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2020-21 Armenian Premier League Season

108 games

Final

Champion

Alashkert

46 points · 3rd Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Urartu

8.16 points above expected

41 points · 32.84 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Shirak

12.33 points below expected

13 points · 25.33 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Alashkert Champion 24 13 7 4 46 22 15 +7 39.32 +6.68
2 Noah 24 12 5 7 41 32 20 +12 40.70 +0.30
3 Urartu 24 12 5 7 41 25 19 +6 32.84 +8.16
4 Ararat 24 11 7 6 40 31 18 +13 36.05 +3.95
5 Ararat-Armenia 24 10 8 6 38 29 17 +12 43.01 -5.01
6 Van 24 9 4 11 31 22 30 -8 27.84 +3.16
7 Pyunik 24 6 7 11 25 17 18 -1 31.11 -6.11
8 Lori 24 7 2 15 23 16 20 -4 20.96 +2.04
9 Shirak 24 2 7 15 13 16 53 -37 25.33 -12.33

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Urartu 41 32.84 +8.16
2 Alashkert 46 39.32 +6.68
3 Ararat 40 36.05 +3.95
4 Van 31 27.84 +3.16
5 Lori 23 20.96 +2.04

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shirak 13 25.33 -12.33
2 Pyunik 25 31.11 -6.11
3 Ararat-Armenia 38 43.01 -5.01
4 Noah 41 40.70 +0.30
5 Lori 23 20.96 +2.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Van 3 May 19 – May 30 1 in 88
2 Urartu 3 May 19 – May 28 1 in 31
3 Alashkert 4 Nov 26 – Feb 28 1 in 24
4 Ararat 3 Dec 10 – Feb 25 1 in 21
5 Noah 3 Sep 11 – Oct 30 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lori 10 Mar 8 – May 30 1 in 7,049
2 Shirak 5 Oct 30 – Dec 8 1 in 37
3 Van 4 Sep 24 – Nov 4 1 in 26
4 Noah 2 May 19 – May 28 1 in 23
5 Ararat-Armenia 2 Feb 25 – Mar 2 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ararat 10 Oct 31 – Mar 16 1 in 83
2 Shirak 3 Mar 7 – Apr 11 1 in 18
3 Ararat-Armenia 8 Oct 17 – Feb 21 1 in 10
4 Noah 7 Apr 9 – May 15 1 in 10
5 Alashkert 8 Nov 26 – Apr 14 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pyunik 11 Aug 16 – Feb 21 1 in 75
2 Lori 10 Mar 8 – May 30 1 in 44
3 Shirak 9 Aug 16 – Dec 8 1 in 20
4 Alashkert 3 Mar 5 – Apr 11 1 in 14
5 Noah 5 Nov 2 – Dec 1 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Alashkert 1398 43 +6 10 7.2 +2.8
Urartu 1353 38 +36 12 6.5 +5.5
Noah 1395 38 -7 7 8.9 -1.9
Ararat 1356 37 -17 5 7.4 -2.4
Ararat-Armenia 1398 35 -14 5 8.1 -3.1
Van 1262 28 +35 10 5.0 +5.0
Lori 1290 23 -23 3 5.3 -2.3
Pyunik 1290 22 +0 4 5.8 -1.8
Shirak 1142 10 -40 1 4.0 -3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ALA ARA ARA LOR NOA PYU SHI URA VAN
Alashkert —
1-1-1
4.45
2-1-0
3.87
3-0-0
5.01
2-0-1
3.94
1-2-0
5.43
0-3-0
5.90
2-0-1
4.62
2-0-1
5.35
Ararat
1-1-1
3.73
 —
1-2-0
3.22
2-0-1
4.76
0-1-2
3.66
2-1-0
4.39
3-0-0
4.83
1-0-2
4.52
1-2-0
5.41
Ararat-Armenia
0-1-2
4.31
0-2-1
4.97
 —
2-0-1
5.28
1-2-0
4.31
2-1-0
5.77
2-1-0
5.87
1-1-1
5.18
2-0-1
5.84
Lori
0-0-3
3.18
1-0-2
3.43
1-0-2
2.93
 —
1-0-2
3.01
1-1-1
4.32
2-0-1
5.28
0-1-2
3.87
1-0-2
4.35
Noah
1-0-2
4.24
2-1-0
4.53
0-2-1
3.86
2-0-1
5.20
 —
2-0-1
5.54
2-1-0
5.48
1-1-1
4.67
2-0-1
5.62
Pyunik
0-2-1
2.79
0-1-2
3.79
0-1-2
2.48
1-1-1
3.86
1-0-2
2.68
 —
2-0-1
4.97
1-1-1
3.60
1-1-1
4.19
Shirak
0-3-0
2.37
0-0-3
3.39
0-1-2
2.40
1-0-2
2.93
0-1-2
2.76
1-0-2
3.23
 —
0-1-2
2.70
0-1-2
3.61
Urartu
1-0-2
3.56
2-0-1
3.65
1-1-1
3.02
2-1-0
4.31
1-1-1
3.51
1-1-1
4.58
2-1-0
5.52
 —
2-0-1
4.99
Van
1-0-2
2.87
0-2-1
2.81
1-0-2
2.42
2-0-1
3.82
1-0-2
2.61
1-1-1
3.98
2-1-0
4.57
1-0-2
3.20
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.59 +13.1
Allowed 0.56 -6.8
Differential 0.76 +6.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.96%13.43%2.78%4.17%0.93%0.46%34.72%
113.43%9.26%7.87%2.31%—0.46%33.33%
22.78%7.87%1.85%1.39%—0.46%14.35%
34.17%2.31%1.39%———7.87%
40.93%—————0.93%
5+0.46%0.46%0.46%——7.41%8.80%
Total34.72%33.33%14.35%7.87%0.93%8.80%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.90 0.90 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.61
CV 1.36 1.36 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 108

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.83%4.17%————25.00%
129.17%8.33%8.33%4.17%——50.00%
2—20.83%————20.83%
3———————
4———————
5+—————4.17%4.17%
