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2023-24 Azerbaijan Premier League Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Qarabag

83 points · 11th Title

Last Title: 2022-23

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sumgayit

13.30 points above expected

57 points · 43.70 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Gabala

10.78 points below expected

26 points · 36.78 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Qarabag Champion 36 26 5 5 83 97 37 +60 80.53 +2.47
2 Zira 36 16 10 10 58 33 22 +11 55.49 +2.51
3 Sabah 36 17 7 12 58 50 40 +10 60.39 -2.39
4 Sumgayit 36 15 12 9 57 37 38 -1 43.70 +13.30
5 Neftchi Baku 36 16 8 12 56 51 40 +11 60.44 -4.44
6 Turan Tovuz 36 13 9 14 48 53 53 0 47.41 +0.59
7 Sabail 36 11 9 16 42 50 60 -10 43.21 -1.21
8 Araz-Naxcivan 36 9 9 18 36 31 50 -19 35.48 +0.52
9 Kapaz 36 9 8 19 35 39 67 -28 36.91 -1.91
10 Gabala 36 7 5 24 26 30 64 -34 36.78 -10.78

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sumgayit 57 43.70 +13.30
2 Zira 58 55.49 +2.51
3 Qarabag 83 80.53 +2.47
4 Turan Tovuz 48 47.41 +0.59
5 Araz-Naxcivan 36 35.48 +0.52

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Gabala 26 36.78 -10.78
2 Neftchi Baku 56 60.44 -4.44
3 Sabah 58 60.39 -2.39
4 Kapaz 35 36.91 -1.91
5 Sabail 42 43.21 -1.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sabail 4 Aug 26 – Sep 24 1 in 217
2 Zira 4 Aug 5 – Aug 26 1 in 78
3 Gabala 3 May 6 – May 19 1 in 64
4 Qarabag 10 Nov 4 – Feb 3 1 in 56
5 Sabah 4 Apr 14 – May 5 1 in 38

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sabail 5 Apr 27 – May 25 1 in 58
2 Sabah 3 Aug 26 – Sep 17 1 in 34
3 Turan Tovuz 3 Nov 3 – Nov 25 1 in 22
4 Gabala 5 Feb 13 – Mar 9 1 in 19
5 Araz-Naxcivan 4 Mar 31 – Apr 21 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sabail 6 Aug 26 – Oct 7 1 in 60
2 Araz-Naxcivan 4 Oct 1 – Oct 30 1 in 39
3 Sumgayit 7 Dec 14 – Feb 18 1 in 33
4 Turan Tovuz 7 Jan 26 – Mar 10 1 in 30
5 Qarabag 18 Nov 4 – Apr 6 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zira 10 Nov 26 – Feb 18 1 in 230
2 Sabah 7 Aug 20 – Oct 7 1 in 197
3 Qarabag 3 Apr 14 – Apr 28 1 in 51
4 Kapaz 11 Aug 12 – Nov 4 1 in 45
5 Gabala 14 Jan 23 – Apr 28 1 in 38

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Qarabag 1832 83 +6 10 11.4 -1.4
Sabah 1619 58 +13 12 8.8 +3.2
Zira 1610 58 -1 9 8.3 +0.7
Sumgayit 1546 57 +12 10 6.9 +3.1
Neftchi Baku 1629 56 +19 9 7.9 +1.1
Turan Tovuz 1525 48 -12 6 6.1 -0.1
Sabail 1464 42 -47 0 5.6 -5.6
Araz-Naxcivan 1383 36 -8 4 3.9 +0.1
Kapaz 1435 35 -15 4 5.2 -1.2
Gabala 1425 26 +34 9 5.3 +3.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARA GAB KAP NB QAR SAB SAB SUM TT ZIR
Araz-Naxcivan —
2-1-1
4.67
1-0-3
5.42
2-1-1
3.06
1-1-2
1.71
1-1-2
2.99
0-2-2
4.57
0-2-2
4.66
0-0-4
4.14
2-1-1
3.40
Gabala
1-1-2
6.38
 —
1-0-3
5.78
0-0-4
3.41
0-1-3
1.93
2-0-2
3.12
1-0-3
4.67
0-1-3
5.03
1-1-2
4.07
1-1-2
3.63
Kapaz
3-0-1
5.63
3-0-1
5.26
 —
1-1-2
3.48
0-1-3
1.82
0-1-3
3.13
0-2-2
5.00
1-2-1
4.54
1-0-3
4.42
0-1-3
3.70
Neftchi Baku
1-1-2
8.07
4-0-0
7.69
2-1-1
7.63
 —
0-0-4
3.14
0-2-2
5.38
3-1-0
7.32
1-1-2
7.26
3-1-0
6.70
2-1-1
5.86
Qarabag
2-1-1
9.63
3-1-0
9.38
3-1-0
9.48
4-0-0
7.99
 —
2-1-1
7.90
3-0-1
9.21
3-0-1
9.02
3-1-0
8.81
3-0-1
8.47
Sabah
2-1-1
8.15
2-0-2
8.01
3-1-0
8.00
2-2-0
5.66
1-1-2
3.22
 —
2-1-1
7.29
3-0-1
7.20
1-1-2
6.90
1-0-3
6.36
Sabail
2-2-0
6.48
3-0-1
6.39
2-2-0
6.05
0-1-3
3.76
1-0-3
2.06
1-1-2
3.79
 —
0-0-4
5.41
2-1-1
4.66
0-2-2
3.87
Sumgayit
2-2-0
6.39
3-1-0
6.03
1-2-1
6.51
2-1-1
3.81
1-0-3
2.22
1-0-3
3.88
4-0-0
5.63
 —
1-3-0
4.98
0-3-1
4.28
Turan Tovuz
4-0-0
6.92
2-1-1
7.00
3-0-1
6.65
0-1-3
4.36
0-1-3
2.40
2-1-1
4.17
1-1-2
6.39
0-3-1
6.06
 —
1-1-2
4.57
Zira
1-1-2
7.71
2-1-1
7.47
3-1-0
7.38
1-1-2
5.18
1-0-3
2.70
3-0-1
4.69
2-2-0
7.21
1-3-0
6.78
2-1-1
6.47
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.61 +6.4
Allowed 0.57 -8.6
Differential 0.96 +6.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.11%11.94%5.83%3.33%1.39%0.83%29.44%
111.94%10.00%6.94%3.33%1.39%1.11%34.72%
25.83%6.94%5.00%1.67%0.56%—20.00%
33.33%3.33%1.67%1.67%0.28%—10.28%
41.39%1.39%0.56%0.28%——3.61%
5+0.83%1.11%————1.94%
Total29.44%34.72%20.00%10.28%3.61%1.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.31 +0.00
SD 1.25 1.25 1.87
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%13.89%8.33%——38.89%
111.11%16.67%5.56%8.33%——41.67%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3———————
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total19.44%38.89%25.00%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.39 -0.53
SD 0.90 0.99 1.50
CV 1.04 0.72 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%16.67%8.33%8.33%5.56%2.78%44.44%
18.33%5.56%16.67%2.78%2.78%—36.11%
25.56%—5.56%2.78%——13.89%
3——2.78%———2.78%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total19.44%22.22%33.33%13.89%8.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.78 -0.94
SD 0.97 1.31 1.84
CV 1.17 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%13.89%8.33%2.78%2.78%—33.33%
18.33%8.33%11.11%—2.78%8.33%38.89%
2—8.33%2.78%2.78%——13.89%
32.78%5.56%—5.56%——13.89%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%36.11%22.22%11.11%5.56%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.86 -0.78
SD 1.02 1.68 1.96
CV 0.95 0.90 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%5.56%——2.78%25.00%
113.89%16.67%5.56%2.78%2.78%—41.67%
28.33%—————8.33%
311.11%2.78%2.78%2.78%——19.44%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total36.11%36.11%16.67%5.56%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.11 +0.31
SD 1.30 1.21 1.91
CV 0.91 1.09 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
15.56%2.78%5.56%———13.89%
211.11%13.89%8.33%2.78%——36.11%
35.56%11.11%—2.78%——19.44%
42.78%2.78%2.78%2.78%——11.11%
5+5.56%8.33%————13.89%
Total30.56%44.44%16.67%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.69 1.03 +1.67
SD 1.64 0.91 1.91
CV 0.61 0.89 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%13.89%2.78%——33.33%
111.11%8.33%2.78%———22.22%
211.11%8.33%5.56%———25.00%
3—2.78%8.33%2.78%——13.89%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total30.56%33.33%30.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.11 +0.28
SD 1.32 0.92 1.72
CV 0.95 0.83 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%2.78%5.56%2.78%—25.00%
15.56%8.33%8.33%5.56%2.78%—30.56%
25.56%5.56%8.33%2.78%5.56%—27.78%
35.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%——13.89%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%22.22%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.67 -0.28
SD 1.10 1.31 1.78
CV 0.79 0.79 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%——2.78%30.56%
122.22%13.89%2.78%5.56%—2.78%47.22%
22.78%11.11%2.78%———16.67%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total41.67%36.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.06 -0.03
SD 1.00 1.39 1.72
CV 0.97 1.32 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%—5.56%2.78%—16.67%
18.33%11.11%11.11%5.56%2.78%—38.89%
28.33%5.56%8.33%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%5.56%——2.78%—13.89%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total30.56%25.00%19.44%16.67%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.03 1.32 1.84
CV 0.70 0.90 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%25.00%————41.67%
125.00%8.33%—2.78%——36.11%
2—11.11%2.78%———13.89%
32.78%2.78%————5.56%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total47.22%47.22%2.78%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 0.61 +0.31
SD 1.02 0.69 1.21
CV 1.12 1.13 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Qarabag 1832 83 80.53 +2.47 73.0% 66 69 75 80 84 92 94
Neftchi Baku 1629 56 60.44 -4.44 34.0% 43 48 53 60 66 74 83
Sabah 1619 58 60.39 -2.39 39.0% 42 49 55 61 66 71 80
Zira 1610 58 55.49 +2.51 67.0% 39 43 51 55 61 67 74
Sumgayit 1546 57 43.70 +13.30 93.0% 21 29 38 44 49 59 62
Turan Tovuz 1525 48 47.41 +0.59 63.0% 29 37 42 47 52 59 68
Sabail 1464 42 43.21 -1.21 44.0% 21 28 38 44 49 56 62
Kapaz 1435 35 36.91 -1.91 46.0% 14 25 32 36 42 49 57
Gabala 1425 26 36.78 -10.78 5.0% 22 25 31 37 41 46 54
Araz-Naxcivan 1383 36 35.48 +0.52 60.0% 22 24 30 35 41 46 55

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7.5% * Slight Edge: 7.5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.56%
Slight Edge
43.89%22.78%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 36.81 Elo pts.
