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2018-19 First Division B Season

124 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Promoted

Mechelen

via playoff

Relegated

Tubize

via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Beerschot Wilrijk

10.11 points above expected

54 points · 43.89 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

7.33 points below expected

29 points · 36.33 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Mechelen Promoted 28 17 8 3 59 55 25 +30 52.35 +6.65
2 Beerschot Wilrijk 28 15 9 4 54 48 33 +15 43.89 +10.11
3 Union SG 28 13 6 9 45 41 29 +12 40.49 +4.51
4 Westerlo 28 9 7 12 34 28 37 -9 37.69 -3.69
5 Roeselare 28 8 9 11 33 33 41 -8 32.22 +0.78
6 Lommel 28 8 7 13 31 34 46 -12 37.32 -6.32
7 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 28 8 5 15 29 40 48 -8 36.33 -7.33
8 Tubize Relegated 28 6 5 17 23 28 48 -20 29.05 -6.05
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 6 4 1 1 13 11 3 +8 — —
2 Roeselare 6 2 2 2 8 8 7 +1 — —
3 Lommel 6 2 1 3 7 5 5 0 — —
4 Tubize 6 1 2 3 5 3 12 -9 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Beerschot Wilrijk 54 43.89 +10.11
2 Mechelen 59 52.35 +6.65
3 Union SG 45 40.49 +4.51
4 Roeselare 33 32.22 +0.78
5 Westerlo 34 37.69 -3.69

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 29 36.33 -7.33
2 Lommel 31 37.32 -6.32
3 Tubize 23 29.05 -6.05
4 Westerlo 34 37.69 -3.69
5 Roeselare 33 32.22 +0.78

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Mechelen 9 Sep 23 – Nov 17 1 in 324
2 Roeselare 3 Feb 1 – Feb 16 1 in 41
3 Union SG 4 Sep 15 – Oct 7 1 in 39
4 Beerschot Wilrijk 4 Nov 3 – Nov 25 1 in 36
5 Westerlo 3 Sep 1 – Sep 16 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tubize 7 Sep 21 – Nov 3 1 in 132
2 Roeselare 5 Oct 27 – Nov 17 1 in 73
3 Westerlo 4 Sep 23 – Oct 19 1 in 69
4 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4 Sep 15 – Oct 5 1 in 47
5 Lommel 4 Jan 27 – Feb 17 1 in 34

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Beerschot Wilrijk 16 Nov 3 – Mar 3 1 in 560
2 Mechelen 20 Sep 23 – Feb 15 1 in 107
3 Union SG 9 Sep 9 – Nov 4 1 in 35
4 Roeselare 5 Feb 1 – Mar 3 1 in 25
5 Lommel 5 Aug 3 – Sep 8 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 7 Aug 19 – Oct 5 1 in 31
2 Roeselare 9 Oct 6 – Dec 1 1 in 27
3 Lommel 7 Jan 19 – Mar 3 1 in 14
4 Tubize 7 Sep 21 – Nov 3 1 in 8
5 Westerlo 5 Dec 8 – Jan 19 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Mechelen 1674 59 -36 10 10.8 -0.8
Beerschot Wilrijk 1626 54 +28 11 8.8 +2.2
Union SG 1608 45 +44 9 7.5 +1.5
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1551 42 +29 10 8.4 +1.6
Roeselare 1490 41 +2 7 7.2 -0.2
Lommel 1467 38 +12 7 6.5 +0.5
Westerlo 1493 34 -24 5 6.6 -1.6
Tubize 1387 28 -44 4 5.5 -1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BW LOM MEC OL ROE TUB US WES
Beerschot Wilrijk —
3-0-1
6.37
1-2-1
4.24
2-2-0
6.34
2-1-1
6.84
3-1-0
6.99
2-1-1
5.67
2-2-0
5.97
Lommel
1-0-3
4.67
 —
1-1-2
3.95
1-1-2
5.80
1-1-2
6.05
2-2-0
6.57
1-1-2
5.10
1-1-2
5.49
Mechelen
1-2-1
6.81
2-1-1
7.12
 —
3-1-0
7.59
1-3-0
7.90
4-0-0
8.36
2-1-1
7.25
4-0-0
7.32
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
0-2-2
4.70
2-1-1
5.22
0-1-3
3.53
 —
1-0-3
6.02
2-0-2
6.34
1-0-3
4.96
2-1-1
5.16
Roeselare
1-1-2
4.21
2-1-1
4.98
0-3-1
3.23
3-0-1
5.01
 —
1-1-2
5.89
1-2-1
4.55
0-1-3
5.07
Tubize
0-1-3
4.06
0-2-2
4.47
0-0-4
2.80
2-0-2
4.68
2-1-1
5.13
 —
1-0-3
3.86
1-1-2
4.40
Union SG
1-1-2
5.36
2-1-1
5.93
1-1-2
3.83
3-0-1
6.07
1-2-1
6.48
3-0-1
7.23
 —
2-1-1
5.99
Westerlo
0-2-2
5.07
2-1-1
5.53
0-0-4
3.76
1-1-2
5.86
3-1-0
5.96
2-1-1
6.63
1-1-2
5.05
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +11.9
Allowed 0.84 -13.2
Differential 0.96 +7.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.65%7.66%6.05%5.24%0.81%0.40%25.81%
17.66%12.10%7.66%6.05%0.81%—34.27%
26.05%7.66%6.45%2.02%0.40%0.40%22.98%
35.24%6.05%2.02%0.81%——14.11%
40.81%0.81%0.40%———2.02%
5+0.40%—0.40%———0.81%
Total25.81%34.27%22.98%14.11%2.02%0.81%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.35 1.35 +0.00
SD 1.12 1.12 1.73
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 124

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%—3.57%3.57%——10.71%
110.71%21.43%3.57%3.57%——39.29%
23.57%17.86%3.57%———25.00%
33.57%10.71%3.57%3.57%——21.43%
4———————
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total21.43%50.00%17.86%10.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.18 +0.54
SD 1.15 0.90 1.40
CV 0.67 0.77 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.94%14.71%8.82%5.88%——32.35%
18.82%11.76%2.94%2.94%2.94%—29.41%
22.94%8.82%8.82%5.88%2.94%—29.41%
32.94%5.88%————8.82%
4———————
5+———————
Total17.65%41.18%20.59%14.71%5.88%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.50 -0.35
SD 0.99 1.13 1.54
CV 0.86 0.76 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%———3.57%14.29%
13.57%10.71%3.57%———17.86%
23.57%10.71%10.71%———25.00%
328.57%10.71%3.57%———42.86%
4———————
5+———————
Total42.86%35.71%17.86%——3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.96 0.89 +1.07
SD 1.10 1.10 1.80
CV 0.56 1.23 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.94%5.88%5.88%2.94%——17.65%
15.88%8.82%11.76%17.65%——44.12%
22.94%2.94%5.88%2.94%——14.71%
38.82%5.88%2.94%———17.65%
42.94%2.94%————5.88%
5+———————
Total23.53%26.47%26.47%23.53%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.11 1.87
CV 0.77 0.74 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%8.82%5.88%5.88%2.94%—29.41%
18.82%14.71%8.82%2.94%——35.29%
22.94%8.82%11.76%2.94%——26.47%
3—2.94%————2.94%
42.94%—2.94%———5.88%
5+———————
Total20.59%35.29%29.41%11.76%2.94%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.41 -0.21
SD 1.09 1.05 1.61
CV 0.91 0.74 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%14.71%5.88%11.76%2.94%—44.12%
15.88%5.88%5.88%8.82%2.94%—29.41%
28.82%—2.94%2.94%—2.94%17.65%
3—2.94%2.94%2.94%——8.82%
4———————
5+———————
Total23.53%23.53%17.65%26.47%5.88%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.76 -0.85
SD 1.00 1.39 1.67
CV 1.09 0.79 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%7.14%———17.86%
17.14%14.29%14.29%3.57%——39.29%
217.86%7.14%3.57%———28.57%
3—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
4———————
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total32.14%35.71%28.57%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.04 +0.43
SD 1.14 0.88 1.62
CV 0.78 0.85 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%10.71%10.71%——35.71%
110.71%10.71%10.71%7.14%——39.29%
27.14%7.14%3.57%———17.86%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total28.57%28.57%25.00%17.86%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.32 -0.32
SD 1.02 1.09 1.66
CV 1.02 0.83 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Union SG 1682 45 40.49 +4.51 75.0% 25 30 36 40 45 53 55
Mechelen 1679 59 52.35 +6.65 86.0% 32 41 48 53 57 63 69
Beerschot Wilrijk 1579 54 43.89 +10.11 92.0% 20 31 39 45 50 56 59
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1551 29 36.33 -7.33 18.0% 16 24 32 36 40 49 55
Westerlo 1546 34 37.69 -3.69 28.0% 23 26 33 38 43 47 52
Roeselare 1490 33 32.22 +0.78 60.0% 17 21 28 31 37 44 50
Lommel 1467 31 37.32 -6.32 17.0% 20 24 34 37 42 47 49
Tubize 1387 23 29.05 -6.05 19.0% 14 17 25 29 33 42 47

