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2009 Armenian Premier League Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Pyunik

65 points · 12th Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ulisses

9.50 points above expected

53 points · 43.50 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ararat

15.03 points below expected

14 points · 29.03 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Pyunik Champion 28 20 5 3 65 64 13 +51 59.25 +5.75
2 Mika 28 18 4 6 58 59 34 +25 51.36 +6.64
3 Ulisses 28 16 5 7 53 47 25 +22 43.50 +9.50
4 Banants 28 13 5 10 44 40 29 +11 46.24 -2.24
5 Gandzasar Kapan 28 12 2 14 38 32 47 -15 37.47 +0.53
6 Shirak 28 5 8 15 23 24 55 -31 24.54 -1.54
7 Kilikia 28 5 5 18 20 22 51 -29 23.00 -3.00
8 Ararat 28 2 8 18 14 20 54 -34 29.03 -15.03

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ulisses 53 43.50 +9.50
2 Mika 58 51.36 +6.64
3 Pyunik 65 59.25 +5.75
4 Gandzasar Kapan 38 37.47 +0.53
5 Shirak 23 24.54 -1.54

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ararat 14 29.03 -15.03
2 Kilikia 20 23.00 -3.00
3 Banants 44 46.24 -2.24
4 Shirak 23 24.54 -1.54
5 Gandzasar Kapan 38 37.47 +0.53

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Banants 6 Apr 4 – May 13 1 in 79
2 Gandzasar Kapan 4 Jun 20 – Aug 2 1 in 50
3 Mika 6 May 16 – Jun 20 1 in 35
4 Pyunik 6 Mar 22 – May 2 1 in 26
5 Ararat 1 Aug 16 – Aug 16 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ararat 13 Mar 22 – Jun 27 1 in 123,836
2 Gandzasar Kapan 5 Mar 22 – Apr 26 1 in 184
3 Pyunik 2 Sep 14 – Sep 20 1 in 12
4 Ulisses 2 Sep 27 – Oct 4 1 in 11
5 Shirak 4 Oct 20 – Nov 7 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gandzasar Kapan 6 Jun 7 – Aug 2 1 in 44
2 Pyunik 16 Mar 22 – Aug 7 1 in 32
3 Mika 9 Apr 26 – Jun 20 1 in 19
4 Shirak 3 Jun 6 – Jun 21 1 in 15
5 Ararat 3 Jul 7 – Aug 1 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ararat 17 Mar 22 – Aug 7 1 in 1,980
2 Banants 5 Oct 3 – Nov 7 1 in 60
3 Shirak 12 May 23 – Aug 29 1 in 30
4 Gandzasar Kapan 5 Mar 22 – Apr 26 1 in 19
5 Pyunik 2 Jun 13 – Jun 21 1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Pyunik 1470 65 +83 15 11.5 +3.5
Mika 1336 58 -20 8 9.2 -1.2
Ulisses 1304 53 +4 10 9.2 +0.8
Banants 1237 44 -39 3 8.9 -5.9
Gandzasar Kapan 1142 38 +6 9 7.4 +1.6
Shirak 996 23 -53 1 4.1 -3.1
Kilikia 986 20 +9 4 3.2 +0.8
Ararat 1029 14 +10 5 2.8 +2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARA BAN GK KIL MIK PYU SHI ULI
Ararat —
0-2-2
3.06
1-0-3
4.47
0-2-2
6.83
0-1-3
2.73
1-1-2
2.12
0-1-3
6.47
0-1-3
3.17
Banants
2-2-0
8.18
 —
2-0-2
6.81
3-1-0
8.69
2-0-2
4.63
1-0-3
3.96
2-2-0
8.22
1-0-3
5.82
Gandzasar Kapan
3-0-1
6.75
2-0-2
4.40
 —
3-0-1
7.68
1-0-3
4.16
0-1-3
2.66
2-1-1
7.36
1-0-3
4.98
Kilikia
2-2-0
4.40
0-1-3
2.57
1-0-3
3.55
 —
1-0-3
2.08
0-0-4
1.66
1-2-1
5.07
0-0-4
3.00
Mika
3-1-0
8.54
2-0-2
6.59
3-0-1
7.07
3-0-1
9.23
 —
1-1-2
4.16
4-0-0
8.54
2-2-0
6.60
Pyunik
2-1-1
9.21
3-0-1
7.26
3-1-0
8.61
4-0-0
9.68
2-1-1
7.05
 —
3-1-0
9.72
3-1-0
7.64
Shirak
3-1-0
4.74
0-2-2
3.02
1-1-2
3.86
1-2-1
6.13
0-0-4
2.72
0-1-3
1.62
 —
0-1-3
3.07
Ulisses
3-1-0
8.09
3-0-1
5.39
3-0-1
6.25
4-0-0
8.26
0-2-2
4.61
0-1-3
3.59
3-1-0
8.18
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.96 +10.9
Allowed 0.84 -11.2
Differential 0.95 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.93%9.82%4.91%4.02%2.68%2.23%32.59%
19.82%6.25%7.14%3.57%1.34%0.89%29.02%
24.91%7.14%3.57%3.57%0.45%—19.64%
34.02%3.57%3.57%———11.16%
42.68%1.34%0.45%———4.46%
5+2.23%0.89%————3.12%
Total32.59%29.02%19.64%11.16%4.46%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.38 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.40 2.21
CV 1.02 1.02 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%17.86%14.29%7.14%—3.57%53.57%
13.57%10.71%3.57%3.57%—3.57%25.00%
2——7.14%7.14%3.57%—17.86%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%28.57%28.57%17.86%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.71 1.93 -1.21
SD 0.90 1.46 1.52
CV 1.26 0.76 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%14.29%————25.00%
114.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%3.57%—39.29%
23.57%10.71%—3.57%——17.86%
37.14%—3.57%———10.71%
4———————
