Home / Leagues / Croatia / Hrvatska nogometna liga / 2023-24
‹ ›

2023-24 Hrvatska nogometna liga Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Dinamo Zagreb

82 points · 25th Title

Last Title: 2022-23

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dinamo Zagreb

10.73 points above expected

82 points · 71.27 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Rudes

20.57 points below expected

9 points · 29.57 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dinamo Zagreb Champion 36 25 7 4 82 67 30 +37 71.27 +10.73
2 Rijeka 36 23 5 8 74 69 30 +39 63.84 +10.16
3 Hajduk Split 36 21 5 10 68 54 26 +28 65.98 +2.02
4 Osijek 36 16 9 11 57 62 43 +19 54.10 +2.90
5 Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 12 15 9 51 52 45 +7 50.56 +0.44
6 Varazdin 36 10 12 14 42 39 47 -8 42.79 -0.79
7 HNK Gorica 36 11 8 17 41 35 50 -15 44.25 -3.25
8 Istra 1961 36 10 11 15 41 36 54 -18 39.49 +1.51
9 Slaven Belupo 36 9 6 21 33 43 69 -26 36.94 -3.94
10 Rudes 36 1 6 29 9 22 85 -63 29.57 -20.57

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dinamo Zagreb 82 71.27 +10.73
2 Rijeka 74 63.84 +10.16
3 Osijek 57 54.10 +2.90
4 Hajduk Split 68 65.98 +2.02
5 Istra 1961 41 39.49 +1.51

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rudes 9 29.57 -20.57
2 Slaven Belupo 33 36.94 -3.94
3 HNK Gorica 41 44.25 -3.25
4 Varazdin 42 42.79 -0.79
5 Lokomotiva Zagreb 51 50.56 +0.44

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dinamo Zagreb 11 Mar 10 – May 18 1 in 290
2 Varazdin 2 May 5 – May 11 1 in 38
3 Hajduk Split 6 Oct 27 – Dec 2 1 in 36
4 Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 Dec 16 – Jan 28 1 in 34
5 Rijeka 7 Mar 3 – Apr 21 1 in 28

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rijeka 4 Apr 28 – May 19 1 in 207
2 HNK Gorica 6 Dec 15 – Feb 18 1 in 128
3 Hajduk Split 4 Mar 16 – Apr 14 1 in 128
4 Slaven Belupo 6 Feb 25 – Apr 6 1 in 52
5 Rudes 9 Mar 9 – May 10 1 in 48

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dinamo Zagreb 18 Jan 27 – May 26 1 in 47
2 Lokomotiva Zagreb 7 Dec 3 – Feb 10 1 in 41
3 Rijeka 11 Sep 3 – Dec 2 1 in 37
4 Istra 1961 5 Apr 20 – May 17 1 in 16
5 Hajduk Split 8 Oct 27 – Dec 17 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rudes 24 Jul 22 – Feb 24 1 in 386
2 Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 Oct 8 – Dec 8 1 in 43
3 Varazdin 8 Oct 6 – Dec 10 1 in 28
4 HNK Gorica 8 Dec 2 – Feb 18 1 in 25
5 Osijek 6 Nov 4 – Dec 10 1 in 17

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dinamo Zagreb 1804 82 +16 13 10.6 +2.4
Rijeka 1723 74 -53 3 9.1 -6.1
Hajduk Split 1716 68 +8 10 10.3 -0.3
Osijek 1678 57 +56 12 6.8 +5.2
Lokomotiva Zagreb 1626 51 -8 7 7.9 -0.9
Varazdin 1532 42 +2 6 4.4 +1.6
Istra 1961 1528 41 +27 10 7.4 +2.6
HNK Gorica 1496 41 -19 6 6.4 -0.4
Slaven Belupo 1463 33 -16 3 4.3 -1.3
Rudes 1319 9 -12 2 2.6 -0.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DZ HG HS I1 LZ OSI RIJ RUD SB VAR
Dinamo Zagreb —
2-1-1
8.27
1-1-2
6.36
4-0-0
8.63
2-1-1
7.70
3-1-0
7.35
3-1-0
6.29
3-1-0
9.80
4-0-0
9.05
3-1-0
8.59
HNK Gorica
1-1-2
2.86
 —
1-0-3
3.27
2-2-0
5.83
1-2-1
4.82
1-0-3
4.18
0-0-4
3.52
3-0-1
7.62
1-2-1
6.48
1-1-2
5.76
Hajduk Split
2-1-1
4.67
3-0-1
7.83
 —
2-1-1
8.24
2-1-1
7.25
1-1-2
6.64
1-0-3
5.86
4-0-0
9.11
4-0-0
8.21
2-1-1
7.89
Istra 1961
0-0-4
2.56
0-2-2
5.19
1-1-2
2.89
 —
0-2-2
4.54
2-1-1
3.39
0-1-3
2.97
3-1-0
6.96
2-2-0
5.50
2-1-1
4.98
Lokomotiva Zagreb
1-1-2
3.39
1-2-1
6.20
1-1-2
3.81
2-2-0
6.48
 —
0-3-1
4.89
1-1-2
3.90
2-2-0
8.27
3-0-1
7.10
1-3-0
6.39
Osijek
0-1-3
3.72
3-0-1
6.85
2-1-1
4.39
1-1-2
7.70
1-3-0
6.13
 —
1-1-2
4.46
4-0-0
8.16
3-0-1
7.35
1-2-1
7.00
Rijeka
0-1-3
4.73
4-0-0
7.57
3-0-1
5.16
3-1-0
8.15
2-1-1
7.15
2-1-1
6.56
 —
4-0-0
8.49
3-0-1
8.49
2-1-1
7.79
Rudes
0-1-3
1.57
1-0-3
3.48
0-0-4
2.15
0-1-3
4.09
0-2-2
2.88
0-0-4
2.98
0-0-4
2.70
 —
0-1-3
4.47
0-1-3
3.71
Slaven Belupo
0-0-4
2.18
1-2-1
4.55
0-0-4
2.91
0-2-2
5.52
1-0-3
3.96
1-0-3
3.71
1-0-3
2.67
3-1-0
6.56
 —
2-1-1
4.62
Varazdin
0-1-3
2.58
2-1-1
5.26
1-1-2
3.21
1-1-2
6.04
0-3-1
4.64
1-2-1
4.04
1-1-2
3.31
3-1-0
7.35
1-1-2
6.40
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +12.9
Allowed 0.91 -11.2
Differential 0.97 +6.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.22%10.28%6.11%5.83%1.94%0.28%31.67%
110.28%8.89%6.39%2.50%0.83%0.83%29.72%
26.11%6.39%5.00%1.94%0.56%0.56%20.56%
35.83%2.50%1.94%1.67%0.28%—12.22%
41.94%0.83%0.56%0.28%0.56%—4.17%
5+0.28%0.83%0.56%———1.67%
Total31.67%29.72%20.56%12.22%4.17%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.26 1.26 1.89
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%—2.78%——11.11%
122.22%5.56%5.56%———33.33%
28.33%13.89%5.56%———27.78%
311.11%—5.56%2.78%——19.44%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
Total47.22%27.78%19.44%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 0.83 +1.03
SD 1.27 0.94 1.42
CV 0.68 1.13 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%8.33%8.33%13.89%——41.67%
18.33%8.33%8.33%2.78%2.78%—30.56%
25.56%8.33%2.78%2.78%——19.44%
35.56%—————5.56%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total30.56%25.00%22.22%19.44%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.39 -0.42
SD 1.06 1.20 1.75
CV 1.09 0.87 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%2.78%———19.44%
122.22%11.11%11.11%———44.44%
28.33%8.33%————16.67%
38.33%2.78%————11.11%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
Total44.44%38.89%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.72 +0.78
SD 1.32 0.74 1.57
CV 0.88 1.03 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%8.33%11.11%2.78%2.78%47.22%
15.56%11.11%—2.78%2.78%—22.22%
28.33%5.56%5.56%———19.44%
32.78%2.78%————5.56%
42.78%———2.78%—5.56%
5+———————
Total30.56%30.56%13.89%13.89%8.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.50 -0.50
SD 1.20 1.50 2.09
CV 1.20 1.00 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%8.33%——2.78%—22.22%
15.56%19.44%5.56%5.56%——36.11%
22.78%8.33%5.56%——2.78%19.44%
38.33%2.78%2.78%5.56%——19.44%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total30.56%38.89%13.89%11.11%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.25 +0.19
SD 1.13 1.25 1.64
CV 0.78 1.00 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%—5.56%——22.22%
15.56%13.89%8.33%———27.78%
211.11%2.78%5.56%2.78%——22.22%
38.33%5.56%2.78%———16.67%
4—2.78%—2.78%2.78%—8.33%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total27.78%41.67%16.67%11.11%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.19 +0.53
SD 1.45 1.06 1.75
CV 0.84 0.89 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%5.56%2.78%———11.11%
113.89%5.56%5.56%5.56%——30.56%
211.11%11.11%5.56%—2.78%—30.56%
313.89%—2.78%———16.67%
48.33%—————8.33%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total52.78%22.22%16.67%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.92 0.83 +1.08
SD 1.32 1.08 1.95
CV 0.69 1.30 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%16.67%16.67%8.33%—63.89%
1——8.33%5.56%—5.56%19.44%
2—2.78%—5.56%——8.33%
3———5.56%2.78%—8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%13.89%25.00%33.33%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 2.36 -1.75
SD 0.96 1.33 1.38
CV 1.58 0.57 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%5.56%8.33%5.56%—47.22%
12.78%2.78%2.78%—2.78%2.78%13.89%
2—2.78%8.33%5.56%—2.78%19.44%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
42.78%2.78%2.78%———8.33%
5+———————
Total11.11%36.11%25.00%13.89%8.33%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.92 -0.72
SD 1.37 1.42 2.02
CV 1.15 0.74 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%5.56%16.67%———30.56%
116.67%11.11%8.33%2.78%——38.89%
25.56%—11.11%2.78%2.78%—22.22%
3—5.56%—2.78%——8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.56%22.22%36.11%8.33%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.31 -0.22
SD 0.94 1.09 1.29
CV 0.87 0.84 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dinamo Zagreb 1804 82 71.27 +10.73 93.0% 47 59 66 71 77 83 90
Rijeka 1723 74 63.84 +10.16 91.0% 45 51 58 64 70 76 84
Hajduk Split 1716 68 65.98 +2.02 66.0% 48 53 61 65 71 79 83
Osijek 1678 57 54.10 +2.90 66.0% 33 42 49 54 59 66 71
Lokomotiva Zagreb 1626 51 50.56 +0.44 58.0% 32 37 45 49 57 65 71
Varazdin 1532 42 42.79 -0.79 47.0% 25 34 37 43 47 54 63
Istra 1961 1528 41 39.49 +1.51 62.0% 26 29 35 39 44 50 60
HNK Gorica 1496 41 44.25 -3.25 32.0% 29 33 39 45 49 55 60
Slaven Belupo 1463 33 36.94 -3.94 32.0% 16 25 32 37 41 48 55
Rudes 1319 9 29.57 -20.57 0.0% 11 18 24 29 35 42 54

