2015-16 Prva HNL Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Dinamo Zagreb

85 points · 18th Title

Last Title: 2014-15

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Inter Zapresic

9.77 points above expected

47 points · 37.23 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

NK Zagreb

13.61 points below expected

17 points · 30.61 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Dinamo Zagreb Champion	36	26	7	3	85	67	19	+48	77.44	+7.56
2	Rijeka	36	21	14	1	77	56	20	+36	72.06	+4.94
3	Hajduk Split	36	17	10	9	61	46	28	+18	59.10	+1.90
4	Lokomotiva Zagreb	36	16	4	16	52	56	53	+3	48.70	+3.30
5	Inter Zapresic	36	11	14	11	47	39	48	-9	37.23	+9.77
6	RNK Split	36	10	16	10	46	28	29	-1	50.91	-4.91
7	Slaven Belupo	36	10	12	14	42	41	42	-1	41.94	+0.06
8	Osijek	36	7	13	16	34	27	49	-22	36.94	-2.94
9	Istra 1961	36	4	12	20	24	23	58	-35	34.98	-10.98
10	NK Zagreb	36	3	8	25	17	27	64	-37	30.61	-13.61

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Inter Zapresic	47	37.23	+9.77
2	Dinamo Zagreb	85	77.44	+7.56
3	Rijeka	77	72.06	+4.94
4	Lokomotiva Zagreb	52	48.70	+3.30
5	Hajduk Split	61	59.10	+1.90

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	NK Zagreb	17	30.61	-13.61
2	Istra 1961	24	34.98	-10.98
3	RNK Split	46	50.91	-4.91
4	Osijek	34	36.94	-2.94
5	Slaven Belupo	42	41.94	+0.06

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dinamo Zagreb	12	Nov 8 – Mar 13	1 in 129
2	Inter Zapresic	3	Feb 20 – Mar 2	1 in 61
3	Rijeka	5	Oct 4 – Nov 8	1 in 36
4	NK Zagreb	2	Apr 19 – Apr 23	1 in 23
5	Hajduk Split	4	Sep 27 – Oct 24	1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hajduk Split	3	Apr 24 – May 8	1 in 128
2	Osijek	4	Aug 9 – Aug 30	1 in 22
3	Dinamo Zagreb	2	Oct 25 – Oct 30	1 in 21
4	Istra 1961	4	Nov 28 – Dec 19	1 in 15
5	Slaven Belupo	3	Nov 7 – Nov 27	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rijeka	22	Jul 10 – Feb 12	1 in 71
2	Hajduk Split	11	Aug 2 – Oct 24	1 in 57
3	Inter Zapresic	5	Sep 19 – Oct 24	1 in 41
4	Osijek	4	Nov 7 – Dec 6	1 in 17
5	Istra 1961	5	Jul 26 – Aug 22	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Istra 1961	23	Oct 24 – May 14	1 in 190
2	RNK Split	9	Mar 20 – May 14	1 in 92
3	NK Zagreb	15	Jul 11 – Oct 31	1 in 50
4	Inter Zapresic	8	Nov 1 – Feb 14	1 in 13
5	Rijeka	3	Jul 10 – Jul 26	1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Dinamo Zagreb	1959	85	+42	13	10.2	+2.8
Rijeka	1879	77	+2	9	10.2	-1.2
Hajduk Split	1704	61	-43	6	9.0	-3.0
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1650	52	-44	6	7.5	-1.5
Inter Zapresic	1615	47	+70	12	6.5	+5.5
RNK Split	1591	46	-67	2	6.7	-4.7
Slaven Belupo	1636	42	+68	10	6.1	+3.9
Osijek	1531	34	-2	5	4.3	+0.7
Istra 1961	1385	24	-50	1	3.4	-2.4
NK Zagreb	1433	17	+25	6	4.3	+1.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	DZ	HS	IZ	I1	LZ	NZ	OSI	RS	RIJ	SB
Dinamo Zagreb	—	1-2-1 7.84	3-1-0 9.26	3-1-0 9.60	4-0-0 8.59	4-0-0 9.64	3-1-0 9.11	3-0-1 8.50	1-2-1 6.20	4-0-0 8.92
Hajduk Split	1-2-1 3.02	—	2-1-1 7.30	3-0-1 7.83	3-0-1 6.43	4-0-0 8.40	1-1-2 7.94	1-3-0 6.22	0-1-3 3.91	2-2-0 7.33
Inter Zapresic	0-1-3 1.87	1-1-2 3.53	—	3-1-0 5.71	3-0-1 4.08	1-3-0 6.21	1-1-2 5.96	0-4-0 3.88	0-3-1 2.29	2-0-2 5.06
Istra 1961	0-1-3 1.64	1-0-3 3.08	0-1-3 5.05	—	1-0-3 4.12	0-3-1 5.73	1-3-0 4.92	0-3-1 3.46	0-0-4 1.85	1-1-2 4.79
Lokomotiva Zagreb	0-0-4 2.40	1-0-3 4.35	1-0-3 6.70	3-0-1 6.65	—	4-0-0 7.43	4-0-0 6.78	1-2-1 4.93	0-0-4 3.09	2-2-0 6.02
NK Zagreb	0-0-4 1.61	0-0-4 2.56	0-3-1 4.52	1-3-0 5.00	0-0-4 3.42	—	0-1-3 4.79	1-0-3 3.19	0-1-3 2.04	1-0-3 3.85
Osijek	0-1-3 2.01	2-1-1 2.93	2-1-1 4.77	0-3-1 5.82	0-0-4 4.00	3-1-0 5.96	—	0-2-2 4.01	0-2-2 1.93	0-2-2 4.91
RNK Split	1-0-3 2.46	0-3-1 4.52	0-4-0 6.89	1-3-0 7.36	1-2-1 5.81	3-0-1 7.66	2-2-0 6.75	—	0-1-3 3.05	2-1-1 6.16
Rijeka	1-2-1 4.54	3-1-0 6.87	1-3-0 8.75	4-0-0 9.32	4-0-0 7.76	3-1-0 9.10	2-2-0 9.18	3-1-0 7.86	—	0-4-0 8.42
Slaven Belupo	0-0-4 2.14	0-2-2 3.48	2-0-2 5.66	2-1-1 5.95	0-2-2 4.73	3-0-1 6.91	2-2-0 5.80	1-1-2 4.57	0-4-0 2.54	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.80	+12.8
Allowed	0.79	-12.0
Differential	0.98	+7.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.11%	8.06%	6.39%	5.28%	1.39%	0.28%	37.50%
1	8.06%	10.00%	7.78%	1.94%	1.67%	0.56%	30.00%
2	6.39%	7.78%	3.33%	1.11%	0.28%	—	18.89%
3	5.28%	1.94%	1.11%	1.11%	—	—	9.44%
4	1.39%	1.67%	0.28%	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	0.28%	0.56%	—	—	—	—	0.83%
Total	37.50%	30.00%	18.89%	9.44%	3.33%	0.83%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.14	+0.00
SD	1.18	1.18	1.76
CV	1.03	1.03	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	13.89%
1	25.00%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	—	36.11%
2	2.78%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	13.89%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	19.44%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	55.56%	36.11%	8.33%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.86	0.53	+1.33
SD	1.36	0.65	1.43
CV	0.73	1.24	—
Max	5	2	+4
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	19.44%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
1	11.11%	2.78%	11.11%	—	2.78%	—	27.78%
2	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	58.33%	13.89%	22.22%	2.78%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	0.78	+0.50
SD	1.11	1.07	1.63
CV	0.87	1.38	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	25.00%	8.33%	2.78%	—	8.33%	—	44.44%
1	—	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	19.44%
2	2.78%	13.89%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	2.78%	11.11%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	1.33	-0.25
SD	1.18	1.41	1.84
CV	1.09	1.06	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	61.11%
1	—	13.89%	2.78%	—	2.78%	2.78%	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
3	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	41.67%	16.67%	19.44%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.64	1.61	-0.97
SD	0.99	1.32	1.63
CV	1.55	0.82	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	2.78%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	13.89%
1	5.56%	8.33%	19.44%	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
2	11.11%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	13.89%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	22.22%	30.56%	30.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.47	+0.08
SD	1.18	1.13	1.96
CV	0.76	0.77	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	52.78%
1	—	8.33%	11.11%	2.78%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	13.89%
3	—	—	—	2.78%	—	—	2.78%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.89%	27.78%	30.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.75	1.78	-1.03
SD	1.00	1.12	1.44
CV	1.33	0.63	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	19.44%	11.11%	2.78%	8.33%	—	2.78%	44.44%
1	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	38.89%
2	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	13.89%
3	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	27.78%	19.44%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.75	1.36	-0.61
SD	0.81	1.36	1.52
CV	1.07	1.00	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	22.22%	8.33%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	44.44%
1	11.11%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	41.67%	38.89%	16.67%	2.78%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.78	0.81	-0.03
SD	0.87	0.82	1.30
CV	1.11	1.02	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	25.00%	—	—	2.78%	—	—	27.78%
1	13.89%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	2.78%	—	5.56%	—	—	13.89%
4	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	61.11%	30.56%	—	8.33%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	0.56	+1.00
SD	1.34	0.88	1.43
CV	0.86	1.58	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
1	2.78%	8.33%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
2	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	8.33%	—	—	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
4	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	19.44%	27.78%	13.89%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.17	-0.03
SD	1.25	1.11	1.84
CV	1.09	0.95	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dinamo Zagreb	1959	85	77.44	+7.56	84.0%	65	66	73	77	82	88	90
Rijeka	1879	77	72.06	+4.94	83.0%	56	60	68	73	76	81	85
Hajduk Split	1704	61	59.10	+1.90	62.0%	41	45	54	59	65	70	81
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1650	52	48.70	+3.30	75.0%	29	36	44	48	52	59	69
Slaven Belupo	1636	42	41.94	+0.06	53.0%	27	30	37	41	46	53	63
Inter Zapresic	1615	47	37.23	+9.77	98.0%	24	26	33	37	42	47	56
RNK Split	1591	46	50.91	-4.91	32.0%	33	38	45	51	56	63	70
Osijek	1531	34	36.94	-2.94	38.0%	24	28	33	36	41	47	53
NK Zagreb	1433	17	30.61	-13.61	4.0%	14	18	26	30	36	41	48
Istra 1961	1385	24	34.98	-10.98	5.0%	19	24	29	35	39	47	59

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 18.5% * Slight Edge: 18.5% to 25.5% * Clear Edge: 25.5% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+17.22%

No Edge

43.33%30.56%26.11%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 60.44 Elo pts.

