Home / Leagues / Azerbaijan / Azerbaijan Premier League / 2014-15
‹ ›

2014-15 Azerbaijan Premier League Season

144 games

Final

Champion

Qarabag

68 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 2013-14

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Gabala

10.38 points above expected

54 points · 43.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Baku

11.93 points below expected

17 points · 28.93 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Qarabag Champion 32 20 8 4 68 51 28 +23 59.22 +8.78
2 Inter Baku 32 17 12 3 63 55 20 +35 60.75 +2.25
3 Gabala 32 15 9 8 54 46 35 +11 43.62 +10.38
4 Neftchi Baku 32 13 10 9 49 38 33 +5 47.76 +1.24
5 Simurq Zaqatala 32 11 6 15 39 41 39 +2 43.99 -4.99
6 AZAL 32 10 9 13 39 37 42 -5 34.41 +4.59
7 Khazar Lankaran 32 8 8 16 32 35 46 -11 40.44 -8.44
8 Sumgayit 32 7 10 15 31 32 43 -11 34.08 -3.08
9 Baku 32 3 8 21 17 19 68 -49 28.93 -11.93

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Gabala 54 43.62 +10.38
2 Qarabag 68 59.22 +8.78
3 AZAL 39 34.41 +4.59
4 Inter Baku 63 60.75 +2.25
5 Neftchi Baku 49 47.76 +1.24

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Baku 17 28.93 -11.93
2 Khazar Lankaran 32 40.44 -8.44
3 Simurq Zaqatala 39 43.99 -4.99
4 Sumgayit 31 34.08 -3.08
5 Neftchi Baku 49 47.76 +1.24

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gabala 8 Feb 19 – Apr 25 1 in 17,027
2 Qarabag 6 Dec 18 – Feb 19 1 in 38
3 Sumgayit 2 Aug 10 – Aug 16 1 in 19
4 AZAL 2 Jan 31 – Feb 6 1 in 18
5 Neftchi Baku 3 Aug 16 – Sep 13 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sumgayit 5 Sep 20 – Oct 29 1 in 156
2 Simurq Zaqatala 5 Apr 5 – May 1 1 in 124
3 Gabala 3 Feb 6 – Feb 15 1 in 26
4 Khazar Lankaran 4 Feb 1 – Feb 19 1 in 24
5 Baku 5 Feb 15 – Apr 1 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gabala 12 Feb 19 – May 28 1 in 240
2 Inter Baku 18 Sep 19 – Mar 8 1 in 44
3 Qarabag 12 Aug 16 – Dec 7 1 in 27
4 Sumgayit 4 Jan 30 – Feb 19 1 in 17
5 AZAL 4 Dec 17 – Feb 6 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Neftchi Baku 7 Apr 9 – May 28 1 in 59
2 Baku 19 Oct 29 – Apr 17 1 in 54
3 Sumgayit 13 Dec 14 – Apr 17 1 in 46
4 Inter Baku 5 Sep 27 – Nov 2 1 in 35
5 Khazar Lankaran 7 Dec 14 – Feb 19 1 in 19

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Qarabag 1667 68 -5 8 9.0 -1.0
Inter Baku 1673 63 +3 10 9.3 +0.7
Gabala 1612 54 +29 11 8.6 +2.4
Neftchi Baku 1505 49 -34 3 7.3 -4.3
AZAL 1461 39 +64 7 5.3 +1.7
Simurq Zaqatala 1432 39 -66 4 7.5 -3.5
Khazar Lankaran 1390 32 -23 5 6.7 -1.7
Sumgayit 1418 31 +42 7 3.8 +3.2
Baku 1246 17 -23 4 3.8 +0.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AZA BAK GAB IB KL NB QAR SZ SUM
AZAL —
3-0-1
6.43
2-1-1
4.27
0-2-2
2.63
1-2-1
5.00
1-1-2
3.91
0-0-4
3.00
1-1-2
4.29
2-2-0
5.42
Baku
1-0-3
4.44
 —
0-1-3
3.87
0-0-4
2.28
1-1-2
3.80
0-1-3
3.41
0-2-2
2.46
1-0-3
3.31
0-3-1
4.73
Gabala
1-1-2
6.58
3-1-0
7.11
 —
1-2-1
3.69
2-1-1
6.12
1-2-1
4.73
2-1-1
3.48
2-0-2
5.27
3-1-0
6.97
Inter Baku
2-2-0
8.39
4-0-0
8.80
1-2-1
7.21
 —
3-0-1
7.68
3-1-0
6.92
1-3-0
5.64
2-2-0
7.60
1-2-1
8.36
Khazar Lankaran
1-2-1
5.85
2-1-1
7.07
1-1-2
4.73
1-0-3
3.26
 —
0-2-2
4.25
0-1-3
3.10
1-1-2
5.14
2-0-2
6.12
Neftchi Baku
2-1-1
6.96
3-1-0
7.55
1-2-1
6.12
0-1-3
3.96
2-2-0
6.61
 —
0-1-3
4.08
2-1-1
5.78
3-1-0
7.23
Qarabag
4-0-0
7.99
2-2-0
8.60
1-1-2
7.45
0-3-1
5.19
3-1-0
7.85
3-1-0
6.80
 —
4-0-0
7.15
3-0-1
8.54
Simurq Zaqatala
2-1-1
6.57
3-0-1
7.63
2-0-2
5.58
0-2-2
3.31
2-1-1
5.70
1-1-2
5.05
0-0-4
3.73
 —
1-1-2
6.92
Sumgayit
0-2-2
5.43
1-3-0
6.13
0-1-3
3.90
1-2-1
2.64
2-0-2
4.72
0-1-3
3.68
1-0-3
2.51
2-1-1
3.95
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.90 +14.5
Allowed 0.85 -11.2
Differential 0.89 +6.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.81%9.38%6.60%1.74%2.43%0.69%32.64%
19.38%11.81%6.94%3.47%0.35%0.35%32.29%
26.60%6.94%3.47%3.47%0.35%0.35%21.18%
31.74%3.47%3.47%0.69%——9.38%
42.43%0.35%0.35%———3.12%
5+0.69%0.35%0.35%———1.39%
Total32.64%32.29%21.18%9.38%3.12%1.39%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.23 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.20 1.76
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 144

