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2010 Armenian Premier League Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Pyunik

65 points · 13th Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Banants

11.51 points above expected

64 points · 52.49 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Shirak

7.43 points below expected

10 points · 17.43 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Pyunik Champion 28 20 5 3 65 73 22 +51 64.05 +0.95
2 Banants 28 20 4 4 64 58 24 +34 52.49 +11.51
3 Ulisses 28 17 4 7 55 44 23 +21 52.88 +2.12
4 Mika 28 14 4 10 46 47 31 +16 49.38 -3.38
5 Impuls 28 10 7 11 37 31 43 -12 31.80 +5.20
6 Gandzasar Kapan 28 8 3 17 27 24 45 -21 30.77 -3.77
7 Kilikia 28 4 3 21 15 19 62 -43 20.23 -5.23
8 Shirak 28 2 4 22 10 22 68 -46 17.43 -7.43

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Banants 64 52.49 +11.51
2 Impuls 37 31.80 +5.20
3 Ulisses 55 52.88 +2.12
4 Pyunik 65 64.05 +0.95
5 Mika 46 49.38 -3.38

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shirak 10 17.43 -7.43
2 Kilikia 15 20.23 -5.23
3 Gandzasar Kapan 27 30.77 -3.77
4 Mika 46 49.38 -3.38
5 Pyunik 65 64.05 +0.95

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Banants 11 May 1 – Aug 6 1 in 638
2 Ulisses 4 Jun 13 – Jul 27 1 in 16
3 Mika 5 Aug 14 – Sep 19 1 in 13
4 Impuls 3 Oct 23 – Nov 6 1 in 10
5 Kilikia 2 Mar 28 – Apr 3 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pyunik 3 Jun 13 – Jun 26 1 in 189
2 Shirak 9 Jun 5 – Aug 21 1 in 41
3 Ulisses 2 Sep 19 – Sep 26 1 in 22
4 Kilikia 9 Sep 11 – Nov 14 1 in 19
5 Impuls 4 May 15 – Jun 13 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Banants 15 Apr 3 – Aug 6 1 in 526
2 Impuls 4 Jun 20 – Aug 1 1 in 29
3 Gandzasar Kapan 2 Jun 19 – Jun 26 1 in 12
4 Pyunik 15 Jul 3 – Nov 14 1 in 12
5 Shirak 2 Oct 3 – Oct 17 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pyunik 3 Jun 13 – Jun 26 1 in 26
2 Mika 5 Jun 19 – Aug 5 1 in 26
3 Impuls 6 Aug 6 – Sep 18 1 in 21
4 Shirak 13 Jun 5 – Sep 27 1 in 9
5 Kilikia 12 Aug 14 – Nov 14 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Pyunik 1479 65 +21 13 11.6 +1.4
Banants 1351 64 -20 9 10.3 -1.3
Ulisses 1313 55 +38 10 8.5 +1.5
Mika 1245 46 -7 9 10.4 -1.4
Impuls 1099 37 +25 10 7.0 +3.0
Gandzasar Kapan 1062 27 -20 4 4.9 -0.9
Kilikia 848 15 -27 0 1.8 -1.8
Shirak 898 10 -10 2 2.5 -0.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BAN GK IMP KIL MIK PYU SHI ULI
Banants —
4-0-0
8.46
4-0-0
8.55
4-0-0
9.65
3-0-1
5.75
1-2-1
3.84
3-1-0
10.00
1-1-2
5.69
Gandzasar Kapan
0-0-4
2.92
 —
1-1-2
5.54
3-0-1
7.40
0-1-3
2.87
1-0-3
1.65
3-1-0
7.76
0-0-4
2.86
Impuls
0-0-4
2.83
2-1-1
5.81
 —
2-1-1
7.44
1-1-2
2.82
0-3-1
1.61
3-1-0
7.80
2-0-2
2.72
Kilikia
0-0-4
1.78
1-0-3
3.96
1-1-2
3.93
 —
0-1-3
1.93
0-0-4
1.07
2-0-2
6.07
0-1-3
1.67
Mika
1-0-3
5.61
3-1-0
8.51
2-1-1
8.56
3-1-0
9.48
 —
0-0-4
3.62
4-0-0
9.65
1-1-2
5.19
Pyunik
1-2-1
7.52
3-0-1
9.78
1-3-0
9.81
4-0-0
10.40
4-0-0
7.74
 —
4-0-0
10.26
3-0-1
7.52
Shirak
0-1-3
1.44
0-1-3
3.60
0-1-3
3.56
2-0-2
5.28
0-0-4
1.76
0-0-4
1.20
 —
0-1-3
1.50
Ulisses
2-1-1
5.67
4-0-0
8.51
2-0-2
8.66
3-1-0
9.75
2-1-1
6.16
1-0-3
3.84
3-1-0
9.93
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.87 +10.3
Allowed 0.95 -11.6
Differential 0.97 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%11.61%7.14%5.80%1.34%1.34%30.80%
111.61%6.25%5.80%2.23%1.79%2.68%30.36%
27.14%5.80%3.57%1.34%0.89%0.45%19.20%
35.80%2.23%1.34%1.79%——11.16%
41.34%1.79%0.89%———4.02%
5+1.34%2.68%0.45%———4.46%
Total30.80%30.36%19.20%11.16%4.02%4.46%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.42 +0.00
SD 1.41 1.41 2.20
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%3.57%—3.57%—14.29%
117.86%7.14%————25.00%
210.71%14.29%7.14%———32.14%
310.71%—3.57%———14.29%
4———————
5+3.57%7.14%3.57%———14.29%
Total42.86%35.71%17.86%—3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 0.86 +1.21
SD 1.61 0.97 1.97
CV 0.78 1.13 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—21.43%3.57%14.29%—3.57%42.86%
114.29%7.14%10.71%3.57%—3.57%39.29%
27.14%—————7.14%
37.14%——3.57%——10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%28.57%14.29%21.43%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.61 -0.75
