2017-18 Prva HNL Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Dinamo Zagreb

73 points · 19th Title

Last Title: 2015-16

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Inter Zapresic

12.30 points above expected

43 points · 30.70 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Istra 1961

11.96 points below expected

27 points · 38.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Dinamo Zagreb Champion	36	22	7	7	73	68	34	+34	78.20	-5.20
2	Rijeka	36	22	4	10	70	75	32	+43	74.43	-4.43
3	Hajduk Split	36	19	9	8	66	70	38	+32	69.90	-3.90
4	Osijek	36	14	14	8	56	53	38	+15	57.36	-1.36
5	Lokomotiva Zagreb	36	14	9	13	51	47	48	-1	48.70	+2.30
6	Slaven Belupo	36	11	10	15	43	35	45	-10	38.77	+4.23
7	Inter Zapresic	36	11	10	15	43	43	64	-21	30.70	+12.30
8	Rudes	36	10	10	16	40	41	62	-21	39.68	+0.32
9	Istra 1961	36	6	9	21	27	28	60	-32	38.96	-11.96
10	Cibalia	36	6	8	22	26	36	75	-39	26.87	-0.87

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Inter Zapresic	43	30.70	+12.30
2	Slaven Belupo	43	38.77	+4.23
3	Lokomotiva Zagreb	51	48.70	+2.30
4	Rudes	40	39.68	+0.32
5	Cibalia	26	26.87	-0.87

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Istra 1961	27	38.96	-11.96
2	Dinamo Zagreb	73	78.20	-5.20
3	Rijeka	70	74.43	-4.43
4	Hajduk Split	66	69.90	-3.90
5	Osijek	56	57.36	-1.36

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lokomotiva Zagreb	5	Apr 28 – May 18	1 in 331
2	Rudes	4	Apr 29 – May 14	1 in 150
3	Cibalia	3	Aug 13 – Aug 27	1 in 95
4	Hajduk Split	5	Dec 2 – Feb 18	1 in 72
5	Dinamo Zagreb	6	Aug 6 – Sep 16	1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rijeka	4	Oct 14 – Nov 5	1 in 423
2	Osijek	3	Apr 21 – May 5	1 in 41
3	Rudes	3	Aug 5 – Aug 20	1 in 36
4	Dinamo Zagreb	2	Mar 7 – Mar 10	1 in 27
5	Istra 1961	5	Mar 24 – Apr 17	1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Inter Zapresic	6	Oct 15 – Nov 24	1 in 231
2	Osijek	7	Sep 9 – Oct 28	1 in 47
3	Lokomotiva Zagreb	8	Apr 15 – May 18	1 in 45
4	Dinamo Zagreb	21	Jul 15 – Feb 10	1 in 39
5	Rudes	6	Apr 23 – May 18	1 in 35

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rijeka	5	Oct 14 – Nov 18	1 in 151
2	Lokomotiva Zagreb	8	Nov 19 – Mar 4	1 in 63
3	Slaven Belupo	11	Aug 11 – Nov 5	1 in 44
4	Dinamo Zagreb	4	Apr 28 – May 14	1 in 37
5	Istra 1961	11	Mar 24 – May 18	1 in 34

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Dinamo Zagreb	1837	73	-25	4	10.6	-6.6
Rijeka	1845	70	+6	10	9.7	+0.3
Hajduk Split	1806	66	-9	5	9.3	-4.3
Osijek	1698	56	-16	4	8.7	-4.7
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1658	51	+30	15	6.6	+8.4
Slaven Belupo	1565	43	+4	8	5.4	+2.6
Inter Zapresic	1487	43	+9	6	3.4	+2.6
Rudes	1566	40	+25	13	6.3	+6.7
Istra 1961	1505	27	-19	2	6.2	-4.2
Cibalia	1444	26	-4	2	3.6	-1.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CIB	DZ	HS	IZ	I1	LZ	OSI	RIJ	RUD	SB
Cibalia	—	0-0-4 1.28	0-0-4 1.66	1-0-3 5.19	1-2-1 4.29	1-1-2 3.06	1-2-1 2.41	0-1-3 1.45	1-2-1 4.08	1-0-3 3.95
Dinamo Zagreb	4-0-0 10.31	—	2-1-1 6.43	3-1-0 10.08	3-1-0 9.62	2-0-2 8.73	1-2-1 7.97	2-0-2 6.00	2-1-1 9.58	3-1-0 9.47
Hajduk Split	4-0-0 9.82	1-1-2 4.57	—	3-1-0 9.62	4-0-0 9.04	3-1-0 7.87	0-3-1 7.09	1-1-2 4.99	2-0-2 8.97	1-2-1 8.82
Inter Zapresic	3-0-1 5.78	0-1-3 1.46	0-1-3 1.82	—	2-2-0 4.61	1-1-2 3.38	2-1-1 2.63	0-1-3 1.65	2-1-1 4.41	1-2-1 4.24
Istra 1961	1-2-1 6.73	0-1-3 1.82	0-0-4 2.28	0-2-2 6.38	—	1-1-2 4.17	0-2-2 3.35	1-0-3 1.97	1-1-2 5.25	2-0-2 5.02
Lokomotiva Zagreb	2-1-1 8.10	2-0-2 2.53	0-1-3 3.26	2-1-1 7.73	2-1-1 6.86	—	1-1-2 4.44	2-0-2 2.83	2-2-0 6.65	1-2-1 6.53
Osijek	1-2-1 8.88	1-2-1 3.17	1-3-0 3.94	1-1-2 8.61	2-2-0 7.78	2-1-1 6.57	—	3-0-1 3.52	1-2-1 7.65	2-1-1 7.52
Rijeka	3-1-0 10.10	2-0-2 4.98	2-1-1 5.99	3-1-0 9.84	3-0-1 9.42	2-0-2 8.37	1-0-3 7.57	—	3-0-1 9.28	3-1-0 9.17
Rudes	1-2-1 6.95	1-1-2 1.85	2-0-2 2.34	1-1-2 6.61	2-1-1 5.71	0-2-2 4.36	1-2-1 3.44	1-0-3 2.09	—	1-1-2 5.22
Slaven Belupo	3-0-1 7.10	0-1-3 1.94	1-2-1 2.46	1-2-1 6.78	2-0-2 5.96	1-2-1 4.47	1-1-2 3.56	0-1-3 2.18	2-1-1 5.76	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.90	+9.7
Allowed	0.82	-10.2
Differential	0.96	+5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	9.17%	5.83%	3.06%	1.39%	0.83%	25.83%
1	9.17%	13.89%	6.67%	4.72%	1.11%	1.39%	36.94%
2	5.83%	6.67%	4.44%	1.94%	0.83%	0.56%	20.28%
3	3.06%	4.72%	1.94%	1.11%	—	—	10.83%
4	1.39%	1.11%	0.83%	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	0.83%	1.39%	0.56%	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	25.83%	36.94%	20.28%	10.83%	3.33%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.38	1.38	+0.00
SD	1.25	1.25	1.89
CV	0.91	0.91	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
1	5.56%	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	52.78%
2	—	2.78%	—	5.56%	—	2.78%	11.11%
3	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	13.89%	8.33%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	2.08	-1.08
SD	0.86	1.71	2.09
CV	0.86	0.82	—
Max	3	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	8.33%	—	2.78%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	16.67%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	2.78%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	41.67%	36.11%	13.89%	2.78%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	0.94	+0.94
SD	1.41	1.09	1.77
CV	0.75	1.16	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	11.11%	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	27.78%
3	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	13.89%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	38.89%	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	1.06	+0.89
SD	1.39	1.04	1.88
CV	0.72	0.99	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	13.89%	—	2.78%	36.11%
1	5.56%	11.11%	2.78%	8.33%	—	2.78%	30.56%
2	2.78%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	13.89%
3	—	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	30.56%	22.22%	25.00%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	1.78	-0.58
SD	1.19	1.31	1.87
CV	1.00	0.74	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	16.67%	13.89%	—	5.56%	—	44.44%
1	8.33%	13.89%	8.33%	2.78%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	13.89%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	38.89%	25.00%	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.78	1.67	-0.89
SD	0.90	1.37	1.58
CV	1.15	0.82	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	25.00%
1	16.67%	11.11%	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	25.00%
3	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	25.00%	36.11%	19.44%	19.44%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.31	1.33	-0.03
SD	1.17	1.07	1.56
CV	0.89	0.80	—
Max	5	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	36.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	50.00%
2	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	2.78%	—	19.44%
3	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	61.11%	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.06	+0.42
SD	0.94	0.89	1.34
CV	0.64	0.85	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	—	19.44%
1	8.33%	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	2.78%	—	19.44%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	36.11%	47.22%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.08	0.89	+1.19
SD	1.75	0.92	2.10
CV	0.84	1.03	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	—	25.00%
1	8.33%	22.22%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	47.22%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.89%	33.33%	30.56%	13.89%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.72	-0.58
SD	0.96	1.21	1.66
CV	0.84	0.70	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	13.89%	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	41.67%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
2	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	2.78%	27.78%
3	—	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.56%	30.56%	27.78%	8.33%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.97	1.25	-0.28
SD	0.97	1.16	1.41
CV	1.00	0.92	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Rijeka	1845	70	74.43	-4.43	31.0%	55	62	70	74	80	85	91
Dinamo Zagreb	1837	73	78.20	-5.20	22.0%	58	66	74	79	82	90	94
Hajduk Split	1806	66	69.90	-3.90	33.0%	55	58	65	70	75	80	84
Osijek	1698	56	57.36	-1.36	46.0%	39	42	54	58	62	69	75
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1658	51	48.70	+2.30	63.0%	33	35	43	49	54	60	67
Rudes	1566	40	39.68	+0.32	52.0%	19	27	35	40	45	50	56
Slaven Belupo	1565	43	38.77	+4.23	78.0%	14	25	34	39	43	50	57
Istra 1961	1505	27	38.96	-11.96	2.0%	24	28	35	39	44	50	54
Inter Zapresic	1487	43	30.70	+12.30	98.0%	17	19	25	30	36	41	47
Cibalia	1444	26	26.87	-0.87	50.0%	10	15	22	26	31	37	46