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%18.75%6.25%3.12%6.25%—37.50%
16.25%18.75%6.25%———31.25%
26.25%6.25%3.12%———15.62%
3—6.25%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
4———————
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total18.75%50.00%18.75%6.25%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.31 -0.16
SD 1.25 1.06 1.82
CV 1.08 0.81 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%15.62%6.25%9.38%3.12%53.12%
16.25%9.38%9.38%6.25%3.12%—34.38%
2—3.12%3.12%—3.12%3.12%12.50%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%18.75%28.12%12.50%15.62%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.59 2.12 -1.53
SD 0.71 1.68 1.78
CV 1.20 0.79 —
Max 2 7 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%3.12%6.25%3.12%3.12%—21.88%
19.38%18.75%3.12%3.12%——34.38%
212.50%9.38%—3.12%——25.00%
33.12%9.38%—3.12%——15.62%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total34.38%40.62%9.38%12.50%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.09 +0.34
SD 1.11 1.12 1.75
CV 0.77 1.02 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.88%3.12%————25.00%
16.25%15.62%3.12%3.12%——28.12%
29.38%15.62%————25.00%
3—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
49.38%—————9.38%
5+3.12%3.12%————6.25%
Total50.00%40.62%6.25%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.62 +1.09
SD 1.67 0.75 1.84
CV 0.97 1.20 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%15.62%———34.38%
16.25%12.50%6.25%9.38%——34.38%
2—9.38%6.25%6.25%——21.88%
33.12%—3.12%———6.25%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total18.75%34.38%31.25%15.62%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.44 -0.34
SD 1.06 0.98 1.47
CV 0.97 0.68 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%6.25%3.12%—3.12%—31.25%
118.75%3.12%6.25%6.25%——34.38%
26.25%3.12%9.38%3.12%——21.88%
3—6.25%3.12%———9.38%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total46.88%18.75%21.88%9.38%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.03 +0.16
SD 1.09 1.18 1.53
CV 0.92 1.14 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%3.12%—3.12%——18.75%
118.75%9.38%6.25%———34.38%
29.38%9.38%3.12%———21.88%
33.12%3.12%12.50%———18.75%
4—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
5+———————
Total43.75%28.12%25.00%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 0.88 +0.72
SD 1.19 0.91 1.22
CV 0.75 1.04 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%18.75%3.12%——3.12%34.38%
16.25%6.25%15.62%———28.12%
212.50%—3.12%6.25%——21.88%
33.12%—6.25%———9.38%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total34.38%25.00%31.25%6.25%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.22 +0.06
SD 1.30 1.18 1.76
CV 1.02 0.97 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%12.50%9.38%———37.50%
16.25%12.50%6.25%3.12%—3.12%31.25%
23.12%6.25%3.12%12.50%——25.00%
33.12%3.12%————6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.12%34.38%18.75%15.62%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.34 -0.34
SD 0.95 1.23 1.38
CV 0.95 0.92 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Inter Baku 1673 63 60.75 +2.25 68.0% 43 49 57 61 65 71 73
Qarabag 1667 68 59.22 +8.78 81.0% 40 47 52 59 66 72 74
Gabala 1612 54 43.62 +10.38 99.0% 30 32 41 43 48 51 56
Neftchi Baku 1505 49 47.76 +1.24 65.0% 34 37 43 47 53 60 63
AZAL 1461 39 34.41 +4.59 77.0% 20 21 31 35 39 45 50
Simurq Zaqatala 1432 39 43.99 -4.99 23.0% 22 34 40 43 47 56 61
Sumgayit 1418 31 34.08 -3.08 40.0% 17 24 29 34 38 45 55
Khazar Lankaran 1390 32 40.44 -8.44 11.0% 19 30 36 40 46 51 59
Baku 1246 17 28.93 -11.93 3.0% 16 18 24 29 33 39 45

