2022-23 Azerbaijan Premier League Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Qarabag

90 points · 10th Title

Last Title: 2021-22

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sabah

13.24 points above expected

81 points · 67.76 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Shamakhi

9.13 points below expected

25 points · 34.13 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Qarabag Champion	36	28	6	2	90	91	25	+66	86.75	+3.25
2	Sabah	36	25	6	5	81	75	24	+51	67.76	+13.24
3	Neftchi Baku	36	20	8	8	68	63	38	+25	65.58	+2.42
4	Gabala	36	13	11	12	50	47	47	0	54.21	-4.21
5	Zira	36	13	11	12	50	45	46	-1	51.97	-1.97
6	Turan Tovuz	36	10	9	17	39	36	49	-13	36.40	+2.60
7	Kapaz	36	6	13	17	31	34	62	-28	38.80	-7.80
8	Sumgayit	36	8	7	21	31	26	70	-44	35.69	-4.69
9	Sabail	36	7	8	21	29	32	62	-30	28.54	+0.46
10	Shamakhi	36	4	13	19	25	26	52	-26	34.13	-9.13

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sabah	81	67.76	+13.24
2	Qarabag	90	86.75	+3.25
3	Turan Tovuz	39	36.40	+2.60
4	Neftchi Baku	68	65.58	+2.42
5	Sabail	29	28.54	+0.46

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Shamakhi	25	34.13	-9.13
2	Kapaz	31	38.80	-7.80
3	Sumgayit	31	35.69	-4.69
4	Gabala	50	54.21	-4.21
5	Zira	50	51.97	-1.97

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Turan Tovuz	3	Feb 6 – Feb 19	1 in 77
2	Sabah	7	Sep 16 – Nov 6	1 in 52
3	Qarabag	13	Aug 6 – Nov 9	1 in 35
4	Gabala	4	Apr 7 – May 1	1 in 34
5	Neftchi Baku	4	Aug 26 – Sep 16	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kapaz	6	Aug 5 – Sep 9	1 in 138
2	Sabah	2	Feb 19 – Feb 25	1 in 71
3	Sabail	8	Oct 29 – Jan 26	1 in 44
4	Sumgayit	4	Oct 8 – Oct 28	1 in 22
5	Shamakhi	4	Jan 31 – Feb 17	1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sabah	16	Sep 16 – Feb 11	1 in 106
2	Shamakhi	5	Nov 4 – Dec 13	1 in 31
3	Qarabag	29	Aug 6 – Apr 9	1 in 22
4	Neftchi Baku	10	Feb 1 – Apr 8	1 in 15
5	Sabail	3	Aug 19 – Sep 4	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sumgayit	15	Aug 7 – Nov 29	1 in 139
2	Neftchi Baku	5	Apr 14 – May 14	1 in 92
3	Shamakhi	12	Aug 7 – Oct 30	1 in 34
4	Kapaz	10	Nov 6 – Feb 11	1 in 34
5	Sabah	3	Feb 11 – Feb 25	1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Qarabag	1819	90	+2	12	12.4	-0.4
Sabah	1668	81	+5	10	10.6	-0.6
Neftchi Baku	1601	68	-24	7	8.3	-1.3
Zira	1510	50	+9	8	8.1	-0.1
Gabala	1512	50	-10	5	8.3	-3.3
Turan Tovuz	1421	39	+46	10	4.6	+5.4
Sumgayit	1354	31	-11	6	4.5	+1.5
Kapaz	1389	31	-14	2	4.7	-2.7
Sabail	1322	29	+12	7	4.1	+2.9
Shamakhi	1353	25	-15	2	4.3	-2.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	GAB	KAP	NB	QAR	SAB	SAB	SHA	SUM	TT	ZIR
Gabala	—	1-3-0 7.19	1-1-2 4.00	0-0-4 2.03	0-0-4 3.83	3-1-0 8.37	2-2-0 7.65	3-1-0 7.45	1-2-1 7.36	2-1-1 5.52
Kapaz	0-3-1 3.81	—	0-1-3 2.94	0-1-3 1.32	0-1-3 2.49	2-0-2 6.97	2-2-0 5.91	1-1-2 5.77	1-1-2 5.82	0-3-1 3.95
Neftchi Baku	2-1-1 6.98	3-1-0 8.20	—	0-1-3 2.90	1-0-3 4.93	3-1-0 9.37	3-1-0 8.61	3-1-0 8.53	2-1-1 8.62	3-1-0 6.85
Qarabag	4-0-0 9.32	3-1-0 10.24	3-1-0 8.25	—	1-2-1 7.98	4-0-0 10.84	4-0-0 10.44	3-0-1 10.32	4-0-0 10.36	2-2-0 9.36
Sabah	4-0-0 7.18	3-1-0 8.74	3-0-1 6.00	1-2-1 3.12	—	2-1-1 9.62	2-1-1 9.06	4-0-0 8.76	3-0-1 8.92	3-1-0 7.26
Sabail	0-1-3 2.79	2-0-2 4.01	0-1-3 1.99	0-0-4 0.86	1-1-2 1.80	—	1-2-1 4.57	2-0-2 4.31	0-3-1 4.25	1-0-3 2.86
Shamakhi	0-2-2 3.40	0-2-2 5.01	0-1-3 2.60	0-0-4 1.17	1-1-2 2.24	1-2-1 6.38	—	1-2-1 5.23	1-1-2 5.30	0-2-2 3.52
Sumgayit	0-1-3 3.58	2-1-1 5.16	0-1-3 2.66	1-0-3 1.26	0-0-4 2.49	2-0-2 6.64	1-2-1 5.69	—	2-1-1 5.56	0-1-3 3.67
Turan Tovuz	1-2-1 3.66	2-1-1 5.10	1-1-2 2.59	0-0-4 1.23	1-0-3 2.35	1-3-0 6.71	2-1-1 5.62	1-1-2 5.36	—	1-0-3 3.73
Zira	1-1-2 5.40	1-3-0 7.04	0-1-3 4.12	0-2-2 2.00	0-1-3 3.77	3-0-1 8.29	2-2-0 7.52	3-1-0 7.35	3-0-1 7.29	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.98	+10.3
Allowed	0.86	-14.0
Differential	0.96	+6.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	8.61%	5.83%	4.44%	2.50%	0.83%	30.56%
1	8.61%	11.11%	6.11%	5.28%	0.28%	0.28%	31.67%
2	5.83%	6.11%	6.11%	1.67%	0.83%	0.28%	20.83%
3	4.44%	5.28%	1.67%	—	0.28%	—	11.67%
4	2.50%	0.28%	0.83%	0.28%	—	—	3.89%
5+	0.83%	0.28%	0.28%	—	—	—	1.39%
Total	30.56%	31.67%	20.83%	11.67%	3.89%	1.39%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	1.32	+0.00
SD	1.25	1.25	1.93
CV	0.95	0.95	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	25.00%
1	5.56%	13.89%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	13.89%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
3	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	36.11%	30.56%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.31	1.31	+0.00
SD	1.04	0.95	1.41
CV	0.79	0.73	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	2.78%	36.11%
1	5.56%	19.44%	2.78%	8.33%	2.78%	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	2.78%	19.44%
3	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.89%	36.11%	27.78%	13.89%	2.78%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	1.72	-0.78
SD	0.89	1.28	1.57
CV	0.95	0.74	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	5.56%	—	13.89%
1	13.89%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	27.78%
3	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	47.22%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	1.06	+0.69
SD	1.23	1.29	1.98
CV	0.70	1.22	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	13.89%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
3	13.89%	22.22%	2.78%	—	—	—	38.89%
4	8.33%	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	13.89%
5+	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	50.00%	33.33%	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.53	0.69	+1.83
SD	1.54	0.82	1.66
CV	0.61	1.18	—
Max	7	3	+6
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	13.89%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	16.67%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	22.22%
4	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	58.33%	22.22%	16.67%	—	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.08	0.67	+1.42
SD	1.44	0.96	1.79
CV	0.69	1.43	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	8.33%	13.89%	2.78%	—	41.67%
1	8.33%	8.33%	11.11%	8.33%	—	—	36.11%
2	2.78%	2.78%	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	16.67%
3	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	27.78%	27.78%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.89	1.72	-0.83
SD	0.98	1.16	1.63
CV	1.10	0.67	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	27.78%	2.78%	5.56%	5.56%	—	52.78%
1	—	22.22%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	30.56%
2	—	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
3	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	58.33%	11.11%	13.89%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.72	1.44	-0.72
SD	0.97	1.05	1.37
CV	1.35	0.73	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	50.00%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	30.56%
2	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	16.67%
3	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	19.44%	19.44%	19.44%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.72	1.94	-1.22
SD	0.85	1.67	1.99
CV	1.18	0.86	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	8.33%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	36.11%
1	11.11%	8.33%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	36.11%
2	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	22.22%	22.22%	19.44%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.36	-0.36
SD	0.99	1.22	1.66
CV	0.99	0.90	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
1	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	2.78%	27.78%
2	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	13.89%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	38.89%	22.22%	8.33%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.28	-0.03
SD	1.05	1.34	1.78
CV	0.84	1.05	—
Max	3	7	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Qarabag	1819	90	86.75	+3.25	64.0%	72	74	82	87	92	95	98
Sabah	1668	81	67.76	+13.24	96.0%	49	54	62	68	72	80	83
Neftchi Baku	1601	68	65.58	+2.42	67.0%	48	54	61	66	70	76	86
Gabala	1512	50	54.21	-4.21	28.0%	37	42	49	55	59	64	72
Zira	1510	50	51.97	-1.97	41.0%	38	42	48	52	56	61	68
Turan Tovuz	1421	39	36.40	+2.60	71.0%	22	26	31	37	40	48	54
Kapaz	1389	31	38.80	-7.80	18.0%	20	25	33	38	44	52	60
Sumgayit	1354	31	35.69	-4.69	29.0%	20	25	30	35	41	48	52
Shamakhi	1353	25	34.13	-9.13	9.0%	22	22	29	35	39	42	56
Sabail	1322	29	28.54	+0.46	57.0%	12	17	24	28	33	40	41

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7.5% * Slight Edge: 7.5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+5.56%

No Edge

40.00%25.56%34.44%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 19.32 Elo pts.