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 18.5% * Slight Edge: 18.5% to 25.5% * Clear Edge: 25.5% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.89%
No Edge
42.78%23.33%33.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 30.96 Elo pts.
158 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.29 goals
Neutral
-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.13 * Tight Race: 0.13 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.46 * Runaway: 0.46 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.5
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
54%
Dinamo Zagreb, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Tight Race
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.92 * Some Luck: 5.92 to 8.88 * Lucky: 8.88 to 11.84 * Wild Swing: 11.84 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.83 * Close: 0.83 to 1.24 * Off: 1.24 to 1.65 * Way Off: 1.65 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.26 points
Some Luck
07.4018
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.40
Pinpoint
01.032.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.00%
Dinamo Zagreb
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Rudes
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.22 * Lopsided: 0.22 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 67% * Clear Edge: 67% to 71% * Wide Edge: 71% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90% * Clear Edge: 90% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95.5% * Dominant: 95.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 58% * Some Drama: 58% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 64% * Very Frequent: 64% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 16.5% * Frequent: 16.5% to 19.5% * Very Frequent: 19.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Lopsided
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 146.76
2.70
Wide Separation
11.852.353.5
Interquartile Edge
76%
Wide Edge
50%65%71%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
94%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Very Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Lopsided: 0.46 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.79 * Near-Lock: 0.79 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 17% * Very Shaky: 17% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Very Even
00.390.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.15
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.83
Near-Lock
00.570.791
Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Shaky Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.30
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.30
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.075
Well Within Noise
00.1270.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dinamo Zagreb54.00%32.00%11.00%2.00%1.00%—————
Rijeka22.00%22.00%27.00%21.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%———
Hajduk Split24.00%33.00%29.00%8.00%4.00%2.00%————
Osijek—7.00%18.00%36.00%18.00%10.00%7.00%3.00%1.00%—
Lokomotiva Zagreb—5.00%12.00%19.00%24.00%15.00%12.00%7.00%4.00%2.00%
Varazdin—1.00%—3.00%16.00%19.00%23.00%21.00%15.00%2.00%
HNK Gorica——2.00%8.00%17.00%32.00%15.00%14.00%6.00%6.00%
Istra 1961——1.00%—10.00%12.00%19.00%25.00%24.00%9.00%
Slaven Belupo———2.00%5.00%7.00%16.00%27.00%28.00%15.00%
Rudes———1.00%—1.00%7.00%3.00%22.00%66.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Dinamo Zagreb 100% —
Hajduk Split 100% —
Osijek 100% —
Rijeka 100% —
Lokomotiva Zagreb 98.00% 2.00%
Varazdin 98.00% 2.00%
HNK Gorica 94.00% 6.00%
Istra 1961 91.00% 9.00%
Slaven Belupo 85.00% 15.00%
Rudes 34.00% 66.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2023-07-21 Hajduk Split L 1-270.1 1733 1668 50.61% 23.97% 25.42%+0.61 -10.0 0
2023-07-21 @ Dinamo Zagreb W 2-170.1 1668 1733 25.42% 23.97% 50.61%-0.61 +10.0 3
2023-07-22 Rudes W 4-047.2 1606 1546 49.97% 24.05% 25.98%+0.58 +22.2 3
2023-07-22 @ Rijeka L 0-447.2 1546 1606 25.98% 24.05% 49.97%-0.58 -22.2 0
2023-07-22 Slaven Belupo W 6-148.5 1611 1519 53.96% 23.48% 22.57%+0.78 +20.0 3
2023-07-22 @ Osijek L 1-648.5 1519 1611 22.57% 23.48% 53.96%-0.78 -20.0 0
2023-07-23 Istra 1961 D 1-167.7 1564 1550 43.87% 24.58% 31.55%+0.28 -0.6 1
2023-07-23 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-167.7 1550 1564 31.55% 24.58% 43.87%-0.28 +0.5 1
2023-07-23 Varazdin D 1-166.8 1545 1544 42.14% 24.66% 33.20%+0.20 -0.4 1
2023-07-23 @ HNK Gorica D 1-166.8 1544 1545 33.20% 24.66% 42.14%-0.20 +0.4 1
2023-07-28 Slaven Belupo D 2-271.1 1544 1499 48.12% 24.25% 27.63%+0.48 -0.7 2
2023-07-28 @ Varazdin D 2-271.1 1499 1544 27.63% 24.25% 48.12%-0.48 +0.7 1
2023-07-29 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-348.4 1551 1723 20.88% 23.10% 56.02%-0.90 -14.0 1
2023-07-29 @ Istra 1961 W 3-048.4 1723 1551 56.02% 23.10% 20.88%+0.90 +14.0 3
2023-07-29 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 1-055.1 1544 1563 39.33% 24.74% 35.93%+0.08 +8.0 4
2023-07-29 @ HNK Gorica L 0-155.1 1563 1544 35.93% 24.74% 39.33%-0.08 -8.0 1
2023-07-30 Osijek L 3-467.1 1524 1631 27.57% 24.25% 48.18%-0.49 -5.7 0
2023-07-30 @ Rudes W 4-367.1 1631 1524 48.18% 24.25% 27.57%+0.49 +5.7 6
2023-07-30 Rijeka W 1-056.6 1678 1628 48.76% 24.19% 27.05%+0.51 +6.4 6
2023-07-30 @ Hajduk Split L 0-156.6 1628 1678 27.05% 24.19% 48.76%-0.51 -6.4 3
2023-08-04 Varazdin D 3-376.7 1555 1543 43.65% 24.59% 31.76%+0.27 -0.3 2
2023-08-04 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 3-376.7 1543 1555 31.76% 24.59% 43.65%-0.27 +0.3 3
