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2016-17 Azerbaijan Premier League Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Qarabag

62 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 2015-16

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Qarabag

4.33 points above expected

62 points · 57.67 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

AZAL

13.65 points below expected

10 points · 23.65 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Qarabag Champion 28 19 5 4 62 46 14 +32 57.67 +4.33
2 Gabala 28 14 10 4 52 48 21 +27 53.32 -1.32
3 Inter Baku 28 11 10 7 43 39 33 +6 42.73 +0.27
4 Zira 28 9 10 9 37 28 28 0 34.32 +2.68
5 Kapaz 28 9 9 10 36 24 27 -3 34.24 +1.76
6 Sumgayit 28 9 8 11 35 28 35 -7 31.40 +3.60
7 Neftchi Baku 28 9 3 16 30 26 44 -18 29.44 +0.56
8 AZAL 28 1 7 20 10 13 50 -37 23.65 -13.65

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Qarabag 62 57.67 +4.33
2 Sumgayit 35 31.40 +3.60
3 Zira 37 34.32 +2.68
4 Kapaz 36 34.24 +1.76
5 Neftchi Baku 30 29.44 +0.56

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 AZAL 10 23.65 -13.65
2 Gabala 52 53.32 -1.32
3 Inter Baku 43 42.73 +0.27
4 Neftchi Baku 30 29.44 +0.56
5 Kapaz 36 34.24 +1.76

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kapaz 4 Apr 9 – Apr 29 1 in 57
2 Zira 3 Feb 27 – Mar 13 1 in 41
3 Gabala 5 Sep 10 – Oct 2 1 in 30
4 Neftchi Baku 2 Feb 9 – Feb 13 1 in 21
5 Qarabag 6 Oct 15 – Nov 29 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Neftchi Baku 5 Aug 14 – Sep 27 1 in 118
2 AZAL 6 Jan 29 – Feb 27 1 in 38
3 Qarabag 2 Feb 19 – Feb 28 1 in 19
4 Sumgayit 4 Feb 27 – Mar 18 1 in 13
5 Kapaz 4 Dec 17 – Feb 12 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inter Baku 10 Aug 7 – Oct 30 1 in 57
2 Sumgayit 7 Nov 5 – Feb 9 1 in 52
3 Zira 6 Mar 19 – Apr 29 1 in 29
4 Gabala 12 Aug 8 – Nov 19 1 in 15
5 Kapaz 5 Aug 13 – Sep 25 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gabala 5 Mar 14 – Apr 16 1 in 64
2 AZAL 14 Jan 29 – Apr 29 1 in 21
3 Zira 6 Mar 13 – Apr 23 1 in 20
4 Kapaz 8 Dec 17 – Mar 13 1 in 19
5 Neftchi Baku 5 Aug 14 – Sep 27 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Qarabag 1785 62 +22 13 10.4 +2.6
Gabala 1701 52 -29 5 9.0 -4.0
Inter Baku 1580 43 -25 4 6.6 -2.6
Zira 1556 37 +18 7 6.7 +0.3
Kapaz 1551 36 +43 12 6.2 +5.8
Sumgayit 1504 35 +29 10 5.7 +4.3
Neftchi Baku 1484 30 -8 4 5.5 -1.5
AZAL 1359 10 -50 0 4.7 -4.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AZA GAB IB KAP NB QAR SUM ZIR
AZAL —
0-2-2
2.15
0-0-4
3.13
0-2-2
4.00
1-0-3
4.68
0-0-4
1.91
0-2-2
4.42
0-1-3
3.93
Gabala
2-2-0
9.05
 —
2-2-0
6.80
2-1-1
7.97
3-0-1
8.23
2-1-1
4.73
1-2-1
8.40
2-2-0
8.00
Inter Baku
4-0-0
7.88
0-2-2
4.09
 —
1-2-1
6.45
1-0-3
7.50
2-1-1
2.96
3-1-0
7.18
0-4-0
6.68
Kapaz
2-2-0
6.90
1-1-2
3.03
1-2-1
4.44
 —
2-1-1
6.09
0-1-3
2.48
1-2-1
5.94
2-0-2
5.06
Neftchi Baku
3-0-1
6.19
1-0-3
2.89
3-0-1
3.47
1-1-2
4.77
 —
0-1-3
2.29
1-0-3
5.31
0-1-3
5.07
Qarabag
4-0-0
9.36
1-1-2
6.13
1-1-2
8.07
3-1-0
8.65
3-1-0
8.88
 —
4-0-0
8.69
3-1-0
8.45
Sumgayit
2-2-0
6.46
1-2-1
2.68
0-1-3
3.75
1-2-1
4.93
3-0-1
5.54
0-0-4
2.45
 —
2-1-1
4.89
Zira
3-1-0
6.96
0-2-2
3.03
0-4-0
4.22
2-0-2
5.80
3-1-0
5.81
0-1-3
2.65
1-1-2
5.97
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +12.2
Allowed 0.87 -12.2
Differential 0.97 +6.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.04%10.27%9.82%2.68%0.89%0.89%32.59%
110.27%15.18%8.04%2.23%0.89%—36.61%
29.82%8.04%4.46%———22.32%
32.68%2.23%——0.45%—5.36%
40.89%0.89%—0.45%——2.23%
5+0.89%—————0.89%
Total32.59%36.61%22.32%5.36%2.23%0.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.12 +0.00
SD 1.13 1.13 1.78
CV 1.01 1.01 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%21.43%7.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%53.57%
13.57%17.86%17.86%7.14%——46.43%
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%39.29%25.00%17.86%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.46 1.79 -1.32
SD 0.51 1.32 1.47
CV 1.09 0.74 —
Max 1 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%3.57%———17.86%
17.14%17.86%7.14%———32.14%
225.00%3.57%7.14%———35.71%
33.57%—————3.57%
4—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total50.00%28.57%17.86%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 0.75 +0.96