211 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.43 goals

Neutral

-2+0.29+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.13 * Tight Race: 0.13 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.46 * Runaway: 0.46 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.7

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

72%

Dinamo Zagreb, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.22/gm

Tight Race

00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.56 * Some Luck: 5.56 to 8.34 * Lucky: 8.34 to 11.11 * Wild Swing: 11.11 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.77 * Close: 0.77 to 1.15 * Off: 1.15 to 1.54 * Way Off: 1.54 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

7.26 points

Some Luck

06.9517

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.60

Pinpoint

00.962

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

98.00%

Inter Zapresic

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

4.00%

NK Zagreb

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.22 * Lopsided: 0.22 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 67% * Clear Edge: 67% to 71% * Wide Edge: 71% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90% * Clear Edge: 90% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95.5% * Dominant: 95.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 58% * Some Drama: 58% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 64% * Very Frequent: 64% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 16.5% * Frequent: 16.5% to 19.5% * Very Frequent: 19.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.24

Lopsided

00.170.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 178.21

2.82

Wide Separation

11.852.353.5

Interquartile Edge

70%

Clear Edge

50%65%71%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 97%

96%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

64%

Very Frequent

0%61%100%

Blowouts

Expected

18%

Frequent

0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Lopsided: 0.46 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.79 * Near-Lock: 0.79 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 17% * Very Shaky: 17% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.54

