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2003-04 Azerbaijan Top League Season

182 games

Final

Champion

Neftchi Baku

69 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1996-97

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dinamo Baku

15.18 points above expected

41 points · 25.82 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Shafa Baku

10.32 points below expected

39 points · 49.32 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Neftchi Baku Champion 26 22 3 1 69 66 15 +51 62.09 +6.91
2 Shamkir 26 20 4 2 64 67 11 +56 61.19 +2.81
3 Qarabag 26 19 3 4 60 63 17 +46 57.53 +2.47
4 Khazar Universiteti Baku 26 15 6 5 51 43 16 +27 50.10 +0.90
5 Dinamo Baku 26 12 5 9 41 45 32 +13 25.82 +15.18
6 Shafa Baku 26 12 3 11 39 40 23 +17 49.32 -10.32
7 Bakili Baku 26 10 4 12 34 40 46 -6 30.96 +3.04
8 MOIK Baku 26 7 8 11 29 25 32 -7 30.24 -1.24
9 Adliyya Baku 26 7 8 11 29 27 40 -13 28.69 +0.31
10 Shahdag Qusar 26 7 6 13 27 29 41 -12 34.61 -7.61
11 Ganja 26 6 5 15 23 22 45 -23 21.89 +1.11
12 Khazar Sumqayit 26 7 1 18 22 32 78 -46 24.42 -2.42
13 Turan 26 4 4 18 16 15 59 -44 20.97 -4.97
14 Lokomotiv Imishli 26 4 0 22 12 17 76 -59 18.48 -6.48

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dinamo Baku 41 25.82 +15.18
2 Neftchi Baku 69 62.09 +6.91
3 Bakili Baku 34 30.96 +3.04
4 Shamkir 64 61.19 +2.81
5 Qarabag 60 57.53 +2.47

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shafa Baku 39 49.32 -10.32
2 Shahdag Qusar 27 34.61 -7.61
3 Lokomotiv Imishli 12 18.48 -6.48
4 Turan 16 20.97 -4.97
5 Khazar Sumqayit 22 24.42 -2.42

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ganja 2 Aug 2 – Aug 9 1 in 136
2 Qarabag 6 May 17 – Jun 18 1 in 39
3 Dinamo Baku 4 Mar 24 – May 2 1 in 15
4 Neftchi Baku 12 Sep 27 – May 5 1 in 14
5 Shamkir 8 Nov 15 – May 1 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ganja 6 Jul 2 – Jul 27 1 in 662
2 Shafa Baku 4 Jul 30 – Sep 28 1 in 439
3 Lokomotiv Imishli 15 Aug 2 – May 5 1 in 152
4 Shamkir 2 Jun 18 – Jul 6 1 in 85
5 Shahdag Qusar 5 Jul 26 – Sep 13 1 in 38

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Adliyya Baku 6 Dec 6 – May 5 1 in 56
2 Shamkir 19 Jul 12 – May 5 1 in 14
3 Bakili Baku 5 Jul 27 – Sep 28 1 in 10
4 Neftchi Baku 25 May 24 – May 5 1 in 9
5 Turan 2 Jul 16 – Jul 26 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shahdag Qusar 11 Jun 18 – Sep 27 1 in 935
2 Shafa Baku 7 Jul 16 – Sep 28 1 in 433
3 Ganja 10 May 18 – Jul 27 1 in 28
4 MOIK Baku 7 Nov 29 – May 5 1 in 18
5 Qarabag 2 Jul 2 – Jul 12 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Neftchi Baku 1615 69 +63 15 12.6 +2.4
Shamkir 1582 64 -2 13 13.1 -0.1
Qarabag 1309 60 -54 9 9.9 -0.9
Khazar Universiteti Baku 1123 51 -178 8 9.4 -1.4
Dinamo Baku 1405 41 +245 13 10.0 +3.0
Shafa Baku 987 39 +4 4 4.1 -0.1
Bakili Baku 1053 34 -21 4 4.7 -0.7
Adliyya Baku 1015 29 +57 9 7.9 +1.1
MOIK Baku 1010 29 +8 4 5.4 -1.4
Shahdag Qusar 968 27 +110 9 7.2 +1.8
Ganja 908 23 +16 5 5.2 -0.2
Khazar Sumqayit 526 22 -38 1 2.0 -1.0
Turan 610 16 -29 2 3.2 -1.2
Lokomotiv Imishli 388 12 -28 0 1.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AB BB DB GAN KS KUB LI MB NB QAR SB SQ SHA TUR
Adliyya Baku —
0-2-0
1.95
0-1-1
3.20
1-1-0
3.46
1-0-1
3.48
1-0-1
0.86
1-0-1
3.67
0-1-1
2.96
0-0-2
0.53
0-1-1
0.53
0-0-2
1.78
1-1-0
2.02
0-1-1
0.50
2-0-0
3.16
Bakili Baku
0-2-0
3.70
—
0-1-1
2.63
2-0-0
4.49
1-0-1
3.47
0-0-2
1.56
2-0-0
2.64
2-0-0
2.37
0-0-2
0.52
0-1-1
0.60
1-0-1
1.43
0-0-2
3.38
0-0-2
0.67
2-0-0
3.96
Dinamo Baku
1-1-0
2.46
1-1-0
3.03
—
1-1-0
2.47
1-0-1
1.42
1-0-1
1.22
2-0-0
3.51
1-1-0
3.41
0-0-2
0.50
1-0-1
1.58
1-0-1
1.12
1-1-0
2.31
0-0-2
0.61
1-0-1
2.77
Ganja
0-1-1
2.19
0-0-2
1.17
0-1-1
3.20
—
2-0-0
2.87
0-0-2
0.79
1-0-1
3.68
1-1-0
1.29
0-0-2
0.50
0-0-2
0.50
1-0-1
0.83
0-2-0
2.13
0-0-2
0.48
1-0-1
3.50
Khazar Sumqayit
1-0-1
2.17
1-0-1
2.19
1-0-1
4.25
0-0-2
2.79
—
0-0-2
0.91
2-0-0
3.33
0-0-2
2.66
0-0-2
0.39
0-0-2
0.51
0-0-2
0.71
1-0-1
1.33
0-0-2
0.55
1-1-0
2.82
Khazar Universiteti Baku
1-0-1
4.81
2-0-0
4.09
1-0-1
4.45
2-0-0
4.88
2-0-0
4.76
—
2-0-0
5.09
1-1-0
4.47
0-1-1
1.02
0-0-2
1.27
1-1-0
2.86
1-1-0
5.08
0-2-0
0.98
2-0-0
5.30
Lokomotiv Imishli
1-0-1
2.00
0-0-2
3.02
0-0-2
2.18
1-0-1
1.98
0-0-2
2.32
0-0-2
0.60
—
0-0-2
2.27
0-0-2
0.34
0-0-2
0.36
0-0-2
0.50
1-0-1
1.16
0-0-2
0.30
1-0-1
2.05
MOIK Baku
1-1-0
2.69
0-0-2
3.28
0-1-1
2.25
0-1-1
4.37
2-0-0
2.99
0-1-1
1.19
2-0-0
3.39
—
0-1-1
0.46
0-0-2
0.83
0-1-1
1.41
0-1-1
2.06
1-0-1
0.50
1-1-0
4.73
Neftchi Baku
2-0-0
5.15
2-0-0
5.17
2-0-0
5.19
2-0-0
5.18
2-0-0
5.33
1-1-0
4.64
2-0-0
5.39
1-1-0
5.23
—
2-0-0
3.26
2-0-0
4.98
2-0-0
4.94
0-1-1
3.01
2-0-0
5.01
Qarabag
1-1-0
5.15
1-1-0
5.08
1-0-1
4.09
2-0-0
5.20
2-0-0
5.17
2-0-0
4.39
2-0-0
5.35
2-0-0
4.84
0-0-2
2.39
—
2-0-0
3.85
2-0-0
3.62
1-0-1
2.63
1-1-0
5.34
Shafa Baku
2-0-0
3.88
1-0-1
4.24
1-0-1
4.58
1-0-1
4.83
2-0-0
4.97
0-1-1
2.79
2-0-0
5.19
1-1-0
4.25
0-0-2
0.70
0-0-2
1.81
—
1-0-1
4.68
0-0-2
1.51
1-1-0
5.02
Shahdag Qusar
0-1-1
3.63
2-0-0
2.27
0-1-1
3.36
0-2-0
3.52
1-0-1
4.33
0-1-1
0.60
1-0-1
4.50
1-1-0
3.60
0-0-2
0.74
0-0-2
2.05
1-0-1
0.98
—
0-0-2
0.50
1-0-1
4.43
Shamkir
1-1-0
5.19
2-0-0
5.00
2-0-0
5.11
2-0-0
5.20
2-0-0
5.16
0-2-0
4.69
2-0-0
5.42
1-0-1
5.18
1-1-0
2.64
1-0-1
3.02
2-0-0
4.16
2-0-0
5.19
—
2-0-0
5.42
Turan
0-0-2
2.50
0-0-2
1.70
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
2.15
0-1-1
2.83
0-0-2
0.39
1-0-1
3.60
0-1-1
0.93
0-0-2
0.69
0-1-1
0.36
0-1-1
0.66
1-0-1
1.23
0-0-2
0.31
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.93 +10.0
Allowed 0.76 -7.3
Differential 0.95 +4.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.34%7.42%7.42%8.52%2.20%3.30%38.19%
17.42%5.49%3.57%3.30%1.10%1.92%22.80%
27.42%3.57%1.10%1.37%0.82%0.82%15.11%
38.52%3.30%1.37%0.55%——13.74%
42.20%1.10%0.82%———4.12%
5+3.30%1.92%0.82%———6.04%
Total38.19%22.80%15.11%13.74%4.12%6.04%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.46 +0.00
SD 1.65 1.65 2.67
CV 1.13 1.13 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%11.54%3.85%7.69%—3.85%42.31%
17.69%15.38%—3.85%3.85%3.85%34.62%
27.69%——3.85%——11.54%
37.69%—————7.69%
4———————
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total38.46%30.77%3.85%15.38%3.85%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 1.54 -0.50
SD 1.37 2.00 2.61
CV 1.32 1.30 —
Max 6 7 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%11.54%11.54%7.69%3.85%50.00%
13.85%3.85%3.85%———11.54%
23.85%3.85%————7.69%
37.69%—3.85%3.85%——15.38%
4——7.69%———7.69%
5+3.85%—3.85%———7.69%
Total26.92%15.38%30.77%15.38%7.69%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 1.77 -0.23
SD 2.06 1.53 2.85
CV 1.34 0.87 —
Max 8 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%7.69%3.85%3.85%—30.77%
13.85%7.69%7.69%———19.23%
211.54%————3.85%15.38%
37.69%3.85%3.85%3.85%——19.23%
47.69%3.85%————11.54%
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total38.46%26.92%19.23%7.69%3.85%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.23 +0.50
SD 1.56 1.37 2.30
CV 0.90 1.11 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%11.54%7.69%7.69%3.85%3.85%50.00%
17.69%3.85%7.69%3.85%3.85%—26.92%
23.85%———7.69%—11.54%
311.54%—————11.54%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.46%15.38%15.38%11.54%15.38%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.85 1.73 -0.88
SD 1.05 1.97 2.41
CV 1.24 1.14 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%7.69%3.85%3.85%11.54%34.62%
17.69%—3.85%7.69%3.85%11.54%34.62%
23.85%——3.85%—7.69%15.38%
33.85%3.85%————7.69%
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+3.85%—————3.85%
Total23.08%11.54%11.54%15.38%7.69%30.77%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 3.00 -1.77
SD 1.34 2.51 3.22
CV 1.09 0.84 —
Max 5 8 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.23%3.85%3.85%—3.85%—30.77%
115.38%3.85%3.85%3.85%——26.92%
211.54%3.85%————15.38%
315.38%—3.85%———19.23%
4———————
5+7.69%—————7.69%
Total69.23%11.54%11.54%3.85%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 0.62 +1.04
SD 1.85 1.10 2.37
CV 1.12 1.78 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.69%53.85%—7.69%69.23%
1————3.85%3.85%7.69%
2—3.85%—7.69%——11.54%
3—7.69%3.85%———11.54%
4———————
5+———————
Total—11.54%11.54%61.54%3.85%11.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.65 2.92 -2.27
SD 1.09 1.06 1.87
CV 1.67 0.36 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%11.54%7.69%11.54%——46.15%
17.69%11.54%7.69%3.85%——30.77%
2—7.69%3.85%———11.54%
33.85%—3.85%———7.69%
4———————
5+3.85%—————3.85%
Total30.77%30.77%23.08%15.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 1.23 -0.27
SD 1.25 1.07 1.80
CV 1.30 0.87 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%—————7.69%
119.23%——3.85%——23.08%
215.38%7.69%3.85%———26.92%
311.54%11.54%————23.08%
4——3.85%———3.85%
5+7.69%3.85%3.85%———15.38%
Total61.54%23.08%11.54%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.54 0.58 +1.96
SD 1.82 0.86 1.89
CV 0.72 1.48 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%3.85%3.85%3.85%——19.23%
17.69%3.85%—3.85%——15.38%
215.38%7.69%————23.08%
37.69%7.69%————15.38%
411.54%—————11.54%
5+7.69%3.85%3.85%———15.38%
Total57.69%26.92%7.69%7.69%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.42 0.65 +1.77
SD 1.94 0.94 2.35
CV 0.80 1.43 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%23.08%7.69%———38.46%
111.54%3.85%3.85%7.69%——26.92%
23.85%3.85%————7.69%
311.54%—————11.54%
4—7.69%————7.69%
5+3.85%3.85%————7.69%
Total38.46%42.31%11.54%7.69%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 0.88 +0.65
SD 1.86 0.91 2.24
CV 1.21 1.03 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%15.38%3.85%3.85%3.85%7.69%42.31%
1—11.54%7.69%3.85%——23.08%
27.69%7.69%3.85%—3.85%—23.08%
33.85%—————3.85%
47.69%—————7.69%
5+———————
Total26.92%34.62%15.38%7.69%7.69%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.58 -0.46
SD 1.24 1.55 2.35
CV 1.11 0.99 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%3.85%3.85%———15.38%
13.85%3.85%————7.69%
219.23%—3.85%———23.08%
323.08%11.54%————34.62%
43.85%—————3.85%
5+7.69%7.69%————15.38%
Total65.38%26.92%7.69%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.58 0.42 +2.15
SD 1.72 0.64 1.93
CV 0.67 1.52 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%—26.92%11.54%3.85%7.69%57.69%
17.69%7.69%3.85%3.85%—7.69%30.77%
2—3.85%—3.85%——7.69%
33.85%—————3.85%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.23%11.54%30.77%19.23%3.85%15.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.58 2.27 -1.69
SD 0.81 1.71 2.05
CV 1.40 0.75 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Neftchi Baku 1615 69 62.09 +6.91 94.0% 51 54 59 62 65 70 74
Shamkir 1582 64 61.19 +2.81 79.0% 49 53 58 61 64 69 72
Dinamo Baku 1405 41 25.82 +15.18 100.0% 15 19 22 25 29 34 35
Qarabag 1309 60 57.53 +2.47 67.0% 44 49 54 58 61 65 70
Khazar Universiteti Baku 1123 51 50.10 +0.90 61.0% 37 41 47 51 54 58 62
Bakili Baku 1053 34 30.96 +3.04 69.0% 19 21 27 31 35 39 44
Adliyya Baku 1015 29 28.69 +0.31 60.0% 16 20 24 28 32 39 49
MOIK Baku 1010 29 30.24 -1.24 47.0% 17 21 27 30 34 39 41
Shafa Baku 987 39 49.32 -10.32 4.0% 35 40 46 50 53 57 63
Shahdag Qusar 968 27 34.61 -7.61 14.0% 22 25 31 35 38 45 49
Ganja 908 23 21.89 +1.11 64.0% 11 13 19 21 25 30 38
Turan 610 16 20.97 -4.97 20.0% 9 13 17 21 24 29 32
Khazar Sumqayit 526 22 24.42 -2.42 30.0% 9 15 20 24 28 33 36
Lokomotiv Imishli 388 12 18.48 -6.48 9.0% 9 11 15 18 21 26 33

