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2024-25 Azerbaijan Premier League Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Qarabag

89 points · 12th Title

Last Title: 2023-24

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Zira

10.26 points above expected

74 points · 63.74 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sabail

14.19 points below expected

22 points · 36.19 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Qarabag Champion 36 28 5 3 89 86 19 +67 81.53 +7.47
2 Zira 36 23 5 8 74 59 27 +32 63.74 +10.26
3 Araz-Naxcivan 36 15 13 8 58 34 29 +5 48.58 +9.42
4 Turan Tovuz 36 14 13 9 55 45 39 +6 53.91 +1.09
5 Sabah 36 10 18 8 48 50 46 +4 54.23 -6.23
6 Neftchi Baku 36 10 13 13 43 39 49 -10 48.29 -5.29
7 Shamakhi 36 9 9 18 36 32 46 -14 34.54 +1.46
8 Sumgayit 36 9 6 21 33 31 53 -22 42.51 -9.51
9 Kapaz 36 8 8 20 32 28 65 -37 29.22 +2.78
10 Sabail 36 4 10 22 22 28 59 -31 36.19 -14.19

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Zira 74 63.74 +10.26
2 Araz-Naxcivan 58 48.58 +9.42
3 Qarabag 89 81.53 +7.47
4 Kapaz 32 29.22 +2.78
5 Shamakhi 36 34.54 +1.46

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sabail 22 36.19 -14.19
2 Sumgayit 33 42.51 -9.51
3 Sabah 48 54.23 -6.23
4 Neftchi Baku 43 48.29 -5.29
5 Turan Tovuz 55 53.91 +1.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Araz-Naxcivan 6 Nov 1 – Dec 7 1 in 437
2 Turan Tovuz 4 Aug 11 – Aug 30 1 in 84
3 Qarabag 7 Sep 1 – Oct 27 1 in 26
4 Sumgayit 2 Oct 26 – Nov 3 1 in 14
5 Sabah 3 Aug 18 – Aug 31 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kapaz 8 Aug 3 – Sep 28 1 in 164
2 Sumgayit 4 Aug 25 – Sep 22 1 in 85
3 Qarabag 2 Jan 26 – Feb 2 1 in 65
4 Zira 3 Nov 6 – Nov 23 1 in 33
5 Sabah 2 Apr 6 – Apr 12 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Araz-Naxcivan 15 Aug 10 – Dec 7 1 in 1,834
2 Kapaz 4 Mar 15 – Apr 13 1 in 39
3 Sabah 6 Apr 19 – May 24 1 in 28
4 Shamakhi 5 Aug 25 – Sep 29 1 in 24
5 Turan Tovuz 7 Sep 29 – Nov 24 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Neftchi Baku 9 Aug 3 – Oct 4 1 in 155
2 Araz-Naxcivan 8 Feb 1 – Mar 29 1 in 75
3 Sabah 8 Feb 17 – Apr 12 1 in 71
4 Sabail 16 Feb 1 – May 23 1 in 47
5 Shamakhi 11 Sep 29 – Dec 19 1 in 23

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Qarabag 1820 89 +10 13 12.2 +0.8
Zira 1681 74 +18 13 10.5 +2.5
Araz-Naxcivan 1497 58 -7 5 6.4 -1.4
Turan Tovuz 1508 55 +12 7 7.8 -0.8
Sabah 1520 48 +33 9 5.8 +3.2
Neftchi Baku 1483 43 +19 8 7.8 +0.2
Shamakhi 1370 36 -24 2 4.8 -2.8
Sumgayit 1378 33 +5 4 5.2 -1.2
Kapaz 1318 32 -17 4 3.6 +0.4
Sabail 1292 22 -48 2 4.5 -2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARA KAP NB QAR SAB SAB SHA SUM TT ZIR
Araz-Naxcivan —
2-2-0
7.68
2-2-0
5.22
0-0-4
2.15
0-3-1
4.88
2-2-0
7.08
3-1-0
6.40
3-1-0
6.01
2-1-1
4.80
1-1-2
3.71
Kapaz
0-2-2
3.23
 —
2-1-1
3.28
0-1-3
1.44
2-1-1
2.63
1-1-2
4.43
1-1-2
4.53
1-1-2
4.34
1-0-3
2.97
0-0-4
2.15
Neftchi Baku
0-2-2
5.62
1-1-2
7.63
 —
0-0-4
2.15
0-2-2
4.78
3-1-0
6.85
2-2-0
6.85
1-2-1
6.39
1-3-0
4.92
2-0-2
3.80
Qarabag
4-0-0
8.93
3-1-0
9.84
4-0-0
8.94
 —
1-3-0
8.49
4-0-0
9.51
4-0-0
9.92
4-0-0
9.51
1-1-2
8.43
3-0-1
7.60
Sabah
1-3-0
5.97
1-1-2
8.36
2-2-0
6.07
0-3-1
2.52
 —
3-1-0
7.48
1-1-2
7.70
1-2-1
6.97
1-2-1
5.37
0-3-1
4.25
Sabail
0-2-2
3.79
2-1-1
6.41
0-1-3
4.01
0-0-4
1.70
0-1-3
3.42
 —
1-2-1
5.38
1-0-3
4.74
0-3-1
3.46
0-0-4
2.62
Shamakhi
0-1-3
4.44
2-1-1
6.30
0-2-2
4.01
0-0-4
1.38
2-1-1
3.22
1-2-1
5.45
 —
3-0-1
4.50
0-2-2
3.41
1-0-3
2.67
Sumgayit
0-1-3
4.85
2-1-1
6.51
1-2-1
4.45
0-0-4
1.70
1-2-1
3.90
3-0-1
6.11
1-0-3
6.34
 —
1-0-3
4.20
0-0-4
3.23
Turan Tovuz
1-1-2
6.04
3-0-1
8.00
0-3-1
5.93
2-1-1
2.58
1-2-1
5.45
1-3-0
7.44
2-2-0
7.50
3-0-1
6.66
 —
1-1-2
4.20
Zira
2-1-1
7.17
4-0-0
8.94
2-0-2
7.07
1-0-3
3.31
1-3-0
6.62
4-0-0
8.39
3-0-1
8.32
4-0-0
7.72
2-1-1
6.67
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.83 +10.3
Allowed 0.88 -13.2
Differential 0.95 +6.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%12.50%5.83%3.33%1.39%0.83%32.22%
112.50%14.44%5.00%1.94%1.67%—35.56%
25.83%5.00%4.44%2.22%0.83%0.28%18.61%
33.33%1.94%2.22%0.56%0.28%—8.33%
41.39%1.67%0.83%0.28%——4.17%
5+0.83%—0.28%———1.11%
Total32.22%35.56%18.61%8.33%4.17%1.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.20 +0.00
SD 1.17 1.17 1.71
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
125.00%22.22%—2.78%2.78%—52.78%
28.33%5.56%2.78%———16.67%
3——2.78%———2.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total44.44%38.89%11.11%2.78%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 0.81 +0.14
SD 0.75 0.95 1.17
CV 0.80 1.18 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%8.33%11.11%13.89%8.33%2.78%55.56%
113.89%5.56%8.33%———27.78%
2——5.56%2.78%——8.33%
3——2.78%———2.78%
4———2.78%——2.78%
5+——2.78%———2.78%
Total25.00%13.89%30.56%19.44%8.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.81 -1.03
SD 1.20 1.39 1.84
CV 1.54 0.77 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%11.11%8.33%5.56%2.78%—36.11%
15.56%19.44%2.78%———27.78%
22.78%13.89%8.33%—2.78%—27.78%
32.78%2.78%——2.78%—8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.44%47.22%19.44%5.56%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.36 -0.28
SD 1.00 1.13 1.49
CV 0.92 0.83 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%————8.33%
113.89%8.33%2.78%———25.00%
211.11%2.78%—2.78%——16.67%
316.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
45.56%8.33%————13.89%
5+8.33%—————8.33%
Total61.11%27.78%8.33%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 0.53 +1.86
SD 1.44 0.77 1.68
CV 0.60 1.47 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%2.78%———19.44%
18.33%27.78%2.78%2.78%——41.67%
22.78%2.78%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%2.78%——13.89%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total19.44%44.44%25.00%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.28 +0.11
SD 1.05 0.91 1.01
CV 0.76 0.72 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%19.44%5.56%5.56%—2.78%44.44%
12.78%16.67%8.33%2.78%8.33%—38.89%
25.56%——5.56%2.78%—13.89%
3———————
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total22.22%36.11%13.89%13.89%11.11%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.64 -0.86
SD 0.90 1.42 1.66
CV 1.15 0.86 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%8.33%5.56%——41.67%
111.11%11.11%5.56%2.78%——30.56%
25.56%5.56%8.33%5.56%——25.00%
3—2.78%————2.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%41.67%22.22%13.89%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.28 -0.39
SD 0.89 0.97 1.29
CV 1.00 0.76 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%25.00%13.89%2.78%—2.78%52.78%
15.56%2.78%2.78%5.56%2.78%—19.44%
25.56%8.33%2.78%—2.78%—19.44%
32.78%——2.78%——5.56%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%19.44%11.11%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.47 -0.61
SD 1.10 1.28 1.71
CV 1.28 0.87 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%2.78%———19.44%
119.44%19.44%11.11%—2.78%—52.78%
2—8.33%5.56%——2.78%16.67%
32.78%—2.78%———5.56%
42.78%—2.78%———5.56%
5+———————
Total36.11%33.33%25.00%—2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.08 +0.17
SD 1.02 1.16 1.38
CV 0.82 1.07 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%11.11%——2.78%—16.67%
119.44%11.11%5.56%2.78%——38.89%
216.67%2.78%————19.44%
38.33%2.78%2.78%———13.89%
42.78%5.56%2.78%———11.11%
5+———————
Total50.00%33.33%11.11%2.78%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.75 +0.89
SD 1.25 0.97 1.69
CV 0.76 1.29 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Qarabag 1820 89 81.53 +7.47 88.0% 63 72 77 81 85 93 99
Zira 1681 74 63.74 +10.26 92.0% 48 52 58 64 68 75 88
Sabah 1520 48 54.23 -6.23 22.0% 31 41 49 54 60 65 71
Turan Tovuz 1508 55 53.91 +1.09 60.0% 39 41 49 54 59 65 68
Araz-Naxcivan 1497 58 48.58 +9.42 88.0% 30 36 42 48 55 61 71
Neftchi Baku 1483 43 48.29 -5.29 22.0% 29 36 44 48 53 58 64
Sumgayit 1378 33 42.51 -9.51 12.0% 28 30 38 42 47 56 63
Shamakhi 1370 36 34.54 +1.46 68.0% 19 24 30 34 39 47 52
Kapaz 1318 32 29.22 +2.78 74.0% 15 18 25 29 33 40 46
Sabail 1292 22 36.19 -14.19 4.0% 20 25 32 36 40 47 56

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7.5% * Slight Edge: 7.5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.89%
Slight Edge
40.56%27.78%31.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 30.96 Elo pts.
