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2022-23 Challenger Pro League Season

192 games

Final

Promoted

RWD Molenbeek

69 pts

Relegated

Excelsior Virton

14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

RWD Molenbeek

33.31 points above expected

69 points · 35.69 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Genk II

6.43 points below expected

26 points · 32.43 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 RWD Molenbeek 22 14 4 4 46 41 21 +20
2 Beveren 22 12 7 3 43 52 25 +27
3 Beerschot 22 12 2 8 38 33 28 +5
4 Club NXT 22 10 6 6 36 38 30 +8
5 Lierse Kempenzonen 22 11 3 8 36 42 42 0
6 Anderlecht II 22 9 7 6 34 42 35 +7
7 Lommel 22 10 2 10 32 33 36 -3
8 Deinze 22 9 3 10 30 29 33 -4
9 Genk II 22 5 5 12 20 28 40 -12
10 Dender 22 5 4 13 19 27 40 -13
11 Standard Liege II 22 4 7 11 19 25 43 -18
12 Excelsior Virton 22 2 8 12 14 21 38 -17
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 RWD Molenbeek Promoted 32 21 6 5 69 65 29 +36 35.69 +33.31
2 Beveren 32 20 8 4 68 76 34 +42 36.41 +31.59
3 Lommel 32 16 3 13 51 53 46 +7 29.95 +21.05
4 Club NXT 32 14 7 11 49 51 48 +3 25.29 +23.71
5 Deinze 32 15 4 13 49 49 47 +2 29.78 +19.22
6 Beerschot 32 15 4 13 49 43 41 +2 30.51 +18.49
7 Lierse Kempenzonen 32 14 4 14 46 53 59 -6 27.68 +18.32
8 Dender 32 11 6 15 39 41 47 -6 27.44 +11.56
9 Anderlecht II 32 9 10 13 37 46 56 -10 37.20 -0.20
10 Standard Liege II 32 5 12 15 27 31 60 -29 31.59 -4.59
11 Genk II 32 6 8 18 26 36 58 -22 32.43 -6.43
12 Excelsior Virton Relegated 32 5 10 17 25 32 51 -19 20.59 +4.41

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 RWD Molenbeek 69 35.69 +33.31
2 Beveren 68 36.41 +31.59
3 Club NXT 49 25.29 +23.71
4 Lommel 51 29.95 +21.05
5 Deinze 49 29.78 +19.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Genk II 26 32.43 -6.43
2 Standard Liege II 27 31.59 -4.59
3 Anderlecht II 37 37.20 -0.20
4 Excelsior Virton 25 20.59 +4.41
5 Dender 39 27.44 +11.56

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Beerschot 6 Nov 6 – Dec 11 1 in 204
2 Lommel 5 Nov 18 – Dec 17 1 in 198
3 RWD Molenbeek 7 Dec 11 – Feb 26 1 in 134
4 Club NXT 4 Nov 25 – Jan 20 1 in 107
5 Lierse Kempenzonen 4 Aug 21 – Sep 9 1 in 55

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dender 5 Nov 25 – Jan 24 1 in 243
2 Anderlecht II 5 Mar 3 – Apr 8 1 in 106
3 Deinze 4 Sep 3 – Oct 1 1 in 69
4 Standard Liege II 4 Nov 26 – Dec 17 1 in 64
5 Lommel 3 Oct 8 – Oct 23 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Club NXT 6 Sep 10 – Oct 21 1 in 56
2 Excelsior Virton 5 Aug 12 – Sep 11 1 in 51
3 Dender 7 Mar 10 – May 6 1 in 25
4 Beveren 9 Mar 4 – May 13 1 in 15
5 Lommel 5 Nov 18 – Dec 17 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Genk II 9 Mar 5 – May 12 1 in 143
2 Anderlecht II 10 Feb 26 – May 13 1 in 91
3 Standard Liege II 9 Mar 5 – May 12 1 in 66
4 Dender 8 Nov 25 – Feb 11 1 in 43
5 Excelsior Virton 13 Sep 18 – Dec 17 1 in 39

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
RWD Molenbeek 1735 69 +40 13 9.2 +3.8
Beveren 1744 68 +32 13 9.3 +3.7
Lommel 1594 51 +38 12 7.9 +4.1
Deinze 1591 49 +14 12 8.1 +3.9
Beerschot 1586 49 +5 6 6.0 -0.0
Club NXT 1557 49 -51 1 6.3 -5.3
Lierse Kempenzonen 1551 46 +1 7 5.0 +2.0
Dender 1560 39 +35 10 7.3 +2.7
Anderlecht II 1548 37 -26 2 5.7 -3.7
Standard Liege II 1473 27 -24 3 6.4 -3.4
Genk II 1482 26 -61 1 7.0 -6.0
Excelsior Virton 1425 25 -2 4 4.9 -0.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AI BEE BEV CN DEI DEN EV GI LK LOM RM SLI
Anderlecht II —
1-1-2
6.32
0-1-3
4.95
0-3-1
6.84
1-1-0
3.23
0-0-2
3.61
2-0-0
4.17
1-0-1
3.48
1-2-1
6.56
1-1-0
3.28
0-1-3
5.06
2-0-0
3.07
Beerschot
2-1-1
4.74
—
1-0-3
4.39
3-0-1
5.87
1-0-1
2.98
1-1-0
3.00
2-0-0
3.51
2-0-0
2.82
1-0-3
6.21
1-0-1
2.71
0-1-3
4.31
1-1-0
2.68
Beveren
3-1-0
6.14
3-0-1
6.70
—
2-1-1
7.47
2-0-0
3.34
2-0-0
3.56
0-2-0
4.07
1-1-0
3.53
4-0-0
7.14
1-0-1
3.12
1-2-1
5.65
1-1-0
3.13
Club NXT
1-3-0
4.26
1-0-3
5.19
1-1-2
3.64
—
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-1
2.37
1-1-0
3.33
2-0-0
2.34
2-0-2
5.86
2-0-0
2.44
2-0-2
3.85
0-2-0
2.37
Deinze
0-1-1
2.30
1-0-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.20
1-0-1
2.95
—
2-0-2
6.16
3-1-0
7.54
2-1-1
5.69
1-0-1
3.10
1-1-2
5.44
0-0-2
2.47
4-0-0
5.73
Dender
2-0-0
1.94
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.00
1-0-1
3.16
2-0-2
4.89
—
2-1-1
7.15
3-0-1
5.03
0-0-2
2.66
1-1-2
5.15
0-0-2
2.33
0-3-1
5.35
Excelsior Virton
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
2.04
0-2-0
1.51
0-1-1
2.22
0-1-3
3.57
1-1-2
3.95
—
2-1-1
3.70
0-2-0
2.04
1-0-3
3.74
0-1-1
1.65
1-1-2
3.77
Genk II
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.71
0-1-1
2.01
0-0-2
3.19
1-1-2
5.37
1-0-3
6.03
1-1-2
7.41
—
1-0-1
3.19
0-0-4
5.70
1-1-0
2.35
0-4-0
5.77
Lierse Kempenzonen
1-2-1
4.51
3-0-1
4.85
0-0-4
3.96
2-0-2
5.20
1-0-1
2.43
2-0-0
2.86
0-2-0
3.51
1-0-1
2.35
—
2-0-0
2.63
0-0-4
3.95
2-0-0
2.23
Lommel
0-1-1
2.25
1-0-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.43
0-0-2
3.10
2-1-1
5.61
2-1-1
5.90
3-0-1
7.36
4-0-0
5.36
0-0-2
2.89
—
1-0-1
2.39
2-0-2
5.79
RWD Molenbeek
3-1-0
6.03
3-1-0
6.77
1-2-1
5.40
2-0-2
7.24
2-0-0
3.06
2-0-0
3.20
1-1-0
3.93
0-1-1
3.19
4-0-0
7.14
1-0-1
3.15
—
2-0-0
3.12
Standard Liege II
0-0-2
2.46
0-1-1
2.86
0-1-1
2.41
0-2-0
3.16
0-0-4
5.32
1-3-0
5.71
2-1-1
7.33
0-4-0
5.29
0-0-2
3.30
2-0-2
5.27
0-0-2
2.43
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.88 +10.5
Allowed 0.72 -12.7
Differential 0.94 +6.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.69%7.81%5.47%2.86%1.30%0.78%22.92%
17.81%8.33%8.33%4.17%2.86%0.52%32.03%
25.47%8.33%7.29%3.91%0.52%0.26%25.78%
32.86%4.17%3.91%1.04%0.52%—12.50%
41.30%2.86%0.52%0.52%——5.21%
5+0.78%0.52%0.26%———1.56%
Total22.92%32.03%25.78%12.50%5.21%1.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.83
CV 0.81 0.81 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%3.12%9.38%—6.25%—28.12%
1—3.12%12.50%—6.25%—21.88%
26.25%3.12%15.62%3.12%——28.12%
33.12%9.38%6.25%3.12%——21.88%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%18.75%43.75%6.25%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.75 -0.31
SD 1.13 1.22 1.77
CV 0.79 0.70 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%9.38%3.12%3.12%—28.12%
112.50%6.25%9.38%———28.12%
26.25%12.50%3.12%6.25%——28.12%
33.12%3.12%6.25%———12.50%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total28.12%31.25%28.12%9.38%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.28 +0.06
SD 1.12 1.08 1.72
CV 0.84 0.85 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%—3.12%——9.38%
16.25%6.25%—3.12%——15.62%
29.38%9.38%15.62%3.12%——37.50%
39.38%—3.12%———12.50%
43.12%12.50%————15.62%
5+3.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
Total34.38%34.38%21.88%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.38 1.06 +1.31
SD 1.43 0.98 1.86
CV 0.60 0.92 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%——3.12%—18.75%
16.25%3.12%6.25%6.25%3.12%—25.00%
26.25%18.75%9.38%6.25%——40.62%
33.12%3.12%—3.12%——9.38%
4—3.12%—3.12%——6.25%
5+———————
Total21.88%37.50%15.62%18.75%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.50 +0.09
SD 1.10 1.22 1.59
CV 0.69 0.81 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%9.38%———21.88%
16.25%6.25%9.38%3.12%9.38%—34.38%
23.12%15.62%—3.12%——21.88%
33.12%3.12%9.38%———15.62%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total21.88%34.38%28.12%6.25%9.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.47 +0.06
SD 1.27 1.19 1.88
CV 0.83 0.81 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%18.75%—3.12%——25.00%
19.38%15.62%3.12%—6.25%—34.38%
29.38%9.38%—9.38%—3.12%31.25%
3——3.12%—3.12%—6.25%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total25.00%43.75%6.25%12.50%9.38%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.47 -0.19
SD 1.02 1.41 1.62
CV 0.80 0.96 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%18.75%3.12%3.12%——31.25%
16.25%15.62%12.50%15.62%——50.00%
2—3.12%6.25%———9.38%
3—3.12%—3.12%——6.25%
4———3.12%——3.12%
5+———————
Total12.50%40.62%21.88%25.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.59 -0.59
SD 0.98 1.01 1.13
CV 0.98 0.63 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%12.50%6.25%3.12%—34.38%
16.25%9.38%9.38%6.25%——31.25%
23.12%—9.38%9.38%3.12%—25.00%
3—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total15.62%21.88%34.38%21.88%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.81 -0.69
SD 1.07 1.15 1.55
CV 0.95 0.63 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%3.12%6.25%—3.12%21.88%
16.25%—9.38%3.12%3.12%3.12%25.00%
29.38%6.25%6.25%6.25%——28.12%
3—6.25%6.25%3.12%——15.62%
4—3.12%6.25%———9.38%
5+———————
Total18.75%21.88%31.25%18.75%3.12%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 1.84 -0.19
SD 1.26 1.37 2.01
CV 0.76 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%9.38%3.12%—3.12%21.88%
112.50%6.25%9.38%6.25%——34.38%
26.25%6.25%3.12%———15.62%
36.25%3.12%6.25%—3.12%—18.75%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total25.00%31.25%28.12%9.38%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 1.44 +0.22
SD 1.45 1.24 2.12
CV 0.88 0.86 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——6.25%———6.25%
112.50%15.62%9.38%———37.50%
23.12%12.50%3.12%———18.75%
36.25%15.62%3.12%———25.00%
46.25%3.12%————9.38%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total31.25%46.88%21.88%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 0.91 +1.12
SD 1.26 0.73 1.68
CV 0.62 0.81 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%3.12%6.25%—3.12%28.12%
19.38%12.50%9.38%6.25%6.25%3.12%46.88%
23.12%3.12%15.62%—3.12%—25.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total21.88%21.88%28.12%12.50%9.38%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.88 -0.91
SD 0.74 1.56 1.69
CV 0.76 0.83 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Beveren 1744 68 36.41 +31.59 89.0% 23 27 32 36 40 46 50
RWD Molenbeek 1735 69 35.69 +33.31 97.0% 18 27 32 35 39 45 51
Lommel 1594 51 29.95 +21.05 63.0% 14 18 25 30 35 39 49
Deinze 1591 49 29.78 +19.22 54.0% 19 20 26 30 34 41 45
Beerschot 1586 49 30.51 +18.49 92.0% 15 21 26 31 35 39 45
Dender 1560 39 27.44 +11.56 7.0% 13 18 24 27 30 39 41
Club NXT 1557 49 25.29 +23.71 97.0% 11 16 21 25 29 34 42
Lierse Kempenzonen 1551 46 27.68 +18.32 95.0% 11 16 23 28 32 36 40
Anderlecht II 1548 37 37.20 -0.20 31.0% 20 27 33 38 40 46 49
Genk II 1482 26 32.43 -6.43 1.0% 17 23 29 32 36 41 57
Standard Liege II 1473 27 31.59 -4.59 2.0% 16 22 28 32 35 40 46
Excelsior Virton 1425 25 20.59 +4.41 15.0% 7 10 17 20 24 30 34

