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2012-13 Armenian Premier League Season

168 games

Final

Champion

Shirak

88 points · 4th Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Shirak

17.95 points above expected

88 points · 70.05 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Banants

17.28 points below expected

31 points · 48.28 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Shirak Champion 42 26 10 6 88 70 38 +32 70.05 +17.95
2 Mika 42 24 7 11 79 57 40 +17 78.61 +0.39
3 Gandzasar Kapan 42 18 13 11 67 48 37 +11 67.55 -0.55
4 Pyunik 42 19 6 17 63 67 51 +16 64.19 -1.19
5 Impuls 42 18 6 18 60 66 65 +1 58.82 +1.18
6 Ulisses 42 11 12 19 45 41 50 -9 56.19 -11.19
7 Ararat 42 9 6 27 33 28 69 -41 22.11 +10.89
8 Banants 42 5 16 21 31 37 64 -27 48.28 -17.28

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shirak 88 70.05 +17.95
2 Ararat 33 22.11 +10.89
3 Impuls 60 58.82 +1.18
4 Mika 79 78.61 +0.39
5 Gandzasar Kapan 67 67.55 -0.55

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Banants 31 48.28 -17.28
2 Ulisses 45 56.19 -11.19
3 Pyunik 63 64.19 -1.19
4 Gandzasar Kapan 67 67.55 -0.55
5 Mika 79 78.61 +0.39

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shirak 8 Jun 3 – Aug 19 1 in 1,360
2 Ararat 3 Sep 30 – Oct 27 1 in 339
3 Impuls 3 Apr 7 – Apr 21 1 in 42
4 Mika 6 May 20 – Jun 23 1 in 26
5 Ulisses 3 Jun 10 – Jun 24 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Banants 4 May 16 – Jun 3 1 in 74
2 Impuls 3 Sep 29 – Oct 27 1 in 42
3 Ulisses 4 Jun 30 – Aug 10 1 in 30
4 Ararat 10 Apr 28 – Jun 24 1 in 22
5 Pyunik 3 May 24 – Jun 20 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shirak 13 May 16 – Sep 2 1 in 330
2 Pyunik 7 Nov 25 – Apr 13 1 in 29
3 Ararat 3 Sep 30 – Oct 27 1 in 18
4 Gandzasar Kapan 6 Apr 13 – May 18 1 in 13
5 Impuls 4 Aug 25 – Sep 19 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Banants 16 Jun 20 – Nov 10 1 in 163
2 Ulisses 8 Apr 1 – May 16 1 in 131
3 Gandzasar Kapan 5 Aug 26 – Sep 29 1 in 38
4 Impuls 6 Sep 2 – Oct 27 1 in 25
5 Mika 4 Nov 4 – Nov 21 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Shirak 1320 88 +37 11 10.0 +1.0
Mika 1142 79 -38 6 8.7 -2.7
Gandzasar Kapan 1199 67 +35 9 7.2 +1.8
Pyunik 1155 63 -44 4 7.3 -3.3
Impuls 1045 60 -64 6 7.1 -1.1
Ulisses 1093 45 +66 8 6.7 +1.3
Ararat 914 33 +5 5 5.0 -0.0
Banants 923 31 -9 5 4.5 +0.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARA BAN GK IMP MIK PYU SHI ULI
Ararat —
1-3-2
5.06
2-1-3
2.33
3-0-3
3.11
2-0-4
2.22
0-0-6
3.11
0-0-6
2.83
1-2-3
3.90
Banants
2-3-1
11.62
 —
0-3-3
5.81
0-2-4
7.35
1-1-4
4.31
1-1-4
6.51
1-2-3
5.38
0-4-2
6.69
Gandzasar Kapan
3-1-2
14.51
3-3-0
10.81
 —
3-1-2
9.35
4-1-1
6.80
3-2-1
9.11
0-3-3
8.13
2-2-2
9.61
Impuls
3-0-3
13.66
4-2-0
9.26
2-1-3
7.23
 —
1-2-3
5.73
4-0-2
7.62
1-1-4
6.29
3-0-3
9.19
Mika
4-0-2
14.66
4-1-1
12.35
1-1-4
9.78
3-2-1
10.87
 —
4-1-1
10.58
2-2-2
9.81
6-0-0
11.15
Pyunik
6-0-0
13.62
4-1-1
10.11
1-2-3
7.45
2-0-4
8.95
1-1-4
6.01
 —
2-0-4
6.85
3-2-1
9.21
Shirak
6-0-0
13.97
3-2-1
11.33
3-3-0
8.48
4-1-1
10.32
2-2-2
6.78
4-0-2
9.75
 —
4-2-0
9.60
Ulisses
3-2-1
12.79
2-4-0
9.89
2-2-2
6.98
3-0-3
7.38
0-0-6
5.45
1-2-3
7.35
0-2-4
7.02
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.68 +10.9
Allowed 0.65 -12.9
Differential 0.91 +8.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%10.42%7.14%2.98%1.19%0.30%30.36%
110.42%11.31%8.04%3.87%0.60%—34.23%
27.14%8.04%2.98%2.38%1.19%0.30%22.02%
32.98%3.87%2.38%—0.30%—9.52%
41.19%0.60%1.19%0.30%——3.27%
5+0.30%—0.30%———0.60%
Total30.36%34.23%22.02%9.52%3.27%0.60%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.23 +0.00
SD 1.13 1.13 1.64
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 168

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%16.67%14.29%4.76%2.38%2.38%50.00%
111.90%4.76%7.14%9.52%2.38%—35.71%
2—7.14%—4.76%——11.90%
3—2.38%————2.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%30.95%21.43%19.05%4.76%2.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 1.64 -0.98
SD 0.79 1.36 1.58
CV 1.18 0.83 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 42

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%14.29%9.52%4.76%4.76%—42.86%
1—21.43%9.52%———30.95%
24.76%2.38%7.14%4.76%—2.38%21.43%
32.38%2.38%————4.76%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%40.48%26.19%9.52%4.76%2.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.52 -0.64
SD 0.92 1.17 1.50
CV 1.04 0.77 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 42

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%2.38%2.38%——26.19%
116.67%14.29%7.14%2.38%——40.48%
211.90%7.14%2.38%2.38%2.38%—26.19%
34.76%—2.38%———7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total47.62%28.57%14.29%7.14%2.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 0.88 +0.26
SD 0.90 1.06 1.34
CV 0.79 1.21 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 42

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%4.76%2.38%2.38%—16.67%
19.52%9.52%11.90%2.38%2.38%—35.71%
27.14%9.52%4.76%2.38%4.76%—28.57%
34.76%4.76%2.38%—2.38%—14.29%
4—2.38%————2.38%
5+——2.38%———2.38%
Total21.43%33.33%26.19%7.14%11.90%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.55 +0.02
SD 1.15 1.25 1.77
CV 0.73 0.81 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 42

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%2.38%——23.81%
121.43%7.14%7.14%———35.71%
24.76%14.29%2.38%2.38%——23.81%
34.76%4.76%4.76%———14.29%
4——2.38%———2.38%
5+———————
Total38.10%33.33%23.81%4.76%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 0.95 +0.40
SD 1.08 0.91 1.36
CV 0.79 0.95 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 42

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.38%14.29%4.76%4.76%——26.19%
19.52%11.90%9.52%4.76%——35.71%
27.14%——2.38%——9.52%
32.38%7.14%4.76%———14.29%
44.76%—7.14%———11.90%
5+2.38%—————2.38%
Total28.57%33.33%26.19%11.90%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.60 1.21 +0.38
SD 1.52 1.00 1.96
CV 0.95 0.82 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 42

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%4.76%—2.38%——14.29%
17.14%11.90%2.38%4.76%——26.19%
219.05%19.05%4.76%———42.86%
32.38%7.14%2.38%———11.90%
42.38%——2.38%——4.76%
5+———————
Total38.10%42.86%9.52%9.52%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 0.90 +0.76
SD 1.03 0.93 1.38
CV 0.62 1.03 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 42