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7.5% * Slight Edge: 7.5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.67%
Clear Edge
44.44%27.78%27.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge
183 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
058.45500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.44 goals
Neutral
-2+0.32+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.34 * Runaway: 0.34 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
42%
Qarabag, 2nd of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.16/gm
Tight Race
00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.42 * Some Luck: 5.42 to 8.13 * Lucky: 8.13 to 10.84 * Wild Swing: 10.84 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.87 * Close: 0.87 to 1.3 * Off: 1.3 to 1.73 * Way Off: 1.73 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.15 points
Some Luck
06.7717
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.89
Close
01.082.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
99.00%
Gabala
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
3.00%
Baku
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.21 * Even: 0.21 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.15 * Moderate Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Strong Separation: 2.3 to 2.6 * Wide Separation: 2.6 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 73.5% * Slight Edge: 73.5% to 77.5% * Clear Edge: 77.5% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92% * Clear Edge: 92% to 97% * Strong Edge: 97% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59% * Some Drama: 59% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 67% * Very Frequent: 67% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14% * Occasional: 14% to 17.5% * Frequent: 17.5% to 21.5% * Very Frequent: 21.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Balanced
00.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 140.97
2.24
Moderate Separation
12.152.63.25
Interquartile Edge
75%
Slight Edge
50%73.5%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
92%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
67%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
12%
Rare
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Very Even
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.22
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.72
Strong Carryover
00.470.651
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Shaky Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.75
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.23
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.067
Well Within Noise
00.1420.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Qarabag42.00%34.00%16.00%7.00%1.00%————
Inter Baku53.00%37.00%8.00%1.00%1.00%————
Gabala—4.00%20.00%28.00%23.00%10.00%9.00%6.00%—
Neftchi Baku4.00%13.00%28.00%24.00%12.00%12.00%6.00%1.00%—
Simurq Zaqatala1.00%6.00%18.00%18.00%25.00%20.00%6.00%2.00%4.00%
AZAL——3.00%4.00%9.00%17.00%24.00%27.00%16.00%
Khazar Lankaran—6.00%6.00%13.00%21.00%22.00%12.00%15.00%5.00%
Sumgayit——1.00%5.00%8.00%10.00%27.00%27.00%22.00%
Baku—————9.00%16.00%22.00%53.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
AZAL 100%
Baku 100%
Gabala 100%
Inter Baku 100%
Khazar Lankaran 100%
Neftchi Baku 100%
Qarabag 100%
Simurq Zaqatala 100%
Sumgayit 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2014-08-09 Khazar Lankaran D 1-158.3 1430 1468 38.55% 29.41% 32.04%+0.11 -0.4 1
2014-08-09 @ AZAL D 1-158.3 1468 1430 32.04% 29.41% 38.55%-0.11 +0.4 1
2014-08-10 Gabala W 4-043.8 1551 1496 50.56% 28.17% 21.27%+0.62 +29.9 3
2014-08-10 @ Inter Baku L 0-443.8 1496 1551 21.27% 28.17% 50.56%-0.62 -29.9 0
2014-08-10 Qarabag W 3-050.8 1407 1585 21.24% 28.17% 50.59%-0.65 +44.6 3
2014-08-10 @ Sumgayit L 0-350.8 1585 1407 50.59% 28.17% 21.24%+0.65 -44.6 0
2014-08-16 Baku W 1-048.8 1491 1493 43.51% 29.12% 27.37%+0.31 +10.2 3
2014-08-16 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-148.8 1493 1491 27.37% 29.12% 43.51%-0.31 -10.2 0
2014-08-16 Inter Baku D 0-061.2 1540 1581 38.27% 29.42% 32.31%+0.10 -0.4 1
2014-08-16 @ Qarabag D 0-061.2 1581 1540 32.31% 29.42% 38.27%-0.10 +0.4 4
2014-08-16 Sumgayit L 0-152.0 1469 1452 45.94% 28.87% 25.19%+0.41 -15.1 1
2014-08-16 @ Khazar Lankaran W 1-052.0 1452 1469 25.19% 28.87% 45.94%-0.41 +15.0 6
2014-08-17 AZAL W 2-040.9 1484 1430 50.49% 28.19% 21.32%+0.62 +15.8 3
2014-08-17 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 0-240.9 1430 1484 21.32% 28.19% 50.49%-0.62 -15.8 1
2014-08-23 Gabala L 0-249.7 1483 1466 45.88% 28.87% 25.24%+0.41 -28.3 0
2014-08-23 @ Baku W 2-049.7 1466 1483 25.24% 28.87% 45.88%-0.41 +28.4 3
2014-08-24 Khazar Lankaran W 2-042.6 1500 1454 49.51% 28.36% 22.13%+0.57 +16.3 6
2014-08-24 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 0-242.6 1454 1500 22.13% 28.36% 49.51%-0.57 -16.3 1
2014-08-24 Sumgayit W 5-145.4 1581 1467 57.10% 26.62% 16.27%+0.94 +19.6 7
2014-08-24 @ Inter Baku L 1-545.4 1467 1581 16.27% 26.62% 57.10%-0.94 -19.6 6
2014-08-29 Inter Baku W 1-057.0 1437 1601 22.68% 28.47% 48.85%-0.57 +15.8 4
2014-08-29 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-157.0 1601 1437 48.85% 28.47% 22.68%+0.57 -15.8 7
2014-08-30 AZAL L 1-259.3 1494 1414 53.51% 27.56% 18.93%+0.76 -16.1 3