194 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.18 goals
Neutral
-2+0.16+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.34 * Runaway: 0.34 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.1
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
94%
Qarabag, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.42/gm
Runaway
00.450.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.71 * Some Luck: 5.71 to 8.57 * Lucky: 8.57 to 11.42 * Wild Swing: 11.42 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.79 * Close: 0.79 to 1.19 * Off: 1.19 to 1.58 * Way Off: 1.58 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.87 points
Some Luck
07.1418
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
00.992
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
92.00%
Zira
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
4.00%
Sabail
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.21 * Even: 0.21 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.15 * Moderate Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Strong Separation: 2.3 to 2.6 * Wide Separation: 2.6 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 73.5% * Slight Edge: 73.5% to 77.5% * Clear Edge: 77.5% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92% * Clear Edge: 92% to 97% * Strong Edge: 97% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59% * Some Drama: 59% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 67% * Very Frequent: 67% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14% * Occasional: 14% to 17.5% * Frequent: 17.5% to 21.5% * Very Frequent: 21.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Even
00.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 164.23
2.65
Wide Separation
12.152.63.25
Interquartile Edge
70%
Even
50%73.5%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
95%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
68%
Very Frequent
0%62%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Occasional
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Slight Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.19
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.44
Weak Carryover
00.470.651
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Shaky Favorites
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.64
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.98
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.062
Well Within Noise
00.1280.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Qarabag94.00%6.00%————————
Zira6.00%56.00%24.00%7.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%———
Araz-Naxcivan—5.00%14.00%16.00%19.00%18.00%18.00%7.00%3.00%—
Turan Tovuz—13.00%26.00%28.00%18.00%10.00%4.00%1.00%——
Sabah—17.00%25.00%26.00%10.00%14.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%—
Neftchi Baku—3.00%10.00%12.00%28.00%25.00%15.00%5.00%2.00%—
Shamakhi———3.00%4.00%4.00%13.00%25.00%35.00%16.00%
Sumgayit——1.00%7.00%11.00%23.00%25.00%18.00%12.00%3.00%
Kapaz—————1.00%3.00%14.00%15.00%67.00%
Sabail———1.00%5.00%4.00%16.00%28.00%32.00%14.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Araz-Naxcivan 100% —
Neftchi Baku 100% —
Qarabag 100% —
Sabah 100% —
Turan Tovuz 100% —
Zira 100% —
Sumgayit 97.00% 3.00%
Sabail 86.00% 14.00%
Shamakhi 84.00% 16.00%
Kapaz 33.00% 67.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2024-08-02 Qarabag L 1-444.9 1387 1670 11.58% 24.09% 64.33%-1.30 -11.0 0
2024-08-02 @ Araz-Naxcivan W 4-144.9 1670 1387 64.33% 24.09% 11.58%+1.30 +11.0 3
2024-08-03 Kapaz W 2-041.1 1488 1419 48.60% 28.52% 22.88%+0.51 +17.1 3
2024-08-03 @ Sumgayit L 0-241.1 1419 1488 22.88% 28.52% 48.60%-0.51 -17.1 0
2024-08-03 Turan Tovuz D 0-058.4 1545 1477 48.55% 28.53% 22.92%+0.51 -2.0 1
2024-08-03 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-058.4 1477 1545 22.92% 28.53% 48.55%-0.51 +2.0 1
2024-08-04 Sabail W 4-145.5 1534 1438 51.91% 27.94% 20.15%+0.66 +18.8 3
2024-08-04 @ Zira L 1-445.5 1438 1534 20.15% 27.94% 51.91%-0.66 -18.8 0
2024-08-04 Shamakhi D 2-266.1 1537 1373 59.07% 26.06% 14.87%+1.00 -2.5 1
2024-08-04 @ Sabah D 2-266.1 1373 1537 14.87% 26.06% 59.07%-1.00 +2.5 1
2024-08-09 Kapaz W 3-039.5 1681 1402 69.17% 21.83% 9.01%+1.59 +9.9 6
2024-08-09 @ Qarabag L 0-339.5 1402 1681 9.01% 21.83% 69.17%-1.59 -9.9 0
2024-08-10 Neftchi Baku D 1-161.2 1419 1543 23.52% 28.63% 47.85%-0.48 +1.7 1
2024-08-10 @ Sabail D 1-161.2 1543 1419 47.85% 28.63% 23.52%+0.48 -1.7 2
2024-08-10 Shamakhi W 1-043.3 1376 1375 39.72% 29.37% 30.91%+0.16 +11.4 3
2024-08-10 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 0-143.3 1375 1376 30.91% 29.37% 39.72%-0.16 -11.4 1
2024-08-11 Sumgayit W 1-051.1 1479 1505 36.01% 29.46% 34.53%+0.03 +12.4 4
2024-08-11 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-151.1 1505 1479 34.53% 29.46% 36.01%-0.03 -12.4 3
2024-08-11 Zira L 0-252.2 1535 1553 37.06% 29.45% 33.49%+0.06 -24.6 1
2024-08-11 @ Sabah W 2-052.2 1553 1535 33.49% 29.45% 37.06%-0.06 +24.5 6
2024-08-17 Sabail W 2-150.7 1493 1421 48.98% 28.46% 22.55%+0.53 +8.4 6
2024-08-17 @ Sumgayit L 1-250.7 1421 1493 22.55% 28.46% 48.98%-0.53 -8.4 1
2024-08-17 Turan Tovuz L 0-339.8 1392 1491 26.31% 29.01% 44.67%-0.35 -27.7 0
2024-08-17 @ Kapaz W 3-039.8 1491 1392 44.67% 29.01% 26.31%+0.35 +27.7 7
2024-08-18 Sabah L 0-252.9 1542 1510 43.87% 29.09% 27.04%+0.32 -27.9 2
2024-08-18 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-052.9 1510 1542 27.04% 29.09% 43.87%-0.32 +27.9 4