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.26%
No Edge
41.13%25.00%33.87%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 25.26 Elo pts.
169 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.15 goals
Neutral
-2+0.15+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
70%
Mechelen, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Comfortable
00.250.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.53 * Some Luck: 5.53 to 8.29 * Lucky: 8.29 to 11.06 * Wild Swing: 11.06 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.09 * Close: 1.09 to 1.63 * Off: 1.63 to 2.18 * Way Off: 2.18 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1 * A Surprise: 1 to 1.6 * Several Surprises: 1.6 to 2.2 * Many Surprises: 2.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.24 points
Some Luck
06.9117
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Pinpoint
01.363
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
92.00%
Beerschot Wilrijk
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
17.00%
Lommel
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 1.0
1 of 1
A Surprise
01

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Top-Heavy
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 86.69
1.83
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Even
50%82%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Some Drama
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Occasional
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.78
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.71
Near-Lock
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.33
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.57
Very Underconfident
0.2539561.001.74604
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.145
Well Within Noise
00.1460.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Mechelen 2
Beerschot Wilrijk 1

Leg 1: Mechelen 2-1 Beerschot Wilrijk

Leg 2: Beerschot Wilrijk 0-0 Mechelen

Sim: 16.0%

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Mechelen70.00%16.00%9.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%—
Beerschot Wilrijk13.00%36.00%17.00%11.00%12.00%6.00%3.00%2.00%
Union SG9.00%15.00%20.00%21.00%13.00%11.00%8.00%3.00%
Westerlo1.00%14.00%15.00%18.00%18.00%14.00%9.00%11.00%
Roeselare1.00%3.00%6.00%11.00%14.00%16.00%27.00%22.00%
Lommel2.00%10.00%15.00%19.00%17.00%19.00%10.00%8.00%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven4.00%6.00%13.00%15.00%18.00%17.00%19.00%8.00%
Tubize——5.00%4.00%6.00%16.00%23.00%46.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Lost promotion playoff Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Beerschot Wilrijk — 100% — —
Lommel 46.00% 12.00% 34.00% 8.00%
Mechelen — 100% — —
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 54.00% 10.00% 28.00% 8.00%
Roeselare 57.00% 4.00% 17.00% 22.00%
Tubize 45.00% — 9.00% 46.00%
Union SG 32.00% 24.00% 41.00% 3.00%
Westerlo 41.00% 15.00% 33.00% 11.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Beerschot WilrijkLommelMechelenOud-Heverlee LeuvenRoeselareTubizeUnion SGWesterlo
Beerschot Wilrijk100.0%1.00%46.7%30.00%33.3%3.00%20.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%
Lommel0.0%1.00%10.0%10.00%
Mechelen53.3%30.00%90.0%10.00%87.5%8.00%100.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%82.6%23.00%66.7%12.00%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven66.7%3.00%12.5%8.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Roeselare0.0%4.00%
Tubize0.0%1.00%
Union SG80.0%5.00%17.4%23.00%100.0%1.00%
Westerlo0.0%1.00%33.3%12.00%0.0%1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Mechelen 58.23%
Beerschot Wilrijk 41.77%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Beerschot WilrijkMechelen
Beerschot Wilrijk41.8%100.00%
Mechelen58.2%100.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for relegation playoff
Lommel 100% —
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 100% —
Roeselare 100% —
Tubize — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2018-08-03 Union SG W 1-049.6 1541 1519 48.15% 24.25% 27.60%+0.28 +6.2 3
2018-08-03 @ Lommel L 0-149.6 1519 1541 27.60% 24.25% 48.15%-0.28 -6.2 0
2018-08-04 Mechelen D 1-168.1 1546 1594 38.49% 24.78% 36.73%-0.13 -0.1 1
2018-08-04 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-168.1 1594 1546 36.73% 24.78% 38.49%+0.13 +0.1 1
2018-08-04 Roeselare W 2-155.6 1546 1515 49.27% 24.12% 26.61%+0.33 +5.6 3
2018-08-04 @ Westerlo L 1-255.6 1515 1546 26.61% 24.12% 49.27%-0.33 -5.6 0
2018-08-05 Beerschot Wilrijk D 3-375.3 1483 1552 35.59% 24.76% 39.65%-0.26 +0.1 1
2018-08-05 @ Tubize D 3-375.3 1552 1483 39.65% 24.76% 35.59%+0.26 -0.1 1
2018-08-10 Westerlo D 1-167.1 1552 1551 45.22% 24.51% 30.27%+0.15 -0.6 2
2018-08-10 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-167.1 1551 1552 30.27% 24.51% 45.22%-0.15 +0.6 4
2018-08-11 Mechelen D 2-273.7 1509 1594 33.35% 24.69% 41.96%-0.35 +0.3 1
2018-08-11 @ Roeselare D 2-273.7 1594 1509 41.96% 24.69% 33.35%+0.35 -0.3 2
2018-08-11 Tubize D 2-271.5 1547 1483 53.34% 23.54% 23.12%+0.53 -1.0 4
2018-08-11 @ Lommel D 2-271.5 1483 1547 23.12% 23.54% 53.34%-0.53 +1.0 2
2018-08-12 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-259.9 1513 1546 40.63% 24.74% 34.63%-0.05 -7.9 0
2018-08-12 @ Union SG W 2-159.9 1546 1513 34.63% 24.74% 40.63%+0.05 +7.9 4
2018-08-17 Lommel L 1-265.5 1594 1546 51.28% 23.86% 24.86%+0.43 -9.5 2
2018-08-17 @ Mechelen W 2-165.5 1546 1594 24.86% 23.86% 51.28%-0.43 +9.5 7
2018-08-18 Roeselare D 0-058.2 1484 1509 41.77% 24.70% 33.53%+0.00 -0.4 3
2018-08-18 @ Tubize D 0-058.2 1509 1484 33.53% 24.70% 41.77%+0.00 +0.4 2
2018-08-18 Union SG L 1-359.0 1552 1505 51.30% 23.86% 24.84%+0.43 -16.5 4
2018-08-18 @ Westerlo W 3-159.0 1505 1552 24.84% 23.86% 51.30%-0.43 +16.5 3