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 18.5% * Slight Edge: 18.5% to 25.5% * Clear Edge: 25.5% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+19.44%

Slight Edge

47.22%25.00%27.78%

Elo Value

Home Edge

214 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

068.43600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.39 goals

Neutral

-2+0.32+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.13 * Tight Race: 0.13 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.46 * Runaway: 0.46 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.4

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

54%

Dinamo Zagreb, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.08/gm

Photo Finish

00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.72 * Some Luck: 5.72 to 8.58 * Lucky: 8.58 to 11.43 * Wild Swing: 11.43 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.68 * Close: 0.68 to 1.01 * Off: 1.01 to 1.35 * Way Off: 1.35 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.12 points

Some Luck

07.1518

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.80

00.842

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

98.00%

Inter Zapresic

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

2.00%

Istra 1961

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.22 * Lopsided: 0.22 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 67% * Clear Edge: 67% to 71% * Wide Edge: 71% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90% * Clear Edge: 90% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95.5% * Dominant: 95.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 58% * Some Drama: 58% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 64% * Very Frequent: 64% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 16.5% * Frequent: 16.5% to 19.5% * Very Frequent: 19.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Top-Heavy

00.170.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 150.37

2.12

Strong Separation

11.852.353.5

Interquartile Edge

82%

Wide Edge

50%65%71%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 95%

91%

Clear Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

61%

Frequent

0%57%100%

Blowouts

Expected

17%

Frequent

0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Lopsided: 0.46 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.79 * Near-Lock: 0.79 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 17% * Very Shaky: 17% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.58