Total50.00%33.33%8.33%4.17%—4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 0.58 +0.29
SD 0.80 0.88 0.86
CV 0.91 1.51 —
Max 2 3 +1
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%4.17%———29.17%
112.50%16.67%4.17%———33.33%
24.17%8.33%—4.17%——16.67%
38.33%—————8.33%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+——4.17%——4.17%8.33%
Total41.67%37.50%12.50%4.17%—4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 0.71 +0.54
SD 1.42 0.91 1.53
CV 1.14 1.28 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%12.50%————37.50%
112.50%4.17%8.33%———25.00%
2—12.50%4.17%4.17%——20.83%
34.17%4.17%————8.33%
4———————
5+4.17%————4.17%8.33%
Total45.83%33.33%12.50%4.17%—4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.67 +0.50
SD 1.63 0.92 1.72
CV 1.40 1.38 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min -1 -1 -1

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%—8.33%——20.83%
112.50%8.33%4.17%4.17%——29.17%
24.17%8.33%————12.50%
3——4.17%———4.17%
4———————
5+—————33.33%33.33%
Total16.67%29.17%8.33%12.50%—33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.33 0.50 -0.17
SD 1.20 1.38 1.24
CV 3.61 2.77 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%12.50%4.17%———25.00%
116.67%8.33%8.33%4.17%——37.50%
2—4.17%4.17%———8.33%
312.50%4.17%4.17%———20.83%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+—————4.17%4.17%
Total41.67%29.17%20.83%4.17%—4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 0.79 +0.50
SD 1.30 0.98 1.62
CV 1.01 1.23 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%33.33%4.17%———54.17%
18.33%12.50%8.33%———29.17%
24.17%—————4.17%
34.17%—————4.17%
4———————
5+—4.17%———4.17%8.33%
Total33.33%50.00%12.50%——4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 0.71 -0.04
SD 1.24 0.75 1.40
CV 1.86 1.06 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%8.33%4.17%16.67%4.17%4.17%50.00%
1—8.33%8.33%4.17%—4.17%25.00%
24.17%—8.33%4.17%—4.17%20.83%
3———————
4———————
5+—————4.17%4.17%
Total16.67%16.67%20.83%25.00%4.17%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.62 2.17 -1.54
SD 0.88 1.88 1.93
CV 1.40 0.87 —
Max 2 7 +2
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%4.17%4.17%——25.00%
120.83%12.50%8.33%4.17%——45.83%
28.33%8.33%————16.67%
38.33%—————8.33%
4———————
5+—————4.17%4.17%
Total45.83%29.17%12.50%8.33%—4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.75 +0.25
SD 0.98 1.03 1.51
CV 0.98 1.38 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%16.67%4.17%8.33%4.17%—45.83%
18.33%4.17%12.50%———25.00%
2—8.33%————8.33%
3—12.50%4.17%———16.67%
4———————
5+—————4.17%4.17%
Total20.83%41.67%20.83%8.33%4.17%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.21 -0.33
SD 1.19 1.14 1.61
CV 1.36 0.94 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Alashkert 1398 46 39.32 +6.68 85.0% 25 29 35 39 43 50 53
Ararat-Armenia 1398 38 43.01 -5.01 20.0% 27 33 39 43 47 51 61
Noah 1395 41 40.70 +0.30 54.0% 25 31 36 40 45 52 55
Ararat 1356 40 36.05 +3.95 76.0% 23 26 31 35 40 47 49
Urartu 1353 41 32.84 +8.16 92.0% 19 24 28 32 38 43 47
Pyunik 1290 25 31.11 -6.11 19.0% 14 21 27 31 36 41 50
Lori 1290 23 20.96 +2.04 71.0% 11 12 18 21 24 29 32
Van 1262 31 27.84 +3.16 67.0% 12 18 23 28 32 37 42
Shirak 1142 13 25.33 -12.33 1.0% 12 18 21 25 29 34 38

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+1.85%
No Edge
38.89%24.07%37.04%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 6.43 Elo pts.
199 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.17 goals
Neutral
-2+0.03+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.6
Open
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
19%
Alashkert, 3rd of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.21/gm
Comfortable
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.8 * Some Luck: 4.8 to 7.2 * Lucky: 7.2 to 9.6 * Wild Swing: 9.6 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.02 * Close: 1.02 to 1.54 * Off: 1.54 to 2.05 * Way Off: 2.05 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.28 points
Some Luck
06.0015
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Close