Highly Predictable

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.46

Lopsided

00.390.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.10

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.78

Strong Carryover

00.570.791

Upset Rate

Expected

14%

Chalky

0%19%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

Solid Favorites

0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.38

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.47

Very Underconfident

0.3825421.001.61746

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.117

Well Within Noise

00.1260.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Dinamo Zagreb	72.00%	26.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Rijeka	27.00%	61.00%	11.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Hajduk Split	1.00%	7.00%	60.00%	23.00%	4.00%	4.00%	—	1.00%	—	—
Lokomotiva Zagreb	—	1.00%	8.00%	29.00%	35.00%	15.00%	5.00%	3.00%	2.00%	2.00%
Inter Zapresic	—	—	1.00%	—	9.00%	9.00%	29.00%	19.00%	21.00%	12.00%
RNK Split	—	4.00%	15.00%	35.00%	24.00%	14.00%	4.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—
Slaven Belupo	—	1.00%	2.00%	8.00%	16.00%	36.00%	13.00%	8.00%	11.00%	5.00%
Osijek	—	—	—	2.00%	5.00%	10.00%	26.00%	23.00%	26.00%	8.00%
Istra 1961	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	6.00%	8.00%	12.00%	23.00%	25.00%	24.00%
NK Zagreb	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	11.00%	20.00%	14.00%	49.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Dinamo Zagreb	100%	—	—
Hajduk Split	100%	—	—
RNK Split	99.00%	1.00%	—
Rijeka	100%	—	—
Lokomotiva Zagreb	96.00%	2.00%	2.00%
Slaven Belupo	84.00%	11.00%	5.00%
Osijek	66.00%	26.00%	8.00%
Inter Zapresic	67.00%	21.00%	12.00%
Istra 1961	51.00%	25.00%	24.00%
NK Zagreb	37.00%	14.00%	49.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2015-07-10	Rijeka	D 0-0	65.5	1564	1759	18.67%	30.24%	51.09%	-0.64	+2.6	1
2015-07-10	@ Inter Zapresic	D 0-0	65.5	1759	1564	51.09%	30.24%	18.67%	+0.64	-2.6	1
2015-07-11	Osijek	L 0-1	60.6	1582	1589	41.47%	32.02%	26.51%	+0.25	-14.5	0
2015-07-11	@ NK Zagreb	W 1-0	60.6	1589	1582	26.51%	32.02%	41.47%	-0.25	+14.5	3
2015-07-11	Slaven Belupo	W 3-1	59.0	1581	1591	41.15%	32.05%	26.80%	+0.24	+17.4	3
2015-07-11	@ Istra 1961	L 1-3	59.0	1591	1581	26.80%	32.05%	41.15%	-0.24	-17.4	0
2015-07-12	Hajduk Split	D 1-1	73.2	1831	1657	62.00%	26.13%	11.87%	+1.11	-3.8	1
2015-07-12	@ Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	73.2	1657	1831	11.87%	26.13%	62.00%	-1.11	+3.8	1
2015-07-13	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	62.6	1622	1606	44.55%	31.62%	23.83%	+0.36	+9.2	3
2015-07-13	@ RNK Split	L 1-2	62.6	1606	1622	23.83%	31.62%	44.55%	-0.36	-9.2	0
2015-07-18	NK Zagreb	D 1-1	66.6	1566	1567	42.34%	31.92%	25.74%	+0.28	-1.1	2
2015-07-18	@ Inter Zapresic	D 1-1	66.6	1567	1566	25.74%	31.92%	42.34%	-0.28	+1.1	1
2015-07-19	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	71.9	1604	1827	16.50%	29.31%	54.20%	-0.77	+2.8	4
2015-07-19	@ Osijek	D 1-1	71.9	1827	1604	54.20%	29.31%	16.50%	+0.77	-2.8	2
2015-07-19	RNK Split	D 0-0	64.7	1661	1631	46.24%	31.34%	22.42%	+0.43	-1.9	2
2015-07-19	@ Hajduk Split	D 0-0	64.7	1631	1661	22.42%	31.34%	46.24%	-0.43	+1.9	4
2015-07-19	Slaven Belupo	D 3-3	81.4	1756	1574	62.78%	25.75%	11.47%	+1.15	-2.5	2
2015-07-19	@ Rijeka	D 3-3	81.4	1574	1756	11.47%	25.75%	62.78%	-1.15	+2.4	1
2015-07-20	Istra 1961	W 6-1	53.9	1597	1599	42.22%	31.94%	25.84%	+0.28	+37.9	3
2015-07-20	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-6	53.9	1599	1597	25.84%	31.94%	42.22%	-0.28	-37.9	3
2015-07-25	Inter Zapresic	W 5-1	49.2	1824	1565	69.60%	22.02%	8.38%	+1.51	+10.1	5
2015-07-25	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-5	49.2	1565	1824	8.38%	22.02%	69.60%	-1.51	-10.1	2
2015-07-25	Osijek	W 2-1	62.5	1633	1607	45.85%	31.41%	22.74%	+0.41	+8.9	7
2015-07-25	@ RNK Split	L 1-2	62.5	1607	1633	22.74%	31.41%	45.85%	-0.41	-8.9	4
2015-07-26	Hajduk Split	W 4-1	60.9	1561	1659	29.00%	32.25%	38.75%	-0.18	+31.9	6
2015-07-26	@ Istra 1961	L 1-4	60.9	1659	1561	38.75%	32.25%	29.00%	+0.18	-31.9	2
2015-07-26	Rijeka	D 3-3	79.9	1568	1754	19.52%	30.54%	49.93%	-0.59	+1.4	2
2015-07-26	@ NK Zagreb	D 3-3	79.9	1754	1568	49.93%	30.54%	19.52%	+0.59	-1.4	3
2015-07-27	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	74.3	1576	1635	34.42%	32.41%	33.17%	+0.01	-0.1	2
2015-07-27	@ Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	74.3	1635	1576	33.17%	32.41%	34.42%	-0.01	+0.1	4
2015-07-31	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	51.3	1570	1835	13.77%	27.68%	58.55%	-0.97	-11.3	2
2015-07-31	@ NK Zagreb	W 2-0	51.3	1835	1570	58.55%	27.68%	13.77%	+0.97	+11.3	8
2015-08-01	Istra 1961	D 2-2	74.0	1598	1593	43.16%	31.82%	25.02%	+0.31	-0.9	5
2015-08-01	@ Osijek	D 2-2	74.0	1593	1598	25.02%	31.82%	43.16%	-0.31	+0.9	7
2015-08-01	RNK Split	D 0-0	62.7	1555	1642	30.44%	32.33%	37.22%	-0.13	+0.5	3
2015-08-01	@ Inter Zapresic	D 0-0	62.7	1642	1555	37.22%	32.33%	30.44%	+0.13	-0.5	8
2015-08-02	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-1	57.7	1753	1635	56.35%	28.55%	15.10%	+0.84	+10.7	6
2015-08-02	@ Rijeka	L 1-3	57.7	1635	1753	15.10%	28.55%	56.35%	-0.84	-10.7	4
2015-08-02	Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	74.6	1627	1576	48.82%	30.81%	20.37%	+0.53	-1.5	3
2015-08-02	@ Hajduk Split	D 2-2	74.6	1576	1627	20.37%	30.81%	48.82%	-0.53	+1.5	3
2015-08-07	NK Zagreb	W 3-0	48.6	1641	1559	52.56%	29.82%	17.62%	+0.68	+20.8	11
2015-08-07	@ RNK Split	L 0-3	48.6	1559	1641	17.62%	29.82%	52.56%	-0.68	-20.8	2
2015-08-08	Inter Zapresic	D 0-0	61.9	1594	1555	47.32%	31.13%	21.54%	+0.47	-2.1	8
2015-08-08	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	61.9	1555	1594	21.54%	31.13%	47.32%	-0.47	+2.0	4
2015-08-08	Rijeka	D 0-0	67.0	1846	1763	52.52%	29.84%	17.64%	+0.68	-2.9	9
2015-08-08	@ Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	67.0	1763	1846	17.64%	29.84%	52.52%	-0.68	+2.9	7
2015-08-09	Osijek	W 3-0	51.8	1578	1597	39.90%	32.17%	27.93%	+0.20	+30.1	6
2015-08-09	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-3	51.8	1597	1578	27.93%	32.17%	39.90%	-0.20	-30.1	5
2015-08-10	Hajduk Split	L 1-2	68.7	1624	1625	42.32%	31.92%	25.75%	+0.28	-13.9	4
2015-08-10	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	68.7	1625	1624	25.75%	31.92%	42.32%	-0.28	+13.9	6
2015-08-14	Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	63.9	1558	1608	35.58%	32.39%	32.03%	+0.05	+11.4	7
2015-08-14	@ Inter Zapresic	L 1-2	63.9	1608	1558	32.03%	32.39%	35.58%	-0.05	-11.4	6
2015-08-15	Hajduk Split	D 0-0	66.8	1766	1639	57.31%	28.18%	14.51%	+0.89	-3.6	8
2015-08-15	@ Rijeka	D 0-0	66.8	1639	1766	14.51%	28.18%	57.31%	-0.89	+3.6	7
2015-08-15	RNK Split	W 3-0	48.8	1843	1662	62.61%	25.83%	11.56%	+1.14	+13.6	12
2015-08-15	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	48.8	1662	1843	11.56%	25.83%	62.61%	-1.14	-13.6	11
2015-08-16	Istra 1961	D 1-1	66.3	1538	1592	35.08%	32.40%	32.52%	+0.03	-0.2	3
