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2015-16 A Group Season

144 games

Final

Champion

Ludogorets

70 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 2014-15

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

16.35 points above expected

49 points · 32.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Pirin Blagoevgrad

9.90 points below expected

26 points · 35.90 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ludogorets Champion 32 21 7 4 70 55 21 +34 68.28 +1.72
2 Levski Sofia 32 16 8 8 56 36 18 +18 56.67 -0.67
3 Beroe 32 14 11 7 53 37 27 +10 53.33 -0.33
4 Slavia Sofia 32 14 7 11 49 36 29 +7 46.20 +2.80
5 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 32 15 4 13 49 40 45 -5 32.65 +16.35
6 Cherno More 32 10 8 14 38 36 45 -9 42.53 -4.53
7 Botev Plovdiv 32 8 9 15 33 27 44 -17 38.39 -5.39
8 Pirin Blagoevgrad 32 5 11 16 26 27 45 -18 35.90 -9.90
9 Montana 32 4 9 19 21 23 43 -20 23.96 -2.96

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 49 32.65 +16.35
2 Slavia Sofia 49 46.20 +2.80
3 Ludogorets 70 68.28 +1.72
4 Beroe 53 53.33 -0.33
5 Levski Sofia 56 56.67 -0.67

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Pirin Blagoevgrad 26 35.90 -9.90
2 Botev Plovdiv 33 38.39 -5.39
3 Cherno More 38 42.53 -4.53
4 Montana 21 23.96 -2.96
5 Levski Sofia 56 56.67 -0.67

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 6 Apr 24 – May 28 1 in 2,247
2 Ludogorets 12 Nov 21 – Apr 15 1 in 283
3 Beroe 3 May 11 – May 28 1 in 35
4 Levski Sofia 3 Sep 13 – Sep 28 1 in 10
5 Slavia Sofia 3 Dec 3 – Dec 11 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Slavia Sofia 3 Apr 10 – Apr 23 1 in 51
2 Ludogorets 2 May 22 – May 27 1 in 50
3 Pirin Blagoevgrad 4 Jul 27 – Aug 21 1 in 33
4 Levski Sofia 2 May 22 – May 28 1 in 14
5 Montana 5 Oct 4 – Nov 20 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 6 Apr 24 – May 28 1 in 49
2 Montana 3 Jul 19 – Aug 7 1 in 33
3 Pirin Blagoevgrad 5 Nov 7 – Dec 6 1 in 26
4 Ludogorets 15 Nov 7 – Apr 29 1 in 14
5 Levski Sofia 10 Feb 27 – May 6 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pirin Blagoevgrad 13 Jul 19 – Nov 7 1 in 108
2 Cherno More 10 Dec 6 – Apr 15 1 in 97
3 Beroe 6 Aug 9 – Sep 27 1 in 49
4 Montana 19 Oct 4 – May 6 1 in 40
5 Botev Plovdiv 8 Apr 3 – May 14 1 in 22

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ludogorets 1700 70 -17 6 10.9 -4.9
Levski Sofia 1596 56 -17 6 9.6 -3.6
Beroe 1587 53 +19 10 7.3 +2.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1433 49 +36 15 5.8 +9.2
Slavia Sofia 1497 49 +1 10 6.6 +3.4
Cherno More 1454 38 -1 6 6.6 -0.6
Botev Plovdiv 1415 33 -12 4 5.2 -1.2
Pirin Blagoevgrad 1411 26 -8 4 5.6 -1.6
Montana 1281 21 -9 3 4.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BER BP CM LS LP LUD MON PB SS
Beroe —
2-2-0
7.50
1-2-1
6.86
2-0-2
5.19
3-1-0
8.08
1-1-2
3.77
2-1-1
8.94
3-1-0
7.56
0-3-1
6.66
Botev Plovdiv
0-2-2
3.54
 —
3-0-1
4.79
0-2-2
3.63
1-1-2
6.33
1-0-3
2.30
1-2-1
7.59
2-2-0
5.64
0-0-4
4.63
Cherno More
1-2-1
4.14
1-0-3
6.17
 —
0-0-4
4.05
2-1-1
6.65
0-1-3
2.88
2-1-1
7.81
1-2-1
6.33
3-1-0
5.19
Levski Sofia
2-0-2
5.75
2-2-0
7.42
4-0-0
6.96
 —
1-1-2
8.35
0-2-2
4.00
3-1-0
9.10
2-1-1
7.96
2-1-1
6.84
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0-1-3
3.02
2-1-1
4.63
1-1-2
4.34
2-1-1
2.80
 —
2-0-2
1.96
3-0-1
6.66
3-0-1
5.04
2-0-2
3.85
Ludogorets
2-1-1
7.25
3-0-1
8.96
3-1-0
8.27
2-2-0
6.99
2-0-2
9.39
 —
3-1-0
9.93
3-1-0
8.94
3-1-0
8.12
Montana
1-1-2
2.32
1-2-1
3.45
1-1-2
3.27
0-1-3
2.18
1-0-3
4.33
0-1-3
1.54
 —
0-3-1
3.88
0-0-4
3.02
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0-1-3
3.48
0-2-2
5.30
1-2-1
4.63
1-1-2
3.13
1-0-3
5.88
0-1-3
2.31
1-3-0
7.12
 —
1-1-2
4.70
Slavia Sofia
1-3-0
4.31
4-0-0
6.33
0-1-3
5.76
1-1-2
4.16
2-0-2
7.15
0-1-3
3.00
4-0-0
8.09
2-1-1
6.28
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +15.4
Allowed 0.65 -11.1
Differential 0.92 +8.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%12.85%5.90%3.47%0.69%1.04%35.07%
112.85%12.50%6.94%3.47%0.35%0.35%36.46%
25.90%6.94%2.08%1.39%0.35%0.35%17.01%
33.47%3.47%1.39%———8.33%
40.69%0.35%0.35%———1.39%
5+1.04%0.35%0.35%———1.74%
Total35.07%36.46%17.01%8.33%1.39%1.74%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.10 +0.00
SD 1.13 1.13 1.70
CV 1.03 1.03 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 144

