2014-15 Prva HNL Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Dinamo Zagreb

88 points · 17th Title

Last Title: 2013-14

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dinamo Zagreb

7.05 points above expected

88 points · 80.95 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Istra 1961

8.27 points below expected

35 points · 43.27 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Dinamo Zagreb Champion	36	26	10	0	88	82	21	+61	80.95	+7.05
2	Rijeka	36	22	9	5	75	76	29	+47	68.89	+6.11
3	Hajduk Split	36	15	8	13	53	59	53	+6	52.44	+0.56
4	Lokomotiva Zagreb	36	13	7	16	46	59	68	-9	49.95	-3.95
5	NK Zagreb	36	13	7	16	46	45	54	-9	40.01	+5.99
6	Slaven Belupo	36	11	9	16	42	38	49	-11	40.06	+1.94
7	RNK Split	36	9	14	13	41	42	49	-7	48.37	-7.37
8	Osijek	36	10	6	20	36	42	59	-17	39.68	-3.68
9	Istra 1961	36	7	14	15	35	36	59	-23	43.27	-8.27
10	Zadar	36	8	8	20	32	37	75	-38	32.48	-0.48

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Dinamo Zagreb	88	80.95	+7.05
2	Rijeka	75	68.89	+6.11
3	NK Zagreb	46	40.01	+5.99
4	Slaven Belupo	42	40.06	+1.94
5	Hajduk Split	53	52.44	+0.56

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Istra 1961	35	43.27	-8.27
2	RNK Split	41	48.37	-7.37
3	Lokomotiva Zagreb	46	49.95	-3.95
4	Osijek	36	39.68	-3.68
5	Zadar	32	32.48	-0.48

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rijeka	5	Jul 20 – Aug 16	1 in 31
2	NK Zagreb	2	Nov 29 – Dec 5	1 in 16
3	Zadar	2	Sep 14 – Sep 19	1 in 14
4	Osijek	2	Aug 17 – Aug 24	1 in 12
5	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	Aug 24 – Aug 30	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hajduk Split	4	Mar 22 – Apr 18	1 in 148
2	Lokomotiva Zagreb	5	Apr 17 – May 10	1 in 133
3	Osijek	4	Dec 1 – Feb 8	1 in 38
4	RNK Split	4	Apr 29 – May 16	1 in 28
5	Istra 1961	3	Sep 13 – Sep 28	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dinamo Zagreb	36	Jul 18 – May 29	1 in 321
2	NK Zagreb	4	Aug 24 – Sep 20	1 in 33
3	Slaven Belupo	5	Nov 1 – Dec 7	1 in 21
4	Hajduk Split	8	Sep 14 – Nov 8	1 in 16
5	Zadar	3	Mar 22 – Apr 11	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	RNK Split	11	Oct 26 – Feb 28	1 in 98
2	Lokomotiva Zagreb	7	Apr 3 – May 10	1 in 84
3	Istra 1961	11	Nov 3 – Mar 8	1 in 56
4	Hajduk Split	5	Mar 14 – Apr 18	1 in 15
5	Rijeka	3	Feb 22 – Mar 9	1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Dinamo Zagreb	1921	85	+21	11	11.0	+0.0
Rijeka	1814	75	+5	10	9.5	+0.5
Hajduk Split	1673	53	-13	7	7.5	-0.5
NK Zagreb	1567	46	+19	7	4.6	+2.4
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1601	46	-28	4	7.4	-3.4
Slaven Belupo	1580	42	+1	7	6.4	+0.6
RNK Split	1624	41	-1	4	6.3	-2.3
Osijek	1576	36	+6	9	6.3	+2.7
Istra 1961	1565	35	-13	5	5.6	-0.6
Zadar	1507	32	+4	5	4.6	+0.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	DZ	HS	I1	LZ	NZ	OSI	RS	RIJ	SB	ZAD
Dinamo Zagreb	—	3-1-0 8.00	3-1-0 9.19	4-0-0 8.58	1-3-0 9.63	3-1-0 9.40	3-1-0 8.78	3-1-0 6.76	2-2-0 9.31	4-0-0 9.86
Hajduk Split	0-1-3 3.14	—	2-1-1 6.79	2-1-1 6.21	1-1-2 7.59	3-0-1 7.27	1-2-1 6.31	0-1-3 4.26	4-0-0 7.16	2-1-1 8.18
Istra 1961	0-1-3 2.14	1-1-2 4.22	—	2-1-1 4.86	1-0-3 5.99	1-2-1 5.79	1-3-0 4.90	0-1-3 3.19	1-2-1 5.91	0-3-1 6.94
Lokomotiva Zagreb	0-0-4 2.64	1-1-2 4.78	1-1-2 6.11	—	2-0-2 6.67	3-1-0 6.35	1-2-1 5.61	2-0-2 3.50	2-1-1 6.52	1-1-2 7.33
NK Zagreb	0-3-1 1.79	2-1-1 3.48	3-0-1 4.99	2-0-2 4.34	—	0-0-4 5.36	2-1-1 4.31	0-0-4 2.82	1-1-2 5.27	3-1-0 6.08
Osijek	0-1-3 1.97	1-0-3 3.78	1-2-1 5.17	0-1-3 4.63	4-0-0 5.61	—	1-1-2 4.41	0-1-3 2.75	1-0-3 5.56	2-0-2 6.27
RNK Split	0-1-3 2.47	1-2-1 4.68	0-3-1 6.07	1-2-1 5.35	1-1-2 6.68	2-1-1 6.57	—	0-2-2 3.49	2-0-2 6.37	2-2-0 7.31
Rijeka	0-1-3 4.25	3-1-0 6.73	3-1-0 7.95	2-0-2 7.60	4-0-0 8.37	3-1-0 8.46	2-2-0 7.60	—	1-3-0 8.52	4-0-0 9.21
Slaven Belupo	0-2-2 2.04	0-0-4 3.88	1-2-1 5.06	1-1-2 4.47	2-1-1 5.73	3-0-1 5.39	2-0-2 4.61	0-3-1 2.68	—	2-0-2 6.49
Zadar	0-0-4 1.61	1-1-2 2.98	1-3-0 4.07	2-1-1 3.74	0-1-3 4.88	2-0-2 4.70	0-2-2 3.72	0-0-4 2.12	2-0-2 4.49	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.91	+10.4
Allowed	0.80	-10.0
Differential	0.98	+5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.00%	6.11%	6.67%	4.44%	3.06%	1.67%	26.94%
1	6.11%	14.44%	7.78%	1.11%	1.11%	0.83%	31.39%
2	6.67%	7.78%	6.11%	2.50%	0.56%	0.56%	24.17%
3	4.44%	1.11%	2.50%	—	0.28%	0.28%	8.61%
4	3.06%	1.11%	0.56%	0.28%	—	—	5.00%
5+	1.67%	0.83%	0.56%	0.28%	—	0.56%	3.89%
Total	26.94%	31.39%	24.17%	8.61%	5.00%	3.89%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.43	1.43	+0.00
SD	1.34	1.34	2.11
CV	0.94	0.94	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	-1	-1	-6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	13.89%	—	—	—	—	19.44%
2	11.11%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	11.11%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%	11.11%
Total	52.78%	33.33%	8.33%	2.78%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.25	0.56	+1.69
SD	1.57	0.81	1.62
CV	0.70	1.46	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	-1	-1	+0

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	16.67%
1	8.33%	13.89%	8.33%	—	—	—	30.56%
2	8.33%	11.11%	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	—	36.11%
3	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	2.78%	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	2.78%	11.11%
Total	22.22%	25.00%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.44	+0.17
SD	1.46	1.21	1.90
CV	0.91	0.83	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	-1	-1	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	25.00%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	41.67%
2	2.78%	5.56%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	16.67%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	2.78%	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	38.89%	25.00%	5.56%	11.11%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.64	-0.64
SD	0.93	1.31	1.46
CV	0.93	0.80	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	5.56%	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	13.89%	—	—	2.78%	27.78%
2	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	2.78%	—	2.78%	33.33%
3	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%	—	5.56%
4	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	25.00%	16.67%	33.33%	8.33%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.89	-0.25
SD	1.44	1.65	2.49
CV	0.88	0.87	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	25.00%
1	8.33%	8.33%	13.89%	2.78%	2.78%	—	36.11%
2	8.33%	11.11%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	27.78%	25.00%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.50	-0.25
SD	1.00	1.40	2.05
CV	0.80	0.94	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	2.78%	33.33%
1	8.33%	8.33%	13.89%	2.78%	2.78%	—	36.11%
2	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	19.44%
3	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
4	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	25.00%	27.78%	19.44%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	1.64	-0.47
SD	1.18	1.27	1.93
CV	1.01	0.77	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	11.11%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	27.78%
1	—	27.78%	8.33%	—	—	2.78%	38.89%
2	5.56%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	47.22%	27.78%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	1.36	-0.19
SD	0.97	1.07	1.67
CV	0.83	0.79	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	2.78%	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	13.89%
1	8.33%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	30.56%
2	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	44.44%	38.89%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	0.81	+1.31
SD	1.62	0.95	2.12
CV	0.77	1.18	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	11.11%	16.67%	2.78%	5.56%	—	44.44%
1	5.56%	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	33.33%	27.78%	8.33%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	1.36	-0.31
SD	1.19	1.13	1.82
CV	1.13	0.83	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	8.33%	8.33%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	41.67%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	30.56%
2	5.56%	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	2.78%	19.44%
3	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	13.89%	8.33%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.03	2.08	-1.06
SD	1.21	1.70	2.39
CV	1.17	0.81	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dinamo Zagreb	1921	88	80.95	+7.05	90.0%	66	69	77	81	85	92	98
Rijeka	1814	75	68.89	+6.11	82.0%	52	57	63	69	73	79	86
Hajduk Split	1673	53	52.44	+0.56	44.0%	34	40	46	52	58	65	68
RNK Split	1624	41	48.37	-7.37	14.0%	28	38	43	47	52	62	69
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1601	46	49.95	-3.95	34.0%	26	38	45	49	55	60	74
Slaven Belupo	1580	42	40.06	+1.94	70.0%	28	31	35	39	44	53	57
Osijek	1576	36	39.68	-3.68	29.0%	28	30	35	39	44	50	53
NK Zagreb	1567	46	40.01	+5.99	81.0%	24	27	35	40	45	50	55
Istra 1961	1565	35	43.27	-8.27	16.0%	27	30	40	43	47	54	59
Zadar	1507	32	32.48	-0.48	46.0%	13	18	27	33	38	43	49

