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2019-20 Premier League of Bosnia and Herzegovina Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Sarajevo

45 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 2018-19

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Velez Mostar

8.76 points above expected

32 points · 23.24 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Zvijezda 09

11.87 points below expected

8 points · 19.87 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sarajevo Champion 22 13 6 3 45 38 19 +19 41.34 +3.66
2 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 22 12 6 4 42 43 21 +22 38.52 +3.48
3 Zrinjski Mostar 22 11 5 6 38 30 12 +18 39.08 -1.08
4 Borac Banja Luka 22 10 6 6 36 29 23 +6 28.66 +7.34
5 Tuzla City 22 10 5 7 35 27 29 -2 31.80 +3.20
6 Radnik Bijeljina 22 10 4 8 34 34 21 +13 34.51 -0.51
7 Siroki Brijeg 22 8 8 6 32 31 26 +5 32.50 -0.50
8 Velez Mostar 22 9 5 8 32 25 23 +2 23.24 +8.76
9 Sloboda Tuzla 22 4 9 9 21 21 35 -14 23.20 -2.20
10 Mladost Doboj Kakanj 22 4 6 12 18 21 35 -14 23.35 -5.35
11 Celik Zenica* 22 5 5 12 17 17 33 -16 21.61 -4.61
12 Zvijezda 09 22 1 5 16 8 12 51 -39 19.87 -11.87

* Point deductions: Celik Zenica (-3 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Velez Mostar 32 23.24 +8.76
2 Borac Banja Luka 36 28.66 +7.34
3 Sarajevo 45 41.34 +3.66
4 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 42 38.52 +3.48
5 Tuzla City 35 31.80 +3.20

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Zvijezda 09 8 19.87 -11.87
2 Mladost Doboj Kakanj 18 23.35 -5.35
3 Celik Zenica 17 21.61 -4.61
4 Sloboda Tuzla 21 23.20 -2.20
5 Zrinjski Mostar 38 39.08 -1.08

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Velez Mostar 3 Dec 1 – Feb 22 1 in 169
2 Borac Banja Luka 5 Sep 29 – Nov 3 1 in 99
3 Radnik Bijeljina 4 Sep 25 – Oct 19 1 in 26
4 Siroki Brijeg 3 Nov 10 – Dec 1 1 in 19
5 Tuzla City 3 Aug 31 – Sep 21 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zvijezda 09 7 Sep 15 – Oct 25 1 in 91
2 Radnik Bijeljina 3 Aug 4 – Aug 19 1 in 17
3 Velez Mostar 3 Jul 20 – Aug 3 1 in 15
4 Celik Zenica 4 Nov 23 – Feb 23 1 in 14
5 Tuzla City 2 Oct 19 – Oct 27 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Borac Banja Luka 10 Sep 29 – Feb 23 1 in 30
2 Velez Mostar 5 Dec 1 – Mar 8 1 in 25
3 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 11 Jul 20 – Sep 28 1 in 21
4 Tuzla City 7 Aug 3 – Sep 21 1 in 15
5 Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3 Nov 30 – Feb 23 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zvijezda 09 14 Jul 20 – Oct 25 1 in 87
2 Sloboda Tuzla 13 Sep 21 – Feb 29 1 in 29
3 Siroki Brijeg 6 Aug 17 – Sep 21 1 in 23
4 Radnik Bijeljina 4 Dec 1 – Mar 1 1 in 17
5 Zrinjski Mostar 3 Sep 29 – Oct 19 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sarajevo 1494 45 +6 10 10.1 -0.1
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1433 42 +14 10 8.4 +1.6
Zrinjski Mostar 1419 38 +31 11 9.6 +1.4
Borac Banja Luka 1334 36 -28 7 7.7 -0.7
Tuzla City 1263 35 -8 5 5.6 -0.6
Radnik Bijeljina 1382 34 -37 5 9.3 -4.3
Velez Mostar 1328 32 +103 13 6.1 +6.9
Siroki Brijeg 1350 32 +8 8 8.5 -0.5
Sloboda Tuzla 1146 21 -2 5 5.6 -0.6
Celik Zenica 1117 20 -56 1 4.7 -3.7
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1138 18 +15 5 4.4 +0.6
Zvijezda 09 1059 8 -47 1 2.5 -1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BBL CZ MDK RB SAR SB ST TC VM ZS ZM Z0
Borac Banja Luka —
2-0-0
3.41
0-2-0
3.61
2-0-0
2.29
0-0-2
1.95
0-2-0
2.58
1-0-1
3.30
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.89
1-1-0
1.53
0-1-1
2.33
2-0-0
3.51
Celik Zenica
0-0-2
2.04
 —
1-0-1
2.96
0-1-1
1.51
0-1-1
1.48
2-0-0
1.83
0-1-1
2.73
0-1-1
2.15
1-0-1
3.11
0-0-2
1.75
0-0-2
1.35
1-1-0
3.01
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0-2-0
1.85
1-0-1
2.49
 —
0-0-2
1.80
0-0-2
1.18
0-0-2
1.72
1-1-0
2.40
0-0-2
2.15
1-1-0
2.82
0-0-2
1.95
0-1-1
1.37
1-1-0
3.10
Radnik Bijeljina
0-0-2
3.16
1-1-0
3.97
2-0-0
3.65
 —
0-1-1
1.89
0-1-1
3.00
1-0-1
3.33
2-0-0
2.43
1-0-1
3.68
0-1-1
2.31
1-0-1
2.26
2-0-0
4.13
Sarajevo
2-0-0
3.54
1-1-0
4.02
2-0-0
4.36
1-1-0
3.59
 —
1-1-0
3.61
1-1-0
4.24
1-0-1
3.41
2-0-0
4.29
0-0-2
3.09
1-1-0
3.01
1-1-0
4.53
Siroki Brijeg
0-2-0
2.86
0-0-2
3.64
2-0-0
3.75
1-1-0
2.46
0-1-1
1.86
 —
1-1-0
3.30
0-0-2
3.03
1-0-1
3.69
1-1-0
2.06
1-1-0
2.07
1-1-0
3.89
Sloboda Tuzla
1-0-1
2.20
1-1-0
2.72
0-1-1
3.05
1-0-1
2.14
0-1-1
1.26
0-1-1
2.17
 —
0-1-1
2.00
0-2-0
2.79
0-1-1
1.44
0-0-2
1.39
1-1-0
2.96
Tuzla City
1-0-1
2.90
1-1-0
3.31
2-0-0
3.31
0-0-2
3.02
1-0-1
2.07
2-0-0
2.41
1-1-0
3.46
 —
0-1-1
3.34
0-1-1
1.94
0-1-1
2.42
2-0-0
3.32
Velez Mostar
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.34
0-1-1
2.62
1-0-1
1.81
0-0-2
1.24
1-0-1
1.77
0-2-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.10
 —
1-1-0
1.23
1-0-1
1.39
2-0-0
3.21
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0-1-1
3.95
2-0-0
3.74
2-0-0
3.55
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
2.37
0-1-1
3.41
1-1-0
4.06
1-1-0
3.54
0-1-1
4.28
 —
1-0-1
2.78
2-0-0
4.51
Zrinjski Mostar
1-1-0
3.14
2-0-0
4.15
1-1-0
4.15
1-0-1
3.18
0-1-1
2.44
0-1-1
3.40
2-0-0
4.13
1-1-0
3.03
1-0-1
4.11
1-0-1
2.67
 —
1-0-1
4.39
Zvijezda 09
0-0-2
1.94
0-1-1
2.45
0-1-1
2.36
0-0-2
1.40
0-1-1
1.02
0-1-1
1.61
0-1-1
2.49
0-0-2
2.20
0-0-2
2.29
0-0-2
1.03
1-0-1
1.13
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +11.8
Allowed 0.81 -10.0
Differential 0.92 +6.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.36%8.33%6.82%5.30%1.89%0.38%34.09%
18.33%9.09%7.95%2.65%0.38%0.76%29.17%
26.82%7.95%5.30%1.14%0.38%0.76%22.35%
35.30%2.65%1.14%0.76%——9.85%
41.89%0.38%0.38%———2.65%
5+0.38%0.76%0.76%———1.89%
Total34.09%29.17%22.35%9.85%2.65%1.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.24 1.24 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.23 1.87
