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1995-96 Azerbaijan Top League Season

157 games

Final

Champion

Neftchi Baku

39 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1992

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Khazri Buzovna

13.03 points above expected

47 points · 33.97 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Shamkir

7.40 points below expected

13 points · 20.40 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Khazri Buzovna 20 14 5 1 47 22 7 +15 33.97 +13.03
2 Kapaz 20 13 4 3 43 74 20 +54 40.25 +2.75
3 Turan Tovuz 20 13 2 5 41 41 21 +20 37.50 +3.50
4 Qarabag 20 12 4 4 40 38 15 +23 34.83 +5.17
5 Neftchi Baku Champion 20 11 6 3 39 42 17 +25 40.02 -1.02
6 Kur-Nur 20 7 4 9 25 32 41 -9 29.04 -4.04
7 Baku Fahlasi 20 6 3 11 21 20 35 -15 19.55 +1.45
8 Masalli 20 6 1 13 19 22 46 -24 21.66 -2.66
9 MOIK Baku 20 5 1 14 16 17 44 -27 20.43 -4.43
10 Shamkir 20 3 4 13 13 15 33 -18 20.40 -7.40
11 Pambiqci Neftcala 20 2 2 16 8 16 60 -44 12.32 -4.32
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Neftchi Baku 10 6 2 2 20 18 12 +6 54.88 -34.88
2 Khazri Buzovna 10 4 4 2 16 10 9 +1 60.02 -44.02
3 Kapaz 10 4 2 4 14 10 9 +1 62.10 -48.10
4 Shamkir 8 4 1 3 13 20 10 +10 26.62 -13.62
5 Baku Fahlasi 7 4 1 2 13 13 7 +6 33.81 -20.81
6 MOIK Baku 8 4 1 3 13 9 6 +3 28.15 -15.15
7 Turan Tovuz 8 4 1 3 13 8 10 -2 56.55 -43.55
8 Masalli 7 3 1 3 10 9 16 -7 29.27 -19.27
9 Qarabag 9 1 5 3 8 13 12 +1 53.05 -45.05
10 Pambiqci Neftcala 8 2 0 6 6 13 25 -12 15.37 -9.37
11 Kur-Nur 9 1 2 6 5 7 14 -7 32.84 -27.84

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Khazri Buzovna 47 33.97 +13.03
2 Qarabag 40 34.83 +5.17
3 Turan Tovuz 41 37.50 +3.50
4 Kapaz 43 40.25 +2.75
5 Baku Fahlasi 21 19.55 +1.45

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shamkir 13 20.40 -7.40
2 MOIK Baku 16 20.43 -4.43
3 Pambiqci Neftcala 8 12.32 -4.32
4 Kur-Nur 25 29.04 -4.04
5 Masalli 19 21.66 -2.66

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Khazri Buzovna 6 Jul 30 – Sep 24 1 in 67
2 MOIK Baku 2 Feb 11 – Feb 25 1 in 17
3 Qarabag 4 Nov 5 – Dec 3 1 in 10
4 Masalli 3 Aug 2 – Sep 10 1 in 10
5 Turan Tovuz 5 Oct 1 – Nov 8 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 MOIK Baku 8 Sep 24 – Dec 3 1 in 99
2 Shamkir 7 Nov 5 – Dec 17 1 in 46
3 Masalli 6 Dec 17 – Mar 13 1 in 19
4 Pambiqci Neftcala 6 Jul 30 – Sep 17 1 in 11
5 Qarabag 2 Dec 10 – Feb 11 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Khazri Buzovna 13 Oct 15 – Mar 17 1 in 552
2 Neftchi Baku 11 Aug 2 – Nov 19 1 in 19
3 MOIK Baku 4 Feb 11 – Mar 10 1 in 18
4 Qarabag 8 Jul 30 – Oct 22 1 in 17
5 Shamkir 3 Sep 24 – Oct 22 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Neftchi Baku 3 Feb 21 – Mar 6 1 in 33
2 Shamkir 8 Jul 30 – Oct 1 1 in 31
3 MOIK Baku 8 Sep 24 – Dec 3 1 in 10
4 Qarabag 3 Dec 10 – Feb 18 1 in 8
5 Pambiqci Neftcala 12 Jul 30 – Nov 19 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Neftchi Baku 1071 59 +13 10 9.1 +0.9
Kapaz 1081 57 -4 9 9.1 -0.1
Khazri Buzovna 991 54 +41 10 6.7 +3.3
Turan Tovuz 1009 54 -17 7 7.6 -0.6
Qarabag 967 48 -12 4 7.2 -3.2
Baku Fahlasi 756 34 +17 9 7.8 +1.2
MOIK Baku 725 29 +17 9 7.4 +1.6
Masalli 633 29 -32 6 6.1 -0.1
Kur-Nur 800 27 -16 2 3.6 -1.6
Shamkir 747 26 -30 6 8.9 -2.9
Pambiqci Neftcala 559 14 +18 6 4.8 +1.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BF KAP KB KUR MB MAS NB PN QAR SHA TT
Baku Fahlasi —
1-0-1
1.00
0-0-2
1.70
0-1-1
2.14
2-0-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.81
0-1-1
1.04
2-0-0
3.77
0-0-2
1.45
0-1-1
2.82
1-0-1
1.05
Kapaz
1-0-1
4.68
—
1-1-0
3.89
2-0-0
4.20
2-0-0
4.71
1-1-0
4.56
0-1-1
2.95
2-0-0
5.17
1-0-1
3.63
2-0-0
4.32
1-1-0
2.91
Khazri Buzovna
2-0-0
3.93
0-1-1
1.74
—
1-1-0
3.52
2-0-0
3.82
2-0-0
3.56
1-1-0
1.92
2-0-0
4.62
1-1-0
2.44
2-0-0
3.88
1-1-0
2.03
Kur-Nur
1-1-0
3.48
0-0-2
1.43
0-1-1
2.10
—
1-0-1
3.51
2-0-0
3.28
0-0-2
1.53
2-0-0
4.41
0-1-1
1.78
1-1-0
3.45
0-0-2
1.82
MOIK Baku
0-0-2
2.86
0-0-2
0.96
0-0-2
1.81
1-0-1
2.11
—
1-0-1
2.81
1-0-1
0.92
1-0-1
3.73
1-0-1
1.20
0-1-1
2.59
0-0-2
1.20
Masalli
2-0-0
2.81
0-1-1
1.11
0-0-2
2.07
0-0-2
2.34
1-0-1
2.80
—
0-0-2
0.97
1-0-1
4.04
0-0-2
1.47
2-0-0
2.81
0-0-2
1.23
Neftchi Baku
1-1-0
4.62
1-1-0
2.67
0-1-1
3.71
2-0-0
4.11
1-0-1
4.75
2-0-0
4.70
—
1-1-0
5.18
0-2-0
3.42
2-0-0
4.31
1-0-1
2.92
Pambiqci Neftcala
0-0-2
1.86
0-0-2
0.55
0-0-2
1.05
0-0-2
1.24
1-0-1
1.90
1-0-1
1.59
0-1-1
0.55
—
0-0-2
1.01
0-1-1
1.82
0-0-2
0.68
Qarabag
2-0-0
4.19
1-0-1
1.98
0-1-1
3.18
1-1-0
3.85
1-0-1
4.45
2-0-0
4.17
0-2-0
2.20
2-0-0
4.65
—
2-0-0
4.01
1-0-1
2.37
Shamkir
1-1-0
2.79
0-0-2
1.32
0-0-2
1.76
0-1-1
2.18
1-1-0
3.04
0-0-2
2.81
0-0-2
1.35
1-1-0
3.82
0-0-2
1.62
—
0-0-2
1.14
Turan Tovuz
1-0-1
4.61
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
3.60
2-0-0
3.82
2-0-0
4.45
2-0-0
4.42
1-0-1
2.69
2-0-0
5.03
1-0-1
3.25
2-0-0
4.51
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.47 +5.4
Allowed 0.84 -7.9
Differential 0.84 +4.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.64%9.55%7.32%2.23%1.59%1.59%29.94%
19.55%7.01%5.41%3.82%2.55%0.96%29.30%
27.32%5.41%2.55%1.27%0.64%1.91%19.11%
32.23%3.82%1.27%0.64%—0.96%8.92%
41.59%2.55%0.64%———4.78%
5+1.59%0.96%1.91%0.96%—2.55%7.96%
Total29.94%29.30%19.11%8.92%4.78%7.96%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.75 1.75 2.47
CV 1.19 1.19 —
Max 10 10 +9
Min -1 -1 -9

