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2017-18 First Division B Season

124 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Promoted

Cercle Brugge

via playoff

Relegated

Lierse

via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Cercle Brugge

11.34 points above expected

50 points · 38.66 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Westerlo

8.72 points below expected

27 points · 35.72 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Cercle Brugge Promoted 28 14 8 6 50 50 34 +16 38.66 +11.34
2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 28 12 11 5 47 43 27 +16 41.70 +5.30
3 Beerschot Wilrijk 28 12 10 6 46 42 27 +15 45.74 +0.26
4 Lierse Relegated 28 11 6 11 39 35 47 -12 41.45 -2.45
5 Roeselare 28 9 8 11 35 26 43 -17 34.51 +0.49
6 Union SG 28 8 8 12 32 32 33 -1 37.35 -5.35
7 Westerlo 28 5 12 11 27 31 35 -4 35.72 -8.72
8 Tubize 28 4 11 13 23 21 34 -13 30.85 -7.85
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Westerlo 6 3 3 0 12 6 1 +5 — —
2 Roeselare 6 3 3 0 12 5 1 +4 — —
3 Union SG 6 1 1 4 4 2 6 -4 — —
4 Tubize 6 0 3 3 3 3 8 -5 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cercle Brugge 50 38.66 +11.34
2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 47 41.70 +5.30
3 Roeselare 35 34.51 +0.49
4 Beerschot Wilrijk 46 45.74 +0.26
5 Lierse 39 41.45 -2.45

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Westerlo 27 35.72 -8.72
2 Tubize 23 30.85 -7.85
3 Union SG 32 37.35 -5.35
4 Lierse 39 41.45 -2.45
5 Beerschot Wilrijk 46 45.74 +0.26

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lierse 7 Oct 21 – Dec 2 1 in 502
2 Cercle Brugge 6 Dec 8 – Jan 27 1 in 334
3 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4 Sep 30 – Oct 13 1 in 32
4 Beerschot Wilrijk 3 Aug 20 – Sep 10 1 in 14
5 Tubize 2 Dec 17 – Jan 7 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Westerlo 4 Oct 28 – Nov 18 1 in 63
2 Roeselare 4 Nov 25 – Dec 17 1 in 52
3 Lierse 3 Feb 3 – Feb 16 1 in 37
4 Union SG 3 Oct 23 – Nov 5 1 in 25
5 Tubize 4 Jan 10 – Jan 27 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cercle Brugge 12 Nov 24 – Feb 25 1 in 110
2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 11 Aug 19 – Oct 28 1 in 106
3 Westerlo 7 Jan 12 – Feb 25 1 in 45
4 Beerschot Wilrijk 9 Aug 4 – Oct 4 1 in 28
5 Tubize 5 Nov 19 – Jan 7 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Westerlo 10 Oct 4 – Dec 2 1 in 66
2 Lierse 6 Aug 5 – Sep 16 1 in 37
3 Tubize 8 Jan 10 – Feb 25 1 in 11
4 Cercle Brugge 4 Feb 2 – Feb 25 1 in 11
5 Beerschot Wilrijk 4 Feb 4 – Feb 25 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Cercle Brugge 1582 50 +1 7 8.2 -1.2
Roeselare 1502 47 +22 11 6.0 +5.0
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1575 47 -3 6 7.7 -1.7
Beerschot Wilrijk 1590 46 -5 6 8.3 -2.3
Westerlo 1559 39 +18 9 8.0 +1.0
Lierse 1527 39 -37 4 7.3 -3.3
Union SG 1510 36 -19 4 7.7 -3.7
Tubize 1444 26 -22 2 5.7 -3.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BW CB LIE OL ROE TUB US WES
Beerschot Wilrijk —
1-0-3
6.86
1-2-1
5.84
0-3-1
6.00
3-1-0
6.54
4-0-0
7.24
3-0-1
6.43
0-4-0
6.51
Cercle Brugge
3-0-1
4.10
 —
2-0-2
4.83
1-1-2
5.30
2-1-1
5.81
1-3-0
6.33
2-2-0
5.46
3-1-0
5.51
Lierse
1-2-1
5.08
2-0-2
6.08
 —
1-1-2
5.57
1-1-2
6.25
2-1-1
6.86
2-0-2
5.92
2-1-1
6.15
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
1-3-0
4.91
2-1-1
5.59
2-1-1
5.32
 —
1-2-1
6.04
3-1-0
6.80
2-2-0
5.87
1-1-2
6.09
Roeselare
0-1-3
4.41
1-1-2
5.12
2-1-1
4.67
1-2-1
4.90
 —
2-1-1
5.92
2-0-2
5.03
1-2-1
5.28
Tubize
0-0-4
3.75
0-3-1
4.61
1-1-2
4.09
0-1-3
4.15
1-1-2
4.99
 —
1-3-0
4.50
1-2-1
4.56
Union SG
1-0-3
4.49
0-2-2
5.44
2-0-2
4.99
0-2-2
5.04
2-0-2
5.87
0-3-1
6.43
 —
3-1-0
5.30
Westerlo
0-4-0
4.42
0-1-3
5.41
1-1-2
4.77
2-1-1
4.83
1-2-1
5.62
1-2-1
6.37
0-1-3
5.61
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +9.5
Allowed 0.08 -3.9
Differential 0.60 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.29%9.68%3.63%2.82%2.42%0.81%30.65%
19.68%15.32%8.87%2.02%0.81%0.40%37.10%
23.63%8.87%7.26%1.61%——21.37%
32.82%2.02%1.61%———6.45%
42.42%0.81%————3.23%
5+0.81%0.40%————1.21%
Total30.65%37.10%21.37%6.45%3.23%1.21%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.19 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.16 1.75
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 124

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%—3.57%3.57%—21.43%
117.86%14.29%7.14%———39.29%
2—7.14%10.71%3.57%——21.43%
37.14%—————7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total46.43%25.00%17.86%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.96 +0.54
SD 1.32 1.14 1.95
CV 0.88 1.18 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%—3.57%——14.29%
17.14%17.86%3.57%——3.57%32.14%
27.14%7.14%7.14%3.57%——25.00%
37.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
47.14%3.57%————10.71%
5+———————
Total32.14%39.29%17.86%7.14%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.21 +0.57
SD 1.23 1.45 2.08
CV 0.69 1.19 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%10.71%—3.57%3.57%25.00%
110.71%7.14%7.14%—3.57%—28.57%
23.57%21.43%14.29%3.57%——42.86%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%35.71%35.71%3.57%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.68 -0.43
SD 0.89 1.33 1.79
CV 0.71 0.80 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%————17.86%
110.71%17.86%3.57%3.57%——35.71%
27.14%14.29%14.29%———35.71%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total28.57%50.00%17.86%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 0.96 +0.57
SD 1.37 0.79 1.53
CV 0.89 0.82 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.59%5.88%2.94%2.94%8.82%2.94%44.12%
111.76%8.82%5.88%—2.94%—29.41%
22.94%11.76%2.94%———17.65%
3—8.82%————8.82%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.29%35.29%11.76%2.94%11.76%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.29 -0.38
SD 1.00 1.45 1.89
CV 1.09 1.12 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.71%17.65%5.88%—2.94%—41.18%
1—26.47%14.71%5.88%——47.06%
22.94%8.82%————11.76%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total17.65%52.94%20.59%5.88%2.94%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.71 1.24 -0.53
SD 0.68 0.92 1.11
CV 0.96 0.75 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%17.65%5.88%5.88%——38.24%
111.76%14.71%14.71%2.94%——44.12%
2——2.94%———2.94%
35.88%—2.94%———8.82%
42.94%2.94%————5.88%
5+———————
Total29.41%35.29%26.47%8.82%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.15 -0.15
SD 1.15 0.96 1.64
CV 1.15 0.83 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.59%5.88%2.94%5.88%——35.29%
18.82%14.71%11.76%2.94%——38.24%
25.88%2.94%8.82%2.94%——20.59%
3———————
42.94%—————2.94%
5+2.94%—————2.94%
Total41.18%23.53%23.53%11.76%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.06 +0.03
SD 1.26 1.07 1.71
CV 1.16 1.01 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Cercle Brugge 1586 50 38.66 +11.34 94.0% 22 29 35 38 42 51 55
Beerschot Wilrijk 1570 46 45.74 +0.26 56.0% 27 32 42 45 50 59 62
Westerlo 1559 27 35.72 -8.72 11.0% 21 26 31 36 40 47 52
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1559 47 41.70 +5.30 78.0% 25 31 36 42 47 53 56
Union SG 1510 32 37.35 -5.35 22.0% 21 25 33 37 42 49 54
Roeselare 1502 35 34.51 +0.49 57.0% 17 23 29 34 39 48 52
Lierse 1484 39 41.45 -2.45 42.0% 27 30 36 41 47 53 59
Tubize 1444 23 30.85 -7.85 9.0% 15 21 26 30 36 40 45