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7.5% * Slight Edge: 7.5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.49%
No Edge
44.51%16.48%39.01%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 19.11 Elo pts.
268 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.46 goals
Neutral
-2+0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.34 * Runaway: 0.34 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.7
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
41%
Neftchi Baku, 2nd of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.19/gm
Comfortable
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.17 * Some Luck: 4.17 to 6.25 * Lucky: 6.25 to 8.33 * Wild Swing: 8.33 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.99 * Close: 0.99 to 1.48 * Off: 1.48 to 1.97 * Way Off: 1.97 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.22 points
Some Luck
05.2113
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.86
Pinpoint
01.232.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
100.00%
Dinamo Baku
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
4.00%
Shafa Baku
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.21 * Even: 0.21 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.15 * Moderate Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Strong Separation: 2.3 to 2.6 * Wide Separation: 2.6 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 73.5% * Slight Edge: 73.5% to 77.5% * Clear Edge: 77.5% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92% * Clear Edge: 92% to 97% * Strong Edge: 97% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59% * Some Drama: 59% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 67% * Very Frequent: 67% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14% * Occasional: 14% to 17.5% * Frequent: 17.5% to 21.5% * Very Frequent: 21.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Lopsided
00.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 365.64
2.55
Strong Separation
12.152.63.25
Interquartile Edge
88%
Wide Edge
50%73.5%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
41%
Few
0%42%100%
Blowouts
Expected
36%
Very Frequent
0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.47
Highly Predictable
00.432
Matchup Imbalance
0.67
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.63
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.44
Weak Carryover
00.470.651
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Upset-Prone
0%14%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Shaky Favorites
0%11%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.09 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.09 to 0.14 * Above Noise: 0.14 to 0.19 * Well Above Noise: 0.19 and up.
Probability calibration
0.24
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.73
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.117
Near Noise Ceiling
00.0940.25

