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2018-19 Azerbaijan Premier League Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Qarabag

66 points · 7th Title

Last Title: 2017-18

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Qarabag

10.54 points above expected

66 points · 55.46 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Kesla

9.24 points below expected

23 points · 32.24 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Qarabag Champion 28 20 6 2 66 65 21 +44 55.46 +10.54
2 Neftchi Baku 28 17 7 4 58 52 26 +26 53.55 +4.45
3 Sabail 28 12 5 11 41 34 37 -3 34.33 +6.67
4 Gabala 28 9 9 10 36 31 33 -2 44.78 -8.78
5 Zira 28 8 7 13 31 30 40 -10 33.00 -2.00
6 Sumgayit 28 8 5 15 29 24 42 -18 32.28 -3.28
7 Sabah 28 7 6 15 27 20 41 -21 24.55 +2.45
8 Kesla 28 6 5 17 23 29 45 -16 32.24 -9.24

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Qarabag 66 55.46 +10.54
2 Sabail 41 34.33 +6.67
3 Neftchi Baku 58 53.55 +4.45
4 Sabah 27 24.55 +2.45
5 Zira 31 33.00 -2.00

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kesla 23 32.24 -9.24
2 Gabala 36 44.78 -8.78
3 Sumgayit 29 32.28 -3.28
4 Zira 31 33.00 -2.00
5 Sabah 27 24.55 +2.45

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sumgayit 3 Apr 27 – May 11 1 in 106
2 Sabail 3 Oct 5 – Oct 28 1 in 67
3 Qarabag 8 Mar 15 – May 11 1 in 40
4 Sabah 2 Aug 25 – Sep 16 1 in 27
5 Neftchi Baku 4 Sep 16 – Oct 5 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zira 5 Aug 25 – Sep 30 1 in 110
2 Kesla 5 Mar 15 – Apr 18 1 in 35
3 Gabala 3 Apr 27 – May 11 1 in 32
4 Sumgayit 4 Feb 3 – Feb 24 1 in 19
5 Qarabag 2 Oct 20 – Oct 28 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zira 6 Feb 10 – Mar 15 1 in 97
2 Qarabag 20 Oct 31 – May 11 1 in 64
3 Sabail 5 Oct 5 – Nov 10 1 in 19
4 Sumgayit 3 Apr 27 – May 11 1 in 12
5 Sabah 3 Aug 25 – Sep 22 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gabala 6 Aug 19 – Oct 5 1 in 49
2 Zira 6 Aug 18 – Sep 30 1 in 17
3 Sumgayit 9 Dec 9 – Apr 1 1 in 15
4 Kesla 7 Mar 15 – May 5 1 in 13
5 Qarabag 3 Oct 20 – Oct 31 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Qarabag 1783 66 +48 15 10.7 +4.3
Neftchi Baku 1691 58 -6 7 9.4 -2.4
Sabail 1493 41 -24 7 6.0 +1.0
Gabala 1563 36 -24 6 8.2 -2.2
Zira 1517 31 +32 9 6.5 +2.5
Sumgayit 1449 29 +15 9 5.0 +4.0
Sabah 1376 27 -41 1 4.5 -3.5
Kesla 1457 23 -1 4 5.2 -1.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team GAB KES NB QAR SAB SAB SUM ZIR
Gabala —
2-2-0
7.11
1-1-2
4.43
0-0-4
4.16
2-1-1
7.98
2-1-1
6.86
1-2-1
7.07
1-2-1
7.15
Kesla
0-2-2
3.97
 —
0-0-4
3.09
0-1-3
2.85
2-1-1
6.68
1-0-3
5.40
2-0-2
5.50
1-1-2
5.32
Neftchi Baku
2-1-1
6.64
4-0-0
8.05
 —
1-2-1
5.03
4-0-0
8.85
2-1-1
7.85
2-1-1
8.20
2-2-0
8.26
Qarabag
4-0-0
6.92
3-1-0
8.31
1-2-1
6.03
 —
2-2-0
8.99
3-0-1
8.41
4-0-0
8.04
3-1-0
8.50
Sabah
1-1-2
3.15
1-1-2
4.39
0-0-4
2.35
0-2-2
2.23
 —
1-1-2
4.25
1-1-2
4.46
3-0-1
4.28
Sabail
1-1-2
4.21
3-0-1
5.66
1-1-2
3.27
1-0-3
2.74
2-1-1
6.82
 —
2-1-1
6.21
2-1-1
5.96
Sumgayit
1-2-1
4.01
2-0-2
5.55
1-1-2
2.96
0-0-4
3.10
2-1-1
6.61
1-1-2
4.86
 —
1-0-3
5.57
Zira
1-2-1
3.93
2-1-1
5.73
0-2-2
2.89
0-1-3
2.66
1-0-3
6.80
1-1-2
5.11
3-0-1
5.49
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +9.7
Allowed 0.95 -17.9
Differential 0.96 +6.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.93%7.59%7.14%4.46%1.34%0.89%30.36%
17.59%9.82%10.27%3.12%1.79%0.45%33.04%
27.14%10.27%3.57%1.34%0.45%—22.77%
34.46%3.12%1.34%———8.93%
41.34%1.79%0.45%———3.57%
5+0.89%0.45%————1.34%
Total30.36%33.04%22.77%8.93%3.57%1.34%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.27 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.20 1.90
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%10.71%————25.00%
17.14%14.29%14.29%7.14%3.57%—46.43%
2—17.86%3.57%———21.43%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%46.43%17.86%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.18 -0.07
SD 0.88 1.02 1.27
CV 0.79 0.87 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%14.29%10.71%7.14%——35.71%
13.57%10.71%21.43%3.57%—3.57%42.86%
2—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
33.57%—————3.57%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total10.71%39.29%35.71%10.71%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 1.61 -0.57