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.29%
No Edge
38.71%33.87%27.42%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 39.39 Elo pts.
275 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.32 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.3
Wide Open
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
12%
Cercle Brugge, 4th of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.51 * Some Luck: 5.51 to 8.26 * Lucky: 8.26 to 11.02 * Wild Swing: 11.02 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.34 * Close: 1.34 to 2 * Off: 2 to 2.67 * Way Off: 2.67 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1 * A Surprise: 1 to 1.6 * Several Surprises: 1.6 to 2.2 * Many Surprises: 2.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.36 points
Some Luck
06.8817
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.25
Pinpoint
01.674
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
94.00%
Cercle Brugge
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
9.00%
Tubize
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 1.0
1 of 1
A Surprise
01

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 46.12
1.50
Coin-Flip Parity
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
67%
Even
50%69%100%
Close Games
Expected
74%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Occasional
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Coin-Flip
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.22
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.98
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
-0.21
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.40
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.96
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.047
Well Within Noise
00.1570.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Cercle Brugge 3
Beerschot Wilrijk 2

Leg 1: Cercle Brugge 3-1 Beerschot Wilrijk

Leg 2: Beerschot Wilrijk 1-0 Cercle Brugge

Sim: 4.0%

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Cercle Brugge12.00%8.00%16.00%18.00%20.00%14.00%8.00%4.00%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven22.00%19.00%14.00%15.00%10.00%10.00%6.00%4.00%
Beerschot Wilrijk37.00%24.00%16.00%7.00%4.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%
Lierse16.00%21.00%17.00%9.00%15.00%11.00%8.00%3.00%
Roeselare3.00%7.00%5.00%12.00%11.00%21.00%18.00%23.00%
Union SG7.00%12.00%12.00%18.00%14.00%13.00%14.00%10.00%
Westerlo3.00%6.00%15.00%13.00%16.00%14.00%19.00%14.00%
Tubize—3.00%5.00%8.00%10.00%11.00%22.00%41.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Lost promotion playoff Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Beerschot Wilrijk — 100% — —
Cercle Brugge — 100% — —
Lierse 34.00% 37.00% 26.00% 3.00%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 26.00% 41.00% 29.00% 4.00%
Roeselare 50.00% 10.00% 17.00% 23.00%
Tubize 43.00% 3.00% 13.00% 41.00%
Union SG 41.00% 19.00% 30.00% 10.00%
Westerlo 49.00% 9.00% 28.00% 14.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Beerschot WilrijkCercle BruggeLierseOud-Heverlee LeuvenRoeselareTubizeUnion SGWesterlo
Beerschot Wilrijk20.0%5.00%75.0%8.00%46.7%15.00%75.0%4.00%100.0%3.00%88.9%9.00%54.5%11.00%
Cercle Brugge80.0%5.00%66.7%3.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%100.0%3.00%
Lierse25.0%8.00%33.3%3.00%57.1%7.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%66.7%3.00%75.0%4.00%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven53.3%15.00%100.0%2.00%42.9%7.00%50.0%2.00%66.7%3.00%100.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%
Roeselare25.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Tubize0.0%3.00%100.0%2.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%
Union SG11.1%9.00%50.0%4.00%33.3%3.00%0.0%3.00%0.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%
Westerlo45.5%11.00%0.0%3.00%25.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Beerschot Wilrijk 51.72%
Cercle Brugge 48.28%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Beerschot WilrijkCercle Brugge
Beerschot Wilrijk51.7%100.00%
Cercle Brugge48.3%100.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for relegation playoff
Roeselare 100% —
Tubize — 100%
Union SG 100% —
Westerlo 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2017-08-04 Union SG W 3-047.4 1556 1533 45.64% 27.06% 27.30%+0.23 +12.1 3
2017-08-04 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-347.4 1533 1556 27.30% 27.06% 45.64%-0.23 -12.0 0
2017-08-05 Lierse D 2-271.5 1514 1594 31.24% 27.68% 41.07%-0.15 +0.2 1
2017-08-05 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-271.5 1594 1514 41.07% 27.68% 31.24%+0.15 -0.2 1
2017-08-05 Roeselare L 1-356.4 1503 1546 36.41% 27.92% 35.68%-0.01 -9.0 0
2017-08-05 @ Tubize W 3-156.4 1546 1503 35.68% 27.92% 36.41%+0.01 +9.0 3
2017-08-06 Cercle Brugge L 1-262.7 1556 1487 51.73% 25.60% 22.66%+0.39 -6.8 0
2017-08-06 @ Westerlo W 2-162.7 1487 1556 22.66% 25.60% 51.73%-0.39 +6.8 3
2017-08-11 Union SG W 2-048.0 1494 1521 38.71% 27.85% 33.44%+0.05 +9.7 6
2017-08-11 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-248.0 1521 1494 33.44% 27.85% 38.71%-0.05 -9.7 0
2017-08-12 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-153.4 1555 1514 48.05% 26.57% 25.39%+0.29 +6.8 6
2017-08-12 @ Roeselare L 1-353.4 1514 1555 25.39% 26.57% 48.05%-0.29 -6.8 1
2017-08-12 Tubize D 1-163.6 1549 1494 49.94% 26.10% 23.96%+0.34 -0.8 1
2017-08-12 @ Westerlo D 1-163.6 1494 1549 23.96% 26.10% 49.94%-0.34 +0.8 1
2017-08-13 Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-273.3 1594 1568 46.02% 26.99% 26.99%+0.24 -0.4 2
2017-08-13 @ Lierse D 2-273.3 1568 1594 26.99% 26.99% 46.02%-0.24 +0.4 4
2017-08-18 Roeselare D 2-273.2 1593 1561 46.82% 26.83% 26.35%+0.26 -0.5 3
2017-08-18 @ Lierse D 2-273.2 1561 1593 26.35% 26.83% 46.82%-0.26 +0.5 7
2017-08-19 Cercle Brugge W 7-147.8 1507 1504 42.89% 27.48% 29.63%+0.15 +20.3 4
