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2015-16 Azerbaijan Premier League Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Qarabag

84 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 2014-15

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Zira

11.62 points above expected

62 points · 50.38 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Khazar Lankaran

19.14 points below expected

15 points · 34.14 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Qarabag Champion 36 26 6 4 84 66 21 +45 74.88 +9.12
2 Zira 36 17 11 8 62 42 31 +11 50.38 +11.62
3 Gabala 36 16 11 9 59 44 28 +16 63.18 -4.18
4 Inter Baku 36 16 11 9 59 39 28 +11 63.71 -4.71
5 Kapaz 36 15 11 10 56 48 40 +8 45.95 +10.05
6 Neftchi Baku 36 13 10 13 49 41 41 0 49.74 -0.74
7 AZAL 36 13 7 16 46 26 38 -12 44.29 +1.71
8 Sumgayit 36 9 12 15 39 41 49 -8 41.50 -2.50
9 Ravan Baku* 36 5 9 22 18 27 63 -36 25.66 -7.66
10 Khazar Lankaran 36 3 6 27 15 16 51 -35 34.14 -19.14

* Point deductions: Ravan Baku (-6 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Zira 62 50.38 +11.62
2 Kapaz 56 45.95 +10.05
3 Qarabag 84 74.88 +9.12
4 AZAL 46 44.29 +1.71
5 Neftchi Baku 49 49.74 -0.74

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Khazar Lankaran 15 34.14 -19.14
2 Ravan Baku 18 25.66 -7.66
3 Inter Baku 59 63.71 -4.71
4 Gabala 59 63.18 -4.18
5 Sumgayit 39 41.50 -2.50

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AZAL 4 Dec 13 – Jan 31 1 in 179
2 Qarabag 11 Mar 5 – May 11 1 in 124
3 Ravan Baku 2 Nov 8 – Nov 22 1 in 66
4 Zira 5 Jan 31 – Feb 27 1 in 39
5 Neftchi Baku 3 May 7 – May 15 1 in 36

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Khazar Lankaran 12 Mar 5 – May 15 1 in 229
2 Ravan Baku 8 Sep 13 – Nov 2 1 in 112
3 AZAL 5 Aug 9 – Sep 19 1 in 80
4 Gabala 3 Mar 13 – Mar 30 1 in 23
5 Neftchi Baku 3 Oct 3 – Oct 23 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ravan Baku 5 Nov 8 – Dec 11 1 in 122
2 Zira 7 Aug 9 – Oct 3 1 in 43
3 AZAL 6 Nov 28 – Jan 31 1 in 22
4 Neftchi Baku 5 Apr 23 – May 15 1 in 22
5 Kapaz 7 Nov 27 – Feb 7 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gabala 6 Oct 25 – Nov 30 1 in 492
2 Khazar Lankaran 25 Nov 8 – May 20 1 in 96
3 Sumgayit 8 Aug 10 – Oct 18 1 in 38
4 Qarabag 4 Dec 13 – Jan 31 1 in 37
5 Zira 6 Apr 23 – May 20 1 in 19

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Qarabag 1855 84 +13 12 11.6 +0.4
Zira 1561 62 -101 2 6.6 -4.6
Inter Baku 1624 59 +10 10 9.9 +0.1
Gabala 1678 59 +84 10 6.9 +3.1
Kapaz 1560 56 -14 7 8.6 -1.6
Neftchi Baku 1570 49 +61 10 6.1 +3.9
AZAL 1493 46 -50 4 6.1 -2.1
Sumgayit 1484 39 +47 10 5.9 +4.1
Ravan Baku 1305 24 -14 4 3.8 +0.2
Khazar Lankaran 1249 15 -36 1 3.2 -2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AZA GAB IB KAP KL NB QAR RB SUM ZIR
AZAL —
1-1-2
3.50
0-1-3
3.72
1-1-2
4.93
3-0-1
6.88
2-1-1
4.75
1-0-3
2.56
2-1-1
7.65
2-1-1
5.82
1-1-2
4.94
Gabala
2-1-1
7.46
 —
1-2-1
5.50
2-0-2
7.70
3-1-0
8.62
2-1-1
7.13
0-2-2
3.77
3-1-0
8.91
2-2-0
7.72
1-1-2
6.35
Inter Baku
3-1-0
7.22
1-2-1
5.41
 —
2-2-0
7.09
3-0-1
8.71
1-1-2
6.94
0-1-3
3.91
4-0-0
8.92
1-2-1
7.80
1-2-1
7.00
Kapaz
2-1-1
5.97
2-0-2
3.28
0-2-2
3.86
 —
4-0-0
7.40
1-2-1
5.19
0-0-4
2.79
3-1-0
7.81
2-2-0
6.08
1-3-0
4.72
Khazar Lankaran
1-0-3
4.07
0-1-3
2.40
1-0-3
2.35
0-0-4
3.57
 —
0-1-3
3.76
0-0-4
2.09
1-3-0
6.39
0-1-3
4.36
0-0-4
3.68
Neftchi Baku
1-1-2
6.16
1-1-2
3.80
2-1-1
3.98
1-2-1
5.74
3-1-0
7.19
 —
1-1-2
2.81
1-1-2
8.16
3-0-1
6.45
0-2-2
5.12
Qarabag
3-0-1
8.47
2-2-0
7.18
3-1-0
7.03
4-0-0
8.21
4-0-0
9.01
2-1-1
8.17
 —
3-0-1
9.83
2-1-1
9.14
3-1-0
7.84
Ravan Baku
1-1-2
3.30
0-1-3
2.15
0-0-4
2.15
0-1-3
3.17
0-3-1
4.54
2-1-1
2.83
1-0-3
1.41
 —
0-2-2
3.59
1-0-3
2.70
Sumgayit
1-1-2
5.09
0-2-2
3.24
1-2-1
3.16
0-2-2
4.83
3-1-0
6.56
1-0-3
4.47
1-1-2
1.96
2-2-0
7.35
 —
0-1-3
4.51
Zira
2-1-1
5.97
2-1-1
4.58
1-2-1
3.92
0-3-1
6.18
4-0-0
7.33
2-2-0
5.79
0-1-3
3.12
3-0-1
8.30
3-1-0
6.41
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +13.4
Allowed 0.86 -15.1
Differential 0.97 +8.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.44%14.17%7.50%2.50%0.83%0.28%34.72%
114.17%11.11%6.67%1.94%0.28%0.28%34.44%
27.50%6.67%5.00%1.94%0.56%—21.67%
32.50%1.94%1.94%0.56%——6.94%
40.83%0.28%0.56%———1.67%
5+0.28%0.28%————0.56%
Total34.72%34.44%21.67%6.94%1.67%0.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.08 +0.00
SD 1.05 1.05 1.52
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%13.89%19.44%2.78%——44.44%
125.00%11.11%—5.56%——41.67%
22.78%5.56%——2.78%—11.11%
32.78%—————2.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%30.56%19.44%8.33%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.06 -0.33
SD 0.78 1.09 1.45
CV 1.08 1.04 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%——22.22%
125.00%11.11%13.89%———50.00%
28.33%2.78%8.33%———19.44%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total52.78%19.44%25.00%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 0.78 +0.44
SD 1.15 0.93 1.59
CV 0.94 1.19 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%8.33%8.33%———30.56%
122.22%13.89%2.78%———38.89%
211.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%—25.00%
3—2.78%————2.78%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total50.00%30.56%13.89%2.78%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 0.78 +0.31
SD 0.97 0.99 1.35
CV 0.89 1.27 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%—5.56%2.78%—30.56%
18.33%11.11%5.56%———25.00%
211.11%2.78%8.33%2.78%——25.00%
35.56%5.56%8.33%———19.44%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.11%30.56%22.22%8.33%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.11 +0.22
SD 1.12 1.09 1.59
CV 0.84 0.98 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%41.67%11.11%5.56%—2.78%66.67%
12.78%8.33%13.89%———25.00%
22.78%—2.78%———5.56%
3—2.78%————2.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%52.78%27.78%5.56%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.44 1.42 -0.97
SD 0.73 1.08 1.36
CV 1.65 0.76 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%2.78%——25.00%
116.67%19.44%11.11%———47.22%
22.78%8.33%2.78%5.56%——19.44%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total25.00%44.44%22.22%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.14 +0.00
SD 0.96 0.90 1.22
CV 0.84 0.79 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%8.33%————11.11%
113.89%8.33%2.78%———25.00%
225.00%13.89%5.56%———44.44%
38.33%—2.78%———11.11%
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total52.78%36.11%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 0.58 +1.25
SD 1.13 0.69 1.34
CV 0.62 1.19 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%13.89%11.11%2.78%5.56%—44.44%
18.33%8.33%11.11%11.11%—2.78%41.67%
2—2.78%2.78%2.78%——8.33%
3——2.78%2.78%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.44%25.00%27.78%19.44%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 1.75 -1.00
SD 0.84 1.30 1.39
CV 1.12 0.74 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%19.44%8.33%———36.11%
12.78%11.11%5.56%2.78%——22.22%
22.78%13.89%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
3—2.78%2.78%2.78%——8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.89%47.22%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.36 -0.22
SD 1.02 0.87 1.07
CV 0.89 0.64 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%8.33%8.33%2.78%——36.11%
116.67%8.33%——2.78%—27.78%
28.33%11.11%5.56%———25.00%
32.78%—2.78%———5.56%
42.78%—2.78%———5.56%
5+———————
Total47.22%27.78%19.44%2.78%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.86 +0.31
SD 1.16 1.02 1.53
CV 0.99 1.18 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Qarabag 1855 84 74.88 +9.12 91.0% 59 62 69 74 80 87 90
Gabala 1678 59 63.18 -4.18 35.0% 46 50 58 63 68 76 84
Inter Baku 1624 59 63.71 -4.71 26.0% 44 51 59 64 68 76 80
Neftchi Baku 1570 49 49.74 -0.74 47.0% 30 37 44 50 56 60 70
Zira 1561 62 50.38 +11.62 91.0% 32 37 44 51 55 64 66
Kapaz 1560 56 45.95 +10.05 93.0% 30 34 41 45 50 58 66
AZAL 1493 46 44.29 +1.71 65.0% 29 34 40 44 48 54 58
Sumgayit 1484 39 41.50 -2.50 42.0% 25 30 35 40 47 55 61
Ravan Baku 1305 18 25.66 -7.66 46.0% 13 15 22 26 30 36 39
Khazar Lankaran 1249 15 34.14 -19.14 0.0% 19 24 29 34 38 45 56

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7.5% * Slight Edge: 7.5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.00%
Slight Edge
44.44%26.11%29.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 52.51 Elo pts.
