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2013-14 Prva HNL Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Dinamo Zagreb

84 points · 16th Title

Last Title: 2012-13

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rijeka

14.30 points above expected

73 points · 58.70 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Slaven Belupo

6.51 points below expected

32 points · 38.51 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dinamo Zagreb Champion 36 26 6 4 84 81 26 +55 74.40 +9.60
2 Rijeka 36 21 10 5 73 72 35 +37 58.70 +14.30
3 Hajduk Split 36 17 11 8 62 58 42 +16 63.48 -1.48
4 RNK Split 36 14 10 12 52 41 41 0 52.10 -0.10
5 Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 15 7 14 52 57 59 -2 54.05 -2.05
6 Istra 1961 36 12 8 16 44 45 56 -11 48.59 -4.59
7 Zadar 36 10 5 21 35 35 67 -32 37.68 -2.68
8 Osijek 36 8 9 19 33 38 62 -24 36.82 -3.82
9 Slaven Belupo 36 7 11 18 32 46 65 -19 38.51 -6.51
10 Hrvatski Dragovoljac 36 7 9 20 30 41 61 -20 34.53 -4.53

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rijeka 73 58.70 +14.30
2 Dinamo Zagreb 84 74.40 +9.60
3 RNK Split 52 52.10 -0.10
4 Hajduk Split 62 63.48 -1.48
5 Lokomotiva Zagreb 52 54.05 -2.05

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Slaven Belupo 32 38.51 -6.51
2 Istra 1961 44 48.59 -4.59
3 Hrvatski Dragovoljac 30 34.53 -4.53
4 Osijek 33 36.82 -3.82
5 Zadar 35 37.68 -2.68

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Osijek 3 Mar 30 – Apr 12 1 in 153
2 Zadar 3 Mar 9 – Mar 22 1 in 92
3 Rijeka 6 Mar 1 – Apr 6 1 in 50
4 Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2 Apr 13 – Apr 16 1 in 29
5 Lokomotiva Zagreb 4 Jul 13 – Aug 5 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Istra 1961 6 Mar 16 – Apr 16 1 in 407
2 Slaven Belupo 8 Feb 7 – Mar 31 1 in 208
3 Zadar 8 Mar 28 – May 11 1 in 104
4 Lokomotiva Zagreb 4 Feb 22 – Mar 15 1 in 44
5 Hajduk Split 2 Apr 26 – May 4 1 in 27

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hajduk Split 18 Sep 14 – Mar 16 1 in 200
2 Rijeka 11 Jul 12 – Sep 28 1 in 96
3 RNK Split 8 Oct 5 – Dec 7 1 in 33
4 Osijek 4 Nov 2 – Nov 29 1 in 28
5 Slaven Belupo 5 Sep 28 – Nov 3 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Slaven Belupo 16 Oct 25 – Apr 5 1 in 182
2 Istra 1961 9 Mar 9 – Apr 25 1 in 120
3 Osijek 13 Sep 13 – Feb 8 1 in 37
4 Hrvatski Dragovoljac 14 Sep 20 – Feb 21 1 in 34
5 Hajduk Split 4 Nov 24 – Dec 15 1 in 24

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dinamo Zagreb 1848 84 -1 10 11.6 -1.6
Rijeka 1722 73 +8 10 9.5 +0.5
Hajduk Split 1647 62 -38 4 8.6 -4.6
Lokomotiva Zagreb 1568 52 -9 6 5.3 +0.7
RNK Split 1595 52 -17 5 8.0 -3.0
Istra 1961 1560 44 +11 8 6.8 +1.2
Zadar 1436 35 -21 3 5.1 -2.1
Osijek 1512 33 +29 8 5.3 +2.7
Slaven Belupo 1507 32 +36 7 4.4 +2.6
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1502 30 +3 7 4.9 +2.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DZ HS HD I1 LZ OSI RS RIJ SB ZAD
Dinamo Zagreb —
2-1-1
7.09
3-1-0
9.33
3-0-1
8.31
3-1-0
7.87
3-0-1
9.17
3-0-1
7.99
2-2-0
7.28
4-0-0
9.08
3-1-0
9.10
Hajduk Split
1-1-2
3.97
—
3-0-1
8.54
1-1-2
7.10
3-1-0
6.46
1-2-1
8.43
3-1-0
6.56
0-3-1
6.04
2-1-1
8.18
3-1-0
8.08
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
0-1-3
1.97
1-0-3
2.64
—
1-0-3
3.86
0-0-4
3.58
2-2-0
5.38
1-1-2
3.58
0-0-4
3.06
0-4-0
5.01
2-1-1
5.31
Istra 1961
1-0-3
2.84
2-1-1
3.95
3-0-1
7.19
—
0-0-4
5.02
2-2-0
6.98
2-1-1
4.95
0-1-3
4.59
1-3-0
6.61
1-0-3
7.19
Lokomotiva Zagreb
0-1-3
3.24
0-1-3
4.56
4-0-0
7.49
4-0-0
5.99
—
2-1-1
7.50
0-3-1
5.50
0-1-3
4.58
2-0-2
7.23
3-0-1
7.48
Osijek
1-0-3
2.10
1-2-1
2.73
0-2-2
5.62
0-2-2
4.06
1-1-2
3.58
—
1-1-2
3.67
1-0-3
3.06
2-0-2
5.08
1-1-2
5.37
RNK Split
1-0-3
3.12
0-1-3
4.47
2-1-1
7.49
1-1-2
6.06
1-3-0
5.51
2-1-1
7.39
—
1-2-1
4.63
3-1-0
7.10
3-0-1
7.32
Rijeka
0-2-2
3.77
1-3-0
4.97
4-0-0
8.07
3-1-0
6.42
3-1-0
6.44
3-0-1
8.05
1-2-1
6.38
—
3-1-0
7.85
3-0-1
7.85
Slaven Belupo
0-0-4
2.18
1-1-2
2.95
0-4-0
6.01
0-3-1
4.41
2-0-2
3.81
2-0-2
5.92
0-1-3
3.94
0-1-3
3.26
—
2-1-1
5.87
Zadar
0-1-3
2.16
0-1-3
3.06
1-1-2
5.71
3-0-1
3.86
1-0-3
3.60
2-1-1
5.63
1-0-3
3.73
1-0-3
3.27
1-1-2
5.14
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +11.2
Allowed 0.88 -12.3
Differential 0.96 +6.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%8.06%5.83%3.33%1.39%0.83%24.44%
18.06%11.67%8.06%5.00%1.67%1.39%35.83%
25.83%8.06%5.00%1.67%0.56%—21.11%
33.33%5.00%1.67%2.22%0.28%—12.50%
41.39%1.67%0.56%0.28%——3.89%
5+0.83%1.39%————2.22%
Total24.44%35.83%21.11%12.50%3.89%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.43 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.90
CV 0.87 0.87 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%2.78%———11.11%
116.67%5.56%2.78%———25.00%
22.78%11.11%5.56%2.78%——22.22%
311.11%13.89%————25.00%
42.78%5.56%————8.33%
5+5.56%2.78%————8.33%
Total44.44%41.67%11.11%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.25 0.72 +1.53
SD 1.56 0.78 1.80
CV 0.69 1.08 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%11.11%2.78%2.78%——19.44%
18.33%16.67%——5.56%—30.56%
28.33%11.11%8.33%———27.78%
35.56%8.33%—2.78%——16.67%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total25.00%50.00%13.89%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.17 +0.44
SD 1.23 1.06 1.66
CV 0.76 0.90 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%8.33%13.89%——2.78%27.78%
12.78%13.89%22.22%5.56%2.78%—47.22%
22.78%5.56%5.56%———13.89%
3——2.78%2.78%——5.56%
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%30.56%44.44%8.33%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.69 -0.56
SD 1.07 1.06 1.65
CV 0.94 0.63 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%8.33%8.33%2.78%—2.78%25.00%
113.89%11.11%8.33%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%8.33%2.78%5.56%2.78%—25.00%
3—2.78%—5.56%——8.33%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total25.00%30.56%19.44%19.44%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.56 -0.31
SD 1.02 1.38 1.77
CV 0.82 0.89 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%—5.56%5.56%——13.89%
12.78%13.89%11.11%8.33%—2.78%38.89%
28.33%16.67%2.78%5.56%——33.33%
3—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
4——2.78%2.78%——5.56%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total16.67%33.33%25.00%22.22%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.58 1.64 -0.06
SD 1.16 1.17 1.80
CV 0.73 0.72 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%13.89%5.56%—2.78%2.78%33.33%
12.78%16.67%5.56%13.89%2.78%2.78%44.44%
22.78%5.56%——2.78%—11.11%