2018-08-19 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-167.2 1554 1551 45.52% 24.49% 29.99%+0.16 -0.7 5
2018-08-19 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-167.2 1551 1554 29.99% 24.49% 45.52%-0.16 +0.7 3
2018-08-31 Union SG W 1-049.7 1552 1521 49.17% 24.13% 26.69%+0.33 +6.0 6
2018-08-31 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-149.7 1521 1552 26.69% 24.13% 49.17%-0.33 -6.0 3
2018-09-01 Lommel D 2-272.4 1510 1556 38.73% 24.77% 36.49%-0.12 -0.1 3
2018-09-01 @ Roeselare D 2-272.4 1556 1510 36.49% 24.77% 38.73%+0.12 +0.1 8
2018-09-01 Westerlo L 1-359.1 1553 1536 47.49% 24.32% 28.19%+0.25 -15.5 5
2018-09-01 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-159.1 1536 1553 28.19% 24.32% 47.49%-0.25 +15.5 7
2018-09-02 Tubize W 1-047.1 1584 1484 57.50% 22.72% 19.78%+0.74 +4.6 5
2018-09-02 @ Mechelen L 0-147.1 1484 1584 19.78% 22.72% 57.50%-0.74 -4.6 3
2018-09-08 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-166.9 1556 1537 47.66% 24.30% 28.04%+0.26 -0.8 9
2018-09-08 @ Lommel D 1-166.9 1537 1556 28.04% 24.30% 47.66%-0.26 +0.8 6
2018-09-08 Tubize W 2-153.0 1551 1479 54.24% 23.38% 22.38%+0.57 +4.8 10
2018-09-08 @ Westerlo L 1-253.0 1479 1551 22.38% 23.38% 54.24%-0.57 -4.9 3
2018-09-09 Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-159.0 1510 1558 38.48% 24.78% 36.74%-0.14 +7.3 6
2018-09-09 @ Roeselare L 1-259.0 1558 1510 36.74% 24.78% 38.48%+0.14 -7.3 6
2018-09-09 Mechelen D 2-273.7 1515 1589 34.91% 24.75% 40.34%-0.29 +0.2 4
2018-09-09 @ Union SG D 2-273.7 1589 1515 40.34% 24.75% 34.91%+0.29 -0.2 6
2018-09-14 Mechelen W 1-054.6 1550 1588 39.91% 24.76% 35.34%-0.08 +7.5 9
2018-09-14 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-154.6 1588 1550 35.34% 24.76% 39.91%+0.08 -7.5 6
2018-09-15 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-154.0 1475 1538 36.26% 24.77% 38.97%-0.23 +13.2 6
2018-09-15 @ Tubize L 1-354.0 1538 1475 38.97% 24.77% 36.26%+0.23 -13.2 6
2018-09-15 Roeselare W 2-045.5 1515 1517 44.99% 24.53% 30.48%+0.14 +12.6 7
2018-09-15 @ Union SG L 0-245.5 1517 1515 30.48% 24.53% 44.99%-0.14 -12.6 6
2018-09-16 Lommel W 4-151.9 1556 1555 45.26% 24.51% 30.23%+0.15 +15.4 13
2018-09-16 @ Westerlo L 1-451.9 1555 1556 30.23% 24.51% 45.26%-0.15 -15.3 9
2018-09-21 Union SG L 0-247.7 1488 1528 39.60% 24.76% 35.64%-0.09 -15.4 6
2018-09-21 @ Tubize W 2-047.7 1528 1488 35.64% 24.76% 39.60%+0.09 +15.4 10
2018-09-22 Lommel L 1-359.5 1558 1540 47.58% 24.31% 28.12%+0.26 -15.5 9
2018-09-22 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-159.5 1540 1558 28.12% 24.31% 47.58%-0.26 +15.5 12
2018-09-22 Roeselare L 0-250.5 1525 1504 47.93% 24.27% 27.80%+0.27 -18.0 6
2018-09-22 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-050.5 1504 1525 27.80% 24.27% 47.93%-0.27 +18.0 9
2018-09-23 Westerlo W 2-049.0 1581 1571 46.49% 24.41% 29.10%+0.21 +12.1 9
2018-09-23 @ Mechelen L 0-249.0 1571 1581 29.10% 24.41% 46.49%-0.21 -12.2 13
2018-09-28 Tubize W 2-152.4 1522 1472 51.63% 23.81% 24.56%+0.45 +5.3 12
2018-09-28 @ Roeselare L 1-252.4 1472 1522 24.56% 23.81% 51.63%-0.45 -5.3 6
2018-09-29 Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-263.3 1559 1542 47.39% 24.32% 28.28%+0.25 -8.9 13
2018-09-29 @ Westerlo W 2-163.3 1542 1559 28.28% 24.32% 47.39%-0.25 +8.9 12
2018-09-29 Mechelen L 0-350.4 1555 1593 39.96% 24.75% 35.29%-0.07 -22.6 12
2018-09-29 @ Lommel W 3-050.4 1593 1555 35.29% 24.75% 39.96%+0.07 +22.6 12
2018-09-30 Union SG L 1-355.7 1507 1544 40.13% 24.75% 35.12%-0.07 -13.5 6
2018-09-30 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-155.7 1544 1507 35.12% 24.75% 40.13%+0.07 +13.5 13
2018-10-05 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-041.8 1616 1494 59.91% 22.13% 17.96%+0.87 +11.5 15
2018-10-05 @ Mechelen L 0-341.8 1494 1616 17.96% 22.13% 59.91%-0.87 -11.5 6
2018-10-06 Roeselare W 3-152.8 1533 1528 45.88% 24.46% 29.66%+0.18 +10.7 15
2018-10-06 @ Lommel L 1-352.8 1528 1533 29.66% 24.46% 45.88%-0.18 -10.7 12
2018-10-06 Tubize W 1-045.8 1551 1467 55.72% 23.10% 21.18%+0.65 +4.9 15
2018-10-06 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-145.8 1467 1551 21.18% 23.10% 55.72%-0.65 -4.9 6
2018-10-07 Westerlo W 2-047.7 1557 1550 46.11% 24.44% 29.45%+0.19 +12.3 16
2018-10-07 @ Union SG L 0-247.7 1550 1557 29.45% 24.44% 46.11%-0.19 -12.3 13
2018-10-19 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-155.4 1538 1482 52.35% 23.70% 23.95%+0.48 -10.3 13
2018-10-19 @ Westerlo W 1-055.4 1482 1538 23.95% 23.70% 52.35%-0.48 +10.3 9
2018-10-20 Lommel L 0-245.5 1462 1543 33.83% 24.71% 41.46%-0.33 -13.7 6
2018-10-20 @ Tubize W 2-045.5 1543 1462 41.46% 24.71% 33.83%+0.33 +13.7 18
2018-10-20 Union SG D 1-166.5 1517 1569 37.86% 24.78% 37.37%-0.16 -0.0 13
2018-10-20 @ Roeselare D 1-166.5 1569 1517 37.37% 24.78% 37.86%+0.16 +0.0 17
2018-10-21 Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-045.6 1627 1556 54.17% 23.40% 22.43%+0.57 +14.1 18
2018-10-21 @ Mechelen L 0-345.6 1556 1627 22.43% 23.40% 54.17%-0.57 -14.1 15
2018-10-26 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-150.2 1542 1492 51.61% 23.81% 24.58%+0.45 +9.1 18
2018-10-26 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-350.2 1492 1542 24.58% 23.81% 51.61%-0.45 -9.1 9
2018-10-27 Roeselare W 3-043.2 1641 1517 60.15% 22.07% 17.78%+0.89 +11.4 21
2018-10-27 @ Mechelen L 0-343.2 1517 1641 17.78% 22.07% 60.15%-0.89 -11.4 13
2018-10-27 Tubize W 3-256.5 1569 1449 59.77% 22.17% 18.07%+0.87 +3.8 20
2018-10-27 @ Union SG L 2-356.5 1449 1569 18.07% 22.17% 59.77%-0.87 -3.8 6
2018-10-28 Westerlo L 0-156.8 1557 1528 49.08% 24.15% 26.78%+0.33 -9.7 18
2018-10-28 @ Lommel W 1-056.8 1528 1557 26.78% 24.15% 49.08%-0.33 +9.7 16
2018-10-30 Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-047.7 1573 1551 48.08% 24.26% 27.66%+0.28 +11.7 23
