2022-23 Hrvatska nogometna liga Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Dinamo Zagreb

81 points · 24th Title

Last Title: 2021-22

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Istra 1961

5.31 points above expected

46 points · 40.69 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Osijek

10.27 points below expected

50 points · 60.27 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Dinamo Zagreb Champion	36	24	9	3	81	81	28	+53	77.25	+3.75
2	Hajduk Split	36	21	8	7	71	65	41	+24	65.76	+5.24
3	Osijek	36	13	11	12	50	46	41	+5	60.27	-10.27
4	Rijeka	36	14	7	15	49	44	44	0	52.10	-3.10
5	Istra 1961	36	11	13	12	46	36	38	-2	40.69	+5.31
6	Varazdin	36	12	10	14	46	41	51	-10	41.77	+4.23
7	Lokomotiva Zagreb	36	11	10	15	43	45	50	-5	45.41	-2.41
8	Slaven Belupo	36	10	13	13	43	27	46	-19	38.28	+4.72
9	Gorica	36	7	11	18	32	36	50	-14	38.96	-6.96
10	Sibenik	36	5	12	19	27	24	56	-32	32.22	-5.22

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Istra 1961	46	40.69	+5.31
2	Hajduk Split	71	65.76	+5.24
3	Slaven Belupo	43	38.28	+4.72
4	Varazdin	46	41.77	+4.23
5	Dinamo Zagreb	81	77.25	+3.75

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Osijek	50	60.27	-10.27
2	Gorica	32	38.96	-6.96
3	Sibenik	27	32.22	-5.22
4	Rijeka	49	52.10	-3.10
5	Lokomotiva Zagreb	43	45.41	-2.41

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Slaven Belupo	3	Aug 14 – Aug 27	1 in 66
2	Rijeka	4	Jan 28 – Feb 18	1 in 65
3	Gorica	3	Apr 8 – Apr 23	1 in 59
4	Varazdin	3	Aug 27 – Sep 11	1 in 54
5	Dinamo Zagreb	8	Aug 13 – Oct 16	1 in 41

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Gorica	5	Aug 19 – Sep 17	1 in 116
2	Dinamo Zagreb	2	Mar 11 – Mar 15	1 in 74
3	Rijeka	4	Aug 27 – Sep 14	1 in 41
4	Hajduk Split	2	Jan 29 – Feb 5	1 in 32
5	Osijek	2	Feb 18 – Feb 26	1 in 27

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Gorica	7	Apr 1 – May 6	1 in 106
2	Varazdin	6	Aug 5 – Sep 11	1 in 48
3	Slaven Belupo	6	Oct 14 – Jan 20	1 in 28
4	Sibenik	5	Jul 23 – Aug 20	1 in 18
5	Hajduk Split	13	Sep 4 – Jan 22	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Osijek	11	Feb 4 – Apr 21	1 in 1,578
2	Gorica	18	Aug 19 – Feb 19	1 in 339
3	Rijeka	10	Jul 31 – Oct 2	1 in 192
4	Sibenik	16	Aug 6 – Jan 28	1 in 73
5	Dinamo Zagreb	3	Mar 5 – Mar 15	1 in 29

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Dinamo Zagreb	1818	81	+9	11	10.3	+0.7
Hajduk Split	1724	71	+34	13	9.0	+4.0
Osijek	1631	50	+7	8	6.9	+1.1
Rijeka	1623	49	-11	5	7.2	-2.2
Istra 1961	1535	46	+7	8	7.2	+0.8
Varazdin	1526	46	+4	7	6.4	+0.6
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1557	43	-5	6	6.9	-0.9
Slaven Belupo	1492	43	-10	3	5.2	-2.2
Gorica	1523	32	+3	5	5.6	-0.6
Sibenik	1399	27	-38	0	3.5	-3.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	DZ	GOR	HS	I1	LZ	OSI	RIJ	SIB	SB	VAR
Dinamo Zagreb	—	2-2-0 9.26	2-2-0 6.79	2-1-1 9.06	4-0-0 8.52	1-2-1 7.54	4-0-0 8.06	3-0-1 9.71	3-1-0 9.04	3-1-0 8.99
Gorica	0-2-2 2.02	—	0-1-3 2.78	1-0-3 5.23	2-1-1 4.64	1-0-3 3.31	1-1-2 4.06	1-2-1 6.16	0-3-1 5.46	1-1-2 4.99
Hajduk Split	0-2-2 4.06	3-1-0 8.30	—	1-2-1 8.21	2-1-1 7.55	3-0-1 6.08	2-0-2 7.09	3-1-0 8.88	3-1-0 8.23	4-0-0 7.84
Istra 1961	1-1-2 2.18	3-0-1 5.60	1-2-1 2.84	—	0-1-3 4.96	2-0-2 3.34	1-2-1 4.07	1-3-0 6.26	1-2-1 5.61	1-2-1 5.18
Lokomotiva Zagreb	0-0-4 2.60	1-1-2 6.17	1-1-2 3.39	3-1-0 5.82	—	2-1-1 3.81	1-0-3 4.67	2-1-1 6.86	1-2-1 6.09	0-3-1 5.84
Osijek	1-2-1 3.41	3-0-1 7.65	1-0-3 4.73	2-0-2 7.61	1-1-2 7.07	—	1-3-0 6.12	2-2-0 8.23	1-2-1 7.68	1-1-2 7.49
Rijeka	0-0-4 2.96	2-1-1 6.81	2-0-2 3.80	1-2-1 6.79	3-0-1 6.14	0-3-1 4.71	—	3-1-0 7.42	1-0-3 7.08	2-0-2 6.60
Sibenik	1-0-3 1.69	1-2-1 4.67	0-1-3 2.32	0-3-1 4.57	1-1-2 4.01	0-2-2 2.82	0-1-3 3.50	—	2-1-1 4.68	0-1-3 4.35
Slaven Belupo	0-1-3 2.20	1-3-0 5.35	0-1-3 2.82	1-2-1 5.20	1-2-1 4.73	1-2-1 3.29	3-0-1 3.80	1-1-2 6.14	—	2-1-1 5.05
Varazdin	0-1-3 2.23	2-1-1 5.81	0-0-4 3.15	1-2-1 5.61	1-3-0 4.96	2-1-1 3.45	2-0-2 4.26	3-1-0 6.47	1-1-2 5.75	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.89	+8.9
Allowed	0.73	-17.3
Differential	0.92	+6.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.78%	8.61%	6.11%	3.06%	1.67%	—	32.22%
1	8.61%	11.11%	8.06%	3.06%	2.22%	0.56%	33.61%
2	6.11%	8.06%	5.00%	0.83%	—	0.83%	20.83%
3	3.06%	3.06%	0.83%	—	0.28%	—	7.22%
4	1.67%	2.22%	—	0.28%	—	0.28%	4.44%
5+	—	0.56%	0.83%	—	0.28%	—	1.67%
Total	32.22%	33.61%	20.83%	7.22%	4.44%	1.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.24	1.24	+0.00
SD	1.22	1.22	1.73
CV	0.99	0.99	—
Max	7	7	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	8.33%	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	2.78%	13.89%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	2.78%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	—	13.89%
4	8.33%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	19.44%
5+	—	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	33.33%	55.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.25	0.78	+1.47
SD	1.75	0.64	1.63
CV	0.78	0.82	—
Max	7	2	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	13.89%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	41.67%
1	5.56%	13.89%	16.67%	2.78%	2.78%	—	41.67%
2	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	5.56%
Total	25.00%	27.78%	36.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.39	-0.39
SD	1.33	1.10	1.48
CV	1.33	0.79	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	13.89%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	25.00%
2	13.89%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	36.11%
3	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	19.44%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	38.89%	27.78%	22.22%	2.78%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.81	1.14	+0.67
SD	1.17	1.22	1.80
CV	0.65	1.07	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	19.44%	5.56%	13.89%	—	—	—	38.89%
1	16.67%	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	36.11%
2	2.78%	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	—	13.89%
3	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	47.22%	16.67%	27.78%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.06	-0.06
SD	1.07	1.26	1.47
CV	1.07	1.20	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	5.56%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	8.33%	5.56%	19.44%	—	2.78%	—	36.11%
2	2.78%	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	25.00%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	25.00%	30.56%	13.89%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.39	-0.14
SD	1.11	1.13	1.48
CV	0.88	0.81	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
1	8.33%	13.89%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	33.33%
2	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	2.78%	22.22%
3	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	38.89%	16.67%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.14	+0.14
SD	1.21	1.20	1.76
CV	0.95	1.05	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	16.67%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	13.89%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	13.89%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	44.44%	16.67%	8.33%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.22	+0.00
SD	0.99	1.33	1.77
CV	0.81	1.09	—
Max	3	7	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	19.44%	8.33%	11.11%	8.33%	8.33%	—	55.56%
1	2.78%	11.11%	11.11%	—	2.78%	—	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
3	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	27.78%	25.00%	11.11%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.67	1.56	-0.89
SD	0.89	1.30	1.65
CV	1.34	0.83	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	19.44%	13.89%	—	2.78%	5.56%	—	41.67%
1	13.89%	13.89%	—	5.56%	2.78%	5.56%	41.67%
2	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	36.11%	2.78%	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.75	1.28	-0.53
SD	0.73	1.54	1.70
CV	0.98	1.21	—
Max	2	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	2.78%	—	36.11%
2	8.33%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	2.78%	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	36.11%	19.44%	13.89%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.42	-0.28
SD	0.93	1.25	1.56
CV	0.82	0.88	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dinamo Zagreb	1818	81	77.25	+3.75	70.0%	61	62	71	78	82	90	98
Hajduk Split	1724	71	65.76	+5.24	74.0%	44	53	60	66	72	76	85
Osijek	1631	50	60.27	-10.27	7.0%	38	47	56	61	65	71	82
Rijeka	1623	49	52.10	-3.10	36.0%	31	41	47	52	57	64	67
Lokomotiva Zagreb	1557	43	45.41	-2.41	41.0%	28	32	41	45	50	56	63
Istra 1961	1535	46	40.69	+5.31	81.0%	28	29	35	40	45	53	63
Varazdin	1526	46	41.77	+4.23	79.0%	28	32	37	42	46	51	58
Gorica	1523	32	38.96	-6.96	21.0%	19	27	33	39	44	50	53
Slaven Belupo	1492	43	38.28	+4.72	76.0%	21	26	32	38	43	49	55
Sibenik	1399	27	32.22	-5.22	31.0%	19	22	26	32	37	44	51