257 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.29 goals
Neutral
-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.34 * Runaway: 0.34 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.7
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
76%
Qarabag, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.61/gm
Runaway
00.250.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.78 * Some Luck: 5.78 to 8.67 * Lucky: 8.67 to 11.56 * Wild Swing: 11.56 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.79 * Close: 0.79 to 1.18 * Off: 1.18 to 1.58 * Way Off: 1.58 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.59 points
Some Luck
07.2318
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Close
00.992
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.00%
Kapaz
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Khazar Lankaran
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.21 * Even: 0.21 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.15 * Moderate Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Strong Separation: 2.3 to 2.6 * Wide Separation: 2.6 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 73.5% * Slight Edge: 73.5% to 77.5% * Clear Edge: 77.5% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92% * Clear Edge: 92% to 97% * Strong Edge: 97% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59% * Some Drama: 59% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 67% * Very Frequent: 67% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14% * Occasional: 14% to 17.5% * Frequent: 17.5% to 21.5% * Very Frequent: 21.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Even
00.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 173.87
2.64
Wide Separation
12.152.63.25
Interquartile Edge
67%
Even
50%73.5%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
97%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
72%
Very Frequent
0%67%100%
Blowouts
Expected 10%
8%
Rare
0%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Slight Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.50
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.46
Weak Carryover
00.470.651
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Very Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Shaky Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.07
Borderline
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.91
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.070
Well Within Noise
00.1230.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Qarabag76.00%19.00%5.00%———————
Zira—6.00%13.00%18.00%30.00%9.00%12.00%9.00%3.00%—
Gabala11.00%36.00%32.00%11.00%4.00%5.00%1.00%———
Inter Baku12.00%35.00%34.00%11.00%6.00%2.00%————
Kapaz—2.00%5.00%11.00%20.00%21.00%23.00%13.00%5.00%—
Neftchi Baku1.00%2.00%7.00%30.00%17.00%20.00%13.00%6.00%4.00%—
AZAL——1.00%10.00%10.00%26.00%27.00%19.00%6.00%1.00%
Sumgayit——3.00%8.00%10.00%14.00%15.00%30.00%18.00%2.00%
Ravan Baku———————5.00%16.00%79.00%
Khazar Lankaran———1.00%3.00%3.00%9.00%18.00%48.00%18.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Gabala 100% —
Inter Baku 100% —
Kapaz 100% —
Neftchi Baku 100% —
Qarabag 100% —
Zira 100% —
AZAL 99.00% 1.00%
Sumgayit 98.00% 2.00%
Khazar Lankaran 82.00% 18.00%
Ravan Baku 21.00% 79.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2015-08-09 Kapaz D 0-057.5 1570 1393 62.47% 24.91% 12.61%+0.89 -6.1 1
2015-08-09 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-057.5 1393 1570 12.61% 24.91% 62.47%-0.89 +6.1 1
2015-08-09 Inter Baku W 2-057.9 1505 1679 21.49% 26.93% 51.58%-0.47 +45.5 3
2015-08-09 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-257.9 1679 1505 51.58% 26.93% 21.49%+0.47 -45.5 0
2015-08-09 AZAL W 1-052.8 1451 1545 30.74% 27.62% 41.64%-0.16 +20.2 3
2015-08-09 @ Zira L 0-152.8 1545 1451 41.64% 27.62% 30.74%+0.16 -20.2 0
2015-08-10 Qarabag D 2-278.2 1635 1665 39.67% 27.67% 32.66%+0.09 -0.5 1
2015-08-10 @ Gabala D 2-278.2 1665 1635 32.66% 27.67% 39.67%-0.09 +0.5 1
2015-08-10 Sumgayit D 0-055.8 1414 1521 29.04% 27.55% 43.41%-0.21 +1.6 1
2015-08-10 @ Ravan Baku D 0-055.8 1521 1414 43.41% 27.55% 29.04%+0.21 -1.6 1
2015-08-15 Gabala L 0-250.6 1524 1635 28.65% 27.53% 43.82%-0.23 -28.8 0
2015-08-15 @ AZAL W 2-050.6 1635 1524 43.82% 27.53% 28.65%+0.23 +28.8 4
2015-08-15 Ravan Baku W 2-151.5 1666 1416 67.95% 23.12% 8.94%+1.18 +5.0 4
2015-08-15 @ Qarabag L 1-251.5 1416 1666 8.94% 23.12% 67.95%-1.18 -5.0 1
2015-08-16 Khazar Lankaran D 1-166.5 1520 1551 39.52% 27.67% 32.80%+0.08 -0.7 2
2015-08-16 @ Sumgayit D 1-166.5 1551 1520 32.80% 27.67% 39.52%-0.08 +0.6 4
2015-08-16 Zira D 1-159.3 1399 1471 33.71% 27.69% 38.60%-0.08 +0.5 2
2015-08-16 @ Kapaz D 1-159.3 1471 1399 38.60% 27.69% 33.71%+0.08 -0.5 4
2015-08-17 Neftchi Baku W 1-052.9 1634 1564 52.22% 26.85% 20.92%+0.48 +11.9 3
2015-08-17 @ Inter Baku L 0-152.9 1564 1634 20.92% 26.85% 52.22%-0.48 -11.9 1
2015-08-22 Ravan Baku D 1-163.1 1552 1411 59.32% 25.68% 15.00%+0.75 -4.8 5
2015-08-22 @ Khazar Lankaran D 1-163.1 1411 1552 15.00% 25.68% 59.32%-0.75 +4.8 2
2015-08-23 Kapaz W 1-043.9 1664 1399 68.93% 22.73% 8.35%+1.23 +5.0 7
2015-08-23 @ Gabala L 0-143.9 1399 1664 8.35% 22.73% 68.93%-1.23 -5.0 2
2015-08-23 Qarabag L 0-248.4 1496 1671 21.38% 26.91% 51.71%-0.48 -22.8 0
2015-08-23 @ AZAL W 2-048.4 1671 1496 51.71% 26.91% 21.38%+0.48 +22.8 7
2015-08-23 Sumgayit W 2-157.1 1552 1519 47.83% 27.28% 24.88%+0.33 +12.9 4
2015-08-23 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-257.1 1519 1552 24.88% 27.28% 47.83%-0.33 -12.9 2