2018-10-30 @ Union SG L 0-247.7 1551 1573 27.66% 24.26% 48.08%-0.28 -11.7 18
2018-10-30 Mechelen L 0-342.2 1445 1653 19.81% 22.73% 57.45%-1.08 -12.6 6
2018-10-30 @ Tubize W 3-042.2 1653 1445 57.45% 22.73% 19.81%+1.08 +12.6 24
2018-10-31 Westerlo L 0-153.1 1505 1537 40.79% 24.73% 34.47%-0.04 -8.4 13
2018-10-31 @ Roeselare W 1-053.1 1537 1505 34.47% 24.73% 40.79%+0.04 +8.4 19
2018-11-03 Roeselare W 2-154.3 1540 1497 50.71% 23.94% 25.35%+0.40 +5.4 21
2018-11-03 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-254.3 1497 1540 25.35% 23.94% 50.71%-0.40 -5.4 13
2018-11-03 Tubize W 4-143.0 1483 1432 51.77% 23.79% 24.44%+0.45 +12.8 12
2018-11-03 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-443.0 1432 1483 24.44% 23.79% 51.77%-0.45 -12.9 6
2018-11-04 Lommel D 1-168.2 1585 1547 50.06% 24.03% 25.91%+0.37 -1.0 24
2018-11-04 @ Union SG D 1-168.2 1547 1585 25.91% 24.03% 50.06%-0.37 +1.0 19
2018-11-04 Mechelen L 0-348.5 1546 1665 28.92% 24.39% 46.69%-0.56 -17.6 19
2018-11-04 @ Westerlo W 3-048.5 1665 1546 46.69% 24.39% 28.92%+0.56 +17.5 27
2018-11-09 Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-262.5 1548 1545 45.65% 24.48% 29.87%+0.17 -8.7 19
2018-11-09 @ Lommel W 2-162.5 1545 1548 29.87% 24.48% 45.65%-0.17 +8.7 24
2018-11-09 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-446.6 1492 1496 44.59% 24.55% 30.86%+0.12 -32.2 13
2018-11-09 @ Roeselare W 4-046.6 1496 1492 30.86% 24.55% 44.59%-0.12 +32.2 15
2018-11-09 Union SG W 2-158.5 1683 1584 57.40% 22.74% 19.86%+0.74 +4.4 30
2018-11-09 @ Mechelen L 1-258.5 1584 1683 19.86% 22.74% 57.40%-0.74 -4.4 24
2018-11-09 Westerlo W 2-046.7 1419 1528 30.24% 24.51% 45.25%-0.50 +17.2 9
2018-11-09 @ Tubize L 0-246.7 1528 1419 45.25% 24.51% 30.24%+0.50 -17.2 19
2018-11-16 Union SG L 1-260.8 1528 1579 38.05% 24.78% 37.18%-0.15 -7.5 15
2018-11-16 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-160.8 1579 1528 37.18% 24.78% 38.05%+0.15 +7.5 27
2018-11-17 Lommel W 3-261.9 1687 1540 62.51% 21.40% 16.09%+1.02 +3.4 33
2018-11-17 @ Mechelen L 2-361.9 1540 1687 16.09% 21.40% 62.51%-1.02 -3.4 19
2018-11-17 Roeselare W 3-257.5 1436 1460 42.02% 24.69% 33.29%+0.01 +6.4 12
2018-11-17 @ Tubize L 2-357.5 1460 1436 33.29% 24.69% 42.02%-0.01 -6.4 13
2018-11-18 Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-259.7 1511 1554 39.26% 24.77% 35.98%-0.10 -7.7 19
2018-11-18 @ Westerlo W 2-159.7 1554 1511 35.98% 24.77% 39.26%+0.10 +7.7 27
2018-11-23 Mechelen D 0-064.2 1453 1691 17.42% 21.94% 60.64%-1.26 +2.2 14
2018-11-23 @ Roeselare D 0-064.2 1691 1453 60.64% 21.94% 17.42%+1.26 -2.2 34
2018-11-24 Tubize W 1-044.0 1536 1443 56.78% 22.88% 20.34%+0.71 +4.7 22
2018-11-24 @ Lommel L 0-144.0 1443 1536 20.34% 22.88% 56.78%-0.71 -4.7 12
2018-11-24 Westerlo D 0-062.2 1587 1503 55.64% 23.12% 21.24%+0.65 -1.7 28
2018-11-24 @ Union SG D 0-062.2 1503 1587 21.24% 23.12% 55.64%-0.65 +1.7 20
2018-11-25 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-261.6 1561 1521 50.46% 23.97% 25.56%+0.39 +5.2 30
2018-11-25 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 2-361.6 1521 1561 25.56% 23.97% 50.46%-0.39 -5.2 15
2018-11-30 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-171.6 1688 1566 59.88% 22.14% 17.98%+0.87 -1.9 35
2018-11-30 @ Mechelen D 1-171.6 1566 1688 17.98% 22.14% 59.88%-0.87 +1.9 31
2018-12-01 Lommel W 3-154.0 1516 1541 41.67% 24.70% 33.63%+0.00 +11.8 18
2018-12-01 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-354.0 1541 1516 33.63% 24.70% 41.67%+0.00 -11.8 22
2018-12-01 Roeselare W 2-040.8 1505 1455 51.61% 23.81% 24.58%+0.44 +10.5 23
2018-12-01 @ Westerlo L 0-240.8 1455 1505 24.58% 23.81% 51.61%-0.44 -10.5 14
2018-12-02 Union SG W 2-050.9 1438 1585 25.77% 24.01% 50.23%-0.72 +18.7 15
2018-12-02 @ Tubize L 0-250.9 1585 1438 50.23% 24.01% 25.77%+0.72 -18.7 28
2018-12-04 Lommel L 1-261.0 1527 1529 44.91% 24.53% 30.56%+0.14 -8.5 18
2018-12-04 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-161.0 1529 1527 30.56% 24.53% 44.91%-0.14 +8.5 25
2018-12-07 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-152.6 1445 1519 34.80% 24.74% 40.46%-0.29 +13.6 17
2018-12-07 @ Roeselare L 1-352.6 1519 1445 40.46% 24.74% 34.80%+0.29 -13.6 18
2018-12-08 Mechelen L 1-354.8 1516 1686 23.26% 23.57% 53.17%-0.86 -8.7 23
2018-12-08 @ Westerlo W 3-154.8 1686 1516 53.17% 23.57% 23.26%+0.86 +8.7 38
2018-12-08 Tubize W 5-247.4 1568 1457 58.76% 22.42% 18.82%+0.81 +8.8 34
2018-12-08 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 2-547.4 1457 1568 18.82% 22.42% 58.76%-0.81 -8.8 15
2018-12-09 Union SG L 0-251.3 1538 1566 41.26% 24.72% 34.03%-0.02 -15.9 25
2018-12-09 @ Lommel W 2-051.3 1566 1538 34.03% 24.72% 41.26%+0.02 +15.9 31
2018-12-14 Mechelen L 1-354.1 1505 1695 21.43% 23.16% 55.41%-0.98 -8.1 18
2018-12-14 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-154.1 1695 1505 55.41% 23.16% 21.43%+0.98 +8.1 41
2018-12-15 Roeselare L 0-154.1 1522 1458 53.30% 23.55% 23.15%+0.53 -10.5 25
2018-12-15 @ Lommel W 1-054.1 1458 1522 23.15% 23.55% 53.30%-0.53 +10.4 20
2018-12-15 Westerlo D 0-056.8 1448 1507 36.96% 24.78% 38.26%-0.20 +0.1 16
2018-12-15 @ Tubize D 0-056.8 1507 1448 38.26% 24.78% 36.96%+0.20 -0.1 24
2018-12-16 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-168.8 1582 1577 45.88% 24.46% 29.66%+0.18 -0.7 32
2018-12-16 @ Union SG D 1-168.8 1577 1582 29.66% 24.46% 45.88%-0.18 +0.7 35
2018-12-21 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 0-058.7 1507 1497 46.47% 24.41% 29.12%+0.21 -0.8 25
2018-12-21 @ Westerlo D 0-058.7 1497 1507 29.12% 24.41% 46.47%-0.21 +0.8 19
2018-12-22 Lommel W 3-043.1 1578 1512 53.62% 23.49% 22.89%+0.54 +14.4 38
2018-12-22 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-343.1 1512 1578 22.89% 23.49% 53.62%-0.54 -14.4 25