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011121314
Neftchi Baku41.00%36.00%16.00%6.00%1.00%—————————
Shamkir43.00%35.00%17.00%4.00%1.00%—————————
Qarabag15.00%24.00%41.00%13.00%7.00%—————————
Khazar Universiteti Baku1.00%3.00%16.00%39.00%40.00%1.00%————————
Dinamo Baku—————2.00%11.00%15.00%16.00%14.00%22.00%15.00%3.00%2.00%
Shafa Baku—2.00%10.00%38.00%42.00%7.00%1.00%———————
Bakili Baku————1.00%24.00%19.00%18.00%17.00%7.00%5.00%4.00%5.00%—
MOIK Baku—————18.00%18.00%18.00%15.00%14.00%11.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%
Adliyya Baku————3.00%8.00%17.00%14.00%16.00%14.00%13.00%6.00%6.00%3.00%
Shahdag Qusar————5.00%36.00%28.00%13.00%9.00%5.00%1.00%3.00%——
Ganja—————1.00%—4.00%8.00%13.00%14.00%24.00%21.00%15.00%
Khazar Sumqayit—————3.00%6.00%10.00%12.00%15.00%17.00%14.00%10.00%13.00%
Turan———————6.00%6.00%11.00%10.00%23.00%21.00%23.00%
Lokomotiv Imishli———————2.00%1.00%7.00%7.00%8.00%32.00%43.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Khazar Universiteti Baku 100% —
Neftchi Baku 100% —
Qarabag 100% —
Shafa Baku 100% —
Shahdag Qusar 100% —
Shamkir 100% —
MOIK Baku 97.00% 3.00%
Bakili Baku 95.00% 5.00%
Dinamo Baku 95.00% 5.00%
Adliyya Baku 91.00% 9.00%
Khazar Sumqayit 77.00% 23.00%
Ganja 64.00% 36.00%
Turan 56.00% 44.00%
Lokomotiv Imishli 25.00% 75.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-05-17 Adliyya Baku W 1-040.8 1005 975 48.14% 17.47% 34.39%+0.18 +35.9 3
2003-05-17 @ MOIK Baku L 0-140.8 975 1005 34.39% 17.47% 48.14%-0.18 -35.9 0
2003-05-17 Shahdag Qusar W 5-041.3 1088 1216 26.89% 17.41% 55.70%-0.41 +240.7 3
2003-05-17 @ Qarabag L 0-541.3 1216 1088 55.70% 17.41% 26.89%+0.41 -240.7 0
2003-05-18 Dinamo Baku W 2-029.0 822 334 80.44% 16.01% 3.55%+1.89 +8.0 3
2003-05-18 @ Khazar Sumqayit L 0-229.0 334 822 3.55% 16.01% 80.44%-1.89 -8.1 0
2003-05-18 Ganja W 1-034.0 1269 1007 71.14% 17.01% 11.85%+1.05 +13.8 3
2003-05-18 @ Shafa Baku L 0-134.0 1007 1269 11.85% 17.01% 71.14%-1.05 -13.9 0
2003-05-18 Neftchi Baku W 3-148.2 1443 1404 49.21% 17.46% 33.32%+0.21 +57.2 3
2003-05-18 @ Shamkir L 1-348.2 1404 1443 33.32% 17.46% 49.21%-0.21 -57.2 0
2003-05-24 Turan W 6-131.3 1347 1091 70.73% 17.03% 12.24%+1.03 +52.1 3
2003-05-24 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-631.3 1091 1347 12.24% 17.03% 70.73%-1.03 -52.1 0
2003-05-25 Khazar Sumqayit L 0-147.8 939 830 57.85% 17.38% 24.77%+0.48 -56.6 0
2003-05-25 @ Adliyya Baku W 1-047.8 830 939 24.77% 17.38% 57.85%-0.48 +56.6 6
2003-05-25 MOIK Baku L 2-350.4 975 1041 34.69% 17.47% 47.84%-0.18 -32.4 0
2003-05-25 @ Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-250.4 1041 975 47.84% 17.47% 34.69%+0.18 +32.4 6
2003-05-25 Qarabag L 0-425.4 751 1329 2.69% 15.72% 81.60%-2.09 -11.5 0
2003-05-25 @ Bakili Baku W 4-025.4 1329 751 81.60% 15.72% 2.69%+2.09 +11.5 6
2003-05-25 Shafa Baku L 1-234.0 326 1283 0.33% 13.07% 86.60%-3.50 -0.4 0
2003-05-25 @ Dinamo Baku W 2-134.0 1283 326 86.60% 13.07% 0.33%+3.50 +0.4 6
2003-05-27 Shamkir L 0-327.6 993 1500 3.97% 16.12% 79.91%-1.82 -13.1 0
2003-05-27 @ Ganja W 3-027.6 1500 993 79.91% 16.12% 3.97%+1.82 +13.1 6
2003-05-28 Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-045.5 739 943 19.09% 17.28% 63.63%-0.69 +170.3 3
2003-05-28 @ Bakili Baku L 0-345.5 943 739 63.63% 17.28% 19.09%+0.69 -170.3 0
2003-05-31 Dinamo Baku W 4-023.2 1513 325 88.97% 10.95% 0.08%+4.50 +0.3 9
2003-05-31 @ Shamkir L 0-423.2 325 1513 0.08% 10.95% 88.97%-4.50 -0.3 0
2003-05-31 Lokomotiv Imishli W 4-138.3 887 772 58.48% 17.37% 24.14%+0.50 +61.2 9
2003-05-31 @ Khazar Sumqayit L 1-438.3 772 887 24.14% 17.37% 58.48%-0.50 -61.2 0
2003-05-31 Qarabag L 0-330.8 1074 1340 14.05% 17.12% 68.83%-0.92 -44.5 6
2003-05-31 @ MOIK Baku W 3-030.8 1340 1074 68.83% 17.12% 14.05%+0.92 +44.5 9
2003-05-31 Shahdag Qusar L 0-435.6 909 976 34.70% 17.47% 47.83%-0.18 -129.6 3
2003-05-31 @ Bakili Baku W 4-035.6 976 909 47.83% 17.47% 34.70%+0.18 +129.6 3
2003-06-01 Adliyya Baku W 7-127.9 1283 883 77.83% 16.46% 5.71%+1.57 +29.6 9
2003-06-01 @ Shafa Baku L 1-727.9 883 1283 5.71% 16.46% 77.83%-1.57 -29.6 0
2003-06-04 Khazar Sumqayit W 5-235.2 1385 948 79.00% 16.28% 4.71%+1.70 +11.3 12
2003-06-04 @ Qarabag L 2-535.2 948 1385 4.71% 16.28% 79.00%-1.70 -11.3 9
2003-06-04 Neftchi Baku L 0-134.5 1105 1399 12.22% 17.03% 70.75%-1.03 -14.3 3
2003-06-04 @ Shahdag Qusar W 1-034.5 1399 1105 70.75% 17.03% 12.22%+1.03 +14.3 6
2003-06-04 Shafa Baku L 0-524.7 711 1313 2.36% 15.57% 82.07%-2.17 -12.5 0
2003-06-04 @ Lokomotiv Imishli W 5-024.7 1313 711 82.07% 15.57% 2.36%+2.17 +12.5 12
2003-06-04 Shamkir L 0-228.3 853 1513 1.71% 15.21% 83.08%-2.39 -3.8 0
2003-06-04 @ Adliyya Baku W 2-028.3 1513 853 83.08% 15.21% 1.71%+2.39 +3.9 12
2003-06-05 MOIK Baku W 2-048.5 780 1029 15.30% 17.16% 67.54%-0.86 +124.7 6
2003-06-05 @ Bakili Baku L 0-248.5 1029 780 67.54% 17.16% 15.30%+0.86 -124.7 6
2003-06-05 Turan L 0-130.1 325 1039 1.27% 14.85% 83.88%-2.59 -1.5 0
2003-06-05 @ Dinamo Baku W 1-030.1 1039 325 83.88% 14.85% 1.27%+2.59 +1.5 3
2003-06-14 Bakili Baku W 1-040.7 937 905 48.42% 17.47% 34.11%+0.19 +35.7 12
2003-06-14 @ Khazar Sumqayit L 0-140.7 905 937 34.11% 17.47% 48.42%-0.19 -35.7 6
2003-06-14 Lokomotiv Imishli W 5-128.2 1517 699 85.58% 13.84% 0.58%+3.12 +2.0 15
2003-06-14 @ Shamkir L 1-528.2 699 1517 0.58% 13.84% 85.58%-3.12 -2.0 0
2003-06-14 Shahdag Qusar L 1-241.4 905 1091 20.71% 17.31% 61.98%-0.62 -21.8 6
2003-06-14 @ MOIK Baku W 2-141.4 1091 905 61.98% 17.31% 20.71%+0.62 +21.8 6
2003-06-15 Adliyya Baku L 0-248.1 1041 849 65.96% 17.22% 16.83%+0.79 -121.7 3
2003-06-15 @ Turan W 2-048.1 849 1041 16.83% 17.22% 65.96%-0.79 +121.7 3
2003-06-15 Ganja W 3-027.7 1414 980 78.91% 16.30% 4.80%+1.69 +15.8 9
2003-06-15 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-327.7 980 1414 4.80% 16.30% 78.91%-1.69 -15.8 0
2003-06-15 Khazar Universiteti Baku W 3-137.0 1396 1117 72.21% 16.95% 10.83%+1.11 +20.8 15
2003-06-15 @ Qarabag L 1-337.0 1117 1396 10.83% 16.95% 72.21%-1.11 -20.8 0
2003-06-18 Ganja D 1-155.9 1113 964 61.99% 17.31% 20.70%+0.62 -9.7 7
2003-06-18 @ Shahdag Qusar D 1-155.9 964 1113 20.70% 17.31% 61.99%-0.62 +9.7 1
2003-06-18 Khazar Sumqayit W 2-150.5 883 973 31.59% 17.45% 50.96%-0.26 +47.4 9
2003-06-18 @ MOIK Baku L 1-250.5 973 883 50.96% 17.45% 31.59%+0.26 -47.4 12
2003-06-18 Neftchi Baku D 0-052.5 1096 1429 9.98% 16.90% 73.12%-1.17 +17.4 1
2003-06-18 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku D 0-052.5 1429 1096 73.12% 16.90% 9.98%+1.17 -17.4 10