SD 0.97 1.57 2.08
CV 1.13 0.98 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%——35.71%
110.71%7.14%———3.57%21.43%
23.57%21.43%7.14%3.57%—3.57%39.29%
3———3.57%——3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%42.86%14.29%14.29%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.54 -0.43
SD 0.96 1.48 1.64
CV 0.86 0.96 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%21.43%17.86%—3.57%60.71%
1—3.57%3.57%3.57%10.71%—21.43%
2—3.57%——3.57%—7.14%
3—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%25.00%28.57%21.43%14.29%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.68 2.21 -1.54
SD 1.02 1.29 1.69
CV 1.50 0.58 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%10.71%———21.43%
117.86%7.14%7.14%3.57%——35.71%
210.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%—25.00%
3———————
43.57%7.14%————10.71%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total35.71%32.14%21.43%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.11 +0.57
SD 1.59 1.10 2.01
CV 0.95 0.99 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%————7.14%
114.29%7.14%—3.57%——25.00%
27.14%—3.57%3.57%——14.29%
317.86%3.57%—3.57%——25.00%
43.57%3.57%7.14%———14.29%
5+7.14%7.14%————14.29%
Total53.57%25.00%10.71%10.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 0.79 +1.82
SD 1.62 1.03 1.91
CV 0.62 1.31 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—21.43%7.14%7.14%7.14%3.57%46.43%
1—7.14%14.29%3.57%3.57%10.71%39.29%
23.57%—3.57%———7.14%
3———3.57%——3.57%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total3.57%32.14%25.00%14.29%10.71%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 2.43 -1.64
SD 0.99 1.57 1.93
CV 1.27 0.65 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%3.57%———17.86%
117.86%3.57%10.71%——3.57%35.71%
214.29%3.57%3.57%———21.43%
310.71%7.14%3.57%———21.43%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total53.57%21.43%21.43%——3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 0.82 +0.75
SD 1.14 1.16 1.76
CV 0.72 1.41 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Pyunik 1479 65 64.05 +0.95 55.0% 48 54 60 64 68 73 77
Banants 1351 64 52.49 +11.51 97.0% 35 44 49 52 57 62 68
Ulisses 1313 55 52.88 +2.12 69.0% 37 43 49 53 56 61 66
Mika 1245 46 49.38 -3.38 29.0% 31 40 46 49 54 58 64
Impuls 1099 37 31.80 +5.20 84.0% 17 21 27 31 35 43 48
Gandzasar Kapan 1062 27 30.77 -3.77 31.0% 16 19 26 31 35 42 51
Shirak 898 10 17.43 -7.43 7.0% 5 9 14 17 20 27 29
Kilikia 848 15 20.23 -5.23 22.0% 10 11 16 20 24 29 33

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.25%
Slight Edge
45.54%15.18%39.29%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 21.74 Elo pts.
177 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.39 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.5
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
82%
Pyunik, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.04/gm
Photo Finish
00.300.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.69 * Some Luck: 4.69 to 7.04 * Lucky: 7.04 to 9.39 * Wild Swing: 9.39 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.48 * Close: 0.48 to 0.72 * Off: 0.72 to 0.96 * Way Off: 0.96 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.84 points
Some Luck
05.8715
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.25
Pinpoint
00.601.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
97.00%
Banants
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
7.00%
Shirak
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Lopsided
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 223.02
2.88
Wide Separation
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
85%
Clear Edge
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Some Drama
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.45
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.06
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.86
Near-Lock
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Solid Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.86
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.43