3—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%41.67%13.89%13.89%8.33%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.72 -0.67
SD 1.09 1.43 1.90
CV 1.04 0.83 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%8.33%2.78%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%2.78%—41.67%
22.78%11.11%5.56%2.78%——22.22%
32.78%2.78%————5.56%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total36.11%33.33%13.89%13.89%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.14 +0.00
SD 0.99 1.15 1.59
CV 0.87 1.01 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%8.33%2.78%—2.78%—16.67%
18.33%11.11%————19.44%
213.89%2.78%11.11%———27.78%
311.11%5.56%5.56%2.78%——25.00%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total36.11%38.89%19.44%2.78%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.97 +1.03
SD 1.37 0.97 1.73
CV 0.69 1.00 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%8.33%——30.56%
1—8.33%16.67%2.78%2.78%2.78%33.33%
25.56%5.56%8.33%———19.44%
32.78%—2.78%8.33%——13.89%
4———————
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total13.89%27.78%33.33%19.44%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.81 -0.53
SD 1.21 1.26 1.76
CV 0.95 0.70 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%8.33%8.33%8.33%—38.89%
18.33%8.33%8.33%8.33%—5.56%38.89%
25.56%2.78%————8.33%
3—11.11%——2.78%—13.89%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.44%30.56%16.67%16.67%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.86 -0.89
SD 1.03 1.50 1.98
CV 1.06 0.80 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dinamo Zagreb 1848 84 74.40 +9.60 93.0% 52 61 70 74 80 86 89
Rijeka 1722 73 58.70 +14.30 95.0% 43 46 54 58 63 72 81
Hajduk Split 1647 62 63.48 -1.48 46.0% 47 51 59 63 68 77 83
RNK Split 1595 52 52.10 -0.10 47.0% 32 39 46 53 58 64 75
Lokomotiva Zagreb 1568 52 54.05 -2.05 42.0% 39 44 48 55 59 65 78
Istra 1961 1560 44 48.59 -4.59 30.0% 36 37 43 49 53 60 62
Osijek 1512 33 36.82 -3.82 34.0% 17 22 32 36 42 48 66
Slaven Belupo 1507 32 38.51 -6.51 21.0% 22 27 34 38 43 50 56
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1502 30 34.53 -4.53 30.0% 12 24 30 33 39 48 51
Zadar 1436 35 37.68 -2.68 42.0% 24 26 33 38 43 48 54

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 18.5% * Slight Edge: 18.5% to 25.5% * Clear Edge: 25.5% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.22%
No Edge
46.67%23.89%29.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge
176 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
060.44500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.36 goals
Neutral
-2+0.34+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.13 * Tight Race: 0.13 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.46 * Runaway: 0.46 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.5
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
82%
Dinamo Zagreb, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.31/gm
Comfortable
00.270.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.93 * Some Luck: 5.93 to 8.89 * Lucky: 8.89 to 11.85 * Wild Swing: 11.85 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.9 * Close: 0.9 to 1.35 * Off: 1.35 to 1.8 * Way Off: 1.8 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.39 points
Some Luck
07.4119
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.122.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.00%
Rijeka
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
21.00%
Slaven Belupo
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.22 * Lopsided: 0.22 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 67% * Clear Edge: 67% to 71% * Wide Edge: 71% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90% * Clear Edge: 90% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95.5% * Dominant: 95.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 58% * Some Drama: 58% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 64% * Very Frequent: 64% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 16.5% * Frequent: 16.5% to 19.5% * Very Frequent: 19.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 121.59
2.34
Strong Separation
11.852.353.5
Interquartile Edge
67%
Clear Edge
50%65%71%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Clear Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Some Drama
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Lopsided: 0.46 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.79 * Near-Lock: 0.79 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 17% * Very Shaky: 17% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Slight Separation
00.390.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.73
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.84
Near-Lock
00.570.791
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Shaky Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.01
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.16
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.104
Well Within Noise
00.1200.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dinamo Zagreb82.00%15.00%1.00%—2.00%—————
Rijeka5.00%22.00%27.00%21.00%18.00%5.00%2.00%———
Hajduk Split12.00%46.00%23.00%12.00%5.00%2.00%————
RNK Split1.00%7.00%17.00%18.00%22.00%18.00%10.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%
Lokomotiva Zagreb—7.00%25.00%26.00%13.00%19.00%6.00%4.00%——
Istra 1961—3.00%4.00%18.00%25.00%21.00%13.00%12.00%4.00%—
Zadar——1.00%1.00%4.00%4.00%26.00%23.00%16.00%25.00%
Osijek——1.00%2.00%4.00%11.00%18.00%15.00%26.00%23.00%
Slaven Belupo——1.00%2.00%3.00%11.00%19.00%25.00%27.00%12.00%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac————4.00%9.00%6.00%17.00%25.00%39.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Dinamo Zagreb 100% — —
Hajduk Split 100% — —
Istra 1961 96.00% 4.00% —
Lokomotiva Zagreb 100% — —
Rijeka 100% — —
RNK Split 97.00% 2.00% 1.00%
Slaven Belupo 61.00% 27.00% 12.00%
Osijek 51.00% 26.00% 23.00%
Zadar 59.00% 16.00% 25.00%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 36.00% 25.00% 39.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2013-07-12 Istra 1961 W 3-049.7 1589 1598 44.52% 25.07% 30.41%+0.29 +17.3 3
2013-07-12 @ Rijeka L 0-349.7 1598 1589 30.41% 25.07% 44.52%-0.29 -17.3 0
2013-07-12 Osijek W 3-152.6 1740 1543 67.81% 19.53% 12.66%+1.46 +4.5 3
2013-07-12 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-352.6 1543 1740 12.66% 19.53% 67.81%-1.46 -4.5 0
2013-07-13 Hajduk Split L 1-552.9 1523 1631 30.82% 25.11% 44.07%-0.27 -19.0 0