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total39.29%35.71%10.71%10.71%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.04 +0.39
SD 1.37 1.14 1.83
CV 0.96 1.10 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%10.71%3.57%3.57%7.14%35.71%
114.29%—14.29%3.57%——32.14%
23.57%14.29%—3.57%——21.43%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total25.00%28.57%25.00%10.71%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.68 -0.54
SD 1.18 1.66 2.33
CV 1.03 0.99 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%21.43%3.57%10.71%3.57%3.57%46.43%
1—14.29%10.71%7.14%3.57%—35.71%
27.14%3.57%————10.71%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%39.29%21.43%17.86%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 1.82 -1.04
SD 0.92 1.28 1.71
CV 1.17 0.70 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%——3.57%3.57%—10.71%
17.14%—3.57%3.57%——14.29%
217.86%17.86%10.71%7.14%——53.57%
3—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total35.71%28.57%17.86%14.29%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.21 +0.89
SD 1.45 1.20 2.17
CV 0.69 0.99 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%3.57%———21.43%
114.29%3.57%————17.86%
27.14%3.57%3.57%———14.29%
310.71%7.14%3.57%———21.43%
414.29%3.57%————17.86%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total64.29%25.00%10.71%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 0.46 +1.82
SD 1.86 0.69 2.11
CV 0.82 1.49 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%10.71%3.57%3.57%10.71%3.57%50.00%
13.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%28.57%
2—3.57%3.57%3.57%——10.71%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+———————
Total21.43%28.57%17.86%10.71%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.96 -1.11
SD 1.11 1.77 2.15
CV 1.30 0.90 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
121.43%7.14%10.71%———39.29%
2—3.57%3.57%3.57%——10.71%
314.29%3.57%7.14%———25.00%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total50.00%17.86%25.00%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 0.89 +0.79
SD 1.33 1.03 1.83
CV 0.80 1.15 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Pyunik 1470 65 59.25 +5.75 87.0% 43 50 55 59 63 68 72
Mika 1336 58 51.36 +6.64 85.0% 38 40 47 51 55 62 65
Ulisses 1304 53 43.50 +9.50 89.0% 31 33 38 43 48 55 58
Banants 1237 44 46.24 -2.24 40.0% 27 35 41 46 51 57 62
Gandzasar Kapan 1142 38 37.47 +0.53 61.0% 22 25 33 37 42 48 55
Ararat 1029 14 29.03 -15.03 0.0% 16 18 26 29 33 37 42
Shirak 996 23 24.54 -1.54 44.0% 11 13 20 25 29 35 39
Kilikia 986 20 23.00 -3.00 42.0% 10 13 18 23 26 35 41

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.39%
Clear Edge
47.32%18.75%33.93%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 46.81 Elo pts.
167 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.45 goals
Neutral
-2+0.28+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.5
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
82%
Pyunik, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.25/gm
Comfortable
00.270.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.08 * Some Luck: 5.08 to 7.62 * Lucky: 7.62 to 10.16 * Wild Swing: 10.16 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.57 * Close: 0.57 to 0.86 * Off: 0.86 to 1.15 * Way Off: 1.15 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.16 points
Some Luck
06.3516
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Close
00.721.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
89.00%
Ulisses
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.00%
Ararat
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Top-Heavy
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 178.07
2.61
Strong Separation
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
84%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
94%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Frequent
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.45
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.41
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.29
Weak Carryover
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Very Shaky
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.85
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.04