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%9.38%6.25%——3.12%37.50%
112.50%15.62%3.12%———31.25%
26.25%9.38%————15.62%
33.12%9.38%————12.50%
4———————
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total40.62%43.75%12.50%——3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 0.84 +0.31
SD 1.25 1.02 1.60
CV 1.08 1.21 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%21.88%3.12%6.25%—3.12%40.62%
112.50%12.50%9.38%3.12%——37.50%
2—9.38%9.38%———18.75%
3—3.12%————3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%46.88%21.88%9.38%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.84 1.38 -0.53
SD 0.85 1.21 1.54
CV 1.00 0.88 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%3.12%—25.00%
115.62%18.75%12.50%3.12%—3.12%53.12%
2—3.12%—6.25%——9.38%
33.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total28.12%31.25%21.88%12.50%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.41 -0.28
SD 1.01 1.29 1.75
CV 0.90 0.92 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%12.50%3.12%———31.25%
125.00%9.38%6.25%———40.62%
215.62%——3.12%——18.75%
33.12%3.12%————6.25%
4———————
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total59.38%28.12%9.38%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 0.56 +0.56
SD 1.13 0.80 1.37
CV 1.00 1.42 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.38%9.38%9.38%——28.12%
19.38%12.50%6.25%3.12%——31.25%
29.38%18.75%———3.12%31.25%
3—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total18.75%43.75%21.88%12.50%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.41 -0.16
SD 1.05 1.13 1.67
CV 0.84 0.80 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%—6.25%———15.62%
115.62%12.50%6.25%———34.38%
215.62%12.50%————28.12%
33.12%6.25%3.12%———12.50%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total50.00%34.38%15.62%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.66 +1.06
SD 1.33 0.75 1.61
CV 0.77 1.14 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%25.00%12.50%3.12%3.12%—56.25%
13.12%12.50%9.38%6.25%——31.25%
23.12%—3.12%———6.25%
3——3.12%———3.12%
4———————
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total21.88%37.50%28.12%9.38%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.34 -0.62
SD 1.22 1.04 1.70
CV 1.70 0.77 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%18.75%—9.38%——43.75%
16.25%12.50%6.25%9.38%3.12%—37.50%
2—3.12%6.25%—3.12%—12.50%
33.12%—————3.12%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total28.12%34.38%12.50%18.75%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.84 1.41 -0.56
SD 0.99 1.27 1.58
CV 1.17 0.90 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%12.50%6.25%——3.12%37.50%
115.62%6.25%3.12%6.25%——31.25%
23.12%6.25%—3.12%——12.50%
315.62%3.12%————18.75%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%28.12%9.38%9.38%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 0.91 +0.22
SD 1.13 1.23 1.84
CV 1.00 1.35 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ludogorets 1700 70 68.28 +1.72 66.0% 53 57 64 69 71 78 84
Levski Sofia 1596 56 56.67 -0.67 53.0% 43 46 51 56 61 69 75
Beroe 1587 53 53.33 -0.33 50.0% 37 43 49 53 57 64 72
Slavia Sofia 1497 49 46.20 +2.80 67.0% 29 34 42 46 51 58 66
Cherno More 1454 38 42.53 -4.53 29.0% 26 33 38 43 47 53 56
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1433 49 32.65 +16.35 99.0% 18 23 28 32 36 43 50
Botev Plovdiv 1415 33 38.39 -5.39 23.0% 23 27 34 38 42 51 57
Pirin Blagoevgrad 1411 26 35.90 -9.90 5.0% 21 26 31 36 40 46 54
Montana 1281 21 23.96 -2.96 33.0% 12 15 19 23 28 34 38