184 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.05 goals

Neutral

-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.34 * Runaway: 0.34 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.1

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

97%

Qarabag, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.25/gm

Comfortable

00.440.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.47 * Some Luck: 5.47 to 8.2 * Lucky: 8.2 to 10.93 * Wild Swing: 10.93 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.68 * Close: 0.68 to 1.03 * Off: 1.03 to 1.37 * Way Off: 1.37 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.19 points

Some Luck

06.8317

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.40

Pinpoint

00.852

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

96.00%

Sabah

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

9.00%

Shamakhi

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.21 * Even: 0.21 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.15 * Moderate Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Strong Separation: 2.3 to 2.6 * Wide Separation: 2.6 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 73.5% * Slight Edge: 73.5% to 77.5% * Clear Edge: 77.5% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92% * Clear Edge: 92% to 97% * Strong Edge: 97% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59% * Some Drama: 59% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 67% * Very Frequent: 67% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14% * Occasional: 14% to 17.5% * Frequent: 17.5% to 21.5% * Very Frequent: 21.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.24

Top-Heavy

00.210.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 161.06

2.93

Wide Separation

12.152.63.25

Interquartile Edge

78%

Clear Edge

50%73.5%84%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 95%

95%

Clear Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

59%

Few

0%56%100%

Blowouts

Expected

17%

Occasional

0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.53

Highly Predictable

00.542

Matchup Imbalance

0.47

Notable Separation

00.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.77

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.88

Near-Lock

00.470.651

Upset Rate

Expected

14%

Chalky

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

11%

Solid Favorites

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.88

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.31

Very Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.070

Well Within Noise

00.1230.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Qarabag	97.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Sabah	1.00%	57.00%	31.00%	7.00%	4.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Neftchi Baku	2.00%	37.00%	48.00%	10.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Gabala	—	3.00%	16.00%	39.00%	28.00%	11.00%	—	2.00%	1.00%	—
Zira	—	—	5.00%	37.00%	43.00%	11.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—
Turan Tovuz	—	—	—	1.00%	6.00%	23.00%	24.00%	17.00%	22.00%	7.00%
Kapaz	—	—	—	4.00%	11.00%	22.00%	24.00%	15.00%	16.00%	8.00%
Sumgayit	—	—	—	1.00%	4.00%	13.00%	18.00%	28.00%	24.00%	12.00%
Sabail	—	—	—	—	—	3.00%	12.00%	12.00%	17.00%	56.00%
Shamakhi	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	16.00%	19.00%	25.00%	20.00%	17.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Gabala	100%	—
Neftchi Baku	100%	—
Qarabag	100%	—
Sabah	100%	—
Zira	100%	—
Turan Tovuz	93.00%	7.00%
Kapaz	92.00%	8.00%
Sumgayit	88.00%	12.00%
Shamakhi	83.00%	17.00%
Sabail	44.00%	56.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2022-08-05	Zira	L 1-2	55.0	1457	1524	30.15%	26.71%	43.14%	-0.26	-4.3	0
2022-08-05	@ Kapaz	W 2-1	55.0	1524	1457	43.14%	26.71%	30.15%	+0.26	+4.3	3
2022-08-06	Sabail	W 3-1	43.2	1770	1321	86.45%	8.21%	5.34%	+2.55	+1.1	3
2022-08-06	@ Qarabag	L 1-3	43.2	1321	1770	5.34%	8.21%	86.45%	-2.55	-1.1	0
2022-08-07	Neftchi Baku	L 0-1	44.2	1394	1578	18.77%	22.78%	58.44%	-0.90	-2.9	0
2022-08-07	@ Shamakhi	W 1-0	44.2	1578	1394	58.44%	22.78%	18.77%	+0.90	+3.0	3
2022-08-07	Sumgayit	W 3-0	40.7	1574	1431	58.24%	22.86%	18.90%	+0.89	+8.1	3
2022-08-07	@ Sabah	L 0-3	40.7	1431	1574	18.90%	22.86%	58.24%	-0.89	-8.2	0
2022-08-08	Gabala	L 0-2	40.8	1387	1514	23.52%	25.12%	51.36%	-0.59	-7.0	0
2022-08-08	@ Turan Tovuz	W 2-0	40.8	1514	1387	51.36%	25.12%	23.52%	+0.59	+7.0	3
2022-08-12	Sabah	L 1-3	57.3	1528	1582	31.66%	26.88%	41.45%	-0.19	-7.8	3
2022-08-12	@ Zira	W 3-1	57.3	1582	1528	41.45%	26.88%	31.66%	+0.19	+7.8	6
2022-08-13	Qarabag	L 0-2	43.2	1423	1771	9.82%	14.23%	75.95%	-1.80	-2.6	0
2022-08-13	@ Sumgayit	W 2-0	43.2	1771	1423	75.95%	14.23%	9.82%	+1.80	+2.6	6
2022-08-13	Turan Tovuz	L 0-1	42.0	1320	1380	30.96%	26.81%	42.23%	-0.22	-4.7	0
2022-08-13	@ Sabail	W 1-0	42.0	1380	1320	42.23%	26.81%	30.96%	+0.22	+4.7	3
2022-08-14	Kapaz	W 5-2	50.0	1581	1453	56.34%	23.56%	20.09%	+0.80	+6.3	6
2022-08-14	@ Neftchi Baku	L 2-5	50.0	1453	1581	20.09%	23.56%	56.34%	-0.80	-6.3	0
2022-08-14	Shamakhi	W 3-1	45.7	1521	1391	56.58%	23.48%	19.94%	+0.81	+5.1	6
2022-08-14	@ Gabala	L 1-3	45.7	1391	1521	19.94%	23.48%	56.58%	-0.81	-5.1	0
