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2016-17 First Division B Season

124 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Promoted

Antwerp

via playoff

Relegated

Lommel

via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Lierse

9.29 points above expected

55 points · 45.71 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lommel United

16.32 points below expected

18 points · 34.32 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lierse 28 15 10 3 55 51 25 +26 45.71 +9.29
2 Roeselare 28 14 8 6 50 42 32 +10 40.80 +9.20
3 Antwerp Promoted 28 13 10 5 49 40 26 +14 42.62 +6.38
4 Union SG 28 9 8 11 35 33 34 -1 34.93 +0.07
5 Tubize 28 10 4 14 34 42 53 -11 34.07 -0.07
6 Cercle Brugge 28 9 6 13 33 32 40 -8 35.79 -2.79
7 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 28 7 9 12 30 33 42 -9 38.44 -8.44
8 Lommel United 28 3 9 16 18 31 52 -21 34.32 -16.32
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lommel United 6 3 1 2 10 9 4 +5 — —
2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 6 2 2 2 8 4 4 0 — —
3 Tubize 6 1 4 1 7 6 6 0 — —
4 Cercle Brugge 6 1 3 2 6 4 9 -5 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lierse 55 45.71 +9.29
2 Roeselare 50 40.80 +9.20
3 Antwerp 49 42.62 +6.38
4 Union SG 35 34.93 +0.07
5 Tubize 34 34.07 -0.07

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lommel United 18 34.32 -16.32
2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 30 38.44 -8.44
3 Cercle Brugge 33 35.79 -2.79
4 Tubize 34 34.07 -0.07
5 Union SG 35 34.93 +0.07

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Roeselare 5 Sep 11 – Oct 5 1 in 569
2 Antwerp 5 Dec 16 – Jan 29 1 in 69
3 Lierse 3 Sep 9 – Sep 25 1 in 30
4 Lommel United 2 Aug 14 – Aug 19 1 in 13
5 Union SG 2 Oct 29 – Nov 6 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 5 Jan 8 – Feb 5 1 in 90
2 Lommel United 3 Sep 11 – Sep 25 1 in 65
3 Cercle Brugge 3 Sep 18 – Oct 1 1 in 21
4 Union SG 3 Sep 24 – Oct 4 1 in 20
5 Tubize 3 Oct 16 – Oct 30 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Roeselare 16 Sep 11 – Dec 17 1 in 1,759
2 Antwerp 11 Nov 13 – Feb 4 1 in 60
3 Union SG 7 Jan 8 – Feb 19 1 in 44
4 Lierse 11 Dec 2 – Feb 26 1 in 22
5 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 5 Sep 18 – Oct 9 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lommel United 15 Nov 6 – Feb 26 1 in 321
2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 7 Dec 10 – Feb 5 1 in 16
3 Union SG 6 Nov 11 – Dec 17 1 in 13
4 Antwerp 5 Aug 19 – Sep 25 1 in 10
5 Cercle Brugge 5 Sep 18 – Oct 9 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Lierse 1717 55 +31 11 8.5 +2.5
Roeselare 1630 50 -16 5 7.2 -2.2
Antwerp 1678 49 +5 10 7.8 +2.2
Tubize 1548 41 +0 6 7.2 -1.2
Cercle Brugge 1522 39 +6 6 5.8 +0.2
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1565 38 -1 7 7.0 +0.0
Union SG 1584 35 +8 8 6.5 +1.5
Lommel United 1552 28 -5 7 7.4 -0.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ANT CB LIE LU OL ROE TUB US
Antwerp —
2-2-0
6.33
0-1-3
5.32
2-1-1
6.47
2-2-0
5.87
3-0-1
5.79
2-2-0
6.55
2-2-0
6.35
Cercle Brugge
0-2-2
4.62
 —
0-2-2
4.42
3-1-0
5.27
1-0-3
5.14
0-1-3
4.88
3-0-1
5.43
2-0-2
5.48
Lierse
3-1-0
5.62
2-2-0
6.55
 —
2-1-1
7.04
2-2-0
6.25
0-2-2
6.42
4-0-0
6.62
2-2-0
6.57
Lommel United
1-1-2
4.50
0-1-3
5.66
1-1-2
3.97
 —
0-3-1
5.05
0-1-3
5.18
1-0-3
5.55
0-2-2
5.57
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
0-2-2
5.08
3-0-1
5.81
0-2-2
4.69
1-3-0
5.88
 —
0-2-2
5.50
2-0-2
6.11
1-0-3
6.22
Roeselare
1-0-3
5.15
3-1-0
6.06
2-2-0
4.55
3-1-0
5.80
2-2-0
5.45
 —
1-1-2
6.06
2-1-1
6.00
Tubize
0-2-2
4.41
1-0-3
5.50
0-0-4
4.33
3-0-1
5.39
2-0-2
4.83
2-1-1
4.88
 —
2-1-1
5.47
Union SG
0-2-2
4.59
2-0-2
5.44
0-2-2
4.39
2-2-0
5.35
3-0-1
4.71
1-1-2
4.94
1-1-2
5.48
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.69 +14.7
Allowed 0.73 -9.9
Differential 0.93 +7.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.45%8.87%6.05%2.42%1.21%0.40%25.40%
18.87%13.71%8.87%2.82%1.21%0.81%36.29%
26.05%8.87%9.68%0.81%1.21%—26.61%
32.42%2.82%0.81%——0.40%6.45%
41.21%1.21%1.21%———3.63%
5+0.40%0.81%—0.40%——1.61%
Total25.40%36.29%26.61%6.45%3.63%1.61%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.32 +0.00
SD 1.14 1.14 1.66
CV 0.87 0.87 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 124

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
114.29%21.43%7.14%———42.86%
210.71%10.71%7.14%———28.57%
3———————
43.57%—7.14%———10.71%
5+———————
Total35.71%35.71%28.57%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 0.93 +0.50
SD 1.14 0.81 1.32
CV 0.80 0.88 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%14.71%5.88%2.94%—2.94%35.29%
111.76%11.76%5.88%2.94%2.94%—35.29%
2—8.82%5.88%2.94%2.94%—20.59%
3—5.88%————5.88%
4—2.94%————2.94%
5+———————
Total20.59%44.12%17.65%8.82%5.88%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.44 -0.38
SD 1.04 1.26 1.61
CV 0.98 0.87 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
110.71%14.29%3.57%———28.57%
210.71%7.14%14.29%———32.14%
310.71%3.57%3.57%———17.86%
4———————
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total39.29%32.14%28.57%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 0.89 +0.93
SD 1.31 0.83 1.56
CV 0.72 0.93 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%14.71%5.88%2.94%——29.41%
12.94%14.71%14.71%5.88%—2.94%41.18%
22.94%5.88%8.82%—2.94%—20.59%
3—————2.94%2.94%
42.94%—————2.94%
5+2.94%—————2.94%
Total17.65%35.29%29.41%8.82%2.94%5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.65 -0.47
SD 1.17 1.39 1.78
CV 0.99 0.84 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%11.76%5.88%2.94%2.94%—29.41%
111.76%11.76%11.76%2.94%——38.24%
28.82%2.94%14.71%2.94%——29.41%
3———————
4——2.94%———2.94%
5+———————
Total26.47%26.47%35.29%8.82%2.94%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.35 -0.26
SD 0.93 1.07 1.40
CV 0.86 0.79 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%————14.29%
13.57%14.29%3.57%3.57%3.57%—28.57%
27.14%32.14%10.71%———50.00%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total17.86%60.71%14.29%3.57%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.14 +0.36
SD 0.84 0.89 1.28
CV 0.56 0.78 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.94%5.88%8.82%5.88%2.94%—26.47%
18.82%11.76%5.88%5.88%2.94%2.94%38.24%
22.94%2.94%8.82%—2.94%—17.65%
32.94%5.88%————8.82%
4—5.88%————5.88%
5+———2.94%——2.94%
Total17.65%32.35%23.53%14.71%8.82%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.74 -0.32
SD 1.40 1.33 2.03
CV 0.99 0.77 —
Max 6 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
17.14%10.71%17.86%———35.71%
27.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
33.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total32.14%25.00%35.71%3.57%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.21 -0.04
SD 1.12 1.07 1.73
CV 0.95 0.88 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Antwerp 1695 49 42.62 +6.38 85.0% 22 32 38 43 47 53 64
Lierse 1694 55 45.71 +9.29 95.0% 28 34 41 46 50 55 60
Roeselare 1616 50 40.80 +9.20 93.0% 23 29 36 40 45 52 59
Union SG 1595 35 34.93 +0.07 55.0% 21 24 31 35 39 44 50
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1565 30 38.44 -8.44 8.0% 27 29 34 38 42 49 55
Lommel United 1552 18 34.32 -16.32 0.0% 22 25 30 34 38 45 52
Tubize 1548 34 34.07 -0.07 50.0% 16 21 29 34 38 46 51
Cercle Brugge 1522 33 35.79 -2.79 38.0% 17 27 32 35 39 46 48