01.283
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
92.00%
Urartu
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
Shirak
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Balanced
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 84.55
1.67
Coin-Flip Parity
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
65%
Even
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
81%
Even
50%83%100%
Close Games
Expected
77%
Very Frequent
0%65%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%12%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.26
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.23
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.35
Weak Carryover
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.93
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.12
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.054
Well Within Noise
00.1610.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Alashkert19.00%25.00%19.00%14.00%11.00%9.00%3.00%——
Noah24.00%24.00%19.00%17.00%8.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%—
Urartu5.00%2.00%17.00%15.00%15.00%21.00%15.00%9.00%1.00%
Ararat9.00%17.00%15.00%21.00%15.00%16.00%6.00%1.00%—
Ararat-Armenia42.00%25.00%17.00%10.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%——
Van—2.00%5.00%6.00%14.00%18.00%16.00%22.00%17.00%
Pyunik1.00%5.00%8.00%12.00%22.00%16.00%18.00%13.00%5.00%
Lori———1.00%3.00%2.00%14.00%28.00%52.00%
Shirak———4.00%9.00%11.00%25.00%26.00%25.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Alashkert 100% —
Ararat 100% —
Ararat-Armenia 100% —
Noah 100% —
Urartu 99.00% 1.00%
Pyunik 95.00% 5.00%
Van 83.00% 17.00%
Shirak 75.00% 25.00%
Lori 48.00% 52.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2020-08-14 Ararat-Armenia D 0-050.3 1365 1367 37.45% 27.56% 34.99%+0.02 -0.1 1
2020-08-14 @ Alashkert D 0-050.3 1367 1365 34.99% 27.56% 37.45%-0.02 +0.1 1
2020-08-16 Pyunik W 1-043.0 1278 1294 35.45% 27.57% 36.99%-0.05 +8.8 3
2020-08-16 @ Ararat L 0-143.0 1294 1278 36.99% 27.57% 35.45%+0.05 -8.8 0
2020-08-16 Shirak D 2-261.2 1361 1330 42.06% 27.37% 30.56%+0.19 -0.4 1
2020-08-16 @ Noah D 2-261.2 1330 1361 30.56% 27.37% 42.06%-0.19 +0.4 1
2020-08-17 Lori W 3-037.7 1309 1305 38.19% 27.55% 34.26%+0.05 +22.7 3
2020-08-17 @ Urartu L 0-337.7 1305 1309 34.26% 27.55% 38.19%-0.05 -22.7 0
2020-08-21 Noah W 1-043.6 1365 1361 38.27% 27.55% 34.18%+0.05 +8.3 4
2020-08-21 @ Alashkert L 0-143.6 1361 1365 34.18% 27.55% 38.27%-0.05 -8.3 1
2020-08-23 Urartu D 0-049.0 1285 1331 31.29% 27.42% 41.28%-0.20 +0.5 1
2020-08-23 @ Pyunik D 0-049.0 1331 1285 41.28% 27.42% 31.29%+0.20 -0.5 4
2020-08-29 Pyunik W 1-042.7 1275 1285 36.30% 27.57% 36.13%-0.02 +8.6 3
2020-08-29 @ Van L 0-142.7 1285 1275 36.13% 27.57% 36.30%+0.02 -8.6 1
2020-09-11 Ararat W 2-146.3 1352 1287 46.73% 26.91% 26.36%+0.36 +6.4 4
2020-09-11 @ Noah L 1-246.3 1287 1352 26.36% 26.91% 46.73%-0.36 -6.4 3
2020-09-11 Lori L 1-253.2 1367 1283 49.08% 26.56% 24.35%+0.46 -10.3 1
2020-09-11 @ Ararat-Armenia W 2-153.2 1283 1367 24.35% 26.56% 49.08%-0.46 +10.3 3
2020-09-13 Urartu L 1-252.3 1373 1331 43.58% 27.25% 29.17%+0.24 -9.4 4
2020-09-13 @ Alashkert W 2-152.3 1331 1373 29.17% 27.25% 43.58%-0.24 +9.4 7
2020-09-15 Van L 0-143.6 1293 1284 38.97% 27.53% 33.51%+0.08 -9.1 3
2020-09-15 @ Lori W 1-043.6 1284 1293 33.51% 27.53% 38.97%-0.08 +9.1 6
2020-09-22 Noah L 0-338.8 1340 1359 35.06% 27.56% 37.38%-0.06 -23.1 7
2020-09-22 @ Urartu W 3-038.8 1359 1340 37.38% 27.56% 35.06%+0.06 +23.1 7
2020-09-23 Pyunik W 1-042.0 1284 1277 38.71% 27.54% 33.76%+0.07 +8.2 6
2020-09-23 @ Lori L 0-142.0 1277 1284 33.76% 27.54% 38.71%-0.07 -8.2 1
2020-09-24 Alashkert L 0-140.9 1293 1364 28.30% 27.16% 44.54%-0.32 -7.2 6
2020-09-24 @ Van W 1-040.9 1364 1293 44.54% 27.16% 28.30%+0.32 +7.2 7
2020-09-26 Ararat L 0-340.7 1331 1280 44.69% 27.15% 28.16%+0.29 -27.8 1
2020-09-26 @ Shirak W 3-040.7 1280 1331 28.16% 27.15% 44.69%-0.29 +27.8 6
2020-10-17 Shirak W 7-037.3 1356 1303 45.13% 27.10% 27.77%+0.30 +42.8 4