SD 1.14 1.07 1.73
CV 1.10 0.66 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
17.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%——25.00%
221.43%14.29%7.14%7.14%——50.00%
33.57%7.14%————10.71%
43.57%—3.57%———7.14%
5+———————
Total42.86%32.14%14.29%10.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 0.93 +0.93
SD 0.97 1.02 1.36
CV 0.52 1.09 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%——3.57%——7.14%
17.14%17.86%—3.57%——28.57%
214.29%10.71%————25.00%
310.71%3.57%7.14%———21.43%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+7.14%3.57%————10.71%
Total46.43%39.29%7.14%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.32 0.75 +1.57
SD 1.59 0.89 2.03
CV 0.68 1.18 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%10.71%14.29%3.57%—46.43%
110.71%14.29%10.71%—3.57%—39.29%
27.14%3.57%————10.71%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%32.14%21.43%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.71 1.46 -0.75
SD 0.81 1.23 1.71
CV 1.13 0.84 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%3.57%10.71%3.57%7.14%—39.29%
13.57%—7.14%3.57%3.57%—17.86%
23.57%21.43%3.57%———28.57%
310.71%—————10.71%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total35.71%25.00%21.43%7.14%10.71%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.32 -0.11
SD 1.20 1.33 2.13
CV 0.99 1.01 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%17.86%——3.57%42.86%
114.29%7.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%—39.29%
2—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total21.43%32.14%35.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.50 -0.64
SD 1.01 1.32 1.73
CV 1.18 0.88 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%—3.57%39.29%
17.14%3.57%14.29%———25.00%
210.71%—7.14%3.57%3.57%—25.00%
33.57%7.14%————10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.71%17.86%28.57%10.71%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.43 -0.36
SD 1.05 1.48 1.93
CV 0.98 1.03 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Qarabag 1783 66 55.46 +10.54 95.0% 38 44 52 56 59 65 71
Neftchi Baku 1691 58 53.55 +4.45 79.0% 41 43 49 54 58 64 69
Gabala 1563 36 44.78 -8.78 14.0% 26 33 40 45 49 57 63
Zira 1517 31 33.00 -2.00 44.0% 14 22 29 32 38 44 51
Sabail 1493 41 34.33 +6.67 85.0% 15 23 29 34 39 44 49
Kesla 1457 23 32.24 -9.24 9.0% 21 22 28 32 36 43 49
Sumgayit 1449 29 32.28 -3.28 34.0% 14 20 27 33 36 43 49
Sabah 1376 27 24.55 +2.45 68.0% 10 13 20 24 29 35 40

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7.5% * Slight Edge: 7.5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-2.68%
No Edge
37.50%22.32%40.18%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -9.31 Elo pts.
174 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.06 goals
Neutral
-2-0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.34 * Runaway: 0.34 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
53%
Qarabag, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.29/gm
Comfortable
00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.31 * Some Luck: 5.31 to 7.97 * Lucky: 7.97 to 10.63 * Wild Swing: 10.63 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.82 * Close: 0.82 to 1.24 * Off: 1.24 to 1.65 * Way Off: 1.65 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.69 points
Some Luck
06.6417
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Pinpoint
01.032.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
95.00%
Qarabag
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
9.00%
Kesla
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.21 * Even: 0.21 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.15 * Moderate Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Strong Separation: 2.3 to 2.6 * Wide Separation: 2.6 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 73.5% * Slight Edge: 73.5% to 77.5% * Clear Edge: 77.5% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92% * Clear Edge: 92% to 97% * Strong Edge: 97% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59% * Some Drama: 59% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 67% * Very Frequent: 67% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14% * Occasional: 14% to 17.5% * Frequent: 17.5% to 21.5% * Very Frequent: 21.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Balanced