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 18.5% * Slight Edge: 18.5% to 25.5% * Clear Edge: 25.5% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+14.44%

No Edge

42.78%28.89%28.33%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 50.54 Elo pts.

207 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.25 goals

Neutral

-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.13 * Tight Race: 0.13 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.46 * Runaway: 0.46 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.4

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

84%

Dinamo Zagreb, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.28/gm

Comfortable

00.310.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.87 * Some Luck: 5.87 to 8.81 * Lucky: 8.81 to 11.74 * Wild Swing: 11.74 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.89 * Close: 0.89 to 1.33 * Off: 1.33 to 1.78 * Way Off: 1.78 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.52 points

As Expected

07.3418

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.60

Pinpoint

01.112.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

81.00%

Istra 1961

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

7.00%

Osijek

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.22 * Lopsided: 0.22 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 67% * Clear Edge: 67% to 71% * Wide Edge: 71% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90% * Clear Edge: 90% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95.5% * Dominant: 95.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 58% * Some Drama: 58% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 64% * Very Frequent: 64% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 16.5% * Frequent: 16.5% to 19.5% * Very Frequent: 19.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Balanced

00.170.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 120.69

2.11

Strong Separation

11.852.353.5

Interquartile Edge

65%

Even

50%65%71%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

92%

Clear Edge

50%91%100%

Close Games

Expected

65%

Very Frequent

0%61%100%

Blowouts

Expected

17%

Frequent

0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Lopsided: 0.46 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.79 * Near-Lock: 0.79 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 17% * Very Shaky: 17% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.61

Predictable

00.592

Matchup Imbalance

0.40

Slight Separation

00.390.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.56

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.82

Near-Lock

00.570.791

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Very Upset-Prone

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

20%

Very Shaky

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.