2017-08-19 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-747.8 1504 1507 29.63% 27.48% 42.89%-0.15 -20.3 6
2017-08-19 Westerlo W 3-048.9 1511 1549 37.06% 27.91% 35.03%+0.01 +14.6 3
2017-08-19 @ Union SG L 0-348.9 1549 1511 35.03% 27.91% 37.06%-0.01 -14.6 1
2017-08-20 Tubize W 1-048.3 1568 1495 52.28% 25.44% 22.29%+0.41 +3.7 7
2017-08-20 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-148.3 1495 1568 22.29% 25.44% 52.28%-0.41 -3.7 1
2017-09-01 Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-453.1 1562 1572 41.05% 27.69% 31.27%+0.11 -21.5 7
2017-09-01 @ Roeselare W 4-053.1 1572 1562 31.27% 27.69% 41.05%-0.11 +21.5 10
2017-09-02 Lierse W 2-053.5 1484 1593 27.74% 27.15% 45.11%-0.25 +12.2 9
2017-09-02 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-253.5 1593 1484 45.11% 27.15% 27.74%+0.25 -12.2 3
2017-09-02 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-270.0 1534 1527 43.36% 27.42% 29.22%+0.17 -0.3 2
2017-09-02 @ Westerlo D 2-270.0 1527 1534 29.22% 27.42% 43.36%-0.17 +0.3 5
2017-09-03 Union SG D 0-056.9 1491 1525 37.62% 27.89% 34.48%+0.02 -0.1 2
2017-09-03 @ Tubize D 0-056.9 1525 1491 34.48% 27.89% 37.62%-0.02 +0.1 4
2017-09-08 Tubize W 2-045.5 1528 1491 47.44% 26.70% 25.86%+0.28 +7.9 8
2017-09-08 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-245.5 1491 1528 25.86% 26.70% 47.44%-0.28 -7.9 2
2017-09-09 Roeselare W 4-048.2 1526 1540 40.34% 27.75% 31.92%+0.09 +17.8 7
2017-09-09 @ Union SG L 0-448.2 1540 1526 31.92% 27.75% 40.34%-0.09 -17.8 7
2017-09-09 Westerlo D 2-272.1 1581 1534 48.85% 26.38% 24.77%+0.31 -0.5 4
2017-09-09 @ Lierse D 2-272.1 1534 1581 24.77% 26.38% 48.85%-0.31 +0.5 3
2017-09-10 Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-151.8 1496 1593 29.10% 27.40% 43.50%-0.21 -4.6 9
2017-09-10 @ Cercle Brugge W 1-051.8 1593 1496 43.50% 27.40% 29.10%+0.21 +4.6 13
2017-09-15 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 0-059.3 1543 1536 43.51% 27.40% 29.09%+0.17 -0.5 8
2017-09-15 @ Union SG D 0-059.3 1536 1543 29.09% 27.40% 43.51%-0.17 +0.5 9
2017-09-16 Lierse W 2-052.6 1483 1580 29.21% 27.42% 43.37%-0.21 +11.8 5
2017-09-16 @ Tubize L 0-252.6 1580 1483 43.37% 27.42% 29.21%+0.21 -11.8 4
2017-09-16 Westerlo D 2-272.8 1598 1534 51.07% 25.80% 23.14%+0.37 -0.6 14
2017-09-16 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-272.8 1534 1598 23.14% 25.80% 51.07%-0.37 +0.6 4
2017-09-17 Cercle Brugge W 2-154.3 1523 1491 46.78% 26.84% 26.38%+0.26 +4.0 10
2017-09-17 @ Roeselare L 1-254.3 1491 1523 26.38% 26.84% 46.78%-0.26 -4.0 9
2017-09-23 Tubize W 4-044.8 1487 1495 41.29% 27.66% 31.05%+0.11 +17.5 12
2017-09-23 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-444.8 1495 1487 31.05% 27.66% 41.29%-0.11 -17.5 5
2017-09-23 Union SG W 2-158.0 1568 1543 45.95% 27.00% 27.05%+0.24 +4.1 7
2017-09-23 @ Lierse L 1-258.0 1543 1568 27.05% 27.00% 45.95%-0.24 -4.1 8
2017-09-24 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-166.0 1536 1597 33.77% 27.87% 38.37%-0.08 +0.1 10
2017-09-24 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-166.0 1597 1536 38.37% 27.87% 33.77%+0.08 -0.1 15
2017-09-24 Roeselare W 4-047.1 1535 1527 43.59% 27.39% 29.02%+0.17 +16.6 7
2017-09-24 @ Westerlo L 0-447.1 1527 1535 29.02% 27.39% 43.59%-0.17 -16.6 10
2017-09-29 Cercle Brugge L 1-261.6 1539 1505 47.15% 26.76% 26.09%+0.27 -6.3 8
2017-09-29 @ Union SG W 2-161.6 1505 1539 26.09% 26.76% 47.15%-0.27 +6.3 15
2017-09-30 Roeselare W 2-047.0 1536 1510 46.06% 26.98% 26.96%+0.24 +8.2 13
2017-09-30 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-247.0 1510 1536 26.96% 26.98% 46.06%-0.24 -8.2 10
2017-09-30 Westerlo L 1-256.9 1478 1551 32.09% 27.76% 40.14%-0.12 -4.7 5
2017-09-30 @ Tubize W 2-156.9 1551 1478 40.14% 27.76% 32.09%+0.12 +4.7 10
2017-10-01 Lierse W 4-049.8 1597 1572 45.87% 27.02% 27.11%+0.23 +15.7 18
2017-10-01 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-449.8 1572 1597 27.11% 27.02% 45.87%-0.23 -15.7 7
2017-10-03 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-349.6 1511 1544 37.67% 27.89% 34.44%+0.02 -15.4 15
2017-10-03 @ Cercle Brugge W 3-049.6 1544 1511 34.44% 27.89% 37.67%-0.02 +15.4 16
2017-10-04 Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-150.0 1473 1613 24.48% 26.28% 49.24%-0.37 -4.0 5
2017-10-04 @ Tubize W 1-050.0 1613 1473 49.24% 26.28% 24.48%+0.37 +4.0 21
2017-10-04 Union SG L 0-352.9 1556 1532 45.72% 27.04% 27.24%+0.23 -17.9 10
2017-10-04 @ Westerlo W 3-052.9 1532 1556 27.24% 27.04% 45.72%-0.23 +17.9 11
2017-10-05 Lierse W 2-050.8 1502 1557 34.64% 27.90% 37.46%-0.06 +10.6 13
2017-10-05 @ Roeselare L 0-250.8 1557 1502 37.46% 27.90% 34.64%+0.06 -10.6 7
2017-10-07 Cercle Brugge L 0-356.3 1617 1495 58.33% 23.27% 18.41%+0.58 -21.6 21
2017-10-07 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-056.3 1495 1617 18.41% 23.27% 58.33%-0.58 +21.6 18
2017-10-08 Tubize D 1-162.7 1546 1469 52.80% 25.28% 21.93%+0.42 -1.0 8
2017-10-08 @ Lierse D 1-162.7 1469 1546 21.93% 25.28% 52.80%-0.42 +1.0 6
2017-10-08 Union SG W 1-052.8 1512 1550 37.06% 27.91% 35.03%+0.01 +5.3 16
2017-10-08 @ Roeselare L 0-152.8 1550 1512 35.03% 27.91% 37.06%-0.01 -5.3 11
2017-10-08 Westerlo W 2-157.7 1560 1538 45.43% 27.09% 27.47%+0.22 +4.2 19
2017-10-08 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-257.7 1538 1560 27.47% 27.09% 45.43%-0.22 -4.2 10
2017-10-13 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-256.2 1470 1564 29.52% 27.47% 43.01%-0.20 -4.4 6
2017-10-13 @ Tubize W 2-156.2 1564 1470 43.01% 27.47% 29.52%+0.20 +4.4 22
2017-10-14 Roeselare D 1-162.8 1517 1518 42.33% 27.55% 30.12%+0.14 -0.4 19
2017-10-14 @ Cercle Brugge D 1-162.8 1518 1517 30.12% 27.55% 42.33%-0.14 +0.4 17
2017-10-15 Beerschot Wilrijk D 0-060.8 1534 1595 33.78% 27.87% 38.36%-0.08 +0.1 11
2017-10-15 @ Westerlo D 0-060.8 1595 1534 38.36% 27.87% 33.78%+0.08 -0.1 22
2017-10-16 Lierse W 3-263.5 1545 1545 42.41% 27.54% 30.05%+0.14 +4.3 14