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.90%14.29%———42.86%
17.14%9.52%9.52%7.14%——33.33%
22.38%4.76%2.38%—2.38%—11.90%
32.38%2.38%2.38%———7.14%
42.38%2.38%————4.76%
5+———————
Total30.95%30.95%28.57%7.14%2.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.98 1.19 -0.21
SD 1.14 1.04 1.52
CV 1.16 0.87 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 42

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shirak 1320 88 70.05 +17.95 100.0% 49 58 65 70 74 83 85
Gandzasar Kapan 1199 67 67.55 -0.55 49.0% 51 56 62 68 72 80 93
Pyunik 1155 63 64.19 -1.19 46.0% 46 50 58 65 70 75 76
Mika 1142 79 78.61 +0.39 54.0% 62 63 74 78 83 93 101
Ulisses 1093 45 56.19 -11.19 10.0% 34 43 52 56 61 70 77
Impuls 1045 60 58.82 +1.18 66.0% 39 48 53 58 63 75 81
Banants 923 31 48.28 -17.28 1.0% 22 37 43 49 53 59 69
Ararat 914 33 22.11 +10.89 96.0% 12 14 18 22 25 31 37

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+20.24%
Strong Edge
48.81%22.62%28.57%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 71.30 Elo pts.
351 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
01000
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.46 goals
Neutral
-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
23%
Shirak, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.21/gm
Comfortable
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6 * Some Luck: 6 to 8.99 * Lucky: 8.99 to 11.99 * Wild Swing: 11.99 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.66 * Close: 0.66 to 0.99 * Off: 0.99 to 1.32 * Way Off: 1.32 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
10.42 points
Lucky
07.5019
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Pinpoint
00.822
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
100.00%
Shirak
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
Banants
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Balanced
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 137.32
2.38
Moderate Separation
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
70%
Even
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Even
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
65%
Very Frequent
0%64%100%
Blowouts
Expected
11%
Rare
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.12
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.19
Weak Carryover
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.19
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.52
Overconfident
0.3767971.001.6232
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.107
Well Within Noise
00.1230.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Shirak23.00%26.00%28.00%13.00%7.00%3.00%——
Mika63.00%23.00%6.00%6.00%2.00%———
Gandzasar Kapan6.00%27.00%22.00%23.00%16.00%6.00%——
Pyunik5.00%18.00%21.00%22.00%22.00%9.00%3.00%—
Impuls2.00%3.00%11.00%16.00%31.00%27.00%10.00%—
Ulisses1.00%2.00%10.00%15.00%17.00%37.00%18.00%—
Ararat——————1.00%99.00%
Banants—1.00%2.00%5.00%5.00%18.00%68.00%1.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Gandzasar Kapan 100% —
Impuls 100% —
Mika 100% —
Pyunik 100% —
Shirak 100% —
Ulisses 100% —
Banants 99.00% 1.00%
Ararat 1.00% 99.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2012-03-31 Mika L 1-243.8 1074 1234 26.28% 23.74% 49.99%-0.25 -14.6 0
2012-03-31 @ Impuls W 2-143.8 1234 1074 49.99% 23.74% 26.28%+0.25 +14.6 3
2012-03-31 Pyunik D 1-155.1 1267 1145 60.98% 22.83% 16.18%+0.55 -5.4 1
2012-03-31 @ Banants D 1-155.1 1145 1267 16.18% 22.83% 60.98%-0.55 +5.4 1
2012-04-01 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-049.7 1192 1144 53.41% 23.55% 23.04%+0.34 -3.9 1
2012-04-01 @ Ulisses D 0-049.7 1144 1192 23.04% 23.55% 53.41%-0.34 +3.9 1
2012-04-01 Shirak L 1-243.3 781 954 24.93% 23.67% 51.40%-0.29 -14.0 0
2012-04-01 @ Ararat W 2-143.3 954 781 51.40% 23.67% 24.93%+0.29 +14.0 3
2012-04-07 Ararat W 3-022.2 1249 767 80.87% 16.41% 2.73%+1.57 +4.5 6
2012-04-07 @ Mika L 0-322.2 767 1249 2.73% 16.41% 80.87%-1.57 -4.5 0
2012-04-07 Impuls L 1-348.9 1150 1059 58.02% 23.17% 18.81%+0.46 -48.5 1
2012-04-07 @ Pyunik W 3-148.9 1059 1150 18.81% 23.17% 58.02%-0.46 +48.5 3
2012-04-07 Ulisses W 1-046.6 968 1188 20.08% 23.30% 56.61%-0.42 +29.0 6
2012-04-07 @ Shirak L 0-146.6 1188 968 56.61% 23.30% 20.08%+0.42 -29.0 1
2012-04-07 Banants W 3-037.1 1148 1262 32.12% 23.93% 43.95%-0.12 +63.5 4
2012-04-07 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-337.1 1262 1148 43.95% 23.93% 32.12%+0.12 -63.5 1
2012-04-14 Ararat W 4-128.9 1107 763 75.35% 19.24% 5.41%+1.18 +8.0 6
2012-04-14 @ Impuls L 1-428.9 763 1107 5.41% 19.24% 75.35%-1.18 -8.0 0
2012-04-14 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-139.6 1102 1212 32.64% 23.94% 43.42%-0.11 -18.4 1
2012-04-14 @ Pyunik W 1-039.6 1212 1102 43.42% 23.94% 32.64%+0.11 +18.4 7
2012-04-15 Mika L 1-246.5 1159 1253 34.70% 23.97% 41.33%-0.07 -18.2 1