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.102
Well Within Noise
00.1610.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Pyunik82.00%13.00%3.00%2.00%————
Mika11.00%48.00%30.00%11.00%————
Ulisses2.00%18.00%20.00%37.00%19.00%4.00%——
Banants4.00%20.00%33.00%27.00%12.00%3.00%—1.00%
Gandzasar Kapan1.00%1.00%12.00%17.00%45.00%15.00%8.00%1.00%
Shirak———2.00%4.00%24.00%34.00%36.00%
Kilikia——1.00%1.00%8.00%11.00%34.00%45.00%
Ararat——1.00%3.00%12.00%43.00%24.00%17.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Mika 100% —
Pyunik 100% —
Ulisses 100% —
Banants 99.00% 1.00%
Gandzasar Kapan 99.00% 1.00%
Ararat 83.00% 17.00%
Shirak 64.00% 36.00%
Kilikia 55.00% 45.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2009-03-21 Ulisses L 0-138.9 1039 1149 31.44% 19.78% 48.78%-0.38 -11.0 0
2009-03-21 @ Kilikia W 1-038.9 1149 1039 48.78% 19.78% 31.44%+0.38 +11.0 3
2009-03-22 Ararat W 1-046.8 1083 1266 22.96% 19.37% 57.66%-0.82 +18.3 3
2009-03-22 @ Shirak L 0-146.8 1266 1083 57.66% 19.37% 22.96%+0.82 -18.3 0
2009-03-22 Mika L 0-242.6 1249 1216 50.89% 19.71% 29.40%+0.48 -30.8 0
2009-03-22 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 2-042.6 1216 1249 29.40% 19.71% 50.89%-0.48 +30.8 3
2009-03-22 Banants W 1-038.2 1272 1226 52.58% 19.65% 27.78%+0.56 +9.9 3
2009-03-22 @ Pyunik L 0-138.2 1226 1272 27.78% 19.65% 52.58%-0.56 -9.9 0
2009-04-04 Gandzasar Kapan W 1-039.9 1216 1218 46.37% 19.83% 33.80%+0.27 +11.6 3
2009-04-04 @ Banants L 0-139.9 1218 1216 33.80% 19.83% 46.37%-0.27 -11.6 0
2009-04-04 Kilikia L 0-247.4 1248 1028 69.52% 18.02% 12.46%+1.60 -41.4 0
2009-04-04 @ Ararat W 2-047.4 1028 1248 12.46% 18.02% 69.52%-1.60 +41.4 3
2009-04-04 Pyunik L 0-334.5 1160 1282 29.85% 19.73% 50.42%-0.45 -28.7 3
2009-04-04 @ Ulisses W 3-034.5 1282 1160 50.42% 19.73% 29.85%+0.45 +28.7 6
2009-04-05 Shirak W 3-245.1 1247 1101 63.38% 18.88% 17.74%+1.16 +5.9 6
2009-04-05 @ Mika L 2-345.1 1101 1247 17.74% 18.88% 63.38%-1.16 -5.9 3
2009-04-11 Ararat W 2-035.6 1253 1206 52.63% 19.64% 27.72%+0.56 +18.5 9
2009-04-11 @ Mika L 0-235.6 1206 1253 27.72% 19.64% 52.63%-0.56 -18.5 0
2009-04-11 Kilikia W 1-032.4 1311 1069 71.07% 17.73% 11.20%+1.73 +4.3 9
2009-04-11 @ Pyunik L 0-132.4 1069 1311 11.20% 17.73% 71.07%-1.73 -4.3 3
2009-04-11 Ulisses L 1-251.7 1206 1131 56.07% 19.47% 24.46%+0.73 -16.8 0
2009-04-11 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 2-151.7 1131 1206 24.46% 19.47% 56.07%-0.73 +16.8 6
2009-04-11 Banants L 1-243.6 1095 1228 28.60% 19.68% 51.72%-0.52 -9.5 3
2009-04-11 @ Shirak W 2-143.6 1228 1095 51.72% 19.68% 28.60%+0.52 +9.5 6
2009-04-18 Gandzasar Kapan W 2-150.1 1065 1190 29.59% 19.72% 50.69%-0.47 +15.4 6
2009-04-18 @ Kilikia L 1-250.1 1190 1065 50.69% 19.72% 29.59%+0.47 -15.4 0
2009-04-18 Pyunik L 0-236.2 1188 1315 29.27% 19.71% 51.03%-0.48 -19.4 0
2009-04-18 @ Ararat W 2-036.2 1315 1188 51.03% 19.71% 29.27%+0.48 +19.4 12
2009-04-18 Shirak W 3-033.0 1148 1086 54.51% 19.56% 25.93%+0.65 +25.4 9
2009-04-18 @ Ulisses L 0-333.0 1086 1148 25.93% 19.56% 54.51%-0.65 -25.4 3
2009-04-19 Banants L 2-355.7 1272 1237 51.06% 19.71% 29.23%+0.48 -14.7 9
2009-04-19 @ Mika W 3-255.7 1237 1272 29.23% 19.71% 51.06%-0.48 +14.7 9
2009-04-25 Kilikia W 3-143.6 1060 1080 43.84% 19.87% 36.29%+0.16 +20.1 6
2009-04-25 @ Shirak L 1-343.6 1080 1060 36.29% 19.87% 43.84%-0.16 -20.1 6
2009-04-26 Ararat W 1-036.7 1252 1168 57.00% 19.42% 23.59%+0.78 +8.5 12
2009-04-26 @ Banants L 0-136.7 1168 1252 23.59% 19.42% 57.00%-0.78 -8.5 0
2009-04-26 Pyunik L 0-432.5 1174 1335 25.43% 19.53% 55.04%-0.68 -32.7 0
2009-04-26 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 4-032.5 1335 1174 55.04% 19.53% 25.43%+0.68 +32.7 15
2009-04-26 Ulisses D 0-050.4 1257 1173 56.99% 19.42% 23.60%+0.78 -2.8 10
2009-04-26 @ Mika D 0-050.4 1173 1257 23.60% 19.42% 56.99%-0.78 +2.8 10
2009-05-02 Mika L 1-241.4 1060 1254 21.90% 19.29% 58.81%-0.88 -7.5 6
2009-05-02 @ Kilikia W 2-141.4 1254 1060 58.81% 19.29% 21.90%+0.88 +7.6 13
2009-05-02 Shirak W 4-026.7 1367 1080 73.97% 17.07% 8.97%+2.00 +12.2 18
2009-05-02 @ Pyunik L 0-426.7 1080 1367 8.97% 17.07% 73.97%-2.00 -12.2 6
2009-05-03 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-241.8 1160 1142 49.03% 19.77% 31.21%+0.39 -29.8 0
2009-05-03 @ Ararat W 2-041.8 1142 1160 31.21% 19.77% 49.03%-0.39 +29.8 3