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—27.27%
14.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%——27.27%
213.64%13.64%4.55%———31.82%
34.55%9.09%————13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%36.36%18.18%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.05 +0.27
SD 1.04 1.09 1.67
CV 0.79 1.04 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%18.18%9.09%——45.45%
19.09%4.55%13.64%4.55%——31.82%
24.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%18.18%36.36%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 1.50 -0.73
SD 0.81 1.19 1.42
CV 1.05 0.79 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%—45.45%
14.55%13.64%9.09%———27.27%
24.55%—4.55%9.09%——18.18%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total18.18%31.82%27.27%18.18%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 1.59 -0.64
SD 1.13 1.14 1.59
CV 1.19 0.72 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
19.09%9.09%13.64%———31.82%
2—4.55%————4.55%
313.64%—4.55%———18.18%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total36.36%36.36%22.73%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 0.95 +0.59
SD 1.57 0.90 1.99
CV 1.01 0.94 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%—————13.64%
19.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
213.64%18.18%———4.55%36.36%
313.64%—————13.64%
4———————
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total50.00%31.82%9.09%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 0.86 +0.86
SD 1.32 1.25 1.67
CV 0.76 1.44 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
14.55%9.09%—4.55%——18.18%
24.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total31.82%31.82%22.73%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.18 +0.23
SD 1.33 1.05 1.63
CV 0.95 0.89 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%—13.64%9.09%4.55%—40.91%
14.55%13.64%9.09%———27.27%
2—9.09%13.64%4.55%——27.27%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%27.27%36.36%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 1.59 -0.64
SD 0.95 1.10 1.50
CV 1.00 0.69 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%—36.36%
118.18%4.55%4.55%———27.27%
2—13.64%4.55%——4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total36.36%31.82%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.32 -0.09
SD 1.31 1.55 2.09
CV 1.06 1.18 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%————22.73%
113.64%4.55%13.64%9.09%——40.91%
213.64%13.64%9.09%———36.36%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%31.82%22.73%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.05 +0.09
SD 0.77 1.00 1.23
CV 0.68 0.96 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—4.55%4.55%——18.18%
113.64%4.55%9.09%———27.27%
29.09%4.55%9.09%———22.73%
39.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+4.55%—4.55%———9.09%
Total50.00%13.64%27.27%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 0.95 +1.00
SD 1.62 1.09 2.05
CV 0.83 1.14 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%18.18%4.55%———36.36%
19.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
213.64%4.55%————18.18%
313.64%—————13.64%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+———————
Total59.09%31.82%4.55%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 0.55 +0.82
SD 1.36 0.80 1.84
CV 1.00 1.47 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%13.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%54.55%
1—13.64%9.09%—4.55%9.09%36.36%
24.55%—4.55%———9.09%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total9.09%27.27%27.27%13.64%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.55 2.32 -1.77
SD 0.67 1.64 1.85
CV 1.23 0.71 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sarajevo 1494 45 41.34 +3.66 77.0% 28 31 37 42 45 52 54
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1433 42 38.52 +3.48 74.0% 24 28 34 38 43 48 57
Zrinjski Mostar 1419 38 39.08 -1.08 43.0% 26 28 34 39 43 49 52
Radnik Bijeljina 1382 34 34.51 -0.51 48.0% 21 25 30 35 39 43 48
Siroki Brijeg 1350 32 32.50 -0.50 49.0% 13 23 28 33 36 43 47
Borac Banja Luka 1334 36 28.66 +7.34 90.0% 12 19 24 29 33 38 41
Velez Mostar 1328 32 23.24 +8.76 95.0% 11 14 20 23 27 32 34
Tuzla City 1263 35 31.80 +3.20 74.0% 16 22 28 32 36 40 44
Sloboda Tuzla 1146 21 23.20 -2.20 38.0% 9 15 19 23 26 32 36
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1138 18 23.35 -5.35 20.0% 11 14 19 23 27 32 41
Celik Zenica 1117 17 21.61 -4.61 22.0% 8 13 18 21 25 29 35
Zvijezda 09 1059 8 19.87 -11.87 0.0% 10 12 16 19 24 28 32

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 28% * Slight Edge: 28% to 37% * Clear Edge: 37% to 51.5% * Strong Edge: 51.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+26.52%
No Edge
50.00%26.52%23.48%
Elo Value
Home Edge
197 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
094.38500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.45 goals
Neutral
-2+0.48+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.8
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
37%
Sarajevo, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Tight Race
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.52 * Some Luck: 4.52 to 6.78 * Lucky: 6.78 to 9.04 * Wild Swing: 9.04 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.36 * Close: 1.36 to 2.04 * Off: 2.04 to 2.72 * Way Off: 2.72 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.50 points
Some Luck
05.6514
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
01.704
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
95.00%
Velez Mostar
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.00%
Zvijezda 09