2012-04-15 @ Ulisses W 2-146.5 1253 1159 41.33% 23.97% 34.70%+0.07 +18.2 9
2012-04-16 Shirak W 3-026.4 1198 997 67.21% 21.77% 11.01%+0.78 +19.5 4
2012-04-16 @ Banants L 0-326.4 997 1198 11.01% 21.77% 67.21%-0.78 -19.5 6
2012-04-21 Impuls L 0-147.7 1230 1115 60.25% 22.93% 16.83%+0.53 -30.8 7
2012-04-21 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 1-047.7 1115 1230 16.83% 22.93% 60.25%-0.53 +30.8 9
2012-04-21 Pyunik L 0-139.7 977 1083 33.19% 23.95% 42.86%-0.10 -18.6 6
2012-04-21 @ Shirak W 1-039.7 1083 977 42.86% 23.95% 33.19%+0.10 +18.6 4
2012-04-22 Ulisses W 2-156.0 755 1141 8.96% 21.11% 69.93%-0.89 +33.5 3
2012-04-22 @ Ararat L 1-256.0 1141 755 69.93% 21.11% 8.96%+0.89 -33.5 1
2012-04-22 Banants W 2-142.9 1272 1218 54.11% 23.50% 22.39%+0.36 +12.8 12
2012-04-22 @ Mika L 1-242.9 1218 1272 22.39% 23.50% 54.11%-0.36 -12.8 4
2012-04-28 Ararat W 2-024.9 1205 788 78.45% 17.77% 3.78%+1.39 +4.4 7
2012-04-28 @ Banants L 0-224.9 788 1205 3.78% 17.77% 78.45%-1.39 -4.4 3
2012-04-28 Mika D 0-049.7 1102 1284 23.84% 23.60% 52.55%-0.32 +3.7 5
2012-04-28 @ Pyunik D 0-049.7 1284 1102 52.55% 23.60% 23.84%+0.32 -3.7 13
2012-05-05 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-242.9 1281 1199 57.06% 23.26% 19.68%+0.44 -55.1 13
2012-05-05 @ Mika W 2-042.9 1199 1281 19.68% 23.26% 57.06%-0.44 +55.1 10
2012-05-05 Impuls W 3-147.6 959 1146 23.33% 23.57% 53.11%-0.33 +44.6 9
2012-05-05 @ Shirak L 1-347.6 1146 959 53.11% 23.57% 23.33%+0.33 -44.6 9
2012-05-06 Pyunik L 2-344.1 784 1106 12.29% 22.11% 65.60%-0.71 -7.1 3
2012-05-06 @ Ararat W 3-244.1 1106 784 65.60% 22.11% 12.29%+0.71 +7.1 8
2012-05-06 Banants D 0-049.5 1107 1210 33.64% 23.96% 42.40%-0.09 +1.1 2
2012-05-06 @ Ulisses D 0-049.5 1210 1107 42.40% 23.96% 33.64%+0.09 -1.1 8
2012-05-08 Ulisses W 1-038.5 1102 1108 46.88% 23.86% 29.26%+0.18 +16.9 12
2012-05-08 @ Impuls L 0-138.5 1108 1102 29.26% 23.86% 46.88%-0.18 -16.9 2
2012-05-09 Shirak L 1-256.2 1254 1003 70.40% 20.98% 8.63%+0.92 -33.7 10
2012-05-09 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 2-156.2 1003 1254 8.63% 20.98% 70.40%-0.92 +33.7 12
2012-05-12 Pyunik D 1-154.6 1091 1113 44.94% 23.91% 31.15%+0.14 -1.5 3
2012-05-12 @ Ulisses D 1-154.6 1113 1091 31.15% 23.91% 44.94%-0.14 +1.5 9
2012-05-12 Banants D 1-154.7 1118 1208 35.35% 23.98% 40.67%-0.05 +0.6 13
2012-05-12 @ Impuls D 1-154.7 1208 1118 40.67% 23.98% 35.35%+0.05 -0.6 9
2012-05-13 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-130.6 777 1221 6.72% 20.08% 73.20%-1.06 -4.3 3
2012-05-13 @ Ararat W 1-030.6 1221 777 73.20% 20.08% 6.72%+1.06 +4.3 13
2012-05-13 Shirak W 2-138.9 1226 1037 66.29% 21.97% 11.74%+0.74 +7.1 16
2012-05-13 @ Mika L 1-238.9 1037 1226 11.74% 21.97% 66.29%-0.74 -7.1 12
2012-05-16 Ararat W 1-028.6 1225 772 79.81% 17.03% 3.16%+1.49 +1.9 16
2012-05-16 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-128.6 772 1225 3.16% 17.03% 79.81%-1.49 -1.9 3
2012-05-16 Impuls L 1-253.1 1208 1119 57.80% 23.19% 19.01%+0.46 -27.9 9
2012-05-16 @ Banants W 2-153.1 1119 1208 19.01% 23.19% 57.80%-0.46 +27.9 16
2012-05-16 Mika D 1-154.8 1030 1233 21.74% 23.45% 54.81%-0.37 +3.9 13
2012-05-16 @ Shirak D 1-154.8 1233 1030 54.81% 23.45% 21.74%+0.37 -3.9 17
2012-05-16 Ulisses W 4-242.9 1114 1090 50.73% 23.70% 25.57%+0.27 +22.1 12
2012-05-16 @ Pyunik L 2-442.9 1090 1114 25.57% 23.70% 50.73%-0.27 -22.1 3
2012-05-20 Ararat W 4-025.3 1034 771 71.13% 20.76% 8.11%+0.95 +18.8 16
2012-05-20 @ Shirak L 0-425.3 771 1034 8.11% 20.76% 71.13%-0.95 -18.8 3
2012-05-20 Impuls W 4-241.2 1229 1147 57.11% 23.26% 19.64%+0.44 +17.7 20
2012-05-20 @ Mika L 2-441.2 1147 1229 19.64% 23.26% 57.11%-0.44 -17.7 16
2012-05-20 Ulisses L 0-148.6 1227 1068 64.07% 22.38% 13.55%+0.66 -32.7 16
2012-05-20 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 1-048.6 1068 1227 13.55% 22.38% 64.07%-0.66 +32.7 6
2012-05-20 Banants W 4-034.2 1136 1180 41.89% 23.97% 34.14%+0.08 +68.1 15
2012-05-20 @ Pyunik L 0-434.2 1180 1136 34.14% 23.97% 41.89%-0.08 -68.1 9
2012-05-24 Pyunik W 3-035.4 1129 1204 37.46% 23.99% 38.55%-0.01 +57.2 19
2012-05-24 @ Impuls L 0-335.4 1204 1129 38.55% 23.99% 37.46%+0.01 -57.2 15
2012-05-26 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-140.8 1112 1194 36.45% 23.99% 39.57%-0.03 -20.0 9
2012-05-26 @ Banants W 1-040.8 1194 1112 39.57% 23.99% 36.45%+0.03 +20.0 19
2012-05-27 Mika L 0-323.8 752 1247 5.21% 19.09% 75.70%-1.21 -9.1 3
2012-05-27 @ Ararat W 3-023.8 1247 752 75.70% 19.09% 5.21%+1.21 +9.1 23
2012-05-27 Shirak D 1-154.7 1100 1053 53.43% 23.55% 23.02%+0.34 -3.5 7
2012-05-27 @ Ulisses D 1-154.7 1053 1100 23.02% 23.55% 53.43%-0.34 +3.5 17
2012-06-02 Impuls L 0-226.5 743 1186 6.72% 20.07% 73.21%-1.06 -8.2 3
2012-06-02 @ Ararat W 2-026.5 1186 743 73.21% 20.07% 6.72%+1.06 +8.2 22
2012-06-02 Ulisses W 3-135.5 1256 1097 64.04% 22.38% 13.57%+0.66 +14.2 26
2012-06-02 @ Mika L 1-335.5 1097 1256 13.57% 22.38% 64.04%-0.66 -14.2 7