2020-10-17 @ Ararat-Armenia L 0-737.3 1303 1356 27.77% 27.10% 45.13%-0.30 -42.8 1
2020-10-18 Pyunik D 0-049.6 1371 1269 51.30% 26.16% 22.54%+0.55 -1.6 8
2020-10-18 @ Alashkert D 0-049.6 1269 1371 22.54% 26.16% 51.30%-0.55 +1.6 2
2020-10-19 Van W 2-038.1 1317 1286 42.07% 27.37% 30.56%+0.19 +14.4 10
2020-10-19 @ Urartu L 0-238.1 1286 1317 30.56% 27.37% 42.07%-0.19 -14.4 6
2020-10-25 Ararat-Armenia L 0-138.9 1272 1399 22.11% 26.05% 51.84%-0.61 -5.8 6
2020-10-25 @ Van W 1-038.9 1399 1272 51.84% 26.05% 22.11%+0.61 +5.8 7
2020-10-26 Alashkert D 1-155.0 1260 1369 23.95% 26.48% 49.58%-0.52 +1.2 2
2020-10-26 @ Shirak D 1-155.0 1369 1260 49.58% 26.48% 23.95%+0.52 -1.2 9
2020-10-26 Ararat W 1-043.2 1292 1308 35.43% 27.57% 37.01%-0.05 +8.8 9
2020-10-26 @ Lori L 0-143.2 1308 1292 37.01% 27.57% 35.43%+0.05 -8.8 6
2020-10-29 Urartu D 1-154.7 1301 1331 33.39% 27.52% 39.09%-0.12 +0.3 10
2020-10-29 @ Lori D 1-154.7 1331 1301 39.09% 27.52% 33.39%+0.12 -0.2 11
2020-10-30 Noah L 0-334.1 1261 1382 22.77% 26.22% 51.01%-0.58 -16.4 2
2020-10-30 @ Shirak W 3-034.1 1382 1261 51.01% 26.22% 22.77%+0.58 +16.4 10
2020-10-31 Ararat D 1-154.3 1270 1299 33.61% 27.53% 38.86%-0.11 +0.2 3
2020-10-31 @ Pyunik D 1-154.3 1299 1270 38.86% 27.53% 33.61%+0.11 -0.2 7
2020-11-02 Alashkert L 1-252.9 1398 1368 42.00% 27.38% 30.62%+0.19 -9.1 10
2020-11-02 @ Noah W 2-152.9 1368 1398 30.62% 27.38% 42.00%-0.19 +9.1 12
2020-11-03 Shirak W 4-035.0 1299 1245 45.20% 27.09% 27.70%+0.31 +25.2 10
2020-11-03 @ Ararat L 0-435.0 1245 1299 27.70% 27.09% 45.20%-0.31 -25.2 2
2020-11-04 Lori L 1-247.9 1266 1301 32.78% 27.50% 39.72%-0.14 -7.6 6
2020-11-04 @ Van W 2-147.9 1301 1266 39.72% 27.50% 32.78%+0.14 +7.6 13
2020-11-08 Ararat-Armenia D 0-051.4 1389 1405 35.45% 27.57% 36.98%-0.05 +0.1 11
2020-11-08 @ Noah D 0-051.4 1405 1389 36.98% 27.57% 35.45%+0.05 -0.1 8
2020-11-21 Ararat L 1-252.7 1377 1324 45.01% 27.11% 27.87%+0.30 -9.6 12
2020-11-21 @ Alashkert W 2-152.7 1324 1377 27.87% 27.11% 45.01%-0.30 +9.6 13
2020-11-21 Van D 0-048.5 1270 1258 39.44% 27.51% 33.05%+0.09 -0.3 4
2020-11-21 @ Pyunik D 0-048.5 1258 1270 33.05% 27.51% 39.44%-0.09 +0.3 7
2020-11-22 Urartu L 0-333.8 1220 1331 23.69% 26.43% 49.88%-0.53 -17.0 2
2020-11-22 @ Shirak W 3-033.8 1331 1220 49.88% 26.43% 23.69%+0.53 +17.0 14
2020-11-23 Noah W 3-147.1 1405 1389 39.94% 27.49% 32.57%+0.11 +13.0 11
2020-11-23 @ Ararat-Armenia L 1-347.1 1389 1405 32.57% 27.49% 39.94%-0.11 -13.1 11
2020-11-26 Alashkert L 1-250.0 1348 1367 34.98% 27.56% 37.46%-0.06 -8.0 14
2020-11-26 @ Urartu W 2-150.0 1367 1348 37.46% 27.56% 34.98%+0.06 +7.9 15
2020-11-26 Shirak W 3-142.2 1259 1203 45.45% 27.07% 27.48%+0.31 +11.5 10
2020-11-26 @ Van L 1-342.2 1203 1259 27.48% 27.07% 45.45%-0.31 -11.5 2
2020-11-27 Noah D 1-155.6 1334 1376 31.81% 27.45% 40.74%-0.18 +0.4 14
2020-11-27 @ Ararat D 1-155.6 1376 1334 40.74% 27.45% 31.81%+0.18 -0.4 12
2020-11-28 Ararat-Armenia L 0-140.3 1309 1418 23.91% 26.47% 49.62%-0.52 -6.2 13
2020-11-28 @ Lori W 1-040.3 1418 1309 49.62% 26.47% 23.91%+0.52 +6.2 14
2020-11-30 Van W 2-144.9 1375 1270 51.68% 26.08% 22.23%+0.56 +5.5 18
2020-11-30 @ Alashkert L 1-244.9 1270 1375 22.23% 26.08% 51.68%-0.56 -5.5 10
2020-12-01 Urartu D 1-155.7 1376 1340 42.71% 27.33% 29.96%+0.21 -0.6 13
2020-12-01 @ Noah D 1-155.7 1340 1376 29.96% 27.33% 42.71%-0.21 +0.6 15
2020-12-02 Ararat D 0-051.1 1424 1334 49.82% 26.44% 23.74%+0.49 -1.4 15
2020-12-02 @ Ararat-Armenia D 0-051.1 1334 1424 23.74% 26.44% 49.82%-0.49 +1.4 15
2020-12-02 Lori D 1-154.3 1270 1302 33.17% 27.52% 39.31%-0.13 +0.3 5
2020-12-02 @ Pyunik D 1-154.3 1302 1270 39.31% 27.52% 33.17%+0.13 -0.3 14
2020-12-05 Noah L 0-139.2 1265 1375 23.78% 26.45% 49.77%-0.53 -6.2 10
2020-12-05 @ Van W 1-039.2 1375 1265 49.77% 26.45% 23.78%+0.53 +6.2 16
2020-12-06 Ararat-Armenia L 0-138.3 1270 1423 19.84% 25.37% 54.78%-0.74 -5.3 5
2020-12-06 @ Pyunik W 1-038.3 1423 1270 54.78% 25.37% 19.84%+0.74 +5.3 18
2020-12-08 Shirak W 3-248.4 1302 1191 52.37% 25.94% 21.69%+0.59 +5.1 17
2020-12-08 @ Lori L 2-348.4 1191 1302 21.69% 25.94% 52.37%-0.59 -5.1 2
2020-12-10 Ararat L 0-140.1 1258 1336 27.46% 27.06% 45.48%-0.36 -7.0 10