2015-08-16	@ NK Zagreb	D 1-1	66.3	1592	1538	32.52%	32.40%	35.08%	-0.03	+0.2	9
2015-08-17	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	59.4	1567	1610	36.58%	32.36%	31.06%	+0.08	-13.3	5
2015-08-17	@ Osijek	W 1-0	59.4	1610	1567	31.06%	32.36%	36.58%	-0.08	+13.3	7
2015-08-21	Inter Zapresic	L 1-2	69.2	1623	1569	49.28%	30.70%	20.02%	+0.54	-15.7	7
2015-08-21	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	69.2	1569	1623	20.02%	30.70%	49.28%	-0.54	+15.7	10
2015-08-22	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	72.5	1592	1857	13.77%	27.68%	58.55%	-0.97	+3.4	10
2015-08-22	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	72.5	1857	1592	58.55%	27.68%	13.77%	+0.97	-3.4	13
2015-08-22	Rijeka	L 0-2	56.6	1649	1763	26.99%	32.07%	40.94%	-0.25	-20.2	11
2015-08-22	@ RNK Split	W 2-0	56.6	1763	1649	40.94%	32.07%	26.99%	+0.25	+20.2	11
2015-08-23	NK Zagreb	W 2-1	58.8	1596	1538	49.80%	30.58%	19.62%	+0.56	+7.9	9
2015-08-23	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	58.8	1538	1596	19.62%	30.58%	49.80%	-0.56	-7.9	3
2015-08-23	Osijek	W 3-0	48.3	1643	1554	53.26%	29.61%	17.13%	+0.71	+20.3	10
2015-08-23	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-3	48.3	1554	1643	17.13%	29.61%	53.26%	-0.71	-20.2	5
2015-08-28	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	63.0	1530	1608	31.66%	32.38%	35.96%	-0.08	-11.3	3
2015-08-28	@ NK Zagreb	W 2-1	63.0	1608	1530	35.96%	32.38%	31.66%	+0.08	+11.3	10
2015-08-29	Istra 1961	W 3-0	50.9	1628	1595	46.71%	31.25%	22.04%	+0.44	+25.2	14
2015-08-29	@ RNK Split	L 0-3	50.9	1595	1628	22.04%	31.25%	46.71%	-0.44	-25.1	10
2015-08-29	Slaven Belupo	W 3-0	46.8	1853	1604	68.72%	22.54%	8.75%	+1.46	+9.8	16
2015-08-29	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	46.8	1604	1853	8.75%	22.54%	68.72%	-1.46	-9.8	9
2015-08-30	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	56.3	1585	1663	31.61%	32.38%	36.02%	-0.08	-22.6	10
2015-08-30	@ Inter Zapresic	W 2-0	56.3	1663	1585	36.02%	32.38%	31.61%	+0.08	+22.6	13
2015-08-30	Osijek	W 5-0	46.0	1783	1533	68.77%	22.51%	8.72%	+1.47	+15.8	14
2015-08-30	@ Rijeka	L 0-5	46.0	1533	1783	8.72%	22.51%	68.77%	-1.47	-15.8	5
2015-09-11	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	50.4	1619	1863	15.06%	28.53%	56.41%	-0.87	-23.4	10
2015-09-11	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 4-0	50.4	1863	1619	56.41%	28.53%	15.06%	+0.87	+23.4	19
2015-09-12	NK Zagreb	W 1-0	51.0	1686	1518	61.32%	26.45%	12.23%	+1.08	+5.3	16
2015-09-12	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	51.0	1518	1686	12.23%	26.45%	61.32%	-1.08	-5.3	3
2015-09-12	RNK Split	D 1-1	69.1	1594	1653	34.34%	32.41%	33.25%	+0.01	-0.1	10
2015-09-12	@ Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	69.1	1653	1594	33.25%	32.41%	34.34%	-0.01	+0.1	15
2015-09-13	Inter Zapresic	W 3-1	57.7	1518	1562	36.41%	32.36%	31.22%	+0.08	+19.4	8
2015-09-13	@ Osijek	L 1-3	57.7	1562	1518	31.22%	32.36%	36.41%	-0.08	-19.4	10
2015-09-13	Rijeka	L 0-1	55.3	1570	1799	16.12%	29.11%	54.77%	-0.80	-7.0	10
2015-09-13	@ Istra 1961	W 1-0	55.3	1799	1570	54.77%	29.11%	16.12%	+0.80	+7.0	17
2015-09-18	NK Zagreb	D 0-0	58.6	1537	1513	45.55%	31.46%	22.99%	+0.40	-1.8	9
2015-09-18	@ Osijek	D 0-0	58.6	1513	1537	22.99%	31.46%	45.55%	-0.40	+1.8	4
2015-09-19	Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	66.8	1691	1886	18.66%	30.24%	51.09%	-0.64	+2.6	17
2015-09-19	@ Hajduk Split	D 0-0	66.8	1886	1691	51.09%	30.24%	18.66%	+0.64	-2.6	20
2015-09-19	Inter Zapresic	D 0-0	68.2	1806	1543	69.90%	21.84%	8.26%	+1.53	-5.3	18
2015-09-19	@ Rijeka	D 0-0	68.2	1543	1806	8.26%	21.84%	69.90%	-1.53	+5.3	11
2015-09-20	Istra 1961	D 0-0	62.1	1594	1563	46.49%	31.29%	22.22%	+0.43	-1.9	11
2015-09-20	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	62.1	1563	1594	22.22%	31.29%	46.49%	-0.43	+1.9	11
2015-09-20	RNK Split	W 1-0	59.9	1596	1654	34.49%	32.41%	33.11%	+0.01	+12.4	13
2015-09-20	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	59.9	1654	1596	33.11%	32.41%	34.49%	-0.01	-12.4	15
2015-09-25	Osijek	W 4-1	49.0	1884	1535	76.55%	17.65%	5.80%	+1.94	+5.0	23
2015-09-25	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-4	49.0	1535	1884	5.80%	17.65%	76.55%	-1.94	-5.0	9
2015-09-26	Inter Zapresic	L 2-3	67.2	1515	1548	38.01%	32.29%	29.70%	+0.13	-12.2	4
2015-09-26	@ NK Zagreb	W 3-2	67.2	1548	1515	29.70%	32.29%	38.01%	-0.13	+12.2	14
2015-09-26	Rijeka	D 0-0	66.2	1592	1800	17.67%	29.85%	52.48%	-0.70	+2.9	12
2015-09-26	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	66.2	1800	1592	52.48%	29.85%	17.67%	+0.70	-2.9	19
2015-09-27	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	58.6	1641	1694	35.29%	32.39%	32.32%	+0.04	-24.4	15
2015-09-27	@ RNK Split	W 2-0	58.6	1694	1641	32.32%	32.39%	35.29%	-0.04	+24.4	20
2015-09-27	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	63.8	1565	1608	36.61%	32.36%	31.03%	+0.08	+11.2	14
2015-09-27	@ Istra 1961	L 1-2	63.8	1608	1565	31.03%	32.36%	36.61%	-0.08	-11.2	13
2015-10-02	Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	68.1	1597	1595	42.67%	31.88%	25.45%	+0.29	-1.2	14
2015-10-02	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	68.1	1595	1597	25.45%	31.88%	42.67%	-0.29	+1.2	13
2015-10-03	Dinamo Zagreb	D 2-2	79.3	1560	1889	10.54%	24.78%	64.68%	-1.27	+3.1	15
2015-10-03	@ Inter Zapresic	D 2-2	79.3	1889	1560	64.68%	24.78%	10.54%	+1.27	-3.1	24
2015-10-03	RNK Split	L 0-1	56.8	1530	1617	30.50%	32.34%	37.16%	-0.12	-11.7	9
2015-10-03	@ Osijek	W 1-0	56.8	1617	1530	37.16%	32.34%	30.50%	+0.12	+11.7	18
2015-10-04	Istra 1961	W 3-0	48.4	1718	1576	58.81%	27.57%	13.62%	+0.96	+16.2	23
2015-10-04	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-3	48.4	1576	1718	13.62%	27.57%	58.81%	-0.96	-16.2	14
2015-10-04	NK Zagreb	W 4-1	49.2	1797	1503	72.48%	20.27%	7.26%	+1.68	+6.6	22
2015-10-04	@ Rijeka	L 1-4	49.2	1503	1797	7.26%	20.27%	72.48%	-1.68	-6.6	4
2015-10-16	NK Zagreb	W 4-1	47.9	1886	1496	79.38%	15.75%	4.87%	+2.13	+4.0	27
2015-10-16	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-4	47.9	1496	1886	4.87%	15.75%	79.38%	-2.13	-4.0	4
2015-10-17	Osijek	W 2-1	57.6	1560	1519	47.71%	31.05%	21.23%	+0.48	+8.4	17
2015-10-17	@ Istra 1961	L 1-2	57.6	1519	1560	21.23%	31.05%	47.71%	-0.48	-8.4	9
2015-10-17	Rijeka	L 1-2	62.4	1596	1804	17.62%	29.83%	52.55%	-0.70	-7.1	14
2015-10-17	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	62.4	1804	1596	52.55%	29.83%	17.62%	+0.70	+7.2	25
2015-10-18	Hajduk Split	L 0-1	58.2	1597	1734	24.26%	31.70%	44.04%	-0.37	-9.9	13
2015-10-18	@ Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	58.2	1734	1597	44.04%	31.70%	24.26%	+0.37	+9.9	26
2015-10-18	Inter Zapresic	D 1-1	68.5	1628	1563	50.55%	30.39%	19.06%	+0.60	-2.3	19
2015-10-18	@ RNK Split	D 1-1	68.5	1563	1628	19.06%	30.39%	50.55%	-0.60	+2.3	16
2015-10-23	Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	59.9	1510	1587	31.86%	32.38%	35.75%	-0.08	+0.3	10
2015-10-23	@ Osijek	D 0-0	59.9	1587	1510	35.75%	32.38%	31.86%	+0.08	-0.3	14
2015-10-24	Istra 1961	W 3-0	50.1	1566	1568	42.11%	31.95%	25.95%	+0.27	+28.5	19