2022-08-19	Sabail	D 1-1	54.8	1386	1315	49.01%	25.70%	25.29%	+0.49	-0.7	1
2022-08-19	@ Shamakhi	D 1-1	54.8	1315	1386	25.29%	25.70%	49.01%	-0.49	+0.7	1
2022-08-20	Neftchi Baku	W 2-1	62.6	1590	1587	39.63%	27.01%	33.35%	+0.12	+4.7	9
2022-08-20	@ Sabah	L 1-2	62.6	1587	1590	33.35%	27.01%	39.63%	-0.12	-4.7	6
2022-08-21	Gabala	L 0-3	43.5	1447	1526	28.57%	26.46%	44.96%	-0.33	-12.0	0
2022-08-21	@ Kapaz	W 3-0	43.5	1526	1447	44.96%	26.46%	28.57%	+0.33	+12.0	9
2022-08-21	Sumgayit	D 0-0	56.2	1520	1420	52.85%	24.70%	22.45%	+0.65	-1.0	4
2022-08-21	@ Zira	D 0-0	56.2	1420	1520	22.45%	24.70%	52.85%	-0.65	+1.0	1
2022-08-26	Turan Tovuz	D 0-0	51.6	1421	1384	44.35%	26.55%	29.10%	+0.30	-0.5	2
2022-08-26	@ Sumgayit	D 0-0	51.6	1384	1421	29.10%	26.55%	44.35%	-0.30	+0.5	4
2022-08-26	Zira	W 2-1	57.9	1583	1519	48.02%	25.91%	26.07%	+0.45	+3.8	9
2022-08-26	@ Neftchi Baku	L 1-2	57.9	1519	1583	26.07%	25.91%	48.02%	-0.45	-3.8	4
2022-08-27	Kapaz	W 4-1	48.6	1316	1435	24.36%	25.41%	50.23%	-0.54	+15.6	4
2022-08-27	@ Sabail	L 1-4	48.6	1435	1316	50.23%	25.41%	24.36%	+0.54	-15.6	0
2022-08-27	Shamakhi	W 4-0	38.3	1774	1385	82.40%	10.57%	7.04%	+2.22	+3.3	9
2022-08-27	@ Qarabag	L 0-4	38.3	1385	1774	7.04%	10.57%	82.40%	-2.22	-3.3	1
2022-08-28	Sabah	L 0-2	51.9	1538	1595	31.37%	26.85%	41.77%	-0.20	-8.9	9
2022-08-28	@ Gabala	W 2-0	51.9	1595	1538	41.77%	26.85%	31.37%	+0.20	+8.9	12
2022-09-01	Qarabag	L 0-1	46.0	1419	1777	9.45%	13.75%	76.80%	-1.85	-1.3	0
2022-09-01	@ Kapaz	W 1-0	46.0	1777	1419	76.80%	13.75%	9.45%	+1.85	+1.3	12
2022-09-03	Sumgayit	W 3-0	40.0	1586	1420	60.90%	21.78%	17.31%	+1.01	+7.4	12
2022-09-03	@ Neftchi Baku	L 0-3	40.0	1420	1586	17.31%	21.78%	60.90%	-1.01	-7.4	2
2022-09-03	Turan Tovuz	L 0-1	45.5	1382	1385	38.80%	27.05%	34.15%	+0.09	-5.5	1
2022-09-03	@ Shamakhi	W 1-0	45.5	1385	1382	34.15%	27.05%	38.80%	-0.09	+5.5	7
2022-09-04	Gabala	W 2-1	59.2	1515	1529	37.23%	27.10%	35.67%	+0.03	+4.9	7
2022-09-04	@ Zira	L 1-2	59.2	1529	1515	35.67%	27.10%	37.23%	-0.03	-4.9	9
2022-09-04	Sabail	D 0-0	58.5	1604	1332	72.37%	16.19%	11.44%	+1.59	-2.1	13
2022-09-04	@ Sabah	D 0-0	58.5	1332	1604	11.44%	16.19%	72.37%	-1.59	+2.1	5
2022-09-09	Kapaz	W 2-0	43.0	1390	1418	35.33%	27.09%	37.58%	-0.04	+10.2	10
2022-09-09	@ Turan Tovuz	L 0-2	43.0	1418	1390	37.58%	27.09%	35.33%	+0.04	-10.2	0
2022-09-10	Neftchi Baku	L 1-2	59.8	1524	1594	29.78%	26.66%	43.56%	-0.27	-4.3	9
2022-09-10	@ Gabala	W 2-1	59.8	1594	1524	43.56%	26.66%	29.78%	+0.27	+4.3	15
2022-09-10	Zira	L 1-2	46.0	1334	1520	18.56%	22.65%	58.79%	-0.91	-2.8	5
2022-09-10	@ Sabail	W 2-1	46.0	1520	1334	58.79%	22.65%	18.56%	+0.91	+2.8	10
2022-09-11	Sabah	W 4-3	66.6	1779	1602	62.19%	21.23%	16.58%	+1.07	+2.2	15
2022-09-11	@ Qarabag	L 3-4	66.6	1602	1779	16.58%	21.23%	62.19%	-1.07	-2.3	13
2022-09-11	Shamakhi	D 1-1	56.1	1413	1376	44.36%	26.55%	29.09%	+0.30	-0.4	3
2022-09-11	@ Sumgayit	D 1-1	56.1	1376	1413	29.09%	26.55%	44.36%	-0.30	+0.4	2
2022-09-16	Sabail	W 2-0	35.6	1598	1331	71.88%	16.45%	11.67%	+1.56	+3.2	18
2022-09-16	@ Neftchi Baku	L 0-2	35.6	1331	1598	11.67%	16.45%	71.88%	-1.56	-3.2	5
2022-09-16	Turan Tovuz	W 3-1	46.4	1599	1401	64.65%	20.11%	15.25%	+1.19	+3.8	16
2022-09-16	@ Sabah	L 1-3	46.4	1401	1599	15.25%	20.11%	64.65%	-1.19	-3.8	10
2022-09-17	Sumgayit	W 1-0	44.2	1520	1413	53.77%	24.42%	21.81%	+0.69	+3.4	12
2022-09-17	@ Gabala	L 0-1	44.2	1413	1520	21.81%	24.42%	53.77%	-0.69	-3.4	3
2022-09-18	Qarabag	L 1-7	48.3	1523	1781	14.08%	19.02%	66.90%	-1.30	-9.2	10
2022-09-18	@ Zira	W 7-1	48.3	1781	1523	66.90%	19.02%	14.08%	+1.30	+9.2	18
2022-09-18	Shamakhi	W 2-1	48.9	1407	1377	43.53%	26.66%	29.81%	+0.27	+4.3	3
2022-09-18	@ Kapaz	L 1-2	48.9	1377	1407	29.81%	26.66%	43.53%	-0.27	-4.3	2
2022-09-30	Gabala	L 1-2	45.6	1328	1524	17.91%	22.21%	59.88%	-0.96	-2.7	5
2022-09-30	@ Sabail	W 2-1	45.6	1524	1328	59.88%	22.21%	17.91%	+0.96	+2.7	15
2022-10-01	Neftchi Baku	W 3-1	55.8	1790	1601	63.54%	20.62%	15.84%	+1.13	+4.0	21
2022-10-01	@ Qarabag	L 1-3	55.8	1601	1790	15.84%	20.62%	63.54%	-1.13	-4.0	18
2022-10-01	Zira	L 1-3	47.6	1397	1514	24.53%	25.47%	50.00%	-0.53	-6.3	10
2022-10-01	@ Turan Tovuz	W 3-1	47.6	1514	1397	50.00%	25.47%	24.53%	+0.53	+6.3	13
2022-10-02	Kapaz	D 0-0	51.8	1409	1412	38.85%	27.05%	34.10%	+0.09	-0.2	4
2022-10-02	@ Sumgayit	D 0-0	51.8	1412	1409	34.10%	27.05%	38.85%	-0.09	+0.2	4
2022-10-02	Sabah	L 0-1	42.7	1373	1603	15.65%	20.46%	63.89%	-1.15	-2.4	2
2022-10-02	@ Shamakhi	W 1-0	42.7	1603	1373	63.89%	20.46%	15.65%	+1.15	+2.4	19
2022-10-07	Shamakhi	W 1-0	41.2	1520	1370	59.00%	22.56%	18.43%	+0.92	+2.9	16
2022-10-07	@ Zira	L 0-1	41.2	1370	1520	18.43%	22.56%	59.00%	-0.92	-2.9	2
2022-10-08	Sumgayit	W 1-0	46.7	1325	1409	28.05%	26.37%	45.58%	-0.35	+6.3	8
2022-10-08	@ Sabail	L 0-1	46.7	1409	1325	45.58%	26.37%	28.05%	+0.35	-6.3	4
2022-10-08	Turan Tovuz	D 0-0	59.4	1597	1391	65.54%	19.68%	14.78%	+1.23	-1.8	19
2022-10-08	@ Neftchi Baku	D 0-0	59.4	1391	1597	14.78%	19.68%	65.54%	-1.23	+1.7	11
2022-10-09	Kapaz	W 5-0	39.5	1606	1412	64.09%	20.37%	15.54%	+1.16	+10.6	22
2022-10-09	@ Sabah	L 0-5	39.5	1412	1606	15.54%	20.37%	64.09%	-1.16	-10.6	4
2022-10-09	Qarabag	L 0-1	50.7	1526	1794	13.54%	18.48%	67.98%	-1.35	-2.0	15
2022-10-09	@ Gabala	W 1-0	50.7	1794	1526	67.98%	18.48%	13.54%	+1.35	+2.0	24