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.77%
No Edge
42.71%21.35%35.94%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.56 Elo pts.
168 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.4
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
19%
RWD Molenbeek, 3rd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Photo Finish
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.73 * Some Luck: 4.73 to 7.1 * Lucky: 7.1 to 9.46 * Wild Swing: 9.46 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.89 * Close: 1.89 to 2.83 * Off: 2.83 to 3.78 * Way Off: 3.78 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1 * A Surprise: 1 to 1.6 * Several Surprises: 1.6 to 2.2 * Many Surprises: 2.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.32 points
Lucky
05.9115
Average Finish Error
Expected
3.33
Off
02.365
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.00%
RWD Molenbeek
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.00%
Genk II
050
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 1.0
1 of 1
A Surprise
01

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Top-Heavy
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 74.35
1.93
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
58%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Even
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.25
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.03
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.11
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Shaky
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.41
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.06
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.046
Well Within Noise
00.1170.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
RWD Molenbeek19.00%25.00%5.00%18.00%11.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%—2.00%
Beveren24.00%19.00%15.00%12.00%8.00%9.00%3.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%—
Lommel5.00%5.00%11.00%6.00%14.00%6.00%10.00%12.00%5.00%10.00%10.00%6.00%
Club NXT2.00%1.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%6.00%9.00%20.00%17.00%19.00%12.00%
Deinze6.00%3.00%8.00%6.00%11.00%15.00%9.00%6.00%14.00%9.00%11.00%2.00%
Beerschot5.00%6.00%10.00%13.00%8.00%9.00%12.00%7.00%13.00%5.00%8.00%4.00%
Lierse Kempenzonen2.00%1.00%3.00%4.00%9.00%13.00%16.00%12.00%11.00%11.00%8.00%10.00%
Dender4.00%3.00%5.00%4.00%2.00%6.00%9.00%13.00%14.00%17.00%17.00%6.00%
Anderlecht II21.00%28.00%16.00%10.00%6.00%9.00%2.00%4.00%1.00%2.00%—1.00%
Standard Liege II6.00%3.00%12.00%10.00%12.00%11.00%13.00%9.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%3.00%
Genk II6.00%6.00%13.00%15.00%12.00%7.00%11.00%14.00%5.00%7.00%3.00%1.00%
Excelsior Virton————3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%7.00%12.00%16.00%53.00%
No playoff sim data.