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.48%
No Edge
40.32%29.84%29.84%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 36.56 Elo pts.
274 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.19 goals
Neutral
-2+0.13+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.0
Open
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
38%
Lierse, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Comfortable
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.05 * Some Luck: 5.05 to 7.58 * Lucky: 7.58 to 10.11 * Wild Swing: 10.11 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.35 * Close: 1.35 to 2.02 * Off: 2.02 to 2.69 * Way Off: 2.69 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1 * A Surprise: 1 to 1.6 * Several Surprises: 1.6 to 2.2 * Many Surprises: 2.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.34 points
Lucky
06.3216
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Close
01.684
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
95.00%
Lierse
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.00%
Lommel United
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 1.0
1 of 1
A Surprise
01

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 70.37
1.83
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
61%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
77%
Even
50%78%100%
Close Games
Expected
67%
Very Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.82
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.62
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.47
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.93
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.087
Well Within Noise
00.1340.3

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Antwerp 5
Roeselare 2

Leg 1: Roeselare 1-2 Antwerp

Leg 2: Antwerp 3-1 Roeselare

Sim: 6.0%

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Lierse38.00%24.00%16.00%10.00%4.00%7.00%1.00%—
Roeselare16.00%17.00%19.00%16.00%12.00%7.00%4.00%9.00%
Antwerp27.00%18.00%24.00%10.00%9.00%4.00%7.00%1.00%
Union SG2.00%7.00%9.00%10.00%14.00%19.00%21.00%18.00%
Tubize3.00%7.00%11.00%8.00%15.00%10.00%18.00%28.00%
Cercle Brugge6.00%8.00%4.00%19.00%14.00%15.00%15.00%19.00%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven5.00%15.00%11.00%18.00%15.00%22.00%9.00%5.00%
Lommel United3.00%4.00%6.00%9.00%17.00%16.00%25.00%20.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Lost promotion playoff Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Antwerp — 100% — —
Cercle Brugge 44.00% 14.00% 23.00% 19.00%
Lierse 12.00% 62.00% 26.00% —
Lommel United 58.00% 7.00% 15.00% 20.00%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 46.00% 20.00% 29.00% 5.00%
Roeselare — 100% — —
Tubize 43.00% 10.00% 19.00% 28.00%
Union SG 54.00% 9.00% 19.00% 18.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
AntwerpCercle BruggeLierseLommel UnitedOud-Heverlee LeuvenRoeselareTubizeUnion SG
Antwerp100.0%2.00%68.8%16.00%100.0%4.00%83.3%6.00%85.7%7.00%75.0%4.00%50.0%2.00%
Cercle Brugge0.0%2.00%33.3%6.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%
Lierse31.2%16.00%66.7%6.00%80.0%5.00%46.2%13.00%84.6%13.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%3.00%
Lommel United0.0%4.00%20.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven16.7%6.00%100.0%1.00%53.8%13.00%100.0%1.00%75.0%4.00%50.0%2.00%
Roeselare14.3%7.00%100.0%1.00%15.4%13.00%100.0%1.00%25.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%
Tubize25.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%50.0%2.00%
Union SG50.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%3.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Antwerp 57.12%
Roeselare 42.88%
Loser →
↓ Winner
AntwerpRoeselare
Antwerp57.1%100.00%
Roeselare42.9%100.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for relegation playoff
Cercle Brugge 100% —
Lommel United — 100%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 100% —
Tubize 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2016-08-05 Lierse D 2-273.4 1551 1596 41.71% 27.46% 30.84%-0.03 -0.3 1
2016-08-05 @ Roeselare D 2-273.4 1596 1551 30.84% 27.46% 41.71%+0.03 +0.3 1
2016-08-06 Union SG D 2-274.3 1602 1556 53.46% 25.62% 20.92%+0.30 -1.1 1
2016-08-06 @ Tubize D 2-274.3 1556 1602 20.92% 25.62% 53.46%-0.30 +1.1 1
2016-08-07 Antwerp D 1-169.3 1608 1623 45.73% 27.06% 27.21%+0.08 -0.8 1
2016-08-07 @ Cercle Brugge D 1-169.3 1623 1608 27.21% 27.06% 45.73%-0.08 +0.8 1
2016-08-07 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-276.0 1614 1646 43.40% 27.32% 29.28%+0.01 -0.5 1
2016-08-07 @ Lommel United D 2-276.0 1646 1614 29.28% 27.32% 43.40%-0.01 +0.4 1
2016-08-12 Union SG L 0-357.2 1647 1557 58.42% 24.19% 17.40%+0.46 -32.0 1
2016-08-12 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-057.2 1557 1647 17.40% 24.19% 58.42%-0.46 +32.0 4
2016-08-13 Roeselare W 1-050.4 1624 1551 56.59% 24.76% 18.64%+0.40 +4.6 4
2016-08-13 @ Antwerp L 0-150.4 1551 1624 18.64% 24.76% 56.59%-0.40 -4.6 1
2016-08-14 Cercle Brugge W 2-050.3 1596 1607 46.39% 26.97% 26.64%+0.10 +11.9 4
2016-08-14 @ Lierse L 0-250.3 1607 1596 26.64% 26.97% 46.39%-0.10 -11.9 1
2016-08-14 Lommel United L 0-454.8 1601 1613 46.18% 27.00% 26.82%+0.09 -34.5 1
2016-08-14 @ Tubize W 4-054.8 1613 1601 26.82% 27.00% 46.18%-0.09 +34.5 4
2016-08-19 Lommel United L 0-161.1 1628 1648 45.21% 27.13% 27.67%+0.06 -9.5 4
2016-08-19 @ Antwerp W 1-061.1 1648 1628 27.67% 27.13% 45.21%-0.06 +9.5 7
2016-08-20 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-273.7 1546 1615 38.41% 27.62% 33.98%-0.12 -0.1 2