2022-10-14	Gabala	D 1-1	59.6	1367	1524	20.90%	23.98%	55.12%	-0.75	+1.0	3
2022-10-14	@ Shamakhi	D 1-1	59.6	1524	1367	55.12%	23.98%	20.90%	+0.75	-1.0	16
2022-10-15	Sabail	D 2-2	61.1	1392	1331	47.71%	25.98%	26.31%	+0.44	-0.5	12
2022-10-15	@ Turan Tovuz	D 2-2	61.1	1331	1392	26.31%	25.98%	47.71%	-0.44	+0.5	9
2022-10-15	Zira	W 1-0	52.0	1616	1523	51.95%	24.96%	23.09%	+0.61	+3.6	25
2022-10-15	@ Sabah	L 0-1	52.0	1523	1616	23.09%	24.96%	51.95%	-0.61	-3.6	16
2022-10-16	Neftchi Baku	L 0-2	41.8	1401	1596	18.03%	22.29%	59.68%	-0.95	-5.3	4
2022-10-16	@ Kapaz	W 2-0	41.8	1596	1401	59.68%	22.29%	18.03%	+0.95	+5.3	22
2022-10-16	Sumgayit	W 3-1	47.3	1796	1403	82.74%	10.37%	6.89%	+2.25	+1.5	27
2022-10-16	@ Qarabag	L 1-3	47.3	1403	1796	6.89%	10.37%	82.74%	-2.25	-1.5	4
2022-10-20	Turan Tovuz	W 3-0	39.0	1798	1392	83.62%	9.86%	6.52%	+2.32	+2.3	30
2022-10-20	@ Qarabag	L 0-3	39.0	1392	1798	6.52%	9.86%	83.62%	-2.32	-2.3	12
2022-10-22	Kapaz	D 1-1	60.6	1523	1396	56.23%	23.60%	20.16%	+0.80	-1.1	17
2022-10-22	@ Gabala	D 1-1	60.6	1396	1523	20.16%	23.60%	56.23%	-0.80	+1.1	5
2022-10-22	Zira	L 0-2	41.9	1401	1519	24.43%	25.43%	50.14%	-0.54	-7.2	4
2022-10-22	@ Sumgayit	W 2-0	41.9	1519	1401	50.14%	25.43%	24.43%	+0.54	+7.2	19
2022-10-23	Sabah	L 2-3	69.7	1601	1620	36.50%	27.10%	36.39%	+0.00	-4.7	22
2022-10-23	@ Neftchi Baku	W 3-2	69.7	1620	1601	36.39%	27.10%	36.50%	+0.00	+4.7	28
2022-10-23	Shamakhi	D 0-0	49.6	1332	1368	34.02%	27.05%	38.94%	-0.09	+0.1	10
2022-10-23	@ Sabail	D 0-0	49.6	1368	1332	38.94%	27.05%	34.02%	+0.09	-0.2	4
2022-10-28	Sumgayit	W 1-0	44.5	1390	1394	38.57%	27.06%	34.37%	+0.08	+5.1	15
2022-10-28	@ Turan Tovuz	L 0-1	44.5	1394	1390	34.37%	27.06%	38.57%	-0.08	-5.1	4
2022-10-29	Neftchi Baku	L 0-3	49.2	1527	1596	29.76%	26.65%	43.58%	-0.27	-12.4	19
2022-10-29	@ Zira	W 3-0	49.2	1596	1527	43.58%	26.65%	29.76%	+0.27	+12.4	25
2022-10-29	Sabail	W 3-0	35.8	1397	1332	48.27%	25.86%	25.87%	+0.46	+11.0	8
2022-10-29	@ Kapaz	L 0-3	35.8	1332	1397	25.87%	25.86%	48.27%	-0.46	-11.0	10
2022-10-30	Gabala	W 2-1	57.7	1625	1522	53.15%	24.61%	22.24%	+0.66	+3.3	31
2022-10-30	@ Sabah	L 1-2	57.7	1522	1625	22.24%	24.61%	53.15%	-0.66	-3.3	17
2022-10-30	Qarabag	L 0-4	38.4	1368	1800	6.90%	10.38%	82.72%	-2.25	-3.2	4
2022-10-30	@ Shamakhi	W 4-0	38.4	1800	1368	82.72%	10.38%	6.90%	+2.25	+3.2	33
2022-11-04	Shamakhi	L 1-3	49.7	1395	1365	43.40%	26.68%	29.92%	+0.27	-9.8	15
2022-11-04	@ Turan Tovuz	W 3-1	49.7	1365	1395	29.92%	26.68%	43.40%	-0.27	+9.8	7
2022-11-05	Neftchi Baku	D 2-2	70.3	1389	1609	16.34%	21.03%	62.63%	-1.09	+1.1	5
2022-11-05	@ Sumgayit	D 2-2	70.3	1609	1389	62.63%	21.03%	16.34%	+1.09	-1.1	26
2022-11-05	Zira	W 1-0	52.0	1519	1514	39.87%	27.00%	33.13%	+0.13	+4.9	20
2022-11-05	@ Gabala	L 0-1	52.0	1514	1519	33.13%	27.00%	39.87%	-0.13	-4.9	19
2022-11-06	Kapaz	W 3-1	47.6	1803	1408	82.86%	10.30%	6.84%	+2.26	+1.5	36
2022-11-06	@ Qarabag	L 1-3	47.6	1408	1803	6.84%	10.30%	82.86%	-2.26	-1.5	8
2022-11-06	Sabah	L 0-2	36.3	1321	1628	11.62%	16.39%	71.99%	-1.57	-3.2	10
2022-11-06	@ Sabail	W 2-0	36.3	1628	1321	71.99%	16.39%	11.62%	+1.57	+3.2	34
2022-11-09	Qarabag	L 0-2	41.3	1385	1805	7.27%	10.89%	81.84%	-2.18	-1.8	15
2022-11-09	@ Turan Tovuz	W 2-0	41.3	1805	1385	81.84%	10.89%	7.27%	+2.18	+1.8	39
2022-11-11	Sumgayit	W 4-2	51.5	1375	1390	37.03%	27.10%	35.87%	+0.02	+7.6	10
2022-11-11	@ Shamakhi	L 2-4	51.5	1390	1375	35.87%	27.10%	37.03%	-0.02	-7.6	5
2022-11-12	Gabala	W 2-0	49.1	1607	1524	50.73%	25.28%	23.99%	+0.56	+7.1	29
2022-11-12	@ Neftchi Baku	L 0-2	49.1	1524	1607	23.99%	25.28%	50.73%	-0.56	-7.1	20
2022-11-12	Sabail	W 1-0	37.9	1509	1318	63.85%	20.48%	15.67%	+1.15	+2.4	22
2022-11-12	@ Zira	L 0-1	37.9	1318	1509	15.67%	20.48%	63.85%	-1.15	-2.4	10
2022-11-13	Qarabag	D 0-0	68.1	1631	1806	19.41%	23.17%	57.41%	-0.85	+1.3	35
2022-11-13	@ Sabah	D 0-0	68.1	1806	1631	57.41%	23.17%	19.41%	+0.85	-1.3	40
2022-11-13	Turan Tovuz	D 0-0	51.2	1407	1383	42.56%	26.77%	30.66%	+0.23	-0.4	9
2022-11-13	@ Kapaz	D 0-0	51.2	1383	1407	30.66%	26.77%	42.56%	-0.23	+0.4	16
2022-11-27	Neftchi Baku	L 1-3	41.9	1315	1615	11.97%	16.80%	71.23%	-1.53	-2.9	10
2022-11-27	@ Sabail	W 3-1	41.9	1615	1315	71.23%	16.80%	11.97%	+1.53	+2.9	32
2022-11-28	Kapaz	D 1-1	55.9	1382	1406	35.81%	27.10%	37.10%	-0.02	+0.0	11
2022-11-28	@ Shamakhi	D 1-1	55.9	1406	1382	37.10%	27.10%	35.81%	+0.02	-0.0	10
2022-11-28	Zira	D 0-0	69.6	1805	1512	74.41%	15.08%	10.51%	+1.70	-2.2	41
2022-11-28	@ Qarabag	D 0-0	69.6	1512	1805	10.51%	15.08%	74.41%	-1.70	+2.2	23
2022-11-29	Gabala	D 1-1	59.5	1382	1517	22.89%	24.88%	52.23%	-0.63	+0.9	6
2022-11-29	@ Sumgayit	D 1-1	59.5	1517	1382	52.23%	24.88%	22.89%	+0.63	-0.9	21
2022-11-29	Sabah	L 0-1	43.6	1383	1632	14.57%	19.49%	65.94%	-1.25	-2.2	16
2022-11-29	@ Turan Tovuz	W 1-0	43.6	1632	1383	65.94%	19.49%	14.57%	+1.25	+2.2	38
2022-12-02	Qarabag	L 0-4	49.3	1617	1803	18.65%	22.71%	58.64%	-0.91	-10.5	32
2022-12-02	@ Neftchi Baku	W 4-0	49.3	1803	1617	58.64%	22.71%	18.65%	+0.91	+10.5	44
2022-12-03	Sabail	W 2-1	43.4	1516	1312	65.17%	19.86%	14.97%	+1.21	+2.2	24
2022-12-03	@ Gabala	L 1-2	43.4	1312	1516	14.97%	19.86%	65.17%	-1.21	-2.2	10
2022-12-03	Shamakhi	D 1-1	66.1	1635	1382	70.35%	17.26%	12.39%	+1.48	-1.8	39
2022-12-03	@ Sabah	D 1-1	66.1	1382	1635	12.39%	17.26%	70.35%	-1.48	+1.8	12