2024-08-23 Kapaz W 4-036.5 1412 1364 45.99% 28.87% 25.14%+0.41 +34.9 4
2024-08-23 @ Sabail L 0-436.5 1364 1412 25.14% 28.87% 45.99%-0.41 -34.9 0
2024-08-24 Neftchi Baku D 1-159.1 1387 1514 23.32% 28.60% 48.08%-0.49 +1.7 4
2024-08-24 @ Araz-Naxcivan D 1-159.1 1514 1387 48.08% 28.60% 23.32%+0.49 -1.7 3
2024-08-24 Turan Tovuz L 0-164.8 1691 1519 59.77% 25.83% 14.40%+1.04 -19.2 6
2024-08-24 @ Qarabag W 1-064.8 1519 1691 14.40% 25.83% 59.77%-1.04 +19.2 10
2024-08-25 Shamakhi L 0-156.8 1578 1364 63.70% 24.35% 11.95%+1.26 -20.2 6
2024-08-25 @ Zira W 1-056.8 1364 1578 11.95% 24.35% 63.70%-1.26 +20.2 4
2024-08-25 Sumgayit W 3-153.0 1538 1501 44.64% 29.02% 26.34%+0.35 +16.5 7
2024-08-25 @ Sabah L 1-353.0 1501 1538 26.34% 29.02% 44.64%-0.35 -16.5 6
2024-08-30 Araz-Naxcivan L 0-152.0 1484 1389 51.73% 27.97% 20.30%+0.65 -16.9 6
2024-08-30 @ Sumgayit W 1-052.0 1389 1484 20.30% 27.97% 51.73%-0.65 +17.0 7
2024-08-30 Sabail W 1-046.6 1538 1447 51.27% 28.06% 20.67%+0.63 +8.3 13
2024-08-30 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-146.6 1447 1538 20.67% 28.06% 51.27%-0.63 -8.3 4
2024-08-31 Neftchi Baku D 0-053.8 1384 1512 23.17% 28.57% 48.26%-0.50 +2.0 5
2024-08-31 @ Shamakhi D 0-053.8 1512 1384 48.26% 28.57% 23.17%+0.50 -2.0 4
2024-08-31 Sabah L 2-351.6 1329 1555 14.93% 26.09% 58.98%-1.00 -5.5 0
2024-08-31 @ Kapaz W 3-251.6 1555 1329 58.98% 26.09% 14.93%+1.00 +5.5 10
2024-09-01 Qarabag L 1-358.0 1558 1672 24.67% 28.81% 46.53%-0.43 -15.7 6
2024-09-01 @ Zira W 3-158.0 1672 1558 46.53% 28.81% 24.67%+0.43 +15.7 9
2024-09-13 Kapaz W 1-039.8 1406 1324 50.20% 28.26% 21.54%+0.58 +8.6 10
2024-09-13 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 0-139.8 1324 1406 21.54% 28.26% 50.20%-0.58 -8.6 0
2024-09-14 Sabail W 2-152.9 1687 1439 66.70% 23.03% 10.27%+1.44 +4.0 12
2024-09-14 @ Qarabag L 1-252.9 1439 1687 10.27% 23.03% 66.70%-1.44 -4.0 4
2024-09-14 Sumgayit W 1-049.0 1386 1467 28.49% 29.22% 42.29%-0.26 +14.4 8
2024-09-14 @ Shamakhi L 0-149.0 1467 1386 42.29% 29.22% 28.49%+0.26 -14.4 6
2024-09-15 Neftchi Baku W 2-047.8 1542 1510 43.93% 29.09% 26.98%+0.32 +19.5 9
2024-09-15 @ Zira L 0-247.8 1510 1542 26.98% 29.09% 43.93%-0.32 -19.5 4
2024-09-15 Turan Tovuz D 2-272.1 1560 1547 41.51% 29.27% 29.22%+0.23 -0.6 11
2024-09-15 @ Sabah D 2-272.1 1547 1560 29.22% 29.27% 41.51%-0.23 +0.6 14
2024-09-20 Neftchi Baku W 4-044.4 1691 1491 62.51% 24.83% 12.66%+1.19 +18.8 15
2024-09-20 @ Qarabag L 0-444.4 1491 1691 12.66% 24.83% 62.51%-1.19 -18.8 4
2024-09-20 Shamakhi L 0-238.3 1315 1400 28.01% 29.18% 42.81%-0.28 -20.0 0
2024-09-20 @ Kapaz W 2-038.3 1400 1315 42.81% 29.18% 28.01%+0.28 +20.0 11
2024-09-21 Araz-Naxcivan L 1-262.0 1547 1415 55.83% 27.02% 17.15%+0.84 -17.0 14
2024-09-21 @ Turan Tovuz W 2-162.0 1415 1547 17.15% 27.02% 55.83%-0.84 +17.0 13
2024-09-22 Sabah L 2-453.9 1435 1560 23.48% 28.63% 47.89%-0.48 -13.5 4
2024-09-22 @ Sabail W 4-253.9 1560 1435 47.89% 28.63% 23.48%+0.48 +13.5 14
2024-09-22 Zira L 0-245.9 1453 1561 25.29% 28.89% 45.81%-0.40 -18.5 6
2024-09-22 @ Sumgayit W 2-045.9 1561 1453 45.81% 28.89% 25.29%+0.40 +18.5 12
2024-09-27 Sabail W 3-256.1 1432 1421 41.07% 29.30% 29.63%+0.21 +9.9 16
2024-09-27 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 2-356.1 1421 1432 29.63% 29.30% 41.07%-0.21 -9.9 4
2024-09-28 Kapaz W 3-032.0 1580 1295 69.62% 21.60% 8.78%+1.62 +9.6 15
2024-09-28 @ Zira L 0-332.0 1295 1580 8.78% 21.60% 69.62%-1.62 -9.6 0
2024-09-28 Sumgayit D 1-159.1 1472 1435 44.64% 29.02% 26.34%+0.35 -1.3 5
2024-09-28 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-159.1 1435 1472 26.34% 29.02% 44.64%-0.35 +1.3 7
2024-09-29 Sabah W 3-264.4 1710 1573 56.27% 26.90% 16.83%+0.86 +6.2 18
2024-09-29 @ Qarabag L 2-364.4 1573 1710 16.83% 26.90% 56.27%-0.86 -6.2 14
2024-09-29 Turan Tovuz D 2-266.6 1421 1530 25.14% 28.87% 45.99%-0.41 +1.1 12
2024-09-29 @ Shamakhi D 2-266.6 1530 1421 45.99% 28.87% 25.14%+0.41 -1.1 15
2024-10-04 Neftchi Baku W 4-363.0 1286 1471 17.90% 27.28% 54.82%-0.79 +15.5 3
2024-10-04 @ Kapaz L 3-463.0 1471 1286 54.82% 27.28% 17.90%+0.79 -15.5 5
2024-10-05 Araz-Naxcivan D 1-163.4 1567 1442 55.06% 27.22% 17.72%+0.80 -2.7 15
2024-10-05 @ Sabah D 1-163.4 1442 1567 17.72% 27.22% 55.06%-0.80 +2.7 17
2024-10-05 Shamakhi W 2-042.0 1411 1422 38.22% 29.42% 32.36%+0.11 +22.3 7
2024-10-05 @ Sabail L 0-242.0 1422 1411 32.36% 29.42% 38.22%-0.11 -22.3 12
2024-10-06 Qarabag L 0-148.4 1436 1716 11.71% 24.18% 64.11%-1.28 -4.8 7
2024-10-06 @ Sumgayit W 1-048.4 1716 1436 64.11% 24.18% 11.71%+1.28 +4.8 21
2024-10-06 Zira W 1-057.3 1529 1590 31.19% 29.38% 39.43%-0.15 +13.6 18
2024-10-06 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-157.3 1590 1529 39.43% 29.38% 31.19%+0.15 -13.6 15
2024-10-18 Qarabag L 0-536.2 1301 1721 6.39% 18.60% 75.01%-2.00 -10.7 3
2024-10-18 @ Kapaz W 5-036.2 1721 1301 75.01% 18.60% 6.39%+2.00 +10.7 24
2024-10-19 Araz-Naxcivan L 0-146.1 1399 1444 33.28% 29.44% 37.28%-0.07 -12.0 12
2024-10-19 @ Shamakhi W 1-046.1 1444 1399 37.28% 29.44% 33.28%+0.07 +12.1 20
2024-10-19 Sabail W 3-148.2 1455 1434 42.56% 29.20% 28.24%+0.27 +17.5 8
2024-10-19 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-348.2 1434 1455 28.24% 29.20% 42.56%-0.27 -17.5 7
2024-10-20 Sabah D 1-167.2 1576 1564 41.24% 29.29% 29.47%+0.22 -0.8 16
2024-10-20 @ Zira D 1-167.2 1564 1576 29.47% 29.29% 41.24%-0.22 +0.8 16
2024-10-20 Turan Tovuz L 2-453.6 1431 1543 24.91% 28.84% 46.25%-0.42 -14.2 7
2024-10-20 @ Sumgayit W 4-253.6 1543 1431 46.25% 28.84% 24.91%+0.42 +14.2 21