2016-08-20 @ Roeselare D 2-273.7 1615 1546 33.98% 27.62% 38.41%+0.12 +0.1 2
2016-08-21 Lierse D 2-274.8 1589 1608 45.24% 27.12% 27.64%+0.06 -0.6 5
2016-08-21 @ Union SG D 2-274.8 1608 1589 27.64% 27.12% 45.24%-0.06 +0.6 5
2016-08-21 Tubize W 4-151.4 1595 1567 51.28% 26.12% 22.59%+0.24 +12.7 4
2016-08-21 @ Cercle Brugge L 1-451.4 1567 1595 22.59% 26.12% 51.28%-0.24 -12.7 1
2016-09-02 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-275.4 1609 1615 46.97% 26.89% 26.13%+0.11 -0.7 6
2016-09-02 @ Lierse D 2-275.4 1615 1609 26.13% 26.89% 46.97%-0.11 +0.7 3
2016-09-03 Cercle Brugge D 1-170.4 1657 1607 53.87% 25.52% 20.61%+0.31 -1.5 8
2016-09-03 @ Lommel United D 1-170.4 1607 1657 20.61% 25.52% 53.87%-0.31 +1.5 5
2016-09-04 Antwerp D 1-168.8 1589 1619 43.75% 27.28% 28.96%+0.02 -0.6 6
2016-09-04 @ Union SG D 1-168.8 1619 1589 28.96% 27.28% 43.75%-0.02 +0.6 5
2016-09-04 Roeselare W 4-150.3 1554 1546 48.77% 26.61% 24.62%+0.16 +13.7 4
2016-09-04 @ Tubize L 1-450.3 1546 1554 24.62% 26.61% 48.77%-0.16 -13.7 2
2016-09-09 Lierse L 1-267.3 1619 1608 49.18% 26.53% 24.28%+0.17 -9.6 5
2016-09-09 @ Antwerp W 2-167.3 1608 1619 24.28% 26.53% 49.18%-0.17 +9.6 9
2016-09-10 Union SG W 2-158.8 1609 1588 50.39% 26.31% 23.30%+0.21 +5.3 8
2016-09-10 @ Cercle Brugge L 1-258.8 1588 1609 23.30% 26.31% 50.39%-0.21 -5.3 6
2016-09-11 Roeselare L 1-269.2 1656 1532 62.04% 22.88% 15.08%+0.58 -11.6 8
2016-09-11 @ Lommel United W 2-169.2 1532 1656 15.08% 22.88% 62.04%-0.58 +11.6 5
2016-09-11 Tubize L 0-161.4 1615 1568 53.66% 25.57% 20.77%+0.31 -10.9 3
2016-09-11 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-061.4 1568 1615 20.77% 25.57% 53.66%-0.31 +10.9 7
2016-09-16 Lommel United W 3-159.1 1583 1644 39.45% 27.58% 32.97%-0.09 +12.2 9
2016-09-16 @ Union SG L 1-359.1 1644 1583 32.97% 27.58% 39.45%+0.09 -12.2 8
2016-09-17 Tubize W 5-150.6 1618 1579 52.63% 25.82% 21.54%+0.28 +15.7 12
2016-09-17 @ Lierse L 1-550.6 1579 1618 21.54% 25.82% 52.63%-0.28 -15.7 7
2016-09-18 Antwerp D 1-169.1 1604 1610 47.04% 26.88% 26.08%+0.11 -0.9 4
2016-09-18 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-169.1 1610 1604 26.08% 26.88% 47.04%-0.11 +0.9 6
2016-09-18 Cercle Brugge W 2-161.5 1544 1614 38.13% 27.62% 34.25%-0.12 +7.2 8
2016-09-18 @ Roeselare L 1-261.5 1614 1544 34.25% 27.62% 38.13%+0.12 -7.2 8
2016-09-24 Union SG W 2-160.0 1551 1595 41.86% 27.44% 30.69%-0.03 +6.7 11
2016-09-24 @ Roeselare L 1-260.0 1595 1551 30.69% 27.44% 41.86%+0.03 -6.7 9
2016-09-25 Antwerp D 2-274.1 1563 1611 41.30% 27.48% 31.22%-0.04 -0.3 8
2016-09-25 @ Tubize D 2-274.1 1611 1563 31.22% 27.48% 41.30%+0.04 +0.3 7
2016-09-25 Lierse L 0-355.9 1632 1633 47.51% 26.81% 25.67%+0.13 -27.0 8
2016-09-25 @ Lommel United W 3-055.9 1633 1632 25.67% 26.81% 47.51%-0.13 +27.0 15
2016-09-25 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 2-467.0 1607 1604 48.19% 26.71% 25.11%+0.15 -14.6 8
2016-09-25 @ Cercle Brugge W 4-267.0 1604 1607 25.11% 26.71% 48.19%-0.15 +14.6 7
2016-09-30 Tubize L 0-159.9 1588 1562 51.00% 26.18% 22.82%+0.23 -10.5 9
2016-09-30 @ Union SG W 1-059.9 1562 1588 22.82% 26.18% 51.00%-0.23 +10.5 11
2016-10-01 Cercle Brugge W 2-159.0 1611 1592 50.11% 26.36% 23.53%+0.20 +5.4 10
2016-10-01 @ Antwerp L 1-259.0 1592 1611 23.53% 26.36% 50.11%-0.20 -5.4 8
2016-10-02 Lommel United D 2-275.5 1618 1605 49.45% 26.49% 24.06%+0.18 -0.9 8
2016-10-02 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-275.5 1605 1618 24.06% 26.49% 49.45%-0.18 +0.8 9
2016-10-02 Roeselare L 0-259.6 1660 1558 59.87% 23.69% 16.44%+0.51 -22.5 15
2016-10-02 @ Lierse W 2-059.6 1558 1660 16.44% 23.69% 59.87%-0.51 +22.5 14
2016-10-04 Union SG W 4-046.6 1616 1578 52.57% 25.84% 21.59%+0.27 +18.9 13
2016-10-04 @ Antwerp L 0-446.6 1578 1616 21.59% 25.84% 52.57%-0.27 -18.9 9
2016-10-05 Lommel United W 2-050.5 1580 1606 44.39% 27.22% 28.39%+0.04 +12.6 17
2016-10-05 @ Roeselare L 0-250.5 1606 1580 28.39% 27.22% 44.39%-0.04 -12.6 9
2016-10-05 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-158.6 1573 1617 41.80% 27.45% 30.75%-0.03 -8.9 11
2016-10-05 @ Tubize W 1-058.6 1617 1573 30.75% 27.45% 41.80%+0.03 +8.9 11
2016-10-06 Lierse D 0-064.3 1587 1638 40.90% 27.51% 31.59%-0.05 -0.4 9
2016-10-06 @ Cercle Brugge D 0-064.3 1638 1587 31.59% 27.51% 40.90%+0.05 +0.4 16
2016-10-08 Tubize L 3-663.3 1593 1564 51.39% 26.10% 22.51%+0.24 -19.5 9
2016-10-08 @ Lommel United W 6-363.3 1564 1593 22.51% 26.10% 51.39%-0.24 +19.5 14
2016-10-09 Antwerp W 2-051.1 1638 1635 48.12% 26.72% 25.16%+0.14 +11.4 19
2016-10-09 @ Lierse L 0-251.1 1635 1638 25.16% 26.72% 48.12%-0.14 -11.4 13
2016-10-09 Cercle Brugge W 3-264.7 1559 1587 44.07% 27.25% 28.68%+0.03 +6.0 12
2016-10-09 @ Union SG L 2-364.7 1587 1559 28.68% 27.25% 44.07%-0.03 -6.0 9
2016-10-09 Roeselare D 1-169.4 1626 1593 51.94% 25.98% 22.08%+0.26 -1.3 12
2016-10-09 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-169.4 1593 1626 22.08% 25.98% 51.94%-0.26 +1.3 18
2016-10-14 Lommel United W 3-154.6 1581 1574 48.66% 26.63% 24.72%+0.16 +9.7 12
2016-10-14 @ Cercle Brugge L 1-354.6 1574 1581 24.72% 26.63% 48.66%-0.16 -9.7 9
2016-10-15 Union SG W 2-156.9 1650 1565 57.92% 24.35% 17.73%+0.44 +4.1 22
2016-10-15 @ Lierse L 1-256.9 1565 1650 17.73% 24.35% 57.92%-0.44 -4.1 12
2016-10-16 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-160.7 1624 1625 47.63% 26.79% 25.58%+0.13 +5.8 16
2016-10-16 @ Antwerp L 1-260.7 1625 1624 25.58% 26.79% 47.63%-0.13 -5.8 12
2016-10-16 Tubize W 1-052.8 1594 1583 49.10% 26.55% 24.35%+0.17 +5.9 21
2016-10-16 @ Roeselare L 0-152.8 1583 1594 24.35% 26.55% 49.10%-0.17 -5.9 14
