2025-26 Hrvatska nogometna liga Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Dinamo Zagreb

86 points · 26th Title

Last Title: 2023-24

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dinamo Zagreb

14.49 points above expected

86 points · 71.51 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vukovar

10.58 points below expected

28 points · 38.58 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Dinamo Zagreb Champion	36	27	5	4	86	93	28	+65	71.51	+14.49
2	Hajduk Split	36	20	8	8	68	61	36	+25	61.32	+6.68
3	Varazdin	36	15	9	12	54	47	46	+1	46.40	+7.60
4	Rijeka	36	14	11	11	53	49	36	+13	57.85	-4.85
5	Lokomotiva Zagreb	36	10	14	12	44	40	52	-12	45.10	-1.10
6	Istra 1961	36	12	7	17	43	39	50	-11	45.62	-2.62
7	Slaven Belupo	36	10	11	15	41	46	61	-15	43.85	-2.85
8	HNK Gorica	36	11	8	17	41	40	48	-8	39.84	+1.16
9	Osijek	36	8	11	17	35	27	49	-22	43.64	-8.64
10	Vukovar	36	6	10	20	28	37	73	-36	38.58	-10.58

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Dinamo Zagreb	86	71.51	+14.49
2	Varazdin	54	46.40	+7.60
3	Hajduk Split	68	61.32	+6.68
4	HNK Gorica	41	39.84	+1.16
5	Lokomotiva Zagreb	44	45.10	-1.10

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Vukovar	28	38.58	-10.58
2	Osijek	35	43.64	-8.64
3	Rijeka	53	57.85	-4.85
4	Slaven Belupo	41	43.85	-2.85
5	Istra 1961	43	45.62	-2.62

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dinamo Zagreb	8	Feb 14 – Apr 13	1 in 44
2	Varazdin	3	Jan 26 – Feb 8	1 in 20
3	Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	Apr 11 – Apr 21	1 in 20
4	HNK Gorica	2	Sep 14 – Sep 21	1 in 19
5	Hajduk Split	4	Aug 3 – Aug 24	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Istra 1961	5	Feb 7 – Mar 6	1 in 227
2	HNK Gorica	4	Sep 28 – Oct 24	1 in 39
3	Vukovar	4	Feb 28 – Mar 21	1 in 18
4	Rijeka	2	Aug 16 – Aug 24	1 in 17
5	Varazdin	2	Dec 12 – Dec 19	1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dinamo Zagreb	23	Nov 22 – May 23	1 in 69
2	Slaven Belupo	8	Oct 4 – Dec 5	1 in 51
3	Vukovar	4	Oct 17 – Nov 7	1 in 11
4	HNK Gorica	4	Mar 7 – Apr 3	1 in 11
5	Varazdin	4	Aug 17 – Sep 13	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Osijek	11	Oct 4 – Jan 25	1 in 104
2	Rijeka	7	Aug 9 – Sep 27	1 in 70
3	Lokomotiva Zagreb	9	Oct 17 – Dec 20	1 in 37
4	Slaven Belupo	9	Mar 7 – May 4	1 in 37
5	Istra 1961	6	Jan 30 – Mar 6	1 in 25

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Dinamo Zagreb	1830	86	+14	13	11.2	+1.8
Hajduk Split	1687	68	+3	8	8.2	-0.2
Varazdin	1592	54	+11	7	6.4	+0.6
Rijeka	1644	53	+34	11	8.3	+2.7
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1535	44	-13	4	4.9	-0.9
Istra 1961	1530	43	+3	7	6.1	+0.9
HNK Gorica	1522	41	+1	6	5.8	+0.2
Slaven Belupo	1504	41	-22	4	6.3	-2.3
Osijek	1511	35	-14	4	7.1	-3.1
Vukovar	1447	28	-16	4	4.6	-0.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	DZ	HG	HS	I1	LZ	OSI	RIJ	SB	VAR	VUK
Dinamo Zagreb	—	3-0-1 8.59	3-1-0 6.72	3-0-1 8.02	2-1-1 8.41	4-0-0 7.75	2-2-0 6.69	4-0-0 8.31	3-1-0 7.85	3-0-1 8.40
HNK Gorica	1-0-3 2.57	—	1-0-3 3.34	3-0-1 4.82	2-0-2 4.80	1-2-1 5.13	1-0-3 3.62	1-1-2 4.99	0-2-2 4.72	1-3-0 5.31
Hajduk Split	0-1-3 4.24	3-0-1 7.69	—	3-0-1 6.80	3-1-0 7.13	3-0-1 7.25	1-2-1 6.03	2-2-0 7.26	1-2-1 6.97	4-0-0 7.74
Istra 1961	1-0-3 3.05	1-0-3 6.12	1-0-3 4.15	—	1-2-1 5.66	3-0-1 5.52	1-2-1 4.09	1-1-2 5.48	3-0-1 5.26	0-2-2 6.19
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-1-2 2.74	2-0-2 6.14	0-1-3 3.84	1-2-1 5.27	—	1-3-0 5.65	0-2-2 4.16	2-1-1 5.61	1-2-1 5.13	2-2-0 5.91
Osijek	0-0-4 3.33	1-2-1 5.79	1-0-3 3.75	1-0-3 5.40	0-3-1 5.27	—	2-1-1 3.89	1-2-1 5.36	0-2-2 5.21	2-1-1 5.85
Rijeka	0-2-2 4.30	3-0-1 7.38	1-2-1 4.87	1-2-1 6.87	2-2-0 6.80	1-1-2 7.08	—	2-2-0 6.90	1-0-3 6.51	3-0-1 7.54
Slaven Belupo	0-0-4 2.81	2-1-1 5.93	0-2-2 3.72	2-1-1 5.42	1-1-2 5.30	1-2-1 5.55	0-2-2 4.07	—	2-0-2 5.14	2-2-0 5.82
Varazdin	0-1-3 3.21	2-2-0 6.21	1-2-1 3.99	1-0-3 5.66	1-2-1 5.79	2-2-0 5.70	3-0-1 4.44	2-0-2 5.78	—	3-0-1 6.52
Vukovar	1-0-3 2.73	0-3-1 5.60	0-0-4 3.31	2-2-0 4.74	0-2-2 5.00	1-1-2 5.05	1-0-3 3.48	0-2-2 5.11	1-0-3 4.40	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.88	+8.8
Allowed	0.74	-11.3
Differential	0.97	+5.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.78%	6.39%	9.17%	2.22%	1.11%	1.11%	27.78%
1	6.39%	12.22%	8.33%	4.72%	1.39%	0.28%	33.33%
2	9.17%	8.33%	6.11%	0.56%	1.11%	0.28%	25.56%
3	2.22%	4.72%	0.56%	—	—	0.28%	7.78%
4	1.11%	1.39%	1.11%	—	—	—	3.61%
5+	1.11%	0.28%	0.28%	0.28%	—	—	1.94%
Total	27.78%	33.33%	25.56%	7.78%	3.61%	1.94%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.33	+0.00
SD	1.22	1.22	1.86
CV	0.91	0.91	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
1	—	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	—	11.11%
2	19.44%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	36.11%
3	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	19.44%
5+	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	44.44%	33.33%	22.22%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.58	0.78	+1.81
SD	1.52	0.80	1.75
CV	0.59	1.02	—
Max	7	2	+7
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	13.89%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	33.33%
1	8.33%	11.11%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	36.11%
2	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	22.22%
3	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	38.89%	25.00%	11.11%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.33	-0.22
SD	1.09	1.04	1.61
CV	0.98	0.78	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	2.78%	22.22%
1	8.33%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
2	16.67%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	30.56%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	—	—	5.56%
Total	38.89%	36.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.69	1.00	+0.69
SD	1.47	1.12	1.97
CV	0.87	1.12	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	36.11%
1	8.33%	11.11%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	33.33%
2	2.78%	13.89%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	16.67%	44.44%	25.00%	11.11%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	1.39	-0.31
SD	1.13	0.99	1.65
CV	1.04	0.72	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	2.78%	—	2.78%	22.22%
1	5.56%	30.56%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	50.00%
2	5.56%	11.11%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	22.22%
3	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	19.44%	44.44%	19.44%	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.44	-0.33
SD	0.82	1.23	1.66
CV	0.74	0.85	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	19.44%	5.56%	16.67%	2.78%	—	2.78%	47.22%
1	11.11%	8.33%	11.11%	2.78%	—	2.78%	36.11%
2	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	13.89%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	41.67%	13.89%	30.56%	5.56%	2.78%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.75	1.36	-0.61
SD	0.91	1.61	1.93
CV	1.21	1.18	—
Max	4	7	+4
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	11.11%	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	36.11%
1	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	19.44%
2	11.11%	2.78%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
3	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	13.89%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	38.89%	30.56%	25.00%	2.78%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	1.00	+0.36
SD	1.33	1.01	1.76
CV	0.98	1.01	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	—	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
1	5.56%	8.33%	11.11%	2.78%	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	2.78%	11.11%	13.89%	—	2.78%	2.78%	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	27.78%	38.89%	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.69	-0.42
SD	1.00	1.24	1.59
CV	0.79	0.73	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	44.44%
2	16.67%	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	38.89%	13.89%	16.67%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.31	1.28	+0.03
SD	0.89	1.14	1.58
CV	0.68	0.89	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	30.56%
1	5.56%	13.89%	13.89%	5.56%	5.56%	—	44.44%
2	2.78%	2.78%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	2.78%	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	25.00%	38.89%	11.11%	8.33%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.03	2.03	-1.00
SD	0.91	1.44	1.67
CV	0.89	0.71	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dinamo Zagreb	1830	86	71.51	+14.49	97.0%	56	59	67	72	75	82	95
Hajduk Split	1687	68	61.32	+6.68	86.0%	39	47	57	62	66	73	84
Rijeka	1644	53	57.85	-4.85	25.0%	36	46	53	58	62	70	75
Varazdin	1592	54	46.40	+7.60	88.0%	31	36	42	46	50	58	65
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1535	44	45.10	-1.10	54.0%	30	34	39	44	49	61	69
Istra 1961	1530	43	45.62	-2.62	41.0%	27	33	41	45	50	56	66
HNK Gorica	1522	41	39.84	+1.16	58.0%	23	27	34	40	46	51	59
Osijek	1511	35	43.64	-8.64	14.0%	22	32	38	43	48	58	66
Slaven Belupo	1504	41	43.85	-2.85	34.0%	25	29	38	44	48	57	61
Vukovar	1447	28	38.58	-10.58	7.0%	23	26	35	38	42	50	54

