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2011 Armenian Premier League Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Ulisses

53 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Gandzasar Kapan

5.40 points above expected

46 points · 40.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ararat

9.42 points below expected

10 points · 19.42 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ulisses Champion 28 15 8 5 53 38 22 +16 51.46 +1.54
2 Gandzasar Kapan 28 12 10 6 46 31 16 +15 40.60 +5.40
3 Pyunik 28 12 10 6 46 33 28 +5 50.92 -4.92
4 Banants 28 12 8 8 44 42 30 +12 42.88 +1.12
5 Mika 28 12 8 8 44 36 25 +11 42.19 +1.81
6 Impuls 28 10 7 11 37 37 36 +1 34.65 +2.35
7 Shirak 28 6 7 15 25 25 42 -17 23.51 +1.49
8 Ararat 28 2 4 22 10 14 57 -43 19.42 -9.42

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Gandzasar Kapan 46 40.60 +5.40
2 Impuls 37 34.65 +2.35
3 Mika 44 42.19 +1.81
4 Ulisses 53 51.46 +1.54
5 Shirak 25 23.51 +1.49

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ararat 10 19.42 -9.42
2 Pyunik 46 50.92 -4.92
3 Banants 44 42.88 +1.12
4 Shirak 25 23.51 +1.49
5 Ulisses 53 51.46 +1.54

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Mika 3 Oct 17 – Oct 29 1 in 35
2 Banants 5 Sep 18 – Oct 29 1 in 24
3 Ulisses 5 Aug 13 – Sep 14 1 in 20
4 Gandzasar Kapan 3 Apr 2 – Apr 16 1 in 18
5 Ararat 1 May 21 – May 21 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ararat 12 Aug 7 – Nov 5 1 in 173
2 Shirak 7 Jun 26 – Aug 27 1 in 73
3 Gandzasar Kapan 2 Sep 10 – Sep 14 1 in 12
4 Impuls 3 Oct 17 – Oct 29 1 in 12
5 Mika 2 Apr 16 – Apr 23 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gandzasar Kapan 8 Mar 20 – May 8 1 in 92
2 Impuls 5 Apr 16 – May 15 1 in 20
3 Ulisses 10 Aug 6 – Oct 22 1 in 9
4 Shirak 3 Apr 23 – May 7 1 in 7
5 Mika 5 Jul 24 – Aug 21 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Banants 7 Mar 5 – May 1 1 in 41
2 Gandzasar Kapan 6 Aug 21 – Oct 2 1 in 29
3 Ulisses 3 Sep 18 – Oct 16 1 in 12
4 Pyunik 4 Jul 23 – Aug 14 1 in 11
5 Ararat 14 Jul 24 – Nov 5 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ulisses 1192 53 -64 6 9.7 -3.7
Gandzasar Kapan 1144 46 -15 7 7.9 -0.9
Pyunik 1145 46 -47 6 8.4 -2.4
Banants 1267 44 +82 13 9.1 +3.9
Mika 1234 44 +82 10 6.7 +3.3
Impuls 1074 37 -49 2 5.2 -3.2
Shirak 954 25 +43 8 4.2 +3.8
Ararat 781 10 -45 0 2.8 -2.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARA BAN GK IMP MIK PYU SHI ULI
Ararat —
0-1-3
2.96
0-0-4
2.76
1-0-3
3.08
0-1-3
2.78
0-0-4
1.91
1-1-2
4.20
0-1-3
1.82
Banants
3-1-0
8.00
 —
1-1-2
5.58
2-0-2
6.75
1-3-0
5.26
2-1-1
4.18
2-2-0
8.10
1-0-3
4.50
Gandzasar Kapan
4-0-0
8.23
2-1-1
5.27
 —
1-3-0
6.34
2-1-1
5.21
0-2-2
4.08
3-0-1
7.67
0-3-1
4.07
Impuls
3-0-1
7.85
2-0-2
4.11
0-3-1
4.50
 —
1-0-3
4.60
0-3-1
3.34
3-0-1
7.14
1-1-2
3.57
Mika
3-1-0
8.20
0-3-1
5.58
1-1-2
5.63
3-0-1
6.25
 —
2-1-1
4.73
1-2-1
8.01
2-0-2
4.16
Pyunik
4-0-0
9.18
1-1-2
6.69
2-2-0
6.81
1-3-0
7.55
1-1-2
6.14
 —
2-1-1
8.75
1-2-1
5.68
Shirak
2-1-1
6.65
0-2-2
2.86
1-0-3
3.24
1-0-3
3.74
1-2-1
2.91
1-1-2
2.28
 —
0-1-3
2.28
Ulisses
3-1-0
9.29
3-0-1
6.35
1-3-0
6.79
2-1-1
7.31
2-0-2
6.69
1-2-1
5.15
3-1-0
8.74
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +13.8
Allowed 0.89 -10.3
Differential 0.96 +6.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.82%13.84%4.46%2.23%0.45%1.34%32.14%
113.84%11.61%7.14%3.57%0.89%—37.05%
24.46%7.14%6.25%1.79%——19.64%
32.23%3.57%1.79%—0.45%—8.04%
40.45%0.89%—0.45%——1.79%
5+1.34%—————1.34%
Total32.14%37.05%19.64%8.04%1.79%1.34%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.14 +0.00
SD 1.10 1.10 1.58
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—25.00%14.29%7.14%—10.71%57.14%
1—14.29%14.29%3.57%3.57%—35.71%
2—7.14%————7.14%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—46.43%28.57%10.71%3.57%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.50 2.04 -1.54
SD 0.64 1.32 1.60
CV 1.28 0.65 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%14.29%3.57%———28.57%
17.14%10.71%—7.14%——25.00%
23.57%10.71%7.14%———21.43%
37.14%7.14%3.57%—3.57%—21.43%
4———————
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total32.14%42.86%14.29%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.07 +0.43