2009-05-03 Banants L 0-140.2 1176 1261 34.75% 19.85% 45.40%-0.23 -11.9 10
2009-05-03 @ Ulisses W 1-040.2 1261 1176 45.40% 19.85% 34.75%+0.23 +11.9 15
2009-05-10 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-050.0 1068 1171 32.29% 19.80% 47.91%-0.34 +1.2 7
2009-05-10 @ Shirak D 0-050.0 1171 1068 47.91% 19.80% 32.29%+0.34 -1.2 4
2009-05-10 Ulisses L 0-142.1 1130 1164 41.88% 19.88% 38.24%+0.08 -13.8 0
2009-05-10 @ Ararat W 1-042.1 1164 1130 38.24% 19.88% 41.88%-0.08 +13.8 13
2009-05-13 Kilikia W 3-028.5 1273 1053 69.52% 18.02% 12.46%+1.60 +12.9 18
2009-05-13 @ Banants L 0-328.5 1053 1273 12.46% 18.02% 69.52%-1.60 -12.9 6
2009-05-13 Pyunik D 2-261.4 1262 1379 30.45% 19.75% 49.80%-0.43 +1.0 14
2009-05-13 @ Mika D 2-261.4 1379 1262 49.80% 19.75% 30.45%+0.43 -1.0 19
2009-05-16 Gandzasar Kapan W 2-033.9 1263 1170 57.96% 19.35% 22.69%+0.83 +15.6 17
2009-05-16 @ Mika L 0-233.9 1170 1263 22.69% 19.35% 57.96%-0.83 -15.6 4
2009-05-17 Kilikia W 1-034.8 1178 1040 62.64% 18.96% 18.40%+1.11 +6.8 16
2009-05-17 @ Ulisses L 0-134.8 1040 1178 18.40% 18.96% 62.64%-1.11 -6.8 6
2009-05-17 Pyunik L 1-441.9 1286 1378 33.67% 19.83% 46.51%-0.28 -26.8 18
2009-05-17 @ Banants W 4-141.9 1378 1286 46.51% 19.83% 33.67%+0.28 +26.8 22
2009-05-17 Shirak L 1-348.4 1116 1069 52.66% 19.64% 27.70%+0.56 -27.5 0
2009-05-17 @ Ararat W 3-148.4 1069 1116 27.70% 19.64% 52.66%-0.56 +27.5 10
2009-05-23 Mika L 0-431.5 1097 1278 23.17% 19.39% 57.45%-0.81 -30.1 10
2009-05-23 @ Shirak W 4-031.5 1278 1097 57.45% 19.39% 23.17%+0.81 +30.1 20
2009-05-23 Ulisses W 3-244.0 1405 1185 69.55% 18.01% 12.43%+1.60 +4.2 25
2009-05-23 @ Pyunik L 2-344.0 1185 1405 12.43% 18.01% 69.55%-1.60 -4.2 16
2009-05-24 Ararat W 3-252.4 1033 1089 38.76% 19.89% 41.35%-0.05 +12.2 9
2009-05-24 @ Kilikia L 2-352.4 1089 1033 41.35% 19.89% 38.76%+0.05 -12.2 0
2009-05-24 Banants W 2-149.5 1155 1259 32.18% 19.80% 48.02%-0.34 +14.6 7
2009-05-24 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 1-249.5 1259 1155 48.02% 19.80% 32.18%+0.34 -14.6 18
2009-05-30 Pyunik L 1-335.1 1045 1409 9.72% 17.31% 72.97%-1.90 -6.0 9
2009-05-30 @ Kilikia W 3-135.1 1409 1045 72.97% 17.31% 9.72%+1.90 +6.0 28
2009-05-30 Shirak W 5-132.7 1244 1067 66.16% 18.54% 15.30%+1.34 +17.2 21
2009-05-30 @ Banants L 1-532.7 1067 1244 15.30% 18.54% 66.16%-1.34 -17.2 10
2009-05-31 Gandzasar Kapan W 5-034.3 1180 1169 48.11% 19.79% 32.09%+0.35 +49.1 19
2009-05-31 @ Ulisses L 0-534.3 1169 1180 32.09% 19.79% 48.11%-0.35 -49.1 7
2009-05-31 Mika L 0-134.9 1076 1308 18.39% 18.96% 62.65%-1.11 -6.8 0
2009-05-31 @ Ararat W 1-034.9 1308 1076 62.65% 18.96% 18.39%+1.11 +6.8 23
2009-06-06 Ulisses D 0-050.2 1050 1230 23.31% 19.40% 57.29%-0.80 +2.8 11
2009-06-06 @ Shirak D 0-050.2 1230 1050 57.29% 19.40% 23.31%+0.80 -2.8 20
2009-06-07 Kilikia W 1-036.5 1120 1039 56.70% 19.44% 23.86%+0.77 +8.6 10
2009-06-07 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-136.5 1039 1120 23.86% 19.44% 56.70%-0.77 -8.6 9
2009-06-13 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-051.4 1415 1129 73.95% 17.07% 8.98%+2.00 -5.7 29
2009-06-13 @ Pyunik D 0-051.4 1129 1415 8.98% 17.07% 73.95%-2.00 +5.7 11
2009-06-13 Mika L 1-245.8 1227 1315 34.26% 19.84% 45.90%-0.25 -11.1 20
2009-06-13 @ Ulisses W 2-145.8 1315 1227 45.90% 19.84% 34.26%+0.25 +11.1 26
2009-06-14 Shirak D 1-154.5 1030 1052 43.58% 19.87% 36.55%+0.15 -0.5 10
2009-06-14 @ Kilikia D 1-154.5 1052 1030 36.55% 19.87% 43.58%-0.15 +0.5 12
2009-06-14 Banants L 0-331.8 1070 1261 22.12% 19.31% 58.57%-0.87 -22.1 0
2009-06-14 @ Ararat W 3-031.8 1261 1070 58.57% 19.31% 22.12%+0.87 +22.1 24
2009-06-17 Mika L 1-248.1 1283 1326 40.62% 19.89% 39.49%+0.02 -12.7 24
2009-06-17 @ Banants W 2-148.1 1326 1283 39.49% 19.89% 40.62%-0.02 +12.7 29
2009-06-20 Ararat W 1-036.3 1134 1047 57.36% 19.39% 23.24%+0.80 +8.4 14
2009-06-20 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-136.3 1047 1134 23.24% 19.39% 57.36%-0.80 -8.4 0
2009-06-20 Kilikia W 2-136.5 1339 1030 75.25% 16.72% 8.03%+2.13 +2.9 32
2009-06-20 @ Mika L 1-236.5 1030 1339 8.03% 16.72% 75.25%-2.13 -2.9 10
2009-06-21 Pyunik D 0-051.0 1053 1410 10.08% 17.42% 72.49%-1.86 +5.5 13
2009-06-21 @ Shirak D 0-051.0 1410 1053 72.49% 17.42% 10.08%+1.86 -5.5 30