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 18.5% * Slight Edge: 18.5% to 25.5% * Clear Edge: 25.5% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+25.56%

Clear Edge

50.00%25.56%24.44%

Elo Value

Home Edge

159 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

088.74400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.64 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.56+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.13 * Tight Race: 0.13 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.46 * Runaway: 0.46 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.2

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

90%

Dinamo Zagreb, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.36/gm

Comfortable

00.350.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.6 * Some Luck: 5.6 to 8.4 * Lucky: 8.4 to 11.2 * Wild Swing: 11.2 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.95 * Close: 0.95 to 1.42 * Off: 1.42 to 1.89 * Way Off: 1.89 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.31 points

As Expected

07.0017

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.00

01.182.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

90.00%

Dinamo Zagreb

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

14.00%

RNK Split

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.22 * Lopsided: 0.22 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 67% * Clear Edge: 67% to 71% * Wide Edge: 71% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90% * Clear Edge: 90% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95.5% * Dominant: 95.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 58% * Some Drama: 58% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 64% * Very Frequent: 64% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 16.5% * Frequent: 16.5% to 19.5% * Very Frequent: 19.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Even

00.170.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 128.50

2.32

Strong Separation

11.852.353.5

Interquartile Edge

63%

Even

50%65%71%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

92%

Clear Edge

50%92%100%

Close Games

Expected

59%

Some Drama

0%52%100%

Blowouts

Expected

23%

Very Frequent

0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Lopsided: 0.46 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.79 * Near-Lock: 0.79 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 17% * Very Shaky: 17% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.55