2015-10-24	@ Inter Zapresic	L 0-3	50.1	1568	1566	25.95%	31.95%	42.11%	-0.27	-28.5	17
2015-10-24	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	59.5	1744	1588	60.18%	26.97%	12.85%	+1.02	+5.2	29
2015-10-24	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	59.5	1588	1744	12.85%	26.97%	60.18%	-1.02	-5.2	14
2015-10-25	Dinamo Zagreb	W 2-1	69.5	1811	1890	31.58%	32.38%	36.04%	-0.09	+12.4	28
2015-10-25	@ Rijeka	L 1-2	69.5	1890	1811	36.04%	32.38%	31.58%	+0.09	-12.4	27
2015-10-25	RNK Split	L 1-2	60.2	1492	1626	24.65%	31.76%	43.59%	-0.35	-9.4	4
2015-10-25	@ NK Zagreb	W 2-1	60.2	1626	1492	43.59%	31.76%	24.65%	+0.35	+9.5	22
2015-10-30	Dinamo Zagreb	W 1-0	67.9	1636	1877	15.22%	28.62%	56.16%	-0.86	+18.5	25
2015-10-30	@ RNK Split	L 0-1	67.9	1877	1636	56.16%	28.62%	15.22%	+0.86	-18.5	27
2015-10-31	NK Zagreb	D 0-0	57.8	1540	1483	49.60%	30.63%	19.77%	+0.56	-2.4	18
2015-10-31	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	57.8	1483	1540	19.77%	30.63%	49.60%	-0.56	+2.4	5
2015-10-31	Osijek	W 2-1	57.0	1583	1510	51.42%	30.15%	18.43%	+0.63	+7.5	17
2015-10-31	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	57.0	1510	1583	18.43%	30.15%	51.42%	-0.63	-7.5	10
2015-11-01	Inter Zapresic	W 4-0	51.3	1586	1594	41.46%	32.02%	26.52%	+0.25	+37.9	17
2015-11-01	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-4	51.3	1594	1586	26.52%	32.02%	41.46%	-0.25	-37.9	19
2015-11-01	Rijeka	L 0-3	57.2	1749	1823	32.18%	32.39%	35.42%	-0.07	-33.3	29
2015-11-01	@ Hajduk Split	W 3-0	57.2	1823	1749	35.42%	32.39%	32.18%	+0.07	+33.3	31
2015-11-06	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	65.1	1556	1591	37.80%	32.31%	29.89%	+0.12	-12.8	19
2015-11-06	@ Inter Zapresic	W 2-1	65.1	1591	1556	29.89%	32.31%	37.80%	-0.12	+12.8	20
2015-11-07	Hajduk Split	W 1-0	64.5	1503	1716	17.26%	29.67%	53.07%	-0.72	+17.7	13
2015-11-07	@ Osijek	L 0-1	64.5	1716	1503	53.07%	29.67%	17.26%	+0.72	-17.7	29
2015-11-07	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	56.4	1485	1624	24.09%	31.67%	44.24%	-0.37	+28.8	8
2015-11-07	@ NK Zagreb	L 0-2	56.4	1624	1485	44.24%	31.67%	24.09%	+0.37	-28.8	17
2015-11-08	Istra 1961	W 1-0	49.6	1859	1537	74.54%	18.96%	6.50%	+1.81	+2.5	30
2015-11-08	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	49.6	1537	1859	6.50%	18.96%	74.54%	-1.81	-2.5	18
2015-11-08	RNK Split	W 2-1	59.3	1857	1654	64.63%	24.80%	10.56%	+1.25	+4.2	34
2015-11-08	@ Rijeka	L 1-2	59.3	1654	1857	10.56%	24.80%	64.63%	-1.25	-4.2	25
2015-11-20	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	60.9	1595	1861	13.71%	27.63%	58.65%	-0.97	-5.6	17
2015-11-20	@ Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	60.9	1861	1595	58.65%	27.63%	13.71%	+0.97	+5.6	33
2015-11-21	Inter Zapresic	W 4-0	47.0	1698	1543	60.12%	27.00%	12.88%	+1.02	+20.0	32
2015-11-21	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-4	47.0	1543	1698	12.88%	27.00%	60.12%	-1.02	-20.0	19
2015-11-21	Rijeka	D 1-1	73.2	1521	1861	10.05%	24.22%	65.73%	-1.33	+4.3	14
2015-11-21	@ Osijek	D 1-1	73.2	1861	1521	65.73%	24.22%	10.05%	+1.33	-4.3	35
2015-11-22	NK Zagreb	W 2-0	47.9	1603	1514	53.31%	29.60%	17.10%	+0.71	+13.9	23
2015-11-22	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	47.9	1514	1603	17.10%	29.60%	53.31%	-0.71	-13.9	8
2015-11-22	RNK Split	D 1-1	67.9	1535	1650	26.87%	32.06%	41.08%	-0.26	+1.0	19
2015-11-22	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	67.9	1650	1535	41.08%	32.06%	26.87%	+0.26	-1.0	26
2015-11-27	Osijek	D 0-0	58.4	1523	1525	42.26%	31.93%	25.80%	+0.28	-1.3	20
2015-11-27	@ Inter Zapresic	D 0-0	58.4	1525	1523	25.80%	31.93%	42.26%	-0.28	+1.3	15
2015-11-27	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	52.0	1649	1590	49.84%	30.57%	19.59%	+0.57	+15.7	29
2015-11-27	@ RNK Split	L 0-2	52.0	1590	1649	19.59%	30.57%	49.84%	-0.57	-15.7	17
2015-11-28	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	50.4	1500	1718	16.86%	29.48%	53.66%	-0.75	-13.7	8
2015-11-28	@ NK Zagreb	W 2-0	50.4	1718	1500	53.66%	29.48%	16.86%	+0.75	+13.7	35
2015-11-28	Istra 1961	W 1-0	49.6	1857	1536	74.50%	18.98%	6.51%	+1.81	+2.5	38
2015-11-28	@ Rijeka	L 0-1	49.6	1536	1857	6.51%	18.98%	74.50%	-1.81	-2.5	19
2015-11-29	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-1	54.5	1867	1617	68.76%	22.51%	8.73%	+1.47	+5.8	36
2015-11-29	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	54.5	1617	1867	8.73%	22.51%	68.76%	-1.47	-5.8	23
2015-12-04	Rijeka	D 0-0	67.8	1522	1859	10.19%	24.37%	65.44%	-1.31	+4.8	21
2015-12-04	@ Inter Zapresic	D 0-0	67.8	1859	1522	65.44%	24.37%	10.19%	+1.31	-4.8	39
2015-12-05	Hajduk Split	W 2-1	61.3	1873	1732	58.69%	27.62%	13.69%	+0.95	+5.6	39
2015-12-05	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	61.3	1732	1873	13.69%	27.62%	58.69%	-0.95	-5.6	35
2015-12-05	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	70.0	1665	1612	49.13%	30.74%	20.13%	+0.54	-2.1	30
2015-12-05	@ RNK Split	D 1-1	70.0	1612	1665	20.13%	30.74%	49.13%	-0.54	+2.1	24
2015-12-06	Osijek	L 0-1	54.2	1486	1526	37.03%	32.34%	30.63%	+0.10	-13.4	8
2015-12-06	@ NK Zagreb	W 1-0	54.2	1526	1486	30.63%	32.34%	37.03%	-0.10	+13.4	18
2015-12-06	Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	54.4	1533	1574	36.93%	32.35%	30.72%	+0.09	-25.2	19
2015-12-06	@ Istra 1961	W 2-0	54.4	1574	1533	30.72%	32.35%	36.93%	-0.09	+25.2	20
2015-12-11	NK Zagreb	D 2-2	68.2	1527	1473	49.24%	30.71%	20.05%	+0.54	-1.6	22
2015-12-11	@ Inter Zapresic	D 2-2	68.2	1473	1527	20.05%	30.71%	49.24%	-0.54	+1.6	9
2015-12-12	Istra 1961	W 3-2	61.6	1614	1508	55.04%	29.02%	15.94%	+0.79	+6.2	27
2015-12-12	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 2-3	61.6	1508	1614	15.94%	29.02%	55.04%	-0.79	-6.2	19
2015-12-12	RNK Split	D 0-0	66.0	1726	1663	50.39%	30.43%	19.18%	+0.59	-2.5	36
2015-12-12	@ Hajduk Split	D 0-0	66.0	1663	1726	19.18%	30.43%	50.39%	-0.59	+2.5	31
2015-12-13	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	52.4	1540	1878	10.12%	24.30%	65.58%	-1.32	-4.3	18
2015-12-13	@ Osijek	W 1-0	52.4	1878	1540	65.58%	24.30%	10.12%	+1.32	+4.3	42
2015-12-13	Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	74.2	1854	1599	69.24%	22.23%	8.53%	+1.49	-4.7	40
2015-12-13	@ Rijeka	D 1-1	74.2	1599	1854	8.53%	22.23%	69.24%	-1.49	+4.7	21
2015-12-18	Rijeka	L 0-2	47.5	1474	1850	8.72%	22.50%	68.79%	-1.49	-6.7	9
2015-12-18	@ NK Zagreb	W 2-0	47.5	1850	1474	68.79%	22.50%	8.72%	+1.49	+6.7	43
2015-12-19	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	50.5	1502	1724	16.59%	29.36%	54.05%	-0.76	-13.5	19
2015-12-19	@ Istra 1961	W 2-0	50.5	1724	1502	54.05%	29.36%	16.59%	+0.76	+13.5	39
2015-12-19	Inter Zapresic	W 1-0	48.9	1883	1525	77.17%	17.24%	5.59%	+1.98	+2.0	45
2015-12-19	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	48.9	1525	1883	5.59%	17.24%	77.17%	-1.98	-2.1	22
2015-12-20	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-3	56.7	1604	1620	40.36%	32.13%	27.51%	+0.21	-39.0	21
2015-12-20	@ Slaven Belupo	W 3-0	56.7	1620	1604	27.51%	32.13%	40.36%	-0.21	+39.0	30
