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2021-22 First Division B Season

112 games

Final

Promoted

Westerlo

56 pts

Relegated

Royal Excel Mouscron

via dissolution

Biggest Overachiever

RWDM 47

9.67 points above expected

49 points · 39.33 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Excelsior Virton

11.92 points below expected

21 points · 32.92 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Westerlo Promoted 28 17 5 6 56 52 29 +23 49.72 +6.28
2 RWDM 47 28 14 7 7 49 41 33 +8 39.33 +9.67
3 Waasland-Beveren 28 12 5 11 41 47 40 +7 41.92 -0.92
4 Deinze 28 9 12 7 39 47 39 +8 40.88 -1.88
5 Lierse Kempenzonen 28 9 9 10 36 39 42 -3 32.45 +3.55
6 Lommel 28 9 8 11 35 39 40 -1 35.37 -0.37
7 Royal Excel Mouscron Dissolved 28 8 6 14 30 31 45 -14 37.25 -7.25
8 Excelsior Virton 28 5 6 17 21 24 52 -28 32.92 -11.92

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 RWDM 47 49 39.33 +9.67
2 Westerlo 56 49.72 +6.28
3 Lierse Kempenzonen 36 32.45 +3.55
4 Lommel 35 35.37 -0.37
5 Waasland-Beveren 41 41.92 -0.92

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Excelsior Virton 21 32.92 -11.92
2 Royal Excel Mouscron 30 37.25 -7.25
3 Deinze 39 40.88 -1.88
4 Waasland-Beveren 41 41.92 -0.92
5 Lommel 35 35.37 -0.37

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Royal Excel Mouscron 4 Oct 29 – Nov 28 1 in 85
2 Lommel 3 Apr 2 – Apr 16 1 in 26
3 Lierse Kempenzonen 2 Apr 1 – Apr 9 1 in 18
4 RWDM 47 3 Dec 4 – Jan 21 1 in 16
5 Westerlo 4 Sep 26 – Oct 24 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Royal Excel Mouscron 4 Aug 14 – Sep 10 1 in 78
2 Excelsior Virton 7 Jan 23 – Mar 6 1 in 55
3 Westerlo 2 Mar 11 – Mar 16 1 in 53
4 Lommel 3 Oct 24 – Nov 5 1 in 25
5 RWDM 47 3 Sep 12 – Sep 25 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lommel 9 Feb 13 – Apr 16 1 in 205
2 RWDM 47 8 Oct 22 – Jan 21 1 in 52
3 Westerlo 9 Aug 15 – Oct 24 1 in 24
4 Deinze 6 Aug 13 – Sep 26 1 in 23
5 Royal Excel Mouscron 5 Oct 22 – Nov 28 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lommel 11 Oct 24 – Feb 6 1 in 89
2 Royal Excel Mouscron 9 Aug 14 – Oct 22 1 in 64
3 Excelsior Virton 12 Nov 21 – Mar 6 1 in 37
4 Lierse Kempenzonen 7 Nov 7 – Jan 23 1 in 17
5 Deinze 5 Sep 19 – Oct 23 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Westerlo 1597 56 +0 7 9.4 -2.4
RWDM 47 1536 49 -12 8 8.0 +0.0
Waasland-Beveren 1502 41 -20 5 7.7 -2.7
Deinze 1530 39 +16 7 7.6 -0.6
Lierse Kempenzonen 1448 36 +46 10 5.3 +4.7
Lommel 1486 35 +37 11 6.0 +5.0
Royal Excel Mouscron 1423 30 -72 3 7.2 -4.2
Excelsior Virton 1334 21 +34 7 3.7 +3.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DEI EV LK LOM R4 REM WAA WES
Deinze —
3-1-0
6.87
0-3-1
6.54
0-3-1
6.26
1-1-2
5.62
2-1-1
5.82
1-2-1
5.08
2-1-1
3.89
Excelsior Virton
0-1-3
4.22
 —
1-2-1
5.48
2-0-2
4.79
0-1-3
4.28
1-1-2
4.76
0-0-4
4.14
1-1-2
3.59
Lierse Kempenzonen
1-3-0
4.53
1-2-1
5.59
 —
1-1-2
5.48
1-1-2
4.81
0-2-2
4.81
4-0-0
4.04
1-0-3
3.42
Lommel
1-3-0
4.81
2-0-2
6.28
2-1-1
5.58
 —
1-1-2
5.27
2-1-1
4.96
0-2-2
4.67
1-0-3
3.42
RWDM 47
2-1-1
5.44
3-1-0
6.82
2-1-1
6.26
2-1-1
5.80
 —
3-1-0
5.52
2-0-2
5.41
0-2-2
4.14
Royal Excel Mouscron
1-1-2
5.25
2-1-1
6.33
2-2-0
6.26
1-1-2
6.10
0-1-3
5.54
 —
2-0-2
4.86
0-0-4
3.83
Waasland-Beveren
1-2-1
5.98
4-0-0
6.95
0-0-4
7.04
2-2-0
6.40
2-0-2
5.65
2-0-2
6.21
 —
1-1-2
4.52
Westerlo
1-1-2
7.20
2-1-1
7.55
3-0-1
7.68
3-0-1
7.69
2-2-0
6.93
4-0-0
7.25
2-1-1
6.55
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +10.4
Allowed 0.97 -15.2
Differential 0.92 +6.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.36%5.80%8.48%4.02%0.89%—24.55%
15.80%9.82%9.38%3.57%0.89%0.45%29.91%
28.48%9.38%8.04%2.23%—0.45%28.57%
34.02%3.57%2.23%2.68%0.89%—13.39%
40.89%0.89%—0.89%——2.68%
5+—0.45%0.45%———0.89%
Total24.55%29.91%28.57%13.39%2.68%0.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.43 +0.00
SD 1.15 1.15 1.67
CV 0.80 0.80 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
1—14.29%14.29%—3.57%—32.14%
27.14%10.71%17.86%———35.71%
310.71%3.57%—7.14%——21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%32.14%35.71%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.39 +0.29
SD 0.94 1.03 1.46
CV 0.56 0.74 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%21.43%14.29%3.57%—46.43%
13.57%14.29%7.14%3.57%——28.57%
23.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
3—3.57%——3.57%—7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%28.57%32.14%21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.86 -1.00
SD 0.97 1.11 1.59
CV 1.13 0.60 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%7.14%———17.86%
110.71%10.71%7.14%7.14%—3.57%39.29%
27.14%7.14%14.29%3.57%——32.14%
3—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total21.43%32.14%28.57%14.29%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.50 -0.11
SD 0.99 1.20 1.52
CV 0.71 0.80 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%3.57%——25.00%
13.57%10.71%10.71%3.57%——28.57%
23.57%10.71%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
37.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%32.14%28.57%17.86%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.43 -0.04
SD 1.07 1.03 1.48
CV 0.77 0.72 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%——21.43%
114.29%3.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
210.71%7.14%7.14%———25.00%
33.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%——21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total39.29%21.43%25.00%10.71%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.18 +0.29
SD 1.07 1.19 1.54
CV 0.73 1.01 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%10.71%3.57%3.57%—35.71%
13.57%7.14%7.14%7.14%——25.00%
210.71%10.71%7.14%——3.57%32.14%
33.57%———3.57%—7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%28.57%25.00%10.71%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.61 -0.50
SD 0.99 1.47 1.77
CV 0.90 0.92 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%14.29%3.57%——25.00%
13.57%10.71%10.71%3.57%——28.57%
23.57%7.14%—3.57%——14.29%
33.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
47.14%3.57%—3.57%——14.29%
5+———————
Total21.43%32.14%28.57%17.86%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.43 +0.25
SD 1.42 1.03 1.92
CV 0.84 0.72 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%—3.57%——14.29%
17.14%7.14%10.71%———25.00%
221.43%14.29%7.14%———42.86%
33.57%—3.57%———7.14%
4———3.57%——3.57%
5+—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
Total35.71%32.14%25.00%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.04 +0.82
SD 1.41 0.96 1.59
CV 0.76 0.93 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Westerlo 1597 56 49.72 +6.28 83.0% 28 40 45 49 54 61 68
Deinze 1530 39 40.88 -1.88 38.0% 23 31 36 41 45 51 57
RWDM 47 1522 49 39.33 +9.67 92.0% 20 28 35 39 45 50 57
Waasland-Beveren 1502 41 41.92 -0.92 47.0% 27 29 37 42 46 52 60
Lommel 1486 35 35.37 -0.37 50.0% 16 23 30 35 41 47 52
Lierse Kempenzonen 1448 36 32.45 +3.55 78.0% 19 23 28 32 36 43 48
Royal Excel Mouscron 1423 30 37.25 -7.25 14.0% 21 25 33 37 42 47 52
Excelsior Virton 1334 21 32.92 -11.92 6.0% 18 20 28 33 37 45 52