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.75%
Slight Edge
46.53%25.69%27.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 65.92 Elo pts.
259 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.34 goals
Neutral
-2+0.25+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.5
One-Team Race
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
82%
Ludogorets, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.44/gm
Runaway
00.310.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.23 * Some Luck: 5.23 to 7.85 * Lucky: 7.85 to 10.47 * Wild Swing: 10.47 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.65 * Close: 0.65 to 0.98 * Off: 0.98 to 1.3 * Way Off: 1.3 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.94 points
Some Luck
06.5416
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.67
Close
00.812
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
99.00%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
5.00%
Pirin Blagoevgrad
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 125.03
2.11
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
73%
Clear Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
92%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
68%
Very Frequent
0%62%100%
Blowouts
Expected
12%
Rare
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.42
Notable Separation
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.24
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.79
Near-Lock
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.84
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.03
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.095
Well Within Noise
00.1400.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Ludogorets82.00%16.00%1.00%1.00%—————
Levski Sofia12.00%42.00%29.00%9.00%7.00%1.00%———
Beroe5.00%30.00%39.00%21.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%——
Slavia Sofia1.00%11.00%14.00%31.00%23.00%10.00%8.00%2.00%—
Lokomotiv Plovdiv——1.00%2.00%9.00%19.00%19.00%35.00%15.00%
Cherno More——12.00%18.00%27.00%27.00%7.00%9.00%—
Botev Plovdiv—1.00%3.00%11.00%16.00%22.00%30.00%12.00%5.00%
Pirin Blagoevgrad——1.00%7.00%15.00%20.00%27.00%25.00%5.00%
Montana——————8.00%17.00%75.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Beroe 100% —
Botev Plovdiv 95.00% 5.00%
Cherno More 100% —
Levski Sofia 100% —
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 85.00% 15.00%
Ludogorets 100% —
Montana 25.00% 75.00%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 95.00% 5.00%
Slavia Sofia 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2015-07-17 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 3-036.1 1466 1386 55.95% 24.09% 19.96%+0.57 +9.9 3
2015-07-17 @ Slavia Sofia L 0-336.1 1386 1466 19.96% 24.09% 55.95%-0.57 -9.9 0
2015-07-18 Levski Sofia D 1-165.7 1482 1572 33.07% 27.16% 39.77%-0.09 +0.2 1
2015-07-18 @ Botev Plovdiv D 1-165.7 1572 1482 39.77% 27.16% 33.07%+0.09 -0.2 1
2015-07-19 Cherno More D 1-162.0 1460 1495 40.84% 27.09% 32.06%+0.12 -0.3 1
2015-07-19 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad D 1-162.0 1495 1460 32.06% 27.09% 40.84%-0.12 +0.3 1
2015-07-19 Montana D 0-057.0 1572 1281 77.54% 13.93% 8.54%+1.38 -2.7 1
2015-07-19 @ Beroe D 0-057.0 1281 1572 8.54% 13.93% 77.54%-1.38 +2.7 1
2015-07-25 Botev Plovdiv W 6-045.6 1283 1482 21.08% 24.60% 54.32%-0.51 +43.0 4
2015-07-25 @ Montana L 0-645.6 1482 1283 54.32% 24.60% 21.08%+0.51 -43.0 1
2015-07-26 Beroe L 1-251.2 1376 1569 21.54% 24.80% 53.67%-0.49 -3.7 0
2015-07-26 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 2-151.2 1569 1376 53.67% 24.80% 21.54%+0.49 +3.7 4
2015-07-26 Ludogorets L 2-364.2 1495 1661 24.13% 25.71% 50.17%-0.39 -3.9 1
2015-07-26 @ Cherno More W 3-264.2 1661 1495 50.17% 25.71% 24.13%+0.39 +3.9 3
2015-07-27 Slavia Sofia L 0-346.7 1460 1476 43.43% 26.86% 29.71%+0.19 -18.8 1
2015-07-27 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad W 3-046.7 1476 1460 29.71% 26.86% 43.43%-0.19 +18.8 6
2015-08-01 Levski Sofia W 2-049.5 1665 1572 57.52% 23.55% 18.93%+0.62 +6.5 6
2015-08-01 @ Ludogorets L 0-249.5 1572 1665 18.93% 23.55% 57.52%-0.62 -6.5 1
2015-08-01 Lokomotiv Plovdiv D 1-158.4 1439 1372 54.34% 24.60% 21.06%+0.52 -1.1 2
2015-08-01 @ Botev Plovdiv D 1-158.4 1372 1439 21.06% 24.60% 54.34%-0.52 +1.1 1
2015-08-02 Cherno More L 0-154.1 1495 1491 46.10% 26.49% 27.40%+0.27 -7.2 6
2015-08-02 @ Slavia Sofia W 1-054.1 1491 1495 27.40% 26.49% 46.10%-0.27 +7.2 4
2015-08-02 Pirin Blagoevgrad W 1-044.8 1573 1441 61.93% 21.84% 16.23%+0.76 +2.9 7
2015-08-02 @ Beroe L 0-144.8 1441 1573 16.23% 21.84% 61.93%-0.76 -2.9 1
2015-08-07 Ludogorets D 1-166.4 1326 1672 11.74% 17.78% 70.48%-1.08 +2.1 5
2015-08-07 @ Montana D 1-166.4 1672 1326 70.48% 17.78% 11.74%+1.08 -2.1 7
2015-08-08 Levski Sofia L 0-154.3 1498 1565 36.28% 27.25% 36.47%+0.00 -6.0 4
2015-08-08 @ Cherno More W 1-054.3 1565 1498 36.47% 27.25% 36.28%+0.00 +6.0 4
2015-08-09 Beroe D 0-060.4 1488 1576 33.25% 27.17% 39.58%-0.09 +0.2 7
2015-08-09 @ Slavia Sofia D 0-060.4 1576 1488 39.58% 27.17% 33.25%+0.09 -0.2 8
2015-08-09 Botev Plovdiv L 0-150.2 1438 1438 45.63% 26.56% 27.80%+0.26 -7.1 1
2015-08-09 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad W 1-050.2 1438 1438 27.80% 26.56% 45.63%-0.26 +7.1 5
2015-08-15 Montana W 2-034.0 1571 1328 73.26% 16.30% 10.44%+1.19 +3.3 7
2015-08-15 @ Levski Sofia L 0-234.0 1328 1571 10.44% 16.30% 73.26%-1.19 -3.3 5
2015-08-16 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 1-041.1 1669 1373 77.95% 13.69% 8.36%+1.40 +1.3 10
2015-08-16 @ Ludogorets L 0-141.1 1373 1669 8.36% 13.69% 77.95%-1.40 -1.3 1
2015-08-16 Slavia Sofia L 0-150.5 1445 1488 39.72% 27.16% 33.12%+0.09 -6.4 5
2015-08-16 @ Botev Plovdiv W 1-050.5 1488 1445 33.12% 27.16% 39.72%-0.09 +6.4 10
2015-08-17 Cherno More D 1-167.2 1576 1492 56.29% 23.98% 19.73%+0.58 -1.3 9
2015-08-17 @ Beroe D 1-167.2 1492 1576 19.73% 23.98% 56.29%-0.58 +1.3 5
2015-08-21 Ludogorets L 0-343.9 1431 1671 17.87% 22.94% 59.19%-0.67 -8.9 1