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.45 * Moderate Separation: 1.45 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2 * Wide Separation: 2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 64.5% * Slight Edge: 64.5% to 70.5% * Clear Edge: 70.5% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55.5% * Some Drama: 55.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 16.5% * Frequent: 16.5% to 21% * Very Frequent: 21% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 142.19
1.84
Strong Separation
0.851.451.822.75
Interquartile Edge
81%
Wide Edge
50%64.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
92%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Frequent
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.48 * Notable Separation: 0.48 to 0.54 * Lopsided: 0.54 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.42 * Some Carryover: 0.42 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.79 * Near-Lock: 0.79 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 15.5% * Upset-Prone: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 19.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 10.5% * As Expected: 10.5% to 13% * Shaky Favorites: 13% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.03
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.60
Some Carryover
00.420.610.791
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Very Shaky
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.24
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.92
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.061
Well Within Noise
00.1420.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Sarajevo37.00%25.00%17.00%10.00%4.00%5.00%2.00%—————
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo20.00%24.00%21.00%17.00%7.00%5.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%———
Zrinjski Mostar28.00%21.00%19.00%13.00%7.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%————
Borac Banja Luka—3.00%4.00%11.00%16.00%17.00%12.00%11.00%14.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%
Tuzla City2.00%5.00%6.00%21.00%16.00%14.00%14.00%12.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%2.00%
Radnik Bijeljina7.00%17.00%20.00%7.00%19.00%10.00%9.00%7.00%3.00%—1.00%—
Siroki Brijeg6.00%5.00%11.00%16.00%18.00%9.00%19.00%7.00%5.00%3.00%—1.00%
Velez Mostar———2.00%7.00%8.00%8.00%11.00%23.00%13.00%16.00%12.00%
Sloboda Tuzla———1.00%2.00%10.00%10.00%14.00%11.00%21.00%21.00%10.00%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj——2.00%1.00%3.00%9.00%8.00%12.00%16.00%19.00%18.00%12.00%
Celik Zenica———1.00%1.00%4.00%6.00%11.00%10.00%27.00%17.00%23.00%
Zvijezda 09—————4.00%4.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%22.00%37.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Sarajevo 100% —
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 100% —
Zrinjski Mostar 100% —
Radnik Bijeljina 99.00% 1.00%
Siroki Brijeg 99.00% 1.00%
Tuzla City 97.00% 3.00%
Borac Banja Luka 93.00% 7.00%
Velez Mostar 72.00% 28.00%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 70.00% 30.00%
Sloboda Tuzla 69.00% 31.00%
Celik Zenica 60.00% 40.00%
Zvijezda 09 41.00% 59.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2019-07-20 Borac Banja Luka D 0-049.4 1348 1220 61.98% 25.06% 12.96%+1.13 -5.4 1
2019-07-20 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo D 0-049.4 1220 1348 12.96% 25.06% 61.98%-1.13 +5.4 1
2019-07-20 Mladost Doboj Kakanj L 1-347.5 1201 1246 43.26% 27.94% 28.81%+0.25 -30.8 0
2019-07-20 @ Velez Mostar W 3-147.5 1246 1201 28.81% 27.94% 43.26%-0.25 +30.8 3
2019-07-20 Tuzla City L 1-545.1 1282 1276 49.59% 27.44% 22.97%+0.51 -63.0 0
2019-07-20 @ Zvijezda 09 W 5-145.1 1276 1282 22.97% 27.44% 49.59%-0.51 +63.0 3
2019-07-21 Radnik Bijeljina W 2-146.8 1237 1289 42.36% 27.98% 29.67%+0.22 +13.4 3
2019-07-21 @ Sloboda Tuzla L 1-246.8 1289 1237 29.67% 27.98% 42.36%-0.22 -13.4 0
2019-07-21 Zrinjski Mostar W 1-040.6 1425 1380 53.98% 26.85% 19.17%+0.71 +10.0 3
2019-07-21 @ Sarajevo L 0-140.6 1380 1425 19.17% 26.85% 53.98%-0.71 -10.0 0
2019-07-22 Celik Zenica L 0-149.7 1340 1219 61.34% 25.24% 13.42%+1.09 -25.5 0
2019-07-22 @ Siroki Brijeg W 1-049.7 1219 1340 13.42% 25.24% 61.34%-1.09 +25.5 3
2019-07-27 Siroki Brijeg D 2-259.4 1251 1314 40.76% 28.04% 31.20%+0.16 -0.6 4
2019-07-27 @ Sloboda Tuzla D 2-259.4 1314 1251 31.20% 28.04% 40.76%-0.16 +0.6 1
2019-07-27 Tuzla City W 3-036.8 1276 1339 40.79% 28.04% 31.17%+0.16 +40.4 3
2019-07-27 @ Radnik Bijeljina L 0-336.8 1339 1276 31.17% 28.04% 40.79%-0.16 -40.4 3
2019-07-27 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo L 0-241.5 1277 1342 40.51% 28.05% 31.44%+0.15 -33.8 3
2019-07-27 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj W 2-041.5 1342 1277 31.44% 28.05% 40.51%-0.15 +33.8 4
2019-07-27 Zvijezda 09 W 1-038.4 1225 1219 49.69% 27.43% 22.89%+0.51 +11.6 4
2019-07-27 @ Borac Banja Luka L 0-138.4 1219 1225 22.89% 27.43% 49.69%-0.51 -11.6 0
2019-07-28 Sarajevo D 0-049.5 1245 1435 24.22% 27.58% 48.20%-0.49 +2.4 4
2019-07-28 @ Celik Zenica D 0-049.5 1435 1245 48.20% 27.58% 24.22%+0.49 -2.4 4
2019-07-28 Velez Mostar W 1-033.4 1370 1170 67.63% 23.09% 9.28%+1.50 +5.0 3
2019-07-28 @ Zrinjski Mostar L 0-133.4 1170 1370 9.28% 23.09% 67.63%-1.50 -5.0 0
2019-08-03 Borac Banja Luka W 2-142.8 1299 1237 55.83% 26.52% 17.65%+0.80 +8.8 6
2019-08-03 @ Tuzla City L 1-242.8 1237 1299 17.65% 26.52% 55.83%-0.80 -8.8 4
2019-08-03 Celik Zenica L 1-249.1 1165 1247 38.21% 28.10% 33.69%+0.06 -16.1 0
2019-08-03 @ Velez Mostar W 2-149.1 1247 1165 33.69% 28.10% 38.21%-0.06 +16.1 7
2019-08-03 Mladost Doboj Kakanj D 1-153.1 1207 1243 44.48% 27.87% 27.65%+0.30 -1.5 1
2019-08-03 @ Zvijezda 09 D 1-153.1 1243 1207 27.65% 27.87% 44.48%-0.30 +1.5 4
2019-08-03 Sloboda Tuzla W 3-029.8 1432 1250 66.30% 23.61% 10.09%+1.41 +14.9 7
2019-08-03 @ Sarajevo L 0-329.8 1250 1432 10.09% 23.61% 66.30%-1.41 -14.9 4
2019-08-04 Radnik Bijeljina W 3-034.6 1315 1316 48.81% 27.52% 23.68%+0.47 +32.7 4