Games Played: 157

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%3.70%18.52%———25.93%
118.52%11.11%7.41%3.70%3.70%—44.44%
23.70%7.41%—3.70%3.70%3.70%22.22%
33.70%—————3.70%
4———————
5+———3.70%——3.70%
Total29.63%22.22%25.93%11.11%7.41%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.56 -0.33
SD 1.25 1.42 1.71
CV 1.02 0.91 —
Max 6 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%13.33%—3.33%——30.00%
1—3.33%3.33%———6.67%
210.00%10.00%—3.33%——23.33%
3—3.33%3.33%3.33%——10.00%
46.67%3.33%————10.00%
5+6.67%6.67%6.67%———20.00%
Total36.67%40.00%13.33%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.80 0.97 +1.83
SD 2.98 0.96 3.05
CV 1.06 1.00 —
Max 10 3 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%3.33%——3.33%—23.33%
126.67%10.00%3.33%———40.00%
26.67%6.67%3.33%———16.67%
33.33%3.33%————6.67%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+—————10.00%10.00%
Total53.33%26.67%6.67%—3.33%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 0.43 +0.53
SD 1.19 1.01 1.31
CV 1.23 2.32 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.45%13.79%6.90%3.45%3.45%3.45%34.48%
13.45%13.79%10.34%3.45%—3.45%34.48%
2——3.45%—3.45%—6.90%
3—3.45%3.45%———6.90%
43.45%—————3.45%
5+3.45%——6.90%—3.45%13.79%
Total13.79%31.03%24.14%13.79%6.90%10.34%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.86 -0.55
SD 1.67 1.68 2.35
CV 1.28 0.90 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 29

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%21.43%3.57%3.57%—42.86%
114.29%3.57%7.14%—3.57%3.57%32.14%
27.14%3.57%———3.57%14.29%
33.57%3.57%———3.57%10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%21.43%28.57%3.57%7.14%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.79 -0.86
SD 1.02 1.81 2.05
CV 1.09 1.02 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%14.81%11.11%—7.41%7.41%44.44%
13.70%3.70%—7.41%3.70%—18.52%
27.41%7.41%———7.41%22.22%
3—7.41%3.70%———11.11%
4———————
5+——3.70%———3.70%
Total14.81%33.33%18.52%7.41%11.11%14.81%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 2.30 -1.15
SD 1.32 2.15 2.58
CV 1.15 0.93 —
Max 5 9 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%6.67%————20.00%
110.00%6.67%6.67%———23.33%
2—10.00%6.67%3.33%——20.00%
3—13.33%3.33%———16.67%
43.33%6.67%3.33%———13.33%
5+3.33%3.33%————6.67%
Total30.00%46.67%20.00%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.97 +1.03
SD 1.55 0.81 1.61
CV 0.78 0.84 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%3.57%7.14%—3.57%35.71%
1——3.57%14.29%10.71%3.57%32.14%
210.71%————7.14%17.86%
3—————7.14%7.14%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+—————3.57%3.57%
Total17.86%17.86%7.14%21.43%10.71%25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 3.00 -2.00
SD 1.15 2.97 2.87
CV 1.15 0.99 —
Max 4 10 +3
Min -1 -1 -9

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.90%10.34%—3.45%——20.69%
13.45%10.34%6.90%3.45%——24.14%
217.24%3.45%13.79%———34.48%
36.90%3.45%————10.34%
43.45%3.45%————6.90%
5+3.45%—————3.45%
Total41.38%31.03%20.69%6.90%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.76 0.93 +0.83
SD 1.53 0.96 2.04
CV 0.87 1.03 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 29

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%14.29%3.57%—3.57%39.29%
17.14%10.71%7.14%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
27.14%——3.57%——10.71%
33.57%—————3.57%
4———————
5+——7.14%——7.14%14.29%
Total25.00%21.43%28.57%10.71%3.57%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.46 -0.29
SD 2.26 1.79 2.79
CV 1.92 1.23 —
Max 9 8 +7
Min -1 -1 -8

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%7.14%———14.29%
117.86%3.57%3.57%7.14%3.57%—35.71%
210.71%10.71%————21.43%
33.57%3.57%—3.57%——10.71%
4—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
5+——3.57%——3.57%7.14%
Total35.71%28.57%17.86%10.71%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.07 +0.64
SD 1.54 1.21 1.79
CV 0.90 1.13 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Kapaz 1081 43 40.25 +2.75 74.0% 27 32 37 40 44 48 50
Neftchi Baku 1071 39 40.02 -1.02 48.0% 28 32 36 40 43 50 51
Turan Tovuz 1009 41 37.50 +3.50 77.0% 24 28 34 38 41 45 52
Khazri Buzovna 991 47 33.97 +13.03 100.0% 22 24 30 34 38 41 45
Qarabag 967 40 34.83 +5.17 82.0% 25 27 31 35 38 44 47
Kur-Nur 800 25 29.04 -4.04 23.0% 15 21 26 28 32 37 43
Baku Fahlasi 756 21 19.55 +1.45 64.0% 7 12 16 20 23 28 31
Shamkir 747 13 20.40 -7.40 7.0% 10 13 18 20 23 28 34
MOIK Baku 725 16 20.43 -4.43 25.0% 10 12 16 19 23 30 35
Masalli 633 19 21.66 -2.66 37.0% 8 12 18 22 25 30 37
Pambiqci Neftcala 559 8 12.32 -4.32 23.0% 3 5 9 12 15 20 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7.5% * Slight Edge: 7.5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+27.39%
Strong Edge
54.78%17.83%27.39%
Elo Value
Home Edge
132 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
088.15400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.71 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.67+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.34 * Runaway: 0.34 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.6
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
30%
Neftchi Baku, 2nd of 11
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.20/gm
Comfortable
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.06 * Some Luck: 4.06 to 6.09 * Lucky: 6.09 to 8.12 * Wild Swing: 8.12 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.98 * Close: 0.98 to 1.47 * Off: 1.47 to 1.96 * Way Off: 1.96 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 11 * As Expected: 11 to 17.6 * Several Outliers: 17.6 to 24.2 * Many Outliers: 24.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.52 points
Some Luck
05.0813
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.27
Close
01.222.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.45%
100.00%
Khazri Buzovna
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.55%
7.00%
Shamkir
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 11
Minimal Outliers
01.111