2015-12-20	Osijek	D 1-1	69.4	1665	1535	57.59%	28.07%	14.34%	+0.90	-3.3	32
2015-12-20	@ RNK Split	D 1-1	69.4	1535	1665	14.34%	28.07%	57.59%	-0.90	+3.3	19
2016-02-12	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-0	50.1	1856	1659	64.17%	25.04%	10.79%	+1.22	+8.6	46
2016-02-12	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	50.1	1659	1856	10.79%	25.04%	64.17%	-1.22	-8.6	30
2016-02-13	Istra 1961	D 0-0	57.9	1539	1488	48.78%	30.82%	20.40%	+0.52	-2.3	20
2016-02-13	@ Osijek	D 0-0	57.9	1488	1539	20.40%	30.82%	48.78%	-0.52	+2.3	20
2016-02-13	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	49.4	1737	1565	61.82%	26.21%	11.97%	+1.10	+9.7	42
2016-02-13	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-2	49.4	1565	1737	11.97%	26.21%	61.82%	-1.10	-9.7	21
2016-02-14	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	56.1	1468	1885	7.36%	20.43%	72.21%	-1.69	-2.7	9
2016-02-14	@ NK Zagreb	W 2-1	56.1	1885	1468	72.21%	20.43%	7.36%	+1.69	+2.7	48
2016-02-14	RNK Split	D 1-1	68.0	1523	1662	24.15%	31.68%	44.17%	-0.37	+1.4	23
2016-02-14	@ Inter Zapresic	D 1-1	68.0	1662	1523	44.17%	31.68%	24.15%	+0.37	-1.4	33
2016-02-19	NK Zagreb	W 1-0	48.1	1660	1465	63.98%	25.14%	10.88%	+1.21	+4.6	36
2016-02-19	@ RNK Split	L 0-1	48.1	1465	1660	10.88%	25.14%	63.98%	-1.21	-4.6	9
2016-02-20	Hajduk Split	W 2-1	69.4	1650	1747	29.12%	32.26%	38.62%	-0.17	+13.0	33
2016-02-20	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	69.4	1747	1650	38.62%	32.26%	29.12%	+0.17	-13.0	42
2016-02-20	Inter Zapresic	L 1-2	60.7	1491	1525	37.88%	32.30%	29.82%	+0.13	-12.8	20
2016-02-20	@ Istra 1961	W 2-1	60.7	1525	1491	29.82%	32.30%	37.88%	-0.13	+12.8	26
2016-02-21	Osijek	W 1-0	52.8	1555	1536	44.92%	31.56%	23.52%	+0.38	+9.7	24
2016-02-21	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	52.8	1536	1555	23.52%	31.56%	44.92%	-0.38	-9.7	20
2016-02-21	Rijeka	W 3-0	54.4	1887	1865	45.34%	31.50%	23.16%	+0.39	+26.2	51
2016-02-21	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	54.4	1865	1887	23.16%	31.50%	45.34%	-0.39	-26.1	46
2016-02-26	Istra 1961	D 1-1	59.6	1460	1478	40.13%	32.15%	27.73%	+0.20	-0.8	10
2016-02-26	@ NK Zagreb	D 1-1	59.6	1478	1460	27.73%	32.15%	40.13%	-0.20	+0.8	21
2016-02-26	Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	61.1	1537	1565	38.78%	32.25%	28.97%	+0.16	+10.6	29
2016-02-26	@ Inter Zapresic	L 1-2	61.1	1565	1537	28.97%	32.25%	38.78%	-0.16	-10.6	24
2016-02-27	Hajduk Split	W 1-0	56.2	1839	1734	54.96%	29.05%	15.99%	+0.78	+6.9	49
2016-02-27	@ Rijeka	L 0-1	56.2	1734	1839	15.99%	29.05%	54.96%	-0.78	-6.9	42
2016-02-27	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-3	58.6	1527	1663	24.38%	31.72%	43.90%	-0.36	-16.2	20
2016-02-27	@ Osijek	W 3-1	58.6	1663	1527	43.90%	31.72%	24.38%	+0.36	+16.2	36
2016-02-28	RNK Split	W 1-0	52.1	1913	1665	68.67%	22.56%	8.76%	+1.46	+3.6	54
2016-02-28	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	52.1	1665	1913	8.76%	22.56%	68.67%	-1.46	-3.6	36
2016-03-01	NK Zagreb	W 3-0	42.4	1554	1459	53.88%	29.41%	16.71%	+0.74	+19.8	27
2016-03-01	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-3	42.4	1459	1554	16.71%	29.41%	53.88%	-0.74	-19.8	10
2016-03-01	Osijek	D 2-2	77.3	1727	1510	65.91%	24.12%	9.97%	+1.31	-3.2	43
2016-03-01	@ Hajduk Split	D 2-2	77.3	1510	1727	9.97%	24.12%	65.91%	-1.31	+3.2	21
2016-03-02	Inter Zapresic	L 1-2	71.7	1679	1548	57.75%	28.01%	14.25%	+0.91	-17.9	36
2016-03-02	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	71.7	1548	1679	14.25%	28.01%	57.75%	-0.91	+17.9	32
2016-03-02	Rijeka	L 1-2	63.7	1661	1846	19.62%	30.58%	49.80%	-0.59	-7.9	36
2016-03-02	@ RNK Split	W 2-1	63.7	1846	1661	49.80%	30.58%	19.62%	+0.59	+7.9	52
2016-03-03	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	49.8	1479	1917	6.74%	19.38%	73.89%	-1.79	-2.6	21
2016-03-03	@ Istra 1961	W 1-0	49.8	1917	1479	73.89%	19.38%	6.74%	+1.79	+2.6	57
2016-03-05	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-3	53.1	1440	1662	16.59%	29.36%	54.05%	-0.76	-11.7	10
2016-03-05	@ NK Zagreb	W 3-1	53.1	1662	1440	54.05%	29.36%	16.59%	+0.76	+11.7	39
2016-03-06	Osijek	W 2-1	55.1	1854	1514	75.93%	18.05%	6.01%	+1.90	+2.1	55
2016-03-06	@ Rijeka	L 1-2	55.1	1514	1854	6.01%	18.05%	75.93%	-1.90	-2.1	21
2016-03-06	Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	55.7	1920	1574	76.34%	17.79%	5.87%	+1.92	+2.1	60
2016-03-06	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	55.7	1574	1920	5.87%	17.79%	76.34%	-1.92	-2.1	27
2016-03-07	Istra 1961	D 1-1	68.2	1654	1476	62.30%	25.98%	11.72%	+1.13	-3.9	37
2016-03-07	@ RNK Split	D 1-1	68.2	1476	1654	11.72%	25.98%	62.30%	-1.13	+3.9	22
2016-03-08	Hajduk Split	D 0-0	64.7	1566	1724	22.11%	31.27%	46.62%	-0.46	+1.9	33
2016-03-08	@ Inter Zapresic	D 0-0	64.7	1724	1566	46.62%	31.27%	22.11%	+0.46	-1.9	44
2016-03-11	Inter Zapresic	W 1-0	55.4	1512	1568	34.72%	32.40%	32.88%	+0.02	+12.3	24
2016-03-11	@ Osijek	L 0-1	55.4	1568	1512	32.88%	32.40%	34.72%	-0.02	-12.3	33
2016-03-12	Rijeka	L 0-1	50.8	1480	1856	8.70%	22.47%	68.83%	-1.49	-3.6	22
2016-03-12	@ Istra 1961	W 1-0	50.8	1856	1480	68.83%	22.47%	8.70%	+1.49	+3.6	58
2016-03-12	RNK Split	L 0-1	59.0	1572	1650	31.69%	32.38%	35.93%	-0.08	-12.0	27
2016-03-12	@ Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	59.0	1650	1572	35.93%	32.38%	31.69%	+0.08	+12.0	40
2016-03-13	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-2	63.0	1922	1673	68.67%	22.56%	8.76%	+1.46	+3.2	63
2016-03-13	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-3	63.0	1673	1922	8.76%	22.56%	68.67%	-1.46	-3.2	39
2016-03-13	NK Zagreb	W 1-0	46.3	1722	1428	72.43%	20.29%	7.27%	+1.68	+2.9	47
2016-03-13	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	46.3	1428	1722	7.27%	20.29%	72.43%	-1.68	-2.9	10
2016-03-18	NK Zagreb	W 2-0	41.6	1524	1425	54.32%	29.27%	16.41%	+0.75	+13.4	27
2016-03-18	@ Osijek	L 0-2	41.6	1425	1524	16.41%	29.27%	54.32%	-0.75	-13.4	10
2016-03-19	Inter Zapresic	W 4-0	45.0	1859	1556	73.20%	19.81%	6.99%	+1.72	+9.7	61
2016-03-19	@ Rijeka	L 0-4	45.0	1556	1859	6.99%	19.81%	73.20%	-1.72	-9.7	33
2016-03-19	Istra 1961	W 2-0	45.3	1560	1476	52.63%	29.80%	17.57%	+0.68	+14.3	30
2016-03-19	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	45.3	1476	1560	17.57%	29.80%	52.63%	-0.68	-14.3	22
2016-03-20	Dinamo Zagreb	W 1-0	67.3	1725	1925	18.29%	30.10%	51.61%	-0.66	+17.3	50
2016-03-20	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	67.3	1925	1725	51.61%	30.10%	18.29%	+0.66	-17.3	63
2016-03-20	RNK Split	D 1-1	70.4	1670	1662	43.57%	31.77%	24.67%	+0.33	-1.3	40
2016-03-20	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	70.4	1662	1670	24.67%	31.77%	43.57%	-0.33	+1.3	41
2016-04-01	Inter Zapresic	D 0-0	55.0	1412	1546	24.64%	31.76%	43.60%	-0.35	+1.5	11
2016-04-01	@ NK Zagreb	D 0-0	55.0	1546	1412	43.60%	31.76%	24.64%	+0.35	-1.5	34
2016-04-02	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-3	46.9	1462	1669	17.76%	29.89%	52.35%	-0.69	-20.9	22
2016-04-02	@ Istra 1961	W 3-0	46.9	1669	1462	52.35%	29.89%	17.76%	+0.69	+20.9	43