2003-06-18 Shafa Baku L 0-327.7 869 1325 5.20% 16.37% 78.43%-1.63 -17.1 6
2003-06-18 @ Bakili Baku W 3-027.7 1325 869 78.43% 16.37% 5.20%+1.63 +17.1 15
2003-06-18 Shamkir W 2-051.7 1417 1519 30.03% 17.44% 52.53%-0.31 +97.4 18
2003-06-18 @ Qarabag L 0-251.7 1519 1417 52.53% 17.44% 30.03%+0.31 -97.4 15
2003-06-18 Turan W 3-152.9 697 919 17.45% 17.23% 65.32%-0.76 +104.3 3
2003-06-18 @ Lokomotiv Imishli L 1-352.9 919 697 65.32% 17.23% 17.45%+0.76 -104.3 3
2003-07-01 MOIK Baku W 3-027.8 1343 930 78.23% 16.40% 5.37%+1.61 +17.6 18
2003-07-01 @ Shafa Baku L 0-327.8 930 1343 5.37% 16.40% 78.23%-1.61 -17.6 9
2003-07-01 Shahdag Qusar W 3-151.7 925 1103 21.54% 17.33% 61.13%-0.59 +97.6 15
2003-07-01 @ Khazar Sumqayit L 1-351.7 1103 925 61.13% 17.33% 21.54%+0.59 -97.6 7
2003-07-01 Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-134.7 852 1113 14.41% 17.13% 68.46%-0.90 -16.6 6
2003-07-01 @ Bakili Baku W 1-034.7 1113 852 68.46% 17.13% 14.41%+0.90 +16.6 4
2003-07-02 Adliyya Baku W 3-134.6 1412 971 79.14% 16.26% 4.60%+1.72 +9.0 13
2003-07-02 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-334.6 971 1412 4.60% 16.26% 79.14%-1.72 -9.0 3
2003-07-02 Dinamo Baku L 1-455.4 974 324 83.51% 15.02% 1.46%+2.50 -189.3 1
2003-07-02 @ Ganja W 4-155.4 324 974 1.46% 15.02% 83.51%-2.50 +189.3 3
2003-07-02 Qarabag D 0-052.7 815 1514 1.38% 14.95% 83.67%-2.54 +23.2 4
2003-07-02 @ Turan D 0-052.7 1514 815 83.67% 14.95% 1.38%+2.54 -23.2 19
2003-07-05 Dinamo Baku D 1-156.3 1005 513 80.54% 15.99% 3.48%+1.91 -19.5 8
2003-07-05 @ Shahdag Qusar D 1-156.3 513 1005 3.48% 15.99% 80.54%-1.91 +19.4 4
2003-07-05 Ganja W 8-026.8 1130 785 75.60% 16.70% 7.69%+1.36 +63.1 7
2003-07-05 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-826.8 785 1130 7.69% 16.70% 75.60%-1.36 -63.1 1
2003-07-05 Neftchi Baku L 0-228.4 801 1421 2.14% 15.46% 82.40%-2.24 -4.8 3
2003-07-05 @ Lokomotiv Imishli W 2-028.4 1421 801 82.40% 15.46% 2.14%+2.24 +4.8 16
2003-07-06 Shafa Baku L 0-133.4 1023 1360 9.78% 16.88% 73.34%-1.19 -11.6 15
2003-07-06 @ Khazar Sumqayit W 1-033.4 1360 1023 73.34% 16.88% 9.78%+1.19 +11.5 21
2003-07-06 Shamkir W 1-054.2 912 1422 3.91% 16.10% 79.98%-1.83 +79.0 12
2003-07-06 @ MOIK Baku L 0-154.2 1422 912 79.98% 16.10% 3.91%+1.83 -79.0 15
2003-07-06 Turan W 5-036.2 835 838 43.56% 17.48% 38.96%+0.06 +176.0 9
2003-07-06 @ Bakili Baku L 0-536.2 838 835 38.96% 17.48% 43.56%-0.06 -176.0 4
2003-07-12 Khazar Sumqayit W 3-135.8 1343 1011 74.97% 16.76% 8.27%+1.31 +16.0 18
2003-07-12 @ Shamkir L 1-335.8 1011 1343 8.27% 16.76% 74.97%-1.31 -16.0 15
2003-07-12 Qarabag W 2-049.6 1426 1491 34.83% 17.47% 47.71%-0.17 +89.3 19
2003-07-12 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-249.6 1491 1426 47.71% 17.47% 34.83%+0.17 -89.3 19
2003-07-12 Shahdag Qusar W 1-032.2 1372 986 77.28% 16.52% 6.19%+1.51 +7.4 24
2003-07-12 @ Shafa Baku L 0-132.2 986 1372 6.19% 16.52% 77.28%-1.51 -7.4 8
2003-07-13 Adliyya Baku W 3-049.4 532 962 6.01% 16.50% 77.49%-1.53 +209.5 7
2003-07-13 @ Dinamo Baku L 0-349.4 962 532 77.49% 16.50% 6.01%+1.53 -209.5 3
2003-07-13 Lokomotiv Imishli L 1-343.5 722 796 33.58% 17.46% 48.96%-0.21 -57.5 1
2003-07-13 @ Ganja W 3-143.5 796 722 48.96% 17.46% 33.58%+0.21 +57.5 6
2003-07-13 Khazar Universiteti Baku L 1-241.0 991 1193 19.29% 17.28% 63.43%-0.68 -20.5 12
2003-07-13 @ MOIK Baku W 2-141.0 1193 991 63.43% 17.28% 19.29%+0.68 +20.5 10
2003-07-16 Bakili Baku W 3-028.6 1359 1011 75.72% 16.69% 7.59%+1.37 +24.8 21
2003-07-16 @ Shamkir L 0-328.6 1011 1359 7.59% 16.69% 75.72%-1.37 -24.8 9
2003-07-16 Dinamo Baku W 3-027.2 1213 742 80.00% 16.10% 3.90%+1.83 +12.8 13
2003-07-16 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-327.2 742 1213 3.90% 16.10% 80.00%-1.83 -12.8 7
2003-07-16 Ganja W 2-146.9 662 664 43.69% 17.48% 38.83%+0.06 +37.5 7
2003-07-16 @ Turan L 1-246.9 664 662 38.83% 17.48% 43.69%-0.06 -37.5 1
2003-07-16 Lokomotiv Imishli L 2-349.0 752 854 30.11% 17.44% 52.44%-0.31 -28.7 3
2003-07-16 @ Adliyya Baku W 3-249.0 854 752 52.44% 17.44% 30.11%+0.31 +28.7 9
2003-07-16 Qarabag L 0-145.9 1379 1402 40.77% 17.48% 41.75%-0.01 -41.4 24
2003-07-16 @ Shafa Baku W 1-045.9 1402 1379 41.75% 17.48% 40.77%+0.01 +41.4 22
2003-07-19 Adliyya Baku D 1-156.0 979 724 70.69% 17.03% 12.28%+1.02 -14.2 9
2003-07-19 @ Shahdag Qusar D 1-156.0 724 979 12.28% 17.03% 70.69%-1.02 +14.2 4
2003-07-19 Dinamo Baku L 2-358.7 883 729 62.51% 17.30% 20.19%+0.64 -54.6 9
2003-07-19 @ Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-258.7 729 883 20.19% 17.30% 62.51%-0.64 +54.6 10
2003-07-19 Ganja W 4-024.2 1443 627 85.57% 13.85% 0.59%+3.12 +2.4 25
2003-07-19 @ Qarabag L 0-424.2 627 1443 0.59% 13.85% 85.57%-3.12 -2.4 1
2003-07-19 Neftchi Baku L 0-229.4 986 1515 3.52% 16.00% 80.49%-1.90 -8.0 9
2003-07-19 @ Bakili Baku W 2-029.4 1515 986 80.49% 16.00% 3.52%+1.90 +8.0 22
2003-07-20 Khazar Universiteti Baku L 2-345.0 995 1226 16.73% 17.21% 66.05%-0.79 -17.1 15
2003-07-20 @ Khazar Sumqayit W 3-245.0 1226 995 66.05% 17.21% 16.73%+0.79 +17.1 16
2003-07-20 Shamkir L 0-143.9 1338 1383 37.50% 17.48% 45.02%-0.10 -38.7 24
2003-07-20 @ Shafa Baku W 1-043.9 1383 1338 45.02% 17.48% 37.50%+0.10 +38.7 24
2003-07-26 MOIK Baku D 0-052.8 1523 971 81.84% 15.64% 2.51%+2.13 -22.4 23
2003-07-26 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-052.8 971 1523 2.51% 15.64% 81.84%-2.13 +22.4 13
2003-07-26 Shafa Baku D 1-156.4 700 1299 2.39% 15.59% 82.02%-2.17 +20.1 8
2003-07-26 @ Turan D 1-156.4 1299 700 82.02% 15.59% 2.39%+2.17 -20.1 25
2003-07-26 Shahdag Qusar W 5-025.6 1422 964 79.62% 16.17% 4.21%+1.78 +22.3 27
2003-07-26 @ Shamkir L 0-525.6 964 1422 4.21% 16.17% 79.62%-1.78 -22.3 9
2003-07-27 Adliyya Baku L 0-154.3 1243 738 80.84% 15.91% 3.24%+1.96 -79.8 16
2003-07-27 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku W 1-054.3 738 1243 3.24% 15.91% 80.84%-1.96 +79.8 7
2003-07-27 Bakili Baku L 2-439.8 624 978 8.97% 16.82% 74.22%-1.25 -15.5 1
2003-07-27 @ Ganja W 4-239.8 978 624 74.22% 16.82% 8.97%+1.25 +15.5 12
2003-07-27 Qarabag L 1-235.1 784 1446 1.70% 15.20% 83.11%-2.40 -1.9 10
2003-07-27 @ Dinamo Baku W 2-135.1 1446 784 83.11% 15.20% 1.70%+2.40 +1.9 28
2003-07-30 Lokomotiv Imishli L 1-252.8 942 828 58.45% 17.37% 24.18%+0.50 -53.9 9
2003-07-30 @ Shahdag Qusar W 2-152.8 828 942 24.18% 17.37% 58.45%-0.50 +53.9 12
2003-07-30 MOIK Baku L 1-239.2 720 993 13.56% 17.10% 69.35%-0.95 -14.8 8
2003-07-30 @ Turan W 2-139.2 993 720 69.35% 17.10% 13.56%+0.95 +14.8 16
2003-07-30 Neftchi Baku L 2-533.7 782 1501 1.24% 14.82% 83.94%-2.61 -2.9 10