2015-08-21 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad W 3-043.9 1671 1431 59.19% 22.94% 17.87%+0.67 +8.9 13
2015-08-22 Botev Plovdiv D 0-060.2 1574 1439 62.34% 21.66% 16.00%+0.78 -1.8 10
2015-08-22 @ Beroe D 0-060.2 1439 1574 16.00% 21.66% 62.34%-0.78 +1.8 6
2015-08-22 Montana W 1-037.2 1494 1325 65.92% 20.05% 14.03%+0.91 +2.5 8
2015-08-22 @ Cherno More L 0-137.2 1325 1494 14.03% 20.05% 65.92%-0.91 -2.5 5
2015-08-23 Levski Sofia W 1-054.6 1372 1574 20.77% 24.47% 54.75%-0.53 +8.2 4
2015-08-23 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 0-154.6 1574 1372 54.75% 24.47% 20.77%+0.53 -8.2 7
2015-08-28 Slavia Sofia D 1-171.8 1680 1494 67.67% 19.20% 13.13%+0.97 -1.9 14
2015-08-28 @ Ludogorets D 1-171.8 1494 1680 13.13% 19.20% 67.67%-0.97 +1.9 11
2015-08-29 Cherno More W 2-155.6 1441 1496 37.88% 27.23% 34.89%+0.04 +5.5 9
2015-08-29 @ Botev Plovdiv L 1-255.6 1496 1441 34.89% 27.23% 37.88%-0.04 -5.5 8
2015-08-30 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 2-040.3 1323 1380 37.59% 27.24% 35.17%+0.03 +11.1 8
2015-08-30 @ Montana L 0-240.3 1380 1323 35.17% 27.24% 37.59%-0.03 -11.0 4
2015-08-30 Pirin Blagoevgrad D 0-059.4 1566 1422 63.25% 21.27% 15.48%+0.81 -1.9 8
2015-08-30 @ Levski Sofia D 0-059.4 1422 1566 15.48% 21.27% 63.25%-0.81 +1.9 2
2015-09-11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 2-146.2 1491 1369 60.78% 22.31% 16.91%+0.73 +2.9 11
2015-09-11 @ Cherno More L 1-246.2 1369 1491 16.91% 22.31% 60.78%-0.73 -2.9 4
2015-09-12 Ludogorets D 0-065.5 1573 1678 31.05% 27.01% 41.94%-0.15 +0.4 11
2015-09-12 @ Beroe D 0-065.5 1678 1573 41.94% 27.01% 31.05%+0.15 -0.4 15
2015-09-13 Levski Sofia L 0-154.1 1496 1564 36.07% 27.25% 36.68%-0.01 -6.0 11
2015-09-13 @ Slavia Sofia W 1-054.1 1564 1496 36.68% 27.25% 36.07%+0.01 +6.0 11
2015-09-13 Montana D 0-051.9 1424 1334 57.15% 23.68% 19.16%+0.60 -1.5 3
2015-09-13 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad D 0-051.9 1334 1424 19.16% 23.68% 57.15%-0.60 +1.5 9
2015-09-19 Botev Plovdiv W 2-152.0 1677 1446 72.18% 16.88% 10.94%+1.15 +1.7 18
2015-09-19 @ Ludogorets L 1-252.0 1446 1677 10.94% 16.88% 72.18%-1.15 -1.7 9
2015-09-19 Slavia Sofia L 1-248.9 1335 1490 25.26% 26.02% 48.73%-0.34 -4.2 9
2015-09-19 @ Montana W 2-148.9 1490 1335 48.73% 26.02% 25.26%+0.34 +4.2 14
2015-09-20 Beroe W 2-050.9 1570 1573 45.23% 26.62% 28.14%+0.24 +9.3 14
2015-09-20 @ Levski Sofia L 0-250.9 1573 1570 28.14% 26.62% 45.23%-0.24 -9.3 11
2015-09-20 Pirin Blagoevgrad W 2-151.4 1366 1423 37.72% 27.24% 35.04%+0.04 +5.5 7
2015-09-20 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 1-251.4 1423 1366 35.04% 27.24% 37.72%-0.04 -5.5 3
2015-09-26 Pirin Blagoevgrad W 1-043.0 1494 1417 55.45% 24.25% 20.30%+0.55 +3.7 14
2015-09-26 @ Cherno More L 0-143.0 1417 1494 20.30% 24.25% 55.45%-0.55 -3.7 3
2015-09-27 Beroe W 1-053.6 1331 1564 18.37% 23.23% 58.40%-0.65 +8.7 12
2015-09-27 @ Montana L 0-153.6 1564 1331 58.40% 23.23% 18.37%+0.65 -8.7 11
2015-09-27 Slavia Sofia W 2-046.3 1372 1494 28.87% 26.74% 44.39%-0.22 +13.2 10
2015-09-27 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 0-246.3 1494 1372 44.39% 26.74% 28.87%+0.22 -13.2 14
2015-09-28 Botev Plovdiv W 1-045.1 1579 1444 62.27% 21.69% 16.03%+0.78 +2.9 17
2015-09-28 @ Levski Sofia L 0-145.1 1444 1579 16.03% 21.69% 62.27%-0.78 -2.9 9
2015-10-02 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 2-037.6 1555 1385 66.09% 19.97% 13.94%+0.91 +4.6 14
2015-10-02 @ Beroe L 0-237.6 1385 1555 13.94% 19.97% 66.09%-0.91 -4.6 10
2015-10-03 Cherno More D 1-171.8 1679 1497 67.30% 19.38% 13.31%+0.96 -1.9 19
2015-10-03 @ Ludogorets D 1-171.8 1497 1679 13.31% 19.38% 67.30%-0.96 +1.9 15
2015-10-03 Pirin Blagoevgrad D 0-055.1 1481 1414 54.40% 24.58% 21.02%+0.52 -1.3 15
2015-10-03 @ Slavia Sofia D 0-055.1 1414 1481 21.02% 24.58% 54.40%-0.52 +1.3 4
2015-10-04 Montana W 1-038.6 1442 1340 58.52% 23.19% 18.29%+0.65 +3.3 12
2015-10-04 @ Botev Plovdiv L 0-138.6 1340 1442 18.29% 23.19% 58.52%-0.65 -3.3 12
2015-10-17 Botev Plovdiv W 2-152.6 1380 1445 36.55% 27.25% 36.20%+0.00 +5.6 13
2015-10-17 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 1-252.6 1445 1380 36.20% 27.25% 36.55%+0.00 -5.6 12
2015-10-17 Slavia Sofia W 1-047.6 1499 1480 48.19% 26.12% 25.69%+0.33 +4.6 18
2015-10-17 @ Cherno More L 0-147.6 1480 1499 25.69% 26.12% 48.19%-0.33 -4.6 15
2015-10-18 Ludogorets D 1-171.2 1582 1677 32.38% 27.12% 40.50%-0.11 +0.3 18
2015-10-18 @ Levski Sofia D 1-171.2 1677 1582 40.50% 27.12% 32.38%+0.11 -0.3 20
2015-10-19 Beroe L 0-147.7 1415 1560 26.34% 26.28% 47.38%-0.31 -4.7 4
2015-10-19 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad W 1-047.7 1560 1415 47.38% 26.28% 26.34%+0.31 +4.7 17
2015-10-23 Cherno More W 1-049.3 1583 1504 55.76% 24.15% 20.09%+0.56 +3.6 21
2015-10-23 @ Levski Sofia L 0-149.3 1504 1583 20.09% 24.15% 55.76%-0.56 -3.6 18
2015-10-23 Pirin Blagoevgrad W 1-042.9 1439 1410 49.50% 25.85% 24.64%+0.37 +4.4 15
2015-10-23 @ Botev Plovdiv L 0-142.9 1410 1439 24.64% 25.85% 49.50%-0.37 -4.4 4
2015-10-24 Montana W 2-035.7 1677 1336 81.39% 11.70% 6.91%+1.57 +2.0 23
2015-10-24 @ Ludogorets L 0-235.7 1336 1677 6.91% 11.70% 81.39%-1.57 -2.0 12
2015-10-26 Slavia Sofia L 1-265.0 1564 1475 56.97% 23.75% 19.29%+0.60 -8.0 17
2015-10-26 @ Beroe W 2-165.0 1475 1564 19.29% 23.75% 56.97%-0.60 +8.0 18
2015-10-30 Botev Plovdiv W 2-041.7 1483 1444 50.88% 25.54% 23.58%+0.41 +8.0 21
2015-10-30 @ Slavia Sofia L 0-241.7 1444 1483 23.58% 25.54% 50.88%-0.41 -8.0 15
2015-11-02 Levski Sofia L 0-238.5 1334 1586 17.01% 22.38% 60.60%-0.72 -5.8 12
2015-11-02 @ Montana W 2-038.5 1586 1334 60.60% 22.38% 17.01%+0.72 +5.8 24
2015-11-02 Ludogorets W 2-057.7 1386 1679 14.45% 20.41% 65.14%-0.88 +17.8 16
2015-11-02 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 0-257.7 1679 1386 65.14% 20.41% 14.45%+0.88 -17.8 23
2015-11-03 Beroe L 0-349.5 1500 1556 37.76% 27.24% 35.00%+0.04 -16.9 18
2015-11-03 @ Cherno More W 3-049.5 1556 1500 35.00% 27.24% 37.76%-0.04 +16.9 20
2015-11-07 Cherno More L 0-437.2 1328 1483 25.30% 26.03% 48.67%-0.34 -16.1 12