2023-08-05 HNK Gorica D 0-068.0 1737 1552 63.83% 21.12% 15.05%+1.37 -2.7 4
2023-08-05 @ Dinamo Zagreb D 0-068.0 1552 1737 15.05% 21.12% 63.83%-1.37 +2.7 5
2023-08-05 Rudes W 3-262.5 1499 1518 39.41% 24.73% 35.86%+0.08 +7.2 4
2023-08-05 @ Slaven Belupo L 2-362.5 1518 1499 35.86% 24.73% 39.41%-0.08 -7.2 0
2023-08-06 Istra 1961 W 6-047.7 1622 1537 53.01% 23.63% 23.36%+0.73 +29.7 6
2023-08-06 @ Rijeka L 0-647.7 1537 1622 23.36% 23.63% 53.01%-0.73 -29.7 1
2023-08-12 Rudes W 2-047.7 1544 1511 46.50% 24.40% 29.10%+0.41 +12.9 6
2023-08-12 @ Varazdin L 0-247.7 1511 1544 29.10% 24.40% 46.50%-0.41 -12.9 0
2023-08-13 Osijek D 4-479.9 1507 1637 25.10% 23.92% 50.97%-0.63 +0.7 2
2023-08-13 @ Istra 1961 D 4-479.9 1637 1507 50.97% 23.92% 25.10%+0.63 -0.6 7
2023-08-13 Slaven Belupo W 3-044.7 1685 1507 63.16% 21.33% 15.52%+1.32 +10.5 9
2023-08-13 @ Hajduk Split L 0-344.7 1507 1685 15.52% 21.33% 63.16%-1.32 -10.6 4
2023-08-19 Istra 1961 D 2-269.5 1496 1508 40.35% 24.72% 34.93%+0.12 -0.2 5
2023-08-19 @ Slaven Belupo D 2-269.5 1508 1496 34.93% 24.72% 40.35%-0.12 +0.2 3
2023-08-20 Hajduk Split L 0-248.2 1498 1695 18.72% 22.50% 58.78%-1.05 -8.7 0
2023-08-20 @ Rudes W 2-048.2 1695 1498 58.78% 22.50% 18.72%+1.05 +8.7 12
2023-08-20 HNK Gorica W 1-053.5 1636 1555 52.64% 23.69% 23.68%+0.71 +5.7 10
2023-08-20 @ Osijek L 0-153.5 1555 1636 23.68% 23.69% 52.64%-0.71 -5.7 5
2023-08-20 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-158.9 1651 1555 54.38% 23.40% 22.21%+0.81 +5.1 9
2023-08-20 @ Rijeka L 1-258.9 1555 1651 22.21% 23.40% 54.38%-0.81 -5.1 2
2023-08-25 Slaven Belupo D 2-271.2 1549 1496 49.14% 24.14% 26.71%+0.53 -0.8 6
2023-08-25 @ HNK Gorica D 2-271.2 1496 1549 26.71% 24.14% 49.14%-0.53 +0.8 6
2023-08-26 Hajduk Split L 1-260.3 1557 1704 23.28% 23.62% 53.10%-0.74 -5.3 6
2023-08-26 @ Varazdin W 2-160.3 1704 1557 53.10% 23.62% 23.28%+0.74 +5.3 15
2023-08-26 Osijek D 2-275.6 1550 1642 29.42% 24.43% 46.15%-0.39 +0.6 3
2023-08-26 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 2-275.6 1642 1550 46.15% 24.43% 29.42%+0.39 -0.6 11
2023-08-27 Rijeka W 2-162.0 1735 1656 52.26% 23.74% 23.99%+0.69 +5.5 7
2023-08-27 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-262.0 1656 1735 23.99% 23.74% 52.26%-0.69 -5.5 9
2023-08-27 Rudes D 0-058.9 1508 1489 44.61% 24.53% 30.85%+0.32 -0.7 4
2023-08-27 @ Istra 1961 D 0-058.9 1489 1508 30.85% 24.53% 44.61%-0.32 +0.7 1
2023-09-01 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-152.6 1497 1550 34.43% 24.70% 40.87%-0.14 -7.8 6
2023-09-01 @ Slaven Belupo W 1-052.6 1550 1497 40.87% 24.70% 34.43%+0.14 +7.8 6
2023-09-02 HNK Gorica L 0-248.6 1490 1548 33.77% 24.68% 41.55%-0.18 -14.5 1
2023-09-02 @ Rudes W 2-048.6 1548 1490 41.55% 24.68% 33.77%+0.18 +14.5 9
2023-09-02 Istra 1961 L 0-165.6 1709 1507 65.42% 20.60% 13.98%+1.47 -13.2 15
2023-09-02 @ Hajduk Split W 1-065.6 1507 1709 13.98% 20.60% 65.42%-1.47 +13.2 7
2023-09-03 Dinamo Zagreb L 2-368.5 1642 1740 28.67% 24.36% 46.97%-0.43 -6.0 11
2023-09-03 @ Osijek W 3-268.5 1740 1642 46.97% 24.36% 28.67%+0.43 +6.0 10
2023-09-03 Varazdin D 2-276.1 1651 1551 54.77% 23.34% 21.90%+0.83 -1.1 10
2023-09-03 @ Rijeka D 2-276.1 1551 1651 21.90% 23.34% 54.77%-0.83 +1.2 7
2023-09-15 Rudes W 1-048.5 1558 1475 52.80% 23.66% 23.54%+0.72 +5.7 9
2023-09-15 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-148.5 1475 1558 23.54% 23.66% 52.80%-0.72 -5.7 1
2023-09-16 Osijek W 2-163.4 1650 1636 43.95% 24.57% 31.48%+0.28 +6.8 13
2023-09-16 @ Rijeka L 1-263.4 1636 1650 31.48% 24.57% 43.95%-0.28 -6.8 11
2023-09-16 Slaven Belupo W 3-043.5 1746 1489 70.29% 18.76% 10.95%+1.82 +7.3 13
2023-09-16 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-343.5 1489 1746 10.95% 18.76% 70.29%-1.82 -7.3 6
2023-09-17 Hajduk Split W 2-168.7 1563 1696 24.75% 23.87% 51.38%-0.65 +10.1 12
2023-09-17 @ HNK Gorica L 1-268.7 1696 1563 51.38% 23.87% 24.75%+0.65 -10.1 15
2023-09-17 Istra 1961 W 1-051.9 1552 1521 46.35% 24.41% 29.24%+0.40 +6.8 10
2023-09-17 @ Varazdin L 0-151.9 1521 1552 29.24% 24.41% 46.35%-0.40 -6.9 7
2023-09-22 Varazdin D 1-169.9 1629 1559 51.17% 23.90% 24.94%+0.64 -1.2 12
2023-09-22 @ Osijek D 1-169.9 1559 1629 24.94% 23.90% 51.17%-0.64 +1.2 11
2023-09-23 HNK Gorica L 0-153.8 1514 1573 33.68% 24.68% 41.64%-0.18 -7.7 7
2023-09-23 @ Istra 1961 W 1-053.8 1573 1514 41.64% 24.68% 33.68%+0.18 +7.7 15
2023-09-23 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 1-053.2 1686 1564 57.32% 22.83% 19.84%+0.97 +4.9 18
2023-09-23 @ Hajduk Split L 0-153.2 1564 1686 19.84% 22.83% 57.32%-0.97 -4.9 9
2023-09-24 Dinamo Zagreb L 1-547.5 1470 1753 12.80% 19.96% 67.24%-1.60 -9.4 1
2023-09-24 @ Rudes W 5-147.5 1753 1470 67.24% 19.96% 12.80%+1.60 +9.4 16
2023-09-24 Rijeka L 0-151.0 1482 1656 20.65% 23.04% 56.31%-0.91 -5.1 6
2023-09-24 @ Slaven Belupo W 1-051.0 1656 1482 56.31% 23.04% 20.65%+0.91 +5.1 16
2023-09-30 HNK Gorica W 1-056.2 1561 1581 39.17% 24.74% 36.09%+0.07 +8.1 14
2023-09-30 @ Varazdin L 0-156.2 1581 1561 36.09% 24.74% 39.17%-0.07 -8.1 15
2023-09-30 Osijek W 1-059.9 1477 1628 22.91% 23.54% 53.55%-0.76 +11.1 9
2023-09-30 @ Slaven Belupo L 0-159.9 1628 1477 53.55% 23.54% 22.91%+0.76 -11.1 12
2023-10-01 Dinamo Zagreb W 1-062.9 1691 1763 31.99% 24.60% 43.41%-0.26 +9.3 21
2023-10-01 @ Hajduk Split L 0-162.9 1763 1691 43.41% 24.60% 31.99%+0.26 -9.3 16
2023-10-01 Rijeka L 1-255.2 1460 1662 18.40% 22.40% 59.20%-1.08 -4.3 1
2023-10-01 @ Rudes W 2-155.2 1662 1460 59.20% 22.40% 18.40%+1.08 +4.3 19
2023-10-02 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-447.2 1506 1559 34.54% 24.71% 40.75%-0.14 -27.9 7
2023-10-02 @ Istra 1961 W 4-047.2 1559 1506 40.75% 24.71% 34.54%+0.14 +27.9 12
