
CV 0.96 0.98 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%—17.86%
13.57%14.29%3.57%—3.57%—25.00%
217.86%—3.57%3.57%——25.00%
321.43%7.14%————28.57%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+———————
Total46.43%25.00%14.29%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.04 +0.71
SD 1.17 1.26 2.05
CV 0.67 1.22 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%—————3.57%
17.14%14.29%————21.43%
217.86%10.71%————28.57%
310.71%—————10.71%
410.71%3.57%————14.29%
5+10.71%10.71%————21.43%
Total60.71%39.29%————100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.11 0.39 +2.71
SD 2.36 0.50 2.43
CV 0.76 1.27 —
Max 11 1 +11
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
110.71%3.57%7.14%——3.57%25.00%
23.57%3.57%————7.14%
310.71%7.14%—3.57%——21.43%
47.14%—3.57%———10.71%
5+7.14%3.57%—3.57%——14.29%
Total39.29%25.00%17.86%14.29%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.25 1.21 +1.04
SD 1.90 1.32 2.62
CV 0.84 1.08 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Pyunik 1794 74 67.17 +6.83 93.0% 52 58 64 67 71 76 80
Banants 1612 66 59.48 +6.52 87.0% 46 51 55 59 64 69 75
Mika 1498 51 47.85 +3.15 68.0% 36 38 43 48 52 58 62
Shirak 1304 53 49.77 +3.23 73.0% 36 40 45 50 54 59 63
Kotayk 953 31 29.49 +1.51 60.0% 13 20 26 30 34 38 40
Ararat 849 15 26.69 -11.69 1.0% 14 19 23 26 30 35 40
Araks Ararat 817 9 18.75 -9.75 3.0% 5 10 15 19 22 28 35
Dinamo Yerevan 638 19 18.94 +0.06 59.0% 6 11 16 18 23 28 32

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+3.57%
No Edge
43.75%16.07%40.18%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 12.41 Elo pts.
193 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.34 goals
Neutral
-2+0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.5
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
80%
Pyunik, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.29/gm
Runaway
00.300.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.52 * Some Luck: 4.52 to 6.78 * Lucky: 6.78 to 9.04 * Wild Swing: 9.04 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.41 * Close: 0.41 to 0.62 * Off: 0.62 to 0.83 * Way Off: 0.83 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.55 points
Some Luck
05.6514
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.25
Pinpoint
00.521.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
93.00%
Pyunik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
Ararat
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.33
Lopsided
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 425.47
3.35
Wide Separation
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
98%
Wide Edge
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
34%
Few
0%37%100%
Blowouts
Expected
39%
Very Frequent
0%43%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.40
Highly Predictable
00.442
Matchup Imbalance
0.66
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.46
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.33
Weak Carryover
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Chalky
0%14%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Solid Favorites
0%11%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.35
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.07
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.078
Well Within Noise
00.1210.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Pyunik80.00%18.00%2.00%—————