2018-12-22 Tubize W 3-147.9 1703 1448 72.21% 17.73% 10.06%+1.66 +3.7 44
2018-12-22 @ Mechelen L 1-347.9 1448 1703 10.06% 17.73% 72.21%-1.66 -3.7 16
2018-12-23 Union SG D 1-165.3 1469 1582 29.74% 24.47% 45.80%-0.52 +0.7 21
2018-12-23 @ Roeselare D 1-165.3 1582 1469 45.80% 24.47% 29.74%+0.52 -0.7 33
2019-01-11 Westerlo W 2-155.0 1497 1506 43.98% 24.59% 31.42%+0.10 +6.5 28
2019-01-11 @ Lommel L 1-255.0 1506 1497 31.42% 24.59% 43.98%-0.10 -6.5 25
2019-01-12 Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-256.3 1469 1592 28.54% 24.35% 47.10%-0.58 -6.0 21
2019-01-12 @ Roeselare W 2-156.3 1592 1469 47.10% 24.35% 28.54%+0.58 +6.0 41
2019-01-13 Mechelen L 1-261.8 1581 1707 28.17% 24.31% 47.52%-0.60 -5.9 33
2019-01-13 @ Union SG W 2-161.8 1707 1581 47.52% 24.31% 28.17%+0.60 +5.9 47
2019-01-13 Tubize L 0-248.4 1498 1444 52.07% 23.74% 24.18%+0.47 -19.3 19
2019-01-13 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-048.4 1444 1498 24.18% 23.74% 52.07%-0.47 +19.3 19
2019-01-18 Roeselare D 2-277.8 1713 1464 71.75% 17.93% 10.31%+1.63 -2.1 48
2019-01-18 @ Mechelen D 2-277.8 1464 1713 10.31% 17.93% 71.75%-1.63 +2.1 22
2019-01-19 Lommel D 0-057.2 1464 1504 39.66% 24.76% 35.58%-0.09 -0.2 20
2019-01-19 @ Tubize D 0-057.2 1504 1464 35.58% 24.76% 39.66%+0.09 +0.2 29
2019-01-19 Westerlo D 1-167.5 1598 1500 57.35% 22.75% 19.89%+0.74 -1.7 42
2019-01-19 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-167.5 1500 1598 19.89% 22.75% 57.35%-0.74 +1.7 26
2019-01-20 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-153.0 1575 1479 57.10% 22.81% 20.09%+0.72 +4.4 36
2019-01-20 @ Union SG L 1-253.0 1479 1575 20.09% 22.81% 57.10%-0.72 -4.4 19
2019-01-25 Tubize L 0-150.2 1466 1464 45.45% 24.49% 30.05%+0.16 -9.1 22
2019-01-25 @ Roeselare W 1-050.2 1464 1466 30.05% 24.49% 45.45%-0.16 +9.1 23
2019-01-26 Mechelen D 0-066.7 1596 1711 29.58% 24.45% 45.97%-0.53 +0.8 43
2019-01-26 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 0-066.7 1711 1596 45.97% 24.45% 29.58%+0.53 -0.8 49
2019-01-26 Union SG W 2-050.4 1501 1579 34.23% 24.73% 41.05%-0.31 +15.9 29
2019-01-26 @ Westerlo L 0-250.4 1579 1501 41.05% 24.73% 34.23%+0.31 -15.9 36
2019-01-27 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 2-364.9 1504 1474 49.06% 24.15% 26.79%+0.32 -8.7 29
2019-01-27 @ Lommel W 3-264.9 1474 1504 26.79% 24.15% 49.06%-0.32 +8.7 22
2019-02-01 Roeselare L 0-151.4 1483 1456 48.68% 24.19% 27.13%+0.31 -9.7 22
2019-02-01 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-051.4 1456 1483 27.13% 24.19% 48.68%-0.31 +9.7 25
2019-02-02 Westerlo W 3-042.8 1710 1517 66.88% 19.93% 13.20%+1.29 +8.4 52
2019-02-02 @ Mechelen L 0-342.8 1517 1710 13.20% 19.93% 66.88%-1.29 -8.4 29
2019-02-03 Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-352.8 1473 1597 28.33% 24.33% 47.34%-0.59 -10.3 23
2019-02-03 @ Tubize W 3-152.8 1597 1473 47.34% 24.33% 28.33%+0.59 +10.3 46
2019-02-06 Lommel W 1-047.8 1564 1495 53.88% 23.45% 22.67%+0.56 +5.2 39
2019-02-06 @ Union SG L 0-147.8 1495 1564 22.67% 23.45% 53.88%-0.56 -5.2 29
2019-02-08 Tubize W 1-045.4 1509 1462 51.17% 23.88% 24.95%+0.42 +5.7 32
2019-02-08 @ Westerlo L 0-145.4 1462 1509 24.95% 23.88% 51.17%-0.42 -5.7 23
2019-02-09 Lommel W 4-254.2 1466 1490 41.93% 24.69% 33.38%+0.01 +10.5 28
2019-02-09 @ Roeselare L 2-454.2 1490 1466 33.38% 24.69% 41.93%-0.01 -10.5 29
2019-02-09 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-152.8 1718 1473 71.40% 18.09% 10.51%+1.60 +2.2 55
2019-02-09 @ Mechelen L 1-252.8 1473 1718 10.51% 18.09% 71.40%-1.60 -2.2 22
2019-02-10 Union SG W 3-155.1 1608 1569 50.24% 24.00% 25.76%+0.38 +9.5 49
2019-02-10 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-355.1 1569 1608 25.76% 24.00% 50.24%-0.38 -9.5 39
2019-02-15 Mechelen L 0-342.7 1457 1721 15.53% 21.15% 63.32%-1.41 -9.9 23
2019-02-15 @ Tubize W 3-042.7 1721 1457 63.32% 21.15% 15.53%+1.41 +9.9 58
2019-02-16 Roeselare L 1-263.1 1559 1477 55.54% 23.14% 21.33%+0.64 -10.2 39
2019-02-16 @ Union SG W 2-163.1 1477 1559 21.33% 23.14% 55.54%-0.64 +10.2 31
2019-02-16 Westerlo W 3-043.6 1471 1514 39.17% 24.77% 36.06%-0.11 +20.9 25
2019-02-16 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-343.6 1514 1471 36.06% 24.77% 39.17%+0.11 -20.9 32
2019-02-17 Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-246.5 1479 1617 26.80% 24.15% 49.05%-0.67 -11.3 29
2019-02-17 @ Lommel W 2-046.5 1617 1479 49.05% 24.15% 26.80%+0.67 +11.4 52
2019-02-22 Lommel D 2-268.7 1493 1468 48.54% 24.21% 27.26%+0.30 -0.7 33
2019-02-22 @ Westerlo D 2-268.7 1468 1493 27.26% 24.21% 48.54%-0.30 +0.7 30
2019-02-23 Roeselare D 1-168.4 1628 1487 61.92% 21.57% 16.50%+0.99 -2.1 53
2019-02-23 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-168.4 1487 1628 16.50% 21.57% 61.92%-0.99 +2.1 32
2019-02-23 Union SG L 0-561.1 1730 1549 65.81% 20.31% 13.87%+1.23 -55.2 58
2019-02-23 @ Mechelen W 5-061.1 1549 1730 13.87% 20.31% 65.81%-1.23 +55.2 42
2019-02-24 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-351.2 1447 1492 38.91% 24.77% 36.32%-0.12 -13.2 23
2019-02-24 @ Tubize W 3-151.2 1492 1447 36.32% 24.77% 38.91%+0.12 +13.2 28
2019-03-03 Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-274.7 1505 1626 28.73% 24.37% 46.90%-0.57 +0.6 29
2019-03-03 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-274.7 1626 1505 46.90% 24.37% 28.73%+0.57 -0.6 54
2019-03-03 Mechelen D 1-168.9 1469 1675 19.93% 22.76% 57.31%-1.08 +1.7 31
2019-03-03 @ Lommel D 1-168.9 1675 1469 57.31% 22.76% 19.93%+1.08 -1.7 59
2019-03-03 Tubize W 1-043.8 1604 1434 64.80% 20.66% 14.54%+1.16 +3.4 45
2019-03-03 @ Union SG L 0-143.8 1434 1604 14.54% 20.66% 64.80%-1.16 -3.4 23
2019-03-03 Westerlo D 1-162.7 1489 1493 44.66% 24.55% 30.79%+0.13 -0.6 33
2019-03-03 @ Roeselare D 1-162.7 1493 1489 30.79% 24.55% 44.66%-0.13 +0.6 34