Probability calibration

0.55

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.93

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.087

Well Within Noise

00.1300.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Dinamo Zagreb	84.00%	10.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Hajduk Split	7.00%	65.00%	21.00%	3.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—
Osijek	7.00%	22.00%	51.00%	13.00%	1.00%	3.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—	—
Rijeka	2.00%	2.00%	15.00%	44.00%	17.00%	13.00%	3.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—
Istra 1961	—	—	1.00%	6.00%	15.00%	12.00%	21.00%	19.00%	17.00%	9.00%
Varazdin	—	1.00%	1.00%	8.00%	12.00%	22.00%	22.00%	15.00%	12.00%	7.00%
Lokomotiva Zagreb	—	—	6.00%	19.00%	21.00%	16.00%	15.00%	9.00%	10.00%	4.00%
Slaven Belupo	—	—	—	4.00%	13.00%	12.00%	12.00%	22.00%	20.00%	17.00%
Gorica	—	—	—	1.00%	15.00%	15.00%	17.00%	21.00%	20.00%	11.00%
Sibenik	—	—	—	1.00%	4.00%	5.00%	9.00%	9.00%	20.00%	52.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Dinamo Zagreb	100%	—
Hajduk Split	100%	—
Osijek	100%	—
Rijeka	100%	—
Lokomotiva Zagreb	96.00%	4.00%
Varazdin	93.00%	7.00%
Istra 1961	91.00%	9.00%
Gorica	89.00%	11.00%
Slaven Belupo	83.00%	17.00%
Sibenik	48.00%	52.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2022-07-15	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-2	61.9	1744	1563	64.53%	21.78%	13.68%	+1.12	+2.5	3
2022-07-15	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-3	61.9	1563	1744	13.68%	21.78%	64.53%	-1.12	-2.5	0
2022-07-16	Gorica	W 2-1	58.3	1665	1555	56.17%	25.91%	17.93%	+0.77	+3.5	3
2022-07-16	@ Osijek	L 1-2	58.3	1555	1665	17.93%	25.91%	56.17%	-0.77	-3.5	0
2022-07-16	Rijeka	L 0-1	51.6	1472	1626	22.44%	28.52%	49.04%	-0.50	-4.7	0
2022-07-16	@ Sibenik	W 1-0	51.6	1626	1472	49.04%	28.52%	22.44%	+0.50	+4.7	3
2022-07-17	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	48.3	1485	1688	18.41%	26.27%	55.32%	-0.74	-7.3	0
2022-07-17	@ Istra 1961	W 2-0	48.3	1688	1485	55.32%	26.27%	18.41%	+0.74	+7.3	3
2022-07-17	Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	55.9	1521	1508	43.64%	29.82%	26.54%	+0.31	-7.8	0
2022-07-17	@ Varazdin	W 1-0	55.9	1508	1521	26.54%	29.82%	43.64%	-0.31	+7.8	3
2022-07-22	Varazdin	L 1-2	58.2	1478	1513	36.82%	30.59%	32.59%	+0.07	-6.5	0
2022-07-22	@ Istra 1961	W 2-1	58.2	1513	1478	32.59%	30.59%	36.82%	-0.07	+6.5	3
2022-07-23	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-5	50.3	1516	1746	16.60%	24.82%	58.57%	-0.87	-10.3	3
2022-07-23	@ Slaven Belupo	W 5-1	50.3	1746	1516	58.57%	24.82%	16.60%	+0.87	+10.3	6
2022-07-23	Sibenik	D 0-0	58.9	1552	1467	53.11%	27.14%	19.74%	+0.66	-1.4	1
2022-07-23	@ Gorica	D 0-0	58.9	1467	1552	19.74%	27.14%	53.11%	-0.66	+1.4	1
2022-07-24	Osijek	W 2-1	67.1	1560	1668	27.22%	29.97%	42.82%	-0.28	+7.2	3
2022-07-24	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	67.1	1668	1560	42.82%	29.97%	27.22%	+0.28	-7.3	3
2022-07-29	Istra 1961	W 4-1	46.2	1757	1471	75.29%	15.51%	9.20%	+1.63	+3.9	9
2022-07-29	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-4	46.2	1471	1757	9.20%	15.51%	75.29%	-1.63	-3.9	0
2022-07-29	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	61.2	1468	1568	28.26%	30.16%	41.58%	-0.24	+7.1	4
2022-07-29	@ Sibenik	L 1-2	61.2	1568	1468	41.58%	30.16%	28.26%	+0.24	-7.1	3
2022-07-30	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	50.3	1520	1696	20.54%	27.60%	51.86%	-0.61	-8.2	3
2022-07-30	@ Varazdin	W 2-0	50.3	1696	1520	51.86%	27.60%	20.54%	+0.61	+8.1	6
2022-07-31	Gorica	D 1-1	68.9	1631	1551	52.53%	27.36%	20.11%	+0.63	-1.2	4
2022-07-31	@ Rijeka	D 1-1	68.9	1551	1631	20.11%	27.36%	52.53%	-0.63	+1.2	2
2022-07-31	Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	64.9	1661	1505	61.68%	23.29%	15.03%	+1.00	-2.0	4
2022-07-31	@ Osijek	D 0-0	64.9	1505	1661	15.03%	23.29%	61.68%	-1.00	+2.0	4
2022-08-05	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	71.7	1512	1760	15.48%	23.76%	60.76%	-0.96	+1.8	4
2022-08-05	@ Varazdin	D 1-1	71.7	1760	1512	60.76%	23.76%	15.48%	+0.96	-1.8	10
2022-08-06	Osijek	W 1-0	61.4	1467	1659	19.27%	26.85%	53.88%	-0.68	+9.2	3
2022-08-06	@ Istra 1961	L 0-1	61.4	1659	1467	53.88%	26.85%	19.27%	+0.68	-9.2	4
2022-08-06	Sibenik	D 0-0	57.0	1508	1476	46.21%	29.28%	24.51%	+0.40	-0.9	5
2022-08-06	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	57.0	1476	1508	24.51%	29.28%	46.21%	-0.40	+0.9	5
2022-08-07	Rijeka	W 3-1	61.2	1561	1630	32.11%	30.57%	37.32%	-0.09	+11.4	6
2022-08-07	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-3	61.2	1630	1561	37.32%	30.57%	32.11%	+0.09	-11.4	4
2022-08-12	Istra 1961	D 0-0	55.6	1476	1476	41.87%	30.12%	28.01%	+0.25	-0.6	6
2022-08-12	@ Sibenik	D 0-0	55.6	1476	1476	28.01%	30.12%	41.87%	-0.25	+0.5	4
2022-08-13	Hajduk Split	W 4-1	56.5	1759	1704	49.25%	28.46%	22.29%	+0.51	+10.8	13
2022-08-13	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-4	56.5	1704	1759	22.29%	28.46%	49.25%	-0.51	-10.8	6
2022-08-13	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-2	65.7	1552	1572	39.02%	30.45%	30.53%	+0.15	+5.4	5
2022-08-13	@ Gorica	L 2-3	65.7	1572	1552	30.53%	30.45%	39.02%	-0.15	-5.4	6
2022-08-14	Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	61.8	1618	1507	56.42%	25.80%	17.78%	+0.78	-9.5	4
2022-08-14	@ Rijeka	W 1-0	61.8	1507	1618	17.78%	25.80%	56.42%	-0.78	+9.5	8
2022-08-14	Varazdin	D 2-2	74.9	1650	1513	59.46%	24.40%	16.14%	+0.91	-1.2	5
2022-08-14	@ Osijek	D 2-2	74.9	1513	1650	16.14%	24.40%	59.46%	-0.91	+1.2	5
2022-08-19	Gorica	W 2-1	60.2	1516	1557	36.04%	30.62%	33.33%	+0.05	+6.1	11
2022-08-19	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	60.2	1557	1516	33.33%	30.62%	36.04%	-0.05	-6.1	5
2022-08-20	Osijek	W 5-2	56.1	1769	1649	57.53%	25.30%	17.16%	+0.83	+7.2	16