SD 1.63 0.89 1.88
CV 0.95 1.18 —
Max 8 3 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%——21.43%
110.71%17.86%7.14%3.57%——39.29%
2—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
33.57%7.14%——3.57%—14.29%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total25.00%46.43%17.86%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.18 +0.21
SD 1.10 1.02 1.40
CV 0.79 0.87 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%10.71%10.71%———35.71%
114.29%14.29%7.14%3.57%3.57%—42.86%
214.29%3.57%3.57%———21.43%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total42.86%28.57%21.43%3.57%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 0.96 -0.11
SD 0.76 1.07 1.37
CV 0.88 1.11 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%21.43%3.57%—3.57%42.86%
110.71%3.57%14.29%—3.57%—32.14%
27.14%7.14%3.57%———17.86%
3—3.57%————3.57%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%39.29%3.57%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.57 -0.64
SD 1.05 1.62 2.23
CV 1.13 1.03 —
Max 4 8 +4
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%7.14%———21.43%
114.29%7.14%3.57%———25.00%
217.86%17.86%————35.71%
310.71%—————10.71%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total60.71%28.57%10.71%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.50 +1.14
SD 1.37 0.69 1.74
CV 0.83 1.39 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%14.29%7.14%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
110.71%17.86%7.14%3.57%——39.29%
27.14%10.71%7.14%———25.00%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%46.43%21.43%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.25 -0.25
SD 0.86 1.00 1.48
CV 0.86 0.80 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%14.29%17.86%———35.71%
110.71%25.00%————35.71%
27.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%50.00%25.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.00 +0.00
SD 0.94 0.72 1.36
CV 0.94 0.72 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Qarabag 1785 62 57.67 +4.33 77.0% 43 47 54 57 62 67 70
Gabala 1701 52 53.32 -1.32 46.0% 39 43 50 54 58 62 66
Inter Baku 1580 43 42.73 +0.27 55.0% 27 32 39 43 47 51 66
Zira 1556 37 34.32 +2.68 70.0% 17 26 30 35 38 44 50
Kapaz 1551 36 34.24 +1.76 63.0% 19 24 30 34 38 45 52
Sumgayit 1504 35 31.40 +3.60 72.0% 15 21 27 31 36 42 54
Neftchi Baku 1484 30 29.44 +0.56 55.0% 14 19 26 30 33 39 44
AZAL 1359 10 23.65 -13.65 0.0% 14 15 19 24 27 31 36

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7.5% * Slight Edge: 7.5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+20.54%
Clear Edge
46.43%27.68%25.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge
202 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
072.38600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.36 goals
Neutral
-2+0.36+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.34 * Runaway: 0.34 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
67%
Qarabag, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Runaway
00.250.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.77 * Some Luck: 4.77 to 7.15 * Lucky: 7.15 to 9.54 * Wild Swing: 9.54 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.68 * Close: 0.68 to 1.01 * Off: 1.01 to 1.35 * Way Off: 1.35 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.36 points
Some Luck
05.9615
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.00
Pinpoint
00.842
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
77.00%
Qarabag
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.00%
AZAL
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.21 * Even: 0.21 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.15 * Moderate Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Strong Separation: 2.3 to 2.6 * Wide Separation: 2.6 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 73.5% * Slight Edge: 73.5% to 77.5% * Clear Edge: 77.5% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92% * Clear Edge: 92% to 97% * Strong Edge: 97% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59% * Some Drama: 59% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 67% * Very Frequent: 67% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14% * Occasional: 14% to 17.5% * Frequent: 17.5% to 21.5% * Very Frequent: 21.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Balanced