00.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 134.79
2.18
Moderate Separation
12.152.63.25
Interquartile Edge
69%
Even
50%73.5%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Even
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Some Drama
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Very Even
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.04
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.67
Strong Carryover
00.470.651
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.98
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.05
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.073
Well Within Noise
00.1620.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Qarabag53.00%35.00%7.00%4.00%1.00%———
Neftchi Baku41.00%42.00%16.00%1.00%————
Sabail—2.00%10.00%27.00%25.00%11.00%17.00%8.00%
Gabala5.00%18.00%46.00%17.00%8.00%4.00%—2.00%
Zira—1.00%11.00%15.00%17.00%27.00%23.00%6.00%
Sumgayit1.00%—5.00%18.00%20.00%24.00%23.00%9.00%
Sabah——1.00%3.00%6.00%10.00%20.00%60.00%
Kesla—2.00%4.00%15.00%23.00%24.00%17.00%15.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Gabala 100%
Kesla 100%
Neftchi Baku 100%
Qarabag 100%
Sabah 100%
Sabail 100%
Sumgayit 100%
Zira 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2018-08-11 Neftchi Baku L 0-250.7 1540 1597 30.34% 23.46% 46.20%-0.39 -15.4 0
2018-08-11 @ Sumgayit W 2-050.7 1597 1540 46.20% 23.46% 30.34%+0.39 +15.4 3
2018-08-12 Sabah L 0-154.0 1537 1410 54.68% 22.68% 22.64%+0.67 -13.2 0
2018-08-12 @ Kesla W 1-054.0 1410 1537 22.64% 22.68% 54.68%-0.67 +13.2 3
2018-08-12 Sabail W 3-042.3 1609 1443 59.10% 21.98% 18.93%+0.90 +14.9 3
2018-08-12 @ Gabala L 0-342.3 1443 1609 18.93% 21.98% 59.10%-0.90 -14.9 0
2018-08-18 Qarabag L 0-243.2 1428 1642 15.25% 20.95% 63.79%-1.29 -8.3 0
2018-08-18 @ Sabail W 2-043.2 1642 1428 63.79% 20.95% 15.25%+1.29 +8.3 3
2018-08-18 Kesla D 2-273.1 1550 1523 41.93% 23.63% 34.44%+0.10 -0.3 1
2018-08-18 @ Zira D 2-273.1 1523 1550 34.44% 23.63% 41.93%-0.10 +0.3 1
2018-08-19 Gabala W 2-165.3 1613 1624 36.56% 23.67% 39.77%-0.12 +9.5 6
2018-08-19 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-265.3 1624 1613 39.77% 23.67% 36.56%+0.12 -9.5 3
2018-08-19 Sumgayit L 1-446.0 1424 1524 25.30% 23.04% 51.66%-0.63 -16.2 3
2018-08-19 @ Sabah W 4-146.0 1524 1424 51.66% 23.04% 25.30%+0.63 +16.2 3
2018-08-25 Sabah L 0-251.9 1550 1407 56.50% 22.42% 21.08%+0.77 -25.6 1
2018-08-25 @ Zira W 2-051.9 1407 1550 21.08% 22.42% 56.50%-0.77 +25.6 6
2018-08-25 Sumgayit D 1-169.3 1615 1540 48.33% 23.33% 28.34%+0.37 -1.1 4
2018-08-25 @ Gabala D 1-169.3 1540 1615 28.34% 23.33% 48.33%-0.37 +1.1 4
2018-08-26 Neftchi Baku D 1-171.7 1650 1622 42.13% 23.63% 34.24%+0.11 -0.4 4
2018-08-26 @ Qarabag D 1-171.7 1622 1650 34.24% 23.63% 42.13%-0.11 +0.4 7
2018-08-26 Sabail L 1-259.6 1524 1420 52.06% 22.99% 24.95%+0.54 -11.9 1
2018-08-26 @ Kesla W 2-159.6 1420 1524 24.95% 22.99% 52.06%-0.54 +11.9 3
2018-09-14 Qarabag L 0-153.2 1542 1650 24.46% 22.93% 52.61%-0.68 -6.8 4
2018-09-14 @ Sumgayit W 1-053.2 1650 1542 52.61% 22.93% 24.46%+0.68 +6.8 7
2018-09-15 Zira W 3-048.6 1432 1524 26.22% 23.13% 50.64%-0.59 +33.8 6
2018-09-15 @ Sabail L 0-348.6 1524 1432 50.64% 23.13% 26.22%+0.59 -33.8 1
2018-09-16 Gabala W 1-059.2 1433 1614 17.75% 21.69% 60.56%-1.09 +14.5 9
2018-09-16 @ Sabah L 0-159.2 1614 1433 60.56% 21.69% 17.75%+1.09 -14.5 4
2018-09-16 Kesla W 2-048.6 1623 1512 52.92% 22.90% 24.18%+0.59 +12.8 10
2018-09-16 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-248.6 1512 1623 24.18% 22.90% 52.92%-0.59 -12.7 1
2018-09-22 Neftchi Baku L 1-256.5 1490 1636 20.79% 22.37% 56.84%-0.89 -5.6 1
2018-09-22 @ Zira W 2-156.5 1636 1490 56.84% 22.37% 20.79%+0.89 +5.6 13
2018-09-22 Sabah D 0-055.6 1465 1447 40.72% 23.66% 35.62%+0.05 -0.3 7
2018-09-22 @ Sabail D 0-055.6 1447 1465 35.62% 23.66% 40.72%-0.05 +0.3 10
2018-09-23 Gabala W 4-157.0 1657 1599 46.19% 23.46% 30.35%+0.28 +18.9 10
2018-09-23 @ Qarabag L 1-457.0 1599 1657 30.35% 23.46% 46.19%-0.28 -18.9 4
2018-09-23 Sumgayit L 1-257.5 1499 1535 33.21% 23.59% 43.20%-0.26 -8.3 1
2018-09-23 @ Kesla W 2-157.5 1535 1499 43.20% 23.59% 33.21%+0.26 +8.3 7