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Won promotion playoff Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for Championship Round Qualified for relegation playoff
Beveren 35.00% — 65.00% —
RWD Molenbeek 27.00% 1.00% 62.00% 10.00%
Anderlecht II 22.00% — 78.00% —
Beerschot 8.00% — 92.00% —
Deinze 3.00% — 55.00% 42.00%
Standard Liege II 2.00% 4.00% 62.00% 32.00%
Dender 1.00% 2.00% 32.00% 65.00%
Lierse Kempenzonen 1.00% 4.00% 47.00% 48.00%
Lommel 1.00% 2.00% 55.00% 42.00%
Club NXT — — 100% —
Excelsior Virton — 2.00% 7.00% 91.00%
Genk II — — 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2022-08-12 Lommel L 1-455.2 1567 1561 43.78% 23.65% 32.57%+0.17 -18.6 0
2022-08-12 @ Dender W 4-155.2 1561 1567 32.57% 23.65% 43.78%-0.17 +18.6 3
2022-08-12 RWD Molenbeek D 1-164.8 1463 1584 26.95% 23.14% 49.91%-0.58 +0.9 1
2022-08-12 @ Excelsior Virton D 1-164.8 1584 1463 49.91% 23.14% 26.95%+0.58 -0.9 1
2022-08-13 Beveren W 1-053.8 1559 1572 41.30% 23.74% 34.96%+0.07 +6.8 3
2022-08-13 @ Beerschot L 0-153.8 1572 1559 34.96% 23.74% 41.30%-0.07 -6.8 0
2022-08-13 Standard Liege II D 2-273.8 1494 1640 24.30% 22.73% 52.97%-0.72 +0.9 1
2022-08-13 @ Club NXT D 2-273.8 1640 1494 52.97% 22.73% 24.30%+0.72 -0.8 1
2022-08-14 Deinze D 0-065.9 1640 1590 49.71% 23.16% 27.13%+0.44 -1.0 1
2022-08-14 @ Anderlecht II D 0-065.9 1590 1640 27.13% 23.16% 49.71%-0.44 +1.0 1
2022-08-14 Lierse Kempenzonen W 4-149.5 1640 1537 56.17% 22.18% 21.65%+0.75 +10.4 3
2022-08-14 @ Genk II L 1-449.5 1537 1640 21.65% 22.18% 56.17%-0.75 -10.4 0
2022-08-19 Beerschot D 2-275.6 1639 1566 52.62% 22.79% 24.59%+0.57 -0.8 2
2022-08-19 @ Standard Liege II D 2-275.6 1566 1639 24.59% 22.79% 52.62%-0.57 +0.8 4
2022-08-19 Genk II W 3-269.4 1591 1650 34.72% 23.74% 41.55%-0.21 +6.9 4
2022-08-19 @ Deinze L 2-369.4 1650 1591 41.55% 23.74% 34.72%+0.21 -6.9 3
2022-08-20 Dender W 1-051.8 1583 1548 47.84% 23.36% 28.80%+0.35 +5.8 4
2022-08-20 @ RWD Molenbeek L 0-151.8 1548 1583 28.80% 23.36% 47.84%-0.35 -5.8 0
2022-08-20 Excelsior Virton D 2-270.4 1565 1464 55.96% 22.22% 21.81%+0.74 -1.0 1
2022-08-20 @ Beveren D 2-270.4 1464 1565 21.81% 22.22% 55.96%-0.74 +1.0 2
2022-08-21 Anderlecht II L 0-251.5 1580 1639 34.79% 23.74% 41.47%-0.21 -12.7 3
2022-08-21 @ Lommel W 2-051.5 1639 1580 41.47% 23.74% 34.79%+0.21 +12.7 4
2022-08-21 Club NXT W 3-149.8 1526 1495 47.37% 23.40% 29.23%+0.33 +9.5 3
2022-08-21 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-349.8 1495 1526 29.23% 23.40% 47.37%-0.33 -9.5 1
2022-08-26 Lommel L 0-354.2 1643 1567 52.97% 22.73% 24.30%+0.59 -25.8 3
2022-08-26 @ Genk II W 3-054.2 1567 1643 24.30% 22.73% 52.97%-0.59 +25.8 6
2022-08-26 Standard Liege II L 0-153.5 1542 1638 29.98% 23.47% 46.55%-0.43 -6.0 0
2022-08-26 @ Dender W 1-053.5 1638 1542 46.55% 23.47% 29.98%+0.43 +6.0 5
2022-08-27 Excelsior Virton D 1-165.9 1598 1465 59.53% 21.46% 19.01%+0.93 -1.7 5
2022-08-27 @ Deinze D 1-165.9 1465 1598 19.01% 21.46% 59.53%-0.93 +1.7 3
2022-08-27 Beveren D 2-275.9 1651 1564 54.38% 22.51% 23.12%+0.66 -0.9 5
2022-08-27 @ Anderlecht II D 2-275.9 1564 1651 23.12% 22.51% 54.38%-0.66 +0.9 2
2022-08-28 Lierse Kempenzonen L 2-367.5 1567 1536 47.21% 23.41% 29.37%+0.32 -7.7 4
2022-08-28 @ Beerschot W 3-267.5 1536 1567 29.37% 23.41% 47.21%-0.32 +7.6 6
2022-08-28 RWD Molenbeek W 2-161.0 1485 1589 28.96% 23.37% 47.67%-0.48 +8.1 4
2022-08-28 @ Club NXT L 1-261.0 1589 1485 47.67% 23.37% 28.96%+0.48 -8.1 4
2022-09-02 Anderlecht II D 2-275.9 1581 1650 33.35% 23.69% 42.96%-0.27 +0.3 5
2022-09-02 @ RWD Molenbeek D 2-275.9 1650 1581 42.96% 23.69% 33.35%+0.27 -0.3 6
2022-09-02 Genk II D 2-276.5 1644 1617 46.69% 23.46% 29.86%+0.30 -0.5 6
2022-09-02 @ Standard Liege II D 2-276.5 1617 1644 29.86% 23.46% 46.69%-0.30 +0.5 4
2022-09-03 Beerschot L 1-256.2 1493 1559 33.83% 23.71% 42.46%-0.25 -6.2 4
2022-09-03 @ Club NXT W 2-156.2 1559 1493 42.46% 23.71% 33.83%+0.25 +6.2 7
2022-09-03 Deinze W 4-154.6 1544 1596 35.65% 23.76% 40.59%-0.17 +17.5 9
2022-09-03 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-454.6 1596 1544 40.59% 23.76% 35.65%+0.17 -17.5 5
2022-09-04 Dender D 1-163.0 1467 1536 33.30% 23.68% 43.01%-0.27 +0.4 4
2022-09-04 @ Excelsior Virton D 1-163.0 1536 1467 43.01% 23.68% 33.30%+0.27 -0.4 1
2022-09-04 Beveren L 0-253.6 1593 1565 46.92% 23.44% 29.65%+0.31 -16.1 6
2022-09-04 @ Lommel W 2-053.6 1565 1593 29.65% 23.44% 46.92%-0.31 +16.0 5
2022-09-09 Lierse Kempenzonen L 2-365.1 1536 1561 39.50% 23.78% 36.72%-0.01 -6.6 1
2022-09-09 @ Dender W 3-265.1 1561 1536 36.72% 23.78% 39.50%+0.01 +6.6 12
2022-09-09 Lommel L 0-251.6 1565 1577 41.39% 23.74% 34.87%+0.07 -14.5 7
2022-09-09 @ Beerschot W 2-051.6 1577 1565 34.87% 23.74% 41.39%-0.07 +14.5 9
2022-09-10 Club NXT D 1-168.6 1650 1487 62.70% 20.63% 16.67%+1.11 -1.9 7
2022-09-10 @ Anderlecht II D 1-168.6 1487 1650 16.67% 20.63% 62.70%-1.11 +1.9 5
2022-09-10 Standard Liege II W 2-163.6 1581 1643 34.26% 23.72% 42.02%-0.23 +7.3 8
2022-09-10 @ Beveren L 1-263.6 1643 1581 42.02% 23.72% 34.26%+0.23 -7.3 6
2022-09-11 Excelsior Virton L 0-159.4 1618 1467 61.44% 20.98% 17.58%+1.03 -10.7 4
2022-09-11 @ Genk II W 1-059.4 1467 1618 17.58% 20.98% 61.44%-1.03 +10.7 7
2022-09-11 RWD Molenbeek L 1-262.3 1578 1581 42.67% 23.70% 33.63%+0.12 -7.4 5
2022-09-11 @ Deinze W 2-162.3 1581 1578 33.63% 23.70% 42.67%-0.12 +7.4 8
2022-09-16 Anderlecht II L 2-366.0 1568 1648 31.91% 23.61% 44.48%-0.34 -5.6 12
2022-09-16 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-266.0 1648 1568 44.48% 23.61% 31.91%+0.34 +5.6 10
2022-09-16 Dender L 0-252.4 1571 1529 48.69% 23.27% 28.04%+0.39 -16.6 5
2022-09-16 @ Deinze W 2-052.4 1529 1571 28.04% 23.27% 48.69%-0.39 +16.6 4
2022-09-17 Genk II D 1-169.1 1589 1607 40.50% 23.76% 35.73%+0.03 -0.2 9
2022-09-17 @ RWD Molenbeek D 1-169.1 1607 1589 35.73% 23.76% 40.50%-0.03 +0.2 5
2022-09-17 Beveren D 2-271.8 1489 1588 29.55% 23.43% 47.03%-0.45 +0.5 6
2022-09-17 @ Club NXT D 2-271.8 1588 1489 47.03% 23.43% 29.55%+0.45 -0.5 9
2022-09-18 Beerschot L 1-255.0 1478 1551 32.87% 23.66% 43.47%-0.29 -6.1 7
2022-09-18 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-155.0 1551 1478 43.47% 23.66% 32.87%+0.29 +6.1 10
2022-09-18 Standard Liege II L 0-156.7 1592 1636 36.76% 23.78% 39.46%-0.12 -7.0 9
2022-09-18 @ Lommel W 1-056.7 1636 1592 39.46% 23.78% 36.76%+0.12 +7.0 9
2022-09-30 Club NXT D 3-371.9 1472 1489 40.56% 23.76% 35.68%+0.03 -0.1 8
2022-09-30 @ Excelsior Virton D 3-371.9 1489 1472 35.68% 23.76% 40.56%-0.03 +0.1 7
2022-09-30 Dender L 0-254.6 1607 1546 51.17% 22.99% 25.84%+0.50 -17.3 5
2022-09-30 @ Genk II W 2-054.6 1546 1607 25.84% 22.99% 51.17%-0.50 +17.3 7
2022-10-01 Deinze W 2-048.2 1557 1554 43.36% 23.67% 32.98%+0.15 +12.1 13
2022-10-01 @ Beerschot L 0-248.2 1554 1557 32.98% 23.67% 43.36%-0.15 -12.2 5
2022-10-01 RWD Molenbeek W 2-160.0 1585 1589 42.50% 23.70% 33.80%+0.12 +6.2 12
2022-10-01 @ Lommel L 1-260.0 1589 1585 33.80% 23.70% 42.50%-0.12 -6.2 9
2022-10-02 Anderlecht II L 1-360.8 1643 1654 41.56% 23.74% 34.70%+0.08 -12.6 9
2022-10-02 @ Standard Liege II W 3-160.8 1654 1643 34.70% 23.74% 41.56%-0.08 +12.6 13
2022-10-02 Lierse Kempenzonen W 5-047.3 1588 1562 46.53% 23.47% 30.00%+0.29 +26.3 12
2022-10-02 @ Beveren L 0-547.3 1562 1588 30.00% 23.47% 46.53%-0.29 -26.3 12