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2019-03-22 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-246.4 1470 1506 40.29% 24.75% 34.96%-0.06 -15.7 0
2019-03-22 @ Lommel W 2-046.4 1506 1470 34.96% 24.75% 40.29%+0.06 +15.7 3
2019-03-24 Roeselare D 1-160.4 1430 1488 37.05% 24.78% 38.18%-0.19 +0.0 1
2019-03-24 @ Tubize D 1-160.4 1488 1430 38.18% 24.78% 37.05%+0.19 -0.0 1
2019-03-29 Tubize L 0-153.8 1521 1430 56.50% 22.94% 20.56%+0.69 -11.0 3
2019-03-29 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-053.8 1430 1521 20.56% 22.94% 56.50%-0.69 +11.0 4
2019-03-30 Cercle Brugge W 3-1 1608 1589 47.68% 24.30% 28.02%+0.26 +10.2 3
2019-03-30 @ Union SG L 1-3 1589 1608 28.02% 24.30% 47.68%-0.26 -10.2 0
2019-03-31 Lommel L 0-151.8 1488 1455 49.58% 24.09% 26.33%+0.35 -9.8 1
2019-03-31 @ Roeselare W 1-051.8 1455 1488 26.33% 24.09% 49.58%-0.35 +9.8 3
2019-03-31 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-1 1493 1620 28.03% 24.30% 47.67%-0.60 +0.8 1
2019-03-31 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1620 1493 47.67% 24.30% 28.03%+0.60 -0.8 1
2019-04-02 Union SG L 0-2 1717 1618 57.40% 22.74% 19.86%+0.74 -21.0 0
2019-04-02 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-0 1618 1717 19.86% 22.74% 57.40%-0.74 +21.0 6
2019-04-03 Sint-Truiden L 1-2 1620 1777 24.64% 23.83% 51.53%-0.78 -5.3 1
2019-04-03 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-1 1777 1620 51.53% 23.83% 24.64%+0.78 +5.3 3
2019-04-03 Westerlo L 0-3 1630 1494 61.29% 21.75% 16.95%+0.95 -32.3 0
2019-04-03 @ Eupen W 3-0 1494 1630 16.95% 21.75% 61.29%-0.95 +32.3 4
2019-04-05 Lommel D 1-160.0 1441 1465 41.99% 24.69% 33.32%+0.01 -0.4 5
2019-04-05 @ Tubize D 1-160.0 1465 1441 33.32% 24.69% 41.99%-0.01 +0.4 4
2019-04-06 Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-1 1639 1614 48.46% 24.22% 27.32%+0.30 +5.8 3
2019-04-06 @ Oostende L 1-2 1614 1639 27.32% 24.22% 48.46%-0.30 -5.8 1
2019-04-06 Sint-Truiden D 2-2 1526 1782 16.09% 21.39% 62.52%-1.37 +1.6 5
2019-04-06 @ Westerlo D 2-2 1782 1526 62.52% 21.39% 16.09%+1.37 -1.6 4
2019-04-06 Waasland-Beveren W 5-1 1639 1646 44.20% 24.58% 31.22%+0.11 +20.3 9
2019-04-06 @ Union SG L 1-5 1646 1639 31.22% 24.58% 44.20%-0.11 -20.3 0
2019-04-07 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-269.6 1478 1510 40.78% 24.73% 34.49%-0.04 -0.2 2
2019-04-07 @ Roeselare D 2-269.6 1510 1478 34.49% 24.73% 40.78%+0.04 +0.2 4
2019-04-12 Tubize W 3-038.0 1465 1441 48.35% 24.23% 27.42%+0.29 +16.8 7
2019-04-12 @ Lommel L 0-338.0 1441 1465 27.42% 24.23% 48.35%-0.29 -16.8 5
2019-04-13 Eupen W 2-0 1608 1591 47.53% 24.31% 28.16%+0.25 +11.8 4
2019-04-13 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-2 1591 1608 28.16% 24.31% 47.53%-0.25 -11.8 0
2019-04-13 Union SG L 0-1 1774 1659 59.14% 22.33% 18.53%+0.83 -11.4 0
2019-04-13 @ Kortrijk W 1-0 1659 1774 18.53% 22.33% 59.14%-0.83 +11.4 12
2019-04-14 Roeselare W 3-040.7 1511 1478 49.42% 24.11% 26.47%+0.34 +16.3 7
2019-04-14 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-340.7 1478 1511 26.47% 24.11% 49.42%-0.34 -16.3 2
2019-04-14 Westerlo W 2-0 1720 1528 66.79% 19.96% 13.25%+1.29 +5.8 3
2019-04-14 @ Charleroi L 0-2 1528 1720 13.25% 19.96% 66.79%-1.29 -5.8 5
2019-04-19 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-340.8 1424 1527 31.01% 24.56% 44.43%-0.46 -18.6 5
2019-04-19 @ Tubize W 3-040.8 1527 1424 44.43% 24.56% 31.01%+0.46 +18.6 10
2019-04-20 Oostende D 0-0 1522 1641 29.04% 24.40% 46.56%-0.55 +0.8 6
2019-04-20 @ Westerlo D 0-0 1641 1522 46.56% 24.40% 29.04%+0.55 -0.8 4
2019-04-20 Zulte Waregem D 2-2 1671 1709 39.84% 24.76% 35.41%-0.08 -0.1 13
2019-04-20 @ Union SG D 2-2 1709 1671 35.41% 24.76% 39.84%+0.08 +0.1 1
2019-04-21 Roeselare L 0-151.3 1482 1462 47.80% 24.28% 27.92%+0.27 -9.5 7
2019-04-21 @ Lommel W 1-051.3 1462 1482 27.92% 24.28% 47.80%-0.27 +9.5 5
2019-04-22 Beerschot Wilrijk W 4-0 1726 1620 58.10% 22.58% 19.31%+0.78 +16.1 6
2019-04-22 @ Charleroi L 0-4 1620 1726 19.31% 22.58% 58.10%-0.78 -16.1 4
2019-04-26 Lommel W 1-046.1 1545 1472 54.45% 23.35% 22.21%+0.58 +5.1 13
2019-04-26 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-146.1 1472 1545 22.21% 23.35% 54.45%-0.58 -5.1 7
2019-04-26 Tubize W 4-035.9 1472 1406 53.57% 23.50% 22.92%+0.54 +18.8 8
2019-04-26 @ Roeselare L 0-435.9 1406 1472 22.92% 23.50% 53.57%-0.54 -18.8 5
2019-04-27 Eupen W 1-0 1523 1581 37.12% 24.78% 38.10%-0.19 +8.0 9
2019-04-27 @ Westerlo L 0-1 1581 1523 38.10% 24.78% 37.12%+0.19 -8.0 0
2019-04-27 Union SG W 3-2 1627 1671 39.11% 24.77% 36.12%-0.11 +6.8 3
2019-04-27 @ Waasland-Beveren L 2-3 1671 1627 36.12% 24.77% 39.11%+0.11 -6.8 13
2019-04-28 Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-2 1783 1604 65.56% 20.40% 14.04%+1.21 -1.8 5
2019-04-28 @ Sint-Truiden D 2-2 1604 1783 14.04% 20.40% 65.56%-1.21 +1.8 5
2019-05-04 Union SG L 2-3 1580 1664 33.54% 24.70% 41.76%-0.34 -6.5 0
2019-05-04 @ Cercle Brugge W 3-2 1664 1580 41.76% 24.70% 33.54%+0.34 +6.5 16
2019-05-04 Westerlo W 3-2 1606 1531 54.64% 23.31% 22.05%+0.59 +4.5 8
2019-05-04 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 2-3 1531 1606 22.05% 23.31% 54.64%-0.59 -4.5 9
2019-05-11 Charleroi L 0-3 1611 1756 25.97% 24.04% 49.99%-0.71 -16.0 8
2019-05-11 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-0 1756 1611 49.99% 24.04% 25.97%+0.71 +16.0 9
2019-05-11 Royal Excel Mouscron D 3-3 1670 1694 41.98% 24.69% 33.33%+0.01 -0.2 17
2019-05-11 @ Union SG D 3-3 1694 1670 33.33% 24.69% 41.98%-0.01 +0.2 1
2019-05-11 Westerlo L 0-3 1633 1527 58.24% 22.55% 19.21%+0.78 -30.9 4
2019-05-11 @ Oostende W 3-0 1527 1633 19.21% 22.55% 58.24%-0.78 +30.9 12
2019-05-14 Kortrijk W 2-0 1670 1810 26.52% 24.11% 49.37%-0.68 +18.5 20
2019-05-14 @ Union SG L 0-2 1810 1670 49.37% 24.11% 26.52%+0.68 -18.5 0
2019-05-15 Beerschot Wilrijk W 1-0 1582 1594 43.46% 24.62% 31.92%+0.07 +6.9 3
2019-05-15 @ Eupen L 0-1 1594 1582 31.92% 24.62% 43.46%-0.07 -6.9 8
2019-05-15 Charleroi L 0-2 1557 1772 19.27% 22.57% 58.16%-1.12 -8.5 12
2019-05-15 @ Westerlo W 2-0 1772 1557 58.16% 22.57% 19.27%+1.12 +8.5 12
2019-05-17 Union SG W 2-1 1704 1688 47.22% 24.34% 28.44%+0.24 +6.0 4
2019-05-17 @ Zulte Waregem L 1-2 1688 1704 28.44% 24.34% 47.22%-0.24 -6.0 20
2019-05-18 Oostende L 1-2 1588 1604 43.01% 24.65% 32.35%+0.06 -8.2 8
2019-05-18 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-1 1604 1588 32.35% 24.65% 43.01%-0.06 +8.2 7
2019-05-18 Westerlo W 2-1 1764 1549 68.85% 19.16% 11.99%+1.43 +2.6 8
2019-05-18 @ Sint-Truiden L 1-2 1549 1764 11.99% 19.16% 68.85%-1.43 -2.6 12