SD 1.32 1.05 1.64
CV 0.88 0.98 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%14.29%————32.14%
125.00%10.71%3.57%3.57%——42.86%
210.71%—7.14%———17.86%
3———————
43.57%—————3.57%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total60.71%25.00%10.71%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 0.57 +0.54
SD 1.20 0.84 1.50
CV 1.08 1.46 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%3.57%———17.86%
110.71%10.71%17.86%———39.29%
27.14%10.71%10.71%7.14%——35.71%
3—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%35.71%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.29 +0.04
SD 0.86 0.90 1.10
CV 0.65 0.70 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%21.43%————35.71%
17.14%7.14%—3.57%——17.86%
27.14%14.29%7.14%3.57%——32.14%
37.14%—3.57%———10.71%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total35.71%46.43%10.71%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 0.89 +0.39
SD 1.18 0.88 1.34
CV 0.92 0.98 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%3.57%7.14%——28.57%
125.00%17.86%3.57%———46.43%
2—3.57%7.14%———10.71%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
5+———————
Total35.71%39.29%14.29%10.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.00 +0.18
SD 1.16 0.98 1.36
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%10.71%—3.57%—35.71%
110.71%10.71%10.71%7.14%3.57%—42.86%
23.57%3.57%7.14%3.57%——17.86%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%32.14%28.57%10.71%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.50 -0.61
SD 0.83 1.17 1.42
CV 0.93 0.78 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%3.57%—3.57%——21.43%
125.00%10.71%7.14%3.57%——46.43%
23.57%7.14%3.57%———14.29%
33.57%7.14%3.57%———14.29%
4———————
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total50.00%28.57%14.29%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 0.79 +0.57
SD 1.19 0.96 1.53
CV 0.88 1.22 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Banants 1267 44 42.88 +1.12 63.0% 24 34 38 42 47 53 58
Mika 1234 44 42.19 +1.81 63.0% 28 32 38 42 46 52 60
Ulisses 1192 53 51.46 +1.54 63.0% 35 39 47 51 56 63 67
Pyunik 1145 46 50.92 -4.92 24.0% 32 39 47 51 55 59 69
Gandzasar Kapan 1144 46 40.60 +5.40 79.0% 27 30 35 40 45 52 56
Impuls 1074 37 34.65 +2.35 69.0% 17 25 31 34 38 44 46
Shirak 954 25 23.51 +1.49 65.0% 11 15 20 24 27 32 38
Ararat 781 10 19.42 -9.42 6.0% 8 10 15 19 23 27 33

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.61%
Clear Edge
41.96%27.68%30.36%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 40.51 Elo pts.
246 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.16 goals
Neutral
-2+0.16+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
48%
Ulisses, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.25/gm
Comfortable
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.97 * Some Luck: 4.97 to 7.45 * Lucky: 7.45 to 9.93 * Wild Swing: 9.93 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.69 * Close: 0.69 to 1.04 * Off: 1.04 to 1.39 * Way Off: 1.39 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.43 points
As Expected
06.2116
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Close
00.872
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
79.00%
Gandzasar Kapan
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
6.00%
Ararat
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Balanced
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 161.25
2.05
Coin-Flip Parity
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
71%
Even
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
94%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
74%
Very Frequent
0%66%100%
Blowouts
Expected
10%
Rare
0%11%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.60
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.66
Strong Carryover
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Shaky Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.82
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.02
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.118
Well Within Noise