2012-06-03 Banants W 2-145.8 1056 1092 43.00% 23.95% 33.05%+0.10 +17.5 20
2012-06-03 @ Shirak L 1-245.8 1092 1056 33.05% 23.95% 43.00%-0.10 -17.5 9
2012-06-09 Gandzasar Kapan D 1-154.8 1195 1214 45.18% 23.90% 30.92%+0.15 -1.6 23
2012-06-09 @ Impuls D 1-154.8 1214 1195 30.92% 23.90% 45.18%-0.15 +1.6 20
2012-06-10 Ararat W 3-131.9 1083 734 75.51% 19.17% 5.32%+1.19 +5.5 10
2012-06-10 @ Ulisses L 1-331.9 734 1083 5.32% 19.17% 75.51%-1.19 -5.5 3
2012-06-16 Impuls W 4-036.7 1088 1193 33.32% 23.95% 42.73%-0.10 +81.1 13
2012-06-16 @ Ulisses L 0-436.7 1193 1088 42.73% 23.95% 33.32%+0.10 -81.1 23
2012-06-16 Banants L 1-334.3 729 1074 10.94% 21.75% 67.31%-0.78 -11.5 3
2012-06-16 @ Ararat W 3-134.3 1074 729 67.31% 21.75% 10.94%+0.78 +11.5 12
2012-06-17 Gandzasar Kapan W 2-150.2 1074 1216 28.52% 23.83% 47.65%-0.20 +23.4 23
2012-06-17 @ Shirak L 1-250.2 1216 1074 47.65% 23.83% 28.52%+0.20 -23.4 20
2012-06-17 Pyunik W 3-245.7 1270 1147 60.99% 22.83% 16.17%+0.55 +9.1 29
2012-06-17 @ Mika L 2-345.7 1147 1270 16.17% 22.83% 60.99%-0.55 -9.1 15
2012-06-20 Mika L 0-136.6 1086 1279 22.74% 23.53% 53.74%-0.35 -13.7 12
2012-06-20 @ Banants W 1-036.6 1279 1086 53.74% 23.53% 22.74%+0.35 +13.7 32
2012-06-20 Shirak L 1-347.5 1138 1097 52.66% 23.59% 23.74%+0.32 -44.3 15
2012-06-20 @ Pyunik W 3-147.5 1097 1138 23.74% 23.59% 52.66%-0.32 +44.3 26
2012-06-23 Mika L 2-351.5 1192 1293 33.94% 23.96% 42.10%-0.08 -16.9 20
2012-06-23 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 3-251.5 1293 1192 42.10% 23.96% 33.94%+0.08 +16.9 35
2012-06-23 Shirak L 0-238.9 1112 1141 43.86% 23.93% 32.20%+0.12 -43.7 23
2012-06-23 @ Impuls W 2-038.9 1141 1112 32.20% 23.93% 43.86%-0.12 +43.7 29
2012-06-24 Ararat W 6-025.4 1094 717 76.77% 18.61% 4.62%+1.27 +15.3 18
2012-06-24 @ Pyunik L 0-625.4 717 1094 4.62% 18.61% 76.77%-1.27 -15.3 3
2012-06-24 Ulisses L 2-351.3 1072 1169 34.39% 23.97% 41.64%-0.07 -17.1 12
2012-06-24 @ Banants W 3-251.3 1169 1072 41.64% 23.97% 34.39%+0.07 +17.1 16
2012-06-30 Impuls L 2-544.7 1055 1068 46.01% 23.88% 30.10%+0.17 -48.2 12
2012-06-30 @ Banants W 5-244.7 1068 1055 30.10% 23.88% 46.01%-0.17 +48.2 26
2012-06-30 Mika W 2-039.7 1185 1310 30.71% 23.90% 45.39%-0.15 +44.9 32
2012-06-30 @ Shirak L 0-239.7 1310 1185 45.39% 23.90% 30.71%+0.15 -44.9 35
2012-06-30 Ulisses W 3-143.5 1109 1186 37.14% 23.99% 38.88%-0.02 +34.3 21
2012-06-30 @ Pyunik L 1-343.5 1186 1109 38.88% 23.99% 37.14%+0.02 -34.3 16
2012-07-01 Ararat D 0-051.6 1175 702 80.57% 16.59% 2.84%+1.55 -10.9 21
2012-07-01 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 0-051.6 702 1175 2.84% 16.59% 80.57%-1.55 +10.9 4
2012-07-28 Mika W 2-150.6 1116 1265 27.77% 23.80% 48.42%-0.22 +23.7 29
2012-07-28 @ Impuls L 1-250.6 1265 1116 48.42% 23.80% 27.77%+0.22 -23.7 35
2012-07-29 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-239.6 1152 1164 46.11% 23.88% 30.01%+0.17 -45.5 16
2012-07-29 @ Ulisses W 2-039.6 1164 1152 30.01% 23.88% 46.11%-0.17 +45.5 24
2012-07-29 Pyunik L 0-332.4 1007 1143 29.22% 23.86% 46.92%-0.19 -46.1 12
2012-07-29 @ Banants W 3-032.4 1143 1007 46.92% 23.86% 29.22%+0.19 +46.1 24
2012-07-29 Shirak L 0-225.4 713 1230 4.67% 18.65% 76.68%-1.27 -5.6 4
2012-07-29 @ Ararat W 2-025.4 1230 713 76.68% 18.65% 4.67%+1.27 +5.6 35
2012-08-04 Impuls L 1-252.0 1189 1140 53.60% 23.53% 22.86%+0.34 -26.0 24
2012-08-04 @ Pyunik W 2-152.0 1140 1189 22.86% 23.53% 53.60%-0.34 +26.0 32
2012-08-04 Banants D 1-155.5 1210 961 70.30% 21.00% 8.70%+0.91 -7.8 25
2012-08-04 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 1-155.5 961 1210 8.70% 21.00% 70.30%-0.91 +7.8 13
2012-08-05 Ararat W 1-027.8 1241 707 82.59% 15.31% 2.10%+1.72 +1.2 38
2012-08-05 @ Mika L 0-127.8 707 1241 2.10% 15.31% 82.59%-1.72 -1.2 4
2012-08-05 Ulisses W 2-140.4 1235 1106 61.54% 22.76% 15.70%+0.57 +9.3 38
2012-08-05 @ Shirak L 1-240.4 1106 1235 15.70% 22.76% 61.54%-0.57 -9.4 16
2012-08-09 Gandzasar Kapan W 4-245.5 1163 1202 42.59% 23.96% 33.46%+0.09 +27.4 27
2012-08-09 @ Pyunik L 2-445.5 1202 1163 33.46% 23.96% 42.59%-0.09 -27.4 25
2012-08-10 Mika L 1-244.4 1097 1242 28.15% 23.82% 48.03%-0.21 -15.4 16
2012-08-10 @ Ulisses W 2-144.4 1242 1097 48.03% 23.82% 28.15%+0.21 +15.4 41
2012-08-12 Ararat L 1-257.8 1166 706 80.09% 16.87% 3.04%+1.51 -37.2 32
2012-08-12 @ Impuls W 2-157.8 706 1166 3.04% 16.87% 80.09%-1.51 +37.2 7
2012-08-18 Impuls W 3-030.6 1175 1129 53.22% 23.56% 23.22%+0.33 +38.2 28
2012-08-18 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-330.6 1129 1175 23.22% 23.56% 53.22%-0.33 -38.2 32
2012-08-18 Ulisses L 1-238.7 743 1082 11.33% 21.86% 66.81%-0.76 -6.9 7
2012-08-18 @ Ararat W 2-138.7 1082 743 66.81% 21.86% 11.33%+0.76 +6.9 19
2012-08-19 Pyunik W 2-142.7 1245 1191 54.13% 23.50% 22.37%+0.36 +12.8 41
2012-08-19 @ Shirak L 1-242.7 1191 1245 22.37% 23.50% 54.13%-0.36 -12.8 27
2012-08-19 Banants W 1-030.8 1258 969 72.57% 20.30% 7.14%+1.03 +4.6 44