194 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.26 goals
Neutral
-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.34 * Runaway: 0.34 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.1
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
96%
Qarabag, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.69/gm
Runaway
00.421/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.04 * Some Luck: 6.04 to 9.06 * Lucky: 9.06 to 12.09 * Wild Swing: 12.09 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.95 * Close: 0.95 to 1.43 * Off: 1.43 to 1.91 * Way Off: 1.91 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.80 points
As Expected
07.5519
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Close
01.192.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.00%
Sumgayit
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
Gabala
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.21 * Even: 0.21 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.15 * Moderate Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Strong Separation: 2.3 to 2.6 * Wide Separation: 2.6 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 73.5% * Slight Edge: 73.5% to 77.5% * Clear Edge: 77.5% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92% * Clear Edge: 92% to 97% * Strong Edge: 97% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59% * Some Drama: 59% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 67% * Very Frequent: 67% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14% * Occasional: 14% to 17.5% * Frequent: 17.5% to 21.5% * Very Frequent: 21.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Balanced
00.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 132.88
2.03
Coin-Flip Parity
12.152.63.25
Interquartile Edge
73%
Even
50%73.5%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
93%
Clear Edge
50%93%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Occasional
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.38
Very Even
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.57
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.55
Some Carryover
00.470.651
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.59
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.81
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.091
Well Within Noise
00.1250.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Qarabag96.00%4.00%————————
Zira—16.00%28.00%22.00%19.00%9.00%4.00%2.00%——
Sabah1.00%41.00%26.00%20.00%7.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%——
Sumgayit——7.00%10.00%15.00%18.00%19.00%13.00%11.00%7.00%
Neftchi Baku3.00%36.00%25.00%21.00%10.00%4.00%1.00%———
Turan Tovuz—3.00%8.00%16.00%19.00%23.00%11.00%11.00%6.00%3.00%
Sabail——5.00%7.00%18.00%17.00%20.00%16.00%10.00%7.00%
Araz-Naxcivan——1.00%1.00%2.00%10.00%12.00%17.00%31.00%26.00%
Kapaz———2.00%7.00%12.00%8.00%18.00%24.00%29.00%
Gabala———1.00%3.00%5.00%23.00%22.00%18.00%28.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Neftchi Baku 100% —
Qarabag 100% —
Sabah 100% —
Zira 100% —
Turan Tovuz 97.00% 3.00%
Sabail 93.00% 7.00%
Sumgayit 93.00% 7.00%
Araz-Naxcivan 74.00% 26.00%
Gabala 72.00% 28.00%
Kapaz 71.00% 29.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2023-08-04 Turan Tovuz L 0-340.6 1409 1513 28.93% 23.80% 47.27%-0.35 -18.4 0
2023-08-04 @ Araz-Naxcivan W 3-040.6 1513 1409 47.27% 23.80% 28.93%+0.35 +18.4 3
2023-08-05 Sumgayit L 1-449.7 1458 1467 41.98% 24.10% 33.92%+0.15 -20.8 0
2023-08-05 @ Sabail W 4-149.7 1467 1458 33.92% 24.10% 41.98%-0.15 +20.8 3
2023-08-05 Zira L 0-166.2 1735 1561 63.59% 20.90% 15.51%+1.09 -12.8 0
2023-08-05 @ Qarabag W 1-066.2 1561 1735 15.51% 20.90% 63.59%-1.09 +12.8 3
2023-08-06 Gabala W 5-048.0 1654 1563 54.73% 22.89% 22.38%+0.66 +23.7 3
2023-08-06 @ Sabah L 0-548.0 1563 1654 22.38% 22.89% 54.73%-0.66 -23.7 0
2023-08-06 Neftchi Baku W 1-058.5 1495 1613 27.34% 23.64% 49.02%-0.42 +10.2 3
2023-08-06 @ Kapaz L 0-158.5 1613 1495 49.02% 23.64% 27.34%+0.42 -10.2 0
2023-08-12 Gabala W 2-049.8 1390 1539 23.98% 23.18% 52.83%-0.58 +20.5 3
2023-08-12 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 0-249.8 1539 1390 52.83% 23.18% 23.98%+0.58 -20.5 0
2023-08-12 Kapaz W 1-050.1 1574 1505 52.09% 23.29% 24.62%+0.54 +5.9 6
2023-08-12 @ Zira L 0-150.1 1505 1574 24.62% 23.29% 52.09%-0.54 -5.8 3
2023-08-13 Turan Tovuz W 3-045.4 1722 1532 65.18% 20.42% 14.40%+1.17 +9.6 3
2023-08-13 @ Qarabag L 0-345.4 1532 1722 14.40% 20.42% 65.18%-1.17 -9.7 3
2023-08-14 Sabail D 1-166.0 1603 1438 62.68% 21.16% 16.17%+1.04 -2.2 1
2023-08-14 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-166.0 1438 1603 16.17% 21.16% 62.68%-1.04 +2.2 1
2023-08-18 Turan Tovuz L 0-249.6 1499 1522 39.95% 24.15% 35.91%+0.07 -16.3 3
2023-08-18 @ Kapaz W 2-049.6 1522 1499 35.91% 24.15% 39.95%-0.07 +16.3 6
2023-08-19 Sumgayit L 1-260.1 1518 1487 47.29% 23.80% 28.91%+0.35 -9.3 0
2023-08-19 @ Gabala W 2-160.1 1487 1518 28.91% 23.80% 47.29%-0.35 +9.3 6
2023-08-19 Zira L 1-253.7 1440 1580 24.90% 23.33% 51.77%-0.53 -5.6 1
2023-08-19 @ Sabail W 2-153.7 1580 1440 51.77% 23.33% 24.90%+0.53 +5.6 9
2023-08-20 Araz-Naxcivan W 2-150.7 1732 1411 75.76% 16.19% 8.05%+1.85 +1.8 6
2023-08-20 @ Qarabag L 1-250.7 1411 1732 8.05% 16.19% 75.76%-1.85 -1.8 3
2023-08-20 Neftchi Baku D 1-171.7 1677 1600 53.08% 23.15% 23.77%+0.59 -1.4 4
2023-08-20 @ Sabah D 1-171.7 1600 1677 23.77% 23.15% 53.08%-0.59 +1.4 2
2023-08-25 Sumgayit D 1-160.2 1409 1497 31.02% 23.96% 45.03%-0.26 +0.6 4