2016-10-21 Lierse L 1-360.5 1578 1654 37.30% 27.64% 35.06%-0.15 -13.4 14
2016-10-21 @ Tubize W 3-160.5 1654 1578 35.06% 27.64% 37.30%+0.15 +13.4 25
2016-10-22 Cercle Brugge W 2-049.0 1619 1590 51.36% 26.11% 22.53%+0.24 +10.4 15
2016-10-22 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-249.0 1590 1619 22.53% 26.11% 51.36%-0.24 -10.3 12
2016-10-23 Antwerp D 1-168.4 1564 1630 38.77% 27.61% 33.62%-0.11 -0.2 10
2016-10-23 @ Lommel United D 1-168.4 1630 1564 33.62% 27.61% 38.77%+0.11 +0.2 17
2016-10-24 Roeselare L 1-264.0 1561 1600 42.51% 27.39% 30.10%-0.01 -8.5 12
2016-10-24 @ Union SG W 2-164.0 1600 1561 30.10% 27.39% 42.51%+0.01 +8.5 24
2016-10-28 Roeselare L 0-353.4 1580 1608 43.97% 27.26% 28.77%+0.03 -25.4 12
2016-10-28 @ Cercle Brugge W 3-053.4 1608 1580 28.77% 27.26% 43.97%-0.03 +25.4 27
2016-10-29 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-052.6 1552 1629 37.17% 27.64% 35.18%-0.15 +14.8 15
2016-10-29 @ Union SG L 0-252.6 1629 1552 35.18% 27.64% 37.17%+0.15 -14.8 15
2016-10-30 Lommel United L 0-259.9 1667 1564 59.97% 23.65% 16.38%+0.51 -22.5 25
2016-10-30 @ Lierse W 2-059.9 1564 1667 16.38% 23.65% 59.97%-0.51 +22.5 13
2016-10-30 Tubize W 2-047.3 1630 1564 55.76% 25.01% 19.23%+0.37 +9.0 20
2016-10-30 @ Antwerp L 0-247.3 1564 1630 19.23% 25.01% 55.76%-0.37 -9.0 14
2016-11-06 Antwerp W 2-161.2 1634 1639 47.08% 26.88% 26.04%+0.12 +5.9 30
2016-11-06 @ Roeselare L 1-261.2 1639 1634 26.04% 26.88% 47.08%-0.12 -5.9 20
2016-11-06 Cercle Brugge W 4-150.9 1555 1555 47.82% 26.76% 25.41%+0.14 +14.0 17
2016-11-06 @ Tubize L 1-450.9 1555 1555 25.41% 26.76% 47.82%-0.14 -14.1 12
2016-11-06 Lierse L 0-160.5 1615 1645 43.75% 27.28% 28.96%+0.02 -9.2 15
2016-11-06 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-060.5 1645 1615 28.96% 27.28% 43.75%-0.02 +9.2 28
2016-11-06 Union SG L 1-265.8 1586 1567 50.16% 26.35% 23.49%+0.20 -9.7 13
2016-11-06 @ Lommel United W 2-165.8 1567 1586 23.49% 26.35% 50.16%-0.20 +9.7 18
2016-11-11 Union SG W 1-051.5 1654 1577 57.06% 24.62% 18.32%+0.42 +4.5 31
2016-11-11 @ Lierse L 0-151.5 1577 1654 18.32% 24.62% 57.06%-0.42 -4.5 18
2016-11-12 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-274.4 1576 1605 43.90% 27.27% 28.84%+0.03 -0.5 14
2016-11-12 @ Lommel United D 2-274.4 1605 1576 28.84% 27.27% 43.90%-0.03 +0.5 16
2016-11-12 Tubize D 1-169.6 1640 1569 56.29% 24.85% 18.86%+0.39 -1.7 31
2016-11-12 @ Roeselare D 1-169.6 1569 1640 18.86% 24.85% 56.29%-0.39 +1.7 18
2016-11-13 Cercle Brugge D 0-064.2 1633 1541 58.76% 24.07% 17.17%+0.47 -2.2 21
2016-11-13 @ Antwerp D 0-064.2 1541 1633 17.17% 24.07% 58.76%-0.47 +2.2 13
2016-11-18 Antwerp D 0-064.6 1606 1631 44.44% 27.21% 28.35%+0.04 -0.8 17
2016-11-18 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 0-064.6 1631 1606 28.35% 27.21% 44.44%-0.04 +0.8 22
2016-11-19 Roeselare D 0-064.0 1572 1638 38.80% 27.60% 33.60%-0.11 -0.2 19
2016-11-19 @ Union SG D 0-064.0 1638 1572 33.60% 27.60% 38.80%+0.11 +0.2 32
2016-11-20 Lierse L 0-352.0 1571 1659 35.71% 27.65% 36.65%-0.19 -21.7 18
2016-11-20 @ Tubize W 3-052.0 1659 1571 36.65% 27.65% 35.71%+0.19 +21.7 34
2016-11-20 Lommel United W 1-052.8 1543 1576 43.33% 27.32% 29.34%+0.01 +6.8 16
2016-11-20 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-152.8 1576 1543 29.34% 27.32% 43.33%-0.01 -6.8 14
2016-11-25 Lierse W 2-163.3 1638 1680 42.13% 27.42% 30.44%-0.02 +6.6 35
2016-11-25 @ Roeselare L 1-263.3 1680 1638 30.44% 27.42% 42.13%+0.02 -6.6 34
2016-11-26 Tubize L 1-264.8 1569 1549 50.24% 26.34% 23.42%+0.21 -9.7 14
2016-11-26 @ Lommel United W 2-164.8 1549 1569 23.42% 26.34% 50.24%-0.21 +9.7 21
2016-11-26 Union SG W 2-047.7 1632 1572 55.06% 25.20% 19.73%+0.35 +9.2 25
2016-11-26 @ Antwerp L 0-247.7 1572 1632 19.73% 25.20% 55.06%-0.35 -9.2 19
2016-11-27 Cercle Brugge W 1-050.5 1605 1550 54.58% 25.34% 20.09%+0.34 +4.9 20
2016-11-27 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-150.5 1550 1605 20.09% 25.34% 54.58%-0.34 -4.9 16
2016-12-02 Antwerp D 2-277.1 1674 1641 51.85% 26.00% 22.15%+0.25 -1.0 35
2016-12-02 @ Lierse D 2-277.1 1641 1674 22.15% 26.00% 51.85%-0.25 +1.0 26
2016-12-03 Cercle Brugge L 1-264.4 1563 1545 50.05% 26.37% 23.58%+0.20 -9.7 19
2016-12-03 @ Union SG W 2-164.4 1545 1563 23.58% 26.37% 50.05%-0.20 +9.7 19
2016-12-03 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-253.9 1559 1610 40.88% 27.51% 31.61%-0.05 -16.5 21
2016-12-03 @ Tubize W 2-053.9 1610 1559 31.61% 27.51% 40.88%+0.05 +16.5 23
2016-12-04 Lommel United W 2-156.7 1645 1559 57.99% 24.33% 17.68%+0.45 +4.1 38
2016-12-04 @ Roeselare L 1-256.7 1559 1645 17.68% 24.33% 57.99%-0.45 -4.1 14
2016-12-09 Lommel United D 1-166.3 1553 1555 47.46% 26.82% 25.72%+0.13 -1.0 20
2016-12-09 @ Union SG D 1-166.3 1555 1553 25.72% 26.82% 47.46%-0.13 +1.0 15
2016-12-10 Lierse L 0-156.3 1554 1673 31.49% 27.50% 41.01%-0.30 -7.2 19
2016-12-10 @ Cercle Brugge W 1-056.3 1673 1554 41.01% 27.50% 31.49%+0.30 +7.2 38
2016-12-10 Roeselare L 1-267.0 1627 1649 44.79% 27.17% 28.04%+0.05 -8.9 23
2016-12-10 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-167.0 1649 1627 28.04% 27.17% 44.79%-0.05 +8.9 41
2016-12-11 Tubize D 1-169.3 1642 1543 59.50% 23.82% 16.68%+0.50 -2.0 27
2016-12-11 @ Antwerp D 1-169.3 1543 1642 16.68% 23.82% 59.50%-0.50 +2.0 22
2016-12-16 Antwerp L 2-463.4 1556 1640 36.24% 27.65% 36.11%-0.17 -11.7 15
2016-12-16 @ Lommel United W 4-263.4 1640 1556 36.11% 27.65% 36.24%+0.17 +11.7 30
2016-12-17 Cercle Brugge W 3-152.2 1658 1547 60.73% 23.38% 15.89%+0.54 +6.4 44
2016-12-17 @ Roeselare L 1-352.2 1547 1658 15.89% 23.38% 60.73%-0.54 -6.4 19