Very Underconfident
0.436521.001.56348
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.075
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Pyunik82.00%14.00%4.00%—————
Banants6.00%39.00%27.00%26.00%1.00%1.00%——
Ulisses5.00%34.00%36.00%24.00%1.00%———
Mika7.00%13.00%33.00%44.00%2.00%1.00%——
Impuls———2.00%47.00%43.00%8.00%—
Gandzasar Kapan———4.00%45.00%33.00%14.00%4.00%
Kilikia————3.00%17.00%42.00%38.00%
Shirak————1.00%5.00%36.00%58.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Banants 100% —
Impuls 100% —
Mika 100% —
Pyunik 100% —
Ulisses 100% —
Gandzasar Kapan 96.00% 4.00%
Kilikia 62.00% 38.00%
Shirak 42.00% 58.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2010-03-27 Pyunik L 0-326.4 1017 1367 9.77% 14.69% 75.54%-1.85 -10.2 0
2010-03-27 @ Shirak W 3-026.4 1367 1017 75.54% 14.69% 9.77%+1.85 +10.2 3
2010-03-27 Ulisses L 0-331.3 1087 1241 24.94% 15.86% 59.20%-0.75 -24.8 0
2010-03-27 @ Impuls W 3-031.3 1241 1087 59.20% 15.86% 24.94%+0.75 +24.8 3
2010-03-28 Gandzasar Kapan W 3-147.8 1012 1121 30.25% 16.00% 53.75%-0.49 +29.0 3
2010-03-28 @ Kilikia L 1-347.8 1121 1012 53.75% 16.00% 30.25%+0.49 -29.0 0
2010-03-28 Banants W 4-032.1 1258 1192 53.82% 15.99% 30.19%+0.49 +38.5 3
2010-03-28 @ Mika L 0-432.1 1192 1258 30.19% 15.99% 53.82%-0.49 -38.5 0
2010-04-02 Mika W 4-245.7 1377 1296 55.67% 15.96% 28.38%+0.58 +14.9 6
2010-04-02 @ Pyunik L 2-445.7 1296 1377 28.38% 15.96% 55.67%-0.58 -14.9 3
2010-04-02 Ulisses L 0-136.0 1092 1266 22.82% 15.78% 61.40%-0.86 -8.4 0
2010-04-02 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 1-036.0 1266 1092 61.40% 15.78% 22.82%+0.86 +8.4 6
2010-04-03 Impuls W 5-239.7 1154 1062 57.03% 15.92% 27.05%+0.64 +19.5 3
2010-04-03 @ Banants L 2-539.7 1062 1154 27.05% 15.92% 57.03%-0.64 -19.5 0
2010-04-03 Shirak W 3-141.9 1041 1006 49.85% 16.05% 34.09%+0.32 +19.5 6
2010-04-03 @ Kilikia L 1-341.9 1006 1041 34.09% 16.05% 49.85%-0.32 -19.5 0
2010-04-10 Pyunik D 0-052.8 1043 1392 9.82% 14.70% 75.48%-1.85 +6.1 1
2010-04-10 @ Impuls D 0-052.8 1392 1043 75.48% 14.70% 9.82%+1.85 -6.1 7
2010-04-10 Banants D 2-262.4 1274 1174 58.09% 15.89% 26.02%+0.69 -1.9 7
2010-04-10 @ Ulisses D 2-262.4 1174 1274 26.02% 15.89% 58.09%-0.69 +1.9 4
2010-04-11 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-138.6 987 1083 31.74% 16.02% 52.24%-0.42 -11.2 0
2010-04-11 @ Shirak W 1-038.6 1083 987 52.24% 16.02% 31.74%+0.42 +11.2 3
2010-04-11 Kilikia W 2-030.5 1282 1061 69.72% 15.31% 14.97%+1.37 +10.7 6
2010-04-11 @ Mika L 0-230.5 1061 1282 14.97% 15.31% 69.72%-1.37 -10.7 6
2010-04-17 Impuls L 0-142.7 1050 1049 45.24% 16.09% 38.67%+0.13 -15.2 6
2010-04-17 @ Kilikia W 1-042.7 1049 1050 38.67% 16.09% 45.24%-0.13 +15.2 4
2010-04-17 Mika L 0-132.3 976 1292 11.56% 14.95% 73.49%-1.67 -4.4 0
2010-04-17 @ Shirak W 1-032.3 1292 976 73.49% 14.95% 11.56%+1.67 +4.4 9
2010-04-17 Ulisses W 1-037.9 1386 1273 59.49% 15.85% 24.66%+0.76 +9.0 10
2010-04-17 @ Pyunik L 0-137.9 1273 1386 24.66% 15.85% 59.49%-0.76 -9.0 7
2010-04-17 Banants L 1-244.6 1095 1175 33.79% 16.05% 50.16%-0.33 -11.2 3
2010-04-17 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 2-144.6 1175 1095 50.16% 16.05% 33.79%+0.33 +11.2 7
2010-04-25 Gandzasar Kapan W 2-030.7 1297 1083 69.11% 15.36% 15.53%+1.33 +11.0 12
2010-04-25 @ Mika L 0-230.7 1083 1297 15.53% 15.36% 69.11%-1.33 -11.0 3
2010-04-25 Kilikia W 2-030.2 1264 1035 70.33% 15.26% 14.41%+1.41 +10.3 10
2010-04-25 @ Ulisses L 0-230.2 1035 1264 14.41% 15.26% 70.33%-1.41 -10.3 6
2010-04-25 Pyunik D 1-157.4 1187 1395 19.55% 15.63% 64.82%-1.05 +3.6 8
2010-04-25 @ Banants D 1-157.4 1395 1187 64.82% 15.63% 19.55%+1.05 -3.6 11
2010-04-25 Shirak W 2-142.4 1064 971 57.15% 15.92% 26.93%+0.65 +9.2 7
2010-04-25 @ Impuls L 1-242.4 971 1064 26.93% 15.92% 57.15%-0.65 -9.2 0
2010-05-01 Pyunik L 1-629.0 1072 1391 11.45% 14.93% 73.62%-1.68 -16.0 3
2010-05-01 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 6-129.0 1391 1072 73.62% 14.93% 11.45%+1.68 +16.0 14
2010-05-01 Banants L 0-330.8 1025 1190 23.72% 15.82% 60.47%-0.81 -23.7 6
2010-05-01 @ Kilikia W 3-030.8 1190 1025 60.47% 15.82% 23.72%+0.81 +23.7 11
2010-05-02 Impuls W 1-033.2 1308 1073 70.78% 15.22% 14.00%+1.45 +5.3 15
