2024-25 Hrvatska nogometna liga Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Rijeka

65 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 2016-17

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Slaven Belupo

10.39 points above expected

48 points · 37.61 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sibenik

12.06 points below expected

30 points · 42.06 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Rijeka Champion	36	18	11	7	65	49	21	+28	65.00	+0.00
2	Dinamo Zagreb	36	19	8	9	65	69	41	+28	64.25	+0.75
3	Hajduk Split	36	17	12	7	63	49	34	+15	61.46	+1.54
4	Varazdin	36	11	16	9	49	28	24	+4	43.58	+5.42
5	Slaven Belupo	36	13	9	14	48	42	45	-3	37.61	+10.39
6	Istra 1961	36	11	15	10	48	39	42	-3	40.18	+7.82
7	Osijek	36	11	9	16	42	46	52	-6	52.40	-10.40
8	Lokomotiva Zagreb	36	10	9	17	39	45	54	-9	47.04	-8.04
9	HNK Gorica	36	9	10	17	37	29	51	-22	35.76	+1.24
10	Sibenik	36	7	9	20	30	28	60	-32	42.06	-12.06

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Slaven Belupo	48	37.61	+10.39
2	Istra 1961	48	40.18	+7.82
3	Varazdin	49	43.58	+5.42
4	Hajduk Split	63	61.46	+1.54
5	HNK Gorica	37	35.76	+1.24

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sibenik	30	42.06	-12.06
2	Osijek	42	52.40	-10.40
3	Lokomotiva Zagreb	39	47.04	-8.04
4	Rijeka	65	65.00	+0.00
5	Dinamo Zagreb	65	64.25	+0.75

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	HNK Gorica	3	Apr 12 – Apr 23	1 in 85
2	Slaven Belupo	2	Nov 22 – Nov 30	1 in 18
3	Hajduk Split	3	Aug 31 – Sep 21	1 in 15
4	Istra 1961	2	Mar 29 – Apr 5	1 in 14
5	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	Dec 14 – Dec 21	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Osijek	5	Feb 8 – Mar 8	1 in 367
2	Hajduk Split	3	Apr 23 – May 3	1 in 80
3	Rijeka	3	Apr 19 – Apr 27	1 in 79
4	Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	Apr 18 – Apr 26	1 in 57
5	Sibenik	4	Feb 7 – Mar 2	1 in 42

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rijeka	19	Aug 4 – Jan 26	1 in 174
2	Slaven Belupo	7	Oct 25 – Dec 13	1 in 83
3	HNK Gorica	6	Mar 28 – Apr 28	1 in 71
4	Varazdin	8	Oct 20 – Dec 15	1 in 44
5	Istra 1961	7	Apr 19 – May 25	1 in 42

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Osijek	10	Feb 8 – Apr 19	1 in 151
2	Lokomotiva Zagreb	10	Mar 15 – May 17	1 in 82
3	Hajduk Split	6	Apr 13 – May 11	1 in 57
4	Sibenik	11	Nov 29 – Mar 7	1 in 35
5	Dinamo Zagreb	5	Nov 9 – Dec 14	1 in 34

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Dinamo Zagreb	1700	65	+23	13	8.7	+4.3
Rijeka	1683	65	+1	9	8.5	+0.5
Hajduk Split	1651	63	-12	7	7.9	-0.9
Varazdin	1549	49	+5	8	6.7	+1.3
Istra 1961	1548	48	+9	7	7.1	-0.1
Slaven Belupo	1517	48	-12	4	5.5	-1.5
Osijek	1580	42	+17	8	7.2	+0.8
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1558	39	+10	6	6.1	-0.1
HNK Gorica	1452	37	-26	2	4.8	-2.8
Sibenik	1474	30	-16	2	5.3	-3.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	DZ	HG	HS	I1	LZ	OSI	RIJ	SIB	SB	VAR
Dinamo Zagreb	—	2-1-1 8.37	1-1-2 5.80	2-1-1 8.00	2-1-1 7.33	2-0-2 6.66	1-2-1 5.57	4-0-0 7.52	2-1-1 8.20	3-1-0 7.55
HNK Gorica	1-1-2 2.71	—	1-1-2 3.03	2-1-1 4.93	0-1-3 4.21	2-1-1 3.66	0-1-3 2.84	2-1-1 4.68	1-0-3 5.24	0-3-1 4.62
Hajduk Split	2-1-1 4.98	2-1-1 7.97	—	0-3-1 7.65	1-2-1 6.86	2-1-1 6.36	1-2-1 5.00	4-0-0 7.51	3-1-0 7.89	2-1-1 7.33
Istra 1961	1-1-2 3.01	1-1-2 5.84	1-3-0 3.30	—	2-1-1 4.65	2-2-0 4.16	2-0-2 3.06	1-2-1 5.29	1-2-1 5.67	0-3-1 4.95
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-1-2 3.56	3-1-0 6.62	1-2-1 4.00	1-1-2 6.14	—	1-1-2 4.87	0-1-3 3.81	2-0-2 5.83	0-1-3 6.59	1-1-2 5.77
Osijek	2-0-2 4.18	1-1-2 7.22	1-1-2 4.44	0-2-2 6.67	2-1-1 5.93	—	1-1-2 4.30	1-1-2 6.33	2-0-2 6.92	1-2-1 6.23
Rijeka	1-2-1 5.20	3-1-0 8.21	1-2-1 5.77	2-0-2 7.94	3-1-0 7.04	2-1-1 6.55	—	3-1-0 7.75	2-1-1 8.11	1-2-1 7.59
Sibenik	0-0-4 3.41	1-1-2 6.09	0-0-4 3.41	1-2-1 5.53	2-0-2 4.95	2-1-1 4.48	0-1-3 3.22	—	1-2-1 6.19	0-2-2 5.23
Slaven Belupo	1-1-2 2.85	3-0-1 5.54	0-1-3 3.11	1-2-1 5.10	3-1-0 4.22	2-0-2 3.96	1-1-2 2.92	1-2-1 4.64	—	1-1-2 4.79
Varazdin	0-1-3 3.38	1-3-0 6.19	1-1-2 3.57	1-3-0 5.84	2-1-1 5.02	1-2-1 4.57	1-2-1 3.36	2-2-0 5.59	2-1-1 6.01	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.53	+7.1
Allowed	0.60	-7.4
Differential	0.95	+6.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.56%	11.11%	4.72%	3.33%	2.22%	0.56%	32.50%
1	11.11%	12.78%	7.78%	1.39%	1.67%	0.28%	35.00%
2	4.72%	7.78%	6.11%	1.67%	0.28%	—	20.56%
3	3.33%	1.39%	1.67%	0.56%	—	—	6.94%
4	2.22%	1.67%	0.28%	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	0.56%	0.28%	—	—	—	—	0.83%
Total	32.50%	35.00%	20.56%	6.94%	4.17%	0.83%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.18	+0.00
SD	1.14	1.14	1.71
CV	0.96	0.96	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	8.33%	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	30.56%
2	2.78%	5.56%	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	19.44%
3	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	—	19.44%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	36.11%	36.11%	13.89%	5.56%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.92	1.14	+0.78
SD	1.48	1.22	2.22
CV	0.77	1.07	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	36.11%
1	16.67%	8.33%	16.67%	2.78%	5.56%	—	50.00%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.56%	22.22%	30.56%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.81	1.42	-0.61
SD	0.75	1.25	1.40
CV	0.93	0.88	—
Max	3	4	+1
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
1	19.44%	19.44%	—	2.78%	—	—	41.67%
2	2.78%	16.67%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	47.22%	11.11%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	0.94	+0.42
SD	1.07	0.89	1.44
CV	0.79	0.95	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	19.44%	11.11%	2.78%	—	2.78%	2.78%	38.89%
1	8.33%	13.89%	—	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
2	2.78%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	25.00%
3	5.56%	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.11%	36.11%	11.11%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	1.17	-0.08
SD	1.05	1.28	1.56
CV	0.97	1.09	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	13.89%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	27.78%
1	2.78%	16.67%	13.89%	—	2.78%	2.78%	38.89%
2	5.56%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	16.67%
3	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	13.89%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	19.44%	38.89%	25.00%	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.50	-0.25
SD	1.11	1.23	1.87
CV	0.88	0.82	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	8.33%	16.67%	—	2.78%	—	33.33%
2	8.33%	5.56%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	27.78%
3	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	38.89%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.44	-0.17
SD	1.11	1.08	1.66
CV	0.87	0.75	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	19.44%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	36.11%
2	11.11%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	19.44%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	58.33%	25.00%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	0.58	+0.78
SD	1.27	0.77	1.61
CV	0.93	1.32	—
Max	4	2	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	13.89%	5.56%	13.89%	8.33%	—	50.00%
1	8.33%	8.33%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
2	2.78%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	13.89%
3	—	—	—	2.78%	—	—	2.78%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	19.44%	30.56%	22.22%	19.44%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.78	1.67	-0.89
SD	0.99	1.24	1.72
CV	1.27	0.75	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	13.89%	13.89%	—	—	2.78%	38.89%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	25.00%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	2.78%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	38.89%	30.56%	—	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	1.25	-0.08
SD	1.21	1.11	1.78
CV	1.03	0.88	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	25.00%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	41.67%
1	13.89%	19.44%	5.56%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	11.11%	—	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	44.44%	47.22%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.78	0.67	+0.11
SD	0.76	0.72	0.85
CV	0.98	1.08	—
Max	2	3	+2
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dinamo Zagreb	1700	65	64.25	+0.75	55.0%	38	51	60	64	69	76	80
Rijeka	1683	65	65.00	+0.00	58.0%	50	55	61	65	69	76	82
Hajduk Split	1651	63	61.46	+1.54	55.0%	40	50	55	63	67	73	83
Osijek	1580	42	52.40	-10.40	7.0%	37	40	47	51	57	67	71
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1558	39	47.04	-8.04	15.0%	27	34	42	47	52	59	67
Varazdin	1549	49	43.58	+5.42	80.0%	28	32	39	43	48	54	64
Istra 1961	1548	48	40.18	+7.82	85.0%	16	29	35	40	45	51	65
Slaven Belupo	1517	48	37.61	+10.39	97.0%	23	28	34	37	42	47	57
Sibenik	1474	30	42.06	-12.06	2.0%	28	32	37	41	46	55	62
HNK Gorica	1452	37	35.76	+1.24	58.0%	21	25	30	35	41	47	55