2023-10-06 Varazdin W 3-266.5 1488 1569 30.84% 24.53% 44.63%-0.32 +8.5 12
2023-10-06 @ Slaven Belupo L 2-366.5 1569 1488 44.63% 24.53% 30.84%+0.32 -8.5 14
2023-10-07 Hajduk Split W 1-060.7 1666 1700 37.15% 24.75% 38.11%-0.02 +8.4 22
2023-10-07 @ Rijeka L 0-160.7 1700 1666 38.11% 24.75% 37.15%+0.02 -8.4 21
2023-10-07 Rudes W 3-041.7 1616 1456 61.40% 21.84% 16.77%+1.21 +11.4 15
2023-10-07 @ Osijek L 0-341.7 1456 1616 16.77% 21.84% 61.40%-1.21 -11.4 1
2023-10-08 HNK Gorica D 1-169.0 1587 1573 43.99% 24.57% 31.44%+0.29 -0.6 13
2023-10-08 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-169.0 1573 1587 31.44% 24.57% 43.99%-0.29 +0.6 16
2023-10-08 Istra 1961 W 3-043.0 1754 1478 71.76% 18.13% 10.11%+1.94 +6.7 19
2023-10-08 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-343.0 1478 1754 10.11% 18.13% 71.76%-1.94 -6.7 7
2023-10-20 Slaven Belupo D 0-056.8 1445 1496 34.73% 24.71% 40.56%-0.13 +0.3 2
2023-10-20 @ Rudes D 0-056.8 1496 1445 40.56% 24.71% 34.73%+0.13 -0.3 13
2023-10-21 Dinamo Zagreb W 2-171.3 1573 1760 19.58% 22.76% 57.66%-0.99 +11.2 19
2023-10-21 @ HNK Gorica L 1-271.3 1760 1573 57.66% 22.76% 19.58%+0.99 -11.2 19
2023-10-21 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 0-063.9 1560 1586 38.29% 24.75% 36.96%+0.03 -0.1 15
2023-10-21 @ Varazdin D 0-063.9 1586 1560 36.96% 24.75% 38.29%-0.03 +0.1 14
2023-10-22 Osijek L 0-260.3 1692 1628 50.48% 23.99% 25.54%+0.60 -19.9 21
2023-10-22 @ Hajduk Split W 2-060.3 1628 1692 25.54% 23.99% 50.48%-0.60 +19.9 18
2023-10-22 Rijeka D 1-169.3 1472 1674 18.28% 22.36% 59.36%-1.09 +2.0 8
2023-10-22 @ Istra 1961 D 1-169.3 1674 1472 59.36% 22.36% 18.28%+1.09 -2.0 23
2023-10-27 Hajduk Split L 0-151.7 1496 1672 20.55% 23.02% 56.43%-0.92 -5.1 13
2023-10-27 @ Slaven Belupo W 1-051.7 1672 1496 56.43% 23.02% 20.55%+0.92 +5.1 24
2023-10-28 Istra 1961 W 3-150.8 1648 1473 62.78% 21.44% 15.78%+1.30 +6.4 21
2023-10-28 @ Osijek L 1-350.8 1473 1648 15.78% 21.44% 62.78%-1.30 -6.4 8
2023-10-28 Varazdin D 0-059.3 1445 1560 26.73% 24.15% 49.12%-0.53 +1.1 3
2023-10-28 @ Rudes D 0-059.3 1560 1445 49.12% 24.15% 26.73%+0.53 -1.1 16
2023-10-29 HNK Gorica W 1-054.5 1672 1584 53.41% 23.57% 23.03%+0.75 +5.6 26
2023-10-29 @ Rijeka L 0-154.5 1584 1672 23.03% 23.57% 53.41%-0.75 -5.6 19
2023-10-29 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-158.7 1749 1586 61.62% 21.77% 16.61%+1.23 +3.9 22
2023-10-29 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-258.7 1586 1749 16.61% 21.77% 61.62%-1.23 -3.9 14
2023-11-03 Rijeka D 1-171.2 1583 1678 29.06% 24.39% 46.55%-0.41 +0.8 15
2023-11-03 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-171.2 1678 1583 46.55% 24.39% 29.06%+0.41 -0.8 27
2023-11-04 Osijek W 3-055.1 1579 1654 31.56% 24.58% 43.86%-0.28 +25.7 22
2023-11-04 @ HNK Gorica L 0-355.1 1654 1579 43.86% 24.58% 31.56%+0.28 -25.7 21
2023-11-04 Rudes W 1-047.0 1677 1446 68.04% 19.66% 12.30%+1.66 +3.0 27
2023-11-04 @ Hajduk Split L 0-147.0 1446 1677 12.30% 19.66% 68.04%-1.66 -3.0 3
2023-11-05 Dinamo Zagreb D 1-172.5 1559 1753 18.99% 22.59% 58.43%-1.03 +1.9 17
2023-11-05 @ Varazdin D 1-172.5 1753 1559 58.43% 22.59% 18.99%+1.03 -1.9 23
2023-11-05 Slaven Belupo W 2-046.5 1467 1491 38.66% 24.74% 36.59%+0.05 +15.4 11
2023-11-05 @ Istra 1961 L 0-246.5 1491 1467 36.59% 24.74% 38.66%-0.05 -15.4 13
2023-11-08 Hajduk Split L 0-159.1 1628 1680 34.74% 24.71% 40.55%-0.13 -7.9 21
2023-11-08 @ Osijek W 1-059.1 1680 1628 40.55% 24.71% 34.74%+0.13 +7.8 30
2023-11-10 HNK Gorica D 0-062.1 1475 1605 25.18% 23.93% 50.88%-0.62 +1.3 14
2023-11-10 @ Slaven Belupo D 0-062.1 1605 1475 50.88% 23.93% 25.18%+0.62 -1.3 23
2023-11-11 Istra 1961 L 0-442.7 1443 1482 36.42% 24.74% 38.84%-0.05 -29.1 3
2023-11-11 @ Rudes W 4-042.7 1482 1443 38.84% 24.74% 36.42%+0.05 +29.1 14
2023-11-11 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-170.2 1621 1583 47.05% 24.35% 28.60%+0.43 -0.8 22
2023-11-11 @ Osijek D 1-170.2 1583 1621 28.60% 24.35% 47.05%-0.43 +0.8 16
2023-11-12 Dinamo Zagreb D 2-278.6 1677 1751 31.73% 24.59% 43.68%-0.27 +0.4 28
2023-11-12 @ Rijeka D 2-278.6 1751 1677 43.68% 24.59% 31.73%+0.27 -0.4 24
2023-11-12 Varazdin W 3-155.3 1688 1561 57.87% 22.71% 19.42%+1.00 +7.8 33
2023-11-12 @ Hajduk Split L 1-355.3 1561 1688 19.42% 22.71% 57.87%-1.00 -7.8 17
2023-11-24 Slaven Belupo L 1-361.3 1584 1477 55.69% 23.16% 21.15%+0.88 -18.8 16
2023-11-24 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-161.3 1477 1584 21.15% 23.16% 55.69%-0.88 +18.8 17
2023-11-25 Osijek W 2-160.0 1751 1620 58.30% 22.62% 19.09%+1.03 +4.4 27
2023-11-25 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-260.0 1620 1751 19.09% 22.62% 58.30%-1.03 -4.4 22
2023-11-25 Rijeka L 0-251.5 1553 1677 25.68% 24.01% 50.32%-0.59 -11.6 17
2023-11-25 @ Varazdin W 2-051.5 1677 1553 50.32% 24.01% 25.68%+0.59 +11.6 31
2023-11-26 Hajduk Split L 0-249.0 1512 1696 19.84% 22.83% 57.33%-0.97 -9.2 14
2023-11-26 @ Istra 1961 W 2-049.0 1696 1512 57.33% 22.83% 19.84%+0.97 +9.2 36
2023-11-26 Rudes W 3-038.9 1603 1414 64.24% 20.99% 14.77%+1.39 +10.0 26
2023-11-26 @ HNK Gorica L 0-338.9 1414 1603 14.77% 20.99% 64.24%-1.39 -10.0 3
2023-12-01 Varazdin W 2-050.3 1502 1541 36.48% 24.74% 38.78%-0.05 +16.1 17
2023-12-01 @ Istra 1961 L 0-250.3 1541 1502 38.78% 24.74% 36.48%+0.05 -16.1 17
2023-12-02 HNK Gorica W 3-049.7 1705 1613 53.84% 23.50% 22.67%+0.78 +15.1 39
2023-12-02 @ Hajduk Split L 0-349.7 1613 1705 22.67% 23.50% 53.84%-0.78 -15.1 26
2023-12-02 Rijeka D 0-067.1 1615 1689 31.76% 24.59% 43.65%-0.27 +0.6 23
2023-12-02 @ Osijek D 0-067.1 1689 1615 43.65% 24.59% 31.76%+0.27 -0.6 32