2022-08-20	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-5	56.1	1649	1769	17.16%	25.30%	57.53%	-0.83	-7.2	5
2022-08-20	Sibenik	D 2-2	67.6	1515	1476	47.11%	29.06%	23.84%	+0.43	-0.6	6
2022-08-20	@ Varazdin	D 2-2	67.6	1476	1515	23.84%	29.06%	47.11%	-0.43	+0.6	7
2022-08-21	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	58.4	1693	1567	58.24%	24.98%	16.78%	+0.86	+3.3	9
2022-08-21	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	58.4	1567	1693	16.78%	24.98%	58.24%	-0.86	-3.3	6
2022-08-21	Rijeka	D 1-1	65.5	1477	1609	24.63%	29.32%	46.05%	-0.39	+0.8	5
2022-08-21	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	65.5	1609	1477	46.05%	29.32%	24.63%	+0.39	-0.8	5
2022-08-26	Istra 1961	L 0-2	54.0	1551	1478	51.66%	27.67%	20.66%	+0.60	-16.8	5
2022-08-26	@ Gorica	W 2-0	54.0	1478	1551	20.66%	27.67%	51.66%	-0.60	+16.7	8
2022-08-27	Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	58.8	1563	1522	47.44%	28.97%	23.59%	+0.44	-8.3	6
2022-08-27	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 1-0	58.8	1522	1563	23.59%	28.97%	47.44%	-0.44	+8.3	14
2022-08-27	Varazdin	L 1-2	66.9	1608	1514	54.26%	26.70%	19.04%	+0.70	-8.7	5
2022-08-27	@ Rijeka	W 2-1	66.9	1514	1608	19.04%	26.70%	54.26%	-0.70	+8.7	9
2022-08-28	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	55.8	1477	1777	12.79%	20.68%	66.53%	-1.21	-2.4	7
2022-08-28	@ Sibenik	W 2-1	55.8	1777	1477	66.53%	20.68%	12.79%	+1.21	+2.4	19
2022-08-28	Hajduk Split	W 2-1	66.7	1642	1696	34.07%	30.64%	35.30%	-0.02	+6.3	8
2022-08-28	@ Osijek	L 1-2	66.7	1696	1642	35.30%	30.64%	34.07%	+0.02	-6.3	9
2022-09-02	Rijeka	W 3-1	54.3	1779	1599	64.42%	21.84%	13.74%	+1.12	+4.5	22
2022-09-02	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	54.3	1599	1779	13.74%	21.84%	64.42%	-1.12	-4.5	5
2022-09-03	Gorica	W 2-1	58.4	1523	1534	40.20%	30.33%	29.47%	+0.19	+5.5	12
2022-09-03	@ Varazdin	L 1-2	58.4	1534	1523	29.47%	30.33%	40.20%	-0.19	-5.5	5
2022-09-03	Sibenik	D 1-1	68.8	1648	1474	63.73%	22.22%	14.05%	+1.09	-1.9	9
2022-09-03	@ Osijek	D 1-1	68.8	1474	1648	14.05%	22.22%	63.73%	-1.09	+1.9	8
2022-09-04	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	59.3	1494	1555	33.27%	30.62%	36.11%	-0.05	-6.1	8
2022-09-04	@ Istra 1961	W 2-1	59.3	1555	1494	36.11%	30.62%	33.27%	+0.05	+6.1	9
2022-09-04	Slaven Belupo	W 5-1	48.5	1690	1530	62.12%	23.06%	14.81%	+1.02	+9.1	12
2022-09-04	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-5	48.5	1530	1690	14.81%	23.06%	62.12%	-1.02	-9.1	14
2022-09-09	Hajduk Split	D 1-1	69.4	1476	1699	17.08%	25.23%	57.69%	-0.83	+1.6	9
2022-09-09	@ Sibenik	D 1-1	69.4	1699	1476	57.69%	25.23%	17.08%	+0.83	-1.6	13
2022-09-10	Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	52.6	1529	1784	15.15%	23.42%	61.44%	-0.99	-3.1	5
2022-09-10	@ Gorica	W 1-0	52.6	1784	1529	61.44%	23.42%	15.15%	+0.99	+3.1	25
2022-09-10	Osijek	L 0-3	53.8	1595	1646	34.57%	30.64%	34.79%	+0.00	-18.1	5
2022-09-10	@ Rijeka	W 3-0	53.8	1646	1595	34.79%	30.64%	34.57%	+0.00	+18.1	12
2022-09-11	Istra 1961	L 0-3	50.1	1521	1488	46.37%	29.24%	24.39%	+0.40	-22.4	14
2022-09-11	@ Slaven Belupo	W 3-0	50.1	1488	1521	24.39%	29.24%	46.37%	-0.40	+22.4	11
2022-09-11	Varazdin	L 1-2	64.2	1561	1528	46.34%	29.25%	24.41%	+0.40	-7.7	9
2022-09-11	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	64.2	1528	1561	24.41%	29.25%	46.34%	-0.40	+7.7	15
2022-09-14	Rijeka	W 2-0	49.6	1698	1577	57.58%	25.28%	17.14%	+0.83	+6.8	16
2022-09-14	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-2	49.6	1577	1698	17.14%	25.28%	57.58%	-0.83	-6.8	5
2022-09-16	Varazdin	W 1-0	53.1	1499	1536	36.65%	30.60%	32.74%	+0.07	+6.4	17
2022-09-16	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	53.1	1536	1499	32.74%	30.60%	36.65%	-0.07	-6.4	15
2022-09-17	Istra 1961	D 2-2	77.1	1704	1511	65.95%	21.00%	13.05%	+1.18	-1.5	17
2022-09-17	@ Hajduk Split	D 2-2	77.1	1511	1704	13.05%	21.00%	65.95%	-1.18	+1.5	12
2022-09-17	Osijek	L 0-1	54.8	1526	1664	23.97%	29.10%	46.93%	-0.42	-5.0	5
2022-09-17	@ Gorica	W 1-0	54.8	1664	1526	46.93%	29.10%	23.97%	+0.42	+5.0	15
2022-09-18	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	59.2	1553	1787	16.42%	24.65%	58.93%	-0.89	-3.2	9
2022-09-18	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	59.2	1787	1553	58.93%	24.65%	16.42%	+0.89	+3.2	28
2022-09-18	Sibenik	D 0-0	60.1	1570	1478	54.03%	26.79%	19.18%	+0.69	-1.5	6
2022-09-18	@ Rijeka	D 0-0	60.1	1478	1570	19.18%	26.79%	54.03%	-0.69	+1.5	10
2022-09-30	Istra 1961	D 1-1	63.8	1529	1512	44.22%	29.71%	26.07%	+0.33	-0.7	16
2022-09-30	@ Varazdin	D 1-1	63.8	1512	1529	26.07%	29.71%	44.22%	-0.33	+0.7	13
2022-10-01	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 4-1	51.4	1669	1550	57.33%	25.40%	17.28%	+0.82	+8.4	18
2022-10-01	@ Osijek	L 1-4	51.4	1550	1669	17.28%	25.40%	57.33%	-0.82	-8.4	9
2022-10-01	Slaven Belupo	W 4-1	47.3	1790	1505	75.19%	15.57%	9.24%	+1.62	+3.9	31
2022-10-01	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-4	47.3	1505	1790	9.24%	15.57%	75.19%	-1.62	-3.9	17
2022-10-02	Hajduk Split	L 0-1	56.5	1568	1703	24.35%	29.23%	46.42%	-0.41	-5.0	6
2022-10-02	@ Rijeka	W 1-0	56.5	1703	1568	46.42%	29.23%	24.35%	+0.41	+5.0	20
2022-10-02	Gorica	D 1-1	62.0	1479	1521	35.97%	30.62%	33.40%	+0.04	-0.1	11
2022-10-02	@ Sibenik	D 1-1	62.0	1521	1479	33.40%	30.62%	35.97%	-0.04	+0.1	6
2022-10-07	Sibenik	D 1-1	63.5	1542	1479	50.27%	28.14%	21.59%	+0.55	-1.1	10
2022-10-07	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	63.5	1479	1542	21.59%	28.14%	50.27%	-0.55	+1.1	12
2022-10-08	Varazdin	W 2-1	56.1	1708	1529	64.33%	21.89%	13.78%	+1.11	+2.6	23
2022-10-08	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	56.1	1529	1708	13.78%	21.89%	64.33%	-1.11	-2.6	16
2022-10-09	Osijek	L 0-4	47.1	1502	1677	20.56%	27.61%	51.83%	-0.61	-15.5	17