2023-08-25 @ Araz-Naxcivan D 1-160.2 1497 1409 45.03% 23.96% 31.02%+0.26 -0.6 7
2023-08-26 Sabah W 1-061.2 1585 1676 30.64% 23.93% 45.43%-0.28 +9.6 12
2023-08-26 @ Zira L 0-161.2 1676 1585 45.43% 23.93% 30.64%+0.28 -9.6 4
2023-08-26 Sabail L 1-358.0 1538 1434 56.21% 22.64% 21.15%+0.73 -18.8 6
2023-08-26 @ Turan Tovuz W 3-158.0 1434 1538 21.15% 22.64% 56.21%-0.73 +18.8 4
2023-08-27 Gabala W 2-047.0 1602 1509 54.93% 22.86% 22.21%+0.67 +10.1 5
2023-08-27 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-247.0 1509 1602 22.21% 22.86% 54.93%-0.67 -10.1 0
2023-08-27 Kapaz D 1-172.0 1734 1483 70.42% 18.54% 11.03%+1.48 -2.9 7
2023-08-27 @ Qarabag D 1-172.0 1483 1734 11.03% 18.54% 70.42%-1.48 +2.9 4
2023-09-01 Turan Tovuz L 0-358.4 1666 1519 60.87% 21.63% 17.50%+0.95 -33.8 4
2023-09-01 @ Sabah W 3-058.4 1519 1666 17.50% 21.63% 60.87%-0.95 +33.8 9
2023-09-02 Neftchi Baku L 0-152.1 1496 1612 27.60% 23.67% 48.73%-0.41 -6.4 7
2023-09-02 @ Sumgayit W 1-052.1 1612 1496 48.73% 23.67% 27.60%+0.41 +6.5 8
2023-09-02 Zira W 1-057.2 1499 1595 29.97% 23.88% 46.15%-0.30 +9.7 3
2023-09-02 @ Gabala L 0-157.2 1595 1499 46.15% 23.88% 29.97%+0.30 -9.7 12
2023-09-03 Araz-Naxcivan L 1-257.6 1486 1410 52.98% 23.16% 23.86%+0.58 -10.3 4
2023-09-03 @ Kapaz W 2-157.6 1410 1486 23.86% 23.16% 52.98%-0.58 +10.3 7
2023-09-03 Qarabag W 2-170.4 1453 1731 13.58% 20.02% 66.40%-1.24 +12.5 7
2023-09-03 @ Sabail L 1-270.4 1731 1453 66.40% 20.02% 13.58%+1.24 -12.5 7
2023-09-15 Sumgayit W 1-049.0 1585 1490 55.27% 22.80% 21.93%+0.68 +5.3 15
2023-09-15 @ Zira L 0-149.0 1490 1585 21.93% 22.80% 55.27%-0.68 -5.3 7
2023-09-16 Neftchi Baku W 1-058.5 1420 1618 19.31% 22.18% 58.51%-0.83 +11.9 10
2023-09-16 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 0-158.5 1618 1420 58.51% 22.18% 19.31%+0.83 -11.9 8
2023-09-16 Sabail L 0-346.0 1476 1466 44.47% 23.99% 31.54%+0.24 -25.8 4
2023-09-16 @ Kapaz W 3-046.0 1466 1476 31.54% 23.99% 44.47%-0.24 +25.8 10
2023-09-17 Gabala D 2-271.8 1553 1509 49.05% 23.64% 27.31%+0.42 -0.7 10
2023-09-17 @ Turan Tovuz D 2-271.8 1509 1553 27.31% 23.64% 49.05%-0.42 +0.7 4
2023-09-17 Sabah W 2-052.0 1718 1633 54.14% 22.99% 22.87%+0.63 +10.3 10
2023-09-17 @ Qarabag L 0-252.0 1633 1718 22.87% 22.99% 54.14%-0.63 -10.3 4
2023-09-23 Neftchi Baku D 1-169.9 1590 1606 40.91% 24.13% 34.97%+0.11 -0.3 16
2023-09-23 @ Zira D 1-169.9 1606 1590 34.97% 24.13% 40.91%-0.11 +0.3 9
2023-09-23 Turan Tovuz D 0-060.2 1484 1552 33.57% 24.09% 42.35%-0.16 +0.4 8
2023-09-23 @ Sumgayit D 0-060.2 1552 1484 42.35% 24.09% 33.57%+0.16 -0.4 11
2023-09-24 Araz-Naxcivan W 1-044.8 1491 1432 50.95% 23.43% 25.62%+0.50 +6.1 13
2023-09-24 @ Sabail L 0-144.8 1432 1491 25.62% 23.43% 50.95%-0.50 -6.1 10
2023-09-24 Kapaz D 2-273.0 1622 1450 63.42% 20.95% 15.63%+1.08 -1.7 5
2023-09-24 @ Sabah D 2-273.0 1450 1622 15.63% 20.95% 63.42%-1.08 +1.7 5
2023-09-25 Qarabag L 1-257.4 1509 1729 17.59% 21.66% 60.75%-0.94 -4.1 4
2023-09-25 @ Gabala W 2-157.4 1729 1509 60.75% 21.66% 17.59%+0.94 +4.1 13
2023-09-29 Sumgayit W 5-043.4 1733 1485 70.18% 18.64% 11.18%+1.47 +11.9 16
2023-09-29 @ Qarabag L 0-543.4 1485 1733 11.18% 18.64% 70.18%-1.47 -11.9 8
2023-09-30 Neftchi Baku L 0-156.0 1552 1607 35.41% 24.14% 40.45%-0.09 -7.9 11
2023-09-30 @ Turan Tovuz W 1-056.0 1607 1552 40.45% 24.14% 35.41%+0.09 +7.9 12
2023-09-30 Sabah D 2-273.7 1498 1620 26.76% 23.57% 49.67%-0.44 +0.8 14
2023-09-30 @ Sabail D 2-273.7 1620 1498 49.67% 23.57% 26.76%+0.44 -0.8 6
2023-10-01 Gabala L 0-149.1 1452 1505 35.51% 24.14% 40.35%-0.09 -7.9 5
2023-10-01 @ Kapaz W 1-049.1 1505 1452 40.35% 24.14% 35.51%+0.09 +7.9 7
2023-10-01 Zira W 1-056.7 1426 1590 22.39% 22.90% 54.71%-0.66 +11.2 13
2023-10-01 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 0-156.7 1590 1426 54.71% 22.90% 22.39%+0.66 -11.2 16
2023-10-06 Turan Tovuz W 2-158.5 1579 1544 47.80% 23.75% 28.44%+0.37 +6.2 19
2023-10-06 @ Zira L 1-258.5 1544 1579 28.44% 23.75% 47.80%-0.37 -6.2 11
2023-10-07 Araz-Naxcivan D 1-166.7 1620 1437 64.40% 20.66% 14.94%+1.13 -2.4 7
2023-10-07 @ Sabah D 1-166.7 1437 1620 14.94% 20.66% 64.40%-1.13 +2.4 14
2023-10-07 Sabail L 0-154.0 1513 1498 45.16% 23.95% 30.90%+0.27 -9.5 7
2023-10-07 @ Gabala W 1-054.0 1498 1513 30.90% 23.95% 45.16%-0.27 +9.5 17
2023-10-08 Kapaz W 1-045.7 1473 1444 47.07% 23.81% 29.12%+0.34 +6.7 11
2023-10-08 @ Sumgayit L 0-145.7 1444 1473 29.12% 23.81% 47.07%-0.34 -6.7 5
2023-10-08 Qarabag L 0-253.1 1614 1745 25.94% 23.47% 50.59%-0.48 -11.5 12
2023-10-08 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-053.1 1745 1614 50.59% 23.47% 25.94%+0.48 +11.5 19
2023-10-20 Neftchi Baku L 2-459.2 1508 1603 30.08% 23.89% 46.03%-0.30 -10.1 17
2023-10-20 @ Sabail W 4-259.2 1603 1508 46.03% 23.89% 30.08%+0.30 +10.1 15
2023-10-20 Qarabag D 2-278.1 1538 1756 17.67% 21.69% 60.65%-0.94 +1.5 12
2023-10-20 @ Turan Tovuz D 2-278.1 1756 1538 60.65% 21.69% 17.67%+0.94 -1.5 20
2023-10-21 Sumgayit W 3-150.9 1617 1480 59.91% 21.86% 18.23%+0.90 +7.3 10
2023-10-21 @ Sabah L 1-350.9 1480 1617 18.23% 21.86% 59.91%-0.90 -7.3 11
2023-10-21 Zira D 0-059.9 1437 1585 24.00% 23.19% 52.81%-0.58 +1.5 6
2023-10-21 @ Kapaz D 0-059.9 1585 1437 52.81% 23.19% 24.00%+0.58 -1.5 20
2023-10-22 Araz-Naxcivan L 1-453.0 1504 1439 51.53% 23.36% 25.11%+0.52 -24.6 7
2023-10-22 @ Gabala W 4-153.0 1439 1504 25.11% 23.36% 51.53%-0.52 +24.6 17
2023-10-25 Sabah W 1-059.2 1472 1625 23.60% 23.12% 53.28%-0.60 +11.0 14
2023-10-25 @ Sumgayit L 0-159.2 1625 1472 53.28% 23.12% 23.60%+0.60 -11.0 10
2023-10-28 Kapaz W 4-039.6 1539 1438 55.90% 22.69% 21.41%+0.71 +18.5 15