2017-10-16 @ Union SG L 2-363.5 1545 1545 30.05% 27.54% 42.41%-0.14 -4.3 8
2017-10-21 Cercle Brugge W 3-261.4 1541 1517 45.80% 27.03% 27.17%+0.23 +3.9 11
2017-10-21 @ Lierse L 2-361.4 1517 1541 27.17% 27.03% 45.80%-0.23 -3.9 19
2017-10-21 Westerlo D 0-058.2 1518 1534 40.17% 27.76% 32.07%+0.08 -0.3 18
2017-10-21 @ Roeselare D 0-058.2 1534 1518 32.07% 27.76% 40.17%-0.08 +0.3 12
2017-10-22 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-273.4 1595 1569 46.11% 26.97% 26.92%+0.24 -0.4 23
2017-10-22 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-273.4 1569 1595 26.92% 26.97% 46.11%-0.24 +0.4 23
2017-10-23 Tubize L 1-262.0 1549 1466 53.64% 25.00% 21.36%+0.45 -7.0 14
2017-10-23 @ Union SG W 2-162.0 1466 1549 21.36% 25.00% 53.64%-0.45 +7.0 9
2017-10-27 Roeselare W 5-046.6 1595 1518 52.76% 25.29% 21.95%+0.42 +16.0 26
2017-10-27 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-546.6 1518 1595 21.95% 25.29% 52.76%-0.42 -16.0 18
2017-10-28 Lierse L 0-155.1 1535 1545 40.99% 27.69% 31.32%+0.11 -6.0 12
2017-10-28 @ Westerlo W 1-055.1 1545 1535 31.32% 27.69% 40.99%-0.11 +6.0 14
2017-10-28 Union SG W 1-051.7 1569 1542 46.12% 26.97% 26.91%+0.24 +4.3 26
2017-10-28 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-151.7 1542 1569 26.91% 26.97% 46.12%-0.24 -4.3 14
2017-10-29 Cercle Brugge D 1-160.8 1473 1513 36.73% 27.91% 35.35%+0.00 -0.0 10
2017-10-29 @ Tubize D 1-160.8 1513 1473 35.35% 27.91% 36.73%+0.00 +0.0 20
2017-11-05 Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-350.9 1538 1611 32.22% 27.77% 40.01%-0.12 -13.8 14
2017-11-05 @ Union SG W 3-050.9 1611 1538 40.01% 27.77% 32.22%+0.12 +13.8 29
2017-11-05 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-160.4 1551 1573 39.27% 27.82% 32.91%+0.06 +4.8 17
2017-11-05 @ Lierse L 1-260.4 1573 1551 32.91% 27.82% 39.27%-0.06 -4.8 26
2017-11-05 Tubize W 1-046.7 1502 1473 46.50% 26.90% 26.61%+0.25 +4.3 21
2017-11-05 @ Roeselare L 0-146.7 1473 1502 26.61% 26.90% 46.50%-0.25 -4.3 10
2017-11-05 Westerlo W 3-154.8 1513 1529 40.22% 27.76% 32.03%+0.09 +8.2 23
2017-11-05 @ Cercle Brugge L 1-354.8 1529 1513 32.03% 27.76% 40.22%-0.09 -8.2 12
2017-11-11 Lierse L 1-256.1 1468 1556 30.33% 27.58% 42.09%-0.17 -4.5 10
2017-11-11 @ Tubize W 2-156.1 1556 1468 42.09% 27.58% 30.33%+0.17 +4.5 20
2017-11-11 Union SG L 0-154.1 1520 1524 41.91% 27.60% 30.49%+0.13 -6.1 12
2017-11-11 @ Westerlo W 1-054.1 1524 1520 30.49% 27.60% 41.91%-0.13 +6.1 17
2017-11-12 Beerschot Wilrijk W 4-054.3 1521 1624 28.40% 27.28% 44.32%-0.23 +22.8 26
2017-11-12 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-454.3 1624 1521 44.32% 27.28% 28.40%+0.23 -22.8 29
2017-11-12 Roeselare D 1-164.7 1568 1506 50.87% 25.85% 23.28%+0.37 -0.8 27
2017-11-12 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-164.7 1506 1568 23.28% 25.85% 50.87%-0.37 +0.8 22
2017-11-17 Cercle Brugge W 1-051.9 1560 1544 44.73% 27.21% 28.06%+0.20 +4.5 23
2017-11-17 @ Lierse L 0-151.9 1544 1560 28.06% 27.21% 44.73%-0.20 -4.5 26
2017-11-18 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-265.6 1602 1568 47.12% 26.77% 26.11%+0.27 -6.3 29
2017-11-18 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-165.6 1568 1602 26.11% 26.77% 47.12%-0.27 +6.3 30
2017-11-18 Westerlo W 2-156.2 1507 1514 41.43% 27.65% 30.92%+0.12 +4.6 25
2017-11-18 @ Roeselare L 1-256.2 1514 1507 30.92% 27.65% 41.43%-0.12 -4.6 12
2017-11-19 Tubize D 1-161.8 1530 1464 51.44% 25.69% 22.87%+0.39 -0.9 18
2017-11-19 @ Union SG D 1-161.8 1464 1530 22.87% 25.69% 51.44%-0.39 +0.9 11
2017-11-24 Cercle Brugge D 1-161.6 1465 1539 31.97% 27.75% 40.28%-0.13 +0.2 12
2017-11-24 @ Tubize D 1-161.6 1539 1465 40.28% 27.75% 31.97%+0.13 -0.2 27
2017-11-25 Lierse L 1-259.5 1512 1565 34.90% 27.91% 37.20%-0.05 -5.0 25
2017-11-25 @ Roeselare W 2-159.5 1565 1512 37.20% 27.91% 34.90%+0.05 +5.0 26
2017-11-25 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 0-059.9 1529 1574 36.11% 27.92% 35.97%-0.02 +0.0 19
2017-11-25 @ Union SG D 0-059.9 1574 1529 35.97% 27.92% 36.11%+0.02 +0.0 31
2017-11-26 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-165.2 1510 1595 30.56% 27.61% 41.83%-0.17 +0.3 13
2017-11-26 @ Westerlo D 1-165.2 1595 1510 41.83% 27.61% 30.56%+0.17 -0.3 30
2017-12-01 Roeselare W 1-049.0 1595 1507 54.23% 24.80% 20.96%+0.46 +3.5 33
2017-12-01 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-149.0 1507 1595 20.96% 24.80% 54.23%-0.46 -3.5 25
2017-12-02 Union SG D 2-270.3 1539 1529 43.77% 27.36% 28.87%+0.18 -0.3 28
2017-12-02 @ Cercle Brugge D 2-270.3 1529 1539 28.87% 27.36% 43.77%-0.18 +0.3 20
2017-12-02 Westerlo W 2-046.8 1570 1510 50.54% 25.94% 23.52%+0.36 +7.3 29
2017-12-02 @ Lierse L 0-246.8 1510 1570 23.52% 25.94% 50.54%-0.36 -7.3 13
2017-12-03 Tubize D 1-164.0 1574 1465 56.82% 23.86% 19.31%+0.54 -1.2 32
2017-12-03 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-164.0 1465 1574 19.31% 23.86% 56.82%-0.54 +1.2 13
2017-12-08 Cercle Brugge L 0-349.0 1503 1539 37.41% 27.90% 34.69%+0.01 -15.4 25
2017-12-08 @ Roeselare W 3-049.0 1539 1503 34.69% 27.90% 37.41%-0.01 +15.3 31
2017-12-09 Lierse W 1-054.7 1530 1577 35.71% 27.92% 36.37%-0.03 +5.5 23
2017-12-09 @ Union SG L 0-154.7 1577 1530 36.37% 27.92% 35.71%+0.03 -5.5 29
2017-12-09 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-054.6 1503 1573 32.58% 27.80% 39.62%-0.11 +5.8 16
2017-12-09 @ Westerlo L 0-154.6 1573 1503 39.62% 27.80% 32.58%+0.11 -5.8 32
2017-12-15 Lierse W 2-160.1 1567 1572 41.79% 27.61% 30.60%+0.13 +4.5 35
2017-12-15 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-260.1 1572 1567 30.60% 27.61% 41.79%-0.13 -4.5 29
2017-12-16 Cercle Brugge L 2-364.5 1509 1554 35.98% 27.92% 36.10%-0.02 -4.9 16
2017-12-16 @ Westerlo W 3-264.5 1554 1509 36.10% 27.92% 35.98%+0.02 +4.9 34
2017-12-16 Union SG W 2-157.2 1598 1535 51.00% 25.81% 23.18%+0.37 +3.6 36
2017-12-16 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-257.2 1535 1598 23.18% 25.81% 51.00%-0.37 -3.6 23