2010-05-02 @ Mika L 0-133.2 1073 1308 14.00% 15.22% 70.78%-1.45 -5.3 7
2010-05-02 Ulisses L 0-229.3 962 1274 11.85% 14.98% 73.17%-1.64 -8.5 0
2010-05-02 @ Shirak W 2-029.3 1274 962 73.17% 14.98% 11.85%+1.64 +8.5 13
2010-05-05 Pyunik L 0-325.6 1001 1407 7.33% 14.21% 78.46%-2.17 -7.7 6
2010-05-05 @ Kilikia W 3-025.6 1407 1001 78.46% 14.21% 7.33%+2.17 +7.7 17
2010-05-05 Shirak W 5-130.1 1214 953 72.64% 15.04% 12.32%+1.59 +14.0 14
2010-05-05 @ Banants L 1-530.1 953 1214 12.32% 15.04% 72.64%-1.59 -14.0 0
2010-05-07 Gandzasar Kapan W 1-040.3 1068 1056 46.63% 16.08% 37.28%+0.19 +12.9 10
2010-05-07 @ Impuls L 0-140.3 1056 1068 37.28% 16.08% 46.63%-0.19 -12.9 3
2010-05-08 Mika D 0-053.0 1282 1313 40.67% 16.10% 43.23%-0.05 +0.2 14
2010-05-08 @ Ulisses D 0-053.0 1313 1282 43.23% 16.10% 40.67%+0.05 -0.2 16
2010-05-14 Shirak W 4-129.3 1415 939 82.83% 13.10% 4.07%+2.81 +3.6 20
2010-05-14 @ Pyunik L 1-429.3 939 1415 4.07% 13.10% 82.83%-2.81 -3.6 0
2010-05-15 Impuls W 2-030.9 1283 1081 68.17% 15.42% 16.41%+1.26 +11.6 17
2010-05-15 @ Ulisses L 0-230.9 1081 1283 16.41% 15.42% 68.17%-1.26 -11.6 10
2010-05-15 Mika W 2-041.9 1228 1313 33.25% 16.04% 50.71%-0.36 +31.7 17
2010-05-15 @ Banants L 0-241.9 1313 1228 50.71% 16.04% 33.25%+0.36 -31.7 16
2010-05-16 Kilikia W 3-033.4 1044 993 51.88% 16.03% 32.09%+0.41 +31.1 6
2010-05-16 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-333.4 993 1044 32.09% 16.03% 51.88%-0.41 -31.1 6
2010-05-29 Gandzasar Kapan W 1-033.6 1294 1075 69.62% 15.32% 15.06%+1.36 +5.7 20
2010-05-29 @ Ulisses L 0-133.6 1075 1294 15.06% 15.32% 69.62%-1.36 -5.7 6
2010-05-30 Kilikia W 4-141.6 936 962 41.31% 16.10% 42.59%-0.03 +33.3 3
2010-05-30 @ Shirak L 1-441.6 962 936 42.59% 16.10% 41.31%+0.03 -33.4 6
2010-05-30 Pyunik L 0-236.0 1281 1418 26.83% 15.92% 57.26%-0.65 -18.3 16
2010-05-30 @ Mika W 2-036.0 1418 1281 57.26% 15.92% 26.83%+0.65 +18.3 23
2010-05-30 Banants L 0-135.5 1069 1260 21.20% 15.71% 63.09%-0.95 -7.8 10
2010-05-30 @ Impuls W 1-035.5 1260 1069 63.09% 15.71% 21.20%+0.95 +7.8 20
2010-06-05 Impuls W 3-025.6 1437 1061 79.04% 14.09% 6.87%+2.24 +7.2 26
2010-06-05 @ Pyunik L 0-325.6 1061 1437 6.87% 14.09% 79.04%-2.24 -7.2 10
2010-06-05 Shirak W 1-036.9 1069 969 57.95% 15.90% 26.15%+0.69 +9.5 9
2010-06-05 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-136.9 969 1069 26.15% 15.90% 57.95%-0.69 -9.5 3
2010-06-06 Mika D 1-156.9 929 1263 10.60% 14.82% 74.58%-1.76 +5.3 7
2010-06-06 @ Kilikia D 1-156.9 1263 929 74.58% 14.82% 10.60%+1.76 -5.3 17
2010-06-06 Ulisses W 2-039.9 1267 1300 40.42% 16.10% 43.48%-0.06 +27.7 23
2010-06-06 @ Banants L 0-239.9 1300 1267 43.48% 16.10% 40.42%+0.06 -27.7 20
2010-06-12 Gandzasar Kapan W 3-028.3 1295 1078 69.40% 15.33% 15.27%+1.35 +15.8 26
2010-06-12 @ Banants L 0-328.3 1078 1295 15.27% 15.33% 69.40%-1.35 -15.8 9
2010-06-12 Shirak W 6-128.3 1258 960 75.02% 14.76% 10.22%+1.80 +14.3 20
2010-06-12 @ Mika L 1-628.3 960 1258 10.22% 14.76% 75.02%-1.80 -14.3 3
2010-06-13 Kilikia L 2-357.5 1054 934 60.24% 15.82% 23.94%+0.80 -17.7 10
2010-06-13 @ Impuls W 3-257.5 934 1054 23.94% 15.82% 60.24%-0.80 +17.7 10
2010-06-13 Pyunik W 3-152.0 1272 1444 23.09% 15.79% 61.12%-0.85 +32.8 23
2010-06-13 @ Ulisses L 1-352.0 1444 1272 61.12% 15.79% 23.09%+0.85 -32.7 26
2010-06-19 Mika D 1-156.7 1063 1272 19.45% 15.62% 64.93%-1.06 +3.6 10
2010-06-19 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 1-156.7 1272 1063 64.93% 15.62% 19.45%+1.06 -3.6 21
2010-06-19 Ulisses L 1-334.2 952 1305 9.62% 14.66% 75.71%-1.87 -6.0 10
2010-06-19 @ Kilikia W 3-134.2 1305 952 75.71% 14.66% 9.62%+1.87 +6.0 26
2010-06-20 Impuls L 0-138.8 946 1036 32.48% 16.03% 51.49%-0.39 -11.5 3
2010-06-20 @ Shirak W 1-038.8 1036 946 51.49% 16.03% 32.48%+0.39 +11.5 13
2010-06-20 Banants L 2-359.0 1411 1311 58.00% 15.89% 26.11%+0.69 -17.0 26
2010-06-20 @ Pyunik W 3-259.0 1311 1411 26.11% 15.89% 58.00%-0.69 +17.0 29
2010-06-26 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-152.0 1394 1066 76.71% 14.51% 8.78%+1.97 -25.2 26
2010-06-26 @ Pyunik W 1-052.0 1066 1394 8.78% 14.51% 76.71%-1.97 +25.2 13
2010-06-26 Mika D 2-262.3 1048 1268 18.46% 15.56% 65.97%-1.12 +2.8 14