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 18.5% * Slight Edge: 18.5% to 25.5% * Clear Edge: 25.5% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+20.00%

Slight Edge

45.00%30.00%25.00%

Elo Value

Home Edge

215 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

070.44600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.43 goals

Neutral

-2+0.33+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.13 * Tight Race: 0.13 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.46 * Runaway: 0.46 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.2

Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

34%

Rijeka, 2nd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.00/gm

Photo Finish

00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.65 * Some Luck: 5.65 to 8.48 * Lucky: 8.48 to 11.31 * Wild Swing: 11.31 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.03 * Close: 1.03 to 1.55 * Off: 1.55 to 2.07 * Way Off: 2.07 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

7.21 points

Some Luck

07.0718

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.80

Off

01.293

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

97.00%

Slaven Belupo

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

2.00%

Sibenik

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.22 * Lopsided: 0.22 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 67% * Clear Edge: 67% to 71% * Wide Edge: 71% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90% * Clear Edge: 90% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95.5% * Dominant: 95.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 58% * Some Drama: 58% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 64% * Very Frequent: 64% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 16.5% * Frequent: 16.5% to 19.5% * Very Frequent: 19.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.13

Balanced

00.170.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 83.81

1.61

Coin-Flip Parity

11.852.353.5

Interquartile Edge

65%

Slight Edge

50%65%71%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

81%

Even

50%83%100%

Close Games

Expected

71%

Very Frequent

0%62%100%

Blowouts

Expected

16%

Occasional

0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Lopsided: 0.46 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.79 * Near-Lock: 0.79 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 17% * Very Shaky: 17% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.63