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 18.5% * Slight Edge: 18.5% to 25.5% * Clear Edge: 25.5% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+17.22%

No Edge

45.56%26.11%28.33%

Elo Value

Home Edge

142 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

060.44400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.26 goals

Neutral

-2+0.43+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.13 * Tight Race: 0.13 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.46 * Runaway: 0.46 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.6

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

77%

Dinamo Zagreb, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.50/gm

Runaway

00.260.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.97 * Some Luck: 5.97 to 8.96 * Lucky: 8.96 to 11.94 * Wild Swing: 11.94 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.24 * Close: 1.24 to 1.87 * Off: 1.87 to 2.49 * Way Off: 2.49 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

7.35 points

Some Luck

07.4719

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.60

Pinpoint

01.564

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

97.00%

Dinamo Zagreb

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

7.00%

Vukovar

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.22 * Lopsided: 0.22 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 67% * Clear Edge: 67% to 71% * Wide Edge: 71% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90% * Clear Edge: 90% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95.5% * Dominant: 95.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 58% * Some Drama: 58% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 64% * Very Frequent: 64% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 16.5% * Frequent: 16.5% to 19.5% * Very Frequent: 19.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Even

00.170.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 112.72

2.16

Strong Separation

11.852.353.5

Interquartile Edge

66%

Slight Edge

50%65%71%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

90%

Clear Edge

50%89%100%

Close Games

Expected

57%

Few

0%58%100%

Blowouts

Expected

13%

Rare

0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Lopsided: 0.46 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.79 * Near-Lock: 0.79 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 17% * Very Shaky: 17% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.59

Predictable

00.612

Matchup Imbalance

0.32

Very Even

00.390.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.05

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.55

Weak Carryover

00.570.791

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Very Upset-Prone

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

19%

Very Shaky

0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.