2015-11-07 @ Montana W 4-037.2 1483 1328 48.67% 26.03% 25.30%+0.34 +16.1 21
2015-11-07 Pirin Blagoevgrad D 0-064.0 1661 1406 74.42% 15.67% 9.91%+1.24 -2.5 24
2015-11-07 @ Ludogorets D 0-064.0 1406 1661 9.91% 15.67% 74.42%-1.24 +2.5 5
2015-11-08 Beroe L 1-352.1 1436 1573 27.16% 26.45% 46.39%-0.28 -7.8 15
2015-11-08 @ Botev Plovdiv W 3-152.1 1573 1436 46.39% 26.45% 27.16%+0.28 +7.8 23
2015-11-08 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 1-042.3 1592 1404 67.97% 19.05% 12.98%+0.98 +2.2 27
2015-11-08 @ Levski Sofia L 0-142.3 1404 1592 12.98% 19.05% 67.97%-0.98 -2.3 16
2015-11-20 Montana W 1-037.9 1401 1312 56.98% 23.74% 19.28%+0.60 +3.5 19
2015-11-20 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 0-137.9 1312 1401 19.28% 23.74% 56.98%-0.60 -3.5 12
2015-11-21 Ludogorets L 0-152.9 1491 1659 24.03% 25.68% 50.30%-0.39 -4.3 21
2015-11-21 @ Slavia Sofia W 1-052.9 1659 1491 50.30% 25.68% 24.03%+0.39 +4.3 27
2015-11-22 Botev Plovdiv L 1-260.4 1499 1428 54.84% 24.44% 20.71%+0.53 -7.8 21
2015-11-22 @ Cherno More W 2-160.4 1428 1499 20.71% 24.44% 54.84%-0.53 +7.8 18
2015-11-22 Levski Sofia W 1-056.3 1408 1594 22.22% 25.07% 52.71%-0.46 +8.0 8
2015-11-22 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad L 0-156.3 1594 1408 52.71% 25.07% 22.22%+0.46 -8.0 27
2015-11-27 Beroe W 5-048.8 1663 1581 56.11% 24.04% 19.85%+0.57 +15.9 30
2015-11-27 @ Ludogorets L 0-548.8 1581 1663 19.85% 24.04% 56.11%-0.57 -15.9 23
2015-11-28 Cherno More L 1-350.2 1405 1491 33.49% 27.18% 39.33%-0.08 -9.2 19
2015-11-28 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 3-150.2 1491 1405 39.33% 27.18% 33.49%+0.08 +9.2 24
2015-11-29 Pirin Blagoevgrad D 1-156.0 1309 1416 30.76% 26.98% 42.26%-0.16 +0.4 13
2015-11-29 @ Montana D 1-156.0 1416 1309 42.26% 26.98% 30.76%+0.16 -0.4 9
2015-11-29 Slavia Sofia W 2-044.8 1586 1487 58.17% 23.32% 18.51%+0.64 +6.3 30
2015-11-29 @ Levski Sofia L 0-244.8 1487 1586 18.51% 23.32% 58.17%-0.64 -6.3 21
2015-12-02 Levski Sofia W 1-055.6 1565 1593 41.85% 27.01% 31.14%+0.15 +5.3 26
2015-12-02 @ Beroe L 0-155.6 1593 1565 31.14% 27.01% 41.85%-0.15 -5.3 30
2015-12-02 Ludogorets L 0-149.0 1436 1679 17.63% 22.79% 59.58%-0.68 -3.2 18
2015-12-02 @ Botev Plovdiv W 1-049.0 1679 1436 59.58% 22.79% 17.63%+0.68 +3.2 33
2015-12-03 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 3-037.4 1416 1396 48.33% 26.10% 25.58%+0.33 +12.5 12
2015-12-03 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad L 0-337.4 1396 1416 25.58% 26.10% 48.33%-0.33 -12.5 19
2015-12-03 Montana W 1-036.4 1481 1309 66.23% 19.90% 13.87%+0.92 +2.4 24
2015-12-03 @ Slavia Sofia L 0-136.4 1309 1481 13.87% 19.90% 66.23%-0.92 -2.4 13
2015-12-05 Levski Sofia D 0-059.2 1432 1587 25.29% 26.03% 48.68%-0.34 +0.9 19
2015-12-05 @ Botev Plovdiv D 0-059.2 1587 1432 48.68% 26.03% 25.29%+0.34 -0.9 31
2015-12-06 Cherno More W 4-044.6 1428 1501 35.45% 27.24% 37.30%-0.02 +21.9 15
2015-12-06 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad L 0-444.6 1501 1428 37.30% 27.24% 35.45%+0.02 -21.9 24
2015-12-06 Montana W 2-142.4 1571 1307 75.16% 15.26% 9.58%+1.27 +1.5 29
2015-12-06 @ Beroe L 1-242.4 1307 1571 9.58% 15.26% 75.16%-1.27 -1.5 13
2015-12-07 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 3-035.9 1483 1383 58.28% 23.28% 18.44%+0.64 +9.1 27
2015-12-07 @ Slavia Sofia L 0-335.9 1383 1483 18.44% 23.28% 58.28%-0.64 -9.1 19
2015-12-11 Slavia Sofia L 0-345.9 1450 1492 39.77% 27.16% 33.07%+0.09 -17.6 15
2015-12-11 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad W 3-045.9 1492 1450 33.07% 27.16% 39.77%-0.09 +17.6 30
2015-12-12 Ludogorets L 0-248.5 1479 1682 20.72% 24.45% 54.83%-0.53 -7.1 24
2015-12-12 @ Cherno More W 2-048.5 1682 1479 54.83% 24.45% 20.72%+0.53 +7.1 36
2015-12-13 Beroe D 1-162.5 1374 1572 21.17% 24.64% 54.19%-0.51 +1.1 20
2015-12-13 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv D 1-162.5 1572 1374 54.19% 24.64% 21.17%+0.51 -1.1 30
2015-12-13 Botev Plovdiv D 1-156.3 1305 1433 28.25% 26.64% 45.11%-0.24 +0.5 14
2015-12-13 @ Montana D 1-156.3 1433 1305 45.11% 26.64% 28.25%+0.24 -0.5 20
2016-02-20 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 1-040.8 1433 1375 53.14% 24.95% 21.92%+0.48 +4.0 23
2016-02-20 @ Botev Plovdiv L 0-140.8 1375 1433 21.92% 24.95% 53.14%-0.48 -4.0 20
2016-02-20 Pirin Blagoevgrad W 3-147.0 1571 1433 62.64% 21.54% 15.83%+0.79 +4.6 33
2016-02-20 @ Beroe L 1-347.0 1433 1571 15.83% 21.54% 62.64%-0.79 -4.6 15
2016-02-21 Cherno More D 0-057.9 1510 1472 50.68% 25.59% 23.74%+0.40 -1.0 31
2016-02-21 @ Slavia Sofia D 0-057.9 1472 1510 23.74% 25.59% 50.68%-0.40 +1.0 25
2016-02-21 Levski Sofia W 2-159.5 1689 1586 58.58% 23.17% 18.25%+0.65 +3.1 39
2016-02-21 @ Ludogorets L 1-259.5 1586 1689 18.25% 23.17% 58.58%-0.65 -3.1 31
2016-02-26 Ludogorets L 0-140.5 1306 1692 9.95% 15.72% 74.33%-1.24 -1.6 14
2016-02-26 @ Montana W 1-040.5 1692 1306 74.33% 15.72% 9.95%+1.24 +1.6 42
2016-02-27 Levski Sofia L 0-248.9 1473 1583 30.37% 26.93% 42.70%-0.17 -9.9 25
2016-02-27 @ Cherno More W 2-048.9 1583 1473 42.70% 26.93% 30.37%+0.17 +9.9 34
2016-02-28 Beroe D 0-061.1 1509 1576 36.28% 27.25% 36.47%+0.00 +0.0 32
2016-02-28 @ Slavia Sofia D 0-061.1 1576 1509 36.47% 27.25% 36.28%+0.00 -0.0 34
2016-02-28 Botev Plovdiv D 2-265.2 1428 1437 44.43% 26.73% 28.83%+0.22 -0.4 16
2016-02-28 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad D 2-265.2 1437 1428 28.83% 26.73% 44.43%-0.22 +0.4 24
2016-03-01 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 2-038.0 1694 1371 80.03% 12.50% 7.48%+1.50 +2.2 45
2016-03-01 @ Ludogorets L 0-238.0 1371 1694 7.48% 12.50% 80.03%-1.50 -2.2 20
2016-03-02 Montana D 0-058.4 1593 1304 77.33% 14.04% 8.63%+1.37 -2.7 35
2016-03-02 @ Levski Sofia D 0-058.4 1304 1593 8.63% 14.04% 77.33%-1.37 +2.7 15
2016-03-03 Cherno More D 0-060.9 1576 1463 59.75% 22.72% 17.53%+0.69 -1.6 35
2016-03-03 @ Beroe D 0-060.9 1463 1576 17.53% 22.72% 59.75%-0.69 +1.6 26
2016-03-03 Slavia Sofia L 0-149.7 1437 1509 35.53% 27.24% 37.22%-0.02 -5.9 24
2016-03-03 @ Botev Plovdiv W 1-049.7 1509 1437 37.22% 27.24% 35.53%+0.02 +5.9 35
