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2017-18 Azerbaijan Premier League Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Qarabag

65 points · 6th Title

Last Title: 2016-17

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Neftchi Baku

9.38 points above expected

46 points · 36.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Kapaz

13.27 points below expected

14 points · 27.27 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Qarabag Champion 28 20 5 3 65 37 13 +24 59.06 +5.94
2 Gabala 28 14 7 7 49 43 26 +17 50.01 -1.01
3 Neftchi Baku 28 14 4 10 46 39 28 +11 36.62 +9.38
4 Zira 28 12 8 8 44 36 30 +6 45.74 -1.74
5 Sumgayit 28 11 7 10 40 34 33 +1 38.21 +1.79
6 Kesla 28 8 7 13 31 29 39 -10 31.65 -0.65
7 Sabail 28 6 5 17 23 19 39 -20 23.05 -0.05
8 Kapaz 28 3 5 20 14 18 47 -29 27.27 -13.27

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Neftchi Baku 46 36.62 +9.38
2 Qarabag 65 59.06 +5.94
3 Sumgayit 40 38.21 +1.79
4 Sabail 23 23.05 -0.05
5 Kesla 31 31.65 -0.65

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kapaz 14 27.27 -13.27
2 Zira 44 45.74 -1.74
3 Gabala 49 50.01 -1.01
4 Kesla 31 31.65 -0.65
5 Sabail 23 23.05 -0.05

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Neftchi Baku 4 Sep 29 – Oct 29 1 in 48
2 Qarabag 6 Oct 27 – Dec 8 1 in 14
3 Zira 3 Aug 13 – Aug 26 1 in 9
4 Gabala 4 Nov 4 – Dec 3 1 in 7
5 Kapaz 1 Sep 29 – Sep 29 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kesla 8 Sep 29 – Dec 3 1 in 926
2 Kapaz 7 Nov 5 – Feb 25 1 in 122
3 Qarabag 2 May 6 – May 12 1 in 57
4 Gabala 2 Feb 24 – Mar 4 1 in 52
5 Zira 3 Apr 15 – Apr 27 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Neftchi Baku 8 Feb 24 – Apr 22 1 in 131
2 Sumgayit 11 Nov 26 – Apr 15 1 in 101
3 Kesla 5 Apr 21 – May 20 1 in 61
4 Zira 8 Aug 13 – Oct 14 1 in 27
5 Sabail 3 Apr 15 – Apr 29 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zira 11 Feb 10 – Apr 27 1 in 1,086
2 Kesla 11 Sep 16 – Feb 11 1 in 132
3 Gabala 5 Mar 13 – Apr 22 1 in 61
4 Sumgayit 5 Apr 22 – May 20 1 in 23
5 Qarabag 2 Mar 14 – Apr 1 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Qarabag 1750 65 -57 9 10.1 -1.1
Gabala 1687 49 +4 7 8.7 -1.7
Neftchi Baku 1669 46 +30 12 8.4 +3.6
Zira 1590 44 +7 9 7.6 +1.4
Sumgayit 1573 40 -64 1 7.6 -6.6
Kesla 1567 31 +108 13 4.9 +8.1
Sabail 1403 23 -6 4 4.4 -0.4
Kapaz 1398 14 -22 2 4.1 -2.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team GAB KAP KES NB QAR SAB SUM ZIR
Gabala —
3-0-1
8.55
2-2-0
8.10
2-0-2
7.35
1-1-2
4.42
2-1-1
8.91
3-1-0
6.88
1-2-1
6.22
Kapaz
1-0-3
2.62
 —
1-1-2
4.89
0-1-3
4.09
0-0-4
2.03
1-1-2
6.12
0-1-3
3.93
0-1-3
3.70
Kesla
0-2-2
3.06
2-1-1
6.20
 —
1-0-3
4.62
1-1-2
2.49
2-1-1
7.15
0-1-3
4.37
2-1-1
3.44
Neftchi Baku
2-0-2
3.77
3-1-0
7.03
3-0-1
6.49
 —
1-1-2
2.83
3-0-1
7.47
1-1-2
5.31
1-1-2
4.13
Qarabag
2-1-1
6.68
4-0-0
9.20
2-1-1
8.70
2-1-1
8.33
 —
4-0-0
9.69
3-1-0
8.23
3-1-0
7.77
Sabail
1-1-2
2.29
2-1-1
4.98
1-1-2
3.96
1-0-3
3.65
0-0-4
1.60
 —
1-1-2
3.38
0-1-3
3.10
Sumgayit
0-1-3
4.22
3-1-0
7.19
3-1-0
6.74
2-1-1
5.79
0-1-3
2.92
2-1-1
7.75
 —
1-1-2
4.45
Zira
1-2-1
4.88
3-1-0
7.42
1-1-2
7.69
2-1-1
6.97
0-1-3
3.36
3-1-0
8.05
2-1-1
6.65
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.75 +15.2
Allowed 0.97 -15.3
Differential 0.97 +8.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.36%12.95%5.80%3.12%0.45%—27.68%
112.95%15.18%10.71%3.12%0.45%0.45%42.86%
25.80%10.71%0.89%2.23%——19.64%
33.12%3.12%2.23%———8.48%
40.45%0.45%————0.89%
5+—0.45%————0.45%
Total27.68%42.86%19.64%8.48%0.89%0.45%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.14 +0.00
SD 0.99 0.99 1.50
CV 0.87 0.87 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%3.57%———14.29%
114.29%21.43%14.29%———50.00%
23.57%10.71%————14.29%
37.14%7.14%3.57%———17.86%
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total28.57%50.00%21.43%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 0.93 +0.61
SD 1.29 0.72 1.52
CV 0.84 0.77 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%25.00%7.14%14.29%——53.57%
1—10.71%14.29%——3.57%28.57%
27.14%3.57%—7.14%——17.86%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%39.29%21.43%21.43%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 1.68 -1.04