00.1610.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Ulisses48.00%23.00%14.00%10.00%3.00%2.00%——
Gandzasar Kapan6.00%10.00%20.00%21.00%24.00%17.00%2.00%—
Pyunik30.00%38.00%15.00%11.00%4.00%2.00%——
Banants7.00%15.00%25.00%24.00%19.00%9.00%1.00%—
Mika9.00%13.00%20.00%25.00%24.00%9.00%——
Impuls—1.00%6.00%8.00%25.00%51.00%9.00%—
Shirak———1.00%1.00%6.00%63.00%29.00%
Ararat—————4.00%25.00%71.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Banants 100% —
Gandzasar Kapan 100% —
Impuls 100% —
Mika 100% —
Pyunik 100% —
Ulisses 100% —
Shirak 71.00% 29.00%
Ararat 29.00% 71.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2011-03-05 Shirak D 0-048.0 1131 963 60.13% 26.30% 13.57%+0.85 -5.1 1
2011-03-05 @ Mika D 0-048.0 963 1131 13.57% 26.30% 60.13%-0.85 +5.1 1
2011-03-05 Banants D 1-152.8 1023 1175 21.98% 28.51% 49.51%-0.45 +2.5 1
2011-03-05 @ Ararat D 1-152.8 1175 1023 49.51% 28.51% 21.98%+0.45 -2.5 1
2011-03-06 Pyunik L 0-135.9 1054 1247 18.16% 27.78% 54.06%-0.62 -9.7 0
2011-03-06 @ Impuls W 1-035.9 1247 1054 54.06% 27.78% 18.16%+0.62 +9.7 3
2011-03-19 Mika L 0-334.0 1025 1126 27.79% 29.12% 43.09%-0.24 -37.5 1
2011-03-19 @ Ararat W 3-034.0 1126 1025 43.09% 29.12% 27.79%+0.24 +37.5 4
2011-03-19 Ulisses L 1-346.2 1172 1162 42.80% 29.14% 28.05%+0.21 -30.8 1
2011-03-19 @ Banants W 3-146.2 1162 1172 28.05% 29.14% 42.80%-0.21 +30.8 3
2011-03-20 Gandzasar Kapan D 1-154.0 1257 1036 64.67% 24.73% 10.60%+1.07 -5.4 4
2011-03-20 @ Pyunik D 1-154.0 1036 1257 10.60% 24.73% 64.67%-1.07 +5.4 1
2011-03-20 Impuls W 2-149.0 969 1044 30.95% 29.28% 39.76%-0.14 +16.8 4
2011-03-20 @ Shirak L 1-249.0 1044 969 39.76% 29.28% 30.95%+0.14 -16.8 0
2011-03-24 Ulisses D 0-047.4 1041 1193 21.97% 28.51% 49.51%-0.45 +2.8 2
2011-03-24 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 0-047.4 1193 1041 49.51% 28.51% 21.97%+0.45 -2.8 4
2011-04-02 Pyunik W 1-042.4 1190 1251 32.92% 29.33% 37.74%-0.08 +17.1 7
2011-04-02 @ Ulisses L 0-142.4 1251 1190 37.74% 29.33% 32.92%+0.08 -17.1 4
2011-04-02 Shirak W 1-037.3 1044 985 48.87% 28.59% 22.54%+0.40 +11.6 5
2011-04-02 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-137.3 985 1044 22.54% 28.59% 48.87%-0.40 -11.6 4
2011-04-03 Ararat W 2-034.5 1027 988 46.57% 28.85% 24.58%+0.33 +23.5 3
2011-04-03 @ Impuls L 0-234.5 988 1027 24.58% 28.85% 46.57%-0.33 -23.5 1
2011-04-03 Banants D 0-047.3 1163 1142 44.32% 29.04% 26.64%+0.25 -1.8 5
2011-04-03 @ Mika D 0-047.3 1142 1163 26.64% 29.04% 44.32%-0.25 +1.8 2
2011-04-09 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-139.4 964 1055 28.93% 29.19% 41.87%-0.21 -14.1 1
2011-04-09 @ Ararat W 1-039.4 1055 964 41.87% 29.19% 28.93%+0.21 +14.1 8
2011-04-09 Impuls W 3-246.8 1161 1051 54.65% 27.66% 17.69%+0.62 +8.5 8
2011-04-09 @ Mika L 2-346.8 1051 1161 17.69% 27.66% 54.65%-0.62 -8.5 3
2011-04-10 Pyunik L 3-452.8 1143 1234 28.97% 29.20% 41.83%-0.20 -12.3 2
2011-04-10 @ Banants W 4-352.8 1234 1143 41.83% 29.20% 28.97%+0.20 +12.3 7
2011-04-10 Ulisses L 1-337.1 974 1207 15.03% 26.86% 58.11%-0.79 -13.4 4
2011-04-10 @ Shirak W 3-137.1 1207 974 58.11% 26.86% 15.03%+0.79 +13.4 10
2011-04-16 Mika W 1-043.7 1070 1170 27.78% 29.12% 43.10%-0.24 +19.0 11
2011-04-16 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-143.7 1170 1070 43.10% 29.12% 27.78%+0.24 -19.0 8
2011-04-16 Banants W 1-043.2 1042 1131 29.26% 29.21% 41.53%-0.20 +18.4 6
2011-04-16 @ Impuls L 0-143.2 1131 1042 41.53% 29.21% 29.26%+0.20 -18.4 2
2011-04-17 Ararat W 3-026.4 1221 950 68.41% 23.13% 8.47%+1.27 +12.6 13
2011-04-17 @ Ulisses L 0-326.4 950 1221 8.47% 23.13% 68.41%-1.27 -12.6 1
2011-04-17 Shirak W 1-031.2 1247 960 69.52% 22.59% 7.89%+1.33 +4.2 10
2011-04-17 @ Pyunik L 0-131.2 960 1247 7.89% 22.59% 69.52%-1.33 -4.2 4
2011-04-23 Gandzasar Kapan D 2-258.6 1061 1089 37.64% 29.34% 33.02%+0.05 -0.3 7
2011-04-23 @ Impuls D 2-258.6 1089 1061 33.02% 29.34% 37.64%-0.05 +0.3 12
2011-04-23 Pyunik L 1-432.3 938 1251 10.41% 24.61% 64.98%-1.11 -13.2 1
2011-04-23 @ Ararat W 4-132.3 1251 938 64.98% 24.61% 10.41%+1.11 +13.2 13
2011-04-23 Shirak D 2-259.4 1113 956 59.14% 26.58% 14.28%+0.80 -3.3 3
2011-04-23 @ Banants D 2-259.4 956 1113 14.28% 26.58% 59.14%-0.80 +3.3 5
2011-04-23 Ulisses L 2-351.1 1151 1233 30.07% 29.25% 40.68%-0.17 -13.0 8