2016-03-05 Levski Sofia D 1-163.2 1369 1590 19.24% 23.72% 57.04%-0.60 +1.3 21
2016-03-05 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv D 1-163.2 1590 1369 57.04% 23.72% 19.24%+0.60 -1.3 36
2016-03-05 Ludogorets L 1-351.3 1428 1696 15.94% 21.62% 62.44%-0.78 -4.7 16
2016-03-05 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad W 3-151.3 1696 1428 62.44% 21.62% 15.94%+0.78 +4.7 48
2016-03-06 Botev Plovdiv D 1-165.6 1574 1431 63.12% 21.32% 15.55%+0.81 -1.7 36
2016-03-06 @ Beroe D 1-165.6 1431 1574 15.55% 21.32% 63.12%-0.81 +1.7 25
2016-03-06 Montana D 1-158.7 1464 1307 64.75% 20.59% 14.66%+0.86 -1.8 27
2016-03-06 @ Cherno More D 1-158.7 1307 1464 14.66% 20.59% 64.75%-0.86 +1.8 16
2016-03-12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 0-143.8 1309 1370 36.98% 27.25% 35.77%+0.02 -6.1 16
2016-03-12 @ Montana W 1-043.8 1370 1309 35.77% 27.25% 36.98%-0.02 +6.1 24
2016-03-12 Slavia Sofia W 3-152.0 1701 1515 67.70% 19.19% 13.11%+0.97 +3.7 51
2016-03-12 @ Ludogorets L 1-352.0 1515 1701 13.11% 19.19% 67.70%-0.97 -3.7 35
2016-03-13 Cherno More W 3-149.5 1433 1463 41.51% 27.04% 31.45%+0.14 +8.8 28
2016-03-13 @ Botev Plovdiv L 1-349.5 1463 1433 31.45% 27.04% 41.51%-0.14 -8.8 27
2016-03-13 Pirin Blagoevgrad W 3-146.4 1589 1423 65.67% 20.17% 14.17%+0.90 +4.1 39
2016-03-13 @ Levski Sofia L 1-346.4 1423 1589 14.17% 20.17% 65.67%-0.90 -4.1 16
2016-03-19 Levski Sofia D 0-061.8 1511 1593 34.10% 27.21% 38.69%-0.06 +0.2 36
2016-03-19 @ Slavia Sofia D 0-061.8 1593 1511 38.69% 27.21% 34.10%+0.06 -0.2 40
2016-03-19 Ludogorets L 0-253.7 1572 1704 27.78% 26.56% 45.66%-0.26 -9.2 36
2016-03-19 @ Beroe W 2-053.7 1704 1572 45.66% 26.56% 27.78%+0.26 +9.2 54
2016-03-20 Lokomotiv Plovdiv D 1-159.0 1454 1376 55.59% 24.21% 20.20%+0.55 -1.2 28
2016-03-20 @ Cherno More D 1-159.0 1376 1454 20.20% 24.21% 55.59%-0.55 +1.2 25
2016-03-20 Montana D 0-051.7 1419 1303 60.17% 22.56% 17.27%+0.70 -1.7 17
2016-03-20 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad D 0-051.7 1303 1419 17.27% 22.56% 60.17%-0.70 +1.7 17
2016-04-01 Pirin Blagoevgrad W 4-250.3 1378 1417 40.14% 27.14% 32.72%+0.10 +8.1 28
2016-04-01 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 2-450.3 1417 1378 32.72% 27.14% 40.14%-0.10 -8.1 17
2016-04-02 Beroe W 1-053.2 1593 1563 49.62% 25.83% 24.55%+0.37 +4.4 43
2016-04-02 @ Levski Sofia L 0-153.2 1563 1593 24.55% 25.83% 49.62%-0.37 -4.4 36
2016-04-02 Slavia Sofia L 0-335.4 1304 1511 20.39% 24.30% 55.31%-0.55 -10.1 17
2016-04-02 @ Montana W 3-035.4 1511 1304 55.31% 24.30% 20.39%+0.55 +10.1 39
2016-04-03 Botev Plovdiv W 1-045.3 1714 1442 75.87% 14.86% 9.26%+1.31 +1.5 57
2016-04-03 @ Ludogorets L 0-145.3 1442 1714 9.26% 14.86% 75.87%-1.31 -1.5 28
2016-04-09 Botev Plovdiv W 3-040.0 1597 1440 64.71% 20.61% 14.68%+0.86 +7.1 46
2016-04-09 @ Levski Sofia L 0-340.0 1440 1597 14.68% 20.61% 64.71%-0.86 -7.1 28
2016-04-09 Pirin Blagoevgrad D 1-159.5 1453 1409 51.37% 25.42% 23.21%+0.42 -0.9 29
2016-04-09 @ Cherno More D 1-159.5 1409 1453 23.21% 25.42% 51.37%-0.42 +1.0 18
2016-04-10 Beroe L 1-342.0 1294 1559 16.18% 21.80% 62.01%-0.77 -4.7 17
2016-04-10 @ Montana W 3-142.0 1559 1294 62.01% 21.80% 16.18%+0.77 +4.8 39
2016-04-10 Slavia Sofia W 3-154.1 1386 1521 27.37% 26.49% 46.14%-0.27 +11.8 31
2016-04-10 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 1-354.1 1521 1386 46.14% 26.49% 27.37%+0.27 -11.8 39
2016-04-15 Cherno More W 2-152.3 1715 1452 75.12% 15.28% 9.60%+1.27 +1.5 60
2016-04-15 @ Ludogorets L 1-252.3 1452 1715 9.60% 15.28% 75.12%-1.27 -1.5 29
2016-04-16 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 5-243.4 1563 1398 65.63% 20.19% 14.19%+0.90 +5.0 42
2016-04-16 @ Beroe L 2-543.4 1398 1563 14.19% 20.19% 65.63%-0.90 -5.0 31
2016-04-16 Montana D 2-263.7 1433 1289 63.24% 21.27% 15.49%+0.81 -1.2 29
2016-04-16 @ Botev Plovdiv D 2-263.7 1289 1433 15.49% 21.27% 63.24%-0.81 +1.2 18
2016-04-17 Pirin Blagoevgrad L 1-260.8 1510 1410 58.23% 23.30% 18.47%+0.64 -8.2 39
2016-04-17 @ Slavia Sofia W 2-160.8 1410 1510 18.47% 23.30% 58.23%-0.64 +8.2 21
2016-04-23 Ludogorets D 0-066.5 1605 1716 30.20% 26.91% 42.89%-0.18 +0.5 47
2016-04-23 @ Levski Sofia D 0-066.5 1716 1605 42.89% 26.91% 30.20%+0.18 -0.5 61
2016-04-23 Slavia Sofia W 3-260.7 1450 1501 38.49% 27.22% 34.30%+0.06 +5.1 32
2016-04-23 @ Cherno More L 2-360.7 1501 1450 34.30% 27.22% 38.49%-0.06 -5.2 39
2016-04-24 Beroe D 1-163.5 1418 1568 25.78% 26.15% 48.08%-0.33 +0.7 22
2016-04-24 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad D 1-163.5 1568 1418 48.08% 26.15% 25.78%+0.33 -0.7 43
2016-04-24 Botev Plovdiv W 2-151.5 1393 1432 40.18% 27.14% 32.69%+0.10 +5.2 34
2016-04-24 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 1-251.5 1432 1393 32.69% 27.14% 40.18%-0.10 -5.2 29
2016-04-28 Cherno More W 5-144.1 1605 1455 63.88% 20.99% 15.13%+0.83 +8.0 50
2016-04-28 @ Levski Sofia L 1-544.1 1455 1605 15.13% 20.99% 63.88%-0.83 -8.0 32
2016-04-29 Montana W 2-143.5 1716 1291 86.87% 8.44% 4.69%+1.90 +0.6 64
2016-04-29 @ Ludogorets L 1-243.5 1291 1716 4.69% 8.44% 86.87%-1.90 -0.6 18
2016-04-29 Pirin Blagoevgrad D 2-264.8 1427 1419 46.65% 26.40% 26.95%+0.28 -0.5 30
2016-04-29 @ Botev Plovdiv D 2-264.8 1419 1427 26.95% 26.40% 46.65%-0.28 +0.5 23
2016-04-30 Slavia Sofia D 1-166.9 1568 1496 54.83% 24.45% 20.72%+0.53 -1.2 44
2016-04-30 @ Beroe D 1-166.9 1496 1568 20.72% 24.45% 54.83%-0.53 +1.2 40
2016-05-06 Beroe W 1-054.6 1447 1566 29.32% 26.80% 43.88%-0.21 +6.9 35
2016-05-06 @ Cherno More L 0-154.6 1566 1447 43.88% 26.80% 29.32%+0.21 -6.9 44
2016-05-06 Levski Sofia L 0-138.9 1290 1613 12.83% 18.91% 68.27%-0.99 -2.2 18
2016-05-06 @ Montana W 1-038.9 1613 1290 68.27% 18.91% 12.83%+0.99 +2.2 53
2016-05-07 Botev Plovdiv W 1-043.6 1498 1426 54.85% 24.44% 20.71%+0.53 +3.8 43
2016-05-07 @ Slavia Sofia L 0-143.6 1426 1498 20.71% 24.44% 54.85%-0.53 -3.8 30
2016-05-07 Ludogorets W 2-169.4 1398 1717 13.04% 19.12% 67.84%-0.98 +9.2 37
2016-05-07 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 1-269.4 1717 1398 67.84% 19.12% 13.04%+0.98 -9.2 64