2022-10-09	@ Slaven Belupo	W 4-0	47.1	1677	1502	51.83%	27.61%	20.56%	+0.61	+15.5	21
2022-10-09	Rijeka	L 0-2	52.1	1521	1563	35.84%	30.63%	33.53%	+0.04	-12.8	6
2022-10-09	@ Gorica	W 2-0	52.1	1563	1521	33.53%	30.63%	35.84%	-0.04	+12.8	9
2022-10-14	Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	49.3	1480	1486	41.03%	30.23%	28.74%	+0.22	-14.1	12
2022-10-14	@ Sibenik	W 2-0	49.3	1486	1480	28.74%	30.23%	41.03%	-0.22	+14.1	20
2022-10-15	Hajduk Split	L 0-1	53.0	1508	1710	18.50%	26.33%	55.18%	-0.74	-3.9	6
2022-10-15	@ Gorica	W 1-0	53.0	1710	1508	55.18%	26.33%	18.50%	+0.74	+3.9	26
2022-10-15	Istra 1961	W 2-0	46.3	1693	1513	64.43%	21.84%	13.73%	+1.12	+5.2	24
2022-10-15	@ Osijek	L 0-2	46.3	1513	1693	13.73%	21.84%	64.43%	-1.12	-5.2	13
2022-10-16	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-0	47.2	1576	1541	46.69%	29.16%	24.15%	+0.42	+13.7	12
2022-10-16	@ Rijeka	L 0-3	47.2	1541	1576	24.15%	29.16%	46.69%	-0.42	-13.7	10
2022-10-16	Varazdin	W 3-1	50.9	1794	1526	73.59%	16.54%	9.87%	+1.54	+3.0	34
2022-10-16	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	50.9	1526	1794	9.87%	16.54%	73.59%	-1.54	-3.0	16
2022-10-21	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	71.6	1714	1797	30.34%	30.43%	39.22%	-0.15	+0.3	27
2022-10-21	@ Hajduk Split	D 1-1	71.6	1797	1714	39.22%	30.43%	30.34%	+0.15	-0.3	35
2022-10-22	Gorica	W 2-1	56.0	1527	1504	44.97%	29.56%	25.47%	+0.35	+4.9	13
2022-10-22	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-2	56.0	1504	1527	25.47%	29.56%	44.97%	-0.35	-4.9	6
2022-10-22	Osijek	W 4-1	62.4	1523	1698	20.64%	27.66%	51.71%	-0.60	+20.5	19
2022-10-22	@ Varazdin	L 1-4	62.4	1698	1523	51.71%	27.66%	20.64%	+0.60	-20.5	24
2022-10-23	Rijeka	W 2-1	62.8	1500	1590	29.42%	30.33%	40.25%	-0.19	+6.9	23
2022-10-23	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	62.8	1590	1500	40.25%	30.33%	29.42%	+0.19	-6.9	12
2022-10-23	Sibenik	D 0-0	56.7	1508	1466	47.51%	28.95%	23.54%	+0.45	-1.0	14
2022-10-23	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	56.7	1466	1508	23.54%	28.95%	47.51%	-0.45	+1.0	13
2022-10-26	Gorica	W 3-1	50.8	1715	1499	68.30%	19.67%	12.03%	+1.29	+3.8	30
2022-10-26	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-3	50.8	1499	1715	12.03%	19.67%	68.30%	-1.29	-3.8	6
2022-10-28	Varazdin	L 1-2	57.2	1467	1544	31.09%	30.50%	38.41%	-0.13	-5.8	13
2022-10-28	@ Sibenik	W 2-1	57.2	1544	1467	38.41%	30.50%	31.09%	+0.13	+5.8	22
2022-10-29	Dinamo Zagreb	W 1-0	64.4	1678	1796	26.00%	29.70%	44.30%	-0.33	+7.9	27
2022-10-29	@ Osijek	L 0-1	64.4	1796	1678	44.30%	29.70%	26.00%	+0.33	-7.9	35
2022-10-29	Istra 1961	L 0-1	59.9	1583	1507	52.00%	27.55%	20.44%	+0.61	-8.9	12
2022-10-29	@ Rijeka	W 1-0	59.9	1507	1583	20.44%	27.55%	52.00%	-0.61	+8.9	17
2022-10-30	Hajduk Split	D 2-2	75.9	1532	1719	19.68%	27.11%	53.21%	-0.66	+1.0	14
2022-10-30	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	75.9	1719	1532	53.21%	27.11%	19.68%	+0.66	-1.0	31
2022-10-30	Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	62.2	1495	1507	40.22%	30.33%	29.45%	+0.19	-0.4	7
2022-10-30	@ Gorica	D 1-1	62.2	1507	1495	29.45%	30.33%	40.22%	-0.19	+0.4	24
2022-11-04	Gorica	W 1-0	49.8	1516	1495	44.69%	29.62%	25.69%	+0.34	+5.3	20
2022-11-04	@ Istra 1961	L 0-1	49.8	1495	1516	25.69%	29.62%	44.69%	-0.34	-5.3	7
2022-11-05	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 0-0	58.7	1507	1533	38.28%	30.51%	31.21%	+0.12	-0.3	25
2022-11-05	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	58.7	1533	1507	31.21%	30.51%	38.28%	-0.12	+0.3	15
2022-11-05	Osijek	W 3-1	59.9	1718	1685	46.24%	29.27%	24.48%	+0.40	+8.3	34
2022-11-05	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-3	59.9	1685	1718	24.48%	29.27%	46.24%	-0.40	-8.3	27
2022-11-06	Rijeka	L 0-3	52.1	1549	1574	38.42%	30.50%	31.08%	+0.13	-19.5	22
2022-11-06	@ Varazdin	W 3-0	52.1	1574	1549	31.08%	30.50%	38.42%	-0.13	+19.5	15
2022-11-06	Sibenik	W 3-0	40.7	1789	1461	78.98%	13.25%	7.78%	+1.83	+3.7	38
2022-11-06	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-3	40.7	1461	1789	7.78%	13.25%	78.98%	-1.83	-3.7	13
2022-11-12	Hajduk Split	D 2-2	76.1	1507	1726	17.37%	25.47%	57.17%	-0.81	+1.1	26
2022-11-12	@ Slaven Belupo	D 2-2	76.1	1726	1507	57.17%	25.47%	17.37%	+0.81	-1.1	35
2022-11-12	Istra 1961	W 2-0	48.1	1533	1521	43.53%	29.84%	26.63%	+0.30	+10.2	18
2022-11-12	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-2	48.1	1521	1533	26.63%	29.84%	43.53%	-0.30	-10.2	20
2022-11-13	Dinamo Zagreb	L 2-7	53.3	1593	1792	18.76%	26.51%	54.73%	-0.72	-12.1	15
2022-11-13	@ Rijeka	W 7-2	53.3	1792	1593	54.73%	26.51%	18.76%	+0.72	+12.1	41
2022-11-13	Osijek	L 0-2	46.6	1458	1677	17.31%	25.42%	57.27%	-0.82	-6.8	13
2022-11-13	@ Sibenik	W 2-0	46.6	1677	1458	57.27%	25.42%	17.31%	+0.82	+6.8	30
2023-01-18	Varazdin	D 0-0	57.9	1490	1530	36.15%	30.62%	33.23%	+0.05	-0.1	8
2023-01-18	@ Gorica	D 0-0	57.9	1530	1490	33.23%	30.62%	36.15%	-0.05	+0.1	23
2023-01-20	Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	58.1	1511	1508	42.18%	30.07%	27.75%	+0.26	-0.6	21
2023-01-20	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	58.1	1508	1511	27.75%	30.07%	42.18%	-0.26	+0.6	27
2023-01-21	Gorica	D 0-0	70.2	1804	1490	77.91%	13.90%	8.19%	+1.77	-3.0	42
2023-01-21	@ Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	70.2	1490	1804	8.19%	13.90%	77.91%	-1.77	+3.0	9
2023-01-21	Rijeka	D 1-1	70.9	1684	1581	55.34%	26.26%	18.40%	+0.74	-1.4	31
2023-01-21	@ Osijek	D 1-1	70.9	1581	1684	18.40%	26.26%	55.34%	-0.74	+1.4	16
2023-01-22	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 0-0	60.0	1530	1543	40.01%	30.35%	29.64%	+0.18	-0.4	24
2023-01-22	@ Varazdin	D 0-0	60.0	1543	1530	29.64%	30.35%	40.01%	-0.18	+0.4	19
2023-01-22	Sibenik	W 2-1	51.9	1725	1451	74.20%	16.17%	9.63%	+1.57	+1.7	38