2016-12-17 Union SG W 3-045.4 1545 1552 46.75% 26.92% 26.32%+0.11 +17.2 25
2016-12-17 @ Tubize L 0-345.4 1552 1545 26.32% 26.92% 46.75%-0.11 -17.2 20
2016-12-18 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-171.0 1680 1618 55.33% 25.13% 19.54%+0.36 -1.6 39
2016-12-18 @ Lierse D 1-171.0 1618 1680 19.54% 25.13% 55.33%-0.36 +1.7 24
2017-01-06 Roeselare W 1-056.1 1652 1664 46.07% 27.02% 26.91%+0.09 +6.4 33
2017-01-06 @ Antwerp L 0-156.1 1664 1652 26.91% 27.02% 46.07%-0.09 -6.4 44
2017-01-07 Tubize W 2-157.8 1541 1562 44.97% 27.15% 27.88%+0.06 +6.2 22
2017-01-07 @ Cercle Brugge L 1-257.8 1562 1541 27.88% 27.15% 44.97%-0.06 -6.2 25
2017-01-08 Lommel United W 5-148.0 1678 1544 63.11% 22.45% 14.44%+0.62 +10.6 42
2017-01-08 @ Lierse L 1-548.0 1544 1678 14.44% 22.45% 63.11%-0.62 -10.6 15
2017-01-08 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 4-050.6 1535 1619 36.14% 27.65% 36.21%-0.17 +28.7 23
2017-01-08 @ Union SG L 0-450.6 1619 1535 36.21% 27.65% 36.14%+0.17 -28.7 24
2017-01-13 Roeselare D 1-168.4 1534 1658 30.74% 27.45% 41.81%-0.32 +0.5 16
2017-01-13 @ Lommel United D 1-168.4 1658 1534 41.81% 27.45% 30.74%+0.32 -0.5 45
2017-01-14 Tubize L 1-362.4 1591 1556 52.15% 25.93% 21.92%+0.26 -17.4 24
2017-01-14 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-162.4 1556 1591 21.92% 25.93% 52.15%-0.26 +17.4 28
2017-01-15 Antwerp L 0-156.1 1547 1658 32.44% 27.56% 40.01%-0.27 -7.4 22
2017-01-15 @ Cercle Brugge W 1-056.1 1658 1547 40.01% 27.56% 32.44%+0.27 +7.4 36
2017-01-15 Lierse D 0-064.8 1564 1689 30.60% 27.44% 41.96%-0.32 +0.5 24
2017-01-15 @ Union SG D 0-064.8 1689 1564 41.96% 27.44% 30.60%+0.32 -0.5 43
2017-01-20 Lommel United W 2-045.9 1573 1534 52.56% 25.84% 21.60%+0.27 +10.0 31
2017-01-20 @ Tubize L 0-245.9 1534 1573 21.60% 25.84% 52.56%-0.27 -10.0 16
2017-01-21 Cercle Brugge D 1-170.8 1688 1539 64.61% 21.82% 13.56%+0.68 -2.4 44
2017-01-21 @ Lierse D 1-170.8 1539 1688 13.56% 21.82% 64.61%-0.68 +2.4 23
2017-01-21 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-047.3 1665 1573 58.70% 24.09% 17.20%+0.47 +8.0 39
2017-01-21 @ Antwerp L 0-247.3 1573 1665 17.20% 24.09% 58.70%-0.47 -8.0 24
2017-01-22 Union SG L 0-163.3 1657 1564 58.84% 24.04% 17.11%+0.47 -11.8 45
2017-01-22 @ Roeselare W 1-063.3 1564 1657 17.11% 24.04% 58.84%-0.47 +11.8 27
2017-01-27 Lierse L 2-367.9 1565 1686 31.20% 27.48% 41.32%-0.31 -6.4 24
2017-01-27 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-267.9 1686 1565 41.32% 27.48% 31.20%+0.31 +6.4 47
2017-01-28 Roeselare D 2-274.4 1542 1646 33.42% 27.60% 38.98%-0.25 +0.2 24
2017-01-28 @ Cercle Brugge D 2-274.4 1646 1542 38.98% 27.60% 33.42%+0.25 -0.2 46
2017-01-28 Union SG D 0-061.0 1524 1576 40.80% 27.51% 31.69%-0.05 -0.4 17
2017-01-28 @ Lommel United D 0-061.0 1576 1524 31.69% 27.51% 40.80%+0.05 +0.4 28
2017-01-29 Antwerp L 2-464.2 1583 1673 35.28% 27.64% 37.08%-0.20 -11.5 31
2017-01-29 @ Tubize W 4-264.2 1673 1583 37.08% 27.64% 35.28%+0.20 +11.5 42
2017-02-03 Cercle Brugge L 0-155.8 1524 1542 45.36% 27.11% 27.54%+0.07 -9.5 17
2017-02-03 @ Lommel United W 1-055.8 1542 1524 27.54% 27.11% 45.36%-0.07 +9.5 27
2017-02-04 Antwerp D 1-169.7 1576 1685 32.79% 27.57% 39.64%-0.26 +0.3 29
2017-02-04 @ Union SG D 1-169.7 1685 1576 39.64% 27.57% 32.79%+0.26 -0.3 43
2017-02-04 Tubize W 3-045.0 1692 1571 61.78% 22.98% 15.24%+0.57 +10.3 50
2017-02-04 @ Lierse L 0-345.0 1571 1692 15.24% 22.98% 61.78%-0.57 -10.3 31
2017-02-05 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-156.6 1646 1559 58.11% 24.29% 17.60%+0.45 +4.1 49
2017-02-05 @ Roeselare L 1-256.6 1559 1646 17.60% 24.29% 58.11%-0.45 -4.1 24
2017-02-10 Union SG L 0-157.6 1552 1577 44.43% 27.21% 28.36%+0.04 -9.3 27
2017-02-10 @ Cercle Brugge W 1-057.6 1577 1552 28.36% 27.21% 44.43%-0.04 +9.3 32
2017-02-11 Lierse L 0-258.5 1685 1703 45.38% 27.10% 27.51%+0.07 -17.9 43
2017-02-11 @ Antwerp W 2-058.5 1703 1685 27.51% 27.10% 45.38%-0.07 +17.9 53
2017-02-11 Lommel United W 2-154.3 1555 1514 52.77% 25.79% 21.44%+0.28 +5.0 27
2017-02-11 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-254.3 1514 1555 21.44% 25.79% 52.77%-0.28 -5.0 17
2017-02-12 Roeselare W 3-159.9 1561 1650 35.55% 27.64% 36.80%-0.19 +13.2 34
2017-02-12 @ Tubize L 1-359.9 1650 1561 36.80% 27.64% 35.55%+0.19 -13.2 49
2017-02-17 Lierse D 1-169.7 1509 1720 21.23% 25.72% 53.05%-0.64 +1.4 18
2017-02-17 @ Lommel United D 1-169.7 1720 1509 53.05% 25.72% 21.23%+0.64 -1.5 54
2017-02-18 Antwerp L 1-267.1 1636 1667 43.73% 27.29% 28.98%+0.02 -8.7 49
2017-02-18 @ Roeselare W 2-167.1 1667 1636 28.98% 27.29% 43.73%-0.02 +8.7 46
2017-02-18 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-051.7 1542 1560 45.44% 27.10% 27.46%+0.07 +6.5 30
2017-02-18 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-151.7 1560 1542 27.46% 27.10% 45.44%-0.07 -6.5 27
2017-02-19 Tubize W 2-048.4 1586 1574 49.23% 26.53% 24.25%+0.18 +11.0 35
2017-02-19 @ Union SG L 0-248.4 1574 1586 24.25% 26.53% 49.23%-0.18 -11.0 34
2017-02-26 Cercle Brugge L 1-360.8 1563 1549 49.60% 26.46% 23.94%+0.19 -16.7 34
2017-02-26 @ Tubize W 3-160.8 1549 1563 23.94% 26.46% 49.60%-0.19 +16.7 33
2017-02-26 Lommel United W 1-047.9 1675 1511 66.15% 21.14% 12.71%+0.73 +3.1 49
2017-02-26 @ Antwerp L 0-147.9 1511 1675 12.71% 21.14% 66.15%-0.73 -3.1 18
2017-02-26 Roeselare D 1-171.8 1719 1628 58.63% 24.12% 17.26%+0.47 -1.9 55
2017-02-26 @ Lierse D 1-171.8 1628 1719 17.26% 24.12% 58.63%-0.47 +1.9 50
2017-02-26 Union SG W 2-050.3 1553 1597 41.88% 27.44% 30.68%-0.03 +13.3 30
2017-02-26 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-250.3 1597 1553 30.68% 27.44% 41.88%+0.03 -13.3 35