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.04%
No Edge
41.07%25.89%33.04%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 27.98 Elo pts.
314 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.12 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
62%
Westerlo, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.25/gm
Runaway
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.4 * Some Luck: 5.4 to 8.1 * Lucky: 8.1 to 10.8 * Wild Swing: 10.8 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.24 * Close: 1.24 to 1.85 * Off: 1.85 to 2.47 * Way Off: 2.47 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.66 * A Surprise: 0.66 to 1.06 * Several Surprises: 1.06 to 1.45 * Many Surprises: 1.45 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.55 points
Some Luck
06.7517
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.25
Close
01.554
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
92.00%
RWDM 47
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
6.00%
Excelsior Virton
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 80.55
1.56
Moderate Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
63%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Even
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.25
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.92
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
-0.24
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
Very Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
32%
Very Shaky
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.21
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.46
Overconfident
0.3041241.001.69588
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.072
Well Within Noise
00.1610.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Westerlo62.00%16.00%12.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%—1.00%
RWDM 478.00%18.00%11.00%20.00%13.00%14.00%8.00%8.00%
Waasland-Beveren15.00%22.00%20.00%17.00%10.00%6.00%6.00%4.00%
Deinze7.00%22.00%18.00%20.00%12.00%10.00%9.00%2.00%
Lierse Kempenzonen—3.00%6.00%5.00%18.00%15.00%19.00%34.00%
Lommel2.00%6.00%16.00%8.00%10.00%22.00%19.00%17.00%
Royal Excel Mouscron5.00%9.00%10.00%16.00%22.00%12.00%18.00%8.00%
Excelsior Virton1.00%4.00%7.00%9.00%12.00%20.00%21.00%26.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Lost promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Westerlo 62.00% 16.00% 21.00% 1.00%
Waasland-Beveren 15.00% 22.00% 59.00% 4.00%
Deinze 7.00% 22.00% 69.00% 2.00%
RWDM 47 8.00% 18.00% 66.00% 8.00%
Royal Excel Mouscron 5.00% 9.00% 78.00% 8.00%
Lommel 2.00% 6.00% 75.00% 17.00%
Excelsior Virton 1.00% 4.00% 69.00% 26.00%
Lierse Kempenzonen — 3.00% 63.00% 34.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2021-08-13 Lierse Kempenzonen D 1-158.4 1450 1402 47.52% 23.23% 29.25%+0.24 -1.1 1
2021-08-13 @ Deinze D 1-158.4 1402 1450 29.25% 23.23% 47.52%-0.24 +1.1 1
2021-08-14 Royal Excel Mouscron W 3-154.3 1466 1535 31.41% 23.33% 45.25%-0.13 +21.5 3
2021-08-14 @ RWDM 47 L 1-354.3 1535 1466 45.25% 23.33% 31.41%+0.13 -21.5 0
2021-08-15 Waasland-Beveren L 2-359.4 1465 1500 35.98% 23.45% 40.57%-0.02 -9.8 0
2021-08-15 @ Lommel W 3-259.4 1500 1465 40.57% 23.45% 35.98%+0.02 +9.8 3
2021-08-15 Westerlo L 0-249.2 1532 1506 44.51% 23.36% 32.13%+0.17 -24.5 0
2021-08-15 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-049.2 1506 1532 32.13% 23.36% 44.51%-0.17 +24.5 3
2021-08-20 RWDM 47 D 0-059.6 1531 1488 46.82% 23.26% 29.91%+0.23 -1.2 4
2021-08-20 @ Westerlo D 0-059.6 1488 1531 29.91% 23.26% 46.82%-0.23 +1.2 4
2021-08-21 Lommel L 0-152.1 1514 1455 48.92% 23.14% 27.93%+0.28 -14.1 0
2021-08-21 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 1-052.1 1455 1514 27.93% 23.14% 48.92%-0.28 +14.1 3
2021-08-22 Deinze L 0-247.6 1510 1449 49.08% 23.13% 27.79%+0.28 -26.6 3
2021-08-22 @ Waasland-Beveren W 2-047.6 1449 1510 27.79% 23.13% 49.08%-0.28 +26.6 4
2021-08-22 Excelsior Virton W 2-046.1 1403 1507 27.14% 23.09% 49.78%-0.24 +26.9 4
2021-08-22 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-246.1 1507 1403 49.78% 23.09% 27.14%+0.24 -26.9 0
2021-08-27 Excelsior Virton D 0-057.7 1489 1480 42.18% 23.43% 34.39%+0.12 -0.5 5
2021-08-27 @ RWDM 47 D 0-057.7 1480 1489 34.39% 23.43% 42.18%-0.12 +0.5 1
2021-08-28 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-255.3 1529 1430 53.80% 22.74% 23.46%+0.41 +6.9 7