2018-09-26 Zira W 3-261.4 1676 1485 61.60% 21.47% 16.93%+1.05 +4.4 13
2018-09-26 @ Qarabag L 2-361.4 1485 1676 16.93% 21.47% 61.60%-1.05 -4.4 1
2018-09-29 Qarabag L 0-244.6 1448 1680 14.03% 20.51% 65.46%-1.39 -7.7 10
2018-09-29 @ Sabah W 2-044.6 1680 1448 65.46% 20.51% 14.03%+1.39 +7.7 16
2018-09-29 Sabail W 4-043.7 1641 1465 60.10% 21.79% 18.12%+0.96 +18.6 16
2018-09-29 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-443.7 1465 1641 18.12% 21.79% 60.10%-0.96 -18.6 7
2018-09-30 Kesla D 1-166.7 1580 1491 50.28% 23.17% 26.55%+0.46 -1.3 5
2018-09-30 @ Gabala D 1-166.7 1491 1580 26.55% 23.17% 50.28%-0.46 +1.3 2
2018-09-30 Zira W 1-049.6 1543 1480 46.84% 23.42% 29.74%+0.31 +8.0 10
2018-09-30 @ Sumgayit L 0-149.6 1480 1543 29.74% 23.42% 46.84%-0.31 -8.0 1
2018-10-05 Gabala W 1-057.3 1472 1579 24.65% 22.96% 52.39%-0.67 +12.7 4
2018-10-05 @ Zira L 0-157.3 1579 1472 52.39% 22.96% 24.65%+0.67 -12.7 5
2018-10-05 Sabah W 2-044.1 1660 1440 64.32% 20.82% 14.86%+1.21 +8.1 19
2018-10-05 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-244.1 1440 1660 14.86% 20.82% 64.32%-1.21 -8.1 10
2018-10-05 Sumgayit W 2-052.2 1446 1551 24.88% 22.99% 52.14%-0.66 +23.8 10
2018-10-05 @ Sabail L 0-252.2 1551 1446 52.14% 22.99% 24.88%+0.66 -23.8 10
2018-10-20 Neftchi Baku W 3-165.7 1566 1668 25.19% 23.02% 51.79%-0.64 +20.5 8
2018-10-20 @ Gabala L 1-365.7 1668 1566 51.79% 23.02% 25.19%+0.64 -20.5 19
2018-10-20 Sabail L 0-358.9 1688 1470 64.11% 20.87% 15.02%+1.20 -41.7 16
2018-10-20 @ Qarabag W 3-058.9 1470 1688 15.02% 20.87% 64.11%-1.20 +41.7 13
2018-10-21 Sabah L 0-153.5 1527 1432 51.00% 23.10% 25.90%+0.50 -12.4 10
2018-10-21 @ Sumgayit W 1-053.5 1432 1527 25.90% 23.10% 51.00%-0.50 +12.4 13
2018-10-21 Zira W 1-050.2 1492 1485 39.17% 23.67% 37.16%-0.01 +9.6 5
2018-10-21 @ Kesla L 0-150.2 1485 1492 37.16% 23.67% 39.17%+0.01 -9.6 4
2018-10-27 Gabala D 2-274.1 1515 1587 28.60% 23.35% 48.06%-0.47 +0.8 11
2018-10-27 @ Sumgayit D 2-274.1 1587 1515 48.06% 23.35% 28.60%+0.47 -0.8 9
2018-10-27 Zira W 2-156.1 1444 1475 33.83% 23.61% 42.56%-0.23 +10.0 16
2018-10-27 @ Sabah L 1-256.1 1475 1444 42.56% 23.61% 33.83%+0.23 -10.0 4
2018-10-28 Qarabag W 3-162.7 1647 1646 38.35% 23.68% 37.97%-0.05 +15.9 22
2018-10-28 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-362.7 1646 1647 37.97% 23.68% 38.35%+0.05 -15.9 16
2018-10-28 Kesla W 2-157.8 1512 1502 39.65% 23.67% 36.68%+0.01 +9.0 16
2018-10-28 @ Sabail L 1-257.8 1502 1512 36.68% 23.67% 39.65%-0.01 -9.0 5
2018-10-31 Qarabag D 1-168.6 1493 1630 21.52% 22.50% 55.98%-0.85 +1.9 6
2018-10-31 @ Kesla D 1-168.6 1630 1493 55.98% 22.50% 21.52%+0.85 -1.9 17
2018-11-03 Neftchi Baku L 0-150.3 1495 1663 18.72% 21.93% 59.35%-1.03 -5.4 6
2018-11-03 @ Kesla W 1-050.3 1663 1495 59.35% 21.93% 18.72%+1.03 +5.4 25
2018-11-03 Sumgayit W 2-048.8 1628 1516 53.11% 22.88% 24.01%+0.60 +12.7 20
2018-11-03 @ Qarabag L 0-248.8 1516 1628 24.01% 22.88% 53.11%-0.60 -12.7 11
2018-11-04 Sabah W 2-154.1 1586 1454 55.31% 22.59% 22.09%+0.70 +5.9 12
2018-11-04 @ Gabala L 1-254.1 1454 1586 22.09% 22.59% 55.31%-0.70 -5.9 16
2018-11-04 Sabail D 0-058.3 1465 1521 30.62% 23.48% 45.90%-0.37 +0.9 5
2018-11-04 @ Zira D 0-058.3 1521 1465 45.90% 23.48% 30.62%+0.37 -0.9 17
2018-11-10 Sabail L 0-442.3 1448 1520 28.65% 23.35% 48.00%-0.47 -27.9 16
2018-11-10 @ Sabah W 4-042.3 1520 1448 48.00% 23.35% 28.65%+0.47 +27.9 20
2018-11-10 Zira D 2-275.8 1669 1466 62.70% 21.22% 16.08%+1.11 -2.0 26
2018-11-10 @ Neftchi Baku D 2-275.8 1466 1669 16.08% 21.22% 62.70%-1.11 +2.0 6
2018-11-11 Qarabag L 1-359.8 1592 1641 31.46% 23.52% 45.02%-0.34 -13.7 12
2018-11-11 @ Gabala W 3-159.8 1641 1592 45.02% 23.52% 31.46%+0.34 +13.7 23
2018-11-11 Kesla L 1-452.3 1503 1489 40.12% 23.66% 36.21%+0.03 -23.5 11
2018-11-11 @ Sumgayit W 4-152.3 1489 1503 36.21% 23.66% 40.12%-0.03 +23.5 9
2018-11-24 Gabala L 1-258.3 1513 1578 29.39% 23.40% 47.21%-0.43 -7.5 9
2018-11-24 @ Kesla W 2-158.3 1578 1513 47.21% 23.40% 29.39%+0.43 +7.5 15
2018-11-24 Sabah D 1-167.7 1655 1421 65.61% 20.47% 13.92%+1.29 -3.0 24
2018-11-24 @ Qarabag D 1-167.7 1421 1655 13.92% 20.47% 65.61%-1.29 +3.0 17
2018-11-25 Neftchi Baku L 0-250.3 1548 1667 23.38% 22.79% 53.83%-0.74 -12.4 20