Probability calibration

0.88

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.18

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.050

Well Within Noise

00.1280.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Dinamo Zagreb	77.00%	17.00%	6.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Hajduk Split	14.00%	45.00%	28.00%	4.00%	5.00%	—	3.00%	—	—	1.00%
Varazdin	—	3.00%	3.00%	19.00%	25.00%	15.00%	13.00%	8.00%	10.00%	4.00%
Rijeka	7.00%	21.00%	39.00%	23.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Lokomotiva Zagreb	—	7.00%	3.00%	11.00%	12.00%	16.00%	18.00%	16.00%	7.00%	10.00%
Istra 1961	2.00%	2.00%	4.00%	14.00%	18.00%	20.00%	11.00%	9.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Slaven Belupo	—	2.00%	8.00%	9.00%	12.00%	16.00%	19.00%	12.00%	12.00%	10.00%
HNK Gorica	—	1.00%	—	7.00%	11.00%	11.00%	10.00%	21.00%	14.00%	25.00%
Osijek	—	2.00%	8.00%	8.00%	7.00%	14.00%	18.00%	14.00%	15.00%	14.00%
Vukovar	—	—	1.00%	5.00%	5.00%	7.00%	8.00%	19.00%	30.00%	25.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Dinamo Zagreb	100%	—
Hajduk Split	99.00%	1.00%
Rijeka	99.00%	1.00%
Varazdin	96.00%	4.00%
Istra 1961	90.00%	10.00%
Lokomotiva Zagreb	90.00%	10.00%
Slaven Belupo	90.00%	10.00%
Osijek	86.00%	14.00%
HNK Gorica	75.00%	25.00%
Vukovar	75.00%	25.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2025-08-01	Vukovar	W 1-0	53.6	1567	1564	45.03%	27.12%	27.84%	+0.45	+5.7	3
2025-08-01	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	53.6	1564	1567	27.84%	27.12%	45.03%	-0.45	-5.7	0
2025-08-02	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	54.9	1579	1654	34.14%	27.67%	38.18%	-0.10	-12.5	0
2025-08-02	@ Osijek	W 2-0	54.9	1654	1579	38.18%	27.67%	34.14%	+0.10	+12.5	3
2025-08-03	Istra 1961	W 2-1	58.6	1623	1560	52.76%	25.60%	21.64%	+0.87	+4.3	3
2025-08-03	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	58.6	1560	1623	21.64%	25.60%	52.76%	-0.87	-4.3	0
2025-08-03	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	48.1	1647	1542	57.69%	24.09%	18.22%	+1.16	+7.3	3
2025-08-03	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	48.1	1542	1647	18.22%	24.09%	57.69%	-1.16	-7.3	0
2025-08-04	HNK Gorica	D 1-1	65.3	1562	1503	52.22%	25.74%	22.04%	+0.84	-1.2	1
2025-08-04	@ Varazdin	D 1-1	65.3	1503	1562	22.04%	25.74%	52.22%	-0.84	+1.2	1
2025-08-08	Vukovar	W 3-0	46.9	1666	1558	58.13%	23.94%	17.94%	+1.19	+10.4	6
2025-08-08	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	46.9	1558	1666	17.94%	23.94%	58.13%	-1.19	-10.4	0
2025-08-09	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	73.0	1556	1573	42.34%	27.43%	30.24%	+0.31	-0.3	1
2025-08-09	@ Istra 1961	D 2-2	73.0	1573	1556	30.24%	27.43%	42.34%	-0.31	+0.3	4
2025-08-09	Rijeka	D 0-0	64.3	1567	1654	32.42%	27.60%	39.98%	-0.19	+0.3	1
2025-08-09	@ Osijek	D 0-0	64.3	1654	1567	39.98%	27.60%	32.42%	+0.19	-0.3	4
2025-08-10	HNK Gorica	W 2-0	45.9	1627	1504	59.80%	23.32%	16.88%	+1.29	+6.7	6
2025-08-10	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-2	45.9	1504	1627	16.88%	23.32%	59.80%	-1.29	-6.7	1
2025-08-10	Varazdin	W 3-1	56.5	1535	1561	41.10%	27.53%	31.38%	+0.25	+10.2	3
2025-08-10	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-3	56.5	1561	1535	31.38%	27.53%	41.10%	-0.25	-10.2	1
2025-08-15	Istra 1961	D 1-1	66.1	1548	1556	43.56%	27.30%	29.14%	+0.37	-0.5	1
2025-08-15	@ Vukovar	D 1-1	66.1	1556	1548	29.14%	27.30%	43.56%	-0.37	+0.5	2
2025-08-16	HNK Gorica	L 1-3	61.8	1573	1498	54.25%	25.18%	20.56%	+0.96	-15.5	4
2025-08-16	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-1	61.8	1498	1573	20.56%	25.18%	54.25%	-0.96	+15.5	4
2025-08-16	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	58.4	1654	1677	41.45%	27.50%	31.05%	+0.26	-14.5	4
2025-08-16	@ Rijeka	W 2-0	58.4	1677	1654	31.05%	27.50%	41.45%	-0.26	+14.4	9
2025-08-17	Slaven Belupo	W 3-0	46.6	1634	1545	55.89%	24.69%	19.42%	+1.05	+11.3	9
2025-08-17	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-3	46.6	1545	1634	19.42%	24.69%	55.89%	-1.05	-11.3	3
2025-08-17	Osijek	D 0-0	61.7	1550	1567	42.36%	27.42%	30.22%	+0.31	-0.5	2
2025-08-17	@ Varazdin	D 0-0	61.7	1567	1550	30.22%	27.42%	42.36%	-0.31	+0.5	2
2025-08-22	HNK Gorica	D 2-2	71.0	1547	1513	49.12%	26.44%	24.44%	+0.67	-0.7	2
2025-08-22	@ Vukovar	D 2-2	71.0	1513	1547	24.44%	26.44%	49.12%	-0.67	+0.7	5
2025-08-23	Istra 1961	W 3-0	46.4	1691	1556	61.14%	22.80%	16.07%	+1.38	+9.3	12
2025-08-23	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	46.4	1556	1691	16.07%	22.80%	61.14%	-1.38	-9.3	2
2025-08-23	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	62.4	1534	1557	41.40%	27.51%	31.10%	+0.26	-7.2	3
2025-08-23	@ Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	62.4	1557	1534	31.10%	27.51%	41.40%	-0.26	+7.2	7
2025-08-24	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	54.3	1567	1645	33.69%	27.66%	38.65%	-0.12	-12.4	2
2025-08-24	@ Osijek	W 2-0	54.3	1645	1567	38.65%	27.66%	33.69%	+0.12	+12.4	12
2025-08-24	Varazdin	L 1-2	68.8	1639	1550	55.93%	24.67%	19.39%	+1.05	-9.2	4
2025-08-24	@ Rijeka	W 2-1	68.8	1550	1639	19.39%	24.67%	55.93%	-1.05	+9.2	5
2025-08-29	HNK Gorica	W 1-0	50.1	1547	1514	48.97%	26.47%	24.56%	+0.66	+5.1	5
2025-08-29	@ Istra 1961	L 0-1	50.1	1514	1547	24.56%	26.47%	48.97%	-0.66	-5.1	5
2025-08-30	Dinamo Zagreb	D 2-2	76.2	1559	1700	25.88%	26.77%	47.35%	-0.57	+0.6	6
2025-08-30	@ Varazdin	D 2-2	76.2	1700	1559	47.35%	26.77%	25.88%	+0.57	-0.6	13
2025-08-30	Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	63.4	1546	1527	47.26%	26.79%	25.95%	+0.57	-8.0	2
2025-08-30	@ Vukovar	W 2-1	63.4	1527	1546	25.95%	26.79%	47.26%	-0.57	+8.0	6
2025-08-31	Rijeka	D 2-2	76.7	1658	1630	48.31%	26.60%	25.09%	+0.62	-0.7	13
2025-08-31	@ Hajduk Split	D 2-2	76.7	1630	1658	25.09%	26.60%	48.31%	-0.62	+0.7	5
2025-08-31	Osijek	D 1-1	66.7	1565	1555	45.90%	27.00%	27.10%	+0.49	-0.7	8
2025-08-31	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	66.7	1555	1565	27.10%	27.00%	45.90%	-0.49	+0.7	3
2025-09-12	Istra 1961	W 2-1	58.9	1535	1552	42.27%	27.43%	30.30%	+0.30	+5.7	9
2025-09-12	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	58.9	1552	1535	30.30%	27.43%	42.27%	-0.30	-5.7	5
2025-09-13	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	69.2	1631	1564	53.24%	25.47%	21.30%	+0.90	-1.2	6
2025-09-13	@ Rijeka	D 1-1	69.2	1564	1631	21.30%	25.47%	53.24%	-0.90	+1.3	9
2025-09-13	Hajduk Split	W 2-0	56.7	1560	1657	31.10%	27.51%	41.39%	-0.26	+14.4	9
2025-09-13	@ Varazdin	L 0-2	56.7	1657	1560	41.39%	27.51%	31.10%	+0.26	-14.4	13
2025-09-14	HNK Gorica	L 1-2	71.2	1700	1509	67.00%	20.19%	12.81%	+1.77	-10.6	13
2025-09-14	@ Dinamo Zagreb	W 2-1	71.2	1509	1700	12.81%	20.19%	67.00%	-1.77	+10.6	8
2025-09-14	Vukovar	W 4-0	46.5	1556	1538	46.93%	26.84%	26.23%	+0.55	+19.3	6
2025-09-14	@ Osijek	L 0-4	46.5	1538	1556	26.23%	26.84%	46.93%	-0.55	-19.3	2