2020-12-10 @ Van W 1-040.1 1336 1258 45.48% 27.06% 27.46%+0.36 +7.0 18
2020-12-12 Shirak L 0-242.6 1265 1186 48.44% 26.67% 24.90%+0.43 -20.4 5
2020-12-12 @ Pyunik W 2-042.6 1186 1265 24.90% 26.67% 48.44%-0.43 +20.4 5
2021-02-19 Van W 4-032.8 1382 1251 54.63% 25.41% 19.96%+0.69 +19.0 19
2021-02-19 @ Noah L 0-432.8 1251 1382 19.96% 25.41% 54.63%-0.69 -19.0 10
2021-02-20 Lori L 0-138.8 1206 1307 24.83% 26.65% 48.52%-0.48 -6.5 5
2021-02-20 @ Shirak W 1-038.8 1307 1206 48.52% 26.65% 24.83%+0.48 +6.5 20
2021-02-21 Pyunik W 2-142.6 1428 1245 60.49% 23.65% 15.86%+0.96 +4.0 21
2021-02-21 @ Ararat-Armenia L 1-242.6 1245 1428 15.86% 23.65% 60.49%-0.96 -4.0 5
2021-02-21 Urartu W 2-040.0 1343 1341 37.99% 27.55% 34.46%+0.04 +15.7 21
2021-02-21 @ Ararat L 0-240.0 1341 1343 34.46% 27.55% 37.99%-0.04 -15.7 15
2021-02-24 Alashkert L 0-141.5 1314 1381 28.67% 27.20% 44.13%-0.31 -7.2 20
2021-02-24 @ Lori W 1-041.5 1381 1314 44.13% 27.20% 28.67%+0.31 +7.2 21
2021-02-24 Van D 0-048.2 1200 1232 33.16% 27.52% 39.32%-0.13 +0.3 6
2021-02-24 @ Shirak D 0-048.2 1232 1200 39.32% 27.52% 33.16%+0.13 -0.3 11
2021-02-25 Ararat-Armenia W 1-048.0 1358 1432 27.87% 27.11% 45.02%-0.34 +10.2 24
2021-02-25 @ Ararat L 0-148.0 1432 1358 45.02% 27.11% 27.87%+0.34 -10.2 21
2021-02-28 Lori W 2-146.3 1388 1306 48.77% 26.61% 24.62%+0.44 +6.0 24
2021-02-28 @ Alashkert L 1-246.3 1306 1388 24.62% 26.61% 48.77%-0.44 -6.0 20
2021-03-01 Pyunik L 0-237.9 1200 1241 32.08% 27.47% 40.45%-0.17 -14.9 6
2021-03-01 @ Shirak W 2-037.9 1241 1200 40.45% 27.47% 32.08%+0.17 +14.9 8
2021-03-01 Van D 0-049.6 1369 1232 55.37% 25.22% 19.41%+0.72 -2.0 25
2021-03-01 @ Ararat D 0-049.6 1232 1369 19.41% 25.22% 55.37%-0.72 +2.0 12
2021-03-02 Urartu L 0-148.6 1422 1325 50.67% 26.28% 23.04%+0.52 -11.2 21
2021-03-02 @ Ararat-Armenia W 1-048.6 1325 1422 23.04% 26.28% 50.67%-0.52 +11.2 18
2021-03-04 Noah W 2-044.2 1300 1401 24.89% 26.66% 48.44%-0.47 +20.4 23
2021-03-04 @ Lori L 0-244.2 1401 1300 48.44% 26.66% 24.89%+0.47 -20.4 19
2021-03-05 Alashkert D 1-155.4 1256 1394 21.08% 25.76% 53.15%-0.67 +1.6 9
2021-03-05 @ Pyunik D 1-155.4 1394 1256 53.15% 25.76% 21.08%+0.67 -1.6 25
2021-03-06 Urartu W 3-148.9 1234 1336 24.66% 26.62% 48.72%-0.48 +17.8 15
2021-03-06 @ Van L 1-348.9 1336 1234 48.72% 26.62% 24.66%+0.48 -17.8 18
2021-03-07 Ararat-Armenia D 2-261.6 1185 1411 14.52% 22.87% 62.61%-1.10 +1.8 7
2021-03-07 @ Shirak D 2-261.6 1411 1185 62.61% 22.87% 14.52%+1.10 -1.8 22
2021-03-08 Lori W 3-143.7 1380 1321 45.89% 27.02% 27.10%+0.33 +11.3 22
2021-03-08 @ Noah L 1-343.7 1321 1380 27.10% 27.02% 45.89%-0.33 -11.3 23
2021-03-16 Lori W 3-036.1 1367 1309 45.59% 27.05% 27.36%+0.32 +19.1 28
2021-03-16 @ Ararat L 0-336.1 1309 1367 27.36% 27.05% 45.59%-0.32 -19.1 23
2021-03-16 Pyunik L 0-148.3 1391 1257 55.11% 25.29% 19.60%+0.71 -12.0 22
2021-03-16 @ Noah W 1-048.3 1257 1391 19.60% 25.29% 55.11%-0.71 +12.1 12
2021-03-17 Shirak D 0-050.2 1393 1187 62.71% 22.83% 14.46%+1.07 -2.8 26
2021-03-17 @ Alashkert D 0-050.2 1187 1393 14.46% 22.83% 62.71%-1.07 +2.8 8
2021-03-18 Van W 3-032.3 1409 1252 57.67% 24.57% 17.76%+0.82 +13.1 25
2021-03-18 @ Ararat-Armenia L 0-332.3 1252 1409 17.76% 24.57% 57.67%-0.82 -13.0 15
2021-04-07 Ararat W 1-046.2 1319 1386 28.67% 27.20% 44.12%-0.31 +10.0 21
2021-04-07 @ Urartu L 0-146.2 1386 1319 44.12% 27.20% 28.67%+0.31 -10.0 28
2021-04-08 Van L 2-360.3 1422 1239 60.46% 23.66% 15.88%+0.96 -11.6 25
2021-04-08 @ Ararat-Armenia W 3-260.3 1239 1422 15.88% 23.66% 60.46%-0.96 +11.6 18
2021-04-09 Pyunik W 1-038.5 1379 1269 52.28% 25.96% 21.76%+0.59 +5.8 25
2021-04-09 @ Noah L 0-138.5 1269 1379 21.76% 25.96% 52.28%-0.59 -5.8 12
2021-04-11 Alashkert D 0-049.9 1190 1390 16.19% 23.82% 59.99%-0.97 +2.5 9
2021-04-11 @ Shirak D 0-049.9 1390 1190 59.99% 23.82% 16.19%+0.97 -2.5 27
2021-04-13 Ararat-Armenia FL47.5 1290 1410 22.84% 26.23% 50.92%-0.57 +0.0 23
2021-04-13 @ Lori FW47.5 1410 1290 50.92% 26.23% 22.84%+0.57 +0.0 28
2021-04-14 Pyunik L 0-337.6 1250 1263 35.85% 27.57% 36.59%-0.03 -23.5 18
2021-04-14 @ Van W 3-037.6 1263 1250 36.59% 27.57% 35.85%+0.03 +23.5 15