2017-12-17 Tubize L 1-257.9 1488 1466 45.47% 27.09% 27.45%+0.22 -6.1 25
2017-12-17 @ Roeselare W 2-157.9 1466 1488 27.45% 27.09% 45.47%-0.22 +6.1 16
2018-01-05 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-053.9 1559 1571 40.67% 27.72% 31.61%+0.10 +4.9 37
2018-01-05 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-153.9 1571 1559 31.61% 27.72% 40.67%-0.10 -4.9 35
2018-01-06 Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-162.2 1567 1602 37.46% 27.90% 34.64%+0.02 +5.0 32
2018-01-06 @ Lierse L 1-262.2 1602 1567 34.64% 27.90% 37.46%-0.02 -5.0 36
2018-01-07 Roeselare L 1-261.0 1532 1482 49.25% 26.28% 24.47%+0.32 -6.5 23
2018-01-07 @ Union SG W 2-161.0 1482 1532 24.47% 26.28% 49.25%-0.32 +6.5 28
2018-01-07 Westerlo W 2-155.6 1472 1504 37.96% 27.88% 34.16%+0.03 +5.0 19
2018-01-07 @ Tubize L 1-255.6 1504 1472 34.16% 27.88% 37.96%-0.03 -4.9 16
2018-01-10 Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-256.6 1477 1597 26.54% 26.88% 46.58%-0.29 -4.0 19
2018-01-10 @ Tubize W 2-156.6 1597 1477 46.58% 26.88% 26.54%+0.29 +4.0 39
2018-01-12 Roeselare D 0-055.9 1499 1488 43.91% 27.34% 28.75%+0.18 -0.5 17
2018-01-12 @ Westerlo D 0-055.9 1488 1499 28.75% 27.34% 43.91%-0.18 +0.5 29
2018-01-13 Cercle Brugge L 2-370.8 1601 1564 47.56% 26.67% 25.76%+0.28 -6.0 39
2018-01-13 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-270.8 1564 1601 25.76% 26.67% 47.56%-0.28 +6.0 40
2018-01-14 Tubize W 2-152.8 1572 1473 55.56% 24.33% 20.10%+0.50 +3.1 35
2018-01-14 @ Lierse L 1-252.8 1473 1572 20.10% 24.33% 55.56%-0.50 -3.1 19
2018-01-14 Union SG W 3-154.2 1567 1525 48.11% 26.55% 25.33%+0.29 +6.7 38
2018-01-14 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-354.2 1525 1567 25.33% 26.55% 48.11%-0.29 -6.7 23
2018-01-19 Lierse W 4-155.5 1570 1575 41.70% 27.62% 30.68%+0.12 +11.2 43
2018-01-19 @ Cercle Brugge L 1-455.5 1575 1570 30.68% 27.62% 41.70%-0.12 -11.2 35
2018-01-20 Beerschot Wilrijk D 0-059.5 1489 1595 28.07% 27.22% 44.72%-0.24 +0.5 30
2018-01-20 @ Roeselare D 0-059.5 1595 1489 44.72% 27.22% 28.07%+0.24 -0.5 40
2018-01-20 Westerlo D 1-162.2 1518 1498 45.23% 27.13% 27.64%+0.22 -0.5 24
2018-01-20 @ Union SG D 1-162.2 1498 1518 27.64% 27.13% 45.23%-0.22 +0.5 18
2018-01-21 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-149.9 1470 1573 28.41% 27.28% 44.31%-0.23 -4.6 19
2018-01-21 @ Tubize W 1-049.9 1573 1470 44.31% 27.28% 28.41%+0.23 +4.5 41
2018-01-26 Westerlo L 0-157.9 1578 1499 53.04% 25.20% 21.76%+0.43 -7.3 41
2018-01-26 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-057.9 1499 1578 21.76% 25.20% 53.04%-0.43 +7.3 21
2018-01-27 Roeselare W 1-047.8 1581 1489 54.66% 24.66% 20.68%+0.48 +3.4 46
2018-01-27 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-147.8 1489 1581 20.68% 24.66% 54.66%-0.48 -3.4 30
2018-01-27 Tubize W 1-046.0 1595 1465 59.26% 22.88% 17.86%+0.61 +2.9 43
2018-01-27 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-146.0 1465 1595 17.86% 22.88% 59.26%-0.61 -2.9 19
2018-01-28 Union SG W 1-050.0 1564 1518 48.74% 26.40% 24.86%+0.31 +4.1 38
2018-01-28 @ Lierse L 0-150.0 1518 1564 24.86% 26.40% 48.74%-0.31 -4.1 24
2018-02-02 Cercle Brugge D 2-272.9 1570 1584 40.47% 27.74% 31.79%+0.09 -0.2 42
2018-02-02 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-272.9 1584 1570 31.79% 27.74% 40.47%-0.09 +0.2 47
2018-02-03 Lierse W 6-051.6 1506 1568 33.67% 27.86% 38.46%-0.08 +30.0 24
2018-02-03 @ Westerlo L 0-651.6 1568 1506 38.46% 27.86% 33.67%+0.08 -30.0 38
2018-02-03 Roeselare D 0-054.3 1462 1486 39.12% 27.83% 33.05%+0.06 -0.2 20
2018-02-03 @ Tubize D 0-054.3 1486 1462 33.05% 27.83% 39.12%-0.06 +0.2 31
2018-02-04 Beerschot Wilrijk W 1-056.3 1514 1597 30.81% 27.64% 41.56%-0.16 +6.1 27
2018-02-04 @ Union SG L 0-156.3 1597 1514 41.56% 27.64% 30.81%+0.16 -6.1 43
2018-02-09 Westerlo D 0-061.2 1591 1536 49.97% 26.10% 23.94%+0.34 -0.9 44
2018-02-09 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 0-061.2 1536 1591 23.94% 26.10% 49.97%-0.34 +0.9 25
2018-02-10 Tubize D 0-059.4 1585 1462 58.45% 23.22% 18.34%+0.59 -1.4 48
2018-02-10 @ Cercle Brugge D 0-059.4 1462 1585 18.34% 23.22% 58.45%-0.59 +1.4 21
2018-02-10 Union SG L 1-452.9 1486 1520 37.65% 27.89% 34.46%+0.02 -13.0 31
2018-02-10 @ Roeselare W 4-152.9 1520 1486 34.46% 27.89% 37.65%-0.02 +13.0 30
2018-02-11 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-155.2 1538 1570 37.87% 27.89% 34.25%+0.03 -5.7 38
2018-02-11 @ Lierse W 1-055.2 1570 1538 34.25% 27.89% 37.87%-0.03 +5.7 45
2018-02-16 Roeselare L 1-261.0 1532 1473 50.49% 25.96% 23.55%+0.36 -6.6 38
2018-02-16 @ Lierse W 2-161.0 1473 1532 23.55% 25.96% 50.49%-0.36 +6.6 34
2018-02-17 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-167.0 1576 1591 40.39% 27.74% 31.87%+0.09 -0.2 46
2018-02-17 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-167.0 1591 1576 31.87% 27.74% 40.39%-0.09 +0.2 45
2018-02-17 Cercle Brugge D 1-165.5 1533 1583 35.28% 27.91% 36.81%-0.04 +0.0 31
2018-02-17 @ Union SG D 1-165.5 1583 1533 36.81% 27.91% 35.28%+0.04 -0.0 49
2018-02-18 Tubize D 0-057.0 1537 1464 52.32% 25.42% 22.26%+0.41 -1.0 26
2018-02-18 @ Westerlo D 0-057.0 1464 1537 22.26% 25.42% 52.32%-0.41 +1.0 22
2018-02-25 Lierse D 1-166.1 1591 1526 51.24% 25.74% 23.01%+0.38 -0.9 46
2018-02-25 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-166.1 1526 1591 23.01% 25.74% 51.24%-0.38 +0.9 39
2018-02-25 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-163.6 1480 1576 29.29% 27.43% 43.28%-0.21 +0.4 35
2018-02-25 @ Roeselare D 1-163.6 1576 1480 43.28% 27.43% 29.29%+0.21 -0.4 47
2018-02-25 Union SG D 1-161.3 1465 1533 32.81% 27.82% 39.38%-0.10 +0.2 23
2018-02-25 @ Tubize D 1-161.3 1533 1465 39.38% 27.82% 32.81%+0.10 -0.2 32
2018-02-25 Westerlo D 1-166.0 1583 1536 48.89% 26.37% 24.74%+0.31 -0.7 50
2018-02-25 @ Cercle Brugge D 1-166.0 1536 1583 24.74% 26.37% 48.89%-0.31 +0.7 27