2019-08-04 @ Siroki Brijeg L 0-334.6 1316 1315 23.68% 27.52% 48.81%-0.47 -32.7 3
2019-08-04 Zrinjski Mostar W 1-041.0 1376 1375 49.09% 27.49% 23.42%+0.49 +11.8 7
2019-08-04 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo L 0-141.0 1375 1376 23.42% 27.49% 49.09%-0.49 -11.8 3
2019-08-10 Borac Banja Luka L 1-254.0 1284 1228 55.16% 26.64% 18.19%+0.76 -21.9 3
2019-08-10 @ Radnik Bijeljina W 2-154.0 1228 1284 18.19% 26.64% 55.16%-0.76 +21.9 7
2019-08-10 Tuzla City L 0-144.4 1245 1308 40.84% 28.04% 31.12%+0.16 -18.0 4
2019-08-10 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj W 1-044.4 1308 1245 31.12% 28.04% 40.84%-0.16 +18.0 9
2019-08-10 Velez Mostar D 0-048.5 1235 1149 58.19% 26.04% 15.77%+0.92 -4.6 5
2019-08-10 @ Sloboda Tuzla D 0-048.5 1149 1235 15.77% 26.04% 58.19%-0.92 +4.6 1
2019-08-10 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo L 0-239.3 1263 1388 32.22% 28.07% 39.71%-0.15 -28.5 7
2019-08-10 @ Celik Zenica W 2-039.3 1388 1263 39.71% 28.07% 32.22%+0.15 +28.5 10
2019-08-17 Celik Zenica D 2-259.0 1206 1235 45.35% 27.81% 26.84%+0.33 -1.2 2
2019-08-17 @ Zvijezda 09 D 2-259.0 1235 1206 26.84% 27.81% 45.35%-0.33 +1.2 8
2019-08-17 Mladost Doboj Kakanj D 0-048.4 1250 1227 51.64% 27.19% 21.17%+0.60 -3.2 8
2019-08-17 @ Borac Banja Luka D 0-048.4 1227 1250 21.17% 27.19% 51.64%-0.60 +3.2 5
2019-08-17 Siroki Brijeg W 1-046.4 1154 1348 23.74% 27.53% 48.74%-0.51 +20.8 4
2019-08-17 @ Velez Mostar L 0-146.4 1348 1154 48.74% 27.53% 23.74%+0.51 -20.8 4
2019-08-17 Sloboda Tuzla D 2-261.3 1417 1231 66.60% 23.50% 9.90%+1.43 -4.2 11
2019-08-17 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo D 2-261.3 1231 1417 9.90% 23.50% 66.60%-1.43 +4.2 6
2019-08-18 Zrinjski Mostar D 0-049.6 1326 1363 44.28% 27.88% 27.84%+0.29 -1.6 10
2019-08-18 @ Tuzla City D 0-049.6 1363 1326 27.84% 27.88% 44.28%-0.29 +1.6 4
2019-08-19 Radnik Bijeljina W 2-141.0 1447 1262 66.55% 23.52% 9.93%+1.42 +5.1 10
2019-08-19 @ Sarajevo L 1-241.0 1262 1447 9.93% 23.52% 66.55%-1.42 -5.1 3
2019-08-24 Borac Banja Luka W 4-030.3 1365 1247 61.12% 25.30% 13.58%+1.08 +26.2 7
2019-08-24 @ Zrinjski Mostar L 0-430.3 1247 1365 13.58% 25.30% 61.12%-1.08 -26.2 8
2019-08-24 Mladost Doboj Kakanj W 3-032.8 1257 1230 52.07% 27.13% 20.80%+0.62 +29.4 6
2019-08-24 @ Radnik Bijeljina L 0-332.8 1230 1257 20.80% 27.13% 52.07%-0.62 -29.4 5
2019-08-24 Tuzla City D 0-048.4 1236 1324 37.36% 28.11% 34.53%+0.03 -0.3 9
2019-08-24 @ Celik Zenica D 0-048.4 1324 1236 34.53% 28.11% 37.36%-0.03 +0.3 11
2019-08-24 Velez Mostar W 2-138.3 1452 1174 72.84% 20.67% 6.49%+1.89 +3.2 13
2019-08-24 @ Sarajevo L 1-238.3 1174 1452 6.49% 20.67% 72.84%-1.89 -3.2 4
2019-08-24 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo D 3-364.7 1327 1412 37.75% 28.10% 34.14%+0.05 -0.2 5
2019-08-24 @ Siroki Brijeg D 3-364.7 1412 1327 34.14% 28.10% 37.75%-0.05 +0.2 12
2019-08-24 Zvijezda 09 W 1-037.6 1235 1205 52.44% 27.08% 20.48%+0.63 +10.6 9
2019-08-24 @ Sloboda Tuzla L 0-137.6 1205 1235 20.48% 27.08% 52.44%-0.63 -10.6 2
2019-08-28 Sarajevo D 0-051.0 1327 1455 31.70% 28.05% 40.24%-0.17 +0.8 6
2019-08-28 @ Siroki Brijeg D 0-051.0 1455 1327 40.24% 28.05% 31.70%+0.17 -0.8 14
2019-08-28 Zvijezda 09 W 3-028.6 1391 1194 67.42% 23.17% 9.40%+1.48 +13.9 10
2019-08-28 @ Zrinjski Mostar L 0-328.6 1194 1391 9.40% 23.17% 67.42%-1.48 -13.9 2
2019-08-31 Radnik Bijeljina L 0-141.9 1171 1286 33.55% 28.10% 38.35%-0.10 -15.6 4
2019-08-31 @ Velez Mostar W 1-041.9 1286 1171 38.35% 28.10% 33.55%+0.10 +15.6 9
2019-08-31 Sarajevo W 5-247.6 1412 1454 43.68% 27.91% 28.40%+0.27 +27.5 15
2019-08-31 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo L 2-547.6 1454 1412 28.40% 27.91% 43.68%-0.27 -27.5 14
2019-08-31 Siroki Brijeg D 0-048.3 1180 1328 29.22% 27.96% 42.83%-0.27 +1.3 3
2019-08-31 @ Zvijezda 09 D 0-048.3 1328 1180 42.83% 27.96% 29.22%+0.27 -1.3 7
2019-08-31 Sloboda Tuzla W 2-142.5 1324 1245 57.49% 26.19% 16.32%+0.88 +8.2 14
2019-08-31 @ Tuzla City L 1-242.5 1245 1324 16.32% 26.19% 57.49%-0.88 -8.2 9
2019-08-31 Zrinjski Mostar L 0-235.9 1200 1405 22.65% 27.40% 49.96%-0.56 -21.7 5
2019-08-31 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj W 2-035.9 1405 1200 49.96% 27.40% 22.65%+0.56 +21.7 13
2019-09-01 Celik Zenica W 3-142.0 1220 1236 47.07% 27.68% 25.25%+0.40 +20.5 11
2019-09-01 @ Borac Banja Luka L 1-342.0 1236 1220 25.25% 27.68% 47.07%-0.40 -20.5 9
2019-09-14 Borac Banja Luka W 3-141.6 1237 1241 48.51% 27.55% 23.94%+0.46 +19.7 12
2019-09-14 @ Sloboda Tuzla L 1-341.6 1241 1237 23.94% 27.55% 48.51%-0.46 -19.7 11
2019-09-14 Mladost Doboj Kakanj W 1-037.3 1215 1179 53.13% 26.98% 19.89%+0.67 +10.3 12
2019-09-14 @ Celik Zenica L 0-137.3 1179 1215 19.89% 26.98% 53.13%-0.67 -10.3 5
2019-09-14 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo D 1-154.3 1156 1440 15.61% 25.99% 58.40%-0.97 +4.1 5
2019-09-14 @ Velez Mostar D 1-154.3 1440 1156 58.40% 25.99% 15.61%+0.97 -4.2 16
2019-09-14 Zrinjski Mostar W 1-045.7 1302 1427 32.18% 28.07% 39.75%-0.16 +17.6 12
2019-09-14 @ Radnik Bijeljina L 0-145.7 1427 1302 39.75% 28.07% 32.18%+0.16 -17.6 13
2019-09-15 Tuzla City L 1-350.0 1326 1333 48.19% 27.58% 24.23%+0.45 -33.7 7
2019-09-15 @ Siroki Brijeg W 3-150.0 1333 1326 24.23% 27.58% 48.19%-0.45 +33.7 17
2019-09-15 Zvijezda 09 W 2-029.7 1427 1181 70.78% 21.70% 7.52%+1.73 +7.5 17
2019-09-15 @ Sarajevo L 0-229.7 1181 1427 7.52% 21.70% 70.78%-1.73 -7.5 3
2019-09-21 Radnik Bijeljina W 1-037.5 1436 1319 60.97% 25.35% 13.68%+1.07 +7.4 19
2019-09-21 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo L 0-137.5 1319 1436 13.68% 25.35% 60.97%-1.07 -7.4 12
2019-09-21 Sarajevo W 2-150.6 1366 1434 40.15% 28.06% 31.79%+0.13 +14.1 20
2019-09-21 @ Tuzla City L 1-250.6 1434 1366 31.79% 28.06% 40.15%-0.13 -14.1 17
2019-09-21 Siroki Brijeg D 1-153.3 1221 1293 39.71% 28.07% 32.23%+0.12 -0.6 12