Highly Predictable

00.572

Matchup Imbalance

0.42

Notable Separation

00.390.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.60

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.74

Strong Carryover

00.570.791

Upset Rate

Expected

19%

As Expected

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

11%

Solid Favorites

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.11

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.51

Very Underconfident

0.3406781.001.65932

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.100

Well Within Noise

00.1220.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Dinamo Zagreb	90.00%	10.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Rijeka	9.00%	80.00%	10.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Hajduk Split	—	7.00%	34.00%	27.00%	10.00%	12.00%	4.00%	4.00%	2.00%	—
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1.00%	2.00%	24.00%	22.00%	27.00%	10.00%	4.00%	3.00%	6.00%	1.00%
NK Zagreb	—	—	1.00%	8.00%	12.00%	14.00%	15.00%	19.00%	20.00%	11.00%
Slaven Belupo	—	—	5.00%	8.00%	5.00%	11.00%	14.00%	27.00%	17.00%	13.00%
RNK Split	—	1.00%	19.00%	18.00%	26.00%	14.00%	15.00%	2.00%	2.00%	3.00%
Osijek	—	—	1.00%	5.00%	7.00%	14.00%	17.00%	20.00%	22.00%	14.00%
Istra 1961	—	—	6.00%	10.00%	12.00%	23.00%	21.00%	12.00%	6.00%	10.00%
Zadar	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	10.00%	13.00%	25.00%	48.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Dinamo Zagreb	100%	—	—
Hajduk Split	98.00%	2.00%	—
Rijeka	100%	—	—
Lokomotiva Zagreb	93.00%	6.00%	1.00%
RNK Split	95.00%	2.00%	3.00%
Istra 1961	84.00%	6.00%	10.00%
NK Zagreb	69.00%	20.00%	11.00%
Slaven Belupo	70.00%	17.00%	13.00%
Osijek	64.00%	22.00%	14.00%
Zadar	27.00%	25.00%	48.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2014-07-18	Slaven Belupo	W 4-0	44.3	1836	1589	76.35%	14.16%	9.49%	+2.12	+4.9	3
2014-07-18	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	44.3	1589	1836	9.49%	14.16%	76.35%	-2.12	-4.9	0
2014-07-19	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-4	61.6	1589	1629	43.46%	26.82%	29.72%	+0.31	-14.4	0
2014-07-19	@ Osijek	W 4-1	61.6	1629	1589	29.72%	26.82%	43.46%	-0.31	+14.4	3
2014-07-20	Istra 1961	D 1-1	70.9	1686	1623	56.83%	23.56%	19.62%	+0.96	-1.2	1
2014-07-20	@ Hajduk Split	D 1-1	70.9	1623	1686	19.62%	23.56%	56.83%	-0.96	+1.2	1
2014-07-20	Rijeka	L 1-3	59.2	1556	1742	24.55%	25.68%	49.77%	-0.61	-6.5	0
2014-07-20	@ NK Zagreb	W 3-1	59.2	1742	1556	49.77%	25.68%	24.55%	+0.61	+6.5	3
2014-07-21	RNK Split	L 1-2	61.8	1529	1649	32.15%	27.08%	40.77%	-0.20	-4.7	0
2014-07-21	@ Zadar	W 2-1	61.8	1649	1529	40.77%	27.08%	32.15%	+0.20	+4.7	3
2014-07-25	Dinamo Zagreb	L 3-4	70.5	1643	1841	23.34%	25.27%	51.39%	-0.69	-3.3	3
2014-07-25	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 4-3	70.5	1841	1643	51.39%	25.27%	23.34%	+0.69	+3.3	6
2014-07-26	NK Zagreb	W 3-2	62.3	1584	1550	53.27%	24.73%	22.00%	+0.78	+3.2	3
2014-07-26	@ Slaven Belupo	L 2-3	62.3	1550	1584	22.00%	24.73%	53.27%	-0.78	-3.2	0
2014-07-26	Osijek	W 2-1	59.2	1524	1575	41.81%	27.00%	31.20%	+0.24	+4.6	3
2014-07-26	@ Zadar	L 1-2	59.2	1575	1524	31.20%	27.00%	41.81%	-0.24	-4.6	0
2014-07-27	Hajduk Split	W 4-2	62.3	1749	1685	56.95%	23.51%	19.54%	+0.96	+4.7	6
2014-07-27	@ Rijeka	L 2-4	62.3	1685	1749	19.54%	23.51%	56.95%	-0.96	-4.7	1
2014-07-28	Istra 1961	D 1-1	70.0	1653	1624	52.59%	24.93%	22.48%	+0.74	-0.9	4
2014-07-28	@ RNK Split	D 1-1	70.0	1624	1653	22.48%	24.93%	52.59%	-0.74	+0.9	2
2014-08-01	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-0	55.3	1547	1640	35.84%	27.25%	36.92%	-0.03	+10.4	3
2014-08-01	@ NK Zagreb	L 0-2	55.3	1640	1547	36.92%	27.25%	35.84%	+0.03	-10.4	3
2014-08-02	Zadar	W 5-0	42.5	1845	1528	81.99%	10.94%	7.07%	+2.55	+4.3	9
2014-08-02	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-5	42.5	1528	1845	7.07%	10.94%	81.99%	-2.55	-4.3	3
2014-08-03	RNK Split	D 1-1	68.4	1570	1652	37.42%	27.24%	35.34%	+0.04	-0.1	1
2014-08-03	@ Osijek	D 1-1	68.4	1652	1570	35.34%	27.24%	37.42%	-0.04	+0.1	5
2014-08-03	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	49.5	1680	1588	60.37%	22.18%	17.45%	+1.14	+5.4	4
2014-08-03	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-2	49.5	1588	1680	17.45%	22.18%	60.37%	-1.14	-5.4	3
2014-08-04	Rijeka	L 0-1	58.9	1625	1754	31.07%	26.98%	41.95%	-0.25	-4.9	2
2014-08-04	@ Istra 1961	W 1-0	58.9	1754	1625	41.95%	26.98%	31.07%	+0.25	+4.9	9
2014-08-08	NK Zagreb	D 2-2	70.7	1524	1557	44.33%	26.70%	28.97%	+0.35	-0.3	4
2014-08-08	@ Zadar	D 2-2	70.7	1557	1524	28.97%	26.70%	44.33%	-0.35	+0.3	4
2014-08-09	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	59.0	1570	1849	16.95%	21.81%	61.24%	-1.20	-2.6	1
2014-08-09	@ Osijek	W 2-1	59.0	1849	1570	61.24%	21.81%	16.95%	+1.20	+2.6	12
2014-08-09	Istra 1961	D 1-1	68.1	1582	1620	43.63%	26.80%	29.58%	+0.32	-0.4	4
2014-08-09	@ Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	68.1	1620	1582	29.58%	26.80%	43.63%	-0.32	+0.4	3
2014-08-10	Hajduk Split	L 2-5	65.3	1629	1686	41.09%	27.06%	31.85%	+0.21	-12.0	3
2014-08-10	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 5-2	65.3	1686	1629	31.85%	27.06%	41.09%	-0.21	+12.0	7
2014-08-10	Rijeka	L 0-3	55.9	1652	1758	34.02%	27.20%	38.78%	-0.11	-14.3	5
2014-08-10	@ RNK Split	W 3-0	55.9	1758	1652	38.78%	27.20%	34.02%	+0.11	+14.3	12
2014-08-15	RNK Split	W 1-0	50.1	1852	1638	73.24%	15.88%	10.87%	+1.91	+1.6	15
2014-08-15	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	50.1	1638	1852	10.87%	15.88%	73.24%	-1.91	-1.6	5
2014-08-16	Slaven Belupo	W 3-0	45.7	1773	1582	71.04%	17.06%	11.89%	+1.76	+5.0	15
2014-08-16	@ Rijeka	L 0-3	45.7	1582	1773	11.89%	17.06%	71.04%	-1.76	-5.0	4
2014-08-16	Zadar	W 6-0	44.8	1698	1524	69.30%	17.98%	12.72%	+1.66	+10.3	10
2014-08-16	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-6	44.8	1524	1698	12.72%	17.98%	69.30%	-1.66	-10.3	4
2014-08-17	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-2	66.0	1621	1617	49.25%	25.80%	24.95%	+0.58	+3.6	6
2014-08-17	@ Istra 1961	L 2-3	66.0	1617	1621	24.95%	25.80%	49.25%	-0.58	-3.6	3
2014-08-17	Osijek	L 1-2	64.7	1558	1568	47.44%	26.18%	26.38%	+0.50	-6.3	4
2014-08-17	@ NK Zagreb	W 2-1	64.7	1568	1558	26.38%	26.18%	47.44%	-0.50	+6.3	4
2014-08-23	Istra 1961	D 1-1	66.3	1513	1624	33.36%	27.17%	39.47%	-0.14	+0.2	5
2014-08-23	@ Zadar	D 1-1	66.3	1624	1513	39.47%	27.17%	33.36%	+0.14	-0.2	7
2014-08-24	Hajduk Split	W 2-0	58.7	1574	1708	30.38%	26.90%	42.71%	-0.28	+11.6	7
2014-08-24	@ Osijek	L 0-2	58.7	1708	1574	42.71%	26.90%	30.38%	+0.28	-11.6	10
2014-08-24	NK Zagreb	D 1-1	75.3	1853	1551	80.91%	11.57%	7.53%	+2.46	-2.3	16
2014-08-24	@ Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	75.3	1551	1853	7.53%	11.57%	80.91%	-2.46	+2.3	5
2014-08-24	Rijeka	W 2-1	69.2	1614	1778	26.86%	26.29%	46.85%	-0.47	+6.2	6
2014-08-24	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	69.2	1778	1614	46.85%	26.29%	26.86%	+0.47	-6.3	15