Predictable

00.532

Matchup Imbalance

0.49

Lopsided

00.390.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.82

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.93

Near-Lock

00.570.791

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Very Upset-Prone

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Very Shaky

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.04

Miscalibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.72

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.104

Well Within Noise

00.1200.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Dinamo Zagreb	54.00%	35.00%	9.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Rijeka	35.00%	36.00%	27.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Hajduk Split	10.00%	26.00%	52.00%	12.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Osijek	1.00%	3.00%	11.00%	63.00%	12.00%	6.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—
Lokomotiva Zagreb	—	—	1.00%	14.00%	52.00%	14.00%	10.00%	7.00%	2.00%	—
Slaven Belupo	—	—	—	2.00%	15.00%	18.00%	23.00%	21.00%	16.00%	5.00%
Inter Zapresic	—	—	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	19.00%	15.00%	35.00%	27.00%
Rudes	—	—	—	2.00%	12.00%	34.00%	17.00%	23.00%	7.00%	5.00%
Istra 1961	—	—	—	3.00%	7.00%	24.00%	24.00%	21.00%	14.00%	7.00%
Cibalia	—	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	12.00%	26.00%	56.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Dinamo Zagreb	100%	—	—
Hajduk Split	100%	—	—
Lokomotiva Zagreb	98.00%	2.00%	—
Osijek	100%	—	—
Rijeka	100%	—	—
Rudes	88.00%	7.00%	5.00%
Slaven Belupo	79.00%	16.00%	5.00%
Istra 1961	79.00%	14.00%	7.00%
Inter Zapresic	38.00%	35.00%	27.00%
Cibalia	18.00%	26.00%	56.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2017-07-14	Cibalia	W 3-1	47.8	1456	1453	46.81%	25.61%	27.58%	+0.33	+6.4	3
2017-07-14	@ Inter Zapresic	L 1-3	47.8	1453	1456	27.58%	25.61%	46.81%	-0.33	-6.4	0
2017-07-15	Istra 1961	W 2-0	44.5	1844	1552	79.11%	12.15%	8.74%	+1.68	+2.1	3
2017-07-15	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	44.5	1552	1844	8.74%	12.15%	79.11%	-1.68	-2.1	0
2017-07-15	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	44.9	1839	1559	78.06%	12.74%	9.20%	+1.62	+2.2	3
2017-07-15	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	44.9	1559	1839	9.20%	12.74%	78.06%	-1.62	-2.2	0
2017-07-16	Hajduk Split	L 1-3	60.2	1646	1791	27.09%	25.49%	47.42%	-0.35	-6.3	0
2017-07-16	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-1	60.2	1791	1646	47.42%	25.49%	27.09%	+0.35	+6.3	3
2017-07-16	Rudes	D 1-1	71.3	1680	1591	57.95%	22.49%	19.56%	+0.73	-1.1	1
2017-07-16	@ Osijek	D 1-1	71.3	1591	1680	19.56%	22.49%	57.95%	-0.73	+1.1	1
2017-07-21	Cibalia	W 4-0	39.0	1846	1447	86.81%	7.79%	5.40%	+2.18	+2.2	6
2017-07-21	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	39.0	1447	1846	5.40%	7.79%	86.81%	-2.18	-2.2	0
2017-07-22	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 1-0	58.4	1557	1640	34.64%	26.47%	38.89%	-0.07	+5.1	3
2017-07-22	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	58.4	1640	1557	38.89%	26.47%	34.64%	+0.07	-5.1	0
2017-07-22	Rudes	W 4-1	49.2	1841	1592	75.25%	14.28%	10.47%	+1.48	+3.1	6
2017-07-22	@ Rijeka	L 1-4	49.2	1592	1841	10.47%	14.28%	75.25%	-1.48	-3.1	1
2017-07-23	Hajduk Split	D 2-2	78.7	1462	1797	12.81%	16.92%	70.27%	-1.24	+1.2	4
2017-07-23	@ Inter Zapresic	D 2-2	78.7	1797	1462	70.27%	16.92%	12.81%	+1.24	-1.2	4
2017-07-23	Osijek	D 1-1	69.6	1550	1679	28.80%	25.85%	45.35%	-0.28	+0.4	1
2017-07-23	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	69.6	1679	1550	45.35%	25.85%	28.80%	+0.28	-0.4	2
2017-07-28	Rudes	D 1-1	70.0	1635	1589	52.51%	24.28%	23.21%	+0.53	-0.8	1
2017-07-28	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	70.0	1589	1635	23.21%	24.28%	52.51%	-0.53	+0.8	2
2017-07-29	Istra 1961	W 2-0	44.5	1844	1550	79.24%	12.08%	8.68%	+1.69	+2.0	9
2017-07-29	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	44.5	1550	1844	8.68%	12.08%	79.24%	-1.69	-2.0	1
2017-07-29	Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	51.2	1464	1562	32.63%	26.35%	41.03%	-0.14	-4.5	4
2017-07-29	@ Inter Zapresic	W 1-0	51.2	1562	1464	41.03%	26.35%	32.63%	+0.14	+4.5	6
2017-07-30	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	72.6	1679	1849	24.44%	24.73%	50.83%	-0.47	+0.7	3
2017-07-30	@ Osijek	D 1-1	72.6	1849	1679	50.83%	24.73%	24.44%	+0.47	-0.7	7
2017-07-30	Hajduk Split	L 1-2	53.8	1444	1796	11.99%	16.04%	71.97%	-1.32	-1.5	0
2017-07-30	@ Cibalia	W 2-1	53.8	1796	1444	71.97%	16.04%	11.99%	+1.32	+1.5	7
2017-08-04	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	62.4	1548	1634	34.29%	26.45%	39.25%	-0.08	-4.4	1
2017-08-04	@ Istra 1961	W 2-1	62.4	1634	1548	39.25%	26.45%	34.29%	+0.08	+4.4	4
2017-08-05	Cibalia	W 2-1	49.9	1566	1443	62.08%	20.82%	17.09%	+0.90	+2.3	9
2017-08-05	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	49.9	1443	1566	17.09%	20.82%	62.08%	-0.90	-2.3	0
2017-08-05	Inter Zapresic	L 0-2	56.1	1590	1459	62.94%	20.45%	16.61%	+0.93	-14.0	2
2017-08-05	@ Rudes	W 2-0	56.1	1459	1590	16.61%	20.45%	62.94%	-0.93	+14.0	7
2017-08-06	Hajduk Split	W 3-1	59.1	1848	1797	53.11%	24.11%	22.78%	+0.55	+5.4	10
2017-08-06	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	59.1	1797	1848	22.78%	24.11%	53.11%	-0.55	-5.4	7
2017-08-07	Rijeka	W 1-0	64.7	1679	1846	24.74%	24.84%	50.42%	-0.46	+6.2	6
2017-08-07	@ Osijek	L 0-1	64.7	1846	1679	50.42%	24.84%	24.74%	+0.46	-6.2	9
2017-08-11	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	60.3	1840	1853	44.57%	25.97%	29.46%	+0.26	-10.7	9
2017-08-11	@ Rijeka	W 2-0	60.3	1853	1840	29.46%	25.97%	44.57%	-0.26	+10.7	13
2017-08-11	Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	49.4	1792	1569	72.83%	15.58%	11.59%	+1.36	+1.5	10
2017-08-11	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	49.4	1569	1792	11.59%	15.58%	72.83%	-1.36	-1.5	9
2017-08-12	Istra 1961	D 2-2	69.0	1473	1544	36.39%	26.51%	37.10%	-0.01	+0.0	8
2017-08-12	@ Inter Zapresic	D 2-2	69.0	1544	1473	37.10%	26.51%	36.39%	+0.01	-0.0	2
2017-08-12	Osijek	L 2-3	71.7	1639	1686	39.81%	26.43%	33.76%	+0.10	-4.7	4
2017-08-12	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-2	71.7	1686	1639	33.76%	26.43%	39.81%	-0.10	+4.6	9
2017-08-13	Rudes	W 3-0	49.5	1440	1576	28.08%	25.71%	46.21%	-0.31	+16.0	3
2017-08-13	@ Cibalia	L 0-3	49.5	1576	1440	46.21%	25.71%	28.08%	+0.31	-16.0	2
2017-08-18	Cibalia	L 0-1	56.6	1544	1456	57.76%	22.56%	19.67%	+0.73	-7.0	2
2017-08-18	@ Istra 1961	W 1-0	56.6	1456	1544	19.67%	22.56%	57.76%	-0.73	+7.0	6
2017-08-19	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	56.6	1829	1634	69.99%	17.06%	12.94%	+1.23	+1.7	12
2017-08-19	@ Rijeka	L 1-2	56.6	1634	1829	12.94%	17.06%	69.99%	-1.23	-1.7	4
2017-08-20	Hajduk Split	L 0-4	48.0	1560	1794	18.98%	22.14%	58.89%	-0.77	-9.8	2
2017-08-20	@ Rudes	W 4-0	48.0	1794	1560	58.89%	22.14%	18.98%	+0.77	+9.8	13