Banants20.00%62.00%16.00%2.00%————
Shirak—11.00%51.00%38.00%————
Mika—9.00%31.00%59.00%1.00%———
Kotayk———1.00%65.00%24.00%7.00%3.00%
Dinamo Yerevan————2.00%18.00%35.00%45.00%
Ararat————28.00%46.00%21.00%5.00%
Araks Ararat————4.00%12.00%37.00%47.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Banants 100% —
Mika 100% —
Pyunik 100% —
Shirak 100% —
Kotayk 97.00% 3.00%
Ararat 95.00% 5.00%
Dinamo Yerevan 55.00% 45.00%
Araks Ararat 53.00% 47.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-04-12 Pyunik L 0-238.4 1284 1406 27.09% 16.99% 55.92%-0.57 -60.4 0
2003-04-12 @ Shirak W 2-038.4 1406 1284 55.92% 16.99% 27.09%+0.57 +60.4 3
2003-04-12 Banants W 2-045.8 1140 1269 26.25% 16.98% 56.77%-0.60 +114.8 3
2003-04-12 @ Mika L 0-245.8 1269 1140 56.77% 16.98% 26.25%+0.60 -114.8 0
2003-04-13 Araks Ararat W 4-043.4 1215 1334 27.34% 16.99% 55.67%-0.56 +213.8 3
2003-04-13 @ Ararat L 0-443.4 1334 1215 55.67% 16.99% 27.34%+0.56 -213.8 0
2003-04-13 Kotayk L 0-141.2 886 929 37.13% 17.04% 45.82%-0.16 -42.0 0
2003-04-13 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 1-041.2 929 886 45.82% 17.04% 37.13%+0.16 +42.0 3
2003-04-18 Dinamo Yerevan W 1-031.9 1224 844 77.03% 16.29% 6.68%+2.04 +8.7 3
2003-04-18 @ Shirak L 0-131.9 844 1224 6.68% 16.29% 77.03%-2.04 -8.7 0
2003-04-19 Mika L 1-341.2 1120 1255 25.59% 16.97% 57.44%-0.63 -49.8 0
2003-04-19 @ Araks Ararat W 3-141.2 1255 1120 57.44% 16.97% 25.59%+0.63 +49.8 6
2003-04-19 Pyunik D 0-052.5 1154 1466 10.85% 16.60% 72.55%-1.56 +18.5 1
2003-04-19 @ Banants D 0-052.5 1466 1154 72.55% 16.60% 10.85%+1.56 -18.5 4
2003-04-20 Ararat W 2-052.1 971 1428 5.03% 16.08% 78.89%-2.31 +161.1 6
2003-04-20 @ Kotayk L 0-252.1 1428 971 78.89% 16.08% 5.03%+2.31 -161.1 3
2003-04-26 Shirak L 0-140.7 1173 1233 34.81% 17.04% 48.15%-0.25 -39.7 1
2003-04-26 @ Banants W 1-040.7 1233 1173 48.15% 17.04% 34.81%+0.25 +39.7 6
2003-04-26 Dinamo Yerevan W 3-134.6 1267 836 78.87% 16.08% 5.05%+2.31 +10.8 6
2003-04-26 @ Ararat L 1-334.6 836 1267 5.05% 16.08% 78.87%-2.31 -10.8 0
2003-04-27 Araks Ararat W 11-027.4 1448 1071 76.94% 16.30% 6.77%+2.02 +82.6 7
2003-04-27 @ Pyunik L 0-1127.4 1071 1448 6.77% 16.30% 76.94%-2.02 -82.6 0
2003-04-27 Kotayk L 0-149.5 1305 1132 63.88% 16.88% 19.24%+0.96 -68.4 6
2003-04-27 @ Mika W 1-049.5 1132 1305 19.24% 16.88% 63.88%-0.96 +68.4 9
2003-05-03 Pyunik D 1-157.4 1201 1530 9.93% 16.54% 73.53%-1.65 +17.2 10
2003-05-03 @ Kotayk D 1-157.4 1530 1201 73.53% 16.54% 9.93%+1.65 -17.2 8
2003-05-03 Banants L 0-235.9 988 1133 24.45% 16.96% 58.59%-0.69 -55.2 0
2003-05-03 @ Araks Ararat W 2-035.9 1133 988 58.59% 16.96% 24.45%+0.69 +55.2 4
2003-05-04 Mika W 3-262.1 825 1236 6.44% 16.26% 77.30%-2.07 +74.8 3
2003-05-04 @ Dinamo Yerevan L 2-362.1 1236 825 77.30% 16.26% 6.44%+2.07 -74.8 6
2003-05-04 Shirak L 1-248.3 1278 1272 44.06% 17.05% 38.89%+0.09 -45.7 6
2003-05-04 @ Ararat W 2-148.3 1272 1278 38.89% 17.05% 44.06%-0.09 +45.7 9
2003-05-11 Ararat W 3-042.2 1161 1233 33.35% 17.03% 49.62%-0.30 +147.1 9
2003-05-11 @ Mika L 0-342.2 1233 1161 49.62% 17.03% 33.35%+0.30 -147.1 6
2003-05-11 Kotayk W 3-040.5 1188 1218 38.97% 17.05% 43.98%-0.09 +132.4 7
2003-05-11 @ Banants L 0-340.5 1218 1188 43.98% 17.05% 38.97%+0.09 -132.4 10
2003-05-13 Araks Ararat W 4-027.8 1318 933 77.26% 16.26% 6.48%+2.07 +30.3 12
2003-05-13 @ Shirak L 0-427.8 933 1318 6.48% 16.26% 77.26%-2.07 -30.3 0