2018-11-25 @ Sabail W 2-050.3 1667 1548 53.83% 22.79% 23.38%+0.74 +12.4 29
2018-11-25 Sumgayit W 3-153.3 1468 1479 36.57% 23.67% 39.76%-0.12 +16.5 9
2018-11-25 @ Zira L 1-353.3 1479 1468 39.76% 23.67% 36.57%+0.12 -16.5 11
2018-12-01 Neftchi Baku L 1-252.6 1424 1679 12.63% 19.92% 67.45%-1.53 -3.4 17
2018-12-01 @ Sabah W 2-152.6 1679 1424 67.45% 19.92% 12.63%+1.53 +3.4 32
2018-12-01 Sabail W 1-054.2 1463 1536 28.52% 23.34% 48.14%-0.47 +11.8 14
2018-12-01 @ Sumgayit L 0-154.2 1536 1463 48.14% 23.34% 28.52%+0.47 -11.8 20
2018-12-02 Zira D 0-061.5 1586 1485 51.70% 23.03% 25.27%+0.53 -1.6 16
2018-12-02 @ Gabala D 0-061.5 1485 1586 25.27% 23.03% 51.70%-0.53 +1.6 10
2018-12-03 Kesla W 5-149.8 1652 1505 56.98% 22.34% 20.68%+0.79 +17.5 27
2018-12-03 @ Qarabag L 1-549.8 1505 1652 20.68% 22.34% 56.98%-0.79 -17.5 9
2018-12-09 Gabala D 0-062.7 1524 1584 30.03% 23.44% 46.53%-0.40 +1.0 21
2018-12-09 @ Sabail D 0-062.7 1584 1524 46.53% 23.44% 30.03%+0.40 -1.0 17
2018-12-09 Qarabag L 0-646.0 1486 1669 17.56% 21.64% 60.80%-1.11 -26.5 10
2018-12-09 @ Zira W 6-046.0 1669 1486 60.80% 21.64% 17.56%+1.11 +26.5 30
2018-12-09 Kesla L 1-251.6 1420 1488 29.15% 23.39% 47.47%-0.44 -7.5 17
2018-12-09 @ Sabah W 2-151.6 1488 1420 47.47% 23.39% 29.15%+0.44 +7.5 12
2018-12-09 Sumgayit D 0-064.8 1683 1475 63.21% 21.10% 15.69%+1.14 -3.0 33
2018-12-09 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-064.8 1475 1683 15.69% 21.10% 63.21%-1.14 +3.0 15
2019-02-02 Sabah L 0-245.8 1460 1413 44.76% 23.53% 31.71%+0.22 -20.9 10
2019-02-02 @ Zira W 2-045.8 1413 1460 31.71% 23.53% 44.76%-0.22 +20.9 20
2019-02-02 Sabail L 0-346.1 1495 1525 34.02% 23.62% 42.37%-0.22 -24.5 12
2019-02-02 @ Kesla W 3-046.1 1525 1495 42.37% 23.62% 34.02%+0.22 +24.5 24
2019-02-03 Neftchi Baku D 1-172.8 1696 1680 40.48% 23.66% 35.86%+0.04 -0.2 31
2019-02-03 @ Qarabag D 1-172.8 1680 1696 35.86% 23.66% 40.48%-0.04 +0.2 34
2019-02-03 Sumgayit W 1-049.4 1583 1478 52.23% 22.97% 24.79%+0.55 +6.9 20
2019-02-03 @ Gabala L 0-149.4 1478 1583 24.79% 22.97% 52.23%-0.55 -6.9 15
2019-02-09 Gabala L 0-146.3 1434 1590 19.79% 22.17% 58.04%-0.95 -5.7 20
2019-02-09 @ Sabah W 1-046.3 1590 1434 58.04% 22.17% 19.79%+0.95 +5.7 23
2019-02-09 Qarabag L 0-245.9 1471 1696 14.53% 20.70% 64.77%-1.35 -7.9 15
2019-02-09 @ Sumgayit W 2-045.9 1696 1471 64.77% 20.70% 14.53%+1.35 +7.9 34
2019-02-10 Kesla W 2-045.9 1680 1471 63.34% 21.07% 15.59%+1.15 +8.5 37
2019-02-10 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-245.9 1471 1680 15.59% 21.07% 63.34%-1.15 -8.5 12
2019-02-10 Zira L 0-252.1 1549 1439 52.84% 22.91% 24.26%+0.58 -24.1 24
2019-02-10 @ Sabail W 2-052.1 1439 1549 24.26% 22.91% 52.84%-0.58 +24.1 13
2019-02-16 Neftchi Baku D 0-064.8 1463 1688 14.49% 20.68% 64.82%-1.35 +3.2 14
2019-02-16 @ Zira D 0-064.8 1688 1463 64.82% 20.68% 14.49%+1.35 -3.2 38
2019-02-16 Sumgayit W 2-155.0 1462 1463 38.04% 23.68% 38.29%-0.06 +9.2 15
2019-02-16 @ Kesla L 1-255.0 1463 1462 38.29% 23.68% 38.04%+0.06 -9.2 15
2019-02-17 Gabala W 2-161.5 1703 1596 52.53% 22.94% 24.53%+0.57 +6.5 37
2019-02-17 @ Qarabag L 1-261.5 1596 1703 24.53% 22.94% 52.53%-0.57 -6.5 23
2019-02-17 Sabah W 1-045.7 1525 1428 51.24% 23.08% 25.69%+0.51 +7.1 27
2019-02-17 @ Sabail L 0-145.7 1428 1525 25.69% 23.08% 51.24%-0.51 -7.1 20
2019-02-23 Qarabag D 1-169.9 1421 1710 10.83% 19.01% 70.16%-1.72 +3.4 21
2019-02-23 @ Sabah D 1-169.9 1710 1421 70.16% 19.01% 10.83%+1.72 -3.5 38
2019-02-23 Kesla D 0-061.3 1589 1471 53.73% 22.80% 23.47%+0.63 -1.8 24
2019-02-23 @ Gabala D 0-061.3 1471 1589 23.47% 22.80% 53.73%-0.63 +1.8 16
2019-02-24 Sabail L 1-269.9 1685 1532 57.66% 22.23% 20.11%+0.83 -13.0 38
2019-02-24 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-169.9 1532 1685 20.11% 22.23% 57.66%-0.83 +13.0 30
2019-02-24 Zira L 0-147.9 1454 1466 36.38% 23.67% 39.96%-0.13 -9.4 15
2019-02-24 @ Sumgayit W 1-047.9 1466 1454 39.96% 23.67% 36.38%+0.13 +9.4 17
2019-03-02 Sabah W 3-041.5 1672 1424 66.79% 20.12% 13.08%+1.37 +10.4 41
2019-03-02 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-341.5 1424 1672 13.08% 20.12% 66.79%-1.37 -10.4 21
2019-03-02 Sumgayit D 0-058.6 1545 1444 51.71% 23.03% 25.26%+0.53 -1.6 31
2019-03-02 @ Sabail D 0-058.6 1444 1545 25.26% 23.03% 51.71%-0.53 +1.6 16