2017-08-20	Inter Zapresic	W 3-0	41.1	1690	1473	72.23%	15.90%	11.87%	+1.33	+4.4	12
2017-08-20	@ Osijek	L 0-3	41.1	1473	1690	11.87%	15.90%	72.23%	-1.33	-4.3	8
2017-08-20	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	44.7	1864	1567	79.48%	11.94%	8.57%	+1.70	+2.0	16
2017-08-20	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	44.7	1567	1864	8.57%	11.94%	79.48%	-1.70	-2.0	9
2017-08-26	Rijeka	L 1-3	51.4	1469	1831	11.50%	15.48%	73.02%	-1.37	-2.5	8
2017-08-26	@ Inter Zapresic	W 3-1	51.4	1831	1469	73.02%	15.48%	11.50%	+1.37	+2.5	15
2017-08-26	Rudes	D 2-2	72.8	1565	1550	48.42%	25.29%	26.29%	+0.39	-0.4	10
2017-08-26	@ Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	72.8	1550	1565	26.29%	25.29%	48.42%	-0.39	+0.4	3
2017-08-27	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	49.2	1632	1866	18.98%	22.13%	58.89%	-0.77	-7.5	4
2017-08-27	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-0	49.2	1866	1632	58.89%	22.13%	18.98%	+0.77	+7.5	19
2017-08-27	Istra 1961	W 2-0	44.7	1803	1537	76.87%	13.40%	9.74%	+1.56	+2.4	16
2017-08-27	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-2	44.7	1537	1803	9.74%	13.40%	76.87%	-1.56	-2.3	2
2017-08-27	Osijek	W 2-1	67.8	1463	1695	19.15%	22.24%	58.61%	-0.76	+6.6	9
2017-08-27	@ Cibalia	L 1-2	67.8	1695	1463	58.61%	22.24%	19.15%	+0.76	-6.6	12
2017-09-08	Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	53.4	1535	1565	42.22%	26.24%	31.54%	+0.18	+4.4	5
2017-09-08	@ Istra 1961	L 0-1	53.4	1565	1535	31.54%	26.24%	42.22%	-0.18	-4.4	10
2017-09-09	Cibalia	W 7-0	41.8	1833	1470	84.49%	9.12%	6.39%	+2.01	+4.6	18
2017-09-09	@ Rijeka	L 0-7	41.8	1470	1833	6.39%	9.12%	84.49%	-2.01	-4.6	9
2017-09-09	Hajduk Split	W 2-1	68.7	1688	1806	30.19%	26.08%	43.74%	-0.23	+5.3	15
2017-09-09	@ Osijek	L 1-2	68.7	1806	1688	43.74%	26.08%	30.19%	+0.23	-5.3	16
2017-09-10	Inter Zapresic	W 3-0	40.8	1625	1466	66.06%	19.01%	14.93%	+1.06	+5.7	7
2017-09-10	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-3	40.8	1466	1625	14.93%	19.01%	66.06%	-1.06	-5.7	8
2017-09-10	Rudes	W 3-2	58.2	1873	1551	81.55%	10.78%	7.66%	+1.82	+0.8	22
2017-09-10	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-3	58.2	1551	1873	7.66%	10.78%	81.55%	-1.82	-0.8	3
2017-09-15	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	50.9	1465	1631	24.91%	24.89%	50.20%	-0.45	-3.6	9
2017-09-15	@ Cibalia	W 1-0	50.9	1631	1465	50.20%	24.89%	24.91%	+0.45	+3.6	10
2017-09-16	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	50.3	1461	1874	9.32%	12.89%	77.79%	-1.61	-1.9	8
2017-09-16	@ Inter Zapresic	W 3-1	50.3	1874	1461	77.79%	12.89%	9.32%	+1.61	+1.9	25
2017-09-16	Osijek	D 1-1	70.1	1560	1693	28.36%	25.77%	45.87%	-0.30	+0.5	11
2017-09-16	@ Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	70.1	1693	1560	45.87%	25.77%	28.36%	+0.30	-0.5	16
2017-09-17	Istra 1961	W 1-0	51.4	1550	1539	47.88%	25.40%	26.72%	+0.37	+3.8	6
2017-09-17	@ Rudes	L 0-1	51.4	1539	1550	26.72%	25.40%	47.88%	-0.37	-3.8	5
2017-09-17	Rijeka	L 0-2	59.3	1800	1838	41.16%	26.34%	32.51%	+0.14	-10.1	16
2017-09-17	@ Hajduk Split	W 2-0	59.3	1838	1800	32.51%	26.34%	41.16%	-0.14	+10.0	21
2017-09-23	Inter Zapresic	L 1-2	57.0	1462	1459	46.85%	25.60%	27.55%	+0.33	-5.6	9
2017-09-23	@ Cibalia	W 2-1	57.0	1459	1462	27.55%	25.60%	46.85%	-0.33	+5.6	11
2017-09-23	Rijeka	D 1-1	73.7	1561	1848	15.41%	19.44%	65.15%	-1.02	+1.4	12
2017-09-23	@ Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	73.7	1848	1561	65.15%	19.44%	15.41%	+1.02	-1.4	22
2017-09-24	Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	69.9	1535	1876	12.50%	16.60%	70.90%	-1.27	+1.8	6
2017-09-24	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	69.9	1876	1535	70.90%	16.60%	12.50%	+1.27	-1.9	26
2017-09-24	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	79.8	1790	1634	65.80%	19.14%	15.07%	+1.05	-1.1	17
2017-09-24	@ Hajduk Split	D 2-2	79.8	1634	1790	15.07%	19.14%	65.80%	-1.05	+1.1	11
2017-09-25	Osijek	D 1-1	70.0	1554	1693	27.66%	25.62%	46.72%	-0.33	+0.5	7
2017-09-25	@ Rudes	D 1-1	70.0	1693	1554	46.72%	25.62%	27.66%	+0.33	-0.5	17
2017-09-29	Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	65.1	1635	1562	55.97%	23.20%	20.83%	+0.66	-1.1	12
2017-09-29	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 0-0	65.1	1562	1635	20.83%	23.20%	55.97%	-0.66	+1.1	13
2017-09-30	Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-5	50.2	1456	1874	9.16%	12.68%	78.16%	-1.63	-2.3	9
2017-09-30	@ Cibalia	W 5-2	50.2	1874	1456	78.16%	12.68%	9.16%	+1.63	+2.3	29
2017-09-30	Inter Zapresic	W 2-0	42.1	1789	1464	81.74%	10.68%	7.58%	+1.84	+1.7	20
2017-09-30	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-2	42.1	1464	1789	7.58%	10.68%	81.74%	-1.84	-1.7	11
2017-10-01	Istra 1961	W 2-1	55.4	1692	1537	65.69%	19.19%	15.12%	+1.04	+2.0	20
2017-10-01	@ Osijek	L 1-2	55.4	1537	1692	15.12%	19.19%	65.69%	-1.04	-2.0	6
2017-10-01	Rijeka	L 1-5	50.3	1554	1847	15.10%	19.17%	65.73%	-1.04	-6.3	7
2017-10-01	@ Rudes	W 5-1	50.3	1847	1554	65.73%	19.17%	15.10%	+1.04	+6.3	25
2017-10-13	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	56.7	1548	1634	34.25%	26.45%	39.30%	-0.08	-4.6	7
2017-10-13	@ Rudes	W 1-0	56.7	1634	1548	39.30%	26.45%	34.25%	+0.08	+4.7	15
2017-10-14	Osijek	D 1-1	74.8	1877	1694	68.63%	17.76%	13.62%	+1.17	-1.6	30
2017-10-14	@ Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	74.8	1694	1877	13.62%	17.76%	68.63%	-1.17	+1.6	21
2017-10-14	Rijeka	W 1-0	67.4	1535	1853	13.68%	17.82%	68.49%	-1.16	+7.9	9
2017-10-14	@ Istra 1961	L 0-1	67.4	1853	1535	68.49%	17.82%	13.68%	+1.16	-7.9	25
2017-10-15	Cibalia	W 2-1	50.7	1791	1454	82.63%	10.18%	7.20%	+1.89	+0.8	23
2017-10-15	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	50.7	1454	1791	7.20%	10.18%	82.63%	-1.89	-0.8	9
2017-10-15	Inter Zapresic	L 1-2	63.6	1563	1462	59.39%	21.94%	18.67%	+0.79	-6.7	13
2017-10-15	@ Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	63.6	1462	1563	18.67%	21.94%	59.39%	-0.79	+6.7	14
2017-10-20	Rudes	W 3-1	54.9	1469	1543	35.94%	26.50%	37.56%	-0.03	+8.1	17
2017-10-20	@ Inter Zapresic	L 1-3	54.9	1543	1469	37.56%	26.50%	35.94%	+0.03	-8.1	7
2017-10-21	Dinamo Zagreb	D 2-2	78.2	1792	1875	34.66%	26.47%	38.87%	-0.07	+0.1	24
2017-10-21	@ Hajduk Split	D 2-2	78.2	1875	1792	38.87%	26.47%	34.66%	+0.07	-0.1	31
2017-10-21	Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	53.3	1453	1557	31.98%	26.29%	41.73%	-0.16	+5.4	12
2017-10-21	@ Cibalia	L 0-1	53.3	1557	1453	41.73%	26.29%	31.98%	+0.16	-5.4	13
2017-10-22	Istra 1961	W 1-0	50.8	1639	1543	58.78%	22.18%	19.04%	+0.77	+2.7	18
2017-10-22	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	50.8	1543	1639	19.04%	22.18%	58.78%	-0.77	-2.7	9
2017-10-22	Osijek	L 1-2	73.2	1845	1696	65.00%	19.51%	15.48%	+1.01	-7.2	25
2017-10-22	@ Rijeka	W 2-1	73.2	1696	1845	15.48%	19.51%	65.00%	-1.01	+7.2	24