2003-05-13 Dinamo Yerevan W 2-134.7 1513 900 82.94% 15.19% 1.87%+3.25 +2.3 11
2003-05-13 @ Pyunik L 1-234.7 900 1513 1.87% 15.19% 82.94%-3.25 -2.3 3
2003-05-30 Pyunik L 0-329.6 1085 1515 5.83% 16.19% 77.99%-2.17 -20.9 6
2003-05-30 @ Ararat W 3-029.6 1515 1085 77.99% 16.19% 5.83%+2.17 +20.9 14
2003-05-31 Araks Ararat W 2-034.0 1086 902 64.89% 16.85% 18.26%+1.02 +42.5 13
2003-05-31 @ Kotayk L 0-234.0 902 1086 18.26% 16.85% 64.89%-1.02 -42.5 0
2003-05-31 Mika W 2-040.2 1348 1309 48.76% 17.03% 34.21%+0.27 +73.8 15
2003-05-31 @ Shirak L 0-240.2 1309 1348 34.21% 17.03% 48.76%-0.27 -73.8 9
2003-05-31 Banants L 1-334.9 897 1320 6.05% 16.21% 77.74%-2.13 -12.9 3
2003-05-31 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 3-134.9 1320 897 77.74% 16.21% 6.05%+2.13 +12.9 10
2003-06-11 Ararat W 2-032.2 1333 1065 71.41% 16.65% 11.94%+1.46 +28.7 13
2003-06-11 @ Banants L 0-232.2 1065 1333 11.94% 16.65% 71.41%-1.46 -28.7 6
2003-06-11 Dinamo Yerevan L 0-142.0 860 884 39.76% 17.05% 43.19%-0.06 -44.4 0
2003-06-11 @ Araks Ararat W 1-042.0 884 860 43.19% 17.05% 39.76%+0.06 +44.4 6
2003-06-12 Mika W 3-033.0 1536 1235 73.36% 16.55% 10.08%+1.63 +35.5 17
2003-06-12 @ Pyunik L 0-333.0 1235 1536 10.08% 16.55% 73.36%-1.63 -35.5 9
2003-06-12 Shirak D 3-364.6 1128 1422 11.91% 16.65% 71.44%-1.46 +9.9 14
2003-06-12 @ Kotayk D 3-364.6 1422 1128 71.44% 16.65% 11.91%+1.46 -9.9 16
2003-06-21 Ararat D 0-051.4 816 1036 17.21% 16.83% 65.96%-1.08 +14.2 1
2003-06-21 @ Araks Ararat D 0-051.4 1036 816 65.96% 16.83% 17.21%+1.08 -14.2 7
2003-06-21 Shirak W 1-045.6 1572 1412 62.68% 16.90% 20.42%+0.89 +24.9 20
2003-06-21 @ Pyunik L 0-145.6 1412 1572 20.42% 16.90% 62.68%-0.89 -24.9 16
2003-06-22 Mika W 4-138.5 1362 1199 63.00% 16.89% 20.11%+0.91 +56.8 16
2003-06-22 @ Banants L 1-438.5 1199 1362 20.11% 16.89% 63.00%-0.91 -56.8 9
2003-06-28 Araks Ararat W 1-032.8 1142 830 73.96% 16.52% 9.52%+1.69 +12.3 12
2003-06-28 @ Mika L 0-132.8 830 1142 9.52% 16.52% 73.96%-1.69 -12.3 1
2003-06-29 Shirak L 0-131.4 929 1387 4.99% 16.07% 78.94%-2.32 -6.6 6
2003-06-29 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 1-031.4 1387 929 78.94% 16.07% 4.99%+2.32 +6.6 19
2003-06-29 Banants D 1-165.5 1597 1419 64.42% 16.86% 18.72%+0.99 -11.9 21
2003-06-29 @ Pyunik D 1-165.5 1419 1597 18.72% 16.86% 64.42%-0.99 +11.9 17
2003-07-05 Pyunik L 1-628.4 817 1585 0.91% 14.44% 84.65%-3.92 -4.3 1
2003-07-05 @ Araks Ararat W 6-128.4 1585 817 84.65% 14.44% 0.91%+3.92 +4.3 24
2003-07-05 Banants L 1-250.1 1394 1431 38.02% 17.05% 44.93%-0.13 -40.4 19
2003-07-05 @ Shirak W 2-150.1 1431 1394 44.93% 17.05% 38.02%+0.13 +40.4 20
2003-07-06 Ararat D 1-154.9 922 1022 29.75% 17.01% 53.24%-0.45 +5.8 7
2003-07-06 @ Dinamo Yerevan D 1-154.9 1022 922 53.24% 17.01% 29.75%+0.45 -5.8 8
2003-07-06 Mika L 0-240.9 1138 1155 40.86% 17.05% 42.09%-0.02 -85.7 14
2003-07-06 @ Kotayk W 2-040.9 1155 1138 42.09% 17.05% 40.86%+0.02 +85.7 15
2003-07-11 Kotayk W 4-133.5 1589 1052 81.56% 15.59% 2.85%+2.85 +8.6 27
2003-07-11 @ Pyunik L 1-433.5 1052 1589 2.85% 15.59% 81.56%-2.85 -8.6 14
2003-07-12 Araks Ararat W 4-026.0 1471 813 83.60% 14.94% 1.46%+3.48 +6.8 23
2003-07-12 @ Banants L 0-426.0 813 1471 1.46% 14.94% 83.60%-3.48 -6.8 1
2003-07-12 Dinamo Yerevan W 3-029.9 1240 928 73.94% 16.52% 9.54%+1.69 +33.7 18
2003-07-12 @ Mika L 0-329.9 928 1240 9.54% 16.52% 73.94%-1.69 -33.7 7
2003-07-13 Ararat W 5-027.9 1354 1016 75.22% 16.44% 8.34%+1.82 +47.7 22