2015-08-24 Inter Baku D 0-062.4 1470 1646 21.36% 26.91% 51.73%-0.48 +3.5 5
2015-08-24 @ Zira D 0-062.4 1646 1470 51.73% 26.91% 21.36%+0.48 -3.5 4
2015-09-12 Gabala W 2-165.1 1642 1669 40.15% 27.66% 32.19%+0.10 +15.7 7
2015-09-12 @ Inter Baku L 1-265.1 1669 1642 32.19% 27.66% 40.15%-0.10 -15.7 7
2015-09-12 Khazar Lankaran W 1-051.5 1694 1547 59.88% 25.56% 14.56%+0.78 +8.7 10
2015-09-12 @ Qarabag L 0-151.5 1547 1694 14.56% 25.56% 59.88%-0.78 -8.7 5
2015-09-12 AZAL W 1-047.8 1394 1473 32.80% 27.67% 39.52%-0.10 +19.4 5
2015-09-12 @ Kapaz L 0-147.8 1473 1394 39.52% 27.67% 32.80%+0.10 -19.4 0
2015-09-13 Neftchi Baku L 1-349.2 1416 1565 24.10% 27.22% 48.69%-0.38 -21.8 2
2015-09-13 @ Ravan Baku W 3-149.2 1565 1416 48.69% 27.22% 24.10%+0.38 +21.8 7
2015-09-13 Zira D 0-057.5 1506 1474 47.84% 27.28% 24.87%+0.33 -2.6 3
2015-09-13 @ Sumgayit D 0-057.5 1474 1506 24.87% 27.28% 47.84%-0.33 +2.6 6
2015-09-19 Ravan Baku W 2-148.3 1476 1394 53.58% 26.68% 19.74%+0.53 +10.7 9
2015-09-19 @ Zira L 1-248.3 1394 1476 19.74% 26.68% 53.58%-0.53 -10.7 2
2015-09-19 Inter Baku L 0-149.7 1453 1658 18.64% 26.49% 54.87%-0.59 -10.8 0
2015-09-19 @ AZAL W 1-049.7 1658 1453 54.87% 26.49% 18.64%+0.59 +10.8 10
2015-09-20 Khazar Lankaran D 1-168.4 1586 1538 49.74% 27.12% 23.14%+0.39 -2.7 8
2015-09-20 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-168.4 1538 1586 23.14% 27.12% 49.74%-0.39 +2.7 6
2015-09-20 Qarabag L 2-358.9 1414 1702 12.50% 24.87% 62.63%-0.92 -6.7 5
2015-09-20 @ Kapaz W 3-258.9 1702 1414 62.63% 24.87% 12.50%+0.92 +6.7 13
2015-09-21 Sumgayit W 1-049.5 1653 1504 60.08% 25.51% 14.41%+0.79 +8.6 10
2015-09-21 @ Gabala L 0-149.5 1504 1653 14.41% 25.51% 60.08%-0.79 -8.6 3
2015-09-25 Gabala L 0-340.0 1383 1662 13.12% 25.10% 61.78%-0.88 -21.5 2
2015-09-25 @ Ravan Baku W 3-040.0 1662 1383 61.78% 25.10% 13.12%+0.88 +21.5 13
2015-09-25 Kapaz W 1-044.4 1669 1407 68.75% 22.80% 8.45%+1.22 +5.0 13
2015-09-25 @ Inter Baku L 0-144.4 1407 1669 8.45% 22.80% 68.75%-1.22 -5.1 5
2015-09-26 Neftchi Baku D 1-172.4 1709 1584 57.88% 25.98% 16.14%+0.69 -4.5 14
2015-09-26 @ Qarabag D 1-172.4 1584 1709 16.14% 25.98% 57.88%-0.69 +4.5 9
2015-09-26 AZAL D 1-161.8 1495 1443 50.22% 27.07% 22.70%+0.41 -2.8 4
2015-09-26 @ Sumgayit D 1-161.8 1443 1495 22.70% 27.07% 50.22%-0.41 +2.8 1
2015-09-27 Zira L 0-156.5 1541 1487 50.36% 27.06% 22.58%+0.41 -23.6 6
2015-09-27 @ Khazar Lankaran W 1-056.5 1487 1541 22.58% 27.06% 50.36%-0.41 +23.7 12
2015-10-02 Ravan Baku W 1-039.9 1445 1362 53.72% 26.66% 19.62%+0.53 +11.3 4
2015-10-02 @ AZAL L 0-139.9 1362 1445 19.62% 26.66% 53.72%-0.53 -11.3 2
2015-10-03 Neftchi Baku W 2-052.0 1511 1588 32.96% 27.68% 39.36%-0.10 +36.5 15
2015-10-03 @ Zira L 0-252.0 1588 1511 39.36% 27.68% 32.96%+0.10 -36.5 9
2015-10-04 Khazar Lankaran W 6-046.8 1683 1517 61.53% 25.16% 13.31%+0.85 +41.7 16
2015-10-04 @ Gabala L 0-646.8 1517 1683 13.31% 25.16% 61.53%-0.85 -41.7 6
2015-10-04 Qarabag L 0-257.4 1674 1705 39.55% 27.67% 32.78%+0.08 -36.6 13
2015-10-04 @ Inter Baku W 2-057.4 1705 1674 32.78% 27.67% 39.55%-0.08 +36.6 17
2015-10-04 Sumgayit W 3-151.4 1402 1492 31.20% 27.63% 41.17%-0.15 +32.7 8
2015-10-04 @ Kapaz L 1-351.4 1492 1402 41.17% 27.63% 31.20%+0.15 -32.7 4
2015-10-16 Kapaz L 0-239.6 1350 1435 32.04% 27.66% 40.30%-0.12 -31.3 2
2015-10-16 @ Ravan Baku W 2-039.6 1435 1350 40.30% 27.66% 32.04%+0.12 +31.3 11
2015-10-17 Gabala L 0-154.6 1552 1725 21.60% 26.94% 51.46%-0.47 -12.2 9
2015-10-17 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-054.6 1725 1552 51.46% 26.94% 21.60%+0.47 +12.2 19
2015-10-17 Zira W 4-150.4 1741 1547 63.83% 24.53% 11.65%+0.96 +16.2 20
2015-10-17 @ Qarabag L 1-450.4 1547 1741 11.65% 24.53% 63.83%-0.96 -16.2 15
2015-10-18 Inter Baku D 1-167.6 1460 1637 21.15% 26.88% 51.96%-0.49 +3.2 5
2015-10-18 @ Sumgayit D 1-167.6 1637 1460 51.96% 26.88% 21.15%+0.49 -3.2 14
2015-10-18 AZAL W 3-148.2 1475 1457 46.12% 27.41% 26.47%+0.28 +23.5 9
2015-10-18 @ Khazar Lankaran L 1-348.2 1457 1475 26.47% 27.41% 46.12%-0.28 -23.5 4
2015-10-23 Neftchi Baku W 2-159.1 1433 1540 29.17% 27.56% 43.27%-0.21 +19.6 7
2015-10-23 @ AZAL L 1-259.1 1540 1433 43.27% 27.56% 29.17%+0.21 -19.6 9
2015-10-24 Khazar Lankaran W 1-049.2 1466 1499 39.23% 27.68% 33.09%+0.08 +17.0 14
2015-10-24 @ Kapaz L 0-149.2 1499 1466 33.09% 27.68% 39.23%-0.08 -17.0 9
2015-10-24 Ravan Baku W 2-035.0 1634 1319 72.12% 21.30% 6.59%+1.43 +7.3 17
2015-10-24 @ Inter Baku L 0-235.0 1319 1634 6.59% 21.30% 72.12%-1.43 -7.3 2
2015-10-25 Qarabag W 1-065.4 1463 1757 12.16% 24.74% 63.10%-0.94 +29.0 8
2015-10-25 @ Sumgayit L 0-165.4 1757 1463 63.10% 24.74% 12.16%+0.94 -29.0 20
2015-10-25 Zira D 0-066.8 1737 1531 64.75% 24.24% 11.01%+1.01 -6.7 20
2015-10-25 @ Gabala D 0-066.8 1531 1737 11.01% 24.24% 64.75%-1.01 +6.7 16
2015-10-28 Kapaz D 2-271.0 1538 1483 50.48% 27.05% 22.47%+0.42 -2.1 17
2015-10-28 @ Zira D 2-271.0 1483 1538 22.47% 27.05% 50.48%-0.42 +2.1 15
2015-10-28 Qarabag L 0-142.2 1312 1728 6.84% 21.53% 71.63%-1.42 -4.0 2
2015-10-28 @ Ravan Baku W 1-042.2 1728 1312 71.63% 21.53% 6.84%+1.42 +4.0 23
2015-10-28 Inter Baku D 1-169.3 1520 1641 27.30% 27.46% 45.24%-0.27 +1.8 10
2015-10-28 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-169.3 1641 1520 45.24% 27.46% 27.30%+0.27 -1.8 18
2015-10-28 AZAL D 0-065.6 1730 1453 69.77% 22.37% 7.86%+1.28 -7.8 21
2015-10-28 @ Gabala D 0-065.6 1453 1730 7.86% 22.37% 69.77%-1.28 +7.8 8
2015-10-28 Sumgayit L 1-258.9 1482 1492 42.39% 27.59% 30.02%+0.17 -19.3 9