2022-12-04	Sumgayit	L 0-1	47.0	1406	1383	42.46%	26.79%	30.76%	+0.23	-5.9	10
2022-12-04	@ Kapaz	W 1-0	47.0	1383	1406	30.76%	26.79%	42.46%	-0.23	+5.9	9
2022-12-04	Turan Tovuz	W 2-1	47.8	1514	1381	56.92%	23.35%	19.72%	+0.83	+2.9	26
2022-12-04	@ Zira	L 1-2	47.8	1381	1514	19.72%	23.35%	56.92%	-0.83	-2.9	16
2022-12-13	Gabala	W 1-0	48.8	1813	1518	74.61%	14.97%	10.42%	+1.72	+1.5	47
2022-12-13	@ Qarabag	L 0-1	48.8	1518	1813	10.42%	14.97%	74.61%	-1.72	-1.5	24
2022-12-13	Zira	D 0-0	54.7	1384	1517	23.03%	24.93%	52.03%	-0.62	+1.0	13
2022-12-13	@ Shamakhi	D 0-0	54.7	1517	1384	52.03%	24.93%	23.03%	+0.62	-1.0	27
2022-12-14	Sabah	D 2-2	71.8	1400	1633	15.53%	20.36%	64.10%	-1.16	+1.1	11
2022-12-14	@ Kapaz	D 2-2	71.8	1633	1400	64.10%	20.36%	15.53%	+1.16	-1.1	40
2022-12-14	Sabail	W 2-0	36.7	1389	1310	50.11%	25.44%	24.45%	+0.54	+7.2	12
2022-12-14	@ Sumgayit	L 0-2	36.7	1310	1389	24.45%	25.44%	50.11%	-0.54	-7.2	10
2022-12-15	Neftchi Baku	L 0-1	43.1	1378	1607	15.76%	20.55%	63.69%	-1.14	-2.4	16
2022-12-15	@ Turan Tovuz	W 1-0	43.1	1607	1378	63.69%	20.55%	15.76%	+1.14	+2.4	35
2022-12-23	Sabah	L 0-6	40.4	1396	1632	15.37%	20.22%	64.41%	-1.18	-12.4	12
2022-12-23	@ Sumgayit	W 6-0	40.4	1632	1396	64.41%	20.22%	15.37%	+1.18	+12.4	43
2022-12-23	Shamakhi	W 3-0	37.6	1609	1385	67.43%	18.76%	13.81%	+1.33	+5.7	38
2022-12-23	@ Neftchi Baku	L 0-3	37.6	1385	1609	13.81%	18.76%	67.43%	-1.33	-5.7	13
2022-12-24	Qarabag	L 0-3	35.8	1303	1815	4.77%	7.40%	87.83%	-2.68	-1.6	10
2022-12-24	@ Sabail	W 3-0	35.8	1815	1303	87.83%	7.40%	4.77%	+2.68	+1.6	50
2022-12-24	Turan Tovuz	D 0-0	55.0	1516	1376	57.89%	23.00%	19.12%	+0.87	-1.3	25
2022-12-24	@ Gabala	D 0-0	55.0	1376	1516	19.12%	23.00%	57.89%	-0.87	+1.3	17
2022-12-25	Kapaz	D 2-2	66.4	1516	1401	54.65%	24.14%	21.21%	+0.73	-0.8	28
2022-12-25	@ Zira	D 2-2	66.4	1401	1516	21.21%	24.14%	54.65%	-0.73	+0.7	12
2023-01-24	Gabala	D 2-2	66.0	1402	1515	24.94%	25.59%	49.46%	-0.51	+0.5	13
2023-01-24	@ Kapaz	D 2-2	66.0	1515	1402	49.46%	25.59%	24.94%	+0.51	-0.5	26
2023-01-25	Qarabag	L 2-3	55.1	1377	1816	6.67%	10.06%	83.27%	-2.29	-0.8	17
2023-01-25	@ Turan Tovuz	W 3-2	55.1	1816	1377	83.27%	10.06%	6.67%	+2.29	+0.8	53
2023-01-25	Sumgayit	W 3-1	45.2	1515	1384	56.71%	23.43%	19.86%	+0.82	+5.1	31
2023-01-25	@ Zira	L 1-3	45.2	1384	1515	19.86%	23.43%	56.71%	-0.82	-5.1	12
2023-01-26	Neftchi Baku	W 2-0	54.3	1644	1615	43.30%	26.69%	30.01%	+0.26	+8.6	46
2023-01-26	@ Sabah	L 0-2	54.3	1615	1644	30.01%	26.69%	43.30%	-0.26	-8.6	38
2023-01-26	Sabail	W 2-1	45.3	1380	1301	49.98%	25.47%	24.55%	+0.53	+3.6	16
2023-01-26	@ Shamakhi	L 1-2	45.3	1301	1380	24.55%	25.47%	49.98%	-0.53	-3.6	10
2023-01-30	Turan Tovuz	W 2-1	49.5	1379	1376	39.60%	27.02%	33.39%	+0.12	+4.7	15
2023-01-30	@ Sumgayit	L 1-2	49.5	1376	1379	33.39%	27.02%	39.60%	-0.12	-4.7	17
2023-01-31	Kapaz	W 1-0	47.0	1298	1403	25.76%	25.83%	48.41%	-0.47	+6.6	13
2023-01-31	@ Sabail	L 0-1	47.0	1403	1298	48.41%	25.83%	25.76%	+0.47	-6.6	13
2023-01-31	Shamakhi	W 3-1	46.5	1817	1383	85.51%	8.76%	5.73%	+2.47	+1.2	56
2023-01-31	@ Qarabag	L 1-3	46.5	1383	1817	5.73%	8.76%	85.51%	-2.47	-1.2	16
2023-02-01	Sabah	L 0-3	47.7	1514	1653	22.52%	24.73%	52.76%	-0.65	-9.7	26
2023-02-01	@ Gabala	W 3-0	47.7	1653	1514	52.76%	24.73%	22.52%	+0.65	+9.7	49
2023-02-01	Zira	W 1-0	51.9	1606	1520	51.06%	25.20%	23.75%	+0.58	+3.7	41
2023-02-01	@ Neftchi Baku	L 0-1	51.9	1520	1606	23.75%	25.20%	51.06%	-0.58	-3.7	31
2023-02-04	Qarabag	D 1-1	74.0	1396	1818	7.19%	10.78%	82.03%	-2.20	+2.2	14
2023-02-04	@ Kapaz	D 1-1	74.0	1818	1396	82.03%	10.78%	7.19%	+2.20	-2.2	57
2023-02-05	Gabala	D 2-2	69.4	1516	1505	40.87%	26.93%	32.19%	+0.17	-0.2	32
2023-02-05	@ Zira	D 2-2	69.4	1505	1516	32.19%	26.93%	40.87%	-0.17	+0.2	27
2023-02-05	Sumgayit	W 2-0	39.3	1610	1384	67.69%	18.62%	13.68%	+1.34	+3.9	44
2023-02-05	@ Neftchi Baku	L 0-2	39.3	1384	1610	13.68%	18.62%	67.69%	-1.34	-3.9	15
2023-02-06	Sabail	W 4-0	32.4	1662	1304	80.04%	11.92%	8.04%	+2.06	+3.9	52
2023-02-06	@ Sabah	L 0-4	32.4	1304	1662	8.04%	11.92%	80.04%	-2.06	-3.9	13
2023-02-06	Turan Tovuz	L 0-1	45.8	1382	1372	40.68%	26.95%	32.37%	+0.16	-5.7	16
2023-02-06	@ Shamakhi	W 1-0	45.8	1372	1382	32.37%	26.95%	40.68%	-0.16	+5.7	20
2023-02-10	Neftchi Baku	D 0-0	62.3	1505	1614	25.32%	25.71%	48.97%	-0.49	+0.8	28
2023-02-10	@ Gabala	D 0-0	62.3	1614	1505	48.97%	25.71%	25.32%	+0.49	-0.8	45
2023-02-11	Kapaz	W 2-0	42.1	1377	1398	36.21%	27.10%	36.69%	-0.01	+10.0	23
2023-02-11	@ Turan Tovuz	L 0-2	42.1	1398	1377	36.69%	27.10%	36.21%	+0.01	-10.0	14
2023-02-11	Sabah	D 1-1	73.3	1816	1666	59.02%	22.56%	18.42%	+0.92	-1.2	58
2023-02-11	@ Qarabag	D 1-1	73.3	1666	1816	18.42%	22.56%	59.02%	-0.92	+1.2	53
2023-02-12	Shamakhi	W 1-0	43.6	1380	1376	39.72%	27.01%	33.27%	+0.12	+4.9	18
2023-02-12	@ Sumgayit	L 0-1	43.6	1376	1380	33.27%	27.01%	39.72%	-0.12	-4.9	16
2023-02-12	Zira	W 2-0	48.9	1300	1516	16.57%	21.22%	62.21%	-1.07	+15.1	16
2023-02-12	@ Sabail	L 0-2	48.9	1516	1300	62.21%	21.22%	16.57%	+1.07	-15.1	32
2023-02-17	Shamakhi	W 3-2	54.2	1388	1371	41.64%	26.87%	31.49%	+0.20	+4.2	17
2023-02-17	@ Kapaz	L 2-3	54.2	1371	1388	31.49%	26.87%	41.64%	-0.20	-4.2	16
2023-02-18	Sabail	W 3-0	33.0	1613	1316	74.82%	14.85%	10.33%	+1.73	+4.0	48
2023-02-18	@ Neftchi Baku	L 0-3	33.0	1316	1613	10.33%	14.85%	74.82%	-1.73	-4.0	16