2014-08-24	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	49.7	1636	1577	56.43%	23.70%	19.88%	+0.94	+6.1	8
2014-08-24	@ RNK Split	L 0-2	49.7	1577	1636	19.88%	23.70%	56.43%	-0.94	-6.1	4
2014-08-29	Osijek	D 0-0	64.5	1624	1586	53.79%	24.57%	21.63%	+0.80	-1.1	8
2014-08-29	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	64.5	1586	1624	21.63%	24.57%	53.79%	-0.80	+1.1	8
2014-08-30	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	56.8	1571	1620	42.06%	26.97%	30.97%	+0.25	-11.5	4
2014-08-30	@ Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	56.8	1620	1571	30.97%	26.97%	42.06%	-0.25	+11.5	9
2014-08-31	Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-3	69.7	1696	1851	27.90%	26.51%	45.58%	-0.42	-4.0	10
2014-08-31	@ Hajduk Split	W 3-2	69.7	1851	1696	45.58%	26.51%	27.90%	+0.42	+4.0	19
2014-08-31	RNK Split	W 2-1	63.6	1553	1643	36.39%	27.25%	36.36%	+0.00	+5.2	8
2014-08-31	@ NK Zagreb	L 1-2	63.6	1643	1553	36.36%	27.25%	36.39%	+0.00	-5.2	8
2014-08-31	Zadar	W 6-1	45.8	1771	1514	77.29%	13.64%	9.08%	+2.19	+4.8	18
2014-08-31	@ Rijeka	L 1-6	45.8	1514	1771	9.08%	13.64%	77.29%	-2.19	-4.8	5
2014-09-12	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	75.7	1637	1631	49.59%	25.72%	24.69%	+0.60	-0.6	9
2014-09-12	@ RNK Split	D 2-2	75.7	1631	1637	24.69%	25.72%	49.59%	-0.60	+0.6	10
2014-09-13	Istra 1961	W 2-0	47.0	1855	1623	74.97%	14.93%	10.10%	+2.02	+2.8	22
2014-09-13	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	47.0	1623	1855	10.10%	14.93%	74.97%	-2.02	-2.8	8
2014-09-13	Rijeka	L 0-1	56.3	1587	1776	24.20%	25.56%	50.24%	-0.64	-3.9	8
2014-09-13	@ Osijek	W 1-0	56.3	1776	1587	50.24%	25.56%	24.20%	+0.64	+3.9	21
2014-09-14	Hajduk Split	D 2-2	75.1	1559	1692	30.42%	26.91%	42.67%	-0.28	+0.3	9
2014-09-14	@ NK Zagreb	D 2-2	75.1	1692	1559	42.67%	26.91%	30.42%	+0.28	-0.3	11
2014-09-14	Slaven Belupo	W 4-0	47.9	1509	1559	41.93%	26.99%	31.09%	+0.24	+17.4	8
2014-09-14	@ Zadar	L 0-4	47.9	1559	1509	31.09%	26.99%	41.93%	-0.24	-17.4	4
2014-09-19	Zadar	L 0-1	62.9	1632	1526	61.90%	21.53%	16.57%	+1.23	-8.3	10
2014-09-19	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 1-0	62.9	1526	1632	16.57%	21.53%	61.90%	-1.23	+8.3	11
2014-09-20	Hajduk Split	D 1-1	70.1	1637	1692	41.25%	27.05%	31.70%	+0.21	-0.3	10
2014-09-20	@ RNK Split	D 1-1	70.1	1692	1637	31.70%	27.05%	41.25%	-0.21	+0.3	12
2014-09-20	NK Zagreb	L 1-2	68.2	1620	1559	56.63%	23.63%	19.75%	+0.95	-7.3	8
2014-09-20	@ Istra 1961	W 2-1	68.2	1559	1620	19.75%	23.63%	56.63%	-0.95	+7.3	12
2014-09-21	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	67.6	1780	1858	38.06%	27.23%	34.72%	+0.07	-5.3	21
2014-09-21	@ Rijeka	W 2-1	67.6	1858	1780	34.72%	27.23%	38.06%	-0.07	+5.3	25
2014-09-21	Osijek	W 2-0	51.4	1542	1583	43.21%	26.85%	29.94%	+0.30	+8.9	7
2014-09-21	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	51.4	1583	1542	29.94%	26.85%	43.21%	-0.30	-8.9	8
2014-09-27	Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	68.4	1551	1863	14.86%	20.09%	65.05%	-1.41	+1.8	8
2014-09-27	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	68.4	1863	1551	65.05%	20.09%	14.86%	+1.41	-1.8	26
2014-09-27	NK Zagreb	W 3-0	45.1	1775	1566	72.78%	16.13%	11.09%	+1.88	+4.6	24
2014-09-27	@ Rijeka	L 0-3	45.1	1566	1775	11.09%	16.13%	72.78%	-1.88	-4.6	12
2014-09-28	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	57.7	1613	1692	37.81%	27.23%	34.96%	+0.06	-10.6	8
2014-09-28	@ Istra 1961	W 2-0	57.7	1692	1613	34.96%	27.23%	37.81%	-0.06	+10.6	15
2014-09-28	Osijek	W 2-0	49.7	1624	1574	55.21%	24.12%	20.67%	+0.87	+6.4	13
2014-09-28	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	49.7	1574	1624	20.67%	24.12%	55.21%	-0.87	-6.4	8
2014-09-29	Zadar	W 3-0	45.6	1637	1535	61.47%	21.71%	16.81%	+1.20	+7.5	13
2014-09-29	@ RNK Split	L 0-3	45.6	1535	1637	16.81%	21.71%	61.47%	-1.20	-7.5	11
2014-10-03	Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	66.1	1562	1552	50.01%	25.62%	24.37%	+0.62	-0.8	13
2014-10-03	@ NK Zagreb	D 1-1	66.1	1552	1562	24.37%	25.62%	50.01%	-0.62	+0.8	9
2014-10-04	RNK Split	W 2-0	54.3	1602	1644	43.12%	26.86%	30.03%	+0.30	+8.9	11
2014-10-04	@ Istra 1961	L 0-2	54.3	1644	1602	30.03%	26.86%	43.12%	-0.30	-8.9	13
2014-10-04	Zadar	W 4-1	51.0	1568	1527	54.04%	24.50%	21.46%	+0.82	+8.1	11
2014-10-04	@ Osijek	L 1-4	51.0	1527	1568	21.46%	24.50%	54.04%	-0.82	-8.1	11
2014-10-05	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-0	45.4	1861	1630	74.90%	14.97%	10.13%	+2.02	+4.1	29
2014-10-05	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	45.4	1630	1861	10.13%	14.97%	74.90%	-2.02	-4.1	13
2014-10-05	Rijeka	D 1-1	71.0	1703	1779	38.21%	27.22%	34.57%	+0.08	-0.1	16
2014-10-05	@ Hajduk Split	D 1-1	71.0	1779	1703	34.57%	27.22%	38.21%	-0.08	+0.1	25
2014-10-17	Osijek	W 3-0	48.0	1635	1576	56.41%	23.70%	19.89%	+0.94	+8.9	16
2014-10-17	@ RNK Split	L 0-3	48.0	1576	1635	19.89%	23.70%	56.41%	-0.94	-8.9	11
2014-10-18	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	54.4	1519	1865	13.02%	18.29%	68.69%	-1.63	-3.3	11
2014-10-18	@ Zadar	W 3-1	54.4	1865	1519	68.69%	18.29%	13.02%	+1.63	+3.3	32
2014-10-18	Istra 1961	W 3-1	54.4	1779	1611	68.73%	18.27%	13.00%	+1.62	+3.3	28
2014-10-18	@ Rijeka	L 1-3	54.4	1611	1779	13.00%	18.27%	68.73%	-1.62	-3.3	11
2014-10-19	Hajduk Split	L 0-1	56.6	1553	1703	28.49%	26.62%	44.89%	-0.38	-4.5	9
2014-10-19	@ Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	56.6	1703	1553	44.89%	26.62%	28.49%	+0.38	+4.5	19
2014-10-19	NK Zagreb	W 3-0	47.3	1626	1561	57.11%	23.45%	19.44%	+0.97	+8.7	16
2014-10-19	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-3	47.3	1561	1626	19.44%	23.45%	57.11%	-0.97	-8.7	13
2014-10-24	Zadar	W 3-0	44.8	1552	1516	53.54%	24.65%	21.81%	+0.79	+9.8	16
2014-10-24	@ NK Zagreb	L 0-3	44.8	1516	1552	21.81%	24.65%	53.54%	-0.79	-9.8	11
2014-10-25	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	77.4	1707	1635	57.98%	23.13%	18.89%	+1.02	-0.9	20
2014-10-25	@ Hajduk Split	D 2-2	77.4	1635	1707	18.89%	23.13%	57.98%	-1.02	+0.9	17
2014-10-25	Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	50.9	1608	1549	56.38%	23.72%	19.91%	+0.93	+3.3	14
2014-10-25	@ Istra 1961	L 0-1	50.9	1549	1608	19.91%	23.72%	56.38%	-0.93	-3.3	9
2014-10-26	Osijek	W 5-0	43.3	1869	1567	80.90%	11.57%	7.53%	+2.46	+4.6	35
2014-10-26	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-5	43.3	1567	1869	7.53%	11.57%	80.90%	-2.46	-4.6	11
2014-10-26	RNK Split	D 1-1	73.0	1783	1644	65.58%	19.84%	14.59%	+1.43	-1.6	29
2014-10-26	@ Rijeka	D 1-1	73.0	1644	1783	14.59%	19.84%	65.58%	-1.43	+1.6	17
2014-11-01	Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	67.6	1646	1873	20.75%	24.15%	55.10%	-0.88	+1.2	18
2014-11-01	@ RNK Split	D 0-0	67.6	1873	1646	55.10%	24.15%	20.75%	+0.88	-1.2	36
2014-11-01	Rijeka	D 1-1	71.0	1545	1781	20.07%	23.81%	56.12%	-0.93	+1.1	10
2014-11-01	@ Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	71.0	1781	1545	56.12%	23.81%	20.07%	+0.93	-1.1	30