2015-10-28 @ Khazar Lankaran W 2-158.9 1492 1482 30.02% 27.59% 42.39%-0.17 +19.3 11
2015-10-31 AZAL W 2-043.7 1732 1461 69.40% 22.53% 8.07%+1.26 +9.1 26
2015-10-31 @ Qarabag L 0-243.7 1461 1732 8.07% 22.53% 69.40%-1.26 -9.1 8
2015-10-31 Zira D 0-064.3 1639 1536 55.80% 26.35% 17.86%+0.61 -4.5 19
2015-10-31 @ Inter Baku D 0-064.3 1536 1639 17.86% 26.35% 55.80%-0.61 +4.5 18
2015-11-01 Kapaz L 1-272.6 1722 1485 67.07% 23.45% 9.48%+1.13 -28.9 21
2015-11-01 @ Gabala W 2-172.6 1485 1722 9.48% 23.45% 67.07%-1.13 +28.9 18
2015-11-02 Khazar Lankaran L 0-140.5 1308 1463 23.47% 27.15% 49.38%-0.40 -13.1 2
2015-11-02 @ Ravan Baku W 1-040.5 1463 1308 49.38% 27.15% 23.47%+0.40 +13.1 12
2015-11-02 Neftchi Baku L 1-261.1 1511 1522 42.33% 27.60% 30.08%+0.16 -19.3 11
2015-11-02 @ Sumgayit W 2-161.1 1522 1511 30.08% 27.60% 42.33%-0.16 +19.3 13
2015-11-07 Kapaz D 1-162.6 1452 1514 35.08% 27.70% 37.21%-0.04 +0.2 9
2015-11-07 @ AZAL D 1-162.6 1514 1452 37.21% 27.70% 35.08%+0.04 -0.2 19
2015-11-07 Sumgayit W 3-259.9 1540 1492 49.70% 27.12% 23.17%+0.39 +11.6 21
2015-11-07 @ Zira L 2-359.9 1492 1540 23.17% 27.12% 49.70%-0.39 -11.6 11
2015-11-08 Qarabag L 0-150.8 1476 1741 13.94% 25.37% 60.69%-0.83 -8.3 12
2015-11-08 @ Khazar Lankaran W 1-050.8 1741 1476 60.69% 25.37% 13.94%+0.83 +8.3 29
2015-11-08 Ravan Baku L 2-365.4 1541 1295 67.70% 23.21% 9.09%+1.16 -27.6 13
2015-11-08 @ Neftchi Baku W 3-265.4 1295 1541 9.09% 23.21% 67.70%-1.16 +27.6 5
2015-11-09 Inter Baku D 1-172.5 1694 1635 50.92% 27.00% 22.08%+0.43 -2.9 22
2015-11-09 @ Gabala D 1-172.5 1635 1694 22.08% 27.00% 50.92%-0.43 +3.0 20
2015-11-21 Gabala D 2-276.1 1480 1691 18.14% 26.40% 55.46%-0.61 +2.9 12
2015-11-21 @ Sumgayit D 2-276.1 1691 1480 55.46% 26.40% 18.14%+0.61 -2.9 23
2015-11-21 Kapaz W 3-044.3 1750 1514 66.97% 23.48% 9.54%+1.12 +15.7 32
2015-11-21 @ Qarabag L 0-344.3 1514 1750 9.54% 23.48% 66.97%-1.12 -15.7 19
2015-11-22 Neftchi Baku L 0-247.2 1467 1513 37.40% 27.70% 34.90%+0.03 -35.1 12
2015-11-22 @ Khazar Lankaran W 2-047.2 1513 1467 34.90% 27.70% 37.40%-0.03 +35.1 16
2015-11-22 Zira W 1-052.9 1322 1552 16.57% 26.08% 57.36%-0.69 +26.6 8
2015-11-22 @ Ravan Baku L 0-152.9 1552 1322 57.36% 26.08% 16.57%+0.69 -26.6 21
2015-11-23 AZAL W 2-042.7 1638 1452 63.20% 24.71% 12.09%+0.93 +13.7 23
2015-11-23 @ Inter Baku L 0-242.7 1452 1638 12.09% 24.71% 63.20%-0.93 -13.7 9
2015-11-27 Inter Baku D 0-063.3 1498 1652 23.60% 27.17% 49.23%-0.39 +2.9 20
2015-11-27 @ Kapaz D 0-063.3 1652 1498 49.23% 27.17% 23.60%+0.39 -2.9 24
2015-11-28 Khazar Lankaran W 1-044.3 1525 1432 54.65% 26.53% 18.82%+0.57 +10.9 24
2015-11-28 @ Zira L 0-144.3 1432 1525 18.82% 26.53% 54.65%-0.57 -10.9 12
2015-11-28 Sumgayit W 2-044.3 1438 1483 37.53% 27.70% 34.77%+0.03 +33.3 12
2015-11-28 @ AZAL L 0-244.3 1483 1438 34.77% 27.70% 37.53%-0.03 -33.3 12
2015-11-29 Qarabag W 1-065.2 1548 1765 17.57% 26.29% 56.14%-0.64 +26.1 19
2015-11-29 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-165.2 1765 1548 56.14% 26.29% 17.57%+0.64 -26.1 32
2015-11-30 Ravan Baku D 1-167.4 1688 1349 73.52% 20.60% 5.89%+1.52 -7.6 24
2015-11-30 @ Gabala D 1-167.4 1349 1688 5.89% 20.60% 73.52%-1.52 +7.6 9
2015-12-06 Gabala L 0-147.9 1421 1680 14.41% 25.51% 60.07%-0.80 -8.6 12
2015-12-06 @ Khazar Lankaran W 1-047.9 1680 1421 60.07% 25.51% 14.41%+0.80 +8.6 27
2015-12-06 Inter Baku W 1-054.9 1739 1649 54.42% 26.56% 19.02%+0.56 +11.0 35
2015-12-06 @ Qarabag L 0-154.9 1649 1739 19.02% 26.56% 54.42%-0.56 -11.0 24
2015-12-06 Zira D 1-167.9 1575 1536 48.58% 27.22% 24.20%+0.36 -2.5 20
2015-12-06 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-167.9 1536 1575 24.20% 27.22% 48.58%-0.36 +2.5 25
2015-12-07 Kapaz D 2-268.2 1450 1501 36.71% 27.70% 35.58%+0.01 -0.1 13
2015-12-07 @ Sumgayit D 2-268.2 1501 1450 35.58% 27.70% 36.71%-0.01 +0.1 21
2015-12-07 AZAL D 0-052.5 1356 1471 28.07% 27.50% 44.43%-0.24 +1.8 10
2015-12-07 @ Ravan Baku D 0-052.5 1471 1356 44.43% 27.50% 28.07%+0.24 -1.8 13
2015-12-11 Ravan Baku D 0-053.9 1501 1358 59.51% 25.64% 14.85%+0.76 -5.4 22
2015-12-11 @ Kapaz D 0-053.9 1358 1501 14.85% 25.64% 59.51%-0.76 +5.4 11
2015-12-11 Sumgayit L 2-373.2 1638 1450 63.34% 24.67% 11.99%+0.94 -26.0 24
2015-12-11 @ Inter Baku W 3-273.2 1450 1638 11.99% 24.67% 63.34%-0.94 +26.0 16
2015-12-13 Khazar Lankaran W 1-042.9 1470 1413 50.72% 27.02% 22.26%+0.43 +12.5 16
2015-12-13 @ AZAL L 0-142.9 1413 1470 22.26% 27.02% 50.72%-0.43 -12.5 12
2015-12-13 Neftchi Baku L 0-164.7 1689 1572 57.05% 26.13% 16.82%+0.66 -26.4 27
2015-12-13 @ Gabala W 1-064.7 1572 1689 16.82% 26.13% 57.05%-0.66 +26.4 23
2015-12-13 Qarabag D 0-066.4 1538 1750 17.99% 26.37% 55.64%-0.62 +4.4 26
2015-12-13 @ Zira D 0-066.4 1750 1538 55.64% 26.37% 17.99%+0.62 -4.4 36
2015-12-15 Inter Baku L 0-239.7 1364 1612 15.15% 25.72% 59.12%-0.76 -16.9 11
2015-12-15 @ Ravan Baku W 2-039.7 1612 1364 59.12% 25.72% 15.15%+0.76 +16.9 27
2015-12-16 Gabala W 1-060.4 1543 1662 27.53% 27.47% 44.99%-0.26 +21.5 29
2015-12-16 @ Zira L 0-160.4 1662 1543 44.99% 27.47% 27.53%+0.26 -21.5 27
2015-12-16 Sumgayit D 2-278.4 1746 1476 69.29% 22.58% 8.14%+1.26 -5.1 37
2015-12-16 @ Qarabag D 2-278.4 1476 1746 8.14% 22.58% 69.29%-1.26 +5.1 17
2015-12-17 Kapaz L 0-146.0 1400 1496 30.58% 27.61% 41.81%-0.17 -16.0 12
2015-12-17 @ Khazar Lankaran W 1-046.0 1496 1400 41.81% 27.61% 30.58%+0.17 +16.0 25
2015-12-17 AZAL L 0-160.1 1598 1482 57.03% 26.14% 16.84%+0.66 -26.4 23
2015-12-17 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-060.1 1482 1598 16.84% 26.14% 57.03%-0.66 +26.4 19