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2018-03-23 Union SG W 1-051.3 1537 1533 42.99% 27.47% 29.54%+0.16 +4.7 3
2018-03-23 @ Westerlo L 0-151.3 1533 1537 29.54% 27.47% 42.99%-0.16 -4.7 0
2018-03-25 Tubize D 0-054.4 1480 1465 44.56% 27.24% 28.20%+0.20 -0.5 1
2018-03-25 @ Roeselare D 0-054.4 1465 1480 28.20% 27.24% 44.56%-0.20 +0.5 1
2018-03-30 Westerlo L 0-247.2 1465 1541 31.79% 27.74% 40.47%-0.13 -9.4 1
2018-03-30 @ Tubize W 2-047.2 1541 1465 40.47% 27.74% 31.79%+0.13 +9.4 6
2018-03-31 Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-2 1636 1586 49.17% 26.30% 24.53%+0.32 -0.6 1
2018-03-31 @ Eupen D 2-2 1586 1636 24.53% 26.30% 49.17%-0.32 +0.6 1
2018-03-31 Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-3 1527 1604 31.59% 27.72% 40.70%-0.14 -13.5 0
2018-03-31 @ Lierse W 3-0 1604 1527 40.70% 27.72% 31.59%+0.14 +13.5 3
2018-04-01 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-2 1720 1575 61.11% 22.07% 16.82%+0.67 -1.0 1
2018-04-01 @ Zulte Waregem D 2-2 1575 1720 16.82% 22.07% 61.11%-0.67 +1.0 1
2018-04-02 Roeselare L 0-154.5 1528 1480 49.06% 26.33% 24.61%+0.32 -6.9 0
2018-04-02 @ Union SG W 1-054.5 1480 1528 24.61% 26.33% 49.06%-0.32 +6.9 4
2018-04-06 Tubize D 1-161.2 1521 1456 51.25% 25.74% 23.01%+0.38 -0.9 1
2018-04-06 @ Union SG D 1-161.2 1456 1521 23.01% 25.74% 51.25%-0.38 +0.9 2
2018-04-07 Lierse L 1-2 1576 1513 51.01% 25.81% 23.18%+0.37 -6.7 1
2018-04-07 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-1 1513 1576 23.18% 25.81% 51.01%-0.37 +6.7 3
2018-04-07 Sporting Lokeren D 2-2 1587 1661 32.07% 27.76% 40.17%-0.13 +0.2 2
2018-04-07 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-2 1661 1587 40.17% 27.76% 32.07%+0.13 -0.2 1
2018-04-08 Roeselare D 0-058.3 1551 1486 51.14% 25.77% 23.08%+0.38 -1.0 7
2018-04-08 @ Westerlo D 0-058.3 1486 1551 23.08% 25.77% 51.14%-0.38 +1.0 5
2018-04-13 Union SG L 0-149.2 1457 1520 33.46% 27.85% 38.68%-0.09 -5.2 2
2018-04-13 @ Tubize W 1-049.2 1520 1457 38.68% 27.85% 33.46%+0.09 +5.2 4
2018-04-14 Kortrijk L 0-2 1520 1719 19.33% 23.88% 56.79%-0.58 -6.0 3
2018-04-14 @ Lierse W 2-0 1719 1520 56.79% 23.88% 19.33%+0.58 +6.0 3
2018-04-14 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-2 1663 1570 54.87% 24.58% 20.54%+0.48 -14.2 0
2018-04-14 @ Waasland-Beveren W 2-0 1570 1663 20.54% 24.58% 54.87%-0.48 +14.2 4
2018-04-15 Westerlo D 0-057.6 1487 1550 33.60% 27.86% 38.53%-0.08 +0.1 6
2018-04-15 @ Roeselare D 0-057.6 1550 1487 38.53% 27.86% 33.60%+0.08 -0.1 8
2018-04-15 Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-0 1670 1587 53.53% 25.04% 21.43%+0.44 +6.7 3
2018-04-15 @ Antwerp L 0-2 1587 1670 21.43% 25.04% 53.53%-0.44 -6.7 2
2018-04-17 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-1 1725 1584 60.63% 22.28% 17.08%+0.66 +2.6 6
2018-04-17 @ Kortrijk L 1-2 1584 1725 17.08% 22.28% 60.63%-0.66 -2.6 4
2018-04-17 Zulte Waregem L 1-4 1514 1734 17.79% 22.83% 59.38%-0.66 -6.7 3
2018-04-17 @ Lierse W 4-1 1734 1514 59.38% 22.83% 17.79%+0.66 +6.7 4
2018-04-18 Sint-Truiden L 1-3 1580 1699 26.71% 26.92% 46.36%-0.29 -7.1 2
2018-04-18 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-1 1699 1580 46.36% 26.92% 26.71%+0.29 +7.0 3
2018-04-20 Westerlo L 0-251.9 1525 1550 39.02% 27.84% 33.14%+0.06 -10.9 4
2018-04-20 @ Union SG W 2-051.9 1550 1525 33.14% 27.84% 39.02%-0.06 +10.9 11
2018-04-21 Lierse L 0-1 1649 1507 60.78% 22.22% 17.00%+0.66 -8.1 0
2018-04-21 @ Waasland-Beveren W 1-0 1507 1649 17.00% 22.22% 60.78%-0.66 +8.1 6
2018-04-21 Royal Excel Mouscron W 3-1 1581 1614 37.81% 27.89% 34.30%+0.02 +8.6 7
2018-04-21 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-3 1614 1581 34.30% 27.89% 37.81%-0.02 -8.6 3
2018-04-22 Roeselare L 1-352.6 1452 1488 37.35% 27.90% 34.75%+0.01 -9.2 2
2018-04-22 @ Tubize W 3-152.6 1488 1452 34.75% 27.90% 37.35%-0.01 +9.2 9
2018-04-22 Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-2 1760 1573 65.84% 19.81% 14.35%+0.82 -1.2 1
2018-04-22 @ Oostende D 2-2 1573 1760 14.35% 19.81% 65.84%-0.82 +1.2 3
2018-04-28 Lierse W 2-1 1715 1515 67.29% 19.07% 13.63%+0.87 +2.0 9
2018-04-28 @ Kortrijk L 1-2 1515 1715 13.63% 19.07% 67.29%-0.87 -2.0 6
2018-04-28 Waasland-Beveren D 0-0 1590 1641 35.18% 27.91% 36.91%-0.04 +0.0 8
2018-04-28 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 0-0 1641 1590 36.91% 27.91% 35.18%+0.04 -0.1 1
2018-04-29 Tubize D 1-162.8 1561 1443 57.91% 23.44% 18.66%+0.57 -1.2 12
2018-04-29 @ Westerlo D 1-162.8 1443 1561 18.66% 23.44% 57.91%-0.57 +1.2 3
2018-04-29 Union SG W 1-050.1 1497 1515 39.93% 27.78% 32.30%+0.08 +5.0 12
2018-04-29 @ Roeselare L 0-150.1 1515 1497 32.30% 27.78% 39.93%-0.08 -5.0 4
2018-04-29 Antwerp D 0-0 1575 1676 28.64% 27.32% 44.03%-0.23 +0.5 4
2018-04-29 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 0-0 1676 1575 44.03% 27.32% 28.64%+0.23 -0.5 4
2018-05-05 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-2 1513 1590 31.69% 27.73% 40.58%-0.14 +0.2 7
2018-05-05 @ Lierse D 2-2 1590 1513 40.58% 27.73% 31.69%+0.14 -0.2 9
2018-05-06 Oostende L 0-2 1575 1745 21.65% 25.14% 53.21%-0.48 -6.7 4
2018-05-06 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-0 1745 1575 53.21% 25.14% 21.65%+0.48 +6.7 4
2018-05-08 Kortrijk L 0-2 1590 1712 26.33% 26.83% 46.84%-0.30 -8.1 9
2018-05-08 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-0 1712 1590 46.84% 26.83% 26.33%+0.30 +8.0 12
2018-05-08 Lierse W 1-0 1598 1513 53.75% 24.97% 21.28%+0.45 +3.5 6
2018-05-08 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-1 1513 1598 21.28% 24.97% 53.75%-0.45 -3.5 7
2018-05-09 Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-2 1702 1568 59.81% 22.65% 17.55%+0.63 +2.6 6
2018-05-09 @ Sint-Truiden L 2-3 1568 1702 17.55% 22.65% 59.81%-0.63 -2.6 4
2018-05-11 Waasland-Beveren L 0-5 1510 1623 27.25% 27.05% 45.70%-0.27 -19.4 7
2018-05-11 @ Lierse W 5-0 1623 1510 45.70% 27.05% 27.25%+0.27 +19.4 4
2018-05-11 Zulte Waregem L 1-2 1582 1783 19.13% 23.74% 57.13%-0.59 -3.0 9
2018-05-11 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-1 1783 1582 57.13% 23.74% 19.13%+0.59 +3.0 7
2018-05-12 Beerschot Wilrijk W 4-2 1695 1566 59.22% 22.90% 17.89%+0.61 +4.3 4
2018-05-12 @ Sporting Lokeren L 2-4 1566 1695 17.89% 22.90% 59.22%-0.61 -4.3 4
2018-05-18 Lierse W 5-0 1786 1490 76.82% 13.84% 9.34%+1.22 +5.9 10
2018-05-18 @ Zulte Waregem L 0-5 1490 1786 9.34% 13.84% 76.82%-1.22 -5.9 7
2018-05-18 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 5-0 1603 1579 45.76% 27.04% 27.21%+0.23 +19.4 9
2018-05-18 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-5 1579 1603 27.21% 27.04% 45.76%-0.23 -19.3 9
2018-05-19 Eupen W 3-1 1562 1607 36.01% 27.92% 36.08%-0.02 +8.9 7
2018-05-19 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-3 1607 1562 36.08% 27.92% 36.01%+0.02 -8.9 1