00.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 130.97
2.25
Moderate Separation
12.152.63.25
Interquartile Edge
65%
Even
50%73.5%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
92%
Clear Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
65%
Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
11%
Rare
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Slight Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.06
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Near-Lock
00.470.651
Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Chalky
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
As Expected
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.55
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.30
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.116
Well Within Noise
00.1630.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Qarabag67.00%30.00%3.00%—————
Gabala30.00%58.00%9.00%2.00%1.00%———
Inter Baku2.00%9.00%57.00%22.00%4.00%4.00%2.00%—
Zira—2.00%12.00%24.00%29.00%18.00%11.00%4.00%
Kapaz—1.00%10.00%31.00%19.00%22.00%10.00%7.00%
Sumgayit1.00%—6.00%12.00%22.00%27.00%16.00%16.00%
Neftchi Baku——3.00%9.00%21.00%19.00%29.00%19.00%
AZAL————4.00%10.00%32.00%54.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Gabala 100% —
Inter Baku 100% —
Qarabag 100% —
Zira 96.00% 4.00%
Kapaz 93.00% 7.00%
Sumgayit 84.00% 16.00%
Neftchi Baku 81.00% 19.00%
AZAL 46.00% 54.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2016-08-06 Neftchi Baku L 0-251.3 1490 1541 38.29% 29.29% 32.41%+0.10 -16.1 0
2016-08-06 @ AZAL W 2-051.3 1541 1490 32.41% 29.29% 38.29%-0.10 +16.1 3
2016-08-06 Sumgayit L 0-156.9 1536 1488 51.44% 27.31% 21.24%+0.59 -10.7 0
2016-08-06 @ Zira W 1-056.9 1488 1536 21.24% 27.31% 51.44%-0.59 +10.7 3
2016-08-07 Inter Baku L 1-273.3 1732 1579 63.33% 22.92% 13.74%+1.11 -11.9 0
2016-08-07 @ Qarabag W 2-173.3 1579 1732 13.74% 22.92% 63.33%-1.11 +11.9 3
2016-08-08 Kapaz W 2-048.3 1617 1535 55.58% 26.06% 18.36%+0.76 +8.9 3
2016-08-08 @ Gabala L 0-248.3 1535 1617 18.36% 26.06% 55.58%-0.76 -8.8 0
2016-08-11 Qarabag L 0-250.1 1499 1720 18.85% 26.31% 54.84%-0.73 -9.1 3
2016-08-11 @ Sumgayit W 2-050.1 1720 1499 54.84% 26.31% 18.85%+0.73 +9.1 3
2016-08-12 Inter Baku D 0-063.8 1626 1591 49.94% 27.69% 22.37%+0.53 -1.4 4
2016-08-12 @ Gabala D 0-063.8 1591 1626 22.37% 27.69% 49.94%-0.53 +1.4 4
2016-08-13 AZAL D 0-057.2 1526 1474 52.05% 27.15% 20.80%+0.62 -1.6 1
2016-08-13 @ Kapaz D 0-057.2 1474 1526 20.80% 27.15% 52.05%-0.62 +1.6 1
2016-08-14 Zira L 0-158.6 1558 1525 49.55% 27.78% 22.67%+0.52 -10.4 3
2016-08-14 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-058.6 1525 1558 22.67% 27.78% 49.55%-0.52 +10.4 3
2016-08-19 Kapaz D 2-273.7 1592 1525 53.85% 26.62% 19.53%+0.69 -1.2 5
2016-08-19 @ Inter Baku D 2-273.7 1525 1592 19.53% 26.62% 53.85%-0.69 +1.2 2
2016-08-19 AZAL W 3-150.8 1536 1475 52.98% 26.88% 20.13%+0.66 +8.4 6
2016-08-19 @ Zira L 1-350.8 1475 1536 20.13% 26.88% 52.98%-0.66 -8.4 1
2016-08-21 Neftchi Baku W 3-046.5 1729 1547 66.26% 21.50% 12.24%+1.26 +8.3 6
2016-08-21 @ Qarabag L 0-346.5 1547 1729 12.24% 21.50% 66.26%-1.26 -8.3 3
2016-09-09 AZAL W 6-043.5 1737 1467 74.40% 17.03% 8.57%+1.69 +10.3 9
2016-09-09 @ Qarabag L 0-643.5 1467 1737 8.57% 17.03% 74.40%-1.69 -10.3 1
2016-09-10 Gabala L 0-854.1 1539 1625 33.40% 29.33% 37.27%-0.07 -53.3 3
2016-09-10 @ Neftchi Baku W 8-054.1 1625 1539 37.27% 29.33% 33.40%+0.07 +53.3 7
2016-09-11 Inter Baku L 1-260.4 1490 1591 31.38% 29.23% 39.39%-0.14 -7.0 3
2016-09-11 @ Sumgayit W 2-160.4 1591 1490 39.39% 29.23% 31.38%+0.14 +7.0 8
2016-09-11 Zira W 2-049.5 1526 1544 42.94% 28.92% 28.14%+0.27 +12.8 5
2016-09-11 @ Kapaz L 0-249.5 1544 1526 28.14% 28.92% 42.94%-0.27 -12.8 6
2016-09-18 Kapaz D 1-163.2 1483 1539 37.71% 29.31% 32.98%+0.08 -0.2 4
2016-09-18 @ Sumgayit D 1-163.2 1539 1483 32.98% 29.31% 37.71%-0.08 +0.2 6
2016-09-18 Neftchi Baku W 2-154.6 1598 1485 59.01% 24.80% 16.20%+0.91 +3.9 11
2016-09-18 @ Inter Baku L 1-254.6 1485 1598 16.20% 24.80% 59.01%-0.91 -3.9 3