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.21 * Even: 0.21 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.15 * Moderate Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Strong Separation: 2.3 to 2.6 * Wide Separation: 2.6 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 73.5% * Slight Edge: 73.5% to 77.5% * Clear Edge: 77.5% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92% * Clear Edge: 92% to 97% * Strong Edge: 97% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59% * Some Drama: 59% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 67% * Very Frequent: 67% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14% * Occasional: 14% to 17.5% * Frequent: 17.5% to 21.5% * Very Frequent: 21.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Lopsided
00.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 178.60
2.26
Moderate Separation
12.152.63.25
Interquartile Edge
83%
Clear Edge
50%73.5%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
96%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Few
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Very Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.49
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Slight Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.20
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.77
Near-Lock
00.470.651
Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.24
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.27
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.087
Well Within Noise
00.1260.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011
Khazri Buzovna5.00%9.00%21.00%19.00%28.00%11.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%——
Kapaz39.00%24.00%20.00%10.00%4.00%3.00%—————
Turan Tovuz14.00%28.00%21.00%14.00%14.00%7.00%2.00%————
Qarabag10.00%10.00%19.00%25.00%21.00%9.00%5.00%1.00%———
Neftchi Baku30.00%28.00%12.00%21.00%4.00%4.00%1.00%————
Kur-Nur2.00%1.00%5.00%10.00%20.00%32.00%17.00%8.00%2.00%3.00%—
Baku Fahlasi—————6.00%17.00%21.00%31.00%16.00%9.00%
Masalli——1.00%1.00%5.00%14.00%19.00%22.00%11.00%20.00%7.00%
MOIK Baku————3.00%8.00%20.00%14.00%19.00%31.00%5.00%
Shamkir——1.00%—1.00%6.00%13.00%30.00%28.00%17.00%4.00%
Pambiqci Neftcala——————2.00%2.00%8.00%13.00%75.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Baku Fahlasi 100%
Kapaz 100%
Khazri Buzovna 100%
Kur-Nur 100%
MOIK Baku 100%
Masalli 100%
Neftchi Baku 100%
Pambiqci Neftcala 100%
Qarabag 100%
Shamkir 100%
Turan Tovuz 100%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level
Baku Fahlasi 100%
Kapaz 100%
Khazri Buzovna 100%
Kur-Nur 100%
MOIK Baku 100%
Masalli 100%
Neftchi Baku 100%
Pambiqci Neftcala 100%
Qarabag 100%
Shamkir 100%
Turan Tovuz 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1995-07-30 Shamkir W 8-027.2 1014 815 71.63% 17.07% 11.29%+2.18 +25.0 3
1995-07-30 @ Kapaz L 0-827.2 815 1014 11.29% 17.07% 71.63%-2.18 -25.1 0
1995-07-30 Khazri Buzovna L 0-143.2 764 838 42.62% 19.41% 37.97%+0.11 -12.0 0
1995-07-30 @ Masalli W 1-043.2 838 764 37.97% 19.41% 42.62%-0.11 +12.0 3
1995-07-30 Pambiqci Neftcala W 7-026.4 864 641 73.24% 16.71% 10.05%+2.36 +19.6 3
1995-07-30 @ Qarabag L 0-726.4 641 864 10.05% 16.71% 73.24%-2.36 -19.6 0
1995-07-30 MOIK Baku W 4-133.5 990 815 69.85% 17.43% 12.72%+1.99 +9.5 3
1995-07-30 @ Turan Tovuz L 1-433.5 815 990 12.72% 17.43% 69.85%-1.99 -9.5 0
1995-08-02 Masalli L 1-250.3 757 752 53.13% 19.14% 27.73%+0.70 -13.7 0
1995-08-02 @ Baku Fahlasi W 2-150.3 752 757 27.73% 19.14% 53.13%-0.70 +13.7 3
1995-08-02 MOIK Baku W 2-035.1 850 806 57.81% 18.87% 23.32%+1.01 +13.6 6
1995-08-02 @ Khazri Buzovna L 0-235.1 806 850 23.32% 18.87% 57.81%-1.01 -13.6 0
1995-08-02 Neftchi Baku L 0-138.5 790 980 27.23% 19.12% 53.66%-0.77 -8.3 0
1995-08-02 @ Shamkir W 1-038.5 980 790 53.66% 19.12% 27.23%+0.77 +8.3 3
1995-08-02 Kapaz D 3-362.1 999 1040 47.32% 19.34% 33.34%+0.36 -0.5 4
1995-08-02 @ Turan Tovuz D 3-362.1 1040 999 33.34% 19.34% 47.32%-0.36 +0.5 4
1995-08-20 Pambiqci Neftcala W 2-032.2 766 621 67.44% 17.83% 14.73%+1.76 +8.9 6
1995-08-20 @ Masalli L 0-232.2 621 766 14.73% 17.83% 67.44%-1.76 -8.9 0
1995-08-20 Turan Tovuz W 3-141.2 988 999 51.24% 19.22% 29.54%+0.59 +14.5 6
1995-08-20 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-341.2 999 988 29.54% 19.22% 51.24%-0.59 -14.5 4
1995-08-20 Shamkir W 2-033.3 884 782 63.73% 18.33% 17.94%+1.44 +10.7 6
1995-08-20 @ Qarabag L 0-233.3 782 884 17.94% 18.33% 63.73%-1.44 -10.7 0
1995-08-27 Neftchi Baku D 0-051.0 1040 1003 56.96% 18.93% 24.12%+0.95 -2.3 5
1995-08-27 @ Kapaz D 0-051.0 1003 1040 24.12% 18.93% 56.96%-0.95 +2.3 7
1995-08-27 Baku Fahlasi L 0-147.8 792 743 58.26% 18.84% 22.90%+1.04 -15.9 0
1995-08-27 @ MOIK Baku W 1-047.8 743 792 22.90% 18.84% 58.26%-1.04 +15.8 3
1995-08-27 Kur-Nur D 1-154.2 771 860 40.51% 19.41% 40.07%-0.01 -0.0 1
1995-08-27 @ Shamkir D 1-154.2 860 771 40.07% 19.41% 40.51%+0.01 +0.0 1
1995-08-30 MOIK Baku W 7-230.4 1038 776 75.58% 16.09% 8.32%+2.65 +8.2 8
1995-08-30 @ Kapaz L 2-730.4 776 1038 8.32% 16.09% 75.58%-2.65 -8.2 0
1995-08-30 Baku Fahlasi W 2-033.2 864 759 63.97% 18.30% 17.73%+1.46 +10.6 9
1995-08-30 @ Khazri Buzovna L 0-233.2 759 864 17.73% 18.30% 63.97%-1.46 -10.6 3
1995-09-03 Kur-Nur L 1-338.5 612 860 21.17% 18.69% 60.15%-1.21 -10.8 0
1995-09-03 @ Pambiqci Neftcala W 3-138.5 860 612 60.15% 18.69% 21.17%+1.21 +10.8 4
1995-09-10 Pambiqci Neftcala W 2-138.3 748 602 67.63% 17.80% 14.57%+1.78 +4.4 6
1995-09-10 @ Baku Fahlasi L 1-238.3 602 748 14.57% 17.80% 67.63%-1.78 -4.4 0
1995-09-10 Shamkir W 3-140.7 775 771 53.00% 19.15% 27.85%+0.70 +13.8 9
1995-09-10 @ Masalli L 1-340.7 771 775 27.85% 19.15% 53.00%-0.70 -13.8 1
1995-09-10 Turan Tovuz L 1-245.5 871 984 37.05% 19.40% 43.55%-0.19 -10.1 4
1995-09-10 @ Kur-Nur W 2-145.5 984 871 43.55% 19.40% 37.05%+0.19 +10.1 7
1995-09-10 MOIK Baku W 5-130.4 1005 768 74.13% 16.49% 9.38%+2.46 +9.0 10
1995-09-10 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-530.4 768 1005 9.38% 16.49% 74.13%-2.46 -9.0 0
1995-09-10 Kapaz W 3-040.8 895 1046 32.01% 19.30% 48.68%-0.48 +36.9 9
1995-09-10 @ Qarabag L 0-340.8 1046 895 48.68% 19.30% 32.01%+0.48 -36.9 8
1995-09-13 Baku Fahlasi W 3-243.4 861 753 64.25% 18.27% 17.48%+1.48 +5.0 7
1995-09-13 @ Kur-Nur L 2-343.4 753 861 17.48% 18.27% 64.25%-1.48 -5.0 6
1995-09-13 Khazri Buzovna L 0-135.7 597 875 18.47% 18.40% 63.13%-1.43 -5.8 0
1995-09-13 @ Pambiqci Neftcala W 1-035.7 875 597 63.13% 18.40% 18.47%+1.43 +5.9 12
1995-09-17 Kur-Nur W 7-130.3 1009 866 67.36% 17.85% 14.80%+1.75 +20.5 11
1995-09-17 @ Kapaz L 1-730.3 866 1009 14.80% 17.85% 67.36%-1.75 -20.5 7