2009-06-21 Ulisses L 1-349.1 1271 1216 53.65% 19.60% 26.75%+0.61 -28.0 24
2009-06-21 @ Banants W 3-149.1 1216 1271 26.75% 19.60% 53.65%-0.61 +28.0 23
2009-06-27 Ararat W 3-028.9 1244 1039 68.37% 18.22% 13.42%+1.51 +13.9 26
2009-06-27 @ Ulisses L 0-328.9 1039 1244 13.42% 18.22% 68.37%-1.51 -13.9 0
2009-06-27 Shirak W 2-141.9 1143 1058 57.09% 19.41% 23.50%+0.79 +8.0 17
2009-06-27 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 1-241.9 1058 1143 23.50% 19.41% 57.09%-0.79 -8.0 13
2009-06-27 Banants L 0-232.8 1027 1243 19.83% 19.11% 61.06%-1.01 -13.8 10
2009-06-27 @ Kilikia W 2-032.8 1243 1027 61.06% 19.11% 19.83%+1.01 +13.8 27
2009-06-28 Mika W 3-035.5 1404 1342 54.52% 19.56% 25.92%+0.65 +25.4 33
2009-06-28 @ Pyunik L 0-335.5 1342 1404 25.92% 19.56% 54.52%-0.65 -25.4 32
2009-07-07 Ararat D 0-051.7 1430 1025 79.90% 15.12% 4.98%+2.70 -6.6 34
2009-07-07 @ Pyunik D 0-051.7 1025 1430 4.98% 15.12% 79.90%-2.70 +6.6 1
2009-07-25 Ararat D 2-260.2 1050 1032 49.08% 19.77% 31.16%+0.39 -1.0 14
2009-07-25 @ Shirak D 2-260.2 1032 1050 31.16% 19.77% 49.08%-0.39 +1.0 2
2009-07-26 Ulisses L 0-330.2 1013 1258 17.35% 18.83% 63.81%-1.18 -17.8 10
2009-07-26 @ Kilikia W 3-030.2 1258 1013 63.81% 18.83% 17.35%+1.18 +17.7 29
2009-07-27 Mika W 3-149.6 1151 1316 24.86% 19.50% 55.64%-0.71 +29.0 20
2009-07-27 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 1-349.6 1316 1151 55.64% 19.50% 24.86%+0.71 -29.0 32
2009-08-01 Kilikia D 1-154.5 1033 995 51.46% 19.69% 28.85%+0.50 -1.6 3
2009-08-01 @ Ararat D 1-154.5 995 1033 28.85% 19.69% 51.46%-0.50 +1.6 11
2009-08-01 Pyunik D 1-156.4 1275 1423 26.86% 19.61% 53.53%-0.60 +1.9 30
2009-08-01 @ Ulisses D 1-156.4 1423 1275 53.53% 19.61% 26.86%+0.60 -2.0 35
2009-08-02 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-146.5 1256 1180 56.18% 19.47% 24.35%+0.74 -17.9 27
2009-08-02 @ Banants W 1-046.5 1180 1256 24.35% 19.47% 56.18%-0.74 +17.9 23
2009-08-02 Shirak W 7-028.1 1287 1049 70.82% 17.78% 11.40%+1.71 +26.3 35
2009-08-02 @ Mika L 0-728.1 1049 1287 11.40% 17.78% 70.82%-1.71 -26.3 14
2009-08-07 Ararat W 5-130.5 1314 1031 73.71% 17.13% 9.16%+1.97 +10.4 38
2009-08-07 @ Mika L 1-530.5 1031 1314 9.16% 17.13% 73.71%-1.97 -10.4 3
2009-08-07 Kilikia W 1-029.5 1421 997 80.71% 14.78% 4.51%+2.82 +1.7 38
2009-08-07 @ Pyunik L 0-129.5 997 1421 4.51% 14.78% 80.71%-2.82 -1.7 11
2009-08-07 Ulisses L 0-336.3 1198 1277 35.47% 19.86% 44.67%-0.20 -33.1 23
2009-08-07 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 3-036.3 1277 1198 44.67% 19.86% 35.47%+0.20 +33.1 33
2009-08-07 Banants D 0-050.3 1023 1239 19.85% 19.11% 61.04%-1.01 +3.5 15
2009-08-07 @ Shirak D 0-050.3 1239 1023 61.04% 19.11% 19.85%+1.01 -3.5 28
2009-08-15 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-136.7 995 1165 24.45% 19.47% 56.08%-0.73 -8.8 11
2009-08-15 @ Kilikia W 1-036.7 1165 995 56.08% 19.47% 24.45%+0.73 +8.8 26
2009-08-15 Mika W 2-149.4 1235 1324 34.18% 19.84% 45.98%-0.25 +14.1 31
2009-08-15 @ Banants L 1-249.4 1324 1235 45.98% 19.84% 34.18%+0.25 -14.1 38
2009-08-16 Pyunik W 1-051.4 1021 1423 8.06% 16.73% 75.21%-2.13 +23.6 6
2009-08-16 @ Ararat L 0-151.4 1423 1021 75.21% 16.73% 8.06%+2.13 -23.6 38
2009-08-16 Shirak W 1-031.5 1310 1027 73.78% 17.11% 9.11%+1.98 +3.5 36
2009-08-16 @ Ulisses L 0-131.5 1027 1310 9.11% 17.11% 73.78%-1.98 -3.5 15
2009-08-19 Banants W 1-035.7 1399 1249 63.73% 18.84% 17.43%+1.18 +6.5 41
2009-08-19 @ Pyunik L 0-135.7 1249 1399 17.43% 18.84% 63.73%-1.18 -6.5 31
2009-08-22 Kilikia D 1-154.5 1023 987 51.37% 19.69% 28.93%+0.50 -1.6 16
2009-08-22 @ Shirak D 1-154.5 987 1023 28.93% 19.69% 51.37%-0.50 +1.6 12
2009-08-22 Ulisses W 2-038.3 1310 1314 46.09% 19.84% 34.08%+0.26 +22.1 41
2009-08-22 @ Mika L 0-238.3 1314 1310 34.08% 19.84% 46.09%-0.26 -22.1 36
2009-08-23 Ararat D 0-050.5 1243 1044 67.88% 18.29% 13.83%+1.47 -4.7 32
2009-08-23 @ Banants D 0-050.5 1044 1243 13.83% 18.29% 67.88%-1.47 +4.7 7
2009-08-23 Pyunik L 0-233.1 1174 1406 18.39% 18.96% 62.66%-1.11 -12.9 26
2009-08-23 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 2-033.1 1406 1174 62.66% 18.96% 18.39%+1.11 +12.9 44
2009-08-29 Shirak W 4-025.0 1418 1021 79.58% 15.25% 5.17%+2.66 +6.9 47
2009-08-29 @ Pyunik L 0-425.0 1021 1418 5.17% 15.25% 79.58%-2.66 -6.9 16