2016-09-19 AZAL W 3-042.2 1678 1457 70.07% 19.49% 10.44%+1.45 +6.9 10
2016-09-19 @ Gabala L 0-342.2 1457 1678 10.44% 19.49% 70.07%-1.45 -6.9 1
2016-09-19 Zira W 2-046.7 1747 1531 69.60% 19.75% 10.66%+1.43 +4.8 12
2016-09-19 @ Qarabag L 0-246.7 1531 1747 10.66% 19.75% 69.60%-1.43 -4.8 6
2016-09-22 Sumgayit W 2-044.9 1685 1483 68.25% 20.47% 11.28%+1.36 +5.2 13
2016-09-22 @ Gabala L 0-244.9 1483 1685 11.28% 20.47% 68.25%-1.36 -5.2 4
2016-09-24 Inter Baku L 1-354.3 1450 1602 25.24% 28.43% 46.33%-0.39 -10.2 1
2016-09-24 @ AZAL W 3-154.3 1602 1450 46.33% 28.43% 25.24%+0.39 +10.2 14
2016-09-25 Gabala L 0-252.2 1526 1690 23.99% 28.14% 47.87%-0.45 -11.3 6
2016-09-25 @ Zira W 2-052.2 1690 1526 47.87% 28.14% 23.99%+0.45 +11.3 16
2016-09-25 Qarabag D 1-171.1 1539 1752 19.43% 26.58% 53.98%-0.70 +1.6 7
2016-09-25 @ Kapaz D 1-171.1 1752 1539 53.98% 26.58% 19.43%+0.70 -1.6 13
2016-09-27 Sumgayit L 1-260.0 1482 1478 45.89% 28.50% 25.60%+0.38 -9.2 3
2016-09-27 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-160.0 1478 1482 25.60% 28.50% 45.89%-0.38 +9.2 7
2016-09-30 Zira D 1-167.9 1612 1515 57.28% 25.46% 17.26%+0.84 -1.9 15
2016-09-30 @ Inter Baku D 1-167.9 1515 1612 17.26% 25.46% 57.28%-0.84 +1.9 7
2016-10-01 Kapaz W 2-049.5 1472 1540 35.93% 29.35% 34.72%+0.02 +15.0 6
2016-10-01 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-249.5 1540 1472 34.72% 29.35% 35.93%-0.02 -15.0 7
2016-10-01 AZAL D 1-160.3 1487 1440 51.41% 27.32% 21.27%+0.59 -1.4 8
2016-10-01 @ Sumgayit D 1-160.3 1440 1487 21.27% 27.32% 51.41%-0.59 +1.4 2
2016-10-02 Qarabag W 2-057.6 1701 1751 38.62% 29.28% 32.10%+0.11 +14.2 19
2016-10-02 @ Gabala L 0-257.6 1751 1701 32.10% 29.28% 38.62%-0.11 -14.2 13
2016-10-15 Gabala D 1-170.8 1610 1716 30.79% 29.19% 40.02%-0.16 +0.4 16
2016-10-15 @ Inter Baku D 1-170.8 1716 1610 40.02% 29.19% 30.79%+0.16 -0.4 20
2016-10-15 Sumgayit W 3-043.6 1736 1485 72.75% 17.99% 9.27%+1.60 +5.9 16
2016-10-15 @ Qarabag L 0-343.6 1485 1736 9.27% 17.99% 72.75%-1.60 -5.9 8
2016-10-16 Kapaz L 0-150.0 1441 1525 33.61% 29.33% 37.06%-0.06 -7.8 2
2016-10-16 @ AZAL W 1-050.0 1525 1441 37.06% 29.33% 33.61%+0.06 +7.8 10
2016-10-16 Neftchi Baku W 2-045.2 1517 1487 49.19% 27.86% 22.95%+0.50 +10.9 10
2016-10-16 @ Zira L 0-245.2 1487 1517 22.95% 27.86% 49.19%-0.50 -10.9 6
2016-10-23 Inter Baku D 0-061.5 1533 1611 34.62% 29.35% 36.02%-0.02 +0.1 11
2016-10-23 @ Kapaz D 0-061.5 1611 1533 36.02% 29.35% 34.62%+0.02 -0.1 17
2016-10-24 Zira D 1-160.9 1433 1528 32.24% 29.28% 38.48%-0.11 +0.3 3
2016-10-24 @ AZAL D 1-160.9 1528 1433 38.48% 29.28% 32.24%+0.11 -0.3 11
2016-10-25 Gabala D 2-276.1 1480 1715 17.70% 25.71% 56.58%-0.81 +1.4 9
2016-10-25 @ Sumgayit D 2-276.1 1715 1480 56.58% 25.71% 17.70%+0.81 -1.4 21
2016-10-25 Qarabag L 0-248.6 1476 1742 15.63% 24.41% 59.96%-0.96 -7.5 6
2016-10-25 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-048.6 1742 1476 59.96% 24.41% 15.63%+0.96 +7.5 19
2016-10-29 Neftchi Baku W 4-147.8 1714 1469 72.21% 18.30% 9.50%+1.57 +5.2 24
2016-10-29 @ Gabala L 1-447.8 1469 1714 9.50% 18.30% 72.21%-1.57 -5.2 6
2016-10-29 Qarabag L 0-148.8 1433 1750 12.74% 22.00% 65.26%-1.21 -3.2 3
2016-10-29 @ AZAL W 1-048.8 1750 1433 65.26% 22.00% 12.74%+1.21 +3.2 22
2016-10-30 Kapaz W 2-048.7 1527 1533 44.59% 28.71% 26.71%+0.33 +12.3 14
2016-10-30 @ Zira L 0-248.7 1533 1527 26.71% 28.71% 44.59%-0.33 -12.3 11
2016-10-30 Sumgayit W 3-151.3 1610 1481 60.87% 24.03% 15.10%+1.00 +6.3 20
2016-10-30 @ Inter Baku L 1-351.3 1481 1610 15.10% 24.03% 60.87%-1.00 -6.3 9
2016-11-05 Inter Baku W 2-164.6 1464 1617 25.14% 28.41% 46.45%-0.40 +9.3 9
2016-11-05 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-264.6 1617 1464 46.45% 28.41% 25.14%+0.40 -9.3 20
2016-11-05 Sumgayit D 0-057.0 1521 1475 51.30% 27.35% 21.35%+0.59 -1.5 12
2016-11-05 @ Kapaz D 0-057.0 1475 1521 21.35% 27.35% 51.30%-0.59 +1.5 10
2016-11-06 Gabala D 0-063.4 1430 1719 14.25% 23.35% 62.40%-1.07 +2.6 4
2016-11-06 @ AZAL D 0-063.4 1719 1430 62.40% 23.35% 14.25%+1.07 -2.6 25
2016-11-06 Qarabag L 0-251.6 1540 1753 19.44% 26.58% 53.98%-0.70 -9.3 14
2016-11-06 @ Zira W 2-051.6 1753 1540 53.98% 26.58% 19.44%+0.70 +9.4 25
2016-11-19 Kapaz W 1-048.6 1762 1519 72.04% 18.39% 9.57%+1.56 +2.2 28
2016-11-19 @ Qarabag L 0-148.6 1519 1762 9.57% 18.39% 72.04%-1.56 -2.3 12