2021-08-28 @ Westerlo L 2-355.3 1430 1529 23.46% 22.74% 53.80%-0.41 -6.9 4
2021-08-29 Deinze D 2-267.5 1469 1476 39.98% 23.46% 36.56%+0.07 -0.2 4
2021-08-29 @ Lommel D 2-267.5 1476 1469 36.56% 23.46% 39.98%-0.07 +0.2 5
2021-08-29 Waasland-Beveren L 0-445.0 1500 1483 43.32% 23.40% 33.28%+0.14 -45.4 0
2021-08-29 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 4-045.0 1483 1500 33.28% 23.40% 43.32%-0.14 +45.4 6
2021-09-10 Royal Excel Mouscron W 3-147.9 1476 1454 43.97% 23.38% 32.65%+0.16 +16.6 8
2021-09-10 @ Deinze L 1-347.9 1454 1476 32.65% 23.38% 43.97%-0.16 -16.6 0
2021-09-11 Lommel W 2-152.8 1481 1469 42.68% 23.42% 33.91%+0.13 +9.9 4
2021-09-11 @ Excelsior Virton L 1-252.8 1469 1481 33.91% 23.42% 42.68%-0.13 -9.9 4
2021-09-12 RWDM 47 W 4-148.2 1423 1488 31.93% 23.35% 44.72%-0.12 +30.1 7
2021-09-12 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-448.2 1488 1423 44.72% 23.35% 31.93%+0.12 -30.1 5
2021-09-12 Westerlo L 0-248.8 1528 1536 39.85% 23.46% 36.69%+0.06 -22.4 6
2021-09-12 @ Waasland-Beveren W 2-048.8 1536 1528 36.69% 23.46% 39.85%-0.06 +22.4 10
2021-09-17 Waasland-Beveren L 1-349.6 1458 1506 34.25% 23.42% 42.33%-0.06 -17.2 5
2021-09-17 @ RWDM 47 W 3-149.6 1506 1458 42.33% 23.42% 34.25%+0.06 +17.2 9
2021-09-18 Excelsior Virton D 1-160.8 1438 1491 33.54% 23.41% 43.05%-0.08 +0.6 1
2021-09-18 @ Royal Excel Mouscron D 1-160.8 1491 1438 43.05% 23.41% 33.54%+0.08 -0.6 5
2021-09-19 Deinze D 2-271.6 1559 1493 49.81% 23.08% 27.10%+0.30 -1.1 11
2021-09-19 @ Westerlo D 2-271.6 1493 1559 27.10% 23.08% 49.81%-0.30 +1.1 9
2021-09-19 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-147.9 1459 1453 41.74% 23.44% 34.83%+0.11 +17.5 7
2021-09-19 @ Lommel L 1-347.9 1453 1459 34.83% 23.44% 41.74%-0.11 -17.5 7
2021-09-24 Waasland-Beveren W 2-157.2 1436 1523 29.12% 23.22% 47.66%-0.19 +13.0 10
2021-09-24 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-257.2 1523 1436 47.66% 23.22% 29.12%+0.19 -13.0 9
2021-09-25 Lommel L 1-252.3 1441 1476 35.97% 23.45% 40.57%-0.02 -10.3 5
2021-09-25 @ RWDM 47 W 2-152.3 1476 1441 40.57% 23.45% 35.97%+0.02 +10.3 10
2021-09-26 Deinze D 1-162.8 1490 1494 40.48% 23.45% 36.06%+0.08 -0.3 6
2021-09-26 @ Excelsior Virton D 1-162.8 1494 1490 36.06% 23.45% 40.48%-0.08 +0.3 10
2021-09-26 Westerlo L 1-251.8 1438 1558 25.39% 22.94% 51.67%-0.29 -7.8 1
2021-09-26 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-151.8 1558 1438 51.67% 22.94% 25.39%+0.29 +7.8 14
2021-10-01 Lommel W 2-044.0 1566 1487 51.39% 22.96% 25.65%+0.34 +15.8 17
2021-10-01 @ Westerlo L 0-244.0 1487 1566 25.65% 22.96% 51.39%-0.34 -15.8 10
2021-10-02 Royal Excel Mouscron D 2-265.3 1449 1431 43.52% 23.39% 33.09%+0.15 -0.5 11
2021-10-02 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-265.3 1431 1449 33.09% 23.39% 43.52%-0.15 +0.5 2
2021-10-03 Excelsior Virton W 4-362.5 1510 1490 43.81% 23.38% 32.80%+0.15 +8.9 12
2021-10-03 @ Waasland-Beveren L 3-462.5 1490 1510 32.80% 23.38% 43.81%-0.15 -8.9 6
2021-10-03 RWDM 47 L 1-256.5 1494 1431 49.44% 23.11% 27.45%+0.29 -13.4 10
2021-10-03 @ Deinze W 2-156.5 1431 1494 27.45% 23.11% 49.44%-0.29 +13.4 8
2021-10-15 Waasland-Beveren D 0-058.8 1481 1519 35.49% 23.45% 41.06%-0.03 +0.4 11
2021-10-15 @ Deinze D 0-058.8 1519 1481 41.06% 23.45% 35.49%+0.03 -0.4 13
2021-10-16 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-151.2 1481 1448 45.46% 23.33% 31.22%+0.19 +9.2 9
2021-10-16 @ Excelsior Virton L 1-251.2 1448 1481 31.22% 23.33% 45.46%-0.19 -9.2 11
2021-10-17 Royal Excel Mouscron W 3-038.0 1471 1431 46.42% 23.28% 30.30%+0.22 +26.2 13
2021-10-17 @ Lommel L 0-338.0 1431 1471 30.30% 23.28% 46.42%-0.22 -26.2 2
2021-10-17 Westerlo L 1-252.3 1444 1581 23.47% 22.74% 53.79%-0.35 -7.3 8
2021-10-17 @ RWDM 47 W 2-152.3 1581 1444 53.79% 22.74% 23.47%+0.35 +7.3 20
2021-10-22 RWDM 47 D 1-158.1 1405 1437 36.42% 23.46% 40.12%-0.01 +0.2 3
2021-10-22 @ Royal Excel Mouscron D 1-158.1 1437 1405 40.12% 23.46% 36.42%+0.01 -0.2 9
2021-10-23 Deinze D 2-266.7 1439 1481 35.06% 23.44% 41.50%-0.04 +0.3 12
2021-10-23 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-266.7 1481 1439 41.50% 23.44% 35.06%+0.04 -0.3 12
2021-10-24 Excelsior Virton W 2-044.2 1589 1490 53.70% 22.75% 23.56%+0.40 +14.6 23
2021-10-24 @ Westerlo L 0-244.2 1490 1589 23.56% 22.75% 53.70%-0.40 -14.6 9
2021-10-24 Lommel W 2-154.9 1519 1497 43.99% 23.38% 32.63%+0.16 +9.6 16
2021-10-24 @ Waasland-Beveren L 1-254.9 1497 1519 32.63% 23.38% 43.99%-0.16 -9.6 13