1995-09-17 Pambiqci Neftcala W 1-033.9 759 591 69.28% 17.53% 13.19%+1.93 +4.2 3
1995-09-17 @ MOIK Baku L 0-133.9 591 759 13.19% 17.53% 69.28%-1.93 -4.2 0
1995-09-17 Qarabag D 2-258.7 1014 932 61.81% 18.53% 19.66%+1.29 -2.0 11
1995-09-17 @ Neftchi Baku D 2-258.7 932 1014 19.66% 18.53% 61.81%-1.29 +2.0 10
1995-09-17 Khazri Buzovna L 0-141.2 757 880 35.70% 19.38% 44.92%-0.27 -10.4 1
1995-09-17 @ Shamkir W 1-041.2 880 757 44.92% 19.38% 35.70%+0.27 +10.4 15
1995-09-17 Masalli W 2-030.8 994 788 72.08% 16.98% 10.94%+2.23 +6.6 10
1995-09-17 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-230.8 788 994 10.94% 16.98% 72.08%-2.23 -6.6 9
1995-09-24 Turan Tovuz FW48.7 891 1001 37.50% 19.40% 43.10%-0.17 +0.0 18
1995-09-24 @ Khazri Buzovna FL48.7 1001 891 43.10% 19.40% 37.50%+0.17 +0.0 10
1995-09-24 Shamkir D 1-154.3 748 747 52.67% 19.16% 28.17%+0.68 -1.5 7
1995-09-24 @ Baku Fahlasi D 1-154.3 747 748 28.17% 19.16% 52.67%-0.68 +1.5 2
1995-09-24 Kapaz D 1-154.5 782 1029 21.14% 18.68% 60.17%-1.21 +2.5 10
1995-09-24 @ Masalli D 1-154.5 1029 782 60.17% 18.68% 21.14%+1.21 -2.5 12
1995-09-24 MOIK Baku W 3-029.5 934 763 69.52% 17.49% 12.99%+1.96 +11.4 13
1995-09-24 @ Qarabag L 0-329.5 763 934 12.99% 17.49% 69.52%-1.96 -11.4 3
1995-10-01 Khazri Buzovna W 2-138.5 1027 891 66.76% 17.94% 15.31%+1.70 +4.6 15
1995-10-01 @ Kapaz L 1-238.5 891 1027 15.31% 17.94% 66.76%-1.70 -4.6 18
1995-10-01 Masalli W 5-026.2 1012 784 73.53% 16.64% 9.83%+2.39 +14.0 14
1995-10-01 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-526.2 784 1012 9.83% 16.64% 73.53%-2.39 -14.0 10
1995-10-01 Kur-Nur W 2-033.3 945 845 63.50% 18.35% 18.14%+1.42 +10.8 16
1995-10-01 @ Qarabag L 0-233.3 845 945 18.14% 18.35% 63.50%-1.42 -10.8 7
1995-10-01 Pambiqci Neftcala D 0-051.4 748 587 68.79% 17.62% 13.60%+1.89 -4.1 3
1995-10-01 @ Shamkir D 0-051.4 587 748 13.60% 17.62% 68.79%-1.89 +4.1 1
1995-10-01 Baku Fahlasi W 2-029.8 1001 746 75.18% 16.21% 8.61%+2.60 +5.2 13
1995-10-01 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-229.8 746 1001 8.61% 16.21% 75.18%-2.60 -5.2 7
1995-10-15 Kapaz W 1-049.4 741 1032 17.36% 18.25% 64.39%-1.53 +17.5 10
1995-10-15 @ Baku Fahlasi L 0-149.4 1032 741 64.39% 18.25% 17.36%+1.53 -17.4 15
1995-10-15 Neftchi Baku D 0-050.8 886 1026 33.45% 19.34% 47.21%-0.39 +0.9 19
1995-10-15 @ Khazri Buzovna D 0-050.8 1026 886 47.21% 19.34% 33.45%+0.39 -0.9 15
1995-10-15 Qarabag L 0-138.7 770 956 27.76% 19.14% 53.10%-0.74 -8.4 10
1995-10-15 @ Masalli W 1-038.7 956 770 53.10% 19.14% 27.76%+0.74 +8.4 19
1995-10-15 MOIK Baku W 5-344.0 834 752 61.81% 18.53% 19.66%+1.29 +8.5 10
1995-10-15 @ Kur-Nur L 3-544.0 752 834 19.66% 18.53% 61.81%-1.29 -8.5 3
1995-10-15 Turan Tovuz L 1-432.3 591 1006 9.55% 16.55% 73.90%-2.47 -7.1 1
1995-10-15 @ Pambiqci Neftcala W 4-132.3 1006 591 73.90% 16.55% 9.55%+2.47 +7.1 16
1995-10-22 Pambiqci Neftcala W 10-124.9 1014 584 83.36% 13.07% 3.57%+3.92 +6.9 18
1995-10-22 @ Kapaz L 1-1024.9 584 1014 3.57% 13.07% 83.36%-3.92 -6.9 1
1995-10-22 Masalli W 5-029.8 843 762 61.64% 18.55% 19.81%+1.28 +27.5 13
1995-10-22 @ Kur-Nur L 0-529.8 762 843 19.81% 18.55% 61.64%-1.28 -27.5 10
1995-10-22 Shamkir L 0-243.9 743 744 52.42% 19.17% 28.41%+0.66 -27.1 3
1995-10-22 @ MOIK Baku W 2-043.9 744 743 28.41% 19.17% 52.42%-0.66 +27.1 6
1995-10-22 Baku Fahlasi W 4-237.5 1025 758 75.87% 16.01% 8.12%+2.69 +3.8 18
1995-10-22 @ Neftchi Baku L 2-437.5 758 1025 8.12% 16.01% 75.87%-2.69 -3.8 10
1995-10-22 Khazri Buzovna D 1-154.5 964 887 61.27% 18.58% 20.14%+1.25 -2.7 20
1995-10-22 @ Qarabag D 1-154.5 887 964 20.14% 18.58% 61.27%-1.25 +2.7 20
1995-10-24 Neftchi Baku L 0-434.1 870 1029 31.04% 19.27% 49.68%-0.53 -33.1 13
1995-10-24 @ Kur-Nur W 4-034.1 1029 870 49.68% 19.27% 31.04%+0.53 +33.1 21
1995-11-01 Qarabag W 3-032.8 1013 962 58.57% 18.81% 22.62%+1.06 +19.2 19
1995-11-01 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-332.8 962 1013 22.62% 18.81% 58.57%-1.06 -19.2 20
1995-11-05 Kur-Nur D 1-154.2 755 837 41.44% 19.41% 39.15%+0.04 -0.1 11
1995-11-05 @ Baku Fahlasi D 1-154.2 837 755 39.15% 19.41% 41.44%-0.04 +0.1 14
1995-11-05 Masalli W 1-034.1 890 734 68.33% 17.69% 13.97%+1.84 +4.5 23
1995-11-05 @ Khazri Buzovna L 0-134.1 734 890 13.97% 17.69% 68.33%-1.84 -4.5 10
1995-11-05 Turan Tovuz L 0-134.6 716 1033 15.36% 17.95% 66.69%-1.73 -4.9 3
1995-11-05 @ MOIK Baku W 1-034.6 1033 716 66.69% 17.95% 15.36%+1.73 +4.9 22
1995-11-05 Qarabag L 1-433.3 577 942 12.17% 17.30% 70.53%-2.10 -9.0 1
1995-11-05 @ Pambiqci Neftcala W 4-133.3 942 577 70.53% 17.30% 12.17%+2.10 +9.0 23
1995-11-05 Kapaz L 0-234.3 771 1021 20.94% 18.67% 60.39%-1.22 -12.4 6
1995-11-05 @ Shamkir W 2-034.3 1021 771 60.39% 18.67% 20.94%+1.22 +12.4 21
1995-11-08 Qarabag L 0-236.0 755 952 26.45% 19.07% 54.48%-0.82 -15.2 11
1995-11-08 @ Baku Fahlasi W 2-036.0 952 755 54.48% 19.07% 26.45%+0.82 +15.2 26
1995-11-08 Kur-Nur W 3-032.6 894 837 59.14% 18.77% 22.09%+1.10 +18.9 26
1995-11-08 @ Khazri Buzovna L 0-332.6 837 894 22.09% 18.77% 59.14%-1.10 -18.9 14
1995-11-08 MOIK Baku W 2-035.9 730 711 54.83% 19.06% 26.12%+0.81 +15.1 13
1995-11-08 @ Masalli L 0-235.9 711 730 26.12% 19.06% 54.83%-0.81 -15.1 3
1995-11-08 Neftchi Baku L 1-430.9 568 1062 6.46% 15.22% 78.33%-3.07 -4.7 1
1995-11-08 @ Pambiqci Neftcala W 4-130.9 1062 568 78.33% 15.22% 6.46%+3.07 +4.7 24
1995-11-08 Turan Tovuz L 0-233.4 759 1037 18.35% 18.38% 63.27%-1.44 -11.0 6
1995-11-08 @ Shamkir W 2-033.4 1037 759 63.27% 18.38% 18.35%+1.44 +11.0 25
1995-11-19 Turan Tovuz W 2-037.2 1033 1048 50.64% 19.24% 30.12%+0.55 +17.0 24
1995-11-19 @ Kapaz L 0-237.2 1048 1033 30.12% 19.24% 50.64%-0.55 -17.0 25
1995-11-19 Baku Fahlasi W 5-241.5 745 739 53.24% 19.14% 27.63%+0.71 +16.8 16
1995-11-19 @ Masalli L 2-541.5 739 745 27.63% 19.14% 53.24%-0.71 -16.8 11
1995-11-19 Pambiqci Neftcala W 5-340.0 818 563 75.19% 16.20% 8.60%+2.60 +3.8 17
1995-11-19 @ Kur-Nur L 3-540.0 563 818 8.60% 16.20% 75.19%-2.60 -3.8 1
1995-11-19 Khazri Buzovna L 1-241.5 696 913 24.25% 18.94% 56.82%-0.98 -7.0 3
1995-11-19 @ MOIK Baku W 2-141.5 913 696 56.82% 18.94% 24.25%+0.98 +7.0 29
1995-11-19 Shamkir W 4-130.9 1067 748 78.63% 15.11% 6.26%+3.08 +4.6 27
1995-11-19 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-430.9 748 1067 6.26% 15.11% 78.63%-3.08 -4.6 6
1995-11-26 Khazri Buzovna L 1-340.2 723 920 26.38% 19.07% 54.55%-0.83 -13.1 11
1995-11-26 @ Baku Fahlasi W 3-140.2 920 723 54.55% 19.07% 26.38%+0.83 +13.1 32
1995-11-26 Kapaz L 0-427.9 689 1050 12.39% 17.35% 70.26%-2.07 -14.3 3
1995-11-26 @ MOIK Baku W 4-027.9 1050 689 70.26% 17.35% 12.39%+2.07 +14.3 27
1995-11-26 Masalli W 2-044.6 560 762 25.88% 19.04% 55.08%-0.86 +28.4 4