2023-12-03 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 0-058.2 1404 1565 21.89% 23.33% 54.78%-0.83 +1.7 4
2023-12-03 @ Rudes D 0-058.2 1565 1404 54.78% 23.33% 21.89%+0.83 -1.7 17
2023-12-04 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-247.5 1496 1755 14.23% 20.73% 65.03%-1.45 -6.6 17
2023-12-04 @ Slaven Belupo W 2-047.5 1755 1496 65.03% 20.73% 14.23%+1.45 +6.6 30
2023-12-08 Hajduk Split D 1-171.9 1564 1720 22.40% 23.44% 54.15%-0.79 +1.5 18
2023-12-08 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-171.9 1720 1564 54.15% 23.44% 22.40%+0.79 -1.5 40
2023-12-09 Istra 1961 D 0-063.4 1598 1518 52.42% 23.72% 23.86%+0.70 -1.5 27
2023-12-09 @ HNK Gorica D 0-063.4 1518 1598 23.86% 23.72% 52.42%-0.70 +1.5 18
2023-12-09 Rudes W 1-045.4 1762 1406 77.69% 15.27% 7.04%+2.45 +1.6 33
2023-12-09 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-145.4 1406 1762 7.04% 15.27% 77.69%-2.45 -1.6 4
2023-12-10 Osijek D 2-274.3 1525 1616 29.63% 24.44% 45.92%-0.38 +0.5 18
2023-12-10 @ Varazdin D 2-274.3 1616 1525 45.92% 24.44% 29.63%+0.38 -0.5 24
2023-12-10 Slaven Belupo L 2-470.8 1688 1489 65.22% 20.67% 14.11%+1.46 -19.2 32
2023-12-10 @ Rijeka W 4-270.8 1489 1688 14.11% 20.67% 65.22%-1.46 +19.2 20
2023-12-15 Varazdin L 1-362.2 1597 1526 51.33% 23.87% 24.79%+0.64 -17.5 27
2023-12-15 @ HNK Gorica W 3-162.2 1526 1597 24.79% 23.87% 51.33%-0.64 +17.5 21
2023-12-16 Istra 1961 W 3-046.2 1565 1520 48.11% 24.25% 27.64%+0.48 +17.9 21
2023-12-16 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-346.2 1520 1565 27.64% 24.25% 48.11%-0.48 -17.9 18
2023-12-16 Rudes W 3-038.9 1669 1404 70.94% 18.49% 10.57%+1.88 +7.0 35
2023-12-16 @ Rijeka L 0-338.9 1404 1669 10.57% 18.49% 70.94%-1.88 -7.0 4
2023-12-17 Hajduk Split D 0-068.6 1763 1718 48.07% 24.26% 27.67%+0.48 -1.0 34
2023-12-17 @ Dinamo Zagreb D 0-068.6 1718 1763 27.67% 24.26% 48.07%-0.48 +1.0 41
2023-12-17 Slaven Belupo W 4-150.2 1615 1508 55.66% 23.17% 21.17%+0.87 +12.0 27
2023-12-17 @ Osijek L 1-450.2 1508 1615 21.17% 23.17% 55.66%-0.87 -12.0 20
2024-01-23 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-361.5 1762 1583 63.27% 21.29% 15.44%+1.33 -35.2 34
2024-01-23 @ Dinamo Zagreb W 3-061.5 1583 1762 15.44% 21.29% 63.27%-1.33 +35.2 24
2024-01-24 Rijeka L 2-367.1 1579 1676 28.84% 24.37% 46.79%-0.42 -6.1 27
2024-01-24 @ HNK Gorica W 3-267.1 1676 1579 46.79% 24.37% 28.84%+0.42 +6.0 38
2024-01-26 Slaven Belupo L 1-261.9 1543 1496 48.35% 24.23% 27.42%+0.49 -9.6 21
2024-01-26 @ Varazdin W 2-161.9 1496 1543 27.42% 24.23% 48.35%-0.49 +9.6 23
2024-01-27 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-151.6 1502 1727 16.56% 21.76% 61.68%-1.23 -4.1 18
2024-01-27 @ Istra 1961 W 1-051.6 1727 1502 61.68% 21.76% 16.56%+1.23 +4.1 37
2024-01-27 Rudes W 2-040.2 1627 1397 67.99% 19.68% 12.33%+1.65 +5.7 30
2024-01-27 @ Osijek L 0-240.2 1397 1627 12.33% 19.68% 67.99%-1.65 -5.7 4
2024-01-28 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-262.9 1573 1618 35.61% 24.73% 39.66%-0.09 -7.5 27
2024-01-28 @ HNK Gorica W 2-162.9 1618 1573 39.66% 24.73% 35.61%+0.09 +7.5 27
2024-01-28 Rijeka L 1-269.2 1719 1682 47.04% 24.35% 28.61%+0.43 -9.4 41
2024-01-28 @ Hajduk Split W 2-169.2 1682 1719 28.61% 24.35% 47.04%-0.43 +9.4 41
2024-02-02 Varazdin D 0-064.7 1626 1534 53.90% 23.49% 22.61%+0.78 -1.6 28
2024-02-02 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 0-064.7 1534 1626 22.61% 23.49% 53.90%-0.78 +1.6 22
2024-02-03 Hajduk Split D 1-172.2 1633 1710 31.34% 24.57% 44.09%-0.29 +0.6 31
2024-02-03 @ Osijek D 1-172.2 1710 1633 44.09% 24.57% 31.34%+0.29 -0.6 42
2024-02-03 Rudes W 4-036.4 1506 1391 56.48% 23.01% 20.51%+0.92 +18.0 26
2024-02-03 @ Slaven Belupo L 0-436.4 1391 1506 20.51% 23.01% 56.48%-0.92 -18.0 4
2024-02-04 HNK Gorica W 2-049.1 1731 1566 61.93% 21.69% 16.38%+1.25 +7.7 40
2024-02-04 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-249.1 1566 1731 16.38% 21.69% 61.93%-1.25 -7.7 27
2024-02-04 Istra 1961 W 3-044.2 1692 1498 64.67% 20.85% 14.48%+1.42 +9.8 44
2024-02-04 @ Rijeka L 0-344.2 1498 1692 14.48% 20.85% 64.67%-1.42 -9.8 18
2024-02-09 Rudes W 1-041.3 1535 1373 61.57% 21.79% 16.64%+1.22 +4.1 25
2024-02-09 @ Varazdin L 0-141.3 1373 1535 16.64% 21.79% 61.57%-1.22 -4.1 4
2024-02-10 Dinamo Zagreb D 2-278.3 1624 1739 26.77% 24.15% 49.08%-0.53 +0.8 29
2024-02-10 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 2-278.3 1739 1624 49.08% 24.15% 26.77%+0.53 -0.8 41
2024-02-10 Osijek W 1-060.3 1488 1634 23.46% 23.65% 52.89%-0.73 +11.0 21
2024-02-10 @ Istra 1961 L 0-160.3 1634 1488 52.89% 23.65% 23.46%+0.73 -11.0 31
2024-02-11 Rijeka L 0-251.4 1558 1702 23.65% 23.68% 52.66%-0.71 -10.8 27
2024-02-11 @ HNK Gorica W 2-051.4 1702 1558 52.66% 23.68% 23.65%+0.71 +10.8 47
2024-02-11 Slaven Belupo W 4-044.9 1709 1524 63.90% 21.10% 15.00%+1.37 +13.3 45
2024-02-11 @ Hajduk Split L 0-444.9 1524 1709 15.00% 21.10% 63.90%-1.37 -13.3 26
2024-02-16 Istra 1961 D 1-164.0 1510 1499 43.58% 24.59% 31.82%+0.27 -0.5 27
2024-02-16 @ Slaven Belupo D 1-164.0 1499 1510 31.82% 24.59% 43.58%-0.27 +0.5 22
2024-02-17 Hajduk Split L 0-241.1 1369 1723 9.40% 17.56% 73.04%-2.04 -4.2 4
2024-02-17 @ Rudes W 2-041.1 1723 1369 73.04% 17.56% 9.40%+2.04 +4.2 48
2024-02-17 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 4-049.6 1712 1625 53.34% 23.58% 23.08%+0.75 +20.0 50
2024-02-17 @ Rijeka L 0-449.6 1625 1712 23.08% 23.58% 53.34%-0.75 -20.0 29
2024-02-18 HNK Gorica W 3-047.6 1623 1547 51.91% 23.79% 24.30%+0.67 +16.1 34
2024-02-18 @ Osijek L 0-347.6 1547 1623 24.30% 23.79% 51.91%-0.67 -16.0 27
2024-02-18 Varazdin W 1-051.3 1738 1539 65.13% 20.70% 14.17%+1.45 +3.5 44