2025-09-20	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	57.5	1643	1689	38.13%	27.68%	34.19%	+0.10	-13.6	13
2025-09-20	@ Hajduk Split	W 2-0	57.5	1689	1643	34.19%	27.68%	38.13%	-0.10	+13.6	16
2025-09-20	Varazdin	W 1-0	54.3	1565	1574	43.39%	27.32%	29.29%	+0.36	+5.9	12
2025-09-20	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	54.3	1574	1565	29.29%	27.32%	43.39%	-0.36	-5.9	9
2025-09-21	Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	58.2	1519	1540	41.73%	27.48%	30.80%	+0.28	+5.8	11
2025-09-21	@ HNK Gorica	L 1-2	58.2	1540	1519	30.80%	27.48%	41.73%	-0.28	-5.8	9
2025-09-21	Osijek	W 2-1	60.5	1546	1575	40.63%	27.56%	31.81%	+0.22	+5.9	8
2025-09-21	@ Istra 1961	L 1-2	60.5	1575	1546	31.81%	27.56%	40.63%	-0.22	-5.9	6
2025-09-22	Rijeka	W 3-2	69.9	1519	1629	29.48%	27.35%	43.17%	-0.35	+7.1	5
2025-09-22	@ Vukovar	L 2-3	69.9	1629	1519	43.17%	27.35%	29.48%	+0.35	-7.1	6
2025-09-26	Vukovar	W 2-1	56.8	1568	1526	50.14%	26.23%	23.63%	+0.72	+4.7	12
2025-09-26	@ Varazdin	L 1-2	56.8	1526	1568	23.63%	26.23%	50.14%	-0.72	-4.7	5
2025-09-27	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-0	50.0	1629	1571	52.16%	25.75%	22.09%	+0.84	+8.8	16
2025-09-27	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-2	50.0	1571	1629	22.09%	25.75%	52.16%	-0.84	-8.8	12
2025-09-27	Istra 1961	D 0-0	63.9	1622	1552	53.66%	25.35%	20.99%	+0.92	-1.4	7
2025-09-27	@ Rijeka	D 0-0	63.9	1552	1622	20.99%	25.35%	53.66%	-0.92	+1.4	9
2025-09-28	Slaven Belupo	W 4-1	50.4	1703	1535	64.67%	21.28%	14.05%	+1.61	+6.8	19
2025-09-28	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-4	50.4	1535	1703	14.05%	21.28%	64.67%	-1.61	-6.8	9
2025-09-28	Osijek	L 0-1	55.8	1525	1569	38.50%	27.66%	33.84%	+0.12	-7.2	11
2025-09-28	@ HNK Gorica	W 1-0	55.8	1569	1525	33.84%	27.66%	38.50%	-0.12	+7.2	9
2025-10-03	Varazdin	W 1-0	54.4	1554	1573	41.96%	27.46%	30.58%	+0.29	+6.1	12
2025-10-03	@ Istra 1961	L 0-1	54.4	1573	1554	30.58%	27.46%	41.96%	-0.29	-6.1	12
2025-10-04	Osijek	W 2-1	60.8	1528	1576	37.86%	27.68%	34.46%	+0.08	+6.3	12
2025-10-04	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	60.8	1576	1528	34.46%	27.68%	37.86%	-0.08	-6.3	9
2025-10-04	Hajduk Split	L 0-1	54.7	1522	1638	28.75%	27.25%	44.00%	-0.39	-5.8	5
2025-10-04	@ Vukovar	W 1-0	54.7	1638	1522	44.00%	27.25%	28.75%	+0.39	+5.8	19
2025-10-05	Rijeka	L 1-3	57.5	1518	1621	30.38%	27.44%	42.18%	-0.30	-9.9	11
2025-10-05	@ HNK Gorica	W 3-1	57.5	1621	1518	42.18%	27.44%	30.38%	+0.30	+9.9	10
2025-10-05	Dinamo Zagreb	W 2-1	68.6	1562	1710	25.23%	26.63%	48.14%	-0.61	+8.1	15
2025-10-05	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	68.6	1710	1562	48.14%	26.63%	25.23%	+0.61	-8.1	19
2025-10-17	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	65.4	1516	1570	36.98%	27.70%	35.32%	+0.04	-0.1	6
2025-10-17	@ Vukovar	D 1-1	65.4	1570	1516	35.32%	27.70%	36.98%	-0.04	+0.1	16
2025-10-18	Osijek	W 2-1	57.9	1701	1570	60.73%	22.96%	16.31%	+1.35	+3.2	22
2025-10-18	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	57.9	1570	1701	16.31%	22.96%	60.73%	-1.35	-3.2	9
2025-10-18	Rijeka	D 1-1	67.9	1534	1631	31.20%	27.51%	41.29%	-0.26	+0.4	13
2025-10-18	@ Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	67.9	1631	1534	41.29%	27.51%	31.20%	+0.26	-0.4	11
2025-10-19	Varazdin	L 1-3	57.4	1508	1567	36.38%	27.70%	35.92%	+0.01	-11.4	11
2025-10-19	@ HNK Gorica	W 3-1	57.4	1567	1508	35.92%	27.70%	36.38%	-0.01	+11.4	15
2025-10-19	Hajduk Split	L 0-3	52.0	1560	1644	32.86%	27.62%	39.52%	-0.17	-17.7	12
2025-10-19	@ Istra 1961	W 3-0	52.0	1644	1560	39.52%	27.62%	32.86%	+0.17	+17.7	22
2025-10-24	Hajduk Split	L 1-3	55.6	1497	1661	23.45%	26.17%	50.38%	-0.74	-8.0	11
2025-10-24	@ HNK Gorica	W 3-1	55.6	1661	1497	50.38%	26.17%	23.45%	+0.74	+8.0	25
2025-10-25	Istra 1961	L 1-2	64.9	1570	1542	48.40%	26.58%	25.02%	+0.63	-8.2	16
2025-10-25	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	64.9	1542	1570	25.02%	26.58%	48.40%	-0.63	+8.2	15
2025-10-25	Slaven Belupo	L 1-3	62.4	1578	1535	50.34%	26.18%	23.47%	+0.73	-14.6	15
2025-10-25	@ Varazdin	W 3-1	62.4	1535	1578	23.47%	26.18%	50.34%	-0.73	+14.6	16
2025-10-26	Osijek	W 4-2	59.7	1630	1567	52.85%	25.57%	21.58%	+0.87	+6.6	14
2025-10-26	@ Rijeka	L 2-4	59.7	1567	1630	21.58%	25.57%	52.85%	-0.87	-6.6	9
2025-10-27	Dinamo Zagreb	W 1-0	63.0	1516	1705	21.18%	25.42%	53.40%	-0.91	+9.4	9
2025-10-27	@ Vukovar	L 0-1	63.0	1705	1516	53.40%	25.42%	21.18%	+0.91	-9.4	22
2025-11-01	Rijeka	W 2-1	61.3	1695	1637	52.18%	25.75%	22.08%	+0.84	+4.4	25
2025-11-01	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	61.3	1637	1695	22.08%	25.75%	52.18%	-0.84	-4.4	14
2025-11-01	Vukovar	D 1-1	65.4	1550	1525	47.95%	26.66%	25.38%	+0.60	-0.9	16
2025-11-01	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	65.4	1525	1550	25.38%	26.66%	47.95%	-0.60	+0.9	10
2025-11-02	Varazdin	D 0-0	62.0	1560	1564	44.16%	27.23%	28.60%	+0.40	-0.7	10
2025-11-02	@ Osijek	D 0-0	62.0	1564	1560	28.60%	27.23%	44.16%	-0.40	+0.7	16
2025-11-02	Hajduk Split	D 0-0	64.4	1549	1669	28.28%	27.19%	44.53%	-0.42	+0.7	17
2025-11-02	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	64.4	1669	1549	44.53%	27.19%	28.28%	+0.42	-0.7	26
2025-11-03	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 4-1	54.3	1489	1562	34.28%	27.68%	38.05%	-0.09	+16.6	14
2025-11-03	@ HNK Gorica	L 1-4	54.3	1562	1489	38.05%	27.68%	34.28%	+0.09	-16.6	16
2025-11-07	Vukovar	D 1-1	63.6	1505	1526	41.77%	27.48%	30.75%	+0.28	-0.4	15
2025-11-07	@ HNK Gorica	D 1-1	63.6	1526	1505	30.75%	27.48%	41.77%	-0.28	+0.4	11
2025-11-08	Osijek	W 2-0	48.8	1669	1560	58.24%	23.90%	17.86%	+1.20	+7.1	29
2025-11-08	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-2	48.8	1560	1669	17.86%	23.90%	58.24%	-1.20	-7.1	10
2025-11-08	Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	65.9	1546	1550	44.06%	27.25%	28.69%	+0.40	-0.6	17
2025-11-08	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	65.9	1550	1546	28.69%	27.25%	44.06%	-0.40	+0.6	18
2025-11-09	Dinamo Zagreb	W 2-1	68.3	1549	1700	24.90%	26.55%	48.54%	-0.63	+8.2	19
2025-11-09	@ Istra 1961	L 1-2	68.3	1700	1549	48.54%	26.55%	24.90%	+0.63	-8.2	25
2025-11-09	Rijeka	W 1-0	58.3	1564	1633	35.00%	27.69%	37.31%	-0.06	+7.1	19
2025-11-09	@ Varazdin	L 0-1	58.3	1633	1564	37.31%	27.69%	35.00%	+0.06	-7.1	14
2025-11-21	Vukovar	W 4-1	51.2	1550	1526	47.82%	26.69%	25.49%	+0.60	+12.2	21
2025-11-21	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-4	51.2	1526	1550	25.49%	26.69%	47.82%	-0.60	-12.2	11
2025-11-22	Varazdin	W 3-1	55.1	1692	1571	59.50%	23.44%	17.07%	+1.27	+5.9	28
2025-11-22	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	55.1	1571	1692	17.07%	23.44%	59.50%	-1.27	-5.9	19
2025-11-22	Hajduk Split	W 5-0	54.7	1626	1676	37.62%	27.69%	34.69%	+0.07	+29.6	17
2025-11-22	@ Rijeka	L 0-5	54.7	1676	1626	34.69%	27.69%	37.62%	-0.07	-29.6	29
2025-11-23	Istra 1961	W 1-0	53.7	1505	1557	37.26%	27.70%	35.04%	+0.05	+6.8	18