2017-10-28	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-0	49.6	1703	1642	54.53%	23.68%	21.79%	+0.61	+8.6	27
2017-10-28	@ Osijek	L 0-3	49.6	1642	1703	21.79%	23.68%	54.53%	-0.61	-8.6	18
2017-10-28	Rijeka	W 3-1	59.7	1875	1838	51.37%	24.59%	24.03%	+0.49	+5.6	34
2017-10-28	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	59.7	1838	1875	24.03%	24.59%	51.37%	-0.49	-5.6	25
2017-10-29	Cibalia	D 1-1	63.2	1535	1459	56.40%	23.05%	20.55%	+0.68	-1.0	8
2017-10-29	@ Rudes	D 1-1	63.2	1459	1535	20.55%	23.05%	56.40%	-0.68	+1.0	13
2017-10-29	Hajduk Split	D 0-0	67.8	1551	1792	18.45%	21.80%	59.75%	-0.80	+1.3	14
2017-10-29	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	67.8	1792	1551	59.75%	21.80%	18.45%	+0.80	-1.3	25
2017-10-30	Inter Zapresic	D 1-1	64.0	1540	1477	54.71%	23.62%	21.67%	+0.61	-0.9	10
2017-10-30	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	64.0	1477	1540	21.67%	23.62%	54.71%	-0.61	+0.9	18
2017-11-03	Osijek	W 3-1	65.6	1478	1712	18.98%	22.14%	58.88%	-0.77	+11.5	21
2017-11-03	@ Inter Zapresic	L 1-3	65.6	1712	1478	58.88%	22.14%	18.98%	+0.77	-11.5	27
2017-11-04	Istra 1961	L 1-4	51.0	1460	1539	35.15%	26.48%	38.36%	-0.05	-10.9	13
2017-11-04	@ Cibalia	W 4-1	51.0	1539	1460	38.36%	26.48%	35.15%	+0.05	+11.0	13
2017-11-04	Rudes	L 2-3	78.8	1791	1534	75.98%	13.88%	10.14%	+1.52	-7.6	25
2017-11-04	@ Hajduk Split	W 3-2	78.8	1534	1791	10.14%	13.88%	75.98%	-1.52	+7.6	11
2017-11-05	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	50.9	1552	1881	13.15%	17.28%	69.57%	-1.21	-1.8	14
2017-11-05	@ Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	50.9	1881	1552	69.57%	17.28%	13.15%	+1.21	+1.8	37
2017-11-05	Rijeka	W 1-0	65.4	1633	1832	21.72%	23.64%	54.64%	-0.61	+6.7	21
2017-11-05	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	65.4	1832	1633	54.64%	23.64%	21.72%	+0.61	-6.7	25
2017-11-17	Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	62.8	1542	1551	45.16%	25.88%	28.96%	+0.28	-5.4	11
2017-11-17	@ Rudes	W 2-1	62.8	1551	1542	28.96%	25.88%	45.16%	-0.28	+5.4	17
2017-11-18	Cibalia	D 1-1	71.2	1700	1449	75.52%	14.14%	10.35%	+1.49	-1.8	28
2017-11-18	@ Osijek	D 1-1	71.2	1449	1700	10.35%	14.14%	75.52%	-1.49	+1.8	14
2017-11-18	Inter Zapresic	D 0-0	71.0	1826	1490	82.54%	10.22%	7.24%	+1.88	-2.3	26
2017-11-18	@ Rijeka	D 0-0	71.0	1490	1826	7.24%	10.22%	82.54%	-1.88	+2.3	22
2017-11-19	Hajduk Split	L 1-3	56.0	1550	1783	19.04%	22.17%	58.79%	-0.77	-4.5	13
2017-11-19	@ Istra 1961	W 3-1	56.0	1783	1550	58.79%	22.17%	19.04%	+0.77	+4.5	28
2017-11-19	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-0	46.4	1882	1640	74.71%	14.57%	10.72%	+1.45	+2.6	40
2017-11-19	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	46.4	1640	1882	10.72%	14.57%	74.71%	-1.45	-2.6	21
2017-11-24	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	67.2	1492	1637	27.03%	25.48%	47.49%	-0.36	+0.5	23
2017-11-24	@ Inter Zapresic	D 1-1	67.2	1637	1492	47.49%	25.48%	27.03%	+0.36	-0.6	22
2017-11-25	Istra 1961	W 2-0	48.6	1556	1546	47.80%	25.42%	26.78%	+0.37	+7.2	20
2017-11-25	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	48.6	1546	1556	26.78%	25.42%	47.80%	-0.37	-7.2	13
2017-11-25	Osijek	D 1-1	73.1	1787	1698	57.97%	22.48%	19.55%	+0.73	-1.1	29
2017-11-25	@ Hajduk Split	D 1-1	73.1	1698	1787	19.55%	22.48%	57.97%	-0.73	+1.1	29
2017-11-26	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	74.7	1536	1885	12.13%	16.18%	71.69%	-1.31	+1.7	12
2017-11-26	@ Rudes	D 1-1	74.7	1885	1536	71.69%	16.18%	12.13%	+1.31	-1.7	41
2017-11-26	Rijeka	L 1-2	53.7	1451	1823	11.02%	14.93%	74.04%	-1.42	-1.4	14
2017-11-26	@ Cibalia	W 2-1	53.7	1823	1451	74.04%	14.93%	11.02%	+1.42	+1.4	29
2017-12-02	Hajduk Split	L 1-2	70.8	1825	1786	51.51%	24.56%	23.93%	+0.50	-6.0	29
2017-12-02	@ Rijeka	W 2-1	70.8	1786	1825	23.93%	24.56%	51.51%	-0.50	+6.0	32
2017-12-02	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	47.7	1699	1563	63.53%	20.19%	16.28%	+0.95	+4.3	32
2017-12-02	@ Osijek	L 0-2	47.7	1563	1699	16.28%	20.19%	63.53%	-0.95	-4.3	20
2017-12-03	Cibalia	L 1-3	64.3	1636	1449	69.15%	17.49%	13.36%	+1.19	-13.0	22
2017-12-03	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-1	64.3	1449	1636	13.36%	17.49%	69.15%	-1.19	+13.0	17
2017-12-03	Inter Zapresic	W 1-0	45.5	1883	1493	86.26%	8.11%	5.64%	+2.14	+0.7	44
2017-12-03	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	45.5	1493	1883	5.64%	8.11%	86.26%	-2.14	-0.6	23
2017-12-04	Rudes	W 2-1	57.0	1539	1538	46.48%	25.66%	27.85%	+0.32	+3.7	16
2017-12-04	@ Istra 1961	L 1-2	57.0	1538	1539	27.85%	25.66%	46.48%	-0.32	-3.7	12
2017-12-08	Cibalia	W 3-2	56.6	1492	1462	50.41%	24.84%	24.75%	+0.46	+3.2	26
2017-12-08	@ Inter Zapresic	L 2-3	56.6	1462	1492	24.75%	24.84%	50.41%	-0.46	-3.2	17
2017-12-09	Istra 1961	W 5-1	45.3	1884	1542	82.97%	9.98%	7.05%	+1.91	+2.5	47
2017-12-09	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-5	45.3	1542	1884	7.05%	9.98%	82.97%	-1.91	-2.5	16
2017-12-09	Rudes	W 3-0	44.3	1704	1534	67.26%	18.43%	14.31%	+1.11	+5.4	35
2017-12-09	@ Osijek	L 0-3	44.3	1534	1704	14.31%	18.43%	67.26%	-1.11	-5.4	12
2017-12-10	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	53.2	1623	1792	24.51%	24.76%	50.73%	-0.47	-6.6	22
2017-12-10	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-0	53.2	1792	1623	50.73%	24.76%	24.51%	+0.47	+6.6	35
2017-12-10	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	45.3	1819	1559	76.27%	13.73%	10.01%	+1.53	+2.4	32
2017-12-10	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	45.3	1559	1819	10.01%	13.73%	76.27%	-1.53	-2.4	20
2017-12-16	Cibalia	W 1-0	44.6	1886	1459	88.38%	6.89%	4.73%	+2.31	+0.5	50
2017-12-16	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	44.6	1459	1886	4.73%	6.89%	88.38%	-2.31	-0.5	17
2017-12-16	Osijek	D 1-1	70.3	1540	1709	24.48%	24.75%	50.77%	-0.47	+0.7	17
2017-12-16	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	70.3	1709	1540	50.77%	24.75%	24.48%	+0.47	-0.7	36
2017-12-17	Inter Zapresic	W 5-0	41.6	1799	1495	80.07%	11.62%	8.31%	+1.74	+4.5	38
2017-12-17	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-5	41.6	1495	1799	8.31%	11.62%	80.07%	-1.74	-4.5	26
2017-12-17	Rudes	W 3-0	42.2	1821	1529	79.11%	12.16%	8.74%	+1.68	+3.0	35
2017-12-17	@ Rijeka	L 0-3	42.2	1529	1821	8.74%	12.16%	79.11%	-1.68	-3.0	12
2017-12-18	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	74.1	1556	1617	37.93%	26.50%	35.58%	+0.04	-0.0	21
2017-12-18	@ Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	74.1	1617	1556	35.58%	26.50%	37.93%	-0.04	+0.0	23
2018-02-09	Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	59.6	1491	1556	37.11%	26.51%	36.38%	+0.01	-0.0	27
2018-02-09	@ Inter Zapresic	D 0-0	59.6	1556	1491	36.38%	26.51%	37.11%	-0.01	+0.0	22
2018-02-10	Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-4	63.3	1708	1887	23.59%	24.43%	51.97%	-0.51	-5.0	36
2018-02-10	@ Osijek	W 4-2	63.3	1887	1708	51.97%	24.43%	23.59%	+0.51	+5.0	53