2024-02-18 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-151.3 1539 1738 14.17% 20.70% 65.13%-1.45 -3.5 25
2024-02-23 Osijek D 1-170.8 1605 1639 37.22% 24.75% 38.03%-0.02 +0.0 30
2024-02-23 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-170.8 1639 1605 38.03% 24.75% 37.22%+0.02 -0.0 35
2024-02-24 Hajduk Split D 1-171.8 1536 1727 19.24% 22.66% 58.10%-1.01 +1.8 26
2024-02-24 @ Varazdin D 1-171.8 1727 1536 58.10% 22.66% 19.24%+1.01 -1.8 49
2024-02-24 Rudes W 2-146.4 1500 1365 58.71% 22.52% 18.77%+1.05 +4.4 25
2024-02-24 @ Istra 1961 L 1-246.4 1365 1500 18.77% 22.52% 58.71%-1.05 -4.4 4
2024-02-25 Rijeka W 1-059.6 1742 1732 43.31% 24.61% 32.09%+0.26 +7.4 47
2024-02-25 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-159.6 1732 1742 32.09% 24.61% 43.31%-0.26 -7.4 50
2024-02-25 Slaven Belupo W 1-051.2 1531 1510 44.91% 24.52% 30.57%+0.33 +7.1 30
2024-02-25 @ HNK Gorica L 0-151.2 1510 1531 30.57% 24.52% 44.91%-0.33 -7.1 27
2024-03-02 Istra 1961 W 1-049.9 1725 1504 67.19% 19.98% 12.83%+1.60 +3.2 52
2024-03-02 @ Hajduk Split L 0-149.9 1504 1725 12.83% 19.98% 67.19%-1.60 -3.2 25
2024-03-02 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 2-363.3 1503 1605 28.24% 24.32% 47.44%-0.45 -5.9 27
2024-03-02 @ Slaven Belupo W 3-263.3 1605 1503 47.44% 24.32% 28.24%+0.45 +6.0 33
2024-03-03 Dinamo Zagreb D 1-172.7 1639 1749 27.26% 24.21% 48.53%-0.50 +1.0 36
2024-03-03 @ Osijek D 1-172.7 1749 1639 48.53% 24.21% 27.26%+0.50 -1.0 48
2024-03-03 Varazdin W 2-048.0 1725 1538 64.04% 21.05% 14.91%+1.38 +7.0 53
2024-03-03 @ Rijeka L 0-248.0 1538 1725 14.91% 21.05% 64.04%-1.38 -7.0 26
2024-03-04 HNK Gorica W 2-158.9 1361 1538 20.40% 22.98% 56.62%-0.93 +11.0 7
2024-03-04 @ Rudes L 1-258.9 1538 1361 56.62% 22.98% 20.40%+0.93 -11.0 30
2024-03-08 Istra 1961 D 2-270.6 1531 1501 46.11% 24.43% 29.46%+0.39 -0.6 27
2024-03-08 @ Varazdin D 2-270.6 1501 1531 29.46% 24.43% 46.11%-0.39 +0.6 26
2024-03-09 Hajduk Split L 0-347.2 1527 1728 18.40% 22.41% 59.19%-1.08 -12.5 30
2024-03-09 @ HNK Gorica W 3-047.2 1728 1527 59.19% 22.41% 18.40%+1.08 +12.5 55
2024-03-09 Rudes W 3-036.2 1611 1372 68.78% 19.37% 11.85%+1.71 +7.9 36
2024-03-09 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-336.2 1372 1611 11.85% 19.37% 68.78%-1.71 -8.0 7
2024-03-10 Osijek W 3-050.2 1732 1640 53.93% 23.48% 22.59%+0.78 +15.0 56
2024-03-10 @ Rijeka L 0-350.2 1640 1732 22.59% 23.48% 53.93%-0.78 -15.0 36
2024-03-10 Slaven Belupo W 5-251.4 1748 1497 69.79% 18.97% 11.24%+1.79 +5.5 51
2024-03-10 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 2-551.4 1497 1748 11.24% 18.97% 69.79%-1.79 -5.5 27
2024-03-15 Varazdin L 0-161.6 1625 1530 54.15% 23.44% 22.40%+0.79 -11.2 36
2024-03-15 @ Osijek W 1-061.6 1530 1625 22.40% 23.44% 54.15%-0.79 +11.2 30
2024-03-16 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-271.5 1741 1619 57.32% 22.83% 19.85%+0.97 -11.1 55
2024-03-16 @ Hajduk Split W 2-171.5 1619 1741 19.85% 22.83% 57.32%-0.97 +11.1 39
2024-03-16 Rijeka L 0-150.8 1491 1747 14.49% 20.85% 64.66%-1.42 -3.6 27
2024-03-16 @ Slaven Belupo W 1-050.8 1747 1491 64.66% 20.85% 14.49%+1.42 +3.6 59
2024-03-17 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-338.9 1364 1754 7.99% 16.26% 75.74%-2.27 -5.1 7
2024-03-17 @ Rudes W 3-038.9 1754 1364 75.74% 16.26% 7.99%+2.27 +5.1 54
2024-03-17 HNK Gorica D 0-059.6 1501 1515 40.14% 24.72% 35.14%+0.11 -0.2 27
2024-03-17 @ Istra 1961 D 0-059.6 1515 1501 35.14% 24.72% 40.14%-0.11 +0.2 31
2024-03-29 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 0-063.7 1501 1630 25.21% 23.94% 50.85%-0.62 +1.3 28
2024-03-29 @ Istra 1961 D 0-063.7 1630 1501 50.85% 23.94% 25.21%+0.62 -1.3 40
2024-03-29 Osijek L 0-151.6 1488 1613 25.57% 23.99% 50.44%-0.60 -6.1 27
2024-03-29 @ Slaven Belupo W 1-051.6 1613 1488 50.44% 23.99% 25.57%+0.60 +6.1 39
2024-03-30 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-161.4 1730 1759 37.90% 24.75% 37.35%+0.01 -8.4 55
2024-03-30 @ Hajduk Split W 1-061.4 1759 1730 37.35% 24.75% 37.90%-0.01 +8.4 57
2024-03-30 HNK Gorica L 2-462.3 1542 1515 45.64% 24.46% 29.89%+0.36 -14.2 30
2024-03-30 @ Varazdin W 4-262.3 1515 1542 29.89% 24.46% 45.64%-0.36 +14.2 34
2024-03-30 Rijeka L 0-338.6 1358 1751 7.92% 16.19% 75.90%-2.29 -5.1 7
2024-03-30 @ Rudes W 3-038.6 1751 1358 75.90% 16.19% 7.92%+2.29 +5.1 62
2024-04-05 Osijek L 2-353.0 1353 1619 13.83% 20.53% 65.64%-1.49 -3.1 7
2024-04-05 @ Rudes W 3-253.0 1619 1353 65.64% 20.53% 13.83%+1.49 +3.1 42
2024-04-06 HNK Gorica D 1-169.3 1629 1529 54.77% 23.33% 21.90%+0.83 -1.5 41
2024-04-06 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-169.3 1529 1629 21.90% 23.33% 54.77%-0.83 +1.5 35
2024-04-06 Varazdin L 0-151.5 1482 1527 35.54% 24.73% 39.73%-0.09 -8.0 27
2024-04-06 @ Slaven Belupo W 1-051.5 1527 1482 39.73% 24.73% 35.54%+0.09 +8.0 33
2024-04-07 Hajduk Split W 1-058.6 1756 1721 46.68% 24.38% 28.94%+0.41 +6.8 65
2024-04-07 @ Rijeka L 0-158.6 1721 1756 28.94% 24.38% 46.68%-0.41 -6.8 55
2024-04-07 Istra 1961 W 4-148.9 1767 1502 70.90% 18.51% 10.60%+1.87 +5.9 60
2024-04-07 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-448.9 1502 1767 10.60% 18.51% 70.90%-1.87 -5.9 28
2024-04-12 Slaven Belupo L 1-344.6 1350 1474 25.80% 24.02% 50.17%-0.59 -10.1 7
2024-04-12 @ Rudes W 3-144.6 1474 1350 50.17% 24.02% 25.80%+0.59 +10.1 30
2024-04-13 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-248.8 1531 1773 15.35% 21.26% 63.39%-1.34 -7.2 35
2024-04-13 @ HNK Gorica W 2-048.8 1773 1531 63.39% 21.26% 15.35%+1.34 +7.2 63
2024-04-13 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-251.3 1535 1627 29.49% 24.43% 46.08%-0.38 -13.0 33