2025-11-23	@ HNK Gorica	L 0-1	53.7	1557	1505	35.04%	27.70%	37.26%	-0.05	-6.8	19
2025-11-23	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	66.0	1552	1545	45.60%	27.05%	27.35%	+0.48	-0.7	11
2025-11-23	@ Osijek	D 1-1	66.0	1545	1552	27.35%	27.05%	45.60%	-0.48	+0.7	18
2025-11-28	Osijek	D 2-2	70.9	1514	1552	39.42%	27.63%	32.96%	+0.16	-0.2	12
2025-11-28	@ Vukovar	D 2-2	70.9	1552	1514	32.96%	27.63%	39.42%	-0.16	+0.2	12
2025-11-29	Varazdin	D 1-1	69.7	1646	1565	54.93%	24.98%	20.09%	+1.00	-1.4	30
2025-11-29	@ Hajduk Split	D 1-1	69.7	1565	1646	20.09%	24.98%	54.93%	-1.00	+1.4	20
2025-11-29	Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	66.4	1551	1563	43.00%	27.36%	29.64%	+0.34	-0.5	20
2025-11-29	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	66.4	1563	1551	29.64%	27.36%	43.00%	-0.34	+0.5	22
2025-11-30	Rijeka	D 1-1	68.8	1546	1655	29.58%	27.36%	43.06%	-0.35	+0.5	19
2025-11-30	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	68.8	1655	1546	43.06%	27.36%	29.58%	+0.35	-0.5	18
2025-12-01	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	49.9	1512	1697	21.46%	25.53%	53.02%	-0.88	-8.5	18
2025-12-01	@ HNK Gorica	W 2-0	49.9	1697	1512	53.02%	25.53%	21.46%	+0.88	+8.5	31
2025-12-05	HNK Gorica	W 2-1	55.2	1563	1503	52.40%	25.69%	21.91%	+0.85	+4.4	25
2025-12-05	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	55.2	1503	1563	21.91%	25.69%	52.40%	-0.85	-4.3	18
2025-12-06	Hajduk Split	D 1-1	71.6	1706	1645	52.54%	25.65%	21.81%	+0.86	-1.2	32
2025-12-06	@ Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	71.6	1645	1706	21.81%	25.65%	52.54%	-0.86	+1.2	31
2025-12-06	Vukovar	W 3-1	52.5	1655	1514	61.76%	22.54%	15.70%	+1.42	+5.4	21
2025-12-06	@ Rijeka	L 1-3	52.5	1514	1655	15.70%	22.54%	61.76%	-1.42	-5.4	12
2025-12-07	Istra 1961	L 1-5	56.3	1552	1550	44.85%	27.15%	28.00%	+0.44	-24.3	12
2025-12-07	@ Osijek	W 5-1	56.3	1550	1552	28.00%	27.15%	44.85%	-0.44	+24.3	23
2025-12-07	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 4-2	59.0	1567	1546	47.35%	26.77%	25.88%	+0.57	+7.8	23
2025-12-07	@ Varazdin	L 2-4	59.0	1546	1567	25.88%	26.77%	47.35%	-0.57	-7.8	19
2025-12-12	Varazdin	W 2-0	51.7	1509	1575	35.36%	27.70%	36.94%	-0.04	+13.3	15
2025-12-12	@ Vukovar	L 0-2	51.7	1575	1509	36.94%	27.70%	35.36%	+0.04	-13.2	23
2025-12-13	Hajduk Split	L 1-3	58.6	1539	1646	29.82%	27.38%	42.80%	-0.33	-9.8	19
2025-12-13	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-1	58.6	1646	1539	42.80%	27.38%	29.82%	+0.33	+9.8	34
2025-12-13	HNK Gorica	D 1-1	63.6	1528	1499	48.46%	26.57%	24.97%	+0.63	-0.9	13
2025-12-13	@ Osijek	D 1-1	63.6	1499	1528	24.97%	26.57%	48.46%	-0.63	+0.9	19
2025-12-14	Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-5	58.9	1567	1705	26.31%	26.86%	46.83%	-0.54	-10.8	25
2025-12-14	@ Slaven Belupo	W 5-2	58.9	1705	1567	46.83%	26.86%	26.31%	+0.54	+10.8	35
2025-12-19	Istra 1961	L 1-3	61.2	1561	1574	42.82%	27.38%	29.80%	+0.33	-12.8	23
2025-12-19	@ Varazdin	W 3-1	61.2	1574	1561	29.80%	27.38%	42.82%	-0.33	+12.8	26
2025-12-20	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-0	46.6	1716	1529	66.58%	20.40%	13.03%	+1.74	+5.1	38
2025-12-20	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	46.6	1529	1716	13.03%	20.40%	66.58%	-1.74	-5.1	19
2025-12-20	Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	60.6	1527	1557	40.50%	27.57%	31.93%	+0.22	-0.4	14
2025-12-20	@ Osijek	D 0-0	60.6	1557	1527	31.93%	27.57%	40.50%	-0.22	+0.4	26
2025-12-21	Vukovar	W 2-1	56.0	1656	1522	61.02%	22.84%	16.14%	+1.37	+3.2	37
2025-12-21	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	56.0	1522	1656	16.14%	22.84%	61.02%	-1.37	-3.2	15
2025-12-21	HNK Gorica	W 1-0	48.7	1660	1500	63.88%	21.64%	14.49%	+1.56	+3.0	24
2025-12-21	@ Rijeka	L 0-1	48.7	1500	1660	14.49%	21.64%	63.88%	-1.56	-3.0	19
2026-01-20	Rijeka	L 1-2	64.3	1587	1663	33.97%	27.67%	38.36%	-0.11	-6.2	26
2026-01-20	@ Istra 1961	W 2-1	64.3	1663	1587	38.36%	27.67%	33.97%	+0.11	+6.2	27
2026-01-24	Vukovar	W 2-1	56.5	1524	1519	45.30%	27.09%	27.61%	+0.46	+5.3	22
2026-01-24	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	56.5	1519	1524	27.61%	27.09%	45.30%	-0.46	-5.3	15
2026-01-24	Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	76.5	1669	1557	58.62%	23.76%	17.62%	+1.22	-1.2	28
2026-01-24	@ Rijeka	D 2-2	76.5	1557	1669	17.62%	23.76%	58.62%	-1.22	+1.2	27
2026-01-25	Istra 1961	L 1-2	69.5	1659	1581	54.59%	25.09%	20.33%	+0.98	-9.0	37
2026-01-25	@ Hajduk Split	W 2-1	69.5	1581	1659	20.33%	25.09%	54.59%	-0.98	+9.0	29
2026-01-25	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	48.5	1526	1721	20.72%	25.24%	54.04%	-0.94	-12.0	14
2026-01-25	@ Osijek	W 3-0	48.5	1721	1526	54.04%	25.24%	20.72%	+0.94	+12.0	41
2026-01-26	Varazdin	L 1-2	59.7	1497	1548	37.37%	27.69%	34.94%	+0.06	-6.7	19
2026-01-26	@ HNK Gorica	W 2-1	59.7	1548	1497	34.94%	27.69%	37.37%	-0.06	+6.7	26
2026-01-30	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	67.1	1590	1529	52.53%	25.66%	21.81%	+0.86	-1.2	30
2026-01-30	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	67.1	1529	1590	21.81%	25.66%	52.53%	-0.86	+1.2	23
2026-01-31	Hajduk Split	W 1-0	60.2	1490	1650	23.90%	26.30%	49.80%	-0.70	+8.9	22
2026-01-31	@ HNK Gorica	L 0-1	60.2	1650	1490	49.80%	26.30%	23.90%	+0.70	-8.8	37
2026-01-31	Varazdin	L 0-2	54.9	1558	1555	45.02%	27.13%	27.85%	+0.45	-15.4	27
2026-01-31	@ Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	54.9	1555	1558	27.85%	27.13%	45.02%	-0.45	+15.4	29
2026-02-01	Rijeka	W 1-0	61.1	1514	1668	24.55%	26.47%	48.98%	-0.66	+8.7	17
2026-02-01	@ Osijek	L 0-1	61.1	1668	1514	48.98%	26.47%	24.55%	+0.66	-8.7	28
2026-02-02	Vukovar	W 3-1	51.7	1733	1513	69.75%	18.82%	11.43%	+1.97	+3.8	44
2026-02-02	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	51.7	1513	1733	11.43%	18.82%	69.75%	-1.97	-3.8	15
2026-02-06	HNK Gorica	W 3-0	43.9	1530	1499	48.79%	26.51%	24.71%	+0.65	+14.0	26
2026-02-06	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-3	43.9	1499	1530	24.71%	26.51%	48.79%	-0.65	-14.0	22
2026-02-07	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	48.2	1641	1543	57.01%	24.32%	18.67%	+1.12	+7.5	40
2026-02-07	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-2	48.2	1543	1641	18.67%	24.32%	57.01%	-1.12	-7.5	27
2026-02-07	Istra 1961	W 3-2	67.2	1510	1589	33.50%	27.65%	38.84%	-0.13	+6.5	18
2026-02-07	@ Vukovar	L 2-3	67.2	1589	1510	38.84%	27.65%	33.50%	+0.13	-6.5	30
2026-02-08	Osijek	W 2-1	56.6	1571	1523	50.83%	26.07%	23.10%	+0.76	+4.6	32
2026-02-08	@ Varazdin	L 1-2	56.6	1523	1571	23.10%	26.07%	50.83%	-0.76	-4.6	17
2026-02-08	Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	66.5	1659	1736	33.82%	27.66%	38.51%	-0.12	+0.2	29
2026-02-08	@ Rijeka	D 0-0	66.5	1736	1659	38.51%	27.66%	33.82%	+0.12	-0.2	45
2026-02-13	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-0	49.2	1535	1544	43.40%	27.32%	29.28%	+0.36	+11.1	30