2024-10-25 Kapaz W 2-142.9 1557 1290 68.17% 22.33% 9.50%+1.53 +3.6 24
2024-10-25 @ Turan Tovuz L 1-242.9 1290 1557 9.50% 22.33% 68.17%-1.53 -3.6 3
2024-10-26 Sumgayit L 0-147.6 1416 1417 39.55% 29.38% 31.07%+0.16 -13.7 7
2024-10-26 @ Sabail W 1-047.6 1417 1416 31.07% 29.38% 39.55%-0.16 +13.7 10
2024-10-26 Zira D 1-163.8 1456 1575 24.15% 28.73% 47.12%-0.45 +1.6 21
2024-10-26 @ Araz-Naxcivan D 1-163.8 1575 1456 47.12% 28.73% 24.15%+0.45 -1.6 17
2024-10-27 Neftchi Baku D 0-059.1 1565 1473 51.41% 28.04% 20.55%+0.64 -2.5 17
2024-10-27 @ Sabah D 0-059.1 1473 1565 20.55% 28.04% 51.41%-0.64 +2.5 9
2024-10-27 Shamakhi W 3-039.2 1732 1387 74.07% 19.15% 6.78%+1.93 +7.1 27
2024-10-27 @ Qarabag L 0-339.2 1387 1732 6.78% 19.15% 74.07%-1.93 -7.1 12
2024-11-01 Araz-Naxcivan L 0-151.4 1475 1458 41.96% 29.24% 28.79%+0.25 -14.3 9
2024-11-01 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-051.4 1458 1475 28.79% 29.24% 41.96%-0.25 +14.3 24
2024-11-01 Qarabag D 0-065.9 1561 1739 18.46% 27.46% 54.08%-0.76 +2.9 25
2024-11-01 @ Turan Tovuz D 0-065.9 1739 1561 54.08% 27.46% 18.46%+0.76 -2.9 28
2024-11-02 Zira L 0-240.6 1380 1574 17.24% 27.05% 55.71%-0.84 -13.4 12
2024-11-02 @ Shamakhi W 2-040.6 1574 1380 55.71% 27.05% 17.24%+0.84 +13.4 20
2024-11-03 Sabah W 1-055.4 1431 1563 22.74% 28.50% 48.76%-0.52 +16.1 13
2024-11-03 @ Sumgayit L 0-155.4 1563 1431 48.76% 28.50% 22.74%+0.52 -16.1 17
2024-11-03 Sabail W 1-046.9 1287 1403 24.47% 28.78% 46.75%-0.44 +15.6 6
2024-11-03 @ Kapaz L 0-146.9 1403 1287 46.75% 28.78% 24.47%+0.44 -15.6 7
2024-11-06 Araz-Naxcivan L 0-159.1 1587 1472 53.89% 27.51% 18.60%+0.75 -17.5 20
2024-11-06 @ Zira W 1-059.1 1472 1587 18.60% 27.51% 53.89%-0.75 +17.5 27
2024-11-08 Shamakhi D 2-263.0 1461 1367 51.57% 28.01% 20.42%+0.64 -1.7 10
2024-11-08 @ Neftchi Baku D 2-263.0 1367 1461 20.42% 28.01% 51.57%-0.64 +1.7 13
2024-11-09 Kapaz D 2-265.0 1546 1302 66.32% 23.21% 10.47%+1.41 -3.2 18
2024-11-09 @ Sabah D 2-265.0 1302 1546 10.47% 23.21% 66.32%-1.41 +3.2 7
2024-11-09 Turan Tovuz D 1-161.1 1387 1563 18.60% 27.51% 53.89%-0.75 +2.6 8
2024-11-09 @ Sabail D 1-161.1 1563 1387 53.89% 27.51% 18.60%+0.75 -2.6 26
2024-11-10 Sumgayit W 1-046.6 1490 1447 45.40% 28.94% 25.66%+0.38 +9.9 30
2024-11-10 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 0-146.6 1447 1490 25.66% 28.94% 45.40%-0.38 -9.9 13
2024-11-10 Zira W 4-047.6 1736 1569 59.29% 25.99% 14.72%+1.02 +21.8 31
2024-11-10 @ Qarabag L 0-447.6 1569 1736 14.72% 25.99% 59.29%-1.02 -21.8 20
2024-11-22 Araz-Naxcivan L 0-236.1 1306 1500 17.18% 27.03% 55.79%-0.84 -13.3 7
2024-11-22 @ Kapaz W 2-036.1 1500 1306 55.79% 27.03% 17.18%+0.84 +13.3 33
2024-11-23 Qarabag L 0-340.9 1390 1758 8.00% 20.72% 71.28%-1.73 -8.6 8
2024-11-23 @ Sabail W 3-040.9 1758 1390 71.28% 20.72% 8.00%+1.73 +8.6 34
2024-11-23 Zira W 2-160.5 1459 1547 27.62% 29.15% 43.23%-0.30 +13.8 13
2024-11-23 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-260.5 1547 1459 43.23% 29.15% 27.62%+0.30 -13.8 20
2024-11-24 Sabah D 1-166.2 1561 1543 42.05% 29.24% 28.72%+0.25 -0.9 27
2024-11-24 @ Turan Tovuz D 1-166.2 1543 1561 28.72% 29.24% 42.05%-0.25 +0.9 19
2024-11-24 Shamakhi W 2-147.7 1437 1368 48.53% 28.53% 22.93%+0.51 +8.5 16
2024-11-24 @ Sumgayit L 1-247.7 1368 1437 22.93% 28.53% 48.53%-0.51 -8.5 13
2024-11-29 Sabail W 1-042.1 1544 1381 58.96% 26.10% 14.95%+1.00 +6.2 22
2024-11-29 @ Sabah L 0-142.1 1381 1544 14.95% 26.10% 58.96%-1.00 -6.2 8
2024-11-29 Turan Tovuz W 1-055.3 1513 1560 33.01% 29.44% 37.55%-0.08 +13.1 36
2024-11-29 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 0-155.3 1560 1513 37.55% 29.44% 33.01%+0.08 -13.1 27
2024-11-30 Kapaz L 0-147.0 1360 1292 48.46% 28.54% 23.00%+0.51 -16.0 13
2024-11-30 @ Shamakhi W 1-047.0 1292 1360 23.00% 28.54% 48.46%-0.51 +16.0 10
2024-11-30 Sumgayit W 4-146.1 1534 1445 50.93% 28.13% 20.94%+0.61 +19.4 23
2024-11-30 @ Zira L 1-446.1 1445 1534 20.94% 28.13% 50.93%-0.61 -19.4 16
2024-12-01 Qarabag L 0-344.8 1473 1766 11.06% 23.69% 65.26%-1.35 -12.4 13
2024-12-01 @ Neftchi Baku W 3-044.8 1766 1473 65.26% 23.69% 11.06%+1.35 +12.4 37
2024-12-07 Araz-Naxcivan L 0-240.2 1375 1526 20.83% 28.10% 51.07%-0.62 -15.8 8
2024-12-07 @ Sabail W 2-040.2 1526 1375 51.07% 28.10% 20.83%+0.62 +15.8 39
2024-12-07 Qarabag D 1-171.8 1550 1779 14.73% 25.99% 59.28%-1.02 +3.3 23
2024-12-07 @ Sabah D 1-171.8 1779 1550 59.28% 25.99% 14.73%+1.02 -3.3 38
2024-12-08 Neftchi Baku W 2-044.6 1426 1460 34.75% 29.46% 35.79%-0.02 +23.9 19
2024-12-08 @ Sumgayit L 0-244.6 1460 1426 35.79% 29.46% 34.75%+0.02 -23.9 13
2024-12-08 Zira L 0-434.2 1308 1553 13.70% 25.45% 60.85%-1.10 -20.3 10
2024-12-08 @ Kapaz W 4-034.2 1553 1308 60.85% 25.45% 13.70%+1.10 +20.3 26
2024-12-09 Shamakhi W 3-250.7 1547 1344 62.72% 24.75% 12.53%+1.20 +4.6 30
2024-12-09 @ Turan Tovuz L 2-350.7 1344 1547 12.53% 24.75% 62.72%-1.20 -4.6 13
2024-12-14 Sabah L 0-156.2 1542 1554 38.01% 29.43% 32.56%+0.10 -13.3 39
2024-12-14 @ Araz-Naxcivan W 1-056.2 1554 1542 32.56% 29.43% 38.01%-0.10 +13.3 26
2024-12-14 Sabail D 0-049.1 1339 1359 36.88% 29.45% 33.67%+0.06 -0.2 14
2024-12-14 @ Shamakhi D 0-049.1 1359 1339 33.67% 29.45% 36.88%-0.06 +0.2 9
2024-12-15 Kapaz W 2-143.5 1436 1288 57.47% 26.56% 15.97%+0.92 +6.2 16
2024-12-15 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-243.5 1288 1436 15.97% 26.56% 57.47%-0.92 -6.2 10
2024-12-15 Turan Tovuz D 0-061.7 1573 1552 42.62% 29.20% 28.18%+0.27 -1.1 27
2024-12-15 @ Zira D 0-061.7 1552 1573 28.18% 29.20% 42.62%-0.27 +1.1 31