Hard to Predict

00.612

Matchup Imbalance

0.37

Very Even

00.390.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.10

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.57

Some Carryover

00.570.791

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Very Upset-Prone

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

21%

Very Shaky

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.81

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.66

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.098

Well Within Noise

00.1220.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Rijeka	34.00%	29.00%	28.00%	8.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Dinamo Zagreb	37.00%	34.00%	23.00%	3.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	1.00%	—
Hajduk Split	25.00%	27.00%	26.00%	18.00%	3.00%	—	—	1.00%	—	—
Varazdin	—	2.00%	—	9.00%	17.00%	25.00%	18.00%	12.00%	10.00%	7.00%
Slaven Belupo	—	—	—	2.00%	5.00%	7.00%	20.00%	20.00%	23.00%	23.00%
Istra 1961	—	—	1.00%	6.00%	11.00%	14.00%	19.00%	13.00%	21.00%	15.00%
Osijek	4.00%	5.00%	13.00%	26.00%	27.00%	13.00%	8.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—
Lokomotiva Zagreb	—	2.00%	7.00%	19.00%	19.00%	20.00%	12.00%	10.00%	7.00%	4.00%
HNK Gorica	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	1.00%	9.00%	11.00%	16.00%	20.00%	39.00%
Sibenik	—	1.00%	1.00%	6.00%	14.00%	12.00%	12.00%	26.00%	16.00%	12.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Dinamo Zagreb	100%	—
Hajduk Split	100%	—
Osijek	100%	—
Rijeka	100%	—
Lokomotiva Zagreb	96.00%	4.00%
Varazdin	93.00%	7.00%
Sibenik	88.00%	12.00%
Istra 1961	85.00%	15.00%
Slaven Belupo	77.00%	23.00%
HNK Gorica	61.00%	39.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2024-08-02	Istra 1961	W 5-0	44.8	1684	1512	65.63%	21.29%	13.08%	+1.13	+8.7	3
2024-08-02	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-5	44.8	1512	1684	13.08%	21.29%	65.63%	-1.13	-8.7	0
2024-08-03	Varazdin	D 0-0	56.4	1492	1515	40.85%	31.30%	27.85%	+0.22	-0.4	1
2024-08-03	@ HNK Gorica	D 0-0	56.4	1515	1492	27.85%	31.30%	40.85%	-0.22	+0.4	1
2024-08-04	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 4-0	48.6	1639	1576	52.52%	27.97%	19.51%	+0.62	+11.2	3
2024-08-04	@ Rijeka	L 0-4	48.6	1576	1639	19.51%	27.97%	52.52%	-0.62	-11.2	0
2024-08-04	Sibenik	L 1-2	68.0	1611	1574	48.99%	29.29%	21.72%	+0.50	-6.1	0
2024-08-04	@ Osijek	W 2-1	68.0	1574	1611	21.72%	29.29%	48.99%	-0.50	+6.1	3
2024-08-04	Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	53.0	1637	1473	64.74%	21.81%	13.45%	+1.09	+1.9	3
2024-08-04	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	53.0	1473	1637	13.45%	21.81%	64.74%	-1.09	-1.9	0
2024-08-09	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	43.5	1581	1471	58.27%	25.33%	16.40%	+0.84	+4.9	6
2024-08-09	@ Sibenik	L 0-2	43.5	1471	1581	16.40%	25.33%	58.27%	-0.84	-4.9	0
2024-08-10	HNK Gorica	W 2-1	54.6	1503	1491	45.64%	30.30%	24.06%	+0.38	+3.6	3
2024-08-10	@ Istra 1961	L 1-2	54.6	1491	1503	24.06%	30.30%	45.64%	-0.38	-3.6	1
2024-08-11	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	65.6	1605	1692	31.76%	31.75%	36.49%	-0.08	-4.4	0
2024-08-11	@ Osijek	W 2-1	65.6	1692	1605	36.49%	31.75%	31.76%	+0.08	+4.4	6
2024-08-11	Hajduk Split	D 1-1	67.8	1565	1639	33.53%	31.81%	34.66%	-0.02	+0.0	1
2024-08-11	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	67.8	1639	1565	34.66%	31.81%	33.53%	+0.02	-0.0	4
2024-08-11	Rijeka	D 0-0	61.8	1515	1651	25.83%	30.85%	43.32%	-0.30	+0.5	2
2024-08-11	@ Varazdin	D 0-0	61.8	1651	1515	43.32%	30.85%	25.83%	+0.30	-0.5	4
2024-08-16	Sibenik	W 3-0	47.9	1697	1585	58.48%	25.23%	16.30%	+0.84	+7.0	9
2024-08-16	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	47.9	1585	1697	16.30%	25.23%	58.48%	-0.84	-7.0	6
2024-08-17	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	68.8	1466	1565	30.25%	31.63%	38.11%	-0.13	+0.2	1
2024-08-17	@ Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	68.8	1565	1466	38.11%	31.63%	30.25%	+0.13	-0.2	2
2024-08-18	Istra 1961	W 4-0	44.2	1650	1507	62.36%	23.16%	14.48%	+0.99	+8.0	7
2024-08-18	@ Rijeka	L 0-4	44.2	1507	1650	14.48%	23.16%	62.36%	-0.99	-8.0	3
2024-08-18	Osijek	D 2-2	70.9	1488	1601	28.44%	31.40%	40.16%	-0.20	+0.2	2
2024-08-18	@ HNK Gorica	D 2-2	70.9	1601	1488	40.16%	31.40%	28.44%	+0.20	-0.2	1
2024-08-18	Varazdin	W 2-1	55.8	1639	1516	59.96%	24.46%	15.58%	+0.90	+2.3	7
2024-08-18	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	55.8	1516	1639	15.58%	24.46%	59.96%	-0.90	-2.3	2
2024-08-23	Sibenik	L 0-1	59.0	1564	1578	42.12%	31.08%	26.80%	+0.26	-5.7	2
2024-08-23	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 1-0	59.0	1578	1564	26.80%	31.08%	42.12%	-0.26	+5.7	9
2024-08-24	HNK Gorica	W 2-1	53.6	1704	1488	70.43%	18.41%	11.16%	+1.33	+1.5	12
2024-08-24	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	53.6	1488	1704	11.16%	18.41%	70.43%	-1.33	-1.5	2
2024-08-24	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	43.2	1513	1466	50.35%	28.81%	20.84%	+0.55	+6.3	5
2024-08-24	@ Varazdin	L 0-2	43.2	1466	1513	20.84%	28.81%	50.35%	-0.55	-6.3	1
2024-08-25	Hajduk Split	D 1-1	66.6	1499	1641	25.07%	30.63%	44.30%	-0.34	+0.5	4
2024-08-25	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	66.6	1641	1499	44.30%	30.63%	25.07%	+0.34	-0.5	8
2024-08-25	Rijeka	L 0-2	56.9	1600	1658	35.92%	31.78%	32.30%	+0.06	-9.7	1
2024-08-25	@ Osijek	W 2-0	56.9	1658	1600	32.30%	31.78%	35.92%	-0.06	+9.7	10
2024-08-30	Sibenik	W 2-1	62.0	1486	1584	30.36%	31.64%	38.00%	-0.13	+5.0	5
2024-08-30	@ HNK Gorica	L 1-2	62.0	1584	1486	38.00%	31.64%	30.36%	+0.13	-5.0	9
2024-08-31	Istra 1961	L 0-1	51.7	1460	1499	38.58%	31.59%	29.83%	+0.15	-5.4	1
2024-08-31	@ Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	51.7	1499	1460	29.83%	31.59%	38.58%	-0.15	+5.4	7
2024-08-31	Osijek	W 1-0	53.9	1641	1591	50.75%	28.67%	20.59%	+0.56	+3.3	11
2024-08-31	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	53.9	1591	1641	20.59%	28.67%	50.75%	-0.56	-3.3	1
2024-09-01	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	70.3	1668	1705	38.82%	31.56%	29.62%	+0.15	-0.2	11
2024-09-01	@ Rijeka	D 1-1	70.3	1705	1668	29.62%	31.56%	38.82%	-0.15	+0.2	13
2024-09-01	Varazdin	L 0-1	58.6	1559	1520	49.33%	29.18%	21.50%	+0.51	-6.5	2
2024-09-01	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 1-0	58.6	1520	1559	21.50%	29.18%	49.33%	-0.51	+6.5	8
2024-09-13	Hajduk Split	L 0-1	64.9	1705	1644	52.22%	28.09%	19.69%	+0.61	-6.7	13
2024-09-13	@ Dinamo Zagreb	W 1-0	64.9	1644	1705	19.69%	28.09%	52.22%	-0.61	+6.7	14
2024-09-14	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	51.9	1504	1552	37.33%	31.70%	30.97%	+0.10	-9.9	7
2024-09-14	@ Istra 1961	W 2-0	51.9	1552	1504	30.97%	31.70%	37.33%	-0.10	+9.9	5
2024-09-14	Rijeka	L 0-1	52.9	1491	1668	21.84%	29.35%	48.80%	-0.49	-3.5	5
2024-09-14	@ HNK Gorica	W 1-0	52.9	1668	1491	48.80%	29.35%	21.84%	+0.49	+3.5	14