2024-04-13 @ Varazdin W 2-051.3 1627 1535 46.08% 24.43% 29.49%+0.38 +13.0 44
2024-04-14 Osijek L 1-270.4 1715 1622 53.89% 23.49% 22.62%+0.78 -10.5 55
2024-04-14 @ Hajduk Split W 2-170.4 1622 1715 22.62% 23.49% 53.89%-0.78 +10.5 45
2024-04-14 Rijeka L 0-247.5 1497 1762 13.84% 20.53% 65.63%-1.49 -6.5 28
2024-04-14 @ Istra 1961 W 2-047.5 1762 1497 65.63% 20.53% 13.84%+1.49 +6.5 68
2024-04-17 Varazdin W 2-155.7 1780 1522 70.34% 18.74% 10.92%+1.83 +2.5 66
2024-04-17 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-255.7 1522 1780 10.92% 18.74% 70.34%-1.83 -2.5 33
2024-04-20 Hajduk Split L 0-150.8 1484 1704 16.93% 21.90% 61.18%-1.20 -4.2 30
2024-04-20 @ Slaven Belupo W 1-050.8 1704 1484 61.18% 21.90% 16.93%+1.20 +4.2 58
2024-04-20 Istra 1961 L 1-267.6 1633 1490 59.59% 22.31% 18.10%+1.10 -11.5 45
2024-04-20 @ Osijek W 2-167.6 1490 1633 18.10% 22.31% 59.59%-1.10 +11.5 31
2024-04-21 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-156.5 1640 1783 23.75% 23.70% 52.55%-0.71 -5.8 44
2024-04-21 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 1-056.5 1783 1640 52.55% 23.70% 23.75%+0.71 +5.8 69
2024-04-21 HNK Gorica W 3-044.7 1769 1523 69.30% 19.17% 11.54%+1.75 +7.7 71
2024-04-21 @ Rijeka L 0-344.7 1523 1769 11.54% 19.17% 69.30%-1.75 -7.7 35
2024-04-22 Varazdin L 0-237.8 1340 1520 20.23% 22.93% 56.84%-0.94 -9.4 7
2024-04-22 @ Rudes W 2-037.8 1520 1340 56.84% 22.93% 20.23%+0.94 +9.4 36
2024-04-26 Slaven Belupo W 3-043.3 1502 1480 45.02% 24.51% 30.47%+0.34 +19.4 34
2024-04-26 @ Istra 1961 L 0-343.3 1480 1502 30.47% 24.51% 45.02%-0.34 -19.4 30
2024-04-27 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-151.9 1529 1788 14.25% 20.74% 65.00%-1.45 -3.5 36
2024-04-27 @ Varazdin W 1-051.9 1788 1529 65.00% 20.74% 14.25%+1.45 +3.5 72
2024-04-27 Rudes W 5-138.6 1708 1331 79.08% 14.52% 6.40%+2.59 +4.3 61
2024-04-27 @ Hajduk Split L 1-538.6 1331 1708 6.40% 14.52% 79.08%-2.59 -4.3 7
2024-04-28 Osijek L 0-347.9 1516 1622 27.81% 24.27% 47.92%-0.47 -18.0 35
2024-04-28 @ HNK Gorica W 3-047.9 1622 1516 47.92% 24.27% 27.81%+0.47 +18.0 48
2024-04-28 Rijeka W 3-167.4 1634 1777 23.79% 23.71% 52.50%-0.70 +17.8 47
2024-04-28 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-367.4 1777 1634 52.50% 23.71% 23.79%+0.70 -17.8 71
2024-05-03 Istra 1961 L 1-342.7 1327 1521 18.96% 22.58% 58.47%-1.03 -7.6 7
2024-05-03 @ Rudes W 3-142.7 1521 1327 58.47% 22.58% 18.96%+1.03 +7.6 37
2024-05-04 HNK Gorica W 4-150.0 1460 1498 36.68% 24.74% 38.57%-0.04 +19.6 33
2024-05-04 @ Slaven Belupo L 1-450.0 1498 1460 38.57% 24.74% 36.68%+0.04 -19.6 35
2024-05-04 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-161.3 1640 1652 40.24% 24.72% 35.04%+0.12 +12.9 51
2024-05-04 @ Osijek L 1-361.3 1652 1640 35.04% 24.72% 40.24%-0.12 -12.9 47
2024-05-05 Dinamo Zagreb L 1-267.0 1759 1792 37.30% 24.75% 37.95%-0.01 -7.8 71
2024-05-05 @ Rijeka W 2-167.0 1792 1759 37.95% 24.75% 37.30%+0.01 +7.8 75
2024-05-05 Varazdin L 0-165.8 1713 1526 64.01% 21.06% 14.93%+1.38 -13.0 61
2024-05-05 @ Hajduk Split W 1-065.8 1526 1713 14.93% 21.06% 64.01%-1.38 +13.0 39
2024-05-10 Rudes W 2-143.9 1478 1319 61.28% 21.87% 16.85%+1.20 +3.9 38
2024-05-10 @ HNK Gorica L 1-243.9 1319 1478 16.85% 21.87% 61.28%-1.20 -3.9 7
2024-05-11 Osijek W 1-054.4 1800 1652 60.05% 22.19% 17.76%+1.13 +4.4 78
2024-05-11 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-154.4 1652 1800 17.76% 22.19% 60.05%-1.13 -4.4 51
2024-05-11 Rijeka W 3-168.1 1539 1751 17.52% 22.11% 60.37%-1.15 +20.1 42
2024-05-11 @ Varazdin L 1-368.1 1751 1539 60.37% 22.11% 17.52%+1.15 -20.1 71
2024-05-12 Hajduk Split D 1-171.0 1529 1700 21.00% 23.13% 55.87%-0.89 +1.6 38
2024-05-12 @ Istra 1961 D 1-171.0 1700 1529 55.87% 23.13% 21.00%+0.89 -1.6 62
2024-05-12 Slaven Belupo W 2-154.5 1639 1480 61.30% 21.86% 16.84%+1.21 +3.9 50
2024-05-12 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-254.5 1480 1639 16.84% 21.86% 61.30%-1.21 -3.9 33
2024-05-17 Varazdin W 2-051.5 1530 1559 37.97% 24.75% 37.28%+0.02 +15.6 41
2024-05-17 @ Istra 1961 L 0-251.5 1559 1530 37.28% 24.75% 37.97%-0.02 -15.6 42
2024-05-18 Dinamo Zagreb L 2-360.2 1476 1804 10.52% 18.45% 71.04%-1.88 -2.3 33
2024-05-18 @ Slaven Belupo W 3-260.2 1804 1476 71.04% 18.45% 10.52%+1.88 +2.3 81
2024-05-18 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 3-373.5 1315 1643 10.52% 18.45% 71.03%-1.88 +1.8 8
2024-05-18 @ Rudes D 3-373.5 1643 1315 71.03% 18.45% 10.52%+1.88 -1.9 51
2024-05-19 HNK Gorica W 2-154.6 1698 1482 66.70% 20.15% 13.14%+1.56 +3.1 65
2024-05-19 @ Hajduk Split L 1-254.6 1482 1698 13.14% 20.15% 66.70%-1.56 -3.1 38
2024-05-19 Rijeka W 2-059.4 1648 1731 30.60% 24.52% 44.88%-0.33 +18.0 54
2024-05-19 @ Osijek L 0-259.4 1731 1648 44.88% 24.52% 30.60%+0.33 -18.0 71
2024-05-24 Istra 1961 W 2-050.8 1479 1546 32.68% 24.64% 42.69%-0.23 +17.3 41
2024-05-24 @ HNK Gorica L 0-250.8 1546 1479 42.69% 24.64% 32.68%+0.23 -17.3 41
2024-05-25 Hajduk Split L 2-561.2 1641 1701 33.63% 24.68% 41.69%-0.18 -15.3 51
2024-05-25 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 5-261.2 1701 1641 41.69% 24.68% 33.63%+0.18 +15.3 68
2024-05-25 Osijek L 0-251.2 1543 1666 25.86% 24.03% 50.11%-0.58 -11.7 42
2024-05-25 @ Varazdin W 2-051.2 1666 1543 50.11% 24.03% 25.86%+0.58 +11.7 57
2024-05-26 Rudes D 3-381.6 1806 1317 85.39% 10.83% 3.78%+3.30 -2.4 82
2024-05-26 @ Dinamo Zagreb D 3-381.6 1317 1806 3.78% 10.83% 85.39%-3.30 +2.4 9
2024-05-26 Slaven Belupo W 4-042.4 1713 1474 68.77% 19.38% 11.86%+1.71 +10.4 74
2024-05-26 @ Rijeka L 0-442.4 1474 1713 11.86% 19.38% 68.77%-1.71 -10.4 33