2016-11-19 Zira W 1-049.7 1716 1530 66.69% 21.28% 12.03%+1.28 +3.0 28
2016-11-19 @ Gabala L 0-149.7 1530 1716 12.03% 21.28% 66.69%-1.28 -3.0 14
2016-11-20 Neftchi Baku W 2-044.2 1476 1473 45.77% 28.52% 25.70%+0.37 +11.9 13
2016-11-20 @ Sumgayit L 0-244.2 1473 1476 25.70% 28.52% 45.77%-0.37 -12.0 9
2016-11-20 AZAL W 3-040.4 1607 1433 65.55% 21.86% 12.60%+1.22 +8.6 23
2016-11-20 @ Inter Baku L 0-340.4 1433 1607 12.60% 21.86% 65.55%-1.22 -8.6 4
2016-11-27 Neftchi Baku W 2-043.3 1517 1461 52.48% 27.03% 20.49%+0.63 +9.8 15
2016-11-27 @ Kapaz L 0-243.3 1461 1517 20.49% 27.03% 52.48%-0.63 -9.8 9
2016-11-27 Sumgayit D 1-159.2 1424 1488 36.55% 29.34% 34.11%+0.04 -0.1 5
2016-11-27 @ AZAL D 1-159.2 1488 1424 34.11% 29.34% 36.55%-0.04 +0.1 14
2016-11-28 Inter Baku D 1-167.3 1527 1616 33.05% 29.32% 37.63%-0.08 +0.2 15
2016-11-28 @ Zira D 1-167.3 1616 1527 37.63% 29.32% 33.05%+0.08 -0.2 24
2016-11-29 Gabala W 2-163.4 1765 1719 51.16% 27.38% 21.45%+0.58 +5.1 31
2016-11-29 @ Qarabag L 1-263.4 1719 1765 21.45% 27.38% 51.16%-0.58 -5.1 28
2016-12-17 Kapaz W 2-156.4 1714 1527 66.81% 21.22% 11.97%+1.28 +2.8 31
2016-12-17 @ Gabala L 1-256.4 1527 1714 11.97% 21.22% 66.81%-1.28 -2.8 15
2016-12-17 Inter Baku D 0-067.5 1770 1616 63.45% 22.87% 13.68%+1.12 -2.7 32
2016-12-17 @ Qarabag D 0-067.5 1616 1770 13.68% 22.87% 63.45%-1.12 +2.7 25
2016-12-17 AZAL L 0-151.1 1451 1424 48.90% 27.93% 23.17%+0.49 -10.3 9
2016-12-17 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-051.1 1424 1451 23.17% 27.93% 48.90%-0.49 +10.3 8
2016-12-17 Zira W 1-051.0 1488 1528 40.00% 29.19% 30.80%+0.16 +7.3 17
2016-12-17 @ Sumgayit L 0-151.0 1528 1488 30.80% 29.19% 40.00%-0.16 -7.3 15
2017-01-28 Kapaz W 4-151.3 1618 1524 56.96% 25.58% 17.46%+0.82 +10.3 28
2017-01-28 @ Inter Baku L 1-451.3 1524 1618 17.46% 25.58% 56.96%-0.82 -10.3 15
2017-01-28 Sumgayit D 1-171.9 1717 1496 70.09% 19.48% 10.43%+1.45 -2.9 32
2017-01-28 @ Gabala D 1-171.9 1496 1717 10.43% 19.48% 70.09%-1.45 +2.9 18
2017-01-29 Neftchi Baku D 1-173.4 1767 1441 78.89% 14.33% 6.78%+1.97 -3.4 33
2017-01-29 @ Qarabag D 1-173.4 1441 1767 6.78% 14.33% 78.89%-1.97 +3.4 10
2017-01-29 AZAL W 2-150.7 1520 1434 56.00% 25.92% 18.08%+0.78 +4.4 18
2017-01-29 @ Zira L 1-250.7 1434 1520 18.08% 25.92% 56.00%-0.78 -4.4 8
2017-02-03 Neftchi Baku W 1-045.4 1714 1444 74.37% 17.05% 8.58%+1.69 +2.0 35
2017-02-03 @ Gabala L 0-145.4 1444 1714 8.58% 17.05% 74.37%-1.69 -2.0 10
2017-02-03 Qarabag L 1-255.3 1430 1764 11.89% 21.14% 66.97%-1.29 -2.8 8
2017-02-03 @ AZAL W 2-155.3 1764 1430 66.97% 21.14% 11.89%+1.29 +2.8 36
2017-02-04 Inter Baku D 2-273.4 1498 1629 27.69% 28.86% 43.45%-0.29 +0.5 19
2017-02-04 @ Sumgayit D 2-273.4 1629 1498 43.45% 28.86% 27.69%+0.29 -0.5 29
2017-02-08 AZAL W 2-042.0 1716 1427 75.96% 16.11% 7.93%+1.79 +3.4 38
2017-02-08 @ Gabala L 0-242.0 1427 1716 7.93% 16.11% 75.96%-1.79 -3.4 8
2017-02-08 Zira W 2-046.2 1766 1525 71.93% 18.45% 9.62%+1.55 +4.3 39
2017-02-08 @ Qarabag L 0-246.2 1525 1766 9.62% 18.45% 71.93%-1.55 -4.3 18
2017-02-09 Kapaz W 3-153.7 1499 1514 43.36% 28.87% 27.77%+0.28 +11.0 22
2017-02-09 @ Sumgayit L 1-353.7 1514 1499 27.77% 28.87% 43.36%-0.28 -11.0 15
2017-02-09 Neftchi Baku L 1-365.2 1628 1442 66.66% 21.30% 12.04%+1.28 -21.5 29
2017-02-09 @ Inter Baku W 3-165.2 1442 1628 12.04% 21.30% 66.66%-1.28 +21.5 13
2017-02-12 Gabala D 2-276.6 1520 1720 20.64% 27.08% 52.28%-0.63 +1.1 19
2017-02-12 @ Zira D 2-276.6 1720 1520 52.28% 27.08% 20.64%+0.63 -1.1 39
2017-02-12 Qarabag L 0-152.1 1503 1771 15.50% 24.32% 60.17%-0.97 -4.0 15
2017-02-12 @ Kapaz W 1-052.1 1771 1503 60.17% 24.32% 15.50%+0.97 +4.0 42
2017-02-13 Inter Baku L 0-148.5 1424 1607 22.12% 27.61% 50.27%-0.55 -5.6 8
2017-02-13 @ AZAL W 1-048.5 1607 1424 50.27% 27.61% 22.12%+0.55 +5.6 32
2017-02-13 Sumgayit W 1-049.7 1464 1510 39.09% 29.25% 31.66%+0.13 +7.5 16
2017-02-13 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-149.7 1510 1464 31.66% 29.25% 39.09%-0.13 -7.5 22
2017-02-18 Kapaz D 0-055.5 1471 1499 41.64% 29.06% 29.30%+0.22 -0.6 17
2017-02-18 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-055.5 1499 1471 29.30% 29.06% 41.64%-0.22 +0.6 16
2017-02-18 Zira D 1-168.1 1612 1521 56.58% 25.71% 17.71%+0.81 -1.8 33