2024-12-16 Sumgayit W 5-042.9 1776 1450 72.72% 19.92% 7.36%+1.83 +12.6 41
2024-12-16 @ Qarabag L 0-542.9 1450 1776 7.36% 19.92% 72.72%-1.83 -12.6 19
2024-12-19 Qarabag L 0-143.9 1339 1788 5.62% 17.41% 76.97%-2.15 -2.1 14
2024-12-19 @ Shamakhi W 1-043.9 1788 1339 76.97% 17.41% 5.62%+2.15 +2.1 44
2024-12-20 Sumgayit D 0-049.8 1282 1437 20.47% 28.02% 51.52%-0.64 +2.5 11
2024-12-20 @ Kapaz D 0-049.8 1437 1282 51.52% 28.02% 20.47%+0.64 -2.5 20
2024-12-21 Neftchi Baku D 1-162.7 1553 1443 53.37% 27.63% 19.00%+0.72 -2.5 32
2024-12-21 @ Turan Tovuz D 1-162.7 1443 1553 19.00% 27.63% 53.37%-0.72 +2.5 17
2024-12-21 Zira L 0-142.7 1359 1572 15.77% 26.47% 57.76%-0.94 -6.5 9
2024-12-21 @ Sabail W 1-042.7 1572 1359 57.76% 26.47% 15.77%+0.94 +6.5 30
2024-12-22 Araz-Naxcivan W 2-047.1 1790 1529 67.76% 22.53% 9.71%+1.50 +7.4 47
2024-12-22 @ Qarabag L 0-247.1 1529 1790 9.71% 22.53% 67.76%-1.50 -7.4 39
2024-12-22 Sabah W 3-157.1 1337 1567 14.62% 25.94% 59.43%-1.02 +31.1 17
2024-12-22 @ Shamakhi L 1-357.1 1567 1337 59.43% 25.94% 14.62%+1.02 -31.1 26
2025-01-17 Shamakhi W 3-255.0 1798 1368 79.62% 15.73% 4.66%+2.37 +1.5 50
2025-01-17 @ Qarabag L 2-355.0 1368 1798 4.66% 15.73% 79.62%-2.37 -1.5 17
2025-01-18 Araz-Naxcivan W 1-051.9 1579 1521 47.22% 28.72% 24.06%+0.46 +9.4 33
2025-01-18 @ Zira L 0-151.9 1521 1579 24.06% 28.72% 47.22%-0.46 -9.4 39
2025-01-18 Sabail L 0-246.0 1435 1353 50.19% 28.26% 21.55%+0.58 -31.1 20
2025-01-18 @ Sumgayit W 2-046.0 1353 1435 21.55% 28.26% 50.19%-0.58 +31.1 12
2025-01-19 Sabah D 1-161.8 1445 1536 27.35% 29.12% 43.52%-0.31 +1.1 18
2025-01-19 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-161.8 1536 1445 43.52% 29.12% 27.35%+0.31 -1.1 27
2025-01-19 Turan Tovuz W 5-255.1 1284 1550 12.48% 24.71% 62.80%-1.21 +39.9 14
2025-01-19 @ Kapaz L 2-555.1 1550 1284 62.80% 24.71% 12.48%+1.21 -39.9 32
2025-01-24 Zira L 1-249.3 1367 1588 15.18% 26.21% 58.61%-0.98 -5.9 17
2025-01-24 @ Shamakhi W 2-149.3 1588 1367 58.61% 26.21% 15.18%+0.98 +5.9 36
2025-01-25 Kapaz W 1-040.3 1384 1324 47.47% 28.69% 23.85%+0.47 +9.4 15
2025-01-25 @ Sabail L 0-140.3 1324 1384 23.85% 28.69% 47.47%-0.47 -9.4 14
2025-01-25 Sumgayit D 0-055.7 1535 1404 55.68% 27.06% 17.26%+0.83 -3.2 28
2025-01-25 @ Sabah D 0-055.7 1404 1535 17.26% 27.06% 55.68%-0.83 +3.2 21
2025-01-26 Neftchi Baku W 2-152.5 1512 1446 48.21% 28.58% 23.21%+0.50 +8.6 42
2025-01-26 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 1-252.5 1446 1512 23.21% 28.58% 48.21%-0.50 -8.6 18
2025-01-26 Turan Tovuz L 1-274.1 1799 1510 69.95% 21.43% 8.63%+1.64 -20.4 50
2025-01-26 @ Qarabag W 2-174.1 1510 1799 8.63% 21.43% 69.95%-1.64 +20.4 35
2025-01-31 Sabah W 3-263.6 1315 1532 15.52% 26.36% 58.11%-0.96 +16.7 17
2025-01-31 @ Kapaz L 2-363.6 1532 1315 58.11% 26.36% 15.52%+0.96 -16.7 28
2025-01-31 Shamakhi W 1-041.2 1438 1361 49.59% 28.36% 22.05%+0.56 +8.8 21
2025-01-31 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-141.2 1361 1438 22.05% 28.36% 49.59%-0.56 -8.8 17
2025-02-01 Araz-Naxcivan D 0-054.8 1407 1521 24.68% 28.81% 46.51%-0.43 +1.7 22
2025-02-01 @ Sumgayit D 0-054.8 1521 1407 46.51% 28.81% 24.68%+0.43 -1.7 43
2025-02-01 Sabail D 1-160.4 1531 1393 56.34% 26.88% 16.78%+0.87 -2.9 36
2025-02-01 @ Turan Tovuz D 1-160.4 1393 1531 16.78% 26.88% 56.34%-0.87 +2.9 16
2025-02-02 Qarabag W 3-276.9 1594 1779 17.95% 27.30% 54.75%-0.79 +15.9 39
2025-02-02 @ Zira L 2-376.9 1779 1594 54.75% 27.30% 17.95%+0.79 -15.9 50
2025-02-09 Sumgayit W 1-045.8 1352 1408 31.70% 29.40% 38.90%-0.13 +13.5 20
2025-02-09 @ Shamakhi L 0-145.8 1408 1352 38.90% 29.40% 31.70%+0.13 -13.5 22
2025-02-09 Turan Tovuz W 2-158.8 1515 1528 37.84% 29.43% 32.72%+0.09 +11.2 31
2025-02-09 @ Sabah L 1-258.8 1528 1515 32.72% 29.43% 37.84%-0.09 -11.2 36
2025-02-10 Kapaz D 0-053.4 1519 1332 61.27% 25.30% 13.43%+1.12 -4.0 44
2025-02-10 @ Araz-Naxcivan D 0-053.4 1332 1519 13.43% 25.30% 61.27%-1.12 +4.0 18
2025-02-10 Neftchi Baku L 1-266.1 1610 1446 59.00% 26.08% 14.92%+1.00 -17.9 39
2025-02-10 @ Zira W 2-166.1 1446 1610 14.92% 26.08% 59.00%-1.00 +17.9 24
2025-02-11 Sabail W 5-040.5 1763 1396 75.60% 18.24% 6.15%+2.04 +10.2 53
2025-02-11 @ Qarabag L 0-540.5 1396 1763 6.15% 18.24% 75.60%-2.04 -10.2 16
2025-02-15 Zira L 0-339.9 1395 1592 16.93% 26.94% 56.13%-0.86 -19.1 22
2025-02-15 @ Sumgayit W 3-039.9 1592 1395 56.13% 26.94% 16.93%+0.86 +19.1 42
2025-02-16 Araz-Naxcivan W 1-051.7 1516 1515 39.88% 29.36% 30.76%+0.17 +11.4 39
2025-02-16 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-151.7 1515 1516 30.76% 29.36% 39.88%-0.17 -11.4 44
2025-02-16 Qarabag L 0-149.7 1464 1773 10.35% 23.11% 66.54%-1.43 -4.2 24
2025-02-16 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-049.7 1773 1464 66.54% 23.11% 10.35%+1.43 +4.2 56
2025-02-17 Sabah D 0-054.4 1386 1526 21.92% 28.34% 49.74%-0.56 +2.2 17
2025-02-17 @ Sabail D 0-054.4 1526 1386 49.74% 28.34% 21.92%+0.56 -2.2 32
2025-02-17 Shamakhi D 1-154.3 1336 1365 35.44% 29.46% 35.09%+0.01 -0.0 19
2025-02-17 @ Kapaz D 1-154.3 1365 1336 35.09% 29.46% 35.44%-0.01 +0.0 21
2025-02-21 Sumgayit W 1-041.9 1460 1376 50.44% 28.22% 21.34%+0.59 +8.5 27
2025-02-21 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-141.9 1376 1460 21.34% 28.22% 50.44%-0.59 -8.5 22
2025-02-22 Sabah D 1-172.5 1777 1524 67.09% 22.85% 10.06%+1.46 -4.4 57
2025-02-22 @ Qarabag D 1-172.5 1524 1777 10.06% 22.85% 67.09%-1.46 +4.4 33
2025-02-22 Sabail D 0-054.0 1503 1388 53.97% 27.49% 18.54%+0.75 -2.9 45
2025-02-22 @ Araz-Naxcivan D 0-054.0 1388 1503 18.54% 27.49% 53.97%-0.75 +2.9 18