2014-11-02	Hajduk Split	L 0-3	49.5	1506	1706	23.12%	25.19%	51.69%	-0.71	-10.3	11
2014-11-02	@ Zadar	W 3-0	49.5	1706	1506	51.69%	25.19%	23.12%	+0.71	+10.4	23
2014-11-02	NK Zagreb	W 1-0	52.3	1562	1562	48.83%	25.89%	25.28%	+0.56	+4.1	14
2014-11-02	@ Osijek	L 0-1	52.3	1562	1562	25.28%	25.89%	48.83%	-0.56	-4.1	16
2014-11-03	Istra 1961	W 4-2	61.9	1636	1611	52.01%	25.10%	22.89%	+0.71	+5.5	20
2014-11-03	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 2-4	61.9	1611	1636	22.89%	25.10%	52.01%	-0.71	-5.5	14
2014-11-07	RNK Split	W 1-0	58.3	1547	1647	34.80%	27.23%	37.98%	-0.07	+5.7	13
2014-11-07	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	58.3	1647	1547	37.98%	27.23%	34.80%	+0.07	-5.7	18
2014-11-08	Osijek	W 2-1	56.0	1717	1566	66.86%	19.21%	13.93%	+1.51	+2.1	26
2014-11-08	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	56.0	1566	1717	13.93%	19.21%	66.86%	-1.51	-2.1	14
2014-11-08	Zadar	D 1-1	67.0	1606	1495	62.41%	21.30%	16.29%	+1.26	-1.5	15
2014-11-08	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	67.0	1495	1606	16.29%	21.30%	62.41%	-1.26	+1.5	12
2014-11-09	Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	68.5	1558	1872	14.75%	19.99%	65.26%	-1.42	+1.8	17
2014-11-09	@ NK Zagreb	D 0-0	68.5	1872	1558	65.26%	19.99%	14.75%	+1.42	-1.8	37
2014-11-09	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 6-0	48.3	1780	1641	65.60%	19.83%	14.58%	+1.44	+12.2	33
2014-11-09	@ Rijeka	L 0-6	48.3	1641	1780	14.58%	19.83%	65.60%	-1.44	-12.2	20
2014-11-21	Istra 1961	D 1-1	67.3	1564	1604	43.34%	26.83%	29.83%	+0.31	-0.4	15
2014-11-21	@ Osijek	D 1-1	67.3	1604	1564	29.83%	26.83%	43.34%	-0.31	+0.4	16
2014-11-22	Hajduk Split	FW	67.3	1870	1719	66.96%	19.16%	13.88%	+1.51	+0.0	40
2014-11-22	@ Dinamo Zagreb	FL	67.3	1719	1870	13.88%	19.16%	66.96%	-1.51	+0.0	26
2014-11-22	Rijeka	L 0-1	51.6	1497	1792	15.88%	20.97%	63.14%	-1.30	-2.6	12
2014-11-22	@ Zadar	W 1-0	51.6	1792	1497	63.14%	20.97%	15.88%	+1.30	+2.6	36
2014-11-23	NK Zagreb	D 2-2	75.3	1641	1560	59.08%	22.70%	18.22%	+1.08	-1.0	19
2014-11-23	@ RNK Split	D 2-2	75.3	1560	1641	18.22%	22.70%	59.08%	-1.08	+1.0	18
2014-11-23	Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	64.3	1629	1552	58.51%	22.93%	18.57%	+1.04	-1.4	21
2014-11-23	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 0-0	64.3	1552	1629	18.57%	22.93%	58.51%	-1.04	+1.4	14
2014-11-28	RNK Split	D 1-1	69.5	1628	1640	47.10%	26.25%	26.65%	+0.48	-0.6	22
2014-11-28	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	69.5	1640	1628	26.65%	26.25%	47.10%	-0.48	+0.6	20
2014-11-29	NK Zagreb	L 0-2	63.7	1719	1561	67.69%	18.80%	13.51%	+1.56	-16.6	26
2014-11-29	@ Hajduk Split	W 2-0	63.7	1561	1719	13.51%	18.80%	67.69%	-1.56	+16.6	21
2014-11-29	Zadar	W 4-0	42.8	1554	1494	56.37%	23.72%	19.91%	+0.93	+11.7	17
2014-11-29	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-4	42.8	1494	1554	19.91%	23.72%	56.37%	-0.93	-11.7	12
2014-11-30	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	49.5	1605	1870	17.84%	22.45%	59.71%	-1.12	-10.4	16
2014-11-30	@ Istra 1961	W 4-0	49.5	1870	1605	59.71%	22.45%	17.84%	+1.12	+10.4	43
2014-12-01	Osijek	W 2-1	54.5	1795	1564	74.90%	14.97%	10.13%	+2.02	+1.4	39
2014-12-01	@ Rijeka	L 1-2	54.5	1564	1795	10.13%	14.97%	74.90%	-2.02	-1.4	15
2014-12-05	Istra 1961	W 1-0	54.3	1577	1594	46.51%	26.36%	27.13%	+0.45	+4.3	24
2014-12-05	@ NK Zagreb	L 0-1	54.3	1594	1577	27.13%	26.36%	46.51%	-0.45	-4.3	16
2014-12-06	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 2-5	57.2	1483	1627	29.11%	26.72%	44.17%	-0.35	-9.2	12
2014-12-06	@ Zadar	W 5-2	57.2	1627	1483	44.17%	26.72%	29.11%	+0.35	+9.2	25
2014-12-06	Rijeka	W 3-0	50.4	1881	1796	59.42%	22.57%	18.02%	+1.09	+8.1	46
2014-12-06	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	50.4	1796	1881	18.02%	22.57%	59.42%	-1.09	-8.1	39
2014-12-07	RNK Split	W 2-1	59.8	1702	1641	56.61%	23.63%	19.76%	+0.95	+3.1	29
2014-12-07	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	59.8	1641	1702	19.76%	23.63%	56.61%	-0.95	-3.0	20
2014-12-07	Slaven Belupo	L 2-3	70.4	1562	1565	48.41%	25.98%	25.61%	+0.54	-6.1	15
2014-12-07	@ Osijek	W 3-2	70.4	1565	1562	25.61%	25.98%	48.41%	-0.54	+6.1	20
2014-12-12	RNK Split	D 1-1	65.8	1473	1638	26.80%	26.28%	46.92%	-0.48	+0.6	13
2014-12-12	@ Zadar	D 1-1	65.8	1638	1473	46.92%	26.28%	26.80%	+0.48	-0.6	21
2014-12-13	Istra 1961	W 5-3	61.0	1705	1590	62.98%	21.05%	15.97%	+1.29	+3.6	32
2014-12-13	@ Hajduk Split	L 3-5	61.0	1590	1705	15.97%	21.05%	62.98%	-1.29	-3.6	16
2014-12-13	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	55.6	1556	1636	37.70%	27.24%	35.06%	+0.06	-10.6	15
2014-12-13	@ Osijek	W 2-0	55.6	1636	1556	35.06%	27.24%	37.70%	-0.06	+10.6	28
2014-12-14	Slaven Belupo	W 3-2	58.4	1889	1571	82.07%	10.89%	7.04%	+2.56	+0.9	49
2014-12-14	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-3	58.4	1571	1889	7.04%	10.89%	82.07%	-2.56	-0.9	20
2014-12-15	Rijeka	L 1-2	61.3	1582	1788	22.57%	24.97%	52.46%	-0.74	-3.5	24
2014-12-15	@ NK Zagreb	W 2-1	61.3	1788	1582	52.46%	24.97%	22.57%	+0.74	+3.5	42
2015-02-06	Istra 1961	D 2-2	75.4	1637	1586	55.35%	24.07%	20.58%	+0.88	-0.8	22
2015-02-06	@ RNK Split	D 2-2	75.4	1586	1637	20.58%	24.07%	55.35%	-0.88	+0.8	17
2015-02-07	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	55.1	1890	1647	75.96%	14.38%	9.66%	+2.09	+1.3	52
2015-02-07	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	55.1	1647	1890	9.66%	14.38%	75.96%	-2.09	-1.3	28
2015-02-08	Osijek	W 3-1	55.1	1474	1546	38.91%	27.20%	33.90%	+0.11	+8.5	16
2015-02-08	@ Zadar	L 1-3	55.1	1546	1474	33.90%	27.20%	38.91%	-0.11	-8.5	15
2015-02-08	Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	52.7	1578	1570	49.80%	25.67%	24.53%	+0.61	+4.0	27
2015-02-08	@ NK Zagreb	L 0-1	52.7	1570	1578	24.53%	25.67%	49.80%	-0.61	-4.0	20
2015-02-14	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-6	55.9	1582	1646	40.06%	27.13%	32.80%	+0.16	-30.8	27
2015-02-14	@ NK Zagreb	W 6-0	55.9	1646	1582	32.80%	27.13%	40.06%	-0.16	+30.8	31
2015-02-14	RNK Split	W 4-0	53.2	1537	1636	34.95%	27.23%	37.82%	-0.07	+20.1	18
2015-02-14	@ Osijek	L 0-4	53.2	1636	1537	37.82%	27.23%	34.95%	+0.07	-20.2	22
2015-02-15	Rijeka	D 0-0	66.6	1587	1792	22.77%	25.05%	52.18%	-0.73	+1.0	18
2015-02-15	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	66.6	1792	1587	52.18%	25.05%	22.77%	+0.73	-1.0	43
2015-02-15	Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	56.2	1709	1567	65.97%	19.65%	14.38%	+1.46	+2.2	35
2015-02-15	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	56.2	1567	1709	14.38%	19.65%	65.97%	-1.46	-2.2	20
2015-02-16	Zadar	W 2-0	42.5	1891	1483	87.90%	7.47%	4.63%	+3.14	+1.1	55
2015-02-16	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	42.5	1483	1891	4.63%	7.47%	87.90%	-3.14	-1.1	16
2015-02-18	Hajduk Split	W 3-0	50.3	1791	1711	58.84%	22.80%	18.37%	+1.06	+8.2	46