2023-10-28 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-439.6 1438 1539 21.41% 22.69% 55.90%-0.71 -18.5 6
2023-10-28 Sabail D 2-272.7 1584 1498 54.16% 22.99% 22.86%+0.63 -1.1 21
2023-10-28 @ Zira D 2-272.7 1498 1584 22.86% 22.99% 54.16%-0.63 +1.1 18
2023-10-29 Gabala D 0-057.5 1483 1479 43.70% 24.03% 32.27%+0.21 -0.6 15
2023-10-29 @ Sumgayit D 0-057.5 1479 1483 32.27% 24.03% 43.70%-0.21 +0.6 8
2023-10-29 Sabah L 0-159.9 1613 1614 43.03% 24.06% 32.91%+0.19 -9.2 15
2023-10-29 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-059.9 1614 1613 32.91% 24.06% 43.03%-0.19 +9.2 13
2023-10-30 Qarabag W 2-171.4 1464 1755 12.83% 19.63% 67.54%-1.31 +12.7 20
2023-10-30 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 1-271.4 1755 1464 67.54% 19.63% 12.83%+1.31 -12.7 20
2023-11-03 Turan Tovuz W 2-160.2 1499 1558 34.78% 24.12% 41.09%-0.12 +8.3 21
2023-11-03 @ Sabail L 1-260.2 1558 1499 41.09% 24.12% 34.78%+0.12 -8.3 15
2023-11-04 Araz-Naxcivan W 2-044.9 1483 1477 43.94% 24.02% 32.05%+0.22 +13.7 18
2023-11-04 @ Sumgayit L 0-244.9 1477 1483 32.05% 24.02% 43.94%-0.22 -13.7 20
2023-11-04 Kapaz W 7-142.6 1742 1420 75.83% 16.15% 8.02%+1.85 +8.1 23
2023-11-04 @ Qarabag L 1-742.6 1420 1742 8.02% 16.15% 75.83%-1.85 -8.1 6
2023-11-05 Neftchi Baku L 0-247.6 1480 1604 26.62% 23.56% 49.82%-0.45 -11.8 8
2023-11-05 @ Gabala W 2-047.6 1604 1480 49.82% 23.56% 26.62%+0.45 +11.8 18
2023-11-05 Zira L 0-161.0 1623 1583 48.49% 23.69% 27.82%+0.40 -10.1 13
2023-11-05 @ Sabah W 1-061.0 1583 1623 27.82% 23.69% 48.49%-0.40 +10.1 24
2023-11-10 Kapaz L 0-150.5 1463 1412 49.91% 23.55% 26.54%+0.45 -10.4 20
2023-11-10 @ Araz-Naxcivan W 1-050.5 1412 1463 26.54% 23.55% 49.91%-0.45 +10.4 9
2023-11-11 Sabah L 2-366.5 1550 1613 34.24% 24.11% 41.65%-0.14 -6.9 15
2023-11-11 @ Turan Tovuz W 3-266.5 1613 1550 41.65% 24.11% 34.24%+0.14 +6.9 16
2023-11-11 Sumgayit L 1-266.6 1616 1496 57.92% 22.30% 19.78%+0.80 -11.1 18
2023-11-11 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-166.6 1496 1616 19.78% 22.30% 57.92%-0.80 +11.1 21
2023-11-12 Gabala W 1-047.5 1593 1468 58.55% 22.17% 19.28%+0.83 +4.7 27
2023-11-12 @ Zira L 0-147.5 1468 1593 19.28% 22.17% 58.55%-0.83 -4.7 8
2023-11-12 Sabail W 3-151.9 1750 1507 69.76% 18.80% 11.43%+1.44 +4.5 26
2023-11-12 @ Qarabag L 1-351.9 1507 1750 11.43% 18.80% 69.76%-1.44 -4.5 21
2023-11-24 Qarabag L 1-262.0 1620 1755 25.41% 23.40% 51.19%-0.51 -5.7 16
2023-11-24 @ Sabah W 2-162.0 1755 1620 51.19% 23.40% 25.41%+0.51 +5.7 29
2023-11-25 Kapaz D 0-056.4 1503 1422 53.50% 23.09% 23.41%+0.60 -1.6 22
2023-11-25 @ Sabail D 0-056.4 1422 1503 23.41% 23.09% 53.50%-0.60 +1.6 10
2023-11-25 Turan Tovuz W 4-047.8 1463 1543 32.05% 24.02% 43.93%-0.22 +33.3 11
2023-11-25 @ Gabala L 0-447.8 1543 1463 43.93% 24.02% 32.05%+0.22 -33.4 15
2023-11-26 Araz-Naxcivan D 1-166.5 1605 1453 61.37% 21.50% 17.12%+0.97 -2.1 19
2023-11-26 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-166.5 1453 1605 17.12% 21.50% 61.37%-0.97 +2.1 21
2023-11-26 Zira D 0-062.6 1508 1597 30.73% 23.94% 45.33%-0.27 +0.7 22
2023-11-26 @ Sumgayit D 0-062.6 1597 1508 45.33% 23.94% 30.73%+0.27 -0.7 28
2023-12-02 Sabail D 1-161.9 1455 1501 36.58% 24.16% 39.27%-0.05 +0.1 22
2023-12-02 @ Araz-Naxcivan D 1-161.9 1501 1455 39.27% 24.16% 36.58%+0.05 -0.1 23
2023-12-02 Sumgayit D 2-270.1 1509 1508 43.26% 24.05% 32.70%+0.20 -0.3 16
2023-12-02 @ Turan Tovuz D 2-270.1 1508 1509 32.70% 24.05% 43.26%-0.20 +0.3 23
2023-12-03 Sabah L 0-243.7 1424 1614 20.00% 22.36% 57.64%-0.79 -9.2 10
2023-12-03 @ Kapaz W 2-043.7 1614 1424 57.64% 22.36% 20.00%+0.79 +9.2 19
2023-12-03 Zira W 1-056.0 1602 1597 43.90% 24.02% 32.09%+0.22 +7.3 22
2023-12-03 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-156.0 1597 1602 32.09% 24.02% 43.90%-0.22 -7.3 28
2023-12-04 Gabala W 3-043.6 1760 1497 71.46% 18.12% 10.42%+1.55 +6.9 32
2023-12-04 @ Qarabag L 0-343.6 1497 1760 10.42% 18.12% 71.46%-1.55 -6.8 11
2023-12-08 Qarabag L 1-648.6 1509 1767 14.80% 20.60% 64.60%-1.14 -13.2 23
2023-12-08 @ Sumgayit W 6-148.6 1767 1509 64.60% 20.60% 14.80%+1.14 +13.2 35
2023-12-09 Araz-Naxcivan D 0-061.1 1589 1455 59.57% 21.94% 18.48%+0.88 -2.2 29
2023-12-09 @ Zira D 0-061.1 1455 1589 18.48% 21.94% 59.57%-0.88 +2.2 23
2023-12-09 Kapaz L 0-347.0 1490 1415 52.86% 23.18% 23.96%+0.58 -29.8 11
2023-12-09 @ Gabala W 3-047.0 1415 1490 23.96% 23.18% 52.86%-0.58 +29.8 13
2023-12-10 Sabail W 4-044.1 1623 1501 58.24% 22.23% 19.52%+0.82 +17.0 22
2023-12-10 @ Sabah L 0-444.1 1501 1623 19.52% 22.23% 58.24%-0.82 -17.0 23
2023-12-10 Turan Tovuz W 3-261.0 1610 1509 55.86% 22.70% 21.44%+0.71 +4.6 25
2023-12-10 @ Neftchi Baku L 2-361.0 1509 1610 21.44% 22.70% 55.86%-0.71 -4.6 16
2023-12-14 Sumgayit D 1-161.4 1444 1495 35.89% 24.15% 39.96%-0.07 +0.2 14
2023-12-14 @ Kapaz D 1-161.4 1495 1444 39.96% 24.15% 35.89%+0.07 -0.2 24
2023-12-15 Gabala W 3-041.6 1484 1460 46.38% 23.87% 29.75%+0.31 +18.8 26
2023-12-15 @ Sabail L 0-341.6 1460 1484 29.75% 23.87% 46.38%-0.31 -18.8 11
2023-12-15 Sabah W 2-056.9 1457 1640 20.65% 22.52% 56.83%-0.75 +21.9 26
2023-12-15 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 0-256.9 1640 1457 56.83% 22.52% 20.65%+0.75 -21.9 22
2023-12-16 Zira W 1-056.7 1504 1587 31.62% 23.99% 44.38%-0.24 +9.4 19
2023-12-16 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-156.7 1587 1504 44.38% 23.99% 31.62%+0.24 -9.4 29
2023-12-18 Neftchi Baku W 2-049.7 1780 1614 62.79% 21.12% 16.08%+1.05 +7.4 38
2023-12-18 @ Qarabag L 0-249.7 1614 1780 16.08% 21.12% 62.79%-1.05 -7.4 25