2021-10-29 Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-245.3 1476 1405 50.36% 23.04% 26.60%+0.31 -27.2 9
2021-10-29 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-045.3 1405 1476 26.60% 23.04% 50.36%-0.31 +27.2 6
2021-10-30 Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-355.1 1528 1439 52.60% 22.86% 24.54%+0.37 -24.5 16
2021-10-30 @ Waasland-Beveren W 3-155.1 1439 1528 24.54% 22.86% 52.60%-0.37 +24.5 15
2021-10-31 RWDM 47 L 2-361.5 1488 1437 47.87% 23.21% 28.92%+0.25 -12.3 13
2021-10-31 @ Lommel W 3-261.5 1437 1488 28.92% 23.21% 47.87%-0.25 +12.3 12
2021-10-31 Westerlo W 2-163.0 1481 1603 25.03% 22.90% 52.06%-0.30 +14.0 15
2021-10-31 @ Deinze L 1-263.0 1603 1481 52.06% 22.90% 25.03%+0.30 -14.0 23
2021-11-05 Excelsior Virton L 1-351.3 1475 1448 44.67% 23.36% 31.97%+0.17 -21.3 13
2021-11-05 @ Lommel W 3-151.3 1448 1475 31.97% 23.36% 44.67%-0.17 +21.3 12
2021-11-06 Deinze W 2-045.1 1432 1495 32.28% 23.37% 44.35%-0.11 +24.4 9
2021-11-06 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-245.1 1495 1432 44.35% 23.37% 32.28%+0.11 -24.4 15
2021-11-07 Lierse Kempenzonen D 3-370.5 1449 1464 38.85% 23.47% 37.68%+0.04 -0.0 13
2021-11-07 @ RWDM 47 D 3-370.5 1464 1449 37.68% 23.47% 38.85%-0.04 +0.1 16
2021-11-07 Waasland-Beveren D 1-166.9 1589 1504 52.15% 22.90% 24.95%+0.36 -1.7 24
2021-11-07 @ Westerlo D 1-166.9 1504 1589 24.95% 22.90% 52.15%-0.36 +1.7 17
2021-11-19 Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-247.3 1506 1457 47.63% 23.22% 29.15%+0.25 -25.9 17
2021-11-19 @ Waasland-Beveren W 2-047.3 1457 1506 29.15% 23.22% 47.63%-0.25 +25.9 12
2021-11-20 Westerlo L 1-546.1 1464 1587 24.93% 22.89% 52.18%-0.30 -24.3 16
2021-11-20 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 5-146.1 1587 1464 52.18% 22.89% 24.93%+0.30 +24.3 27
2021-11-21 Lommel D 3-370.9 1470 1454 43.25% 23.40% 33.35%+0.14 -0.4 16
2021-11-21 @ Deinze D 3-370.9 1454 1470 33.35% 23.40% 43.25%-0.14 +0.4 14
2021-11-21 RWDM 47 L 0-244.7 1470 1449 43.86% 23.38% 32.75%+0.16 -24.2 12
2021-11-21 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-044.7 1449 1470 32.75% 23.38% 43.86%-0.16 +24.2 16
2021-11-26 Waasland-Beveren L 0-340.6 1445 1480 36.10% 23.45% 40.45%-0.02 -30.1 12
2021-11-26 @ Excelsior Virton W 3-040.6 1480 1445 40.45% 23.45% 36.10%+0.02 +30.1 20
2021-11-27 Westerlo L 0-147.3 1454 1612 21.44% 22.47% 56.09%-0.41 -7.2 14
2021-11-27 @ Lommel W 1-047.3 1612 1454 56.09% 22.47% 21.44%+0.41 +7.2 30
2021-11-28 Deinze D 2-267.5 1473 1470 41.43% 23.44% 35.13%+0.10 -0.3 17
2021-11-28 @ RWDM 47 D 2-267.5 1470 1473 35.13% 23.44% 41.43%-0.10 +0.3 17
2021-11-28 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-150.6 1483 1440 46.83% 23.26% 29.91%+0.23 +8.9 15
2021-11-28 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 1-250.6 1440 1483 29.91% 23.26% 46.83%-0.23 -8.9 16
2021-12-03 Excelsior Virton W 3-036.9 1470 1415 48.37% 23.18% 28.45%+0.26 +24.9 20
2021-12-03 @ Deinze L 0-336.9 1415 1470 28.45% 23.18% 48.37%-0.26 -24.9 12
2021-12-04 RWDM 47 L 2-363.1 1510 1473 46.07% 23.30% 30.63%+0.21 -11.9 20
2021-12-04 @ Waasland-Beveren W 3-263.1 1473 1510 30.63% 23.30% 46.07%-0.21 +12.0 20
2021-12-05 Lommel D 2-265.3 1431 1447 38.64% 23.47% 37.89%+0.04 -0.0 17
2021-12-05 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-265.3 1447 1431 37.89% 23.47% 38.64%-0.04 +0.0 15
2021-12-05 Royal Excel Mouscron W 4-362.5 1619 1491 56.96% 22.36% 20.68%+0.50 +6.0 33
2021-12-05 @ Westerlo L 3-462.5 1491 1619 20.68% 22.36% 56.96%-0.50 -6.0 15
2021-12-11 Lommel W 2-151.1 1485 1447 46.21% 23.29% 30.49%+0.21 +9.1 18
2021-12-11 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 1-251.1 1447 1485 30.49% 23.29% 46.21%-0.21 -9.1 15
2021-12-12 Deinze W 4-148.3 1498 1495 41.39% 23.44% 35.17%+0.10 +24.9 23
2021-12-12 @ Waasland-Beveren L 1-448.3 1495 1498 35.17% 23.44% 41.39%-0.10 -24.9 20
2021-12-12 Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-263.7 1390 1431 35.27% 23.44% 41.28%-0.04 +0.3 13
2021-12-12 @ Excelsior Virton D 2-263.7 1431 1390 41.28% 23.44% 35.27%+0.04 -0.3 18
2021-12-17 Waasland-Beveren D 1-162.0 1438 1523 29.43% 23.24% 47.33%-0.18 +1.1 16
2021-12-17 @ Lommel D 1-162.0 1523 1438 47.33% 23.24% 29.43%+0.18 -1.1 24
2021-12-18 Royal Excel Mouscron D 2-268.2 1470 1494 37.51% 23.47% 39.03%+0.01 +0.1 21
2021-12-18 @ Deinze D 2-268.2 1494 1470 39.03% 23.47% 37.51%-0.01 -0.1 19