2012-08-19 @ Mika L 0-130.8 969 1258 7.14% 20.30% 72.57%-1.03 -4.6 13
2012-08-25 Ararat D 1-155.3 964 737 68.95% 21.37% 9.69%+0.85 -7.4 14
2012-08-25 @ Banants D 1-155.3 737 964 9.69% 21.37% 68.95%-0.85 +7.4 8
2012-08-25 Ulisses W 2-034.1 1091 1089 47.99% 23.82% 28.19%+0.21 +30.8 35
2012-08-25 @ Impuls L 0-234.1 1089 1091 28.19% 23.82% 47.99%-0.21 -30.8 19
2012-08-26 Mika L 0-140.9 1178 1262 36.18% 23.98% 39.84%-0.04 -19.9 27
2012-08-26 @ Pyunik W 1-040.9 1262 1178 39.84% 23.98% 36.18%+0.04 +19.9 47
2012-08-26 Shirak D 1-154.9 1213 1258 41.79% 23.97% 34.24%+0.08 -0.8 29
2012-08-26 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 1-154.9 1258 1213 34.24% 23.97% 41.79%-0.08 +0.8 42
2012-09-01 Pyunik L 0-227.0 744 1158 7.78% 20.61% 71.60%-0.98 -9.5 8
2012-09-01 @ Ararat W 2-027.0 1158 744 71.60% 20.61% 7.78%+0.98 +9.5 30
2012-09-01 Banants D 2-260.9 1058 957 59.00% 23.07% 17.93%+0.49 -3.7 20
2012-09-01 @ Ulisses D 2-260.9 957 1058 17.93% 23.07% 59.00%-0.49 +3.7 15
2012-09-02 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-050.0 1282 1212 55.85% 23.37% 20.78%+0.40 -4.6 48
2012-09-02 @ Mika D 0-050.0 1212 1282 20.78% 23.37% 55.85%-0.40 +4.6 30
2012-09-02 Impuls D 1-155.1 1258 1122 62.22% 22.67% 15.11%+0.59 -5.7 43
2012-09-02 @ Shirak D 1-155.1 1122 1258 15.11% 22.67% 62.22%-0.59 +5.7 36
2012-09-15 Gandzasar Kapan W 3-152.9 734 1217 5.55% 19.34% 75.12%-1.17 +61.7 11
2012-09-15 @ Ararat L 1-352.9 1217 734 75.12% 19.34% 5.55%+1.17 -61.7 30
2012-09-15 Pyunik W 3-036.9 1054 1168 32.16% 23.93% 43.91%-0.12 +63.5 23
2012-09-15 @ Ulisses L 0-336.9 1168 1054 43.91% 23.93% 32.16%+0.12 -63.5 30
2012-09-15 Shirak W 3-139.9 1278 1253 50.78% 23.70% 25.52%+0.27 +24.6 51
2012-09-15 @ Mika L 1-339.9 1253 1278 25.52% 23.70% 50.78%-0.27 -24.6 43
2012-09-15 Banants D 2-261.2 1127 960 64.70% 22.27% 13.03%+0.68 -4.7 37
2012-09-15 @ Impuls D 2-261.2 960 1127 13.03% 22.27% 64.70%-0.68 +4.7 16
2012-09-19 Impuls D 2-261.5 1302 1123 65.64% 22.10% 12.27%+0.71 -4.9 52
2012-09-19 @ Mika D 2-261.5 1123 1302 12.27% 22.10% 65.64%-0.71 +4.9 38
2012-09-19 Ulisses L 0-145.4 1155 1118 52.27% 23.62% 24.11%+0.31 -26.9 30
2012-09-19 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 1-045.4 1118 1155 24.11% 23.62% 52.27%-0.31 +26.9 26
2012-09-22 Ararat W 3-240.0 1228 796 79.04% 17.46% 3.50%+1.43 +1.9 46
2012-09-22 @ Shirak L 2-340.0 796 1228 3.50% 17.46% 79.04%-1.43 -1.9 11
2012-09-22 Banants W 1-033.8 1104 965 62.44% 22.64% 14.93%+0.60 +9.5 33
2012-09-22 @ Pyunik L 0-133.8 965 1104 14.93% 22.64% 62.44%-0.60 -9.5 16
2012-09-29 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-049.5 955 1128 24.92% 23.67% 51.41%-0.29 +3.4 17
2012-09-29 @ Banants D 0-049.5 1128 955 51.41% 23.67% 24.92%+0.29 -3.4 31
2012-09-29 Pyunik L 2-450.1 1128 1114 49.45% 23.76% 26.79%+0.24 -37.4 38
2012-09-29 @ Impuls W 4-250.1 1114 1128 26.79% 23.76% 49.45%-0.24 +37.4 36
2012-09-30 Mika W 1-051.1 794 1297 5.00% 18.93% 76.07%-1.23 +38.2 14
2012-09-30 @ Ararat L 0-151.1 1297 794 76.07% 18.93% 5.00%+1.23 -38.2 52
2012-09-30 Shirak L 0-236.6 1144 1230 35.99% 23.98% 40.02%-0.04 -37.4 26
2012-09-30 @ Ulisses W 2-036.6 1230 1144 40.02% 23.98% 35.99%+0.04 +37.4 49
2012-10-05 Pyunik W 2-035.2 1125 1151 44.27% 23.93% 31.80%+0.13 +34.0 34
2012-10-05 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-235.2 1151 1125 31.80% 23.93% 44.27%-0.13 -34.0 36
2012-10-05 Banants W 2-136.7 1267 959 73.58% 19.94% 6.48%+1.08 +3.9 52
2012-10-05 @ Shirak L 1-236.7 959 1267 6.48% 19.94% 73.58%-1.08 -3.9 17
2012-10-07 Impuls W 1-047.5 832 1090 16.78% 22.92% 60.30%-0.53 +30.8 17
2012-10-07 @ Ararat L 0-147.5 1090 832 60.30% 22.92% 16.78%+0.53 -30.8 38
2012-10-07 Ulisses W 1-033.7 1259 1107 63.49% 22.47% 14.04%+0.64 +9.0 55
2012-10-07 @ Mika L 0-133.7 1107 1259 14.04% 22.47% 63.49%-0.64 -9.0 26
2012-10-27 Impuls W 2-143.0 1098 1059 52.43% 23.61% 23.96%+0.31 +13.5 29
2012-10-27 @ Ulisses L 1-243.0 1059 1098 23.96% 23.61% 52.43%-0.31 -13.5 38
2012-10-27 Banants W 1-042.0 863 955 35.12% 23.98% 40.90%-0.06 +21.9 20
2012-10-27 @ Ararat L 0-142.0 955 863 40.90% 23.98% 35.12%+0.06 -21.9 17
2012-10-28 Gandzasar Kapan W 2-030.7 1271 1159 60.07% 22.95% 16.99%+0.52 +20.1 55
2012-10-28 @ Shirak L 0-230.7 1159 1271 16.99% 22.95% 60.07%-0.52 -20.1 34
2012-10-28 Pyunik W 2-139.9 1268 1117 63.40% 22.49% 14.11%+0.63 +8.5 58
2012-10-28 @ Mika L 1-239.9 1117 1268 14.11% 22.49% 63.40%-0.63 -8.5 36
2012-11-03 Ararat W 1-032.0 1109 885 68.70% 21.43% 9.87%+0.84 +6.4 39
2012-11-03 @ Pyunik L 0-132.0 885 1109 9.87% 21.43% 68.70%-0.84 -6.4 20
2012-11-03 Shirak W 3-149.3 1046 1291 17.78% 23.05% 59.17%-0.50 +49.4 41
2012-11-03 @ Impuls L 1-349.3 1291 1046 59.17% 23.05% 17.78%+0.50 -49.4 55
2012-11-04 Mika W 3-255.3 1139 1277 29.04% 23.85% 47.11%-0.19 +22.0 37
2012-11-04 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 2-355.3 1277 1139 47.11% 23.85% 29.04%+0.19 -22.0 58