2014-08-30 @ Gabala W 2-159.3 1414 1494 18.93% 27.56% 53.51%-0.76 +16.1 4
2014-08-31 Baku D 2-268.1 1540 1454 54.07% 27.43% 18.50%+0.79 -1.9 2
2014-08-31 @ Qarabag D 2-268.1 1454 1540 18.50% 27.43% 54.07%-0.79 +1.9 1
2014-08-31 Simurq Zaqatala W 2-156.4 1501 1516 41.80% 29.25% 28.95%+0.24 +10.1 6
2014-08-31 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-256.4 1516 1501 28.95% 29.25% 41.80%-0.24 -10.1 6
2014-09-13 Gabala L 1-260.5 1506 1478 47.26% 28.70% 24.04%+0.47 -14.5 6
2014-09-13 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 2-160.5 1478 1506 24.04% 28.70% 47.26%-0.47 +14.5 6
2014-09-13 Khazar Lankaran W 1-045.8 1511 1453 50.95% 28.10% 20.95%+0.64 +8.2 9
2014-09-13 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-145.8 1453 1511 20.95% 28.10% 50.95%-0.64 -8.2 4
2014-09-13 Qarabag L 0-343.7 1430 1538 28.98% 29.25% 41.77%-0.27 -29.2 4
2014-09-13 @ AZAL W 3-043.7 1538 1430 41.77% 29.25% 28.98%+0.27 +29.2 5
2014-09-14 Sumgayit L 1-257.0 1456 1447 44.90% 28.98% 26.11%+0.37 -13.9 1
2014-09-14 @ Baku W 2-157.0 1447 1456 26.11% 28.98% 44.90%-0.37 +13.9 9
2014-09-19 Baku W 7-042.1 1585 1442 59.95% 25.71% 14.34%+1.10 +35.3 10
2014-09-19 @ Inter Baku L 0-742.1 1442 1585 14.34% 25.71% 59.95%-1.10 -35.3 1
2014-09-20 AZAL L 0-151.5 1461 1401 51.22% 28.05% 20.73%+0.65 -16.5 9
2014-09-20 @ Sumgayit W 1-051.5 1401 1461 20.73% 28.05% 51.22%-0.65 +16.5 7
2014-09-21 Neftchi Baku D 0-057.5 1493 1519 40.16% 29.35% 30.50%+0.17 -0.7 7
2014-09-21 @ Gabala D 0-057.5 1519 1493 30.50% 29.35% 40.16%-0.17 +0.7 10
2014-09-21 Simurq Zaqatala W 1-048.7 1567 1491 52.99% 27.68% 19.33%+0.73 +7.7 8
2014-09-21 @ Qarabag L 0-148.7 1491 1567 19.33% 27.68% 52.99%-0.73 -7.7 6
2014-09-27 Qarabag L 1-358.1 1520 1575 36.23% 29.46% 34.31%+0.02 -20.5 10
2014-09-27 @ Neftchi Baku W 3-158.1 1575 1520 34.31% 29.46% 36.23%-0.02 +20.5 11
2014-09-27 Inter Baku D 1-163.9 1417 1620 18.97% 27.58% 53.45%-0.79 +2.5 8
2014-09-27 @ AZAL D 1-163.9 1620 1417 53.45% 27.58% 18.97%+0.79 -2.5 11
2014-09-28 Khazar Lankaran D 1-160.0 1492 1445 49.66% 28.33% 22.01%+0.58 -1.9 8
2014-09-28 @ Gabala D 1-160.0 1445 1492 22.01% 28.33% 49.66%-0.58 +1.9 5
2014-09-28 Sumgayit W 3-255.9 1484 1445 48.67% 28.49% 22.84%+0.53 +7.9 9
2014-09-28 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 2-355.9 1445 1484 22.84% 28.49% 48.67%-0.53 -7.9 9
2014-10-02 Simurq Zaqatala W 1-049.2 1407 1491 32.02% 29.41% 38.57%-0.14 +13.1 4
2014-10-02 @ Baku L 0-149.2 1491 1407 38.57% 29.41% 32.02%+0.14 -13.1 9
2014-10-17 Gabala W 2-045.4 1595 1490 56.17% 26.89% 16.94%+0.89 +12.9 14
2014-10-17 @ Qarabag L 0-245.4 1490 1595 16.94% 26.89% 56.17%-0.89 -12.9 8
2014-10-17 Neftchi Baku L 0-149.4 1437 1500 35.04% 29.46% 35.49%-0.02 -12.3 9
2014-10-17 @ Sumgayit W 1-049.4 1500 1437 35.49% 29.46% 35.04%+0.02 +12.3 13
2014-10-18 Simurq Zaqatala D 0-061.5 1618 1478 59.62% 25.83% 14.55%+1.08 -3.7 12
2014-10-18 @ Inter Baku D 0-061.5 1478 1618 14.55% 25.83% 59.62%-1.08 +3.7 10
2014-10-19 Baku W 4-038.5 1447 1420 47.19% 28.71% 24.10%+0.47 +33.1 8
2014-10-19 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-438.5 1420 1447 24.10% 28.71% 47.19%-0.47 -33.1 4
2014-10-24 Sumgayit W 3-146.4 1477 1424 50.34% 28.21% 21.45%+0.61 +13.7 11
2014-10-24 @ Gabala L 1-346.4 1424 1477 21.45% 28.21% 50.34%-0.61 -13.7 9
2014-10-25 Baku L 0-149.2 1420 1387 47.92% 28.61% 23.47%+0.50 -15.6 8
2014-10-25 @ AZAL W 1-049.2 1387 1420 23.47% 28.61% 47.92%-0.50 +15.6 7
2014-10-26 Khazar Lankaran W 3-258.8 1608 1480 58.53% 26.19% 15.28%+1.02 +5.5 17
2014-10-26 @ Qarabag L 2-358.8 1480 1608 15.28% 26.19% 58.53%-1.02 -5.5 8
2014-10-26 Inter Baku D 0-061.4 1512 1614 29.74% 29.30% 40.96%-0.24 +0.8 14
2014-10-26 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-061.4 1614 1512 40.96% 29.30% 29.74%+0.24 -0.8 13
2014-10-29 Khazar Lankaran L 1-253.5 1411 1474 34.93% 29.46% 35.61%-0.03 -11.5 9
2014-10-29 @ Sumgayit W 2-153.5 1474 1411 35.61% 29.46% 34.93%+0.03 +11.5 11
2014-10-29 Neftchi Baku L 1-349.3 1402 1513 28.68% 29.23% 42.09%-0.28 -17.3 7
2014-10-29 @ Baku W 3-149.3 1513 1402 42.09% 29.23% 28.68%+0.28 +17.3 17
2014-10-29 Qarabag D 0-064.0 1613 1614 43.65% 29.10% 27.25%+0.32 -1.2 14
2014-10-29 @ Inter Baku D 0-064.0 1614 1613 27.25% 29.10% 43.65%-0.32 +1.2 18
2014-10-29 Simurq Zaqatala D 2-263.7 1404 1482 32.93% 29.44% 37.63%-0.11 +0.2 9
2014-10-29 @ AZAL D 2-263.7 1482 1404 37.63% 29.44% 32.93%+0.11 -0.2 11
2014-11-02 Baku D 1-158.4 1491 1385 56.24% 26.87% 16.89%+0.90 -2.8 12
2014-11-02 @ Gabala D 1-158.4 1385 1491 16.89% 26.87% 56.24%-0.90 +2.8 8
2014-11-02 Inter Baku D 0-058.0 1399 1612 18.15% 27.32% 54.53%-0.84 +2.9 10
2014-11-02 @ Sumgayit D 0-058.0 1612 1399 54.53% 27.32% 18.15%+0.84 -2.9 15
2014-11-02 AZAL W 4-037.3 1530 1404 58.29% 26.26% 15.45%+1.01 +22.4 20
2014-11-02 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-437.3 1404 1530 15.45% 26.26% 58.29%-1.01 -22.4 9
2014-11-02 Simurq Zaqatala W 2-153.8 1486 1482 44.30% 29.04% 26.65%+0.34 +9.5 14
2014-11-02 @ Khazar Lankaran L 1-253.8 1482 1486 26.65% 29.04% 44.30%-0.34 -9.5 11
2014-11-20 Gabala D 3-366.8 1382 1488 29.18% 29.27% 41.55%-0.26 +0.5 10
2014-11-20 @ AZAL D 3-366.8 1488 1382 41.55% 29.27% 29.18%+0.26 -0.5 13
2014-11-20 Khazar Lankaran W 3-151.6 1609 1495 57.03% 26.65% 16.33%+0.94 +10.8 18