2022-10-07 Excelsior Virton W 3-148.2 1666 1472 65.83% 19.66% 14.51%+1.30 +5.0 16
2022-10-07 @ Anderlecht II L 1-348.2 1472 1666 14.51% 19.66% 65.83%-1.30 -5.0 8
2022-10-07 Beveren L 0-348.6 1563 1614 35.86% 23.77% 40.37%-0.16 -18.8 7
2022-10-07 @ Dender W 3-048.6 1614 1563 40.37% 23.77% 35.86%+0.16 +18.9 15
2022-10-08 Beerschot W 2-048.9 1582 1569 44.91% 23.58% 31.51%+0.22 +11.7 12
2022-10-08 @ RWD Molenbeek L 0-248.9 1569 1582 31.51% 23.58% 44.91%-0.22 -11.7 13
2022-10-08 Lommel W 3-048.7 1542 1591 36.21% 23.77% 40.02%-0.15 +20.5 8
2022-10-08 @ Deinze L 0-348.7 1591 1542 40.02% 23.77% 36.21%+0.15 -20.5 12
2022-10-09 Genk II W 3-157.3 1490 1590 29.42% 23.42% 47.17%-0.45 +14.0 10
2022-10-09 @ Club NXT L 1-357.3 1590 1490 47.17% 23.42% 29.42%+0.45 -14.0 5
2022-10-09 Standard Liege II W 2-053.7 1536 1630 30.11% 23.48% 46.42%-0.42 +15.9 15
2022-10-09 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-253.7 1630 1536 46.42% 23.48% 30.11%+0.42 -15.9 9
2022-10-14 Deinze W 2-157.6 1633 1563 52.25% 22.84% 24.91%+0.55 +4.8 18
2022-10-14 @ Beveren L 1-257.6 1563 1633 24.91% 22.84% 52.25%-0.55 -4.8 8
2022-10-14 RWD Molenbeek L 1-457.9 1614 1594 45.85% 23.52% 30.63%+0.26 -19.3 9
2022-10-14 @ Standard Liege II W 4-157.9 1594 1614 30.63% 23.52% 45.85%-0.26 +19.3 15
2022-10-15 Club NXT L 3-470.8 1570 1504 51.85% 22.90% 25.26%+0.54 -8.1 12
2022-10-15 @ Lommel W 4-370.8 1504 1570 25.26% 22.90% 51.85%-0.54 +8.1 13
2022-10-15 Lierse Kempenzonen D 0-059.5 1467 1552 31.29% 23.57% 45.14%-0.37 +0.6 9
2022-10-15 @ Excelsior Virton D 0-059.5 1552 1467 45.14% 23.57% 31.29%+0.37 -0.6 16
2022-10-16 Anderlecht II W 3-270.9 1576 1671 30.00% 23.47% 46.53%-0.43 +7.6 8
2022-10-16 @ Genk II L 2-370.9 1671 1576 46.53% 23.47% 30.00%+0.43 -7.6 16
2022-10-16 Dender D 1-166.6 1557 1544 44.83% 23.59% 31.58%+0.22 -0.5 14
2022-10-16 @ Beerschot D 1-166.6 1544 1557 31.58% 23.59% 44.83%-0.22 +0.5 8
2022-10-21 Deinze W 2-048.8 1512 1558 36.48% 23.78% 39.75%-0.14 +14.0 16
2022-10-21 @ Club NXT L 0-248.8 1558 1512 39.75% 23.78% 36.48%+0.14 -14.0 8
2022-10-21 Excelsior Virton W 2-151.6 1595 1467 59.01% 21.58% 19.40%+0.90 +3.8 12
2022-10-21 @ Standard Liege II L 1-251.6 1467 1595 19.40% 21.58% 59.01%-0.90 -3.8 9
2022-10-22 Beerschot L 1-262.9 1583 1557 46.70% 23.45% 29.84%+0.30 -8.0 8
2022-10-22 @ Genk II W 2-162.9 1557 1583 29.84% 23.45% 46.70%-0.30 +8.0 17
2022-10-22 Dender L 0-257.7 1664 1545 58.01% 21.81% 20.18%+0.85 -19.3 16
2022-10-22 @ Anderlecht II W 2-057.7 1545 1664 20.18% 21.81% 58.01%-0.85 +19.3 11
2022-10-23 Lommel W 3-154.8 1551 1562 41.52% 23.74% 34.74%+0.07 +11.0 19
2022-10-23 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-354.8 1562 1551 34.74% 23.74% 41.52%-0.07 -11.0 12
2022-10-23 Beveren W 3-158.7 1613 1638 39.64% 23.78% 36.58%+0.00 +11.4 18
2022-10-23 @ RWD Molenbeek L 1-358.7 1638 1613 36.58% 23.78% 39.64%+0.00 -11.4 18
2022-10-28 Excelsior Virton W 3-147.4 1551 1463 54.42% 22.50% 23.08%+0.66 +7.8 15
2022-10-28 @ Lommel L 1-347.4 1463 1551 23.08% 22.50% 54.42%-0.66 -7.8 9
2022-10-28 Standard Liege II W 4-154.8 1544 1599 35.29% 23.75% 40.96%-0.19 +17.6 11
2022-10-28 @ Deinze L 1-454.8 1599 1544 40.96% 23.75% 35.29%+0.19 -17.6 12
2022-10-29 Anderlecht II L 1-260.2 1565 1644 31.97% 23.61% 44.42%-0.33 -5.9 17
2022-10-29 @ Beerschot W 2-160.2 1644 1565 44.42% 23.61% 31.97%+0.33 +5.9 19
2022-10-29 Club NXT W 3-261.4 1564 1526 48.23% 23.32% 28.45%+0.37 +5.1 14
2022-10-29 @ Dender L 2-361.4 1526 1564 28.45% 23.32% 48.23%-0.37 -5.1 16
2022-10-30 Genk II W 3-046.3 1626 1575 49.84% 23.15% 27.01%+0.44 +15.0 21
2022-10-30 @ Beveren L 0-346.3 1575 1626 27.01% 23.15% 49.84%-0.44 -15.0 8
2022-10-30 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-045.6 1625 1562 51.35% 22.96% 25.69%+0.51 +14.3 21
2022-10-30 @ RWD Molenbeek L 0-345.6 1562 1625 25.69% 22.96% 51.35%-0.51 -14.3 19
2022-11-04 RWD Molenbeek L 0-155.2 1569 1639 33.26% 23.68% 43.06%-0.28 -6.5 14
2022-11-04 @ Dender W 1-055.2 1639 1569 43.06% 23.68% 33.26%+0.28 +6.5 24
2022-11-04 Standard Liege II W 3-046.3 1650 1581 52.13% 22.86% 25.01%+0.55 +14.0 22
2022-11-04 @ Anderlecht II L 0-346.3 1581 1650 25.01% 22.86% 52.13%-0.55 -14.0 12
2022-11-05 Club NXT W 1-049.6 1641 1521 58.20% 21.77% 20.04%+0.86 +4.2 24
2022-11-05 @ Beveren L 0-149.6 1521 1641 20.04% 21.77% 58.20%-0.86 -4.2 16
2022-11-05 Deinze L 0-147.9 1456 1562 28.71% 23.35% 47.94%-0.49 -5.8 9
2022-11-05 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-047.9 1562 1456 47.94% 23.35% 28.71%+0.49 +5.8 14
2022-11-06 Beerschot L 1-357.4 1559 1559 43.09% 23.68% 33.23%+0.14 -13.0 15
2022-11-06 @ Lommel W 3-157.4 1559 1559 33.23% 23.68% 43.09%-0.14 +13.0 20
2022-11-06 Genk II W 4-259.1 1548 1560 41.28% 23.75% 34.97%+0.06 +9.9 22
2022-11-06 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 2-459.1 1560 1548 34.97% 23.75% 41.28%-0.06 -9.9 8
2022-11-11 Anderlecht II D 2-275.1 1516 1664 24.06% 22.69% 53.24%-0.74 +0.9 17
2022-11-11 @ Club NXT D 2-275.1 1664 1516 53.24% 22.69% 24.06%+0.74 -0.9 23
2022-11-11 Dender D 1-167.4 1567 1563 43.71% 23.65% 32.64%+0.17 -0.4 13
2022-11-11 @ Standard Liege II D 1-167.4 1563 1567 32.64% 23.65% 43.71%-0.17 +0.4 15
2022-11-12 Deinze D 0-062.9 1551 1567 40.70% 23.76% 35.54%+0.04 -0.2 9
2022-11-12 @ Genk II D 0-062.9 1567 1551 35.54% 23.76% 40.70%-0.04 +0.2 15
2022-11-12 Excelsior Virton W 3-038.2 1572 1450 58.34% 21.74% 19.93%+0.86 +11.4 23
2022-11-12 @ Beerschot L 0-338.2 1450 1572 19.93% 21.74% 58.34%-0.86 -11.4 9
2022-11-13 Lommel W 5-045.6 1646 1546 55.81% 22.25% 21.93%+0.73 +20.1 27
2022-11-13 @ RWD Molenbeek L 0-545.6 1546 1646 21.93% 22.25% 55.81%-0.73 -20.1 15
2022-11-13 Beveren L 1-552.2 1558 1645 30.96% 23.54% 45.50%-0.38 -18.3 22
2022-11-13 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 5-152.2 1645 1558 45.50% 23.54% 30.96%+0.38 +18.3 27
2022-11-18 Genk II W 2-157.9 1526 1550 39.61% 23.78% 36.61%-0.01 +6.6 18
2022-11-18 @ Lommel L 1-257.9 1550 1526 36.61% 23.78% 39.61%+0.01 -6.6 9
2022-11-18 Standard Liege II L 0-242.2 1438 1567 26.14% 23.03% 50.84%-0.62 -10.0 9
2022-11-18 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-042.2 1567 1438 50.84% 23.03% 26.14%+0.62 +10.0 16
2022-11-19 Club NXT W 1-049.7 1583 1517 51.74% 22.91% 25.35%+0.53 +5.2 26
2022-11-19 @ Beerschot L 0-149.7 1517 1583 25.35% 22.91% 51.74%-0.53 -5.2 17
2022-11-19 RWD Molenbeek D 1-171.3 1664 1666 42.77% 23.69% 33.54%+0.13 -0.4 28
2022-11-19 @ Beveren D 1-171.3 1666 1664 33.54% 23.69% 42.77%-0.13 +0.4 28
2022-11-20 Anderlecht II W 2-165.1 1563 1663 29.39% 23.41% 47.20%-0.46 +8.1 18
2022-11-20 @ Dender L 1-265.1 1663 1563 47.20% 23.41% 29.39%+0.46 -8.1 23
2022-11-20 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-156.8 1568 1539 46.90% 23.44% 29.66%+0.31 +5.6 18
2022-11-20 @ Deinze L 1-256.8 1539 1568 29.66% 23.44% 46.90%-0.31 -5.6 22
2022-11-25 Dender W 4-153.1 1512 1571 34.73% 23.74% 41.53%-0.21 +17.8 20
2022-11-25 @ Club NXT L 1-453.1 1571 1512 41.53% 23.74% 34.73%+0.21 -17.8 18
2022-11-25 RWD Molenbeek W 2-055.7 1544 1666 26.83% 23.13% 50.04%-0.59 +17.0 12
2022-11-25 @ Genk II L 0-255.7 1666 1544 50.04% 23.13% 26.83%+0.59 -17.0 28
2022-11-26 Beerschot L 1-266.7 1655 1588 51.91% 22.89% 25.20%+0.54 -8.8 23
2022-11-26 @ Anderlecht II W 2-166.7 1588 1655 25.20% 22.89% 51.91%-0.54 +8.8 29