1995-11-26 @ Pambiqci Neftcala L 0-244.6 762 560 55.08% 19.04% 25.88%+0.86 -28.4 16
1995-11-26 Qarabag L 1-241.3 743 967 23.57% 18.89% 57.54%-1.02 -6.9 6
1995-11-26 @ Shamkir W 2-141.3 967 743 57.54% 18.89% 23.57%+1.02 +6.9 29
1995-11-26 Neftchi Baku W 1-040.5 1031 1071 47.35% 19.34% 33.31%+0.36 +9.8 28
1995-11-26 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-140.5 1071 1031 33.31% 19.34% 47.35%-0.36 -9.8 27
1995-12-03 Pambiqci Neftcala FW50.1 933 588 79.88% 14.63% 5.49%+3.28 +0.0 35
1995-12-03 @ Khazri Buzovna FL50.1 588 933 5.49% 14.63% 79.88%-3.28 +0.0 4
1995-12-03 Shamkir FW49.0 822 736 62.13% 18.50% 19.37%+1.32 +0.0 20
1995-12-03 @ Kur-Nur FL49.0 736 822 19.37% 18.50% 62.13%-1.32 +0.0 6
1995-12-03 MOIK Baku W 2-141.6 709 675 56.68% 18.95% 24.38%+0.93 +7.1 14
1995-12-03 @ Baku Fahlasi L 1-241.6 675 709 24.38% 18.95% 56.68%-0.93 -7.1 3
1995-12-03 Kapaz W 3-247.0 1062 1065 52.16% 19.18% 28.66%+0.64 +7.7 30
1995-12-03 @ Neftchi Baku L 2-347.0 1065 1062 28.66% 19.18% 52.16%-0.64 -7.7 27
1995-12-03 Turan Tovuz W 2-039.3 974 1041 43.55% 19.40% 37.05%+0.16 +20.2 32
1995-12-03 @ Qarabag L 0-239.3 1041 974 37.05% 19.40% 43.55%-0.16 -20.2 28
1995-12-10 Qarabag W 3-138.6 1057 994 59.81% 18.72% 21.48%+1.14 +11.0 30
1995-12-10 @ Kapaz L 1-338.6 994 1057 21.48% 18.72% 59.81%-1.14 -11.0 32
1995-12-10 Neftchi Baku W 2-155.5 668 1069 10.19% 16.75% 73.06%-2.37 +18.6 6
1995-12-10 @ MOIK Baku L 1-255.5 1069 668 73.06% 16.75% 10.19%+2.37 -18.6 30
1995-12-10 Baku Fahlasi L 0-140.9 588 716 35.00% 19.37% 45.63%-0.30 -10.2 4
1995-12-10 @ Pambiqci Neftcala W 1-040.9 716 588 45.63% 19.37% 35.00%+0.30 +10.2 17
1995-12-10 Masalli L 2-354.3 736 733 52.92% 19.15% 27.93%+0.69 -13.0 6
1995-12-10 @ Shamkir W 3-254.3 733 736 27.93% 19.15% 52.92%-0.69 +13.0 19
1995-12-10 Kur-Nur W 4-238.7 1021 822 71.58% 17.09% 11.34%+2.17 +5.3 31
1995-12-10 @ Turan Tovuz L 2-438.7 822 1021 11.34% 17.09% 71.58%-2.17 -5.3 20
1995-12-17 Shamkir FW49.5 933 723 72.34% 16.92% 10.74%+2.26 +0.0 38
1995-12-17 @ Khazri Buzovna FL49.5 723 933 10.74% 16.92% 72.34%-2.26 +0.0 6
1995-12-17 Turan Tovuz L 2-636.0 746 1026 18.23% 18.37% 63.40%-1.45 -14.6 19
1995-12-17 @ Masalli W 6-236.0 1026 746 63.40% 18.37% 18.23%+1.45 +14.6 34
1995-12-17 Kapaz L 0-530.1 817 1068 20.84% 18.65% 60.51%-1.23 -28.8 20
1995-12-17 @ Kur-Nur W 5-030.1 1068 817 60.51% 18.65% 20.84%+1.23 +28.8 33
1995-12-17 MOIK Baku W 2-041.1 578 686 37.76% 19.40% 42.84%-0.15 +22.8 7
1995-12-17 @ Pambiqci Neftcala L 0-241.1 686 578 42.84% 19.40% 37.76%+0.15 -22.8 6
1996-02-11 Masalli W 4-024.7 1097 732 80.76% 14.27% 4.97%+3.43 +5.6 36
1996-02-11 @ Kapaz L 0-424.7 732 1097 4.97% 14.27% 80.76%-3.43 -5.6 19
1996-02-11 Qarabag W 1-050.1 663 983 15.15% 17.91% 66.94%-1.75 +18.1 9
1996-02-11 @ MOIK Baku L 0-150.1 983 663 66.94% 17.91% 15.15%+1.75 -18.1 32
1996-02-11 Kur-Nur W 1-031.9 1051 788 75.64% 16.08% 8.28%+2.66 +2.7 33
1996-02-11 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-131.9 788 1051 8.28% 16.08% 75.64%-2.66 -2.7 20
1996-02-11 Baku Fahlasi W 1-039.0 723 727 52.13% 19.18% 28.68%+0.64 +8.7 9
1996-02-11 @ Shamkir L 0-139.0 727 723 28.68% 19.18% 52.13%-0.64 -8.7 17
1996-02-11 Khazri Buzovna D 1-154.6 1041 933 64.23% 18.27% 17.50%+1.48 -3.1 35
1996-02-11 @ Turan Tovuz D 1-154.6 933 1041 17.50% 18.27% 64.23%-1.48 +3.1 39
1996-02-18 Turan Tovuz W 1-050.1 718 1038 15.12% 17.90% 66.97%-1.75 +18.1 20
1996-02-18 @ Baku Fahlasi L 0-150.1 1038 718 66.97% 17.90% 15.12%+1.75 -18.1 35
1996-02-18 Kapaz D 0-050.9 936 1102 30.14% 19.24% 50.62%-0.59 +1.4 40
1996-02-18 @ Khazri Buzovna D 0-050.9 1102 936 50.62% 19.24% 30.14%+0.59 -1.4 37
1996-02-18 Qarabag D 0-050.9 786 965 28.52% 19.18% 52.30%-0.69 +1.7 21
1996-02-18 @ Kur-Nur D 0-050.9 965 786 52.30% 19.18% 28.52%+0.69 -1.6 33
1996-02-18 Shamkir L 0-336.6 601 732 34.58% 19.36% 46.06%-0.33 -27.8 7
1996-02-18 @ Pambiqci Neftcala W 3-036.6 732 601 46.06% 19.36% 34.58%+0.33 +27.8 12
1996-02-21 Neftchi Baku D 1-154.7 736 1053 15.31% 17.94% 66.75%-1.73 +3.4 21
1996-02-21 @ Baku Fahlasi D 1-154.7 1053 736 66.75% 17.94% 15.31%+1.73 -3.4 34
1996-02-25 Baku Fahlasi W 4-130.3 1101 740 80.59% 14.34% 5.06%+3.40 +3.7 40
1996-02-25 @ Kapaz L 1-430.3 740 1101 5.06% 14.34% 80.59%-3.40 -3.7 21
1996-02-25 Kur-Nur W 1-043.2 682 787 38.15% 19.41% 42.45%-0.13 +12.0 12
1996-02-25 @ MOIK Baku L 0-143.2 787 682 42.45% 19.41% 38.15%+0.13 -12.0 21
1996-02-25 Masalli W 3-134.3 963 726 74.10% 16.50% 9.40%+2.46 +4.9 36
1996-02-25 @ Qarabag L 1-334.3 726 963 9.40% 16.50% 74.10%-2.46 -4.9 19
1996-02-25 Pambiqci Neftcala W 3-131.4 1020 573 83.97% 12.75% 3.28%+4.05 +1.6 38
1996-02-25 @ Turan Tovuz L 1-331.4 573 1020 3.28% 12.75% 83.97%-4.05 -1.6 7
1996-02-28 Pambiqci Neftcala D 0-053.0 1050 571 85.06% 12.16% 2.78%+4.29 -6.1 35
1996-02-28 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-053.0 571 1050 2.78% 12.16% 85.06%-4.29 +6.1 8
1996-03-03 Qarabag W 1-040.0 938 968 48.65% 19.30% 32.05%+0.44 +9.5 43
1996-03-03 @ Khazri Buzovna L 0-140.0 968 938 32.05% 19.30% 48.65%-0.44 -9.5 36
1996-03-03 Kur-Nur L 0-438.4 721 775 45.45% 19.37% 35.18%+0.26 -45.4 19
1996-03-03 @ Masalli W 4-038.4 775 721 35.18% 19.37% 45.45%-0.26 +45.4 24
1996-03-03 Kapaz L 2-1026.5 577 1105 5.47% 14.62% 79.91%-3.32 -8.0 8
1996-03-03 @ Pambiqci Neftcala W 10-226.5 1105 577 79.91% 14.62% 5.47%+3.32 +8.0 43
1996-03-03 MOIK Baku D 1-154.4 760 694 60.14% 18.69% 21.17%+1.17 -2.5 13
1996-03-03 @ Shamkir D 1-154.4 694 760 21.17% 18.69% 60.14%-1.17 +2.5 13
1996-03-06 Neftchi Baku D 1-154.2 959 1044 41.04% 19.41% 39.55%+0.02 -0.1 37
1996-03-06 @ Qarabag D 1-154.2 1044 959 39.55% 19.41% 41.04%-0.02 +0.1 36
1996-03-10 Khazri Buzovna D 1-154.2 821 947 35.24% 19.37% 45.39%-0.29 +0.6 25
1996-03-10 @ Kur-Nur D 1-154.2 947 821 45.39% 19.37% 35.24%+0.29 -0.6 44
1996-03-10 Masalli W 2-035.9 696 676 54.99% 19.05% 25.96%+0.82 +15.0 16
1996-03-10 @ MOIK Baku L 0-235.9 676 696 25.96% 19.05% 54.99%-0.82 -15.0 19
1996-03-10 Baku Fahlasi W 2-030.4 958 736 73.18% 16.72% 10.09%+2.35 +6.1 40
1996-03-10 @ Qarabag L 0-230.4 736 958 10.09% 16.72% 73.18%-2.35 -6.1 21
1996-03-13 Neftchi Baku L 1-335.0 661 1044 11.15% 17.04% 71.81%-2.23 -5.9 19
1996-03-13 @ Masalli W 3-135.0 1044 661 71.81% 17.04% 11.15%+2.23 +5.9 39
1996-03-17 Khazri Buzovna L 0-149.3 1050 947 63.81% 18.32% 17.87%+1.45 -17.3 39
1996-03-17 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-049.3 947 1050 17.87% 18.32% 63.81%-1.45 +17.3 47
1996-03-17 Shamkir W 2-135.9 1021 757 75.72% 16.05% 8.23%+2.67 +2.5 41
1996-03-17 @ Turan Tovuz L 1-235.9 757 1021 8.23% 16.05% 75.72%-2.67 -2.5 13