2013-07-13 @ Zadar W 5-152.9 1631 1523 44.07% 25.11% 30.82%+0.27 +19.0 3
2013-07-13 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-250.4 1512 1616 31.39% 25.15% 43.46%-0.25 -12.2 0
2013-07-13 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-050.4 1616 1512 43.46% 25.15% 31.39%+0.25 +12.2 3
2013-07-14 Slaven Belupo W 2-156.3 1614 1533 55.92% 23.36% 20.73%+0.81 +4.3 3
2013-07-14 @ RNK Split L 1-256.3 1533 1614 20.73% 23.36% 55.92%-0.81 -4.3 0
2013-07-19 Zadar W 3-042.9 1744 1504 71.70% 17.82% 10.48%+1.71 +6.1 6
2013-07-19 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-342.9 1504 1744 10.48% 17.82% 71.70%-1.71 -6.1 0
2013-07-20 Hrvatski Dragovoljac D 2-270.0 1529 1500 49.54% 24.53% 25.93%+0.51 -0.7 1
2013-07-20 @ Slaven Belupo D 2-270.0 1500 1529 25.93% 24.53% 49.54%-0.51 +0.7 1
2013-07-20 RNK Split D 1-168.9 1580 1618 40.52% 25.29% 34.19%+0.13 -0.2 1
2013-07-20 @ Istra 1961 D 1-168.9 1618 1580 34.19% 25.29% 40.52%-0.13 +0.2 4
2013-07-21 Rijeka D 1-170.4 1650 1606 51.48% 24.23% 24.28%+0.60 -1.1 4
2013-07-21 @ Hajduk Split D 1-170.4 1606 1650 24.28% 24.23% 51.48%-0.60 +1.1 4
2013-07-22 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-261.2 1539 1628 33.32% 25.26% 41.42%-0.16 -6.4 0
2013-07-22 @ Osijek W 2-161.2 1628 1539 41.42% 25.26% 33.32%+0.16 +6.4 6
2013-07-26 Istra 1961 L 0-153.2 1500 1580 34.60% 25.31% 40.09%-0.11 -7.0 1
2013-07-26 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 1-053.2 1580 1500 40.09% 25.31% 34.60%+0.11 +7.0 4
2013-07-27 Osijek W 3-153.9 1498 1532 40.98% 25.28% 33.74%+0.15 +11.2 3
2013-07-27 @ Zadar L 1-353.9 1532 1498 33.74% 25.28% 40.98%-0.15 -11.2 0
2013-07-28 Dinamo Zagreb D 0-067.0 1607 1750 26.65% 24.64% 48.71%-0.47 +1.0 5
2013-07-28 @ Rijeka D 0-067.0 1750 1607 48.71% 24.64% 26.65%+0.47 -1.0 7
2013-07-28 Hajduk Split L 0-354.7 1619 1649 41.60% 25.25% 33.15%+0.17 -22.0 4
2013-07-28 @ RNK Split W 3-054.7 1649 1619 33.15% 25.25% 41.60%-0.17 +22.0 7
2013-07-29 Slaven Belupo W 1-050.1 1634 1528 58.76% 22.64% 18.60%+0.95 +4.1 9
2013-07-29 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-150.1 1528 1634 18.60% 22.64% 58.76%-0.95 -4.1 1
2013-08-02 Slaven Belupo W 2-156.1 1521 1524 45.41% 25.00% 29.59%+0.33 +5.8 3
2013-08-02 @ Osijek L 1-256.1 1524 1521 29.59% 25.00% 45.41%-0.33 -5.8 1
2013-08-03 RNK Split W 1-051.9 1749 1597 63.59% 21.14% 15.27%+1.21 +3.4 10
2013-08-03 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-151.9 1597 1749 15.27% 21.14% 63.59%-1.21 -3.4 4
2013-08-04 Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-153.7 1671 1493 66.06% 20.23% 13.71%+1.35 +2.8 10
2013-08-04 @ Hajduk Split L 1-253.7 1493 1671 13.71% 20.23% 66.06%-1.35 -2.8 1
2013-08-04 Rijeka L 1-259.3 1509 1608 32.01% 25.19% 42.80%-0.22 -6.2 3
2013-08-04 @ Zadar W 2-159.3 1608 1509 42.80% 25.19% 32.01%+0.22 +6.2 8
2013-08-05 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-264.1 1587 1639 38.62% 25.34% 36.04%+0.05 -7.2 4
2013-08-05 @ Istra 1961 W 2-164.1 1639 1587 36.04% 25.34% 38.62%-0.05 +7.2 12
2013-08-09 Zadar L 1-362.6 1593 1503 56.99% 23.10% 19.91%+0.86 -17.0 4
2013-08-09 @ RNK Split W 3-162.6 1503 1593 19.91% 23.10% 56.99%-0.86 +17.0 6
2013-08-10 Dinamo Zagreb D 1-171.0 1491 1753 16.03% 21.53% 62.44%-1.15 +2.0 2
2013-08-10 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac D 1-171.0 1753 1491 62.44% 21.53% 16.03%+1.15 -2.0 11
2013-08-10 Istra 1961 D 2-272.2 1518 1580 37.09% 25.35% 37.56%-0.01 +0.0 2
2013-08-10 @ Slaven Belupo D 2-272.2 1580 1518 37.56% 25.35% 37.09%+0.01 -0.0 5
2013-08-12 Osijek W 5-148.8 1614 1527 56.59% 23.20% 20.21%+0.84 +13.2 11
2013-08-12 @ Rijeka L 1-548.8 1527 1614 20.21% 23.20% 56.59%-0.84 -13.2 3
2013-08-17 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-159.5 1751 1646 58.58% 22.69% 18.73%+0.94 +3.9 14
2013-08-17 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-259.5 1646 1751 18.73% 22.69% 58.58%-0.94 -3.9 12
2013-08-17 RNK Split D 1-169.4 1627 1576 52.32% 24.09% 23.59%+0.63 -1.2 12
2013-08-17 @ Rijeka D 1-169.4 1576 1627 23.59% 24.09% 52.32%-0.63 +1.2 5
2013-08-18 Hrvatski Dragovoljac D 1-163.3 1520 1493 49.31% 24.56% 26.13%+0.50 -0.9 7
2013-08-18 @ Zadar D 1-163.3 1493 1520 26.13% 24.56% 49.31%-0.50 +1.0 3
2013-08-18 Istra 1961 L 1-357.0 1514 1580 36.50% 25.34% 38.15%-0.03 -11.9 3
2013-08-18 @ Osijek W 3-157.0 1580 1514 38.15% 25.34% 36.50%+0.03 +11.9 8
2013-08-18 Slaven Belupo W 1-049.3 1674 1518 63.93% 21.02% 15.05%+1.23 +3.3 13
2013-08-18 @ Hajduk Split L 0-149.3 1518 1674 15.05% 21.02% 63.93%-1.23 -3.3 2
2013-08-23 Zadar W 2-046.2 1642 1519 60.55% 22.13% 17.32%+1.04 +7.2 15
2013-08-23 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-246.2 1519 1642 17.32% 22.13% 60.55%-1.04 -7.2 7
2013-08-24 Dinamo Zagreb L 1-354.7 1515 1755 17.63% 22.26% 60.11%-1.02 -6.3 2
2013-08-24 @ Slaven Belupo W 3-154.7 1755 1515 60.11% 22.26% 17.63%+1.02 +6.3 17
2013-08-24 Hajduk Split W 1-059.8 1592 1677 33.84% 25.28% 40.88%-0.14 +7.9 11
2013-08-24 @ Istra 1961 L 0-159.8 1677 1592 40.88% 25.28% 33.84%+0.14 -7.9 13
2013-08-25 Osijek W 4-043.1 1577 1502 55.25% 23.51% 21.25%+0.77 +16.6 8
2013-08-25 @ RNK Split L 0-443.1 1502 1577 21.25% 23.51% 55.25%-0.77 -16.6 3
2013-08-25 Rijeka L 0-249.0 1493 1626 27.86% 24.81% 47.33%-0.41 -11.1 3
2013-08-25 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-049.0 1626 1493 47.33% 24.81% 27.86%+0.41 +11.1 15
2013-08-28 Hajduk Split L 1-363.9 1649 1669 43.00% 25.18% 31.82%+0.23 -13.5 15
2013-08-28 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-163.9 1669 1649 31.82% 25.18% 43.00%-0.23 +13.5 16
2013-08-30 Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 1-047.3 1594 1482 59.32% 22.49% 18.19%+0.98 +4.0 11
2013-08-30 @ RNK Split L 0-147.3 1482 1594 18.19% 22.49% 59.32%-0.98 -4.0 3
2013-08-31 Hajduk Split W 1-061.6 1485 1683 21.15% 23.48% 55.37%-0.78 +10.2 6
2013-08-31 @ Osijek L 0-161.6 1683 1485 55.37% 23.48% 21.15%+0.78 -10.2 16
2013-08-31 Istra 1961 W 3-154.5 1761 1600 64.44% 20.84% 14.72%+1.26 +5.3 20
2013-08-31 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-354.5 1600 1761 14.72% 20.84% 64.44%-1.26 -5.3 11
2013-08-31 Slaven Belupo L 0-251.1 1511 1508 46.19% 24.93% 28.89%+0.36 -16.5 7
2013-08-31 @ Zadar W 2-051.1 1508 1511 28.89% 24.93% 46.19%-0.36 +16.5 5
2013-09-02 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-170.4 1637 1636 45.99% 24.95% 29.06%+0.35 -0.7 16
2013-09-02 @ Rijeka D 1-170.4 1636 1637 29.06% 24.95% 45.99%-0.35 +0.7 16
2013-09-13 Osijek W 1-048.3 1478 1495 43.44% 25.15% 31.41%+0.25 +6.5 6