SD 0.78 1.31 1.50
CV 1.21 0.78 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.71%10.71%3.57%——25.00%
110.71%25.00%10.71%7.14%——53.57%
2—10.71%—3.57%——14.29%
33.57%—3.57%———7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%46.43%25.00%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 1.39 -0.36
SD 0.84 0.92 1.34
CV 0.81 0.66 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%3.57%———25.00%
114.29%3.57%10.71%3.57%——32.14%
27.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%——25.00%
33.57%7.14%3.57%———14.29%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total35.71%35.71%21.43%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.00 +0.39
SD 1.13 0.94 1.50
CV 0.81 0.94 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%—3.57%——21.43%
132.14%7.14%————39.29%
221.43%7.14%————28.57%
3—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total64.29%28.57%3.57%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 0.46 +0.86
SD 1.02 0.74 1.21
CV 0.77 1.60 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%28.57%10.71%—3.57%—46.43%
110.71%14.29%7.14%10.71%——42.86%
2—7.14%————7.14%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%50.00%21.43%10.71%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.68 1.39 -0.71
SD 0.77 0.99 1.24
CV 1.14 0.71 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%7.14%———21.43%
17.14%17.86%10.71%3.57%3.57%—42.86%
27.14%17.86%3.57%———28.57%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%50.00%21.43%3.57%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.18 +0.04
SD 0.88 0.94 1.43
CV 0.72 0.80 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—3.57%3.57%——14.29%
114.29%21.43%17.86%———53.57%
2—17.86%—3.57%——21.43%
37.14%3.57%————10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%42.86%21.43%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.07 +0.21
SD 0.85 0.90 1.34
CV 0.66 0.84 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Qarabag 1750 65 59.06 +5.94 87.0% 44 49 54 60 63 69 74
Gabala 1687 49 50.01 -1.01 47.0% 32 37 45 50 55 61 68
Neftchi Baku 1669 46 36.62 +9.38 91.0% 18 23 32 38 41 50 53
Zira 1590 44 45.74 -1.74 48.0% 34 36 41 45 49 56 61
Sumgayit 1573 40 38.21 +1.79 63.0% 24 27 33 38 43 51 53
Kesla 1567 31 31.65 -0.65 50.0% 15 20 26 31 36 43 50
Sabail 1403 23 23.05 -0.05 58.0% 11 12 17 22 27 34 44
Kapaz 1398 14 27.27 -13.27 0.0% 16 17 23 27 31 37 43

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7.5% * Slight Edge: 7.5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+1.79%
No Edge
40.18%21.43%38.39%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 6.20 Elo pts.
278 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.03 goals
Neutral
-2+0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.34 * Runaway: 0.34 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
78%
Qarabag, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.57/gm
Runaway
00.310.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.34 * Some Luck: 5.34 to 8.01 * Lucky: 8.01 to 10.69 * Wild Swing: 10.69 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.64 * Close: 0.64 to 0.97 * Off: 0.97 to 1.29 * Way Off: 1.29 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.19 points
Some Luck
06.6817
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Close
00.812
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
91.00%
Neftchi Baku
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.00%
Kapaz
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.21 * Even: 0.21 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.15 * Moderate Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Strong Separation: 2.3 to 2.6 * Wide Separation: 2.6 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 73.5% * Slight Edge: 73.5% to 77.5% * Clear Edge: 77.5% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92% * Clear Edge: 92% to 97% * Strong Edge: 97% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59% * Some Drama: 59% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 67% * Very Frequent: 67% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14% * Occasional: 14% to 17.5% * Frequent: 17.5% to 21.5% * Very Frequent: 21.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Even