2015-12-19 Gabala D 1-173.2 1741 1641 55.40% 26.41% 18.19%+0.59 -3.9 38
2015-12-19 @ Qarabag D 1-173.2 1641 1741 18.19% 26.41% 55.40%-0.59 +3.9 28
2015-12-19 Ravan Baku D 3-368.0 1481 1347 58.74% 25.80% 15.45%+0.73 -2.9 18
2015-12-19 @ Sumgayit D 3-368.0 1347 1481 15.45% 25.80% 58.74%-0.73 +2.9 12
2015-12-20 Khazar Lankaran W 2-038.6 1629 1384 67.56% 23.26% 9.17%+1.16 +10.4 30
2015-12-20 @ Inter Baku L 0-238.6 1384 1629 9.17% 23.26% 67.56%-1.16 -10.4 12
2015-12-20 Neftchi Baku D 1-166.9 1512 1572 35.34% 27.70% 36.96%-0.03 +0.2 26
2015-12-20 @ Kapaz D 1-166.9 1572 1512 36.96% 27.70% 35.34%+0.03 -0.1 24
2015-12-20 Zira W 1-054.1 1509 1564 36.02% 27.70% 36.28%-0.01 +18.2 22
2015-12-20 @ AZAL L 0-154.1 1564 1509 36.28% 27.70% 36.02%+0.01 -18.2 29
2016-01-30 Gabala W 3-054.4 1512 1645 25.93% 27.37% 46.70%-0.31 +60.7 29
2016-01-30 @ Kapaz L 0-354.4 1645 1512 46.70% 27.37% 25.93%+0.31 -60.7 28
2016-01-30 Sumgayit W 1-047.7 1572 1478 54.75% 26.51% 18.74%+0.57 +10.8 27
2016-01-30 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-147.7 1478 1572 18.74% 26.51% 54.75%-0.57 -10.8 18
2016-01-31 Qarabag W 1-064.4 1527 1737 18.15% 26.41% 55.44%-0.61 +25.8 25
2016-01-31 @ AZAL L 0-164.4 1737 1527 55.44% 26.41% 18.15%+0.61 -25.8 38
2016-01-31 Ravan Baku D 0-050.4 1374 1350 46.83% 27.36% 25.81%+0.30 -2.4 13
2016-01-31 @ Khazar Lankaran D 0-050.4 1350 1374 25.81% 27.36% 46.83%-0.30 +2.4 13
2016-01-31 Inter Baku W 2-165.6 1546 1639 30.88% 27.62% 41.49%-0.16 +19.0 32
2016-01-31 @ Zira L 1-265.6 1639 1546 41.49% 27.62% 30.88%+0.16 -19.0 30
2016-02-06 Khazar Lankaran W 3-037.8 1711 1372 73.55% 20.58% 5.87%+1.53 +9.3 41
2016-02-06 @ Qarabag L 0-337.8 1372 1711 5.87% 20.58% 73.55%-1.53 -9.3 13
2016-02-06 Zira L 0-246.9 1467 1565 30.27% 27.60% 42.13%-0.18 -30.0 18
2016-02-06 @ Sumgayit W 2-046.9 1565 1467 42.13% 27.60% 30.27%+0.18 +30.0 35
2016-02-07 Gabala L 0-161.3 1620 1584 48.28% 27.25% 24.48%+0.35 -22.8 30
2016-02-07 @ Inter Baku W 1-061.3 1584 1620 24.48% 27.25% 48.28%-0.35 +22.8 31
2016-02-07 AZAL W 2-048.9 1572 1553 46.28% 27.40% 26.32%+0.28 +27.0 32
2016-02-07 @ Kapaz L 0-248.9 1553 1572 26.32% 27.40% 46.28%-0.28 -27.0 25
2016-02-13 Khazar Lankaran W 1-040.5 1583 1362 65.85% 23.88% 10.27%+1.06 +6.2 30
2016-02-13 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-140.5 1362 1583 10.27% 23.88% 65.85%-1.06 -6.2 13
2016-02-13 Inter Baku D 0-062.4 1526 1597 33.76% 27.69% 38.55%-0.07 +0.5 26
2016-02-13 @ AZAL D 0-062.4 1597 1526 38.55% 27.69% 33.76%+0.07 -0.5 31
2016-02-14 Qarabag L 1-263.7 1599 1720 27.35% 27.46% 45.19%-0.27 -13.9 32
2016-02-14 @ Kapaz W 2-163.7 1720 1599 45.19% 27.46% 27.35%+0.27 +13.9 44
2016-02-14 Sumgayit W 1-045.3 1607 1437 61.83% 25.09% 13.09%+0.86 +7.8 34
2016-02-14 @ Gabala L 0-145.3 1437 1607 13.09% 25.09% 61.83%-0.86 -7.8 18
2016-02-15 Ravan Baku W 2-146.7 1595 1352 67.48% 23.30% 9.23%+1.15 +5.2 38
2016-02-15 @ Zira L 1-246.7 1352 1595 9.23% 23.30% 67.48%-1.15 -5.2 13
2016-02-19 Kapaz W 1-054.6 1597 1586 45.17% 27.46% 27.37%+0.25 +14.7 34
2016-02-19 @ Inter Baku L 0-154.6 1586 1597 27.37% 27.46% 45.17%-0.25 -14.7 32
2016-02-20 Neftchi Baku W 2-048.8 1734 1589 59.74% 25.59% 14.67%+0.77 +16.4 47
2016-02-20 @ Qarabag L 0-248.8 1589 1734 14.67% 25.59% 59.74%-0.77 -16.4 30
2016-02-20 AZAL W 2-047.6 1430 1526 30.41% 27.61% 41.98%-0.17 +38.3 21
2016-02-20 @ Sumgayit L 0-247.6 1526 1430 41.98% 27.61% 30.41%+0.17 -38.3 26
2016-02-21 Gabala L 0-142.5 1347 1615 13.79% 25.32% 60.88%-0.84 -8.2 13
2016-02-21 @ Ravan Baku W 1-042.5 1615 1347 60.88% 25.32% 13.79%+0.84 +8.2 37
2016-02-21 Zira L 0-239.1 1356 1600 15.44% 25.80% 58.76%-0.75 -17.2 13
2016-02-21 @ Khazar Lankaran W 2-039.1 1600 1356 58.76% 25.80% 15.44%+0.75 +17.2 41
2016-02-27 Khazar Lankaran D 0-058.3 1623 1339 70.20% 22.18% 7.62%+1.31 -7.9 38
2016-02-27 @ Gabala D 0-058.3 1339 1623 7.62% 22.18% 70.20%-1.31 +7.9 14
2016-02-27 Neftchi Baku W 3-048.2 1618 1572 49.34% 27.16% 23.50%+0.38 +35.8 44
2016-02-27 @ Zira L 0-348.2 1572 1618 23.50% 27.16% 49.34%-0.38 -35.8 30
2016-02-27 Qarabag D 1-172.7 1612 1751 25.21% 27.31% 47.48%-0.34 +2.2 35
2016-02-27 @ Inter Baku D 1-172.7 1751 1612 47.48% 27.31% 25.21%+0.34 -2.2 48
2016-02-27 Ravan Baku W 1-038.5 1488 1338 60.09% 25.51% 14.40%+0.79 +8.6 29
2016-02-27 @ AZAL L 0-138.5 1338 1488 14.40% 25.51% 60.09%-0.79 -8.6 13
2016-02-27 Sumgayit D 0-059.9 1571 1468 55.70% 26.36% 17.94%+0.61 -4.5 33
2016-02-27 @ Kapaz D 0-059.9 1468 1571 17.94% 26.36% 55.70%-0.61 +4.5 22
2016-03-05 Gabala L 1-262.2 1537 1615 32.85% 27.67% 39.47%-0.10 -16.0 30
2016-03-05 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-162.2 1615 1537 39.47% 27.67% 32.85%+0.10 +16.0 41
2016-03-05 Inter Baku L 0-151.0 1472 1614 24.95% 27.29% 47.76%-0.35 -13.7 22
2016-03-05 @ Sumgayit W 1-051.0 1614 1472 47.76% 27.29% 24.95%+0.35 +13.7 38
2016-03-05 AZAL L 0-142.3 1347 1496 24.04% 27.21% 48.75%-0.38 -13.3 14
2016-03-05 @ Khazar Lankaran W 1-042.3 1496 1347 48.75% 27.21% 24.04%+0.38 +13.3 32
2016-03-05 Zira W 2-051.0 1748 1653 54.90% 26.49% 18.61%+0.58 +20.3 51
2016-03-05 @ Qarabag L 0-251.0 1653 1748 18.61% 26.49% 54.90%-0.58 -20.3 44
2016-03-06 Kapaz L 1-343.4 1330 1566 16.02% 25.95% 58.04%-0.72 -15.4 13
2016-03-06 @ Ravan Baku W 3-143.4 1566 1330 58.04% 25.95% 16.02%+0.72 +15.4 36
2016-03-13 Khazar Lankaran W 2-034.9 1582 1333 67.84% 23.16% 9.00%+1.17 +10.2 39
2016-03-13 @ Kapaz L 0-234.9 1333 1582 9.00% 23.16% 67.84%-1.17 -10.2 14
2016-03-13 Neftchi Baku D 1-165.0 1510 1521 42.24% 27.60% 30.16%+0.16 -1.2 33