2009-08-30 Gandzasar Kapan L 1-244.3 1049 1161 31.22% 19.77% 49.01%-0.39 -10.3 7
2009-08-30 @ Ararat W 2-144.3 1161 1049 49.01% 19.77% 31.22%+0.39 +10.3 29
2009-08-30 Mika W 3-260.9 988 1332 10.75% 17.61% 71.65%-1.78 +20.2 15
2009-08-30 @ Kilikia L 2-360.9 1332 988 71.65% 17.61% 10.75%+1.78 -20.2 41
2009-08-30 Banants W 1-038.0 1292 1238 53.50% 19.61% 26.89%+0.60 +9.6 39
2009-08-30 @ Ulisses L 0-138.0 1238 1292 26.89% 19.61% 53.50%-0.60 -9.6 32
2009-09-12 Gandzasar Kapan W 2-151.2 1015 1171 25.87% 19.56% 54.57%-0.66 +16.4 19
2009-09-12 @ Shirak L 1-251.2 1171 1015 54.57% 19.56% 25.87%+0.66 -16.4 29
2009-09-12 Kilikia W 5-027.8 1228 1008 69.52% 18.02% 12.46%+1.60 +20.8 35
2009-09-12 @ Banants L 0-527.8 1008 1228 12.46% 18.02% 69.52%-1.60 -20.8 15
2009-09-12 Ulisses D 1-155.0 1039 1301 15.92% 18.64% 65.44%-1.29 +3.8 8
2009-09-12 @ Ararat D 1-155.0 1301 1039 65.44% 18.64% 15.92%+1.29 -3.8 40
2009-09-14 Pyunik W 2-044.2 1312 1425 31.00% 19.76% 49.24%-0.40 +29.9 44
2009-09-14 @ Mika L 0-244.2 1425 1312 49.24% 19.76% 31.00%+0.40 -29.9 47
2009-09-19 Gandzasar Kapan W 3-137.0 1342 1154 66.98% 18.43% 14.59%+1.40 +9.0 47
2009-09-19 @ Mika L 1-337.0 1154 1342 14.59% 18.43% 66.98%-1.40 -9.0 29
2009-09-19 Shirak L 2-451.0 1042 1031 48.15% 19.79% 32.06%+0.35 -22.7 8
2009-09-19 @ Ararat W 4-251.0 1031 1042 32.06% 19.79% 48.15%-0.35 +22.7 22
2009-09-20 Kilikia W 4-026.1 1298 988 75.29% 16.71% 8.00%+2.14 +10.9 43
2009-09-20 @ Ulisses L 0-426.1 988 1298 8.00% 16.71% 75.29%-2.14 -10.8 15
2009-09-20 Pyunik W 1-046.7 1249 1395 27.04% 19.61% 53.35%-0.59 +17.1 38
2009-09-20 @ Banants L 0-146.7 1395 1249 53.35% 19.61% 27.04%+0.59 -17.1 47
2009-09-26 Mika L 0-133.2 1054 1351 13.50% 18.23% 68.27%-1.50 -5.1 22
2009-09-26 @ Shirak W 1-033.2 1351 1054 68.27% 18.23% 13.50%+1.50 +5.1 50
2009-09-26 Banants L 1-244.1 1145 1266 30.07% 19.73% 50.20%-0.44 -9.9 29
2009-09-26 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 2-144.1 1266 1145 50.20% 19.73% 30.07%+0.44 +9.9 41
2009-09-27 Ulisses W 2-144.1 1378 1308 55.42% 19.51% 25.07%+0.70 +8.5 50
2009-09-27 @ Pyunik L 1-244.1 1308 1378 25.07% 19.51% 55.42%-0.70 -8.5 43
2009-09-28 Ararat D 0-050.0 977 1020 40.60% 19.89% 39.52%+0.02 -0.1 16
2009-09-28 @ Kilikia D 0-050.0 1020 977 39.52% 19.89% 40.60%-0.02 +0.1 9
2009-10-03 Pyunik L 0-326.7 977 1387 7.74% 16.60% 75.66%-2.18 -8.0 16
2009-10-03 @ Kilikia W 3-026.7 1387 977 75.66% 16.60% 7.74%+2.18 +8.0 53
2009-10-03 Shirak D 0-050.7 1276 1049 70.08% 17.92% 12.00%+1.64 -5.1 42
2009-10-03 @ Banants D 0-050.7 1049 1276 12.00% 17.92% 70.08%-1.64 +5.1 23
2009-10-04 Gandzasar Kapan L 1-254.3 1300 1136 65.03% 18.69% 16.28%+1.26 -19.4 43
2009-10-04 @ Ulisses W 2-154.3 1136 1300 16.28% 18.69% 65.03%-1.26 +19.4 32
2009-10-04 Mika D 2-261.0 1020 1356 11.17% 17.72% 71.12%-1.73 +3.5 10
2009-10-04 @ Ararat D 2-261.0 1356 1020 71.12% 17.72% 11.17%+1.73 -3.5 51
2009-10-20 Ararat W 6-025.6 1395 1023 78.43% 15.69% 5.88%+2.51 +11.5 56
2009-10-20 @ Pyunik L 0-625.6 1023 1395 5.88% 15.69% 78.43%-2.51 -11.5 10
2009-10-20 Kilikia W 4-134.3 1155 969 66.90% 18.44% 14.66%+1.40 +12.8 35
2009-10-20 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 1-434.3 969 1155 14.66% 18.44% 66.90%-1.40 -12.8 16
2009-10-20 Ulisses L 0-135.0 1054 1281 18.84% 19.01% 62.15%-1.08 -7.0 23
2009-10-20 @ Shirak W 1-035.0 1281 1054 62.15% 19.01% 18.84%+1.08 +7.0 46
2009-10-20 Banants W 3-140.8 1352 1271 56.70% 19.44% 23.86%+0.77 +14.1 54
2009-10-20 @ Mika L 1-340.8 1271 1352 23.86% 19.44% 56.70%-0.77 -14.1 42
2009-10-25 Gandzasar Kapan W 7-028.8 1406 1168 70.86% 17.77% 11.37%+1.71 +26.2 59
2009-10-25 @ Pyunik L 0-728.8 1168 1406 11.37% 17.77% 70.86%-1.71 -26.2 35
2009-10-25 Mika D 2-261.5 1288 1367 35.53% 19.86% 44.61%-0.19 +0.5 47
2009-10-25 @ Ulisses D 2-261.5 1367 1288 44.61% 19.86% 35.53%+0.19 -0.5 55
2009-10-25 Shirak W 2-040.9 956 1047 33.94% 19.83% 46.23%-0.26 +28.3 19
2009-10-25 @ Kilikia L 0-240.9 1047 956 46.23% 19.83% 33.94%+0.26 -28.3 23
2009-10-25 Banants D 1-154.9 1012 1257 17.28% 18.82% 63.89%-1.19 +3.6 11
2009-10-25 @ Ararat D 1-154.9 1257 1012 63.89% 18.82% 17.28%+1.19 -3.6 43
2009-11-01 Ararat L 2-358.2 1142 1015 61.46% 19.07% 19.47%+1.04 -17.4 35
2009-11-01 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 3-258.2 1015 1142 19.47% 19.07% 61.46%-1.04 +17.4 14