2023-12-22 Sabah W 1-058.7 1441 1618 21.18% 22.64% 56.18%-0.72 +11.5 14
2023-12-22 @ Gabala L 0-158.7 1618 1441 56.18% 22.64% 21.18%+0.72 -11.5 22
2023-12-23 Sabail W 1-050.1 1495 1503 42.08% 24.09% 33.82%+0.15 +7.6 27
2023-12-23 @ Sumgayit L 0-150.1 1503 1495 33.82% 24.09% 42.08%-0.15 -7.6 26
2023-12-24 Araz-Naxcivan W 3-150.7 1514 1479 47.79% 23.75% 28.45%+0.37 +10.8 22
2023-12-24 @ Turan Tovuz L 1-350.7 1479 1514 28.45% 23.75% 47.79%-0.37 -10.8 26
2023-12-24 Kapaz W 2-042.7 1607 1445 62.43% 21.23% 16.35%+1.03 +7.5 28
2023-12-24 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-242.7 1445 1607 16.35% 21.23% 62.43%-1.03 -7.5 14
2023-12-24 Qarabag L 0-153.7 1578 1788 18.34% 21.90% 59.77%-0.89 -4.5 29
2023-12-24 @ Zira W 1-053.7 1788 1578 59.77% 21.90% 18.34%+0.89 +4.5 41
2024-01-21 Neftchi Baku D 0-065.6 1607 1614 42.04% 24.10% 33.87%+0.15 -0.4 23
2024-01-21 @ Sabah D 0-065.6 1614 1607 33.87% 24.10% 42.04%-0.15 +0.4 29
2024-01-22 Turan Tovuz W 2-157.8 1437 1525 31.02% 23.96% 45.03%-0.26 +9.0 17
2024-01-22 @ Kapaz L 1-257.8 1525 1437 45.03% 23.96% 31.02%+0.26 -9.0 22
2024-01-22 Zira D 0-061.4 1495 1573 32.22% 24.03% 43.75%-0.21 +0.6 27
2024-01-22 @ Sabail D 0-061.4 1573 1495 43.75% 24.03% 32.22%+0.21 -0.6 30
2024-01-23 Araz-Naxcivan W 3-150.1 1792 1468 75.96% 16.09% 7.95%+1.86 +3.0 44
2024-01-23 @ Qarabag L 1-350.1 1468 1792 7.95% 16.09% 75.96%-1.86 -3.0 26
2024-01-23 Sumgayit L 0-149.2 1453 1503 35.99% 24.15% 39.86%-0.07 -8.0 14
2024-01-23 @ Gabala W 1-049.2 1503 1453 39.86% 24.15% 35.99%+0.07 +8.0 30
2024-01-26 Sabail W 3-152.0 1516 1496 45.83% 23.91% 30.27%+0.29 +11.4 25
2024-01-26 @ Turan Tovuz L 1-352.0 1496 1516 30.27% 23.91% 45.83%-0.29 -11.4 27
2024-01-27 Qarabag L 1-254.0 1446 1795 9.88% 17.72% 72.40%-1.61 -2.2 17
2024-01-27 @ Kapaz W 2-154.0 1795 1446 72.40% 17.72% 9.88%+1.61 +2.2 47
2024-01-27 Sabah L 0-157.5 1573 1606 38.40% 24.16% 37.44%+0.02 -8.4 30
2024-01-27 @ Zira W 1-057.5 1606 1573 37.44% 24.16% 38.40%-0.02 +8.4 26
2024-01-28 Gabala W 3-148.6 1615 1445 63.21% 21.01% 15.78%+1.07 +6.3 32
2024-01-28 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-348.6 1445 1615 15.78% 21.01% 63.21%-1.07 -6.3 14
2024-01-28 Sumgayit D 1-162.7 1465 1511 36.65% 24.16% 39.19%-0.05 +0.1 27
2024-01-28 @ Araz-Naxcivan D 1-162.7 1511 1465 39.19% 24.16% 36.65%+0.05 -0.1 31
2024-02-03 Qarabag L 1-255.5 1484 1798 11.61% 18.91% 69.48%-1.43 -2.6 27
2024-02-03 @ Sabail W 2-155.5 1798 1484 69.48% 18.91% 11.61%+1.43 +2.7 50
2024-02-03 Turan Tovuz D 1-168.8 1615 1527 54.35% 22.96% 22.69%+0.64 -1.5 27
2024-02-03 @ Sabah D 1-168.8 1527 1615 22.69% 22.96% 54.35%-0.64 +1.5 26
2024-02-04 Neftchi Baku W 2-164.6 1511 1621 28.22% 23.73% 48.05%-0.38 +9.5 34
2024-02-04 @ Sumgayit L 1-264.6 1621 1511 48.05% 23.73% 28.22%+0.38 -9.5 32
2024-02-04 Zira D 1-163.9 1438 1564 26.39% 23.53% 50.08%-0.46 +1.1 15
2024-02-04 @ Gabala D 1-163.9 1564 1438 50.08% 23.53% 26.39%+0.46 -1.1 31
2024-02-05 Araz-Naxcivan W 3-150.0 1444 1465 40.10% 24.14% 35.76%+0.08 +13.0 20
2024-02-05 @ Kapaz L 1-350.0 1465 1444 35.76% 24.14% 40.10%-0.08 -13.0 27
2024-02-11 Sabah D 3-383.4 1800 1613 64.81% 20.53% 14.66%+1.15 -1.5 51
2024-02-11 @ Qarabag D 3-383.4 1613 1800 14.66% 20.53% 64.81%-1.15 +1.5 28
2024-02-12 Sabail L 1-449.5 1457 1482 39.61% 24.15% 36.24%+0.06 -19.8 20
2024-02-12 @ Kapaz W 4-149.5 1482 1457 36.24% 24.15% 39.61%-0.06 +19.8 30
2024-02-13 Gabala W 2-151.0 1528 1439 54.53% 22.93% 22.55%+0.65 +5.1 29
2024-02-13 @ Turan Tovuz L 1-251.0 1439 1528 22.55% 22.93% 54.53%-0.65 -5.1 15
2024-02-13 Neftchi Baku W 1-058.3 1452 1612 22.88% 22.99% 54.13%-0.63 +11.1 30
2024-02-13 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 0-158.3 1612 1452 54.13% 22.99% 22.88%+0.63 -11.1 32
2024-02-13 Sumgayit D 0-062.0 1563 1520 48.87% 23.66% 27.47%+0.41 -1.1 32
2024-02-13 @ Zira D 0-062.0 1520 1563 27.47% 23.66% 48.87%-0.41 +1.1 35
2024-02-17 Araz-Naxcivan D 2-268.2 1502 1463 48.22% 23.72% 28.06%+0.39 -0.7 31
2024-02-17 @ Sabail D 2-268.2 1463 1502 28.06% 23.72% 48.22%-0.39 +0.7 31
2024-02-17 Kapaz W 3-256.3 1615 1437 63.94% 20.80% 15.26%+1.11 +3.3 31
2024-02-17 @ Sabah L 2-356.3 1437 1615 15.26% 20.80% 63.94%-1.11 -3.4 20
2024-02-18 Turan Tovuz D 0-060.9 1521 1534 41.41% 24.12% 34.48%+0.13 -0.3 36
2024-02-18 @ Sumgayit D 0-060.9 1534 1521 34.48% 24.12% 41.41%-0.13 +0.3 30
2024-02-18 Zira W 1-053.8 1601 1562 48.25% 23.71% 28.03%+0.39 +6.5 35
2024-02-18 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-153.8 1562 1601 28.03% 23.71% 48.25%-0.39 -6.5 32
2024-02-23 Gabala W 2-151.0 1434 1434 43.02% 24.06% 32.92%+0.19 +7.0 23
2024-02-23 @ Kapaz L 1-251.0 1434 1434 32.92% 24.06% 43.02%-0.19 -7.0 15
2024-02-24 Neftchi Baku D 1-168.4 1534 1607 32.88% 24.06% 43.06%-0.19 +0.4 31
2024-02-24 @ Turan Tovuz D 1-168.4 1607 1534 43.06% 24.06% 32.88%+0.19 -0.4 36
2024-02-24 Sabah W 2-055.5 1501 1618 27.42% 23.65% 48.93%-0.41 +19.2 34
2024-02-24 @ Sabail L 0-255.5 1618 1501 48.93% 23.65% 27.42%+0.41 -19.2 31
2024-02-25 Sumgayit W 2-046.1 1799 1521 72.55% 17.66% 9.79%+1.62 +4.4 54
2024-02-25 @ Qarabag L 0-246.1 1521 1799 9.79% 17.66% 72.55%-1.62 -4.4 36
2024-02-25 Zira L 0-344.7 1464 1556 30.51% 23.92% 45.57%-0.28 -19.2 31
2024-02-25 @ Araz-Naxcivan W 3-044.7 1556 1464 45.57% 23.92% 30.51%+0.28 +19.2 35
2024-02-28 Qarabag L 0-441.9 1427 1803 8.77% 16.83% 74.40%-1.75 -7.4 15
2024-02-28 @ Gabala W 4-041.9 1803 1427 74.40% 16.83% 8.77%+1.75 +7.4 57
2024-03-01 Kapaz L 1-356.6 1517 1441 52.97% 23.16% 23.87%+0.58 -17.8 36