2011-04-23 @ Mika W 3-251.1 1233 1151 40.68% 29.25% 30.07%+0.17 +13.0 16
2011-04-30 Ararat D 1-152.6 959 924 46.00% 28.90% 25.10%+0.31 -1.9 6
2011-04-30 @ Shirak D 1-152.6 924 959 25.10% 28.90% 46.00%-0.31 +1.9 2
2011-04-30 Impuls L 0-148.4 1246 1060 61.75% 25.78% 12.46%+0.92 -25.8 16
2011-04-30 @ Ulisses W 1-048.4 1060 1246 12.46% 25.78% 61.75%-0.92 +25.8 10
2011-05-01 Mika L 0-147.3 1264 1138 56.21% 27.33% 16.47%+0.68 -23.7 13
2011-05-01 @ Pyunik W 1-047.3 1138 1264 16.47% 27.33% 56.21%-0.68 +23.7 11
2011-05-01 Banants W 2-036.9 1089 1109 38.67% 29.31% 32.02%+0.08 +28.7 15
2011-05-01 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-236.9 1109 1089 32.02% 29.31% 38.67%-0.08 -28.7 3
2011-05-07 Impuls D 2-259.5 1240 1086 58.90% 26.65% 14.45%+0.79 -3.2 14
2011-05-07 @ Pyunik D 2-259.5 1086 1240 14.45% 26.65% 58.90%-0.79 +3.2 11
2011-05-07 Mika W 1-046.8 957 1162 17.23% 27.54% 55.22%-0.67 +23.4 9
2011-05-07 @ Shirak L 0-146.8 1162 957 55.22% 27.54% 17.23%+0.67 -23.4 11
2011-05-08 Ararat W 2-140.6 1081 926 58.93% 26.64% 14.43%+0.79 +7.5 6
2011-05-08 @ Banants L 1-240.6 926 1081 14.43% 26.64% 58.93%-0.79 -7.4 2
2011-05-08 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-047.7 1221 1118 53.85% 27.82% 18.33%+0.58 -3.8 17
2011-05-08 @ Ulisses D 0-047.7 1118 1221 18.33% 27.82% 53.85%-0.58 +3.8 16
2011-05-14 Ararat W 2-139.0 1138 919 64.54% 24.78% 10.67%+1.06 +5.5 14
2011-05-14 @ Mika L 1-239.0 919 1138 10.67% 24.78% 64.54%-1.06 -5.5 2
2011-05-15 Pyunik L 1-341.1 1121 1237 25.94% 28.98% 45.08%-0.31 -21.2 16
2011-05-15 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 3-141.1 1237 1121 45.08% 28.98% 25.94%+0.31 +21.2 17
2011-05-15 Shirak W 2-142.0 1090 981 54.45% 27.70% 17.85%+0.61 +9.0 14
2011-05-15 @ Impuls L 1-242.0 981 1090 17.85% 27.70% 54.45%-0.61 -9.0 9
2011-05-15 Banants W 1-035.1 1217 1088 56.48% 27.26% 16.25%+0.69 +8.8 20
2011-05-15 @ Ulisses L 0-135.1 1088 1217 16.25% 27.26% 56.48%-0.69 -8.8 6
2011-05-21 Impuls W 2-152.7 913 1099 18.84% 27.94% 53.22%-0.59 +21.3 5
2011-05-21 @ Ararat L 1-252.7 1099 913 53.22% 27.94% 18.84%+0.59 -21.3 14
2011-05-21 Mika D 2-258.6 1079 1144 32.42% 29.32% 38.25%-0.10 +0.4 7
2011-05-21 @ Banants D 2-258.6 1144 1079 38.25% 29.32% 32.42%+0.10 -0.4 15
2011-05-22 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-234.4 972 1100 24.51% 28.84% 46.65%-0.36 -23.5 9
2011-05-22 @ Shirak W 2-034.4 1100 972 46.65% 28.84% 24.51%+0.36 +23.5 19
2011-05-22 Ulisses W 3-141.2 1258 1226 45.72% 28.93% 25.36%+0.30 +20.9 20
2011-05-22 @ Pyunik L 1-341.2 1226 1258 25.36% 28.93% 45.72%-0.30 -20.9 20
2011-05-29 Ararat W 5-029.4 1124 935 62.01% 25.70% 12.29%+0.93 +29.9 22
2011-05-29 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-529.4 935 1124 12.29% 25.70% 62.01%-0.93 -29.9 5
2011-05-29 Mika W 1-042.4 1077 1144 32.20% 29.32% 38.48%-0.11 +17.4 17
2011-05-29 @ Impuls L 0-142.4 1144 1077 38.48% 29.32% 32.20%+0.11 -17.4 15
2011-05-29 Shirak W 1-031.8 1205 948 67.38% 23.60% 9.02%+1.21 +4.9 23
2011-05-29 @ Ulisses L 0-131.8 948 1205 9.02% 23.60% 67.38%-1.21 -4.9 9
2011-05-29 Banants D 1-153.8 1279 1080 62.91% 25.39% 11.70%+0.98 -5.1 21
2011-05-29 @ Pyunik D 1-153.8 1080 1279 11.70% 25.39% 62.91%-0.98 +5.1 8
2011-06-11 Impuls W 2-146.3 1085 1095 40.13% 29.27% 30.60%+0.12 +13.9 11
2011-06-11 @ Banants L 1-246.3 1095 1085 30.60% 29.27% 40.13%-0.12 -13.9 17
2011-06-11 Pyunik W 2-045.6 943 1274 9.61% 24.05% 66.33%-1.18 +51.6 12
2011-06-11 @ Shirak L 0-245.6 1274 943 66.33% 24.05% 9.61%+1.18 -51.7 21
2011-06-12 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-142.2 1126 1153 37.72% 29.33% 32.94%+0.05 -17.1 15
2011-06-12 @ Mika W 1-042.2 1153 1126 32.94% 29.33% 37.72%-0.05 +17.1 25
2011-06-12 Ulisses D 1-153.9 905 1210 10.81% 24.87% 64.32%-1.08 +5.4 6
2011-06-12 @ Ararat D 1-153.9 1210 905 64.32% 24.87% 10.81%+1.08 -5.4 24
2011-06-18 Ararat W 1-030.6 1222 910 71.29% 21.69% 7.02%+1.44 +3.7 24
2011-06-18 @ Pyunik L 0-130.6 910 1222 7.02% 21.69% 71.29%-1.44 -3.7 6
2011-06-18 Banants D 1-152.6 995 1099 27.39% 29.10% 43.51%-0.26 +1.4 13
2011-06-18 @ Shirak D 1-152.6 1099 995 43.51% 29.10% 27.39%+0.26 -1.4 12