2010-06-26 @ Impuls D 2-262.3 1268 1048 65.97% 15.56% 18.46%+1.12 -2.8 22
2010-06-27 Kilikia W 2-027.5 1328 946 79.35% 14.03% 6.63%+2.28 +4.8 32
2010-06-27 @ Banants L 0-227.5 946 1328 6.63% 14.03% 79.35%-2.28 -4.8 10
2010-06-27 Shirak W 4-024.2 1311 934 79.11% 14.08% 6.82%+2.25 +9.3 29
2010-06-27 @ Ulisses L 0-424.2 934 1311 6.82% 14.08% 79.11%-2.25 -9.3 3
2010-07-03 Impuls L 1-249.6 1091 1051 50.62% 16.05% 33.34%+0.35 -15.8 13
2010-07-03 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 2-149.6 1051 1091 33.34% 16.05% 50.62%-0.35 +15.8 17
2010-07-03 Kilikia W 4-236.6 1369 941 81.19% 13.59% 5.22%+2.54 +2.9 29
2010-07-03 @ Pyunik L 2-436.6 941 1369 5.22% 13.59% 81.19%-2.54 -2.9 10
2010-07-25 Banants L 0-325.4 925 1333 7.26% 14.19% 78.55%-2.18 -7.6 3
2010-07-25 @ Shirak W 3-025.4 1333 925 78.55% 14.19% 7.26%+2.18 +7.6 35
2010-07-27 Ulisses L 0-141.1 1265 1320 37.27% 16.08% 46.64%-0.19 -12.9 22
2010-07-27 @ Mika W 1-041.1 1320 1265 46.64% 16.08% 37.27%+0.19 +12.9 32
2010-07-31 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-234.1 938 1076 26.79% 15.91% 57.29%-0.65 -18.2 10
2010-07-31 @ Kilikia W 2-034.1 1076 938 57.29% 15.91% 26.79%+0.65 +18.2 16
2010-07-31 Pyunik L 0-423.8 917 1372 5.70% 13.75% 80.55%-2.44 -7.8 3
2010-07-31 @ Shirak W 4-023.8 1372 917 80.55% 13.75% 5.70%+2.44 +7.8 32
2010-08-01 Ulisses W 2-155.4 1066 1333 14.80% 15.29% 69.91%-1.38 +21.6 20
2010-08-01 @ Impuls L 1-255.4 1333 1066 69.91% 15.29% 14.80%+1.38 -21.6 32
2010-08-01 Banants L 0-139.8 1252 1340 32.85% 16.04% 51.11%-0.37 -11.6 22
2010-08-01 @ Mika W 1-039.8 1340 1252 51.11% 16.04% 32.85%+0.37 +11.6 38
2010-08-05 Mika W 2-033.7 1380 1241 62.23% 15.75% 22.02%+0.91 +15.3 35
2010-08-05 @ Pyunik L 0-233.7 1241 1380 22.02% 15.75% 62.23%-0.91 -15.3 22
2010-08-06 Impuls W 6-129.2 1352 1088 72.87% 15.02% 12.12%+1.61 +16.8 41
2010-08-06 @ Banants L 1-629.2 1088 1352 12.12% 15.02% 72.87%-1.61 -16.9 20
2010-08-07 Ulisses L 0-329.4 1094 1312 18.69% 15.58% 65.73%-1.11 -19.1 16
2010-08-07 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 3-029.4 1312 1094 65.73% 15.58% 18.69%+1.11 +19.1 35
2010-08-08 Shirak W 2-145.6 920 909 46.51% 16.08% 37.40%+0.18 +12.2 13
2010-08-08 @ Kilikia L 1-245.6 909 920 37.40% 16.08% 46.51%-0.18 -12.2 3
2010-08-14 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-232.7 897 1075 22.47% 15.77% 61.76%-0.88 -15.6 3
2010-08-14 @ Shirak W 2-032.7 1075 897 61.76% 15.77% 22.47%+0.88 +15.6 19
2010-08-14 Kilikia W 4-131.6 1226 932 74.77% 14.79% 10.44%+1.78 +9.2 25
2010-08-14 @ Mika L 1-431.6 932 1226 10.44% 14.79% 74.77%-1.78 -9.2 13
2010-08-15 Pyunik D 1-157.2 1071 1395 11.17% 14.90% 73.93%-1.70 +5.2 21
2010-08-15 @ Impuls D 1-157.2 1395 1071 73.93% 14.90% 11.17%+1.70 -5.1 36
2010-08-15 Banants W 1-044.3 1331 1369 39.61% 16.10% 44.30%-0.09 +14.9 38
2010-08-15 @ Ulisses L 0-144.3 1369 1331 44.30% 16.10% 39.61%+0.09 -14.9 41
2010-08-21 Impuls D 0-052.2 923 1076 24.99% 15.86% 59.15%-0.74 +3.0 14
2010-08-21 @ Kilikia D 0-052.2 1076 923 59.15% 15.86% 24.99%+0.74 -3.0 22
2010-08-21 Mika L 0-131.6 882 1235 9.62% 14.66% 75.72%-1.87 -3.7 3
2010-08-21 @ Shirak W 1-031.6 1235 882 75.72% 14.66% 9.62%+1.87 +3.7 28
2010-08-22 Ulisses W 5-139.0 1390 1346 51.06% 16.04% 32.90%+0.37 +34.5 39
2010-08-22 @ Pyunik L 1-539.0 1346 1390 32.90% 16.04% 51.06%-0.37 -34.5 38
2010-08-22 Banants L 0-133.7 1090 1354 15.02% 15.31% 69.67%-1.37 -5.7 19
2010-08-22 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 1-033.7 1354 1090 69.67% 15.31% 15.02%+1.37 +5.7 44
2010-08-28 Gandzasar Kapan W 1-035.3 1239 1085 63.78% 15.68% 20.54%+0.99 +7.6 31
2010-08-28 @ Mika L 0-135.3 1085 1239 20.54% 15.68% 63.78%-0.99 -7.6 19
2010-08-28 Kilikia D 0-052.8 1311 926 79.48% 14.00% 6.52%+2.30 -6.8 39
2010-08-28 @ Ulisses D 0-052.8 926 1311 6.52% 14.00% 79.48%-2.30 +6.8 15
2010-08-28 Pyunik D 2-265.3 1360 1424 35.94% 16.07% 47.98%-0.24 +0.7 45
2010-08-28 @ Banants D 2-265.3 1424 1360 47.98% 16.07% 35.94%+0.24 -0.7 40
2010-08-28 Shirak D 2-262.2 1073 878 67.64% 15.46% 16.90%+1.23 -3.0 23
2010-08-28 @ Impuls D 2-262.2 878 1073 16.90% 15.46% 67.64%-1.23 +3.0 4