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2017-03-24 Tubize D 1-166.6 1567 1547 50.27% 26.33% 23.40%+0.21 -1.2 1
2017-03-24 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-166.6 1547 1567 23.40% 26.33% 50.27%-0.21 +1.2 1
2017-03-26 Lommel United L 0-553.9 1565 1508 54.81% 25.27% 19.92%+0.34 -48.9 0
2017-03-26 @ Cercle Brugge W 5-053.9 1508 1565 19.92% 25.27% 54.81%-0.34 +48.9 3
2017-03-31 Cercle Brugge D 2-271.2 1548 1516 51.68% 26.04% 22.28%+0.25 -1.0 2
2017-03-31 @ Tubize D 2-271.2 1516 1548 22.28% 26.04% 51.68%-0.25 +1.0 1
2017-04-01 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-157.9 1557 1565 46.62% 26.94% 26.44%+0.10 +5.9 6
2017-04-01 @ Lommel United L 1-257.9 1565 1557 26.44% 26.94% 46.62%-0.10 -5.9 1
2017-04-01 Mechelen W 3-0 1584 1834 17.93% 24.45% 57.62%-0.78 +31.7 3
2017-04-01 @ Union SG L 0-3 1834 1584 57.62% 24.45% 17.93%+0.78 -31.7 0
2017-04-01 Roeselare D 2-2 1684 1613 56.27% 24.86% 18.87%+0.39 -1.3 1
2017-04-01 @ Eupen D 2-2 1613 1684 18.87% 24.86% 56.27%-0.39 +1.3 1
2017-04-02 Standard Liege W 1-0 1717 1801 36.22% 27.65% 36.13%-0.17 +8.0 3
2017-04-02 @ Lierse L 0-1 1801 1717 36.13% 27.65% 36.22%+0.17 -8.0 0
2017-04-07 Cercle Brugge W 1-048.6 1559 1517 52.97% 25.74% 21.29%+0.29 +5.2 4
2017-04-07 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-148.6 1517 1559 21.29% 25.74% 52.97%-0.29 -5.2 1
2017-04-08 Lommel United D 0-061.4 1547 1563 45.66% 27.07% 27.27%+0.08 -0.9 3
2017-04-08 @ Tubize D 0-061.4 1563 1547 27.27% 27.07% 45.66%-0.08 +0.9 7
2017-04-08 Genk L 0-1 1615 1881 16.80% 23.88% 59.32%-0.84 -4.2 1
2017-04-08 @ Roeselare W 1-0 1881 1615 59.32% 23.88% 16.80%+0.84 +4.2 3
2017-04-08 Union SG L 1-4 1679 1615 55.46% 25.09% 19.45%+0.36 -25.9 0
2017-04-08 @ Waasland-Beveren W 4-1 1615 1679 19.45% 25.09% 55.46%-0.36 +25.9 6
2017-04-09 Lierse W 1-0 1803 1725 57.09% 24.61% 18.30%+0.42 +4.5 3
2017-04-09 @ Mechelen L 0-1 1725 1803 18.30% 24.61% 57.09%-0.42 -4.5 3
2017-04-14 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 0-060.2 1512 1565 40.68% 27.52% 31.80%-0.06 -0.4 2
2017-04-14 @ Cercle Brugge D 0-060.2 1565 1512 31.80% 27.52% 40.68%+0.06 +0.4 5
2017-04-14 Standard Liege D 2-2 1641 1792 27.51% 27.10% 45.38%-0.42 +0.6 7
2017-04-14 @ Union SG D 2-2 1792 1641 45.38% 27.10% 27.51%+0.42 -0.6 1
2017-04-15 Lierse W 2-1 1723 1721 48.11% 26.72% 25.18%+0.14 +5.7 3
2017-04-15 @ Sint-Truiden L 1-2 1721 1723 25.18% 26.72% 48.11%-0.14 -5.7 3
2017-04-15 Royal Excel Mouscron L 3-5 1610 1663 40.71% 27.52% 31.77%-0.06 -12.1 1
2017-04-15 @ Roeselare W 5-3 1663 1610 31.77% 27.52% 40.71%+0.06 +12.1 3
2017-04-17 Tubize W 2-156.5 1564 1546 49.98% 26.39% 23.63%+0.20 +5.4 10
2017-04-17 @ Lommel United L 1-256.5 1546 1564 23.63% 26.39% 49.98%-0.20 -5.4 3
2017-04-21 Cercle Brugge L 0-158.6 1569 1512 54.77% 25.28% 19.95%+0.34 -11.1 10
2017-04-21 @ Lommel United W 1-058.6 1512 1569 19.95% 25.28% 54.77%-0.34 +11.1 5
2017-04-22 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-052.1 1541 1565 44.50% 27.21% 28.29%+0.04 +6.7 6
2017-04-22 @ Tubize L 0-152.1 1565 1541 28.29% 27.21% 44.50%-0.04 -6.6 5
2017-04-22 Roeselare W 2-1 1737 1598 63.63% 22.24% 14.13%+0.64 +3.3 3
2017-04-22 @ Sporting Lokeren L 1-2 1598 1737 14.13% 22.24% 63.63%-0.64 -3.3 1
2017-04-22 Waasland-Beveren L 2-3 1715 1647 56.04% 24.93% 19.03%+0.38 -10.1 3
2017-04-22 @ Lierse W 3-2 1647 1715 19.03% 24.93% 56.04%-0.38 +10.1 3
2017-04-22 Union SG L 0-1 1729 1642 58.18% 24.27% 17.55%+0.45 -11.7 3
2017-04-22 @ Sint-Truiden W 1-0 1642 1729 17.55% 24.27% 58.18%-0.45 +11.7 10
2017-04-25 Kortrijk L 2-3 1595 1705 32.65% 27.57% 39.78%-0.27 -6.6 1
2017-04-25 @ Roeselare W 3-2 1705 1595 39.78% 27.57% 32.65%+0.27 +6.6 3
2017-04-25 Lierse L 1-3 1654 1705 40.85% 27.51% 31.64%-0.05 -14.3 10
2017-04-25 @ Union SG W 3-1 1705 1654 31.64% 27.51% 40.85%+0.05 +14.3 6
2017-04-28 Lommel United W 1-051.4 1558 1558 47.81% 26.77% 25.43%+0.14 +6.1 8
2017-04-28 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-151.4 1558 1558 25.43% 26.77% 47.81%-0.14 -6.1 10
2017-04-28 Tubize D 1-164.9 1523 1547 44.54% 27.20% 28.26%+0.04 -0.7 6
2017-04-28 @ Cercle Brugge D 1-164.9 1547 1523 28.26% 27.20% 44.54%-0.04 +0.7 7
2017-04-28 Union SG W 3-1 1762 1639 62.00% 22.90% 15.11%+0.58 +6.1 4
2017-04-28 @ Standard Liege L 1-3 1639 1762 15.11% 22.90% 62.00%-0.58 -6.1 10
2017-04-29 Mechelen D 0-0 1719 1823 33.42% 27.60% 38.98%-0.25 +0.3 7
2017-04-29 @ Lierse D 0-0 1823 1719 38.98% 27.60% 33.42%+0.25 -0.3 4
2017-04-30 Roeselare W 1-0 1663 1589 56.72% 24.72% 18.55%+0.40 +4.6 6
2017-04-30 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-1 1589 1663 18.55% 24.72% 56.72%-0.40 -4.6 1
2017-05-06 Roeselare L 0-3 1704 1584 61.72% 23.00% 15.28%+0.57 -33.5 3
2017-05-06 @ Kortrijk W 3-0 1584 1704 15.28% 23.00% 61.72%-0.57 +33.5 4
2017-05-06 Union SG W 2-1 1719 1633 58.06% 24.30% 17.63%+0.45 +4.1 10
2017-05-06 @ Lierse L 1-2 1633 1719 17.63% 24.30% 58.06%-0.45 -4.1 10
2017-05-13 Lierse W 3-2 1692 1723 43.53% 27.30% 29.17%+0.02 +6.1 6
2017-05-13 @ Waasland-Beveren L 2-3 1723 1692 29.17% 27.30% 43.53%-0.02 -6.1 10
2017-05-13 Sint-Truiden L 1-4 1629 1730 33.86% 27.61% 38.53%-0.23 -17.6 10
2017-05-13 @ Union SG W 4-1 1730 1629 38.53% 27.61% 33.86%+0.23 +17.6 6
2017-05-13 Sporting Lokeren L 2-3 1617 1752 29.48% 27.34% 43.18%-0.36 -6.1 4
2017-05-13 @ Roeselare W 3-2 1752 1617 43.18% 27.34% 29.48%+0.36 +6.1 6
2017-05-16 Sint-Truiden L 1-3 1717 1747 43.78% 27.28% 28.94%+0.02 -15.1 10
2017-05-16 @ Lierse W 3-1 1747 1717 28.94% 27.28% 43.78%-0.02 +15.1 9
2017-05-16 Union SG W 1-0 1789 1611 67.37% 20.58% 12.05%+0.78 +2.9 7
2017-05-16 @ Mechelen L 0-1 1611 1789 12.05% 20.58% 67.37%-0.78 -2.9 10
2017-05-17 Roeselare W 3-1 1930 1611 79.08% 14.29% 6.63%+1.30 +2.3 6
2017-05-17 @ Genk L 1-3 1611 1930 6.63% 14.29% 79.08%-1.30 -2.3 4
2017-05-19 Lierse W 2-0 1788 1702 57.97% 24.33% 17.69%+0.45 +8.3 7
2017-05-19 @ Standard Liege L 0-2 1702 1788 17.69% 24.33% 57.97%-0.45 -8.3 10
2017-05-19 Waasland-Beveren L 1-3 1608 1684 37.36% 27.64% 35.00%-0.14 -13.4 10
2017-05-19 @ Union SG W 3-1 1684 1608 35.00% 27.64% 37.36%+0.14 +13.4 9
2017-05-20 Eupen W 3-2 1609 1704 34.68% 27.63% 37.69%-0.21 +7.4 7
2017-05-20 @ Roeselare L 2-3 1704 1609 37.69% 27.63% 34.68%+0.21 -7.4 1