2016-05-10 Cherno More W 3-259.3 1288 1454 24.08% 25.69% 50.23%-0.39 +6.9 21
2016-05-10 @ Montana L 2-359.3 1454 1288 50.23% 25.69% 24.08%+0.39 -6.9 35
2016-05-10 Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 2-371.3 1615 1407 69.98% 18.04% 11.98%+1.06 -8.9 53
2016-05-10 @ Levski Sofia W 3-271.3 1407 1615 11.98% 18.04% 69.98%-1.06 +8.9 40
2016-05-11 Beroe L 0-148.3 1422 1560 27.20% 26.45% 46.35%-0.28 -4.8 30
2016-05-11 @ Botev Plovdiv W 1-048.3 1560 1422 46.35% 26.45% 27.20%+0.28 +4.8 47
2016-05-11 Pirin Blagoevgrad W 4-143.9 1707 1419 77.26% 14.08% 8.66%+1.37 +3.2 67
2016-05-11 @ Ludogorets L 1-443.9 1419 1707 8.66% 14.08% 77.26%-1.37 -3.2 23
2016-05-14 Botev Plovdiv W 3-038.4 1447 1418 49.60% 25.83% 24.57%+0.37 +12.0 38
2016-05-14 @ Cherno More L 0-338.4 1418 1447 24.57% 25.83% 49.60%-0.37 -12.0 30
2016-05-14 Montana W 2-033.4 1416 1295 60.72% 22.34% 16.94%+0.72 +5.8 43
2016-05-14 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 0-233.4 1295 1416 16.94% 22.34% 60.72%-0.72 -5.8 21
2016-05-15 Levski Sofia L 0-147.7 1416 1606 21.85% 24.92% 53.23%-0.48 -4.0 23
2016-05-15 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad W 1-047.7 1606 1416 53.23% 24.92% 21.85%+0.48 +3.9 56
2016-05-16 Ludogorets L 0-548.4 1501 1711 20.20% 24.20% 55.60%-0.55 -16.1 43
2016-05-16 @ Slavia Sofia W 5-048.4 1711 1501 55.60% 24.20% 20.20%+0.55 +16.1 70
2016-05-20 Pirin Blagoevgrad L 0-141.4 1289 1412 28.80% 26.73% 44.47%-0.22 -5.0 21
2016-05-20 @ Montana W 1-041.4 1412 1289 44.47% 26.73% 28.80%+0.22 +5.0 26
2016-05-22 Beroe L 0-263.3 1727 1564 65.27% 20.35% 14.38%+0.88 -17.9 70
2016-05-22 @ Ludogorets W 2-063.3 1564 1727 14.38% 20.35% 65.27%-0.88 +17.9 50
2016-05-22 Cherno More W 2-153.0 1422 1459 40.38% 27.12% 32.50%+0.11 +5.2 46
2016-05-22 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 1-253.0 1459 1422 32.50% 27.12% 40.38%-0.11 -5.2 38
2016-05-22 Slavia Sofia L 0-161.3 1610 1485 61.18% 22.15% 16.67%+0.74 -9.0 56
2016-05-22 @ Levski Sofia W 1-061.3 1485 1610 16.67% 22.15% 61.18%-0.74 +9.0 46
2016-05-27 Ludogorets W 2-169.2 1406 1709 13.87% 19.90% 66.24%-0.92 +9.0 33
2016-05-27 @ Botev Plovdiv L 1-269.2 1709 1406 66.24% 19.90% 13.87%+0.92 -9.0 70
2016-05-28 Levski Sofia W 2-162.4 1582 1601 43.00% 26.90% 30.10%+0.18 +4.9 53
2016-05-28 @ Beroe L 1-262.4 1601 1582 30.10% 26.90% 43.00%-0.18 -4.9 56
2016-05-28 Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 1-255.4 1417 1427 44.33% 26.75% 28.92%+0.22 -6.6 26
2016-05-28 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad W 2-155.4 1427 1417 28.92% 26.75% 44.33%-0.22 +6.6 49
2016-05-28 Montana W 3-137.8 1494 1284 70.17% 17.94% 11.89%+1.07 +3.3 49
2016-05-28 @ Slavia Sofia L 1-337.8 1284 1494 11.89% 17.94% 70.17%-1.07 -3.3 21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2016-05-10 11.98% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1407 3 @ Levski Sofia 1615 2
2 2016-05-07 13.04% @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1398 2 Ludogorets 1717 1
3 2016-05-27 13.87% @ Botev Plovdiv 1406 2 Ludogorets 1709 1
4 2016-05-22 14.38% Beroe 1564 2 @ Ludogorets 1727 0
5 2015-11-02 14.45% @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1386 2 Ludogorets 1679 0
6 2016-05-22 16.67% Slavia Sofia 1485 1 @ Levski Sofia 1610 0
7 2015-09-27 18.37% @ Montana 1331 1 Beroe 1564 0
8 2016-04-17 18.47% Pirin Blagoevgrad 1410 2 @ Slavia Sofia 1510 1
9 2015-10-26 19.29% Slavia Sofia 1475 2 @ Beroe 1564 1
10 2015-11-22 20.71% Botev Plovdiv 1428 2 @ Cherno More 1499 1
11 2015-08-23 20.77% @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1372 1 Levski Sofia 1574 0
12 2015-07-25 21.08% @ Montana 1283 6 Botev Plovdiv 1482 0
13 2015-11-22 22.22% @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 1408 1 Levski Sofia 1594 0
14 2016-05-10 24.08% @ Montana 1288 3 Cherno More 1454 2
15 2016-04-10 27.37% @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1386 3 Slavia Sofia 1521 1
16 2015-08-02 27.40% Cherno More 1491 1 @ Slavia Sofia 1495 0
17 2015-08-09 27.80% Botev Plovdiv 1438 1 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 1438 0
18 2015-09-27 28.87% @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1372 2 Slavia Sofia 1494 0
19 2016-05-28 28.92% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1427 2 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 1417 1
20 2016-05-06 29.32% @ Cherno More 1447 1 Beroe 1566 0
21 2015-07-27 29.71% Slavia Sofia 1476 3 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 1460 0
22 2015-12-11 33.07% Slavia Sofia 1492 3 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 1450 0
23 2015-08-16 33.12% Slavia Sofia 1488 1 @ Botev Plovdiv 1445 0
24 2015-11-03 35.00% Beroe 1556 3 @ Cherno More 1500 0
25 2015-12-06 35.45% @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 1428 4 Cherno More 1501 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-07-25 42.95 @ Montana 6 1283 21.08% Botev Plovdiv 0 1482 54.32% 24.60%
2 2015-12-06 21.90 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 4 1428 35.45% Cherno More 0 1501 37.30% 27.24%
3 2015-07-27 18.80 Slavia Sofia 3 1476 29.71% @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 0 1460 43.43% 26.86%
4 2016-05-22 17.86 Beroe 2 1564 14.38% @ Ludogorets 0 1727 65.27% 20.35%
5 2015-11-02 17.83 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 1386 14.45% Ludogorets 0 1679 65.14% 20.41%
6 2015-12-11 17.58 Slavia Sofia 3 1492 33.07% @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 0 1450 39.77% 27.16%
7 2015-11-03 16.91 Beroe 3 1556 35.00% @ Cherno More 0 1500 37.76% 27.24%
8 2016-05-16 16.13 Ludogorets 5 1711 55.60% @ Slavia Sofia 0 1501 20.20% 24.20%
9 2015-11-07 16.12 Cherno More 4 1483 48.67% @ Montana 0 1328 25.30% 26.03%
10 2015-11-27 15.86 @ Ludogorets 5 1663 56.11% Beroe 0 1581 19.85% 24.04%
11 2015-09-27 13.17 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 1372 28.87% Slavia Sofia 0 1494 44.39% 26.74%