2021-04-14 Urartu W 1-041.3 1387 1329 45.80% 27.02% 27.17%+0.33 +7.0 30
2021-04-14 @ Alashkert L 0-141.3 1329 1387 27.17% 27.02% 45.80%-0.33 -6.9 21
2021-04-15 Noah L 2-355.7 1376 1385 36.37% 27.57% 36.06%-0.02 -7.8 28
2021-04-15 @ Ararat W 3-255.7 1385 1376 36.06% 27.57% 36.37%+0.02 +7.8 28
2021-04-15 Shirak W 2-140.9 1410 1192 63.96% 22.34% 13.71%+1.13 +3.4 31
2021-04-15 @ Ararat-Armenia L 1-240.9 1192 1410 13.71% 22.34% 63.96%-1.13 -3.5 9
2021-04-19 Pyunik L 0-144.8 1322 1287 42.58% 27.34% 30.09%+0.21 -9.8 21
2021-04-19 @ Urartu W 1-044.8 1287 1322 30.09% 27.34% 42.58%-0.21 +9.8 18
2021-04-23 Lori FW45.8 1189 1290 24.77% 26.64% 48.59%-0.48 +0.0 12
2021-04-23 @ Shirak FL45.8 1290 1189 48.59% 26.64% 24.77%+0.48 +0.0 23
2021-04-23 Van L 1-247.3 1189 1227 32.42% 27.48% 40.09%-0.16 -7.5 12
2021-04-23 @ Shirak W 2-147.3 1227 1189 40.09% 27.48% 32.42%+0.16 +7.5 21
2021-04-25 Ararat L 1-247.2 1297 1368 28.18% 27.15% 44.67%-0.33 -6.8 18
2021-04-25 @ Pyunik W 2-147.2 1368 1297 44.67% 27.15% 28.18%+0.33 +6.7 31
2021-04-25 Ararat-Armenia D 0-050.5 1312 1414 24.70% 26.63% 48.67%-0.48 +1.3 22
2021-04-25 @ Urartu D 0-050.5 1414 1312 48.67% 26.63% 24.70%+0.48 -1.3 32
2021-04-26 Alashkert W 1-045.0 1393 1394 37.53% 27.56% 34.91%+0.03 +8.4 31
2021-04-26 @ Noah L 0-145.0 1394 1393 34.91% 27.56% 37.53%-0.03 -8.4 30
2021-05-01 Shirak W 1-036.9 1313 1181 54.80% 25.37% 19.83%+0.70 +5.3 25
2021-05-01 @ Urartu L 0-136.9 1181 1313 19.83% 25.37% 54.80%-0.70 -5.3 12
2021-05-02 Urartu FL46.2 1290 1318 33.74% 27.53% 38.73%-0.11 +0.0 23
2021-05-02 @ Lori FW46.2 1318 1290 38.73% 27.53% 33.74%+0.11 +0.0 28
2021-05-05 Ararat D 1-155.1 1234 1375 20.92% 25.72% 53.36%-0.67 +1.6 22
2021-05-05 @ Van D 1-155.1 1375 1234 53.36% 25.72% 20.92%+0.67 -1.6 32
2021-05-06 Noah D 0-051.9 1413 1401 39.31% 27.52% 33.17%+0.09 -0.3 33
2021-05-06 @ Ararat-Armenia D 0-051.9 1401 1413 33.17% 27.52% 39.31%-0.09 +0.3 32
2021-05-06 Pyunik W 1-039.3 1386 1290 50.54% 26.31% 23.15%+0.52 +6.1 33
2021-05-06 @ Alashkert L 0-139.3 1290 1386 23.15% 26.31% 50.54%-0.52 -6.1 18
2021-05-07 Urartu D 1-154.5 1176 1318 20.75% 25.66% 53.59%-0.68 +1.6 13
2021-05-07 @ Shirak D 1-154.5 1318 1176 53.59% 25.66% 20.75%+0.68 -1.6 29
2021-05-10 Alashkert D 0-050.9 1373 1392 35.03% 27.56% 37.41%-0.06 +0.1 33
2021-05-10 @ Ararat D 0-050.9 1392 1373 37.41% 27.56% 35.03%+0.06 -0.1 34
2021-05-11 Lori FW47.4 1402 1290 52.41% 25.93% 21.66%+0.59 +0.0 35
2021-05-11 @ Noah FL47.4 1290 1402 21.66% 25.93% 52.41%-0.59 +0.0 23
2021-05-11 Ararat-Armenia D 0-050.2 1284 1412 22.04% 26.03% 51.93%-0.61 +1.6 19
2021-05-11 @ Pyunik D 0-050.2 1412 1284 51.93% 26.03% 22.04%+0.61 -1.6 34
2021-05-11 Shirak W 3-029.6 1402 1178 64.53% 22.10% 13.37%+1.16 +9.8 38
2021-05-11 @ Noah L 0-329.6 1178 1402 13.37% 22.10% 64.53%-1.16 -9.8 13
2021-05-11 Van W 2-145.2 1317 1236 48.67% 26.63% 24.70%+0.44 +6.1 32
2021-05-11 @ Urartu L 1-245.2 1236 1317 24.70% 26.63% 48.67%-0.44 -6.1 22
2021-05-14 Pyunik FL46.0 1290 1286 38.41% 27.54% 34.05%+0.06 +0.0 23
2021-05-14 @ Lori FW46.0 1286 1290 34.05% 27.54% 38.41%-0.06 +0.0 22
2021-05-15 Ararat-Armenia L 1-247.4 1323 1411 26.26% 26.90% 46.84%-0.41 -6.4 32
2021-05-15 @ Urartu W 2-147.4 1411 1323 46.84% 26.90% 26.26%+0.41 +6.4 37
2021-05-15 Noah L 0-139.2 1286 1411 22.27% 26.09% 51.63%-0.60 -5.9 22
2021-05-15 @ Pyunik W 1-039.2 1411 1286 51.63% 26.09% 22.27%+0.60 +5.9 41
2021-05-18 Lori FW46.9 1373 1290 48.91% 26.59% 24.50%+0.45 +0.0 36
2021-05-18 @ Ararat FL46.9 1290 1373 24.50% 26.59% 48.91%-0.45 +0.0 23
2021-05-19 Alashkert W 3-150.9 1230 1392 19.06% 25.09% 55.85%-0.78 +19.9 25
2021-05-19 @ Van L 1-350.9 1392 1230 55.85% 25.09% 19.06%+0.78 -19.9 34
2021-05-19 Ararat D 1-157.0 1417 1373 43.81% 27.23% 28.96%+0.25 -0.7 38
2021-05-19 @ Ararat-Armenia D 1-157.0 1373 1417 28.96% 27.23% 43.81%-0.25 +0.7 37
2021-05-19 Noah W 1-047.8 1317 1417 24.83% 26.65% 48.51%-0.48 +10.8 35
2021-05-19 @ Urartu L 0-147.8 1417 1317 48.51% 26.65% 24.83%+0.48 -10.8 41
2021-05-20 Pyunik L 1-536.4 1168 1280 23.70% 26.43% 49.88%-0.53 -18.5 13