2018-02-10	Istra 1961	W 4-0	42.3	1824	1541	78.37%	12.57%	9.07%	+1.64	+4.1	38
2018-02-10	@ Rijeka	L 0-4	42.3	1541	1824	9.07%	12.57%	78.37%	-1.64	-4.1	17
2018-02-11	Hajduk Split	L 0-5	43.7	1458	1804	12.30%	16.37%	71.32%	-1.29	-7.3	17
2018-02-11	@ Cibalia	W 5-0	43.7	1804	1458	71.32%	16.37%	12.30%	+1.29	+7.3	41
2018-02-11	Rudes	D 2-2	74.5	1617	1526	58.19%	22.40%	19.41%	+0.74	-0.8	24
2018-02-11	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	74.5	1526	1617	19.41%	22.40%	58.19%	-0.74	+0.8	13
2018-02-16	Inter Zapresic	W 2-0	44.5	1527	1491	51.24%	24.63%	24.13%	+0.49	+6.5	16
2018-02-16	@ Rudes	L 0-2	44.5	1491	1527	24.13%	24.63%	51.24%	-0.49	-6.5	27
2018-02-17	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 1-0	57.1	1536	1616	35.17%	26.49%	38.34%	-0.05	+5.1	20
2018-02-17	@ Istra 1961	L 0-1	57.1	1616	1536	38.34%	26.49%	35.17%	+0.05	-5.1	24
2018-02-17	Rijeka	W 2-1	69.0	1704	1828	29.35%	25.95%	44.70%	-0.26	+5.4	39
2018-02-17	@ Osijek	L 1-2	69.0	1828	1704	44.70%	25.95%	29.35%	+0.26	-5.4	38
2018-02-18	Cibalia	W 2-0	41.6	1556	1451	59.93%	21.72%	18.35%	+0.81	+5.0	25
2018-02-18	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	41.6	1451	1556	18.35%	21.72%	59.93%	-0.81	-5.0	17
2018-02-18	Hajduk Split	L 0-1	66.4	1892	1811	56.98%	22.85%	20.17%	+0.70	-6.9	53
2018-02-18	@ Dinamo Zagreb	W 1-0	66.4	1811	1892	20.17%	22.85%	56.98%	-0.70	+6.9	44
2018-02-24	Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	68.4	1818	1561	75.96%	13.89%	10.14%	+1.51	-8.5	44
2018-02-24	@ Hajduk Split	W 1-0	68.4	1561	1818	10.14%	13.89%	75.96%	-1.51	+8.5	28
2018-03-02	Cibalia	D 0-0	58.7	1541	1446	58.72%	22.20%	19.08%	+0.76	-1.2	21
2018-03-02	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	58.7	1446	1541	19.08%	22.20%	58.72%	-0.76	+1.2	18
2018-03-03	Rudes	W 1-0	47.8	1809	1533	77.73%	12.92%	9.35%	+1.61	+1.2	47
2018-03-03	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	47.8	1533	1809	9.35%	12.92%	77.73%	-1.61	-1.2	16
2018-03-04	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-1	52.9	1823	1611	71.68%	16.19%	12.13%	+1.31	+2.7	41
2018-03-04	@ Rijeka	L 1-3	52.9	1611	1823	12.13%	16.19%	71.68%	-1.31	-2.7	24
2018-03-04	Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	47.6	1885	1570	80.97%	11.11%	7.92%	+1.79	+1.0	56
2018-03-04	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	47.6	1570	1885	7.92%	11.11%	80.97%	-1.79	-1.0	28
2018-03-07	Dinamo Zagreb	W 4-1	61.1	1825	1886	37.86%	26.50%	35.65%	+0.04	+11.1	44
2018-03-07	@ Rijeka	L 1-4	61.1	1886	1825	35.65%	26.50%	37.86%	-0.04	-11.1	56
2018-03-09	Rudes	W 2-0	47.5	1569	1532	51.35%	24.60%	24.05%	+0.49	+6.5	31
2018-03-09	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	47.5	1532	1569	24.05%	24.60%	51.35%	-0.49	-6.5	16
2018-03-10	Istra 1961	W 3-2	58.9	1810	1540	77.21%	13.21%	9.58%	+1.58	+1.1	50
2018-03-10	@ Hajduk Split	L 2-3	58.9	1540	1810	9.58%	13.21%	77.21%	-1.58	-1.1	21
2018-03-10	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-4	69.1	1875	1608	76.91%	13.37%	9.72%	+1.56	-19.8	56
2018-03-10	@ Dinamo Zagreb	W 4-1	69.1	1608	1875	9.72%	13.37%	76.91%	-1.56	+19.8	27
2018-03-11	Osijek	D 1-1	69.4	1447	1709	17.03%	20.77%	62.20%	-0.90	+1.3	19
2018-03-11	@ Cibalia	D 1-1	69.4	1709	1447	62.20%	20.77%	17.03%	+0.90	-1.3	40
2018-03-11	Rijeka	L 0-3	44.0	1484	1836	11.95%	15.99%	72.06%	-1.32	-4.4	27
2018-03-11	@ Inter Zapresic	W 3-0	44.0	1836	1484	72.06%	15.99%	11.95%	+1.32	+4.4	47
2018-03-14	Inter Zapresic	D 1-1	71.8	1708	1480	73.28%	15.34%	11.38%	+1.38	-1.8	41
2018-03-14	@ Osijek	D 1-1	71.8	1480	1708	11.38%	15.34%	73.28%	-1.38	+1.8	28
2018-03-14	Rudes	D 1-1	61.5	1449	1525	35.56%	26.50%	37.94%	-0.04	+0.1	20
2018-03-14	@ Cibalia	D 1-1	61.5	1525	1449	37.94%	26.50%	35.56%	+0.04	-0.1	17
2018-03-16	Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	59.8	1539	1575	41.33%	26.32%	32.34%	+0.15	+4.2	24
2018-03-16	@ Istra 1961	L 1-2	59.8	1575	1539	32.34%	26.32%	41.33%	-0.15	-4.2	31
2018-03-17	Inter Zapresic	L 2-3	72.6	1628	1481	64.72%	19.64%	15.64%	+1.00	-6.8	27
2018-03-17	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-2	72.6	1481	1628	15.64%	19.64%	64.72%	-1.00	+6.8	31
2018-03-17	Rudes	W 2-0	43.5	1855	1525	82.10%	10.47%	7.43%	+1.86	+1.7	59
2018-03-17	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	43.5	1525	1855	7.43%	10.47%	82.10%	-1.86	-1.7	17
2018-03-18	Cibalia	W 5-1	43.0	1841	1449	86.34%	8.06%	5.60%	+2.15	+1.9	50
2018-03-18	@ Rijeka	L 1-5	43.0	1449	1841	5.60%	8.06%	86.34%	-2.15	-1.9	20
2018-03-18	Hajduk Split	D 3-3	82.0	1706	1812	31.68%	26.26%	42.06%	-0.17	+0.2	42
2018-03-18	@ Osijek	D 3-3	82.0	1812	1706	42.06%	26.26%	31.68%	+0.17	-0.2	51
2018-03-24	Istra 1961	W 1-0	52.1	1488	1543	38.65%	26.48%	34.87%	+0.06	+4.7	34
2018-03-24	@ Inter Zapresic	L 0-1	52.1	1543	1488	34.87%	26.48%	38.65%	-0.06	-4.7	24
2018-03-29	Istra 1961	W 2-1	57.2	1524	1539	44.34%	26.00%	29.66%	+0.25	+3.9	20
2018-03-29	@ Rudes	L 1-2	57.2	1539	1524	29.66%	26.00%	44.34%	-0.25	-3.9	24
2018-03-30	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	65.5	1447	1621	24.00%	24.58%	51.42%	-0.49	+0.8	21
2018-03-30	@ Cibalia	D 1-1	65.5	1621	1447	51.42%	24.58%	24.00%	+0.49	-0.8	28
2018-03-30	Slaven Belupo	W 3-0	46.1	1706	1571	63.37%	20.26%	16.37%	+0.95	+6.3	45
2018-03-30	@ Osijek	L 0-3	46.1	1571	1706	16.37%	20.26%	63.37%	-0.95	-6.4	31
2018-03-31	Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	69.8	1493	1857	11.41%	15.38%	73.21%	-1.38	+1.9	35
2018-03-31	@ Inter Zapresic	D 0-0	69.8	1857	1493	73.21%	15.38%	11.41%	+1.38	-2.0	60
2018-03-31	Rijeka	D 1-1	72.4	1811	1843	42.04%	26.26%	31.70%	+0.17	-0.3	52
2018-03-31	@ Hajduk Split	D 1-1	72.4	1843	1811	31.70%	26.26%	42.04%	-0.17	+0.3	51
2018-04-03	Osijek	D 1-1	70.9	1620	1712	33.48%	26.41%	40.11%	-0.11	+0.2	29
2018-04-03	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	70.9	1712	1620	40.11%	26.41%	33.48%	+0.11	-0.2	46
2018-04-06	Inter Zapresic	W 3-0	43.3	1448	1495	39.78%	26.43%	33.79%	+0.10	+12.6	24
2018-04-06	@ Cibalia	L 0-3	43.3	1495	1448	33.79%	26.43%	39.78%	-0.10	-12.6	35
2018-04-07	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 1-0	50.9	1811	1621	69.49%	17.32%	13.19%	+1.21	+1.8	55
2018-04-07	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	50.9	1621	1811	13.19%	17.32%	69.49%	-1.21	-1.8	29
2018-04-07	Osijek	W 1-0	62.8	1528	1712	23.03%	24.21%	52.75%	-0.54	+6.5	23
2018-04-07	@ Rudes	L 0-1	62.8	1712	1528	52.75%	24.21%	23.03%	+0.54	-6.5	46
2018-04-08	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	45.4	1535	1855	13.56%	17.69%	68.75%	-1.17	-6.7	24
2018-04-08	@ Istra 1961	W 4-0	45.4	1855	1535	68.75%	17.69%	13.56%	+1.17	+6.7	63
2018-04-08	Rijeka	L 1-3	55.0	1565	1843	15.96%	19.92%	64.11%	-0.98	-3.7	31
2018-04-08	@ Slaven Belupo	W 3-1	55.0	1843	1565	64.11%	19.92%	15.96%	+0.98	+3.7	54
2018-04-13	Istra 1961	W 2-0	45.9	1706	1528	68.14%	18.00%	13.86%	+1.15	+3.6	49
2018-04-13	@ Osijek	L 0-2	45.9	1528	1706	13.86%	18.00%	68.14%	-1.15	-3.6	24