2016-03-13 @ AZAL D 1-165.0 1521 1510 30.16% 27.60% 42.24%-0.16 +1.2 31
2016-03-13 Qarabag L 0-246.0 1459 1769 11.28% 24.37% 64.35%-1.00 -12.8 22
2016-03-13 @ Sumgayit W 2-046.0 1769 1459 64.35% 24.37% 11.28%+1.00 +12.8 54
2016-03-13 Ravan Baku W 3-140.8 1627 1314 72.00% 21.36% 6.65%+1.42 +6.4 41
2016-03-13 @ Inter Baku L 1-340.8 1314 1627 6.65% 21.36% 72.00%-1.42 -6.4 13
2016-03-13 Zira L 1-267.8 1631 1633 43.44% 27.55% 29.01%+0.20 -19.7 41
2016-03-13 @ Gabala W 2-167.8 1633 1631 29.01% 27.55% 43.44%-0.20 +19.7 47
2016-03-18 Sumgayit L 1-247.4 1308 1446 25.38% 27.33% 47.30%-0.33 -13.1 13
2016-03-18 @ Ravan Baku W 2-147.4 1446 1308 47.30% 27.33% 25.38%+0.33 +13.1 25
2016-03-19 Kapaz L 2-366.1 1522 1592 33.99% 27.69% 38.32%-0.07 -15.5 31
2016-03-19 @ Neftchi Baku W 3-266.1 1592 1522 38.32% 27.69% 33.99%+0.07 +15.5 42
2016-03-19 Qarabag L 1-262.5 1611 1782 21.86% 26.97% 51.17%-0.46 -11.6 41
2016-03-19 @ Gabala W 2-162.5 1782 1611 51.17% 26.97% 21.86%+0.46 +11.6 57
2016-03-20 Inter Baku L 0-141.3 1323 1634 11.26% 24.36% 64.38%-1.01 -6.8 14
2016-03-20 @ Khazar Lankaran W 1-041.3 1634 1323 64.38% 24.36% 11.26%+1.01 +6.8 44
2016-03-20 AZAL W 4-255.1 1653 1508 59.64% 25.61% 14.75%+0.77 +12.8 50
2016-03-20 @ Zira L 2-455.1 1508 1653 14.75% 25.61% 59.64%-0.77 -12.8 33
2016-03-30 Gabala W 2-163.5 1496 1600 29.46% 27.57% 42.97%-0.20 +19.5 36
2016-03-30 @ AZAL L 1-263.5 1600 1496 42.97% 27.57% 29.46%+0.20 -19.5 41
2016-03-30 Khazar Lankaran W 2-144.2 1459 1316 59.48% 25.65% 14.88%+0.76 +8.3 28
2016-03-30 @ Sumgayit L 1-244.2 1316 1459 14.88% 25.65% 59.48%-0.76 -8.3 14
2016-03-30 Neftchi Baku L 0-162.6 1641 1506 58.72% 25.81% 15.47%+0.73 -27.1 44
2016-03-30 @ Inter Baku W 1-062.6 1506 1641 15.47% 25.81% 58.72%-0.73 +27.1 34
2016-03-30 Ravan Baku W 5-139.1 1793 1295 81.41% 15.82% 2.77%+2.15 +4.3 60
2016-03-30 @ Qarabag L 1-539.1 1295 1793 2.77% 15.82% 81.41%-2.15 -4.3 13
2016-03-30 Zira W 2-055.4 1607 1666 35.68% 27.70% 36.61%-0.02 +34.5 45
2016-03-30 @ Kapaz L 0-255.4 1666 1607 36.61% 27.70% 35.68%+0.02 -34.5 50
2016-04-03 Kapaz W 3-054.2 1515 1642 26.65% 27.42% 45.94%-0.29 +59.9 39
2016-04-03 @ AZAL L 0-354.2 1642 1515 45.94% 27.42% 26.65%+0.29 -59.9 45
2016-04-03 Neftchi Baku W 1-059.0 1291 1534 15.54% 25.83% 58.63%-0.74 +27.1 16
2016-04-03 @ Ravan Baku L 0-159.0 1534 1291 58.63% 25.83% 15.54%+0.74 -27.1 34
2016-04-03 Qarabag L 1-249.9 1308 1798 4.86% 19.38% 75.76%-1.70 -2.6 14
2016-04-03 @ Khazar Lankaran W 2-149.9 1798 1308 75.76% 19.38% 4.86%+1.70 +2.6 63
2016-04-03 Ravan Baku D 1-159.0 1506 1318 63.40% 24.65% 11.94%+0.94 -5.7 35
2016-04-03 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-159.0 1318 1506 11.94% 24.65% 63.40%-0.94 +5.7 17
2016-04-03 Inter Baku D 0-064.3 1580 1613 39.19% 27.68% 33.13%+0.07 -0.6 42
2016-04-03 @ Gabala D 0-064.3 1613 1580 33.13% 27.68% 39.19%-0.07 +0.6 45
2016-04-03 Sumgayit W 1-047.4 1631 1467 61.35% 25.21% 13.44%+0.84 +8.0 53
2016-04-03 @ Zira L 0-147.4 1467 1631 13.44% 25.21% 61.35%-0.84 -8.0 28
2016-04-08 Kapaz W 4-046.5 1800 1582 65.66% 23.94% 10.39%+1.05 +22.4 66
2016-04-08 @ Qarabag L 0-446.5 1582 1800 10.39% 23.94% 65.66%-1.05 -22.4 45
2016-04-09 Gabala D 1-165.4 1459 1579 27.43% 27.47% 45.10%-0.26 +1.8 29
2016-04-09 @ Sumgayit D 1-165.4 1579 1459 45.10% 27.47% 27.43%+0.26 -1.7 43
2016-04-09 AZAL W 1-053.8 1614 1575 48.63% 27.22% 24.15%+0.36 +13.4 48
2016-04-09 @ Inter Baku L 0-153.8 1575 1614 24.15% 27.22% 48.63%-0.36 -13.4 39
2016-04-10 Neftchi Baku L 0-139.9 1306 1501 19.47% 26.64% 53.90%-0.56 -11.2 14
2016-04-10 @ Khazar Lankaran W 1-039.9 1501 1306 53.90% 26.64% 19.47%+0.56 +11.2 38
2016-04-10 Zira L 0-436.4 1323 1639 11.00% 24.24% 64.76%-1.02 -23.7 17
2016-04-10 @ Ravan Baku W 4-036.4 1639 1323 64.76% 24.24% 11.00%+1.02 +23.7 56
2016-04-15 Ravan Baku W 2-033.1 1578 1300 69.81% 22.35% 7.84%+1.29 +8.8 46
2016-04-15 @ Gabala L 0-233.1 1300 1578 7.84% 22.35% 69.81%-1.29 -8.8 17
2016-04-16 Qarabag L 1-258.1 1512 1822 11.27% 24.36% 64.37%-1.01 -6.4 38
2016-04-16 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-158.1 1822 1512 64.37% 24.36% 11.27%+1.01 +6.4 69
2016-04-16 Inter Baku D 1-169.9 1560 1627 34.32% 27.70% 37.99%-0.06 +0.3 46
2016-04-16 @ Kapaz D 1-169.9 1627 1560 37.99% 27.70% 34.32%+0.06 -0.4 49
2016-04-17 Khazar Lankaran W 1-038.1 1663 1294 75.15% 19.72% 5.13%+1.64 +2.9 59
2016-04-17 @ Zira L 0-138.1 1294 1663 5.13% 19.72% 75.15%-1.64 -2.9 14
2016-04-17 Sumgayit W 1-046.5 1562 1461 55.47% 26.40% 18.13%+0.60 +10.5 42
2016-04-17 @ AZAL L 0-146.5 1461 1562 18.13% 26.40% 55.47%-0.60 -10.5 29
2016-04-22 Inter Baku W 2-048.4 1829 1627 64.44% 24.34% 11.22%+0.99 +12.7 72
2016-04-22 @ Qarabag L 0-248.4 1627 1829 11.22% 24.34% 64.44%-0.99 -12.7 49
2016-04-23 Gabala L 0-139.0 1291 1586 12.12% 24.72% 63.15%-0.94 -7.3 14
2016-04-23 @ Khazar Lankaran W 1-039.0 1586 1291 63.15% 24.72% 12.12%+0.94 +7.3 49
2016-04-23 Zira D 0-063.9 1506 1666 22.92% 27.10% 49.98%-0.42 +3.1 39
2016-04-23 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-063.9 1666 1506 49.98% 27.10% 22.92%+0.42 -3.1 60
2016-04-24 Kapaz L 2-360.9 1450 1560 28.73% 27.54% 43.73%-0.22 -13.7 29
2016-04-24 @ Sumgayit W 3-260.9 1560 1450 43.73% 27.54% 28.73%+0.22 +13.7 49
2016-04-24 AZAL W 1-053.6 1291 1572 12.95% 25.04% 62.01%-0.89 +28.5 20
2016-04-24 @ Ravan Baku L 0-153.6 1572 1291 62.01% 25.04% 12.95%+0.89 -28.5 42
2016-04-30 Khazar Lankaran W 1-036.0 1544 1284 68.60% 22.86% 8.54%+1.22 +5.1 45
2016-04-30 @ AZAL L 0-136.0 1284 1544 8.54% 22.86% 68.60%-1.22 -5.1 14