2019-03-03 Gabala D 1-166.5 1476 1587 24.11% 22.89% 53.00%-0.70 +1.6 18
2019-03-03 @ Zira D 1-166.5 1587 1476 53.00% 22.89% 24.11%+0.70 -1.6 25
2019-03-03 Qarabag L 0-149.0 1473 1706 13.97% 20.49% 65.54%-1.40 -4.0 16
2019-03-03 @ Kesla W 1-049.0 1706 1473 65.54% 20.49% 13.97%+1.40 +4.0 41
2019-03-09 Sabah W 3-040.2 1469 1414 45.84% 23.48% 30.68%+0.26 +22.6 19
2019-03-09 @ Kesla L 0-340.2 1414 1469 30.68% 23.48% 45.84%-0.26 -22.6 21
2019-03-09 Zira D 0-065.8 1711 1477 65.54% 20.49% 13.97%+1.29 -3.3 42
2019-03-09 @ Qarabag D 0-065.8 1477 1711 13.97% 20.49% 65.54%-1.29 +3.3 19
2019-03-10 Neftchi Baku L 1-253.9 1446 1682 13.77% 20.41% 65.83%-1.42 -3.8 16
2019-03-10 @ Sumgayit W 2-153.9 1682 1446 65.83% 20.41% 13.77%+1.42 +3.8 44
2019-03-10 Sabail W 2-160.5 1586 1544 44.08% 23.56% 32.36%+0.19 +8.1 28
2019-03-10 @ Gabala L 1-260.5 1544 1586 32.36% 23.56% 44.08%-0.19 -8.1 31
2019-03-15 Gabala D 1-171.9 1686 1594 50.63% 23.14% 26.24%+0.48 -1.3 45
2019-03-15 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-171.9 1594 1686 26.24% 23.14% 50.63%-0.48 +1.3 29
2019-03-15 Qarabag L 1-258.5 1536 1707 18.48% 21.87% 59.65%-1.04 -5.0 31
2019-03-15 @ Sabail W 2-158.5 1707 1536 59.65% 21.87% 18.48%+1.04 +5.0 45
2019-03-15 Kesla W 2-047.8 1480 1492 36.58% 23.67% 39.76%-0.12 +19.0 22
2019-03-15 @ Zira L 0-247.8 1492 1480 39.76% 23.67% 36.58%+0.12 -19.0 19
2019-03-15 Sumgayit D 1-158.4 1391 1442 31.24% 23.51% 45.25%-0.35 +0.7 22
2019-03-15 @ Sabah D 1-158.4 1442 1391 45.25% 23.51% 31.24%+0.35 -0.7 17
2019-03-30 Neftchi Baku L 0-149.0 1473 1685 15.38% 21.00% 63.62%-1.28 -4.5 19
2019-03-30 @ Kesla W 1-049.0 1685 1473 63.62% 21.00% 15.38%+1.28 +4.5 48
2019-03-30 Sabail L 1-257.5 1500 1531 33.84% 23.61% 42.55%-0.23 -8.4 22
2019-03-30 @ Zira W 2-157.5 1531 1500 42.55% 23.61% 33.84%+0.23 +8.4 34
2019-04-01 Qarabag L 0-643.6 1441 1712 11.77% 19.51% 68.72%-1.61 -17.8 17
2019-04-01 @ Sumgayit W 6-043.6 1712 1441 68.72% 19.51% 11.77%+1.61 +17.8 48
2019-04-01 Sabah D 0-059.0 1595 1392 62.77% 21.20% 16.03%+1.12 -3.0 30
2019-04-01 @ Gabala D 0-059.0 1392 1595 16.03% 21.20% 62.77%-1.12 +3.0 23
2019-04-06 Kesla W 2-155.7 1423 1468 32.03% 23.55% 44.42%-0.31 +10.4 20
2019-04-06 @ Sumgayit L 1-255.7 1468 1423 44.42% 23.55% 32.03%+0.31 -10.4 19
2019-04-06 Zira W 4-257.1 1689 1491 62.29% 21.32% 16.40%+1.09 +6.9 51
2019-04-06 @ Neftchi Baku L 2-457.1 1491 1689 16.40% 21.32% 62.29%-1.09 -6.9 22
2019-04-07 Qarabag L 1-260.7 1592 1730 21.50% 22.49% 56.01%-0.85 -5.8 30
2019-04-07 @ Gabala W 2-160.7 1730 1592 56.01% 22.49% 21.50%+0.85 +5.8 51
2019-04-07 Sabail W 3-157.5 1395 1539 20.92% 22.39% 56.69%-0.88 +22.2 26
2019-04-07 @ Sabah L 1-357.5 1539 1395 56.69% 22.39% 20.92%+0.88 -22.2 34
2019-04-13 Sabah W 3-041.6 1736 1417 72.36% 18.18% 9.46%+1.78 +7.4 54
2019-04-13 @ Qarabag L 0-341.6 1417 1736 9.46% 18.18% 72.36%-1.78 -7.4 26
2019-04-13 Sumgayit W 2-043.3 1484 1434 45.19% 23.51% 31.29%+0.24 +15.8 25
2019-04-13 @ Zira L 0-243.3 1434 1484 31.29% 23.51% 45.19%-0.24 -15.8 20
2019-04-14 Gabala L 1-254.3 1458 1586 22.38% 22.64% 54.98%-0.80 -6.0 19
2019-04-14 @ Kesla W 2-154.3 1586 1458 54.98% 22.64% 22.38%+0.80 +6.0 33
2019-04-14 Neftchi Baku D 2-277.6 1517 1696 17.84% 21.72% 60.45%-1.09 +1.8 35
2019-04-14 @ Sabail D 2-277.6 1696 1517 60.45% 21.72% 17.84%+1.09 -1.8 52
2019-04-18 Sabail L 1-251.4 1418 1518 25.33% 23.04% 51.63%-0.63 -6.6 20
2019-04-18 @ Sumgayit W 2-151.4 1518 1418 51.63% 23.04% 25.33%+0.63 +6.6 38
2019-04-18 Kesla W 3-043.3 1743 1452 70.33% 18.95% 10.72%+1.62 +8.4 57
2019-04-18 @ Qarabag L 0-343.3 1452 1743 10.72% 18.95% 70.33%-1.62 -8.4 19
2019-04-19 Neftchi Baku L 0-242.6 1410 1694 11.06% 19.14% 69.80%-1.69 -6.0 26
2019-04-19 @ Sabah W 2-042.6 1694 1410 69.80% 19.14% 11.06%+1.69 +6.0 55
2019-04-19 Zira W 2-157.3 1592 1500 50.65% 23.13% 26.22%+0.48 +6.8 36
2019-04-19 @ Gabala L 1-257.3 1500 1592 26.22% 23.13% 50.65%-0.48 -6.8 25
2019-04-27 Gabala W 2-165.0 1525 1599 28.34% 23.33% 48.33%-0.48 +11.2 41
2019-04-27 @ Sabail L 1-265.0 1599 1525 48.33% 23.33% 28.34%+0.48 -11.2 36
2019-04-27 Qarabag L 0-345.1 1493 1752 12.46% 19.85% 67.69%-1.54 -9.9 25
2019-04-27 @ Zira W 3-045.1 1752 1493 67.69% 19.85% 12.46%+1.54 +9.9 60
2019-04-27 Kesla D 1-158.8 1404 1443 32.71% 23.58% 43.72%-0.28 +0.6 27