2018-04-13	Rijeka	W 4-2	73.9	1534	1847	13.97%	18.10%	67.93%	-1.14	+11.5	26
2018-04-13	@ Rudes	L 2-4	73.9	1847	1534	67.93%	18.10%	13.97%	+1.14	-11.5	54
2018-04-14	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	44.6	1460	1862	9.80%	13.48%	76.71%	-1.55	-2.4	24
2018-04-14	@ Cibalia	W 2-0	44.6	1862	1460	76.71%	13.48%	9.80%	+1.55	+2.4	66
2018-04-14	Hajduk Split	L 0-3	44.4	1482	1813	13.02%	17.14%	69.84%	-1.22	-4.9	35
2018-04-14	@ Inter Zapresic	W 3-0	44.4	1813	1482	69.84%	17.14%	13.02%	+1.22	+4.9	58
2018-04-15	Slaven Belupo	W 5-2	54.9	1619	1561	54.02%	23.83%	22.14%	+0.59	+6.4	32
2018-04-15	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 2-5	54.9	1561	1619	22.14%	23.83%	54.02%	-0.59	-6.4	31
2018-04-17	Rijeka	L 0-1	50.9	1524	1835	14.07%	18.20%	67.73%	-1.13	-1.9	24
2018-04-17	@ Istra 1961	W 1-0	50.9	1835	1524	67.73%	18.20%	14.07%	+1.13	+2.0	57
2018-04-18	Cibalia	W 4-0	39.5	1818	1458	84.26%	9.25%	6.49%	+2.00	+2.7	61
2018-04-18	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-4	39.5	1458	1818	6.49%	9.25%	84.26%	-2.00	-2.7	24
2018-04-18	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	62.3	1546	1625	35.16%	26.49%	38.35%	-0.05	-4.5	26
2018-04-18	@ Rudes	W 2-1	62.3	1625	1546	38.35%	26.49%	35.16%	+0.05	+4.5	35
2018-04-18	Osijek	L 0-1	67.7	1864	1709	65.63%	19.22%	15.15%	+1.04	-7.7	66
2018-04-18	@ Dinamo Zagreb	W 1-0	67.7	1709	1864	15.15%	19.22%	65.63%	-1.04	+7.7	52
2018-04-19	Inter Zapresic	D 3-3	74.6	1555	1477	56.53%	23.01%	20.47%	+0.68	-0.6	32
2018-04-19	@ Slaven Belupo	D 3-3	74.6	1477	1555	20.47%	23.01%	56.53%	-0.68	+0.6	36
2018-04-21	Osijek	W 1-0	53.7	1837	1717	61.68%	21.00%	17.32%	+0.88	+2.5	60
2018-04-21	@ Rijeka	L 0-1	53.7	1717	1837	17.32%	21.00%	61.68%	-0.88	-2.5	52
2018-04-22	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	68.4	1821	1856	41.40%	26.32%	32.28%	+0.15	-5.0	61
2018-04-22	@ Hajduk Split	W 2-1	68.4	1856	1821	32.28%	26.32%	41.40%	-0.15	+5.1	69
2018-04-22	Istra 1961	D 0-0	64.4	1630	1522	60.15%	21.63%	18.22%	+0.82	-1.3	36
2018-04-22	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 0-0	64.4	1522	1630	18.22%	21.63%	60.15%	-0.82	+1.3	25
2018-04-23	Rudes	D 1-1	63.2	1478	1541	37.51%	26.50%	35.99%	+0.02	-0.0	37
2018-04-23	@ Inter Zapresic	D 1-1	63.2	1541	1478	35.99%	26.50%	37.51%	-0.02	+0.0	27
2018-04-23	Slaven Belupo	L 1-3	53.2	1455	1554	32.52%	26.34%	41.14%	-0.14	-7.3	24
2018-04-23	@ Cibalia	W 3-1	53.2	1554	1455	41.14%	26.34%	32.52%	+0.14	+7.3	35
2018-04-27	Inter Zapresic	L 2-4	62.2	1524	1478	52.51%	24.28%	23.21%	+0.53	-9.4	25
2018-04-27	@ Istra 1961	W 4-2	62.2	1478	1524	23.21%	24.28%	52.51%	-0.53	+9.4	40
2018-04-28	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	65.2	1715	1628	57.60%	22.62%	19.78%	+0.72	-6.9	52
2018-04-28	@ Osijek	W 1-0	65.2	1628	1715	19.78%	22.62%	57.60%	-0.72	+7.0	39
2018-04-28	Rijeka	L 0-1	64.7	1861	1840	49.34%	25.09%	25.56%	+0.42	-6.1	69
2018-04-28	@ Dinamo Zagreb	W 1-0	64.7	1840	1861	25.56%	25.09%	49.34%	-0.42	+6.2	63
2018-04-29	Cibalia	W 3-2	55.5	1541	1448	58.49%	22.29%	19.22%	+0.75	+2.5	30
2018-04-29	@ Rudes	L 2-3	55.5	1448	1541	19.22%	22.29%	58.49%	-0.75	-2.5	24
2018-04-29	Hajduk Split	D 0-0	68.3	1562	1815	17.53%	21.15%	61.32%	-0.87	+1.4	36
2018-04-29	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	68.3	1815	1562	61.32%	21.15%	17.53%	+0.87	-1.4	62
2018-05-04	Dinamo Zagreb	D 2-2	79.7	1563	1855	15.11%	19.18%	65.72%	-1.04	+1.1	37
2018-05-04	@ Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	79.7	1855	1563	65.72%	19.18%	15.11%	+1.04	-1.1	70
2018-05-04	Rijeka	W 1-0	65.8	1635	1846	20.78%	23.17%	56.04%	-0.66	+6.8	42
2018-05-04	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	65.8	1846	1635	56.04%	23.17%	20.78%	+0.66	-6.8	63
2018-05-05	Istra 1961	D 1-1	60.9	1445	1514	36.65%	26.51%	36.84%	+0.00	+0.0	25
2018-05-05	@ Cibalia	D 1-1	60.9	1514	1445	36.84%	26.51%	36.65%	+0.00	-0.0	26
2018-05-05	Osijek	W 1-0	62.8	1487	1708	20.00%	22.75%	57.25%	-0.71	+6.9	43
2018-05-05	@ Inter Zapresic	L 0-1	62.8	1708	1487	57.25%	22.75%	20.00%	+0.71	-6.9	52
2018-05-06	Hajduk Split	W 2-1	72.0	1544	1814	16.44%	20.32%	63.24%	-0.94	+7.0	33
2018-05-06	@ Rudes	L 1-2	72.0	1814	1544	63.24%	20.32%	16.44%	+0.94	-7.0	62
2018-05-08	Dinamo Zagreb	W 3-1	68.5	1642	1854	20.65%	23.10%	56.25%	-0.67	+11.1	45
2018-05-08	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-3	68.5	1854	1642	56.25%	23.10%	20.65%	+0.67	-11.1	70
2018-05-08	Inter Zapresic	W 5-1	44.5	1839	1494	83.19%	9.86%	6.96%	+1.93	+2.5	66
2018-05-08	@ Rijeka	L 1-5	44.5	1494	1839	6.96%	9.86%	83.19%	-1.93	-2.5	43
2018-05-09	Cibalia	W 3-1	47.4	1701	1445	75.87%	13.94%	10.18%	+1.51	+2.1	55
2018-05-09	@ Osijek	L 1-3	47.4	1445	1701	10.18%	13.94%	75.87%	-1.51	-2.1	25
2018-05-09	Hajduk Split	L 1-5	49.6	1514	1807	15.09%	19.16%	65.75%	-1.05	-6.3	26
2018-05-09	@ Istra 1961	W 5-1	49.6	1807	1514	65.75%	19.16%	15.09%	+1.05	+6.3	65
2018-05-10	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	49.9	1551	1564	44.56%	25.97%	29.47%	+0.26	+7.8	36
2018-05-10	@ Rudes	L 0-2	49.9	1564	1551	29.47%	25.97%	44.56%	-0.26	-7.8	37
2018-05-13	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	58.2	1492	1653	25.28%	25.01%	49.71%	-0.43	-3.4	43
2018-05-13	@ Inter Zapresic	W 2-1	58.2	1653	1492	49.71%	25.01%	25.28%	+0.43	+3.4	48
2018-05-13	Osijek	D 1-1	73.5	1813	1703	60.55%	21.47%	17.98%	+0.83	-1.2	66
2018-05-13	@ Hajduk Split	D 1-1	73.5	1703	1813	17.98%	21.47%	60.55%	-0.83	+1.2	56
2018-05-13	Rijeka	D 0-0	69.6	1443	1841	9.93%	13.64%	76.43%	-1.54	+2.1	26
2018-05-13	@ Cibalia	D 0-0	69.6	1841	1443	76.43%	13.64%	9.93%	+1.54	-2.1	67
2018-05-14	Dinamo Zagreb	W 1-0	66.9	1558	1843	15.57%	19.58%	64.85%	-1.01	+7.6	39
2018-05-14	@ Rudes	L 0-1	66.9	1843	1558	64.85%	19.58%	15.57%	+1.01	-7.6	70
2018-05-14	Istra 1961	W 1-0	49.0	1556	1508	52.80%	24.20%	23.00%	+0.54	+3.3	40
2018-05-14	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	49.0	1508	1556	23.00%	24.20%	52.80%	-0.54	-3.3	26
2018-05-18	Cibalia	W 2-1	50.3	1657	1445	71.64%	16.21%	12.15%	+1.30	+1.5	51
2018-05-18	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	50.3	1445	1657	12.15%	16.21%	71.64%	-1.30	-1.5	26
2018-05-18	Osijek	W 2-1	67.6	1560	1704	27.07%	25.49%	47.44%	-0.35	+5.6	43
2018-05-18	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	67.6	1704	1560	47.44%	25.49%	27.07%	+0.35	-5.6	56
2018-05-18	Rudes	D 1-1	65.0	1505	1566	37.77%	26.50%	35.73%	+0.03	-0.0	27
2018-05-18	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	65.0	1566	1505	35.73%	26.50%	37.77%	-0.03	+0.0	40
2018-05-19	Hajduk Split	W 3-1	60.0	1839	1812	50.07%	24.92%	25.01%	+0.45	+5.9	70
2018-05-19	@ Rijeka	L 1-3	60.0	1812	1839	25.01%	24.92%	50.07%	-0.45	-5.9	66
2018-05-19	Inter Zapresic	W 3-1	48.6	1835	1488	83.36%	9.76%	6.88%	+1.94	+1.3	73
2018-05-19	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	48.6	1488	1835	6.88%	9.76%	83.36%	-1.94	-1.3	43