2013-09-13 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac L 0-148.3 1495 1478 31.41% 25.15% 43.44%-0.25 -6.5 6
2013-09-14 Dinamo Zagreb W 2-058.5 1673 1766 32.75% 25.23% 42.02%-0.19 +15.3 19
2013-09-14 @ Hajduk Split L 0-258.5 1766 1673 42.02% 25.23% 32.75%+0.19 -15.3 20
2013-09-14 Zadar L 0-159.8 1595 1495 57.98% 22.85% 19.17%+0.91 -10.6 11
2013-09-14 @ Istra 1961 W 1-059.8 1495 1595 19.17% 22.85% 57.98%-0.91 +10.6 10
2013-09-15 Rijeka L 0-154.4 1525 1637 30.39% 25.07% 44.54%-0.29 -6.3 5
2013-09-15 @ Slaven Belupo W 1-054.4 1637 1525 44.54% 25.07% 30.39%+0.29 +6.3 19
2013-09-15 RNK Split D 1-169.9 1636 1598 50.71% 24.36% 24.94%+0.56 -1.0 17
2013-09-15 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-169.9 1598 1636 24.94% 24.36% 50.71%-0.56 +1.1 12
2013-09-20 Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-153.3 1635 1485 63.36% 21.22% 15.42%+1.20 +3.2 20
2013-09-20 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-253.3 1485 1635 15.42% 21.22% 63.36%-1.20 -3.2 6
2013-09-21 RNK Split L 1-260.1 1518 1599 34.48% 25.30% 40.22%-0.12 -6.6 5
2013-09-21 @ Slaven Belupo W 2-160.1 1599 1518 40.22% 25.30% 34.48%+0.12 +6.6 15
2013-09-21 Zadar W 1-048.6 1688 1506 66.49% 20.06% 13.45%+1.38 +2.9 22
2013-09-21 @ Hajduk Split L 0-148.6 1506 1688 13.45% 20.06% 66.49%-1.38 -2.9 10
2013-09-22 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-150.8 1489 1751 16.04% 21.54% 62.42%-1.14 -3.5 6
2013-09-22 @ Osijek W 1-050.8 1751 1489 62.42% 21.54% 16.04%+1.14 +3.5 23
2013-09-22 Rijeka L 2-369.3 1584 1643 37.53% 25.35% 37.12%+0.01 -6.7 11
2013-09-22 @ Istra 1961 W 3-269.3 1643 1584 37.12% 25.35% 37.53%-0.01 +6.6 22
2013-09-28 Hajduk Split D 1-171.2 1650 1691 40.07% 25.31% 34.62%+0.11 -0.2 23
2013-09-28 @ Rijeka D 1-171.2 1691 1650 34.62% 25.31% 40.07%-0.11 +0.2 23
2013-09-28 Osijek W 5-042.7 1638 1485 63.63% 21.13% 15.25%+1.21 +14.8 23
2013-09-28 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-542.7 1485 1638 15.25% 21.13% 63.63%-1.21 -14.8 6
2013-09-28 Slaven Belupo D 0-057.8 1482 1512 41.62% 25.25% 33.13%+0.17 -0.4 7
2013-09-28 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac D 0-057.8 1512 1482 33.13% 25.25% 41.62%-0.17 +0.4 6
2013-09-29 Dinamo Zagreb D 0-066.6 1503 1754 16.76% 21.88% 61.37%-1.09 +2.1 11
2013-09-29 @ Zadar D 0-066.6 1754 1503 61.37% 21.88% 16.76%+1.09 -2.1 24
2013-09-29 Istra 1961 L 0-160.5 1606 1577 49.48% 24.54% 25.98%+0.50 -9.3 15
2013-09-29 @ RNK Split W 1-060.5 1577 1606 25.98% 24.54% 49.48%-0.50 +9.3 14
2013-10-04 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-270.9 1512 1653 26.92% 24.68% 48.40%-0.46 +8.1 9
2013-10-04 @ Slaven Belupo L 2-370.9 1653 1512 48.40% 24.68% 26.92%+0.46 -8.1 23
2013-10-05 RNK Split D 0-066.7 1691 1596 57.42% 22.99% 19.58%+0.88 -1.8 24
2013-10-05 @ Hajduk Split D 0-066.7 1596 1691 19.58% 22.99% 57.42%-0.88 +1.8 16
2013-10-05 Zadar D 0-057.2 1471 1505 41.07% 25.27% 33.66%+0.15 -0.3 7
2013-10-05 @ Osijek D 0-057.2 1505 1471 33.66% 25.27% 41.07%-0.15 +0.3 12
2013-10-06 Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-153.0 1587 1481 58.61% 22.68% 18.71%+0.94 +3.9 17
2013-10-06 @ Istra 1961 L 1-253.0 1481 1587 18.71% 22.68% 58.61%-0.94 -3.9 7
2013-10-06 Rijeka W 1-053.9 1752 1649 58.35% 22.75% 18.90%+0.93 +4.2 27
2013-10-06 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-153.9 1649 1752 18.90% 22.75% 58.35%-0.93 -4.2 23
2013-10-19 Dinamo Zagreb W 1-063.5 1598 1756 25.02% 24.37% 50.60%-0.56 +9.4 19
2013-10-19 @ RNK Split L 0-163.5 1756 1598 50.60% 24.37% 25.02%+0.56 -9.4 27
2013-10-19 Istra 1961 W 2-159.3 1645 1590 52.74% 24.01% 23.24%+0.65 +4.8 26
2013-10-19 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-259.3 1590 1645 23.24% 24.01% 52.74%-0.65 -4.8 17
2013-10-19 Zadar W 3-043.5 1645 1505 62.33% 21.57% 16.11%+1.14 +9.7 26
2013-10-19 @ Rijeka L 0-343.5 1505 1645 16.11% 21.57% 62.33%-1.14 -9.7 12
2013-10-20 Hajduk Split L 1-256.5 1477 1689 19.89% 23.09% 57.02%-0.86 -4.1 7
2013-10-20 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-156.5 1689 1477 57.02% 23.09% 19.89%+0.86 +4.1 27
2013-10-20 Osijek W 2-043.0 1520 1470 52.19% 24.11% 23.70%+0.63 +9.7 12
2013-10-20 @ Slaven Belupo L 0-243.0 1470 1520 23.70% 24.11% 52.19%-0.63 -9.7 7
2013-10-25 Slaven Belupo D 1-167.1 1586 1530 52.87% 23.99% 23.14%+0.66 -1.2 18
2013-10-25 @ Istra 1961 D 1-167.1 1530 1586 23.14% 23.99% 52.87%-0.66 +1.2 13
2013-10-26 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-158.2 1693 1650 51.39% 24.25% 24.36%+0.59 +8.6 30
2013-10-26 @ Hajduk Split L 1-358.2 1650 1693 24.36% 24.25% 51.39%-0.59 -8.6 26
2013-10-26 RNK Split L 0-152.6 1495 1608 30.33% 25.07% 44.60%-0.29 -6.3 12
2013-10-26 @ Zadar W 1-052.6 1608 1495 44.60% 25.07% 30.33%+0.29 +6.3 22
2013-10-27 Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 4-146.9 1747 1473 74.42% 16.51% 9.07%+1.90 +4.3 30
2013-10-27 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-446.9 1473 1747 9.07% 16.51% 74.42%-1.90 -4.4 7
2013-10-27 Rijeka L 1-352.7 1461 1655 21.45% 23.56% 54.99%-0.76 -7.7 7
2013-10-27 @ Osijek W 3-152.7 1655 1461 54.99% 23.56% 21.45%+0.76 +7.6 29
2013-11-02 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-352.8 1641 1751 30.60% 25.09% 44.31%-0.28 -17.4 26
2013-11-02 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-052.8 1751 1641 44.31% 25.09% 30.60%+0.28 +17.4 33
2013-11-02 Osijek D 1-165.0 1584 1453 61.42% 21.86% 16.72%+1.09 -1.9 19
2013-11-02 @ Istra 1961 D 1-165.0 1453 1584 16.72% 21.86% 61.42%-1.09 +1.9 8
2013-11-03 Hajduk Split D 3-380.2 1531 1702 23.73% 24.12% 52.16%-0.63 +0.7 14
2013-11-03 @ Slaven Belupo D 3-380.2 1702 1531 52.16% 24.12% 23.73%+0.63 -0.7 31
2013-11-03 Rijeka W 1-058.4 1614 1663 39.02% 25.33% 35.65%+0.07 +7.2 25
2013-11-03 @ RNK Split L 0-158.4 1663 1614 35.65% 25.33% 39.02%-0.07 -7.1 29
2013-11-04 Zadar L 0-247.9 1469 1489 43.02% 25.18% 31.81%+0.23 -15.6 7
2013-11-04 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-047.9 1489 1469 31.81% 25.18% 43.02%-0.23 +15.6 15
2013-11-08 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-249.8 1505 1624 29.49% 24.99% 45.52%-0.33 -11.6 15
2013-11-08 @ Zadar W 2-049.8 1624 1505 45.52% 24.99% 29.49%+0.33 +11.6 29
2013-11-09 Istra 1961 W 2-048.8 1701 1583 60.08% 22.27% 17.66%+1.02 +7.3 34
2013-11-09 @ Hajduk Split L 0-248.8 1583 1701 17.66% 22.27% 60.08%-1.02 -7.3 19
2013-11-09 RNK Split D 0-061.2 1455 1621 24.18% 24.21% 51.61%-0.60 +1.3 9
2013-11-09 @ Osijek D 0-061.2 1621 1455 51.61% 24.21% 24.18%+0.60 -1.3 26
2013-11-10 Slaven Belupo W 1-049.0 1769 1532 71.38% 17.97% 10.65%+1.69 +2.3 36