2009-11-01 Kilikia W 2-135.4 1366 984 78.91% 15.51% 5.58%+2.57 +2.0 58
2009-11-01 @ Mika L 1-235.4 984 1366 5.58% 15.51% 78.91%-2.57 -2.0 19
2009-11-01 Pyunik L 1-334.3 1018 1433 7.58% 16.54% 75.88%-2.20 -4.7 23
2009-11-01 @ Shirak W 3-134.3 1433 1018 75.88% 16.54% 7.58%+2.20 +4.7 62
2009-11-01 Ulisses L 2-353.1 1254 1288 41.83% 19.88% 38.29%+0.07 -12.4 43
2009-11-01 @ Banants W 3-253.1 1288 1254 38.29% 19.88% 41.83%-0.07 +12.4 50
2009-11-07 Ararat W 3-242.3 1300 1033 72.77% 17.36% 9.87%+1.88 +3.4 53
2009-11-07 @ Ulisses L 2-342.3 1033 1300 9.87% 17.36% 72.77%-1.88 -3.4 14
2009-11-07 Mika W 4-035.7 1437 1368 55.35% 19.51% 25.14%+0.70 +32.4 65
2009-11-07 @ Pyunik L 0-435.7 1368 1437 25.14% 19.51% 55.35%-0.70 -32.3 58
2009-11-07 Shirak W 4-136.4 1124 1014 59.87% 19.21% 20.92%+0.94 +17.8 38
2009-11-07 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 1-436.4 1014 1124 20.92% 19.21% 59.87%-0.94 -17.8 23
2009-11-07 Banants D 1-154.9 982 1241 16.20% 18.68% 65.12%-1.27 +3.8 20
2009-11-07 @ Kilikia D 1-154.9 1241 982 65.12% 18.68% 16.20%+1.27 -3.8 44

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2009-08-16 8.06% @ Ararat 1021 1 Pyunik 1423 0
2 2009-08-30 10.75% @ Kilikia 988 3 Mika 1332 2
3 2009-04-04 12.46% Kilikia 1028 2 @ Ararat 1248 0
4 2009-10-04 16.28% Gandzasar Kapan 1136 2 @ Ulisses 1300 1
5 2009-11-01 19.47% Ararat 1015 3 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1142 2
6 2009-03-22 22.96% @ Shirak 1083 1 Ararat 1266 0
7 2009-08-02 24.35% Gandzasar Kapan 1180 1 @ Banants 1256 0
8 2009-04-11 24.46% Ulisses 1131 2 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1206 1
9 2009-07-27 24.86% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1151 3 Mika 1316 1
10 2009-09-12 25.87% @ Shirak 1015 2 Gandzasar Kapan 1171 1
11 2009-06-21 26.75% Ulisses 1216 3 @ Banants 1271 1
12 2009-09-20 27.04% @ Banants 1249 1 Pyunik 1395 0
13 2009-05-17 27.70% Shirak 1069 3 @ Ararat 1116 1
14 2009-04-19 29.23% Banants 1237 3 @ Mika 1272 2
15 2009-03-22 29.40% Mika 1216 2 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1249 0
16 2009-04-18 29.59% @ Kilikia 1065 2 Gandzasar Kapan 1190 1
17 2009-09-14 31.00% @ Mika 1312 2 Pyunik 1425 0
18 2009-05-03 31.21% Gandzasar Kapan 1142 2 @ Ararat 1160 0
19 2009-09-19 32.06% Shirak 1031 4 @ Ararat 1042 2
20 2009-05-24 32.18% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1155 2 Banants 1259 1
21 2009-10-25 33.94% @ Kilikia 956 2 Shirak 1047 0
22 2009-08-15 34.18% @ Banants 1235 2 Mika 1324 1
23 2009-05-10 38.24% Ulisses 1164 1 @ Ararat 1130 0
24 2009-11-01 38.29% Ulisses 1288 3 @ Banants 1254 2
25 2009-05-24 38.76% @ Kilikia 1033 3 Ararat 1089 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-05-31 49.10 @ Ulisses 5 1180 48.11% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1169 32.09% 19.79%
2 2009-04-04 41.41 Kilikia 2 1028 12.46% @ Ararat 0 1248 69.52% 18.02%
3 2009-08-07 33.12 Ulisses 3 1277 44.67% @ Gandzasar Kapan 0 1198 35.47% 19.86%
4 2009-04-26 32.67 Pyunik 4 1335 55.04% @ Gandzasar Kapan 0 1174 25.43% 19.53%
5 2009-11-07 32.35 @ Pyunik 4 1437 55.35% Mika 0 1368 25.14% 19.51%
6 2009-03-22 30.82 Mika 2 1216 29.40% @ Gandzasar Kapan 0 1249 50.89% 19.71%
7 2009-05-23 30.11 Mika 4 1278 57.45% @ Shirak 0 1097 23.17% 19.39%
8 2009-09-14 29.93 @ Mika 2 1312 31.00% Pyunik 0 1425 49.24% 19.76%
9 2009-05-03 29.82 Gandzasar Kapan 2 1142 31.21% @ Ararat 0 1160 49.03% 19.77%
10 2009-07-27 28.95 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1151 24.86% Mika 1 1316 55.64% 19.50%
11 2009-04-04 28.70 Pyunik 3 1282 50.42% @ Ulisses 0 1160 29.85% 19.73%
12 2009-10-25 28.34 @ Kilikia 2 956 33.94% Shirak 0 1047 46.23% 19.83%
13 2009-06-21 28.00 Ulisses 3 1216 26.75% @ Banants 1 1271 53.65% 19.60%
14 2009-05-17 27.53 Shirak 3 1069 27.70% @ Ararat 1 1116 52.66% 19.64%
15 2009-05-17 26.76 Pyunik 4 1378 46.51% @ Banants 1 1286 33.67% 19.83%
16 2009-08-02 26.28 @ Mika 7 1287 70.82% Shirak 0 1049 11.40% 17.78%
17 2009-10-25 26.21 @ Pyunik 7 1406 70.86% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1168 11.37% 17.77%
18 2009-04-18 25.44 @ Ulisses 3 1148 54.51% Shirak 0 1086 25.93% 19.56%
19 2009-06-28 25.43 @ Pyunik 3 1404 54.52% Mika 0 1342 25.92% 19.56%