00.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 127.17
2.25
Moderate Separation
12.152.63.25
Interquartile Edge
70%
Even
50%73.5%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Even
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
73%
Very Frequent
0%68%100%
Blowouts
Expected 10%
9%
Rare
0%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.42
Slight Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.93
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.57
Some Carryover
00.470.651
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Very Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Shaky Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.91
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.02
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.078
Well Within Noise
00.1580.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Qarabag78.00%18.00%4.00%—————
Gabala14.00%49.00%22.00%8.00%3.00%4.00%——
Neftchi Baku2.00%3.00%12.00%27.00%26.00%16.00%8.00%6.00%
Zira5.00%22.00%40.00%21.00%9.00%3.00%——
Sumgayit1.00%6.00%18.00%29.00%18.00%20.00%6.00%2.00%
Kesla—2.00%2.00%9.00%32.00%19.00%25.00%11.00%
Sabail——1.00%2.00%4.00%10.00%27.00%56.00%
Kapaz——1.00%4.00%8.00%28.00%34.00%25.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Gabala 100% —
Qarabag 100% —
Zira 100% —
Sumgayit 98.00% 2.00%
Neftchi Baku 94.00% 6.00%
Kesla 89.00% 11.00%
Kapaz 75.00% 25.00%
Sabail 44.00% 56.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2017-08-11 Qarabag L 1-354.0 1535 1703 19.49% 21.67% 58.84%-0.58 -12.2 0
2017-08-11 @ Neftchi Baku W 3-154.0 1703 1535 58.84% 21.67% 19.49%+0.58 +12.2 3
2017-08-12 Gabala L 1-262.0 1587 1658 29.86% 22.55% 47.59%-0.23 -10.2 0
2017-08-12 @ Kesla W 2-162.0 1658 1587 47.59% 22.55% 29.86%+0.23 +10.2 3
2017-08-13 Kapaz W 2-162.5 1547 1572 35.98% 22.72% 41.30%-0.07 +13.2 3
2017-08-13 @ Sumgayit L 1-262.5 1572 1547 41.30% 22.72% 35.98%+0.07 -13.2 0
2017-08-13 Sabail W 2-154.0 1575 1460 54.48% 22.12% 23.40%+0.44 +8.3 3
2017-08-13 @ Zira L 1-254.0 1460 1575 23.40% 22.12% 54.48%-0.44 -8.3 0
2017-08-19 Neftchi Baku W 1-051.9 1451 1523 29.80% 22.55% 47.64%-0.24 +15.7 3
2017-08-19 @ Sabail L 0-151.9 1523 1451 47.64% 22.55% 29.80%+0.24 -15.7 0
2017-08-19 Kesla W 1-052.7 1715 1577 57.05% 21.87% 21.07%+0.52 +8.0 6
2017-08-19 @ Qarabag L 0-152.7 1577 1715 21.07% 21.87% 57.05%-0.52 -8.0 0
2017-08-20 Sumgayit W 1-052.7 1669 1560 53.71% 22.19% 24.11%+0.41 +9.0 6
2017-08-20 @ Gabala L 0-152.7 1560 1669 24.11% 22.19% 53.71%-0.41 -9.0 3
2017-08-20 Zira L 0-348.9 1559 1583 36.06% 22.72% 41.22%-0.07 -34.4 0
2017-08-20 @ Kapaz W 3-048.9 1583 1559 41.22% 22.72% 36.06%+0.07 +34.4 6
2017-08-25 Kapaz D 0-060.7 1507 1524 37.09% 22.73% 40.18%-0.04 +0.2 1
2017-08-25 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-060.7 1524 1507 40.18% 22.73% 37.09%+0.04 -0.2 1
2017-08-25 Sabail W 1-047.3 1569 1467 52.93% 22.25% 24.82%+0.39 +9.3 3
2017-08-25 @ Kesla L 0-147.3 1467 1569 24.82% 22.25% 52.93%-0.39 -9.3 3
2017-08-26 Gabala W 2-164.4 1723 1678 45.87% 22.62% 31.51%+0.19 +10.6 9
2017-08-26 @ Qarabag L 1-264.4 1678 1723 31.51% 22.62% 45.87%-0.19 -10.6 6
2017-08-26 Sumgayit W 3-155.6 1618 1551 48.57% 22.51% 28.92%+0.26 +17.2 9
2017-08-26 @ Zira L 1-355.6 1551 1618 28.92% 22.51% 48.57%-0.26 -17.2 3
2017-09-09 Kapaz W 3-263.7 1578 1524 46.97% 22.58% 30.45%+0.22 +9.8 6
2017-09-09 @ Kesla L 2-363.7 1524 1578 30.45% 22.58% 46.97%-0.22 -9.8 1
2017-09-09 Zira D 1-173.6 1667 1635 44.04% 22.67% 33.29%+0.14 -0.8 7
2017-09-09 @ Gabala D 1-173.6 1635 1667 33.29% 22.67% 44.04%-0.14 +0.8 10
2017-09-10 Neftchi Baku W 1-050.4 1534 1508 43.23% 22.69% 34.08%+0.12 +12.0 6
2017-09-10 @ Sumgayit L 0-150.4 1508 1534 34.08% 22.69% 43.23%-0.12 -12.0 1
2017-09-16 Sumgayit D 1-170.1 1588 1546 45.37% 22.63% 31.99%+0.17 -0.9 7
2017-09-16 @ Kesla D 1-170.1 1546 1588 31.99% 22.63% 45.37%-0.17 +0.9 7
2017-09-16 Zira L 1-256.9 1496 1635 22.13% 22.00% 55.87%-0.48 -7.9 1
2017-09-16 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-156.9 1635 1496 55.87% 22.00% 22.13%+0.48 +7.9 13
2017-09-17 Gabala L 1-350.0 1458 1666 16.15% 21.09% 62.76%-0.73 -10.3 3
2017-09-17 @ Sabail W 3-150.0 1666 1458 62.76% 21.09% 16.15%+0.73 +10.3 10