2011-06-19 Impuls D 0-047.5 1171 1081 52.43% 28.08% 19.49%+0.53 -3.5 26
2011-06-19 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 0-047.5 1081 1171 19.49% 28.08% 52.43%-0.53 +3.5 18
2011-06-19 Mika L 1-252.7 1204 1109 53.02% 27.97% 19.01%+0.55 -21.3 24
2011-06-19 @ Ulisses W 2-152.7 1109 1204 19.01% 27.97% 53.02%-0.55 +21.2 18
2011-06-25 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-140.4 1097 1167 31.72% 29.31% 38.98%-0.12 -15.1 12
2011-06-25 @ Banants W 1-040.4 1167 1097 38.98% 29.31% 31.72%+0.12 +15.1 29
2011-06-25 Ulisses L 0-139.2 1084 1183 27.97% 29.14% 42.90%-0.24 -13.8 18
2011-06-25 @ Impuls W 1-039.2 1183 1084 42.90% 29.14% 27.97%+0.24 +13.8 27
2011-06-26 Pyunik L 0-139.4 1130 1226 28.35% 29.16% 42.49%-0.22 -13.9 18
2011-06-26 @ Mika W 1-039.4 1226 1130 42.49% 29.16% 28.35%+0.22 +13.9 27
2011-06-26 Shirak W 2-149.6 906 996 29.07% 29.20% 41.73%-0.20 +17.4 9
2011-06-26 @ Ararat L 1-249.6 996 906 41.73% 29.20% 29.07%+0.20 -17.4 13
2011-07-23 Pyunik D 1-152.9 1070 1240 20.26% 28.23% 51.51%-0.53 +2.9 19
2011-07-23 @ Impuls D 1-152.9 1240 1070 51.51% 28.23% 20.26%+0.53 -2.9 28
2011-07-23 Ulisses L 0-142.8 1182 1197 39.47% 29.29% 31.24%+0.11 -17.7 29
2011-07-23 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 1-042.8 1197 1182 31.24% 29.29% 39.47%-0.11 +17.7 30
2011-07-24 Shirak W 4-134.6 1116 979 57.33% 27.06% 15.61%+0.72 +19.6 21
2011-07-24 @ Mika L 1-434.6 979 1116 15.61% 27.06% 57.33%-0.72 -19.6 13
2011-07-24 Banants L 0-532.9 924 1082 21.36% 28.42% 50.22%-0.48 -49.2 9
2011-07-24 @ Ararat W 5-032.9 1082 924 50.22% 28.42% 21.36%+0.48 +49.2 15
2011-07-30 Gandzasar Kapan D 1-153.0 1237 1164 50.51% 28.38% 21.11%+0.46 -2.7 29
2011-07-30 @ Pyunik D 1-153.0 1164 1237 21.11% 28.38% 50.51%-0.46 +2.7 30
2011-07-30 Impuls L 2-349.7 959 1073 26.15% 29.00% 44.85%-0.30 -11.7 13
2011-07-30 @ Shirak W 3-249.7 1073 959 44.85% 29.00% 26.15%+0.30 +11.7 22
2011-07-31 Mika D 1-153.5 875 1136 13.21% 26.14% 60.65%-0.90 +4.7 10
2011-07-31 @ Ararat D 1-153.5 1136 875 60.65% 26.14% 13.21%+0.90 -4.7 22
2011-07-31 Ulisses W 2-149.5 1131 1215 29.94% 29.24% 40.82%-0.17 +17.1 18
2011-07-31 @ Banants L 1-249.5 1215 1131 40.82% 29.24% 29.94%+0.17 -17.1 30
2011-08-06 Pyunik D 1-152.8 1197 1234 36.34% 29.35% 34.31%+0.01 -0.2 31
2011-08-06 @ Ulisses D 1-152.8 1234 1197 34.31% 29.35% 36.34%-0.01 +0.2 30
2011-08-06 Shirak W 4-027.8 1167 948 64.54% 24.78% 10.68%+1.06 +21.0 33
2011-08-06 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-427.8 948 1167 10.68% 24.78% 64.54%-1.06 -21.0 13
2011-08-06 Banants D 0-047.2 1131 1148 39.15% 29.30% 31.55%+0.10 -0.7 23
2011-08-06 @ Mika D 0-047.2 1148 1131 31.55% 29.30% 39.15%-0.10 +0.7 19
2011-08-07 Ararat W 2-139.3 1085 879 63.42% 25.21% 11.38%+1.00 +5.9 25
2011-08-07 @ Impuls L 1-239.3 879 1085 11.38% 25.21% 63.42%-1.00 -5.9 10
2011-08-13 Ulisses L 0-230.0 927 1197 12.66% 25.88% 61.46%-0.94 -13.2 13
2011-08-13 @ Shirak W 2-030.0 1197 927 61.46% 25.88% 12.66%+0.94 +13.1 34
2011-08-14 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-132.5 873 1188 10.33% 24.56% 65.11%-1.12 -5.7 10
2011-08-14 @ Ararat W 1-032.5 1188 873 65.11% 24.56% 10.33%+1.12 +5.7 36
2011-08-14 Impuls W 2-144.4 1131 1091 46.60% 28.85% 24.56%+0.33 +11.8 26
2011-08-14 @ Mika L 1-244.4 1091 1131 24.56% 28.85% 46.60%-0.33 -11.8 25
2011-08-14 Pyunik W 3-038.2 1149 1235 29.66% 29.23% 41.11%-0.18 +50.0 22
2011-08-14 @ Banants L 0-338.2 1235 1149 41.11% 29.23% 29.66%+0.18 -50.0 30
2011-08-20 Ararat W 5-026.0 1210 868 73.27% 20.61% 6.12%+1.56 +14.0 37
2011-08-20 @ Ulisses L 0-526.0 868 1210 6.12% 20.61% 73.27%-1.56 -14.0 10
2011-08-20 Banants W 3-146.9 1079 1199 25.46% 28.94% 45.61%-0.32 +32.4 28
2011-08-20 @ Impuls L 1-346.9 1199 1079 45.61% 28.94% 25.46%+0.32 -32.4 22
2011-08-21 Mika D 2-258.9 1194 1142 48.04% 28.69% 23.27%+0.37 -1.7 37
2011-08-21 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 2-258.9 1142 1194 23.27% 28.69% 48.04%-0.37 +1.7 27
2011-08-21 Shirak W 1-031.5 1185 914 68.44% 23.11% 8.45%+1.27 +4.6 33
2011-08-21 @ Pyunik L 0-131.5 914 1185 8.45% 23.11% 68.44%-1.27 -4.6 13
2011-08-27 Pyunik L 0-132.0 854 1189 9.41% 23.90% 66.69%-1.20 -5.1 10
2011-08-27 @ Ararat W 1-032.0 1189 854 66.69% 23.90% 9.41%+1.20 +5.1 36