2022-11-26 Deinze L 1-262.3 1577 1573 43.58% 23.66% 32.76%+0.16 -7.6 16
2022-11-26 @ Standard Liege II W 2-162.3 1573 1577 32.76% 23.66% 43.58%-0.16 +7.5 21
2022-11-27 Excelsior Virton D 2-267.9 1534 1428 56.48% 22.13% 21.40%+0.77 -1.1 23
2022-11-27 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-267.9 1428 1534 21.40% 22.13% 56.48%-0.77 +1.1 10
2022-11-27 Lommel L 2-373.1 1663 1532 59.32% 21.51% 19.17%+0.92 -9.3 28
2022-11-27 @ Beveren W 3-273.1 1532 1663 19.17% 21.51% 59.32%-0.92 +9.3 21
2022-12-02 Genk II W 2-047.5 1647 1561 54.20% 22.54% 23.26%+0.65 +9.0 26
2022-12-02 @ Anderlecht II L 0-247.5 1561 1647 23.26% 22.54% 54.20%-0.65 -9.0 12
2022-12-02 Lierse Kempenzonen L 2-462.7 1569 1533 48.02% 23.34% 28.64%+0.36 -12.7 16
2022-12-02 @ Standard Liege II W 4-262.7 1533 1569 28.64% 23.34% 48.02%-0.36 +12.7 26
2022-12-03 Club NXT L 0-257.0 1649 1530 58.04% 21.80% 20.16%+0.85 -19.3 28
2022-12-03 @ RWD Molenbeek W 2-057.0 1530 1649 20.16% 21.80% 58.04%-0.85 +19.3 23
2022-12-03 Lommel L 0-145.9 1429 1542 27.97% 23.27% 48.76%-0.53 -5.6 10
2022-12-03 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-045.9 1542 1429 48.76% 23.27% 27.97%+0.53 +5.6 24
2022-12-04 Beerschot L 2-365.9 1553 1597 36.87% 23.78% 39.35%-0.12 -6.3 18
2022-12-04 @ Dender W 3-265.9 1597 1553 39.35% 23.78% 36.87%+0.12 +6.3 32
2022-12-04 Beveren L 1-454.5 1581 1654 32.83% 23.66% 43.51%-0.29 -14.8 21
2022-12-04 @ Deinze W 4-154.5 1654 1581 43.51% 23.66% 32.83%+0.29 +14.8 31
2022-12-09 Anderlecht II W 4-155.4 1669 1656 44.85% 23.59% 31.56%+0.22 +14.4 34
2022-12-09 @ Beveren L 1-455.4 1656 1669 31.56% 23.59% 44.85%-0.22 -14.4 26
2022-12-09 Club NXT L 1-260.7 1552 1549 43.40% 23.67% 32.94%+0.15 -7.5 12
2022-12-09 @ Genk II W 2-160.7 1549 1552 32.94% 23.67% 43.40%-0.15 +7.5 26
2022-12-10 Dender W 2-157.5 1545 1547 42.83% 23.69% 33.48%+0.13 +6.2 29
2022-12-10 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-257.5 1547 1545 33.48% 23.69% 42.83%-0.13 -6.2 18
2022-12-11 Deinze W 1-053.5 1547 1566 40.46% 23.76% 35.77%+0.03 +6.9 27
2022-12-11 @ Lommel L 0-153.5 1566 1547 35.77% 23.76% 40.46%-0.03 -6.9 21
2022-12-11 Excelsior Virton W 3-145.1 1630 1424 66.88% 19.30% 13.82%+1.36 +4.7 31
2022-12-11 @ RWD Molenbeek L 1-345.1 1424 1630 13.82% 19.30% 66.88%-1.36 -4.7 10
2022-12-11 Standard Liege II W 1-052.2 1603 1557 49.30% 23.21% 27.49%+0.42 +5.5 35
2022-12-11 @ Beerschot L 0-152.2 1557 1603 27.49% 23.21% 49.30%-0.42 -5.5 16
2022-12-17 Lommel L 0-348.6 1551 1554 42.62% 23.70% 33.68%+0.12 -21.6 16
2022-12-17 @ Standard Liege II W 3-048.6 1554 1551 33.68% 23.70% 42.62%-0.12 +21.6 30
2022-12-17 Beveren D 0-063.6 1419 1683 14.55% 19.68% 65.77%-1.43 +2.4 11
2022-12-17 @ Excelsior Virton D 0-063.6 1683 1419 65.77% 19.68% 14.55%+1.43 -2.4 35
2022-12-18 RWD Molenbeek L 1-265.1 1641 1634 44.00% 23.63% 32.36%+0.18 -7.6 26
2022-12-18 @ Anderlecht II W 2-165.1 1634 1641 32.36% 23.63% 44.00%-0.18 +7.6 34
2023-01-15 Beerschot W 3-267.4 1559 1609 36.01% 23.77% 40.22%-0.16 +6.7 24
2023-01-15 @ Deinze L 2-367.4 1609 1559 40.22% 23.77% 36.01%+0.16 -6.7 35
2023-01-20 Lommel W 2-159.5 1557 1576 40.37% 23.77% 35.87%+0.03 +6.5 29
2023-01-20 @ Club NXT L 1-259.5 1576 1557 35.87% 23.77% 40.37%-0.03 -6.5 30
2023-01-21 Deinze W 2-157.6 1642 1566 53.04% 22.72% 24.24%+0.59 +4.7 37
2023-01-21 @ RWD Molenbeek L 1-257.6 1566 1642 24.24% 22.72% 53.04%-0.59 -4.7 24
2023-01-21 Excelsior Virton L 3-468.3 1541 1422 58.06% 21.80% 20.14%+0.85 -8.9 18
2023-01-21 @ Dender W 4-368.3 1422 1541 20.14% 21.80% 58.06%-0.85 +8.9 14
2023-01-22 Beerschot W 2-049.1 1681 1602 53.32% 22.68% 24.00%+0.61 +9.3 38
2023-01-22 @ Beveren L 0-249.1 1602 1681 24.00% 22.68% 53.32%-0.61 -9.3 35
2023-01-22 Lierse Kempenzonen D 3-379.7 1634 1552 53.75% 22.61% 23.64%+0.63 -0.8 27
2023-01-22 @ Anderlecht II D 3-379.7 1552 1634 23.64% 22.61% 53.75%-0.63 +0.8 30
2023-01-24 Genk II L 0-153.9 1532 1544 41.35% 23.74% 34.90%+0.07 -7.7 18
2023-01-24 @ Dender W 1-053.9 1544 1532 34.90% 23.74% 41.35%-0.07 +7.7 15
2023-01-27 Club NXT W 2-158.5 1561 1563 42.76% 23.69% 33.55%+0.13 +6.2 27
2023-01-27 @ Deinze L 1-258.5 1563 1561 33.55% 23.69% 42.76%-0.13 -6.2 29
2023-01-27 Genk II W 3-263.0 1593 1552 48.58% 23.28% 28.14%+0.38 +5.1 38
2023-01-27 @ Beerschot L 2-363.0 1552 1593 28.14% 23.28% 48.58%-0.38 -5.1 15
2023-01-28 Anderlecht II L 1-347.7 1430 1633 19.02% 21.46% 59.52%-1.06 -6.5 14
2023-01-28 @ Excelsior Virton W 3-147.7 1633 1430 59.52% 21.46% 19.02%+1.06 +6.5 30
2023-01-28 Dender D 1-166.4 1569 1524 49.11% 23.23% 27.66%+0.41 -0.8 31
2023-01-28 @ Lommel D 1-166.4 1524 1569 27.66% 23.23% 49.11%-0.41 +0.8 19
2023-01-29 RWD Molenbeek L 1-259.4 1552 1647 30.11% 23.48% 46.41%-0.42 -5.6 30
2023-01-29 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-159.4 1647 1552 46.41% 23.48% 30.11%+0.42 +5.6 40
2023-01-29 Beveren D 2-276.0 1530 1690 22.81% 22.45% 54.74%-0.81 +1.0 17
2023-01-29 @ Standard Liege II D 2-276.0 1690 1530 54.74% 22.45% 22.81%+0.81 -1.0 39
2023-02-01 Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-052.0 1557 1547 44.49% 23.61% 31.90%+0.20 +6.3 32
2023-02-01 @ Club NXT L 0-152.0 1547 1557 31.90% 23.61% 44.49%-0.20 -6.3 30
2023-02-03 Lommel D 2-275.7 1639 1569 52.38% 22.82% 24.80%+0.56 -0.8 31
2023-02-03 @ Anderlecht II D 2-275.7 1569 1639 24.80% 22.82% 52.38%-0.56 +0.8 32
2023-02-03 Beveren D 2-276.2 1547 1689 24.65% 22.80% 52.56%-0.70 +0.8 16
2023-02-03 @ Genk II D 2-276.2 1689 1547 52.56% 22.80% 24.65%+0.70 -0.8 40
2023-02-04 Beerschot W 1-055.9 1540 1598 34.94% 23.74% 41.31%-0.20 +7.7 33
2023-02-04 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-155.9 1598 1540 41.31% 23.74% 34.94%+0.20 -7.7 38
2023-02-04 Standard Liege II W 3-151.7 1652 1531 58.34% 21.73% 19.92%+0.86 +6.8 43
2023-02-04 @ RWD Molenbeek L 1-351.7 1531 1652 19.92% 21.73% 58.34%-0.86 -6.8 17
2023-02-05 Deinze L 0-153.2 1525 1567 37.08% 23.78% 39.13%-0.11 -7.1 19
2023-02-05 @ Dender W 1-053.2 1567 1525 39.13% 23.78% 37.08%+0.11 +7.1 30
2023-02-05 Excelsior Virton W 1-043.1 1563 1424 60.25% 21.29% 18.47%+0.97 +3.9 35
2023-02-05 @ Club NXT L 0-143.1 1424 1563 18.47% 21.29% 60.25%-0.97 -3.9 14
2023-02-11 Anderlecht II L 2-366.6 1574 1639 34.01% 23.71% 42.28%-0.24 -5.9 30
2023-02-11 @ Deinze W 3-266.6 1639 1574 42.28% 23.71% 34.01%+0.24 +5.9 34
2023-02-11 Club NXT D 0-062.0 1524 1567 36.90% 23.78% 39.32%-0.12 +0.1 18
2023-02-11 @ Standard Liege II D 0-062.0 1567 1524 39.32% 23.78% 36.90%+0.12 -0.1 36
2023-02-11 Dender W 5-251.1 1688 1518 63.44% 20.42% 16.15%+1.15 +6.8 43
2023-02-11 @ Beveren L 2-551.1 1518 1688 16.15% 20.42% 63.44%-1.15 -6.8 19
2023-02-11 Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-252.2 1569 1548 45.97% 23.51% 30.52%+0.27 -15.8 32
2023-02-11 @ Lommel W 2-052.2 1548 1569 30.52% 23.51% 45.97%-0.27 +15.8 36
2023-02-12 Genk II L 0-145.2 1420 1548 26.25% 23.05% 50.71%-0.62 -5.3 14
2023-02-12 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-045.2 1548 1420 50.71% 23.05% 26.25%+0.62 +5.3 19
2023-02-12 RWD Molenbeek L 0-156.1 1590 1659 33.38% 23.69% 42.94%-0.27 -6.5 38
2023-02-12 @ Beerschot W 1-056.1 1659 1590 42.94% 23.69% 33.38%+0.27 +6.5 46
2023-02-19 Standard Liege II D 2-271.8 1553 1524 47.00% 23.43% 29.57%+0.31 -0.5 20
2023-02-19 @ Genk II D 2-271.8 1524 1553 29.57% 23.43% 47.00%-0.31 +0.5 19