2003-07-30 @ Dinamo Baku W 5-233.7 1501 782 83.94% 14.82% 1.24%+2.61 +2.9 26
2003-07-30 Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-148.3 1279 1163 58.58% 17.37% 24.04%+0.50 -57.3 25
2003-07-30 @ Shafa Baku W 1-048.3 1163 1279 24.04% 17.37% 58.58%-0.50 +57.3 19
2003-08-02 Adliyya Baku W 7-024.4 1447 818 83.20% 15.16% 1.64%+2.42 +11.8 31
2003-08-02 @ Qarabag L 0-724.4 818 1447 1.64% 15.16% 83.20%-2.42 -11.8 7
2003-08-02 Dinamo Baku D 3-364.9 994 779 67.85% 17.15% 15.00%+0.87 -7.9 13
2003-08-02 @ Bakili Baku D 3-364.9 779 994 15.00% 17.15% 67.85%-0.87 +7.9 11
2003-08-02 Ganja L 0-153.5 1008 609 77.79% 16.46% 5.75%+1.56 -76.8 16
2003-08-02 @ MOIK Baku W 1-053.5 609 1008 5.75% 16.46% 77.79%-1.56 +76.8 4
2003-08-02 Lokomotiv Imishli W 5-026.7 1221 882 75.33% 16.73% 7.94%+1.34 +41.7 22
2003-08-02 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-526.7 882 1221 7.94% 16.73% 75.33%-1.34 -41.7 12
2003-08-03 Neftchi Baku L 1-334.4 978 1504 3.58% 16.01% 80.41%-1.89 -7.0 15
2003-08-03 @ Khazar Sumqayit W 3-134.4 1504 978 80.41% 16.01% 3.58%+1.89 +7.0 29
2003-08-03 Turan W 5-128.4 1444 705 84.69% 14.41% 0.90%+2.83 +3.1 30
2003-08-03 @ Shamkir L 1-528.4 705 1444 0.90% 14.41% 84.69%-2.83 -3.1 8
2003-08-09 Khazar Sumqayit W 2-049.3 686 971 12.77% 17.06% 70.17%-0.99 +129.8 7
2003-08-09 @ Ganja L 0-249.3 971 686 70.17% 17.06% 12.77%+0.99 -129.8 15
2003-08-09 Shafa Baku W 1-035.8 1511 1222 72.77% 16.92% 10.31%+1.15 +12.1 32
2003-08-09 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-135.8 1222 1511 10.31% 16.92% 72.77%-1.15 -12.2 25
2003-08-09 Shahdag Qusar W 1-049.0 702 888 20.71% 17.31% 61.98%-0.62 +60.6 11
2003-08-09 @ Turan L 0-149.0 888 702 61.98% 17.31% 20.71%+0.62 -60.6 9
2003-08-09 Khazar Universiteti Baku D 1-158.0 1447 1262 65.39% 17.23% 17.38%+0.76 -11.4 31
2003-08-09 @ Shamkir D 1-158.0 1262 1447 17.38% 17.23% 65.39%-0.76 +11.4 23
2003-08-10 Bakili Baku D 1-155.9 806 986 21.31% 17.33% 61.37%-0.60 +9.4 8
2003-08-10 @ Adliyya Baku D 1-155.9 986 806 61.37% 17.33% 21.31%+0.60 -9.4 14
2003-08-10 MOIK Baku W 2-045.6 787 931 25.01% 17.39% 57.60%-0.47 +106.3 14
2003-08-10 @ Dinamo Baku L 0-245.6 931 787 57.60% 17.39% 25.01%+0.47 -106.3 16
2003-08-16 Ganja W 2-039.9 815 815 43.95% 17.48% 38.57%+0.07 +74.6 11
2003-08-16 @ Adliyya Baku L 0-239.9 815 815 38.57% 17.48% 43.95%-0.07 -74.6 7
2003-08-16 Qarabag L 0-228.5 840 1459 2.15% 15.47% 82.39%-2.24 -4.8 12
2003-08-16 @ Lokomotiv Imishli W 2-028.5 1459 840 82.39% 15.47% 2.15%+2.24 +4.8 34
2003-08-16 Shahdag Qusar W 2-029.3 1274 828 79.29% 16.23% 4.47%+1.74 +10.1 26
2003-08-16 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-229.3 828 1274 4.47% 16.23% 79.29%-1.74 -10.1 9
2003-08-16 Turan W 5-033.0 841 762 54.36% 17.42% 28.21%+0.37 +133.9 18
2003-08-16 @ Khazar Sumqayit L 0-533.0 762 841 28.21% 17.42% 54.36%-0.37 -133.9 11
2003-08-20 Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-326.3 629 1284 1.76% 15.24% 83.00%-2.37 -5.7 11
2003-08-20 @ Turan W 3-026.3 1284 629 83.00% 15.24% 1.76%+2.37 +5.7 29
2003-09-13 MOIK Baku D 1-155.9 890 825 52.61% 17.44% 29.95%+0.31 -5.1 12
2003-09-13 @ Adliyya Baku D 1-155.9 825 890 29.95% 17.44% 52.61%-0.31 +5.1 17
2003-09-13 Qarabag L 1-235.3 817 1464 1.85% 15.30% 82.86%-2.34 -2.1 9
2003-09-13 @ Shahdag Qusar W 2-135.3 1464 817 82.86% 15.30% 1.85%+2.34 +2.1 37
2003-09-14 Bakili Baku L 0-334.0 835 977 25.39% 17.39% 57.21%-0.46 -75.9 12
2003-09-14 @ Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-034.0 977 835 57.21% 17.39% 25.39%+0.46 +75.9 17
2003-09-14 Khazar Sumqayit W 5-144.0 893 975 32.57% 17.46% 49.97%-0.24 +147.2 17
2003-09-14 @ Dinamo Baku L 1-544.0 975 893 49.97% 17.46% 32.57%+0.24 -147.2 18
2003-09-14 Shafa Baku W 1-053.8 741 1209 4.87% 16.31% 78.82%-1.68 +77.9 10
2003-09-14 @ Ganja L 0-153.8 1209 741 78.82% 16.31% 4.87%+1.68 -77.8 25
2003-09-14 Shamkir D 2-269.4 1523 1436 55.31% 17.41% 27.27%+0.40 -4.8 33
2003-09-14 @ Neftchi Baku D 2-269.4 1436 1523 27.27% 17.41% 55.31%-0.40 +4.8 32
2003-09-14 Turan W 2-028.0 1290 623 83.75% 14.91% 1.34%+2.56 +3.0 32
2003-09-14 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-228.0 623 1290 1.34% 14.91% 83.75%-2.56 -3.0 11
2003-09-27 Adliyya Baku L 1-638.3 828 885 35.97% 17.47% 46.56%-0.14 -136.3 18
2003-09-27 @ Khazar Sumqayit W 6-138.3 885 828 46.56% 17.47% 35.97%+0.14 +136.3 15
2003-09-27 Ganja W 2-028.3 1441 819 83.08% 15.21% 1.71%+2.39 +3.8 35
2003-09-27 @ Shamkir L 0-228.3 819 1441 1.71% 15.21% 83.08%-2.39 -3.8 10
2003-09-27 Neftchi Baku L 0-227.3 620 1518 0.46% 13.52% 86.02%-3.28 -1.0 11
2003-09-27 @ Turan W 2-027.3 1518 620 86.02% 13.52% 0.46%+3.28 +1.0 36
2003-09-27 Khazar Universiteti Baku D 0-052.2 815 1293 4.65% 16.27% 79.08%-1.71 +20.9 10
2003-09-27 @ Shahdag Qusar D 0-052.2 1293 815 79.08% 16.27% 4.65%+1.71 -20.9 33
2003-09-28 Dinamo Baku L 1-350.2 1132 1040 55.88% 17.41% 26.72%+0.41 -89.4 25
2003-09-28 @ Shafa Baku W 3-150.2 1040 1132 26.72% 17.41% 55.88%-0.41 +89.4 20
2003-09-28 Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-035.2 830 759 53.39% 17.43% 29.18%+0.34 +85.6 20
2003-09-28 @ MOIK Baku L 0-335.2 759 830 29.18% 17.43% 53.39%-0.34 -85.6 12
2003-09-28 Qarabag D 0-052.6 1052 1466 6.54% 16.57% 76.89%-1.47 +19.6 18
2003-09-28 @ Bakili Baku D 0-052.6 1466 1052 76.89% 16.57% 6.54%+1.47 -19.6 38
2003-10-25 Bakili Baku W 2-155.1 836 1072 16.35% 17.20% 66.45%-0.81 +61.3 13
2003-10-25 @ Shahdag Qusar L 1-255.1 1072 836 66.45% 17.20% 16.35%+0.81 -61.3 18
2003-10-25 Khazar Sumqayit L 0-338.9 674 692 41.45% 17.48% 41.07%+0.00 -115.1 12
2003-10-25 @ Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-038.9 692 674 41.07% 17.48% 41.45%+0.00 +115.0 21
2003-10-25 MOIK Baku W 3-133.9 1447 916 81.41% 15.77% 2.82%+2.05 +5.5 41
2003-10-25 @ Qarabag L 1-333.9 916 1447 2.82% 15.77% 81.41%-2.05 -5.5 20
2003-10-25 Shamkir L 0-232.3 1129 1445 10.98% 16.96% 72.06%-1.10 -24.3 20
2003-10-25 @ Dinamo Baku W 2-032.3 1445 1129 72.06% 16.96% 10.98%+1.10 +24.3 38
2003-10-26 Khazar Universiteti Baku W 2-142.4 1519 1272 70.17% 17.06% 12.77%+0.99 +14.0 39
2003-10-26 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-242.4 1272 1519 12.77% 17.06% 70.17%-0.99 -14.0 33
2003-10-26 Turan W 3-031.3 815 619 66.31% 17.20% 16.49%+0.80 +51.5 13
2003-10-26 @ Ganja L 0-331.3 619 815 16.49% 17.20% 66.31%-0.80 -51.5 11
2003-11-08 Adliyya Baku D 0-052.6 1469 1021 79.35% 16.22% 4.43%+1.74 -21.1 39
2003-11-08 @ Shamkir D 0-052.6 1021 1469 4.43% 16.22% 79.35%-1.74 +21.1 16