2023-02-18	Sumgayit	W 2-1	48.1	1506	1385	55.48%	23.86%	20.65%	+0.76	+3.1	31
2023-02-18	@ Gabala	L 1-2	48.1	1385	1506	20.65%	23.86%	55.48%	-0.76	-3.1	18
2023-02-19	Qarabag	L 0-1	49.3	1501	1815	11.31%	16.03%	72.66%	-1.60	-1.6	32
2023-02-19	@ Zira	W 1-0	49.3	1815	1501	72.66%	16.03%	11.31%	+1.60	+1.6	61
2023-02-19	Turan Tovuz	L 0-2	58.5	1667	1387	73.13%	15.78%	11.09%	+1.63	-16.9	53
2023-02-19	@ Sabah	W 2-0	58.5	1387	1667	11.09%	15.78%	73.13%	-1.63	+16.9	26
2023-02-24	Gabala	D 2-2	64.1	1311	1509	17.81%	22.14%	60.05%	-0.97	+1.0	17
2023-02-24	@ Sabail	D 2-2	64.1	1509	1311	60.05%	22.14%	17.81%	+0.97	-1.0	32
2023-02-24	Zira	L 0-2	42.2	1404	1500	26.80%	26.10%	47.11%	-0.41	-7.8	26
2023-02-24	@ Turan Tovuz	W 2-0	42.2	1500	1404	47.11%	26.10%	26.80%	+0.41	+7.8	35
2023-02-25	Kapaz	L 1-2	51.2	1382	1393	37.65%	27.09%	35.26%	+0.05	-5.1	18
2023-02-25	@ Sumgayit	W 2-1	51.2	1393	1382	35.26%	27.09%	37.65%	-0.05	+5.1	20
2023-02-25	Sabah	W 2-1	65.5	1367	1651	12.74%	17.65%	69.61%	-1.44	+8.2	19
2023-02-25	@ Shamakhi	L 1-2	65.5	1651	1367	69.61%	17.65%	12.74%	+1.44	-8.2	53
2023-02-27	Neftchi Baku	D 1-1	73.8	1817	1617	64.71%	20.08%	15.21%	+1.19	-1.5	62
2023-02-27	@ Qarabag	D 1-1	73.8	1617	1817	15.21%	20.08%	64.71%	-1.19	+1.5	49
2023-03-03	Shamakhi	D 2-2	65.5	1507	1375	56.86%	23.38%	19.76%	+0.83	-0.8	36
2023-03-03	@ Zira	D 2-2	65.5	1375	1507	19.76%	23.38%	56.86%	-0.83	+0.8	20
2023-03-04	Kapaz	W 2-0	40.4	1642	1398	69.59%	17.66%	12.75%	+1.44	+3.6	56
2023-03-04	@ Sabah	L 0-2	40.4	1398	1642	12.75%	17.66%	69.59%	-1.44	-3.6	20
2023-03-04	Sumgayit	L 0-1	41.7	1312	1377	30.44%	26.75%	42.81%	-0.24	-4.6	17
2023-03-04	@ Sabail	W 1-0	41.7	1377	1312	42.81%	26.75%	30.44%	+0.24	+4.6	21
2023-03-05	Qarabag	L 1-3	52.6	1508	1815	11.61%	16.38%	72.01%	-1.57	-2.8	32
2023-03-05	@ Gabala	W 3-1	52.6	1815	1508	72.01%	16.38%	11.61%	+1.57	+2.8	65
2023-03-05	Turan Tovuz	W 4-0	38.1	1619	1396	67.25%	18.85%	13.91%	+1.32	+7.5	52
2023-03-05	@ Neftchi Baku	L 0-4	38.1	1396	1619	13.91%	18.85%	67.25%	-1.32	-7.5	26
2023-03-10	Sumgayit	W 4-0	37.2	1646	1381	71.64%	16.58%	11.78%	+1.55	+6.2	59
2023-03-10	@ Sabah	L 0-4	37.2	1381	1646	11.78%	16.58%	71.64%	-1.55	-6.2	21
2023-03-10	Zira	D 1-1	59.4	1394	1507	24.99%	25.61%	49.40%	-0.51	+0.7	21
2023-03-10	@ Kapaz	D 1-1	59.4	1507	1394	49.40%	25.61%	24.99%	+0.51	-0.7	37
2023-03-11	Gabala	D 1-1	59.2	1389	1505	24.61%	25.49%	49.90%	-0.53	+0.7	27
2023-03-11	@ Turan Tovuz	D 1-1	59.2	1505	1389	49.90%	25.49%	24.61%	+0.53	-0.7	33
2023-03-11	Sabail	W 3-0	35.5	1818	1308	89.72%	6.29%	3.99%	+2.88	+1.3	68
2023-03-11	@ Qarabag	L 0-3	35.5	1308	1818	3.99%	6.29%	89.72%	-2.88	-1.3	17
2023-03-12	Neftchi Baku	L 0-1	43.0	1376	1626	14.49%	19.42%	66.09%	-1.26	-2.2	20
2023-03-12	@ Shamakhi	W 1-0	43.0	1626	1376	66.09%	19.42%	14.49%	+1.26	+2.2	55
2023-03-15	Qarabag	L 0-6	39.8	1375	1819	6.53%	9.87%	83.61%	-2.31	-4.4	21
2023-03-15	@ Sumgayit	W 6-0	39.8	1819	1375	83.61%	9.87%	6.53%	+2.31	+4.4	71
2023-03-15	Sabah	L 0-2	49.0	1506	1652	21.79%	24.41%	53.80%	-0.69	-6.5	37
2023-03-15	@ Zira	W 2-0	49.0	1652	1506	53.80%	24.41%	21.79%	+0.69	+6.5	62
2023-03-16	Kapaz	D 2-2	72.1	1629	1395	68.46%	18.24%	13.30%	+1.38	-1.3	56
2023-03-16	@ Neftchi Baku	D 2-2	72.1	1395	1629	13.30%	18.24%	68.46%	-1.38	+1.3	22
2023-03-16	Turan Tovuz	D 1-1	54.6	1307	1390	28.16%	26.39%	45.46%	-0.35	+0.5	18
2023-03-16	@ Sabail	D 1-1	54.6	1390	1307	45.46%	26.39%	28.16%	+0.35	-0.5	28
2023-03-17	Shamakhi	W 2-0	38.5	1504	1374	56.65%	23.45%	19.89%	+0.82	+5.9	36
2023-03-17	@ Gabala	L 0-2	38.5	1374	1504	19.89%	23.45%	56.65%	-0.82	-5.9	20
2023-03-31	Sumgayit	L 2-3	57.3	1389	1371	41.86%	26.85%	31.29%	+0.21	-5.2	28
2023-03-31	@ Turan Tovuz	W 3-2	57.3	1371	1389	31.29%	26.85%	41.86%	-0.21	+5.2	24
2023-04-01	Neftchi Baku	D 1-1	67.5	1499	1627	23.45%	25.09%	51.45%	-0.59	+0.8	38
2023-04-01	@ Zira	D 1-1	67.5	1627	1499	51.45%	25.09%	23.45%	+0.59	-0.8	57
2023-04-01	Sabail	W 1-0	39.3	1396	1307	51.41%	25.10%	23.48%	+0.59	+3.7	25
2023-04-01	@ Kapaz	L 0-1	39.3	1307	1396	23.48%	25.10%	51.41%	-0.59	-3.7	18
2023-04-02	Gabala	W 3-2	61.8	1659	1510	58.82%	22.64%	18.54%	+0.91	+2.6	65
2023-04-02	@ Sabah	L 2-3	61.8	1510	1659	18.54%	22.64%	58.82%	-0.91	-2.6	36
2023-04-02	Qarabag	L 0-1	43.6	1368	1824	6.20%	9.41%	84.39%	-2.38	-0.8	20
2023-04-02	@ Shamakhi	W 1-0	43.6	1824	1368	84.39%	9.41%	6.20%	+2.38	+0.8	74
2023-04-07	Zira	W 2-1	56.9	1508	1500	40.28%	26.97%	32.74%	+0.15	+4.6	39
2023-04-07	@ Gabala	L 1-2	56.9	1500	1508	32.74%	26.97%	40.28%	-0.15	-4.6	38
2023-04-08	Neftchi Baku	L 0-4	37.9	1376	1627	14.47%	19.40%	66.13%	-1.26	-7.9	24
2023-04-08	@ Sumgayit	W 4-0	37.9	1627	1376	66.13%	19.40%	14.47%	+1.26	+7.9	60
2023-04-08	Sabah	W 2-1	64.5	1303	1661	9.46%	13.77%	76.76%	-1.84	+8.7	21
2023-04-08	@ Sabail	L 1-2	64.5	1661	1303	76.76%	13.77%	9.46%	+1.84	-8.7	65
2023-04-09	Kapaz	W 3-1	47.2	1824	1400	84.89%	9.12%	5.99%	+2.42	+1.2	77
2023-04-09	@ Qarabag	L 1-3	47.2	1400	1824	5.99%	9.12%	84.89%	-2.42	-1.2	25
2023-04-09	Shamakhi	D 1-1	55.2	1384	1367	41.60%	26.87%	31.53%	+0.20	-0.3	29
2023-04-09	@ Turan Tovuz	D 1-1	55.2	1367	1384	31.53%	26.87%	41.60%	-0.20	+0.3	21
2023-04-14	Gabala	L 1-2	67.5	1634	1512	55.62%	23.81%	20.56%	+0.77	-6.9	60
2023-04-14	@ Neftchi Baku	W 2-1	67.5	1512	1634	20.56%	23.81%	55.62%	-0.77	+6.9	42