2017-02-18 @ Inter Baku D 1-168.1 1521 1612 17.71% 25.71% 56.58%-0.81 +1.8 20
2017-02-19 Qarabag W 2-058.1 1718 1775 37.63% 29.32% 33.06%+0.08 +14.5 42
2017-02-19 @ Gabala L 0-258.1 1775 1718 33.06% 29.32% 37.63%-0.08 -14.5 42
2017-02-19 AZAL W 1-042.8 1502 1418 55.80% 25.99% 18.22%+0.77 +4.7 25
2017-02-19 @ Sumgayit L 0-142.8 1418 1502 18.22% 25.99% 55.80%-0.77 -4.7 8
2017-02-27 Neftchi Baku L 0-148.4 1414 1471 37.52% 29.32% 33.16%+0.08 -8.4 8
2017-02-27 @ AZAL W 1-048.4 1471 1414 33.16% 29.32% 37.52%-0.08 +8.4 20
2017-02-27 Sumgayit W 1-049.3 1523 1507 47.49% 28.22% 24.29%+0.44 +6.0 23
2017-02-27 @ Zira L 0-149.3 1507 1523 24.29% 28.22% 47.49%-0.44 -6.0 25
2017-02-28 Gabala D 1-170.4 1500 1733 17.87% 25.81% 56.32%-0.80 +1.8 17
2017-02-28 @ Kapaz D 1-170.4 1733 1500 56.32% 25.81% 17.87%+0.80 -1.8 43
2017-02-28 Inter Baku L 0-167.1 1760 1611 63.00% 23.08% 13.92%+1.10 -12.6 42
2017-02-28 @ Qarabag W 1-067.1 1611 1760 13.92% 23.08% 63.00%-1.10 +12.6 36
2017-03-04 Gabala L 0-256.4 1623 1731 30.46% 29.17% 40.37%-0.18 -13.7 36
2017-03-04 @ Inter Baku W 2-056.4 1731 1623 40.37% 29.17% 30.46%+0.18 +13.6 46
2017-03-04 Qarabag L 0-448.5 1501 1748 16.92% 25.26% 57.82%-0.86 -15.5 25
2017-03-04 @ Sumgayit W 4-048.5 1748 1501 57.82% 25.26% 16.92%+0.86 +15.5 45
2017-03-05 AZAL D 1-160.1 1501 1405 57.17% 25.50% 17.33%+0.83 -1.9 18
2017-03-05 @ Kapaz D 1-160.1 1405 1501 17.33% 25.50% 57.17%-0.83 +1.9 9
2017-03-05 Zira L 1-259.9 1479 1529 38.49% 29.28% 32.23%+0.11 -8.1 20
2017-03-05 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-159.9 1529 1479 32.23% 29.28% 38.49%-0.11 +8.1 26
2017-03-13 Kapaz W 1-052.2 1537 1500 50.25% 27.61% 22.13%+0.55 +5.6 29
2017-03-13 @ Zira L 0-152.2 1500 1537 22.13% 27.61% 50.25%-0.55 -5.6 18
2017-03-13 Sumgayit W 1-047.8 1610 1486 60.26% 24.28% 15.45%+0.97 +3.9 39
2017-03-13 @ Inter Baku L 0-147.8 1486 1610 15.45% 24.28% 60.26%-0.97 -3.9 25
2017-03-13 Zira W 1-052.2 1494 1543 38.64% 29.28% 32.09%+0.11 +7.5 21
2017-03-13 @ Kapaz L 0-152.2 1543 1494 32.09% 29.28% 38.64%-0.11 -7.5 29
2017-03-14 Gabala W 1-064.6 1471 1745 15.14% 24.06% 60.80%-1.00 +12.3 23
2017-03-14 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-164.6 1745 1471 60.80% 24.06% 15.14%+1.00 -12.3 46
2017-03-14 AZAL W 1-043.7 1763 1407 81.05% 12.99% 5.96%+2.12 +1.3 48
2017-03-14 @ Qarabag L 0-143.7 1407 1763 5.96% 12.99% 81.05%-2.12 -1.3 9
2017-03-18 Inter Baku W 2-164.4 1483 1613 27.73% 28.87% 43.40%-0.29 +8.8 26
2017-03-18 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-264.4 1613 1483 43.40% 28.87% 27.73%+0.29 -8.9 39
2017-03-18 Sumgayit W 1-047.4 1501 1482 47.95% 28.12% 23.92%+0.46 +6.0 24
2017-03-18 @ Kapaz L 0-147.4 1482 1501 23.92% 28.12% 47.95%-0.46 -6.0 25
2017-03-19 Gabala D 1-169.5 1406 1733 12.23% 21.49% 66.27%-1.26 +2.6 10
2017-03-19 @ AZAL D 1-169.5 1733 1406 66.27% 21.49% 12.23%+1.26 -2.6 47
2017-03-19 Qarabag D 0-065.7 1536 1764 18.21% 25.99% 55.80%-0.77 +2.0 30
2017-03-19 @ Zira D 0-065.7 1764 1536 55.80% 25.99% 18.21%+0.77 -2.0 49
2017-04-02 Kapaz W 2-155.0 1762 1507 73.10% 17.78% 9.11%+1.62 +2.0 52
2017-04-02 @ Qarabag L 1-255.0 1507 1762 9.11% 17.78% 73.10%-1.62 -2.0 24
2017-04-02 Neftchi Baku W 2-045.7 1476 1492 43.15% 28.90% 27.95%+0.28 +12.8 28
2017-04-02 @ Sumgayit L 0-245.7 1492 1476 27.95% 28.90% 43.15%-0.28 -12.8 26
2017-04-02 AZAL W 2-149.4 1605 1409 67.67% 20.78% 11.56%+1.33 +2.7 42
2017-04-02 @ Inter Baku L 1-249.4 1409 1605 11.56% 20.78% 67.67%-1.33 -2.7 10
2017-04-02 Zira D 1-172.5 1730 1537 67.32% 20.96% 11.73%+1.31 -2.7 48
2017-04-02 @ Gabala D 1-172.5 1537 1730 11.73% 20.96% 67.32%-1.31 +2.7 31
2017-04-09 Gabala D 0-066.6 1764 1727 50.16% 27.64% 22.21%+0.54 -1.4 53
2017-04-09 @ Qarabag D 0-066.6 1727 1764 22.21% 27.64% 50.16%-0.54 +1.4 49
2017-04-09 Neftchi Baku W 2-044.6 1505 1479 48.74% 27.96% 23.30%+0.49 +11.0 27
2017-04-09 @ Kapaz L 0-244.6 1479 1505 23.30% 27.96% 48.74%-0.49 -11.0 26
2017-04-10 Inter Baku D 1-167.4 1540 1607 36.08% 29.35% 34.57%+0.03 -0.1 32
2017-04-10 @ Zira D 1-167.4 1607 1540 34.57% 29.35% 36.08%-0.03 +0.1 43
2017-04-10 Sumgayit L 1-254.4 1406 1488 33.87% 29.34% 36.79%-0.05 -7.4 10
2017-04-10 @ AZAL W 2-154.4 1488 1406 36.79% 29.34% 33.87%+0.05 +7.4 31