2017-09-17 Kapaz W 2-045.5 1734 1514 64.85% 20.71% 14.43%+0.81 +10.7 12
2017-09-17 @ Qarabag L 0-245.5 1514 1734 14.43% 20.71% 64.85%-0.81 -10.7 1
2017-09-22 Sumgayit W 4-150.6 1745 1547 62.93% 21.07% 16.00%+0.73 +14.5 15
2017-09-22 @ Qarabag L 1-450.6 1547 1745 16.00% 21.07% 62.93%-0.73 -14.4 7
2017-09-23 Kapaz W 1-050.5 1448 1504 31.79% 22.63% 45.58%-0.18 +15.1 6
2017-09-23 @ Sabail L 0-150.5 1504 1448 45.58% 22.63% 31.79%+0.18 -15.1 1
2017-09-23 Kesla D 1-172.5 1643 1587 47.26% 22.57% 30.17%+0.22 -1.2 14
2017-09-23 @ Zira D 1-172.5 1587 1643 30.17% 22.57% 47.26%-0.22 +1.2 8
2017-09-24 Neftchi Baku W 2-155.9 1676 1488 62.11% 21.20% 16.69%+0.70 +6.1 13
2017-09-24 @ Gabala L 1-255.9 1488 1676 16.69% 21.20% 62.11%-0.70 -6.1 1
2017-09-29 Kapaz L 0-258.5 1683 1488 62.60% 21.12% 16.28%+0.72 -38.0 13
2017-09-29 @ Gabala W 2-058.5 1488 1683 16.28% 21.12% 62.60%-0.72 +38.0 4
2017-09-29 Neftchi Baku L 0-253.0 1588 1481 53.51% 22.20% 24.28%+0.41 -32.8 8
2017-09-29 @ Kesla W 2-053.0 1481 1588 24.28% 22.20% 53.51%-0.41 +32.9 4
2017-09-30 Sumgayit L 0-243.3 1463 1532 30.04% 22.56% 47.39%-0.23 -20.5 6
2017-09-30 @ Sabail W 2-043.3 1532 1463 47.39% 22.56% 30.04%+0.23 +20.5 10
2017-10-01 Zira D 0-068.7 1759 1642 54.69% 22.10% 23.20%+0.44 -2.6 16
2017-10-01 @ Qarabag D 0-068.7 1642 1759 23.20% 22.10% 54.69%-0.44 +2.6 15
2017-10-13 Qarabag L 0-247.3 1555 1757 16.70% 21.20% 62.09%-0.70 -12.3 8
2017-10-13 @ Kesla W 2-047.3 1757 1555 62.09% 21.20% 16.70%+0.70 +12.3 19
2017-10-14 Gabala L 0-153.1 1553 1645 27.37% 22.43% 50.20%-0.31 -10.1 10
2017-10-14 @ Sumgayit W 1-053.1 1645 1553 50.20% 22.43% 27.37%+0.31 +10.1 16
2017-10-14 Kapaz W 3-045.6 1645 1526 54.84% 22.09% 23.07%+0.45 +23.8 18
2017-10-14 @ Zira L 0-345.6 1526 1645 23.07% 22.09% 54.84%-0.45 -23.8 4
2017-10-15 Neftchi Baku L 0-441.2 1442 1514 29.74% 22.55% 47.71%-0.24 -38.5 6
2017-10-15 @ Sabail W 4-041.2 1514 1442 47.71% 22.55% 29.74%+0.24 +38.5 7
2017-10-20 Kesla W 1-053.2 1404 1543 22.18% 22.00% 55.82%-0.48 +18.1 9
2017-10-20 @ Sabail L 0-153.2 1543 1404 55.82% 22.00% 22.18%+0.48 -18.1 8
2017-10-21 Neftchi Baku L 0-150.4 1503 1553 32.55% 22.65% 44.80%-0.16 -11.6 4
2017-10-21 @ Kapaz W 1-050.4 1553 1503 44.80% 22.65% 32.55%+0.16 +11.6 10
2017-10-21 Zira W 2-168.6 1543 1669 23.59% 22.14% 54.27%-0.43 +16.6 13
2017-10-21 @ Sumgayit L 1-268.6 1669 1543 54.27% 22.14% 23.59%+0.43 -16.6 18
2017-10-22 Qarabag W 1-063.6 1655 1769 24.83% 22.25% 52.92%-0.39 +17.2 19
2017-10-22 @ Gabala L 0-163.6 1769 1655 52.92% 22.25% 24.83%+0.39 -17.2 19
2017-10-27 Sabail W 1-045.7 1752 1422 72.90% 18.57% 8.53%+1.21 +3.4 22
2017-10-27 @ Qarabag L 0-145.7 1422 1752 8.53% 18.57% 72.90%-1.21 -3.3 9
2017-10-28 Gabala W 2-166.4 1652 1672 36.67% 22.72% 40.60%-0.05 +13.0 21
2017-10-28 @ Zira L 1-266.4 1672 1652 40.60% 22.72% 36.67%+0.05 -13.0 19
2017-10-28 Kapaz L 0-248.4 1525 1491 44.28% 22.66% 33.06%+0.14 -27.9 8
2017-10-28 @ Kesla W 2-048.4 1491 1525 33.06% 22.66% 44.28%-0.14 +27.9 7
2017-10-29 Sumgayit W 2-161.3 1564 1559 40.23% 22.73% 37.04%+0.04 +12.1 13
2017-10-29 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-261.3 1559 1564 37.04% 22.73% 40.23%-0.04 -12.1 13
2017-11-04 Sabail W 3-147.4 1659 1418 66.57% 20.35% 13.08%+0.89 +8.4 22
2017-11-04 @ Gabala L 1-347.4 1418 1659 13.08% 20.35% 66.57%-0.89 -8.4 9
2017-11-04 Kesla W 3-152.2 1547 1497 46.46% 22.60% 30.95%+0.20 +18.2 16
2017-11-04 @ Sumgayit L 1-352.2 1497 1547 30.95% 22.60% 46.46%-0.20 -18.2 8
2017-11-05 Neftchi Baku W 1-053.6 1665 1577 51.32% 22.36% 26.32%+0.34 +9.7 24
2017-11-05 @ Zira L 0-153.6 1577 1665 26.32% 22.36% 51.32%-0.34 -9.7 13
2017-11-05 Qarabag L 0-245.9 1519 1755 14.17% 20.65% 65.18%-0.83 -10.5 7
2017-11-05 @ Kapaz W 2-045.9 1755 1519 65.18% 20.65% 14.17%+0.83 +10.5 25
2017-11-17 Sumgayit W 2-047.2 1765 1566 63.12% 21.03% 15.85%+0.74 +11.7 28
2017-11-17 @ Qarabag L 0-247.2 1566 1765 15.85% 21.03% 63.12%-0.74 -11.7 16
2017-11-18 Sabail L 2-363.6 1508 1410 52.52% 22.28% 25.20%+0.38 -15.3 7
2017-11-18 @ Kapaz W 3-263.6 1410 1508 25.20% 22.28% 52.52%-0.38 +15.3 12
2017-11-18 Zira L 0-148.5 1479 1675 17.13% 21.29% 61.58%-0.68 -6.7 8
2017-11-18 @ Kesla W 1-048.5 1675 1479 61.58% 21.29% 17.13%+0.68 +6.7 27