2024-09-15	Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	45.4	1587	1455	61.09%	23.86%	15.06%	+0.94	+2.3	4
2024-09-15	@ Osijek	L 0-1	45.4	1455	1587	15.06%	23.86%	61.09%	-0.94	-2.3	1
2024-09-15	Varazdin	D 0-0	60.7	1579	1526	51.15%	28.51%	20.34%	+0.57	-1.0	10
2024-09-15	@ Sibenik	D 0-0	60.7	1526	1579	20.34%	28.51%	51.15%	-0.57	+1.0	9
2024-09-20	Istra 1961	W 1-0	48.4	1527	1495	48.43%	29.47%	22.09%	+0.48	+3.5	12
2024-09-20	@ Varazdin	L 0-1	48.4	1495	1527	22.09%	29.47%	48.43%	-0.48	-3.5	7
2024-09-21	Dinamo Zagreb	W 4-1	62.7	1452	1699	16.64%	25.58%	57.79%	-0.82	+16.8	4
2024-09-21	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-4	62.7	1699	1452	57.79%	25.58%	16.64%	+0.82	-16.8	13
2024-09-21	HNK Gorica	W 4-1	48.0	1651	1488	64.59%	21.89%	13.51%	+1.08	+4.7	17
2024-09-21	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-4	48.0	1488	1651	13.51%	21.89%	64.59%	-1.08	-4.7	5
2024-09-22	Osijek	L 0-1	58.8	1562	1590	40.21%	31.39%	28.40%	+0.20	-5.5	5
2024-09-22	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 1-0	58.8	1590	1562	28.40%	31.39%	40.21%	-0.20	+5.5	7
2024-09-22	Sibenik	W 3-0	48.1	1671	1578	56.22%	26.34%	17.44%	+0.76	+7.6	17
2024-09-22	@ Rijeka	L 0-3	48.1	1578	1671	17.44%	26.34%	56.22%	-0.76	-7.6	10
2024-09-27	Istra 1961	D 0-0	59.7	1571	1491	54.54%	27.11%	18.35%	+0.70	-1.2	11
2024-09-27	@ Sibenik	D 0-0	59.7	1491	1571	18.35%	27.11%	54.54%	-0.70	+1.2	8
2024-09-28	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 5-1	50.1	1682	1557	60.18%	24.34%	15.48%	+0.91	+7.2	16
2024-09-28	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-5	50.1	1557	1682	15.48%	24.34%	60.18%	-0.91	-7.2	5
2024-09-29	Hajduk Split	D 0-0	65.1	1679	1656	47.19%	29.86%	22.95%	+0.43	-0.8	18
2024-09-29	@ Rijeka	D 0-0	65.1	1656	1679	22.95%	29.86%	47.19%	-0.43	+0.8	18
2024-09-29	Varazdin	W 2-1	57.1	1595	1530	52.67%	27.91%	19.42%	+0.63	+2.9	10
2024-09-29	@ Osijek	L 1-2	57.1	1530	1595	19.42%	27.91%	52.67%	-0.63	-2.9	12
2024-09-30	Slaven Belupo	W 2-1	53.0	1483	1469	45.98%	30.21%	23.81%	+0.39	+3.5	8
2024-09-30	@ HNK Gorica	L 1-2	53.0	1469	1483	23.81%	30.21%	45.98%	-0.39	-3.5	4
2024-10-04	Osijek	W 2-1	63.0	1492	1598	29.29%	31.52%	39.19%	-0.17	+5.1	11
2024-10-04	@ Istra 1961	L 1-2	63.0	1598	1492	39.19%	31.52%	29.29%	+0.17	-5.1	10
2024-10-05	HNK Gorica	W 2-0	44.7	1549	1487	52.39%	28.03%	19.59%	+0.62	+5.9	8
2024-10-05	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	44.7	1487	1549	19.59%	28.03%	52.39%	-0.62	-5.9	8
2024-10-05	Rijeka	D 0-0	62.2	1465	1678	18.92%	27.55%	53.53%	-0.66	+1.1	5
2024-10-05	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	62.2	1678	1465	53.53%	27.55%	18.92%	+0.66	-1.1	19
2024-10-06	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	54.8	1528	1689	23.18%	29.96%	46.86%	-0.42	-3.7	12
2024-10-06	@ Varazdin	W 1-0	54.8	1689	1528	46.86%	29.96%	23.18%	+0.42	+3.7	19
2024-10-06	Sibenik	W 4-0	47.9	1656	1569	55.47%	26.69%	17.84%	+0.73	+10.2	21
2024-10-06	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-4	47.9	1569	1656	17.84%	26.69%	55.47%	-0.73	-10.2	11
2024-10-18	Rijeka	D 2-2	74.8	1555	1677	27.44%	31.22%	41.35%	-0.24	+0.3	9
2024-10-18	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	74.8	1677	1555	41.35%	31.22%	27.44%	+0.24	-0.3	20
2024-10-19	Dinamo Zagreb	D 2-2	74.7	1497	1693	20.21%	28.44%	51.35%	-0.58	+0.7	12
2024-10-19	@ Istra 1961	D 2-2	74.7	1693	1497	51.35%	28.44%	20.21%	+0.58	-0.6	20
2024-10-19	Osijek	L 1-3	61.7	1559	1593	39.30%	31.51%	29.19%	+0.17	-8.9	11
2024-10-19	@ Sibenik	W 3-1	61.7	1593	1559	29.19%	31.51%	39.30%	-0.17	+8.9	13
2024-10-20	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	48.1	1467	1666	19.87%	28.22%	51.92%	-0.60	-6.0	5
2024-10-20	@ Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	48.1	1666	1467	51.92%	28.22%	19.87%	+0.60	+6.0	24
2024-10-20	HNK Gorica	W 2-1	53.8	1524	1481	49.83%	29.00%	21.17%	+0.53	+3.2	15
2024-10-20	@ Varazdin	L 1-2	53.8	1481	1524	21.17%	29.00%	49.83%	-0.53	-3.2	8
2024-10-25	Sibenik	D 2-2	68.0	1461	1550	31.42%	31.73%	36.85%	-0.09	+0.1	6
2024-10-25	@ Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	68.0	1550	1461	36.85%	31.73%	31.42%	+0.09	-0.1	12
2024-10-26	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	57.7	1672	1556	59.16%	24.88%	15.96%	+0.87	+2.4	27
2024-10-26	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	57.7	1556	1672	15.96%	24.88%	59.16%	-0.87	-2.4	9
2024-10-26	Varazdin	D 1-1	70.5	1677	1527	63.04%	22.78%	14.18%	+1.02	-1.4	21
2024-10-26	@ Rijeka	D 1-1	70.5	1527	1677	14.18%	22.78%	63.04%	-1.02	+1.4	16
2024-10-27	Istra 1961	W 1-0	48.9	1478	1498	41.23%	31.24%	27.54%	+0.23	+4.2	11
2024-10-27	@ HNK Gorica	L 0-1	48.9	1498	1478	27.54%	31.24%	41.23%	-0.23	-4.2	12
2024-10-27	Osijek	L 2-4	71.4	1692	1602	55.87%	26.50%	17.63%	+0.75	-10.4	20
2024-10-27	@ Dinamo Zagreb	W 4-2	71.4	1602	1692	17.63%	26.50%	55.87%	-0.75	+10.4	16
2024-11-01	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	51.8	1550	1682	26.27%	30.96%	42.78%	-0.28	-14.6	12
2024-11-01	@ Sibenik	W 4-0	51.8	1682	1550	42.78%	30.96%	26.27%	+0.28	+14.6	23
2024-11-02	HNK Gorica	W 2-0	44.2	1612	1482	60.81%	24.01%	15.19%	+0.93	+4.5	19
2024-11-02	@ Osijek	L 0-2	44.2	1482	1612	15.19%	24.01%	60.81%	-0.93	-4.5	11
2024-11-02	Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	57.4	1553	1461	56.18%	26.36%	17.46%	+0.76	-7.1	9
2024-11-02	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 1-0	57.4	1461	1553	17.46%	26.36%	56.18%	-0.76	+7.1	9
2024-11-03	Hajduk Split	W 1-0	61.2	1529	1675	24.70%	30.51%	44.79%	-0.35	+6.0	19
2024-11-03	@ Varazdin	L 0-1	61.2	1675	1529	44.79%	30.51%	24.70%	+0.35	-6.0	27
2024-11-03	Rijeka	L 0-1	52.9	1494	1675	21.39%	29.12%	49.50%	-0.52	-3.4	12
2024-11-03	@ Istra 1961	W 1-0	52.9	1675	1494	49.50%	29.12%	21.39%	+0.52	+3.4	24
2024-11-08	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-3	52.6	1536	1546	42.57%	31.00%	26.43%	+0.28	-15.9	12
2024-11-08	@ Sibenik	W 3-0	52.6	1546	1536	26.43%	31.00%	42.57%	-0.28	+15.9	12
2024-11-09	Dinamo Zagreb	D 2-2	74.7	1477	1696	18.45%	27.19%	54.36%	-0.69	+0.8	12
2024-11-09	@ HNK Gorica	D 2-2	74.7	1696	1477	54.36%	27.19%	18.45%	+0.69	-0.8	24
2024-11-09	Istra 1961	D 1-1	70.0	1669	1490	66.37%	20.86%	12.77%	+1.16	-1.6	28
2024-11-09	@ Hajduk Split	D 1-1	70.0	1490	1669	12.77%	20.86%	66.37%	-1.16	+1.6	13
2024-11-10	Osijek	D 1-1	70.5	1679	1617	52.25%	28.08%	19.67%	+0.61	-0.9	25
2024-11-10	@ Rijeka	D 1-1	70.5	1617	1679	19.67%	28.08%	52.25%	-0.61	+0.9	20
2024-11-10	Varazdin	D 1-1	61.5	1468	1535	34.63%	31.81%	33.56%	+0.02	-0.0	10
2024-11-10	@ Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	61.5	1535	1468	33.56%	31.81%	34.63%	-0.02	+0.0	20
2024-11-22	Slaven Belupo	L 2-3	65.1	1492	1468	47.32%	29.82%	22.86%	+0.44	-5.6	13
2024-11-22	@ Istra 1961	W 3-2	65.1	1468	1492	22.86%	29.82%	47.32%	-0.44	+5.6	13