2011-08-27 Shirak W 3-134.3 1167 909 67.47% 23.56% 8.97%+1.21 +8.0 25
2011-08-27 @ Banants L 1-334.3 909 1167 8.97% 23.56% 67.47%-1.21 -8.0 13
2011-08-28 Gandzasar Kapan D 1-152.6 1112 1192 30.29% 29.26% 40.45%-0.16 +0.9 29
2011-08-28 @ Impuls D 1-152.6 1192 1112 40.45% 29.26% 30.29%+0.16 -0.9 38
2011-08-28 Ulisses L 0-140.0 1144 1224 30.33% 29.26% 40.41%-0.16 -14.6 27
2011-08-28 @ Mika W 1-040.0 1224 1144 40.41% 29.26% 30.33%+0.16 +14.6 40
2011-09-10 Ararat W 1-037.5 901 849 48.14% 28.68% 23.18%+0.38 +11.9 16
2011-09-10 @ Shirak L 0-137.5 849 901 23.18% 28.68% 48.14%-0.38 -11.9 10
2011-09-10 Impuls W 2-141.6 1239 1112 56.27% 27.31% 16.42%+0.68 +8.4 43
2011-09-10 @ Ulisses L 1-241.6 1112 1239 16.42% 27.31% 56.27%-0.68 -8.4 29
2011-09-10 Mika L 1-251.9 1194 1129 49.61% 28.50% 21.89%+0.43 -20.1 36
2011-09-10 @ Pyunik W 2-151.9 1129 1194 21.89% 28.50% 49.61%-0.43 +20.1 30
2011-09-10 Banants L 0-144.0 1191 1175 43.67% 29.09% 27.24%+0.23 -19.1 38
2011-09-10 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 1-044.0 1175 1191 27.24% 29.09% 43.67%-0.23 +19.1 28
2011-09-14 Pyunik L 1-249.6 1172 1174 41.20% 29.23% 29.58%+0.16 -17.2 38
2011-09-14 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 2-149.6 1174 1172 29.58% 29.23% 41.20%-0.16 +17.2 39
2011-09-14 Banants W 1-037.8 1247 1194 48.29% 28.66% 23.05%+0.38 +11.9 46
2011-09-14 @ Ulisses L 0-137.8 1194 1247 23.05% 28.66% 48.29%-0.38 -11.9 28
2011-09-17 Mika D 1-153.3 913 1150 14.82% 26.79% 58.39%-0.80 +4.2 17
2011-09-17 @ Shirak D 1-153.3 1150 913 58.39% 26.79% 14.82%+0.80 -4.2 31
2011-09-18 Ararat W 1-030.0 1182 837 73.44% 20.52% 6.05%+1.57 +3.1 31
2011-09-18 @ Banants L 0-130.0 837 1182 6.05% 20.52% 73.44%-1.57 -3.1 10
2011-09-18 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-047.8 1259 1155 54.00% 27.79% 18.21%+0.59 -3.8 47
2011-09-18 @ Ulisses D 0-047.8 1155 1259 18.21% 27.79% 54.00%-0.59 +3.8 39
2011-09-25 Ararat W 2-027.1 1145 834 71.26% 21.71% 7.03%+1.43 +7.0 34
2011-09-25 @ Mika L 0-227.1 834 1145 7.03% 21.71% 71.26%-1.43 -7.0 10
2011-09-25 Shirak W 2-139.8 1104 917 61.85% 25.75% 12.40%+0.93 +6.4 32
2011-09-25 @ Impuls L 1-239.8 917 1104 12.40% 25.75% 61.85%-0.93 -6.4 17
2011-10-01 Impuls L 0-229.6 827 1111 11.90% 25.50% 62.61%-0.99 -12.4 10
2011-10-01 @ Ararat W 2-029.6 1111 827 62.61% 25.50% 11.90%+0.99 +12.4 35
2011-10-01 Ulisses D 0-047.4 1191 1255 32.51% 29.33% 38.16%-0.10 +0.5 40
2011-10-01 @ Pyunik D 0-047.4 1255 1191 38.16% 29.33% 32.51%+0.10 -0.5 48
2011-10-02 Gandzasar Kapan W 1-047.8 911 1159 14.06% 26.49% 59.45%-0.84 +24.9 20
2011-10-02 @ Shirak L 0-147.8 1159 911 59.45% 26.49% 14.06%+0.84 -24.9 39
2011-10-02 Mika W 3-140.9 1185 1152 45.74% 28.92% 25.34%+0.30 +20.9 34
2011-10-02 @ Banants L 1-340.9 1152 1185 25.34% 28.92% 45.74%-0.30 -20.9 34
2011-10-14 Impuls D 2-259.0 1192 1123 50.11% 28.43% 21.46%+0.45 -2.0 41
2011-10-14 @ Pyunik D 2-259.0 1123 1192 21.46% 28.43% 50.11%-0.45 +2.0 36
2011-10-16 Ararat W 2-026.9 1134 814 71.78% 21.43% 6.79%+1.47 +6.8 42
2011-10-16 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-226.9 814 1134 6.79% 21.43% 71.78%-1.47 -6.8 10
2011-10-16 Shirak D 2-261.0 1255 936 71.76% 21.44% 6.80%+1.46 -4.9 49
2011-10-16 @ Ulisses D 2-261.0 936 1255 6.80% 21.44% 71.76%-1.46 +4.9 21
2011-10-17 Mika L 0-239.4 1125 1131 40.58% 29.25% 30.17%+0.14 -34.1 36
2011-10-17 @ Impuls W 2-039.4 1131 1125 30.17% 29.25% 40.58%-0.14 +34.1 37
2011-10-17 Banants L 0-337.7 1190 1206 39.29% 29.30% 31.41%+0.10 -48.3 41
2011-10-17 @ Pyunik W 3-037.7 1206 1190 31.41% 29.30% 39.29%-0.10 +48.3 37
2011-10-22 Gandzasar Kapan W 1-038.7 1166 1141 44.75% 29.01% 26.24%+0.27 +13.1 40
2011-10-22 @ Mika L 0-138.7 1141 1166 26.24% 29.01% 44.75%-0.27 -13.1 42
2011-10-22 Impuls W 3-245.3 1254 1091 59.78% 26.40% 13.82%+0.83 +6.8 40
2011-10-22 @ Banants L 2-345.3 1091 1254 13.82% 26.40% 59.78%-0.83 -6.8 36
2011-10-22 Pyunik D 0-047.6 941 1142 17.49% 27.61% 54.90%-0.65 +4.0 22
2011-10-22 @ Shirak D 0-047.6 1142 941 54.90% 27.61% 17.49%+0.65 -4.0 42
2011-10-22 Ulisses L 1-236.1 807 1250 5.80% 20.19% 74.01%-1.64 -2.8 10
2011-10-22 @ Ararat W 2-136.1 1250 807 74.01% 20.19% 5.80%+1.64 +2.8 52