2017-11-19 Gabala L 2-365.8 1567 1667 26.35% 22.36% 51.29%-0.34 -8.7 13
2017-11-19 @ Neftchi Baku W 3-265.8 1667 1567 51.29% 22.36% 26.35%+0.34 +8.7 25
2017-11-25 Gabala L 1-647.5 1493 1676 18.17% 21.46% 60.36%-0.64 -25.7 7
2017-11-25 @ Kapaz W 6-147.5 1676 1493 60.36% 21.46% 18.17%+0.64 +25.7 28
2017-11-25 Kesla W 3-150.4 1558 1472 51.00% 22.38% 26.62%+0.33 +16.0 16
2017-11-25 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-350.4 1472 1558 26.62% 22.38% 51.00%-0.33 -16.0 8
2017-11-26 Qarabag L 2-368.3 1681 1777 26.90% 22.40% 50.71%-0.32 -8.9 27
2017-11-26 @ Zira W 3-268.3 1777 1681 50.71% 22.40% 26.90%+0.32 +8.9 31
2017-11-26 Sabail D 0-058.9 1554 1425 55.98% 21.98% 22.04%+0.48 -2.8 17
2017-11-26 @ Sumgayit D 0-058.9 1425 1554 22.04% 21.98% 55.98%-0.48 +2.8 13
2017-12-01 Neftchi Baku W 1-051.3 1786 1574 64.18% 20.84% 14.98%+0.78 +5.9 34
2017-12-01 @ Qarabag L 0-151.3 1574 1786 14.98% 20.84% 64.18%-0.78 -5.9 16
2017-12-02 Sumgayit L 0-342.3 1467 1551 28.33% 22.48% 49.19%-0.28 -28.3 7
2017-12-02 @ Kapaz W 3-042.3 1551 1467 49.19% 22.48% 28.33%+0.28 +28.3 20
2017-12-03 Kesla W 3-041.6 1702 1456 66.96% 20.26% 12.78%+0.90 +13.8 31
2017-12-03 @ Gabala L 0-341.6 1456 1702 12.78% 20.26% 66.96%-0.90 -13.8 8
2017-12-03 Zira L 0-145.7 1428 1672 13.63% 20.50% 65.87%-0.86 -5.4 13
2017-12-03 @ Sabail W 1-045.7 1672 1428 65.87% 20.50% 13.63%+0.86 +5.4 30
2017-12-08 Qarabag L 0-242.0 1423 1792 7.49% 17.98% 74.53%-1.30 -5.5 13
2017-12-08 @ Sabail W 2-042.0 1792 1423 74.53% 17.98% 7.49%+1.30 +5.5 37
2018-02-10 Gabala D 0-069.2 1797 1716 50.51% 22.41% 27.08%+0.32 -1.9 38
2018-02-10 @ Qarabag D 0-069.2 1716 1797 27.08% 22.41% 50.51%-0.32 +1.9 32
2018-02-10 Sumgayit D 1-173.0 1678 1579 52.53% 22.28% 25.19%+0.38 -2.0 31
2018-02-10 @ Zira D 1-173.0 1579 1678 25.19% 22.28% 52.53%-0.38 +2.0 21
2018-02-11 Kapaz W 1-045.3 1568 1439 56.06% 21.98% 21.96%+0.49 +8.3 19
2018-02-11 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-145.3 1439 1568 21.96% 21.98% 56.06%-0.49 -8.3 7
2018-02-11 Sabail D 1-160.6 1442 1417 43.07% 22.69% 34.24%+0.11 -0.6 9
2018-02-11 @ Kesla D 1-160.6 1417 1442 34.24% 22.69% 43.07%-0.11 +0.6 14
2018-02-17 Neftchi Baku W 2-050.9 1581 1577 40.20% 22.73% 37.07%+0.04 +24.2 24
2018-02-17 @ Sumgayit L 0-250.9 1577 1581 37.07% 22.73% 40.20%-0.04 -24.2 19
2018-02-17 Zira W 2-164.5 1717 1676 45.31% 22.64% 32.05%+0.17 +10.8 35
2018-02-17 @ Gabala L 1-264.5 1676 1717 32.05% 22.64% 45.31%-0.17 -10.8 31
2018-02-18 Qarabag L 0-146.0 1418 1796 7.19% 17.79% 75.02%-1.33 -2.8 14
2018-02-18 @ Sabail W 1-046.0 1796 1418 75.02% 17.79% 7.19%+1.33 +2.8 41
2018-02-18 Kesla L 0-145.6 1431 1442 37.92% 22.73% 39.35%-0.02 -13.1 7
2018-02-18 @ Kapaz W 1-045.6 1442 1431 39.35% 22.73% 37.92%+0.02 +13.1 12
2018-02-24 Gabala W 2-171.0 1415 1728 9.81% 19.18% 71.01%-1.10 +21.4 17
2018-02-24 @ Sabail L 1-271.0 1728 1415 71.01% 19.18% 9.81%+1.10 -21.3 35
2018-02-24 Zira D 1-172.3 1552 1665 24.99% 22.26% 52.75%-0.38 +2.0 20
2018-02-24 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-172.3 1665 1552 52.75% 22.26% 24.99%+0.38 -2.0 32
2018-02-25 Kapaz W 1-045.7 1798 1418 75.89% 17.44% 6.67%+1.39 +2.6 44
2018-02-25 @ Qarabag L 0-145.7 1418 1798 6.67% 17.44% 75.89%-1.39 -2.6 7
2018-02-25 Sumgayit L 1-254.2 1455 1606 21.09% 21.88% 57.04%-0.52 -7.6 12
2018-02-25 @ Kesla W 2-154.2 1606 1455 57.04% 21.88% 21.09%+0.52 +7.6 27
2018-03-03 Qarabag D 1-175.0 1613 1801 17.78% 21.40% 60.82%-0.65 +3.3 28
2018-03-03 @ Sumgayit D 1-175.0 1801 1613 60.82% 21.40% 17.78%+0.65 -3.3 45
2018-03-03 Sabail W 2-153.1 1415 1436 36.47% 22.72% 40.81%-0.05 +13.0 10
2018-03-03 @ Kapaz L 1-253.1 1436 1415 40.81% 22.72% 36.47%+0.05 -13.0 17
2018-03-04 Neftchi Baku L 1-270.7 1707 1554 58.54% 21.70% 19.76%+0.57 -17.9 35
2018-03-04 @ Gabala W 2-170.7 1554 1707 19.76% 21.70% 58.54%-0.57 +17.8 23
2018-03-04 Kesla L 1-268.6 1663 1447 64.50% 20.78% 14.72%+0.80 -19.5 32
2018-03-04 @ Zira W 2-168.6 1447 1663 14.72% 20.78% 64.50%-0.80 +19.5 15
2018-03-09 Gabala L 0-145.8 1428 1689 12.59% 20.20% 67.21%-0.92 -5.0 10
2018-03-09 @ Kapaz W 1-045.8 1689 1428 67.21% 20.20% 12.59%+0.92 +5.0 38
2018-03-09 Neftchi Baku L 2-360.0 1467 1572 25.80% 22.32% 51.87%-0.36 -8.6 15