2021-12-19 Excelsior Virton D 1-164.9 1625 1391 67.01% 20.35% 12.64%+0.84 -3.7 34
2021-12-19 @ Westerlo D 1-164.9 1391 1625 12.64% 20.35% 67.01%-0.84 +3.7 14
2021-12-19 RWDM 47 L 0-145.6 1430 1485 33.36% 23.40% 43.24%-0.08 -10.3 18
2021-12-19 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-045.6 1485 1430 43.24% 23.40% 33.36%+0.08 +10.3 23
2022-01-21 Lommel W 2-040.5 1495 1439 48.51% 23.17% 28.32%+0.27 +17.1 26
2022-01-21 @ RWDM 47 L 0-240.5 1439 1495 28.32% 23.17% 48.51%-0.27 -17.1 16
2022-01-23 Lierse Kempenzonen D 0-055.9 1494 1420 50.83% 23.01% 26.16%+0.33 -1.7 20
2022-01-23 @ Royal Excel Mouscron D 0-055.9 1420 1494 26.16% 23.01% 50.83%-0.33 +1.7 19
2022-01-23 Waasland-Beveren L 0-436.8 1394 1522 24.51% 22.85% 52.64%-0.32 -28.7 14
2022-01-23 @ Excelsior Virton W 4-036.8 1522 1394 52.64% 22.85% 24.51%+0.32 +28.8 27
2022-01-25 Westerlo L 0-247.0 1512 1621 26.54% 23.04% 50.42%-0.26 -16.2 26
2022-01-25 @ RWDM 47 W 2-047.0 1621 1512 50.42% 23.04% 26.54%+0.26 +16.2 37
2022-01-28 Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-145.7 1422 1422 41.02% 23.45% 35.53%+0.09 -12.2 16
2022-01-28 @ Lommel W 1-045.7 1422 1422 35.53% 23.45% 41.02%-0.09 +12.2 22
2022-01-29 Excelsior Virton W 2-145.7 1470 1366 54.42% 22.67% 22.91%+0.42 +7.1 24
2022-01-29 @ Deinze L 1-245.7 1366 1470 22.91% 22.67% 54.42%-0.42 -7.2 14
2022-01-30 Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-044.6 1496 1493 41.44% 23.44% 35.12%+0.10 +20.3 29
2022-01-30 @ RWDM 47 L 0-244.6 1493 1496 35.12% 23.44% 41.44%-0.10 -20.3 20
2022-01-30 Westerlo W 2-164.8 1551 1637 29.17% 23.22% 47.61%-0.19 +13.0 30
2022-01-30 @ Waasland-Beveren L 1-264.8 1637 1551 47.61% 23.22% 29.17%+0.19 -13.0 37
2022-02-04 Deinze D 1-160.2 1434 1477 34.83% 23.44% 41.73%-0.05 +0.4 23
2022-02-04 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 1-160.2 1477 1434 41.73% 23.44% 34.83%+0.05 -0.4 25
2022-02-05 Waasland-Beveren W 3-048.2 1472 1563 28.66% 23.19% 48.14%-0.20 +38.0 23
2022-02-05 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-348.2 1563 1472 48.14% 23.19% 28.66%+0.20 -38.0 30
2022-02-06 Lommel W 3-037.1 1625 1410 65.36% 20.78% 13.86%+0.77 +13.0 40
2022-02-06 @ Westerlo L 0-337.1 1410 1625 13.86% 20.78% 65.36%-0.77 -13.0 16
2022-02-06 RWDM 47 L 0-140.5 1358 1516 21.41% 22.47% 56.12%-0.41 -7.1 14
2022-02-06 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-040.5 1516 1358 56.12% 22.47% 21.41%+0.41 +7.1 32
2022-02-09 Deinze L 0-354.2 1638 1477 60.39% 21.83% 17.78%+0.60 -46.5 40
2022-02-09 @ Westerlo W 3-054.2 1477 1638 17.78% 21.83% 60.39%-0.60 +46.5 28
2022-02-11 Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-152.9 1525 1434 52.85% 22.83% 24.31%+0.38 -15.0 30
2022-02-11 @ Waasland-Beveren W 1-052.9 1434 1525 24.31% 22.83% 52.85%-0.38 +15.1 26
2022-02-12 Royal Excel Mouscron W 1-049.8 1591 1510 51.60% 22.94% 25.45%+0.35 +8.3 43
2022-02-12 @ Westerlo L 0-149.8 1510 1591 25.45% 22.94% 51.60%-0.35 -8.3 23
2022-02-13 Deinze W 1-051.1 1523 1523 40.97% 23.45% 35.58%+0.09 +10.9 35
2022-02-13 @ RWDM 47 L 0-151.1 1523 1523 35.58% 23.45% 40.97%-0.09 -10.9 28
2022-02-13 Excelsior Virton W 3-033.9 1397 1351 47.17% 23.25% 29.58%+0.23 +25.7 19
2022-02-13 @ Lommel L 0-333.9 1351 1397 29.58% 23.25% 47.17%-0.23 -25.7 14
2022-02-19 RWDM 47 W 1-052.1 1510 1534 37.57% 23.47% 38.96%+0.01 +11.7 33
2022-02-19 @ Waasland-Beveren L 0-152.1 1534 1510 38.96% 23.47% 37.57%-0.01 -11.7 35
2022-02-20 Excelsior Virton W 2-143.2 1502 1326 61.92% 21.54% 16.53%+0.65 +5.3 26
2022-02-20 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 1-243.2 1326 1502 16.53% 21.54% 61.92%-0.65 -5.3 14
2022-02-20 Lommel D 1-161.2 1513 1423 52.71% 22.85% 24.44%+0.38 -1.8 29
2022-02-20 @ Deinze D 1-161.2 1423 1513 24.44% 22.85% 52.71%-0.38 +1.8 20
2022-02-25 Waasland-Beveren W 2-156.4 1599 1522 51.18% 22.98% 25.84%+0.34 +7.9 46
2022-02-25 @ Westerlo L 1-256.4 1522 1599 25.84% 22.98% 51.18%-0.34 -7.9 33
2022-02-26 Deinze L 0-234.0 1320 1511 18.46% 21.97% 59.57%-0.52 -11.8 14
2022-02-26 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-034.0 1511 1320 59.57% 21.97% 18.46%+0.52 +11.8 32
2022-02-27 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-147.4 1523 1449 50.69% 23.02% 26.29%+0.32 +13.9 38
2022-02-27 @ RWDM 47 L 1-347.4 1449 1523 26.29% 23.02% 50.69%-0.32 -13.9 26
2022-02-27 Royal Excel Mouscron D 0-056.4 1424 1507 29.67% 23.25% 47.08%-0.18 +1.2 21
2022-02-27 @ Lommel D 0-056.4 1507 1424 47.08% 23.25% 29.67%+0.18 -1.2 27