2003-07-13 @ Shirak L 0-527.9 1016 1354 8.34% 16.44% 75.22%-1.82 -47.7 8
2003-07-19 Pyunik L 0-426.2 894 1598 1.30% 14.82% 83.88%-3.59 -6.0 7
2003-07-19 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 4-026.2 1598 894 83.88% 14.82% 1.30%+3.59 +6.0 30
2003-07-19 Shirak L 0-426.3 806 1401 2.37% 15.42% 82.20%-3.02 -11.1 1
2003-07-19 @ Araks Ararat W 4-026.3 1401 806 82.20% 15.42% 2.37%+3.02 +11.1 25
2003-07-19 Banants L 0-230.5 1044 1478 5.70% 16.17% 78.13%-2.19 -14.1 14
2003-07-19 @ Kotayk W 2-030.5 1478 1044 78.13% 16.17% 5.70%+2.19 +14.1 26
2003-07-20 Mika L 0-231.8 968 1274 11.21% 16.62% 72.18%-1.52 -27.0 8
2003-07-20 @ Ararat W 2-031.8 1274 968 72.18% 16.62% 11.21%+1.52 +27.0 21
2003-07-26 Shirak W 3-045.6 1301 1412 28.29% 17.00% 54.71%-0.51 +161.0 24
2003-07-26 @ Mika L 0-345.6 1412 1301 54.71% 17.00% 28.29%+0.51 -161.0 25
2003-07-26 Dinamo Yerevan W 9-025.2 1492 888 82.78% 15.25% 1.97%+3.20 +19.9 29
2003-07-26 @ Banants L 0-925.2 888 1492 1.97% 15.25% 82.78%-3.20 -19.9 7
2003-07-27 Ararat W 2-028.9 1604 941 83.66% 14.91% 1.42%+3.51 +3.5 33
2003-07-27 @ Pyunik L 0-228.9 941 1604 1.42% 14.91% 83.66%-3.51 -3.5 8
2003-07-27 Kotayk L 0-233.3 795 1030 16.07% 16.80% 67.13%-1.15 -37.8 1
2003-07-27 @ Araks Ararat W 2-033.3 1030 795 67.13% 16.80% 16.07%+1.15 +37.8 17
2003-07-31 Banants L 0-725.7 938 1512 2.66% 15.53% 81.81%-2.92 -21.1 8
2003-07-31 @ Ararat W 7-025.7 1512 938 81.81% 15.53% 2.66%+2.92 +21.2 32
2003-08-02 Pyunik D 1-167.5 1462 1607 24.40% 16.96% 58.64%-0.69 +8.7 25
2003-08-02 @ Mika D 1-167.5 1607 1462 58.64% 16.96% 24.40%+0.69 -8.7 34
2003-08-03 Araks Ararat W 3-140.9 868 757 57.58% 16.97% 25.45%+0.64 +49.5 10
2003-08-03 @ Dinamo Yerevan L 1-340.9 757 868 25.45% 16.97% 57.58%-0.64 -49.5 1
2003-08-03 Kotayk W 5-345.4 1251 1067 64.96% 16.85% 18.18%+1.02 +31.0 28
2003-08-03 @ Shirak L 3-545.4 1067 1251 18.18% 16.85% 64.96%-1.02 -31.0 17
2003-08-07 Dinamo Yerevan L 1-252.0 1036 918 58.41% 16.96% 24.63%+0.68 -59.0 17
2003-08-07 @ Kotayk W 2-152.0 918 1036 24.63% 16.96% 58.41%-0.68 +59.0 13
2003-08-15 Kotayk D 1-154.9 916 977 34.70% 17.04% 48.27%-0.25 +3.3 9
2003-08-15 @ Ararat D 1-154.9 977 916 48.27% 17.04% 34.70%+0.25 -3.3 18
2003-09-15 Araks Ararat L 1-254.6 920 708 67.32% 16.79% 15.89%+1.16 -68.1 9
2003-09-15 @ Ararat W 2-154.6 708 920 15.89% 16.79% 67.32%-1.16 +68.1 4
2003-09-15 Kotayk D 0-051.3 977 974 43.65% 17.05% 39.30%+0.08 -1.2 14
2003-09-15 @ Dinamo Yerevan D 0-051.3 974 977 39.30% 17.05% 43.65%-0.08 +1.2 19
2003-09-15 Pyunik L 1-243.3 1282 1599 10.63% 16.59% 72.79%-1.58 -12.9 28
2003-09-15 @ Shirak W 2-143.3 1599 1282 72.79% 16.59% 10.63%+1.58 +12.9 37
2003-09-15 Banants L 0-446.5 1471 1533 34.54% 17.04% 48.43%-0.26 -141.2 25
2003-09-15 @ Mika W 4-046.5 1533 1471 48.43% 17.04% 34.54%+0.26 +141.2 35
2003-09-19 Pyunik L 0-261.9 1674 1612 51.73% 17.02% 31.25%+0.39 -105.2 35
2003-09-19 @ Banants W 2-061.9 1612 1674 31.25% 17.02% 51.73%-0.39 +105.2 40
2003-09-20 Ararat D 0-051.3 975 852 58.98% 16.95% 24.06%+0.71 -9.9 20
2003-09-20 @ Kotayk D 0-051.3 852 975 24.06% 16.95% 58.98%-0.71 +9.9 10
2003-09-20 Dinamo Yerevan W 6-028.2 1270 976 72.92% 16.58% 10.50%+1.59 +70.6 31
2003-09-20 @ Shirak L 0-628.2 976 1270 10.50% 16.58% 72.92%-1.59 -70.6 14
2003-09-24 Araks Ararat W 4-025.4 1717 776 86.56% 13.13% 0.30%+4.95 +1.4 43
2003-09-24 @ Pyunik L 0-425.4 776 1717 0.30% 13.13% 86.56%-4.95 -1.4 4