2014-11-20 @ Inter Baku L 1-351.6 1495 1609 16.33% 26.65% 57.03%-0.94 -10.8 14
2014-11-20 Neftchi Baku W 1-053.6 1472 1552 32.63% 29.43% 37.94%-0.12 +13.0 14
2014-11-20 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 0-153.6 1552 1472 37.94% 29.43% 32.63%+0.12 -13.0 20
2014-11-20 Qarabag L 2-451.8 1388 1615 17.01% 26.92% 56.07%-0.92 -10.0 8
2014-11-20 @ Baku W 4-251.8 1615 1388 56.07% 26.92% 17.01%+0.92 +10.0 21
2014-11-23 AZAL W 2-147.9 1625 1382 68.78% 21.95% 9.27%+1.65 +3.5 24
2014-11-23 @ Qarabag L 1-247.9 1382 1625 9.27% 21.95% 68.78%-1.65 -3.5 10
2014-11-23 Simurq Zaqatala L 2-364.1 1488 1485 44.06% 29.07% 26.88%+0.33 -13.0 13
2014-11-23 @ Gabala W 3-264.1 1485 1488 26.88% 29.07% 44.06%-0.33 +13.0 17
2014-11-24 Baku D 1-155.4 1402 1378 46.85% 28.75% 24.40%+0.45 -1.5 11
2014-11-24 @ Sumgayit D 1-155.4 1378 1402 24.40% 28.75% 46.85%-0.45 +1.5 9
2014-11-24 Neftchi Baku D 2-268.6 1485 1539 36.21% 29.46% 34.33%+0.02 -0.1 15
2014-11-24 @ Khazar Lankaran D 2-268.6 1539 1485 34.33% 29.46% 36.21%-0.02 +0.1 21
2014-11-29 Gabala D 0-058.0 1540 1475 51.75% 27.95% 20.31%+0.67 -2.5 22
2014-11-29 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-058.0 1475 1540 20.31% 27.95% 51.75%-0.67 +2.5 14
2014-11-29 Inter Baku L 0-145.2 1380 1620 16.04% 26.53% 57.43%-0.99 -6.5 9
2014-11-29 @ Baku W 1-045.2 1620 1380 57.43% 26.53% 16.04%+0.99 +6.5 21
2014-11-29 Sumgayit W 3-254.1 1379 1401 40.85% 29.31% 29.84%+0.20 +9.8 13
2014-11-29 @ AZAL L 2-354.1 1401 1379 29.84% 29.31% 40.85%-0.20 -9.8 11
2014-11-30 Qarabag L 2-364.2 1498 1628 26.29% 29.00% 44.71%-0.39 -8.9 17
2014-11-30 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 3-264.2 1628 1498 44.71% 29.00% 26.29%+0.39 +8.9 27
2014-12-07 Gabala W 3-042.6 1485 1477 44.72% 29.00% 26.28%+0.36 +27.2 18
2014-12-07 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-342.6 1477 1485 26.28% 29.00% 44.72%-0.36 -27.1 14
2014-12-07 Neftchi Baku D 0-063.4 1637 1537 55.65% 27.03% 17.32%+0.87 -3.1 28
2014-12-07 @ Qarabag D 0-063.4 1537 1637 17.32% 27.03% 55.65%-0.87 +3.1 23
2014-12-07 AZAL W 1-042.5 1626 1389 68.36% 22.16% 9.48%+1.62 +3.7 24
2014-12-07 @ Inter Baku L 0-142.5 1389 1626 9.48% 22.16% 68.36%-1.62 -3.7 13
2014-12-07 Simurq Zaqatala W 2-155.0 1391 1489 30.16% 29.33% 40.52%-0.22 +12.9 14
2014-12-07 @ Sumgayit L 1-255.0 1489 1391 40.52% 29.33% 30.16%+0.22 -12.9 17
2014-12-13 Inter Baku D 1-166.0 1477 1630 23.71% 28.65% 47.64%-0.52 +1.6 18
2014-12-13 @ Simurq Zaqatala D 1-166.0 1630 1477 47.64% 28.65% 23.71%+0.52 -1.6 25
2014-12-14 Khazar Lankaran D 0-053.1 1373 1512 25.30% 28.88% 45.82%-0.44 +1.6 10
2014-12-14 @ Baku D 0-053.1 1512 1373 45.82% 28.88% 25.30%+0.44 -1.6 19
2014-12-14 Qarabag W 2-165.1 1450 1634 20.63% 28.02% 51.35%-0.69 +15.6 17
2014-12-14 @ Gabala L 1-265.1 1634 1450 51.35% 28.02% 20.63%+0.69 -15.6 28
2014-12-14 Sumgayit W 3-253.3 1540 1404 59.36% 25.92% 14.73%+1.07 +5.3 26
2014-12-14 @ Neftchi Baku L 2-353.3 1404 1540 14.73% 25.92% 59.36%-1.07 -5.3 14
2014-12-17 AZAL L 1-349.3 1375 1385 42.37% 29.21% 28.42%+0.26 -23.0 10
2014-12-17 @ Baku W 3-149.3 1385 1375 28.42% 29.21% 42.37%-0.26 +23.0 16
2014-12-18 Gabala D 1-157.2 1398 1466 34.43% 29.46% 36.11%-0.05 +0.1 15
2014-12-18 @ Sumgayit D 1-157.2 1466 1398 36.11% 29.46% 34.43%+0.05 -0.1 18
2014-12-18 Neftchi Baku W 2-157.9 1628 1546 53.75% 27.51% 18.74%+0.77 +7.1 28
2014-12-18 @ Inter Baku L 1-257.9 1546 1628 18.74% 27.51% 53.75%-0.77 -7.1 26
2014-12-18 Qarabag L 2-365.1 1510 1619 28.91% 29.25% 41.85%-0.27 -9.5 19
2014-12-18 @ Khazar Lankaran W 3-265.1 1619 1510 41.85% 29.25% 28.91%+0.27 +9.5 31
2014-12-21 Inter Baku D 1-165.9 1465 1635 22.01% 28.33% 49.66%-0.61 +1.9 19
2014-12-21 @ Gabala D 1-165.9 1635 1465 49.66% 28.33% 22.01%+0.61 -1.9 29
2014-12-21 AZAL D 1-159.3 1501 1408 54.83% 27.24% 17.92%+0.83 -2.6 20
2014-12-21 @ Khazar Lankaran D 1-159.3 1408 1501 17.92% 27.24% 54.83%-0.83 +2.7 17
2014-12-21 Sumgayit W 2-039.9 1628 1398 67.74% 22.47% 9.80%+1.58 +7.3 34
2014-12-21 @ Qarabag L 0-239.9 1398 1628 9.80% 22.47% 67.74%-1.58 -7.3 15
2014-12-22 Baku W 5-241.5 1478 1352 58.38% 26.23% 15.38%+1.01 +12.5 21
2014-12-22 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 2-541.5 1352 1478 15.38% 26.23% 58.38%-1.01 -12.5 10
2015-01-30 Sumgayit D 0-060.1 1633 1391 68.75% 21.96% 9.28%+1.64 -5.0 30
2015-01-30 @ Inter Baku D 0-060.1 1391 1633 9.28% 21.96% 68.75%-1.64 +5.0 16
2015-01-31 Neftchi Baku W 2-158.4 1411 1538 26.56% 29.03% 44.41%-0.38 +13.8 20
2015-01-31 @ AZAL L 1-258.4 1538 1411 44.41% 29.03% 26.56%+0.38 -13.8 26
2015-02-01 Gabala L 0-239.6 1339 1467 26.50% 29.03% 44.47%-0.38 -18.8 10
2015-02-01 @ Baku W 2-039.6 1467 1339 44.47% 29.03% 26.50%+0.38 +18.8 22
2015-02-01 Khazar Lankaran W 2-045.9 1491 1498 42.79% 29.18% 28.04%+0.28 +19.7 24
2015-02-01 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 0-245.9 1498 1491 28.04% 29.18% 42.79%-0.28 -19.7 20
2015-02-06 AZAL L 0-153.0 1486 1425 51.37% 28.02% 20.61%+0.66 -16.5 22
2015-02-06 @ Gabala W 1-053.0 1425 1486 20.61% 28.02% 51.37%-0.66 +16.5 23
2015-02-06 Simurq Zaqatala D 0-058.4 1525 1510 45.60% 28.91% 25.49%+0.40 -1.5 27
2015-02-06 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-058.4 1510 1525 25.49% 28.91% 45.60%-0.40 +1.5 25
2015-02-07 Baku W 4-138.4 1636 1320 74.27% 18.95% 6.77%+2.04 +5.8 37