2016-04-30 Ravan Baku W 3-249.3 1574 1320 68.24% 23.00% 8.76%+1.20 +4.7 52
2016-04-30 @ Kapaz L 2-349.3 1320 1574 8.76% 23.00% 68.24%-1.20 -4.7 20
2016-05-01 Neftchi Baku D 2-274.0 1594 1509 53.85% 26.64% 19.51%+0.54 -2.7 50
2016-05-01 @ Gabala D 2-274.0 1509 1594 19.51% 26.64% 53.85%-0.54 +2.7 40
2016-05-01 Qarabag L 0-252.3 1663 1842 20.99% 26.86% 52.15%-0.49 -22.5 60
2016-05-01 @ Zira W 2-052.3 1842 1663 52.15% 26.86% 20.99%+0.49 +22.5 75
2016-05-01 Sumgayit D 2-272.8 1614 1437 62.52% 24.90% 12.58%+0.90 -4.1 50
2016-05-01 @ Inter Baku D 2-272.8 1437 1614 12.58% 24.90% 62.52%-0.90 +4.1 30
2016-05-07 Gabala L 0-356.9 1640 1591 49.80% 27.11% 23.08%+0.40 -64.1 60
2016-05-07 @ Zira W 3-056.9 1591 1640 23.08% 27.11% 49.80%-0.40 +64.1 53
2016-05-07 Kapaz L 0-332.9 1279 1578 11.87% 24.62% 63.50%-0.96 -19.5 14
2016-05-07 @ Khazar Lankaran W 3-032.9 1578 1279 63.50% 24.62% 11.87%+0.96 +19.5 55
2016-05-07 Inter Baku L 0-435.6 1315 1610 12.10% 24.72% 63.18%-0.95 -26.0 20
2016-05-07 @ Ravan Baku W 4-035.6 1610 1315 63.18% 24.72% 12.10%+0.95 +26.0 53
2016-05-07 AZAL W 3-155.2 1511 1549 38.61% 27.69% 33.70%+0.06 +28.2 43
2016-05-07 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-355.2 1549 1511 33.70% 27.69% 38.61%-0.06 -28.2 45
2016-05-07 Sumgayit W 1-047.0 1864 1441 77.98% 18.06% 3.96%+1.85 +2.2 78
2016-05-07 @ Qarabag L 0-147.0 1441 1864 3.96% 18.06% 77.98%-1.85 -2.2 30
2016-05-11 Gabala W 2-048.4 1866 1655 65.14% 24.12% 10.74%+1.03 +12.2 81
2016-05-11 @ Qarabag L 0-248.4 1655 1866 10.74% 24.12% 65.14%-1.03 -12.2 53
2016-05-11 Khazar Lankaran W 2-142.5 1636 1259 75.60% 19.47% 4.93%+1.67 +2.6 56
2016-05-11 @ Inter Baku L 1-242.5 1259 1636 4.93% 19.47% 75.60%-1.67 -2.6 14
2016-05-11 Neftchi Baku L 1-267.0 1598 1539 50.92% 27.00% 22.08%+0.43 -22.5 55
2016-05-11 @ Kapaz W 2-167.0 1539 1598 22.08% 27.00% 50.92%-0.43 +22.5 46
2016-05-11 Ravan Baku W 3-138.8 1439 1289 60.13% 25.50% 14.37%+0.79 +14.0 33
2016-05-11 @ Sumgayit L 1-338.8 1289 1439 14.37% 25.50% 60.13%-0.79 -14.0 20
2016-05-11 Zira D 1-167.3 1521 1576 36.08% 27.70% 36.22%-0.01 +0.0 46
2016-05-11 @ AZAL D 1-167.3 1576 1521 36.22% 27.70% 36.08%+0.01 -0.0 61
2016-05-15 Kapaz D 2-275.2 1576 1576 43.76% 27.54% 28.70%+0.21 -1.1 62
2016-05-15 @ Zira D 2-275.2 1576 1576 28.70% 27.54% 43.76%-0.21 +1.1 56
2016-05-15 Qarabag W 2-173.2 1275 1878 2.83% 15.95% 81.22%-2.15 +32.8 23
2016-05-15 @ Ravan Baku L 1-273.2 1878 1275 81.22% 15.95% 2.83%+2.15 -32.8 81
2016-05-15 Inter Baku W 4-264.1 1562 1639 33.03% 27.68% 39.29%-0.10 +28.2 49
2016-05-15 @ Neftchi Baku L 2-464.1 1639 1562 39.29% 27.68% 33.03%+0.10 -28.2 56
2016-05-15 AZAL W 2-046.6 1643 1521 57.61% 26.03% 16.36%+0.68 +18.1 56
2016-05-15 @ Gabala L 0-246.6 1521 1643 16.36% 26.03% 57.61%-0.68 -18.1 46
2016-05-15 Sumgayit L 1-244.7 1257 1453 19.42% 26.63% 53.95%-0.56 -10.5 14
2016-05-15 @ Khazar Lankaran W 2-144.7 1453 1257 53.95% 26.63% 19.42%+0.56 +10.5 36
2016-05-20 Gabala L 0-157.3 1577 1661 32.00% 27.66% 40.34%-0.12 -16.6 56
2016-05-20 @ Kapaz W 1-057.3 1661 1577 40.34% 27.66% 32.00%+0.12 +16.6 59
2016-05-20 Khazar Lankaran D 2-261.0 1308 1246 51.24% 26.97% 21.79%+0.44 -2.3 24
2016-05-20 @ Ravan Baku D 2-261.0 1246 1308 21.79% 26.97% 51.24%-0.44 +2.2 15
2016-05-20 Neftchi Baku W 2-162.9 1463 1590 26.62% 27.42% 45.97%-0.29 +20.6 39
2016-05-20 @ Sumgayit L 1-262.9 1590 1463 45.97% 27.42% 26.62%+0.29 -20.6 49
2016-05-20 AZAL W 3-043.4 1846 1502 73.75% 20.47% 5.77%+1.54 +9.1 84
2016-05-20 @ Qarabag L 0-343.4 1502 1846 5.77% 20.47% 73.75%-1.54 -9.1 46
2016-05-20 Zira W 1-053.8 1611 1575 48.25% 27.25% 24.49%+0.34 +13.5 59
2016-05-20 @ Inter Baku L 0-153.8 1575 1611 24.49% 27.25% 48.25%-0.34 -13.5 62

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2016-05-15 2.83% @ Ravan Baku 1275 2 Qarabag 1878 1
2 2015-11-08 9.09% Ravan Baku 1295 3 @ Neftchi Baku 1541 2
3 2015-11-01 9.48% Kapaz 1485 2 @ Gabala 1722 1
4 2015-12-11 11.99% Sumgayit 1450 3 @ Inter Baku 1638 2
5 2015-10-25 12.16% @ Sumgayit 1463 1 Qarabag 1757 0
6 2016-04-24 12.95% @ Ravan Baku 1291 1 AZAL 1572 0
7 2016-03-30 15.47% Neftchi Baku 1506 1 @ Inter Baku 1641 0
8 2016-04-03 15.54% @ Ravan Baku 1291 1 Neftchi Baku 1534 0
9 2015-11-22 16.57% @ Ravan Baku 1322 1 Zira 1552 0
10 2015-12-13 16.82% Neftchi Baku 1572 1 @ Gabala 1689 0
11 2015-12-17 16.84% AZAL 1482 1 @ Neftchi Baku 1598 0
12 2015-11-29 17.57% @ Neftchi Baku 1548 1 Qarabag 1765 0
13 2016-01-31 18.15% @ AZAL 1527 1 Qarabag 1737 0
14 2015-08-09 21.49% @ Khazar Lankaran 1505 2 Inter Baku 1679 0
15 2016-05-11 22.08% Neftchi Baku 1539 2 @ Kapaz 1598 1
16 2015-09-27 22.58% Zira 1487 1 @ Khazar Lankaran 1541 0
17 2016-05-07 23.08% Gabala 1591 3 @ Zira 1640 0
18 2016-02-07 24.48% Gabala 1584 1 @ Inter Baku 1620 0
19 2016-01-30 25.93% @ Kapaz 1512 3 Gabala 1645 0
20 2016-05-20 26.62% @ Sumgayit 1463 2 Neftchi Baku 1590 1
21 2016-04-03 26.65% @ AZAL 1515 3 Kapaz 1642 0
22 2015-12-16 27.53% @ Zira 1543 1 Gabala 1662 0
23 2016-03-13 29.01% Zira 1633 2 @ Gabala 1631 1
24 2015-10-23 29.17% @ AZAL 1433 2 Neftchi Baku 1540 1
25 2016-03-30 29.46% @ AZAL 1496 2 Gabala 1600 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-05-07 64.12 Gabala 3 1591 23.08% @ Zira 0 1640 49.80% 27.11%
2 2016-01-30 60.70 @ Kapaz 3 1512 25.93% Gabala 0 1645 46.70% 27.37%
3 2016-04-03 59.87 @ AZAL 3 1515 26.65% Kapaz 0 1642 45.94% 27.42%
4 2015-08-09 45.52 @ Khazar Lankaran 2 1505 21.49% Inter Baku 0 1679 51.58% 26.93%
5 2015-10-04 41.68 @ Gabala 6 1683 61.53% Khazar Lankaran 0 1517 13.31% 25.16%