2012-11-04 Ulisses D 1-154.7 933 1112 24.27% 23.63% 52.10%-0.31 +3.2 18
2012-11-04 @ Banants D 1-154.7 1112 933 52.10% 23.63% 24.27%+0.31 -3.2 30
2012-11-07 Ararat D 0-050.2 1108 879 69.10% 21.33% 9.57%+0.86 -8.4 31
2012-11-07 @ Ulisses D 0-050.2 879 1108 9.57% 21.33% 69.10%-0.86 +8.3 21
2012-11-07 Pyunik W 1-036.7 1161 1115 53.19% 23.56% 23.25%+0.33 +14.0 40
2012-11-07 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-136.7 1115 1161 23.25% 23.56% 53.19%-0.33 -14.0 39
2012-11-07 Shirak D 1-155.1 936 1242 13.29% 22.33% 64.38%-0.67 +6.3 19
2012-11-07 @ Banants D 1-155.1 1242 936 64.38% 22.33% 13.29%+0.67 -6.3 56
2012-11-10 Impuls L 2-349.1 942 1095 27.24% 23.78% 48.98%-0.23 -14.2 19
2012-11-10 @ Banants W 3-249.1 1095 942 48.98% 23.78% 27.24%+0.23 +14.2 44
2012-11-11 Ararat W 2-026.7 1175 887 72.49% 20.33% 7.19%+1.02 +8.8 43
2012-11-11 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-226.7 887 1175 7.19% 20.33% 72.49%-1.02 -8.8 21
2012-11-11 Mika W 3-033.3 1236 1255 45.27% 23.90% 30.83%+0.15 +48.1 59
2012-11-11 @ Shirak L 0-333.3 1255 1236 30.83% 23.90% 45.27%-0.15 -48.1 58
2012-11-11 Ulisses W 3-140.2 1101 1100 47.84% 23.82% 28.33%+0.21 +26.8 42
2012-11-11 @ Pyunik L 1-340.2 1100 1101 28.33% 23.82% 47.84%-0.21 -26.8 31
2012-11-17 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-049.5 1073 1183 32.62% 23.94% 43.44%-0.11 +1.3 32
2012-11-17 @ Ulisses D 0-049.5 1183 1073 43.44% 23.94% 32.62%+0.11 -1.3 44
2012-11-17 Shirak L 0-131.3 878 1284 8.12% 20.77% 71.11%-0.95 -5.3 21
2012-11-17 @ Ararat W 1-031.3 1284 878 71.11% 20.77% 8.12%+0.95 +5.3 62
2012-11-18 Mika D 1-154.7 1109 1206 34.39% 23.97% 41.65%-0.07 +0.8 45
2012-11-18 @ Impuls D 1-154.7 1206 1109 41.65% 23.97% 34.39%+0.07 -0.8 59
2012-11-18 Pyunik W 2-041.8 928 1128 22.05% 23.47% 54.48%-0.37 +52.8 22
2012-11-18 @ Banants L 0-241.8 1128 928 54.48% 23.47% 22.05%+0.37 -52.8 42
2012-11-21 Gandzasar Kapan W 3-035.2 1110 1182 37.93% 23.99% 38.09%+0.00 +56.7 48
2012-11-21 @ Impuls L 0-335.2 1182 1110 38.09% 23.99% 37.93%+0.00 -56.7 44
2012-11-21 Mika D 1-154.8 981 1206 19.63% 23.26% 57.11%-0.44 +4.4 23
2012-11-21 @ Banants D 1-154.8 1206 981 57.11% 23.26% 19.63%+0.44 -4.4 60
2012-11-21 Shirak L 1-242.1 1075 1289 20.65% 23.36% 56.00%-0.41 -11.9 42
2012-11-21 @ Pyunik W 2-142.1 1289 1075 56.00% 23.36% 20.65%+0.41 +11.9 65
2012-11-24 Banants W 2-029.7 1125 985 62.49% 22.63% 14.88%+0.60 +17.8 47
2012-11-24 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-229.7 985 1125 14.88% 22.63% 62.49%-0.60 -17.8 23
2012-11-25 Ararat W 1-030.2 1201 873 74.57% 19.56% 5.87%+1.14 +3.8 63
2012-11-25 @ Mika L 0-130.2 873 1201 5.87% 19.56% 74.57%-1.14 -3.8 21
2012-11-25 Impuls W 3-253.8 1063 1167 33.49% 23.96% 42.55%-0.09 +20.2 45
2012-11-25 @ Pyunik L 2-353.8 1167 1063 42.55% 23.96% 33.49%+0.09 -20.2 48
2012-11-25 Ulisses W 2-028.0 1301 1075 68.88% 21.38% 9.74%+0.85 +11.9 68
2012-11-25 @ Shirak L 0-228.0 1075 1301 9.74% 21.38% 68.88%-0.85 -11.9 32
2012-12-01 Ararat L 0-150.3 1147 869 71.93% 20.51% 7.56%+0.99 -36.4 48
2012-12-01 @ Impuls W 1-050.3 869 1147 7.56% 20.51% 71.93%-0.99 +36.4 24
2012-12-01 Mika L 0-138.3 1063 1205 28.50% 23.83% 47.67%-0.20 -16.5 32
2012-12-01 @ Ulisses W 1-038.3 1205 1063 47.67% 23.83% 28.50%+0.20 +16.5 66
2012-12-02 Gandzasar Kapan D 1-154.6 1083 1143 39.66% 23.99% 36.35%+0.03 -0.3 46
2012-12-02 @ Pyunik D 1-154.6 1143 1083 36.35% 23.99% 39.66%-0.03 +0.4 48
2012-12-03 Shirak D 2-261.4 968 1313 10.95% 21.76% 67.30%-0.78 +5.2 24
2012-12-03 @ Banants D 2-261.4 1313 968 67.30% 21.76% 10.95%+0.78 -5.2 69
2013-03-09 Impuls W 2-143.2 1144 1110 51.78% 23.65% 24.57%+0.30 +13.8 51
2013-03-09 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 1-243.2 1110 1144 24.57% 23.65% 51.78%-0.30 -13.8 48
2013-03-09 Pyunik L 0-149.8 1308 1083 68.76% 21.41% 9.83%+0.84 -35.0 69
2013-03-09 @ Shirak W 1-049.8 1083 1308 9.83% 21.41% 68.76%-0.84 +35.0 49
2013-03-10 Ararat W 1-033.8 1046 906 62.54% 22.62% 14.84%+0.60 +9.4 35
2013-03-10 @ Ulisses L 0-133.8 906 1046 14.84% 22.62% 62.54%-0.60 -9.4 24
2013-03-10 Banants W 2-027.4 1221 973 70.27% 21.01% 8.72%+0.91 +10.7 69
2013-03-10 @ Mika L 0-227.4 973 1221 8.72% 21.01% 70.27%-0.91 -10.7 24
2013-03-16 Ararat D 0-049.6 962 896 55.43% 23.40% 21.17%+0.39 -4.5 25
2013-03-16 @ Banants D 0-049.6 896 962 21.17% 23.40% 55.43%-0.39 +4.5 25
2013-03-16 Ulisses W 2-032.7 1096 1056 52.65% 23.59% 23.75%+0.32 +26.8 51
2013-03-16 @ Impuls L 0-232.7 1056 1096 23.75% 23.59% 52.65%-0.32 -26.8 35
2013-03-17 Mika W 2-039.0 1118 1232 32.09% 23.93% 43.98%-0.12 +43.7 52
2013-03-17 @ Pyunik L 0-239.0 1232 1118 43.98% 23.93% 32.09%+0.12 -43.7 69
2013-03-17 Shirak D 0-049.7 1157 1273 31.92% 23.93% 44.15%-0.13 +1.5 52
2013-03-17 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 0-049.7 1273 1157 44.15% 23.93% 31.92%+0.13 -1.5 70