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2018-03-04 Cercle Brugge W 1-054.3 1590 1582 43.48% 27.40% 29.12%+0.17 +4.6 1-0
2018-03-04 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-154.3 1582 1590 29.12% 27.40% 43.48%-0.17 -4.6 0-1
2018-03-10 Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-159.0 1578 1595 40.08% 27.77% 32.16%+0.08 +8.2 1-1
2018-03-10 @ Cercle Brugge L 1-359.0 1595 1578 32.16% 27.77% 40.08%-0.08 -8.2 1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2017-10-07 18.41% Cercle Brugge 1495 3 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1617 0
2 2017-10-23 21.36% Tubize 1466 2 @ Union SG 1549 1
3 2018-01-26 21.76% Westerlo 1499 1 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1578 0
4 2017-08-06 22.66% Cercle Brugge 1487 2 @ Westerlo 1556 1
5 2018-02-16 23.55% Roeselare 1473 2 @ Lierse 1532 1
6 2018-01-07 24.47% Roeselare 1482 2 @ Union SG 1532 1
7 2018-04-02 24.61% Roeselare 1480 1 @ Union SG 1528 0
8 2018-01-13 25.76% Cercle Brugge 1564 3 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1601 2
9 2017-09-29 26.09% Cercle Brugge 1505 2 @ Union SG 1539 1
10 2017-11-18 26.11% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1568 2 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1602 1
11 2017-10-04 27.24% Union SG 1532 3 @ Westerlo 1556 0
12 2017-12-17 27.45% Tubize 1466 2 @ Roeselare 1488 1
13 2017-09-02 27.74% @ Cercle Brugge 1484 2 Lierse 1593 0
14 2017-11-12 28.40% @ Cercle Brugge 1521 4 Beerschot Wilrijk 1624 0
15 2017-09-16 29.21% @ Tubize 1483 2 Lierse 1580 0
16 2017-11-11 30.49% Union SG 1524 1 @ Westerlo 1520 0
17 2018-02-04 30.81% @ Union SG 1514 1 Beerschot Wilrijk 1597 0
18 2017-09-01 31.27% Beerschot Wilrijk 1572 4 @ Roeselare 1562 0
19 2017-10-28 31.32% Lierse 1545 1 @ Westerlo 1535 0
20 2017-12-09 32.58% @ Westerlo 1503 1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1573 0
21 2018-04-20 33.14% Westerlo 1550 2 @ Union SG 1525 0
22 2018-02-03 33.67% @ Westerlo 1506 6 Lierse 1568 0
23 2018-02-11 34.25% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1570 1 @ Lierse 1538 0
24 2017-10-03 34.44% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1544 3 @ Cercle Brugge 1511 0
25 2018-02-10 34.46% Union SG 1520 4 @ Roeselare 1486 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-02-03 29.96 @ Westerlo 6 1506 33.67% Lierse 0 1568 38.46% 27.86%
2 2017-11-12 22.78 @ Cercle Brugge 4 1521 28.40% Beerschot Wilrijk 0 1624 44.32% 27.28%
3 2017-10-07 21.60 Cercle Brugge 3 1495 18.41% @ Beerschot Wilrijk 0 1617 58.33% 23.27%
4 2017-09-01 21.48 Beerschot Wilrijk 4 1572 31.27% @ Roeselare 0 1562 41.05% 27.69%
5 2017-08-19 20.33 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 7 1507 42.89% Cercle Brugge 1 1504 29.63% 27.48%
6 2017-10-04 17.86 Union SG 3 1532 27.24% @ Westerlo 0 1556 45.72% 27.04%
7 2017-09-09 17.84 @ Union SG 4 1526 40.34% Roeselare 0 1540 31.92% 27.75%
8 2017-09-23 17.46 @ Cercle Brugge 4 1487 41.29% Tubize 0 1495 31.05% 27.66%
9 2017-09-24 16.56 @ Westerlo 4 1535 43.59% Roeselare 0 1527 29.02% 27.39%
10 2017-10-27 15.96 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 5 1595 52.76% Roeselare 0 1518 21.95% 25.29%
11 2017-10-01 15.66 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 4 1597 45.87% Lierse 0 1572 27.11% 27.02%
12 2017-10-03 15.43 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1544 34.44% @ Cercle Brugge 0 1511 37.67% 27.89%
13 2017-12-08 15.35 Cercle Brugge 3 1539 34.69% @ Roeselare 0 1503 37.41% 27.90%
14 2017-08-19 14.64 @ Union SG 3 1511 37.06% Westerlo 0 1549 35.03% 27.91%
15 2017-11-05 13.75 Beerschot Wilrijk 3 1611 40.01% @ Union SG 0 1538 32.22% 27.77%
16 2018-02-10 13.01 Union SG 4 1520 34.46% @ Roeselare 1 1486 37.65% 27.89%
17 2017-09-02 12.17 @ Cercle Brugge 2 1484 27.74% Lierse 0 1593 45.11% 27.15%
18 2017-08-04 12.06 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 3 1556 45.64% Union SG 0 1533 27.30% 27.06%
19 2017-09-16 11.81 @ Tubize 2 1483 29.21% Lierse 0 1580 43.37% 27.42%
20 2018-01-19 11.17 @ Cercle Brugge 4 1570 41.70% Lierse 1 1575 30.68% 27.62%
21 2018-04-20 10.91 Westerlo 2 1550 33.14% @ Union SG 0 1525 39.02% 27.84%
22 2017-10-05 10.58 @ Roeselare 2 1502 34.64% Lierse 0 1557 37.46% 27.90%
23 2017-08-11 9.74 @ Cercle Brugge 2 1494 38.71% Union SG 0 1521 33.44% 27.85%
24 2018-03-30 9.37 Westerlo 2 1541 40.47% @ Tubize 0 1465 31.79% 27.74%
25 2018-04-22 9.15 Roeselare 3 1488 34.75% @ Tubize 1 1452 37.35% 27.90%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-10-22 73.4 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 2 1595 46.11% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1569 26.92% 26.97%
2 2017-08-13 73.3 @ Lierse 2 1594 46.02% Beerschot Wilrijk 2 1568 26.99% 26.99%