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2018-03-10	9.72%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1608	4	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1875	1
2	2017-11-04	10.14%	Rudes	1534	3	@ Hajduk Split	1791	2
3	2018-02-24	10.14%	Slaven Belupo	1561	1	@ Hajduk Split	1818	0
4	2017-12-03	13.36%	Cibalia	1449	3	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1636	1
5	2017-10-14	13.68%	@ Istra 1961	1535	1	Rijeka	1853	0
6	2018-04-13	13.97%	@ Rudes	1534	4	Rijeka	1847	2
7	2018-04-18	15.15%	Osijek	1709	1	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1864	0
8	2017-10-22	15.48%	Osijek	1696	2	@ Rijeka	1845	1
9	2018-05-14	15.57%	@ Rudes	1558	1	Dinamo Zagreb	1843	0
10	2018-03-17	15.64%	Inter Zapresic	1481	3	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1628	2
11	2018-05-06	16.44%	@ Rudes	1544	2	Hajduk Split	1814	1
12	2017-08-05	16.61%	Inter Zapresic	1459	2	@ Rudes	1590	0
13	2017-10-15	18.67%	Inter Zapresic	1462	2	@ Slaven Belupo	1563	1
14	2017-11-03	18.98%	@ Inter Zapresic	1478	3	Osijek	1712	1
15	2017-08-27	19.15%	@ Cibalia	1463	2	Osijek	1695	1
16	2017-08-18	19.67%	Cibalia	1456	1	@ Istra 1961	1544	0
17	2018-04-28	19.78%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1628	1	@ Osijek	1715	0
18	2018-05-05	20.00%	@ Inter Zapresic	1487	1	Osijek	1708	0
19	2018-02-18	20.17%	Hajduk Split	1811	1	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1892	0
20	2018-05-08	20.65%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1642	3	Dinamo Zagreb	1854	1
21	2018-05-04	20.78%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1635	1	Rijeka	1846	0
22	2017-11-05	21.72%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1633	1	Rijeka	1832	0
23	2018-04-07	23.03%	@ Rudes	1528	1	Osijek	1712	0
24	2018-04-27	23.21%	Inter Zapresic	1478	4	@ Istra 1961	1524	2
25	2017-12-02	23.93%	Hajduk Split	1786	2	@ Rijeka	1825	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2018-03-10	19.76	Lokomotiva Zagreb	4	1608	9.72%	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1	1875	76.91%	13.37%
2	2017-08-13	15.98	@ Cibalia	3	1440	28.08%	Rudes	0	1576	46.21%	25.71%
3	2017-08-05	14.03	Inter Zapresic	2	1459	16.61%	@ Rudes	0	1590	62.94%	20.45%
4	2017-12-03	13.02	Cibalia	3	1449	13.36%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1636	69.15%	17.49%
5	2018-04-06	12.60	@ Cibalia	3	1448	39.78%	Inter Zapresic	0	1495	33.79%	26.43%
6	2017-11-03	11.54	@ Inter Zapresic	3	1478	18.98%	Osijek	1	1712	58.88%	22.14%
7	2018-04-13	11.50	@ Rudes	4	1534	13.97%	Rijeka	2	1847	67.93%	18.10%
8	2018-05-08	11.14	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1642	20.65%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1854	56.25%	23.10%
9	2018-03-07	11.07	@ Rijeka	4	1825	37.86%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1886	35.65%	26.50%
10	2017-11-04	10.95	Istra 1961	4	1539	38.36%	@ Cibalia	1	1460	35.15%	26.48%
11	2017-08-11	10.69	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1853	29.46%	@ Rijeka	0	1840	44.57%	25.97%
12	2017-09-17	10.05	Rijeka	2	1838	32.51%	@ Hajduk Split	0	1800	41.16%	26.34%
13	2017-08-20	9.77	Hajduk Split	4	1794	58.89%	@ Rudes	0	1560	18.98%	22.14%
14	2018-04-27	9.43	Inter Zapresic	4	1478	23.21%	@ Istra 1961	2	1524	52.51%	24.28%
15	2017-10-28	8.62	@ Osijek	3	1703	54.53%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1642	21.79%	23.68%
16	2018-02-24	8.49	Slaven Belupo	1	1561	10.14%	@ Hajduk Split	0	1818	75.96%	13.89%
17	2017-10-20	8.13	@ Inter Zapresic	3	1469	35.94%	Rudes	1	1543	37.56%	26.50%
18	2017-10-14	7.92	@ Istra 1961	1	1535	13.68%	Rijeka	0	1853	68.49%	17.82%
19	2018-05-10	7.79	@ Rudes	2	1551	44.56%	Slaven Belupo	0	1564	29.47%	25.97%
20	2018-04-18	7.68	Osijek	1	1709	15.15%	@ Dinamo Zagreb	0	1864	65.63%	19.22%
21	2017-11-04	7.60	Rudes	3	1534	10.14%	@ Hajduk Split	2	1791	75.98%	13.88%
22	2018-05-14	7.60	@ Rudes	1	1558	15.57%	Dinamo Zagreb	0	1843	64.85%	19.58%
23	2017-08-27	7.49	Dinamo Zagreb	3	1866	58.89%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1632	18.98%	22.13%
24	2018-02-11	7.30	Hajduk Split	5	1804	71.32%	@ Cibalia	0	1458	12.30%	16.37%
25	2018-04-23	7.30	Slaven Belupo	3	1554	41.14%	@ Cibalia	1	1455	32.52%	26.34%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2018-03-18	82.0	@ Osijek	3	1706	31.68%	Hajduk Split	3	1812	42.06%	26.26%
2	2017-09-24	79.8	@ Hajduk Split	2	1790	65.80%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1634	15.07%	19.14%
3	2018-05-04	79.7	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1563	15.11%	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1855	65.72%	19.18%
4	2017-11-04	78.8	Rudes	3	1534	10.14%	@ Hajduk Split	2	1791	75.98%	13.88%
5	2017-07-23	78.7	@ Inter Zapresic	2	1462	12.81%	Hajduk Split	2	1797	70.27%	16.92%
6	2017-10-21	78.2	@ Hajduk Split	2	1792	34.66%	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1875	38.87%	26.47%
7	2017-10-14	74.8	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1	1877	68.63%	Osijek	1	1694	13.62%	17.76%
8	2017-11-26	74.7	@ Rudes	1	1536	12.13%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1885	71.69%	16.18%
9	2018-04-19	74.6	@ Slaven Belupo	3	1555	56.53%	Inter Zapresic	3	1477	20.47%	23.01%
10	2018-02-11	74.5	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1617	58.19%	Rudes	2	1526	19.41%	22.40%
11	2017-12-18	74.1	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1556	37.93%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1617	35.58%	26.50%
12	2018-04-13	73.9	@ Rudes	4	1534	13.97%	Rijeka	2	1847	67.93%	18.10%
13	2017-09-23	73.7	@ Slaven Belupo	1	1561	15.41%	Rijeka	1	1848	65.15%	19.44%
14	2018-05-13	73.5	@ Hajduk Split	1	1813	60.55%	Osijek	1	1703	17.98%	21.47%
15	2017-10-22	73.2	Osijek	2	1696	15.48%	@ Rijeka	1	1845	65.00%	19.51%
16	2017-11-25	73.1	@ Hajduk Split	1	1787	57.97%	Osijek	1	1698	19.55%	22.48%
17	2017-08-26	72.8	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1565	48.42%	Rudes	2	1550	26.29%	25.29%
18	2017-07-30	72.6	@ Osijek	1	1679	24.44%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1849	50.83%	24.73%
19	2018-03-17	72.6	Inter Zapresic	3	1481	15.64%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1628	64.72%	19.64%
20	2018-03-31	72.4	@ Hajduk Split	1	1811	42.04%	Rijeka	1	1843	31.70%	26.26%
21	2018-05-06	72.0	@ Rudes	2	1544	16.44%	Hajduk Split	1	1814	63.24%	20.32%
22	2018-03-14	71.8	@ Osijek	1	1708	73.28%	Inter Zapresic	1	1480	11.38%	15.34%
23	2017-08-12	71.7	Osijek	3	1686	33.76%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1639	39.81%	26.43%
24	2017-07-16	71.3	@ Osijek	1	1680	57.95%	Rudes	1	1591	19.56%	22.49%
25	2017-11-18	71.2	@ Osijek	1	1700	75.52%	Cibalia	1	1449	10.35%	14.14%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2017-07-21	39.0	@ Dinamo Zagreb	4	1846	86.81%	Cibalia	0	1447	5.40%	7.79%
2	2018-04-18	39.5	@ Hajduk Split	4	1818	84.26%	Cibalia	0	1458	6.49%	9.25%
3	2017-09-10	40.8	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1625	66.06%	Inter Zapresic	0	1466	14.93%	19.01%
4	2017-08-20	41.1	@ Osijek	3	1690	72.23%	Inter Zapresic	0	1473	11.87%	15.90%
5	2017-12-17	41.6	@ Hajduk Split	5	1799	80.07%	Inter Zapresic	0	1495	8.31%	11.62%
6	2018-02-18	41.6	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1556	59.93%	Cibalia	0	1451	18.35%	21.72%
7	2017-09-09	41.8	@ Rijeka	7	1833	84.49%	Cibalia	0	1470	6.39%	9.12%
8	2017-09-30	42.1	@ Hajduk Split	2	1789	81.74%	Inter Zapresic	0	1464	7.58%	10.68%
9	2017-12-17	42.2	@ Rijeka	3	1821	79.11%	Rudes	0	1529	8.74%	12.16%
10	2018-02-10	42.3	@ Rijeka	4	1824	78.37%	Istra 1961	0	1541	9.07%	12.57%
11	2018-03-18	43.0	@ Rijeka	5	1841	86.34%	Cibalia	1	1449	5.60%	8.06%
12	2018-04-06	43.3	@ Cibalia	3	1448	39.78%	Inter Zapresic	0	1495	33.79%	26.43%
13	2018-03-17	43.5	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1855	82.10%	Rudes	0	1525	7.43%	10.47%
14	2018-02-11	43.7	Hajduk Split	5	1804	71.32%	@ Cibalia	0	1458	12.30%	16.37%
15	2018-03-11	44.0	Rijeka	3	1836	72.06%	@ Inter Zapresic	0	1484	11.95%	15.99%
16	2017-12-09	44.3	@ Osijek	3	1704	67.26%	Rudes	0	1534	14.31%	18.43%
17	2018-04-14	44.4	Hajduk Split	3	1813	69.84%	@ Inter Zapresic	0	1482	13.02%	17.14%
18	2017-07-15	44.5	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1844	79.11%	Istra 1961	0	1552	8.74%	12.15%
19	2017-07-29	44.5	@ Rijeka	2	1844	79.24%	Istra 1961	0	1550	8.68%	12.08%
20	2018-02-16	44.5	@ Rudes	2	1527	51.24%	Inter Zapresic	0	1491	24.13%	24.63%
21	2018-05-08	44.5	@ Rijeka	5	1839	83.19%	Inter Zapresic	1	1494	6.96%	9.86%
22	2017-12-16	44.6	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1	1886	88.38%	Cibalia	0	1459	4.73%	6.89%
23	2018-04-14	44.6	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1862	76.71%	@ Cibalia	0	1460	9.80%	13.48%
24	2017-08-20	44.7	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1864	79.48%	Slaven Belupo	0	1567	8.57%	11.94%
25	2017-08-27	44.7	@ Hajduk Split	2	1803	76.87%	Istra 1961	0	1537	9.74%	13.40%