2023-04-14	Sabail	W 3-1	40.8	1496	1312	62.94%	20.89%	16.17%	+1.11	+4.1	41
2023-04-14	@ Zira	L 1-3	40.8	1312	1496	16.17%	20.89%	62.94%	-1.11	-4.1	21
2023-04-15	Turan Tovuz	W 1-0	43.6	1399	1384	41.33%	26.89%	31.78%	+0.19	+4.8	28
2023-04-15	@ Kapaz	L 0-1	43.6	1384	1399	31.78%	26.89%	41.33%	-0.19	-4.8	29
2023-04-16	Qarabag	W 2-1	72.3	1652	1826	19.58%	23.27%	57.15%	-0.84	+7.0	68
2023-04-16	@ Sabah	L 1-2	72.3	1826	1652	57.15%	23.27%	19.58%	+0.84	-7.1	77
2023-04-16	Sumgayit	D 0-0	50.1	1367	1368	39.15%	27.04%	33.81%	+0.10	-0.2	22
2023-04-16	@ Shamakhi	D 0-0	50.1	1368	1367	33.81%	27.04%	39.15%	-0.10	+0.2	25
2023-04-21	Kapaz	D 1-1	55.5	1367	1403	34.10%	27.05%	38.85%	-0.09	+0.1	23
2023-04-21	@ Shamakhi	D 1-1	55.5	1403	1367	38.85%	27.05%	34.10%	+0.09	-0.1	29
2023-04-21	Zira	D 2-2	80.8	1819	1500	76.73%	13.79%	9.48%	+1.84	-1.5	78
2023-04-21	@ Qarabag	D 2-2	80.8	1500	1819	9.48%	13.79%	76.73%	-1.84	+1.5	42
2023-04-22	Neftchi Baku	D 1-1	63.5	1308	1628	11.05%	15.73%	73.22%	-1.64	+1.9	22
2023-04-22	@ Sabail	D 1-1	63.5	1628	1308	73.22%	15.73%	11.05%	+1.64	-1.9	61
2023-04-22	Sabah	L 0-2	40.4	1379	1660	12.89%	17.80%	69.32%	-1.42	-3.6	29
2023-04-22	@ Turan Tovuz	W 2-0	40.4	1660	1379	69.32%	17.80%	12.89%	+1.42	+3.6	71
2023-04-23	Gabala	L 2-3	53.5	1368	1519	21.37%	24.22%	54.41%	-0.72	-3.0	25
2023-04-23	@ Sumgayit	W 3-2	53.5	1519	1368	54.41%	24.22%	21.37%	+0.72	+3.0	45
2023-04-29	Shamakhi	W 1-0	41.5	1663	1367	74.63%	14.96%	10.41%	+1.72	+1.5	74
2023-04-29	@ Sabah	L 0-1	41.5	1367	1663	10.41%	14.96%	74.63%	-1.72	-1.5	23
2023-04-29	Sumgayit	L 0-1	47.1	1403	1365	44.58%	26.52%	28.90%	+0.31	-6.2	29
2023-04-29	@ Kapaz	W 1-0	47.1	1365	1403	28.90%	26.52%	44.58%	-0.31	+6.2	28
2023-05-01	Sabail	W 4-2	44.2	1522	1310	66.15%	19.39%	14.46%	+1.26	+3.2	48
2023-05-01	@ Gabala	L 2-4	44.2	1310	1522	14.46%	19.39%	66.15%	-1.26	-3.2	22
2023-05-01	Turan Tovuz	L 1-3	55.4	1501	1375	56.09%	23.65%	20.26%	+0.79	-12.0	42
2023-05-01	@ Zira	W 3-1	55.4	1375	1501	20.26%	23.65%	56.09%	-0.79	+12.0	32
2023-05-02	Qarabag	L 2-4	61.1	1626	1817	18.22%	22.42%	59.35%	-0.94	-4.2	61
2023-05-02	@ Neftchi Baku	W 4-2	61.1	1817	1626	59.35%	22.42%	18.22%	+0.94	+4.2	81
2023-05-05	Sabah	L 0-3	39.9	1397	1665	13.56%	18.50%	67.95%	-1.35	-5.6	29
2023-05-05	@ Kapaz	W 3-0	39.9	1665	1397	67.95%	18.50%	13.56%	+1.35	+5.6	77
2023-05-06	Zira	L 0-3	37.8	1366	1489	23.91%	25.26%	50.83%	-0.57	-10.3	23
2023-05-06	@ Shamakhi	W 3-0	37.8	1489	1366	50.83%	25.26%	23.91%	+0.57	+10.3	45
2023-05-07	Neftchi Baku	W 4-0	53.4	1387	1621	15.43%	20.27%	64.29%	-1.17	+29.3	35
2023-05-07	@ Turan Tovuz	L 0-4	53.4	1621	1387	64.29%	20.27%	15.43%	+1.17	-29.3	61
2023-05-07	Sabail	L 1-3	49.7	1371	1307	48.17%	25.88%	25.95%	+0.46	-10.7	28
2023-05-07	@ Sumgayit	W 3-1	49.7	1307	1371	25.95%	25.88%	48.17%	-0.46	+10.7	25
2023-05-08	Gabala	W 3-0	44.2	1821	1525	74.63%	14.96%	10.41%	+1.72	+4.0	84
2023-05-08	@ Qarabag	L 0-3	44.2	1525	1821	10.41%	14.96%	74.63%	-1.72	-4.1	48
2023-05-12	Kapaz	D 1-1	59.4	1499	1391	53.84%	24.40%	21.76%	+0.69	-1.0	46
2023-05-12	@ Zira	D 1-1	59.4	1391	1499	21.76%	24.40%	53.84%	-0.69	+1.0	30
2023-05-13	Qarabag	L 0-3	36.6	1317	1825	4.86%	7.53%	87.61%	-2.66	-1.6	25
2023-05-13	@ Sabail	W 3-0	36.6	1825	1317	87.61%	7.53%	4.86%	+2.66	+1.6	87
2023-05-13	Turan Tovuz	L 1-2	59.8	1521	1417	53.43%	24.53%	22.05%	+0.68	-6.7	48
2023-05-13	@ Gabala	W 2-1	59.8	1417	1521	22.05%	24.53%	53.43%	-0.68	+6.7	38
2023-05-14	Shamakhi	D 1-1	63.3	1592	1356	68.74%	18.09%	13.16%	+1.39	-1.7	62
2023-05-14	@ Neftchi Baku	D 1-1	63.3	1356	1592	13.16%	18.09%	68.74%	-1.39	+1.7	24
2023-05-17	Sabah	L 0-4	37.1	1361	1670	11.49%	16.25%	72.26%	-1.58	-6.0	28
2023-05-17	@ Sumgayit	W 4-0	37.1	1670	1361	72.26%	16.25%	11.49%	+1.58	+6.0	80
2023-05-21	Neftchi Baku	L 1-3	47.2	1392	1590	17.76%	22.11%	60.14%	-0.97	-4.5	30
2023-05-21	@ Kapaz	W 3-1	47.2	1590	1392	60.14%	22.11%	17.76%	+0.97	+4.5	65
2023-05-22	Gabala	D 0-0	54.1	1357	1515	20.85%	23.96%	55.19%	-0.75	+1.2	25
2023-05-22	@ Shamakhi	D 0-0	54.1	1515	1357	55.19%	23.96%	20.85%	+0.75	-1.2	49
2023-05-22	Sabail	D 2-2	61.8	1423	1316	53.80%	24.41%	21.79%	+0.69	-0.7	39
2023-05-22	@ Turan Tovuz	D 2-2	61.8	1316	1423	21.79%	24.41%	53.80%	-0.69	+0.7	26
2023-05-22	Sumgayit	L 1-2	73.2	1827	1355	87.78%	7.43%	4.79%	+2.68	-9.4	87
2023-05-22	@ Qarabag	W 2-1	73.2	1355	1827	4.79%	7.43%	87.78%	-2.68	+9.4	31
2023-05-22	Zira	D 0-0	65.2	1676	1498	62.28%	21.19%	16.53%	+1.07	-1.6	81
2023-05-22	@ Sabah	D 0-0	65.2	1498	1676	16.53%	21.19%	62.28%	-1.07	+1.6	47
2023-05-27	Kapaz	D 1-1	60.0	1514	1388	56.06%	23.66%	20.28%	+0.79	-1.1	50
2023-05-27	@ Gabala	D 1-1	60.0	1388	1514	20.28%	23.66%	56.06%	-0.79	+1.1	31
2023-05-27	Shamakhi	W 1-0	44.4	1316	1358	33.28%	27.01%	39.71%	-0.12	+5.6	29
2023-05-27	@ Sabail	L 0-1	44.4	1358	1316	39.71%	27.01%	33.28%	+0.12	-5.6	25
2023-05-27	Zira	L 0-3	37.6	1364	1500	22.70%	24.80%	52.50%	-0.64	-9.8	31
2023-05-27	@ Sumgayit	W 3-0	37.6	1500	1364	52.50%	24.80%	22.70%	+0.64	+9.8	50
2023-05-28	Sabah	W 1-0	61.9	1595	1675	28.56%	26.46%	44.98%	-0.33	+6.2	68
2023-05-28	@ Neftchi Baku	L 0-1	61.9	1675	1595	44.98%	26.46%	28.56%	+0.33	-6.2	81
2023-05-28	Turan Tovuz	W 3-1	48.1	1817	1423	82.85%	10.30%	6.85%	+2.26	+1.5	90
2023-05-28	@ Qarabag	L 1-3	48.1	1423	1817	6.85%	10.30%	82.85%	-2.26	-1.5	39