2023-01-22	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	51.9	1451	1725	9.63%	16.17%	74.20%	-1.57	-1.7	13
2023-01-27	Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	50.8	1530	1509	44.72%	29.61%	25.67%	+0.35	+5.3	27
2023-01-27	@ Varazdin	L 0-1	50.8	1509	1530	25.67%	29.61%	44.72%	-0.35	-5.3	27
2023-01-28	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	55.2	1801	1544	72.62%	17.13%	10.26%	+1.49	+1.8	45
2023-01-28	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	55.2	1544	1801	10.26%	17.13%	72.62%	-1.49	-1.8	19
2023-01-28	Rijeka	L 1-2	55.6	1449	1583	24.45%	29.26%	46.30%	-0.40	-4.8	13
2023-01-28	@ Sibenik	W 2-1	55.6	1583	1449	46.30%	29.26%	24.45%	+0.40	+4.8	19
2023-01-29	Hajduk Split	W 3-0	58.9	1510	1726	17.53%	25.60%	56.87%	-0.80	+26.2	24
2023-01-29	@ Istra 1961	L 0-3	58.9	1726	1510	56.87%	25.60%	17.53%	+0.80	-26.1	38
2023-01-29	Gorica	W 2-0	45.2	1683	1493	65.55%	21.22%	13.23%	+1.16	+5.0	34
2023-01-29	@ Osijek	L 0-2	45.2	1493	1683	13.23%	21.22%	65.55%	-1.16	-5.0	9
2023-02-03	Varazdin	W 2-1	58.3	1536	1535	42.02%	30.09%	27.89%	+0.25	+5.3	27
2023-02-03	@ Istra 1961	L 1-2	58.3	1535	1536	27.89%	30.09%	42.02%	-0.25	-5.3	27
2023-02-04	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	73.1	1504	1803	12.82%	20.71%	66.47%	-1.21	+2.1	28
2023-02-04	@ Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	73.1	1803	1504	66.47%	20.71%	12.82%	+1.21	-2.1	46
2023-02-04	Osijek	W 1-0	62.8	1542	1688	23.25%	28.84%	47.91%	-0.46	+8.4	22
2023-02-04	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	62.8	1688	1542	47.91%	28.84%	23.25%	+0.46	-8.4	34
2023-02-05	Rijeka	L 1-2	71.0	1700	1587	56.57%	25.73%	17.70%	+0.79	-9.0	38
2023-02-05	@ Hajduk Split	W 2-1	71.0	1587	1700	17.70%	25.73%	56.57%	-0.79	+9.0	22
2023-02-05	Sibenik	L 0-3	47.6	1488	1444	47.73%	28.89%	23.38%	+0.45	-22.9	9
2023-02-05	@ Gorica	W 3-0	47.6	1444	1488	23.38%	28.89%	47.73%	-0.45	+22.9	16
2023-02-10	Istra 1961	W 1-0	49.5	1801	1542	72.80%	17.02%	10.19%	+1.50	+1.9	49
2023-02-10	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	49.5	1542	1801	10.19%	17.02%	72.80%	-1.50	-1.9	27
2023-02-11	Hajduk Split	L 1-4	53.6	1530	1691	21.78%	28.23%	49.99%	-0.54	-10.6	27
2023-02-11	@ Varazdin	W 4-1	53.6	1691	1530	49.99%	28.23%	21.78%	+0.54	+10.6	41
2023-02-11	Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	65.7	1679	1506	63.71%	22.23%	14.06%	+1.08	-2.2	35
2023-02-11	@ Osijek	D 0-0	65.7	1506	1679	14.06%	22.23%	63.71%	-1.08	+2.2	29
2023-02-12	Gorica	W 2-0	43.7	1596	1465	58.86%	24.68%	16.45%	+0.88	+6.5	25
2023-02-12	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	43.7	1465	1596	16.45%	24.68%	58.86%	-0.88	-6.5	9
2023-02-12	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-4	45.7	1467	1550	30.26%	30.42%	39.32%	-0.16	-21.5	16
2023-02-12	@ Sibenik	W 4-0	45.7	1550	1467	39.32%	30.42%	30.26%	+0.16	+21.5	25
2023-02-17	Sibenik	L 0-1	54.6	1508	1446	50.20%	28.16%	21.64%	+0.55	-8.7	29
2023-02-17	@ Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	54.6	1446	1508	21.64%	28.16%	50.20%	-0.55	+8.7	19
2023-02-18	Osijek	W 1-0	62.3	1540	1677	24.06%	29.13%	46.80%	-0.42	+8.2	30
2023-02-18	@ Istra 1961	L 0-1	62.3	1677	1540	46.80%	29.13%	24.06%	+0.42	-8.2	35
2023-02-18	Rijeka	L 1-2	64.5	1572	1603	37.45%	30.56%	31.98%	+0.09	-6.6	25
2023-02-18	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	64.5	1603	1572	31.98%	30.56%	37.45%	-0.09	+6.6	28
2023-02-19	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-3	53.6	1519	1803	13.59%	21.67%	64.74%	-1.13	-4.5	27
2023-02-19	@ Varazdin	W 3-1	53.6	1803	1519	64.74%	21.67%	13.59%	+1.13	+4.5	52
2023-02-19	Gorica	W 2-1	52.4	1702	1458	71.22%	17.96%	10.82%	+1.42	+1.9	44
2023-02-19	@ Hajduk Split	L 1-2	52.4	1458	1702	10.82%	17.96%	71.22%	-1.42	-1.9	9
2023-02-24	Istra 1961	D 0-0	57.4	1454	1548	28.96%	30.26%	40.78%	-0.21	+0.5	20
2023-02-24	@ Sibenik	D 0-0	57.4	1548	1454	40.78%	30.26%	28.96%	+0.21	-0.5	31
2023-02-25	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 1-0	55.4	1456	1565	27.13%	29.95%	42.93%	-0.28	+7.7	12
2023-02-25	@ Gorica	L 0-1	55.4	1565	1456	42.93%	29.95%	27.13%	+0.28	-7.7	25
2023-02-25	Slaven Belupo	L 0-1	61.3	1610	1499	56.28%	25.86%	17.86%	+0.78	-9.5	28
2023-02-25	@ Rijeka	W 1-0	61.3	1499	1610	17.86%	25.86%	56.28%	-0.78	+9.5	32
2023-02-26	Hajduk Split	W 4-0	49.7	1807	1704	55.46%	26.21%	18.33%	+0.75	+13.8	55
2023-02-26	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	49.7	1704	1807	18.33%	26.21%	55.46%	-0.75	-13.8	44
2023-02-26	Varazdin	L 0-1	64.2	1669	1515	61.49%	23.39%	15.12%	+0.99	-10.1	35
2023-02-26	@ Osijek	W 1-0	64.2	1515	1669	15.12%	23.39%	61.49%	-0.99	+10.1	30
2023-03-03	Rijeka	L 0-2	53.7	1547	1600	34.38%	30.64%	34.98%	-0.01	-12.4	31
2023-03-03	@ Istra 1961	W 2-0	53.7	1600	1547	34.98%	30.64%	34.38%	+0.01	+12.4	31
2023-03-04	Gorica	D 1-1	61.5	1509	1464	47.91%	28.84%	23.24%	+0.46	-0.9	33
2023-03-04	@ Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	61.5	1464	1509	23.24%	28.84%	47.91%	-0.46	+0.9	13
2023-03-04	Sibenik	W 2-0	43.0	1525	1455	51.20%	27.83%	20.97%	+0.58	+8.3	33
2023-03-04	@ Varazdin	L 0-2	43.0	1455	1525	20.97%	27.83%	51.20%	-0.58	-8.3	20
2023-03-05	Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 3-4	77.9	1690	1557	58.95%	24.64%	16.40%	+0.89	-8.6	44
2023-03-05	@ Hajduk Split	W 4-3	77.9	1557	1690	16.40%	24.64%	58.95%	-0.89	+8.6	28
2023-03-05	Osijek	D 1-1	73.8	1821	1659	62.46%	22.89%	14.65%	+1.03	-1.9	56
2023-03-05	@ Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	73.8	1659	1821	14.65%	22.89%	62.46%	-1.03	+1.9	36
2023-03-10	Istra 1961	W 5-4	66.8	1465	1535	31.96%	30.56%	37.48%	-0.09	+6.0	16
2023-03-10	@ Gorica	L 4-5	66.8	1535	1465	37.48%	30.56%	31.96%	+0.09	-6.0	31