2011-10-29 Ararat W 1-030.2 1138 805 72.66% 20.95% 6.39%+1.52 +3.3 45
2011-10-29 @ Pyunik L 0-130.2 805 1138 6.39% 20.95% 72.66%-1.52 -3.3 10
2011-10-29 Impuls W 1-037.9 1127 1084 47.06% 28.80% 24.14%+0.34 +12.3 45
2011-10-29 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-137.9 1084 1127 24.14% 28.80% 47.06%-0.34 -12.3 36
2011-10-29 Mika L 0-340.9 1253 1179 50.69% 28.35% 20.96%+0.47 -59.4 52
2011-10-29 @ Ulisses W 3-040.9 1179 1253 20.96% 28.35% 50.69%-0.47 +59.4 43
2011-10-29 Banants L 0-228.9 945 1261 10.25% 24.50% 65.24%-1.12 -10.6 22
2011-10-29 @ Shirak W 2-028.9 1261 945 65.24% 24.50% 10.25%+1.12 +10.6 43
2011-11-05 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-047.9 1272 1140 56.80% 27.19% 16.01%+0.70 -4.4 44
2011-11-05 @ Banants D 0-047.9 1140 1272 16.01% 27.19% 56.80%-0.70 +4.4 46
2011-11-05 Pyunik D 0-047.7 1238 1141 53.21% 27.94% 18.85%+0.56 -3.6 44
2011-11-05 @ Mika D 0-047.7 1141 1238 18.85% 27.94% 53.21%-0.56 +3.6 46
2011-11-05 Shirak L 1-340.3 801 934 24.02% 28.79% 47.19%-0.38 -20.0 10
2011-11-05 @ Ararat W 3-140.3 934 801 47.19% 28.79% 24.02%+0.38 +20.0 25
2011-11-05 Ulisses D 1-152.7 1072 1193 25.24% 28.92% 45.85%-0.33 +1.9 37
2011-11-05 @ Impuls D 1-152.7 1193 1072 45.85% 28.92% 25.24%+0.33 -1.9 53

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2011-06-11 9.61% @ Shirak 943 2 Pyunik 1274 0
2 2011-04-30 12.46% Impuls 1060 1 @ Ulisses 1246 0
3 2011-10-02 14.06% @ Shirak 911 1 Gandzasar Kapan 1159 0
4 2011-05-01 16.47% Mika 1138 1 @ Pyunik 1264 0
5 2011-05-07 17.23% @ Shirak 957 1 Mika 1162 0
6 2011-05-21 18.84% @ Ararat 913 2 Impuls 1099 1
7 2011-06-19 19.01% Mika 1109 2 @ Ulisses 1204 1
8 2011-10-29 20.96% Mika 1179 3 @ Ulisses 1253 0
9 2011-09-10 21.89% Mika 1129 2 @ Pyunik 1194 1
10 2011-08-20 25.46% @ Impuls 1079 3 Banants 1199 1
11 2011-09-10 27.24% Banants 1175 1 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1191 0
12 2011-04-16 27.78% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1070 1 Mika 1170 0
13 2011-03-19 28.05% Ulisses 1162 3 @ Banants 1172 1
14 2011-06-26 29.07% @ Ararat 906 2 Shirak 996 1
15 2011-04-16 29.26% @ Impuls 1042 1 Banants 1131 0
16 2011-09-14 29.58% Pyunik 1174 2 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1172 1
17 2011-08-14 29.66% @ Banants 1149 3 Pyunik 1235 0
18 2011-07-31 29.94% @ Banants 1131 2 Ulisses 1215 1
19 2011-10-17 30.17% Mika 1131 2 @ Impuls 1125 0
20 2011-03-20 30.95% @ Shirak 969 2 Impuls 1044 1
21 2011-07-23 31.24% Ulisses 1197 1 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1182 0
22 2011-10-17 31.41% Banants 1206 3 @ Pyunik 1190 0
23 2011-05-29 32.20% @ Impuls 1077 1 Mika 1144 0
24 2011-04-02 32.92% @ Ulisses 1190 1 Pyunik 1251 0
25 2011-06-12 32.94% Gandzasar Kapan 1153 1 @ Mika 1126 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-10-29 59.36 Mika 3 1179 20.96% @ Ulisses 0 1253 50.69% 28.35%
2 2011-06-11 51.65 @ Shirak 2 943 9.61% Pyunik 0 1274 66.33% 24.05%
3 2011-08-14 50.01 @ Banants 3 1149 29.66% Pyunik 0 1235 41.11% 29.23%
4 2011-07-24 49.16 Banants 5 1082 50.22% @ Ararat 0 924 21.36% 28.42%
5 2011-10-17 48.32 Banants 3 1206 31.41% @ Pyunik 0 1190 39.29% 29.30%
6 2011-03-19 37.53 Mika 3 1126 43.09% @ Ararat 0 1025 27.79% 29.12%
7 2011-10-17 34.10 Mika 2 1131 30.17% @ Impuls 0 1125 40.58% 29.25%
8 2011-08-20 32.39 @ Impuls 3 1079 25.46% Banants 1 1199 45.61% 28.94%
9 2011-03-19 30.78 Ulisses 3 1162 28.05% @ Banants 1 1172 42.80% 29.14%
10 2011-05-29 29.86 @ Gandzasar Kapan 5 1124 62.01% Ararat 0 935 12.29% 25.70%
11 2011-05-01 28.70 @ Gandzasar Kapan 2 1089 38.67% Banants 0 1109 32.02% 29.31%
12 2011-04-30 25.79 Impuls 1 1060 12.46% @ Ulisses 0 1246 61.75% 25.78%
13 2011-10-02 24.95 @ Shirak 1 911 14.06% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1159 59.45% 26.49%
14 2011-05-01 23.73 Mika 1 1138 16.47% @ Pyunik 0 1264 56.21% 27.33%
15 2011-04-03 23.52 @ Impuls 2 1027 46.57% Ararat 0 988 24.58% 28.85%
16 2011-05-22 23.47 Gandzasar Kapan 2 1100 46.65% @ Shirak 0 972 24.51% 28.84%
17 2011-05-07 23.37 @ Shirak 1 957 17.23% Mika 0 1162 55.22% 27.54%
18 2011-05-21 21.32 @ Ararat 2 913 18.84% Impuls 1 1099 53.22% 27.94%