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2019-03-09 Mechelen D 0-066.5 1626 1674 38.52% 24.78% 36.71%-0.13 -0.1 0-0-1
2019-03-09 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 0-066.5 1674 1626 36.71% 24.78% 38.52%+0.13 +0.1 0-0-1
2019-03-16 Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-160.8 1674 1626 51.39% 23.85% 24.76%+0.43 +5.3 1-0-1
2019-03-16 @ Mechelen L 1-260.8 1626 1674 24.76% 23.85% 51.39%-0.43 -5.3 0-1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-02-23 13.87% Union SG 1549 5 @ Mechelen 1730 0
2 2019-03-29 20.56% Tubize 1430 1 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1521 0
3 2019-02-16 21.33% Roeselare 1477 2 @ Union SG 1559 1
4 2018-12-15 23.15% Roeselare 1458 1 @ Lommel 1522 0
5 2018-10-19 23.95% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1482 1 @ Westerlo 1538 0
6 2019-01-13 24.18% Tubize 1444 2 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1498 0
7 2018-08-18 24.84% Union SG 1505 3 @ Westerlo 1552 1
8 2018-08-17 24.86% Lommel 1546 2 @ Mechelen 1594 1
9 2018-12-02 25.77% @ Tubize 1438 2 Union SG 1585 0
10 2019-03-31 26.33% Lommel 1455 1 @ Roeselare 1488 0
11 2018-10-28 26.78% Westerlo 1528 1 @ Lommel 1557 0
12 2019-01-27 26.79% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1474 3 @ Lommel 1504 2
13 2019-02-01 27.13% Roeselare 1456 1 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1483 0
14 2018-09-22 27.80% Roeselare 1504 2 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1525 0
15 2019-04-21 27.92% Roeselare 1462 1 @ Lommel 1482 0
16 2018-09-22 28.12% Lommel 1540 3 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1558 1
17 2018-09-01 28.19% Westerlo 1536 3 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1553 1
18 2018-09-29 28.28% Beerschot Wilrijk 1542 2 @ Westerlo 1559 1
19 2018-11-09 29.87% Beerschot Wilrijk 1545 2 @ Lommel 1548 1
20 2019-01-25 30.05% Tubize 1464 1 @ Roeselare 1466 0
21 2018-11-09 30.24% @ Tubize 1419 2 Westerlo 1528 0
22 2018-12-04 30.56% Lommel 1529 2 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1527 1
23 2018-11-09 30.86% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1496 4 @ Roeselare 1492 0
24 2018-12-09 34.03% Union SG 1566 2 @ Lommel 1538 0
25 2019-01-26 34.23% @ Westerlo 1501 2 Union SG 1579 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-02-23 55.22 Union SG 5 1549 13.87% @ Mechelen 0 1730 65.81% 20.31%
2 2018-11-09 32.18 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4 1496 30.86% @ Roeselare 0 1492 44.59% 24.55%
3 2018-09-29 22.59 Mechelen 3 1593 35.29% @ Lommel 0 1555 39.96% 24.75%
4 2019-02-16 20.89 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1471 39.17% Westerlo 0 1514 36.06% 24.77%
5 2019-01-13 19.31 Tubize 2 1444 24.18% @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0 1498 52.07% 23.74%
6 2019-04-26 18.81 @ Roeselare 4 1472 53.57% Tubize 0 1406 22.92% 23.50%
7 2018-12-02 18.73 @ Tubize 2 1438 25.77% Union SG 0 1585 50.23% 24.01%
8 2019-04-19 18.57 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1527 44.43% @ Tubize 0 1424 31.01% 24.56%
9 2018-09-22 18.01 Roeselare 2 1504 27.80% @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0 1525 47.93% 24.27%
10 2018-11-04 17.56 Mechelen 3 1665 46.69% @ Westerlo 0 1546 28.92% 24.39%
11 2018-11-09 17.17 @ Tubize 2 1419 30.24% Westerlo 0 1528 45.25% 24.51%
12 2019-04-12 16.80 @ Lommel 3 1465 48.35% Tubize 0 1441 27.42% 24.23%
13 2018-08-18 16.51 Union SG 3 1505 24.84% @ Westerlo 1 1552 51.30% 23.86%
14 2019-04-14 16.31 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1511 49.42% Roeselare 0 1478 26.47% 24.11%
15 2018-12-09 15.95 Union SG 2 1566 34.03% @ Lommel 0 1538 41.26% 24.72%
16 2019-01-26 15.88 @ Westerlo 2 1501 34.23% Union SG 0 1579 41.05% 24.73%
17 2019-03-22 15.66 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1506 34.96% @ Lommel 0 1470 40.29% 24.75%
18 2018-09-22 15.50 Lommel 3 1540 28.12% @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1558 47.58% 24.31%
19 2018-09-01 15.47 Westerlo 3 1536 28.19% @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1553 47.49% 24.32%
20 2018-09-21 15.44 Union SG 2 1528 35.64% @ Tubize 0 1488 39.60% 24.76%
21 2018-09-16 15.35 @ Westerlo 4 1556 45.26% Lommel 1 1555 30.23% 24.51%
22 2018-12-22 14.38 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 3 1578 53.62% Lommel 0 1512 22.89% 23.49%
23 2018-10-21 14.12 @ Mechelen 3 1627 54.17% Beerschot Wilrijk 0 1556 22.43% 23.40%
24 2018-10-20 13.70 Lommel 2 1543 41.46% @ Tubize 0 1462 33.83% 24.71%
25 2018-12-07 13.60 @ Roeselare 3 1445 34.80% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1519 40.46% 24.74%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-01-18 77.8 @ Mechelen 2 1713 71.75% Roeselare 2 1464 10.31% 17.93%