2024-03-01 @ Sumgayit W 3-156.6 1441 1517 23.87% 23.16% 52.97%-0.58 +17.8 26
2024-03-02 Araz-Naxcivan W 2-042.7 1599 1445 61.58% 21.45% 16.97%+0.98 +7.8 34
2024-03-02 @ Sabah L 0-242.7 1445 1599 16.97% 21.45% 61.58%-0.98 -7.8 31
2024-03-02 Turan Tovuz D 1-167.6 1575 1534 48.54% 23.69% 27.77%+0.40 -0.9 36
2024-03-02 @ Zira D 1-167.6 1534 1575 27.77% 23.69% 48.54%-0.40 +0.9 32
2024-03-03 Qarabag L 1-454.0 1607 1810 18.84% 22.05% 59.11%-0.86 -10.6 36
2024-03-03 @ Neftchi Baku W 4-154.0 1810 1607 59.11% 22.05% 18.84%+0.86 +10.6 60
2024-03-03 Sabail L 2-357.3 1420 1520 29.44% 23.84% 46.72%-0.33 -6.1 15
2024-03-03 @ Gabala W 3-257.3 1520 1420 46.72% 23.84% 29.44%+0.33 +6.1 37
2024-03-08 Sumgayit L 0-155.0 1526 1499 46.82% 23.83% 29.35%+0.33 -9.8 37
2024-03-08 @ Sabail W 1-055.0 1499 1526 29.35% 23.83% 46.82%-0.33 +9.8 39
2024-03-09 Gabala W 2-149.7 1607 1414 65.37% 20.36% 14.28%+1.19 +3.3 37
2024-03-09 @ Sabah L 1-249.7 1414 1607 14.28% 20.36% 65.37%-1.19 -3.3 15
2024-03-09 Neftchi Baku D 3-375.4 1458 1596 25.13% 23.36% 51.51%-0.52 +0.8 27
2024-03-09 @ Kapaz D 3-375.4 1596 1458 51.51% 23.36% 25.13%+0.52 -0.8 37
2024-03-10 Araz-Naxcivan W 2-041.9 1535 1437 55.57% 22.75% 21.68%+0.70 +9.9 35
2024-03-10 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-241.9 1437 1535 21.68% 22.75% 55.57%-0.70 -9.9 31
2024-03-10 Zira W 3-153.3 1821 1574 70.11% 18.67% 11.22%+1.46 +4.4 63
2024-03-10 @ Qarabag L 1-353.3 1574 1821 11.22% 18.67% 70.11%-1.46 -4.4 36
2024-03-15 Sabail W 3-045.5 1595 1516 53.32% 23.11% 23.56%+0.60 +15.4 40
2024-03-15 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-345.5 1516 1595 23.56% 23.11% 53.32%-0.60 -15.4 37
2024-03-16 Gabala D 1-158.2 1427 1410 45.41% 23.93% 30.66%+0.28 -0.7 32
2024-03-16 @ Araz-Naxcivan D 1-158.2 1410 1427 30.66% 23.93% 45.41%-0.28 +0.6 16
2024-03-16 Kapaz W 2-152.5 1570 1459 56.96% 22.50% 20.55%+0.76 +4.7 39
2024-03-16 @ Zira L 1-252.5 1459 1570 20.55% 22.50% 56.96%-0.76 -4.7 27
2024-03-17 Qarabag L 1-354.2 1545 1825 13.43% 19.95% 66.62%-1.26 -5.4 35
2024-03-17 @ Turan Tovuz W 3-154.2 1825 1545 66.62% 19.95% 13.43%+1.26 +5.4 66
2024-03-17 Sabah L 1-258.6 1509 1610 29.30% 23.83% 46.87%-0.33 -6.4 39
2024-03-17 @ Sumgayit W 2-158.6 1610 1509 46.87% 23.83% 29.30%+0.33 +6.4 40
2024-03-29 Neftchi Baku L 0-146.1 1411 1611 19.19% 22.14% 58.67%-0.84 -4.7 16
2024-03-29 @ Gabala W 1-046.1 1611 1411 58.67% 22.14% 19.19%+0.84 +4.7 43
2024-03-29 Qarabag L 1-645.8 1454 1831 8.75% 16.81% 74.44%-1.75 -7.5 27
2024-03-29 @ Kapaz W 6-145.8 1831 1454 74.44% 16.81% 8.75%+1.75 +7.5 69
2024-03-30 Turan Tovuz D 1-165.1 1501 1540 37.62% 24.16% 38.22%-0.01 +0.0 38
2024-03-30 @ Sabail D 1-165.1 1540 1501 38.22% 24.16% 37.62%+0.01 -0.0 36
2024-03-30 Zira L 0-160.7 1616 1574 48.74% 23.67% 27.59%+0.41 -10.2 40
2024-03-30 @ Sabah W 1-060.7 1574 1616 27.59% 23.67% 48.74%-0.41 +10.2 42
2024-03-31 Araz-Naxcivan W 1-044.4 1502 1427 52.92% 23.17% 23.91%+0.58 +5.7 42
2024-03-31 @ Sumgayit L 0-144.4 1427 1502 23.91% 23.17% 52.92%-0.58 -5.7 32
2024-04-05 Kapaz L 1-253.0 1421 1447 39.46% 24.15% 36.38%+0.06 -8.1 32
2024-04-05 @ Araz-Naxcivan W 2-153.0 1447 1421 36.38% 24.15% 39.46%-0.06 +8.1 30
2024-04-06 Sabah W 2-054.4 1540 1606 33.79% 24.09% 42.12%-0.15 +17.0 39
2024-04-06 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-254.4 1606 1540 42.12% 24.09% 33.79%+0.15 -17.0 40
2024-04-06 Sabail W 4-254.6 1838 1501 76.89% 15.63% 7.48%+1.93 +2.5 72
2024-04-06 @ Qarabag L 2-454.6 1501 1838 7.48% 15.63% 76.89%-1.93 -2.5 38
2024-04-07 Gabala W 4-037.7 1584 1406 63.96% 20.79% 15.25%+1.11 +13.4 45
2024-04-07 @ Zira L 0-437.7 1406 1584 15.25% 20.79% 63.96%-1.11 -13.4 16
2024-04-07 Sumgayit D 1-168.4 1615 1508 56.63% 22.56% 20.81%+0.74 -1.7 44
2024-04-07 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-168.4 1508 1615 20.81% 22.56% 56.63%-0.74 +1.7 43
2024-04-12 Zira D 0-062.7 1510 1598 30.94% 23.95% 45.11%-0.27 +0.7 44
2024-04-12 @ Sumgayit D 0-062.7 1598 1510 45.11% 23.95% 30.94%+0.27 -0.7 46
2024-04-13 Araz-Naxcivan W 3-038.7 1614 1413 66.10% 20.12% 13.78%+1.23 +9.2 47
2024-04-13 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-338.7 1413 1614 13.78% 20.12% 66.10%-1.23 -9.2 32
2024-04-13 Turan Tovuz L 1-250.3 1393 1557 22.45% 22.91% 54.64%-0.65 -5.1 16
2024-04-13 @ Gabala W 2-150.3 1557 1393 54.64% 22.91% 22.45%+0.65 +5.1 42
2024-04-14 Kapaz D 3-371.5 1498 1455 48.91% 23.65% 27.44%+0.41 -0.6 39
2024-04-14 @ Sabail D 3-371.5 1455 1498 27.44% 23.65% 48.91%-0.41 +0.6 31
2024-04-14 Qarabag W 3-278.2 1589 1841 15.25% 20.79% 63.96%-1.11 +11.5 43
2024-04-14 @ Sabah L 2-378.2 1841 1589 63.96% 20.79% 15.25%+1.11 -11.5 72
2024-04-19 Sumgayit L 1-457.3 1562 1510 49.95% 23.54% 26.51%+0.46 -23.9 42
2024-04-19 @ Turan Tovuz W 4-157.3 1510 1562 26.51% 23.54% 49.95%-0.46 +24.0 47
2024-04-20 Gabala D 2-279.7 1829 1388 83.18% 12.21% 4.62%+2.47 -2.8 73
2024-04-20 @ Qarabag D 2-279.7 1388 1829 4.62% 12.21% 83.18%-2.47 +2.8 17
2024-04-20 Neftchi Baku W 3-160.3 1597 1623 39.48% 24.15% 36.36%+0.06 +13.1 49
2024-04-20 @ Zira L 1-360.3 1623 1597 36.36% 24.15% 39.48%-0.06 -13.1 47
2024-04-21 Sabah L 1-254.9 1456 1601 24.34% 23.24% 52.42%-0.56 -5.5 31
2024-04-21 @ Kapaz W 2-154.9 1601 1456 52.42% 23.24% 24.34%+0.56 +5.5 46
2024-04-21 Sabail L 0-242.2 1404 1498 30.18% 23.90% 45.92%-0.30 -13.1 32
2024-04-21 @ Araz-Naxcivan W 2-042.2 1498 1404 45.92% 23.90% 30.18%+0.30 +13.1 42
2024-04-27 Sabail W 2-047.1 1606 1511 55.24% 22.81% 21.95%+0.68 +10.0 49
2024-04-27 @ Sabah L 0-247.1 1511 1606 21.95% 22.81% 55.24%-0.68 -10.0 42