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2023-02-24 Excelsior Virton W 2-147.7 1511 1415 55.45% 22.32% 22.23%+0.71 +4.3 3
2023-02-24 @ Dender L 1-247.7 1415 1511 22.23% 22.32% 55.45%-0.71 -4.3 0
2023-02-24 Lommel W 1-052.8 1524 1554 38.94% 23.79% 37.28%-0.03 +7.1 3
2023-02-24 @ Standard Liege II L 0-152.8 1554 1524 37.28% 23.79% 38.94%+0.03 -7.1 0
2023-02-25 Genk II L 1-358.1 1568 1552 45.25% 23.56% 31.19%+0.23 -13.5 0
2023-02-25 @ Deinze W 3-158.1 1552 1568 31.19% 23.56% 45.25%-0.23 +13.5 3
2023-02-25 Beveren W 3-054.6 1567 1695 26.20% 23.04% 50.76%-0.62 +24.9 3
2023-02-25 @ Club NXT L 0-354.6 1695 1567 50.76% 23.04% 26.20%+0.62 -24.9 0
2023-02-26 Anderlecht II D 0-065.7 1584 1645 34.48% 23.73% 41.80%-0.22 +0.3 1
2023-02-26 @ Beerschot D 0-065.7 1645 1584 41.80% 23.73% 34.48%+0.22 -0.3 1
2023-02-26 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-153.3 1666 1564 56.08% 22.20% 21.72%+0.74 +7.4 3
2023-02-26 @ RWD Molenbeek L 1-353.3 1564 1666 21.72% 22.20% 56.08%-0.74 -7.4 0
2023-03-03 Club NXT L 1-266.1 1644 1592 50.03% 23.13% 26.84%+0.45 -8.5 1
2023-03-03 @ Anderlecht II W 2-166.1 1592 1644 26.84% 23.13% 50.03%-0.45 +8.5 6
2023-03-03 Dender W 1-049.7 1546 1516 47.25% 23.41% 29.34%+0.32 +5.9 3
2023-03-03 @ Lommel L 0-149.7 1516 1546 29.34% 23.41% 47.25%-0.32 -5.9 3
2023-03-04 Deinze L 1-249.9 1410 1555 24.42% 22.76% 52.82%-0.72 -4.7 0
2023-03-04 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-149.9 1555 1410 52.82% 22.76% 24.42%+0.72 +4.7 3
2023-03-04 RWD Molenbeek W 2-162.8 1670 1673 42.64% 23.70% 33.66%+0.12 +6.2 3
2023-03-04 @ Beveren L 1-262.8 1673 1670 33.66% 23.70% 42.64%-0.12 -6.2 3
2023-03-05 Beerschot L 0-155.3 1556 1584 39.18% 23.78% 37.04%-0.02 -7.4 0
2023-03-05 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-055.3 1584 1556 37.04% 23.78% 39.18%+0.02 +7.4 4
2023-03-05 Standard Liege II D 1-166.5 1566 1531 47.72% 23.37% 28.92%+0.34 -0.7 4
2023-03-05 @ Genk II D 1-166.5 1531 1566 28.92% 23.37% 47.72%-0.34 +0.7 4
2023-03-10 Deinze W 1-053.4 1510 1560 35.99% 23.77% 40.24%-0.16 +7.5 6
2023-03-10 @ Dender L 0-153.4 1560 1510 40.24% 23.77% 35.99%+0.16 -7.5 3
2023-03-10 Beveren L 0-155.7 1591 1676 31.31% 23.57% 45.12%-0.36 -6.2 4
2023-03-10 @ Beerschot W 1-055.7 1676 1591 45.12% 23.57% 31.31%+0.36 +6.2 6
2023-03-11 Anderlecht II W 2-053.9 1549 1636 31.09% 23.55% 45.36%-0.37 +15.6 3
2023-03-11 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-253.9 1636 1549 45.36% 23.55% 31.09%+0.37 -15.6 1
2023-03-11 Standard Liege II W 1-051.4 1406 1532 26.35% 23.06% 50.59%-0.61 +9.1 3
2023-03-11 @ Excelsior Virton L 0-151.4 1532 1406 50.59% 23.06% 26.35%+0.61 -9.1 4
2023-03-12 Club NXT W 3-264.7 1667 1600 51.82% 22.90% 25.28%+0.53 +4.6 6
2023-03-12 @ RWD Molenbeek L 2-364.7 1600 1667 25.28% 22.90% 51.82%-0.53 -4.6 6
2023-03-12 Genk II W 2-049.0 1552 1565 41.26% 23.75% 34.99%+0.06 +12.7 6
2023-03-12 @ Lommel L 0-249.0 1565 1552 34.99% 23.75% 41.26%-0.06 -12.7 4
2023-03-17 Excelsior Virton D 1-162.4 1552 1415 60.07% 21.33% 18.60%+0.96 -1.7 5
2023-03-17 @ Genk II D 1-162.4 1415 1552 18.60% 21.33% 60.07%-0.96 +1.7 4
2023-03-17 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-047.1 1682 1565 57.88% 21.84% 20.28%+0.84 +8.0 9
2023-03-17 @ Beveren L 0-247.1 1565 1682 20.28% 21.84% 57.88%-0.84 -8.0 3
2023-03-18 Lommel D 1-167.0 1552 1565 41.24% 23.75% 35.01%+0.06 -0.2 4
2023-03-18 @ Deinze D 1-167.0 1565 1552 35.01% 23.75% 41.24%-0.06 +0.2 7
2023-03-18 RWD Molenbeek L 0-450.8 1620 1672 35.78% 23.77% 40.45%-0.17 -24.6 1
2023-03-18 @ Anderlecht II W 4-050.8 1672 1620 40.45% 23.77% 35.78%+0.17 +24.6 9
2023-03-19 Beerschot W 2-159.6 1596 1585 44.53% 23.61% 31.86%+0.20 +5.9 9
2023-03-19 @ Club NXT L 1-259.6 1585 1596 31.86% 23.61% 44.53%-0.20 -5.9 4
2023-03-19 Dender D 1-164.4 1523 1517 43.87% 23.64% 32.49%+0.17 -0.4 5
2023-03-19 @ Standard Liege II D 1-164.4 1517 1523 32.49% 23.64% 43.87%-0.17 +0.4 7
2023-03-31 Genk II W 1-052.6 1518 1551 38.39% 23.79% 37.82%-0.06 +7.2 10
2023-03-31 @ Dender L 0-152.6 1551 1518 37.82% 23.79% 38.39%+0.06 -7.2 5
2023-03-31 Beveren L 0-449.0 1596 1690 30.07% 23.47% 46.46%-0.42 -21.4 1
2023-03-31 @ Anderlecht II W 4-049.0 1690 1596 46.46% 23.47% 30.07%+0.42 +21.4 12
2023-04-01 Club NXT L 1-260.5 1557 1602 36.67% 23.78% 39.55%-0.13 -6.6 3
2023-04-01 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-160.5 1602 1557 39.55% 23.78% 36.67%+0.13 +6.6 12
2023-04-01 Standard Liege II W 5-044.8 1552 1523 47.02% 23.43% 29.55%+0.31 +26.0 7
2023-04-01 @ Deinze L 0-544.8 1523 1552 29.55% 23.43% 47.02%-0.31 -26.0 5
2023-04-02 Excelsior Virton L 1-261.0 1565 1416 61.25% 21.03% 17.72%+1.02 -10.1 7
2023-04-02 @ Lommel W 2-161.0 1416 1565 17.72% 21.03% 61.25%-1.02 +10.1 7
2023-04-02 RWD Molenbeek D 1-170.8 1579 1696 27.44% 23.20% 49.35%-0.55 +0.9 5
2023-04-02 @ Beerschot D 1-170.8 1696 1579 49.35% 23.20% 27.44%+0.55 -0.9 10
2023-04-07 Deinze L 1-256.4 1497 1578 31.80% 23.60% 44.60%-0.34 -5.9 5
2023-04-07 @ Standard Liege II W 2-156.4 1578 1497 44.60% 23.60% 31.80%+0.34 +5.9 10
2023-04-07 Dender L 0-448.2 1544 1525 45.61% 23.54% 30.85%+0.25 -29.8 5
2023-04-07 @ Genk II W 4-048.2 1525 1544 30.85% 23.54% 45.61%-0.25 +29.8 13
2023-04-08 Anderlecht II W 4-150.4 1712 1574 60.06% 21.33% 18.60%+0.96 +9.0 15
2023-04-08 @ Beveren L 1-450.4 1574 1712 18.60% 21.33% 60.06%-0.96 -9.0 1
2023-04-08 Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-159.1 1608 1550 50.79% 23.03% 26.17%+0.49 -9.1 12
2023-04-08 @ Club NXT W 1-059.1 1550 1608 26.17% 23.03% 50.79%-0.49 +9.1 6
2023-04-09 Beerschot W 4-045.5 1695 1580 57.59% 21.90% 20.51%+0.82 +15.3 13
2023-04-09 @ RWD Molenbeek L 0-445.5 1580 1695 20.51% 21.90% 57.59%-0.82 -15.3 5
2023-04-09 Lommel L 0-145.7 1427 1555 26.12% 23.03% 50.85%-0.62 -5.3 7
2023-04-09 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-045.7 1555 1427 50.85% 23.03% 26.12%+0.62 +5.3 10
2023-04-14 Club NXT W 4-049.0 1565 1599 38.18% 23.79% 38.03%-0.06 +25.8 8