2024-11-23	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	65.0	1535	1562	40.22%	31.39%	28.39%	+0.20	-0.3	21
2024-11-23	@ Varazdin	D 1-1	65.0	1562	1535	28.39%	31.39%	40.22%	-0.20	+0.3	13
2024-11-23	Rijeka	D 0-0	65.4	1696	1678	46.51%	30.06%	23.43%	+0.41	-0.7	25
2024-11-23	@ Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	65.4	1678	1696	23.43%	30.06%	46.51%	-0.41	+0.7	26
2024-11-24	Hajduk Split	D 2-2	75.5	1618	1667	37.10%	31.71%	31.19%	+0.10	-0.1	21
2024-11-24	@ Osijek	D 2-2	75.5	1667	1618	31.19%	31.71%	37.10%	-0.10	+0.1	29
2024-11-24	HNK Gorica	W 1-0	47.2	1520	1478	49.62%	29.07%	21.30%	+0.52	+3.4	15
2024-11-24	@ Sibenik	L 0-1	47.2	1478	1520	21.30%	29.07%	49.62%	-0.52	-3.4	12
2024-11-29	Sibenik	W 2-1	57.0	1534	1523	45.57%	30.31%	24.12%	+0.38	+3.6	24
2024-11-29	@ Varazdin	L 1-2	57.0	1523	1534	24.12%	30.31%	45.57%	-0.38	-3.6	15
2024-11-30	HNK Gorica	W 1-0	46.6	1678	1475	69.12%	19.21%	11.67%	+1.27	+1.7	29
2024-11-30	@ Rijeka	L 0-1	46.6	1475	1678	11.67%	19.21%	69.12%	-1.27	-1.7	12
2024-11-30	Osijek	W 3-2	69.3	1473	1618	24.91%	30.58%	44.52%	-0.34	+5.4	16
2024-11-30	@ Slaven Belupo	L 2-3	69.3	1618	1473	44.52%	30.58%	24.91%	+0.34	-5.4	21
2024-12-01	Dinamo Zagreb	W 1-0	58.9	1667	1695	40.20%	31.39%	28.41%	+0.20	+4.3	32
2024-12-01	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	58.9	1695	1667	28.41%	31.39%	40.20%	-0.20	-4.3	25
2024-12-01	Istra 1961	L 1-2	64.7	1562	1486	54.10%	27.30%	18.60%	+0.68	-6.5	13
2024-12-01	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	64.7	1486	1562	18.60%	27.30%	54.10%	-0.68	+6.5	16
2024-12-06	Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	70.9	1691	1479	70.02%	18.66%	11.32%	+1.31	-1.7	26
2024-12-06	@ Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	70.9	1479	1691	11.32%	18.66%	70.02%	-1.31	+1.7	17
2024-12-07	Hajduk Split	W 1-0	61.1	1473	1672	19.97%	28.28%	51.75%	-0.60	+6.7	15
2024-12-07	@ HNK Gorica	L 0-1	61.1	1672	1473	51.75%	28.28%	19.97%	+0.60	-6.7	32
2024-12-07	Varazdin	D 0-0	57.2	1493	1538	37.73%	31.66%	30.60%	+0.12	-0.2	17
2024-12-07	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	57.2	1538	1493	30.60%	31.66%	37.73%	-0.12	+0.2	25
2024-12-08	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-0	47.7	1612	1556	51.59%	28.34%	20.07%	+0.59	+8.8	24
2024-12-08	@ Osijek	L 0-3	47.7	1556	1612	20.07%	28.34%	51.59%	-0.59	-8.8	13
2024-12-08	Rijeka	L 0-1	54.5	1519	1680	23.28%	30.00%	46.72%	-0.42	-3.7	15
2024-12-08	@ Sibenik	W 1-0	54.5	1680	1519	46.72%	30.00%	23.28%	+0.42	+3.7	32
2024-12-13	HNK Gorica	W 2-1	53.8	1480	1480	44.13%	30.67%	25.20%	+0.33	+3.7	20
2024-12-13	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	53.8	1480	1480	25.20%	30.67%	44.13%	-0.33	-3.7	15
2024-12-14	Dinamo Zagreb	W 3-1	64.8	1547	1689	25.16%	30.66%	44.18%	-0.33	+9.7	16
2024-12-14	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-3	64.8	1689	1547	44.18%	30.66%	25.16%	+0.33	-9.7	26
2024-12-14	Sibenik	D 3-3	71.4	1493	1516	40.82%	31.30%	27.88%	+0.22	-0.2	18
2024-12-14	@ Istra 1961	D 3-3	71.4	1516	1493	27.88%	31.30%	40.82%	-0.22	+0.2	16
2024-12-15	Osijek	D 0-0	61.4	1538	1621	32.31%	31.78%	35.91%	-0.06	+0.1	26
2024-12-15	@ Varazdin	D 0-0	61.4	1621	1538	35.91%	31.78%	32.31%	+0.06	-0.1	25
2024-12-15	Rijeka	D 2-2	76.4	1665	1684	41.46%	31.20%	27.35%	+0.24	-0.3	33
2024-12-15	@ Hajduk Split	D 2-2	76.4	1684	1665	27.35%	31.20%	41.46%	-0.24	+0.3	33
2024-12-20	Istra 1961	D 2-2	73.9	1621	1492	60.59%	24.13%	15.29%	+0.92	-1.0	26
2024-12-20	@ Osijek	D 2-2	73.9	1492	1621	15.29%	24.13%	60.59%	-0.92	+1.0	19
2024-12-21	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-4	53.1	1476	1557	32.65%	31.79%	35.56%	-0.05	-11.1	15
2024-12-21	@ HNK Gorica	W 4-1	53.1	1557	1476	35.56%	31.79%	32.65%	+0.05	+11.1	19
2024-12-22	Hajduk Split	L 1-2	60.9	1516	1665	24.45%	30.43%	45.12%	-0.36	-3.6	16
2024-12-22	@ Sibenik	W 2-1	60.9	1665	1516	45.12%	30.43%	24.45%	+0.36	+3.6	36
2024-12-22	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	44.0	1684	1484	68.72%	19.45%	11.83%	+1.26	+3.2	36
2024-12-22	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	44.0	1484	1684	11.83%	19.45%	68.72%	-1.26	-3.2	20
2024-12-22	Varazdin	W 3-2	61.6	1679	1538	62.06%	23.33%	14.62%	+0.98	+2.0	29
2024-12-22	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-3	61.6	1538	1679	14.62%	23.33%	62.06%	-0.98	-2.0	26
2025-01-24	Sibenik	D 2-2	74.1	1620	1512	58.04%	25.45%	16.51%	+0.83	-0.9	27
2025-01-24	@ Osijek	D 2-2	74.1	1512	1620	16.51%	25.45%	58.04%	-0.83	+0.9	17
2025-01-25	Istra 1961	W 3-1	50.8	1681	1493	67.41%	20.24%	12.35%	+1.20	+3.0	32
2025-01-25	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	50.8	1493	1681	12.35%	20.24%	67.41%	-1.20	-3.0	19
2025-01-25	Varazdin	D 1-1	61.4	1465	1536	33.99%	31.81%	34.19%	+0.00	+0.0	16
2025-01-25	@ HNK Gorica	D 1-1	61.4	1536	1465	34.19%	31.81%	33.99%	+0.00	-0.0	27
2025-01-26	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 4-1	52.1	1687	1568	59.47%	24.72%	15.81%	+0.88	+5.7	39
2025-01-26	@ Rijeka	L 1-4	52.1	1568	1687	15.81%	24.72%	59.47%	-0.88	-5.7	19
2025-01-26	Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	64.5	1668	1481	67.37%	20.26%	12.37%	+1.20	-1.8	37
2025-01-26	@ Hajduk Split	D 0-0	64.5	1481	1668	12.37%	20.26%	67.37%	-1.20	+1.8	21
2025-01-31	HNK Gorica	D 0-0	55.0	1490	1465	47.49%	29.77%	22.74%	+0.45	-0.8	20
2025-01-31	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	55.0	1465	1490	22.74%	29.77%	47.49%	-0.45	+0.8	17
2025-02-01	Rijeka	W 1-0	62.0	1536	1693	23.64%	30.14%	46.22%	-0.40	+6.2	30
2025-02-01	@ Varazdin	L 0-1	62.0	1693	1536	46.22%	30.14%	23.64%	+0.40	-6.2	39
2025-02-01	Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	61.9	1513	1483	48.18%	29.56%	22.26%	+0.47	-0.7	18
2025-02-01	@ Sibenik	D 1-1	61.9	1483	1513	22.26%	29.56%	48.18%	-0.47	+0.7	22
2025-02-02	Dinamo Zagreb	W 2-1	66.2	1619	1684	34.87%	31.81%	33.32%	+0.03	+4.6	30
2025-02-02	@ Osijek	L 1-2	66.2	1684	1619	33.32%	31.81%	34.87%	-0.03	-4.6	32
2025-02-02	Hajduk Split	W 3-2	71.6	1562	1667	29.49%	31.55%	38.96%	-0.16	+4.9	22
2025-02-02	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 2-3	71.6	1667	1562	38.96%	31.55%	29.49%	+0.16	-4.9	37
2025-02-07	Sibenik	W 3-0	44.2	1680	1513	65.07%	21.62%	13.31%	+1.10	+5.5	35
2025-02-07	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	44.2	1513	1680	13.31%	21.62%	65.07%	-1.10	-5.5	18
2025-02-08	Osijek	W 1-0	58.3	1466	1624	23.53%	30.10%	46.38%	-0.41	+6.2	20
2025-02-08	@ HNK Gorica	L 0-1	58.3	1624	1466	46.38%	30.10%	23.53%	+0.41	-6.2	30
2025-02-08	Varazdin	W 1-0	50.8	1662	1542	59.48%	24.71%	15.81%	+0.88	+2.5	40
2025-02-08	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	50.8	1542	1662	15.81%	24.71%	59.48%	-0.88	-2.5	30
2025-02-09	Istra 1961	L 0-1	64.4	1687	1490	68.43%	19.62%	11.94%	+1.24	-8.1	39
2025-02-09	@ Rijeka	W 1-0	64.4	1490	1687	11.94%	19.62%	68.43%	-1.24	+8.2	23
2025-02-09	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	60.7	1483	1567	32.26%	31.77%	35.97%	-0.06	+4.8	25