12 2015-12-03 12.46 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 3 1416 48.33% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1396 25.58% 26.10%
13 2016-05-14 12.03 @ Cherno More 3 1447 49.60% Botev Plovdiv 0 1418 24.57% 25.83%
14 2016-04-10 11.76 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3 1386 27.37% Slavia Sofia 1 1521 46.14% 26.49%
15 2015-08-30 11.06 @ Montana 2 1323 37.59% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1380 35.17% 27.24%
16 2016-04-02 10.12 Slavia Sofia 3 1511 55.31% @ Montana 0 1304 20.39% 24.30%
17 2015-07-17 9.90 @ Slavia Sofia 3 1466 55.95% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1386 19.96% 24.09%
18 2016-02-27 9.88 Levski Sofia 2 1583 42.70% @ Cherno More 0 1473 30.37% 26.93%
19 2015-09-20 9.30 @ Levski Sofia 2 1570 45.23% Beroe 0 1573 28.14% 26.62%
20 2015-11-28 9.23 Cherno More 3 1491 39.33% @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1 1405 33.49% 27.18%
21 2016-03-19 9.20 Ludogorets 2 1704 45.66% @ Beroe 0 1572 27.78% 26.56%
22 2016-05-07 9.19 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 1398 13.04% Ludogorets 1 1717 67.84% 19.12%
23 2015-12-07 9.14 @ Slavia Sofia 3 1483 58.28% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1383 18.44% 23.28%
24 2016-05-27 9.03 @ Botev Plovdiv 2 1406 13.87% Ludogorets 1 1709 66.24% 19.90%
25 2016-05-22 9.02 Slavia Sofia 1 1485 16.67% @ Levski Sofia 0 1610 61.18% 22.15%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-08-28 71.8 @ Ludogorets 1 1680 67.67% Slavia Sofia 1 1494 13.13% 19.20%
2 2015-10-03 71.8 @ Ludogorets 1 1679 67.30% Cherno More 1 1497 13.31% 19.38%
3 2016-05-10 71.3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3 1407 11.98% @ Levski Sofia 2 1615 69.98% 18.04%
4 2015-10-18 71.2 @ Levski Sofia 1 1582 32.38% Ludogorets 1 1677 40.50% 27.12%
5 2016-05-07 69.4 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 1398 13.04% Ludogorets 1 1717 67.84% 19.12%
6 2016-05-27 69.2 @ Botev Plovdiv 2 1406 13.87% Ludogorets 1 1709 66.24% 19.90%
7 2015-08-17 67.2 @ Beroe 1 1576 56.29% Cherno More 1 1492 19.73% 23.98%
8 2016-04-30 66.9 @ Beroe 1 1568 54.83% Slavia Sofia 1 1496 20.72% 24.45%
9 2016-04-23 66.5 @ Levski Sofia 0 1605 30.20% Ludogorets 0 1716 42.89% 26.91%
10 2015-08-07 66.4 @ Montana 1 1326 11.74% Ludogorets 1 1672 70.48% 17.78%
11 2015-07-18 65.7 @ Botev Plovdiv 1 1482 33.07% Levski Sofia 1 1572 39.77% 27.16%
12 2016-03-06 65.6 @ Beroe 1 1574 63.12% Botev Plovdiv 1 1431 15.55% 21.32%
13 2015-09-12 65.5 @ Beroe 0 1573 31.05% Ludogorets 0 1678 41.94% 27.01%
14 2016-02-28 65.2 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 2 1428 44.43% Botev Plovdiv 2 1437 28.83% 26.73%
15 2015-10-26 65.0 Slavia Sofia 2 1475 19.29% @ Beroe 1 1564 56.97% 23.75%
16 2016-04-29 64.8 @ Botev Plovdiv 2 1427 46.65% Pirin Blagoevgrad 2 1419 26.95% 26.40%
17 2015-07-26 64.2 Ludogorets 3 1661 50.17% @ Cherno More 2 1495 24.13% 25.71%
18 2015-11-07 64.0 @ Ludogorets 0 1661 74.42% Pirin Blagoevgrad 0 1406 9.91% 15.67%
19 2016-04-16 63.7 @ Botev Plovdiv 2 1433 63.24% Montana 2 1289 15.49% 21.27%
20 2016-04-24 63.5 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 1 1418 25.78% Beroe 1 1568 48.08% 26.15%
21 2016-05-22 63.3 Beroe 2 1564 14.38% @ Ludogorets 0 1727 65.27% 20.35%
22 2016-03-05 63.2 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1 1369 19.24% Levski Sofia 1 1590 57.04% 23.72%
23 2015-12-13 62.5 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1 1374 21.17% Beroe 1 1572 54.19% 24.64%
24 2016-05-28 62.4 @ Beroe 2 1582 43.00% Levski Sofia 1 1601 30.10% 26.90%
25 2015-07-19 62.0 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 1 1460 40.84% Cherno More 1 1495 32.06% 27.09%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-05-14 33.4 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 1416 60.72% Montana 0 1295 16.94% 22.34%
2 2015-08-15 34.0 @ Levski Sofia 2 1571 73.26% Montana 0 1328 10.44% 16.30%
3 2016-04-02 35.4 Slavia Sofia 3 1511 55.31% @ Montana 0 1304 20.39% 24.30%
4 2015-10-24 35.7 @ Ludogorets 2 1677 81.39% Montana 0 1336 6.91% 11.70%
5 2015-12-07 35.9 @ Slavia Sofia 3 1483 58.28% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1383 18.44% 23.28%
6 2015-07-17 36.1 @ Slavia Sofia 3 1466 55.95% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1386 19.96% 24.09%
7 2015-12-03 36.4 @ Slavia Sofia 1 1481 66.23% Montana 0 1309 13.87% 19.90%
8 2015-08-22 37.2 @ Cherno More 1 1494 65.92% Montana 0 1325 14.03% 20.05%
9 2015-11-07 37.2 Cherno More 4 1483 48.67% @ Montana 0 1328 25.30% 26.03%
10 2015-12-03 37.4 @ Pirin Blagoevgrad 3 1416 48.33% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1396 25.58% 26.10%
11 2015-10-02 37.6 @ Beroe 2 1555 66.09% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1385 13.94% 19.97%
12 2016-05-28 37.8 @ Slavia Sofia 3 1494 70.17% Montana 1 1284 11.89% 17.94%
13 2015-11-20 37.9 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1 1401 56.98% Montana 0 1312 19.28% 23.74%
14 2016-03-01 38.0 @ Ludogorets 2 1694 80.03% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1371 7.48% 12.50%
15 2016-05-14 38.4 @ Cherno More 3 1447 49.60% Botev Plovdiv 0 1418 24.57% 25.83%
16 2015-11-02 38.5 Levski Sofia 2 1586 60.60% @ Montana 0 1334 17.01% 22.38%
17 2015-10-04 38.6 @ Botev Plovdiv 1 1442 58.52% Montana 0 1340 18.29% 23.19%
18 2016-05-06 38.9 Levski Sofia 1 1613 68.27% @ Montana 0 1290 12.83% 18.91%
19 2016-04-09 40.0 @ Levski Sofia 3 1597 64.71% Botev Plovdiv 0 1440 14.68% 20.61%
20 2015-08-30 40.3 @ Montana 2 1323 37.59% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1380 35.17% 27.24%
21 2016-02-26 40.5 Ludogorets 1 1692 74.33% @ Montana 0 1306 9.95% 15.72%
22 2016-02-20 40.8 @ Botev Plovdiv 1 1433 53.14% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1375 21.92% 24.95%
23 2015-08-16 41.1 @ Ludogorets 1 1669 77.95% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1373 8.36% 13.69%
24 2016-05-20 41.4 Pirin Blagoevgrad 1 1412 44.47% @ Montana 0 1289 28.80% 26.73%
25 2015-10-30 41.7 @ Slavia Sofia 2 1483 50.88% Botev Plovdiv 0 1444 23.58% 25.54%