2013-03-30 Gandzasar Kapan L 1-251.3 1188 1159 51.34% 23.67% 24.99%+0.29 -25.0 69
2013-03-30 @ Mika W 2-151.3 1159 1188 24.99% 23.67% 51.34%-0.29 +25.0 55
2013-03-30 Impuls W 4-347.2 1271 1123 63.16% 22.53% 14.32%+0.62 +8.0 73
2013-03-30 @ Shirak L 3-447.2 1123 1271 14.32% 22.53% 63.16%-0.62 -8.0 51
2013-03-30 Pyunik L 1-336.4 901 1162 16.51% 22.88% 60.61%-0.54 -17.0 25
2013-03-30 @ Ararat W 3-136.4 1162 901 60.61% 22.88% 16.51%+0.54 +17.0 55
2013-04-06 Pyunik D 1-154.7 1029 1179 27.56% 23.79% 48.64%-0.22 +2.4 36
2013-04-06 @ Ulisses D 1-154.7 1179 1029 48.64% 23.79% 27.56%+0.22 -2.4 56
2013-04-06 Banants W 1-033.4 1115 958 63.94% 22.40% 13.66%+0.65 +8.7 54
2013-04-06 @ Impuls L 0-133.4 958 1115 13.66% 22.40% 63.94%-0.65 -8.7 25
2013-04-07 Gandzasar Kapan W 2-154.6 884 1184 13.67% 22.40% 63.93%-0.65 +30.7 28
2013-04-07 @ Ararat L 1-254.6 1184 884 63.93% 22.40% 13.67%+0.65 -30.7 55
2013-04-07 Shirak D 0-049.7 1163 1279 31.87% 23.93% 44.20%-0.13 +1.5 70
2013-04-07 @ Mika D 0-049.7 1279 1163 44.20% 23.93% 31.87%+0.13 -1.5 74
2013-04-13 Ararat W 3-131.7 1278 914 76.19% 18.87% 4.94%+1.24 +5.1 77
2013-04-13 @ Shirak L 1-331.7 914 1278 4.94% 18.87% 76.19%-1.24 -5.1 28
2013-04-13 Impuls W 1-036.9 1165 1124 52.66% 23.59% 23.74%+0.32 +14.2 73
2013-04-13 @ Mika L 0-136.9 1124 1165 23.74% 23.59% 52.66%-0.32 -14.2 54
2013-04-13 Ulisses W 1-034.3 1153 1031 60.92% 22.84% 16.24%+0.55 +10.2 58
2013-04-13 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-134.3 1031 1153 16.24% 22.84% 60.92%-0.55 -10.2 36
2013-04-13 Banants W 4-025.9 1176 949 68.95% 21.37% 9.68%+0.85 +22.5 59
2013-04-13 @ Pyunik L 0-425.9 949 1176 9.68% 21.37% 68.95%-0.85 -22.5 25
2013-04-20 Gandzasar Kapan D 1-154.8 926 1163 18.54% 23.14% 58.32%-0.47 +4.7 26
2013-04-20 @ Banants D 1-154.8 1163 926 58.32% 23.14% 18.54%+0.47 -4.7 59
2013-04-20 Pyunik W 1-042.0 1110 1199 35.49% 23.98% 40.53%-0.05 +21.7 57
2013-04-20 @ Impuls L 0-142.0 1199 1110 40.53% 23.98% 35.49%+0.05 -21.7 59
2013-04-21 Mika W 1-047.8 909 1179 15.83% 22.78% 61.39%-0.56 +31.3 31
2013-04-21 @ Ararat L 0-147.8 1179 909 61.39% 22.78% 15.83%+0.56 -31.3 73
2013-04-21 Shirak D 0-049.8 1021 1283 16.45% 22.87% 60.67%-0.54 +6.0 37
2013-04-21 @ Ulisses D 0-049.8 1283 1021 60.67% 22.87% 16.45%+0.54 -6.0 78
2013-04-27 Impuls L 1-242.7 941 1132 22.97% 23.54% 53.49%-0.34 -13.0 31
2013-04-27 @ Ararat W 2-142.7 1132 941 53.49% 23.54% 22.97%+0.34 +13.0 60
2013-04-27 Pyunik D 1-154.7 1159 1177 45.31% 23.90% 30.79%+0.15 -1.6 60
2013-04-27 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 1-154.7 1177 1159 30.79% 23.90% 45.31%-0.15 +1.6 60
2013-04-27 Ulisses W 2-030.2 1148 1027 60.83% 22.85% 16.32%+0.55 +19.4 76
2013-04-27 @ Mika L 0-230.2 1027 1148 16.32% 22.85% 60.83%-0.55 -19.4 37
2013-04-27 Banants W 2-025.9 1277 931 75.39% 19.22% 5.39%+1.19 +6.5 81
2013-04-27 @ Shirak L 0-225.9 931 1277 5.39% 19.22% 75.39%-1.19 -6.5 26
2013-05-03 Gandzasar Kapan L 1-249.8 1145 1157 46.12% 23.88% 30.00%+0.17 -22.8 60
2013-05-03 @ Impuls W 2-149.8 1157 1145 30.00% 23.88% 46.12%-0.17 +22.8 63
2013-05-03 Mika W 2-153.3 925 1167 18.05% 23.08% 58.87%-0.49 +28.4 29
2013-05-03 @ Banants L 1-253.3 1167 925 58.87% 23.08% 18.05%+0.49 -28.4 76
2013-05-03 Shirak L 0-140.1 1179 1283 33.37% 23.95% 42.68%-0.09 -18.7 60
2013-05-03 @ Pyunik W 1-040.1 1283 1179 42.68% 23.95% 33.37%+0.09 +18.7 84
2013-05-03 Ulisses D 0-049.4 928 1008 36.78% 23.99% 39.23%-0.02 +0.3 32
2013-05-03 @ Ararat D 0-049.4 1008 928 39.23% 23.99% 36.78%+0.02 -0.3 38
2013-05-05 Banants D 0-049.6 1007 953 54.15% 23.50% 22.35%+0.36 -4.1 39
2013-05-05 @ Ulisses D 0-049.6 953 1007 22.35% 23.50% 54.15%-0.36 +4.1 30
2013-05-12 Gandzasar Kapan D 2-261.4 1302 1180 60.95% 22.84% 16.21%+0.55 -4.0 85
2013-05-12 @ Shirak D 2-261.4 1180 1302 16.21% 22.84% 60.95%-0.55 +4.0 64
2013-05-12 Impuls W 4-142.1 1003 1122 31.48% 23.92% 44.60%-0.13 +54.2 42
2013-05-12 @ Ulisses L 1-442.1 1122 1003 44.60% 23.92% 31.48%+0.13 -54.2 60
2013-05-12 Pyunik W 1-039.2 1139 1160 44.95% 23.91% 31.14%+0.14 +17.7 79
2013-05-12 @ Mika L 0-139.2 1160 1139 31.14% 23.91% 44.95%-0.14 -17.7 60
2013-05-12 Banants D 1-154.6 928 957 43.88% 23.93% 32.19%+0.12 -1.3 33
2013-05-12 @ Ararat D 1-154.6 957 928 32.19% 23.93% 43.88%-0.12 +1.3 31
2013-05-18 Ararat W 2-028.0 1142 927 68.18% 21.56% 10.27%+0.82 +12.5 63
2013-05-18 @ Pyunik L 0-228.0 927 1142 10.27% 21.56% 68.18%-0.82 -12.5 33
2013-05-18 Mika W 1-037.4 1184 1157 51.07% 23.68% 25.25%+0.28 +15.0 67
2013-05-18 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-137.4 1157 1184 25.25% 23.68% 51.07%-0.28 -15.0 79
2013-05-18 Shirak L 0-231.3 1068 1298 19.11% 23.20% 57.68%-0.45 -22.3 60
2013-05-18 @ Impuls W 2-031.3 1298 1068 57.68% 23.20% 19.11%+0.45 +22.3 88
2013-05-18 Ulisses L 0-235.9 959 1057 34.14% 23.97% 41.89%-0.08 -35.9 31
2013-05-18 @ Banants W 2-035.9 1057 959 41.89% 23.97% 34.14%+0.08 +35.9 45