2025-02-09	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	60.7	1567	1483	35.97%	31.77%	32.26%	+0.06	-4.8	22
2025-02-14	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	61.5	1507	1562	36.30%	31.76%	31.94%	+0.07	-4.9	18
2025-02-14	@ Sibenik	W 2-1	61.5	1562	1507	31.94%	31.76%	36.30%	-0.07	+4.9	25
2025-02-15	Hajduk Split	D 1-1	67.4	1498	1664	22.72%	29.76%	47.51%	-0.45	+0.7	24
2025-02-15	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	67.4	1664	1498	47.51%	29.76%	22.72%	+0.45	-0.7	41
2025-02-15	HNK Gorica	W 3-1	49.5	1685	1472	70.15%	18.58%	11.26%	+1.32	+2.6	38
2025-02-15	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	49.5	1472	1685	11.26%	18.58%	70.15%	-1.32	-2.6	20
2025-02-16	Rijeka	L 0-2	57.3	1618	1679	35.44%	31.79%	32.77%	+0.04	-9.6	30
2025-02-16	@ Osijek	W 2-0	57.3	1679	1618	32.77%	31.79%	35.44%	-0.04	+9.6	42
2025-02-16	Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	57.1	1540	1488	50.94%	28.59%	20.47%	+0.57	-6.6	30
2025-02-16	@ Varazdin	W 1-0	57.1	1488	1540	20.47%	28.59%	50.94%	-0.57	+6.6	28
2025-02-21	Varazdin	W 1-0	51.2	1567	1533	48.61%	29.42%	21.97%	+0.48	+3.5	28
2025-02-21	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	51.2	1533	1567	21.97%	29.42%	48.61%	-0.48	-3.5	30
2025-02-22	Dinamo Zagreb	W 4-0	53.3	1688	1688	44.11%	30.67%	25.22%	+0.33	+14.1	45
2025-02-22	@ Rijeka	L 0-4	53.3	1688	1688	25.22%	30.67%	44.11%	-0.33	-14.1	38
2025-02-22	Osijek	W 4-0	49.9	1664	1608	51.46%	28.39%	20.14%	+0.59	+11.6	44
2025-02-22	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-4	49.9	1608	1664	20.14%	28.39%	51.46%	-0.59	-11.5	30
2025-02-23	Istra 1961	D 0-0	56.1	1495	1498	43.55%	30.80%	25.65%	+0.31	-0.5	29
2025-02-23	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	56.1	1498	1495	25.65%	30.80%	43.55%	-0.31	+0.5	25
2025-02-23	Sibenik	W 1-0	49.3	1469	1502	39.46%	31.49%	29.06%	+0.17	+4.4	23
2025-02-23	@ HNK Gorica	L 0-1	49.3	1502	1469	29.06%	31.49%	39.46%	-0.17	-4.4	18
2025-02-28	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-2	65.8	1499	1570	33.94%	31.81%	34.24%	+0.00	+4.4	28
2025-02-28	@ Istra 1961	L 2-3	65.8	1570	1499	34.24%	31.81%	33.94%	+0.00	-4.4	28
2025-03-01	Rijeka	D 0-0	63.3	1474	1702	17.78%	26.64%	55.58%	-0.74	+1.2	24
2025-03-01	@ HNK Gorica	D 0-0	63.3	1702	1474	55.58%	26.64%	17.78%	+0.74	-1.2	46
2025-03-01	Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	66.7	1596	1494	57.36%	25.79%	16.86%	+0.80	-6.8	30
2025-03-01	@ Osijek	W 2-1	66.7	1494	1596	16.86%	25.79%	57.36%	-0.80	+6.8	32
2025-03-02	Hajduk Split	D 2-2	76.5	1674	1675	43.84%	30.73%	25.42%	+0.32	-0.4	39
2025-03-02	@ Dinamo Zagreb	D 2-2	76.5	1675	1674	25.42%	30.73%	43.84%	-0.32	+0.4	45
2025-03-02	Varazdin	L 0-2	51.4	1498	1530	39.60%	31.47%	28.93%	+0.18	-10.4	18
2025-03-02	@ Sibenik	W 2-0	51.4	1530	1498	28.93%	31.47%	39.60%	-0.18	+10.4	33
2025-03-07	Sibenik	D 1-1	71.5	1701	1487	70.22%	18.54%	11.24%	+1.32	-1.7	47
2025-03-07	@ Rijeka	D 1-1	71.5	1487	1701	11.24%	18.54%	70.22%	-1.32	+1.7	19
2025-03-08	Istra 1961	D 0-0	58.4	1540	1503	48.98%	29.29%	21.73%	+0.50	-0.8	34
2025-03-08	@ Varazdin	D 0-0	58.4	1503	1540	21.73%	29.29%	48.98%	-0.50	+0.9	29
2025-03-08	Osijek	W 3-0	50.6	1566	1590	40.76%	31.31%	27.93%	+0.22	+11.7	31
2025-03-08	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-3	50.6	1590	1566	27.93%	31.31%	40.76%	-0.22	-11.7	30
2025-03-09	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	53.4	1501	1673	22.21%	29.53%	48.27%	-0.47	-3.5	32
2025-03-09	@ Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	53.4	1673	1501	48.27%	29.53%	22.21%	+0.47	+3.5	42
2025-03-09	HNK Gorica	W 2-1	53.0	1675	1475	68.80%	19.41%	11.80%	+1.26	+1.6	48
2025-03-09	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	53.0	1475	1675	11.80%	19.41%	68.80%	-1.26	-1.6	24
2025-03-14	Slaven Belupo	L 0-3	48.1	1473	1498	40.66%	31.32%	28.01%	+0.21	-15.3	24
2025-03-14	@ HNK Gorica	W 3-0	48.1	1498	1473	28.01%	31.32%	40.66%	-0.21	+15.3	35
2025-03-15	Istra 1961	W 1-0	49.3	1489	1504	41.94%	31.11%	26.94%	+0.26	+4.2	22
2025-03-15	@ Sibenik	L 0-1	49.3	1504	1489	26.94%	31.11%	41.94%	-0.26	-4.2	29
2025-03-15	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-0	47.9	1677	1578	56.98%	25.97%	17.05%	+0.79	+7.4	45
2025-03-15	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	47.9	1578	1677	17.05%	25.97%	56.98%	-0.79	-7.4	31
2025-03-16	Hajduk Split	W 3-0	52.4	1699	1677	47.08%	29.89%	23.02%	+0.43	+10.0	50
2025-03-16	@ Rijeka	L 0-3	52.4	1677	1699	23.02%	29.89%	47.08%	-0.43	-10.0	48
2025-03-16	Varazdin	D 0-0	60.9	1578	1539	49.26%	29.20%	21.54%	+0.51	-0.9	31
2025-03-16	@ Osijek	D 0-0	60.9	1539	1578	21.54%	29.20%	49.26%	-0.51	+0.9	35
2025-03-28	HNK Gorica	D 1-1	64.4	1570	1458	58.62%	25.15%	16.23%	+0.85	-1.2	32
2025-03-28	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	64.4	1458	1570	16.23%	25.15%	58.62%	-0.85	+1.2	25
2025-03-29	Osijek	W 2-1	61.4	1500	1577	33.17%	31.80%	35.02%	-0.03	+4.8	32
2025-03-29	@ Istra 1961	L 1-2	61.4	1577	1500	35.02%	31.80%	33.17%	+0.03	-4.8	31
2025-03-29	Rijeka	W 2-1	69.3	1513	1709	20.14%	28.39%	51.48%	-0.59	+6.3	38
2025-03-29	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	69.3	1709	1513	51.48%	28.39%	20.14%	+0.59	-6.3	50
2025-03-30	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	68.6	1540	1684	24.92%	30.58%	44.49%	-0.34	+0.5	36
2025-03-30	@ Varazdin	D 1-1	68.6	1684	1540	44.49%	30.58%	24.92%	+0.34	-0.5	46
2025-03-30	Sibenik	W 1-0	47.8	1667	1493	65.83%	21.17%	12.99%	+1.13	+1.9	51
2025-03-30	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	47.8	1493	1667	12.99%	21.17%	65.83%	-1.13	-1.9	22
2025-04-04	HNK Gorica	D 0-0	57.4	1541	1459	54.77%	27.01%	18.22%	+0.71	-1.2	37
2025-04-04	@ Varazdin	D 0-0	57.4	1459	1541	18.22%	27.01%	54.77%	-0.71	+1.2	26
2025-04-05	Dinamo Zagreb	W 3-0	57.2	1505	1684	21.61%	29.23%	49.16%	-0.50	+17.7	35
2025-04-05	@ Istra 1961	L 0-3	57.2	1684	1505	49.16%	29.23%	21.61%	+0.50	-17.7	46
2025-04-05	Hajduk Split	L 0-1	54.7	1519	1669	24.35%	30.40%	45.26%	-0.37	-3.8	38
2025-04-05	@ Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	54.7	1669	1519	45.26%	30.40%	24.35%	+0.37	+3.8	54
2025-04-06	Osijek	W 4-1	55.1	1491	1572	32.61%	31.79%	35.60%	-0.05	+11.8	25
2025-04-06	@ Sibenik	L 1-4	55.1	1572	1491	35.60%	31.79%	32.61%	+0.05	-11.8	31
2025-04-06	Rijeka	L 0-1	56.9	1569	1703	26.01%	30.89%	43.10%	-0.30	-4.1	32
2025-04-06	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 1-0	56.9	1703	1569	43.10%	30.89%	26.01%	+0.30	+4.0	53
2025-04-11	Sibenik	W 2-0	46.0	1515	1503	45.72%	30.27%	24.00%	+0.38	+7.1	41
2025-04-11	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	46.0	1503	1515	24.00%	30.27%	45.72%	-0.38	-7.1	25
2025-04-12	Istra 1961	W 3-2	62.3	1460	1523	35.29%	31.80%	32.92%	+0.04	+4.3	29
2025-04-12	@ HNK Gorica	L 2-3	62.3	1523	1460	32.92%	31.80%	35.29%	-0.04	-4.3	35