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2023-09-02 13.98% Istra 1961 1507 1 @ Hajduk Split 1709 0
2 2023-12-10 14.11% Slaven Belupo 1489 4 @ Rijeka 1688 2
3 2024-05-05 14.93% Varazdin 1526 1 @ Hajduk Split 1713 0
4 2024-01-23 15.44% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1583 3 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1762 0
5 2024-05-11 17.52% @ Varazdin 1539 3 Rijeka 1751 1
6 2024-04-20 18.10% Istra 1961 1490 2 @ Osijek 1633 1
7 2023-10-21 19.58% @ HNK Gorica 1573 2 Dinamo Zagreb 1760 1
8 2024-03-16 19.85% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1619 2 @ Hajduk Split 1741 1
9 2024-03-04 20.40% @ Rudes 1361 2 HNK Gorica 1538 1
10 2023-11-24 21.15% Slaven Belupo 1477 3 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1584 1
11 2024-03-15 22.40% Varazdin 1530 1 @ Osijek 1625 0
12 2024-04-14 22.62% Osijek 1622 2 @ Hajduk Split 1715 1
13 2023-09-30 22.91% @ Slaven Belupo 1477 1 Osijek 1628 0
14 2024-02-10 23.46% @ Istra 1961 1488 1 Osijek 1634 0
15 2024-04-28 23.79% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1634 3 Rijeka 1777 1
16 2023-09-17 24.75% @ HNK Gorica 1563 2 Hajduk Split 1696 1
17 2023-12-15 24.79% Varazdin 1526 3 @ HNK Gorica 1597 1
18 2023-07-21 25.42% Hajduk Split 1668 2 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1733 1
19 2023-10-22 25.54% Osijek 1628 2 @ Hajduk Split 1692 0
20 2024-01-26 27.42% Slaven Belupo 1496 2 @ Varazdin 1543 1
21 2024-01-28 28.61% Rijeka 1682 2 @ Hajduk Split 1719 1
22 2024-03-30 29.89% HNK Gorica 1515 4 @ Varazdin 1542 2
23 2024-05-19 30.60% @ Osijek 1648 2 Rijeka 1731 0
24 2023-10-06 30.84% @ Slaven Belupo 1488 3 Varazdin 1569 2
25 2023-11-04 31.56% @ HNK Gorica 1579 3 Osijek 1654 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-01-23 35.16 Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1583 15.44% @ Dinamo Zagreb 0 1762 63.27% 21.29%
2 2023-08-06 29.65 @ Rijeka 6 1622 53.01% Istra 1961 0 1537 23.36% 23.63%
3 2023-11-11 29.09 Istra 1961 4 1482 38.84% @ Rudes 0 1443 36.42% 24.74%
4 2023-10-02 27.94 Lokomotiva Zagreb 4 1559 40.75% @ Istra 1961 0 1506 34.54% 24.71%
5 2023-11-04 25.73 @ HNK Gorica 3 1579 31.56% Osijek 0 1654 43.86% 24.58%
6 2023-07-22 22.19 @ Rijeka 4 1606 49.97% Rudes 0 1546 25.98% 24.05%
7 2024-05-11 20.14 @ Varazdin 3 1539 17.52% Rijeka 1 1751 60.37% 22.11%
8 2023-07-22 20.05 @ Osijek 6 1611 53.96% Slaven Belupo 1 1519 22.57% 23.48%
9 2024-02-17 20.04 @ Rijeka 4 1712 53.34% Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1625 23.08% 23.58%
10 2023-10-22 19.90 Osijek 2 1628 25.54% @ Hajduk Split 0 1692 50.48% 23.99%
11 2024-05-04 19.62 @ Slaven Belupo 4 1460 36.68% HNK Gorica 1 1498 38.57% 24.74%
12 2024-04-26 19.38 @ Istra 1961 3 1502 45.02% Slaven Belupo 0 1480 30.47% 24.51%
13 2023-12-10 19.25 Slaven Belupo 4 1489 14.11% @ Rijeka 2 1688 65.22% 20.67%
14 2023-11-24 18.76 Slaven Belupo 3 1477 21.15% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1584 55.69% 23.16%
15 2024-05-19 18.04 @ Osijek 2 1648 30.60% Rijeka 0 1731 44.88% 24.52%
16 2024-02-03 18.02 @ Slaven Belupo 4 1506 56.48% Rudes 0 1391 20.51% 23.01%
17 2024-04-28 17.99 Osijek 3 1622 47.92% @ HNK Gorica 0 1516 27.81% 24.27%
18 2023-12-16 17.90 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1565 48.11% Istra 1961 0 1520 27.64% 24.25%
19 2024-04-28 17.83 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1634 23.79% Rijeka 1 1777 52.50% 23.71%
20 2023-12-15 17.49 Varazdin 3 1526 24.79% @ HNK Gorica 1 1597 51.33% 23.87%
21 2024-05-24 17.33 @ HNK Gorica 2 1479 32.68% Istra 1961 0 1546 42.69% 24.64%
22 2023-12-01 16.08 @ Istra 1961 2 1502 36.48% Varazdin 0 1541 38.78% 24.74%
23 2024-02-18 16.05 @ Osijek 3 1623 51.91% HNK Gorica 0 1547 24.30% 23.79%
24 2024-05-17 15.61 @ Istra 1961 2 1530 37.97% Varazdin 0 1559 37.28% 24.75%
25 2023-11-05 15.39 @ Istra 1961 2 1467 38.66% Slaven Belupo 0 1491 36.59% 24.74%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-05-26 81.6 @ Dinamo Zagreb 3 1806 85.39% Rudes 3 1317 3.78% 10.83%
2 2023-08-13 79.9 @ Istra 1961 4 1507 25.10% Osijek 4 1637 50.97% 23.92%
3 2023-11-12 78.6 @ Rijeka 2 1677 31.73% Dinamo Zagreb 2 1751 43.68% 24.59%
4 2024-02-10 78.3 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1624 26.77% Dinamo Zagreb 2 1739 49.08% 24.15%
5 2023-08-04 76.7 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1555 43.65% Varazdin 3 1543 31.76% 24.59%
6 2023-09-03 76.1 @ Rijeka 2 1651 54.77% Varazdin 2 1551 21.90% 23.34%
7 2023-08-26 75.6 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1550 29.42% Osijek 2 1642 46.15% 24.43%
8 2023-12-10 74.3 @ Varazdin 2 1525 29.63% Osijek 2 1616 45.92% 24.44%
9 2024-05-18 73.5 @ Rudes 3 1315 10.52% Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1643 71.03% 18.45%
10 2024-03-03 72.7 @ Osijek 1 1639 27.26% Dinamo Zagreb 1 1749 48.53% 24.21%
11 2023-11-05 72.5 @ Varazdin 1 1559 18.99% Dinamo Zagreb 1 1753 58.43% 22.59%
12 2024-02-03 72.2 @ Osijek 1 1633 31.34% Hajduk Split 1 1710 44.09% 24.57%
13 2023-12-08 71.9 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1564 22.40% Hajduk Split 1 1720 54.15% 23.44%
14 2024-02-24 71.8 @ Varazdin 1 1536 19.24% Hajduk Split 1 1727 58.10% 22.66%
15 2024-03-16 71.5 Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1619 19.85% @ Hajduk Split 1 1741 57.32% 22.83%
16 2023-10-21 71.3 @ HNK Gorica 2 1573 19.58% Dinamo Zagreb 1 1760 57.66% 22.76%
17 2023-08-25 71.2 @ HNK Gorica 2 1549 49.14% Slaven Belupo 2 1496 26.71% 24.14%
18 2023-11-03 71.2 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1583 29.06% Rijeka 1 1678 46.55% 24.39%
19 2023-07-28 71.1 @ Varazdin 2 1544 48.12% Slaven Belupo 2 1499 27.63% 24.25%
20 2024-05-12 71.0 @ Istra 1961 1 1529 21.00% Hajduk Split 1 1700 55.87% 23.13%
21 2023-12-10 70.8 Slaven Belupo 4 1489 14.11% @ Rijeka 2 1688 65.22% 20.67%
22 2024-02-23 70.8 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1605 37.22% Osijek 1 1639 38.03% 24.75%
23 2024-03-08 70.6 @ Varazdin 2 1531 46.11% Istra 1961 2 1501 29.46% 24.43%
24 2024-04-14 70.4 Osijek 2 1622 22.62% @ Hajduk Split 1 1715 53.89% 23.49%
25 2023-11-11 70.2 @ Osijek 1 1621 47.05% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1583 28.60% 24.35%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-03-09 36.2 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1611 68.78% Rudes 0 1372 11.85% 19.37%
2 2024-02-03 36.4 @ Slaven Belupo 4 1506 56.48% Rudes 0 1391 20.51% 23.01%
3 2024-04-22 37.8 Varazdin 2 1520 56.84% @ Rudes 0 1340 20.23% 22.93%
4 2024-03-30 38.6 Rijeka 3 1751 75.90% @ Rudes 0 1358 7.92% 16.19%
5 2024-04-27 38.6 @ Hajduk Split 5 1708 79.08% Rudes 1 1331 6.40% 14.52%
6 2023-11-26 38.9 @ HNK Gorica 3 1603 64.24% Rudes 0 1414 14.77% 20.99%
7 2023-12-16 38.9 @ Rijeka 3 1669 70.94% Rudes 0 1404 10.57% 18.49%
8 2024-03-17 38.9 Dinamo Zagreb 3 1754 75.74% @ Rudes 0 1364 7.99% 16.26%
9 2024-01-27 40.2 @ Osijek 2 1627 67.99% Rudes 0 1397 12.33% 19.68%
10 2024-02-17 41.1 Hajduk Split 2 1723 73.04% @ Rudes 0 1369 9.40% 17.56%
11 2024-02-09 41.3 @ Varazdin 1 1535 61.57% Rudes 0 1373 16.64% 21.79%
12 2023-10-07 41.7 @ Osijek 3 1616 61.40% Rudes 0 1456 16.77% 21.84%
13 2024-05-26 42.4 @ Rijeka 4 1713 68.77% Slaven Belupo 0 1474 11.86% 19.38%
14 2023-11-11 42.7 Istra 1961 4 1482 38.84% @ Rudes 0 1443 36.42% 24.74%
15 2024-05-03 42.7 Istra 1961 3 1521 58.47% @ Rudes 1 1327 18.96% 22.58%
16 2023-10-08 43.0 @ Dinamo Zagreb 3 1754 71.76% Istra 1961 0 1478 10.11% 18.13%
17 2024-04-26 43.3 @ Istra 1961 3 1502 45.02% Slaven Belupo 0 1480 30.47% 24.51%
18 2023-09-16 43.5 @ Dinamo Zagreb 3 1746 70.29% Slaven Belupo 0 1489 10.95% 18.76%
19 2024-05-10 43.9 @ HNK Gorica 2 1478 61.28% Rudes 1 1319 16.85% 21.87%
20 2024-02-04 44.2 @ Rijeka 3 1692 64.67% Istra 1961 0 1498 14.48% 20.85%
21 2024-04-12 44.6 Slaven Belupo 3 1474 50.17% @ Rudes 1 1350 25.80% 24.02%
22 2023-08-13 44.7 @ Hajduk Split 3 1685 63.16% Slaven Belupo 0 1507 15.52% 21.33%
23 2024-04-21 44.7 @ Rijeka 3 1769 69.30% HNK Gorica 0 1523 11.54% 19.17%
24 2024-02-11 44.9 @ Hajduk Split 4 1709 63.90% Slaven Belupo 0 1524 15.00% 21.10%
25 2023-12-09 45.4 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1 1762 77.69% Rudes 0 1406 7.04% 15.27%