2018-03-09 @ Kesla W 3-260.0 1572 1467 51.87% 22.32% 25.80%+0.36 +8.6 26
2018-03-10 Sumgayit L 0-144.9 1423 1616 17.35% 21.32% 61.33%-0.67 -6.8 17
2018-03-10 @ Sabail W 1-044.9 1616 1423 61.33% 21.32% 17.35%+0.67 +6.7 31
2018-03-10 Zira W 2-049.4 1798 1643 58.71% 21.68% 19.61%+0.58 +14.2 48
2018-03-10 @ Qarabag L 0-249.4 1643 1798 19.61% 21.68% 58.71%-0.58 -14.2 32
2018-03-13 Gabala D 1-171.2 1458 1694 14.19% 20.65% 65.16%-0.82 +4.0 16
2018-03-13 @ Kesla D 1-171.2 1694 1458 65.16% 20.65% 14.19%+0.82 -4.0 39
2018-03-14 Kapaz W 2-151.8 1623 1423 63.13% 21.03% 15.84%+0.74 +5.8 34
2018-03-14 @ Sumgayit L 1-251.8 1423 1623 15.84% 21.03% 63.13%-0.74 -5.8 10
2018-03-14 Qarabag D 0-069.1 1581 1812 14.52% 20.73% 64.75%-0.81 +4.4 27
2018-03-14 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-069.1 1812 1581 64.75% 20.73% 14.52%+0.81 -4.4 49
2018-03-14 Sabail D 1-167.7 1629 1417 64.24% 20.83% 14.93%+0.79 -3.8 33
2018-03-14 @ Zira D 1-167.7 1417 1629 14.93% 20.83% 64.24%-0.79 +3.8 18
2018-04-01 Kesla D 1-174.5 1807 1462 73.84% 18.24% 7.92%+1.26 -5.2 50
2018-04-01 @ Qarabag D 1-174.5 1462 1807 7.92% 18.24% 73.84%-1.26 +5.2 17
2018-04-01 Zira D 0-061.6 1417 1625 16.16% 21.10% 62.74%-0.73 +4.0 11
2018-04-01 @ Kapaz D 0-061.6 1625 1417 62.74% 21.10% 16.16%+0.73 -4.0 34
2018-04-02 Neftchi Baku L 0-240.3 1420 1585 19.77% 21.71% 58.52%-0.57 -14.3 18
2018-04-02 @ Sabail W 2-040.3 1585 1420 58.52% 21.71% 19.77%+0.57 +14.3 30
2018-04-02 Sumgayit D 1-173.8 1690 1629 47.88% 22.54% 29.58%+0.24 -1.3 40
2018-04-02 @ Gabala D 1-173.8 1629 1690 29.58% 22.54% 47.88%-0.24 +1.3 35
2018-04-07 Kapaz D 1-161.5 1468 1421 45.93% 22.62% 31.45%+0.19 -1.0 18
2018-04-07 @ Kesla D 1-161.5 1421 1468 31.45% 22.62% 45.93%-0.19 +1.0 12
2018-04-07 Sabail W 1-045.3 1802 1406 76.73% 17.08% 6.19%+1.44 +2.4 53
2018-04-07 @ Qarabag L 0-145.3 1406 1802 6.19% 17.08% 76.73%-1.44 -2.4 18
2018-04-08 Gabala D 1-173.7 1621 1689 30.34% 22.58% 47.08%-0.22 +1.2 35
2018-04-08 @ Zira D 1-173.7 1689 1621 47.08% 22.58% 30.34%+0.22 -1.2 41
2018-04-08 Sumgayit D 2-279.3 1600 1630 35.17% 22.71% 42.13%-0.09 +0.4 31
2018-04-08 @ Neftchi Baku D 2-279.3 1630 1600 42.13% 22.71% 35.17%+0.09 -0.4 36
2018-04-14 Qarabag L 0-146.1 1422 1805 7.03% 17.68% 75.29%-1.35 -2.7 12
2018-04-14 @ Kapaz W 1-046.1 1805 1422 75.29% 17.68% 7.03%+1.35 +2.7 56
2018-04-15 Neftchi Baku L 0-352.9 1623 1600 42.73% 22.70% 34.57%+0.10 -39.3 35
2018-04-15 @ Zira W 3-052.9 1600 1623 34.57% 22.70% 42.73%-0.10 +39.3 34
2018-04-15 Sabail D 1-169.7 1688 1404 69.83% 19.53% 10.64%+1.04 -4.7 42
2018-04-15 @ Gabala D 1-169.7 1404 1688 10.64% 19.53% 69.83%-1.04 +4.7 19
2018-04-15 Kesla W 2-154.6 1630 1466 59.65% 21.56% 18.78%+0.61 +6.8 39
2018-04-15 @ Sumgayit L 1-254.6 1466 1630 18.78% 21.56% 59.65%-0.61 -6.8 18
2018-04-21 Zira W 2-163.5 1460 1583 23.81% 22.16% 54.03%-0.42 +16.6 21
2018-04-21 @ Kesla L 1-263.5 1583 1460 54.03% 22.16% 23.81%+0.42 -16.6 35
2018-04-22 Gabala W 1-060.2 1639 1683 33.42% 22.67% 43.91%-0.13 +14.7 37
2018-04-22 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-160.2 1683 1639 43.91% 22.67% 33.42%+0.13 -14.7 42
2018-04-22 Kapaz D 1-159.8 1408 1420 37.93% 22.73% 39.34%-0.02 +0.1 20
2018-04-22 @ Sabail D 1-159.8 1420 1408 39.34% 22.73% 37.93%+0.02 -0.1 13
2018-04-22 Qarabag L 0-153.4 1637 1807 19.25% 21.63% 59.11%-0.59 -7.4 39
2018-04-22 @ Sumgayit W 1-053.4 1807 1637 59.11% 21.63% 19.25%+0.59 +7.4 59
2018-04-27 Qarabag L 1-258.1 1567 1815 13.39% 20.44% 66.17%-0.87 -5.0 35
2018-04-27 @ Zira W 2-158.1 1815 1567 66.17% 20.44% 13.39%+0.87 +5.0 62
2018-04-28 Kapaz W 3-039.4 1668 1419 67.22% 20.20% 12.58%+0.92 +13.6 45
2018-04-28 @ Gabala L 0-339.4 1419 1668 12.58% 20.20% 67.22%-0.92 -13.6 13
2018-04-28 Neftchi Baku W 2-168.0 1476 1654 18.63% 21.54% 59.83%-0.62 +18.2 24
2018-04-28 @ Kesla L 1-268.0 1654 1476 59.83% 21.54% 18.63%+0.62 -18.2 37
2018-04-29 Sabail L 1-266.2 1629 1409 64.95% 20.69% 14.36%+0.82 -19.7 39
2018-04-29 @ Sumgayit W 2-166.2 1409 1629 14.36% 20.69% 64.95%-0.82 +19.7 23
2018-05-04 Sumgayit D 1-166.5 1406 1610 16.49% 21.16% 62.34%-0.71 +3.5 14
2018-05-04 @ Kapaz D 1-166.5 1610 1406 62.34% 21.16% 16.49%+0.71 -3.5 40
2018-05-05 Kesla D 1-171.7 1682 1494 61.97% 21.22% 16.81%+0.70 -3.5 46