2015-02-07 @ Qarabag L 1-438.4 1320 1636 6.77% 18.95% 74.27%-2.04 -5.8 10
2015-02-07 Inter Baku L 1-257.9 1478 1628 24.06% 28.70% 47.24%-0.50 -8.7 20
2015-02-07 @ Khazar Lankaran W 2-157.9 1628 1478 47.24% 28.70% 24.06%+0.50 +8.7 33
2015-02-10 Gabala W 2-043.8 1512 1470 49.07% 28.43% 22.50%+0.55 +16.5 28
2015-02-10 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 0-243.8 1470 1512 22.50% 28.43% 49.07%-0.55 -16.5 22
2015-02-11 Khazar Lankaran W 2-043.8 1523 1470 50.42% 28.20% 21.38%+0.61 +15.8 30
2015-02-11 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-243.8 1470 1523 21.38% 28.20% 50.42%-0.61 -15.8 20
2015-02-11 Qarabag L 0-149.5 1441 1641 19.18% 27.64% 53.18%-0.78 -7.6 23
2015-02-11 @ AZAL W 1-049.5 1641 1441 53.18% 27.64% 19.18%+0.78 +7.6 40
2015-02-11 Sumgayit D 0-049.0 1314 1396 32.42% 29.42% 38.16%-0.13 +0.4 11
2015-02-11 @ Baku D 0-049.0 1396 1314 38.16% 29.42% 32.42%+0.13 -0.4 17
2015-02-15 Baku W 4-033.0 1637 1315 74.77% 18.66% 6.57%+2.08 +8.7 36
2015-02-15 @ Inter Baku L 0-433.0 1315 1637 6.57% 18.66% 74.77%-2.08 -8.7 11
2015-02-15 Neftchi Baku L 1-353.1 1453 1539 31.86% 29.41% 38.73%-0.15 -18.7 22
2015-02-15 @ Gabala W 3-153.1 1539 1453 38.73% 29.41% 31.86%+0.15 +18.7 33
2015-02-15 AZAL D 0-051.3 1396 1433 38.63% 29.41% 31.96%+0.11 -0.5 18
2015-02-15 @ Sumgayit D 0-051.3 1433 1396 31.96% 29.41% 38.63%-0.11 +0.5 24
2015-02-15 Simurq Zaqatala W 1-050.9 1649 1528 57.76% 26.43% 15.81%+0.98 +6.4 43
2015-02-15 @ Qarabag L 0-150.9 1528 1649 15.81% 26.43% 57.76%-0.98 -6.4 28
2015-02-19 Khazar Lankaran W 3-148.7 1434 1454 41.16% 29.29% 29.55%+0.21 +17.7 25
2015-02-19 @ Gabala L 1-348.7 1454 1434 29.55% 29.29% 41.16%-0.21 -17.7 20
2015-02-19 Qarabag L 0-157.0 1558 1655 30.28% 29.33% 40.39%-0.21 -11.0 33
2015-02-19 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-057.0 1655 1558 40.39% 29.33% 30.28%+0.21 +11.0 46
2015-02-19 Inter Baku D 1-165.5 1434 1646 18.20% 27.34% 54.46%-0.84 +2.6 25
2015-02-19 @ AZAL D 1-165.5 1646 1434 54.46% 27.34% 18.20%+0.84 -2.6 37
2015-02-19 Sumgayit D 1-159.9 1522 1395 58.39% 26.23% 15.38%+1.01 -3.1 29
2015-02-19 @ Simurq Zaqatala D 1-159.9 1395 1522 15.38% 26.23% 58.39%-1.01 +3.1 19
2015-02-24 Neftchi Baku L 0-149.2 1436 1547 28.69% 29.23% 42.08%-0.28 -10.6 25
2015-02-24 @ AZAL W 1-049.2 1547 1436 42.08% 29.23% 28.69%+0.28 +10.6 36
2015-02-28 Baku W 2-143.2 1436 1306 58.71% 26.13% 15.16%+1.03 +5.8 23
2015-02-28 @ Khazar Lankaran L 1-243.2 1306 1436 15.16% 26.13% 58.71%-1.03 -5.8 11
2015-02-28 Gabala L 0-163.5 1666 1452 66.44% 23.08% 10.48%+1.49 -20.5 46
2015-02-28 @ Qarabag W 1-063.5 1452 1666 10.48% 23.08% 66.44%-1.49 +20.5 28
2015-02-28 Neftchi Baku L 0-146.3 1398 1557 23.12% 28.55% 48.33%-0.55 -8.9 19
2015-02-28 @ Sumgayit W 1-046.3 1557 1398 48.33% 28.55% 23.12%+0.55 +9.0 39
2015-02-28 Simurq Zaqatala W 2-156.3 1643 1519 58.14% 26.31% 15.55%+1.00 +5.9 40
2015-02-28 @ Inter Baku L 1-256.3 1519 1643 15.55% 26.31% 58.14%-1.00 -5.9 29
2015-03-08 Baku W 2-034.0 1426 1300 58.26% 26.27% 15.46%+1.01 +11.8 28
2015-03-08 @ AZAL L 0-234.0 1300 1426 15.46% 26.27% 58.26%-1.01 -11.8 11
2015-03-08 Khazar Lankaran W 1-045.9 1646 1442 65.57% 23.48% 10.95%+1.43 +4.4 49
2015-03-08 @ Qarabag L 0-145.9 1442 1646 10.95% 23.48% 65.57%-1.43 -4.4 23
2015-03-08 Inter Baku L 0-254.4 1566 1649 32.24% 29.42% 38.34%-0.13 -21.8 39
2015-03-08 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-054.4 1649 1566 38.34% 29.42% 32.24%+0.13 +21.8 43
2015-03-08 Sumgayit W 2-038.3 1473 1389 53.81% 27.50% 18.70%+0.77 +14.1 31
2015-03-08 @ Gabala L 0-238.3 1389 1473 18.70% 27.50% 53.81%-0.77 -14.1 19
2015-03-18 Gabala L 1-270.0 1671 1487 63.83% 24.23% 11.94%+1.33 -18.7 43
2015-03-18 @ Inter Baku W 2-170.0 1487 1671 11.94% 24.23% 63.83%-1.33 +18.7 34
2015-03-18 Khazar Lankaran W 3-147.5 1438 1438 43.77% 29.09% 27.14%+0.32 +16.6 31
2015-03-18 @ AZAL L 1-347.5 1438 1438 27.14% 29.09% 43.77%-0.32 -16.6 23
2015-03-18 Qarabag L 1-251.0 1375 1650 13.73% 25.38% 60.88%-1.18 -5.3 19
2015-03-18 @ Sumgayit W 2-151.0 1650 1375 60.88% 25.38% 13.73%+1.18 +5.2 52
2015-03-18 Simurq Zaqatala L 0-334.4 1289 1513 17.21% 26.99% 55.80%-0.91 -19.0 11
2015-03-18 @ Baku W 3-034.4 1513 1289 55.80% 26.99% 17.21%+0.91 +19.0 32
2015-04-01 Baku W 2-031.8 1544 1270 71.31% 20.62% 8.07%+1.82 +5.9 42
2015-04-01 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-231.8 1270 1544 8.07% 20.62% 71.31%-1.82 -5.9 11
2015-04-01 AZAL W 1-046.0 1532 1454 53.19% 27.64% 19.18%+0.74 +7.6 35
2015-04-01 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 0-146.0 1454 1532 19.18% 27.64% 53.19%-0.74 -7.6 31
2015-04-01 Sumgayit W 3-251.6 1421 1370 50.11% 28.26% 21.64%+0.60 +7.6 26
2015-04-01 @ Khazar Lankaran L 2-351.6 1370 1421 21.64% 28.26% 50.11%-0.60 -7.6 19
2015-04-02 Inter Baku D 0-065.3 1656 1652 44.19% 29.05% 26.75%+0.34 -1.3 53
2015-04-02 @ Qarabag D 0-065.3 1652 1656 26.75% 29.05% 44.19%-0.34 +1.3 44
2015-04-05 Gabala L 0-445.0 1447 1505 35.64% 29.46% 34.89%+0.00 -44.4 31
2015-04-05 @ AZAL W 4-045.0 1505 1447 34.89% 29.46% 35.64%+0.00 +44.4 37
2015-04-05 Khazar Lankaran W 2-042.0 1654 1429 67.35% 22.65% 10.00%+1.55 +7.5 47
2015-04-05 @ Inter Baku L 0-242.0 1429 1654 10.00% 22.65% 67.35%-1.55 -7.5 26
2015-04-05 Neftchi Baku L 0-157.1 1540 1550 42.33% 29.21% 28.46%+0.26 -14.1 35