2010-09-11 Impuls W 2-031.6 1246 1070 65.87% 15.57% 18.56%+1.12 +13.1 34
2010-09-11 @ Mika L 0-231.6 1070 1246 18.56% 15.57% 65.87%-1.12 -13.1 23
2010-09-11 Ulisses L 0-130.5 881 1304 6.71% 14.05% 79.24%-2.27 -2.6 4
2010-09-11 @ Shirak W 1-030.5 1304 881 79.24% 14.05% 6.71%+2.27 +2.6 42
2010-09-11 Banants L 1-235.8 933 1360 6.56% 14.01% 79.43%-2.29 -2.4 15
2010-09-11 @ Kilikia W 2-135.8 1360 933 79.43% 14.01% 6.56%+2.29 +2.4 48
2010-09-14 Pyunik L 0-326.8 1077 1424 9.95% 14.72% 75.33%-1.83 -10.4 19
2010-09-14 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 3-026.8 1424 1077 75.33% 14.72% 9.95%+1.83 +10.4 43
2010-09-18 Gandzasar Kapan D 1-156.5 1057 1067 43.74% 16.10% 40.17%+0.07 -0.3 24
2010-09-18 @ Impuls D 1-156.5 1067 1057 40.17% 16.10% 43.74%-0.07 +0.3 20
2010-09-18 Kilikia W 5-023.0 1434 930 83.70% 12.80% 3.50%+2.97 +5.8 46
2010-09-18 @ Pyunik L 0-523.0 930 1434 3.50% 12.80% 83.70%-2.97 -5.8 15
2010-09-19 Mika L 1-250.6 1307 1259 51.53% 16.03% 32.44%+0.39 -16.1 42
2010-09-19 @ Ulisses W 2-150.6 1259 1307 32.44% 16.03% 51.53%-0.39 +16.1 37
2010-09-19 Shirak D 1-157.4 1363 878 83.11% 13.00% 3.88%+2.86 -6.6 49
2010-09-19 @ Banants D 1-157.4 878 1363 3.88% 13.00% 83.11%-2.86 +6.6 5
2010-09-26 Impuls L 1-255.5 1291 1057 70.71% 15.23% 14.06%+1.44 -21.8 42
2010-09-26 @ Ulisses W 2-155.5 1057 1291 14.06% 15.23% 70.71%-1.44 +21.9 27
2010-09-26 Kilikia W 3-030.1 1067 924 62.63% 15.73% 21.64%+0.93 +21.9 23
2010-09-26 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-330.1 924 1067 21.64% 15.73% 62.63%-0.93 -21.9 15
2010-09-27 Shirak W 5-022.5 1440 885 85.10% 12.24% 2.67%+3.26 +4.4 49
2010-09-27 @ Pyunik L 0-522.5 885 1440 2.67% 12.24% 85.10%-3.26 -4.4 5
2010-09-28 Mika W 2-144.0 1356 1275 55.70% 15.95% 28.34%+0.58 +9.6 52
2010-09-28 @ Banants L 1-244.0 1275 1356 28.34% 15.95% 55.70%-0.58 -9.6 37
2010-10-02 Pyunik L 1-340.3 1266 1444 22.38% 15.76% 61.85%-0.89 -13.4 37
2010-10-02 @ Mika W 3-140.3 1444 1266 61.85% 15.76% 22.38%+0.89 +13.4 52
2010-10-02 Banants L 0-133.1 1079 1366 13.42% 15.16% 71.42%-1.50 -5.1 27
2010-10-02 @ Impuls W 1-033.1 1366 1079 71.42% 15.16% 13.42%+1.50 +5.1 55
2010-10-03 Gandzasar Kapan W 2-139.9 1269 1089 66.27% 15.55% 18.18%+1.14 +6.4 45
2010-10-03 @ Ulisses L 1-239.9 1089 1269 18.18% 15.55% 66.27%-1.14 -6.4 23
2010-10-03 Kilikia W 2-038.7 881 903 41.92% 16.10% 41.98%+0.00 +26.9 8
2010-10-03 @ Shirak L 0-238.7 903 881 41.98% 16.10% 41.92%+0.00 -26.9 15
2010-10-16 Mika L 1-430.9 876 1252 8.54% 14.47% 77.00%-2.00 -7.6 15
2010-10-16 @ Kilikia W 4-130.9 1252 876 77.00% 14.47% 8.54%+2.00 +7.5 40
2010-10-16 Ulisses L 0-244.6 1371 1275 57.46% 15.91% 26.63%+0.66 -35.6 55
2010-10-16 @ Banants W 2-044.6 1275 1371 26.63% 15.91% 57.46%-0.66 +35.6 48
2010-10-17 Impuls D 3-367.2 1458 1074 79.41% 14.01% 6.57%+2.29 -3.8 53
2010-10-17 @ Pyunik D 3-367.2 1074 1458 6.57% 14.01% 79.41%-2.29 +3.8 28
2010-10-17 Shirak D 3-366.2 1082 907 65.78% 15.57% 18.64%+1.11 -2.3 24
2010-10-17 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 3-366.2 907 1082 18.64% 15.57% 65.78%-1.11 +2.3 9
2010-10-23 Gandzasar Kapan W 5-026.5 1335 1080 72.27% 15.08% 12.65%+1.56 +21.2 58
2010-10-23 @ Banants L 0-526.5 1080 1335 12.65% 15.08% 72.27%-1.56 -21.2 24
2010-10-23 Kilikia W 2-030.6 1078 868 68.81% 15.38% 15.81%+1.31 +11.2 31
2010-10-23 @ Impuls L 0-230.6 868 1078 15.81% 15.38% 68.81%-1.31 -11.2 15
2010-10-23 Pyunik L 0-139.8 1311 1454 26.18% 15.90% 57.93%-0.68 -9.5 48
2010-10-23 @ Ulisses W 1-039.8 1454 1311 57.93% 15.90% 26.18%+0.68 +9.5 56
2010-10-23 Shirak W 5-128.6 1260 910 77.85% 14.32% 7.83%+2.10 +9.0 43
2010-10-23 @ Mika L 1-528.6 910 1260 7.83% 14.32% 77.85%-2.10 -8.9 9
2010-10-31 Impuls L 1-240.7 901 1089 21.45% 15.72% 62.83%-0.94 -7.5 9
2010-10-31 @ Shirak W 2-140.7 1089 901 62.83% 15.72% 21.45%+0.94 +7.5 34
2010-10-31 Mika L 0-134.9 1059 1269 19.38% 15.62% 65.01%-1.06 -7.2 24
2010-10-31 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 1-034.9 1269 1059 65.01% 15.62% 19.38%+1.06 +7.2 46
2010-10-31 Ulisses L 0-324.9 857 1301 6.01% 13.85% 80.14%-2.39 -6.3 15
2010-10-31 @ Kilikia W 3-024.9 1301 857 80.14% 13.85% 6.01%+2.39 +6.3 51
2010-10-31 Banants W 1-040.7 1463 1356 58.79% 15.87% 25.34%+0.73 +9.2 59