2013-11-10 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-149.0 1532 1769 10.65% 17.97% 71.38%-1.69 -2.3 14
2013-11-22 Zadar D 1-163.7 1530 1493 50.53% 24.39% 25.09%+0.55 -1.0 15
2013-11-22 @ Slaven Belupo D 1-163.7 1493 1530 25.09% 24.39% 50.53%-0.55 +1.0 16
2013-11-24 Osijek D 1-170.5 1709 1456 72.69% 17.35% 9.95%+1.78 -2.7 35
2013-11-24 @ Hajduk Split D 1-170.5 1456 1709 9.95% 17.35% 72.69%-1.78 +2.7 10
2013-11-24 RNK Split D 2-271.7 1453 1620 24.15% 24.21% 51.65%-0.60 +0.8 8
2013-11-24 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac D 2-271.7 1620 1453 51.65% 24.21% 24.15%+0.60 -0.9 27
2013-11-29 Hrvatski Dragovoljac D 1-159.6 1459 1454 46.39% 24.91% 28.70%+0.37 -0.7 11
2013-11-29 @ Osijek D 1-159.6 1454 1459 28.70% 24.91% 46.39%-0.37 +0.7 9
2013-11-30 Istra 1961 L 0-447.3 1494 1575 34.42% 25.30% 40.28%-0.12 -24.9 16
2013-11-30 @ Zadar W 4-047.3 1575 1494 40.28% 25.30% 34.42%+0.12 +24.9 22
2013-11-30 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-051.4 1619 1635 43.54% 25.14% 31.32%+0.25 +17.7 30
2013-11-30 @ RNK Split L 0-351.4 1635 1619 31.32% 25.14% 43.54%-0.25 -17.7 29
2013-12-01 Hajduk Split D 2-278.6 1771 1706 54.02% 23.77% 22.21%+0.71 -1.0 37
2013-12-01 @ Dinamo Zagreb D 2-278.6 1706 1771 22.21% 23.77% 54.02%-0.71 +1.0 36
2013-12-01 Slaven Belupo D 2-275.7 1655 1529 60.93% 22.01% 17.06%+1.06 -1.4 30
2013-12-01 @ Rijeka D 2-275.7 1529 1655 17.06% 22.01% 60.93%-1.06 +1.4 16
2013-12-04 Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-042.5 1654 1455 68.06% 19.43% 12.51%+1.47 +5.1 33
2013-12-04 @ Rijeka L 0-242.5 1455 1654 12.51% 19.43% 68.06%-1.47 -5.1 9
2013-12-07 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-352.0 1450 1618 24.01% 24.18% 51.82%-0.61 -8.5 9
2013-12-07 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 3-152.0 1618 1450 51.82% 24.18% 24.01%+0.61 +8.5 32
2013-12-07 Slaven Belupo D 0-064.4 1637 1530 58.77% 22.64% 18.59%+0.95 -1.9 31
2013-12-07 @ RNK Split D 0-064.4 1530 1637 18.59% 22.64% 58.77%-0.95 +1.9 17
2013-12-08 Istra 1961 D 3-380.7 1659 1600 53.29% 23.91% 22.80%+0.68 -0.8 34
2013-12-08 @ Rijeka D 3-380.7 1600 1659 22.80% 23.91% 53.29%-0.68 +0.8 23
2013-12-08 Osijek W 4-146.2 1770 1458 77.31% 15.01% 7.68%+2.11 +3.6 40
2013-12-08 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-446.2 1458 1770 7.68% 15.01% 77.31%-2.11 -3.6 11
2013-12-09 Hajduk Split D 1-169.3 1469 1707 17.80% 22.33% 59.87%-1.01 +1.8 17
2013-12-09 @ Zadar D 1-169.3 1707 1469 59.87% 22.33% 17.80%+1.01 -1.8 37
2013-12-13 Hrvatski Dragovoljac D 1-162.3 1532 1441 56.98% 23.10% 19.91%+0.86 -1.6 18
2013-12-13 @ Slaven Belupo D 1-162.3 1441 1532 19.91% 23.10% 56.98%-0.86 +1.6 10
2013-12-14 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-165.9 1455 1626 23.64% 24.10% 52.26%-0.63 +1.2 12
2013-12-14 @ Osijek D 1-165.9 1626 1455 52.26% 24.10% 23.64%+0.63 -1.2 33
2013-12-14 RNK Split W 2-053.8 1601 1635 41.09% 25.27% 33.64%+0.15 +12.9 26
2013-12-14 @ Istra 1961 L 0-253.8 1635 1601 33.64% 25.27% 41.09%-0.15 -12.9 31
2013-12-15 Rijeka D 2-277.8 1705 1658 51.77% 24.19% 24.05%+0.61 -0.8 38
2013-12-15 @ Hajduk Split D 2-277.8 1658 1705 24.05% 24.19% 51.77%-0.61 +0.8 35
2013-12-15 Zadar W 3-149.3 1774 1471 76.64% 15.37% 8.00%+2.06 +2.7 43
2013-12-15 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-349.3 1471 1774 8.00% 15.37% 76.64%-2.06 -2.7 17
2013-12-19 Rijeka L 0-256.8 1625 1659 41.05% 25.27% 33.67%+0.15 -15.0 33
2013-12-19 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-056.8 1659 1625 33.67% 25.27% 41.05%-0.15 +15.0 38
2014-02-06 Dinamo Zagreb L 1-358.7 1614 1776 24.57% 24.29% 51.15%-0.58 -8.6 26
2014-02-06 @ Istra 1961 W 3-158.7 1776 1614 51.15% 24.29% 24.57%+0.58 +8.6 46
2014-02-07 Slaven Belupo W 2-156.2 1610 1530 55.71% 23.40% 20.89%+0.80 +4.3 36
2014-02-07 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-256.2 1530 1610 20.89% 23.40% 55.71%-0.80 -4.3 18
2014-02-08 Hajduk Split L 1-264.3 1622 1704 34.27% 25.30% 40.43%-0.12 -6.5 31
2014-02-08 @ RNK Split W 2-164.3 1704 1622 40.43% 25.30% 34.27%+0.12 +6.5 41
2014-02-08 Osijek W 3-148.1 1468 1456 47.41% 24.80% 27.79%+0.41 +9.6 20
2014-02-08 @ Zadar L 1-348.1 1456 1468 27.79% 24.80% 47.41%-0.41 -9.6 12
2014-02-09 Istra 1961 L 1-254.5 1443 1605 24.59% 24.29% 51.11%-0.58 -5.0 10
2014-02-09 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-154.5 1605 1443 51.11% 24.29% 24.59%+0.58 +5.0 29
2014-02-14 Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-150.8 1711 1438 74.34% 16.55% 9.11%+1.89 +1.8 44
2014-02-14 @ Hajduk Split L 1-250.8 1438 1711 9.11% 16.55% 74.34%-1.89 -1.8 10
2014-02-15 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 2-467.1 1610 1614 45.20% 25.02% 29.78%+0.32 -12.6 29
2014-02-15 @ Istra 1961 W 4-267.1 1614 1610 29.78% 25.02% 45.20%-0.32 +12.5 39
2014-02-15 RNK Split W 2-157.5 1785 1615 65.26% 20.54% 14.20%+1.31 +2.9 49
2014-02-15 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-257.5 1615 1785 14.20% 20.54% 65.26%-1.31 -2.9 31
2014-02-16 Rijeka W 1-061.1 1478 1674 21.26% 23.51% 55.23%-0.77 +10.2 23
2014-02-16 @ Zadar L 0-161.1 1674 1478 55.23% 23.51% 21.26%+0.77 -10.2 38
2014-02-16 Slaven Belupo W 4-151.1 1446 1526 34.59% 25.31% 40.10%-0.11 +18.0 15
2014-02-16 @ Osijek L 1-451.1 1526 1446 40.10% 25.31% 34.59%+0.11 -18.0 18
2014-02-21 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-147.9 1436 1788 10.92% 18.20% 70.88%-1.65 -2.3 10
2014-02-21 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 1-047.9 1788 1436 70.88% 18.20% 10.92%+1.65 +2.3 52
2014-02-22 Hajduk Split L 0-255.3 1627 1712 33.81% 25.28% 40.91%-0.14 -12.9 39
2014-02-22 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-055.3 1712 1627 40.91% 25.28% 33.81%+0.14 +13.0 47
2014-02-22 Istra 1961 L 0-250.3 1508 1598 33.28% 25.26% 41.46%-0.17 -12.8 18
2014-02-22 @ Slaven Belupo W 2-050.3 1598 1508 41.46% 25.26% 33.28%+0.17 +12.8 32
2014-02-23 Osijek W 1-046.4 1664 1464 68.12% 19.41% 12.48%+1.48 +2.7 41
2014-02-23 @ Rijeka L 0-146.4 1464 1664 12.48% 19.41% 68.12%-1.48 -2.7 15
2014-02-23 Zadar W 3-150.5 1612 1488 60.69% 22.09% 17.23%+1.05 +6.2 34
2014-02-23 @ RNK Split L 1-350.5 1488 1612 17.23% 22.09% 60.69%-1.05 -6.2 23
2014-02-26 Dinamo Zagreb D 2-278.2 1667 1790 28.97% 24.94% 46.09%-0.36 +0.5 42
2014-02-26 @ Rijeka D 2-278.2 1790 1667 46.09% 24.94% 28.97%+0.36 -0.5 53
2014-02-28 Hrvatski Dragovoljac L 0-446.6 1482 1434 51.94% 24.15% 23.90%+0.62 -34.5 23
2014-02-28 @ Zadar W 4-046.6 1434 1482 23.90% 24.15% 51.94%-0.62 +34.5 13
2014-03-01 Istra 1961 L 0-150.2 1462 1610 26.04% 24.55% 49.41%-0.50 -5.6 15