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1996-03-30 Shamkir D 0-050.8 655 755 38.96% 19.41% 41.63%-0.09 +0.2 1
1996-03-30 @ Masalli D 0-050.8 755 655 41.63% 19.41% 38.96%+0.09 -0.2 1
1996-03-31 Kapaz W 1-049.5 821 1112 17.31% 18.24% 64.45%-1.54 +17.5 3
1996-03-31 @ Kur-Nur L 0-149.5 1112 821 64.45% 18.24% 17.31%+1.54 -17.5 0
1996-03-31 Khazri Buzovna W 4-033.2 965 964 52.62% 19.16% 28.22%+0.67 +30.5 3
1996-03-31 @ Qarabag L 0-433.2 964 965 28.22% 19.16% 52.62%-0.67 -30.5 0
1996-03-31 Neftchi Baku L 1-347.8 1024 1033 51.45% 19.21% 29.34%+0.60 -23.1 0
1996-03-31 @ Turan Tovuz W 3-147.8 1033 1024 29.34% 19.21% 51.45%-0.60 +23.1 3
1996-04-04 Neftchi Baku D 0-050.8 933 1056 35.84% 19.38% 44.78%-0.26 +0.6 1
1996-04-04 @ Khazri Buzovna D 0-050.8 1056 933 44.78% 19.38% 35.84%+0.26 -0.6 4
1996-04-05 Turan Tovuz L 0-149.1 1095 1001 62.95% 18.42% 18.64%+1.38 -17.1 0
1996-04-05 @ Kapaz W 1-049.1 1001 1095 18.64% 18.42% 62.95%-1.38 +17.1 3
1996-04-06 Pambiqci Neftcala W 3-030.2 711 569 67.21% 17.87% 14.92%+1.74 +13.1 3
1996-04-06 @ MOIK Baku L 0-330.2 569 711 14.92% 17.87% 67.21%-1.74 -13.1 0
1996-04-06 MOIK Baku W 2-035.5 755 724 56.21% 18.98% 24.82%+0.90 +14.4 4
1996-04-06 @ Shamkir L 0-235.5 724 755 24.82% 18.98% 56.21%-0.90 -14.4 3
1996-04-13 Baku Fahlasi D 0-050.9 710 730 49.99% 19.26% 30.75%+0.52 -1.3 4
1996-04-13 @ MOIK Baku D 0-050.9 730 710 30.75% 19.26% 49.99%-0.52 +1.3 1
1996-04-13 Shamkir L 0-137.7 556 769 24.70% 18.97% 56.33%-0.94 -7.6 0
1996-04-13 @ Pambiqci Neftcala W 1-037.7 769 556 56.33% 18.97% 24.70%+0.94 +7.6 7
1996-04-13 Qarabag W 1-038.1 1018 995 55.29% 19.03% 25.68%+0.84 +7.9 6
1996-04-13 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-138.1 995 1018 25.68% 19.03% 55.29%-0.84 -7.9 3
1996-04-14 Khazri Buzovna L 0-142.3 839 934 39.61% 19.41% 40.98%-0.05 -11.3 3
1996-04-14 @ Kur-Nur W 1-042.3 934 839 40.98% 19.41% 39.61%+0.05 +11.3 4
1996-04-14 Kapaz L 2-353.3 1055 1078 49.63% 19.28% 31.10%+0.49 -12.2 4
1996-04-14 @ Neftchi Baku W 3-253.3 1078 1055 31.10% 19.28% 49.63%-0.49 +12.2 3
1996-04-20 Pambiqci Neftcala W 6-338.1 731 549 70.41% 17.32% 12.27%+2.05 +7.3 4
1996-04-20 @ Baku Fahlasi L 3-638.1 549 731 12.27% 17.32% 70.41%-2.05 -7.3 0
1996-04-20 MOIK Baku W 1-041.0 655 708 45.56% 19.37% 35.07%+0.26 +10.2 4
1996-04-20 @ Masalli L 0-141.0 708 655 35.07% 19.37% 45.56%-0.26 -10.2 4
1996-04-27 Masalli W 4-143.8 541 665 35.60% 19.38% 45.02%-0.27 +29.1 3
1996-04-27 @ Pambiqci Neftcala L 1-443.8 665 541 45.02% 19.38% 35.60%+0.27 -29.1 4
1996-04-27 Baku Fahlasi L 0-147.4 777 738 57.08% 18.92% 24.00%+0.96 -15.6 7
1996-04-27 @ Shamkir W 1-047.4 738 777 24.00% 18.92% 57.08%-0.96 +15.6 7
1996-04-29 Kapaz D 0-050.9 945 1090 32.82% 19.32% 47.86%-0.43 +1.0 5
1996-04-29 @ Khazri Buzovna D 0-050.9 1090 945 47.86% 19.32% 32.82%+0.43 -1.0 4
1996-04-29 Turan Tovuz L 0-138.2 827 1026 26.29% 19.07% 54.64%-0.83 -8.0 3
1996-04-29 @ Kur-Nur W 1-038.2 1026 827 54.64% 19.07% 26.29%+0.83 +8.0 9
1996-04-29 Neftchi Baku L 1-248.0 987 1043 45.23% 19.38% 35.39%+0.25 -11.9 3
1996-04-29 @ Qarabag W 2-148.0 1043 987 35.39% 19.38% 45.23%-0.25 +11.9 7
1996-05-04 MOIK Baku L 1-342.9 570 698 35.10% 19.37% 45.53%-0.30 -16.8 3
1996-05-04 @ Pambiqci Neftcala W 3-142.9 698 570 45.53% 19.37% 35.10%+0.30 +16.8 7
1996-05-04 Masalli W 9-231.3 761 636 65.77% 18.07% 16.16%+1.61 +21.1 10
1996-05-04 @ Shamkir L 2-931.3 636 761 16.16% 18.07% 65.77%-1.61 -21.1 4
1996-05-05 Qarabag D 0-051.2 1089 975 64.79% 18.20% 17.01%+1.53 -3.5 5
1996-05-05 @ Kapaz D 0-051.2 975 1089 17.01% 18.20% 64.79%-1.53 +3.5 4
1996-05-05 Kur-Nur W 2-136.4 1055 819 74.01% 16.52% 9.47%+2.45 +2.9 10
1996-05-05 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-236.4 819 1055 9.47% 16.52% 74.01%-2.45 -2.9 3
1996-05-05 Khazri Buzovna D 0-051.1 1034 946 62.29% 18.49% 19.23%+1.33 -3.1 10
1996-05-05 @ Turan Tovuz D 0-051.1 946 1034 19.23% 18.49% 62.29%-1.33 +3.1 6
1996-05-08 Kur-Nur D 2-258.9 979 816 68.89% 17.60% 13.51%+1.90 -2.7 5
1996-05-08 @ Qarabag D 2-258.9 816 979 13.51% 17.60% 68.89%-1.90 +2.7 4
1996-05-11 Baku Fahlasi W 2-148.5 615 754 33.62% 19.34% 47.04%-0.38 +12.3 7
1996-05-11 @ Masalli L 1-248.5 754 615 47.04% 19.34% 33.62%+0.38 -12.3 7
1996-05-11 Shamkir W 2-039.3 715 782 43.59% 19.40% 37.02%+0.16 +20.2 10
1996-05-11 @ MOIK Baku L 0-239.3 782 715 37.02% 19.40% 43.59%-0.16 -20.2 10
1996-05-12 Kur-Nur W 2-029.6 1086 819 75.86% 16.01% 8.13%+2.68 +4.9 8
1996-05-12 @ Kapaz L 0-229.6 819 1086 8.13% 16.01% 75.86%-2.68 -4.9 4
1996-05-12 Qarabag D 2-258.4 949 976 49.14% 19.29% 31.57%+0.47 -0.8 7
1996-05-12 @ Khazri Buzovna D 2-258.4 976 949 31.57% 19.29% 49.14%-0.47 +0.8 6
1996-05-12 Turan Tovuz W 2-141.9 1058 1031 55.79% 19.00% 25.21%+0.87 +7.3 13
1996-05-12 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-241.9 1031 1058 25.21% 19.00% 55.79%-0.87 -7.3 10
1996-05-18 MOIK Baku W 2-036.4 742 735 53.35% 19.13% 27.52%+0.72 +15.8 10