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2017-03-05 Roeselare W 3-156.1 1678 1630 53.78% 25.54% 20.68%+0.31 +8.3 1-0
2017-03-05 @ Antwerp L 1-356.1 1630 1678 20.68% 25.54% 53.78%-0.31 -8.3 0-1
2017-03-11 Antwerp L 1-265.8 1621 1687 38.85% 27.60% 33.54%-0.11 -7.9 0-2
2017-03-11 @ Roeselare W 2-165.8 1687 1621 33.54% 27.60% 38.85%+0.11 +8.0 2-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2016-09-11 15.08% Roeselare 1532 2 @ Lommel United 1656 1
2 2016-10-30 16.38% Lommel United 1564 2 @ Lierse 1667 0
3 2016-10-02 16.44% Roeselare 1558 2 @ Lierse 1660 0
4 2017-01-22 17.11% Union SG 1564 1 @ Roeselare 1657 0
5 2016-08-12 17.40% Union SG 1557 3 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1647 0
6 2017-03-26 19.92% Lommel United 1508 5 @ Cercle Brugge 1565 0
7 2017-04-21 19.95% Cercle Brugge 1512 1 @ Lommel United 1569 0
8 2016-09-11 20.77% Tubize 1568 1 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1615 0
9 2017-01-14 21.92% Tubize 1556 3 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1591 1
10 2016-10-08 22.51% Tubize 1564 6 @ Lommel United 1593 3
11 2016-09-30 22.82% Tubize 1562 1 @ Union SG 1588 0
12 2016-11-26 23.42% Tubize 1549 2 @ Lommel United 1569 1
13 2016-11-06 23.49% Union SG 1567 2 @ Lommel United 1586 1
14 2016-12-03 23.58% Cercle Brugge 1545 2 @ Union SG 1563 1
15 2017-02-26 23.94% Cercle Brugge 1549 3 @ Tubize 1563 1
16 2016-09-09 24.28% Lierse 1608 2 @ Antwerp 1619 1
17 2016-09-25 25.11% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1604 4 @ Cercle Brugge 1607 2
18 2016-09-25 25.67% Lierse 1633 3 @ Lommel United 1632 0
19 2016-08-14 26.82% Lommel United 1613 4 @ Tubize 1601 0
20 2017-02-11 27.51% Lierse 1703 2 @ Antwerp 1685 0
21 2017-02-03 27.54% Cercle Brugge 1542 1 @ Lommel United 1524 0
22 2016-08-19 27.67% Lommel United 1648 1 @ Antwerp 1628 0
23 2016-12-10 28.04% Roeselare 1649 2 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1627 1
24 2017-02-10 28.36% Union SG 1577 1 @ Cercle Brugge 1552 0
25 2016-10-28 28.77% Roeselare 1608 3 @ Cercle Brugge 1580 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-03-26 48.94 Lommel United 5 1508 19.92% @ Cercle Brugge 0 1565 54.81% 25.27%
2 2016-08-14 34.51 Lommel United 4 1613 26.82% @ Tubize 0 1601 46.18% 27.00%
3 2016-08-12 32.04 Union SG 3 1557 17.40% @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0 1647 58.42% 24.19%
4 2017-01-08 28.66 @ Union SG 4 1535 36.14% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0 1619 36.21% 27.65%
5 2016-09-25 27.03 Lierse 3 1633 25.67% @ Lommel United 0 1632 47.51% 26.81%
6 2016-10-28 25.40 Roeselare 3 1608 28.77% @ Cercle Brugge 0 1580 43.97% 27.26%
7 2016-10-30 22.54 Lommel United 2 1564 16.38% @ Lierse 0 1667 59.97% 23.65%
8 2016-10-02 22.51 Roeselare 2 1558 16.44% @ Lierse 0 1660 59.87% 23.69%
9 2016-11-20 21.71 Lierse 3 1659 36.65% @ Tubize 0 1571 35.71% 27.65%
10 2016-10-08 19.48 Tubize 6 1564 22.51% @ Lommel United 3 1593 51.39% 26.10%
11 2016-10-04 18.92 @ Antwerp 4 1616 52.57% Union SG 0 1578 21.59% 25.84%
12 2017-02-11 17.94 Lierse 2 1703 27.51% @ Antwerp 0 1685 45.38% 27.10%
13 2017-01-14 17.39 Tubize 3 1556 21.92% @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1591 52.15% 25.93%
14 2016-12-17 17.16 @ Tubize 3 1545 46.75% Union SG 0 1552 26.32% 26.92%
15 2017-02-26 16.69 Cercle Brugge 3 1549 23.94% @ Tubize 1 1563 49.60% 26.46%
16 2016-12-03 16.53 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1610 31.61% @ Tubize 0 1559 40.88% 27.51%
17 2016-09-17 15.72 @ Lierse 5 1618 52.63% Tubize 1 1579 21.54% 25.82%
18 2016-10-29 14.79 @ Union SG 2 1552 37.17% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0 1629 35.18% 27.64%
19 2016-09-25 14.58 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4 1604 25.11% @ Cercle Brugge 2 1607 48.19% 26.71%
20 2016-11-06 14.06 @ Tubize 4 1555 47.82% Cercle Brugge 1 1555 25.41% 26.76%
21 2016-09-04 13.69 @ Tubize 4 1554 48.77% Roeselare 1 1546 24.62% 26.61%
22 2016-10-21 13.37 Lierse 3 1654 35.06% @ Tubize 1 1578 37.30% 27.64%
23 2017-02-26 13.35 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1553 41.88% Union SG 0 1597 30.68% 27.44%
24 2017-02-12 13.23 @ Tubize 3 1561 35.55% Roeselare 1 1650 36.80% 27.64%
25 2016-08-21 12.71 @ Cercle Brugge 4 1595 51.28% Tubize 1 1567 22.59% 26.12%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-12-02 77.1 @ Lierse 2 1674 51.85% Antwerp 2 1641 22.15% 26.00%