2015-02-18	@ Rijeka	L 0-3	50.3	1711	1791	18.37%	22.80%	58.84%	-1.06	-8.2	35
2015-02-20	Istra 1961	W 2-1	59.7	1564	1588	45.60%	26.51%	27.89%	+0.41	+4.2	23
2015-02-20	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	59.7	1588	1564	27.89%	26.51%	45.60%	-0.41	-4.2	18
2015-02-21	Hajduk Split	W 2-1	63.6	1676	1703	45.24%	26.57%	28.19%	+0.39	+4.2	34
2015-02-21	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	63.6	1703	1676	28.19%	26.57%	45.24%	-0.39	-4.2	35
2015-02-21	NK Zagreb	L 0-1	53.7	1481	1551	39.16%	27.18%	33.66%	+0.12	-5.8	16
2015-02-21	@ Zadar	W 1-0	53.7	1551	1481	33.66%	27.18%	39.16%	-0.12	+5.8	30
2015-02-22	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	73.4	1557	1892	13.62%	18.91%	67.47%	-1.55	+1.7	19
2015-02-22	@ Osijek	D 1-1	73.4	1892	1557	67.47%	18.91%	13.62%	+1.55	-1.7	56
2015-02-22	Rijeka	D 1-1	71.2	1616	1799	24.90%	25.78%	49.32%	-0.59	+0.7	23
2015-02-22	@ RNK Split	D 1-1	71.2	1799	1616	49.32%	25.78%	24.90%	+0.59	-0.8	47
2015-02-27	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	69.1	1584	1681	35.33%	27.24%	37.43%	-0.05	+0.1	19
2015-02-27	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	69.1	1681	1584	37.43%	27.24%	35.33%	+0.05	-0.1	35
2015-02-28	RNK Split	W 2-0	46.0	1890	1617	78.60%	12.89%	8.51%	+2.28	+2.3	59
2015-02-28	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	46.0	1617	1890	8.51%	12.89%	78.60%	-2.28	-2.3	23
2015-02-28	Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	74.0	1798	1569	74.75%	15.05%	10.19%	+2.01	-2.0	48
2015-02-28	@ Rijeka	D 1-1	74.0	1569	1798	10.19%	15.05%	74.75%	-2.01	+2.0	24
2015-03-01	Osijek	L 0-4	54.4	1557	1559	48.54%	25.96%	25.51%	+0.55	-24.4	30
2015-03-01	@ NK Zagreb	W 4-0	54.4	1559	1557	25.51%	25.96%	48.54%	-0.55	+24.4	22
2015-03-01	Zadar	D 2-2	76.9	1698	1476	74.14%	15.39%	10.47%	+1.97	-1.5	36
2015-03-01	@ Hajduk Split	D 2-2	76.9	1476	1698	10.47%	15.39%	74.14%	-1.97	+1.5	17
2015-03-07	NK Zagreb	W 2-0	43.7	1893	1533	85.02%	9.17%	5.81%	+2.83	+1.4	62
2015-03-07	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	43.7	1533	1893	5.81%	9.17%	85.02%	-2.83	-1.4	30
2015-03-07	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	49.6	1615	1571	54.50%	24.35%	21.15%	+0.84	+6.5	26
2015-03-07	@ RNK Split	L 0-2	49.6	1571	1615	21.15%	24.35%	54.50%	-0.84	-6.5	24
2015-03-08	Hajduk Split	L 0-1	58.4	1583	1697	33.01%	27.15%	39.85%	-0.16	-5.1	22
2015-03-08	@ Osijek	W 1-0	58.4	1697	1583	39.85%	27.15%	33.01%	+0.16	+5.1	39
2015-03-08	Istra 1961	W 2-0	52.1	1477	1584	33.90%	27.20%	38.90%	-0.11	+10.8	20
2015-03-08	@ Zadar	L 0-2	52.1	1584	1477	38.90%	27.20%	33.90%	+0.11	-10.8	19
2015-03-09	Rijeka	W 1-0	62.2	1680	1796	32.74%	27.13%	40.13%	-0.17	+5.9	38
2015-03-09	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	62.2	1796	1680	40.13%	27.13%	32.74%	+0.17	-5.9	48
2015-03-13	RNK Split	L 1-2	62.4	1531	1621	36.25%	27.25%	36.50%	-0.01	-5.2	30
2015-03-13	@ NK Zagreb	W 2-1	62.4	1621	1531	36.50%	27.25%	36.25%	+0.01	+5.2	29
2015-03-14	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	71.9	1702	1894	23.95%	25.48%	50.57%	-0.65	+0.8	40
2015-03-14	@ Hajduk Split	D 1-1	71.9	1894	1702	50.57%	25.48%	23.95%	+0.65	-0.8	63
2015-03-14	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 4-0	55.7	1564	1686	31.85%	27.06%	41.09%	-0.21	+21.5	27
2015-03-14	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-4	55.7	1686	1564	41.09%	27.06%	31.85%	+0.21	-21.4	38
2015-03-15	Osijek	W 1-0	53.3	1573	1578	48.11%	26.05%	25.84%	+0.53	+4.2	22
2015-03-15	@ Istra 1961	L 0-1	53.3	1578	1573	25.84%	26.05%	48.11%	-0.53	-4.2	22
2015-03-15	Zadar	W 4-0	41.5	1790	1488	80.92%	11.56%	7.52%	+2.47	+3.7	51
2015-03-15	@ Rijeka	L 0-4	41.5	1488	1790	7.52%	11.56%	80.92%	-2.47	-3.7	20
2015-03-20	Rijeka	D 0-0	66.7	1574	1794	21.41%	24.47%	54.12%	-0.83	+1.1	23
2015-03-20	@ Osijek	D 0-0	66.7	1794	1574	54.12%	24.47%	21.41%	+0.83	-1.1	52
2015-03-21	Istra 1961	W 4-1	48.6	1893	1577	81.96%	10.96%	7.08%	+2.55	+2.2	66
2015-03-21	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-4	48.6	1577	1893	7.08%	10.96%	81.96%	-2.55	-2.2	22
2015-03-21	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	61.7	1626	1665	43.58%	26.80%	29.62%	+0.32	-6.3	29
2015-03-21	@ RNK Split	W 1-0	61.7	1665	1626	29.62%	26.80%	43.58%	-0.32	+6.3	41
2015-03-22	Hajduk Split	W 2-0	59.3	1526	1703	25.48%	25.95%	48.58%	-0.56	+12.9	33
2015-03-22	@ NK Zagreb	L 0-2	59.3	1703	1526	48.58%	25.95%	25.48%	+0.56	-12.9	40
2015-03-22	Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	54.7	1484	1586	34.68%	27.22%	38.10%	-0.08	+5.7	23
2015-03-22	@ Zadar	L 0-1	54.7	1586	1484	38.10%	27.22%	34.68%	+0.08	-5.7	27
2015-04-02	Osijek	W 2-1	58.6	1580	1575	49.41%	25.76%	24.83%	+0.59	+3.8	30
2015-04-02	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	58.6	1575	1580	24.83%	25.76%	49.41%	-0.59	-3.8	23
2015-04-03	NK Zagreb	W 2-1	56.2	1575	1539	53.50%	24.66%	21.84%	+0.79	+3.4	25
2015-04-03	@ Istra 1961	L 1-2	56.2	1539	1575	21.84%	24.66%	53.50%	-0.79	-3.4	33
2015-04-03	Zadar	L 1-5	63.8	1671	1490	70.07%	17.58%	12.35%	+1.70	-27.0	41
2015-04-03	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 5-1	63.8	1490	1671	12.35%	17.58%	70.07%	-1.70	+27.0	26
2015-04-04	Dinamo Zagreb	D 2-2	77.5	1793	1895	34.47%	27.22%	38.31%	-0.09	+0.1	53
2015-04-04	@ Rijeka	D 2-2	77.5	1895	1793	38.31%	27.22%	34.47%	+0.09	-0.1	67
2015-04-04	RNK Split	L 1-2	70.7	1690	1620	57.65%	23.25%	19.09%	+1.00	-7.4	40
2015-04-04	@ Hajduk Split	W 2-1	70.7	1620	1690	19.09%	23.25%	57.65%	-1.00	+7.4	32
2015-04-10	Osijek	D 2-2	75.5	1644	1571	58.01%	23.12%	18.87%	+1.02	-0.9	42
2015-04-10	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	75.5	1571	1644	18.87%	23.12%	58.01%	-1.02	+0.9	24
2015-04-11	Hajduk Split	W 3-2	70.9	1578	1683	34.28%	27.21%	38.51%	-0.10	+5.1	28
2015-04-11	@ Istra 1961	L 2-3	70.9	1683	1578	38.51%	27.21%	34.28%	+0.10	-5.1	40
2015-04-11	Zadar	D 1-1	68.3	1628	1517	62.46%	21.28%	16.26%	+1.26	-1.5	33
2015-04-11	@ RNK Split	D 1-1	68.3	1517	1628	16.26%	21.28%	62.46%	-1.26	+1.5	27
2015-04-12	Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	68.7	1584	1895	14.90%	20.12%	64.98%	-1.41	+1.8	31
2015-04-12	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	68.7	1895	1584	64.98%	20.12%	14.90%	+1.41	-1.8	68
2015-04-12	NK Zagreb	W 4-1	49.1	1793	1536	77.24%	13.66%	9.10%	+2.18	+3.0	56
2015-04-12	@ Rijeka	L 1-4	49.1	1536	1793	9.10%	13.66%	77.24%	-2.18	-3.0	33
2015-04-17	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	60.5	1643	1894	18.95%	23.16%	57.89%	-1.02	-2.9	42
2015-04-17	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	60.5	1894	1643	57.89%	23.16%	18.95%	+1.02	+2.9	71
2015-04-18	Rijeka	L 1-2	65.5	1677	1796	32.37%	27.10%	40.52%	-0.19	-4.7	40
2015-04-18	@ Hajduk Split	W 2-1	65.5	1796	1677	40.52%	27.10%	32.37%	+0.19	+4.7	59
2015-04-18	RNK Split	D 1-1	68.2	1584	1626	43.01%	26.87%	30.12%	+0.29	-0.4	29
2015-04-18	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	68.2	1626	1584	30.12%	26.87%	43.01%	-0.29	+0.4	34