2024-04-28 Kapaz L 0-145.2 1391 1450 34.75% 24.12% 41.13%-0.12 -7.8 17
2024-04-28 @ Gabala W 1-045.2 1450 1391 41.13% 24.12% 34.75%+0.12 +7.8 34
2024-04-28 Qarabag W 1-067.8 1534 1827 12.73% 19.58% 67.69%-1.32 +13.5 50
2024-04-28 @ Sumgayit L 0-167.8 1827 1534 67.69% 19.58% 12.73%+1.32 -13.5 73
2024-04-28 Turan Tovuz W 3-046.9 1610 1538 52.47% 23.23% 24.29%+0.56 +15.9 50
2024-04-28 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-346.9 1538 1610 24.29% 23.23% 52.47%-0.56 -15.9 42
2024-04-29 Araz-Naxcivan L 0-159.1 1610 1390 67.78% 19.54% 12.68%+1.32 -13.5 49
2024-04-29 @ Zira W 1-059.1 1390 1610 12.68% 19.54% 67.78%-1.32 +13.5 35
2024-05-04 Neftchi Baku W 5-047.5 1813 1626 64.85% 20.52% 14.63%+1.16 +15.8 76
2024-05-04 @ Qarabag L 0-547.5 1626 1813 14.63% 20.52% 64.85%-1.16 -15.8 50
2024-05-04 Sumgayit D 1-163.9 1458 1548 30.73% 23.94% 45.33%-0.27 +0.7 35
2024-05-04 @ Kapaz D 1-163.9 1548 1458 45.33% 23.94% 30.73%+0.27 -0.7 51
2024-05-05 Sabah L 0-145.6 1404 1616 18.16% 21.84% 60.00%-0.90 -4.4 35
2024-05-05 @ Araz-Naxcivan W 1-045.6 1616 1404 60.00% 21.84% 18.16%+0.90 +4.4 52
2024-05-05 Zira L 1-259.7 1522 1597 32.70% 24.05% 43.25%-0.20 -7.0 42
2024-05-05 @ Turan Tovuz W 2-159.7 1597 1522 43.25% 24.05% 32.70%+0.20 +7.0 52
2024-05-06 Gabala L 2-363.5 1501 1383 57.79% 22.33% 19.88%+0.80 -10.5 42
2024-05-06 @ Sabail W 3-263.5 1383 1501 19.88% 22.33% 57.79%-0.80 +10.5 20
2024-05-10 Kapaz W 5-145.1 1610 1459 61.32% 21.52% 17.16%+0.97 +12.5 53
2024-05-10 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-545.1 1459 1610 17.16% 21.52% 61.32%-0.97 -12.5 35
2024-05-11 Qarabag L 0-153.7 1604 1829 17.14% 21.51% 61.35%-0.97 -4.2 52
2024-05-11 @ Zira W 1-053.7 1829 1604 61.35% 21.51% 17.14%+0.97 +4.2 79
2024-05-11 Turan Tovuz L 0-145.1 1400 1515 27.62% 23.67% 48.71%-0.41 -6.5 35
2024-05-11 @ Araz-Naxcivan W 1-045.1 1515 1400 48.71% 23.67% 27.62%+0.41 +6.5 45
2024-05-12 Sabah W 2-055.0 1394 1621 17.00% 21.46% 61.54%-0.98 +23.5 23
2024-05-12 @ Gabala L 0-255.0 1621 1394 61.54% 21.46% 17.00%+0.98 -23.5 52
2024-05-12 Sabail W 2-154.7 1547 1490 50.60% 23.47% 25.93%+0.48 +5.8 54
2024-05-12 @ Sumgayit L 1-254.7 1490 1547 25.93% 23.47% 50.60%-0.48 -5.8 42
2024-05-17 Turan Tovuz W 4-362.2 1833 1522 75.07% 16.52% 8.41%+1.80 +1.7 82
2024-05-17 @ Qarabag L 3-462.2 1522 1833 8.41% 16.52% 75.07%-1.80 -1.7 45
2024-05-18 Neftchi Baku L 0-345.9 1485 1622 25.12% 23.36% 51.52%-0.52 -16.3 42
2024-05-18 @ Sabail W 3-045.9 1622 1485 51.52% 23.36% 25.12%+0.52 +16.3 56
2024-05-18 Sumgayit W 2-049.9 1597 1553 49.02% 23.64% 27.34%+0.42 +12.1 55
2024-05-18 @ Sabah L 0-249.9 1553 1597 27.34% 23.64% 49.02%-0.42 -12.1 54
2024-05-18 Zira L 0-148.5 1446 1599 23.48% 23.10% 53.42%-0.60 -5.6 35
2024-05-18 @ Kapaz W 1-048.5 1599 1446 53.42% 23.10% 23.48%+0.60 +5.6 55
2024-05-19 Araz-Naxcivan W 2-039.5 1417 1393 46.35% 23.87% 29.78%+0.31 +13.0 26
2024-05-19 @ Gabala L 0-239.5 1393 1417 29.78% 23.87% 46.35%-0.31 -12.9 35
2024-05-25 Gabala W 1-044.6 1541 1430 57.01% 22.49% 20.51%+0.76 +5.0 57
2024-05-25 @ Sumgayit L 0-144.6 1430 1541 20.51% 22.49% 57.01%-0.76 -5.0 26
2024-05-25 Sabah L 0-161.4 1639 1609 47.10% 23.81% 29.09%+0.34 -9.9 56
2024-05-25 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-061.4 1609 1639 29.09% 23.81% 47.10%-0.34 +9.9 58
2024-05-25 Sabail W 1-047.6 1605 1468 59.81% 21.89% 18.30%+0.90 +4.5 58
2024-05-25 @ Zira L 0-147.6 1468 1605 18.30% 21.89% 59.81%-0.90 -4.5 42
2024-05-26 Kapaz W 1-045.3 1520 1440 53.38% 23.11% 23.52%+0.60 +5.6 48
2024-05-26 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-145.3 1440 1520 23.52% 23.11% 53.38%-0.60 -5.6 35
2024-05-26 Qarabag D 2-279.0 1380 1835 6.13% 14.17% 79.70%-2.16 +2.7 36
2024-05-26 @ Araz-Naxcivan D 2-279.0 1835 1380 79.70% 14.17% 6.13%+2.16 -2.7 83

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2024-04-29 12.68% Araz-Naxcivan 1390 1 @ Zira 1610 0
2 2024-04-28 12.73% @ Sumgayit 1534 1 Qarabag 1827 0
3 2023-10-30 12.83% @ Araz-Naxcivan 1464 2 Qarabag 1755 1
4 2023-09-03 13.58% @ Sabail 1453 2 Qarabag 1731 1
5 2024-04-14 15.25% @ Sabah 1589 3 Qarabag 1841 2
6 2023-08-05 15.51% Zira 1561 1 @ Qarabag 1735 0
7 2024-05-12 17.00% @ Gabala 1394 2 Sabah 1621 0
8 2023-09-01 17.50% Turan Tovuz 1519 3 @ Sabah 1666 0
9 2023-09-16 19.31% @ Araz-Naxcivan 1420 1 Neftchi Baku 1618 0
10 2023-11-11 19.78% Sumgayit 1496 2 @ Neftchi Baku 1616 1
11 2024-05-06 19.88% Gabala 1383 3 @ Sabail 1501 2
12 2023-12-15 20.65% @ Araz-Naxcivan 1457 2 Sabah 1640 0
13 2023-08-26 21.15% Sabail 1434 3 @ Turan Tovuz 1538 1
14 2023-12-22 21.18% @ Gabala 1441 1 Sabah 1618 0
15 2023-10-01 22.39% @ Araz-Naxcivan 1426 1 Zira 1590 0
16 2024-02-13 22.88% @ Araz-Naxcivan 1452 1 Neftchi Baku 1612 0
17 2023-10-25 23.60% @ Sumgayit 1472 1 Sabah 1625 0
18 2023-09-03 23.86% Araz-Naxcivan 1410 2 @ Kapaz 1486 1
19 2024-03-01 23.87% Kapaz 1441 3 @ Sumgayit 1517 1
20 2023-12-09 23.96% Kapaz 1415 3 @ Gabala 1490 0
21 2023-08-12 23.98% @ Araz-Naxcivan 1390 2 Gabala 1539 0
22 2023-10-22 25.11% Araz-Naxcivan 1439 4 @ Gabala 1504 1
23 2024-04-19 26.51% Sumgayit 1510 4 @ Turan Tovuz 1562 1
24 2023-11-10 26.54% Kapaz 1412 1 @ Araz-Naxcivan 1463 0
25 2023-08-06 27.34% @ Kapaz 1495 1 Neftchi Baku 1613 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-09-01 33.76 Turan Tovuz 3 1519 17.50% @ Sabah 0 1666 60.87% 21.63%
2 2023-11-25 33.35 @ Gabala 4 1463 32.05% Turan Tovuz 0 1543 43.93% 24.02%
3 2023-12-09 29.82 Kapaz 3 1415 23.96% @ Gabala 0 1490 52.86% 23.18%