2023-04-14 @ Beerschot L 0-449.0 1599 1565 38.03% 23.79% 38.18%+0.06 -25.8 12
2023-04-14 Deinze W 4-153.5 1561 1584 39.78% 23.78% 36.44%+0.00 +16.1 13
2023-04-14 @ Lommel L 1-453.5 1584 1561 36.44% 23.78% 39.78%+0.00 -16.1 10
2023-04-15 Genk II D 0-058.9 1491 1514 39.82% 23.78% 36.40%+0.00 -0.1 6
2023-04-15 @ Standard Liege II D 0-058.9 1514 1491 36.40% 23.78% 39.82%+0.00 +0.1 6
2023-04-15 Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-273.3 1565 1559 43.88% 23.64% 32.48%+0.18 -0.3 2
2023-04-15 @ Anderlecht II D 2-273.3 1559 1565 32.48% 23.64% 43.88%-0.18 +0.3 7
2023-04-16 Dender L 0-145.3 1421 1555 25.60% 22.95% 51.45%-0.65 -5.2 7
2023-04-16 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-045.3 1555 1421 51.45% 22.95% 25.60%+0.65 +5.2 16
2023-04-16 Beveren D 1-172.1 1711 1721 41.62% 23.74% 34.64%+0.08 -0.3 14
2023-04-16 @ RWD Molenbeek D 1-172.1 1721 1711 34.64% 23.74% 41.62%-0.08 +0.3 16
2023-04-21 Anderlecht II D 0-063.6 1573 1565 44.25% 23.62% 32.13%+0.19 -0.5 13
2023-04-21 @ Club NXT D 0-063.6 1565 1573 32.13% 23.62% 44.25%-0.19 +0.5 3
2023-04-21 Lommel L 2-363.3 1514 1577 34.23% 23.72% 42.05%-0.23 -5.9 6
2023-04-21 @ Genk II W 3-263.3 1577 1514 42.05% 23.72% 34.23%+0.23 +5.9 16
2023-04-21 Standard Liege II D 0-060.9 1560 1491 52.16% 22.85% 24.98%+0.55 -1.2 17
2023-04-21 @ Dender D 0-060.9 1491 1560 24.98% 22.85% 52.16%-0.55 +1.2 7
2023-04-22 Beerschot W 3-045.4 1721 1591 59.29% 21.52% 19.19%+0.91 +11.0 19
2023-04-22 @ Beveren L 0-345.4 1591 1721 19.19% 21.52% 59.29%-0.91 -11.0 8
2023-04-22 Excelsior Virton W 3-144.1 1568 1416 61.54% 20.95% 17.51%+1.04 +6.0 13
2023-04-22 @ Deinze L 1-344.1 1416 1568 17.51% 20.95% 61.54%-1.04 -6.0 7
2023-04-22 RWD Molenbeek L 0-346.5 1560 1710 23.78% 22.64% 53.59%-0.76 -13.4 7
2023-04-22 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-046.5 1710 1560 53.59% 22.64% 23.78%+0.76 +13.4 17
2023-05-05 Beerschot L 0-251.6 1565 1580 41.07% 23.75% 35.18%+0.06 -14.4 3
2023-05-05 @ Anderlecht II W 2-051.6 1580 1565 35.18% 23.75% 41.07%-0.06 +14.4 11
2023-05-05 Excelsior Virton D 1-159.7 1492 1410 53.71% 22.62% 23.67%+0.63 -1.2 8
2023-05-05 @ Standard Liege II D 1-159.7 1410 1492 23.67% 22.62% 53.71%-0.63 +1.2 8
2023-05-06 Deinze L 0-247.4 1508 1574 33.83% 23.71% 42.46%-0.25 -12.4 6
2023-05-06 @ Genk II W 2-047.4 1574 1508 42.46% 23.71% 33.83%+0.25 +12.4 16
2023-05-06 Lommel W 2-160.0 1559 1583 39.69% 23.78% 36.53%+0.00 +6.6 20
2023-05-06 @ Dender L 1-260.0 1583 1559 36.53% 23.78% 39.69%+0.00 -6.6 16
2023-05-06 RWD Molenbeek L 1-355.2 1573 1724 23.78% 22.64% 53.58%-0.75 -8.0 13
2023-05-06 @ Club NXT W 3-155.2 1724 1573 53.58% 22.64% 23.78%+0.75 +8.0 20
2023-05-07 Beveren L 2-363.1 1546 1732 20.43% 21.88% 57.69%-0.96 -3.8 7
2023-05-07 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-263.1 1732 1546 57.69% 21.88% 20.43%+0.96 +3.8 22
2023-05-12 Dender W 3-264.0 1586 1565 45.91% 23.52% 30.58%+0.26 +5.4 19
2023-05-12 @ Deinze L 2-364.0 1565 1586 30.58% 23.52% 45.91%-0.26 -5.4 20
2023-05-12 Genk II W 3-150.4 1411 1496 31.39% 23.57% 45.04%-0.36 +13.4 11
2023-05-12 @ Excelsior Virton L 1-350.4 1496 1411 45.04% 23.57% 31.39%+0.36 -13.4 6
2023-05-12 Standard Liege II W 6-145.5 1576 1491 54.12% 22.55% 23.32%+0.65 +17.6 19
2023-05-12 @ Lommel L 1-645.5 1491 1576 23.32% 22.55% 54.12%-0.65 -17.6 8
2023-05-13 Anderlecht II W 1-050.1 1732 1551 64.48% 20.10% 15.42%+1.21 +3.2 23
2023-05-13 @ RWD Molenbeek L 0-150.1 1551 1732 15.42% 20.10% 64.48%-1.21 -3.2 3
2023-05-13 Club NXT W 4-149.6 1736 1565 63.51% 20.39% 16.10%+1.15 +7.8 25
2023-05-13 @ Beveren L 1-449.6 1565 1736 16.10% 20.39% 63.51%-1.15 -7.8 13
2023-05-13 Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-263.7 1594 1542 49.96% 23.14% 26.91%+0.45 -8.5 11
2023-05-13 @ Beerschot W 2-163.7 1542 1594 26.91% 23.14% 49.96%-0.45 +8.5 10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-09-11 17.58% Excelsior Virton 1467 1 @ Genk II 1618 0
2 2023-04-02 17.72% Excelsior Virton 1416 2 @ Lommel 1565 1
3 2022-11-27 19.17% Lommel 1532 3 @ Beveren 1663 2
4 2023-01-21 20.14% Excelsior Virton 1422 4 @ Dender 1541 3
5 2022-12-03 20.16% Club NXT 1530 2 @ RWD Molenbeek 1649 0
6 2022-10-22 20.18% Dender 1545 2 @ Anderlecht II 1664 0
7 2022-08-26 24.30% Lommel 1567 3 @ Genk II 1643 0
8 2022-11-26 25.20% Beerschot 1588 2 @ Anderlecht II 1655 1
9 2022-10-15 25.26% Club NXT 1504 4 @ Lommel 1570 3
10 2022-09-30 25.84% Dender 1546 2 @ Genk II 1607 0
11 2023-04-08 26.17% Lierse Kempenzonen 1550 1 @ Club NXT 1608 0
12 2023-02-25 26.20% @ Club NXT 1567 3 Beveren 1695 0
13 2023-03-11 26.35% @ Excelsior Virton 1406 1 Standard Liege II 1532 0
14 2022-11-25 26.83% @ Genk II 1544 2 RWD Molenbeek 1666 0
15 2023-03-03 26.84% Club NXT 1592 2 @ Anderlecht II 1644 1
16 2023-05-13 26.91% Lierse Kempenzonen 1542 2 @ Beerschot 1594 1
17 2022-09-16 28.04% Dender 1529 2 @ Deinze 1571 0
18 2022-12-02 28.64% Lierse Kempenzonen 1533 4 @ Standard Liege II 1569 2
19 2022-08-28 28.96% @ Club NXT 1485 2 RWD Molenbeek 1589 1
20 2022-08-28 29.37% Lierse Kempenzonen 1536 3 @ Beerschot 1567 2
21 2022-11-20 29.39% @ Dender 1563 2 Anderlecht II 1663 1
22 2022-10-09 29.42% @ Club NXT 1490 3 Genk II 1590 1
23 2022-09-04 29.65% Beveren 1565 2 @ Lommel 1593 0
24 2022-10-22 29.84% Beerschot 1557 2 @ Genk II 1583 1
25 2022-10-16 30.00% @ Genk II 1576 3 Anderlecht II 1671 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-04-07 29.76 Dender 4 1525 30.85% @ Genk II 0 1544 45.61% 23.54%
2 2022-10-02 26.33 @ Beveren 5 1588 46.53% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1562 30.00% 23.47%
3 2023-04-01 26.01 @ Deinze 5 1552 47.02% Standard Liege II 0 1523 29.55% 23.43%
4 2022-08-26 25.85 Lommel 3 1567 24.30% @ Genk II 0 1643 52.97% 22.73%
5 2023-04-14 25.77 @ Beerschot 4 1565 38.18% Club NXT 0 1599 38.03% 23.79%
6 2023-02-25 24.92 @ Club NXT 3 1567 26.20% Beveren 0 1695 50.76% 23.04%
7 2023-03-18 24.59 RWD Molenbeek 4 1672 40.45% @ Anderlecht II 0 1620 35.78% 23.77%