2021-05-20 @ Shirak W 5-136.4 1280 1168 49.88% 26.43% 23.70%+0.53 +18.5 25
2021-05-22 Alashkert L 1-253.8 1416 1372 43.89% 27.23% 28.88%+0.26 -9.4 38
2021-05-22 @ Ararat-Armenia W 2-153.8 1372 1416 28.88% 27.23% 43.89%-0.26 +9.4 37
2021-05-22 Ararat W 2-042.3 1327 1374 31.27% 27.42% 41.30%-0.20 +18.0 38
2021-05-22 @ Urartu L 0-242.3 1374 1327 41.30% 27.42% 31.27%+0.20 -18.0 37
2021-05-23 Alashkert FL46.9 1290 1381 25.90% 26.84% 47.26%-0.43 +0.0 23
2021-05-23 @ Lori FW46.9 1381 1290 47.26% 26.84% 25.90%+0.43 +0.0 40
2021-05-25 Alashkert L 0-143.8 1356 1381 34.11% 27.54% 38.35%-0.10 -8.3 37
2021-05-25 @ Ararat W 1-043.8 1381 1356 38.35% 27.54% 34.11%+0.10 +8.3 43
2021-05-28 Ararat-Armenia W 1-045.9 1390 1407 35.26% 27.57% 37.18%-0.05 +8.8 46
2021-05-28 @ Alashkert L 0-145.9 1407 1390 37.18% 27.57% 35.26%+0.05 -8.8 38
2021-05-28 Shirak W 5-236.3 1348 1150 61.98% 23.11% 14.91%+1.03 +8.0 40
2021-05-28 @ Ararat L 2-536.3 1150 1348 14.91% 23.11% 61.98%-1.03 -8.0 13
2021-05-28 Urartu L 0-141.7 1298 1345 31.18% 27.42% 41.40%-0.21 -7.7 25
2021-05-28 @ Pyunik W 1-041.7 1345 1298 41.40% 27.42% 31.18%+0.21 +7.7 41
2021-05-28 Van L 1-255.2 1406 1250 57.61% 24.59% 17.80%+0.82 -11.8 41
2021-05-28 @ Noah W 2-155.2 1250 1406 17.80% 24.59% 57.61%-0.82 +11.8 28
2021-05-30 Lori FW45.8 1262 1290 33.65% 27.53% 38.82%-0.11 +0.0 31
2021-05-30 @ Van FL45.8 1290 1262 38.82% 27.53% 33.65%+0.11 +0.0 23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2021-04-08 15.88% Van 1239 3 @ Ararat-Armenia 1422 2
2 2021-05-28 17.80% Van 1250 2 @ Noah 1406 1
3 2021-05-19 19.06% @ Van 1230 3 Alashkert 1392 1
4 2021-03-16 19.60% Pyunik 1257 1 @ Noah 1391 0
5 2021-03-02 23.04% Urartu 1325 1 @ Ararat-Armenia 1422 0
6 2020-09-11 24.35% Lori 1283 2 @ Ararat-Armenia 1367 1
7 2021-03-06 24.66% @ Van 1234 3 Urartu 1336 1
8 2021-05-19 24.83% @ Urartu 1317 1 Noah 1417 0
9 2021-03-04 24.89% @ Lori 1300 2 Noah 1401 0
10 2020-12-12 24.90% Shirak 1186 2 @ Pyunik 1265 0
11 2020-11-21 27.87% Ararat 1324 2 @ Alashkert 1377 1
12 2021-02-25 27.87% @ Ararat 1358 1 Ararat-Armenia 1432 0
13 2020-09-26 28.16% Ararat 1280 3 @ Shirak 1331 0
14 2021-04-07 28.67% @ Urartu 1319 1 Ararat 1386 0
15 2021-05-22 28.88% Alashkert 1372 2 @ Ararat-Armenia 1416 1
16 2020-09-13 29.17% Urartu 1331 2 @ Alashkert 1373 1
17 2021-04-19 30.09% Pyunik 1287 1 @ Urartu 1322 0
18 2020-11-02 30.62% Alashkert 1368 2 @ Noah 1398 1
19 2021-05-22 31.27% @ Urartu 1327 2 Ararat 1374 0
20 2020-09-15 33.51% Van 1284 1 @ Lori 1293 0
21 2021-05-28 35.26% @ Alashkert 1390 1 Ararat-Armenia 1407 0
22 2020-10-26 35.43% @ Lori 1292 1 Ararat 1308 0
23 2020-08-16 35.45% @ Ararat 1278 1 Pyunik 1294 0
24 2021-04-15 36.06% Noah 1385 3 @ Ararat 1376 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-10-17 42.84 @ Ararat-Armenia 7 1356 45.13% Shirak 0 1303 27.77% 27.10%
2 2020-09-26 27.79 Ararat 3 1280 28.16% @ Shirak 0 1331 44.69% 27.15%
3 2020-11-03 25.24 @ Ararat 4 1299 45.20% Shirak 0 1245 27.70% 27.09%
4 2021-04-14 23.51 Pyunik 3 1263 36.59% @ Van 0 1250 35.85% 27.57%
5 2020-09-22 23.12 Noah 3 1359 37.38% @ Urartu 0 1340 35.06% 27.56%
6 2020-08-17 22.74 @ Urartu 3 1309 38.19% Lori 0 1305 34.26% 27.55%
7 2020-12-12 20.42 Shirak 2 1186 24.90% @ Pyunik 0 1265 48.44% 26.67%
8 2021-03-04 20.42 @ Lori 2 1300 24.89% Noah 0 1401 48.44% 26.66%
9 2021-05-19 19.92 @ Van 3 1230 19.06% Alashkert 1 1392 55.85% 25.09%
10 2021-03-16 19.13 @ Ararat 3 1367 45.59% Lori 0 1309 27.36% 27.05%
11 2021-02-19 19.05 @ Noah 4 1382 54.63% Van 0 1251 19.96% 25.41%
12 2021-05-20 18.49 Pyunik 5 1280 49.88% @ Shirak 1 1168 23.70% 26.43%
13 2021-05-22 17.99 @ Urartu 2 1327 31.27% Ararat 0 1374 41.30% 27.42%
14 2021-03-06 17.76 @ Van 3 1234 24.66% Urartu 1 1336 48.72% 26.62%
15 2020-11-22 16.97 Urartu 3 1331 49.88% @ Shirak 0 1220 23.69% 26.43%
16 2020-10-30 16.41 Noah 3 1382 51.01% @ Shirak 0 1261 22.77% 26.22%
17 2021-02-21 15.73 @ Ararat 2 1343 37.99% Urartu 0 1341 34.46% 27.55%
18 2021-03-01 14.91 Pyunik 2 1241 40.45% @ Shirak 0 1200 32.08% 27.47%
19 2020-10-19 14.36 @ Urartu 2 1317 42.07% Van 0 1286 30.56% 27.37%