2019-09-21 @ Borac Banja Luka D 1-153.3 1293 1221 32.23% 28.07% 39.71%-0.12 +0.6 8
2019-09-21 Sloboda Tuzla W 2-039.0 1168 1257 37.29% 28.11% 34.60%+0.03 +30.0 8
2019-09-21 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj L 0-239.0 1257 1168 34.60% 28.11% 37.29%-0.03 -30.1 12
2019-09-22 Celik Zenica W 3-029.3 1409 1226 66.40% 23.57% 10.02%+1.41 +14.8 16
2019-09-22 @ Zrinjski Mostar L 0-329.3 1226 1409 10.02% 23.57% 66.40%-1.41 -14.8 12
2019-09-22 Velez Mostar L 1-252.5 1174 1160 50.61% 27.32% 22.07%+0.55 -20.3 3
2019-09-22 @ Zvijezda 09 W 2-152.5 1160 1174 22.07% 27.32% 50.61%-0.55 +20.3 8
2019-09-25 Borac Banja Luka W 1-034.0 1420 1221 67.61% 23.10% 9.29%+1.50 +5.0 20
2019-09-25 @ Sarajevo L 0-134.0 1221 1420 9.29% 23.10% 67.61%-1.50 -5.0 12
2019-09-25 Celik Zenica W 2-141.6 1312 1211 59.59% 25.71% 14.71%+1.00 +7.5 15
2019-09-25 @ Radnik Bijeljina L 1-241.6 1211 1312 14.71% 25.71% 59.59%-1.00 -7.5 12
2019-09-25 Mladost Doboj Kakanj W 3-246.7 1293 1198 59.01% 25.85% 15.14%+0.96 +7.3 11
2019-09-25 @ Siroki Brijeg L 2-346.7 1198 1293 15.14% 25.85% 59.01%-0.96 -7.3 8
2019-09-25 Tuzla City W 2-152.8 1180 1380 23.08% 27.45% 49.47%-0.54 +19.9 11
2019-09-25 @ Velez Mostar L 1-252.8 1380 1180 49.47% 27.45% 23.08%+0.54 -19.9 20
2019-09-25 Zrinjski Mostar L 0-334.7 1227 1424 23.45% 27.49% 49.06%-0.52 -32.4 12
2019-09-25 @ Sloboda Tuzla W 3-034.7 1424 1227 49.06% 27.49% 23.45%+0.52 +32.4 19
2019-09-25 Zvijezda 09 W 6-027.6 1443 1154 73.57% 20.29% 6.14%+1.95 +16.6 22
2019-09-25 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo L 0-627.6 1154 1443 6.14% 20.29% 73.57%-1.95 -16.6 3
2019-09-28 Radnik Bijeljina L 1-439.1 1137 1319 25.04% 27.66% 47.30%-0.45 -28.8 3
2019-09-28 @ Zvijezda 09 W 4-139.1 1319 1137 47.30% 27.66% 25.04%+0.45 +28.8 18
2019-09-28 Sloboda Tuzla D 0-048.2 1203 1194 50.00% 27.39% 22.61%+0.53 -2.8 13
2019-09-28 @ Celik Zenica D 0-048.2 1194 1203 22.61% 27.39% 50.00%-0.53 +2.8 13
2019-09-28 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo D 2-262.8 1360 1460 35.74% 28.11% 36.14%-0.03 +0.0 21
2019-09-28 @ Tuzla City D 2-262.8 1460 1360 36.14% 28.11% 35.74%+0.03 -0.0 23
2019-09-29 Sarajevo L 0-333.1 1191 1425 19.75% 26.95% 53.30%-0.71 -28.1 8
2019-09-29 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj W 3-033.1 1425 1191 53.30% 26.95% 19.75%+0.71 +28.1 23
2019-09-29 Siroki Brijeg L 1-355.2 1456 1301 64.26% 24.34% 11.40%+1.27 -43.4 19
2019-09-29 @ Zrinjski Mostar W 3-155.2 1301 1456 11.40% 24.34% 64.26%-1.27 +43.4 14
2019-09-29 Velez Mostar W 3-140.8 1216 1200 50.79% 27.30% 21.91%+0.56 +18.3 15
2019-09-29 @ Borac Banja Luka L 1-340.8 1200 1216 21.91% 27.30% 50.79%-0.56 -18.3 11
2019-10-05 Sarajevo D 0-053.2 1413 1453 43.85% 27.90% 28.24%+0.27 -1.5 20
2019-10-05 @ Zrinjski Mostar D 0-053.2 1453 1413 28.24% 27.90% 43.85%-0.27 +1.5 24
2019-10-05 Siroki Brijeg W 2-041.6 1201 1344 29.75% 27.98% 42.27%-0.25 +34.9 16
2019-10-05 @ Celik Zenica L 0-241.6 1344 1201 42.27% 27.98% 29.75%+0.25 -34.9 14
2019-10-05 Sloboda Tuzla W 3-245.4 1348 1197 63.88% 24.47% 11.65%+1.25 +5.6 21
2019-10-05 @ Radnik Bijeljina L 2-345.4 1197 1348 11.65% 24.47% 63.88%-1.25 -5.7 13
2019-10-05 Zvijezda 09 W 3-027.0 1361 1108 71.23% 21.48% 7.29%+1.76 +10.5 24
2019-10-05 @ Tuzla City L 0-327.0 1108 1361 7.29% 21.48% 71.23%-1.76 -10.5 3
2019-10-06 Velez Mostar D 2-258.9 1163 1182 46.68% 27.71% 25.61%+0.39 -1.4 9
2019-10-06 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj D 2-258.9 1182 1163 25.61% 27.71% 46.68%-0.39 +1.4 12
2019-10-06 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo W 3-043.7 1234 1460 20.51% 27.08% 52.40%-0.67 +60.7 18
2019-10-06 @ Borac Banja Luka L 0-343.7 1460 1234 52.40% 27.08% 20.51%+0.67 -60.7 23
2019-10-18 Celik Zenica W 2-031.0 1455 1235 69.02% 22.50% 8.48%+1.60 +8.5 27
2019-10-18 @ Sarajevo L 0-231.0 1235 1455 8.48% 22.50% 69.02%-1.60 -8.6 16
2019-10-19 Borac Banja Luka L 0-235.4 1098 1295 23.45% 27.49% 49.06%-0.52 -22.3 3
2019-10-19 @ Zvijezda 09 W 2-035.4 1295 1098 49.06% 27.49% 23.45%+0.52 +22.3 21
2019-10-19 Mladost Doboj Kakanj W 2-138.6 1399 1162 70.25% 21.94% 7.80%+1.69 +3.9 26
2019-10-19 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo L 1-238.6 1162 1399 7.80% 21.94% 70.25%-1.69 -3.9 9
2019-10-19 Radnik Bijeljina L 0-343.7 1371 1354 50.96% 27.28% 21.76%+0.57 -59.2 24
2019-10-19 @ Tuzla City W 3-043.7 1354 1371 21.76% 27.28% 50.96%-0.57 +59.2 24
2019-10-19 Zrinjski Mostar W 1-047.9 1183 1411 20.30% 27.05% 52.65%-0.68 +22.2 15
2019-10-19 @ Velez Mostar L 0-147.9 1411 1183 52.65% 27.05% 20.30%+0.68 -22.2 20
2019-10-20 Sloboda Tuzla W 2-032.0 1309 1192 61.05% 25.32% 13.63%+1.08 +13.9 17
2019-10-20 @ Siroki Brijeg L 0-232.0 1192 1309 13.63% 25.32% 61.05%-1.08 -13.9 13
2019-10-25 Velez Mostar L 0-243.8 1227 1205 51.47% 27.21% 21.32%+0.59 -41.1 16
2019-10-25 @ Celik Zenica W 2-043.8 1205 1227 21.32% 27.21% 51.47%-0.59 +41.1 18
2019-10-25 Zvijezda 09 W 1-035.8 1158 1075 57.82% 26.12% 16.06%+0.90 +8.6 12
2019-10-25 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj L 0-135.8 1075 1158 16.06% 26.12% 57.82%-0.90 -8.6 3
2019-10-26 Siroki Brijeg D 0-050.8 1413 1323 58.56% 25.95% 15.48%+0.94 -4.7 25
2019-10-26 @ Radnik Bijeljina D 0-050.8 1323 1413 15.48% 25.95% 58.56%-0.94 +4.7 18
2019-10-26 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo W 2-148.3 1389 1403 47.24% 27.67% 25.10%+0.41 +11.8 23
2019-10-26 @ Zrinjski Mostar L 1-248.3 1403 1389 25.10% 27.67% 47.24%-0.41 -11.8 26
2019-10-27 Sarajevo D 1-154.6 1178 1464 15.51% 25.96% 58.53%-0.97 +4.2 14
2019-10-27 @ Sloboda Tuzla D 1-154.6 1464 1178 58.53% 25.96% 15.51%+0.97 -4.2 28
2019-10-27 Tuzla City W 2-036.2 1317 1312 49.55% 27.44% 23.01%+0.51 +22.0 24
2019-10-27 @ Borac Banja Luka L 0-236.2 1312 1317 23.01% 27.44% 49.55%-0.51 -22.0 24
2019-11-02 Mladost Doboj Kakanj W 1-034.9 1290 1166 61.59% 25.17% 13.24%+1.11 +7.2 27