2 2018-08-05 75.3 @ Tubize 3 1483 35.59% Beerschot Wilrijk 3 1552 39.65% 24.76%
3 2019-03-03 74.7 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1505 28.73% Beerschot Wilrijk 2 1626 46.90% 24.37%
4 2018-08-11 73.7 @ Roeselare 2 1509 33.35% Mechelen 2 1594 41.96% 24.69%
5 2018-09-09 73.7 @ Union SG 2 1515 34.91% Mechelen 2 1589 40.34% 24.75%
6 2018-09-01 72.4 @ Roeselare 2 1510 38.73% Lommel 2 1556 36.49% 24.77%
7 2018-11-30 71.6 @ Mechelen 1 1688 59.88% Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1566 17.98% 22.14%
8 2018-08-11 71.5 @ Lommel 2 1547 53.34% Tubize 2 1483 23.12% 23.54%
9 2019-04-07 69.6 @ Roeselare 2 1478 40.78% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1510 34.49% 24.73%
10 2019-03-03 68.9 @ Lommel 1 1469 19.93% Mechelen 1 1675 57.31% 22.76%
11 2018-12-16 68.8 @ Union SG 1 1582 45.88% Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1577 29.66% 24.46%
12 2019-02-22 68.7 @ Westerlo 2 1493 48.54% Lommel 2 1468 27.26% 24.21%
13 2019-02-23 68.4 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1628 61.92% Roeselare 1 1487 16.50% 21.57%
14 2018-11-04 68.2 @ Union SG 1 1585 50.06% Lommel 1 1547 25.91% 24.03%
15 2018-08-04 68.1 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1546 38.49% Mechelen 1 1594 36.73% 24.78%
16 2019-01-19 67.5 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1598 57.35% Westerlo 1 1500 19.89% 22.75%
17 2018-08-19 67.2 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1554 45.52% Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1551 29.99% 24.49%
18 2018-08-10 67.1 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1552 45.22% Westerlo 1 1551 30.27% 24.51%
19 2018-09-08 66.9 @ Lommel 1 1556 47.66% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1537 28.04% 24.30%
20 2019-01-26 66.7 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 0 1596 29.58% Mechelen 0 1711 45.97% 24.45%
21 2018-10-20 66.5 @ Roeselare 1 1517 37.86% Union SG 1 1569 37.37% 24.78%
22 2019-03-09 * 66.5 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 0 1626 38.52% Mechelen 0 1674 36.71% 24.78%
23 2018-08-17 65.5 Lommel 2 1546 24.86% @ Mechelen 1 1594 51.28% 23.86%
24 2018-12-23 65.3 @ Roeselare 1 1469 29.74% Union SG 1 1582 45.80% 24.47%
25 2019-01-27 64.9 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1474 26.79% @ Lommel 2 1504 49.06% 24.15%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-04-26 35.9 @ Roeselare 4 1472 53.57% Tubize 0 1406 22.92% 23.50%
2 2019-04-12 38.0 @ Lommel 3 1465 48.35% Tubize 0 1441 27.42% 24.23%
3 2019-04-14 40.7 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1511 49.42% Roeselare 0 1478 26.47% 24.11%
4 2018-12-01 40.8 @ Westerlo 2 1505 51.61% Roeselare 0 1455 24.58% 23.81%
5 2019-04-19 40.8 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1527 44.43% @ Tubize 0 1424 31.01% 24.56%
6 2018-10-05 41.8 @ Mechelen 3 1616 59.91% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0 1494 17.96% 22.13%
7 2018-10-30 42.2 Mechelen 3 1653 57.45% @ Tubize 0 1445 19.81% 22.73%
8 2019-02-15 42.7 Mechelen 3 1721 63.32% @ Tubize 0 1457 15.53% 21.15%
9 2019-02-02 42.8 @ Mechelen 3 1710 66.88% Westerlo 0 1517 13.20% 19.93%
10 2018-11-03 43.0 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4 1483 51.77% Tubize 1 1432 24.44% 23.79%
11 2018-12-22 43.1 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 3 1578 53.62% Lommel 0 1512 22.89% 23.49%
12 2018-10-27 43.2 @ Mechelen 3 1641 60.15% Roeselare 0 1517 17.78% 22.07%
13 2019-02-16 43.6 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1471 39.17% Westerlo 0 1514 36.06% 24.77%
14 2019-03-03 43.8 @ Union SG 1 1604 64.80% Tubize 0 1434 14.54% 20.66%
15 2018-11-24 44.0 @ Lommel 1 1536 56.78% Tubize 0 1443 20.34% 22.88%
16 2019-02-08 45.4 @ Westerlo 1 1509 51.17% Tubize 0 1462 24.95% 23.88%
17 2018-09-15 45.5 @ Union SG 2 1515 44.99% Roeselare 0 1517 30.48% 24.53%
18 2018-10-20 45.5 Lommel 2 1543 41.46% @ Tubize 0 1462 33.83% 24.71%
19 2018-10-21 45.6 @ Mechelen 3 1627 54.17% Beerschot Wilrijk 0 1556 22.43% 23.40%
20 2018-10-06 45.8 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1551 55.72% Tubize 0 1467 21.18% 23.10%
21 2019-04-26 46.1 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1545 54.45% Lommel 0 1472 22.21% 23.35%
22 2019-03-22 46.4 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1506 34.96% @ Lommel 0 1470 40.29% 24.75%
23 2019-02-17 46.5 Beerschot Wilrijk 2 1617 49.05% @ Lommel 0 1479 26.80% 24.15%
24 2018-11-09 46.6 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4 1496 30.86% @ Roeselare 0 1492 44.59% 24.55%
25 2018-11-09 46.7 @ Tubize 2 1419 30.24% Westerlo 0 1528 45.25% 24.51%