2022-03-04 Westerlo L 1-257.8 1523 1607 29.45% 23.24% 47.31%-0.18 -8.8 32
2022-03-04 @ Deinze W 2-157.8 1607 1523 47.31% 23.24% 29.45%+0.18 +8.8 49
2022-03-05 Lommel L 0-242.4 1435 1426 42.35% 23.42% 34.23%+0.12 -23.5 26
2022-03-05 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-042.4 1426 1435 34.23% 23.42% 42.35%-0.12 +23.5 24
2022-03-06 Excelsior Virton W 3-138.5 1514 1308 64.59% 20.97% 14.44%+0.74 +8.1 36
2022-03-06 @ Waasland-Beveren L 1-338.5 1308 1514 14.44% 20.97% 64.59%-0.74 -8.1 14
2022-03-06 RWDM 47 L 0-151.3 1506 1537 36.65% 23.46% 39.89%-0.01 -11.1 27
2022-03-06 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 1-051.3 1537 1506 39.89% 23.46% 36.65%+0.01 +11.1 41
2022-03-11 Westerlo W 1-055.5 1300 1616 10.32% 19.34% 70.34%-0.92 +19.5 17
2022-03-11 @ Excelsior Virton L 0-155.5 1616 1300 70.34% 19.34% 10.32%+0.92 -19.5 49
2022-03-12 RWDM 47 D 0-058.8 1449 1548 27.77% 23.13% 49.09%-0.22 +1.5 25
2022-03-12 @ Lommel D 0-058.8 1548 1449 49.09% 23.13% 27.77%+0.22 -1.5 42
2022-03-13 Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-144.2 1412 1495 29.65% 23.25% 47.10%-0.18 -9.4 26
2022-03-13 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-044.2 1495 1412 47.10% 23.25% 29.65%+0.18 +9.4 30
2022-03-13 Waasland-Beveren D 3-375.0 1514 1522 39.77% 23.46% 36.77%+0.06 -0.1 33
2022-03-13 @ Deinze D 3-375.0 1522 1514 36.77% 23.46% 39.77%-0.06 +0.1 37
2022-03-16 Westerlo W 1-056.2 1403 1597 18.16% 21.91% 59.93%-0.53 +16.9 29
2022-03-16 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-156.2 1597 1403 59.93% 21.91% 18.16%+0.53 -16.9 49
2022-03-18 Deinze L 1-257.1 1504 1514 39.68% 23.46% 36.86%+0.06 -11.2 30
2022-03-18 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-157.1 1514 1504 36.86% 23.46% 39.68%-0.06 +11.2 36
2022-03-19 Lommel D 1-162.5 1522 1451 50.51% 23.03% 26.46%+0.32 -1.5 38
2022-03-19 @ Waasland-Beveren D 1-162.5 1451 1522 26.46% 23.03% 50.51%-0.32 +1.5 26
2022-03-20 Excelsior Virton W 3-030.9 1546 1320 66.35% 20.53% 13.12%+0.81 +12.3 45
2022-03-20 @ RWDM 47 L 0-330.9 1320 1546 13.12% 20.53% 66.35%-0.81 -12.4 17
2022-03-20 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-039.3 1580 1419 60.36% 21.83% 17.81%+0.60 +11.4 52
2022-03-20 @ Westerlo L 0-239.3 1419 1580 17.81% 21.83% 60.36%-0.60 -11.4 29
2022-04-01 Waasland-Beveren W 2-047.0 1408 1521 26.11% 23.00% 50.88%-0.27 +27.4 32
2022-04-01 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-247.0 1521 1408 50.88% 23.00% 26.11%+0.27 -27.4 38
2022-04-02 Westerlo W 2-162.1 1452 1591 23.29% 22.72% 53.99%-0.35 +14.5 29
2022-04-02 @ Lommel L 1-262.1 1591 1452 53.99% 22.72% 23.29%+0.35 -14.5 52
2022-04-03 Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-045.5 1308 1493 18.87% 22.05% 59.09%-0.50 +31.4 20
2022-04-03 @ Excelsior Virton L 0-245.5 1493 1308 59.09% 22.05% 18.87%+0.50 -31.4 30
2022-04-03 RWDM 47 W 3-047.6 1525 1559 36.18% 23.46% 40.37%-0.02 +32.9 39
2022-04-03 @ Deinze L 0-347.6 1559 1525 40.37% 23.46% 36.18%+0.02 -32.9 45
2022-04-08 Lommel L 2-350.9 1339 1467 24.48% 22.85% 52.67%-0.32 -7.2 20
2022-04-08 @ Excelsior Virton W 3-250.9 1467 1339 52.67% 22.85% 24.48%+0.32 +7.2 32
2022-04-08 Westerlo L 2-647.6 1462 1577 25.90% 22.98% 51.12%-0.28 -21.3 30
2022-04-08 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 6-247.6 1577 1462 51.12% 22.98% 25.90%+0.28 +21.3 55
2022-04-09 Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-260.8 1558 1435 56.39% 22.43% 21.17%+0.48 -15.0 39
2022-04-09 @ Deinze W 2-160.8 1435 1558 21.17% 22.43% 56.39%-0.48 +15.0 35
2022-04-09 Waasland-Beveren W 2-154.6 1526 1493 45.41% 23.33% 31.26%+0.19 +9.3 48
2022-04-09 @ RWDM 47 L 1-254.6 1493 1526 31.26% 23.33% 45.41%-0.19 -9.3 38
2022-04-16 Deinze W 2-158.6 1474 1543 31.45% 23.34% 45.21%-0.13 +12.4 35
2022-04-16 @ Lommel L 1-258.6 1543 1474 45.21% 23.34% 31.45%+0.13 -12.4 39
2022-04-16 RWDM 47 D 2-274.3 1598 1535 49.42% 23.11% 27.47%+0.29 -1.0 56
2022-04-16 @ Westerlo D 2-274.3 1535 1598 27.47% 23.11% 49.42%-0.29 +1.0 49
2022-04-17 Excelsior Virton D 1-156.9 1450 1332 56.01% 22.48% 21.51%+0.47 -2.2 36
2022-04-17 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 1-156.9 1332 1450 21.51% 22.48% 56.01%-0.47 +2.2 21
2022-04-17 Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-040.6 1484 1441 46.92% 23.26% 29.82%+0.23 +17.8 41
2022-04-17 @ Waasland-Beveren L 0-240.6 1441 1484 29.82% 23.26% 46.92%-0.23 -17.8 30