2023-03-11	Dinamo Zagreb	W 2-1	73.0	1447	1819	9.72%	16.30%	73.98%	-1.56	+10.8	23
2023-03-11	@ Sibenik	L 1-2	73.0	1819	1447	73.98%	16.30%	9.72%	+1.56	-10.8	56
2023-03-11	Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	50.6	1566	1508	49.70%	28.32%	21.98%	+0.53	+4.6	31
2023-03-11	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	50.6	1508	1566	21.98%	28.32%	49.70%	-0.53	-4.6	33
2023-03-12	Hajduk Split	L 0-2	58.5	1661	1681	38.92%	30.46%	30.62%	+0.14	-13.5	36
2023-03-12	@ Osijek	W 2-0	58.5	1681	1661	30.62%	30.46%	38.92%	-0.14	+13.5	47
2023-03-12	Varazdin	W 3-1	53.9	1612	1533	52.42%	27.40%	20.18%	+0.63	+6.9	34
2023-03-12	@ Rijeka	L 1-3	53.9	1533	1612	20.18%	27.40%	52.42%	-0.63	-6.9	33
2023-03-15	Dinamo Zagreb	W 1-0	67.2	1529	1809	13.81%	21.93%	64.26%	-1.11	+10.4	34
2023-03-15	@ Istra 1961	L 0-1	67.2	1809	1529	64.26%	21.93%	13.81%	+1.11	-10.4	56
2023-03-17	Gorica	W 2-1	53.4	1526	1471	49.30%	28.44%	22.25%	+0.51	+4.4	36
2023-03-17	@ Varazdin	L 1-2	53.4	1471	1526	22.25%	28.44%	49.30%	-0.51	-4.4	16
2023-03-18	Sibenik	D 0-0	63.7	1647	1457	65.51%	21.25%	13.25%	+1.16	-2.3	37
2023-03-18	@ Osijek	D 0-0	63.7	1457	1647	13.25%	21.25%	65.51%	-1.16	+2.3	24
2023-03-18	Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	49.4	1695	1503	65.75%	21.12%	13.14%	+1.17	+2.6	50
2023-03-18	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-1	49.4	1503	1695	13.14%	21.12%	65.75%	-1.17	-2.6	33
2023-03-19	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 0-0	61.1	1539	1571	37.46%	30.56%	31.98%	+0.09	-0.2	35
2023-03-19	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	61.1	1571	1539	31.98%	30.56%	37.46%	-0.09	+0.2	32
2023-03-19	Rijeka	W 1-0	52.7	1798	1619	64.30%	21.91%	13.79%	+1.11	+2.8	59
2023-03-19	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-1	52.7	1619	1798	13.79%	21.91%	64.30%	-1.11	-2.8	34
2023-03-31	Istra 1961	W 2-0	49.7	1500	1539	36.38%	30.61%	33.01%	+0.06	+12.0	36
2023-03-31	@ Slaven Belupo	L 0-2	49.7	1539	1500	33.01%	30.61%	36.38%	-0.06	-12.0	35
2023-04-01	Dinamo Zagreb	D 1-1	73.2	1467	1801	11.25%	18.58%	70.17%	-1.37	+2.3	17
2023-04-01	@ Gorica	D 1-1	73.2	1801	1467	70.17%	18.58%	11.25%	+1.37	-2.3	60
2023-04-01	Hajduk Split	L 2-3	60.5	1460	1698	16.14%	24.40%	59.46%	-0.91	-3.0	24
2023-04-01	@ Sibenik	W 3-2	60.5	1698	1460	59.46%	24.40%	16.14%	+0.91	+3.0	53
2023-04-02	Osijek	D 1-1	69.5	1617	1645	37.89%	30.54%	31.58%	+0.11	-0.2	35
2023-04-02	@ Rijeka	D 1-1	69.5	1645	1617	31.58%	30.54%	37.89%	-0.11	+0.2	38
2023-04-02	Varazdin	D 1-1	66.1	1571	1531	47.33%	29.00%	23.67%	+0.44	-0.9	33
2023-04-02	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 1-1	66.1	1531	1571	23.67%	29.00%	47.33%	-0.44	+0.9	37
2023-04-07	Istra 1961	D 2-2	77.0	1701	1527	63.69%	22.24%	14.07%	+1.08	-1.5	54
2023-04-07	@ Hajduk Split	D 2-2	77.0	1527	1701	14.07%	22.24%	63.69%	-1.08	+1.4	36
2023-04-07	Varazdin	D 1-1	63.7	1513	1531	39.20%	30.43%	30.36%	+0.15	-0.3	37
2023-04-07	@ Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	63.7	1531	1513	30.36%	30.43%	39.20%	-0.15	+0.3	38
2023-04-08	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	59.6	1570	1799	16.72%	24.92%	58.37%	-0.86	-3.3	33
2023-04-08	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-1	59.6	1799	1570	58.37%	24.92%	16.72%	+0.86	+3.3	63
2023-04-08	Osijek	W 2-0	57.0	1469	1645	20.53%	27.60%	51.87%	-0.61	+16.8	20
2023-04-08	@ Gorica	L 0-2	57.0	1645	1469	51.87%	27.60%	20.53%	+0.61	-16.8	38
2023-04-08	Sibenik	W 1-0	46.8	1616	1457	62.13%	23.06%	14.81%	+1.02	+3.0	38
2023-04-08	@ Rijeka	L 0-1	46.8	1457	1616	14.81%	23.06%	62.13%	-1.02	-3.0	24
2023-04-14	Gorica	L 0-4	44.9	1454	1486	37.34%	30.57%	32.09%	+0.09	-24.9	24
2023-04-14	@ Sibenik	W 4-0	44.9	1486	1454	32.09%	30.57%	37.34%	-0.09	+24.9	23
2023-04-15	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	74.5	1628	1567	50.13%	28.19%	21.69%	+0.54	-0.8	39
2023-04-15	@ Osijek	D 2-2	74.5	1567	1628	21.69%	28.19%	50.13%	-0.54	+0.8	34
2023-04-15	Slaven Belupo	W 4-0	42.4	1802	1512	75.67%	15.28%	9.05%	+1.65	+5.8	66
2023-04-15	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	42.4	1512	1802	9.05%	15.28%	75.67%	-1.65	-5.8	37
2023-04-16	Hajduk Split	W 2-0	58.3	1619	1699	30.69%	30.47%	38.85%	-0.14	+13.5	41
2023-04-16	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	58.3	1699	1619	38.85%	30.47%	30.69%	+0.14	-13.5	54
2023-04-16	Istra 1961	D 0-0	59.6	1532	1529	42.28%	30.05%	27.67%	+0.26	-0.6	39
2023-04-16	@ Varazdin	D 0-0	59.6	1529	1532	27.67%	30.05%	42.28%	-0.26	+0.6	37
2023-04-21	Osijek	W 2-1	65.2	1506	1627	25.77%	29.64%	44.59%	-0.34	+7.5	40
2023-04-21	@ Slaven Belupo	L 1-2	65.2	1627	1506	44.59%	29.64%	25.77%	+0.34	-7.5	39
2023-04-21	Sibenik	W 1-0	44.7	1567	1429	59.69%	24.29%	16.02%	+0.92	+3.3	37
2023-04-21	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 0-1	44.7	1429	1567	16.02%	24.29%	59.69%	-0.92	-3.3	24
2023-04-22	Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	68.3	1529	1808	13.86%	21.99%	64.15%	-1.10	+2.2	38
2023-04-22	@ Istra 1961	D 0-0	68.3	1808	1529	64.15%	21.99%	13.86%	+1.10	-2.2	67
2023-04-22	Varazdin	W 2-0	47.4	1686	1531	61.53%	23.37%	15.10%	+0.99	+5.9	57
2023-04-22	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-2	47.4	1531	1686	15.10%	23.37%	61.53%	-0.99	-5.9	39
2023-04-23	Rijeka	W 1-0	60.0	1511	1633	25.62%	29.60%	44.78%	-0.35	+8.0	26
2023-04-23	@ Gorica	L 0-1	60.0	1633	1511	44.78%	29.60%	25.62%	+0.35	-8.0	41
2023-04-25	Slaven Belupo	W 3-1	53.6	1425	1514	29.57%	30.35%	40.09%	-0.18	+12.0	27
2023-04-25	@ Sibenik	L 1-3	53.6	1514	1425	40.09%	30.35%	29.57%	+0.18	-12.0	40
2023-04-26	Hajduk Split	D 0-0	64.6	1519	1691	20.80%	27.74%	51.46%	-0.59	+1.3	27
2023-04-26	@ Gorica	D 0-0	64.6	1691	1519	51.46%	27.74%	20.80%	+0.59	-1.3	58
2023-04-26	Istra 1961	W 1-0	51.8	1620	1531	53.57%	26.97%	19.46%	+0.67	+4.1	42