2017-04-15 AZAL W 4-037.7 1468 1398 54.15% 26.53% 19.32%+0.70 +17.6 29
2017-04-15 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-437.7 1398 1468 19.32% 26.53% 54.15%-0.70 -17.6 10
2017-04-15 Zira D 1-163.7 1496 1540 39.32% 29.24% 31.44%+0.14 -0.3 32
2017-04-15 @ Sumgayit D 1-163.7 1540 1496 31.44% 29.24% 39.32%-0.14 +0.3 33
2017-04-16 Gabala W 2-061.2 1516 1729 19.52% 26.62% 53.86%-0.69 +21.0 30
2017-04-16 @ Kapaz L 0-261.2 1729 1516 53.86% 26.62% 19.52%+0.69 -21.0 49
2017-04-16 Qarabag L 0-353.4 1607 1763 24.85% 28.35% 46.80%-0.41 -16.9 43
2017-04-16 @ Inter Baku W 3-053.4 1763 1607 46.80% 28.35% 24.85%+0.41 +16.9 56
2017-04-23 Kapaz L 1-252.2 1381 1537 24.75% 28.32% 46.92%-0.42 -5.8 10
2017-04-23 @ AZAL W 2-152.2 1537 1381 46.92% 28.32% 24.75%+0.42 +5.8 33
2017-04-23 Neftchi Baku D 2-270.4 1540 1486 52.27% 27.09% 20.64%+0.63 -1.1 34
2017-04-23 @ Zira D 2-270.4 1486 1540 20.64% 27.09% 52.27%-0.63 +1.1 30
2017-04-23 Sumgayit W 2-154.3 1780 1495 75.60% 16.32% 8.08%+1.76 +1.7 59
2017-04-23 @ Qarabag L 1-254.3 1495 1780 8.08% 16.32% 75.60%-1.76 -1.7 32
2017-04-24 Inter Baku W 4-366.2 1708 1590 59.53% 24.59% 15.88%+0.94 +3.5 52
2017-04-24 @ Gabala L 3-466.2 1590 1708 15.88% 24.59% 59.53%-0.94 -3.5 43
2017-04-29 Gabala W 2-170.0 1494 1711 19.10% 26.43% 54.47%-0.72 +10.6 35
2017-04-29 @ Sumgayit L 1-270.0 1711 1494 54.47% 26.43% 19.10%+0.72 -10.6 52
2017-04-29 Qarabag L 1-258.0 1487 1782 13.92% 23.08% 63.00%-1.10 -3.3 30
2017-04-29 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-158.0 1782 1487 63.00% 23.08% 13.92%+1.10 +3.3 62
2017-04-29 Inter Baku W 1-055.1 1543 1587 39.40% 29.23% 31.37%+0.14 +7.4 36
2017-04-29 @ Kapaz L 0-155.1 1587 1543 31.37% 29.23% 39.40%-0.14 -7.4 43
2017-04-29 Zira L 0-341.1 1375 1539 23.95% 28.13% 47.92%-0.45 -16.4 10
2017-04-29 @ AZAL W 3-041.1 1539 1375 47.92% 28.13% 23.95%+0.45 +16.4 37

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2017-02-09 12.04% Neftchi Baku 1442 3 @ Inter Baku 1628 1
2 2016-08-07 13.74% Inter Baku 1579 2 @ Qarabag 1732 1
3 2017-02-28 13.92% Inter Baku 1611 1 @ Qarabag 1760 0
4 2017-03-14 15.14% @ Neftchi Baku 1471 1 Gabala 1745 0
5 2017-04-29 19.10% @ Sumgayit 1494 2 Gabala 1711 1
6 2017-04-16 19.52% @ Kapaz 1516 2 Gabala 1729 0
7 2016-08-06 21.24% Sumgayit 1488 1 @ Zira 1536 0
8 2016-08-14 22.67% Zira 1525 1 @ Neftchi Baku 1558 0
9 2016-12-17 23.17% AZAL 1424 1 @ Neftchi Baku 1451 0
10 2016-11-05 25.14% @ Neftchi Baku 1464 2 Inter Baku 1617 1
11 2016-09-27 25.60% Sumgayit 1478 2 @ Neftchi Baku 1482 1
12 2017-03-18 27.73% @ Neftchi Baku 1483 2 Inter Baku 1613 1
13 2017-03-05 32.23% Zira 1529 2 @ Neftchi Baku 1479 1
14 2016-08-06 32.41% Neftchi Baku 1541 2 @ AZAL 1490 0
15 2017-02-27 33.16% Neftchi Baku 1471 1 @ AZAL 1414 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-09-10 53.32 Gabala 8 1625 37.27% @ Neftchi Baku 0 1539 33.40% 29.33%
2 2017-02-09 21.47 Neftchi Baku 3 1442 12.04% @ Inter Baku 1 1628 66.66% 21.30%
3 2017-04-16 21.01 @ Kapaz 2 1516 19.52% Gabala 0 1729 53.86% 26.62%
4 2017-04-15 17.64 @ Neftchi Baku 4 1468 54.15% AZAL 0 1398 19.32% 26.53%
5 2017-04-16 16.88 Qarabag 3 1763 46.80% @ Inter Baku 0 1607 24.85% 28.35%
6 2017-04-29 16.36 Zira 3 1539 47.92% @ AZAL 0 1375 23.95% 28.13%
7 2016-08-06 16.10 Neftchi Baku 2 1541 32.41% @ AZAL 0 1490 38.29% 29.29%
8 2017-03-04 15.48 Qarabag 4 1748 57.82% @ Sumgayit 0 1501 16.92% 25.26%
9 2016-10-01 15.02 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1472 35.93% Kapaz 0 1540 34.72% 29.35%
10 2017-02-19 14.49 @ Gabala 2 1718 37.63% Qarabag 0 1775 33.06% 29.32%
11 2016-10-02 14.19 @ Gabala 2 1701 38.62% Qarabag 0 1751 32.10% 29.28%
12 2017-03-04 13.65 Gabala 2 1731 40.37% @ Inter Baku 0 1623 30.46% 29.17%
13 2016-09-11 12.84 @ Kapaz 2 1526 42.94% Zira 0 1544 28.14% 28.92%
14 2017-04-02 12.78 @ Sumgayit 2 1476 43.15% Neftchi Baku 0 1492 27.95% 28.90%
15 2017-02-28 12.61 Inter Baku 1 1611 13.92% @ Qarabag 0 1760 63.00% 23.08%
16 2016-10-30 12.32 @ Zira 2 1527 44.59% Kapaz 0 1533 26.71% 28.71%
17 2017-03-14 12.27 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1471 15.14% Gabala 0 1745 60.80% 24.06%
18 2016-11-20 11.95 @ Sumgayit 2 1476 45.77% Neftchi Baku 0 1473 25.70% 28.52%
19 2016-08-07 11.93 Inter Baku 2 1579 13.74% @ Qarabag 1 1732 63.33% 22.92%