2015-04-05 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 1-057.1 1550 1540 28.46% 29.21% 42.33%-0.26 +14.1 45
2015-04-05 Qarabag D 1-161.5 1264 1654 8.31% 20.91% 70.78%-1.82 +4.7 12
2015-04-05 @ Baku D 1-161.5 1654 1264 70.78% 20.91% 8.31%+1.82 -4.7 54
2015-04-09 Baku D 0-048.8 1362 1268 54.99% 27.20% 17.80%+0.83 -3.0 20
2015-04-09 @ Sumgayit D 0-048.8 1268 1362 17.80% 27.20% 54.99%-0.83 +3.0 13
2015-04-09 Neftchi Baku D 2-267.4 1421 1564 24.79% 28.81% 46.40%-0.46 +1.1 27
2015-04-09 @ Khazar Lankaran D 2-267.4 1564 1421 46.40% 28.81% 24.79%+0.46 -1.1 46
2015-04-09 AZAL W 2-149.4 1650 1402 69.17% 21.75% 9.08%+1.67 +3.4 57
2015-04-09 @ Qarabag L 1-249.4 1402 1650 9.08% 21.75% 69.17%-1.67 -3.4 31
2015-04-09 Simurq Zaqatala W 1-051.1 1550 1525 46.88% 28.75% 24.37%+0.45 +9.3 40
2015-04-09 @ Gabala L 0-151.1 1525 1550 24.37% 28.75% 46.88%-0.45 -9.3 35
2015-04-17 Gabala L 1-361.3 1563 1559 44.29% 29.05% 26.67%+0.34 -23.9 46
2015-04-17 @ Neftchi Baku W 3-161.3 1559 1563 26.67% 29.05% 44.29%-0.34 +23.9 43
2015-04-17 Qarabag L 0-251.1 1516 1653 25.51% 28.91% 45.58%-0.43 -18.3 35
2015-04-17 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 2-051.1 1653 1516 45.58% 28.91% 25.51%+0.43 +18.3 60
2015-04-17 Inter Baku L 1-244.6 1271 1661 8.35% 20.95% 70.70%-1.81 -3.0 13
2015-04-17 @ Baku W 2-144.6 1661 1271 70.70% 20.95% 8.35%+1.81 +3.0 50
2015-04-17 Sumgayit D 1-155.0 1399 1360 48.73% 28.49% 22.79%+0.53 -1.8 32
2015-04-17 @ AZAL D 1-155.0 1360 1399 22.79% 28.49% 48.73%-0.53 +1.8 21
2015-04-25 Gabala L 0-148.1 1422 1583 22.91% 28.51% 48.58%-0.56 -8.9 27
2015-04-25 @ Khazar Lankaran W 1-048.1 1583 1422 48.58% 28.51% 22.91%+0.56 +8.9 46
2015-04-25 Neftchi Baku W 3-262.1 1671 1539 58.89% 26.07% 15.04%+1.04 +5.5 63
2015-04-25 @ Qarabag L 2-362.1 1539 1671 15.04% 26.07% 58.89%-1.04 -5.5 46
2015-04-25 AZAL W 2-040.2 1664 1397 70.71% 20.95% 8.34%+1.78 +6.1 53
2015-04-25 @ Inter Baku L 0-240.2 1397 1664 8.34% 20.95% 70.71%-1.78 -6.1 32
2015-04-25 Simurq Zaqatala W 1-049.9 1361 1498 25.55% 28.91% 45.54%-0.43 +15.0 24
2015-04-25 @ Sumgayit L 0-149.9 1498 1361 45.54% 28.91% 25.55%+0.43 -14.9 35
2015-05-01 Inter Baku L 2-362.8 1483 1670 20.34% 27.95% 51.71%-0.70 -7.2 35
2015-05-01 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 3-262.8 1670 1483 51.71% 27.95% 20.34%+0.70 +7.2 56
2015-05-01 Sumgayit D 2-265.8 1534 1376 61.39% 25.20% 13.41%+1.18 -2.7 47
2015-05-01 @ Neftchi Baku D 2-265.8 1376 1534 13.41% 25.20% 61.39%-1.18 +2.7 25
2015-05-02 Khazar Lankaran W 2-152.6 1268 1413 24.61% 28.79% 46.60%-0.47 +14.4 16
2015-05-02 @ Baku L 1-252.6 1413 1268 46.60% 28.79% 24.61%+0.47 -14.4 27
2015-05-02 Qarabag D 1-169.6 1592 1677 32.00% 29.41% 38.59%-0.14 +0.4 47
2015-05-02 @ Gabala D 1-169.6 1677 1592 38.59% 29.41% 32.00%+0.14 -0.4 64
2015-05-08 Gabala L 0-241.7 1379 1592 18.08% 27.30% 54.62%-0.85 -13.7 25
2015-05-08 @ Sumgayit W 2-041.7 1592 1379 54.62% 27.30% 18.08%+0.85 +13.7 50
2015-05-08 Neftchi Baku W 4-045.7 1677 1531 60.29% 25.60% 14.11%+1.12 +20.5 59
2015-05-08 @ Inter Baku L 0-445.7 1531 1677 14.11% 25.60% 60.29%-1.12 -20.5 47
2015-05-08 Qarabag D 1-165.9 1399 1676 13.59% 25.30% 61.11%-1.20 +3.5 28
2015-05-08 @ Khazar Lankaran D 1-165.9 1676 1399 61.11% 25.30% 13.59%+1.20 -3.5 65
2015-05-09 AZAL L 0-238.2 1283 1391 28.93% 29.25% 41.83%-0.27 -20.1 16
2015-05-09 @ Baku W 2-038.2 1391 1283 41.83% 29.25% 28.93%+0.27 +20.1 35
2015-05-15 Baku W 4-029.8 1476 1263 66.35% 23.12% 10.53%+1.48 +15.1 38
2015-05-15 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 0-429.8 1263 1476 10.53% 23.12% 66.35%-1.48 -15.1 16
2015-05-16 Inter Baku D 1-170.1 1606 1698 31.05% 29.37% 39.58%-0.18 +0.6 51
2015-05-16 @ Gabala D 1-170.1 1698 1606 39.58% 29.37% 31.05%+0.18 -0.6 60
2015-05-16 AZAL W 1-043.6 1402 1411 42.60% 29.19% 28.21%+0.27 +10.5 31
2015-05-16 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-143.6 1411 1402 28.21% 29.19% 42.60%-0.27 -10.5 35
2015-05-16 Sumgayit W 1-041.7 1673 1365 73.72% 19.27% 7.01%+2.00 +2.6 68
2015-05-16 @ Qarabag L 0-141.7 1365 1673 7.01% 19.27% 73.72%-2.00 -2.6 25
2015-05-22 Khazar Lankaran W 2-041.3 1363 1413 36.86% 29.45% 33.69%+0.04 +22.5 28
2015-05-22 @ Sumgayit L 0-241.3 1413 1363 33.69% 29.45% 36.86%-0.04 -22.5 31
2015-05-22 Neftchi Baku D 0-050.9 1248 1511 14.47% 25.78% 59.75%-1.12 +3.7 17
2015-05-22 @ Baku D 0-050.9 1511 1248 59.75% 25.78% 14.47%+1.12 -3.7 48
2015-05-22 Qarabag W 2-163.1 1697 1675 46.57% 28.79% 24.64%+0.44 +8.9 63
2015-05-22 @ Inter Baku L 1-263.1 1675 1697 24.64% 28.79% 46.57%-0.44 -8.9 68
2015-05-22 Simurq Zaqatala W 5-044.6 1401 1491 31.28% 29.38% 39.34%-0.17 +58.8 38
2015-05-22 @ AZAL L 0-544.6 1491 1401 39.34% 29.38% 31.28%+0.17 -58.8 38
2015-05-28 Baku W 3-029.5 1607 1251 77.01% 17.30% 5.69%+2.26 +5.6 54
2015-05-28 @ Gabala L 0-329.5 1251 1607 5.69% 17.30% 77.01%-2.26 -5.6 17
2015-05-28 Inter Baku W 3-164.9 1385 1706 11.22% 23.70% 65.08%-1.44 +32.9 31
2015-05-28 @ Sumgayit L 1-364.9 1706 1385 65.08% 23.70% 11.22%+1.44 -32.9 63
2015-05-28 AZAL D 1-161.0 1507 1459 49.72% 28.32% 21.95%+0.58 -1.9 49
2015-05-28 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-161.0 1459 1507 21.95% 28.32% 49.72%-0.58 +1.9 39
2015-05-28 Simurq Zaqatala D 0-051.2 1390 1432 38.09% 29.43% 32.49%+0.09 -0.4 32
2015-05-28 @ Khazar Lankaran D 0-051.2 1432 1390 32.49% 29.43% 38.09%-0.09 +0.4 39