2003-11-08 Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-027.1 1042 559 80.31% 16.04% 3.65%+1.88 +12.0 28
2003-11-08 @ Shafa Baku L 0-327.1 559 1042 3.65% 16.04% 80.31%-1.88 -12.0 12
2003-11-08 Qarabag L 1-627.4 807 1452 1.86% 15.30% 82.84%-2.34 -8.1 21
2003-11-08 @ Khazar Sumqayit W 6-127.4 1452 807 82.84% 15.30% 1.86%+2.34 +8.1 44
2003-11-08 Shahdag Qusar W 4-237.3 1533 898 83.29% 15.12% 1.59%+2.44 +2.8 42
2003-11-08 @ Neftchi Baku L 2-437.3 898 1533 1.59% 15.12% 83.29%-2.44 -2.8 13
2003-11-09 Bakili Baku L 0-139.5 910 1011 30.23% 17.44% 52.33%-0.30 -32.2 20
2003-11-09 @ MOIK Baku W 1-039.5 1011 910 52.33% 17.44% 30.23%+0.30 +32.2 21
2003-11-09 Dinamo Baku L 0-228.9 567 1105 3.35% 15.95% 80.71%-1.94 -7.6 11
2003-11-09 @ Turan W 2-028.9 1105 567 80.71% 15.95% 3.35%+1.94 +7.6 23
2003-11-09 Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-132.5 866 1258 7.36% 16.67% 75.97%-1.39 -8.8 13
2003-11-09 @ Ganja W 1-032.5 1258 866 75.97% 16.67% 7.36%+1.39 +8.8 36
2003-11-12 Shafa Baku L 1-443.8 1042 1054 42.25% 17.48% 40.27%+0.03 -98.6 16
2003-11-12 @ Adliyya Baku W 4-143.8 1054 1042 40.27% 17.48% 42.25%-0.03 +98.6 31
2003-11-15 Khazar Sumqayit W 8-231.1 1043 799 69.98% 17.07% 12.95%+0.98 +53.9 24
2003-11-15 @ Bakili Baku L 2-831.1 799 1043 12.95% 17.07% 69.98%-0.98 -53.8 21
2003-11-15 MOIK Baku D 2-260.9 895 878 46.32% 17.47% 36.21%+0.13 -1.7 14
2003-11-15 @ Shahdag Qusar D 2-260.9 878 895 36.21% 17.47% 46.32%-0.13 +1.7 21
2003-11-15 Shamkir L 0-325.4 547 1448 0.45% 13.50% 86.05%-3.29 -1.4 12
2003-11-15 @ Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-025.4 1448 547 86.05% 13.50% 0.45%+3.29 +1.4 42
2003-11-16 Neftchi Baku L 1-235.2 857 1536 1.55% 15.09% 83.36%-2.46 -1.7 13
2003-11-16 @ Ganja W 2-135.2 1536 857 83.36% 15.09% 1.55%+2.46 +1.7 45
2003-11-16 Qarabag L 0-236.6 1267 1460 20.02% 17.30% 62.68%-0.65 -42.3 36
2003-11-16 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku W 2-036.6 1460 1267 62.68% 17.30% 20.02%+0.65 +42.3 47
2003-11-16 Turan W 3-028.0 944 560 77.21% 16.53% 6.26%+1.50 +20.5 19
2003-11-16 @ Adliyya Baku L 0-328.0 560 944 6.26% 16.53% 77.21%-1.50 -20.5 11
2003-11-22 Dinamo Baku W 1-033.0 1538 1113 78.64% 16.34% 5.02%+1.66 +6.0 48
2003-11-22 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-133.0 1113 1538 5.02% 16.34% 78.64%-1.66 -6.0 23
2003-11-22 Qarabag W 3-048.5 1449 1502 36.45% 17.48% 46.07%-0.13 +125.8 45
2003-11-22 @ Shamkir L 0-348.5 1502 1449 46.07% 17.48% 36.45%+0.13 -125.8 47
2003-11-22 Shahdag Qusar D 0-051.8 856 893 38.64% 17.48% 43.88%-0.07 +1.3 14
2003-11-22 @ Ganja D 0-051.8 893 856 43.88% 17.48% 38.64%+0.07 -1.3 15
2003-11-22 Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-134.8 964 1224 14.50% 17.13% 68.37%-0.90 -16.7 19
2003-11-22 @ Adliyya Baku W 1-034.8 1224 964 68.37% 17.13% 14.50%+0.90 +16.7 39
2003-11-23 Bakili Baku L 1-250.8 1153 1097 51.52% 17.45% 31.04%+0.28 -47.8 31
2003-11-23 @ Shafa Baku W 2-150.8 1097 1153 31.04% 17.45% 51.52%-0.28 +47.8 27
2003-11-23 Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-038.2 539 545 43.12% 17.48% 39.40%+0.05 +110.3 14
2003-11-23 @ Turan L 0-338.2 545 539 39.40% 17.48% 43.12%-0.05 -110.3 12
2003-11-23 MOIK Baku L 0-532.4 745 880 26.11% 17.40% 56.49%-0.43 -125.2 21
2003-11-23 @ Khazar Sumqayit W 5-032.4 880 745 56.49% 17.40% 26.11%+0.43 +125.1 24
2003-11-29 Bakili Baku W 3-034.5 1241 1145 56.42% 17.40% 26.18%+0.43 +77.9 42
2003-11-29 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-334.5 1145 1241 26.18% 17.40% 56.42%-0.43 -77.9 27
2003-11-29 Khazar Sumqayit W 4-028.4 892 620 71.79% 16.98% 11.23%+1.09 +47.1 18
2003-11-29 @ Shahdag Qusar L 0-428.4 620 892 11.23% 16.98% 71.79%-1.09 -47.1 21
2003-11-29 Shafa Baku D 0-051.8 1005 1105 30.29% 17.44% 52.27%-0.30 +5.5 25
2003-11-29 @ MOIK Baku D 0-051.8 1105 1005 52.27% 17.44% 30.29%+0.30 -5.5 32
2003-11-30 Ganja D 0-051.9 1107 857 70.34% 17.05% 12.61%+1.00 -15.7 24
2003-11-30 @ Dinamo Baku D 0-051.9 857 1107 12.61% 17.05% 70.34%-1.00 +15.7 15
2003-11-30 Neftchi Baku L 0-327.0 947 1544 2.43% 15.61% 81.96%-2.15 -8.0 19
2003-11-30 @ Adliyya Baku W 3-027.0 1544 947 81.96% 15.61% 2.43%+2.15 +8.0 51
2003-11-30 Turan W 4-024.5 1377 650 84.54% 14.50% 0.96%+2.78 +4.0 50
2003-11-30 @ Qarabag L 0-424.5 650 1377 0.96% 14.50% 84.54%-2.78 -4.0 14
2003-12-06 Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-024.7 1552 435 88.37% 11.51% 0.11%+4.24 +0.3 54
2003-12-06 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-324.7 435 1552 0.11% 11.51% 88.37%-4.24 -0.3 12
2003-12-06 Qarabag D 1-156.3 939 1381 5.64% 16.44% 77.91%-1.58 +18.1 20
2003-12-06 @ Adliyya Baku D 1-156.3 1381 939 77.91% 16.44% 5.64%+1.58 -18.1 51
2003-12-06 Shahdag Qusar W 4-031.2 1091 939 62.35% 17.31% 20.34%+0.64 +81.4 27
2003-12-06 @ Dinamo Baku L 0-431.2 939 1091 20.34% 17.31% 62.35%-0.64 -81.4 18
2003-12-07 Bakili Baku L 2-341.6 645 1067 6.28% 16.54% 77.18%-1.50 -6.7 14
2003-12-07 @ Turan W 3-241.6 1067 645 77.18% 16.54% 6.28%+1.50 +6.7 30
2003-12-07 Khazar Sumqayit W 4-131.5 1099 572 81.33% 15.79% 2.88%+2.04 +8.0 35
2003-12-07 @ Shafa Baku L 1-431.5 572 1099 2.88% 15.79% 81.33%-2.04 -8.0 21
2003-12-07 MOIK Baku W 3-027.4 1575 1010 82.09% 15.57% 2.35%+2.18 +7.7 48
2003-12-07 @ Shamkir L 0-327.4 1010 1575 2.35% 15.57% 82.09%-2.18 -7.7 25
2004-03-13 Dinamo Baku D 0-051.9 957 1172 18.08% 17.25% 64.67%-0.73 +12.3 21
2004-03-13 @ Adliyya Baku D 0-051.9 1172 957 64.67% 17.25% 18.08%+0.73 -12.3 28
2004-03-13 Ganja L 0-327.8 435 873 5.74% 16.46% 77.80%-1.56 -18.9 12
2004-03-13 @ Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-027.8 873 435 77.80% 16.46% 5.74%+1.56 +18.9 18
2004-03-13 MOIK Baku D 0-052.1 1319 1003 74.23% 16.82% 8.95%+1.25 -18.0 43
2004-03-13 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku D 0-052.1 1003 1319 8.95% 16.82% 74.23%-1.25 +18.0 26
2004-03-13 Neftchi Baku L 1-346.4 1363 1552 20.43% 17.31% 62.27%-0.64 -37.3 51
2004-03-13 @ Qarabag W 3-146.4 1552 1363 62.27% 17.31% 20.43%+0.64 +37.3 57
2004-03-13 Shafa Baku W 2-048.5 858 1107 15.26% 17.16% 67.57%-0.86 +124.8 21
2004-03-13 @ Shahdag Qusar L 0-248.5 1107 858 67.57% 17.16% 15.26%+0.86 -124.8 35
2004-03-13 Shamkir L 0-723.2 564 1583 0.24% 12.59% 87.17%-3.73 -1.6 21
2004-03-13 @ Khazar Sumqayit W 7-023.2 1583 564 87.17% 12.59% 0.24%+3.73 +1.6 51
2004-03-24 Adliyya Baku L 0-326.9 416 970 3.06% 15.86% 81.08%-2.00 -10.1 12
2004-03-24 @ Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-026.9 970 416 81.08% 15.86% 3.06%+2.00 +10.1 24