1996-05-18 @ Baku Fahlasi L 0-236.4 735 742 27.52% 19.13% 53.35%-0.72 -15.8 10
1996-05-18 Pambiqci Neftcala W 8-230.1 762 554 72.24% 16.94% 10.82%+2.24 +12.5 13
1996-05-18 @ Shamkir L 2-830.1 554 762 10.82% 16.94% 72.24%-2.24 -12.5 3
1996-05-19 Qarabag D 1-154.3 814 977 30.55% 19.26% 50.19%-0.56 +1.2 5
1996-05-19 @ Kur-Nur D 1-154.3 977 814 50.19% 19.26% 30.55%+0.56 -1.2 7
1996-05-19 Khazri Buzovna W 1-035.1 1065 949 65.01% 18.17% 16.82%+1.55 +5.4 16
1996-05-19 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-135.1 949 1065 16.82% 18.17% 65.01%-1.55 -5.4 7
1996-05-19 Kapaz W 2-145.5 1023 1091 43.61% 19.40% 36.99%+0.16 +10.1 13
1996-05-19 @ Turan Tovuz L 1-245.5 1091 1023 36.99% 19.40% 43.61%-0.16 -10.1 8
1996-05-22 Kur-Nur W 2-138.8 943 815 66.04% 18.04% 15.93%+1.63 +4.8 10
1996-05-22 @ Khazri Buzovna L 1-238.8 815 943 15.93% 18.04% 66.04%-1.63 -4.8 5
1996-05-25 Masalli W 1-035.8 719 628 62.71% 18.44% 18.84%+1.36 +5.9 13
1996-05-25 @ MOIK Baku L 0-135.8 628 719 18.84% 18.44% 62.71%-1.36 -5.9 7
1996-05-25 Baku Fahlasi W 2-045.1 541 757 24.34% 18.94% 56.72%-0.97 +29.1 6
1996-05-25 @ Pambiqci Neftcala L 0-245.1 757 541 56.72% 18.94% 24.34%+0.97 -29.2 10
1996-06-01 Shamkir W 3-036.4 728 775 46.51% 19.35% 34.14%+0.32 +27.5 13
1996-06-01 @ Baku Fahlasi L 0-336.4 775 728 34.14% 19.35% 46.51%-0.32 -27.5 13
1996-06-01 Pambiqci Neftcala W 3-139.0 622 570 58.52% 18.82% 22.66%+1.05 +11.5 10
1996-06-01 @ Masalli L 1-339.0 570 622 22.66% 18.82% 58.52%-1.05 -11.5 6
1996-06-06 Khazri Buzovna L 0-150.0 1080 948 66.43% 17.98% 15.59%+1.67 -18.0 8
1996-06-06 @ Kapaz W 1-050.0 948 1080 15.59% 17.98% 66.43%-1.67 +18.0 13
1996-06-06 Qarabag D 2-258.7 1070 976 62.98% 18.41% 18.60%+1.38 -2.2 17
1996-06-06 @ Neftchi Baku D 2-258.7 976 1070 18.60% 18.41% 62.98%-1.38 +2.1 8
1996-06-09 Neftchi Baku W 2-143.0 1062 1068 51.83% 19.20% 28.97%+0.62 +8.2 11
1996-06-09 @ Kapaz L 1-243.0 1068 1062 28.97% 19.20% 51.83%-0.62 -8.2 17
1996-06-12 Turan Tovuz W 4-141.4 966 1033 43.59% 19.40% 37.01%+0.16 +24.7 16
1996-06-12 @ Khazri Buzovna L 1-441.4 1033 966 37.01% 19.40% 43.59%-0.16 -24.7 13
1996-06-12 Neftchi Baku L 1-338.5 811 1060 21.00% 18.67% 60.32%-1.22 -10.7 5
1996-06-12 @ Kur-Nur W 3-138.5 1060 811 60.32% 18.67% 21.00%+1.22 +10.7 20
1996-06-12 Kapaz L 1-246.4 978 1071 39.96% 19.41% 40.63%-0.04 -10.8 8
1996-06-12 @ Qarabag W 2-146.4 1071 978 40.63% 19.41% 39.96%+0.04 +10.8 14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1995-12-10 10.19% @ MOIK Baku 668 2 Neftchi Baku 1069 1
2 1996-02-18 15.12% @ Baku Fahlasi 718 1 Turan Tovuz 1038 0
3 1996-02-11 15.15% @ MOIK Baku 663 1 Qarabag 983 0
4 1996-06-06 15.59% Khazri Buzovna 948 1 @ Kapaz 1080 0
5 1996-03-31 17.31% @ Kur-Nur 821 1 Kapaz 1112 0
6 1995-10-15 17.36% @ Baku Fahlasi 741 1 Kapaz 1032 0
7 1996-03-17 17.87% Khazri Buzovna 947 1 @ Neftchi Baku 1050 0
8 1996-04-05 18.64% Turan Tovuz 1001 1 @ Kapaz 1095 0
9 1995-08-27 22.90% Baku Fahlasi 743 1 @ MOIK Baku 792 0
10 1996-04-27 24.00% Baku Fahlasi 738 1 @ Shamkir 777 0
11 1996-05-25 24.34% @ Pambiqci Neftcala 541 2 Baku Fahlasi 757 0
12 1995-11-26 25.88% @ Pambiqci Neftcala 560 2 Masalli 762 0
13 1995-08-02 27.73% Masalli 752 2 @ Baku Fahlasi 757 1
14 1995-12-10 27.93% Masalli 733 3 @ Shamkir 736 2
15 1995-10-22 28.41% Shamkir 744 2 @ MOIK Baku 743 0
16 1996-03-31 29.34% Neftchi Baku 1033 3 @ Turan Tovuz 1024 1
17 1996-04-14 31.10% Kapaz 1078 3 @ Neftchi Baku 1055 2
18 1995-09-10 32.01% @ Qarabag 895 3 Kapaz 1046 0
19 1996-05-11 33.62% @ Masalli 615 2 Baku Fahlasi 754 1
20 1996-03-03 35.18% Kur-Nur 775 4 @ Masalli 721 0
21 1996-04-29 35.39% Neftchi Baku 1043 2 @ Qarabag 987 1
22 1996-04-27 35.60% @ Pambiqci Neftcala 541 4 Masalli 665 1
23 1995-12-17 37.76% @ Pambiqci Neftcala 578 2 MOIK Baku 686 0
24 1995-07-30 37.97% Khazri Buzovna 838 1 @ Masalli 764 0
25 1996-02-25 38.15% @ MOIK Baku 682 1 Kur-Nur 787 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-03-03 45.39 Kur-Nur 4 775 35.18% @ Masalli 0 721 45.45% 19.37%
2 1995-09-10 36.87 @ Qarabag 3 895 32.01% Kapaz 0 1046 48.68% 19.30%
3 1995-10-24 33.13 Neftchi Baku 4 1029 49.68% @ Kur-Nur 0 870 31.04% 19.27%
4 1996-03-31 30.54 @ Qarabag 4 965 52.62% Khazri Buzovna 0 964 28.22% 19.16%
5 1996-05-25 29.16 @ Pambiqci Neftcala 2 541 24.34% Baku Fahlasi 0 757 56.72% 18.94%
6 1996-04-27 29.06 @ Pambiqci Neftcala 4 541 35.60% Masalli 1 665 45.02% 19.38%
7 1995-12-17 28.79 Kapaz 5 1068 60.51% @ Kur-Nur 0 817 20.84% 18.65%
8 1995-11-26 28.37 @ Pambiqci Neftcala 2 560 25.88% Masalli 0 762 55.08% 19.04%
9 1996-02-18 27.75 Shamkir 3 732 46.06% @ Pambiqci Neftcala 0 601 34.58% 19.36%
10 1995-10-22 27.49 @ Kur-Nur 5 843 61.64% Masalli 0 762 19.81% 18.55%
11 1996-06-01 27.46 @ Baku Fahlasi 3 728 46.51% Shamkir 0 775 34.14% 19.35%
12 1995-10-22 27.12 Shamkir 2 744 28.41% @ MOIK Baku 0 743 52.42% 19.17%
13 1995-07-30 25.06 @ Kapaz 8 1014 71.63% Shamkir 0 815 11.29% 17.07%