2003-09-24 Kotayk W 3-135.4 1330 965 76.40% 16.34% 7.26%+1.96 +15.4 28
2003-09-24 @ Mika L 1-335.4 965 1330 7.26% 16.34% 76.40%-1.96 -15.4 20
2003-09-25 Shirak W 5-141.2 1569 1340 68.63% 16.75% 14.61%+1.25 +54.8 38
2003-09-25 @ Banants L 1-541.2 1340 1569 14.61% 16.75% 68.63%-1.25 -54.8 31
2003-09-25 Dinamo Yerevan L 1-245.6 862 905 37.06% 17.04% 45.89%-0.16 -39.5 10
2003-09-25 @ Ararat W 2-145.6 905 862 45.89% 17.04% 37.06%+0.16 +39.5 17
2003-09-27 Kotayk W 7-128.4 1718 950 84.93% 14.28% 0.79%+4.05 +4.4 46
2003-09-27 @ Pyunik L 1-728.4 950 1718 0.79% 14.28% 84.93%-4.05 -4.4 20
2003-09-29 Banants L 0-624.6 775 1624 0.58% 13.92% 85.50%-4.34 -3.9 4
2003-09-29 @ Araks Ararat W 6-024.6 1624 775 85.50% 13.92% 0.58%+4.34 +3.9 41
2003-09-30 Mika L 0-329.0 945 1345 6.83% 16.30% 76.87%-2.01 -24.4 17
2003-09-30 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 3-029.0 1345 945 76.87% 16.30% 6.83%+2.01 +24.4 31
2003-09-30 Shirak L 0-328.3 822 1285 4.87% 16.05% 79.08%-2.34 -17.5 10
2003-09-30 @ Ararat W 3-028.3 1285 822 79.08% 16.05% 4.87%+2.34 +17.5 34
2003-10-04 Ararat D 0-051.8 1369 805 82.11% 15.45% 2.44%+3.00 -24.7 32
2003-10-04 @ Mika D 0-051.8 805 1369 2.44% 15.45% 82.11%-3.00 +24.7 11
2003-10-04 Kotayk W 6-025.6 1628 946 83.92% 14.80% 1.28%+3.61 +8.7 44
2003-10-04 @ Banants L 0-625.6 946 1628 1.28% 14.80% 83.92%-3.61 -8.7 20
2003-10-05 Pyunik L 0-229.2 920 1723 0.75% 14.22% 85.03%-4.10 -1.8 17
2003-10-05 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 2-029.2 1723 920 85.03% 14.22% 0.75%+4.10 +1.8 49
2003-10-06 Araks Ararat W 4-237.9 1303 771 81.46% 15.62% 2.92%+2.83 +5.6 37
2003-10-06 @ Shirak L 2-437.9 771 1303 2.92% 15.62% 81.46%-2.83 -5.6 4
2003-10-10 Araks Ararat W 3-139.1 937 765 63.84% 16.88% 19.28%+0.96 +38.7 23
2003-10-10 @ Kotayk L 1-339.1 765 937 19.28% 16.88% 63.84%-0.96 -38.7 4
2003-10-14 Ararat W 4-131.5 1636 829 85.33% 14.03% 0.64%+4.25 +1.9 47
2003-10-14 @ Banants L 1-431.5 829 1636 0.64% 14.03% 85.33%-4.25 -1.9 11
2003-10-14 Shirak L 1-336.2 976 1309 9.75% 16.53% 73.72%-1.66 -20.5 23
2003-10-14 @ Kotayk W 3-136.2 1309 976 73.72% 16.53% 9.75%+1.66 +20.5 40
2003-10-15 Mika W 2-148.8 1724 1345 77.03% 16.29% 6.68%+2.04 +8.2 52
2003-10-15 @ Pyunik L 1-248.8 1345 1724 6.68% 16.29% 77.03%-2.04 -8.2 32
2003-10-15 Dinamo Yerevan W 3-046.1 726 918 19.70% 16.88% 63.42%-0.93 +185.9 7
2003-10-15 @ Araks Ararat L 0-346.1 918 726 63.42% 16.88% 19.70%+0.93 -185.9 17
2003-10-19 Ararat D 1-154.9 912 827 54.53% 17.00% 28.47%+0.51 -6.5 8
2003-10-19 @ Araks Ararat D 1-154.9 827 912 28.47% 17.00% 54.53%-0.51 +6.5 12
2003-10-19 Mika D 1-164.1 1638 1336 73.37% 16.55% 10.08%+1.63 -17.1 48
2003-10-19 @ Banants D 1-164.1 1336 1638 10.08% 16.55% 73.37%-1.63 +17.1 33
2003-10-20 Shirak W 1-043.9 1733 1329 77.93% 16.19% 5.88%+2.16 +7.7 55
2003-10-20 @ Pyunik L 0-143.9 1329 1733 5.88% 16.19% 77.93%-2.16 -7.7 40
2003-10-20 Dinamo Yerevan D 0-051.4 955 733 68.16% 16.77% 15.07%+1.22 -15.6 24
2003-10-20 @ Kotayk D 0-051.4 733 955 15.07% 16.77% 68.16%-1.22 +15.7 18
2003-10-24 Araks Ararat W 2-029.7 1354 906 79.36% 16.01% 4.63%+2.39 +11.5 36
2003-10-24 @ Mika L 0-229.7 906 1354 4.63% 16.01% 79.36%-2.39 -11.5 8
2003-10-24 Kotayk L 1-243.1 834 939 29.00% 17.00% 54.00%-0.48 -32.0 12
2003-10-24 @ Ararat W 2-143.1 939 834 54.00% 17.00% 29.00%+0.48 +32.0 27
2003-10-24 Shirak L 1-333.7 748 1321 2.67% 15.54% 81.79%-2.91 -5.7 18