8 2022-12-17 21.56 Lommel 3 1554 33.68% @ Standard Liege II 0 1551 42.62% 23.70%
9 2023-03-31 21.40 Beveren 4 1690 46.46% @ Anderlecht II 0 1596 30.07% 23.47%
10 2022-10-08 20.52 @ Deinze 3 1542 36.21% Lommel 0 1591 40.02% 23.77%
11 2022-11-13 20.07 @ RWD Molenbeek 5 1646 55.81% Lommel 0 1546 21.93% 22.25%
12 2022-10-14 19.29 RWD Molenbeek 4 1594 30.63% @ Standard Liege II 1 1614 45.85% 23.52%
13 2022-12-03 19.27 Club NXT 2 1530 20.16% @ RWD Molenbeek 0 1649 58.04% 21.80%
14 2022-10-22 19.26 Dender 2 1545 20.18% @ Anderlecht II 0 1664 58.01% 21.81%
15 2022-10-07 18.86 Beveren 3 1614 40.37% @ Dender 0 1563 35.86% 23.77%
16 2022-08-12 18.58 Lommel 4 1561 32.57% @ Dender 1 1567 43.78% 23.65%
17 2022-11-13 18.27 Beveren 5 1645 45.50% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1 1558 30.96% 23.54%
18 2022-11-25 17.82 @ Club NXT 4 1512 34.73% Dender 1 1571 41.53% 23.74%
19 2022-10-28 17.62 @ Deinze 4 1544 35.29% Standard Liege II 1 1599 40.96% 23.75%
20 2023-05-12 17.57 @ Lommel 6 1576 54.12% Standard Liege II 1 1491 23.32% 22.55%
21 2022-09-03 17.50 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 4 1544 35.65% Deinze 1 1596 40.59% 23.76%
22 2022-09-30 17.28 Dender 2 1546 25.84% @ Genk II 0 1607 51.17% 22.99%
23 2022-11-25 16.95 @ Genk II 2 1544 26.83% RWD Molenbeek 0 1666 50.04% 23.13%
24 2022-09-16 16.56 Dender 2 1529 28.04% @ Deinze 0 1571 48.69% 23.27%
25 2023-04-14 16.10 @ Lommel 4 1561 39.78% Deinze 1 1584 36.44% 23.78%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-01-22 79.7 @ Anderlecht II 3 1634 53.75% Lierse Kempenzonen 3 1552 23.64% 22.61%
2 2022-09-02 76.5 @ Standard Liege II 2 1644 46.69% Genk II 2 1617 29.86% 23.46%
3 2023-02-03 76.2 @ Genk II 2 1547 24.65% Beveren 2 1689 52.56% 22.80%
4 2023-01-29 76.0 @ Standard Liege II 2 1530 22.81% Beveren 2 1690 54.74% 22.45%
5 2022-08-27 75.9 @ Anderlecht II 2 1651 54.38% Beveren 2 1564 23.12% 22.51%
6 2022-09-02 75.9 @ RWD Molenbeek 2 1581 33.35% Anderlecht II 2 1650 42.96% 23.69%
7 2023-02-03 75.7 @ Anderlecht II 2 1639 52.38% Lommel 2 1569 24.80% 22.82%
8 2022-08-19 75.6 @ Standard Liege II 2 1639 52.62% Beerschot 2 1566 24.59% 22.79%
9 2022-11-11 75.1 @ Club NXT 2 1516 24.06% Anderlecht II 2 1664 53.24% 22.69%
10 2022-08-13 73.8 @ Club NXT 2 1494 24.30% Standard Liege II 2 1640 52.97% 22.73%
11 2023-04-15 73.3 @ Anderlecht II 2 1565 43.88% Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1559 32.48% 23.64%
12 2022-11-27 73.1 Lommel 3 1532 19.17% @ Beveren 2 1663 59.32% 21.51%
13 2023-04-16 72.1 @ RWD Molenbeek 1 1711 41.62% Beveren 1 1721 34.64% 23.74%
14 2022-09-30 71.9 @ Excelsior Virton 3 1472 40.56% Club NXT 3 1489 35.68% 23.76%
15 2022-09-17 71.8 @ Club NXT 2 1489 29.55% Beveren 2 1588 47.03% 23.43%
16 2023-02-19 71.8 @ Genk II 2 1553 47.00% Standard Liege II 2 1524 29.57% 23.43%
17 2022-11-19 71.3 @ Beveren 1 1664 42.77% RWD Molenbeek 1 1666 33.54% 23.69%
18 2022-10-16 70.9 @ Genk II 3 1576 30.00% Anderlecht II 2 1671 46.53% 23.47%
19 2022-10-15 70.8 Club NXT 4 1504 25.26% @ Lommel 3 1570 51.85% 22.90%
20 2023-04-02 70.8 @ Beerschot 1 1579 27.44% RWD Molenbeek 1 1696 49.35% 23.20%
21 2022-08-20 70.4 @ Beveren 2 1565 55.96% Excelsior Virton 2 1464 21.81% 22.22%
22 2022-08-19 69.4 @ Deinze 3 1591 34.72% Genk II 2 1650 41.55% 23.74%
23 2022-09-17 69.1 @ RWD Molenbeek 1 1589 40.50% Genk II 1 1607 35.73% 23.76%
24 2022-09-10 68.6 @ Anderlecht II 1 1650 62.70% Club NXT 1 1487 16.67% 20.63%
25 2023-01-21 68.3 Excelsior Virton 4 1422 20.14% @ Dender 3 1541 58.06% 21.80%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-11-12 38.2 @ Beerschot 3 1572 58.34% Excelsior Virton 0 1450 19.93% 21.74%
2 2022-11-18 42.2 Standard Liege II 2 1567 50.84% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1438 26.14% 23.03%
3 2023-02-05 43.1 @ Club NXT 1 1563 60.25% Excelsior Virton 0 1424 18.47% 21.29%
4 2023-04-22 44.1 @ Deinze 3 1568 61.54% Excelsior Virton 1 1416 17.51% 20.95%
5 2023-04-01 44.8 @ Deinze 5 1552 47.02% Standard Liege II 0 1523 29.55% 23.43%
6 2022-12-11 45.1 @ RWD Molenbeek 3 1630 66.88% Excelsior Virton 1 1424 13.82% 19.30%
7 2023-02-12 45.2 Genk II 1 1548 50.71% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1420 26.25% 23.05%
8 2023-04-16 45.3 Dender 1 1555 51.45% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1421 25.60% 22.95%
9 2023-04-22 45.4 @ Beveren 3 1721 59.29% Beerschot 0 1591 19.19% 21.52%
10 2023-04-09 45.5 @ RWD Molenbeek 4 1695 57.59% Beerschot 0 1580 20.51% 21.90%
11 2023-05-12 45.5 @ Lommel 6 1576 54.12% Standard Liege II 1 1491 23.32% 22.55%
12 2022-10-30 45.6 @ RWD Molenbeek 3 1625 51.35% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1562 25.69% 22.96%
13 2022-11-13 45.6 @ RWD Molenbeek 5 1646 55.81% Lommel 0 1546 21.93% 22.25%
14 2023-04-09 45.7 Lommel 1 1555 50.85% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1427 26.12% 23.03%
15 2022-12-03 45.9 Lommel 1 1542 48.76% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1429 27.97% 23.27%
16 2022-10-30 46.3 @ Beveren 3 1626 49.84% Genk II 0 1575 27.01% 23.15%
17 2022-11-04 46.3 @ Anderlecht II 3 1650 52.13% Standard Liege II 0 1581 25.01% 22.86%
18 2023-04-22 46.5 RWD Molenbeek 3 1710 53.59% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1560 23.78% 22.64%
19 2023-03-17 47.1 @ Beveren 2 1682 57.88% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1565 20.28% 21.84%
20 2022-10-02 47.3 @ Beveren 5 1588 46.53% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1562 30.00% 23.47%
21 2022-10-28 47.4 @ Lommel 3 1551 54.42% Excelsior Virton 1 1463 23.08% 22.50%
22 2023-05-06 47.4 Deinze 2 1574 42.46% @ Genk II 0 1508 33.83% 23.71%
23 2022-12-02 47.5 @ Anderlecht II 2 1647 54.20% Genk II 0 1561 23.26% 22.54%
24 2023-01-28 47.7 Anderlecht II 3 1633 59.52% @ Excelsior Virton 1 1430 19.02% 21.46%
25 2023-02-24 47.7 @ Dender 2 1511 55.45% Excelsior Virton 1 1415 22.23% 22.32%