20 2020-11-23 13.06 @ Ararat-Armenia 3 1405 39.94% Noah 1 1389 32.57% 27.49%
21 2021-03-18 13.06 @ Ararat-Armenia 3 1409 57.67% Van 0 1252 17.76% 24.57%
22 2021-03-16 12.06 Pyunik 1 1257 19.60% @ Noah 0 1391 55.11% 25.29%
23 2021-05-28 11.80 Van 2 1250 17.80% @ Noah 1 1406 57.61% 24.59%
24 2021-04-08 11.65 Van 3 1239 15.88% @ Ararat-Armenia 2 1422 60.46% 23.66%
25 2020-11-26 11.45 @ Van 3 1259 45.45% Shirak 1 1203 27.48% 27.07%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-03-07 61.6 @ Shirak 2 1185 14.52% Ararat-Armenia 2 1411 62.61% 22.87%
2 2020-08-16 61.2 @ Noah 2 1361 42.06% Shirak 2 1330 30.56% 27.37%
3 2021-04-08 60.3 Van 3 1239 15.88% @ Ararat-Armenia 2 1422 60.46% 23.66%
4 2021-05-19 57.0 @ Ararat-Armenia 1 1417 43.81% Ararat 1 1373 28.96% 27.23%
5 2020-12-01 55.7 @ Noah 1 1376 42.71% Urartu 1 1340 29.96% 27.33%
6 2021-04-15 55.7 Noah 3 1385 36.06% @ Ararat 2 1376 36.37% 27.57%
7 2020-11-27 55.6 @ Ararat 1 1334 31.81% Noah 1 1376 40.74% 27.45%
8 2021-03-05 55.4 @ Pyunik 1 1256 21.08% Alashkert 1 1394 53.15% 25.76%
9 2021-05-28 55.2 Van 2 1250 17.80% @ Noah 1 1406 57.61% 24.59%
10 2021-05-05 55.1 @ Van 1 1234 20.92% Ararat 1 1375 53.36% 25.72%
11 2020-10-26 55.0 @ Shirak 1 1260 23.95% Alashkert 1 1369 49.58% 26.48%
12 2020-10-29 54.7 @ Lori 1 1301 33.39% Urartu 1 1331 39.09% 27.52%
13 2021-05-07 54.5 @ Shirak 1 1176 20.75% Urartu 1 1318 53.59% 25.66%
14 2020-10-31 54.3 @ Pyunik 1 1270 33.61% Ararat 1 1299 38.86% 27.53%
15 2020-12-02 54.3 @ Pyunik 1 1270 33.17% Lori 1 1302 39.31% 27.52%
16 2021-05-22 53.8 Alashkert 2 1372 28.88% @ Ararat-Armenia 1 1416 43.89% 27.23%
17 2020-09-11 53.2 Lori 2 1283 24.35% @ Ararat-Armenia 1 1367 49.08% 26.56%
18 2020-11-02 52.9 Alashkert 2 1368 30.62% @ Noah 1 1398 42.00% 27.38%
19 2020-11-21 52.7 Ararat 2 1324 27.87% @ Alashkert 1 1377 45.01% 27.11%
20 2020-09-13 52.3 Urartu 2 1331 29.17% @ Alashkert 1 1373 43.58% 27.25%
21 2021-05-06 51.9 @ Ararat-Armenia 0 1413 39.31% Noah 0 1401 33.17% 27.52%
22 2020-11-08 51.4 @ Noah 0 1389 35.45% Ararat-Armenia 0 1405 36.98% 27.57%
23 2020-12-02 51.1 @ Ararat-Armenia 0 1424 49.82% Ararat 0 1334 23.74% 26.44%
24 2021-05-10 50.9 @ Ararat 0 1373 35.03% Alashkert 0 1392 37.41% 27.56%
25 2021-05-19 50.9 @ Van 3 1230 19.06% Alashkert 1 1392 55.85% 25.09%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-05-11 29.6 @ Noah 3 1402 64.53% Shirak 0 1178 13.37% 22.10%
2 2021-03-18 32.3 @ Ararat-Armenia 3 1409 57.67% Van 0 1252 17.76% 24.57%
3 2021-02-19 32.8 @ Noah 4 1382 54.63% Van 0 1251 19.96% 25.41%
4 2020-11-22 33.8 Urartu 3 1331 49.88% @ Shirak 0 1220 23.69% 26.43%
5 2020-10-30 34.1 Noah 3 1382 51.01% @ Shirak 0 1261 22.77% 26.22%
6 2020-11-03 35.0 @ Ararat 4 1299 45.20% Shirak 0 1245 27.70% 27.09%
7 2021-03-16 36.1 @ Ararat 3 1367 45.59% Lori 0 1309 27.36% 27.05%
8 2021-05-28 36.3 @ Ararat 5 1348 61.98% Shirak 2 1150 14.91% 23.11%
9 2021-05-20 36.4 Pyunik 5 1280 49.88% @ Shirak 1 1168 23.70% 26.43%
10 2021-05-01 36.9 @ Urartu 1 1313 54.80% Shirak 0 1181 19.83% 25.37%
11 2020-10-17 37.3 @ Ararat-Armenia 7 1356 45.13% Shirak 0 1303 27.77% 27.10%
12 2021-04-14 37.6 Pyunik 3 1263 36.59% @ Van 0 1250 35.85% 27.57%
13 2020-08-17 37.7 @ Urartu 3 1309 38.19% Lori 0 1305 34.26% 27.55%
14 2021-03-01 37.9 Pyunik 2 1241 40.45% @ Shirak 0 1200 32.08% 27.47%
15 2020-10-19 38.1 @ Urartu 2 1317 42.07% Van 0 1286 30.56% 27.37%
16 2020-12-06 38.3 Ararat-Armenia 1 1423 54.78% @ Pyunik 0 1270 19.84% 25.37%
17 2021-04-09 38.5 @ Noah 1 1379 52.28% Pyunik 0 1269 21.76% 25.96%
18 2020-09-22 38.8 Noah 3 1359 37.38% @ Urartu 0 1340 35.06% 27.56%
19 2021-02-20 38.8 Lori 1 1307 48.52% @ Shirak 0 1206 24.83% 26.65%
20 2020-10-25 38.9 Ararat-Armenia 1 1399 51.84% @ Van 0 1272 22.11% 26.05%
21 2020-12-05 39.2 Noah 1 1375 49.77% @ Van 0 1265 23.78% 26.45%
22 2021-05-15 39.2 Noah 1 1411 51.63% @ Pyunik 0 1286 22.27% 26.09%
23 2021-05-06 39.3 @ Alashkert 1 1386 50.54% Pyunik 0 1290 23.15% 26.31%
24 2021-02-21 40.0 @ Ararat 2 1343 37.99% Urartu 0 1341 34.46% 27.55%
25 2020-12-10 40.1 Ararat 1 1336 45.48% @ Van 0 1258 27.46% 27.06%