2019-11-02 @ Tuzla City L 0-134.9 1166 1290 13.24% 25.17% 61.59%-1.11 -7.2 12
2019-11-02 Siroki Brijeg W 3-032.7 1459 1328 62.29% 24.97% 12.74%+1.15 +18.9 31
2019-11-02 @ Sarajevo L 0-332.7 1328 1459 12.74% 24.97% 62.29%-1.15 -18.9 18
2019-11-02 Sloboda Tuzla D 2-259.4 1246 1182 56.05% 26.48% 17.47%+0.81 -2.8 19
2019-11-02 @ Velez Mostar D 2-259.4 1182 1246 17.47% 26.48% 56.05%-0.81 +2.8 15
2019-11-02 Zrinjski Mostar W 2-046.5 1067 1401 12.37% 24.81% 62.82%-1.22 +49.2 6
2019-11-02 @ Zvijezda 09 L 0-246.5 1401 1067 62.82% 24.81% 12.37%+1.22 -49.2 23
2019-11-03 Celik Zenica W 3-028.4 1391 1186 68.03% 22.92% 9.04%+1.53 +13.3 29
2019-11-03 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo L 0-328.4 1186 1391 9.04% 22.92% 68.03%-1.53 -13.3 16
2019-11-03 Radnik Bijeljina W 2-040.5 1339 1408 39.96% 28.06% 31.98%+0.13 +28.4 27
2019-11-03 @ Borac Banja Luka L 0-240.5 1408 1339 31.98% 28.06% 39.96%-0.13 -28.4 25
2019-11-09 Sarajevo D 1-157.9 1380 1478 35.91% 28.11% 35.97%-0.02 +0.0 26
2019-11-09 @ Radnik Bijeljina D 1-157.9 1478 1380 35.97% 28.11% 35.91%+0.02 +0.0 32
2019-11-09 Tuzla City W 4-032.5 1352 1297 55.04% 26.67% 18.29%+0.76 +34.4 26
2019-11-09 @ Zrinjski Mostar L 0-432.5 1297 1352 18.29% 26.67% 55.04%-0.76 -34.4 27
2019-11-09 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo L 0-433.0 1185 1405 21.10% 27.18% 51.73%-0.64 -38.8 15
2019-11-09 @ Sloboda Tuzla W 4-033.0 1405 1185 51.73% 27.18% 21.10%+0.64 +38.8 32
2019-11-09 Zvijezda 09 W 2-142.5 1172 1116 55.25% 26.63% 18.13%+0.77 +9.0 19
2019-11-09 @ Celik Zenica L 1-242.5 1116 1172 18.13% 26.63% 55.25%-0.77 -9.0 6
2019-11-10 Borac Banja Luka D 1-153.5 1159 1367 22.27% 27.35% 50.38%-0.58 +2.6 13
2019-11-10 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj D 1-153.5 1367 1159 50.38% 27.35% 22.27%+0.58 -2.6 28
2019-11-10 Velez Mostar W 1-036.9 1309 1244 56.12% 26.47% 17.41%+0.81 +9.2 21
2019-11-10 @ Siroki Brijeg L 0-136.9 1244 1309 17.41% 26.47% 56.12%-0.81 -9.2 19
2019-11-23 Celik Zenica W 1-036.0 1263 1181 57.71% 26.14% 16.15%+0.89 +8.6 30
2019-11-23 @ Tuzla City L 0-136.0 1181 1263 16.15% 26.14% 57.71%-0.89 -8.6 19
2019-11-23 Radnik Bijeljina L 0-432.8 1162 1380 21.25% 27.20% 51.55%-0.63 -39.1 13
2019-11-23 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj W 4-032.8 1380 1162 51.55% 27.20% 21.25%+0.63 +39.1 29
2019-11-23 Sarajevo L 1-244.7 1234 1478 18.88% 26.79% 54.33%-0.76 -9.3 19
2019-11-23 @ Velez Mostar W 2-144.7 1478 1234 54.33% 26.79% 18.88%+0.76 +9.3 35
2019-11-23 Sloboda Tuzla D 1-152.9 1107 1146 44.08% 27.89% 28.03%+0.28 -1.4 7
2019-11-23 @ Zvijezda 09 D 1-152.9 1146 1107 28.03% 27.89% 44.08%-0.28 +1.4 16
2019-11-23 Zrinjski Mostar D 0-050.5 1365 1386 46.33% 27.74% 25.93%+0.37 -2.1 29
2019-11-23 @ Borac Banja Luka D 0-050.5 1386 1365 25.93% 27.74% 46.33%-0.37 +2.0 27
2019-11-24 Siroki Brijeg L 1-257.9 1443 1318 61.76% 25.13% 13.12%+1.12 -24.2 32
2019-11-24 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo W 2-157.9 1318 1443 13.12% 25.13% 61.76%-1.12 +24.2 24
2019-11-30 Mladost Doboj Kakanj D 1-155.3 1388 1123 72.07% 21.06% 6.86%+1.83 -6.6 28
2019-11-30 @ Zrinjski Mostar D 1-155.3 1123 1388 6.86% 21.06% 72.07%-1.83 +6.6 14
2019-11-30 Tuzla City D 1-153.0 1147 1271 32.31% 28.07% 39.62%-0.15 +0.6 17
2019-11-30 @ Sloboda Tuzla D 1-153.0 1271 1147 39.62% 28.07% 32.31%+0.15 -0.6 31
2019-11-30 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo L 1-357.3 1488 1419 56.44% 26.40% 17.16%+0.83 -38.7 35
2019-11-30 @ Sarajevo W 3-157.3 1419 1488 17.16% 26.40% 56.44%-0.83 +38.7 35
2019-12-01 Borac Banja Luka L 1-245.1 1173 1363 24.22% 27.58% 48.20%-0.49 -11.5 19
2019-12-01 @ Celik Zenica W 2-145.1 1363 1173 48.20% 27.58% 24.22%+0.49 +11.5 32
2019-12-01 Velez Mostar L 0-151.5 1419 1225 67.20% 23.26% 9.54%+1.47 -27.6 29
2019-12-01 @ Radnik Bijeljina W 1-051.5 1225 1419 9.54% 23.26% 67.20%-1.47 +27.6 22
2019-12-01 Zvijezda 09 W 4-026.9 1342 1105 70.19% 21.97% 7.84%+1.68 +14.9 27
2019-12-01 @ Siroki Brijeg L 0-426.9 1105 1342 7.84% 21.97% 70.19%-1.68 -14.9 7
2019-12-07 Celik Zenica W 4-246.0 1129 1161 44.96% 27.84% 27.21%+0.32 +19.5 17
2019-12-07 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj L 2-446.0 1161 1129 27.21% 27.84% 44.96%-0.32 -19.4 19
2019-12-07 Radnik Bijeljina W 1-041.8 1381 1391 47.74% 27.62% 24.64%+0.43 +12.3 31
2019-12-07 @ Zrinjski Mostar L 0-141.8 1391 1381 24.64% 27.62% 47.74%-0.43 -12.3 29
2019-12-07 Sarajevo D 1-154.5 1091 1449 11.05% 24.16% 64.79%-1.34 +5.4 8
2019-12-07 @ Zvijezda 09 D 1-154.5 1449 1091 64.79% 24.16% 11.05%+1.34 -5.4 36
2019-12-07 Siroki Brijeg W 1-042.9 1271 1357 37.60% 28.11% 34.30%+0.04 +15.8 34
2019-12-07 @ Tuzla City L 0-142.9 1357 1271 34.30% 28.11% 37.60%-0.04 -15.8 27
2019-12-07 Velez Mostar L 0-249.2 1458 1253 68.01% 22.93% 9.06%+1.52 -52.6 35
2019-12-07 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo W 2-049.2 1253 1458 9.06% 22.93% 68.01%-1.52 +52.6 25
2019-12-08 Sloboda Tuzla W 2-138.7 1374 1148 69.48% 22.30% 8.23%+1.63 +4.1 35
2019-12-08 @ Borac Banja Luka L 1-238.7 1148 1374 8.23% 22.30% 69.48%-1.63 -4.1 17
2020-02-22 Tuzla City W 6-235.6 1444 1286 64.37% 24.31% 11.32%+1.28 +15.5 39
2020-02-22 @ Sarajevo L 2-635.6 1286 1444 11.32% 24.31% 64.37%-1.28 -15.5 34
2020-02-22 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo D 0-051.1 1379 1405 45.73% 27.78% 26.49%+0.35 -1.9 30
2020-02-22 @ Radnik Bijeljina D 0-051.1 1405 1379 26.49% 27.78% 45.73%-0.35 +1.9 36
2020-02-22 Zvijezda 09 W 2-029.6 1305 1096 68.30% 22.81% 8.89%+1.55 +9.0 28
2020-02-22 @ Velez Mostar L 0-229.6 1096 1305 8.89% 22.81% 68.30%-1.55 -9.0 8
2020-02-23 Borac Banja Luka D 2-260.9 1341 1378 44.33% 27.88% 27.79%+0.29 -1.1 28
2020-02-23 @ Siroki Brijeg D 2-260.9 1378 1341 27.79% 27.88% 44.33%-0.29 +1.1 36
2020-02-23 Mladost Doboj Kakanj D 0-048.0 1144 1149 48.36% 27.56% 24.08%+0.46 -2.5 18