2026-02-13	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	49.2	1544	1535	29.28%	27.32%	43.40%	-0.36	-11.1	26
2026-02-14	Istra 1961	W 4-0	46.6	1736	1582	63.17%	21.95%	14.88%	+1.51	+11.2	48
2026-02-14	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	46.6	1582	1736	14.88%	21.95%	63.17%	-1.51	-11.2	30
2026-02-14	Varazdin	W 3-1	55.9	1660	1575	55.37%	24.85%	19.78%	+1.02	+6.8	32
2026-02-14	@ Rijeka	L 1-3	55.9	1575	1660	19.78%	24.85%	55.37%	-1.02	-6.8	32
2026-02-15	Vukovar	D 0-0	57.6	1485	1516	40.28%	27.58%	32.14%	+0.20	-0.3	23
2026-02-15	@ HNK Gorica	D 0-0	57.6	1516	1485	32.14%	27.58%	40.28%	-0.20	+0.3	19
2026-02-15	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	51.1	1519	1649	27.13%	27.01%	45.86%	-0.49	-10.5	17
2026-02-15	@ Osijek	W 2-0	51.1	1649	1519	45.86%	27.01%	27.13%	+0.49	+10.5	43
2026-02-20	Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	70.8	1516	1546	40.48%	27.57%	31.95%	+0.21	-0.2	20
2026-02-20	@ Vukovar	D 2-2	70.8	1546	1516	31.95%	27.57%	40.48%	-0.21	+0.2	31
2026-02-21	HNK Gorica	L 0-2	55.5	1571	1484	55.65%	24.76%	19.59%	+1.04	-18.3	30
2026-02-21	@ Istra 1961	W 2-0	55.5	1484	1571	19.59%	24.76%	55.65%	-1.04	+18.3	26
2026-02-21	Osijek	W 3-1	52.5	1533	1508	47.95%	26.66%	25.39%	+0.60	+8.6	29
2026-02-21	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-3	52.5	1508	1533	25.39%	26.66%	47.95%	-0.60	-8.6	17
2026-02-22	Rijeka	W 1-0	57.9	1659	1666	43.61%	27.30%	29.09%	+0.37	+5.9	46
2026-02-22	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	57.9	1666	1659	29.09%	27.30%	43.61%	-0.37	-5.9	32
2026-02-22	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	49.9	1568	1747	22.08%	25.75%	52.18%	-0.84	-16.6	32
2026-02-22	@ Varazdin	W 4-0	49.9	1747	1568	52.18%	25.75%	22.08%	+0.84	+16.6	51
2026-02-27	Istra 1961	W 1-0	53.0	1547	1553	43.77%	27.28%	28.95%	+0.38	+5.8	34
2026-02-27	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	53.0	1553	1547	28.95%	27.28%	43.77%	-0.38	-5.8	30
2026-02-28	Vukovar	W 2-0	47.2	1500	1516	42.33%	27.43%	30.24%	+0.31	+11.4	20
2026-02-28	@ Osijek	L 0-2	47.2	1516	1500	30.24%	27.43%	42.33%	-0.31	-11.4	20
2026-02-28	Hajduk Split	D 1-1	69.2	1552	1665	29.11%	27.30%	43.59%	-0.37	+0.5	33
2026-02-28	@ Varazdin	D 1-1	69.2	1665	1552	43.59%	27.30%	29.11%	+0.37	-0.5	47
2026-03-01	HNK Gorica	W 4-2	54.8	1764	1503	73.61%	16.76%	9.63%	+2.27	+2.7	54
2026-03-01	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-4	54.8	1503	1764	9.63%	16.76%	73.61%	-2.27	-2.7	26
2026-03-01	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-0	47.9	1661	1542	59.35%	23.49%	17.16%	+1.26	+6.8	35
2026-03-01	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	47.9	1542	1661	17.16%	23.49%	59.35%	-1.26	-6.9	29
2026-03-06	Osijek	L 0-1	57.4	1547	1511	49.39%	26.39%	24.23%	+0.68	-8.8	30
2026-03-06	@ Istra 1961	W 1-0	57.4	1511	1547	24.23%	26.39%	49.39%	-0.68	+8.8	23
2026-03-07	Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	70.4	1500	1552	37.27%	27.70%	35.04%	+0.05	-0.1	27
2026-03-07	@ HNK Gorica	D 2-2	70.4	1552	1500	35.04%	27.70%	37.27%	-0.05	+0.1	35
2026-03-07	Varazdin	D 1-1	65.6	1535	1552	42.24%	27.44%	30.33%	+0.30	-0.4	30
2026-03-07	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	65.6	1552	1535	30.33%	27.44%	42.24%	-0.30	+0.4	34
2026-03-08	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	62.0	1664	1767	30.48%	27.45%	42.07%	-0.30	-9.9	47
2026-03-08	@ Hajduk Split	W 3-1	62.0	1767	1664	42.07%	27.45%	30.48%	+0.30	+10.0	57
2026-03-08	Rijeka	L 0-1	53.2	1505	1667	23.65%	26.23%	50.12%	-0.72	-4.9	20
2026-03-08	@ Vukovar	W 1-0	53.2	1667	1505	50.12%	26.23%	23.65%	+0.72	+4.9	38
2026-03-13	Vukovar	W 2-0	45.8	1553	1500	51.50%	25.91%	22.58%	+0.80	+8.9	37
2026-03-13	@ Varazdin	L 0-2	45.8	1500	1553	22.58%	25.91%	51.50%	-0.80	-8.9	20
2026-03-14	Slaven Belupo	W 4-2	56.6	1777	1553	70.21%	18.58%	11.21%	+2.01	+3.3	60
2026-03-14	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-4	56.6	1553	1777	11.21%	18.58%	70.21%	-2.01	-3.3	35
2026-03-14	HNK Gorica	D 0-0	58.5	1520	1500	47.28%	26.78%	25.94%	+0.57	-0.9	24
2026-03-14	@ Osijek	D 0-0	58.5	1500	1520	25.94%	26.78%	47.28%	-0.57	+0.9	28
2026-03-15	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	56.7	1655	1534	59.48%	23.44%	17.08%	+1.27	+3.4	50
2026-03-15	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	56.7	1534	1655	17.08%	23.44%	59.48%	-1.27	-3.4	30
2026-03-15	Istra 1961	L 0-2	61.0	1672	1538	61.04%	22.84%	16.13%	+1.37	-19.7	38
2026-03-15	@ Rijeka	W 2-0	61.0	1538	1672	16.13%	22.84%	61.04%	-1.37	+19.7	33
2026-03-20	Varazdin	W 2-1	59.4	1558	1562	44.12%	27.24%	28.64%	+0.40	+5.5	36
2026-03-20	@ Istra 1961	L 1-2	59.4	1562	1558	28.64%	27.24%	44.12%	-0.40	-5.5	37
2026-03-21	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-5	48.0	1531	1780	16.53%	23.10%	60.37%	-1.33	-15.4	30
2026-03-21	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 5-0	48.0	1780	1531	60.37%	23.10%	16.53%	+1.33	+15.4	63
2026-03-21	Hajduk Split	L 0-6	48.4	1491	1658	23.23%	26.11%	50.66%	-0.75	-25.5	20
2026-03-21	@ Vukovar	W 6-0	48.4	1658	1491	50.66%	26.11%	23.23%	+0.75	+25.5	53
2026-03-22	Rijeka	W 4-0	55.0	1501	1653	24.74%	26.51%	48.75%	-0.65	+31.1	31
2026-03-22	@ HNK Gorica	L 0-4	55.0	1653	1501	48.75%	26.51%	24.74%	+0.65	-31.1	38
2026-03-22	Osijek	D 0-0	60.3	1549	1519	48.66%	26.53%	24.81%	+0.64	-1.0	36
2026-03-22	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	60.3	1519	1549	24.81%	26.53%	48.66%	-0.64	+1.0	25
2026-04-03	HNK Gorica	D 1-1	65.8	1556	1532	47.85%	26.68%	25.46%	+0.60	-0.8	38
2026-04-03	@ Varazdin	D 1-1	65.8	1532	1556	25.46%	26.68%	47.85%	-0.60	+0.9	32
2026-04-04	Osijek	W 7-0	45.0	1795	1520	74.84%	16.08%	9.08%	+2.37	+10.6	66
2026-04-04	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-7	45.0	1520	1795	9.08%	16.08%	74.84%	-2.37	-10.6	25
2026-04-04	Rijeka	L 0-2	53.5	1548	1622	34.32%	27.68%	38.00%	-0.09	-12.6	36
2026-04-04	@ Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	53.5	1622	1548	38.00%	27.68%	34.32%	+0.09	+12.6	41
2026-04-07	Hajduk Split	L 1-3	59.3	1563	1683	28.31%	27.19%	44.50%	-0.42	-9.4	36
2026-04-07	@ Istra 1961	W 3-1	59.3	1683	1563	44.50%	27.19%	28.31%	+0.42	+9.4	56
2026-04-07	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	61.6	1465	1516	37.63%	27.69%	34.68%	+0.07	-0.1	21
2026-04-07	@ Vukovar	D 1-1	61.6	1516	1465	34.68%	27.69%	37.63%	-0.07	+0.1	31
2026-04-11	Istra 1961	W 2-0	50.1	1516	1554	39.30%	27.63%	33.06%	+0.16	+12.2	34
2026-04-11	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	50.1	1554	1516	33.06%	27.63%	39.30%	-0.16	-12.2	36
2026-04-12	HNK Gorica	W 1-0	50.3	1693	1533	63.82%	21.66%	14.52%	+1.55	+3.0	59
2026-04-12	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	50.3	1533	1693	14.52%	21.66%	63.82%	-1.55	-3.0	32
2026-04-12	Osijek	L 0-2	59.2	1634	1509	60.02%	23.24%	16.74%	+1.31	-19.4	41