2025-02-23 Turan Tovuz L 0-143.0 1365 1528 19.82% 27.85% 52.33%-0.68 -8.0 21
2025-02-23 @ Shamakhi W 1-043.0 1528 1365 52.33% 27.85% 19.82%+0.68 +8.0 42
2025-02-24 Kapaz W 2-036.4 1611 1336 68.91% 21.96% 9.13%+1.58 +6.9 45
2025-02-24 @ Zira L 0-236.4 1336 1611 9.13% 21.96% 68.91%-1.58 -6.9 19
2025-03-03 Qarabag L 0-241.7 1367 1773 6.81% 19.19% 74.00%-1.93 -4.9 22
2025-03-03 @ Sumgayit W 2-041.7 1773 1367 74.00% 19.19% 6.81%+1.93 +4.9 60
2025-03-03 Shamakhi L 0-243.7 1391 1357 44.16% 29.06% 26.77%+0.33 -28.0 18
2025-03-03 @ Sabail W 2-043.7 1357 1391 26.77% 29.06% 44.16%-0.33 +28.1 24
2025-03-04 Araz-Naxcivan D 2-269.4 1528 1500 43.39% 29.13% 27.48%+0.30 -0.8 34
2025-03-04 @ Sabah D 2-269.4 1500 1528 27.48% 29.13% 43.39%-0.30 +0.8 46
2025-03-04 Zira L 0-251.5 1536 1618 28.36% 29.21% 42.43%-0.26 -20.2 42
2025-03-04 @ Turan Tovuz W 2-051.5 1618 1536 42.43% 29.21% 28.36%+0.26 +20.2 48
2025-03-05 Neftchi Baku W 1-049.5 1329 1469 21.95% 28.34% 49.71%-0.56 +16.4 22
2025-03-05 @ Kapaz L 0-149.5 1469 1329 49.71% 28.34% 21.95%+0.56 -16.4 27
2025-03-08 Qarabag L 1-353.6 1501 1778 11.92% 24.33% 63.75%-1.26 -8.0 46
2025-03-08 @ Araz-Naxcivan W 3-153.6 1778 1501 63.75% 24.33% 11.92%+1.26 +8.0 63
2025-03-09 Sabah W 1-052.8 1385 1527 21.74% 28.30% 49.96%-0.57 +16.4 27
2025-03-09 @ Shamakhi L 0-152.8 1527 1385 49.96% 28.30% 21.74%+0.57 -16.5 34
2025-03-09 Sabail W 1-041.9 1638 1363 68.90% 21.97% 9.14%+1.58 +3.7 51
2025-03-09 @ Zira L 0-141.9 1363 1638 9.14% 21.97% 68.90%-1.58 -3.7 18
2025-03-10 Kapaz W 3-036.7 1362 1345 42.00% 29.24% 28.76%+0.25 +29.7 25
2025-03-10 @ Sumgayit L 0-336.7 1345 1362 28.76% 29.24% 42.00%-0.25 -29.7 22
2025-03-10 Turan Tovuz D 1-161.2 1452 1516 30.79% 29.36% 39.85%-0.17 +0.6 28
2025-03-10 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-161.2 1516 1452 39.85% 29.36% 30.79%+0.17 -0.6 43
2025-03-14 Shamakhi D 1-159.0 1493 1402 51.28% 28.06% 20.66%+0.63 -2.2 47
2025-03-14 @ Araz-Naxcivan D 1-159.0 1402 1493 20.66% 28.06% 51.28%-0.63 +2.2 28
2025-03-15 Qarabag D 0-064.7 1315 1786 5.12% 16.56% 78.32%-2.26 +6.2 23
2025-03-15 @ Kapaz D 0-064.7 1786 1315 78.32% 16.56% 5.12%+2.26 -6.2 64
2025-03-15 Zira D 1-167.8 1511 1642 22.83% 28.51% 48.66%-0.52 +1.8 35
2025-03-15 @ Sabah D 1-167.8 1642 1511 48.66% 28.51% 22.83%+0.52 -1.8 52
2025-03-16 Neftchi Baku L 1-249.3 1359 1453 27.00% 29.09% 43.91%-0.32 -9.7 18
2025-03-16 @ Sabail W 2-149.3 1453 1359 43.91% 29.09% 27.00%+0.32 +9.7 31
2025-03-16 Sumgayit L 1-259.8 1515 1392 54.81% 27.28% 17.91%+0.79 -16.8 43
2025-03-16 @ Turan Tovuz W 2-159.8 1392 1515 17.91% 27.28% 54.81%-0.79 +16.8 28
2025-03-28 Qarabag L 1-450.7 1498 1780 11.67% 24.15% 64.19%-1.29 -11.1 43
2025-03-28 @ Turan Tovuz W 4-150.7 1780 1498 64.19% 24.15% 11.67%+1.29 +11.1 67
2025-03-29 Araz-Naxcivan D 1-160.6 1463 1491 35.62% 29.46% 34.92%+0.01 -0.0 32
2025-03-29 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-160.6 1491 1463 34.92% 29.46% 35.62%-0.01 +0.1 48
2025-03-29 Sabah D 3-369.0 1409 1513 25.79% 28.95% 45.26%-0.38 +0.8 29
2025-03-29 @ Sumgayit D 3-369.0 1513 1409 45.26% 28.95% 25.79%+0.38 -0.8 36
2025-03-30 Sabail D 1-153.9 1322 1350 35.70% 29.46% 34.83%+0.02 -0.0 24
2025-03-30 @ Kapaz D 1-153.9 1350 1322 34.83% 29.46% 35.70%-0.02 +0.0 19
2025-03-30 Shamakhi W 3-039.2 1640 1404 65.66% 23.51% 10.83%+1.37 +12.2 55
2025-03-30 @ Zira L 0-339.2 1404 1640 10.83% 23.51% 65.66%-1.37 -12.2 28
2025-04-05 Turan Tovuz D 0-052.1 1350 1487 22.18% 28.39% 49.43%-0.55 +2.2 20
2025-04-05 @ Sabail D 0-052.1 1487 1350 49.43% 28.39% 22.18%+0.55 -2.2 44
2025-04-06 Kapaz L 0-153.0 1512 1322 61.56% 25.19% 13.25%+1.14 -19.7 36
2025-04-06 @ Sabah W 1-053.0 1322 1512 13.25% 25.19% 61.56%-1.14 +19.6 27
2025-04-06 Zira W 1-054.9 1791 1652 56.41% 26.86% 16.73%+0.87 +6.9 70
2025-04-06 @ Qarabag L 0-154.9 1652 1791 16.73% 26.86% 56.41%-0.87 -6.9 55
2025-04-07 Neftchi Baku L 0-241.8 1392 1463 29.85% 29.31% 40.84%-0.20 -21.0 28
2025-04-07 @ Shamakhi W 2-041.8 1463 1392 40.84% 29.31% 29.85%+0.20 +21.0 35
2025-04-07 Sumgayit W 2-040.5 1491 1410 50.12% 28.27% 21.61%+0.58 +16.3 51
2025-04-07 @ Araz-Naxcivan L 0-240.5 1410 1491 21.61% 28.27% 50.12%-0.58 -16.3 29
2025-04-11 Qarabag L 1-444.2 1352 1798 5.71% 17.54% 76.75%-2.13 -4.9 20
2025-04-11 @ Sabail W 4-144.2 1798 1352 76.75% 17.54% 5.71%+2.13 +4.9 73
2025-04-12 Sabah W 2-156.1 1485 1492 38.63% 29.41% 31.96%+0.12 +11.0 47
2025-04-12 @ Turan Tovuz L 1-256.1 1492 1485 31.96% 29.41% 38.63%-0.12 -11.0 36
2025-04-12 Shamakhi L 1-253.0 1393 1371 42.70% 29.19% 28.11%+0.27 -13.6 29
2025-04-12 @ Sumgayit W 2-153.0 1371 1393 28.11% 29.19% 42.70%-0.27 +13.7 31
2025-04-13 Araz-Naxcivan D 0-052.6 1341 1507 19.48% 27.76% 52.75%-0.70 +2.7 28
2025-04-13 @ Kapaz D 0-052.6 1507 1341 52.75% 27.76% 19.48%+0.70 -2.7 52
2025-04-13 Zira L 2-457.2 1484 1646 19.86% 27.86% 52.28%-0.67 -11.7 35
2025-04-13 @ Neftchi Baku W 4-257.2 1646 1484 52.28% 27.86% 19.86%+0.67 +11.7 58
2025-04-18 Turan Tovuz D 1-162.4 1505 1496 40.83% 29.31% 29.85%+0.20 -0.7 53
2025-04-18 @ Araz-Naxcivan D 1-162.4 1496 1505 29.85% 29.31% 40.83%-0.20 +0.7 48
2025-04-19 Neftchi Baku W 3-043.1 1802 1472 73.08% 19.72% 7.20%+1.86 +7.6 76
2025-04-19 @ Qarabag L 0-343.1 1472 1802 7.20% 19.72% 73.08%-1.86 -7.6 35
2025-04-19 Sabail W 3-250.9 1481 1347 56.02% 26.97% 17.01%+0.85 +6.3 39
2025-04-19 @ Sabah L 2-350.9 1347 1481 17.01% 26.97% 56.02%-0.85 -6.3 20
2025-04-20 Kapaz W 2-147.3 1385 1344 45.08% 28.97% 25.95%+0.37 +9.4 34
2025-04-20 @ Shamakhi L 1-247.3 1344 1385 25.95% 28.97% 45.08%-0.37 -9.4 28