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2023-05-22	4.79%	Sumgayit	1355	2	@ Qarabag	1827	1
2	2023-04-08	9.46%	@ Sabail	1303	2	Sabah	1661	1
3	2023-02-19	11.09%	Turan Tovuz	1387	2	@ Sabah	1667	0
4	2023-02-25	12.74%	@ Shamakhi	1367	2	Sabah	1651	1
5	2023-05-07	15.43%	@ Turan Tovuz	1387	4	Neftchi Baku	1621	0
6	2023-02-12	16.57%	@ Sabail	1300	2	Zira	1516	0
7	2023-04-16	19.58%	@ Sabah	1652	2	Qarabag	1826	1
8	2023-05-01	20.26%	Turan Tovuz	1375	3	@ Zira	1501	1
9	2023-04-14	20.56%	Gabala	1512	2	@ Neftchi Baku	1634	1
10	2023-05-13	22.05%	Turan Tovuz	1417	2	@ Gabala	1521	1
11	2022-08-27	24.36%	@ Sabail	1316	4	Kapaz	1435	1
12	2023-01-31	25.76%	@ Sabail	1298	1	Kapaz	1403	0
13	2023-05-07	25.95%	Sabail	1307	3	@ Sumgayit	1371	1
14	2022-10-08	28.05%	@ Sabail	1325	1	Sumgayit	1409	0
15	2023-05-28	28.56%	@ Neftchi Baku	1595	1	Sabah	1675	0
16	2023-04-29	28.90%	Sumgayit	1365	1	@ Kapaz	1403	0
17	2022-11-04	29.92%	Shamakhi	1365	3	@ Turan Tovuz	1395	1
18	2022-12-04	30.76%	Sumgayit	1383	1	@ Kapaz	1406	0
19	2023-03-31	31.29%	Sumgayit	1371	3	@ Turan Tovuz	1389	2
20	2023-02-06	32.37%	Turan Tovuz	1372	1	@ Shamakhi	1382	0
21	2023-05-27	33.28%	@ Sabail	1316	1	Shamakhi	1358	0
22	2022-09-03	34.15%	Turan Tovuz	1385	1	@ Shamakhi	1382	0
23	2023-02-25	35.26%	Kapaz	1393	2	@ Sumgayit	1382	1
24	2022-09-09	35.33%	@ Turan Tovuz	1390	2	Kapaz	1418	0
25	2023-02-11	36.21%	@ Turan Tovuz	1377	2	Kapaz	1398	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-05-07	29.30	@ Turan Tovuz	4	1387	15.43%	Neftchi Baku	0	1621	64.29%	20.27%
2	2023-02-19	16.91	Turan Tovuz	2	1387	11.09%	@ Sabah	0	1667	73.13%	15.78%
3	2022-08-27	15.61	@ Sabail	4	1316	24.36%	Kapaz	1	1435	50.23%	25.41%
4	2023-02-12	15.07	@ Sabail	2	1300	16.57%	Zira	0	1516	62.21%	21.22%
5	2022-12-23	12.40	Sabah	6	1632	64.41%	@ Sumgayit	0	1396	15.37%	20.22%
6	2022-10-29	12.40	Neftchi Baku	3	1596	43.58%	@ Zira	0	1527	29.76%	26.65%
7	2023-05-01	12.04	Turan Tovuz	3	1375	20.26%	@ Zira	1	1501	56.09%	23.65%
8	2022-08-21	11.99	Gabala	3	1526	44.96%	@ Kapaz	0	1447	28.57%	26.46%
9	2022-10-29	11.02	@ Kapaz	3	1397	48.27%	Sabail	0	1332	25.87%	25.86%
10	2023-05-07	10.68	Sabail	3	1307	25.95%	@ Sumgayit	1	1371	48.17%	25.88%
11	2022-10-09	10.58	@ Sabah	5	1606	64.09%	Kapaz	0	1412	15.54%	20.37%
12	2022-12-02	10.50	Qarabag	4	1803	58.64%	@ Neftchi Baku	0	1617	18.65%	22.71%
13	2023-05-06	10.27	Zira	3	1489	50.83%	@ Shamakhi	0	1366	23.91%	25.26%
14	2022-09-09	10.19	@ Turan Tovuz	2	1390	35.33%	Kapaz	0	1418	37.58%	27.09%
15	2023-02-11	10.02	@ Turan Tovuz	2	1377	36.21%	Kapaz	0	1398	36.69%	27.10%
16	2022-11-04	9.84	Shamakhi	3	1365	29.92%	@ Turan Tovuz	1	1395	43.40%	26.68%
17	2023-05-27	9.79	Zira	3	1500	52.50%	@ Sumgayit	0	1364	22.70%	24.80%
18	2023-02-01	9.71	Sabah	3	1653	52.76%	@ Gabala	0	1514	22.52%	24.73%
19	2023-05-22	9.41	Sumgayit	2	1355	4.79%	@ Qarabag	1	1827	87.78%	7.43%
20	2022-09-18	9.24	Qarabag	7	1781	66.90%	@ Zira	1	1523	14.08%	19.02%
21	2022-08-28	8.90	Sabah	2	1595	41.77%	@ Gabala	0	1538	31.37%	26.85%
22	2023-04-08	8.72	@ Sabail	2	1303	9.46%	Sabah	1	1661	76.76%	13.77%
23	2023-01-26	8.59	@ Sabah	2	1644	43.30%	Neftchi Baku	0	1615	30.01%	26.69%
24	2023-02-25	8.18	@ Shamakhi	2	1367	12.74%	Sabah	1	1651	69.61%	17.65%
25	2022-08-07	8.15	@ Sabah	3	1574	58.24%	Sumgayit	0	1431	18.90%	22.86%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-04-21	80.8	@ Qarabag	2	1819	76.73%	Zira	2	1500	9.48%	13.79%
2	2023-02-04	74.0	@ Kapaz	1	1396	7.19%	Qarabag	1	1818	82.03%	10.78%
3	2023-02-27	73.8	@ Qarabag	1	1817	64.71%	Neftchi Baku	1	1617	15.21%	20.08%
4	2023-02-11	73.3	@ Qarabag	1	1816	59.02%	Sabah	1	1666	18.42%	22.56%
5	2023-05-22	73.2	Sumgayit	2	1355	4.79%	@ Qarabag	1	1827	87.78%	7.43%
6	2023-04-16	72.3	@ Sabah	2	1652	19.58%	Qarabag	1	1826	57.15%	23.27%
7	2023-03-16	72.1	@ Neftchi Baku	2	1629	68.46%	Kapaz	2	1395	13.30%	18.24%
8	2022-12-14	71.8	@ Kapaz	2	1400	15.53%	Sabah	2	1633	64.10%	20.36%
9	2022-11-05	70.3	@ Sumgayit	2	1389	16.34%	Neftchi Baku	2	1609	62.63%	21.03%
10	2022-10-23	69.7	Sabah	3	1620	36.39%	@ Neftchi Baku	2	1601	36.50%	27.10%
11	2022-11-28	69.6	@ Qarabag	0	1805	74.41%	Zira	0	1512	10.51%	15.08%
12	2023-02-05	69.4	@ Zira	2	1516	40.87%	Gabala	2	1505	32.19%	26.93%
13	2022-11-13	68.1	@ Sabah	0	1631	19.41%	Qarabag	0	1806	57.41%	23.17%
14	2023-04-01	67.5	@ Zira	1	1499	23.45%	Neftchi Baku	1	1627	51.45%	25.09%
15	2023-04-14	67.5	Gabala	2	1512	20.56%	@ Neftchi Baku	1	1634	55.62%	23.81%
16	2022-09-11	66.6	@ Qarabag	4	1779	62.19%	Sabah	3	1602	16.58%	21.23%
17	2022-12-25	66.4	@ Zira	2	1516	54.65%	Kapaz	2	1401	21.21%	24.14%
18	2022-12-03	66.1	@ Sabah	1	1635	70.35%	Shamakhi	1	1382	12.39%	17.26%
19	2023-01-24	66.0	@ Kapaz	2	1402	24.94%	Gabala	2	1515	49.46%	25.59%
20	2023-02-25	65.5	@ Shamakhi	2	1367	12.74%	Sabah	1	1651	69.61%	17.65%
21	2023-03-03	65.5	@ Zira	2	1507	56.86%	Shamakhi	2	1375	19.76%	23.38%
22	2023-05-22	65.2	@ Sabah	0	1676	62.28%	Zira	0	1498	16.53%	21.19%
23	2023-04-08	64.5	@ Sabail	2	1303	9.46%	Sabah	1	1661	76.76%	13.77%
24	2023-02-24	64.1	@ Sabail	2	1311	17.81%	Gabala	2	1509	60.05%	22.14%
25	2023-04-22	63.5	@ Sabail	1	1308	11.05%	Neftchi Baku	1	1628	73.22%	15.73%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-02-06	32.4	@ Sabah	4	1662	80.04%	Sabail	0	1304	8.04%	11.92%
2	2023-02-18	33.0	@ Neftchi Baku	3	1613	74.82%	Sabail	0	1316	10.33%	14.85%
3	2023-03-11	35.5	@ Qarabag	3	1818	89.72%	Sabail	0	1308	3.99%	6.29%
4	2022-09-16	35.6	@ Neftchi Baku	2	1598	71.88%	Sabail	0	1331	11.67%	16.45%
5	2022-10-29	35.8	@ Kapaz	3	1397	48.27%	Sabail	0	1332	25.87%	25.86%
6	2022-12-24	35.8	Qarabag	3	1815	87.83%	@ Sabail	0	1303	4.77%	7.40%
7	2022-11-06	36.3	Sabah	2	1628	71.99%	@ Sabail	0	1321	11.62%	16.39%
8	2023-05-13	36.6	Qarabag	3	1825	87.61%	@ Sabail	0	1317	4.86%	7.53%
9	2022-12-14	36.7	@ Sumgayit	2	1389	50.11%	Sabail	0	1310	24.45%	25.44%
10	2023-05-17	37.1	Sabah	4	1670	72.26%	@ Sumgayit	0	1361	11.49%	16.25%
11	2023-03-10	37.2	@ Sabah	4	1646	71.64%	Sumgayit	0	1381	11.78%	16.58%
12	2022-12-23	37.6	@ Neftchi Baku	3	1609	67.43%	Shamakhi	0	1385	13.81%	18.76%
13	2023-05-27	37.6	Zira	3	1500	52.50%	@ Sumgayit	0	1364	22.70%	24.80%
14	2023-05-06	37.8	Zira	3	1489	50.83%	@ Shamakhi	0	1366	23.91%	25.26%
15	2022-11-12	37.9	@ Zira	1	1509	63.85%	Sabail	0	1318	15.67%	20.48%
16	2023-04-08	37.9	Neftchi Baku	4	1627	66.13%	@ Sumgayit	0	1376	14.47%	19.40%
17	2023-03-05	38.1	@ Neftchi Baku	4	1619	67.25%	Turan Tovuz	0	1396	13.91%	18.85%
18	2022-08-27	38.3	@ Qarabag	4	1774	82.40%	Shamakhi	0	1385	7.04%	10.57%
19	2022-10-30	38.4	Qarabag	4	1800	82.72%	@ Shamakhi	0	1368	6.90%	10.38%
20	2023-03-17	38.5	@ Gabala	2	1504	56.65%	Shamakhi	0	1374	19.89%	23.45%
21	2022-10-20	39.0	@ Qarabag	3	1798	83.62%	Turan Tovuz	0	1392	6.52%	9.86%
22	2023-02-05	39.3	@ Neftchi Baku	2	1610	67.69%	Sumgayit	0	1384	13.68%	18.62%
23	2023-04-01	39.3	@ Kapaz	1	1396	51.41%	Sabail	0	1307	23.48%	25.10%
24	2022-10-09	39.5	@ Sabah	5	1606	64.09%	Kapaz	0	1412	15.54%	20.37%
25	2023-03-15	39.8	Qarabag	6	1819	83.61%	@ Sumgayit	0	1375	6.53%	9.87%