20 2009-08-16 23.63 @ Ararat 1 1021 8.06% Pyunik 0 1423 75.21% 16.73%
21 2009-09-19 22.73 Shirak 4 1031 32.06% @ Ararat 2 1042 48.15% 19.79%
22 2009-06-14 22.13 Banants 3 1261 58.57% @ Ararat 0 1070 22.12% 19.31%
23 2009-08-22 22.07 @ Mika 2 1310 46.09% Ulisses 0 1314 34.08% 19.84%
24 2009-09-12 20.84 @ Banants 5 1228 69.52% Kilikia 0 1008 12.46% 18.02%
25 2009-08-30 20.22 @ Kilikia 3 988 10.75% Mika 2 1332 71.65% 17.61%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-10-25 61.5 @ Ulisses 2 1288 35.53% Mika 2 1367 44.61% 19.86%
2 2009-05-13 61.4 @ Mika 2 1262 30.45% Pyunik 2 1379 49.80% 19.75%
3 2009-10-04 61.0 @ Ararat 2 1020 11.17% Mika 2 1356 71.12% 17.72%
4 2009-08-30 60.9 @ Kilikia 3 988 10.75% Mika 2 1332 71.65% 17.61%
5 2009-07-25 60.2 @ Shirak 2 1050 49.08% Ararat 2 1032 31.16% 19.77%
6 2009-11-01 58.2 Ararat 3 1015 19.47% @ Gandzasar Kapan 2 1142 61.46% 19.07%
7 2009-08-01 56.4 @ Ulisses 1 1275 26.86% Pyunik 1 1423 53.53% 19.61%
8 2009-04-19 55.7 Banants 3 1237 29.23% @ Mika 2 1272 51.06% 19.71%
9 2009-09-12 55.0 @ Ararat 1 1039 15.92% Ulisses 1 1301 65.44% 18.64%
10 2009-10-25 54.9 @ Ararat 1 1012 17.28% Banants 1 1257 63.89% 18.82%
11 2009-11-07 54.9 @ Kilikia 1 982 16.20% Banants 1 1241 65.12% 18.68%
12 2009-06-14 54.5 @ Kilikia 1 1030 43.58% Shirak 1 1052 36.55% 19.87%
13 2009-08-01 54.5 @ Ararat 1 1033 51.46% Kilikia 1 995 28.85% 19.69%
14 2009-08-22 54.5 @ Shirak 1 1023 51.37% Kilikia 1 987 28.93% 19.69%
15 2009-10-04 54.3 Gandzasar Kapan 2 1136 16.28% @ Ulisses 1 1300 65.03% 18.69%
16 2009-11-01 53.1 Ulisses 3 1288 38.29% @ Banants 2 1254 41.83% 19.88%
17 2009-05-24 52.4 @ Kilikia 3 1033 38.76% Ararat 2 1089 41.35% 19.89%
18 2009-04-11 51.7 Ulisses 2 1131 24.46% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1206 56.07% 19.47%
19 2009-07-07 51.7 @ Pyunik 0 1430 79.90% Ararat 0 1025 4.98% 15.12%
20 2009-06-13 51.4 @ Pyunik 0 1415 73.95% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1129 8.98% 17.07%
21 2009-08-16 51.4 @ Ararat 1 1021 8.06% Pyunik 0 1423 75.21% 16.73%
22 2009-09-12 51.2 @ Shirak 2 1015 25.87% Gandzasar Kapan 1 1171 54.57% 19.56%
23 2009-06-21 51.0 @ Shirak 0 1053 10.08% Pyunik 0 1410 72.49% 17.42%
24 2009-09-19 51.0 Shirak 4 1031 32.06% @ Ararat 2 1042 48.15% 19.79%
25 2009-10-03 50.7 @ Banants 0 1276 70.08% Shirak 0 1049 12.00% 17.92%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-08-29 25.0 @ Pyunik 4 1418 79.58% Shirak 0 1021 5.17% 15.25%
2 2009-10-20 25.6 @ Pyunik 6 1395 78.43% Ararat 0 1023 5.88% 15.69%
3 2009-09-20 26.1 @ Ulisses 4 1298 75.29% Kilikia 0 988 8.00% 16.71%
4 2009-05-02 26.7 @ Pyunik 4 1367 73.97% Shirak 0 1080 8.97% 17.07%
5 2009-10-03 26.7 Pyunik 3 1387 75.66% @ Kilikia 0 977 7.74% 16.60%
6 2009-09-12 27.8 @ Banants 5 1228 69.52% Kilikia 0 1008 12.46% 18.02%
7 2009-08-02 28.1 @ Mika 7 1287 70.82% Shirak 0 1049 11.40% 17.78%
8 2009-05-13 28.5 @ Banants 3 1273 69.52% Kilikia 0 1053 12.46% 18.02%
9 2009-10-25 28.8 @ Pyunik 7 1406 70.86% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1168 11.37% 17.77%
10 2009-06-27 28.9 @ Ulisses 3 1244 68.37% Ararat 0 1039 13.42% 18.22%
11 2009-08-07 29.5 @ Pyunik 1 1421 80.71% Kilikia 0 997 4.51% 14.78%
12 2009-07-26 30.2 Ulisses 3 1258 63.81% @ Kilikia 0 1013 17.35% 18.83%
13 2009-08-07 30.5 @ Mika 5 1314 73.71% Ararat 1 1031 9.16% 17.13%
14 2009-05-23 31.5 Mika 4 1278 57.45% @ Shirak 0 1097 23.17% 19.39%
15 2009-08-16 31.5 @ Ulisses 1 1310 73.78% Shirak 0 1027 9.11% 17.11%
16 2009-06-14 31.8 Banants 3 1261 58.57% @ Ararat 0 1070 22.12% 19.31%
17 2009-04-11 32.4 @ Pyunik 1 1311 71.07% Kilikia 0 1069 11.20% 17.73%
18 2009-04-26 32.5 Pyunik 4 1335 55.04% @ Gandzasar Kapan 0 1174 25.43% 19.53%
19 2009-05-30 32.7 @ Banants 5 1244 66.16% Shirak 1 1067 15.30% 18.54%
20 2009-06-27 32.8 Banants 2 1243 61.06% @ Kilikia 0 1027 19.83% 19.11%
21 2009-04-18 33.0 @ Ulisses 3 1148 54.51% Shirak 0 1086 25.93% 19.56%
22 2009-08-23 33.1 Pyunik 2 1406 62.66% @ Gandzasar Kapan 0 1174 18.39% 18.96%
23 2009-09-26 33.2 Mika 1 1351 68.27% @ Shirak 0 1054 13.50% 18.23%
24 2009-05-16 33.9 @ Mika 2 1263 57.96% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1170 22.69% 19.35%
25 2009-05-31 34.3 @ Ulisses 5 1180 48.11% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1169 32.09% 19.79%