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2022-04-23 Seraing L 0-1 1536 1477 48.91% 23.15% 27.95%+0.28 -14.1 0-1
2022-04-23 @ RWDM 47 W 1-0 1477 1536 27.95% 23.15% 48.91%-0.28 +14.1 1-0
2022-04-30 RWDM 47 D 0-0 1491 1522 36.58% 23.46% 39.96%-0.01 +0.2 1-0-1
2022-04-30 @ Seraing D 0-0 1522 1491 39.96% 23.46% 36.58%+0.01 -0.2 0-1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-03-11 10.32% @ Excelsior Virton 1300 1 Westerlo 1616 0
2 2022-02-09 17.78% Deinze 1477 3 @ Westerlo 1638 0
3 2022-03-16 18.16% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1403 1 Westerlo 1597 0
4 2022-04-03 18.87% @ Excelsior Virton 1308 2 Royal Excel Mouscron 1493 0
5 2022-04-09 21.17% Lierse Kempenzonen 1435 2 @ Deinze 1558 1
6 2022-04-02 23.29% @ Lommel 1452 2 Westerlo 1591 1
7 2022-02-11 24.31% Lierse Kempenzonen 1434 1 @ Waasland-Beveren 1525 0
8 2021-10-30 24.54% Lierse Kempenzonen 1439 3 @ Waasland-Beveren 1528 1
9 2021-10-31 25.03% @ Deinze 1481 2 Westerlo 1603 1
10 2022-04-01 26.11% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1408 2 Waasland-Beveren 1521 0
11 2021-10-29 26.60% Royal Excel Mouscron 1405 2 @ Excelsior Virton 1476 0
12 2021-08-22 27.14% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1403 2 Excelsior Virton 1507 0
13 2021-10-03 27.45% RWDM 47 1431 2 @ Deinze 1494 1
14 2021-08-22 27.79% Deinze 1449 2 @ Waasland-Beveren 1510 0
15 2021-08-21 27.93% Lommel 1455 1 @ Royal Excel Mouscron 1514 0
16 2022-02-05 28.66% @ Royal Excel Mouscron 1472 3 Waasland-Beveren 1563 0
17 2021-10-31 28.92% RWDM 47 1437 3 @ Lommel 1488 2
18 2021-09-24 29.12% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1436 2 Waasland-Beveren 1523 1
19 2021-11-19 29.15% Royal Excel Mouscron 1457 2 @ Waasland-Beveren 1506 0
20 2022-01-30 29.17% @ Waasland-Beveren 1551 2 Westerlo 1637 1
21 2021-12-04 30.63% RWDM 47 1473 3 @ Waasland-Beveren 1510 2
22 2021-08-14 31.41% @ RWDM 47 1466 3 Royal Excel Mouscron 1535 1
23 2022-04-16 31.45% @ Lommel 1474 2 Deinze 1543 1
24 2021-09-12 31.93% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1423 4 RWDM 47 1488 1
25 2021-11-05 31.97% Excelsior Virton 1448 3 @ Lommel 1475 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-02-09 46.52 Deinze 3 1477 17.78% @ Westerlo 0 1638 60.39% 21.83%
2 2021-08-29 45.42 Waasland-Beveren 4 1483 33.28% @ Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1500 43.32% 23.40%
3 2022-02-05 37.98 @ Royal Excel Mouscron 3 1472 28.66% Waasland-Beveren 0 1563 48.14% 23.19%
4 2022-04-03 32.87 @ Deinze 3 1525 36.18% RWDM 47 0 1559 40.37% 23.46%
5 2022-04-03 31.39 @ Excelsior Virton 2 1308 18.87% Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1493 59.09% 22.05%
6 2021-11-26 30.14 Waasland-Beveren 3 1480 40.45% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1445 36.10% 23.45%
7 2021-09-12 30.10 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 4 1423 31.93% RWDM 47 1 1488 44.72% 23.35%
8 2022-01-23 28.75 Waasland-Beveren 4 1522 52.64% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1394 24.51% 22.85%
9 2022-04-01 27.43 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1408 26.11% Waasland-Beveren 0 1521 50.88% 23.00%
10 2021-10-29 27.19 Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1405 26.60% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1476 50.36% 23.04%
11 2021-08-22 26.92 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1403 27.14% Excelsior Virton 0 1507 49.78% 23.09%
12 2021-08-22 26.58 Deinze 2 1449 27.79% @ Waasland-Beveren 0 1510 49.08% 23.13%
13 2021-10-17 26.24 @ Lommel 3 1471 46.42% Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1431 30.30% 23.28%
14 2021-11-19 25.91 Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1457 29.15% @ Waasland-Beveren 0 1506 47.63% 23.22%
15 2022-02-13 25.74 @ Lommel 3 1397 47.17% Excelsior Virton 0 1351 29.58% 23.25%
16 2021-12-03 24.93 @ Deinze 3 1470 48.37% Excelsior Virton 0 1415 28.45% 23.18%
17 2021-12-12 24.91 @ Waasland-Beveren 4 1498 41.39% Deinze 1 1495 35.17% 23.44%
18 2021-08-15 24.48 Westerlo 2 1506 32.13% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1532 44.51% 23.36%
19 2021-10-30 24.47 Lierse Kempenzonen 3 1439 24.54% @ Waasland-Beveren 1 1528 52.60% 22.86%
20 2021-11-06 24.41 @ Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1432 32.28% Deinze 0 1495 44.35% 23.37%
21 2021-11-20 24.30 Westerlo 5 1587 52.18% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1 1464 24.93% 22.89%
22 2021-11-21 24.19 RWDM 47 2 1449 32.75% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1470 43.86% 23.38%
23 2022-03-05 23.51 Lommel 2 1426 34.23% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1435 42.35% 23.42%
24 2021-09-12 22.40 Westerlo 2 1536 36.69% @ Waasland-Beveren 0 1528 39.85% 23.46%
25 2021-08-14 21.50 @ RWDM 47 3 1466 31.41% Royal Excel Mouscron 1 1535 45.25% 23.33%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-03-13 75.0 @ Deinze 3 1514 39.77% Waasland-Beveren 3 1522 36.77% 23.46%