6 2016-02-20 38.32 @ Sumgayit 2 1430 30.41% AZAL 0 1526 41.98% 27.61%
7 2015-10-04 36.58 Qarabag 2 1705 32.78% @ Inter Baku 0 1674 39.55% 27.67%
8 2015-10-03 36.45 @ Zira 2 1511 32.96% Neftchi Baku 0 1588 39.36% 27.68%
9 2016-02-27 35.81 @ Zira 3 1618 49.34% Neftchi Baku 0 1572 23.50% 27.16%
10 2015-11-22 35.09 Neftchi Baku 2 1513 34.90% @ Khazar Lankaran 0 1467 37.40% 27.70%
11 2016-03-30 34.55 @ Kapaz 2 1607 35.68% Zira 0 1666 36.61% 27.70%
12 2015-11-28 33.28 @ AZAL 2 1438 37.53% Sumgayit 0 1483 34.77% 27.70%
13 2016-05-15 32.83 @ Ravan Baku 2 1275 2.83% Qarabag 1 1878 81.22% 15.95%
14 2015-10-04 32.68 @ Kapaz 3 1402 31.20% Sumgayit 1 1492 41.17% 27.63%
15 2015-10-16 31.33 Kapaz 2 1435 40.30% @ Ravan Baku 0 1350 32.04% 27.66%
16 2016-02-06 30.02 Zira 2 1565 42.13% @ Sumgayit 0 1467 30.27% 27.60%
17 2015-10-25 29.00 @ Sumgayit 1 1463 12.16% Qarabag 0 1757 63.10% 24.74%
18 2015-11-01 28.86 Kapaz 2 1485 9.48% @ Gabala 1 1722 67.07% 23.45%
19 2015-08-15 28.80 Gabala 2 1635 43.82% @ AZAL 0 1524 28.65% 27.53%
20 2016-04-24 28.54 @ Ravan Baku 1 1291 12.95% AZAL 0 1572 62.01% 25.04%
21 2016-05-15 28.20 @ Neftchi Baku 4 1562 33.03% Inter Baku 2 1639 39.29% 27.68%
22 2016-05-07 28.16 @ Neftchi Baku 3 1511 38.61% AZAL 1 1549 33.70% 27.69%
23 2015-11-08 27.59 Ravan Baku 3 1295 9.09% @ Neftchi Baku 2 1541 67.70% 23.21%
24 2016-03-30 27.15 Neftchi Baku 1 1506 15.47% @ Inter Baku 0 1641 58.72% 25.81%
25 2016-04-03 27.12 @ Ravan Baku 1 1291 15.54% Neftchi Baku 0 1534 58.63% 25.83%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-12-16 78.4 @ Qarabag 2 1746 69.29% Sumgayit 2 1476 8.14% 22.58%
2 2015-08-10 78.2 @ Gabala 2 1635 39.67% Qarabag 2 1665 32.66% 27.67%
3 2015-11-21 76.1 @ Sumgayit 2 1480 18.14% Gabala 2 1691 55.46% 26.40%
4 2016-05-15 75.2 @ Zira 2 1576 43.76% Kapaz 2 1576 28.70% 27.54%
5 2016-05-01 74.0 @ Gabala 2 1594 53.85% Neftchi Baku 2 1509 19.51% 26.64%
6 2015-12-11 73.2 Sumgayit 3 1450 11.99% @ Inter Baku 2 1638 63.34% 24.67%
7 2015-12-19 73.2 @ Qarabag 1 1741 55.40% Gabala 1 1641 18.19% 26.41%
8 2016-05-15 73.2 @ Ravan Baku 2 1275 2.83% Qarabag 1 1878 81.22% 15.95%
9 2016-05-01 72.8 @ Inter Baku 2 1614 62.52% Sumgayit 2 1437 12.58% 24.90%
10 2016-02-27 72.7 @ Inter Baku 1 1612 25.21% Qarabag 1 1751 47.48% 27.31%
11 2015-11-01 72.6 Kapaz 2 1485 9.48% @ Gabala 1 1722 67.07% 23.45%
12 2015-11-09 72.5 @ Gabala 1 1694 50.92% Inter Baku 1 1635 22.08% 27.00%
13 2015-09-26 72.4 @ Qarabag 1 1709 57.88% Neftchi Baku 1 1584 16.14% 25.98%
14 2015-10-28 71.0 @ Zira 2 1538 50.48% Kapaz 2 1483 22.47% 27.05%
15 2016-04-16 69.9 @ Kapaz 1 1560 34.32% Inter Baku 1 1627 37.99% 27.70%
16 2015-10-28 69.3 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1520 27.30% Inter Baku 1 1641 45.24% 27.46%
17 2015-09-20 68.4 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1586 49.74% Khazar Lankaran 1 1538 23.14% 27.12%
18 2015-12-07 68.2 @ Sumgayit 2 1450 36.71% Kapaz 2 1501 35.58% 27.70%
19 2015-12-19 68.0 @ Sumgayit 3 1481 58.74% Ravan Baku 3 1347 15.45% 25.80%
20 2015-12-06 67.9 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1575 48.58% Zira 1 1536 24.20% 27.22%
21 2016-03-13 67.8 Zira 2 1633 29.01% @ Gabala 1 1631 43.44% 27.55%
22 2015-10-18 67.6 @ Sumgayit 1 1460 21.15% Inter Baku 1 1637 51.96% 26.88%
23 2015-11-30 67.4 @ Gabala 1 1688 73.52% Ravan Baku 1 1349 5.89% 20.60%
24 2016-05-11 67.3 @ AZAL 1 1521 36.08% Zira 1 1576 36.22% 27.70%
25 2016-05-11 67.0 Neftchi Baku 2 1539 22.08% @ Kapaz 1 1598 50.92% 27.00%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-05-07 32.9 Kapaz 3 1578 63.50% @ Khazar Lankaran 0 1279 11.87% 24.62%
2 2016-04-15 33.1 @ Gabala 2 1578 69.81% Ravan Baku 0 1300 7.84% 22.35%
3 2016-03-13 34.9 @ Kapaz 2 1582 67.84% Khazar Lankaran 0 1333 9.00% 23.16%
4 2015-10-24 35.0 @ Inter Baku 2 1634 72.12% Ravan Baku 0 1319 6.59% 21.30%
5 2016-05-07 35.6 Inter Baku 4 1610 63.18% @ Ravan Baku 0 1315 12.10% 24.72%
6 2016-04-30 36.0 @ AZAL 1 1544 68.60% Khazar Lankaran 0 1284 8.54% 22.86%
7 2016-04-10 36.4 Zira 4 1639 64.76% @ Ravan Baku 0 1323 11.00% 24.24%
8 2016-02-06 37.8 @ Qarabag 3 1711 73.55% Khazar Lankaran 0 1372 5.87% 20.58%
9 2016-04-17 38.1 @ Zira 1 1663 75.15% Khazar Lankaran 0 1294 5.13% 19.72%
10 2016-02-27 38.5 @ AZAL 1 1488 60.09% Ravan Baku 0 1338 14.40% 25.51%
11 2015-12-20 38.6 @ Inter Baku 2 1629 67.56% Khazar Lankaran 0 1384 9.17% 23.26%
12 2016-05-11 38.8 @ Sumgayit 3 1439 60.13% Ravan Baku 1 1289 14.37% 25.50%
13 2016-04-23 39.0 Gabala 1 1586 63.15% @ Khazar Lankaran 0 1291 12.12% 24.72%
14 2016-02-21 39.1 Zira 2 1600 58.76% @ Khazar Lankaran 0 1356 15.44% 25.80%
15 2016-03-30 39.1 @ Qarabag 5 1793 81.41% Ravan Baku 1 1295 2.77% 15.82%
16 2015-10-16 39.6 Kapaz 2 1435 40.30% @ Ravan Baku 0 1350 32.04% 27.66%
17 2015-12-15 39.7 Inter Baku 2 1612 59.12% @ Ravan Baku 0 1364 15.15% 25.72%
18 2015-10-02 39.9 @ AZAL 1 1445 53.72% Ravan Baku 0 1362 19.62% 26.66%
19 2016-04-10 39.9 Neftchi Baku 1 1501 53.90% @ Khazar Lankaran 0 1306 19.47% 26.64%
20 2015-09-25 40.0 Gabala 3 1662 61.78% @ Ravan Baku 0 1383 13.12% 25.10%
21 2015-11-02 40.5 Khazar Lankaran 1 1463 49.38% @ Ravan Baku 0 1308 23.47% 27.15%
22 2016-02-13 40.5 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1583 65.85% Khazar Lankaran 0 1362 10.27% 23.88%
23 2016-03-13 40.8 @ Inter Baku 3 1627 72.00% Ravan Baku 1 1314 6.65% 21.36%
24 2016-03-20 41.3 Inter Baku 1 1634 64.38% @ Khazar Lankaran 0 1323 11.26% 24.36%
25 2015-10-28 42.2 Qarabag 1 1728 71.63% @ Ravan Baku 0 1312 6.84% 21.53%