2003-10-24 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 3-133.7 1321 748 81.79% 15.54% 2.67%+2.91 +5.7 43
2003-10-27 Ararat W 6-128.2 1740 802 86.54% 13.15% 0.31%+4.94 +1.4 58
2003-10-27 @ Pyunik L 1-628.2 802 1740 0.31% 13.15% 86.54%-4.94 -1.4 12
2003-10-27 Mika D 1-156.7 1327 1365 37.85% 17.05% 45.10%-0.13 +1.8 44
2003-10-27 @ Shirak D 1-156.7 1365 1327 45.10% 17.05% 37.85%+0.13 -1.7 37
2003-10-27 Banants L 0-524.7 742 1621 0.49% 13.72% 85.79%-4.50 -2.8 18
2003-10-27 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 5-024.7 1621 742 85.79% 13.72% 0.49%+4.50 +2.8 51
2003-10-30 Ararat L 0-337.5 740 800 34.73% 17.04% 48.23%-0.25 -108.6 18
2003-10-30 @ Dinamo Yerevan W 3-037.5 800 740 48.23% 17.04% 34.73%+0.25 +108.6 15
2003-10-30 Mika D 2-260.0 971 1363 7.15% 16.33% 76.52%-1.97 +14.1 28
2003-10-30 @ Kotayk D 2-260.0 1363 971 76.52% 16.33% 7.15%+1.97 -14.1 38
2003-10-30 Pyunik L 0-327.6 894 1742 0.59% 13.93% 85.49%-4.34 -2.1 8
2003-10-30 @ Araks Ararat W 3-027.6 1742 894 85.49% 13.93% 0.59%+4.34 +2.0 61
2003-10-30 Banants L 0-240.2 1329 1624 11.85% 16.65% 71.50%-1.47 -28.5 44
2003-10-30 @ Shirak W 2-040.2 1624 1329 71.50% 16.65% 11.85%+1.47 +28.5 54
2003-11-04 Mika L 2-438.7 892 1349 5.04% 16.08% 78.88%-2.31 -9.7 8
2003-11-04 @ Araks Ararat W 4-238.7 1349 892 78.88% 16.08% 5.04%+2.31 +9.7 41
2003-11-05 Banants W 2-055.8 1744 1652 55.29% 16.99% 27.71%+0.54 +61.6 64
2003-11-05 @ Pyunik L 0-255.8 1652 1744 27.71% 16.99% 55.29%-0.54 -61.6 54
2003-11-08 Mika L 0-328.5 909 1359 5.24% 16.11% 78.65%-2.27 -18.8 15
2003-11-08 @ Ararat W 3-028.5 1359 909 78.65% 16.11% 5.24%+2.27 +18.8 44
2003-11-08 Shirak L 0-328.8 883 1300 6.23% 16.24% 77.53%-2.10 -22.3 8
2003-11-08 @ Araks Ararat W 3-028.8 1300 883 77.53% 16.24% 6.23%+2.10 +22.3 47
2003-11-08 Dinamo Yerevan W 5-024.1 1805 631 88.44% 11.48% 0.08%+6.16 +0.4 67
2003-11-08 @ Pyunik L 0-524.1 631 1805 0.08% 11.48% 88.44%-6.16 -0.4 18
2003-11-08 Banants L 0-328.1 986 1591 2.24% 15.37% 82.39%-3.08 -8.0 28
2003-11-08 @ Kotayk W 3-028.1 1591 986 82.39% 15.37% 2.24%+3.08 +8.0 57
2003-11-13 Kotayk L 0-138.3 860 978 27.61% 16.99% 55.40%-0.54 -32.6 8
2003-11-13 @ Araks Ararat W 1-038.3 978 860 55.40% 16.99% 27.61%+0.54 +32.6 31
2003-11-13 Pyunik L 0-526.3 890 1806 0.40% 13.47% 86.12%-4.69 -2.2 15
2003-11-13 @ Ararat W 5-026.3 1806 890 86.12% 13.47% 0.40%+4.69 +2.2 70
2003-11-13 Shirak W 3-038.7 1378 1323 50.76% 17.03% 32.22%+0.35 +101.9 47
2003-11-13 @ Mika L 0-338.7 1323 1378 32.22% 17.03% 50.76%-0.35 -101.9 47
2003-11-13 Dinamo Yerevan W 2-027.4 1599 631 86.80% 12.94% 0.26%+5.09 +0.6 60
2003-11-13 @ Banants L 0-227.4 631 1599 0.26% 12.94% 86.80%-5.09 -0.6 18
2003-11-17 Banants L 0-725.1 888 1599 1.25% 14.78% 83.98%-3.63 -9.8 15
2003-11-17 @ Ararat W 7-025.1 1599 888 83.98% 14.78% 1.25%+3.63 +9.8 63
2003-11-18 Araks Ararat D 2-259.7 630 828 19.17% 16.87% 63.96%-0.96 +8.7 19
2003-11-18 @ Dinamo Yerevan D 2-259.7 828 630 63.96% 16.87% 19.17%+0.96 -8.6 9
2003-11-18 Kotayk W 3-031.9 1221 1010 67.22% 16.80% 15.98%+1.16 +54.7 50
2003-11-18 @ Shirak L 0-331.9 1010 1221 15.98% 16.80% 67.22%-1.16 -54.7 31
2003-11-18 Pyunik D 1-173.0 1479 1808 9.97% 16.55% 73.48%-1.64 +17.1 48
2003-11-18 @ Mika D 1-173.0 1808 1479 73.48% 16.55% 9.97%+1.64 -17.1 71
2003-11-22 Araks Ararat W 5-129.8 1609 819 85.16% 14.14% 0.70%+4.17 +2.7 66
2003-11-22 @ Banants L 1-529.8 819 1609 0.70% 14.14% 85.16%-4.17 -2.7 9