2025-04-12	Osijek	W 2-0	48.6	1666	1561	57.78%	25.58%	16.64%	+0.82	+5.0	49
2025-04-12	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	48.6	1561	1666	16.64%	25.58%	57.78%	-0.82	-5.0	31
2025-04-13	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	70.4	1673	1565	58.05%	25.44%	16.51%	+0.83	-1.2	55
2025-04-13	@ Hajduk Split	D 1-1	70.4	1565	1673	16.51%	25.44%	58.05%	-0.83	+1.2	33
2025-04-13	Varazdin	W 1-0	49.9	1707	1539	65.16%	21.57%	13.28%	+1.11	+2.0	56
2025-04-13	@ Rijeka	L 0-1	49.9	1539	1707	13.28%	21.57%	65.16%	-1.11	-2.0	37
2025-04-17	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	48.6	1496	1671	21.94%	29.40%	48.66%	-0.49	-12.5	25
2025-04-17	@ Sibenik	W 4-0	48.6	1671	1496	48.66%	29.40%	21.94%	+0.49	+12.5	52
2025-04-18	Hajduk Split	D 1-1	68.2	1537	1672	25.99%	30.89%	43.13%	-0.30	+0.5	38
2025-04-18	@ Varazdin	D 1-1	68.2	1672	1537	43.13%	30.89%	25.99%	+0.30	-0.5	56
2025-04-18	Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	55.9	1566	1523	49.92%	28.97%	21.11%	+0.53	-12.3	33
2025-04-18	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-0	55.9	1523	1566	21.11%	28.97%	49.92%	-0.53	+12.3	44
2025-04-19	HNK Gorica	L 0-1	57.6	1556	1465	55.96%	26.46%	17.58%	+0.75	-7.1	31
2025-04-19	@ Osijek	W 1-0	57.6	1465	1556	17.58%	26.46%	55.96%	-0.75	+7.1	32
2025-04-19	Rijeka	W 2-0	59.8	1518	1709	20.58%	28.66%	50.76%	-0.56	+12.4	38
2025-04-19	@ Istra 1961	L 0-2	59.8	1709	1518	50.76%	28.66%	20.58%	+0.56	-12.5	56
2025-04-22	Sibenik	L 1-2	64.2	1554	1483	53.40%	27.61%	19.00%	+0.65	-6.5	33
2025-04-22	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	64.2	1483	1554	19.00%	27.61%	53.40%	-0.65	+6.5	28
2025-04-22	Varazdin	L 0-1	57.1	1535	1538	43.63%	30.78%	25.59%	+0.31	-5.9	44
2025-04-22	@ Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	57.1	1538	1535	25.59%	30.78%	43.63%	-0.31	+5.9	41
2025-04-23	Dinamo Zagreb	W 1-0	61.7	1472	1684	18.97%	27.59%	53.44%	-0.66	+6.9	35
2025-04-23	@ HNK Gorica	L 0-1	61.7	1684	1472	53.44%	27.59%	18.97%	+0.66	-6.9	52
2025-04-23	Istra 1961	L 0-1	64.2	1671	1531	62.00%	23.36%	14.65%	+0.98	-7.6	56
2025-04-23	@ Hajduk Split	W 1-0	64.2	1531	1671	14.65%	23.36%	62.00%	-0.98	+7.6	41
2025-04-23	Osijek	L 0-2	62.1	1697	1548	62.91%	22.85%	14.24%	+1.02	-14.5	56
2025-04-23	@ Rijeka	W 2-0	62.1	1548	1697	14.24%	22.85%	62.91%	-1.02	+14.5	34
2025-04-26	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	58.8	1544	1548	43.52%	30.80%	25.67%	+0.31	+3.8	44
2025-04-26	@ Varazdin	L 1-2	58.8	1548	1544	25.67%	30.80%	43.52%	-0.31	-3.8	33
2025-04-27	Hajduk Split	W 2-0	57.0	1563	1664	29.99%	31.60%	38.40%	-0.14	+10.1	37
2025-04-27	@ Osijek	L 0-2	57.0	1664	1563	38.40%	31.60%	29.99%	+0.14	-10.1	56
2025-04-27	Rijeka	W 1-0	57.9	1677	1682	43.27%	30.86%	25.87%	+0.30	+4.0	55
2025-04-27	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	57.9	1682	1677	25.87%	30.86%	43.27%	-0.30	-4.0	56
2025-04-28	HNK Gorica	D 0-0	55.3	1490	1479	45.58%	30.31%	24.11%	+0.38	-0.7	29
2025-04-28	@ Sibenik	D 0-0	55.3	1479	1490	24.11%	30.31%	45.58%	-0.38	+0.7	36
2025-04-28	Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	64.3	1538	1529	45.32%	30.38%	24.30%	+0.37	-0.6	42
2025-04-28	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	64.3	1529	1538	24.30%	30.38%	45.32%	-0.37	+0.6	45
2025-05-02	Sibenik	D 1-1	63.8	1548	1489	51.82%	28.25%	19.92%	+0.60	-0.9	45
2025-05-02	@ Varazdin	D 1-1	63.8	1489	1548	19.92%	28.25%	51.82%	-0.60	+0.9	30
2025-05-03	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	65.2	1653	1681	40.24%	31.39%	28.37%	+0.20	-9.1	56
2025-05-03	@ Hajduk Split	W 3-1	65.2	1681	1653	28.37%	31.39%	40.24%	-0.20	+9.1	58
2025-05-03	Istra 1961	D 0-0	59.4	1544	1538	44.87%	30.49%	24.64%	+0.36	-0.6	34
2025-05-03	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 0-0	59.4	1538	1544	24.64%	30.49%	44.87%	-0.36	+0.6	43
2025-05-04	HNK Gorica	W 2-1	53.2	1678	1479	68.62%	19.51%	11.87%	+1.25	+1.6	59
2025-05-04	@ Rijeka	L 1-2	53.2	1479	1678	11.87%	19.51%	68.62%	-1.25	-1.6	36
2025-05-04	Osijek	L 1-4	57.1	1530	1573	37.94%	31.65%	30.42%	+0.12	-12.3	45
2025-05-04	@ Slaven Belupo	W 4-1	57.1	1573	1530	30.42%	31.65%	37.94%	-0.12	+12.3	40
2025-05-09	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	66.7	1585	1543	49.73%	29.03%	21.23%	+0.52	-0.8	41
2025-05-09	@ Osijek	D 1-1	66.7	1543	1585	21.23%	29.03%	49.73%	-0.52	+0.8	35
2025-05-10	Rijeka	L 0-1	52.6	1490	1680	20.69%	28.72%	50.59%	-0.55	-3.3	30
2025-05-10	@ Sibenik	W 1-0	52.6	1680	1490	50.59%	28.72%	20.69%	+0.55	+3.3	62
2025-05-10	Slaven Belupo	W 5-0	45.1	1690	1517	65.70%	21.25%	13.05%	+1.13	+8.6	61
2025-05-10	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-5	45.1	1517	1690	13.05%	21.25%	65.70%	-1.13	-8.6	45
2025-05-11	Hajduk Split	D 1-1	66.3	1478	1644	22.70%	29.76%	47.54%	-0.45	+0.7	37
2025-05-11	@ HNK Gorica	D 1-1	66.3	1644	1478	47.54%	29.76%	22.70%	+0.45	-0.7	57
2025-05-11	Varazdin	D 0-0	59.3	1538	1547	42.89%	30.93%	26.17%	+0.29	-0.5	44
2025-05-11	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	59.3	1547	1538	26.17%	30.93%	42.89%	-0.29	+0.5	46
2025-05-16	Sibenik	W 3-0	43.3	1538	1487	50.87%	28.62%	20.51%	+0.56	+9.0	47
2025-05-16	@ Istra 1961	L 0-3	43.3	1487	1538	20.51%	28.62%	50.87%	-0.56	-9.0	30
2025-05-17	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	69.1	1544	1698	23.87%	30.23%	45.90%	-0.39	+0.6	36
2025-05-17	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	69.1	1698	1544	45.90%	30.23%	23.87%	+0.39	-0.6	62
2025-05-17	Osijek	W 2-1	61.5	1547	1585	38.81%	31.56%	29.63%	+0.15	+4.2	49
2025-05-17	@ Varazdin	L 1-2	61.5	1585	1547	29.63%	31.56%	38.81%	-0.15	-4.2	41
2025-05-18	HNK Gorica	W 4-0	42.7	1509	1478	48.13%	29.57%	22.30%	+0.47	+12.7	48
2025-05-18	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-4	42.7	1478	1509	22.30%	29.57%	48.13%	-0.47	-12.7	37
2025-05-18	Rijeka	W 2-1	65.4	1644	1683	38.52%	31.59%	29.89%	+0.14	+4.2	60
2025-05-18	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	65.4	1683	1644	29.89%	31.59%	38.52%	-0.14	-4.2	62
2025-05-24	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-3	47.4	1466	1545	32.89%	31.80%	35.31%	-0.04	-13.2	37
2025-05-24	@ HNK Gorica	W 3-0	47.4	1545	1466	35.31%	31.80%	32.89%	+0.04	+13.2	39
2025-05-25	Hajduk Split	L 0-1	52.2	1478	1648	22.39%	29.61%	47.99%	-0.46	-3.6	30
2025-05-25	@ Sibenik	W 1-0	52.2	1648	1478	47.99%	29.61%	22.39%	+0.46	+3.6	63
2025-05-25	Istra 1961	D 1-1	66.5	1580	1547	48.58%	29.43%	21.99%	+0.48	-0.8	42
2025-05-25	@ Osijek	D 1-1	66.5	1547	1580	21.99%	29.43%	48.58%	-0.48	+0.7	48
2025-05-25	Slaven Belupo	W 2-0	46.2	1679	1521	63.99%	22.24%	13.77%	+1.06	+4.0	65
2025-05-25	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	46.2	1521	1679	13.77%	22.24%	63.99%	-1.06	-4.0	48
2025-05-25	Varazdin	W 1-0	50.7	1698	1551	62.69%	22.97%	14.34%	+1.01	+2.2	65
2025-05-25	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	50.7	1551	1698	14.34%	22.97%	62.69%	-1.01	-2.2	49