2014-03-01 @ Osijek W 1-050.2 1610 1462 49.41% 24.55% 26.04%+0.50 +5.6 35
2014-03-01 RNK Split W 4-154.8 1667 1619 52.01% 24.14% 23.85%+0.62 +11.9 45
2014-03-01 @ Rijeka L 1-454.8 1619 1667 23.85% 24.14% 52.01%-0.62 -11.9 34
2014-03-02 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-157.4 1790 1614 65.87% 20.31% 13.83%+1.34 +2.8 56
2014-03-02 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-257.4 1614 1790 13.83% 20.31% 65.87%-1.34 -2.9 39
2014-03-02 Slaven Belupo W 3-042.6 1725 1495 70.82% 18.23% 10.95%+1.65 +6.4 50
2014-03-02 @ Hajduk Split L 0-342.6 1495 1725 10.95% 18.23% 70.82%-1.65 -6.4 18
2014-03-07 Rijeka L 0-247.0 1468 1679 19.97% 23.12% 56.91%-0.85 -8.3 13
2014-03-07 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-047.0 1679 1468 56.91% 23.12% 19.97%+0.85 +8.3 48
2014-03-08 Dinamo Zagreb L 1-648.1 1489 1793 13.42% 20.05% 66.53%-1.38 -10.7 18
2014-03-08 @ Slaven Belupo W 6-148.1 1793 1489 66.53% 20.05% 13.42%+1.38 +10.7 59
2014-03-08 Osijek W 1-045.6 1607 1456 63.41% 21.20% 15.39%+1.20 +3.4 37
2014-03-08 @ RNK Split L 0-145.6 1456 1607 15.39% 21.20% 63.41%-1.20 -3.4 15
2014-03-09 Hajduk Split D 1-171.3 1616 1732 29.89% 25.03% 45.09%-0.32 +0.6 36
2014-03-09 @ Istra 1961 D 1-171.3 1732 1616 45.09% 25.03% 29.89%+0.32 -0.6 51
2014-03-09 Zadar L 1-362.9 1611 1447 64.69% 20.75% 14.56%+1.27 -19.0 39
2014-03-09 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-162.9 1447 1611 14.56% 20.75% 64.69%-1.27 +19.0 26
2014-03-14 Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-151.6 1610 1460 63.35% 21.22% 15.43%+1.20 +3.2 40
2014-03-14 @ RNK Split L 1-251.6 1460 1610 15.43% 21.22% 63.35%-1.20 -3.2 13
2014-03-15 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-264.0 1687 1592 57.52% 22.97% 19.51%+0.89 +3.8 51
2014-03-15 @ Rijeka L 2-364.0 1592 1687 19.51% 22.97% 57.52%-0.89 -3.8 39
2014-03-15 Slaven Belupo W 2-152.8 1466 1478 44.15% 25.10% 30.75%+0.28 +6.0 29
2014-03-15 @ Zadar L 1-252.8 1478 1466 30.75% 25.10% 44.15%-0.28 -6.0 18
2014-03-16 Hajduk Split D 1-169.9 1453 1731 14.94% 20.96% 64.11%-1.24 +2.1 16
2014-03-16 @ Osijek D 1-169.9 1731 1453 64.11% 20.96% 14.94%+1.24 -2.1 52
2014-03-16 Istra 1961 W 6-047.4 1803 1617 66.90% 19.90% 13.20%+1.40 +15.1 62
2014-03-16 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-647.4 1617 1803 13.20% 19.90% 66.90%-1.40 -15.1 36
2014-03-21 RNK Split D 0-064.5 1588 1613 42.33% 25.22% 32.46%+0.20 -0.4 40
2014-03-21 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 0-064.5 1613 1588 32.46% 25.22% 42.33%-0.20 +0.4 41
2014-03-22 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-256.3 1729 1818 33.33% 25.26% 41.41%-0.16 -12.8 52
2014-03-22 @ Hajduk Split W 2-056.3 1818 1729 41.41% 25.26% 33.33%+0.16 +12.8 65
2014-03-22 Zadar L 0-256.6 1601 1472 61.19% 21.93% 16.88%+1.08 -20.9 36
2014-03-22 @ Istra 1961 W 2-056.6 1472 1601 16.88% 21.93% 61.19%-1.08 +20.9 32
2014-03-23 Osijek W 2-042.0 1457 1455 46.03% 24.94% 29.03%+0.35 +11.5 16
2014-03-23 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac L 0-242.0 1455 1457 29.03% 24.94% 46.03%-0.35 -11.5 16
2014-03-23 Rijeka L 0-345.2 1472 1691 19.28% 22.89% 57.84%-0.90 -11.6 18
2014-03-23 @ Slaven Belupo W 3-045.2 1691 1472 57.84% 22.89% 19.28%+0.90 +11.6 54
2014-03-28 Zadar W 3-150.6 1716 1493 70.20% 18.51% 11.29%+1.61 +4.0 55
2014-03-28 @ Hajduk Split L 1-350.6 1493 1716 11.29% 18.51% 70.20%-1.61 -4.0 32
2014-03-29 Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 2-152.1 1588 1468 60.16% 22.24% 17.59%+1.02 +3.7 43
2014-03-29 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-252.1 1468 1588 17.59% 22.24% 60.16%-1.02 -3.7 16
2014-03-30 Dinamo Zagreb W 3-278.4 1443 1831 9.35% 16.78% 73.88%-1.86 +11.5 19
2014-03-30 @ Osijek L 2-378.4 1831 1443 73.88% 16.78% 9.35%+1.86 -11.5 65
2014-03-30 Rijeka L 0-156.4 1581 1703 29.10% 24.95% 45.95%-0.35 -6.1 36
2014-03-30 @ Istra 1961 W 1-056.4 1703 1581 45.95% 24.95% 29.10%+0.35 +6.1 57
2014-03-31 RNK Split L 1-255.8 1461 1614 25.55% 24.47% 49.98%-0.53 -5.2 18
2014-03-31 @ Slaven Belupo W 2-155.8 1614 1461 49.98% 24.47% 25.55%+0.53 +5.2 44
2014-04-04 Osijek L 1-264.9 1591 1455 61.97% 21.68% 16.35%+1.12 -10.6 43
2014-04-04 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-164.9 1455 1591 16.35% 21.68% 61.97%-1.12 +10.6 22
2014-04-05 Dinamo Zagreb L 1-255.6 1489 1820 11.97% 19.04% 68.99%-1.53 -2.4 32
2014-04-05 @ Zadar W 2-155.6 1820 1489 68.99% 19.04% 11.97%+1.53 +2.4 68
2014-04-05 Slaven Belupo D 3-370.0 1465 1455 46.99% 24.85% 28.17%+0.40 -0.5 17
2014-04-05 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac D 3-370.0 1455 1465 28.17% 24.85% 46.99%-0.40 +0.5 19
2014-04-06 Hajduk Split W 4-158.4 1709 1720 44.24% 25.09% 30.67%+0.28 +14.7 60
2014-04-06 @ Rijeka L 1-458.4 1720 1709 30.67% 25.09% 44.24%-0.28 -14.7 55
2014-04-06 Istra 1961 W 2-049.8 1619 1574 51.50% 24.23% 24.27%+0.60 +9.9 47
2014-04-06 @ RNK Split L 0-249.8 1574 1619 24.27% 24.23% 51.50%-0.60 -9.9 36
2014-04-11 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-160.8 1456 1581 28.77% 24.91% 46.31%-0.37 +8.3 22
2014-04-11 @ Slaven Belupo L 1-260.8 1581 1456 46.31% 24.91% 28.77%+0.37 -8.3 43
2014-04-12 Rijeka W 4-049.1 1822 1724 57.85% 22.88% 19.27%+0.90 +15.2 71
2014-04-12 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-449.1 1724 1822 19.27% 22.88% 57.85%-0.90 -15.2 60
2014-04-12 Zadar W 4-042.2 1465 1487 42.83% 25.19% 31.98%+0.22 +23.5 25
2014-04-12 @ Osijek L 0-442.2 1487 1465 31.98% 25.19% 42.83%-0.22 -23.5 32
2014-04-13 Hrvatski Dragovoljac L 1-263.4 1565 1464 58.08% 22.82% 19.10%+0.91 -10.0 36
2014-04-13 @ Istra 1961 W 2-163.4 1464 1565 19.10% 22.82% 58.08%-0.91 +10.0 20
2014-04-13 RNK Split W 1-054.2 1706 1629 55.38% 23.48% 21.14%+0.78 +4.6 58
2014-04-13 @ Hajduk Split L 0-154.2 1629 1706 21.14% 23.48% 55.38%-0.78 -4.6 47
2014-04-15 Osijek W 2-153.6 1464 1489 42.38% 25.21% 32.41%+0.20 +6.3 25
2014-04-15 @ Slaven Belupo L 1-253.6 1489 1464 32.41% 25.21% 42.38%-0.20 -6.3 25
2014-04-15 Zadar W 3-041.1 1709 1463 72.10% 17.64% 10.26%+1.74 +6.0 63
2014-04-15 @ Rijeka L 0-341.1 1463 1709 10.26% 17.64% 72.10%-1.74 -6.0 32
2014-04-16 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-349.3 1624 1837 19.79% 23.06% 57.15%-0.87 -11.9 47
2014-04-16 @ RNK Split W 3-049.3 1837 1624 57.15% 23.06% 19.79%+0.87 +11.9 74
2014-04-16 Hajduk Split W 4-163.1 1474 1710 17.93% 22.38% 59.69%-1.00 +25.1 23
2014-04-16 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac L 1-463.1 1710 1474 59.69% 22.38% 17.93%+1.00 -25.1 58