2015-04-19	NK Zagreb	W 2-1	55.7	1585	1532	55.60%	23.99%	20.42%	+0.89	+3.2	34
2015-04-19	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	55.7	1532	1585	20.42%	23.99%	55.60%	-0.89	-3.2	33
2015-04-19	Zadar	W 2-1	54.8	1572	1518	55.73%	23.94%	20.33%	+0.90	+3.1	27
2015-04-19	@ Osijek	L 1-2	54.8	1518	1572	20.33%	23.94%	55.73%	-0.90	-3.1	27
2015-04-24	NK Zagreb	L 1-2	69.0	1640	1529	62.50%	21.26%	16.24%	+1.26	-7.8	42
2015-04-24	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	69.0	1529	1640	16.24%	21.26%	62.50%	-1.26	+7.9	36
2015-04-25	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	50.0	1515	1896	11.35%	16.44%	72.22%	-1.85	-1.7	27
2015-04-25	@ Zadar	W 1-0	50.0	1896	1515	72.22%	16.44%	11.35%	+1.85	+1.7	74
2015-04-25	Osijek	W 3-2	63.4	1626	1576	55.35%	24.07%	20.58%	+0.88	+3.0	37
2015-04-25	@ RNK Split	L 2-3	63.4	1576	1626	20.58%	24.07%	55.35%	-0.88	-3.0	27
2015-04-26	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	56.8	1589	1673	37.11%	27.25%	35.65%	+0.03	-10.5	34
2015-04-26	@ Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	56.8	1673	1589	35.65%	27.25%	37.11%	-0.03	+10.5	43
2015-04-26	Istra 1961	W 3-0	45.2	1801	1583	73.62%	15.68%	10.71%	+1.93	+4.4	62
2015-04-26	@ Rijeka	L 0-3	45.2	1583	1801	10.71%	15.68%	73.62%	-1.93	-4.4	29
2015-04-28	Osijek	W 3-0	43.0	1898	1573	82.68%	10.54%	6.78%	+2.61	+2.5	77
2015-04-28	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	43.0	1573	1898	6.78%	10.54%	82.68%	-2.61	-2.5	27
2015-04-29	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	59.9	1683	1633	55.32%	24.08%	20.60%	+0.88	+3.2	46
2015-04-29	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	59.9	1633	1683	20.60%	24.08%	55.32%	-0.88	-3.2	42
2015-04-29	RNK Split	W 2-0	48.4	1805	1630	69.47%	17.89%	12.64%	+1.67	+3.7	65
2015-04-29	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	48.4	1630	1805	12.64%	17.89%	69.47%	-1.67	-3.7	37
2015-04-29	Zadar	W 3-0	44.7	1537	1513	51.90%	25.13%	22.97%	+0.71	+10.3	39
2015-04-29	@ NK Zagreb	L 0-3	44.7	1513	1537	22.97%	25.13%	51.90%	-0.71	-10.3	27
2015-04-30	Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	73.3	1579	1578	48.90%	25.88%	25.23%	+0.56	-0.5	30
2015-04-30	@ Istra 1961	D 2-2	73.3	1578	1579	25.23%	25.88%	48.90%	-0.56	+0.5	35
2015-05-02	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-5	53.5	1626	1901	17.19%	21.99%	60.81%	-1.17	-8.3	37
2015-05-02	@ RNK Split	W 5-1	53.5	1901	1626	60.81%	21.99%	17.19%	+1.17	+8.3	80
2015-05-02	NK Zagreb	W 1-0	51.2	1570	1547	51.75%	25.17%	23.08%	+0.70	+3.8	30
2015-05-02	@ Osijek	L 0-1	51.2	1547	1570	23.08%	25.17%	51.75%	-0.70	-3.8	39
2015-05-03	Hajduk Split	W 2-0	58.7	1503	1686	24.82%	25.76%	49.43%	-0.60	+13.0	30
2015-05-03	@ Zadar	L 0-2	58.7	1686	1503	49.43%	25.76%	24.82%	+0.60	-13.0	46
2015-05-04	Istra 1961	L 1-2	68.6	1629	1578	55.36%	24.07%	20.57%	+0.88	-7.1	42
2015-05-04	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	68.6	1578	1629	20.57%	24.07%	55.36%	-0.88	+7.1	33
2015-05-04	Rijeka	D 1-1	71.5	1579	1809	20.54%	24.05%	55.41%	-0.89	+1.1	36
2015-05-04	@ Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	71.5	1809	1579	55.41%	24.05%	20.54%	+0.89	-1.1	66
2015-05-08	RNK Split	W 1-0	55.8	1580	1617	43.68%	26.79%	29.53%	+0.32	+4.7	39
2015-05-08	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	55.8	1617	1580	29.53%	26.79%	43.68%	-0.32	-4.7	37
2015-05-09	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	73.9	1544	1909	12.08%	17.28%	70.64%	-1.75	+1.9	40
2015-05-09	@ NK Zagreb	D 1-1	73.9	1909	1544	70.64%	17.28%	12.08%	+1.75	-1.9	81
2015-05-09	Osijek	W 3-2	62.6	1673	1574	61.18%	21.84%	16.98%	+1.19	+2.5	49
2015-05-09	@ Hajduk Split	L 2-3	62.6	1574	1673	16.98%	21.84%	61.18%	-1.19	-2.5	30
2015-05-10	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 5-0	46.4	1808	1622	70.48%	17.36%	12.16%	+1.73	+8.2	69
2015-05-10	@ Rijeka	L 0-5	46.4	1622	1808	12.16%	17.36%	70.48%	-1.73	-8.2	42
2015-05-10	Zadar	D 0-0	61.9	1585	1516	57.58%	23.28%	19.14%	+1.00	-1.3	34
2015-05-10	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	61.9	1516	1585	19.14%	23.28%	57.58%	-1.00	+1.3	31
2015-05-15	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	50.5	1614	1584	52.66%	24.91%	22.43%	+0.75	+6.9	45
2015-05-15	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	50.5	1584	1614	22.43%	24.91%	52.66%	-0.75	-6.9	39
2015-05-16	Hajduk Split	W 4-0	45.2	1907	1676	74.93%	14.96%	10.12%	+2.02	+5.3	84
2015-05-16	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	45.2	1676	1907	10.12%	14.96%	74.93%	-2.02	-5.3	49
2015-05-16	NK Zagreb	L 1-2	67.8	1613	1546	57.35%	23.37%	19.29%	+0.98	-7.3	37
2015-05-16	@ RNK Split	W 2-1	67.8	1546	1613	19.29%	23.37%	57.35%	-0.98	+7.3	43
2015-05-17	Istra 1961	W 1-0	53.7	1571	1584	47.09%	26.25%	26.66%	+0.48	+4.3	33
2015-05-17	@ Osijek	L 0-1	53.7	1584	1571	26.66%	26.25%	47.09%	-0.48	-4.3	34
2015-05-17	Rijeka	L 0-2	49.4	1518	1816	15.70%	20.83%	63.47%	-1.32	-4.8	31
2015-05-17	@ Zadar	W 2-0	49.4	1816	1518	63.47%	20.83%	15.70%	+1.32	+4.8	72
2015-05-22	Zadar	W 2-0	46.1	1577	1513	57.03%	23.48%	19.49%	+0.97	+6.0	42
2015-05-22	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	46.1	1513	1577	19.49%	23.48%	57.03%	-0.97	-6.0	31
2015-05-23	NK Zagreb	W 1-0	50.5	1670	1553	63.24%	20.93%	15.83%	+1.30	+2.6	52
2015-05-23	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	50.5	1553	1670	15.83%	20.93%	63.24%	-1.30	-2.6	43
2015-05-23	Osijek	W 3-0	44.5	1821	1576	76.16%	14.27%	9.57%	+2.10	+3.8	75
2015-05-23	@ Rijeka	L 0-3	44.5	1576	1821	9.57%	14.27%	76.16%	-2.10	-3.8	33
2015-05-24	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	73.5	1580	1913	13.73%	19.01%	67.26%	-1.54	+1.7	35
2015-05-24	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	73.5	1913	1580	67.26%	19.01%	13.73%	+1.54	-1.7	85
2015-05-24	RNK Split	L 0-3	58.1	1621	1605	50.83%	25.41%	23.75%	+0.66	-19.4	45
2015-05-24	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-0	58.1	1605	1621	23.75%	25.41%	50.83%	-0.66	+19.4	40
2015-05-29	Hajduk Split	D 1-1	69.7	1625	1673	42.21%	26.96%	30.83%	+0.26	-0.3	41
2015-05-29	@ RNK Split	D 1-1	69.7	1673	1625	30.83%	26.96%	42.21%	-0.26	+0.3	53
2015-05-29	Rijeka	W 4-0	50.0	1911	1824	59.65%	22.47%	17.88%	+1.11	+10.4	88
2015-05-29	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	50.0	1824	1911	17.88%	22.47%	59.65%	-1.11	-10.4	75
2015-05-30	Istra 1961	W 4-0	49.1	1550	1582	44.59%	26.67%	28.75%	+0.36	+16.3	46
2015-05-30	@ NK Zagreb	L 0-4	49.1	1582	1550	28.75%	26.67%	44.59%	-0.36	-16.3	35
2015-05-30	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	71.5	1507	1602	35.60%	27.24%	37.16%	-0.04	+0.0	32
2015-05-30	@ Zadar	D 2-2	71.5	1602	1507	37.16%	27.24%	35.60%	+0.04	-0.0	46
2015-05-30	Slaven Belupo	W 3-2	64.7	1572	1584	47.23%	26.22%	26.55%	+0.49	+3.8	36
2015-05-30	@ Osijek	L 2-3	64.7	1584	1572	26.55%	26.22%	47.23%	-0.49	-3.8	42