2004-03-24 Khazar Universiteti Baku W 4-042.6 1160 1301 25.47% 17.39% 57.14%-0.45 +200.1 31
2004-03-24 @ Dinamo Baku L 0-442.6 1301 1160 57.14% 17.39% 25.47%+0.45 -200.1 43
2004-04-03 Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-025.1 1360 406 86.93% 12.79% 0.27%+3.63 +0.8 34
2004-04-03 @ Dinamo Baku L 0-325.1 406 1360 0.27% 12.79% 86.93%-3.63 -0.8 12
2004-04-03 Turan D 1-156.1 1021 639 77.14% 16.54% 6.32%+1.50 -17.7 27
2004-04-03 @ MOIK Baku D 1-156.1 639 1021 6.32% 16.54% 77.14%-1.50 +17.7 15
2004-04-04 Bakili Baku W 6-026.3 1589 1074 81.08% 15.86% 3.07%+2.00 +19.3 60
2004-04-04 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-626.3 1074 1589 3.07% 15.86% 81.08%-2.00 -19.3 30
2004-04-04 Khazar Sumqayit W 2-028.6 1101 563 81.56% 15.73% 2.72%+2.08 +6.2 46
2004-04-04 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-228.6 563 1101 2.72% 15.73% 81.56%-2.08 -6.1 21
2004-04-04 Qarabag L 0-132.0 892 1325 5.88% 16.48% 77.64%-1.55 -7.1 18
2004-04-04 @ Ganja W 1-032.0 1325 892 77.64% 16.48% 5.88%+1.55 +7.0 54
2004-04-04 Shafa Baku W 3-134.1 1584 983 82.75% 15.34% 1.91%+2.32 +3.7 54
2004-04-04 @ Shamkir L 1-334.1 983 1584 1.91% 15.34% 82.75%-2.32 -3.7 35
2004-04-04 Shahdag Qusar W 1-042.1 980 982 43.62% 17.48% 38.90%+0.06 +39.9 27
2004-04-04 @ Adliyya Baku L 0-142.1 982 980 38.90% 17.48% 43.62%-0.06 -39.9 21
2004-04-07 Ganja W 4-242.8 1054 885 64.03% 17.27% 18.70%+0.70 +30.8 33
2004-04-07 @ Bakili Baku L 2-442.8 885 1054 18.70% 17.27% 64.03%-0.70 -30.8 18
2004-04-07 Neftchi Baku L 0-131.6 1003 1608 2.31% 15.55% 82.13%-2.19 -2.8 27
2004-04-07 @ MOIK Baku W 1-031.6 1608 1003 82.13% 15.55% 2.31%+2.19 +2.8 63
2004-04-07 Shamkir L 0-326.9 943 1588 1.86% 15.30% 82.84%-2.34 -6.1 21
2004-04-07 @ Shahdag Qusar W 3-026.9 1588 943 82.84% 15.30% 1.86%+2.34 +6.1 57
2004-04-07 Turan W 2-030.7 979 656 74.55% 16.79% 8.66%+1.27 +19.4 38
2004-04-07 @ Shafa Baku L 0-230.7 656 979 8.66% 16.79% 74.55%-1.27 -19.4 15
2004-04-10 Shafa Baku W 2-030.7 1332 998 75.10% 16.75% 8.15%+1.32 +18.3 57
2004-04-10 @ Qarabag L 0-230.7 998 1332 8.15% 16.75% 75.10%-1.32 -18.3 38
2004-04-10 Shamkir L 0-230.8 1085 1594 3.91% 16.10% 79.98%-1.83 -8.9 33
2004-04-10 @ Bakili Baku W 2-030.8 1594 1085 79.98% 16.10% 3.91%+1.83 +8.9 60
2004-04-18 Adliyya Baku D 0-051.9 854 1020 22.74% 17.35% 59.91%-0.55 +9.6 19
2004-04-18 @ Ganja D 0-051.9 1020 854 59.91% 17.35% 22.74%+0.55 -9.6 28
2004-04-18 Dinamo Baku L 0-145.3 1351 1361 42.49% 17.48% 40.02%+0.03 -42.9 57
2004-04-18 @ Qarabag W 1-045.3 1361 1351 40.02% 17.48% 42.49%-0.03 +42.9 37
2004-04-18 Khazar Sumqayit D 0-051.8 637 557 54.55% 17.42% 28.02%+0.37 -6.7 16
2004-04-18 @ Turan D 0-051.8 557 637 28.02% 17.42% 54.55%-0.37 +6.7 22
2004-04-18 Shafa Baku D 0-051.9 1107 980 59.81% 17.35% 22.84%+0.54 -9.6 47
2004-04-18 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku D 0-051.9 980 1107 22.84% 17.35% 59.81%-0.54 +9.6 39
2004-04-18 Shahdag Qusar L 0-327.0 405 936 3.46% 15.98% 80.56%-1.91 -11.4 12
2004-04-18 @ Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-027.0 936 405 80.56% 15.98% 3.46%+1.91 +11.4 24
2004-05-01 Khazar Sumqayit W 7-023.0 1611 563 87.78% 12.06% 0.16%+3.98 +1.1 66
2004-05-01 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-723.0 563 1611 0.16% 12.06% 87.78%-3.98 -1.1 22
2004-05-01 MOIK Baku D 0-051.8 863 1000 25.89% 17.40% 56.71%-0.44 +7.9 20
2004-05-01 @ Ganja D 0-051.8 1000 863 56.71% 17.40% 25.89%+0.44 -7.9 28
2004-05-01 Khazar Universiteti Baku L 0-326.1 393 1097 1.35% 14.92% 83.73%-2.56 -4.4 12
2004-05-01 @ Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-026.1 1097 393 83.73% 14.92% 1.35%+2.56 +4.4 50
2004-05-01 Shamkir L 0-227.1 630 1603 0.31% 12.95% 86.75%-3.56 -0.6 16
2004-05-01 @ Turan W 2-027.1 1603 630 86.75% 12.95% 0.31%+3.56 +0.7 63
2004-05-02 Bakili Baku W 2-031.1 1404 1076 74.80% 16.77% 8.43%+1.29 +18.9 40
2004-05-02 @ Dinamo Baku L 0-231.1 1076 1404 8.43% 16.77% 74.80%-1.29 -18.9 33
2004-05-05 Adliyya Baku D 0-051.8 1057 1010 50.40% 17.46% 32.14%+0.25 -4.6 34
2004-05-05 @ Bakili Baku D 0-051.8 1010 1057 32.14% 17.46% 50.40%-0.25 +4.6 29
2004-05-05 Dinamo Baku D 1-156.4 992 1423 5.98% 16.50% 77.52%-1.53 +17.9 29
2004-05-05 @ MOIK Baku D 1-156.4 1423 992 77.52% 16.50% 5.98%+1.53 -17.9 41
2004-05-05 Ganja L 0-329.7 562 871 11.33% 16.98% 71.68%-1.08 -36.4 22
2004-05-05 @ Khazar Sumqayit W 3-029.7 871 562 71.68% 16.98% 11.33%+1.08 +36.4 23
2004-05-05 Lokomotiv Imishli W 3-025.2 1308 389 86.59% 13.07% 0.33%+3.50 +1.0 60
2004-05-05 @ Qarabag L 0-325.2 389 1308 0.33% 13.07% 86.59%-3.50 -1.0 12
2004-05-05 Neftchi Baku L 0-131.4 990 1612 2.10% 15.45% 82.45%-2.25 -2.5 39
2004-05-05 @ Shafa Baku W 1-031.4 1612 990 82.45% 15.45% 2.10%+2.25 +2.5 69
2004-05-05 Shamkir D 0-054.2 1102 1604 4.07% 16.14% 79.79%-1.80 +21.3 51
2004-05-05 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku D 0-054.2 1604 1102 79.79% 16.14% 4.07%+1.80 -21.3 64
2004-05-05 Turan W 2-030.8 948 630 74.33% 16.81% 8.86%+1.26 +19.8 27
2004-05-05 @ Shahdag Qusar L 0-230.8 630 948 8.86% 16.81% 74.33%-1.26 -19.8 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2003-07-02 1.46% Dinamo Baku 324 4 @ Ganja 974 1
2 2003-07-27 3.24% Adliyya Baku 738 1 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku 1243 0
3 2003-07-06 3.91% @ MOIK Baku 912 1 Shamkir 1422 0
4 2003-09-14 4.87% @ Ganja 741 1 Shafa Baku 1209 0
5 2003-08-02 5.75% Ganja 609 1 @ MOIK Baku 1008 0
6 2003-07-13 6.01% @ Dinamo Baku 532 3 Adliyya Baku 962 0
7 2003-08-09 12.77% @ Ganja 686 2 Khazar Sumqayit 971 0
8 2004-03-13 15.26% @ Shahdag Qusar 858 2 Shafa Baku 1107 0
9 2003-06-05 15.30% @ Bakili Baku 780 2 MOIK Baku 1029 0
10 2003-10-25 16.35% @ Shahdag Qusar 836 2 Bakili Baku 1072 1
11 2003-06-15 16.83% Adliyya Baku 849 2 @ Turan 1041 0
12 2003-06-18 17.45% @ Lokomotiv Imishli 697 3 Turan 919 1
13 2003-05-28 19.09% @ Bakili Baku 739 3 Lokomotiv Imishli 943 0
14 2003-07-19 20.19% Dinamo Baku 729 3 @ Lokomotiv Imishli 883 2
15 2003-08-09 20.71% @ Turan 702 1 Shahdag Qusar 888 0
16 2003-07-01 21.54% @ Khazar Sumqayit 925 3 Shahdag Qusar 1103 1
17 2003-07-30 24.04% Khazar Universiteti Baku 1163 1 @ Shafa Baku 1279 0
18 2003-07-30 24.18% Lokomotiv Imishli 828 2 @ Shahdag Qusar 942 1
19 2003-05-25 24.77% Khazar Sumqayit 830 1 @ Adliyya Baku 939 0
20 2003-08-10 25.01% @ Dinamo Baku 787 2 MOIK Baku 931 0
21 2004-03-24 25.47% @ Dinamo Baku 1160 4 Khazar Universiteti Baku 1301 0
22 2003-09-28 26.72% Dinamo Baku 1040 3 @ Shafa Baku 1132 1