2 2016-08-07 76.0 @ Lommel United 2 1614 43.40% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1646 29.28% 27.32%
3 2016-10-02 75.5 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1618 49.45% Lommel United 2 1605 24.06% 26.49%
4 2016-09-02 75.4 @ Lierse 2 1609 46.97% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1615 26.13% 26.89%
5 2016-08-21 74.8 @ Union SG 2 1589 45.24% Lierse 2 1608 27.64% 27.12%
6 2016-11-12 74.4 @ Lommel United 2 1576 43.90% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1605 28.84% 27.27%
7 2017-01-28 74.4 @ Cercle Brugge 2 1542 33.42% Roeselare 2 1646 38.98% 27.60%
8 2016-08-06 74.3 @ Tubize 2 1602 53.46% Union SG 2 1556 20.92% 25.62%
9 2016-09-25 74.1 @ Tubize 2 1563 41.30% Antwerp 2 1611 31.22% 27.48%
10 2016-08-20 73.7 @ Roeselare 2 1546 38.41% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1615 33.98% 27.62%
11 2016-08-05 73.4 @ Roeselare 2 1551 41.71% Lierse 2 1596 30.84% 27.46%
12 2017-02-26 71.8 @ Lierse 1 1719 58.63% Roeselare 1 1628 17.26% 24.12%
13 2017-03-31 71.2 @ Tubize 2 1548 51.68% Cercle Brugge 2 1516 22.28% 26.04%
14 2016-12-18 71.0 @ Lierse 1 1680 55.33% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1618 19.54% 25.13%
15 2017-01-21 70.8 @ Lierse 1 1688 64.61% Cercle Brugge 1 1539 13.56% 21.82%
16 2016-09-03 70.4 @ Lommel United 1 1657 53.87% Cercle Brugge 1 1607 20.61% 25.52%
17 2017-02-04 69.7 @ Union SG 1 1576 32.79% Antwerp 1 1685 39.64% 27.57%
18 2017-02-17 69.7 @ Lommel United 1 1509 21.23% Lierse 1 1720 53.05% 25.72%
19 2016-11-12 69.6 @ Roeselare 1 1640 56.29% Tubize 1 1569 18.86% 24.85%
20 2016-10-09 69.4 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1626 51.94% Roeselare 1 1593 22.08% 25.98%
21 2016-08-07 69.3 @ Cercle Brugge 1 1608 45.73% Antwerp 1 1623 27.21% 27.06%
22 2016-12-11 69.3 @ Antwerp 1 1642 59.50% Tubize 1 1543 16.68% 23.82%
23 2016-09-11 69.2 Roeselare 2 1532 15.08% @ Lommel United 1 1656 62.04% 22.88%
24 2016-09-18 69.1 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1604 47.04% Antwerp 1 1610 26.08% 26.88%
25 2016-09-04 68.8 @ Union SG 1 1589 43.75% Antwerp 1 1619 28.96% 27.28%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-02-04 45.0 @ Lierse 3 1692 61.78% Tubize 0 1571 15.24% 22.98%
2 2016-12-17 45.4 @ Tubize 3 1545 46.75% Union SG 0 1552 26.32% 26.92%
3 2017-01-20 45.9 @ Tubize 2 1573 52.56% Lommel United 0 1534 21.60% 25.84%
4 2016-10-04 46.6 @ Antwerp 4 1616 52.57% Union SG 0 1578 21.59% 25.84%
5 2016-10-30 47.3 @ Antwerp 2 1630 55.76% Tubize 0 1564 19.23% 25.01%
6 2017-01-21 47.3 @ Antwerp 2 1665 58.70% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0 1573 17.20% 24.09%
7 2016-11-26 47.7 @ Antwerp 2 1632 55.06% Union SG 0 1572 19.73% 25.20%
8 2017-02-26 47.9 @ Antwerp 1 1675 66.15% Lommel United 0 1511 12.71% 21.14%
9 2017-01-08 48.0 @ Lierse 5 1678 63.11% Lommel United 1 1544 14.44% 22.45%
10 2017-02-19 48.4 @ Union SG 2 1586 49.23% Tubize 0 1574 24.25% 26.53%
11 2017-04-07 48.6 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1559 52.97% Cercle Brugge 0 1517 21.29% 25.74%
12 2016-10-22 49.0 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1619 51.36% Cercle Brugge 0 1590 22.53% 26.11%
13 2016-08-14 50.3 @ Lierse 2 1596 46.39% Cercle Brugge 0 1607 26.64% 26.97%
14 2016-09-04 50.3 @ Tubize 4 1554 48.77% Roeselare 1 1546 24.62% 26.61%
15 2017-02-26 50.3 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1553 41.88% Union SG 0 1597 30.68% 27.44%
16 2016-08-13 50.4 @ Antwerp 1 1624 56.59% Roeselare 0 1551 18.64% 24.76%
17 2016-10-05 50.5 @ Roeselare 2 1580 44.39% Lommel United 0 1606 28.39% 27.22%
18 2016-11-27 50.5 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1605 54.58% Cercle Brugge 0 1550 20.09% 25.34%
19 2016-09-17 50.6 @ Lierse 5 1618 52.63% Tubize 1 1579 21.54% 25.82%
20 2017-01-08 50.6 @ Union SG 4 1535 36.14% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0 1619 36.21% 27.65%
21 2016-11-06 50.9 @ Tubize 4 1555 47.82% Cercle Brugge 1 1555 25.41% 26.76%
22 2016-10-09 51.1 @ Lierse 2 1638 48.12% Antwerp 0 1635 25.16% 26.72%
23 2016-08-21 51.4 @ Cercle Brugge 4 1595 51.28% Tubize 1 1567 22.59% 26.12%
24 2017-04-28 51.4 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1558 47.81% Lommel United 0 1558 25.43% 26.77%
25 2016-11-11 51.5 @ Lierse 1 1654 57.06% Union SG 0 1577 18.32% 24.62%