2016-04-02	Rijeka	D 0-0	67.6	1574	1869	12.13%	26.36%	61.52%	-1.11	+4.2	31
2016-04-02	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	67.6	1869	1574	61.52%	26.36%	12.13%	+1.11	-4.2	62
2016-04-03	Hajduk Split	D 0-0	65.5	1663	1742	31.50%	32.37%	36.13%	-0.09	+0.3	42
2016-04-03	@ RNK Split	D 0-0	65.5	1742	1663	36.13%	32.37%	31.50%	+0.09	-0.4	51
2016-04-03	Osijek	W 3-0	43.9	1908	1537	78.09%	16.63%	5.29%	+2.04	+5.2	66
2016-04-03	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	43.9	1537	1908	5.29%	16.63%	78.09%	-2.04	-5.2	27
2016-04-08	RNK Split	D 0-0	62.9	1532	1663	24.96%	31.81%	43.23%	-0.34	+1.4	28
2016-04-08	@ Osijek	D 0-0	62.9	1663	1532	43.23%	31.81%	24.96%	+0.34	-1.4	43
2016-04-09	NK Zagreb	W 3-0	40.9	1865	1413	83.21%	13.09%	3.69%	+2.43	+3.4	65
2016-04-09	@ Rijeka	L 0-3	40.9	1413	1865	3.69%	13.09%	83.21%	-2.43	-3.4	11
2016-04-09	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	50.7	1690	1578	55.66%	28.80%	15.54%	+0.81	+12.7	46
2016-04-09	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	50.7	1578	1690	15.54%	28.80%	55.66%	-0.81	-12.7	31
2016-04-10	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	51.8	1544	1913	8.96%	22.83%	68.21%	-1.46	-3.7	34
2016-04-10	@ Inter Zapresic	W 1-0	51.8	1913	1544	68.21%	22.83%	8.96%	+1.46	+3.7	69
2016-04-10	Istra 1961	W 3-0	42.1	1742	1441	72.94%	19.97%	7.08%	+1.71	+7.6	54
2016-04-10	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-3	42.1	1441	1742	7.08%	19.97%	72.94%	-1.71	-7.6	22
2016-04-15	Inter Zapresic	D 0-0	64.0	1662	1541	56.71%	28.41%	14.88%	+0.86	-3.5	44
2016-04-15	@ RNK Split	D 0-0	64.0	1541	1662	14.88%	28.41%	56.71%	-0.86	+3.5	35
2016-04-15	Osijek	D 0-0	55.3	1434	1533	28.76%	32.23%	39.00%	-0.19	+0.8	23
2016-04-15	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	55.3	1533	1434	39.00%	32.23%	28.76%	+0.19	-0.8	29
2016-04-16	NK Zagreb	W 1-0	45.5	1917	1410	86.14%	11.00%	2.86%	+2.69	+0.9	72
2016-04-16	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	45.5	1410	1917	2.86%	11.00%	86.14%	-2.69	-0.9	11
2016-04-16	Rijeka	L 0-1	58.4	1702	1868	21.34%	31.08%	47.58%	-0.50	-9.0	46
2016-04-16	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 1-0	58.4	1868	1702	47.58%	31.08%	21.34%	+0.50	+9.0	68
2016-04-17	Hajduk Split	D 0-0	65.3	1566	1749	19.68%	30.60%	49.72%	-0.58	+2.4	32
2016-04-17	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	65.3	1749	1566	49.72%	30.60%	19.68%	+0.58	-2.4	55
2016-04-19	Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	66.4	1877	1918	37.00%	32.34%	30.66%	+0.10	-0.5	69
2016-04-19	@ Rijeka	D 0-0	66.4	1918	1877	30.66%	32.34%	37.00%	-0.10	+0.5	73
2016-04-19	RNK Split	W 2-0	57.8	1409	1658	14.70%	28.30%	57.00%	-0.90	+35.3	14
2016-04-19	@ NK Zagreb	L 0-2	57.8	1658	1409	57.00%	28.30%	14.70%	+0.90	-35.3	44
2016-04-20	Istra 1961	W 3-0	40.6	1544	1434	55.50%	28.86%	15.64%	+0.81	+18.6	38
2016-04-20	@ Inter Zapresic	L 0-3	40.6	1434	1544	15.64%	28.86%	55.50%	-0.81	-18.6	23
2016-04-20	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-0	54.3	1747	1694	49.17%	30.73%	20.10%	+0.54	+16.0	58
2016-04-20	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-2	54.3	1694	1747	20.10%	30.73%	49.17%	-0.54	-16.0	46
2016-04-21	Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	60.1	1533	1568	37.67%	32.31%	30.02%	+0.12	-0.6	30
2016-04-21	@ Osijek	D 0-0	60.1	1568	1533	30.02%	32.31%	37.67%	-0.12	+0.6	33
2016-04-23	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	54.1	1623	1918	12.13%	26.36%	61.51%	-1.11	-5.2	44
2016-04-23	@ RNK Split	W 1-0	54.1	1918	1623	61.51%	26.36%	12.13%	+1.11	+5.2	76
2016-04-23	NK Zagreb	L 1-4	49.3	1416	1444	38.66%	32.26%	29.09%	+0.15	-31.9	23
2016-04-23	@ Istra 1961	W 4-1	49.3	1444	1416	29.09%	32.26%	38.66%	-0.15	+31.9	17
2016-04-24	Osijek	W 2-0	48.6	1677	1532	59.17%	27.42%	13.42%	+0.97	+11.0	49
2016-04-24	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	48.6	1532	1677	13.42%	27.42%	59.17%	-0.97	-11.0	30
2016-04-24	Rijeka	L 1-2	66.6	1763	1877	27.03%	32.08%	40.90%	-0.25	-10.1	58
2016-04-24	@ Hajduk Split	W 2-1	66.6	1877	1763	40.90%	32.08%	27.03%	+0.25	+10.1	72
2016-04-25	Inter Zapresic	W 4-1	54.4	1569	1563	43.25%	31.81%	24.94%	+0.31	+23.3	36
2016-04-25	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-4	54.4	1563	1569	24.94%	31.81%	43.25%	-0.31	-23.4	38
2016-04-29	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-1	65.7	1539	1688	23.04%	31.47%	45.49%	-0.42	+25.5	41
2016-04-29	@ Inter Zapresic	L 1-3	65.7	1688	1539	45.49%	31.47%	23.04%	+0.42	-25.5	49
2016-04-30	Istra 1961	W 1-0	44.8	1923	1384	87.66%	9.89%	2.45%	+2.84	+0.8	79
2016-04-30	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	44.8	1384	1923	2.45%	9.89%	87.66%	-2.84	-0.8	23
2016-04-30	Slaven Belupo	L 0-3	48.2	1476	1592	26.75%	32.05%	41.21%	-0.26	-29.2	17
2016-04-30	@ NK Zagreb	W 3-0	48.2	1592	1476	41.21%	32.05%	26.75%	+0.26	+29.2	39
2016-05-01	Hajduk Split	W 2-1	72.0	1521	1753	15.89%	28.99%	55.12%	-0.81	+17.2	33
2016-05-01	@ Osijek	L 1-2	72.0	1753	1521	55.12%	28.99%	15.89%	+0.81	-17.2	58
2016-05-01	RNK Split	D 0-0	69.3	1887	1618	70.40%	21.54%	8.06%	+1.56	-5.4	73
2016-05-01	@ Rijeka	D 0-0	69.3	1618	1887	8.06%	21.54%	70.40%	-1.56	+5.4	45
2016-05-06	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	49.0	1621	1924	11.74%	26.00%	62.26%	-1.15	-13.8	39
2016-05-06	@ Slaven Belupo	W 3-0	49.0	1924	1621	62.26%	26.00%	11.74%	+1.15	+13.8	82
2016-05-07	NK Zagreb	W 2-0	43.9	1663	1447	65.85%	24.15%	10.00%	+1.31	+7.9	52
2016-05-07	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	43.9	1447	1663	10.00%	24.15%	65.85%	-1.31	-7.9	17
2016-05-07	Rijeka	D 1-1	73.5	1538	1881	9.94%	24.08%	65.99%	-1.34	+4.3	34
2016-05-07	@ Osijek	D 1-1	73.5	1881	1538	65.99%	24.08%	9.94%	+1.34	-4.3	74
2016-05-08	Inter Zapresic	L 0-2	64.3	1736	1565	61.65%	26.29%	12.05%	+1.09	-37.6	58
2016-05-08	@ Hajduk Split	W 2-0	64.3	1565	1736	12.05%	26.29%	61.65%	-1.09	+37.6	44
2016-05-08	RNK Split	D 0-0	57.8	1383	1623	15.32%	28.68%	56.00%	-0.85	+3.4	24
2016-05-08	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	57.8	1623	1383	56.00%	28.68%	15.32%	+0.85	-3.4	46
2016-05-13	Osijek	W 4-2	59.0	1603	1543	49.93%	30.55%	19.53%	+0.57	+12.1	47
2016-05-13	@ Inter Zapresic	L 2-4	59.0	1543	1603	19.53%	30.55%	49.93%	-0.57	-12.1	34
2016-05-14	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	50.0	1671	1938	13.65%	27.59%	58.77%	-0.98	-21.2	52
2016-05-14	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 4-0	50.0	1938	1671	58.77%	27.59%	13.65%	+0.98	+21.2	85
2016-05-14	Hajduk Split	L 2-3	61.2	1439	1698	14.11%	27.91%	57.98%	-0.94	-5.5	17
2016-05-14	@ NK Zagreb	W 3-2	61.2	1698	1439	57.98%	27.91%	14.11%	+0.94	+5.5	61
2016-05-14	Istra 1961	W 2-0	41.7	1877	1387	85.32%	11.59%	3.09%	+2.61	+1.9	77
2016-05-14	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	41.7	1387	1877	3.09%	11.59%	85.32%	-2.61	-1.9	24
2016-05-14	Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	59.4	1620	1607	44.09%	31.69%	24.21%	+0.35	-28.7	46
2016-05-14	@ RNK Split	W 2-0	59.4	1607	1620	24.21%	31.69%	44.09%	-0.35	+28.8	42