2026-04-12	@ Rijeka	W 2-0	59.2	1509	1634	16.74%	23.24%	60.02%	-1.31	+19.4	28
2026-04-12	Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	57.6	1555	1536	47.24%	26.79%	25.97%	+0.56	+5.0	41
2026-04-12	@ Varazdin	L 1-2	57.6	1536	1555	25.97%	26.79%	47.24%	-0.56	-5.0	36
2026-04-13	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-4	49.5	1465	1806	11.41%	18.80%	69.80%	-1.97	-5.3	21
2026-04-13	@ Vukovar	W 4-1	49.5	1806	1465	69.80%	18.80%	11.41%	+1.97	+5.3	69
2026-04-17	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	53.0	1530	1528	44.86%	27.15%	28.00%	+0.44	-15.4	32
2026-04-17	@ HNK Gorica	W 2-0	53.0	1528	1530	28.00%	27.15%	44.86%	-0.44	+15.4	37
2026-04-17	Varazdin	L 0-2	52.9	1529	1560	40.24%	27.58%	32.17%	+0.20	-14.1	28
2026-04-17	@ Osijek	W 2-0	52.9	1560	1529	32.17%	27.58%	40.24%	-0.20	+14.1	44
2026-04-17	Hajduk Split	D 2-2	75.8	1531	1696	23.41%	26.16%	50.43%	-0.74	+0.8	37
2026-04-17	@ Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	75.8	1696	1531	50.43%	26.16%	23.41%	+0.74	-0.8	60
2026-04-18	Rijeka	D 2-2	80.0	1811	1615	67.54%	19.93%	12.53%	+1.81	-1.7	70
2026-04-18	@ Dinamo Zagreb	D 2-2	80.0	1615	1811	12.53%	19.93%	67.54%	-1.81	+1.7	42
2026-04-18	Vukovar	L 1-2	62.5	1542	1460	55.04%	24.95%	20.01%	+1.00	-9.0	36
2026-04-18	@ Istra 1961	W 2-1	62.5	1460	1542	20.01%	24.95%	55.04%	-1.00	+9.0	24
2026-04-21	Osijek	L 0-1	65.1	1695	1515	65.93%	20.70%	13.37%	+1.70	-11.1	60
2026-04-21	@ Hajduk Split	W 1-0	65.1	1515	1695	13.37%	20.70%	65.93%	-1.70	+11.1	31
2026-04-21	Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	57.3	1543	1531	46.21%	26.96%	26.83%	+0.51	+5.2	40
2026-04-21	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	57.3	1531	1543	26.83%	26.96%	46.21%	-0.51	-5.2	37
2026-04-22	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	48.9	1533	1810	14.76%	21.85%	63.39%	-1.53	-5.8	36
2026-04-22	@ Istra 1961	W 2-0	48.9	1810	1533	63.39%	21.85%	14.76%	+1.53	+5.8	73
2026-04-22	Rijeka	W 1-0	57.0	1574	1616	38.79%	27.65%	33.56%	+0.13	+6.6	47
2026-04-22	@ Varazdin	L 0-1	57.0	1616	1574	33.56%	27.65%	38.79%	-0.13	-6.6	42
2026-04-22	HNK Gorica	L 1-2	57.6	1469	1514	38.33%	27.67%	34.00%	+0.11	-6.8	24
2026-04-22	@ Vukovar	W 2-1	57.6	1514	1469	34.00%	27.67%	38.33%	-0.11	+6.8	35
2026-04-25	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 0-0	60.3	1526	1548	41.48%	27.50%	31.02%	+0.26	-0.4	32
2026-04-25	@ Osijek	D 0-0	60.3	1548	1526	31.02%	27.50%	41.48%	-0.26	+0.4	41
2026-04-25	Vukovar	D 2-2	68.6	1526	1462	52.89%	25.56%	21.55%	+0.88	-0.9	38
2026-04-25	@ Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	68.6	1462	1526	21.55%	25.56%	52.89%	-0.88	+0.9	25
2026-04-26	Hajduk Split	D 0-0	65.5	1610	1684	34.22%	27.68%	38.10%	-0.10	+0.2	43
2026-04-26	@ Rijeka	D 0-0	65.5	1684	1610	38.10%	27.68%	34.22%	+0.10	-0.2	61
2026-04-26	Varazdin	W 2-1	56.1	1815	1581	71.17%	18.08%	10.75%	+2.08	+2.0	76
2026-04-26	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	56.1	1581	1815	10.75%	18.08%	71.17%	-2.08	-2.0	47
2026-04-27	Istra 1961	W 1-0	51.2	1521	1527	43.83%	27.27%	28.90%	+0.39	+5.8	38
2026-04-27	@ HNK Gorica	L 0-1	51.2	1527	1521	28.90%	27.27%	43.83%	-0.39	-5.8	36
2026-05-02	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	57.6	1527	1817	13.97%	21.22%	64.82%	-1.62	-2.7	38
2026-05-02	@ HNK Gorica	W 2-1	57.6	1817	1527	64.82%	21.22%	13.97%	+1.62	+2.8	79
2026-05-02	Osijek	W 1-0	51.3	1463	1525	35.93%	27.70%	36.37%	-0.01	+7.0	28
2026-05-02	@ Vukovar	L 0-1	51.3	1525	1463	36.37%	27.70%	35.93%	+0.01	-7.0	32
2026-05-03	Varazdin	W 3-1	55.6	1684	1579	57.74%	24.07%	18.19%	+1.16	+6.3	64
2026-05-03	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-3	55.6	1579	1684	18.19%	24.07%	57.74%	-1.16	-6.3	47
2026-05-03	Rijeka	L 0-3	51.9	1549	1610	36.04%	27.70%	36.25%	-0.01	-18.9	41
2026-05-03	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-0	51.9	1610	1549	36.25%	27.70%	36.04%	+0.01	+18.9	46
2026-05-04	Slaven Belupo	W 3-1	53.9	1521	1525	44.04%	27.25%	28.71%	+0.40	+9.5	39
2026-05-04	@ Istra 1961	L 1-3	53.9	1525	1521	28.71%	27.25%	44.04%	-0.40	-9.5	38
2026-05-08	Vukovar	W 3-0	41.9	1629	1470	63.69%	21.72%	14.59%	+1.55	+8.4	49
2026-05-08	@ Rijeka	L 0-3	41.9	1470	1629	14.59%	21.72%	63.69%	-1.55	-8.4	28
2026-05-09	Hajduk Split	W 2-0	50.7	1820	1690	60.59%	23.01%	16.39%	+1.34	+6.5	82
2026-05-09	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	50.7	1690	1820	16.39%	23.01%	60.59%	-1.34	-6.5	64
2026-05-09	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	66.4	1573	1530	50.23%	26.21%	23.56%	+0.73	-1.0	48
2026-05-09	@ Varazdin	D 1-1	66.4	1530	1573	23.56%	26.21%	50.23%	-0.73	+1.0	42
2026-05-10	Istra 1961	L 0-1	55.4	1518	1531	42.93%	27.37%	29.70%	+0.34	-7.9	32
2026-05-10	@ Osijek	W 1-0	55.4	1531	1518	29.70%	27.37%	42.93%	-0.34	+7.9	42
2026-05-10	HNK Gorica	W 1-0	51.0	1516	1524	43.48%	27.31%	29.21%	+0.37	+5.9	41
2026-05-10	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	51.0	1524	1516	29.21%	27.31%	43.48%	-0.37	-5.9	38
2026-05-15	Varazdin	L 0-2	47.6	1462	1572	29.53%	27.35%	43.12%	-0.35	-11.2	28
2026-05-15	@ Vukovar	W 2-0	47.6	1572	1462	43.12%	27.35%	29.53%	+0.35	+11.2	51
2026-05-16	Osijek	W 2-0	46.7	1518	1510	45.69%	27.03%	27.27%	+0.48	+10.5	41
2026-05-16	@ HNK Gorica	L 0-2	46.7	1510	1518	27.27%	27.03%	45.69%	-0.48	-10.5	32
2026-05-16	Hajduk Split	D 1-1	69.3	1531	1684	24.68%	26.50%	48.81%	-0.65	+0.9	43
2026-05-16	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	69.3	1684	1531	48.81%	26.50%	24.68%	+0.65	-0.9	65
2026-05-17	Rijeka	D 0-0	63.3	1538	1637	30.91%	27.49%	41.60%	-0.27	+0.4	43
2026-05-17	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	63.3	1637	1538	41.60%	27.49%	30.91%	+0.27	-0.4	50
2026-05-17	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-4	51.5	1522	1827	13.17%	20.53%	66.30%	-1.72	-6.3	41
2026-05-17	@ Slaven Belupo	W 4-1	51.5	1827	1522	66.30%	20.53%	13.17%	+1.72	+6.3	85
2026-05-22	Vukovar	W 6-3	49.4	1683	1451	70.95%	18.19%	10.85%	+2.06	+4.0	68
2026-05-22	@ Hajduk Split	L 3-6	49.4	1451	1683	10.85%	18.19%	70.95%	-2.06	-4.0	28
2026-05-22	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	47.1	1500	1515	42.49%	27.41%	30.10%	+0.32	+11.4	35
2026-05-22	@ Osijek	L 0-2	47.1	1515	1500	30.10%	27.41%	42.49%	-0.32	-11.4	41
2026-05-23	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 0-0	70.1	1833	1532	76.96%	14.88%	8.16%	+2.55	-3.1	86
2026-05-23	@ Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	70.1	1532	1833	8.16%	14.88%	76.96%	-2.55	+3.1	44
2026-05-23	HNK Gorica	W 2-0	47.4	1637	1529	58.11%	23.94%	17.95%	+1.19	+7.2	53
2026-05-23	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	47.4	1529	1637	17.95%	23.94%	58.11%	-1.19	-7.2	41
2026-05-23	Istra 1961	W 2-0	48.4	1583	1539	50.39%	26.17%	23.44%	+0.74	+9.2	54
2026-05-23	@ Varazdin	L 0-2	48.4	1539	1583	23.44%	26.17%	50.39%	-0.74	-9.2	43