2018-05-05 @ Gabala D 1-171.7 1494 1682 16.81% 21.22% 61.97%-0.70 +3.5 25
2018-05-05 Zira L 0-144.9 1428 1562 22.78% 22.06% 55.16%-0.46 -8.6 23
2018-05-05 @ Sabail W 1-044.9 1562 1428 55.16% 22.06% 22.78%+0.46 +8.6 38
2018-05-06 Neftchi Baku L 0-166.1 1820 1636 61.65% 21.27% 17.07%+0.68 -19.9 62
2018-05-06 @ Qarabag W 1-066.1 1636 1820 17.07% 21.27% 61.65%-0.68 +19.9 40
2018-05-12 Gabala L 0-251.3 1606 1678 29.74% 22.55% 47.71%-0.24 -20.3 40
2018-05-12 @ Sumgayit W 2-051.3 1678 1606 47.71% 22.55% 29.74%+0.24 +20.3 49
2018-05-12 Kapaz W 2-150.5 1570 1409 59.40% 21.60% 19.00%+0.60 +6.9 41
2018-05-12 @ Zira L 1-250.5 1409 1570 19.00% 21.60% 59.40%-0.60 -6.9 14
2018-05-12 Qarabag W 3-061.4 1498 1800 10.35% 19.41% 70.23%-1.06 +61.4 28
2018-05-12 @ Kesla L 0-361.4 1800 1498 70.23% 19.41% 10.35%+1.06 -61.4 62
2018-05-12 Sabail W 3-147.4 1656 1420 66.20% 20.43% 13.37%+0.87 +8.6 43
2018-05-12 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-347.4 1420 1656 13.37% 20.43% 66.20%-0.87 -8.6 23
2018-05-20 Neftchi Baku L 1-251.3 1402 1664 12.55% 20.19% 67.26%-0.92 -4.7 14
2018-05-20 @ Kapaz W 2-151.3 1664 1402 67.26% 20.19% 12.55%+0.92 +4.7 46
2018-05-20 Kesla L 0-143.7 1411 1559 21.31% 21.90% 56.79%-0.51 -8.1 23
2018-05-20 @ Sabail W 1-043.7 1559 1411 56.79% 21.90% 21.31%+0.51 +8.1 31
2018-05-20 Zira L 1-263.6 1586 1577 40.75% 22.72% 36.53%+0.05 -13.0 40
2018-05-20 @ Sumgayit W 2-163.6 1577 1586 36.53% 22.72% 40.75%-0.05 +13.0 44
2018-05-21 Qarabag L 0-158.1 1699 1738 33.95% 22.68% 43.37%-0.12 -12.0 49
2018-05-21 @ Gabala W 1-058.1 1738 1699 43.37% 22.68% 33.95%+0.12 +12.0 65

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2018-02-24 9.81% @ Sabail 1415 2 Gabala 1728 1
2 2018-05-12 10.35% @ Kesla 1498 3 Qarabag 1800 0
3 2018-04-29 14.36% Sabail 1409 2 @ Sumgayit 1629 1
4 2018-03-04 14.72% Kesla 1447 2 @ Zira 1663 1
5 2017-09-29 16.28% Kapaz 1488 2 @ Gabala 1683 0
6 2018-05-06 17.07% Neftchi Baku 1636 1 @ Qarabag 1820 0
7 2018-04-28 18.63% @ Kesla 1476 2 Neftchi Baku 1654 1
8 2018-03-04 19.76% Neftchi Baku 1554 2 @ Gabala 1707 1
9 2017-10-20 22.18% @ Sabail 1404 1 Kesla 1543 0
10 2017-10-21 23.59% @ Sumgayit 1543 2 Zira 1669 1
11 2018-04-21 23.81% @ Kesla 1460 2 Zira 1583 1
12 2017-09-29 24.28% Neftchi Baku 1481 2 @ Kesla 1588 0
13 2017-10-22 24.83% @ Gabala 1655 1 Qarabag 1769 0
14 2017-11-18 25.20% Sabail 1410 3 @ Kapaz 1508 2
15 2017-08-19 29.80% @ Sabail 1451 1 Neftchi Baku 1523 0
16 2017-09-23 31.79% @ Sabail 1448 1 Kapaz 1504 0
17 2017-10-28 33.06% Kapaz 1491 2 @ Kesla 1525 0
18 2018-04-22 33.42% @ Neftchi Baku 1639 1 Gabala 1683 0
19 2018-04-15 34.57% Neftchi Baku 1600 3 @ Zira 1623 0
20 2017-08-13 35.98% @ Sumgayit 1547 2 Kapaz 1572 1
21 2018-03-03 36.47% @ Kapaz 1415 2 Sabail 1436 1
22 2018-05-20 36.53% Zira 1577 2 @ Sumgayit 1586 1
23 2017-10-28 36.67% @ Zira 1652 2 Gabala 1672 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-05-12 61.42 @ Kesla 3 1498 10.35% Qarabag 0 1800 70.23% 19.41%
2 2018-04-15 39.33 Neftchi Baku 3 1600 34.57% @ Zira 0 1623 42.73% 22.70%
3 2017-10-15 38.54 Neftchi Baku 4 1514 47.71% @ Sabail 0 1442 29.74% 22.55%
4 2017-09-29 38.01 Kapaz 2 1488 16.28% @ Gabala 0 1683 62.60% 21.12%
5 2017-08-20 34.41 Zira 3 1583 41.22% @ Kapaz 0 1559 36.06% 22.72%
6 2017-09-29 32.86 Neftchi Baku 2 1481 24.28% @ Kesla 0 1588 53.51% 22.20%
7 2017-12-02 28.35 Sumgayit 3 1551 49.19% @ Kapaz 0 1467 28.33% 22.48%
8 2017-10-28 27.88 Kapaz 2 1491 33.06% @ Kesla 0 1525 44.28% 22.66%
9 2017-11-25 25.70 Gabala 6 1676 60.36% @ Kapaz 1 1493 18.17% 21.46%
10 2018-02-17 24.21 @ Sumgayit 2 1581 40.20% Neftchi Baku 0 1577 37.07% 22.73%
11 2017-10-14 23.82 @ Zira 3 1645 54.84% Kapaz 0 1526 23.07% 22.09%
12 2018-02-24 21.35 @ Sabail 2 1415 9.81% Gabala 1 1728 71.01% 19.18%
13 2017-09-30 20.48 Sumgayit 2 1532 47.39% @ Sabail 0 1463 30.04% 22.56%
14 2018-05-12 20.31 Gabala 2 1678 47.71% @ Sumgayit 0 1606 29.74% 22.55%
15 2018-05-06 19.87 Neftchi Baku 1 1636 17.07% @ Qarabag 0 1820 61.65% 21.27%
16 2018-04-29 19.67 Sabail 2 1409 14.36% @ Sumgayit 1 1629 64.95% 20.69%
17 2018-03-04 19.55 Kesla 2 1447 14.72% @ Zira 1 1663 64.50% 20.78%
18 2018-04-28 18.21 @ Kesla 2 1476 18.63% Neftchi Baku 1 1654 59.83% 21.54%