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2012-08-12 3.04% Ararat 706 2 @ Impuls 1166 1
2 2012-09-30 5.00% @ Ararat 794 1 Mika 1297 0
3 2012-09-15 5.55% @ Ararat 734 3 Gandzasar Kapan 1217 1
4 2012-12-01 7.56% Ararat 869 1 @ Impuls 1147 0
5 2012-05-09 8.63% Shirak 1003 2 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1254 1
6 2012-04-22 8.96% @ Ararat 755 2 Ulisses 1141 1
7 2013-03-09 9.83% Pyunik 1083 1 @ Shirak 1308 0
8 2012-05-20 13.55% Ulisses 1068 1 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1227 0
9 2013-04-07 13.67% @ Ararat 884 2 Gandzasar Kapan 1184 1
10 2013-04-21 15.83% @ Ararat 909 1 Mika 1179 0
11 2012-10-07 16.78% @ Ararat 832 1 Impuls 1090 0
12 2012-04-21 16.83% Impuls 1115 1 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1230 0
13 2012-11-03 17.78% @ Impuls 1046 3 Shirak 1291 1
14 2013-05-03 18.05% @ Banants 925 2 Mika 1167 1
15 2012-04-07 18.81% Impuls 1059 3 @ Pyunik 1150 1
16 2012-05-16 19.01% Impuls 1119 2 @ Banants 1208 1
17 2012-05-05 19.68% Gandzasar Kapan 1199 2 @ Mika 1281 0
18 2012-04-07 20.08% @ Shirak 968 1 Ulisses 1188 0
19 2012-11-18 22.05% @ Banants 928 2 Pyunik 1128 0
20 2012-08-04 22.86% Impuls 1140 2 @ Pyunik 1189 1
21 2012-05-05 23.33% @ Shirak 959 3 Impuls 1146 1
22 2012-06-20 23.74% Shirak 1097 3 @ Pyunik 1138 1
23 2012-09-19 24.11% Ulisses 1118 1 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1155 0
24 2013-03-30 24.99% Gandzasar Kapan 1159 2 @ Mika 1188 1
25 2012-09-29 26.79% Pyunik 1114 4 @ Impuls 1128 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-06-16 81.07 @ Ulisses 4 1088 33.32% Impuls 0 1193 42.73% 23.95%
2 2012-05-20 68.10 @ Pyunik 4 1136 41.89% Banants 0 1180 34.14% 23.97%
3 2012-04-07 63.49 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1148 32.12% Banants 0 1262 43.95% 23.93%
4 2012-09-15 63.45 @ Ulisses 3 1054 32.16% Pyunik 0 1168 43.91% 23.93%
5 2012-09-15 61.71 @ Ararat 3 734 5.55% Gandzasar Kapan 1 1217 75.12% 19.34%
6 2012-05-24 57.22 @ Impuls 3 1129 37.46% Pyunik 0 1204 38.55% 23.99%
7 2012-11-21 56.69 @ Impuls 3 1110 37.93% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1182 38.09% 23.99%
8 2012-05-05 55.09 Gandzasar Kapan 2 1199 19.68% @ Mika 0 1281 57.06% 23.26%
9 2013-05-12 54.20 @ Ulisses 4 1003 31.48% Impuls 1 1122 44.60% 23.92%
10 2012-11-18 52.75 @ Banants 2 928 22.05% Pyunik 0 1128 54.48% 23.47%
11 2012-11-03 49.39 @ Impuls 3 1046 17.78% Shirak 1 1291 59.17% 23.05%
12 2012-04-07 48.47 Impuls 3 1059 18.81% @ Pyunik 1 1150 58.02% 23.17%
13 2012-06-30 48.19 Impuls 5 1068 30.10% @ Banants 2 1055 46.01% 23.88%
14 2012-11-11 48.12 @ Shirak 3 1236 45.27% Mika 0 1255 30.83% 23.90%
15 2012-07-29 46.12 Pyunik 3 1143 46.92% @ Banants 0 1007 29.22% 23.86%
16 2012-07-29 45.51 Gandzasar Kapan 2 1164 30.01% @ Ulisses 0 1152 46.11% 23.88%
17 2012-06-30 44.90 @ Shirak 2 1185 30.71% Mika 0 1310 45.39% 23.90%
18 2012-05-05 44.63 @ Shirak 3 959 23.33% Impuls 1 1146 53.11% 23.57%
19 2012-06-20 44.29 Shirak 3 1097 23.74% @ Pyunik 1 1138 52.66% 23.59%
20 2013-03-17 43.74 @ Pyunik 2 1118 32.09% Mika 0 1232 43.98% 23.93%
21 2012-06-23 43.65 Shirak 2 1141 32.20% @ Impuls 0 1112 43.86% 23.93%
22 2012-08-18 38.21 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1175 53.22% Impuls 0 1129 23.22% 23.56%
23 2012-09-30 38.16 @ Ararat 1 794 5.00% Mika 0 1297 76.07% 18.93%
24 2012-09-29 37.44 Pyunik 4 1114 26.79% @ Impuls 2 1128 49.45% 23.76%
25 2012-09-30 37.38 Shirak 2 1230 40.02% @ Ulisses 0 1144 35.99% 23.98%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-09-19 61.5 @ Mika 2 1302 65.64% Impuls 2 1123 12.27% 22.10%
2 2012-12-03 61.4 @ Banants 2 968 10.95% Shirak 2 1313 67.30% 21.76%
3 2013-05-12 61.4 @ Shirak 2 1302 60.95% Gandzasar Kapan 2 1180 16.21% 22.84%
4 2012-09-15 61.2 @ Impuls 2 1127 64.70% Banants 2 960 13.03% 22.27%
5 2012-09-01 60.9 @ Ulisses 2 1058 59.00% Banants 2 957 17.93% 23.07%
6 2012-08-12 57.8 Ararat 2 706 3.04% @ Impuls 1 1166 80.09% 16.87%
7 2012-05-09 56.2 Shirak 2 1003 8.63% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1254 70.40% 20.98%
8 2012-04-22 56.0 @ Ararat 2 755 8.96% Ulisses 1 1141 69.93% 21.11%
9 2012-08-04 55.5 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1210 70.30% Banants 1 961 8.70% 21.00%
10 2012-08-25 55.3 @ Banants 1 964 68.95% Ararat 1 737 9.69% 21.37%
11 2012-11-04 55.3 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1139 29.04% Mika 2 1277 47.11% 23.85%
12 2012-03-31 55.1 @ Banants 1 1267 60.98% Pyunik 1 1145 16.18% 22.83%
13 2012-09-02 55.1 @ Shirak 1 1258 62.22% Impuls 1 1122 15.11% 22.67%
14 2012-11-07 55.1 @ Banants 1 936 13.29% Shirak 1 1242 64.38% 22.33%
15 2012-08-26 54.9 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1213 41.79% Shirak 1 1258 34.24% 23.97%
16 2012-05-16 54.8 @ Shirak 1 1030 21.74% Mika 1 1233 54.81% 23.45%
17 2012-06-09 54.8 @ Impuls 1 1195 45.18% Gandzasar Kapan 1 1214 30.92% 23.90%
18 2012-11-21 54.8 @ Banants 1 981 19.63% Mika 1 1206 57.11% 23.26%
19 2013-04-20 54.8 @ Banants 1 926 18.54% Gandzasar Kapan 1 1163 58.32% 23.14%
20 2012-05-12 54.7 @ Impuls 1 1118 35.35% Banants 1 1208 40.67% 23.98%
21 2012-05-27 54.7 @ Ulisses 1 1100 53.43% Shirak 1 1053 23.02% 23.55%
22 2012-11-04 54.7 @ Banants 1 933 24.27% Ulisses 1 1112 52.10% 23.63%
23 2012-11-18 54.7 @ Impuls 1 1109 34.39% Mika 1 1206 41.65% 23.97%
24 2013-04-06 54.7 @ Ulisses 1 1029 27.56% Pyunik 1 1179 48.64% 23.79%
25 2013-04-27 54.7 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1159 45.31% Pyunik 1 1177 30.79% 23.90%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-04-07 22.2 @ Mika 3 1249 80.87% Ararat 0 767 2.73% 16.41%
2 2012-05-27 23.8 Mika 3 1247 75.70% @ Ararat 0 752 5.21% 19.09%
3 2012-04-28 24.9 @ Banants 2 1205 78.45% Ararat 0 788 3.78% 17.77%
4 2012-05-20 25.3 @ Shirak 4 1034 71.13% Ararat 0 771 8.11% 20.76%
5 2012-06-24 25.4 @ Pyunik 6 1094 76.77% Ararat 0 717 4.62% 18.61%
6 2012-07-29 25.4 Shirak 2 1230 76.68% @ Ararat 0 713 4.67% 18.65%
7 2013-04-13 25.9 @ Pyunik 4 1176 68.95% Banants 0 949 9.68% 21.37%
8 2013-04-27 25.9 @ Shirak 2 1277 75.39% Banants 0 931 5.39% 19.22%
9 2012-04-16 26.4 @ Banants 3 1198 67.21% Shirak 0 997 11.01% 21.77%
10 2012-06-02 26.5 Impuls 2 1186 73.21% @ Ararat 0 743 6.72% 20.07%
11 2012-11-11 26.7 @ Gandzasar Kapan 2 1175 72.49% Ararat 0 887 7.19% 20.33%
12 2012-09-01 27.0 Pyunik 2 1158 71.60% @ Ararat 0 744 7.78% 20.61%
13 2013-03-10 27.4 @ Mika 2 1221 70.27% Banants 0 973 8.72% 21.01%
14 2012-08-05 27.8 @ Mika 1 1241 82.59% Ararat 0 707 2.10% 15.31%
15 2012-11-25 28.0 @ Shirak 2 1301 68.88% Ulisses 0 1075 9.74% 21.38%
16 2013-05-18 28.0 @ Pyunik 2 1142 68.18% Ararat 0 927 10.27% 21.56%
17 2012-05-16 28.6 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1225 79.81% Ararat 0 772 3.16% 17.03%
18 2012-04-14 28.9 @ Impuls 4 1107 75.35% Ararat 1 763 5.41% 19.24%
19 2012-11-24 29.7 @ Gandzasar Kapan 2 1125 62.49% Banants 0 985 14.88% 22.63%
20 2012-11-25 30.2 @ Mika 1 1201 74.57% Ararat 0 873 5.87% 19.56%
21 2013-04-27 30.2 @ Mika 2 1148 60.83% Ulisses 0 1027 16.32% 22.85%
22 2012-05-13 30.6 Gandzasar Kapan 1 1221 73.20% @ Ararat 0 777 6.72% 20.08%
23 2012-08-18 30.6 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1175 53.22% Impuls 0 1129 23.22% 23.56%
24 2012-10-28 30.7 @ Shirak 2 1271 60.07% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1159 16.99% 22.95%
25 2012-08-19 30.8 @ Mika 1 1258 72.57% Banants 0 969 7.14% 20.30%