2025-04-20 Sumgayit W 3-145.6 1657 1380 69.06% 21.88% 9.06%+1.59 +5.9 61
2025-04-20 @ Zira L 1-345.6 1380 1657 9.06% 21.88% 69.06%-1.59 -5.9 29
2025-04-25 Shamakhi D 1-159.0 1497 1394 52.58% 27.80% 19.62%+0.69 -2.4 49
2025-04-25 @ Turan Tovuz D 1-159.0 1394 1497 19.62% 27.80% 52.58%-0.69 +2.4 35
2025-04-26 Zira L 0-142.0 1334 1663 9.48% 22.31% 68.21%-1.53 -3.8 28
2025-04-26 @ Kapaz W 1-042.0 1663 1334 68.21% 22.31% 9.48%+1.53 +3.8 64
2025-04-27 Araz-Naxcivan D 1-157.6 1341 1504 19.74% 27.83% 52.43%-0.68 +2.4 21
2025-04-27 @ Sabail D 1-157.6 1504 1341 52.43% 27.83% 19.74%+0.68 -2.4 54
2025-04-27 Qarabag D 1-172.5 1488 1810 9.75% 22.56% 67.69%-1.50 +4.5 40
2025-04-27 @ Sabah D 1-172.5 1810 1488 67.69% 22.56% 9.75%+1.50 -4.5 77
2025-04-28 Neftchi Baku D 2-262.9 1374 1464 27.38% 29.13% 43.49%-0.31 +0.8 30
2025-04-28 @ Sumgayit D 2-262.9 1464 1374 43.49% 29.13% 27.38%+0.31 -0.8 36
2025-05-02 Turan Tovuz W 1-050.0 1667 1494 59.88% 25.79% 14.33%+1.05 +5.9 67
2025-05-02 @ Zira L 0-150.0 1494 1667 14.33% 25.79% 59.88%-1.05 -5.9 49
2025-05-03 Sabah D 1-162.2 1502 1492 40.97% 29.31% 29.73%+0.21 -0.8 55
2025-05-03 @ Araz-Naxcivan D 1-162.2 1492 1502 29.73% 29.31% 40.97%-0.21 +0.8 41
2025-05-03 Sabail D 1-155.0 1396 1343 46.70% 28.79% 24.51%+0.43 -1.5 36
2025-05-03 @ Shamakhi D 1-155.0 1343 1396 24.51% 28.79% 46.70%-0.43 +1.5 22
2025-05-04 Kapaz D 2-262.5 1463 1331 55.85% 27.02% 17.14%+0.84 -2.1 37
2025-05-04 @ Neftchi Baku D 2-262.5 1331 1463 17.14% 27.02% 55.85%-0.84 +2.1 29
2025-05-04 Sumgayit W 2-041.0 1806 1375 79.70% 15.67% 4.62%+2.38 +3.1 80
2025-05-04 @ Qarabag L 0-241.0 1375 1806 4.62% 15.67% 79.70%-2.38 -3.1 30
2025-05-09 Shamakhi W 3-145.4 1493 1395 52.03% 27.91% 20.06%+0.66 +13.2 44
2025-05-09 @ Sabah L 1-345.4 1395 1493 20.06% 27.91% 52.03%-0.66 -13.2 36
2025-05-10 Neftchi Baku L 1-258.4 1488 1461 43.33% 29.14% 27.53%+0.30 -13.8 49
2025-05-10 @ Turan Tovuz W 2-158.4 1461 1488 27.53% 29.14% 43.33%-0.30 +13.8 40
2025-05-10 Zira L 0-142.7 1344 1673 9.50% 22.32% 68.18%-1.53 -3.8 22
2025-05-10 @ Sabail W 1-042.7 1673 1344 68.18% 22.32% 9.50%+1.53 +3.8 70
2025-05-11 Araz-Naxcivan W 2-045.8 1809 1501 71.40% 20.66% 7.95%+1.74 +5.9 83
2025-05-11 @ Qarabag L 0-245.8 1501 1809 7.95% 20.66% 71.40%-1.74 -5.9 55
2025-05-11 Sumgayit W 1-044.2 1333 1371 34.15% 29.46% 36.39%-0.04 +12.8 32
2025-05-11 @ Kapaz L 0-144.2 1371 1333 36.39% 29.46% 34.15%+0.04 -12.8 30
2025-05-17 Araz-Naxcivan L 0-144.2 1382 1495 24.73% 28.82% 46.46%-0.42 -9.6 36
2025-05-17 @ Shamakhi W 1-044.2 1495 1382 46.46% 28.82% 24.73%+0.42 +9.6 58
2025-05-17 Sabah D 1-169.4 1677 1506 59.71% 25.85% 14.44%+1.04 -3.4 71
2025-05-17 @ Zira D 1-169.4 1506 1677 14.44% 25.85% 59.71%-1.04 +3.4 45
2025-05-17 Turan Tovuz L 0-142.9 1359 1475 24.44% 28.78% 46.79%-0.44 -9.6 30
2025-05-17 @ Sumgayit W 1-042.9 1475 1359 46.79% 28.78% 24.44%+0.44 +9.5 52
2025-05-18 Kapaz W 3-038.1 1815 1346 81.88% 14.23% 3.89%+2.57 +3.7 86
2025-05-18 @ Qarabag L 0-338.1 1346 1815 3.89% 14.23% 81.88%-2.57 -3.7 32
2025-05-18 Sabail W 3-034.5 1475 1341 56.02% 26.97% 17.01%+0.85 +19.2 43
2025-05-18 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-334.5 1341 1475 17.01% 26.97% 56.02%-0.85 -19.2 22
2025-05-23 Sumgayit L 1-443.3 1321 1349 35.75% 29.46% 34.79%+0.02 -29.3 22
2025-05-23 @ Sabail W 4-143.3 1349 1321 34.79% 29.46% 35.75%-0.02 +29.3 33
2025-05-24 Neftchi Baku W 1-050.1 1509 1494 41.72% 29.26% 29.03%+0.24 +10.9 48
2025-05-24 @ Sabah L 0-150.1 1494 1509 29.03% 29.26% 41.72%-0.24 -10.9 43
2025-05-24 Qarabag L 0-145.6 1372 1818 5.69% 17.52% 76.79%-2.14 -2.1 36
2025-05-24 @ Shamakhi W 1-045.6 1818 1372 76.79% 17.52% 5.69%+2.14 +2.1 89
2025-05-25 Kapaz W 4-034.4 1484 1342 56.84% 26.74% 16.42%+0.89 +24.2 55
2025-05-25 @ Turan Tovuz L 0-434.4 1342 1484 16.42% 26.74% 56.84%-0.89 -24.2 32
2025-05-25 Zira L 0-152.4 1505 1674 19.25% 27.70% 53.05%-0.71 -7.8 58
2025-05-25 @ Araz-Naxcivan W 1-052.4 1674 1505 53.05% 27.70% 19.25%+0.71 +7.8 74

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2025-01-26 8.63% Turan Tovuz 1510 2 @ Qarabag 1799 1
2 2024-08-25 11.95% Shamakhi 1364 1 @ Zira 1578 0
3 2025-01-19 12.48% @ Kapaz 1284 5 Turan Tovuz 1550 2
4 2025-04-06 13.25% Kapaz 1322 1 @ Sabah 1512 0
5 2024-08-24 14.40% Turan Tovuz 1519 1 @ Qarabag 1691 0
6 2024-12-22 14.62% @ Shamakhi 1337 3 Sabah 1567 1
7 2025-02-10 14.92% Neftchi Baku 1446 2 @ Zira 1610 1
8 2025-01-31 15.52% @ Kapaz 1315 3 Sabah 1532 2
9 2024-09-21 17.15% Araz-Naxcivan 1415 2 @ Turan Tovuz 1547 1
10 2024-10-04 17.90% @ Kapaz 1286 4 Neftchi Baku 1471 3
11 2025-03-16 17.91% Sumgayit 1392 2 @ Turan Tovuz 1515 1
12 2025-02-02 17.95% @ Zira 1594 3 Qarabag 1779 2
13 2024-11-06 18.60% Araz-Naxcivan 1472 1 @ Zira 1587 0
14 2024-08-30 20.30% Araz-Naxcivan 1389 1 @ Sumgayit 1484 0
15 2025-01-18 21.55% Sabail 1353 2 @ Sumgayit 1435 0
16 2025-03-09 21.74% @ Shamakhi 1385 1 Sabah 1527 0
17 2025-03-05 21.95% @ Kapaz 1329 1 Neftchi Baku 1469 0
18 2024-11-03 22.74% @ Sumgayit 1431 1 Sabah 1563 0
19 2024-11-30 23.00% Kapaz 1292 1 @ Shamakhi 1360 0
20 2024-11-03 24.47% @ Kapaz 1287 1 Sabail 1403 0
21 2025-03-03 26.77% Shamakhi 1357 2 @ Sabail 1391 0
22 2024-08-18 27.04% Sabah 1510 2 @ Neftchi Baku 1542 0
23 2025-05-10 27.53% Neftchi Baku 1461 2 @ Turan Tovuz 1488 1
24 2024-11-23 27.62% @ Neftchi Baku 1459 2 Zira 1547 1
25 2025-04-12 28.11% Shamakhi 1371 2 @ Sumgayit 1393 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-01-19 39.93 @ Kapaz 5 1284 12.48% Turan Tovuz 2 1550 62.80% 24.71%