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2015-02-28 10.48% Gabala 1452 1 @ Qarabag 1666 0
2 2015-05-28 11.22% @ Sumgayit 1385 3 Inter Baku 1706 1
3 2015-03-18 11.94% Gabala 1487 2 @ Inter Baku 1671 1
4 2014-08-30 18.93% AZAL 1414 2 @ Gabala 1494 1
5 2015-02-06 20.61% AZAL 1425 1 @ Gabala 1486 0
6 2014-12-14 20.63% @ Gabala 1450 2 Qarabag 1634 1
7 2014-09-20 20.73% AZAL 1401 1 @ Sumgayit 1461 0
8 2014-08-10 21.24% @ Sumgayit 1407 3 Qarabag 1585 0
9 2014-08-29 22.68% @ Khazar Lankaran 1437 1 Inter Baku 1601 0
10 2014-10-25 23.47% Baku 1387 1 @ AZAL 1420 0
11 2014-09-13 24.04% Gabala 1478 2 @ Simurq Zaqatala 1506 1
12 2015-05-02 24.61% @ Baku 1268 2 Khazar Lankaran 1413 1
13 2014-08-16 25.19% Sumgayit 1452 1 @ Khazar Lankaran 1469 0
14 2014-08-23 25.24% Gabala 1466 2 @ Baku 1483 0
15 2015-04-25 25.55% @ Sumgayit 1361 1 Simurq Zaqatala 1498 0
16 2014-09-14 26.11% Sumgayit 1447 2 @ Baku 1456 1
17 2015-01-31 26.56% @ AZAL 1411 2 Neftchi Baku 1538 1
18 2015-04-17 26.67% Gabala 1559 3 @ Neftchi Baku 1563 1
19 2014-11-23 26.88% Simurq Zaqatala 1485 3 @ Gabala 1488 2
20 2014-12-17 28.42% AZAL 1385 3 @ Baku 1375 1
21 2015-04-05 28.46% Neftchi Baku 1550 1 @ Simurq Zaqatala 1540 0
22 2014-12-07 30.16% @ Sumgayit 1391 2 Simurq Zaqatala 1489 1
23 2015-05-22 31.28% @ AZAL 1401 5 Simurq Zaqatala 1491 0
24 2014-10-02 32.02% @ Baku 1407 1 Simurq Zaqatala 1491 0
25 2014-11-20 32.63% @ Simurq Zaqatala 1472 1 Neftchi Baku 1552 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-05-22 58.82 @ AZAL 5 1401 31.28% Simurq Zaqatala 0 1491 39.34% 29.38%
2 2014-08-10 44.64 @ Sumgayit 3 1407 21.24% Qarabag 0 1585 50.59% 28.17%
3 2015-04-05 44.41 Gabala 4 1505 34.89% @ AZAL 0 1447 35.64% 29.46%
4 2014-09-19 35.28 @ Inter Baku 7 1585 59.95% Baku 0 1442 14.34% 25.71%
5 2014-10-19 33.11 @ Khazar Lankaran 4 1447 47.19% Baku 0 1420 24.10% 28.71%
6 2015-05-28 32.88 @ Sumgayit 3 1385 11.22% Inter Baku 1 1706 65.08% 23.70%
7 2014-08-10 29.88 @ Inter Baku 4 1551 50.56% Gabala 0 1496 21.27% 28.17%
8 2014-09-13 29.25 Qarabag 3 1538 41.77% @ AZAL 0 1430 28.98% 29.25%
9 2014-08-23 28.35 Gabala 2 1466 25.24% @ Baku 0 1483 45.88% 28.87%
10 2014-12-07 27.15 @ Khazar Lankaran 3 1485 44.72% Gabala 0 1477 26.28% 29.00%
11 2015-04-17 23.87 Gabala 3 1559 26.67% @ Neftchi Baku 1 1563 44.29% 29.05%
12 2014-12-17 23.05 AZAL 3 1385 28.42% @ Baku 1 1375 42.37% 29.21%
13 2015-05-22 22.49 @ Sumgayit 2 1363 36.86% Khazar Lankaran 0 1413 33.69% 29.45%
14 2014-11-02 22.40 @ Neftchi Baku 4 1530 58.29% AZAL 0 1404 15.45% 26.26%
15 2015-03-08 21.79 Inter Baku 2 1649 38.34% @ Neftchi Baku 0 1566 32.24% 29.42%
16 2014-09-27 20.51 Qarabag 3 1575 34.31% @ Neftchi Baku 1 1520 36.23% 29.46%
17 2015-05-08 20.50 @ Inter Baku 4 1677 60.29% Neftchi Baku 0 1531 14.11% 25.60%
18 2015-02-28 20.46 Gabala 1 1452 10.48% @ Qarabag 0 1666 66.44% 23.08%
19 2015-05-09 20.12 AZAL 2 1391 41.83% @ Baku 0 1283 28.93% 29.25%
20 2015-02-01 19.65 @ Simurq Zaqatala 2 1491 42.79% Khazar Lankaran 0 1498 28.04% 29.18%
21 2014-08-24 19.61 @ Inter Baku 5 1581 57.10% Sumgayit 1 1467 16.27% 26.62%
22 2015-03-18 18.98 Simurq Zaqatala 3 1513 55.80% @ Baku 0 1289 17.21% 26.99%
23 2015-02-01 18.81 Gabala 2 1467 44.47% @ Baku 0 1339 26.50% 29.03%
24 2015-02-15 18.71 Neftchi Baku 3 1539 38.73% @ Gabala 1 1453 31.86% 29.41%
25 2015-03-18 18.69 Gabala 2 1487 11.94% @ Inter Baku 1 1671 63.83% 24.23%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-05-16 70.1 @ Gabala 1 1606 31.05% Inter Baku 1 1698 39.58% 29.37%
2 2015-03-18 70.0 Gabala 2 1487 11.94% @ Inter Baku 1 1671 63.83% 24.23%
3 2015-05-02 69.6 @ Gabala 1 1592 32.00% Qarabag 1 1677 38.59% 29.41%
4 2014-11-24 68.6 @ Khazar Lankaran 2 1485 36.21% Neftchi Baku 2 1539 34.33% 29.46%
5 2014-08-31 68.1 @ Qarabag 2 1540 54.07% Baku 2 1454 18.50% 27.43%
6 2015-04-09 67.4 @ Khazar Lankaran 2 1421 24.79% Neftchi Baku 2 1564 46.40% 28.81%
7 2014-11-20 66.8 @ AZAL 3 1382 29.18% Gabala 3 1488 41.55% 29.27%
8 2014-12-13 66.0 @ Simurq Zaqatala 1 1477 23.71% Inter Baku 1 1630 47.64% 28.65%
9 2014-12-21 65.9 @ Gabala 1 1465 22.01% Inter Baku 1 1635 49.66% 28.33%
10 2015-05-08 65.9 @ Khazar Lankaran 1 1399 13.59% Qarabag 1 1676 61.11% 25.30%
11 2015-05-01 65.8 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1534 61.39% Sumgayit 2 1376 13.41% 25.20%
12 2015-02-19 65.5 @ AZAL 1 1434 18.20% Inter Baku 1 1646 54.46% 27.34%
13 2015-04-02 65.3 @ Qarabag 0 1656 44.19% Inter Baku 0 1652 26.75% 29.05%
14 2014-12-14 65.1 @ Gabala 2 1450 20.63% Qarabag 1 1634 51.35% 28.02%
15 2014-12-18 65.1 Qarabag 3 1619 41.85% @ Khazar Lankaran 2 1510 28.91% 29.25%
16 2015-05-28 64.9 @ Sumgayit 3 1385 11.22% Inter Baku 1 1706 65.08% 23.70%
17 2014-11-30 64.2 Qarabag 3 1628 44.71% @ Simurq Zaqatala 2 1498 26.29% 29.00%
18 2014-11-23 64.1 Simurq Zaqatala 3 1485 26.88% @ Gabala 2 1488 44.06% 29.07%
19 2014-10-29 64.0 @ Inter Baku 0 1613 43.65% Qarabag 0 1614 27.25% 29.10%
20 2014-09-27 63.9 @ AZAL 1 1417 18.97% Inter Baku 1 1620 53.45% 27.58%
21 2014-10-29 63.7 @ AZAL 2 1404 32.93% Simurq Zaqatala 2 1482 37.63% 29.44%
22 2015-02-28 63.5 Gabala 1 1452 10.48% @ Qarabag 0 1666 66.44% 23.08%
23 2014-12-07 63.4 @ Qarabag 0 1637 55.65% Neftchi Baku 0 1537 17.32% 27.03%
24 2015-05-22 63.1 @ Inter Baku 2 1697 46.57% Qarabag 1 1675 24.64% 28.79%
25 2015-05-01 62.8 Inter Baku 3 1670 51.71% @ Simurq Zaqatala 2 1483 20.34% 27.95%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-05-28 29.5 @ Gabala 3 1607 77.01% Baku 0 1251 5.69% 17.30%
2 2015-05-15 29.8 @ Simurq Zaqatala 4 1476 66.35% Baku 0 1263 10.53% 23.12%
3 2015-04-01 31.8 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1544 71.31% Baku 0 1270 8.07% 20.62%
4 2015-02-15 33.0 @ Inter Baku 4 1637 74.77% Baku 0 1315 6.57% 18.66%
5 2015-03-08 34.0 @ AZAL 2 1426 58.26% Baku 0 1300 15.46% 26.27%
6 2015-03-18 34.4 Simurq Zaqatala 3 1513 55.80% @ Baku 0 1289 17.21% 26.99%
7 2014-11-02 37.3 @ Neftchi Baku 4 1530 58.29% AZAL 0 1404 15.45% 26.26%
8 2015-05-09 38.2 AZAL 2 1391 41.83% @ Baku 0 1283 28.93% 29.25%
9 2015-03-08 38.3 @ Gabala 2 1473 53.81% Sumgayit 0 1389 18.70% 27.50%
10 2015-02-07 38.4 @ Qarabag 4 1636 74.27% Baku 1 1320 6.77% 18.95%
11 2014-10-19 38.5 @ Khazar Lankaran 4 1447 47.19% Baku 0 1420 24.10% 28.71%
12 2015-02-01 39.6 Gabala 2 1467 44.47% @ Baku 0 1339 26.50% 29.03%
13 2014-12-21 39.9 @ Qarabag 2 1628 67.74% Sumgayit 0 1398 9.80% 22.47%
14 2015-04-25 40.2 @ Inter Baku 2 1664 70.71% AZAL 0 1397 8.34% 20.95%
15 2014-08-17 40.9 @ Simurq Zaqatala 2 1484 50.49% AZAL 0 1430 21.32% 28.19%
16 2015-05-22 41.3 @ Sumgayit 2 1363 36.86% Khazar Lankaran 0 1413 33.69% 29.45%
17 2014-12-22 41.5 @ Simurq Zaqatala 5 1478 58.38% Baku 2 1352 15.38% 26.23%
18 2015-05-08 41.7 Gabala 2 1592 54.62% @ Sumgayit 0 1379 18.08% 27.30%
19 2015-05-16 41.7 @ Qarabag 1 1673 73.72% Sumgayit 0 1365 7.01% 19.27%
20 2015-04-05 42.0 @ Inter Baku 2 1654 67.35% Khazar Lankaran 0 1429 10.00% 22.65%
21 2014-09-19 42.1 @ Inter Baku 7 1585 59.95% Baku 0 1442 14.34% 25.71%
22 2014-12-07 42.5 @ Inter Baku 1 1626 68.36% AZAL 0 1389 9.48% 22.16%
23 2014-08-24 42.6 @ Simurq Zaqatala 2 1500 49.51% Khazar Lankaran 0 1454 22.13% 28.36%
24 2014-12-07 42.6 @ Khazar Lankaran 3 1485 44.72% Gabala 0 1477 26.28% 29.00%
25 2015-02-28 43.2 @ Khazar Lankaran 2 1436 58.71% Baku 1 1306 15.16% 26.13%