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2025-09-14	12.81%	HNK Gorica	1509	2	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1700	1
2	2026-04-21	13.37%	Osijek	1515	1	@ Hajduk Split	1695	0
3	2026-03-15	16.13%	Istra 1961	1538	2	@ Rijeka	1672	0
4	2026-04-12	16.74%	Osijek	1509	2	@ Rijeka	1634	0
5	2025-08-24	19.39%	Varazdin	1550	2	@ Rijeka	1639	1
6	2026-02-21	19.59%	HNK Gorica	1484	2	@ Istra 1961	1571	0
7	2026-04-18	20.01%	Vukovar	1460	2	@ Istra 1961	1542	1
8	2026-01-25	20.33%	Istra 1961	1581	2	@ Hajduk Split	1659	1
9	2025-08-16	20.56%	HNK Gorica	1498	3	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1573	1
10	2025-10-27	21.18%	@ Vukovar	1516	1	Dinamo Zagreb	1705	0
11	2025-10-25	23.47%	Slaven Belupo	1535	3	@ Varazdin	1578	1
12	2026-01-31	23.90%	@ HNK Gorica	1490	1	Hajduk Split	1650	0
13	2026-03-06	24.23%	Osijek	1511	1	@ Istra 1961	1547	0
14	2026-02-01	24.55%	@ Osijek	1514	1	Rijeka	1668	0
15	2026-03-22	24.74%	@ HNK Gorica	1501	4	Rijeka	1653	0
16	2025-11-09	24.90%	@ Istra 1961	1549	2	Dinamo Zagreb	1700	1
17	2025-10-25	25.02%	Istra 1961	1542	2	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1570	1
18	2025-10-05	25.23%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1562	2	Dinamo Zagreb	1710	1
19	2025-08-30	25.95%	Slaven Belupo	1527	2	@ Vukovar	1546	1
20	2026-01-31	27.85%	Varazdin	1555	2	@ Slaven Belupo	1558	0
21	2025-12-07	28.00%	Istra 1961	1550	5	@ Osijek	1552	1
22	2026-04-17	28.00%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1528	2	@ HNK Gorica	1530	0
23	2025-09-22	29.48%	@ Vukovar	1519	3	Rijeka	1629	2
24	2026-05-10	29.70%	Istra 1961	1531	1	@ Osijek	1518	0
25	2025-12-19	29.80%	Istra 1961	1574	3	@ Varazdin	1561	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2026-03-22	31.14	@ HNK Gorica	4	1501	24.74%	Rijeka	0	1653	48.75%	26.51%
2	2025-11-22	29.61	@ Rijeka	5	1626	37.62%	Hajduk Split	0	1676	34.69%	27.69%
3	2026-03-21	25.46	Hajduk Split	6	1658	50.66%	@ Vukovar	0	1491	23.23%	26.11%
4	2025-12-07	24.28	Istra 1961	5	1550	28.00%	@ Osijek	1	1552	44.85%	27.15%
5	2026-03-15	19.68	Istra 1961	2	1538	16.13%	@ Rijeka	0	1672	61.04%	22.84%
6	2026-04-12	19.42	Osijek	2	1509	16.74%	@ Rijeka	0	1634	60.02%	23.24%
7	2025-09-14	19.31	@ Osijek	4	1556	46.93%	Vukovar	0	1538	26.23%	26.84%
8	2026-05-03	18.91	Rijeka	3	1610	36.25%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1549	36.04%	27.70%
9	2026-02-21	18.27	HNK Gorica	2	1484	19.59%	@ Istra 1961	0	1571	55.65%	24.76%
10	2025-10-19	17.67	Hajduk Split	3	1644	39.52%	@ Istra 1961	0	1560	32.86%	27.62%
11	2026-02-22	16.62	Dinamo Zagreb	4	1747	52.18%	@ Varazdin	0	1568	22.08%	25.75%
12	2025-11-03	16.59	@ HNK Gorica	4	1489	34.28%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1562	38.05%	27.68%
13	2025-08-16	15.50	HNK Gorica	3	1498	20.56%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1573	54.25%	25.18%
14	2026-03-21	15.41	Dinamo Zagreb	5	1780	60.37%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1531	16.53%	23.10%
15	2026-01-31	15.41	Varazdin	2	1555	27.85%	@ Slaven Belupo	0	1558	45.02%	27.13%
16	2026-04-17	15.36	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1528	28.00%	@ HNK Gorica	0	1530	44.86%	27.15%
17	2025-10-25	14.59	Slaven Belupo	3	1535	23.47%	@ Varazdin	1	1578	50.34%	26.18%
18	2025-08-16	14.45	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1677	31.05%	@ Rijeka	0	1654	41.45%	27.50%
19	2025-09-13	14.43	@ Varazdin	2	1560	31.10%	Hajduk Split	0	1657	41.39%	27.51%
20	2026-04-17	14.13	Varazdin	2	1560	32.17%	@ Osijek	0	1529	40.24%	27.58%
21	2026-02-06	14.05	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1530	48.79%	HNK Gorica	0	1499	24.71%	26.51%
22	2025-09-20	13.57	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1689	34.19%	@ Hajduk Split	0	1643	38.13%	27.68%
23	2025-12-12	13.26	@ Vukovar	2	1509	35.36%	Varazdin	0	1575	36.94%	27.70%
24	2025-12-19	12.83	Istra 1961	3	1574	29.80%	@ Varazdin	1	1561	42.82%	27.38%
25	2026-04-04	12.56	Rijeka	2	1622	38.00%	@ Slaven Belupo	0	1548	34.32%	27.68%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2026-04-18	80.0	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1811	67.54%	Rijeka	2	1615	12.53%	19.93%
2	2025-08-31	76.7	@ Hajduk Split	2	1658	48.31%	Rijeka	2	1630	25.09%	26.60%
3	2026-01-24	76.5	@ Rijeka	2	1669	58.62%	Slaven Belupo	2	1557	17.62%	23.76%
4	2025-08-30	76.2	@ Varazdin	2	1559	25.88%	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1700	47.35%	26.77%
5	2026-04-17	75.8	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1531	23.41%	Hajduk Split	2	1696	50.43%	26.16%
6	2025-08-09	73.0	@ Istra 1961	2	1556	42.34%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1573	30.24%	27.43%
7	2025-12-06	71.6	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1	1706	52.54%	Hajduk Split	1	1645	21.81%	25.65%
8	2025-09-14	71.2	HNK Gorica	2	1509	12.81%	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1	1700	67.00%	20.19%
9	2025-08-22	71.0	@ Vukovar	2	1547	49.12%	HNK Gorica	2	1513	24.44%	26.44%
10	2025-11-28	70.9	@ Vukovar	2	1514	39.42%	Osijek	2	1552	32.96%	27.63%
11	2026-02-20	70.8	@ Vukovar	2	1516	40.48%	Slaven Belupo	2	1546	31.95%	27.57%
12	2026-03-07	70.4	@ HNK Gorica	2	1500	37.27%	Slaven Belupo	2	1552	35.04%	27.70%
13	2026-05-23	70.1	@ Dinamo Zagreb	0	1833	76.96%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1532	8.16%	14.88%
14	2025-09-22	69.9	@ Vukovar	3	1519	29.48%	Rijeka	2	1629	43.17%	27.35%
15	2025-11-29	69.7	@ Hajduk Split	1	1646	54.93%	Varazdin	1	1565	20.09%	24.98%
16	2026-01-25	69.5	Istra 1961	2	1581	20.33%	@ Hajduk Split	1	1659	54.59%	25.09%
17	2026-05-16	69.3	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1531	24.68%	Hajduk Split	1	1684	48.81%	26.50%
18	2025-09-13	69.2	@ Rijeka	1	1631	53.24%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1564	21.30%	25.47%
19	2026-02-28	69.2	@ Varazdin	1	1552	29.11%	Hajduk Split	1	1665	43.59%	27.30%
20	2025-08-24	68.8	Varazdin	2	1550	19.39%	@ Rijeka	1	1639	55.93%	24.67%
21	2025-11-30	68.8	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1546	29.58%	Rijeka	1	1655	43.06%	27.36%
22	2025-10-05	68.6	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1562	25.23%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1710	48.14%	26.63%
23	2026-04-25	68.6	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1526	52.89%	Vukovar	2	1462	21.55%	25.56%
24	2025-11-09	68.3	@ Istra 1961	2	1549	24.90%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1700	48.54%	26.55%
25	2025-10-18	67.9	@ Slaven Belupo	1	1534	31.20%	Rijeka	1	1631	41.29%	27.51%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2026-05-08	41.9	@ Rijeka	3	1629	63.69%	Vukovar	0	1470	14.59%	21.72%
2	2026-02-06	43.9	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1530	48.79%	HNK Gorica	0	1499	24.71%	26.51%
3	2026-04-04	45.0	@ Dinamo Zagreb	7	1795	74.84%	Osijek	0	1520	9.08%	16.08%
4	2026-03-13	45.8	@ Varazdin	2	1553	51.50%	Vukovar	0	1500	22.58%	25.91%
5	2025-08-10	45.9	@ Hajduk Split	2	1627	59.80%	HNK Gorica	0	1504	16.88%	23.32%
6	2025-08-23	46.4	@ Dinamo Zagreb	3	1691	61.14%	Istra 1961	0	1556	16.07%	22.80%
7	2025-09-14	46.5	@ Osijek	4	1556	46.93%	Vukovar	0	1538	26.23%	26.84%
8	2025-08-17	46.6	@ Hajduk Split	3	1634	55.89%	Slaven Belupo	0	1545	19.42%	24.69%
9	2025-12-20	46.6	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1716	66.58%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1529	13.03%	20.40%
10	2026-02-14	46.6	@ Dinamo Zagreb	4	1736	63.17%	Istra 1961	0	1582	14.88%	21.95%
11	2026-05-16	46.7	@ HNK Gorica	2	1518	45.69%	Osijek	0	1510	27.27%	27.03%
12	2025-08-08	46.9	@ Dinamo Zagreb	3	1666	58.13%	Vukovar	0	1558	17.94%	23.94%
13	2026-05-22	47.1	@ Osijek	2	1500	42.49%	Slaven Belupo	0	1515	30.10%	27.41%
14	2026-02-28	47.2	@ Osijek	2	1500	42.33%	Vukovar	0	1516	30.24%	27.43%
15	2026-05-23	47.4	@ Rijeka	2	1637	58.11%	HNK Gorica	0	1529	17.95%	23.94%
16	2026-05-15	47.6	Varazdin	2	1572	43.12%	@ Vukovar	0	1462	29.53%	27.35%
17	2026-03-01	47.9	@ Rijeka	2	1661	59.35%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1542	17.16%	23.49%
18	2026-03-21	48.0	Dinamo Zagreb	5	1780	60.37%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1531	16.53%	23.10%
19	2025-08-03	48.1	@ Rijeka	2	1647	57.69%	Slaven Belupo	0	1542	18.22%	24.09%
20	2026-02-07	48.2	@ Hajduk Split	2	1641	57.01%	Slaven Belupo	0	1543	18.67%	24.32%
21	2026-03-21	48.4	Hajduk Split	6	1658	50.66%	@ Vukovar	0	1491	23.23%	26.11%
22	2026-05-23	48.4	@ Varazdin	2	1583	50.39%	Istra 1961	0	1539	23.44%	26.17%
23	2026-01-25	48.5	Dinamo Zagreb	3	1721	54.04%	@ Osijek	0	1526	20.72%	25.24%
24	2025-12-21	48.7	@ Rijeka	1	1660	63.88%	HNK Gorica	0	1500	14.49%	21.64%
25	2025-11-08	48.8	@ Hajduk Split	2	1669	58.24%	Osijek	0	1560	17.86%	23.90%