14 1996-06-12 24.74 @ Khazri Buzovna 4 966 43.59% Turan Tovuz 1 1033 37.01% 19.40%
15 1996-03-31 23.09 Neftchi Baku 3 1033 29.34% @ Turan Tovuz 1 1024 51.45% 19.21%
16 1995-12-17 22.76 @ Pambiqci Neftcala 2 578 37.76% MOIK Baku 0 686 42.84% 19.40%
17 1996-05-04 21.13 @ Shamkir 9 761 65.77% Masalli 2 636 16.16% 18.07%
18 1995-09-17 20.48 @ Kapaz 7 1009 67.36% Kur-Nur 1 866 14.80% 17.85%
19 1995-12-03 20.22 @ Qarabag 2 974 43.55% Turan Tovuz 0 1041 37.05% 19.40%
20 1996-05-11 20.21 @ MOIK Baku 2 715 43.59% Shamkir 0 782 37.02% 19.40%
21 1995-07-30 19.62 @ Qarabag 7 864 73.24% Pambiqci Neftcala 0 641 10.05% 16.71%
22 1995-11-01 19.25 @ Turan Tovuz 3 1013 58.57% Qarabag 0 962 22.62% 18.81%
23 1995-11-08 18.85 @ Khazri Buzovna 3 894 59.14% Kur-Nur 0 837 22.09% 18.77%
24 1995-12-10 18.56 @ MOIK Baku 2 668 10.19% Neftchi Baku 1 1069 73.06% 16.75%
25 1996-02-18 18.12 @ Baku Fahlasi 1 718 15.12% Turan Tovuz 0 1038 66.97% 17.90%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-08-02 62.1 @ Turan Tovuz 3 999 47.32% Kapaz 3 1040 33.34% 19.34%
2 1996-05-08 58.9 @ Qarabag 2 979 68.89% Kur-Nur 2 816 13.51% 17.60%
3 1995-09-17 58.7 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1014 61.81% Qarabag 2 932 19.66% 18.53%
4 1996-06-06 58.7 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1070 62.98% Qarabag 2 976 18.60% 18.41%
5 1996-05-12 58.4 @ Khazri Buzovna 2 949 49.14% Qarabag 2 976 31.57% 19.29%
6 1995-12-10 55.5 @ MOIK Baku 2 668 10.19% Neftchi Baku 1 1069 73.06% 16.75%
7 1996-02-21 54.7 @ Baku Fahlasi 1 736 15.31% Neftchi Baku 1 1053 66.75% 17.94%
8 1996-02-11 54.6 @ Turan Tovuz 1 1041 64.23% Khazri Buzovna 1 933 17.50% 18.27%
9 1995-09-24 54.5 @ Masalli 1 782 21.14% Kapaz 1 1029 60.17% 18.68%
10 1995-10-22 54.5 @ Qarabag 1 964 61.27% Khazri Buzovna 1 887 20.14% 18.58%
11 1996-03-03 54.4 @ Shamkir 1 760 60.14% MOIK Baku 1 694 21.17% 18.69%
12 1995-09-24 54.3 @ Baku Fahlasi 1 748 52.67% Shamkir 1 747 28.17% 19.16%
13 1995-12-10 54.3 Masalli 3 733 27.93% @ Shamkir 2 736 52.92% 19.15%
14 1996-05-19 54.3 @ Kur-Nur 1 814 30.55% Qarabag 1 977 50.19% 19.26%
15 1995-08-27 54.2 @ Shamkir 1 771 40.51% Kur-Nur 1 860 40.07% 19.41%
16 1995-11-05 54.2 @ Baku Fahlasi 1 755 41.44% Kur-Nur 1 837 39.15% 19.41%
17 1996-03-06 54.2 @ Qarabag 1 959 41.04% Neftchi Baku 1 1044 39.55% 19.41%
18 1996-03-10 54.2 @ Kur-Nur 1 821 35.24% Khazri Buzovna 1 947 45.39% 19.37%
19 1996-04-14 53.3 Kapaz 3 1078 31.10% @ Neftchi Baku 2 1055 49.63% 19.28%
20 1996-02-28 53.0 @ Neftchi Baku 0 1050 85.06% Pambiqci Neftcala 0 571 2.78% 12.16%
21 1995-10-01 51.4 @ Shamkir 0 748 68.79% Pambiqci Neftcala 0 587 13.60% 17.62%
22 1996-05-05 51.2 @ Kapaz 0 1089 64.79% Qarabag 0 975 17.01% 18.20%
23 1996-05-05 51.1 @ Turan Tovuz 0 1034 62.29% Khazri Buzovna 0 946 19.23% 18.49%
24 1995-08-27 51.0 @ Kapaz 0 1040 56.96% Neftchi Baku 0 1003 24.12% 18.93%
25 1996-02-18 50.9 @ Khazri Buzovna 0 936 30.14% Kapaz 0 1102 50.62% 19.24%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-02-11 24.7 @ Kapaz 4 1097 80.76% Masalli 0 732 4.97% 14.27%
2 1995-10-22 24.9 @ Kapaz 10 1014 83.36% Pambiqci Neftcala 1 584 3.57% 13.07%
3 1995-10-01 26.2 @ Neftchi Baku 5 1012 73.53% Masalli 0 784 9.83% 16.64%
4 1995-07-30 26.4 @ Qarabag 7 864 73.24% Pambiqci Neftcala 0 641 10.05% 16.71%
5 1996-03-03 26.5 Kapaz 10 1105 79.91% @ Pambiqci Neftcala 2 577 5.47% 14.62%
6 1995-07-30 27.2 @ Kapaz 8 1014 71.63% Shamkir 0 815 11.29% 17.07%
7 1995-11-26 27.9 Kapaz 4 1050 70.26% @ MOIK Baku 0 689 12.39% 17.35%
8 1995-09-24 29.5 @ Qarabag 3 934 69.52% MOIK Baku 0 763 12.99% 17.49%
9 1996-05-12 29.6 @ Kapaz 2 1086 75.86% Kur-Nur 0 819 8.13% 16.01%
10 1995-10-01 29.8 @ Turan Tovuz 2 1001 75.18% Baku Fahlasi 0 746 8.61% 16.21%
11 1995-10-22 29.8 @ Kur-Nur 5 843 61.64% Masalli 0 762 19.81% 18.55%
12 1995-12-17 30.1 Kapaz 5 1068 60.51% @ Kur-Nur 0 817 20.84% 18.65%
13 1996-05-18 30.1 @ Shamkir 8 762 72.24% Pambiqci Neftcala 2 554 10.82% 16.94%
14 1996-04-06 30.2 @ MOIK Baku 3 711 67.21% Pambiqci Neftcala 0 569 14.92% 17.87%
15 1995-09-17 30.3 @ Kapaz 7 1009 67.36% Kur-Nur 1 866 14.80% 17.85%
16 1996-02-25 30.3 @ Kapaz 4 1101 80.59% Baku Fahlasi 1 740 5.06% 14.34%
17 1995-08-30 30.4 @ Kapaz 7 1038 75.58% MOIK Baku 2 776 8.32% 16.09%
18 1995-09-10 30.4 @ Neftchi Baku 5 1005 74.13% MOIK Baku 1 768 9.38% 16.49%
19 1996-03-10 30.4 @ Qarabag 2 958 73.18% Baku Fahlasi 0 736 10.09% 16.72%
20 1995-09-17 30.8 @ Turan Tovuz 2 994 72.08% Masalli 0 788 10.94% 16.98%
21 1995-11-08 30.9 Neftchi Baku 4 1062 78.33% @ Pambiqci Neftcala 1 568 6.46% 15.22%
22 1995-11-19 30.9 @ Neftchi Baku 4 1067 78.63% Shamkir 1 748 6.26% 15.11%
23 1996-05-04 31.3 @ Shamkir 9 761 65.77% Masalli 2 636 16.16% 18.07%
24 1996-02-25 31.4 @ Turan Tovuz 3 1020 83.97% Pambiqci Neftcala 1 573 3.28% 12.75%
25 1996-02-11 31.9 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1051 75.64% Kur-Nur 0 788 8.28% 16.08%