19 2017-11-04 18.16 @ Sumgayit 3 1547 46.46% Kesla 1 1497 30.95% 22.60%
20 2017-10-20 18.11 @ Sabail 1 1404 22.18% Kesla 0 1543 55.82% 22.00%
21 2018-03-04 17.85 Neftchi Baku 2 1554 19.76% @ Gabala 1 1707 58.54% 21.70%
22 2017-10-22 17.25 @ Gabala 1 1655 24.83% Qarabag 0 1769 52.92% 22.25%
23 2017-08-26 17.19 @ Zira 3 1618 48.57% Sumgayit 1 1551 28.92% 22.51%
24 2017-10-21 16.64 @ Sumgayit 2 1543 23.59% Zira 1 1669 54.27% 22.14%
25 2018-04-21 16.57 @ Kesla 2 1460 23.81% Zira 1 1583 54.03% 22.16%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-04-08 79.3 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1600 35.17% Sumgayit 2 1630 42.13% 22.71%
2 2018-03-03 75.0 @ Sumgayit 1 1613 17.78% Qarabag 1 1801 60.82% 21.40%
3 2018-04-01 74.5 @ Qarabag 1 1807 73.84% Kesla 1 1462 7.92% 18.24%
4 2018-04-02 73.8 @ Gabala 1 1690 47.88% Sumgayit 1 1629 29.58% 22.54%
5 2018-04-08 73.7 @ Zira 1 1621 30.34% Gabala 1 1689 47.08% 22.58%
6 2017-09-09 73.6 @ Gabala 1 1667 44.04% Zira 1 1635 33.29% 22.67%
7 2018-02-10 73.0 @ Zira 1 1678 52.53% Sumgayit 1 1579 25.19% 22.28%
8 2017-09-23 72.5 @ Zira 1 1643 47.26% Kesla 1 1587 30.17% 22.57%
9 2018-02-24 72.3 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1552 24.99% Zira 1 1665 52.75% 22.26%
10 2018-05-05 71.7 @ Gabala 1 1682 61.97% Kesla 1 1494 16.81% 21.22%
11 2018-03-13 71.2 @ Kesla 1 1458 14.19% Gabala 1 1694 65.16% 20.65%
12 2018-02-24 71.0 @ Sabail 2 1415 9.81% Gabala 1 1728 71.01% 19.18%
13 2018-03-04 70.7 Neftchi Baku 2 1554 19.76% @ Gabala 1 1707 58.54% 21.70%
14 2017-09-16 70.1 @ Kesla 1 1588 45.37% Sumgayit 1 1546 31.99% 22.63%
15 2018-04-15 69.7 @ Gabala 1 1688 69.83% Sabail 1 1404 10.64% 19.53%
16 2018-02-10 69.2 @ Qarabag 0 1797 50.51% Gabala 0 1716 27.08% 22.41%
17 2018-03-14 69.1 @ Neftchi Baku 0 1581 14.52% Qarabag 0 1812 64.75% 20.73%
18 2017-10-01 68.7 @ Qarabag 0 1759 54.69% Zira 0 1642 23.20% 22.10%
19 2017-10-21 68.6 @ Sumgayit 2 1543 23.59% Zira 1 1669 54.27% 22.14%
20 2018-03-04 68.6 Kesla 2 1447 14.72% @ Zira 1 1663 64.50% 20.78%
21 2017-11-26 68.3 Qarabag 3 1777 50.71% @ Zira 2 1681 26.90% 22.40%
22 2018-04-28 68.0 @ Kesla 2 1476 18.63% Neftchi Baku 1 1654 59.83% 21.54%
23 2018-03-14 67.7 @ Zira 1 1629 64.24% Sabail 1 1417 14.93% 20.83%
24 2018-05-04 66.5 @ Kapaz 1 1406 16.49% Sumgayit 1 1610 62.34% 21.16%
25 2017-10-28 66.4 @ Zira 2 1652 36.67% Gabala 1 1672 40.60% 22.72%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-04-28 39.4 @ Gabala 3 1668 67.22% Kapaz 0 1419 12.58% 20.20%
2 2018-04-02 40.3 Neftchi Baku 2 1585 58.52% @ Sabail 0 1420 19.77% 21.71%
3 2017-10-15 41.2 Neftchi Baku 4 1514 47.71% @ Sabail 0 1442 29.74% 22.55%
4 2017-12-03 41.6 @ Gabala 3 1702 66.96% Kesla 0 1456 12.78% 20.26%
5 2017-12-08 42.0 Qarabag 2 1792 74.53% @ Sabail 0 1423 7.49% 17.98%
6 2017-12-02 42.3 Sumgayit 3 1551 49.19% @ Kapaz 0 1467 28.33% 22.48%
7 2017-09-30 43.3 Sumgayit 2 1532 47.39% @ Sabail 0 1463 30.04% 22.56%
8 2018-05-20 43.7 Kesla 1 1559 56.79% @ Sabail 0 1411 21.31% 21.90%
9 2018-03-10 44.9 Sumgayit 1 1616 61.33% @ Sabail 0 1423 17.35% 21.32%
10 2018-05-05 44.9 Zira 1 1562 55.16% @ Sabail 0 1428 22.78% 22.06%
11 2018-02-11 45.3 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1568 56.06% Kapaz 0 1439 21.96% 21.98%
12 2018-04-07 45.3 @ Qarabag 1 1802 76.73% Sabail 0 1406 6.19% 17.08%
13 2017-09-17 45.5 @ Qarabag 2 1734 64.85% Kapaz 0 1514 14.43% 20.71%
14 2017-10-14 45.6 @ Zira 3 1645 54.84% Kapaz 0 1526 23.07% 22.09%
15 2018-02-18 45.6 Kesla 1 1442 39.35% @ Kapaz 0 1431 37.92% 22.73%
16 2017-10-27 45.7 @ Qarabag 1 1752 72.90% Sabail 0 1422 8.53% 18.57%
17 2017-12-03 45.7 Zira 1 1672 65.87% @ Sabail 0 1428 13.63% 20.50%
18 2018-02-25 45.7 @ Qarabag 1 1798 75.89% Kapaz 0 1418 6.67% 17.44%
19 2018-03-09 45.8 Gabala 1 1689 67.21% @ Kapaz 0 1428 12.59% 20.20%
20 2017-11-05 45.9 Qarabag 2 1755 65.18% @ Kapaz 0 1519 14.17% 20.65%
21 2018-02-18 46.0 Qarabag 1 1796 75.02% @ Sabail 0 1418 7.19% 17.79%
22 2018-04-14 46.1 Qarabag 1 1805 75.29% @ Kapaz 0 1422 7.03% 17.68%
23 2017-11-17 47.2 @ Qarabag 2 1765 63.12% Sumgayit 0 1566 15.85% 21.03%
24 2017-08-25 47.3 @ Kesla 1 1569 52.93% Sabail 0 1467 24.82% 22.25%
25 2017-10-13 47.3 Qarabag 2 1757 62.09% @ Kesla 0 1555 16.70% 21.20%