2003-11-22 Ararat W 6-130.3 1275 878 77.70% 16.22% 6.08%+2.13 +29.0 53
2003-11-22 @ Shirak L 1-630.3 878 1275 6.08% 16.22% 77.70%-2.13 -29.1 15
2003-11-22 Pyunik L 0-427.9 955 1791 0.63% 14.00% 85.37%-4.27 -2.9 31
2003-11-22 @ Kotayk W 4-027.9 1791 955 85.37% 14.00% 0.63%+4.27 +2.9 74
2003-11-22 Dinamo Yerevan W 2-027.7 1497 639 85.82% 13.69% 0.48%+4.52 +1.2 51
2003-11-22 @ Mika L 0-227.7 639 1497 0.48% 13.69% 85.82%-4.52 -1.2 19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2003-04-20 5.03% @ Kotayk 971 2 Ararat 1428 0
2 2003-05-04 6.44% @ Dinamo Yerevan 825 3 Mika 1236 2
3 2003-09-15 15.89% Araks Ararat 708 2 @ Ararat 920 1
4 2003-04-27 19.24% Kotayk 1132 1 @ Mika 1305 0
5 2003-10-15 19.70% @ Araks Ararat 726 3 Dinamo Yerevan 918 0
6 2003-08-07 24.63% Dinamo Yerevan 918 2 @ Kotayk 1036 1
7 2003-04-12 26.25% @ Mika 1140 2 Banants 1269 0
8 2003-04-13 27.34% @ Ararat 1215 4 Araks Ararat 1334 0
9 2003-07-26 28.29% @ Mika 1301 3 Shirak 1412 0
10 2003-09-19 31.25% Pyunik 1612 2 @ Banants 1674 0
11 2003-05-11 33.35% @ Mika 1161 3 Ararat 1233 0
12 2003-05-04 38.89% Shirak 1272 2 @ Ararat 1278 1
13 2003-05-11 38.97% @ Banants 1188 3 Kotayk 1218 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-04-13 213.80 @ Ararat 4 1215 27.34% Araks Ararat 0 1334 55.67% 16.99%
2 2003-10-15 185.94 @ Araks Ararat 3 726 19.70% Dinamo Yerevan 0 918 63.42% 16.88%
3 2003-04-20 161.10 @ Kotayk 2 971 5.03% Ararat 0 1428 78.89% 16.08%
4 2003-07-26 160.97 @ Mika 3 1301 28.29% Shirak 0 1412 54.71% 17.00%
5 2003-05-11 147.14 @ Mika 3 1161 33.35% Ararat 0 1233 49.62% 17.03%
6 2003-09-15 141.21 Banants 4 1533 48.43% @ Mika 0 1471 34.54% 17.04%
7 2003-05-11 132.41 @ Banants 3 1188 38.97% Kotayk 0 1218 43.98% 17.05%
8 2003-04-12 114.80 @ Mika 2 1140 26.25% Banants 0 1269 56.77% 16.98%
9 2003-10-30 108.61 Ararat 3 800 48.23% @ Dinamo Yerevan 0 740 34.73% 17.04%
10 2003-09-19 105.22 Pyunik 2 1612 31.25% @ Banants 0 1674 51.73% 17.02%
11 2003-11-13 101.88 @ Mika 3 1378 50.76% Shirak 0 1323 32.22% 17.03%
12 2003-07-06 85.71 Mika 2 1155 42.09% @ Kotayk 0 1138 40.86% 17.05%
13 2003-04-27 82.56 @ Pyunik 11 1448 76.94% Araks Ararat 0 1071 6.77% 16.30%
14 2003-05-04 74.81 @ Dinamo Yerevan 3 825 6.44% Mika 2 1236 77.30% 16.26%
15 2003-05-31 73.82 @ Shirak 2 1348 48.76% Mika 0 1309 34.21% 17.03%
16 2003-09-20 70.60 @ Shirak 6 1270 72.92% Dinamo Yerevan 0 976 10.50% 16.58%
17 2003-04-27 68.40 Kotayk 1 1132 19.24% @ Mika 0 1305 63.88% 16.88%
18 2003-09-15 68.06 Araks Ararat 2 708 15.89% @ Ararat 1 920 67.32% 16.79%
19 2003-11-05 61.60 @ Pyunik 2 1744 55.29% Banants 0 1652 27.71% 16.99%
20 2003-04-12 60.39 Pyunik 2 1406 55.92% @ Shirak 0 1284 27.09% 16.99%
21 2003-08-07 59.00 Dinamo Yerevan 2 918 24.63% @ Kotayk 1 1036 58.41% 16.96%
22 2003-06-22 56.79 @ Banants 4 1362 63.00% Mika 1 1199 20.11% 16.89%
23 2003-05-03 55.21 Banants 2 1133 58.59% @ Araks Ararat 0 988 24.45% 16.96%
24 2003-09-25 54.79 @ Banants 5 1569 68.63% Shirak 1 1340 14.61% 16.75%
25 2003-11-18 54.67 @ Shirak 3 1221 67.22% Kotayk 0 1010 15.98% 16.80%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-11-18 73.0 @ Mika 1 1479 9.97% Pyunik 1 1808 73.48% 16.55%
2 2003-08-02 67.5 @ Mika 1 1462 24.40% Pyunik 1 1607 58.64% 16.96%
3 2003-06-29 65.5 @ Pyunik 1 1597 64.42% Banants 1 1419 18.72% 16.86%
4 2003-06-12 64.6 @ Kotayk 3 1128 11.91% Shirak 3 1422 71.44% 16.65%