4 2023-09-16 25.78 Sabail 3 1466 31.54% @ Kapaz 0 1476 44.47% 23.99%
5 2023-10-22 24.60 Araz-Naxcivan 4 1439 25.11% @ Gabala 1 1504 51.53% 23.36%
6 2024-04-19 23.95 Sumgayit 4 1510 26.51% @ Turan Tovuz 1 1562 49.95% 23.54%
7 2023-08-06 23.73 @ Sabah 5 1654 54.73% Gabala 0 1563 22.38% 22.89%
8 2024-05-12 23.47 @ Gabala 2 1394 17.00% Sabah 0 1621 61.54% 21.46%
9 2023-12-15 21.88 @ Araz-Naxcivan 2 1457 20.65% Sabah 0 1640 56.83% 22.52%
10 2023-08-05 20.76 Sumgayit 4 1467 33.92% @ Sabail 1 1458 41.98% 24.10%
11 2023-08-12 20.53 @ Araz-Naxcivan 2 1390 23.98% Gabala 0 1539 52.83% 23.18%
12 2024-02-12 19.83 Sabail 4 1482 36.24% @ Kapaz 1 1457 39.61% 24.15%
13 2024-02-24 19.22 @ Sabail 2 1501 27.42% Sabah 0 1618 48.93% 23.65%
14 2024-02-25 19.19 Zira 3 1556 45.57% @ Araz-Naxcivan 0 1464 30.51% 23.92%
15 2023-12-15 18.80 @ Sabail 3 1484 46.38% Gabala 0 1460 29.75% 23.87%
16 2023-08-26 18.77 Sabail 3 1434 21.15% @ Turan Tovuz 1 1538 56.21% 22.64%
17 2023-10-28 18.51 @ Turan Tovuz 4 1539 55.90% Kapaz 0 1438 21.41% 22.69%
18 2023-08-04 18.37 Turan Tovuz 3 1513 47.27% @ Araz-Naxcivan 0 1409 28.93% 23.80%
19 2024-03-01 17.82 Kapaz 3 1441 23.87% @ Sumgayit 1 1517 52.97% 23.16%
20 2023-12-10 17.00 @ Sabah 4 1623 58.24% Sabail 0 1501 19.52% 22.23%
21 2024-04-06 16.99 @ Turan Tovuz 2 1540 33.79% Sabah 0 1606 42.12% 24.09%
22 2024-05-18 16.31 Neftchi Baku 3 1622 51.52% @ Sabail 0 1485 25.12% 23.36%
23 2023-08-18 16.30 Turan Tovuz 2 1522 35.91% @ Kapaz 0 1499 39.95% 24.15%
24 2024-04-28 15.85 @ Neftchi Baku 3 1610 52.47% Turan Tovuz 0 1538 24.29% 23.23%
25 2024-05-04 15.80 @ Qarabag 5 1813 64.85% Neftchi Baku 0 1626 14.63% 20.52%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-02-11 83.4 @ Qarabag 3 1800 64.81% Sabah 3 1613 14.66% 20.53%
2 2024-04-20 79.7 @ Qarabag 2 1829 83.18% Gabala 2 1388 4.62% 12.21%
3 2024-05-26 79.0 @ Araz-Naxcivan 2 1380 6.13% Qarabag 2 1835 79.70% 14.17%
4 2024-04-14 78.2 @ Sabah 3 1589 15.25% Qarabag 2 1841 63.96% 20.79%
5 2023-10-20 78.1 @ Turan Tovuz 2 1538 17.67% Qarabag 2 1756 60.65% 21.69%
6 2024-03-09 75.4 @ Kapaz 3 1458 25.13% Neftchi Baku 3 1596 51.51% 23.36%
7 2023-09-30 73.7 @ Sabail 2 1498 26.76% Sabah 2 1620 49.67% 23.57%
8 2023-09-24 73.0 @ Sabah 2 1622 63.42% Kapaz 2 1450 15.63% 20.95%
9 2023-10-28 72.7 @ Zira 2 1584 54.16% Sabail 2 1498 22.86% 22.99%
10 2023-08-27 72.0 @ Qarabag 1 1734 70.42% Kapaz 1 1483 11.03% 18.54%
11 2023-09-17 71.8 @ Turan Tovuz 2 1553 49.05% Gabala 2 1509 27.31% 23.64%
12 2023-08-20 71.7 @ Sabah 1 1677 53.08% Neftchi Baku 1 1600 23.77% 23.15%
13 2024-04-14 71.5 @ Sabail 3 1498 48.91% Kapaz 3 1455 27.44% 23.65%
14 2023-10-30 71.4 @ Araz-Naxcivan 2 1464 12.83% Qarabag 1 1755 67.54% 19.63%
15 2023-09-03 70.4 @ Sabail 2 1453 13.58% Qarabag 1 1731 66.40% 20.02%
16 2023-12-02 70.1 @ Turan Tovuz 2 1509 43.26% Sumgayit 2 1508 32.70% 24.05%
17 2023-09-23 69.9 @ Zira 1 1590 40.91% Neftchi Baku 1 1606 34.97% 24.13%
18 2024-02-03 68.8 @ Sabah 1 1615 54.35% Turan Tovuz 1 1527 22.69% 22.96%
19 2024-02-24 68.4 @ Turan Tovuz 1 1534 32.88% Neftchi Baku 1 1607 43.06% 24.06%
20 2024-04-07 68.4 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1615 56.63% Sumgayit 1 1508 20.81% 22.56%
21 2024-02-17 68.2 @ Sabail 2 1502 48.22% Araz-Naxcivan 2 1463 28.06% 23.72%
22 2024-04-28 67.8 @ Sumgayit 1 1534 12.73% Qarabag 0 1827 67.69% 19.58%
23 2024-03-02 67.6 @ Zira 1 1575 48.54% Turan Tovuz 1 1534 27.77% 23.69%
24 2023-10-07 66.7 @ Sabah 1 1620 64.40% Araz-Naxcivan 1 1437 14.94% 20.66%
25 2023-11-11 66.6 Sumgayit 2 1496 19.78% @ Neftchi Baku 1 1616 57.92% 22.30%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-04-07 37.7 @ Zira 4 1584 63.96% Gabala 0 1406 15.25% 20.79%
2 2024-04-13 38.7 @ Neftchi Baku 3 1614 66.10% Araz-Naxcivan 0 1413 13.78% 20.12%
3 2024-05-19 39.5 @ Gabala 2 1417 46.35% Araz-Naxcivan 0 1393 29.78% 23.87%
4 2023-10-28 39.6 @ Turan Tovuz 4 1539 55.90% Kapaz 0 1438 21.41% 22.69%
5 2023-08-04 40.6 Turan Tovuz 3 1513 47.27% @ Araz-Naxcivan 0 1409 28.93% 23.80%
6 2023-12-15 41.6 @ Sabail 3 1484 46.38% Gabala 0 1460 29.75% 23.87%
7 2024-02-28 41.9 Qarabag 4 1803 74.40% @ Gabala 0 1427 8.77% 16.83%
8 2024-03-10 41.9 @ Turan Tovuz 2 1535 55.57% Araz-Naxcivan 0 1437 21.68% 22.75%
9 2024-04-21 42.2 Sabail 2 1498 45.92% @ Araz-Naxcivan 0 1404 30.18% 23.90%
10 2023-11-04 42.6 @ Qarabag 7 1742 75.83% Kapaz 1 1420 8.02% 16.15%
11 2023-12-24 42.7 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1607 62.43% Kapaz 0 1445 16.35% 21.23%
12 2024-03-02 42.7 @ Sabah 2 1599 61.58% Araz-Naxcivan 0 1445 16.97% 21.45%
13 2023-09-29 43.4 @ Qarabag 5 1733 70.18% Sumgayit 0 1485 11.18% 18.64%
14 2023-12-04 43.6 @ Qarabag 3 1760 71.46% Gabala 0 1497 10.42% 18.12%
15 2023-12-03 43.7 Sabah 2 1614 57.64% @ Kapaz 0 1424 20.00% 22.36%
16 2023-12-10 44.1 @ Sabah 4 1623 58.24% Sabail 0 1501 19.52% 22.23%
17 2024-03-31 44.4 @ Sumgayit 1 1502 52.92% Araz-Naxcivan 0 1427 23.91% 23.17%
18 2024-05-25 44.6 @ Sumgayit 1 1541 57.01% Gabala 0 1430 20.51% 22.49%
19 2024-02-25 44.7 Zira 3 1556 45.57% @ Araz-Naxcivan 0 1464 30.51% 23.92%
20 2023-09-24 44.8 @ Sabail 1 1491 50.95% Araz-Naxcivan 0 1432 25.62% 23.43%
21 2023-11-04 44.9 @ Sumgayit 2 1483 43.94% Araz-Naxcivan 0 1477 32.05% 24.02%
22 2024-05-10 45.1 @ Neftchi Baku 5 1610 61.32% Kapaz 1 1459 17.16% 21.52%
23 2024-05-11 45.1 Turan Tovuz 1 1515 48.71% @ Araz-Naxcivan 0 1400 27.62% 23.67%
24 2024-04-28 45.2 Kapaz 1 1450 41.13% @ Gabala 0 1391 34.75% 24.12%
25 2024-05-26 45.3 @ Turan Tovuz 1 1520 53.38% Kapaz 0 1440 23.52% 23.11%