20 2016-09-25 11.29 Gabala 2 1690 47.87% @ Zira 0 1526 23.99% 28.14%
21 2017-02-09 11.01 @ Sumgayit 3 1499 43.36% Kapaz 1 1514 27.77% 28.87%
22 2017-04-09 11.01 @ Kapaz 2 1505 48.74% Neftchi Baku 0 1479 23.30% 27.96%
23 2016-10-16 10.87 @ Zira 2 1517 49.19% Neftchi Baku 0 1487 22.95% 27.86%
24 2016-08-06 10.73 Sumgayit 1 1488 21.24% @ Zira 0 1536 51.44% 27.31%
25 2017-04-29 10.60 @ Sumgayit 2 1494 19.10% Gabala 1 1711 54.47% 26.43%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-02-12 76.6 @ Zira 2 1520 20.64% Gabala 2 1720 52.28% 27.08%
2 2016-10-25 76.1 @ Sumgayit 2 1480 17.70% Gabala 2 1715 56.58% 25.71%
3 2016-08-19 73.7 @ Inter Baku 2 1592 53.85% Kapaz 2 1525 19.53% 26.62%
4 2017-01-29 73.4 @ Qarabag 1 1767 78.89% Neftchi Baku 1 1441 6.78% 14.33%
5 2017-02-04 73.4 @ Sumgayit 2 1498 27.69% Inter Baku 2 1629 43.45% 28.86%
6 2016-08-07 73.3 Inter Baku 2 1579 13.74% @ Qarabag 1 1732 63.33% 22.92%
7 2017-04-02 72.5 @ Gabala 1 1730 67.32% Zira 1 1537 11.73% 20.96%
8 2017-01-28 71.9 @ Gabala 1 1717 70.09% Sumgayit 1 1496 10.43% 19.48%
9 2016-09-25 71.1 @ Kapaz 1 1539 19.43% Qarabag 1 1752 53.98% 26.58%
10 2016-10-15 70.8 @ Inter Baku 1 1610 30.79% Gabala 1 1716 40.02% 29.19%
11 2017-02-28 70.4 @ Kapaz 1 1500 17.87% Gabala 1 1733 56.32% 25.81%
12 2017-04-23 70.4 @ Zira 2 1540 52.27% Neftchi Baku 2 1486 20.64% 27.09%
13 2017-04-29 70.0 @ Sumgayit 2 1494 19.10% Gabala 1 1711 54.47% 26.43%
14 2017-03-19 69.5 @ AZAL 1 1406 12.23% Gabala 1 1733 66.27% 21.49%
15 2017-02-18 68.1 @ Inter Baku 1 1612 56.58% Zira 1 1521 17.71% 25.71%
16 2016-09-30 67.9 @ Inter Baku 1 1612 57.28% Zira 1 1515 17.26% 25.46%
17 2016-12-17 67.5 @ Qarabag 0 1770 63.45% Inter Baku 0 1616 13.68% 22.87%
18 2017-04-10 67.4 @ Zira 1 1540 36.08% Inter Baku 1 1607 34.57% 29.35%
19 2016-11-28 67.3 @ Zira 1 1527 33.05% Inter Baku 1 1616 37.63% 29.32%
20 2017-02-28 67.1 Inter Baku 1 1611 13.92% @ Qarabag 0 1760 63.00% 23.08%
21 2017-04-09 66.6 @ Qarabag 0 1764 50.16% Gabala 0 1727 22.21% 27.64%
22 2017-04-24 66.2 @ Gabala 4 1708 59.53% Inter Baku 3 1590 15.88% 24.59%
23 2017-03-19 65.7 @ Zira 0 1536 18.21% Qarabag 0 1764 55.80% 25.99%
24 2017-02-09 65.2 Neftchi Baku 3 1442 12.04% @ Inter Baku 1 1628 66.66% 21.30%
25 2016-11-05 64.6 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1464 25.14% Inter Baku 1 1617 46.45% 28.41%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-04-15 37.7 @ Neftchi Baku 4 1468 54.15% AZAL 0 1398 19.32% 26.53%
2 2016-11-20 40.4 @ Inter Baku 3 1607 65.55% AZAL 0 1433 12.60% 21.86%
3 2017-04-29 41.1 Zira 3 1539 47.92% @ AZAL 0 1375 23.95% 28.13%
4 2017-02-08 42.0 @ Gabala 2 1716 75.96% AZAL 0 1427 7.93% 16.11%
5 2016-09-19 42.2 @ Gabala 3 1678 70.07% AZAL 0 1457 10.44% 19.49%
6 2017-02-19 42.8 @ Sumgayit 1 1502 55.80% AZAL 0 1418 18.22% 25.99%
7 2016-11-27 43.3 @ Kapaz 2 1517 52.48% Neftchi Baku 0 1461 20.49% 27.03%
8 2016-09-09 43.5 @ Qarabag 6 1737 74.40% AZAL 0 1467 8.57% 17.03%
9 2016-10-15 43.6 @ Qarabag 3 1736 72.75% Sumgayit 0 1485 9.27% 17.99%
10 2017-03-14 43.7 @ Qarabag 1 1763 81.05% AZAL 0 1407 5.96% 12.99%
11 2016-11-20 44.2 @ Sumgayit 2 1476 45.77% Neftchi Baku 0 1473 25.70% 28.52%
12 2017-04-09 44.6 @ Kapaz 2 1505 48.74% Neftchi Baku 0 1479 23.30% 27.96%
13 2016-09-22 44.9 @ Gabala 2 1685 68.25% Sumgayit 0 1483 11.28% 20.47%
14 2016-10-16 45.2 @ Zira 2 1517 49.19% Neftchi Baku 0 1487 22.95% 27.86%
15 2017-02-03 45.4 @ Gabala 1 1714 74.37% Neftchi Baku 0 1444 8.58% 17.05%
16 2017-04-02 45.7 @ Sumgayit 2 1476 43.15% Neftchi Baku 0 1492 27.95% 28.90%
17 2017-02-08 46.2 @ Qarabag 2 1766 71.93% Zira 0 1525 9.62% 18.45%
18 2016-08-21 46.5 @ Qarabag 3 1729 66.26% Neftchi Baku 0 1547 12.24% 21.50%
19 2016-09-19 46.7 @ Qarabag 2 1747 69.60% Zira 0 1531 10.66% 19.75%
20 2017-03-18 47.4 @ Kapaz 1 1501 47.95% Sumgayit 0 1482 23.92% 28.12%
21 2016-10-29 47.8 @ Gabala 4 1714 72.21% Neftchi Baku 1 1469 9.50% 18.30%
22 2017-03-13 47.8 @ Inter Baku 1 1610 60.26% Sumgayit 0 1486 15.45% 24.28%
23 2016-08-08 48.3 @ Gabala 2 1617 55.58% Kapaz 0 1535 18.36% 26.06%
24 2017-02-27 48.4 Neftchi Baku 1 1471 33.16% @ AZAL 0 1414 37.52% 29.32%
25 2017-02-13 48.5 Inter Baku 1 1607 50.27% @ AZAL 0 1424 22.12% 27.61%