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2025-02-09	11.94%	Istra 1961	1490	1	@ Rijeka	1687	0
2	2025-04-23	14.24%	Osijek	1548	2	@ Rijeka	1697	0
3	2025-04-23	14.65%	Istra 1961	1531	1	@ Hajduk Split	1671	0
4	2024-09-21	16.64%	@ Slaven Belupo	1452	4	Dinamo Zagreb	1699	1
5	2025-03-01	16.86%	Slaven Belupo	1494	2	@ Osijek	1596	1
6	2024-11-02	17.46%	Slaven Belupo	1461	1	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1553	0
7	2025-04-19	17.58%	HNK Gorica	1465	1	@ Osijek	1556	0
8	2024-10-27	17.63%	Osijek	1602	4	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1692	2
9	2024-12-01	18.60%	Istra 1961	1486	2	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1562	1
10	2025-04-23	18.97%	@ HNK Gorica	1472	1	Dinamo Zagreb	1684	0
11	2025-04-22	19.00%	Sibenik	1483	2	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1554	1
12	2024-09-13	19.69%	Hajduk Split	1644	1	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1705	0
13	2024-12-07	19.97%	@ HNK Gorica	1473	1	Hajduk Split	1672	0
14	2025-03-29	20.14%	@ Slaven Belupo	1513	2	Rijeka	1709	1
15	2025-02-16	20.47%	Slaven Belupo	1488	1	@ Varazdin	1540	0
16	2025-04-19	20.58%	@ Istra 1961	1518	2	Rijeka	1709	0
17	2025-04-18	21.11%	Slaven Belupo	1523	2	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1566	0
18	2024-09-01	21.50%	Varazdin	1520	1	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1559	0
19	2025-04-05	21.61%	@ Istra 1961	1505	3	Dinamo Zagreb	1684	0
20	2024-08-04	21.72%	Sibenik	1574	2	@ Osijek	1611	1
21	2024-11-22	22.86%	Slaven Belupo	1468	3	@ Istra 1961	1492	2
22	2025-02-08	23.53%	@ HNK Gorica	1466	1	Osijek	1624	0
23	2025-02-01	23.64%	@ Varazdin	1536	1	Rijeka	1693	0
24	2024-11-03	24.70%	@ Varazdin	1529	1	Hajduk Split	1675	0
25	2024-11-30	24.91%	@ Slaven Belupo	1473	3	Osijek	1618	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-04-05	17.65	@ Istra 1961	3	1505	21.61%	Dinamo Zagreb	0	1684	49.16%	29.23%
2	2024-09-21	16.77	@ Slaven Belupo	4	1452	16.64%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1699	57.79%	25.58%
3	2024-11-08	15.86	Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1546	26.43%	@ Sibenik	0	1536	42.57%	31.00%
4	2025-03-14	15.34	Slaven Belupo	3	1498	28.01%	@ HNK Gorica	0	1473	40.66%	31.32%
5	2024-11-01	14.61	Dinamo Zagreb	4	1682	42.78%	@ Sibenik	0	1550	26.27%	30.96%
6	2025-04-23	14.54	Osijek	2	1548	14.24%	@ Rijeka	0	1697	62.91%	22.85%
7	2025-02-22	14.14	@ Rijeka	4	1688	44.11%	Dinamo Zagreb	0	1688	25.22%	30.67%
8	2025-05-24	13.22	Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1545	35.31%	@ HNK Gorica	0	1466	32.89%	31.80%
9	2025-05-18	12.71	@ Slaven Belupo	4	1509	48.13%	HNK Gorica	0	1478	22.30%	29.57%
10	2025-04-17	12.53	Dinamo Zagreb	4	1671	48.66%	@ Sibenik	0	1496	21.94%	29.40%
11	2025-04-19	12.45	@ Istra 1961	2	1518	20.58%	Rijeka	0	1709	50.76%	28.66%
12	2025-05-04	12.31	Osijek	4	1573	30.42%	@ Slaven Belupo	1	1530	37.94%	31.65%
13	2025-04-18	12.29	Slaven Belupo	2	1523	21.11%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1566	49.92%	28.97%
14	2025-04-06	11.77	@ Sibenik	4	1491	32.61%	Osijek	1	1572	35.60%	31.79%
15	2025-03-08	11.74	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1566	40.76%	Osijek	0	1590	27.93%	31.31%
16	2025-02-22	11.56	@ Hajduk Split	4	1664	51.46%	Osijek	0	1608	20.14%	28.39%
17	2024-08-04	11.19	@ Rijeka	4	1639	52.52%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1576	19.51%	27.97%
18	2024-12-21	11.10	Lokomotiva Zagreb	4	1557	35.56%	@ HNK Gorica	1	1476	32.65%	31.79%
19	2025-03-02	10.36	Varazdin	2	1530	28.93%	@ Sibenik	0	1498	39.60%	31.47%
20	2024-10-27	10.35	Osijek	4	1602	17.63%	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1692	55.87%	26.50%
21	2024-10-06	10.19	@ Hajduk Split	4	1656	55.47%	Sibenik	0	1569	17.84%	26.69%
22	2025-04-27	10.14	@ Osijek	2	1563	29.99%	Hajduk Split	0	1664	38.40%	31.60%
23	2025-03-16	10.01	@ Rijeka	3	1699	47.08%	Hajduk Split	0	1677	23.02%	29.89%
24	2024-09-14	9.93	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1552	30.97%	@ Istra 1961	0	1504	37.33%	31.70%
25	2024-12-14	9.72	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1547	25.16%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1689	44.18%	30.66%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-03-02	76.5	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1674	43.84%	Hajduk Split	2	1675	25.42%	30.73%
2	2024-12-15	76.4	@ Hajduk Split	2	1665	41.46%	Rijeka	2	1684	27.35%	31.20%
3	2024-11-24	75.5	@ Osijek	2	1618	37.10%	Hajduk Split	2	1667	31.19%	31.71%
4	2024-10-18	74.8	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1555	27.44%	Rijeka	2	1677	41.35%	31.22%
5	2024-10-19	74.7	@ Istra 1961	2	1497	20.21%	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1693	51.35%	28.44%
6	2024-11-09	74.7	@ HNK Gorica	2	1477	18.45%	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1696	54.36%	27.19%
7	2025-01-24	74.1	@ Osijek	2	1620	58.04%	Sibenik	2	1512	16.51%	25.45%
8	2024-12-20	73.9	@ Osijek	2	1621	60.59%	Istra 1961	2	1492	15.29%	24.13%
9	2025-02-02	71.6	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1562	29.49%	Hajduk Split	2	1667	38.96%	31.55%
10	2025-03-07	71.5	@ Rijeka	1	1701	70.22%	Sibenik	1	1487	11.24%	18.54%
11	2024-10-27	71.4	Osijek	4	1602	17.63%	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1692	55.87%	26.50%
12	2024-12-14	71.4	@ Istra 1961	3	1493	40.82%	Sibenik	3	1516	27.88%	31.30%
13	2024-08-18	70.9	@ HNK Gorica	2	1488	28.44%	Osijek	2	1601	40.16%	31.40%
14	2024-12-06	70.9	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1	1691	70.02%	Slaven Belupo	1	1479	11.32%	18.66%
15	2024-10-26	70.5	@ Rijeka	1	1677	63.04%	Varazdin	1	1527	14.18%	22.78%
16	2024-11-10	70.5	@ Rijeka	1	1679	52.25%	Osijek	1	1617	19.67%	28.08%
17	2025-04-13	70.4	@ Hajduk Split	1	1673	58.05%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1565	16.51%	25.44%
18	2024-09-01	70.3	@ Rijeka	1	1668	38.82%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1705	29.62%	31.56%
19	2024-11-09	70.0	@ Hajduk Split	1	1669	66.37%	Istra 1961	1	1490	12.77%	20.86%
20	2024-11-30	69.3	@ Slaven Belupo	3	1473	24.91%	Osijek	2	1618	44.52%	30.58%
21	2025-03-29	69.3	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1513	20.14%	Rijeka	1	1709	51.48%	28.39%
22	2025-05-17	69.1	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1544	23.87%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1698	45.90%	30.23%
23	2024-08-17	68.8	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1466	30.25%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1565	38.11%	31.63%
24	2025-03-30	68.6	@ Varazdin	1	1540	24.92%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1684	44.49%	30.58%
25	2025-04-18	68.2	@ Varazdin	1	1537	25.99%	Hajduk Split	1	1672	43.13%	30.89%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-05-18	42.7	@ Slaven Belupo	4	1509	48.13%	HNK Gorica	0	1478	22.30%	29.57%
2	2024-08-24	43.2	@ Varazdin	2	1513	50.35%	Slaven Belupo	0	1466	20.84%	28.81%
3	2025-05-16	43.3	@ Istra 1961	3	1538	50.87%	Sibenik	0	1487	20.51%	28.62%
4	2024-08-09	43.5	@ Sibenik	2	1581	58.27%	Slaven Belupo	0	1471	16.40%	25.33%
5	2024-12-22	44.0	@ Rijeka	2	1684	68.72%	Slaven Belupo	0	1484	11.83%	19.45%
6	2024-08-18	44.2	@ Rijeka	4	1650	62.36%	Istra 1961	0	1507	14.48%	23.16%
7	2024-11-02	44.2	@ Osijek	2	1612	60.81%	HNK Gorica	0	1482	15.19%	24.01%
8	2025-02-07	44.2	@ Dinamo Zagreb	3	1680	65.07%	Sibenik	0	1513	13.31%	21.62%
9	2024-10-05	44.7	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1549	52.39%	HNK Gorica	0	1487	19.59%	28.03%
10	2024-08-02	44.8	@ Dinamo Zagreb	5	1684	65.63%	Istra 1961	0	1512	13.08%	21.29%
11	2025-05-10	45.1	@ Dinamo Zagreb	5	1690	65.70%	Slaven Belupo	0	1517	13.05%	21.25%
12	2024-09-15	45.4	@ Osijek	1	1587	61.09%	Slaven Belupo	0	1455	15.06%	23.86%
13	2025-04-11	46.0	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1515	45.72%	Sibenik	0	1503	24.00%	30.27%
14	2025-05-25	46.2	@ Rijeka	2	1679	63.99%	Slaven Belupo	0	1521	13.77%	22.24%
15	2024-11-30	46.6	@ Rijeka	1	1678	69.12%	HNK Gorica	0	1475	11.67%	19.21%
16	2024-11-24	47.2	@ Sibenik	1	1520	49.62%	HNK Gorica	0	1478	21.30%	29.07%
17	2025-05-24	47.4	Lokomotiva Zagreb	3	1545	35.31%	@ HNK Gorica	0	1466	32.89%	31.80%
18	2024-12-08	47.7	@ Osijek	3	1612	51.59%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1556	20.07%	28.34%
19	2025-03-30	47.8	@ Hajduk Split	1	1667	65.83%	Sibenik	0	1493	12.99%	21.17%
20	2024-08-16	47.9	@ Dinamo Zagreb	3	1697	58.48%	Sibenik	0	1585	16.30%	25.23%
21	2024-10-06	47.9	@ Hajduk Split	4	1656	55.47%	Sibenik	0	1569	17.84%	26.69%
22	2025-03-15	47.9	@ Dinamo Zagreb	3	1677	56.98%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1578	17.05%	25.97%
23	2024-09-21	48.0	@ Hajduk Split	4	1651	64.59%	HNK Gorica	1	1488	13.51%	21.89%
24	2024-09-22	48.1	@ Rijeka	3	1671	56.22%	Sibenik	0	1578	17.44%	26.34%
25	2024-10-20	48.1	Hajduk Split	2	1666	51.92%	@ Slaven Belupo	0	1467	19.87%	28.22%