2019-04-27 @ Sabah D 1-158.8 1443 1404 43.72% 23.58% 32.71%+0.28 -0.6 20
2019-04-27 Sumgayit L 2-375.2 1700 1411 70.15% 19.02% 10.84%+1.61 -14.7 55
2019-04-27 @ Neftchi Baku W 3-275.2 1411 1700 10.84% 19.02% 70.15%-1.61 +14.7 23
2019-05-05 Neftchi Baku L 1-358.6 1588 1686 25.64% 23.07% 51.29%-0.62 -11.6 36
2019-05-05 @ Gabala W 3-158.6 1686 1588 51.29% 23.07% 25.64%+0.62 +11.6 58
2019-05-05 Sabah W 1-044.8 1426 1404 41.26% 23.65% 35.10%+0.07 +9.2 26
2019-05-05 @ Sumgayit L 0-144.8 1404 1426 35.10% 23.65% 41.26%-0.07 -9.2 27
2019-05-05 Sabail W 4-046.5 1761 1536 64.81% 20.69% 14.50%+1.24 +15.0 63
2019-05-05 @ Qarabag L 0-446.5 1536 1761 14.50% 20.69% 64.81%-1.24 -15.0 41
2019-05-05 Zira L 1-350.4 1443 1483 32.57% 23.57% 43.86%-0.29 -14.1 20
2019-05-05 @ Kesla W 3-150.4 1483 1443 43.86% 23.57% 32.57%+0.29 +14.1 28
2019-05-11 Gabala W 1-056.9 1435 1576 21.18% 22.44% 56.38%-0.87 +13.6 29
2019-05-11 @ Sumgayit L 0-156.9 1576 1435 56.38% 22.44% 21.18%+0.87 -13.5 36
2019-05-11 Qarabag L 2-369.2 1697 1776 27.74% 23.28% 48.98%-0.51 -6.8 58
2019-05-11 @ Neftchi Baku W 3-269.2 1776 1697 48.98% 23.28% 27.74%+0.51 +6.8 66
2019-05-11 Kesla L 1-453.7 1521 1429 50.67% 23.13% 26.20%+0.48 -28.5 41
2019-05-11 @ Sabail W 4-153.7 1429 1521 26.20% 23.13% 50.67%-0.48 +28.5 23
2019-05-11 Zira L 0-338.7 1395 1497 25.14% 23.02% 51.85%-0.64 -19.1 27
2019-05-11 @ Sabah W 3-038.7 1497 1395 51.85% 23.02% 25.14%+0.64 +19.1 31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-04-27 10.84% Sumgayit 1411 3 @ Neftchi Baku 1700 2
2 2018-10-20 15.02% Sabail 1470 3 @ Qarabag 1688 0
3 2018-09-16 17.75% @ Sabah 1433 1 Gabala 1614 0
4 2019-02-24 20.11% Sabail 1532 2 @ Neftchi Baku 1685 1
5 2019-04-07 20.92% @ Sabah 1395 3 Sabail 1539 1
6 2018-08-25 21.08% Sabah 1407 2 @ Zira 1550 0
7 2019-05-11 21.18% @ Sumgayit 1435 1 Gabala 1576 0
8 2018-08-12 22.64% Sabah 1410 1 @ Kesla 1537 0
9 2019-02-10 24.26% Zira 1439 2 @ Sabail 1549 0
10 2018-10-05 24.65% @ Zira 1472 1 Gabala 1579 0
11 2018-10-05 24.88% @ Sabail 1446 2 Sumgayit 1551 0
12 2018-08-26 24.95% Sabail 1420 2 @ Kesla 1524 1
13 2018-10-20 25.19% @ Gabala 1566 3 Neftchi Baku 1668 1
14 2018-10-21 25.90% Sabah 1432 1 @ Sumgayit 1527 0
15 2019-05-11 26.20% Kesla 1429 4 @ Sabail 1521 1
16 2018-09-15 26.22% @ Sabail 1432 3 Zira 1524 0
17 2019-04-27 28.34% @ Sabail 1525 2 Gabala 1599 1
18 2018-12-01 28.52% @ Sumgayit 1463 1 Sabail 1536 0
19 2019-02-02 31.71% Sabah 1413 2 @ Zira 1460 0
20 2019-04-06 32.03% @ Sumgayit 1423 2 Kesla 1468 1
21 2018-10-27 33.83% @ Sabah 1444 2 Zira 1475 1
22 2018-11-11 36.21% Kesla 1489 4 @ Sumgayit 1503 1
23 2018-08-19 36.56% @ Neftchi Baku 1613 2 Gabala 1624 1
24 2018-11-25 36.57% @ Zira 1468 3 Sumgayit 1479 1
25 2019-03-15 36.58% @ Zira 1480 2 Kesla 1492 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-10-20 41.68 Sabail 3 1470 15.02% @ Qarabag 0 1688 64.11% 20.87%
2 2018-09-15 33.77 @ Sabail 3 1432 26.22% Zira 0 1524 50.64% 23.13%
3 2019-05-11 28.48 Kesla 4 1429 26.20% @ Sabail 1 1521 50.67% 23.13%
4 2018-11-10 27.91 Sabail 4 1520 48.00% @ Sabah 0 1448 28.65% 23.35%
5 2018-12-09 26.51 Qarabag 6 1669 60.80% @ Zira 0 1486 17.56% 21.64%
6 2018-08-25 25.61 Sabah 2 1407 21.08% @ Zira 0 1550 56.50% 22.42%
7 2019-02-02 24.52 Sabail 3 1525 42.37% @ Kesla 0 1495 34.02% 23.62%
8 2019-02-10 24.13 Zira 2 1439 24.26% @ Sabail 0 1549 52.84% 22.91%
9 2018-10-05 23.85 @ Sabail 2 1446 24.88% Sumgayit 0 1551 52.14% 22.99%
10 2018-11-11 23.49 Kesla 4 1489 36.21% @ Sumgayit 1 1503 40.12% 23.66%
11 2019-03-09 22.58 @ Kesla 3 1469 45.84% Sabah 0 1414 30.68% 23.48%
12 2019-04-07 22.24 @ Sabah 3 1395 20.92% Sabail 1 1539 56.69% 22.39%
13 2019-02-02 20.94 Sabah 2 1413 31.71% @ Zira 0 1460 44.76% 23.53%
14 2018-10-20 20.53 @ Gabala 3 1566 25.19% Neftchi Baku 1 1668 51.79% 23.02%
15 2019-05-11 19.14 Zira 3 1497 51.85% @ Sabah 0 1395 25.14% 23.02%
16 2019-03-15 19.04 @ Zira 2 1480 36.58% Kesla 0 1492 39.76% 23.67%
17 2018-09-23 18.88 @ Qarabag 4 1657 46.19% Gabala 1 1599 30.35% 23.46%
18 2018-09-29 18.65 @ Neftchi Baku 4 1641 60.10% Sabail 0 1465 18.12% 21.79%
19 2019-04-01 17.81 Qarabag 6 1712 68.72% @ Sumgayit 0 1441 11.77% 19.51%
20 2018-12-03 17.55 @ Qarabag 5 1652 56.98% Kesla 1 1505 20.68% 22.34%