2010-10-31 @ Pyunik L 0-140.7 1356 1463 25.34% 15.87% 58.79%-0.73 -9.2 58
2010-11-06 Kilikia W 1-029.3 1347 851 83.49% 12.87% 3.64%+2.93 +1.4 61
2010-11-06 @ Banants L 0-129.3 851 1347 3.64% 12.87% 83.49%-2.93 -1.4 15
2010-11-06 Mika W 2-153.1 1096 1276 22.26% 15.76% 61.98%-0.89 +19.2 37
2010-11-06 @ Impuls L 1-253.1 1276 1096 61.98% 15.76% 22.26%+0.89 -19.2 46
2010-11-06 Shirak D 1-157.2 1308 893 80.67% 13.72% 5.61%+2.46 -6.3 52
2010-11-06 @ Ulisses D 1-157.2 893 1308 5.61% 13.72% 80.67%-2.46 +6.2 10
2010-11-07 Gandzasar Kapan W 3-025.2 1473 1052 80.93% 13.65% 5.41%+2.50 +5.7 62
2010-11-07 @ Pyunik L 0-325.2 1052 1473 5.41% 13.65% 80.93%-2.50 -5.7 24
2010-11-14 Impuls W 1-043.7 1046 1115 35.27% 16.07% 48.66%-0.27 +16.2 27
2010-11-14 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-143.7 1115 1046 48.66% 16.07% 35.27%+0.27 -16.2 37
2010-11-14 Pyunik L 0-128.6 849 1478 2.26% 11.89% 85.84%-3.43 -0.8 15
2010-11-14 @ Kilikia W 1-028.6 1478 849 85.84% 11.89% 2.26%+3.43 +0.8 65
2010-11-14 Ulisses L 2-351.8 1257 1301 38.70% 16.09% 45.21%-0.13 -11.9 46
2010-11-14 @ Mika W 3-251.8 1301 1257 45.21% 16.09% 38.70%+0.13 +11.9 55
2010-11-14 Banants L 1-235.5 900 1348 5.88% 13.81% 80.32%-2.41 -2.1 10
2010-11-14 @ Shirak W 2-135.5 1348 900 80.32% 13.81% 5.88%+2.41 +2.1 64

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2010-06-26 8.78% Gandzasar Kapan 1066 1 @ Pyunik 1394 0
2 2010-09-26 14.06% Impuls 1057 2 @ Ulisses 1291 1
3 2010-08-01 14.80% @ Impuls 1066 2 Ulisses 1333 1
4 2010-11-06 22.26% @ Impuls 1096 2 Mika 1276 1
5 2010-06-13 23.09% @ Ulisses 1272 3 Pyunik 1444 1
6 2010-06-13 23.94% Kilikia 934 3 @ Impuls 1054 2
7 2010-06-20 26.11% Banants 1311 3 @ Pyunik 1411 2
8 2010-10-16 26.63% Ulisses 1275 2 @ Banants 1371 0
9 2010-03-28 30.25% @ Kilikia 1012 3 Gandzasar Kapan 1121 1
10 2010-09-19 32.44% Mika 1259 2 @ Ulisses 1307 1
11 2010-05-15 33.25% @ Banants 1228 2 Mika 1313 0
12 2010-07-03 33.34% Impuls 1051 2 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1091 1
13 2010-11-14 35.27% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1046 1 Impuls 1115 0
14 2010-04-17 38.67% Impuls 1049 1 @ Kilikia 1050 0
15 2010-08-15 39.61% @ Ulisses 1331 1 Banants 1369 0
16 2010-06-06 40.42% @ Banants 1267 2 Ulisses 1300 0
17 2010-05-30 41.31% @ Shirak 936 4 Kilikia 962 1
18 2010-10-03 41.92% @ Shirak 881 2 Kilikia 903 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-03-28 38.46 @ Mika 4 1258 53.82% Banants 0 1192 30.19% 15.99%
2 2010-10-16 35.62 Ulisses 2 1275 26.63% @ Banants 0 1371 57.46% 15.91%
3 2010-08-22 34.55 @ Pyunik 5 1390 51.06% Ulisses 1 1346 32.90% 16.04%
4 2010-05-30 33.35 @ Shirak 4 936 41.31% Kilikia 1 962 42.59% 16.10%
5 2010-06-13 32.75 @ Ulisses 3 1272 23.09% Pyunik 1 1444 61.12% 15.79%
6 2010-05-15 31.71 @ Banants 2 1228 33.25% Mika 0 1313 50.71% 16.04%
7 2010-05-16 31.05 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1044 51.88% Kilikia 0 993 32.09% 16.03%
8 2010-03-28 28.97 @ Kilikia 3 1012 30.25% Gandzasar Kapan 1 1121 53.75% 16.00%
9 2010-06-06 27.71 @ Banants 2 1267 40.42% Ulisses 0 1300 43.48% 16.10%
10 2010-10-03 26.90 @ Shirak 2 881 41.92% Kilikia 0 903 41.98% 16.10%
11 2010-06-26 25.15 Gandzasar Kapan 1 1066 8.78% @ Pyunik 0 1394 76.71% 14.51%
12 2010-03-27 24.85 Ulisses 3 1241 59.20% @ Impuls 0 1087 24.94% 15.86%
13 2010-05-01 23.74 Banants 3 1190 60.47% @ Kilikia 0 1025 23.72% 15.82%
14 2010-09-26 21.86 Impuls 2 1057 14.06% @ Ulisses 1 1291 70.71% 15.23%
15 2010-09-26 21.85 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1067 62.63% Kilikia 0 924 21.64% 15.73%
16 2010-08-01 21.61 @ Impuls 2 1066 14.80% Ulisses 1 1333 69.91% 15.29%
17 2010-10-23 21.23 @ Banants 5 1335 72.27% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1080 12.65% 15.08%
18 2010-04-03 19.52 @ Kilikia 3 1041 49.85% Shirak 1 1006 34.09% 16.05%
19 2010-04-03 19.51 @ Banants 5 1154 57.03% Impuls 2 1062 27.05% 15.92%
20 2010-11-06 19.16 @ Impuls 2 1096 22.26% Mika 1 1276 61.98% 15.76%
21 2010-08-07 19.09 Ulisses 3 1312 65.73% @ Gandzasar Kapan 0 1094 18.69% 15.58%
22 2010-05-30 18.26 Pyunik 2 1418 57.26% @ Mika 0 1281 26.83% 15.92%