5 2003-10-19 64.1 @ Banants 1 1638 73.37% Mika 1 1336 10.08% 16.55%
6 2003-05-04 62.1 @ Dinamo Yerevan 3 825 6.44% Mika 2 1236 77.30% 16.26%
7 2003-09-19 61.9 Pyunik 2 1612 31.25% @ Banants 0 1674 51.73% 17.02%
8 2003-10-30 60.0 @ Kotayk 2 971 7.15% Mika 2 1363 76.52% 16.33%
9 2003-11-18 59.7 @ Dinamo Yerevan 2 630 19.17% Araks Ararat 2 828 63.96% 16.87%
10 2003-05-03 57.4 @ Kotayk 1 1201 9.93% Pyunik 1 1530 73.53% 16.54%
11 2003-10-27 56.7 @ Shirak 1 1327 37.85% Mika 1 1365 45.10% 17.05%
12 2003-11-05 55.8 @ Pyunik 2 1744 55.29% Banants 0 1652 27.71% 16.99%
13 2003-07-06 54.9 @ Dinamo Yerevan 1 922 29.75% Ararat 1 1022 53.24% 17.01%
14 2003-08-15 54.9 @ Ararat 1 916 34.70% Kotayk 1 977 48.27% 17.04%
15 2003-10-19 54.9 @ Araks Ararat 1 912 54.53% Ararat 1 827 28.47% 17.00%
16 2003-09-15 54.6 Araks Ararat 2 708 15.89% @ Ararat 1 920 67.32% 16.79%
17 2003-04-19 52.5 @ Banants 0 1154 10.85% Pyunik 0 1466 72.55% 16.60%
18 2003-04-20 52.1 @ Kotayk 2 971 5.03% Ararat 0 1428 78.89% 16.08%
19 2003-08-07 52.0 Dinamo Yerevan 2 918 24.63% @ Kotayk 1 1036 58.41% 16.96%
20 2003-10-04 51.8 @ Mika 0 1369 82.11% Ararat 0 805 2.44% 15.45%
21 2003-06-21 51.4 @ Araks Ararat 0 816 17.21% Ararat 0 1036 65.96% 16.83%
22 2003-10-20 51.4 @ Kotayk 0 955 68.16% Dinamo Yerevan 0 733 15.07% 16.77%
23 2003-09-15 51.3 @ Dinamo Yerevan 0 977 43.65% Kotayk 0 974 39.30% 17.05%
24 2003-09-20 51.3 @ Kotayk 0 975 58.98% Ararat 0 852 24.06% 16.95%
25 2003-07-05 50.1 Banants 2 1431 44.93% @ Shirak 1 1394 38.02% 17.05%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-11-08 24.1 @ Pyunik 5 1805 88.44% Dinamo Yerevan 0 631 0.08% 11.48%
2 2003-09-29 24.6 Banants 6 1624 85.50% @ Araks Ararat 0 775 0.58% 13.92%
3 2003-10-27 24.7 Banants 5 1621 85.79% @ Dinamo Yerevan 0 742 0.49% 13.72%
4 2003-11-17 25.1 Banants 7 1599 83.98% @ Ararat 0 888 1.25% 14.78%
5 2003-07-26 25.2 @ Banants 9 1492 82.78% Dinamo Yerevan 0 888 1.97% 15.25%
6 2003-09-24 25.4 @ Pyunik 4 1717 86.56% Araks Ararat 0 776 0.30% 13.13%
7 2003-10-04 25.6 @ Banants 6 1628 83.92% Kotayk 0 946 1.28% 14.80%
8 2003-07-31 25.7 Banants 7 1512 81.81% @ Ararat 0 938 2.66% 15.53%
9 2003-07-12 26.0 @ Banants 4 1471 83.60% Araks Ararat 0 813 1.46% 14.94%
10 2003-07-19 26.2 Pyunik 4 1598 83.88% @ Dinamo Yerevan 0 894 1.30% 14.82%
11 2003-07-19 26.3 Shirak 4 1401 82.20% @ Araks Ararat 0 806 2.37% 15.42%
12 2003-11-13 26.3 Pyunik 5 1806 86.12% @ Ararat 0 890 0.40% 13.47%
13 2003-04-27 27.4 @ Pyunik 11 1448 76.94% Araks Ararat 0 1071 6.77% 16.30%
14 2003-11-13 27.4 @ Banants 2 1599 86.80% Dinamo Yerevan 0 631 0.26% 12.94%
15 2003-10-30 27.6 Pyunik 3 1742 85.49% @ Araks Ararat 0 894 0.59% 13.93%
16 2003-11-22 27.7 @ Mika 2 1497 85.82% Dinamo Yerevan 0 639 0.48% 13.69%
17 2003-05-13 27.8 @ Shirak 4 1318 77.26% Araks Ararat 0 933 6.48% 16.26%
18 2003-07-13 27.9 @ Shirak 5 1354 75.22% Ararat 0 1016 8.34% 16.44%
19 2003-11-22 27.9 Pyunik 4 1791 85.37% @ Kotayk 0 955 0.63% 14.00%
20 2003-11-08 28.1 Banants 3 1591 82.39% @ Kotayk 0 986 2.24% 15.37%
21 2003-09-20 28.2 @ Shirak 6 1270 72.92% Dinamo Yerevan 0 976 10.50% 16.58%
22 2003-10-27 28.2 @ Pyunik 6 1740 86.54% Ararat 1 802 0.31% 13.15%
23 2003-09-30 28.3 Shirak 3 1285 79.08% @ Ararat 0 822 4.87% 16.05%
24 2003-07-05 28.4 Pyunik 6 1585 84.65% @ Araks Ararat 1 817 0.91% 14.44%
25 2003-09-27 28.4 @ Pyunik 7 1718 84.93% Kotayk 1 950 0.79% 14.28%