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2016-05-08	12.05%	Inter Zapresic	1565	2	@ Hajduk Split	1736	0
2	2016-03-02	14.25%	Inter Zapresic	1548	2	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1679	1
3	2016-04-19	14.70%	@ NK Zagreb	1409	2	RNK Split	1658	0
4	2015-10-30	15.22%	@ RNK Split	1636	1	Dinamo Zagreb	1877	0
5	2016-05-01	15.89%	@ Osijek	1521	2	Hajduk Split	1753	1
6	2015-11-07	17.26%	@ Osijek	1503	1	Hajduk Split	1716	0
7	2016-03-20	18.29%	@ Hajduk Split	1725	1	Dinamo Zagreb	1925	0
8	2015-08-21	20.02%	Inter Zapresic	1569	2	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1623	1
9	2016-04-29	23.04%	@ Inter Zapresic	1539	3	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1688	1
10	2015-11-07	24.09%	@ NK Zagreb	1485	2	Slaven Belupo	1624	0
11	2016-05-14	24.21%	Slaven Belupo	1607	2	@ RNK Split	1620	0
12	2015-08-10	25.75%	Hajduk Split	1625	2	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1624	1
13	2015-07-11	26.51%	Osijek	1589	1	@ NK Zagreb	1582	0
14	2015-12-20	27.51%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1620	3	@ Slaven Belupo	1604	0
15	2015-07-26	29.00%	@ Istra 1961	1561	4	Hajduk Split	1659	1
16	2016-04-23	29.09%	NK Zagreb	1444	4	@ Istra 1961	1416	1
17	2016-02-20	29.12%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1650	2	Hajduk Split	1747	1
18	2015-09-26	29.70%	Inter Zapresic	1548	3	@ NK Zagreb	1515	2
19	2016-02-20	29.82%	Inter Zapresic	1525	2	@ Istra 1961	1491	1
20	2015-11-06	29.89%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1591	2	@ Inter Zapresic	1556	1
21	2015-12-06	30.63%	Osijek	1526	1	@ NK Zagreb	1486	0
22	2015-12-06	30.72%	Slaven Belupo	1574	2	@ Istra 1961	1533	0
23	2015-08-17	31.06%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1610	1	@ Osijek	1567	0
24	2015-10-25	31.58%	@ Rijeka	1811	2	Dinamo Zagreb	1890	1
25	2015-09-27	32.32%	Hajduk Split	1694	2	@ RNK Split	1641	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2015-12-20	39.03	Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1620	27.51%	@ Slaven Belupo	0	1604	40.36%	32.13%
2	2015-07-20	37.93	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	6	1597	42.22%	Istra 1961	1	1599	25.84%	31.94%
3	2015-11-01	37.88	@ Slaven Belupo	4	1586	41.46%	Inter Zapresic	0	1594	26.52%	32.02%
4	2016-05-08	37.59	Inter Zapresic	2	1565	12.05%	@ Hajduk Split	0	1736	61.65%	26.29%
5	2016-04-19	35.34	@ NK Zagreb	2	1409	14.70%	RNK Split	0	1658	57.00%	28.30%
6	2015-11-01	33.29	Rijeka	3	1823	35.42%	@ Hajduk Split	0	1749	32.18%	32.39%
7	2015-07-26	31.94	@ Istra 1961	4	1561	29.00%	Hajduk Split	1	1659	38.75%	32.25%
8	2016-04-23	31.89	NK Zagreb	4	1444	29.09%	@ Istra 1961	1	1416	38.66%	32.26%
9	2015-08-09	30.12	@ Slaven Belupo	3	1578	39.90%	Osijek	0	1597	27.93%	32.17%
10	2016-04-30	29.19	Slaven Belupo	3	1592	41.21%	@ NK Zagreb	0	1476	26.75%	32.05%
11	2015-11-07	28.82	@ NK Zagreb	2	1485	24.09%	Slaven Belupo	0	1624	44.24%	31.67%
12	2016-05-14	28.75	Slaven Belupo	2	1607	24.21%	@ RNK Split	0	1620	44.09%	31.69%
13	2015-10-24	28.53	@ Inter Zapresic	3	1566	42.11%	Istra 1961	0	1568	25.95%	31.95%
14	2016-02-21	26.16	@ Dinamo Zagreb	3	1887	45.34%	Rijeka	0	1865	23.16%	31.50%
15	2016-04-29	25.51	@ Inter Zapresic	3	1539	23.04%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1688	45.49%	31.47%
16	2015-12-06	25.20	Slaven Belupo	2	1574	30.72%	@ Istra 1961	0	1533	36.93%	32.35%
17	2015-08-29	25.15	@ RNK Split	3	1628	46.71%	Istra 1961	0	1595	22.04%	31.25%
18	2015-09-27	24.41	Hajduk Split	2	1694	32.32%	@ RNK Split	0	1641	35.29%	32.39%
19	2015-09-11	23.43	Dinamo Zagreb	4	1863	56.41%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1619	15.06%	28.53%
20	2016-04-25	23.36	@ Slaven Belupo	4	1569	43.25%	Inter Zapresic	1	1563	24.94%	31.81%
21	2015-08-30	22.63	Hajduk Split	2	1663	36.02%	@ Inter Zapresic	0	1585	31.61%	32.38%
22	2016-05-14	21.22	Dinamo Zagreb	4	1938	58.77%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1671	13.65%	27.59%
23	2016-04-02	20.93	Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1669	52.35%	@ Istra 1961	0	1462	17.76%	29.89%
24	2015-08-07	20.78	@ RNK Split	3	1641	52.56%	NK Zagreb	0	1559	17.62%	29.82%
25	2015-08-23	20.26	@ Hajduk Split	3	1643	53.26%	Osijek	0	1554	17.13%	29.61%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2015-07-19	81.4	@ Rijeka	3	1756	62.78%	Slaven Belupo	3	1574	11.47%	25.75%
2	2015-07-26	79.9	@ NK Zagreb	3	1568	19.52%	Rijeka	3	1754	49.93%	30.54%
3	2015-10-03	79.3	@ Inter Zapresic	2	1560	10.54%	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1889	64.68%	24.78%
4	2016-03-01	77.3	@ Hajduk Split	2	1727	65.91%	Osijek	2	1510	9.97%	24.12%
5	2015-08-02	74.6	@ Hajduk Split	2	1627	48.82%	Slaven Belupo	2	1576	20.37%	30.81%
6	2015-07-27	74.3	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1576	34.42%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1635	33.17%	32.41%
7	2015-12-13	74.2	@ Rijeka	1	1854	69.24%	Slaven Belupo	1	1599	8.53%	22.23%
8	2015-08-01	74.0	@ Osijek	2	1598	43.16%	Istra 1961	2	1593	25.02%	31.82%
9	2016-05-07	73.5	@ Osijek	1	1538	9.94%	Rijeka	1	1881	65.99%	24.08%
10	2015-07-12	73.2	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1	1831	62.00%	Hajduk Split	1	1657	11.87%	26.13%
11	2015-11-21	73.2	@ Osijek	1	1521	10.05%	Rijeka	1	1861	65.73%	24.22%
12	2015-08-22	72.5	@ Istra 1961	1	1592	13.77%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1857	58.55%	27.68%
13	2016-05-01	72.0	@ Osijek	2	1521	15.89%	Hajduk Split	1	1753	55.12%	28.99%
14	2015-07-19	71.9	@ Osijek	1	1604	16.50%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1827	54.20%	29.31%
15	2016-03-02	71.7	Inter Zapresic	2	1548	14.25%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1679	57.75%	28.01%
16	2016-03-20	70.4	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1670	43.57%	RNK Split	1	1662	24.67%	31.77%
17	2015-12-05	70.0	@ RNK Split	1	1665	49.13%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1612	20.13%	30.74%
18	2015-10-25	69.5	@ Rijeka	2	1811	31.58%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1890	36.04%	32.38%
19	2015-12-20	69.4	@ RNK Split	1	1665	57.59%	Osijek	1	1535	14.34%	28.07%
20	2016-02-20	69.4	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1650	29.12%	Hajduk Split	1	1747	38.62%	32.26%
21	2016-05-01	69.3	@ Rijeka	0	1887	70.40%	RNK Split	0	1618	8.06%	21.54%
22	2015-08-21	69.2	Inter Zapresic	2	1569	20.02%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1623	49.28%	30.70%
23	2015-09-12	69.1	@ Slaven Belupo	1	1594	34.34%	RNK Split	1	1653	33.25%	32.41%
24	2015-08-10	68.7	Hajduk Split	2	1625	25.75%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1624	42.32%	31.92%
25	2015-10-18	68.5	@ RNK Split	1	1628	50.55%	Inter Zapresic	1	1563	19.06%	30.39%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2016-04-20	40.6	@ Inter Zapresic	3	1544	55.50%	Istra 1961	0	1434	15.64%	28.86%
2	2016-04-09	40.9	@ Rijeka	3	1865	83.21%	NK Zagreb	0	1413	3.69%	13.09%
3	2016-03-18	41.6	@ Osijek	2	1524	54.32%	NK Zagreb	0	1425	16.41%	29.27%
4	2016-05-14	41.7	@ Rijeka	2	1877	85.32%	Istra 1961	0	1387	3.09%	11.59%
5	2016-04-10	42.1	@ Hajduk Split	3	1742	72.94%	Istra 1961	0	1441	7.08%	19.97%
6	2016-03-01	42.4	@ Slaven Belupo	3	1554	53.88%	NK Zagreb	0	1459	16.71%	29.41%
7	2016-04-03	43.9	@ Dinamo Zagreb	3	1908	78.09%	Osijek	0	1537	5.29%	16.63%
8	2016-05-07	43.9	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1663	65.85%	NK Zagreb	0	1447	10.00%	24.15%
9	2016-04-30	44.8	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1	1923	87.66%	Istra 1961	0	1384	2.45%	9.89%
10	2016-03-19	45.0	@ Rijeka	4	1859	73.20%	Inter Zapresic	0	1556	6.99%	19.81%
11	2016-03-19	45.3	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1560	52.63%	Istra 1961	0	1476	17.57%	29.80%
12	2016-04-16	45.5	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1	1917	86.14%	NK Zagreb	0	1410	2.86%	11.00%
13	2015-08-30	46.0	@ Rijeka	5	1783	68.77%	Osijek	0	1533	8.72%	22.51%
14	2016-03-13	46.3	@ Hajduk Split	1	1722	72.43%	NK Zagreb	0	1428	7.27%	20.29%
15	2015-08-29	46.8	@ Dinamo Zagreb	3	1853	68.72%	Slaven Belupo	0	1604	8.75%	22.54%
16	2016-04-02	46.9	Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1669	52.35%	@ Istra 1961	0	1462	17.76%	29.89%
17	2015-11-21	47.0	@ Hajduk Split	4	1698	60.12%	Inter Zapresic	0	1543	12.88%	27.00%
18	2015-12-18	47.5	Rijeka	2	1850	68.79%	@ NK Zagreb	0	1474	8.72%	22.50%
19	2015-10-16	47.9	@ Dinamo Zagreb	4	1886	79.38%	NK Zagreb	1	1496	4.87%	15.75%
20	2015-11-22	47.9	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1603	53.31%	NK Zagreb	0	1514	17.10%	29.60%
21	2016-02-19	48.1	@ RNK Split	1	1660	63.98%	NK Zagreb	0	1465	10.88%	25.14%
22	2016-04-30	48.2	Slaven Belupo	3	1592	41.21%	@ NK Zagreb	0	1476	26.75%	32.05%
23	2015-08-23	48.3	@ Hajduk Split	3	1643	53.26%	Osijek	0	1554	17.13%	29.61%
24	2015-10-04	48.4	@ Hajduk Split	3	1718	58.81%	Istra 1961	0	1576	13.62%	27.57%
25	2015-08-07	48.6	@ RNK Split	3	1641	52.56%	NK Zagreb	0	1559	17.62%	29.82%