19 2011-06-19 21.26 Mika 2 1109 19.01% @ Ulisses 1 1204 53.02% 27.97%
20 2011-05-15 21.24 Pyunik 3 1237 45.08% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1121 25.94% 28.98%
21 2011-08-06 21.02 @ Gandzasar Kapan 4 1167 64.54% Shirak 0 948 10.68% 24.78%
22 2011-05-22 20.87 @ Pyunik 3 1258 45.72% Ulisses 1 1226 25.36% 28.93%
23 2011-10-02 20.86 @ Banants 3 1185 45.74% Mika 1 1152 25.34% 28.92%
24 2011-09-10 20.06 Mika 2 1129 21.89% @ Pyunik 1 1194 49.61% 28.50%
25 2011-11-05 20.01 Shirak 3 934 47.19% @ Ararat 1 801 24.02% 28.79%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-10-16 61.0 @ Ulisses 2 1255 71.76% Shirak 2 936 6.80% 21.44%
2 2011-05-07 59.5 @ Pyunik 2 1240 58.90% Impuls 2 1086 14.45% 26.65%
3 2011-04-23 59.4 @ Banants 2 1113 59.14% Shirak 2 956 14.28% 26.58%
4 2011-10-14 59.0 @ Pyunik 2 1192 50.11% Impuls 2 1123 21.46% 28.43%
5 2011-08-21 58.9 @ Gandzasar Kapan 2 1194 48.04% Mika 2 1142 23.27% 28.69%
6 2011-04-23 58.6 @ Impuls 2 1061 37.64% Gandzasar Kapan 2 1089 33.02% 29.34%
7 2011-05-21 58.6 @ Banants 2 1079 32.42% Mika 2 1144 38.25% 29.32%
8 2011-03-20 54.0 @ Pyunik 1 1257 64.67% Gandzasar Kapan 1 1036 10.60% 24.73%
9 2011-06-12 53.9 @ Ararat 1 905 10.81% Ulisses 1 1210 64.32% 24.87%
10 2011-05-29 53.8 @ Pyunik 1 1279 62.91% Banants 1 1080 11.70% 25.39%
11 2011-07-31 53.5 @ Ararat 1 875 13.21% Mika 1 1136 60.65% 26.14%
12 2011-09-17 53.3 @ Shirak 1 913 14.82% Mika 1 1150 58.39% 26.79%
13 2011-07-30 53.0 @ Pyunik 1 1237 50.51% Gandzasar Kapan 1 1164 21.11% 28.38%
14 2011-07-23 52.9 @ Impuls 1 1070 20.26% Pyunik 1 1240 51.51% 28.23%
15 2011-03-05 52.8 @ Ararat 1 1023 21.98% Banants 1 1175 49.51% 28.51%
16 2011-04-10 52.8 Pyunik 4 1234 41.83% @ Banants 3 1143 28.97% 29.20%
17 2011-08-06 52.8 @ Ulisses 1 1197 36.34% Pyunik 1 1234 34.31% 29.35%
18 2011-05-21 52.7 @ Ararat 2 913 18.84% Impuls 1 1099 53.22% 27.94%
19 2011-06-19 52.7 Mika 2 1109 19.01% @ Ulisses 1 1204 53.02% 27.97%
20 2011-11-05 52.7 @ Impuls 1 1072 25.24% Ulisses 1 1193 45.85% 28.92%
21 2011-04-30 52.6 @ Shirak 1 959 46.00% Ararat 1 924 25.10% 28.90%
22 2011-06-18 52.6 @ Shirak 1 995 27.39% Banants 1 1099 43.51% 29.10%
23 2011-08-28 52.6 @ Impuls 1 1112 30.29% Gandzasar Kapan 1 1192 40.45% 29.26%
24 2011-09-10 51.9 Mika 2 1129 21.89% @ Pyunik 1 1194 49.61% 28.50%
25 2011-04-23 51.1 Ulisses 3 1233 40.68% @ Mika 2 1151 30.07% 29.25%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-08-20 26.0 @ Ulisses 5 1210 73.27% Ararat 0 868 6.12% 20.61%
2 2011-04-17 26.4 @ Ulisses 3 1221 68.41% Ararat 0 950 8.47% 23.13%
3 2011-10-16 26.9 @ Gandzasar Kapan 2 1134 71.78% Ararat 0 814 6.79% 21.43%
4 2011-09-25 27.1 @ Mika 2 1145 71.26% Ararat 0 834 7.03% 21.71%
5 2011-08-06 27.8 @ Gandzasar Kapan 4 1167 64.54% Shirak 0 948 10.68% 24.78%
6 2011-10-29 28.9 Banants 2 1261 65.24% @ Shirak 0 945 10.25% 24.50%
7 2011-05-29 29.4 @ Gandzasar Kapan 5 1124 62.01% Ararat 0 935 12.29% 25.70%
8 2011-10-01 29.6 Impuls 2 1111 62.61% @ Ararat 0 827 11.90% 25.50%
9 2011-08-13 30.0 Ulisses 2 1197 61.46% @ Shirak 0 927 12.66% 25.88%
10 2011-09-18 30.0 @ Banants 1 1182 73.44% Ararat 0 837 6.05% 20.52%
11 2011-10-29 30.2 @ Pyunik 1 1138 72.66% Ararat 0 805 6.39% 20.95%
12 2011-06-18 30.6 @ Pyunik 1 1222 71.29% Ararat 0 910 7.02% 21.69%
13 2011-04-17 31.2 @ Pyunik 1 1247 69.52% Shirak 0 960 7.89% 22.59%
14 2011-08-21 31.5 @ Pyunik 1 1185 68.44% Shirak 0 914 8.45% 23.11%
15 2011-05-29 31.8 @ Ulisses 1 1205 67.38% Shirak 0 948 9.02% 23.60%
16 2011-08-27 32.0 Pyunik 1 1189 66.69% @ Ararat 0 854 9.41% 23.90%
17 2011-04-23 32.3 Pyunik 4 1251 64.98% @ Ararat 1 938 10.41% 24.61%
18 2011-08-14 32.5 Gandzasar Kapan 1 1188 65.11% @ Ararat 0 873 10.33% 24.56%
19 2011-07-24 32.9 Banants 5 1082 50.22% @ Ararat 0 924 21.36% 28.42%
20 2011-03-19 34.0 Mika 3 1126 43.09% @ Ararat 0 1025 27.79% 29.12%
21 2011-08-27 34.3 @ Banants 3 1167 67.47% Shirak 1 909 8.97% 23.56%
22 2011-05-22 34.4 Gandzasar Kapan 2 1100 46.65% @ Shirak 0 972 24.51% 28.84%
23 2011-04-03 34.5 @ Impuls 2 1027 46.57% Ararat 0 988 24.58% 28.85%
24 2011-07-24 34.6 @ Mika 4 1116 57.33% Shirak 1 979 15.61% 27.06%
25 2011-05-15 35.1 @ Ulisses 1 1217 56.48% Banants 0 1088 16.25% 27.26%