3 2017-08-18 73.2 @ Lierse 2 1593 46.82% Roeselare 2 1561 26.35% 26.83%
4 2018-02-02 72.9 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1570 40.47% Cercle Brugge 2 1584 31.79% 27.74%
5 2017-09-16 72.8 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 2 1598 51.07% Westerlo 2 1534 23.14% 25.80%
6 2017-09-09 72.1 @ Lierse 2 1581 48.85% Westerlo 2 1534 24.77% 26.38%
7 2017-08-05 71.5 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1514 31.24% Lierse 2 1594 41.07% 27.68%
8 2018-01-13 70.8 Cercle Brugge 3 1564 25.76% @ Beerschot Wilrijk 2 1601 47.56% 26.67%
9 2017-12-02 70.3 @ Cercle Brugge 2 1539 43.77% Union SG 2 1529 28.87% 27.36%
10 2017-09-02 70.0 @ Westerlo 2 1534 43.36% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1527 29.22% 27.42%
11 2018-02-17 67.0 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1576 40.39% Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1591 31.87% 27.74%
12 2018-02-25 66.1 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1591 51.24% Lierse 1 1526 23.01% 25.74%
13 2017-09-24 66.0 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1536 33.77% Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1597 38.37% 27.87%
14 2018-02-25 66.0 @ Cercle Brugge 1 1583 48.89% Westerlo 1 1536 24.74% 26.37%
15 2017-11-18 65.6 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1568 26.11% @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1602 47.12% 26.77%
16 2018-02-17 65.5 @ Union SG 1 1533 35.28% Cercle Brugge 1 1583 36.81% 27.91%
17 2017-11-26 65.2 @ Westerlo 1 1510 30.56% Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1595 41.83% 27.61%
18 2017-11-12 64.7 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1568 50.87% Roeselare 1 1506 23.28% 25.85%
19 2017-12-16 64.5 Cercle Brugge 3 1554 36.10% @ Westerlo 2 1509 35.98% 27.92%
20 2017-12-03 64.0 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1574 56.82% Tubize 1 1465 19.31% 23.86%
21 2017-08-12 63.6 @ Westerlo 1 1549 49.94% Tubize 1 1494 23.96% 26.10%
22 2018-02-25 63.6 @ Roeselare 1 1480 29.29% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1576 43.28% 27.43%
23 2017-10-16 63.5 @ Union SG 3 1545 42.41% Lierse 2 1545 30.05% 27.54%
24 2017-10-14 62.8 @ Cercle Brugge 1 1517 42.33% Roeselare 1 1518 30.12% 27.55%
25 2018-04-29 62.8 @ Westerlo 1 1561 57.91% Tubize 1 1443 18.66% 23.44%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-09-23 44.8 @ Cercle Brugge 4 1487 41.29% Tubize 0 1495 31.05% 27.66%
2 2017-09-08 45.5 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1528 47.44% Tubize 0 1491 25.86% 26.70%
3 2018-01-27 46.0 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1595 59.26% Tubize 0 1465 17.86% 22.88%
4 2017-10-27 46.6 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 5 1595 52.76% Roeselare 0 1518 21.95% 25.29%
5 2017-11-05 46.7 @ Roeselare 1 1502 46.50% Tubize 0 1473 26.61% 26.90%
6 2017-12-02 46.8 @ Lierse 2 1570 50.54% Westerlo 0 1510 23.52% 25.94%
7 2017-09-30 47.0 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1536 46.06% Roeselare 0 1510 26.96% 26.98%
8 2017-09-24 47.1 @ Westerlo 4 1535 43.59% Roeselare 0 1527 29.02% 27.39%
9 2018-03-30 47.2 Westerlo 2 1541 40.47% @ Tubize 0 1465 31.79% 27.74%
10 2017-08-04 47.4 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 3 1556 45.64% Union SG 0 1533 27.30% 27.06%
11 2017-08-19 47.8 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 7 1507 42.89% Cercle Brugge 1 1504 29.63% 27.48%
12 2018-01-27 47.8 @ Cercle Brugge 1 1581 54.66% Roeselare 0 1489 20.68% 24.66%
13 2017-08-11 48.0 @ Cercle Brugge 2 1494 38.71% Union SG 0 1521 33.44% 27.85%
14 2017-09-09 48.2 @ Union SG 4 1526 40.34% Roeselare 0 1540 31.92% 27.75%
15 2017-08-20 48.3 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1568 52.28% Tubize 0 1495 22.29% 25.44%
16 2017-08-19 48.9 @ Union SG 3 1511 37.06% Westerlo 0 1549 35.03% 27.91%
17 2017-12-01 49.0 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1595 54.23% Roeselare 0 1507 20.96% 24.80%
18 2017-12-08 49.0 Cercle Brugge 3 1539 34.69% @ Roeselare 0 1503 37.41% 27.90%
19 2018-04-13 49.2 Union SG 1 1520 38.68% @ Tubize 0 1457 33.46% 27.85%
20 2017-10-03 49.6 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1544 34.44% @ Cercle Brugge 0 1511 37.67% 27.89%
21 2017-10-01 49.8 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 4 1597 45.87% Lierse 0 1572 27.11% 27.02%
22 2018-01-21 49.9 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1573 44.31% @ Tubize 0 1470 28.41% 27.28%
23 2017-10-04 50.0 Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1613 49.24% @ Tubize 0 1473 24.48% 26.28%
24 2018-01-28 50.0 @ Lierse 1 1564 48.74% Union SG 0 1518 24.86% 26.40%
25 2018-04-29 50.1 @ Roeselare 1 1497 39.93% Union SG 0 1515 32.30% 27.78%