23 2010-07-31 18.24 Gandzasar Kapan 2 1076 57.29% @ Kilikia 0 938 26.79% 15.91%
24 2010-06-13 17.68 Kilikia 3 934 23.94% @ Impuls 2 1054 60.24% 15.82%
25 2010-06-20 17.05 Banants 3 1311 26.11% @ Pyunik 2 1411 58.00% 15.89%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-10-17 67.2 @ Pyunik 3 1458 79.41% Impuls 3 1074 6.57% 14.01%
2 2010-10-17 66.2 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1082 65.78% Shirak 3 907 18.64% 15.57%
3 2010-08-28 65.3 @ Banants 2 1360 35.94% Pyunik 2 1424 47.98% 16.07%
4 2010-04-10 62.4 @ Ulisses 2 1274 58.09% Banants 2 1174 26.02% 15.89%
5 2010-06-26 62.3 @ Impuls 2 1048 18.46% Mika 2 1268 65.97% 15.56%
6 2010-08-28 62.2 @ Impuls 2 1073 67.64% Shirak 2 878 16.90% 15.46%
7 2010-06-20 59.0 Banants 3 1311 26.11% @ Pyunik 2 1411 58.00% 15.89%
8 2010-06-13 57.5 Kilikia 3 934 23.94% @ Impuls 2 1054 60.24% 15.82%
9 2010-04-25 57.4 @ Banants 1 1187 19.55% Pyunik 1 1395 64.82% 15.63%
10 2010-09-19 57.4 @ Banants 1 1363 83.11% Shirak 1 878 3.88% 13.00%
11 2010-08-15 57.2 @ Impuls 1 1071 11.17% Pyunik 1 1395 73.93% 14.90%
12 2010-11-06 57.2 @ Ulisses 1 1308 80.67% Shirak 1 893 5.61% 13.72%
13 2010-06-06 56.9 @ Kilikia 1 929 10.60% Mika 1 1263 74.58% 14.82%
14 2010-06-19 56.7 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1063 19.45% Mika 1 1272 64.93% 15.62%
15 2010-09-18 56.5 @ Impuls 1 1057 43.74% Gandzasar Kapan 1 1067 40.17% 16.10%
16 2010-09-26 55.5 Impuls 2 1057 14.06% @ Ulisses 1 1291 70.71% 15.23%
17 2010-08-01 55.4 @ Impuls 2 1066 14.80% Ulisses 1 1333 69.91% 15.29%
18 2010-11-06 53.1 @ Impuls 2 1096 22.26% Mika 1 1276 61.98% 15.76%
19 2010-05-08 53.0 @ Ulisses 0 1282 40.67% Mika 0 1313 43.23% 16.10%
20 2010-04-10 52.8 @ Impuls 0 1043 9.82% Pyunik 0 1392 75.48% 14.70%
21 2010-08-28 52.8 @ Ulisses 0 1311 79.48% Kilikia 0 926 6.52% 14.00%
22 2010-08-21 52.2 @ Kilikia 0 923 24.99% Impuls 0 1076 59.15% 15.86%
23 2010-06-13 52.0 @ Ulisses 3 1272 23.09% Pyunik 1 1444 61.12% 15.79%
24 2010-06-26 52.0 Gandzasar Kapan 1 1066 8.78% @ Pyunik 0 1394 76.71% 14.51%
25 2010-11-14 51.8 Ulisses 3 1301 45.21% @ Mika 2 1257 38.70% 16.09%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-09-27 22.5 @ Pyunik 5 1440 85.10% Shirak 0 885 2.67% 12.24%
2 2010-09-18 23.0 @ Pyunik 5 1434 83.70% Kilikia 0 930 3.50% 12.80%
3 2010-07-31 23.8 Pyunik 4 1372 80.55% @ Shirak 0 917 5.70% 13.75%
4 2010-06-27 24.2 @ Ulisses 4 1311 79.11% Shirak 0 934 6.82% 14.08%
5 2010-10-31 24.9 Ulisses 3 1301 80.14% @ Kilikia 0 857 6.01% 13.85%
6 2010-11-07 25.2 @ Pyunik 3 1473 80.93% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1052 5.41% 13.65%
7 2010-07-25 25.4 Banants 3 1333 78.55% @ Shirak 0 925 7.26% 14.19%
8 2010-05-05 25.6 Pyunik 3 1407 78.46% @ Kilikia 0 1001 7.33% 14.21%
9 2010-06-05 25.6 @ Pyunik 3 1437 79.04% Impuls 0 1061 6.87% 14.09%
10 2010-03-27 26.4 Pyunik 3 1367 75.54% @ Shirak 0 1017 9.77% 14.69%
11 2010-10-23 26.5 @ Banants 5 1335 72.27% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1080 12.65% 15.08%
12 2010-09-14 26.8 Pyunik 3 1424 75.33% @ Gandzasar Kapan 0 1077 9.95% 14.72%
13 2010-06-27 27.5 @ Banants 2 1328 79.35% Kilikia 0 946 6.63% 14.03%
14 2010-06-12 28.3 @ Banants 3 1295 69.40% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1078 15.27% 15.33%
15 2010-06-12 28.3 @ Mika 6 1258 75.02% Shirak 1 960 10.22% 14.76%
16 2010-10-23 28.6 @ Mika 5 1260 77.85% Shirak 1 910 7.83% 14.32%
17 2010-11-14 28.6 Pyunik 1 1478 85.84% @ Kilikia 0 849 2.26% 11.89%
18 2010-05-01 29.0 Pyunik 6 1391 73.62% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1072 11.45% 14.93%
19 2010-08-06 29.2 @ Banants 6 1352 72.87% Impuls 1 1088 12.12% 15.02%
20 2010-05-02 29.3 Ulisses 2 1274 73.17% @ Shirak 0 962 11.85% 14.98%
21 2010-05-14 29.3 @ Pyunik 4 1415 82.83% Shirak 1 939 4.07% 13.10%
22 2010-11-06 29.3 @ Banants 1 1347 83.49% Kilikia 0 851 3.64% 12.87%
23 2010-08-07 29.4 Ulisses 3 1312 65.73% @ Gandzasar Kapan 0 1094 18.69% 15.58%
24 2010-05-05 30.1 @ Banants 5 1214 72.64% Shirak 1 953 12.32% 15.04%
25 2010-09-26 30.1 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1067 62.63% Kilikia 0 924 21.64% 15.73%