2020-02-23 @ Sloboda Tuzla D 0-048.0 1149 1144 24.08% 27.56% 48.36%-0.46 +2.5 18
2020-02-23 Zrinjski Mostar L 0-233.9 1142 1394 18.18% 26.64% 55.18%-0.80 -18.0 19
2020-02-23 @ Celik Zenica W 2-033.9 1394 1142 55.18% 26.64% 18.18%+0.80 +18.0 34
2020-02-28 Velez Mostar D 0-048.6 1271 1314 43.50% 27.92% 28.58%+0.26 -1.5 35
2020-02-28 @ Tuzla City D 0-048.6 1314 1271 28.58% 27.92% 43.50%-0.26 +1.5 29
2020-02-29 Sarajevo L 0-244.5 1379 1459 38.54% 28.09% 33.37%+0.07 -32.5 36
2020-02-29 @ Borac Banja Luka W 2-044.5 1459 1379 33.37% 28.09% 38.54%-0.07 +32.5 42
2020-02-29 Siroki Brijeg L 2-349.9 1151 1340 24.31% 27.59% 48.10%-0.48 -10.9 18
2020-02-29 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj W 3-249.9 1340 1151 48.10% 27.59% 24.31%+0.48 +10.9 31
2020-02-29 Sloboda Tuzla W 2-028.9 1412 1141 72.39% 20.90% 6.71%+1.86 +6.6 37
2020-02-29 @ Zrinjski Mostar L 0-228.9 1141 1412 6.71% 20.90% 72.39%-1.86 -6.6 18
2020-02-29 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo L 0-330.0 1087 1407 13.19% 25.16% 61.65%-1.15 -19.5 8
2020-02-29 @ Zvijezda 09 W 3-030.0 1407 1087 61.65% 25.16% 13.19%+1.15 +19.5 39
2020-03-01 Radnik Bijeljina D 1-153.6 1124 1377 18.06% 26.61% 55.33%-0.81 +3.6 20
2020-03-01 @ Celik Zenica D 1-153.6 1377 1124 55.33% 26.61% 18.06%+0.81 -3.5 31
2020-03-07 Celik Zenica W 2-144.1 1135 1127 49.81% 27.41% 22.78%+0.52 +10.9 21
2020-03-07 @ Sloboda Tuzla L 1-244.1 1127 1135 22.78% 27.41% 49.81%-0.52 -10.9 20
2020-03-07 Mladost Doboj Kakanj W 2-137.0 1492 1140 77.11% 18.27% 4.62%+2.27 +2.2 45
2020-03-07 @ Sarajevo L 1-237.0 1140 1492 4.62% 18.27% 77.11%-2.27 -2.2 18
2020-03-07 Zvijezda 09 W 5-129.2 1374 1067 74.56% 19.75% 5.69%+2.04 +8.7 34
2020-03-07 @ Radnik Bijeljina L 1-529.2 1067 1374 5.69% 19.75% 74.56%-2.04 -8.7 8
2020-03-08 Borac Banja Luka W 2-146.9 1316 1347 45.11% 27.83% 27.07%+0.32 +12.5 32
2020-03-08 @ Velez Mostar L 1-246.9 1347 1316 27.07% 27.83% 45.11%-0.32 -12.5 36
2020-03-08 Tuzla City W 1-035.6 1427 1269 64.39% 24.30% 11.31%+1.28 +6.1 42
2020-03-08 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo L 0-135.6 1269 1427 11.31% 24.30% 64.39%-1.28 -6.1 35
2020-03-08 Zrinjski Mostar D 1-155.8 1351 1418 40.25% 28.05% 31.70%+0.14 -0.7 32
2020-03-08 @ Siroki Brijeg D 1-155.8 1418 1351 31.70% 28.05% 40.25%-0.14 +0.7 38

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-12-07 9.06% Velez Mostar 1253 2 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1458 0
2 2019-12-01 9.54% Velez Mostar 1225 1 @ Radnik Bijeljina 1419 0
3 2019-09-29 11.40% Siroki Brijeg 1301 3 @ Zrinjski Mostar 1456 1
4 2019-11-02 12.37% @ Zvijezda 09 1067 2 Zrinjski Mostar 1401 0
5 2019-11-24 13.12% Siroki Brijeg 1318 2 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1443 1
6 2019-07-22 13.42% Celik Zenica 1219 1 @ Siroki Brijeg 1340 0
7 2019-11-30 17.16% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1419 3 @ Sarajevo 1488 1
8 2019-08-10 18.19% Borac Banja Luka 1228 2 @ Radnik Bijeljina 1284 1
9 2019-10-19 20.30% @ Velez Mostar 1183 1 Zrinjski Mostar 1411 0
10 2019-10-06 20.51% @ Borac Banja Luka 1234 3 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1460 0
11 2019-10-25 21.32% Velez Mostar 1205 2 @ Celik Zenica 1227 0
12 2019-10-19 21.76% Radnik Bijeljina 1354 3 @ Tuzla City 1371 0
13 2019-09-22 22.07% Velez Mostar 1160 2 @ Zvijezda 09 1174 1
14 2019-07-20 22.97% Tuzla City 1276 5 @ Zvijezda 09 1282 1
15 2019-09-25 23.08% @ Velez Mostar 1180 2 Tuzla City 1380 1
16 2019-08-17 23.74% @ Velez Mostar 1154 1 Siroki Brijeg 1348 0
17 2019-09-15 24.23% Tuzla City 1333 3 @ Siroki Brijeg 1326 1
18 2019-07-20 28.81% Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1246 3 @ Velez Mostar 1201 1
19 2019-10-05 29.75% @ Celik Zenica 1201 2 Siroki Brijeg 1344 0
20 2019-08-10 31.12% Tuzla City 1308 1 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1245 0
21 2019-07-27 31.44% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1342 2 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1277 0
22 2019-09-14 32.18% @ Radnik Bijeljina 1302 1 Zrinjski Mostar 1427 0
23 2020-02-29 33.37% Sarajevo 1459 2 @ Borac Banja Luka 1379 0
24 2019-08-03 33.69% Celik Zenica 1247 2 @ Velez Mostar 1165 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-07-20 62.96 Tuzla City 5 1276 22.97% @ Zvijezda 09 1 1282 49.59% 27.44%
2 2019-10-06 60.68 @ Borac Banja Luka 3 1234 20.51% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0 1460 52.40% 27.08%
3 2019-10-19 59.22 Radnik Bijeljina 3 1354 21.76% @ Tuzla City 0 1371 50.96% 27.28%
4 2019-12-07 52.60 Velez Mostar 2 1253 9.06% @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0 1458 68.01% 22.93%
5 2019-11-02 49.15 @ Zvijezda 09 2 1067 12.37% Zrinjski Mostar 0 1401 62.82% 24.81%
6 2019-09-29 43.42 Siroki Brijeg 3 1301 11.40% @ Zrinjski Mostar 1 1456 64.26% 24.34%
7 2019-10-25 41.13 Velez Mostar 2 1205 21.32% @ Celik Zenica 0 1227 51.47% 27.21%
8 2019-07-27 40.42 @ Radnik Bijeljina 3 1276 40.79% Tuzla City 0 1339 31.17% 28.04%
9 2019-11-23 39.08 Radnik Bijeljina 4 1380 51.55% @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj 0 1162 21.25% 27.20%
10 2019-11-09 38.84 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 4 1405 51.73% @ Sloboda Tuzla 0 1185 21.10% 27.18%
11 2019-11-30 38.66 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3 1419 17.16% @ Sarajevo 1 1488 56.44% 26.40%
12 2019-10-05 34.90 @ Celik Zenica 2 1201 29.75% Siroki Brijeg 0 1344 42.27% 27.98%
13 2019-11-09 34.40 @ Zrinjski Mostar 4 1352 55.04% Tuzla City 0 1297 18.29% 26.67%
14 2019-07-27 33.77 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2 1342 31.44% @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj 0 1277 40.51% 28.05%
15 2019-09-15 33.65 Tuzla City 3 1333 24.23% @ Siroki Brijeg 1 1326 48.19% 27.58%