2014-04-16 Istra 1961 W 3-263.5 1573 1555 48.14% 24.71% 27.15%+0.45 +5.2 46
2014-04-16 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 2-363.5 1555 1573 27.15% 24.71% 48.14%-0.45 -5.2 36
2014-04-19 Rijeka W 2-059.8 1483 1714 18.25% 22.51% 59.24%-0.97 +20.3 28
2014-04-19 @ Osijek L 0-259.8 1714 1483 59.24% 22.51% 18.25%+0.97 -20.3 63
2014-04-19 RNK Split L 0-149.8 1457 1612 25.37% 24.43% 50.20%-0.54 -5.4 32
2014-04-19 @ Zadar W 1-049.8 1612 1457 50.20% 24.43% 25.37%+0.54 +5.4 50
2014-04-21 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 2-277.0 1685 1578 58.84% 22.62% 18.54%+0.95 -1.3 59
2014-04-21 @ Hajduk Split D 2-277.0 1578 1685 18.54% 22.62% 58.84%-0.95 +1.3 47
2014-04-21 Slaven Belupo D 3-374.1 1549 1470 55.65% 23.42% 20.93%+0.79 -0.9 37
2014-04-21 @ Istra 1961 D 3-374.1 1470 1549 20.93% 23.42% 55.65%-0.79 +0.9 26
2014-04-22 Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 5-042.1 1849 1499 79.97% 13.55% 6.48%+2.33 +5.6 77
2014-04-22 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-542.1 1499 1849 6.48% 13.55% 79.97%-2.33 -5.6 23
2014-04-25 Osijek D 0-060.3 1549 1503 51.64% 24.21% 24.15%+0.60 -1.3 38
2014-04-25 @ Istra 1961 D 0-060.3 1503 1549 24.15% 24.21% 51.64%-0.60 +1.3 29
2014-04-26 Dinamo Zagreb D 1-173.1 1579 1855 15.13% 21.06% 63.81%-1.22 +2.1 48
2014-04-26 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-173.1 1855 1579 63.81% 21.06% 15.13%+1.22 -2.1 78
2014-04-26 Hajduk Split W 3-056.3 1471 1684 19.83% 23.07% 57.10%-0.86 +28.6 29
2014-04-26 @ Slaven Belupo L 0-356.3 1684 1471 57.10% 23.07% 19.83%+0.86 -28.6 59
2014-04-27 Rijeka D 2-276.9 1618 1694 35.07% 25.32% 39.61%-0.09 +0.1 51
2014-04-27 @ RNK Split D 2-276.9 1694 1618 39.61% 25.32% 35.07%+0.09 -0.1 64
2014-04-27 Zadar W 2-150.7 1494 1452 51.16% 24.29% 24.56%+0.58 +5.0 26
2014-04-27 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac L 1-250.7 1452 1494 24.56% 24.29% 51.16%-0.58 -5.0 32
2014-05-02 Hrvatski Dragovoljac W 3-150.9 1694 1499 67.72% 19.57% 12.71%+1.45 +4.5 67
2014-05-02 @ Rijeka L 1-350.9 1499 1694 12.71% 19.57% 67.72%-1.45 -4.5 26
2014-05-03 RNK Split W 3-160.3 1504 1618 30.16% 25.05% 44.78%-0.30 +13.9 32
2014-05-03 @ Osijek L 1-360.3 1618 1504 44.78% 25.05% 30.16%+0.30 -13.9 51
2014-05-03 Slaven Belupo W 3-041.7 1853 1500 80.16% 13.45% 6.40%+2.35 +3.4 81
2014-05-03 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-341.7 1500 1853 6.40% 13.45% 80.16%-2.35 -3.4 29
2014-05-04 Istra 1961 L 0-163.2 1655 1547 58.91% 22.60% 18.49%+0.96 -10.7 59
2014-05-04 @ Hajduk Split W 1-063.2 1547 1655 18.49% 22.60% 58.91%-0.96 +10.7 41
2014-05-04 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 3-463.0 1447 1581 27.68% 24.79% 47.53%-0.42 -5.1 32
2014-05-04 @ Zadar W 4-363.0 1581 1447 47.53% 24.79% 27.68%+0.42 +5.1 51
2014-05-09 RNK Split W 3-267.8 1494 1604 30.64% 25.09% 44.27%-0.28 +7.6 29
2014-05-09 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac L 2-367.8 1604 1494 44.27% 25.09% 30.64%+0.28 -7.6 51
2014-05-10 Dinamo Zagreb W 2-173.1 1558 1856 13.74% 20.26% 66.00%-1.35 +11.1 44
2014-05-10 @ Istra 1961 L 1-273.1 1856 1558 66.00% 20.26% 13.74%+1.35 -11.1 81
2014-05-10 Rijeka L 1-555.4 1586 1699 30.34% 25.07% 44.59%-0.29 -18.8 51
2014-05-10 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 5-155.4 1699 1586 44.59% 25.07% 30.34%+0.29 +18.8 70
2014-05-11 Osijek W 4-256.4 1644 1518 60.89% 22.02% 17.09%+1.06 +5.5 62
2014-05-11 @ Hajduk Split L 2-456.4 1518 1644 17.09% 22.02% 60.89%-1.06 -5.5 32
2014-05-11 Zadar W 5-142.8 1496 1442 52.75% 24.01% 23.24%+0.65 +15.0 32
2014-05-11 @ Slaven Belupo L 1-542.8 1442 1496 23.24% 24.01% 52.75%-0.65 -15.0 32
2014-05-16 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-168.3 1596 1567 49.54% 24.53% 25.93%+0.51 -1.0 52
2014-05-16 @ RNK Split D 1-168.3 1567 1596 25.93% 24.53% 49.54%-0.51 +1.0 52
2014-05-17 Hajduk Split W 1-051.6 1845 1650 67.67% 19.59% 12.74%+1.45 +2.8 84
2014-05-17 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-151.6 1650 1845 12.74% 19.59% 67.67%-1.45 -2.8 62
2014-05-17 Hrvatski Dragovoljac D 1-163.3 1513 1502 47.22% 24.82% 27.96%+0.41 -0.8 33
2014-05-17 @ Osijek D 1-163.3 1502 1513 27.96% 24.82% 47.22%-0.41 +0.8 30
2014-05-17 Istra 1961 W 1-054.2 1427 1569 26.76% 24.66% 48.59%-0.47 +9.1 35
2014-05-17 @ Zadar L 0-154.2 1569 1427 48.59% 24.66% 26.76%+0.47 -9.1 44
2014-05-17 Slaven Belupo W 2-045.3 1717 1511 68.67% 19.17% 12.16%+1.51 +5.0 73
2014-05-17 @ Rijeka L 0-245.3 1511 1717 12.16% 19.17% 68.67%-1.51 -5.0 32

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2014-03-30 9.35% @ Osijek 1443 3 Dinamo Zagreb 1831 2
2 2014-05-10 13.74% @ Istra 1961 1558 2 Dinamo Zagreb 1856 1
3 2014-03-09 14.56% Zadar 1447 3 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1611 1
4 2014-04-04 16.35% Osijek 1455 2 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1591 1
5 2014-03-22 16.88% Zadar 1472 2 @ Istra 1961 1601 0
6 2014-04-16 17.93% @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1474 4 Hajduk Split 1710 1
7 2014-04-19 18.25% @ Osijek 1483 2 Rijeka 1714 0
8 2014-05-04 18.49% Istra 1961 1547 1 @ Hajduk Split 1655 0
9 2014-04-13 19.10% Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1464 2 @ Istra 1961 1565 1
10 2013-09-14 19.17% Zadar 1495 1 @ Istra 1961 1595 0
11 2014-04-26 19.83% @ Slaven Belupo 1471 3 Hajduk Split 1684 0
12 2013-08-09 19.91% Zadar 1503 3 @ RNK Split 1593 1
13 2013-08-31 21.15% @ Osijek 1485 1 Hajduk Split 1683 0
14 2014-02-16 21.26% @ Zadar 1478 1 Rijeka 1674 0
15 2014-02-28 23.90% Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1434 4 @ Zadar 1482 0
16 2013-10-19 25.02% @ RNK Split 1598 1 Dinamo Zagreb 1756 0
17 2013-09-29 25.98% Istra 1961 1577 1 @ RNK Split 1606 0
18 2014-05-17 26.76% @ Zadar 1427 1 Istra 1961 1569 0
19 2013-10-04 26.92% @ Slaven Belupo 1512 3 Lokomotiva Zagreb 1653 2
20 2014-04-11 28.77% @ Slaven Belupo 1456 2 Lokomotiva Zagreb 1581 1
21 2013-08-31 28.89% Slaven Belupo 1508 2 @ Zadar 1511 0
22 2014-02-15 29.78% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1614 4 @ Istra 1961 1610 2
23 2014-05-03 30.16% @ Osijek 1504 3 RNK Split 1618 1
24 2014-05-09 30.64% @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1494 3 RNK Split 1604 2
25 2013-11-04 31.81% Zadar 1489 2 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1469 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-02-28 34.50 Hrvatski Dragovoljac 4 1434 23.90% @ Zadar 0 1482 51.94% 24.15%
2 2014-04-26 28.63 @ Slaven Belupo 3 1471 19.83% Hajduk Split 0 1684 57.10% 23.07%