2 2022-04-16 74.3 @ Westerlo 2 1598 49.42% RWDM 47 2 1535 27.47% 23.11%
3 2021-09-19 71.6 @ Westerlo 2 1559 49.81% Deinze 2 1493 27.10% 23.08%
4 2021-11-21 70.9 @ Deinze 3 1470 43.25% Lommel 3 1454 33.35% 23.40%
5 2021-11-07 70.5 @ RWDM 47 3 1449 38.85% Lierse Kempenzonen 3 1464 37.68% 23.47%
6 2021-12-18 68.2 @ Deinze 2 1470 37.51% Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1494 39.03% 23.47%
7 2021-08-29 67.5 @ Lommel 2 1469 39.98% Deinze 2 1476 36.56% 23.46%
8 2021-11-28 67.5 @ RWDM 47 2 1473 41.43% Deinze 2 1470 35.13% 23.44%
9 2021-11-07 66.9 @ Westerlo 1 1589 52.15% Waasland-Beveren 1 1504 24.95% 22.90%
10 2021-10-23 66.7 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1439 35.06% Deinze 2 1481 41.50% 23.44%
11 2021-10-02 65.3 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1449 43.52% Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1431 33.09% 23.39%
12 2021-12-05 65.3 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1431 38.64% Lommel 2 1447 37.89% 23.47%
13 2021-12-19 64.9 @ Westerlo 1 1625 67.01% Excelsior Virton 1 1391 12.64% 20.35%
14 2022-01-30 64.8 @ Waasland-Beveren 2 1551 29.17% Westerlo 1 1637 47.61% 23.22%
15 2021-12-12 63.7 @ Excelsior Virton 2 1390 35.27% Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1431 41.28% 23.44%
16 2021-12-04 63.1 RWDM 47 3 1473 30.63% @ Waasland-Beveren 2 1510 46.07% 23.30%
17 2021-10-31 63.0 @ Deinze 2 1481 25.03% Westerlo 1 1603 52.06% 22.90%
18 2021-09-26 62.8 @ Excelsior Virton 1 1490 40.48% Deinze 1 1494 36.06% 23.45%
19 2021-10-03 62.5 @ Waasland-Beveren 4 1510 43.81% Excelsior Virton 3 1490 32.80% 23.38%
20 2021-12-05 62.5 @ Westerlo 4 1619 56.96% Royal Excel Mouscron 3 1491 20.68% 22.36%
21 2022-03-19 62.5 @ Waasland-Beveren 1 1522 50.51% Lommel 1 1451 26.46% 23.03%
22 2022-04-02 62.1 @ Lommel 2 1452 23.29% Westerlo 1 1591 53.99% 22.72%
23 2021-12-17 62.0 @ Lommel 1 1438 29.43% Waasland-Beveren 1 1523 47.33% 23.24%
24 2021-10-31 61.5 RWDM 47 3 1437 28.92% @ Lommel 2 1488 47.87% 23.21%
25 2022-02-20 61.2 @ Deinze 1 1513 52.71% Lommel 1 1423 24.44% 22.85%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-03-20 30.9 @ RWDM 47 3 1546 66.35% Excelsior Virton 0 1320 13.12% 20.53%
2 2022-02-13 33.9 @ Lommel 3 1397 47.17% Excelsior Virton 0 1351 29.58% 23.25%
3 2022-02-26 34.0 Deinze 2 1511 59.57% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1320 18.46% 21.97%
4 2022-01-23 36.8 Waasland-Beveren 4 1522 52.64% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1394 24.51% 22.85%
5 2021-12-03 36.9 @ Deinze 3 1470 48.37% Excelsior Virton 0 1415 28.45% 23.18%
6 2022-02-06 37.1 @ Westerlo 3 1625 65.36% Lommel 0 1410 13.86% 20.78%
7 2021-10-17 38.0 @ Lommel 3 1471 46.42% Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1431 30.30% 23.28%
8 2022-03-06 38.5 @ Waasland-Beveren 3 1514 64.59% Excelsior Virton 1 1308 14.44% 20.97%
9 2022-03-20 39.3 @ Westerlo 2 1580 60.36% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1419 17.81% 21.83%
10 2022-01-21 40.5 @ RWDM 47 2 1495 48.51% Lommel 0 1439 28.32% 23.17%
11 2022-02-06 40.5 RWDM 47 1 1516 56.12% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1358 21.41% 22.47%
12 2021-11-26 40.6 Waasland-Beveren 3 1480 40.45% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1445 36.10% 23.45%
13 2022-04-17 40.6 @ Waasland-Beveren 2 1484 46.92% Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1441 29.82% 23.26%
14 2022-03-05 42.4 Lommel 2 1426 34.23% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1435 42.35% 23.42%
15 2022-02-20 43.2 @ Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1502 61.92% Excelsior Virton 1 1326 16.53% 21.54%
16 2021-10-01 44.0 @ Westerlo 2 1566 51.39% Lommel 0 1487 25.65% 22.96%
17 2021-10-24 44.2 @ Westerlo 2 1589 53.70% Excelsior Virton 0 1490 23.56% 22.75%
18 2022-03-13 44.2 Royal Excel Mouscron 1 1495 47.10% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1412 29.65% 23.25%
19 2022-01-30 44.6 @ RWDM 47 2 1496 41.44% Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1493 35.12% 23.44%
20 2021-11-21 44.7 RWDM 47 2 1449 32.75% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1470 43.86% 23.38%
21 2021-08-29 45.0 Waasland-Beveren 4 1483 33.28% @ Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1500 43.32% 23.40%
22 2021-11-06 45.1 @ Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1432 32.28% Deinze 0 1495 44.35% 23.37%
23 2021-10-29 45.3 Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1405 26.60% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1476 50.36% 23.04%
24 2022-04-03 45.5 @ Excelsior Virton 2 1308 18.87% Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1493 59.09% 22.05%
25 2021-12-19 45.6 RWDM 47 1 1485 43.24% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1430 33.36% 23.40%