16 2019-08-04 32.68 @ Siroki Brijeg 3 1315 48.81% Radnik Bijeljina 0 1316 23.68% 27.52%
17 2020-02-29 32.51 Sarajevo 2 1459 33.37% @ Borac Banja Luka 0 1379 38.54% 28.09%
18 2019-09-25 32.43 Zrinjski Mostar 3 1424 49.06% @ Sloboda Tuzla 0 1227 23.45% 27.49%
19 2019-07-20 30.79 Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3 1246 28.81% @ Velez Mostar 1 1201 43.26% 27.94%
20 2019-09-21 30.05 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2 1168 37.29% Sloboda Tuzla 0 1257 34.60% 28.11%
21 2019-08-24 29.39 @ Radnik Bijeljina 3 1257 52.07% Mladost Doboj Kakanj 0 1230 20.80% 27.13%
22 2019-09-28 28.82 Radnik Bijeljina 4 1319 47.30% @ Zvijezda 09 1 1137 25.04% 27.66%
23 2019-08-10 28.53 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2 1388 39.71% @ Celik Zenica 0 1263 32.22% 28.07%
24 2019-11-03 28.36 @ Borac Banja Luka 2 1339 39.96% Radnik Bijeljina 0 1408 31.98% 28.06%
25 2019-09-29 28.12 Sarajevo 3 1425 53.30% @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj 0 1191 19.75% 26.95%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-08-24 64.7 @ Siroki Brijeg 3 1327 37.75% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3 1412 34.14% 28.10%
2 2019-09-28 62.8 @ Tuzla City 2 1360 35.74% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2 1460 36.14% 28.11%
3 2019-08-17 61.3 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2 1417 66.60% Sloboda Tuzla 2 1231 9.90% 23.50%
4 2020-02-23 60.9 @ Siroki Brijeg 2 1341 44.33% Borac Banja Luka 2 1378 27.79% 27.88%
5 2019-07-27 59.4 @ Sloboda Tuzla 2 1251 40.76% Siroki Brijeg 2 1314 31.20% 28.04%
6 2019-11-02 59.4 @ Velez Mostar 2 1246 56.05% Sloboda Tuzla 2 1182 17.47% 26.48%
7 2019-08-17 59.0 @ Zvijezda 09 2 1206 45.35% Celik Zenica 2 1235 26.84% 27.81%
8 2019-10-06 58.9 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2 1163 46.68% Velez Mostar 2 1182 25.61% 27.71%
9 2019-11-09 57.9 @ Radnik Bijeljina 1 1380 35.91% Sarajevo 1 1478 35.97% 28.11%
10 2019-11-24 57.9 Siroki Brijeg 2 1318 13.12% @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1 1443 61.76% 25.13%
11 2019-11-30 57.3 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3 1419 17.16% @ Sarajevo 1 1488 56.44% 26.40%
12 2020-03-08 55.8 @ Siroki Brijeg 1 1351 40.25% Zrinjski Mostar 1 1418 31.70% 28.05%
13 2019-11-30 55.3 @ Zrinjski Mostar 1 1388 72.07% Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1 1123 6.86% 21.06%
14 2019-09-29 55.2 Siroki Brijeg 3 1301 11.40% @ Zrinjski Mostar 1 1456 64.26% 24.34%
15 2019-10-27 54.6 @ Sloboda Tuzla 1 1178 15.51% Sarajevo 1 1464 58.53% 25.96%
16 2019-12-07 54.5 @ Zvijezda 09 1 1091 11.05% Sarajevo 1 1449 64.79% 24.16%
17 2019-09-14 54.3 @ Velez Mostar 1 1156 15.61% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1 1440 58.40% 25.99%
18 2019-08-10 54.0 Borac Banja Luka 2 1228 18.19% @ Radnik Bijeljina 1 1284 55.16% 26.64%
19 2020-03-01 53.6 @ Celik Zenica 1 1124 18.06% Radnik Bijeljina 1 1377 55.33% 26.61%
20 2019-11-10 53.5 @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1 1159 22.27% Borac Banja Luka 1 1367 50.38% 27.35%
21 2019-09-21 53.3 @ Borac Banja Luka 1 1221 39.71% Siroki Brijeg 1 1293 32.23% 28.07%
22 2019-10-05 53.2 @ Zrinjski Mostar 0 1413 43.85% Sarajevo 0 1453 28.24% 27.90%
23 2019-08-03 53.1 @ Zvijezda 09 1 1207 44.48% Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1 1243 27.65% 27.87%
24 2019-11-30 53.0 @ Sloboda Tuzla 1 1147 32.31% Tuzla City 1 1271 39.62% 28.07%
25 2019-11-23 52.9 @ Zvijezda 09 1 1107 44.08% Sloboda Tuzla 1 1146 28.03% 27.89%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-12-01 26.9 @ Siroki Brijeg 4 1342 70.19% Zvijezda 09 0 1105 7.84% 21.97%
2 2019-10-05 27.0 @ Tuzla City 3 1361 71.23% Zvijezda 09 0 1108 7.29% 21.48%
3 2019-09-25 27.6 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 6 1443 73.57% Zvijezda 09 0 1154 6.14% 20.29%
4 2019-11-03 28.4 @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3 1391 68.03% Celik Zenica 0 1186 9.04% 22.92%
5 2019-08-28 28.6 @ Zrinjski Mostar 3 1391 67.42% Zvijezda 09 0 1194 9.40% 23.17%
6 2020-02-29 28.9 @ Zrinjski Mostar 2 1412 72.39% Sloboda Tuzla 0 1141 6.71% 20.90%
7 2020-03-07 29.2 @ Radnik Bijeljina 5 1374 74.56% Zvijezda 09 1 1067 5.69% 19.75%
8 2019-09-22 29.3 @ Zrinjski Mostar 3 1409 66.40% Celik Zenica 0 1226 10.02% 23.57%
9 2020-02-22 29.6 @ Velez Mostar 2 1305 68.30% Zvijezda 09 0 1096 8.89% 22.81%
10 2019-09-15 29.7 @ Sarajevo 2 1427 70.78% Zvijezda 09 0 1181 7.52% 21.70%
11 2019-08-03 29.8 @ Sarajevo 3 1432 66.30% Sloboda Tuzla 0 1250 10.09% 23.61%
12 2020-02-29 30.0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3 1407 61.65% @ Zvijezda 09 0 1087 13.19% 25.16%
13 2019-08-24 30.3 @ Zrinjski Mostar 4 1365 61.12% Borac Banja Luka 0 1247 13.58% 25.30%
14 2019-10-18 31.0 @ Sarajevo 2 1455 69.02% Celik Zenica 0 1235 8.48% 22.50%
15 2019-10-20 32.0 @ Siroki Brijeg 2 1309 61.05% Sloboda Tuzla 0 1192 13.63% 25.32%
16 2019-11-09 32.5 @ Zrinjski Mostar 4 1352 55.04% Tuzla City 0 1297 18.29% 26.67%
17 2019-11-02 32.7 @ Sarajevo 3 1459 62.29% Siroki Brijeg 0 1328 12.74% 24.97%
18 2019-08-24 32.8 @ Radnik Bijeljina 3 1257 52.07% Mladost Doboj Kakanj 0 1230 20.80% 27.13%
19 2019-11-23 32.8 Radnik Bijeljina 4 1380 51.55% @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj 0 1162 21.25% 27.20%
20 2019-11-09 33.0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 4 1405 51.73% @ Sloboda Tuzla 0 1185 21.10% 27.18%
21 2019-09-29 33.1 Sarajevo 3 1425 53.30% @ Mladost Doboj Kakanj 0 1191 19.75% 26.95%
22 2019-07-28 33.4 @ Zrinjski Mostar 1 1370 67.63% Velez Mostar 0 1170 9.28% 23.09%
23 2020-02-23 33.9 Zrinjski Mostar 2 1394 55.18% @ Celik Zenica 0 1142 18.18% 26.64%
24 2019-09-25 34.0 @ Sarajevo 1 1420 67.61% Borac Banja Luka 0 1221 9.29% 23.10%
25 2019-08-04 34.6 @ Siroki Brijeg 3 1315 48.81% Radnik Bijeljina 0 1316 23.68% 27.52%