2 2024-08-23 34.94 @ Sabail 4 1412 45.99% Kapaz 0 1364 25.14% 28.87%
3 2024-12-22 31.14 @ Shamakhi 3 1337 14.62% Sabah 1 1567 59.43% 25.94%
4 2025-01-18 31.14 Sabail 2 1353 21.55% @ Sumgayit 0 1435 50.19% 28.26%
5 2025-03-10 29.66 @ Sumgayit 3 1362 42.00% Kapaz 0 1345 28.76% 29.24%
6 2025-05-23 29.30 Sumgayit 4 1349 34.79% @ Sabail 1 1321 35.75% 29.46%
7 2025-03-03 28.05 Shamakhi 2 1357 26.77% @ Sabail 0 1391 44.16% 29.06%
8 2024-08-18 27.90 Sabah 2 1510 27.04% @ Neftchi Baku 0 1542 43.87% 29.09%
9 2024-08-17 27.71 Turan Tovuz 3 1491 44.67% @ Kapaz 0 1392 26.31% 29.01%
10 2024-08-11 24.55 Zira 2 1553 33.49% @ Sabah 0 1535 37.06% 29.45%
11 2025-05-25 24.23 @ Turan Tovuz 4 1484 56.84% Kapaz 0 1342 16.42% 26.74%
12 2024-12-08 23.94 @ Sumgayit 2 1426 34.75% Neftchi Baku 0 1460 35.79% 29.46%
13 2024-10-05 22.29 @ Sabail 2 1411 38.22% Shamakhi 0 1422 32.36% 29.42%
14 2024-11-10 21.84 @ Qarabag 4 1736 59.29% Zira 0 1569 14.72% 25.99%
15 2025-04-07 21.00 Neftchi Baku 2 1463 40.84% @ Shamakhi 0 1392 29.85% 29.31%
16 2025-01-26 20.45 Turan Tovuz 2 1510 8.63% @ Qarabag 1 1799 69.95% 21.43%
17 2024-12-08 20.32 Zira 4 1553 60.85% @ Kapaz 0 1308 13.70% 25.45%
18 2025-03-04 20.21 Zira 2 1618 42.43% @ Turan Tovuz 0 1536 28.36% 29.21%
19 2024-08-25 20.20 Shamakhi 1 1364 11.95% @ Zira 0 1578 63.70% 24.35%
20 2024-09-20 20.03 Shamakhi 2 1400 42.81% @ Kapaz 0 1315 28.01% 29.18%
21 2025-04-06 19.65 Kapaz 1 1322 13.25% @ Sabah 0 1512 61.56% 25.19%
22 2024-09-15 19.46 @ Zira 2 1542 43.93% Neftchi Baku 0 1510 26.98% 29.09%
23 2024-11-30 19.42 @ Zira 4 1534 50.93% Sumgayit 1 1445 20.94% 28.13%
24 2025-05-18 19.17 @ Neftchi Baku 3 1475 56.02% Sabail 0 1341 17.01% 26.97%
25 2024-08-24 19.16 Turan Tovuz 1 1519 14.40% @ Qarabag 0 1691 59.77% 25.83%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-02-02 76.9 @ Zira 3 1594 17.95% Qarabag 2 1779 54.75% 27.30%
2 2025-01-26 74.1 Turan Tovuz 2 1510 8.63% @ Qarabag 1 1799 69.95% 21.43%
3 2025-02-22 72.5 @ Qarabag 1 1777 67.09% Sabah 1 1524 10.06% 22.85%
4 2025-04-27 72.5 @ Sabah 1 1488 9.75% Qarabag 1 1810 67.69% 22.56%
5 2024-09-15 72.1 @ Sabah 2 1560 41.51% Turan Tovuz 2 1547 29.22% 29.27%
6 2024-12-07 71.8 @ Sabah 1 1550 14.73% Qarabag 1 1779 59.28% 25.99%
7 2025-03-04 69.4 @ Sabah 2 1528 43.39% Araz-Naxcivan 2 1500 27.48% 29.13%
8 2025-05-17 69.4 @ Zira 1 1677 59.71% Sabah 1 1506 14.44% 25.85%
9 2025-03-29 69.0 @ Sumgayit 3 1409 25.79% Sabah 3 1513 45.26% 28.95%
10 2025-03-15 67.8 @ Sabah 1 1511 22.83% Zira 1 1642 48.66% 28.51%
11 2024-10-20 67.2 @ Zira 1 1576 41.24% Sabah 1 1564 29.47% 29.29%
12 2024-09-29 66.6 @ Shamakhi 2 1421 25.14% Turan Tovuz 2 1530 45.99% 28.87%
13 2024-11-24 66.2 @ Turan Tovuz 1 1561 42.05% Sabah 1 1543 28.72% 29.24%
14 2024-08-04 66.1 @ Sabah 2 1537 59.07% Shamakhi 2 1373 14.87% 26.06%
15 2025-02-10 66.1 Neftchi Baku 2 1446 14.92% @ Zira 1 1610 59.00% 26.08%
16 2024-11-01 65.9 @ Turan Tovuz 0 1561 18.46% Qarabag 0 1739 54.08% 27.46%
17 2024-11-09 65.0 @ Sabah 2 1546 66.32% Kapaz 2 1302 10.47% 23.21%
18 2024-08-24 64.8 Turan Tovuz 1 1519 14.40% @ Qarabag 0 1691 59.77% 25.83%
19 2025-03-15 64.7 @ Kapaz 0 1315 5.12% Qarabag 0 1786 78.32% 16.56%
20 2024-09-29 64.4 @ Qarabag 3 1710 56.27% Sabah 2 1573 16.83% 26.90%
21 2024-10-26 63.8 @ Araz-Naxcivan 1 1456 24.15% Zira 1 1575 47.12% 28.73%
22 2025-01-31 63.6 @ Kapaz 3 1315 15.52% Sabah 2 1532 58.11% 26.36%
23 2024-10-05 63.4 @ Sabah 1 1567 55.06% Araz-Naxcivan 1 1442 17.72% 27.22%
24 2024-10-04 63.0 @ Kapaz 4 1286 17.90% Neftchi Baku 3 1471 54.82% 27.28%
25 2024-11-08 63.0 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1461 51.57% Shamakhi 2 1367 20.42% 28.01%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-09-28 32.0 @ Zira 3 1580 69.62% Kapaz 0 1295 8.78% 21.60%
2 2024-12-08 34.2 Zira 4 1553 60.85% @ Kapaz 0 1308 13.70% 25.45%
3 2025-05-25 34.4 @ Turan Tovuz 4 1484 56.84% Kapaz 0 1342 16.42% 26.74%
4 2025-05-18 34.5 @ Neftchi Baku 3 1475 56.02% Sabail 0 1341 17.01% 26.97%
5 2024-11-22 36.1 Araz-Naxcivan 2 1500 55.79% @ Kapaz 0 1306 17.18% 27.03%
6 2024-10-18 36.2 Qarabag 5 1721 75.01% @ Kapaz 0 1301 6.39% 18.60%
7 2025-02-24 36.4 @ Zira 2 1611 68.91% Kapaz 0 1336 9.13% 21.96%
8 2024-08-23 36.5 @ Sabail 4 1412 45.99% Kapaz 0 1364 25.14% 28.87%
9 2025-03-10 36.7 @ Sumgayit 3 1362 42.00% Kapaz 0 1345 28.76% 29.24%
10 2025-05-18 38.1 @ Qarabag 3 1815 81.88% Kapaz 0 1346 3.89% 14.23%
11 2024-09-20 38.3 Shamakhi 2 1400 42.81% @ Kapaz 0 1315 28.01% 29.18%
12 2024-10-27 39.2 @ Qarabag 3 1732 74.07% Shamakhi 0 1387 6.78% 19.15%
13 2025-03-30 39.2 @ Zira 3 1640 65.66% Shamakhi 0 1404 10.83% 23.51%
14 2024-08-09 39.5 @ Qarabag 3 1681 69.17% Kapaz 0 1402 9.01% 21.83%
15 2024-08-17 39.8 Turan Tovuz 3 1491 44.67% @ Kapaz 0 1392 26.31% 29.01%
16 2024-09-13 39.8 @ Araz-Naxcivan 1 1406 50.20% Kapaz 0 1324 21.54% 28.26%
17 2025-02-15 39.9 Zira 3 1592 56.13% @ Sumgayit 0 1395 16.93% 26.94%
18 2024-12-07 40.2 Araz-Naxcivan 2 1526 51.07% @ Sabail 0 1375 20.83% 28.10%
19 2025-01-25 40.3 @ Sabail 1 1384 47.47% Kapaz 0 1324 23.85% 28.69%
20 2025-02-11 40.5 @ Qarabag 5 1763 75.60% Sabail 0 1396 6.15% 18.24%
21 2025-04-07 40.5 @ Araz-Naxcivan 2 1491 50.12% Sumgayit 0 1410 21.61% 28.27%
22 2024-11-02 40.6 Zira 2 1574 55.71% @ Shamakhi 0 1380 17.24% 27.05%
23 2024-11-23 40.9 Qarabag 3 1758 71.28% @ Sabail 0 1390 8.00% 20.72%
24 2025-05-04 41.0 @ Qarabag 2 1806 79.70% Sumgayit 0 1375 4.62% 15.67%
25 2024-08-03 41.1 @ Sumgayit 2 1488 48.60% Kapaz 0 1419 22.88% 28.52%