21 2018-11-25 16.49 @ Zira 3 1468 36.57% Sumgayit 1 1479 39.76% 23.67%
22 2018-08-19 16.23 Sumgayit 4 1524 51.66% @ Sabah 1 1424 25.30% 23.04%
23 2018-10-28 15.92 @ Neftchi Baku 3 1647 38.35% Qarabag 1 1646 37.97% 23.68%
24 2019-04-13 15.80 @ Zira 2 1484 45.19% Sumgayit 0 1434 31.29% 23.51%
25 2018-08-11 15.41 Neftchi Baku 2 1597 46.20% @ Sumgayit 0 1540 30.34% 23.46%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-04-14 77.6 @ Sabail 2 1517 17.84% Neftchi Baku 2 1696 60.45% 21.72%
2 2018-11-10 75.8 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1669 62.70% Zira 2 1466 16.08% 21.22%
3 2019-04-27 75.2 Sumgayit 3 1411 10.84% @ Neftchi Baku 2 1700 70.15% 19.02%
4 2018-10-27 74.1 @ Sumgayit 2 1515 28.60% Gabala 2 1587 48.06% 23.35%
5 2018-08-18 73.1 @ Zira 2 1550 41.93% Kesla 2 1523 34.44% 23.63%
6 2019-02-03 72.8 @ Qarabag 1 1696 40.48% Neftchi Baku 1 1680 35.86% 23.66%
7 2019-03-15 71.9 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1686 50.63% Gabala 1 1594 26.24% 23.14%
8 2018-08-26 71.7 @ Qarabag 1 1650 42.13% Neftchi Baku 1 1622 34.24% 23.63%
9 2019-02-23 69.9 @ Sabah 1 1421 10.83% Qarabag 1 1710 70.16% 19.01%
10 2019-02-24 69.9 Sabail 2 1532 20.11% @ Neftchi Baku 1 1685 57.66% 22.23%
11 2018-08-25 69.3 @ Gabala 1 1615 48.33% Sumgayit 1 1540 28.34% 23.33%
12 2019-05-11 69.2 Qarabag 3 1776 48.98% @ Neftchi Baku 2 1697 27.74% 23.28%
13 2018-10-31 68.6 @ Kesla 1 1493 21.52% Qarabag 1 1630 55.98% 22.50%
14 2018-11-24 67.7 @ Qarabag 1 1655 65.61% Sabah 1 1421 13.92% 20.47%
15 2018-09-30 66.7 @ Gabala 1 1580 50.28% Kesla 1 1491 26.55% 23.17%
16 2019-03-03 66.5 @ Zira 1 1476 24.11% Gabala 1 1587 53.00% 22.89%
17 2019-03-09 65.8 @ Qarabag 0 1711 65.54% Zira 0 1477 13.97% 20.49%
18 2018-10-20 65.7 @ Gabala 3 1566 25.19% Neftchi Baku 1 1668 51.79% 23.02%
19 2018-08-19 65.3 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1613 36.56% Gabala 1 1624 39.77% 23.67%
20 2019-04-27 65.0 @ Sabail 2 1525 28.34% Gabala 1 1599 48.33% 23.33%
21 2018-12-09 64.8 @ Neftchi Baku 0 1683 63.21% Sumgayit 0 1475 15.69% 21.10%
22 2019-02-16 64.8 @ Zira 0 1463 14.49% Neftchi Baku 0 1688 64.82% 20.68%
23 2018-10-28 62.7 @ Neftchi Baku 3 1647 38.35% Qarabag 1 1646 37.97% 23.68%
24 2018-12-09 62.7 @ Sabail 0 1524 30.03% Gabala 0 1584 46.53% 23.44%
25 2018-12-02 61.5 @ Gabala 0 1586 51.70% Zira 0 1485 25.27% 23.03%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-05-11 38.7 Zira 3 1497 51.85% @ Sabah 0 1395 25.14% 23.02%
2 2019-03-09 40.2 @ Kesla 3 1469 45.84% Sabah 0 1414 30.68% 23.48%
3 2019-03-02 41.5 @ Neftchi Baku 3 1672 66.79% Sabah 0 1424 13.08% 20.12%
4 2019-04-13 41.6 @ Qarabag 3 1736 72.36% Sabah 0 1417 9.46% 18.18%
5 2018-08-12 42.3 @ Gabala 3 1609 59.10% Sabail 0 1443 18.93% 21.98%
6 2018-11-10 42.3 Sabail 4 1520 48.00% @ Sabah 0 1448 28.65% 23.35%
7 2019-04-19 42.6 Neftchi Baku 2 1694 69.80% @ Sabah 0 1410 11.06% 19.14%
8 2018-08-18 43.2 Qarabag 2 1642 63.79% @ Sabail 0 1428 15.25% 20.95%
9 2019-04-13 43.3 @ Zira 2 1484 45.19% Sumgayit 0 1434 31.29% 23.51%
10 2019-04-18 43.3 @ Qarabag 3 1743 70.33% Kesla 0 1452 10.72% 18.95%
11 2019-04-01 43.6 Qarabag 6 1712 68.72% @ Sumgayit 0 1441 11.77% 19.51%
12 2018-09-29 43.7 @ Neftchi Baku 4 1641 60.10% Sabail 0 1465 18.12% 21.79%
13 2018-10-05 44.1 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1660 64.32% Sabah 0 1440 14.86% 20.82%
14 2018-09-29 44.6 Qarabag 2 1680 65.46% @ Sabah 0 1448 14.03% 20.51%
15 2019-05-05 44.8 @ Sumgayit 1 1426 41.26% Sabah 0 1404 35.10% 23.65%
16 2019-04-27 45.1 Qarabag 3 1752 67.69% @ Zira 0 1493 12.46% 19.85%
17 2019-02-17 45.7 @ Sabail 1 1525 51.24% Sabah 0 1428 25.69% 23.08%
18 2019-02-02 45.8 Sabah 2 1413 31.71% @ Zira 0 1460 44.76% 23.53%
19 2019-02-09 45.9 Qarabag 2 1696 64.77% @ Sumgayit 0 1471 14.53% 20.70%
20 2019-02-10 45.9 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1680 63.34% Kesla 0 1471 15.59% 21.07%
21 2018-08-19 46.0 Sumgayit 4 1524 51.66% @ Sabah 1 1424 25.30% 23.04%
22 2018-12-09 46.0 Qarabag 6 1669 60.80% @ Zira 0 1486 17.56% 21.64%
23 2019-02-02 46.1 Sabail 3 1525 42.37% @ Kesla 0 1495 34.02% 23.62%
24 2019-02-09 46.3 Gabala 1 1590 58.04% @ Sabah 0 1434 19.79% 22.17%
25 2019-05-05 46.5 @ Qarabag 4 1761 64.81% Sabail 0 1536 14.50% 20.69%