3 2014-04-16 25.07 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac 4 1474 17.93% Hajduk Split 1 1710 59.69% 22.38%
4 2013-11-30 24.91 Istra 1961 4 1575 40.28% @ Zadar 0 1494 34.42% 25.30%
5 2014-04-12 23.53 @ Osijek 4 1465 42.83% Zadar 0 1487 31.98% 25.19%
6 2013-07-28 22.03 Hajduk Split 3 1649 33.15% @ RNK Split 0 1619 41.60% 25.25%
7 2014-03-22 20.91 Zadar 2 1472 16.88% @ Istra 1961 0 1601 61.19% 21.93%
8 2014-04-19 20.34 @ Osijek 2 1483 18.25% Rijeka 0 1714 59.24% 22.51%
9 2013-07-13 19.04 Hajduk Split 5 1631 44.07% @ Zadar 1 1523 30.82% 25.11%
10 2014-03-09 18.97 Zadar 3 1447 14.56% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1611 64.69% 20.75%
11 2014-05-10 18.81 Rijeka 5 1699 44.59% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1586 30.34% 25.07%
12 2014-02-16 18.05 @ Osijek 4 1446 34.59% Slaven Belupo 1 1526 40.10% 25.31%
13 2013-11-30 17.72 @ RNK Split 3 1619 43.54% Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1635 31.32% 25.14%
14 2013-11-02 17.40 Dinamo Zagreb 3 1751 44.31% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1641 30.60% 25.09%
15 2013-07-12 17.31 @ Rijeka 3 1589 44.52% Istra 1961 0 1598 30.41% 25.07%
16 2013-08-09 17.05 Zadar 3 1503 19.91% @ RNK Split 1 1593 56.99% 23.10%
17 2013-08-25 16.62 @ RNK Split 4 1577 55.25% Osijek 0 1502 21.25% 23.51%
18 2013-08-31 16.49 Slaven Belupo 2 1508 28.89% @ Zadar 0 1511 46.19% 24.93%
19 2013-11-04 15.57 Zadar 2 1489 31.81% @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac 0 1469 43.02% 25.18%
20 2013-09-14 15.29 @ Hajduk Split 2 1673 32.75% Dinamo Zagreb 0 1766 42.02% 25.23%
21 2014-04-12 15.16 @ Dinamo Zagreb 4 1822 57.85% Rijeka 0 1724 19.27% 22.88%
22 2014-03-16 15.06 @ Dinamo Zagreb 6 1803 66.90% Istra 1961 0 1617 13.20% 19.90%
23 2014-05-11 15.02 @ Slaven Belupo 5 1496 52.75% Zadar 1 1442 23.24% 24.01%
24 2013-12-19 15.01 Rijeka 2 1659 33.67% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1625 41.05% 25.27%
25 2013-09-28 14.79 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 5 1638 63.63% Osijek 0 1485 15.25% 21.13%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2013-12-08 80.7 @ Rijeka 3 1659 53.29% Istra 1961 3 1600 22.80% 23.91%
2 2013-11-03 80.2 @ Slaven Belupo 3 1531 23.73% Hajduk Split 3 1702 52.16% 24.12%
3 2013-12-01 78.6 @ Dinamo Zagreb 2 1771 54.02% Hajduk Split 2 1706 22.21% 23.77%
4 2014-03-30 78.4 @ Osijek 3 1443 9.35% Dinamo Zagreb 2 1831 73.88% 16.78%
5 2014-02-26 78.2 @ Rijeka 2 1667 28.97% Dinamo Zagreb 2 1790 46.09% 24.94%
6 2013-12-15 77.8 @ Hajduk Split 2 1705 51.77% Rijeka 2 1658 24.05% 24.19%
7 2014-04-21 77.0 @ Hajduk Split 2 1685 58.84% Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1578 18.54% 22.62%
8 2014-04-27 76.9 @ RNK Split 2 1618 35.07% Rijeka 2 1694 39.61% 25.32%
9 2013-12-01 75.7 @ Rijeka 2 1655 60.93% Slaven Belupo 2 1529 17.06% 22.01%
10 2014-04-21 74.1 @ Istra 1961 3 1549 55.65% Slaven Belupo 3 1470 20.93% 23.42%
11 2014-04-26 73.1 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1579 15.13% Dinamo Zagreb 1 1855 63.81% 21.06%
12 2014-05-10 73.1 @ Istra 1961 2 1558 13.74% Dinamo Zagreb 1 1856 66.00% 20.26%
13 2013-08-10 72.2 @ Slaven Belupo 2 1518 37.09% Istra 1961 2 1580 37.56% 25.35%
14 2013-11-24 71.7 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2 1453 24.15% RNK Split 2 1620 51.65% 24.21%
15 2014-03-09 71.3 @ Istra 1961 1 1616 29.89% Hajduk Split 1 1732 45.09% 25.03%
16 2013-09-28 71.2 @ Rijeka 1 1650 40.07% Hajduk Split 1 1691 34.62% 25.31%
17 2013-08-10 71.0 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1 1491 16.03% Dinamo Zagreb 1 1753 62.44% 21.53%
18 2013-10-04 70.9 @ Slaven Belupo 3 1512 26.92% Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1653 48.40% 24.68%
19 2013-11-24 70.5 @ Hajduk Split 1 1709 72.69% Osijek 1 1456 9.95% 17.35%
20 2013-07-21 70.4 @ Hajduk Split 1 1650 51.48% Rijeka 1 1606 24.28% 24.23%
21 2013-09-02 70.4 @ Rijeka 1 1637 45.99% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1636 29.06% 24.95%
22 2013-07-20 70.0 @ Slaven Belupo 2 1529 49.54% Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2 1500 25.93% 24.53%
23 2014-04-05 70.0 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3 1465 46.99% Slaven Belupo 3 1455 28.17% 24.85%
24 2013-09-15 69.9 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1636 50.71% RNK Split 1 1598 24.94% 24.36%
25 2014-03-16 69.9 @ Osijek 1 1453 14.94% Hajduk Split 1 1731 64.11% 20.96%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-04-15 41.1 @ Rijeka 3 1709 72.10% Zadar 0 1463 10.26% 17.64%
2 2014-05-03 41.7 @ Dinamo Zagreb 3 1853 80.16% Slaven Belupo 0 1500 6.40% 13.45%
3 2014-03-23 42.0 @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2 1457 46.03% Osijek 0 1455 29.03% 24.94%
4 2014-04-22 42.1 @ Dinamo Zagreb 5 1849 79.97% Hrvatski Dragovoljac 0 1499 6.48% 13.55%
5 2014-04-12 42.2 @ Osijek 4 1465 42.83% Zadar 0 1487 31.98% 25.19%
6 2013-12-04 42.5 @ Rijeka 2 1654 68.06% Hrvatski Dragovoljac 0 1455 12.51% 19.43%
7 2014-03-02 42.6 @ Hajduk Split 3 1725 70.82% Slaven Belupo 0 1495 10.95% 18.23%
8 2013-09-28 42.7 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 5 1638 63.63% Osijek 0 1485 15.25% 21.13%
9 2014-05-11 42.8 @ Slaven Belupo 5 1496 52.75% Zadar 1 1442 23.24% 24.01%
10 2013-07-19 42.9 @ Dinamo Zagreb 3 1744 71.70% Zadar 0 1504 10.48% 17.82%
11 2013-10-20 43.0 @ Slaven Belupo 2 1520 52.19% Osijek 0 1470 23.70% 24.11%
12 2013-08-25 43.1 @ RNK Split 4 1577 55.25% Osijek 0 1502 21.25% 23.51%
13 2013-10-19 43.5 @ Rijeka 3 1645 62.33% Zadar 0 1505 16.11% 21.57%
14 2014-03-23 45.2 Rijeka 3 1691 57.84% @ Slaven Belupo 0 1472 19.28% 22.89%
15 2014-05-17 45.3 @ Rijeka 2 1717 68.67% Slaven Belupo 0 1511 12.16% 19.17%
16 2014-03-08 45.6 @ RNK Split 1 1607 63.41% Osijek 0 1456 15.39% 21.20%
17 2013-08-23 46.2 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1642 60.55% Zadar 0 1519 17.32% 22.13%
18 2013-12-08 46.2 @ Dinamo Zagreb 4 1770 77.31% Osijek 1 1458 7.68% 15.01%
19 2014-02-23 46.4 @ Rijeka 1 1664 68.12% Osijek 0 1464 12.48% 19.41%
20 2014-02-28 46.6 Hrvatski Dragovoljac 4 1434 23.90% @ Zadar 0 1482 51.94% 24.15%
21 2013-10-27 46.9 @ Dinamo Zagreb 4 1747 74.42% Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1 1473 9.07% 16.51%
22 2014-03-07 47.0 Rijeka 2 1679 56.91% @ Hrvatski Dragovoljac 0 1468 19.97% 23.12%
23 2013-08-30 47.3 @ RNK Split 1 1594 59.32% Hrvatski Dragovoljac 0 1482 18.19% 22.49%
24 2013-11-30 47.3 Istra 1961 4 1575 40.28% @ Zadar 0 1494 34.42% 25.30%
25 2014-03-16 47.4 @ Dinamo Zagreb 6 1803 66.90% Istra 1961 0 1617 13.20% 19.90%