23 2003-05-17 26.89% @ Qarabag 1088 5 Shahdag Qusar 1216 0
24 2003-06-18 30.03% @ Qarabag 1417 2 Shamkir 1519 0
25 2003-11-23 31.04% Bakili Baku 1097 2 @ Shafa Baku 1153 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-05-17 240.67 @ Qarabag 5 1088 26.89% Shahdag Qusar 0 1216 55.70% 17.41%
2 2003-07-13 209.49 @ Dinamo Baku 3 532 6.01% Adliyya Baku 0 962 77.49% 16.50%
3 2004-03-24 200.08 @ Dinamo Baku 4 1160 25.47% Khazar Universiteti Baku 0 1301 57.14% 17.39%
4 2003-07-02 189.29 Dinamo Baku 4 324 1.46% @ Ganja 1 974 83.51% 15.02%
5 2003-07-06 175.97 @ Bakili Baku 5 835 43.56% Turan 0 838 38.96% 17.48%
6 2003-05-28 170.34 @ Bakili Baku 3 739 19.09% Lokomotiv Imishli 0 943 63.63% 17.28%
7 2003-09-14 147.18 @ Dinamo Baku 5 893 32.57% Khazar Sumqayit 1 975 49.97% 17.46%
8 2003-09-27 136.33 Adliyya Baku 6 885 46.56% @ Khazar Sumqayit 1 828 35.97% 17.47%
9 2003-08-16 133.86 @ Khazar Sumqayit 5 841 54.36% Turan 0 762 28.21% 17.42%
10 2003-08-09 129.82 @ Ganja 2 686 12.77% Khazar Sumqayit 0 971 70.17% 17.06%
11 2003-05-31 129.60 Shahdag Qusar 4 976 47.83% @ Bakili Baku 0 909 34.70% 17.47%
12 2003-11-22 125.82 @ Shamkir 3 1449 36.45% Qarabag 0 1502 46.07% 17.48%
13 2003-11-23 125.15 MOIK Baku 5 880 56.49% @ Khazar Sumqayit 0 745 26.11% 17.40%
14 2004-03-13 124.76 @ Shahdag Qusar 2 858 15.26% Shafa Baku 0 1107 67.57% 17.16%
15 2003-06-05 124.70 @ Bakili Baku 2 780 15.30% MOIK Baku 0 1029 67.54% 17.16%
16 2003-06-15 121.68 Adliyya Baku 2 849 16.83% @ Turan 0 1041 65.96% 17.22%
17 2003-10-25 115.05 Khazar Sumqayit 3 692 41.07% @ Lokomotiv Imishli 0 674 41.45% 17.48%
18 2003-11-23 110.33 @ Turan 3 539 43.12% Lokomotiv Imishli 0 545 39.40% 17.48%
19 2003-08-10 106.28 @ Dinamo Baku 2 787 25.01% MOIK Baku 0 931 57.60% 17.39%
20 2003-06-18 104.31 @ Lokomotiv Imishli 3 697 17.45% Turan 1 919 65.32% 17.23%
21 2003-11-12 98.57 Shafa Baku 4 1054 40.27% @ Adliyya Baku 1 1042 42.25% 17.48%
22 2003-07-01 97.56 @ Khazar Sumqayit 3 925 21.54% Shahdag Qusar 1 1103 61.13% 17.33%
23 2003-06-18 97.42 @ Qarabag 2 1417 30.03% Shamkir 0 1519 52.53% 17.44%
24 2003-09-28 89.40 Dinamo Baku 3 1040 26.72% @ Shafa Baku 1 1132 55.88% 17.41%
25 2003-07-12 89.32 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1426 34.83% Qarabag 0 1491 47.71% 17.47%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-09-14 69.4 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1523 55.31% Shamkir 2 1436 27.27% 17.41%
2 2003-08-02 64.9 @ Bakili Baku 3 994 67.85% Dinamo Baku 3 779 15.00% 17.15%
3 2003-11-15 60.9 @ Shahdag Qusar 2 895 46.32% MOIK Baku 2 878 36.21% 17.47%
4 2003-07-19 58.7 Dinamo Baku 3 729 20.19% @ Lokomotiv Imishli 2 883 62.51% 17.30%
5 2003-08-09 58.0 @ Shamkir 1 1447 65.39% Khazar Universiteti Baku 1 1262 17.38% 17.23%
6 2003-07-26 56.4 @ Turan 1 700 2.39% Shafa Baku 1 1299 82.02% 15.59%
7 2004-05-05 56.4 @ MOIK Baku 1 992 5.98% Dinamo Baku 1 1423 77.52% 16.50%
8 2003-07-05 56.3 @ Shahdag Qusar 1 1005 80.54% Dinamo Baku 1 513 3.48% 15.99%
9 2003-12-06 56.3 @ Adliyya Baku 1 939 5.64% Qarabag 1 1381 77.91% 16.44%
10 2004-04-03 56.1 @ MOIK Baku 1 1021 77.14% Turan 1 639 6.32% 16.54%
11 2003-07-19 56.0 @ Shahdag Qusar 1 979 70.69% Adliyya Baku 1 724 12.28% 17.03%
12 2003-06-18 55.9 @ Shahdag Qusar 1 1113 61.99% Ganja 1 964 20.70% 17.31%
13 2003-08-10 55.9 @ Adliyya Baku 1 806 21.31% Bakili Baku 1 986 61.37% 17.33%
14 2003-09-13 55.9 @ Adliyya Baku 1 890 52.61% MOIK Baku 1 825 29.95% 17.44%
15 2003-07-02 55.4 Dinamo Baku 4 324 1.46% @ Ganja 1 974 83.51% 15.02%
16 2003-10-25 55.1 @ Shahdag Qusar 2 836 16.35% Bakili Baku 1 1072 66.45% 17.20%
17 2003-07-27 54.3 Adliyya Baku 1 738 3.24% @ Khazar Universiteti Baku 0 1243 80.84% 15.91%
18 2003-07-06 54.2 @ MOIK Baku 1 912 3.91% Shamkir 0 1422 79.98% 16.10%
19 2004-05-05 54.2 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku 0 1102 4.07% Shamkir 0 1604 79.79% 16.14%
20 2003-09-14 53.8 @ Ganja 1 741 4.87% Shafa Baku 0 1209 78.82% 16.31%
21 2003-08-02 53.5 Ganja 1 609 5.75% @ MOIK Baku 0 1008 77.79% 16.46%
22 2003-06-18 52.9 @ Lokomotiv Imishli 3 697 17.45% Turan 1 919 65.32% 17.23%
23 2003-07-26 52.8 @ Neftchi Baku 0 1523 81.84% MOIK Baku 0 971 2.51% 15.64%
24 2003-07-30 52.8 Lokomotiv Imishli 2 828 24.18% @ Shahdag Qusar 1 942 58.45% 17.37%
25 2003-07-02 52.7 @ Turan 0 815 1.38% Qarabag 0 1514 83.67% 14.95%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-05-01 23.0 @ Neftchi Baku 7 1611 87.78% Khazar Sumqayit 0 563 0.16% 12.06%
2 2003-05-31 23.2 @ Shamkir 4 1513 88.97% Dinamo Baku 0 325 0.08% 10.95%
3 2004-03-13 23.2 Shamkir 7 1583 87.17% @ Khazar Sumqayit 0 564 0.24% 12.59%
4 2003-07-19 24.2 @ Qarabag 4 1443 85.57% Ganja 0 627 0.59% 13.85%
5 2003-08-02 24.4 @ Qarabag 7 1447 83.20% Adliyya Baku 0 818 1.64% 15.16%
6 2003-11-30 24.5 @ Qarabag 4 1377 84.54% Turan 0 650 0.96% 14.50%
7 2003-06-04 24.7 Shafa Baku 5 1313 82.07% @ Lokomotiv Imishli 0 711 2.36% 15.57%
8 2003-12-06 24.7 @ Neftchi Baku 3 1552 88.37% Lokomotiv Imishli 0 435 0.11% 11.51%
9 2004-04-03 25.1 @ Dinamo Baku 3 1360 86.93% Lokomotiv Imishli 0 406 0.27% 12.79%
10 2004-05-05 25.2 @ Qarabag 3 1308 86.59% Lokomotiv Imishli 0 389 0.33% 13.07%
11 2003-05-25 25.4 Qarabag 4 1329 81.60% @ Bakili Baku 0 751 2.69% 15.72%
12 2003-11-15 25.4 Shamkir 3 1448 86.05% @ Lokomotiv Imishli 0 547 0.45% 13.50%
13 2003-07-26 25.6 @ Shamkir 5 1422 79.62% Shahdag Qusar 0 964 4.21% 16.17%
14 2004-05-01 26.1 Khazar Universiteti Baku 3 1097 83.73% @ Lokomotiv Imishli 0 393 1.35% 14.92%
15 2003-08-20 26.3 Khazar Universiteti Baku 3 1284 83.00% @ Turan 0 629 1.76% 15.24%
16 2004-04-04 26.3 @ Neftchi Baku 6 1589 81.08% Bakili Baku 0 1074 3.07% 15.86%
17 2003-08-02 26.7 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku 5 1221 75.33% Lokomotiv Imishli 0 882 7.94% 16.73%
18 2003-07-05 26.8 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku 8 1130 75.60% Ganja 0 785 7.69% 16.70%
19 2004-03-24 26.9 Adliyya Baku 3 970 81.08% @ Lokomotiv Imishli 0 416 3.06% 15.86%
20 2004-04-07 26.9 Shamkir 3 1588 82.84% @ Shahdag Qusar 0 943 1.86% 15.30%
21 2003-11-30 27.0 Neftchi Baku 3 1544 81.96% @ Adliyya Baku 0 947 2.43% 15.61%
22 2004-04-18 27.0 Shahdag Qusar 3 936 80.56% @ Lokomotiv Imishli 0 405 3.46% 15.98%
23 2003-11-08 27.1 @ Shafa Baku 3 1042 80.31% Lokomotiv Imishli 0 559 3.65% 16.04%
24 2004-05-01 27.1 Shamkir 2 1603 86.75% @ Turan 0 630 0.31% 12.95%
25 2003-07-16 27.2 @ Khazar Universiteti Baku 3 1213 80.00% Dinamo Baku 0 742 3.90% 16.10%