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2015-04-03	12.35%	Zadar	1490	5	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1671	1
2	2014-11-29	13.51%	NK Zagreb	1561	2	@ Hajduk Split	1719	0
3	2015-04-24	16.24%	NK Zagreb	1529	2	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1640	1
4	2014-09-19	16.57%	Zadar	1526	1	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1632	0
5	2015-04-04	19.09%	RNK Split	1620	2	@ Hajduk Split	1690	1
6	2015-05-16	19.29%	NK Zagreb	1546	2	@ RNK Split	1613	1
7	2014-09-20	19.75%	NK Zagreb	1559	2	@ Istra 1961	1620	1
8	2015-05-04	20.57%	Istra 1961	1578	2	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1629	1
9	2015-05-24	23.75%	RNK Split	1605	3	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1621	0
10	2015-05-03	24.82%	@ Zadar	1503	2	Hajduk Split	1686	0
11	2015-03-22	25.48%	@ NK Zagreb	1526	2	Hajduk Split	1703	0
12	2015-03-01	25.51%	Osijek	1559	4	@ NK Zagreb	1557	0
13	2014-12-07	25.61%	Slaven Belupo	1565	3	@ Osijek	1562	2
14	2014-08-17	26.38%	Osijek	1568	2	@ NK Zagreb	1558	1
15	2014-08-24	26.86%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1614	2	Rijeka	1778	1
16	2015-03-21	29.62%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1665	1	@ RNK Split	1626	0
17	2014-07-19	29.72%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1629	4	@ Osijek	1589	1
18	2014-08-24	30.38%	@ Osijek	1574	2	Hajduk Split	1708	0
19	2014-08-30	30.97%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1620	2	@ Slaven Belupo	1571	0
20	2014-08-10	31.85%	Hajduk Split	1686	5	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1629	2
21	2015-03-14	31.85%	@ Slaven Belupo	1564	4	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1686	0
22	2015-03-09	32.74%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1680	1	Rijeka	1796	0
23	2015-02-14	32.80%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1646	6	@ NK Zagreb	1582	0
24	2015-02-21	33.66%	NK Zagreb	1551	1	@ Zadar	1481	0
25	2015-03-08	33.90%	@ Zadar	1477	2	Istra 1961	1584	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2015-02-14	30.80	Lokomotiva Zagreb	6	1646	32.80%	@ NK Zagreb	0	1582	40.06%	27.13%
2	2015-04-03	26.96	Zadar	5	1490	12.35%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1671	70.07%	17.58%
3	2015-03-01	24.41	Osijek	4	1559	25.51%	@ NK Zagreb	0	1557	48.54%	25.96%
4	2015-03-14	21.45	@ Slaven Belupo	4	1564	31.85%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1686	41.09%	27.06%
5	2015-02-14	20.16	@ Osijek	4	1537	34.95%	RNK Split	0	1636	37.82%	27.23%
6	2015-05-24	19.38	RNK Split	3	1605	23.75%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1621	50.83%	25.41%
7	2014-09-14	17.40	@ Zadar	4	1509	41.93%	Slaven Belupo	0	1559	31.09%	26.99%
8	2014-11-29	16.65	NK Zagreb	2	1561	13.51%	@ Hajduk Split	0	1719	67.69%	18.80%
9	2015-05-30	16.34	@ NK Zagreb	4	1550	44.59%	Istra 1961	0	1582	28.75%	26.67%
10	2014-07-19	14.45	Lokomotiva Zagreb	4	1629	29.72%	@ Osijek	1	1589	43.46%	26.82%
11	2014-08-10	14.27	Rijeka	3	1758	38.78%	@ RNK Split	0	1652	34.02%	27.20%
12	2015-05-03	13.05	@ Zadar	2	1503	24.82%	Hajduk Split	0	1686	49.43%	25.76%
13	2015-03-22	12.87	@ NK Zagreb	2	1526	25.48%	Hajduk Split	0	1703	48.58%	25.95%
14	2014-11-09	12.16	@ Rijeka	6	1780	65.60%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1641	14.58%	19.83%
15	2014-08-10	11.99	Hajduk Split	5	1686	31.85%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1629	41.09%	27.06%
16	2014-11-29	11.69	@ Slaven Belupo	4	1554	56.37%	Zadar	0	1494	19.91%	23.72%
17	2014-08-24	11.64	@ Osijek	2	1574	30.38%	Hajduk Split	0	1708	42.71%	26.90%
18	2014-08-30	11.51	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1620	30.97%	@ Slaven Belupo	0	1571	42.06%	26.97%
19	2015-03-08	10.85	@ Zadar	2	1477	33.90%	Istra 1961	0	1584	38.90%	27.20%
20	2014-09-28	10.62	Hajduk Split	2	1692	34.96%	@ Istra 1961	0	1613	37.81%	27.23%
21	2014-12-13	10.60	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1636	35.06%	@ Osijek	0	1556	37.70%	27.24%
22	2015-04-26	10.48	Hajduk Split	2	1673	35.65%	@ Slaven Belupo	0	1589	37.11%	27.25%
23	2015-05-29	10.45	@ Dinamo Zagreb	4	1911	59.65%	Rijeka	0	1824	17.88%	22.47%
24	2014-08-01	10.43	@ NK Zagreb	2	1547	35.84%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1640	36.92%	27.25%
25	2014-11-30	10.43	Dinamo Zagreb	4	1870	59.71%	@ Istra 1961	0	1605	17.84%	22.45%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2015-04-04	77.5	@ Rijeka	2	1793	34.47%	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1895	38.31%	27.22%
2	2014-10-25	77.4	@ Hajduk Split	2	1707	57.98%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1635	18.89%	23.13%
3	2015-03-01	76.9	@ Hajduk Split	2	1698	74.14%	Zadar	2	1476	10.47%	15.39%
4	2014-09-12	75.7	@ RNK Split	2	1637	49.59%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1631	24.69%	25.72%
5	2015-04-10	75.5	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1644	58.01%	Osijek	2	1571	18.87%	23.12%
6	2015-02-06	75.4	@ RNK Split	2	1637	55.35%	Istra 1961	2	1586	20.58%	24.07%
7	2014-08-24	75.3	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1	1853	80.91%	NK Zagreb	1	1551	7.53%	11.57%
8	2014-11-23	75.3	@ RNK Split	2	1641	59.08%	NK Zagreb	2	1560	18.22%	22.70%
9	2014-09-14	75.1	@ NK Zagreb	2	1559	30.42%	Hajduk Split	2	1692	42.67%	26.91%
10	2015-02-28	74.0	@ Rijeka	1	1798	74.75%	Slaven Belupo	1	1569	10.19%	15.05%
11	2015-05-09	73.9	@ NK Zagreb	1	1544	12.08%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1909	70.64%	17.28%
12	2015-05-24	73.5	@ Istra 1961	1	1580	13.73%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1913	67.26%	19.01%
13	2015-02-22	73.4	@ Osijek	1	1557	13.62%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1892	67.47%	18.91%
14	2015-04-30	73.3	@ Istra 1961	2	1579	48.90%	Slaven Belupo	2	1578	25.23%	25.88%
15	2014-10-26	73.0	@ Rijeka	1	1783	65.58%	RNK Split	1	1644	14.59%	19.84%
16	2015-03-14	71.9	@ Hajduk Split	1	1702	23.95%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1894	50.57%	25.48%
17	2015-05-04	71.5	@ Slaven Belupo	1	1579	20.54%	Rijeka	1	1809	55.41%	24.05%
18	2015-05-30	71.5	@ Zadar	2	1507	35.60%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1602	37.16%	27.24%
19	2015-02-22	71.2	@ RNK Split	1	1616	24.90%	Rijeka	1	1799	49.32%	25.78%
20	2014-10-05	71.0	@ Hajduk Split	1	1703	38.21%	Rijeka	1	1779	34.57%	27.22%
21	2014-11-01	71.0	@ Slaven Belupo	1	1545	20.07%	Rijeka	1	1781	56.12%	23.81%
22	2014-07-20	70.9	@ Hajduk Split	1	1686	56.83%	Istra 1961	1	1623	19.62%	23.56%
23	2015-04-11	70.9	@ Istra 1961	3	1578	34.28%	Hajduk Split	2	1683	38.51%	27.21%
24	2014-08-08	70.7	@ Zadar	2	1524	44.33%	NK Zagreb	2	1557	28.97%	26.70%
25	2015-04-04	70.7	RNK Split	2	1620	19.09%	@ Hajduk Split	1	1690	57.65%	23.25%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2015-03-15	41.5	@ Rijeka	4	1790	80.92%	Zadar	0	1488	7.52%	11.56%
2	2014-08-02	42.5	@ Dinamo Zagreb	5	1845	81.99%	Zadar	0	1528	7.07%	10.94%
3	2015-02-16	42.5	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1891	87.90%	Zadar	0	1483	4.63%	7.47%
4	2014-11-29	42.8	@ Slaven Belupo	4	1554	56.37%	Zadar	0	1494	19.91%	23.72%
5	2015-04-28	43.0	@ Dinamo Zagreb	3	1898	82.68%	Osijek	0	1573	6.78%	10.54%
6	2014-10-26	43.3	@ Dinamo Zagreb	5	1869	80.90%	Osijek	0	1567	7.53%	11.57%
7	2015-03-07	43.7	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1893	85.02%	NK Zagreb	0	1533	5.81%	9.17%
8	2014-07-18	44.3	@ Dinamo Zagreb	4	1836	76.35%	Slaven Belupo	0	1589	9.49%	14.16%
9	2015-05-23	44.5	@ Rijeka	3	1821	76.16%	Osijek	0	1576	9.57%	14.27%
10	2015-04-29	44.7	@ NK Zagreb	3	1537	51.90%	Zadar	0	1513	22.97%	25.13%
11	2014-08-16	44.8	@ Hajduk Split	6	1698	69.30%	Zadar	0	1524	12.72%	17.98%
12	2014-10-24	44.8	@ NK Zagreb	3	1552	53.54%	Zadar	0	1516	21.81%	24.65%
13	2014-09-27	45.1	@ Rijeka	3	1775	72.78%	NK Zagreb	0	1566	11.09%	16.13%
14	2015-04-26	45.2	@ Rijeka	3	1801	73.62%	Istra 1961	0	1583	10.71%	15.68%
15	2015-05-16	45.2	@ Dinamo Zagreb	4	1907	74.93%	Hajduk Split	0	1676	10.12%	14.96%
16	2014-10-05	45.4	@ Dinamo Zagreb	3	1861	74.90%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1630	10.13%	14.97%
17	2014-09-29	45.6	@ RNK Split	3	1637	61.47%	Zadar	0	1535	16.81%	21.71%
18	2014-08-16	45.7	@ Rijeka	3	1773	71.04%	Slaven Belupo	0	1582	11.89%	17.06%
19	2014-08-31	45.8	@ Rijeka	6	1771	77.29%	Zadar	1	1514	9.08%	13.64%
20	2015-02-28	46.0	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1890	78.60%	RNK Split	0	1617	8.51%	12.89%
21	2015-05-22	46.1	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1577	57.03%	Zadar	0	1513	19.49%	23.48%
22	2015-05-10	46.4	@ Rijeka	5	1808	70.48%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1622	12.16%	17.36%
23	2014-09-13	47.0	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1855	74.97%	Istra 1961	0	1623	10.10%	14.93%
24	2014-10-19	47.3	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1626	57.11%	NK Zagreb	0	1561	19.44%	23.45%
25	2014-09-14	47.9	@ Zadar	4	1509	41.93%	Slaven Belupo	0	1559	31.09%	26.99%