2023-04-26	@ Osijek	L 0-1	51.8	1531	1620	19.46%	26.97%	53.57%	-0.67	-4.1	38
2023-04-26	Varazdin	W 2-0	45.2	1806	1525	74.80%	15.81%	9.40%	+1.60	+3.2	70
2023-04-26	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-2	45.2	1525	1806	9.40%	15.81%	74.80%	-1.60	-3.2	39
2023-04-27	Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 2-0	50.6	1625	1571	49.17%	28.48%	22.35%	+0.51	+8.8	44
2023-04-27	@ Rijeka	L 0-2	50.6	1571	1625	22.35%	28.48%	49.17%	-0.51	-8.8	37
2023-04-29	Sibenik	W 3-0	39.6	1527	1437	53.75%	26.90%	19.35%	+0.68	+11.2	41
2023-04-29	@ Istra 1961	L 0-3	39.6	1437	1527	19.35%	26.90%	53.75%	-0.68	-11.2	27
2023-04-30	Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	67.0	1690	1809	26.03%	29.70%	44.27%	-0.33	+0.7	59
2023-04-30	@ Hajduk Split	D 0-0	67.0	1809	1690	44.27%	29.70%	26.03%	+0.33	-0.7	71
2023-04-30	Osijek	L 1-3	57.1	1522	1624	27.93%	30.10%	41.97%	-0.25	-9.2	39
2023-04-30	@ Varazdin	W 3-1	57.1	1624	1522	41.97%	30.10%	27.93%	+0.25	+9.2	45
2023-05-01	Gorica	D 2-2	71.0	1562	1520	47.58%	28.93%	23.49%	+0.45	-0.7	38
2023-05-01	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 2-2	71.0	1520	1562	23.49%	28.93%	47.58%	-0.45	+0.7	28
2023-05-01	Rijeka	L 1-3	55.6	1502	1634	24.62%	29.31%	46.06%	-0.39	-8.3	40
2023-05-01	@ Slaven Belupo	W 3-1	55.6	1634	1502	46.06%	29.31%	24.62%	+0.39	+8.3	47
2023-05-05	Varazdin	L 0-2	44.9	1426	1513	29.80%	30.37%	39.83%	-0.17	-11.2	27
2023-05-05	@ Sibenik	W 2-0	44.9	1513	1426	39.83%	30.37%	29.80%	+0.17	+11.2	42
2023-05-06	Istra 1961	D 2-2	74.7	1642	1538	55.45%	26.21%	18.33%	+0.75	-1.1	48
2023-05-06	@ Rijeka	D 2-2	74.7	1538	1642	18.33%	26.21%	55.45%	-0.75	+1.1	42
2023-05-06	Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	58.1	1520	1494	45.54%	29.43%	25.03%	+0.37	-0.8	29
2023-05-06	@ Gorica	D 0-0	58.1	1494	1520	25.03%	29.43%	45.54%	-0.37	+0.8	41
2023-05-07	Dinamo Zagreb	D 0-0	67.4	1633	1808	20.64%	27.66%	51.70%	-0.60	+1.3	46
2023-05-07	@ Osijek	D 0-0	67.4	1808	1633	51.70%	27.66%	20.64%	+0.60	-1.3	72
2023-05-07	Hajduk Split	L 0-3	50.7	1561	1691	24.86%	29.38%	45.76%	-0.38	-14.1	38
2023-05-07	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	W 3-0	50.7	1691	1561	45.76%	29.38%	24.86%	+0.38	+14.1	62
2023-05-12	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 0-0	58.7	1494	1547	34.35%	30.64%	35.01%	-0.01	+0.0	42
2023-05-12	@ Slaven Belupo	D 0-0	58.7	1547	1494	35.01%	30.64%	34.35%	+0.01	-0.0	39
2023-05-13	Gorica	W 1-0	51.6	1540	1520	44.59%	29.64%	25.77%	+0.34	+5.3	45
2023-05-13	@ Istra 1961	L 0-1	51.6	1520	1540	25.77%	29.64%	44.59%	-0.34	-5.3	29
2023-05-13	Osijek	W 3-0	50.3	1705	1634	51.28%	27.80%	20.92%	+0.59	+12.0	65
2023-05-13	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-3	50.3	1634	1705	20.92%	27.80%	51.28%	-0.59	-12.0	46
2023-05-14	Rijeka	W 2-0	56.8	1524	1641	26.21%	29.75%	44.05%	-0.32	+14.8	45
2023-05-14	@ Varazdin	L 0-2	56.8	1641	1524	44.05%	29.75%	26.21%	+0.32	-14.8	48
2023-05-14	Sibenik	W 4-0	38.4	1807	1415	83.92%	10.18%	5.90%	+2.14	+3.4	75
2023-05-14	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 0-4	38.4	1415	1807	5.90%	10.18%	83.92%	-2.14	-3.4	27
2023-05-19	Hajduk Split	L 0-1	52.1	1494	1717	17.11%	25.26%	57.63%	-0.83	-3.6	42
2023-05-19	@ Slaven Belupo	W 1-0	52.1	1717	1494	57.63%	25.26%	17.11%	+0.83	+3.6	68
2023-05-19	Osijek	L 1-4	46.2	1412	1622	17.90%	25.89%	56.21%	-0.78	-8.7	27
2023-05-19	@ Sibenik	W 4-1	46.2	1622	1412	56.21%	25.89%	17.90%	+0.78	+8.7	49
2023-05-20	Varazdin	W 5-2	54.7	1514	1539	38.41%	30.50%	31.09%	+0.13	+12.2	32
2023-05-20	@ Gorica	L 2-5	54.7	1539	1514	31.09%	30.50%	38.41%	-0.13	-12.2	45
2023-05-21	Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-2	61.8	1626	1810	19.90%	27.24%	52.87%	-0.65	-4.0	48
2023-05-21	@ Rijeka	W 2-1	61.8	1810	1626	52.87%	27.24%	19.90%	+0.65	+4.0	78
2023-05-21	Istra 1961	W 3-1	55.4	1547	1545	42.18%	30.07%	27.75%	+0.26	+9.2	42
2023-05-21	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	L 1-3	55.4	1545	1547	27.75%	30.07%	42.18%	-0.26	-9.2	45
2023-05-26	Lokomotiva Zagreb	D 0-0	60.2	1527	1556	37.65%	30.55%	31.79%	+0.10	-0.2	46
2023-05-26	@ Varazdin	D 0-0	60.2	1556	1527	31.79%	30.55%	37.65%	-0.10	+0.2	43
2023-05-27	Rijeka	D 1-1	69.6	1631	1622	43.08%	29.92%	27.00%	+0.29	-0.6	50
2023-05-27	@ Osijek	D 1-1	69.6	1622	1631	27.00%	29.92%	43.08%	-0.29	+0.6	49
2023-05-27	Slaven Belupo	D 1-1	63.5	1536	1491	47.93%	28.84%	23.23%	+0.46	-0.9	46
2023-05-27	@ Istra 1961	D 1-1	63.5	1491	1536	23.23%	28.84%	47.93%	-0.46	+0.9	43
2023-05-28	Gorica	W 4-1	47.8	1814	1527	75.47%	15.40%	9.13%	+1.64	+3.8	81
2023-05-28	@ Dinamo Zagreb	L 1-4	47.8	1527	1814	9.13%	15.40%	75.47%	-1.64	-3.8	32
2023-05-28	Sibenik	W 3-0	38.0	1721	1403	78.17%	13.74%	8.09%	+1.78	+3.9	71
2023-05-28	@ Hajduk Split	L 0-3	38.0	1403	1721	8.09%	13.74%	78.17%	-1.78	-3.9	27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2023-03-11	9.72%	@ Sibenik	1447	2	Dinamo Zagreb	1819	1
2	2023-03-15	13.81%	@ Istra 1961	1529	1	Dinamo Zagreb	1809	0
3	2023-02-26	15.12%	Varazdin	1515	1	@ Osijek	1669	0
4	2023-03-05	16.40%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1557	4	@ Hajduk Split	1690	3
5	2023-01-29	17.53%	@ Istra 1961	1510	3	Hajduk Split	1726	0
6	2023-02-05	17.70%	Rijeka	1587	2	@ Hajduk Split	1700	1
7	2022-08-14	17.78%	Slaven Belupo	1507	1	@ Rijeka	1618	0
8	2023-02-25	17.86%	Slaven Belupo	1499	1	@ Rijeka	1610	0
9	2022-08-27	19.04%	Varazdin	1514	2	@ Rijeka	1608	1
10	2022-08-06	19.27%	@ Istra 1961	1467	1	Osijek	1659	0
11	2022-10-29	20.44%	Istra 1961	1507	1	@ Rijeka	1583	0
12	2023-04-08	20.53%	@ Gorica	1469	2	Osijek	1645	0
13	2022-10-22	20.64%	@ Varazdin	1523	4	Osijek	1698	1
14	2022-08-26	20.66%	Istra 1961	1478	2	@ Gorica	1551	0
15	2023-02-17	21.64%	Sibenik	1446	1	@ Slaven Belupo	1508	0
16	2023-02-04	23.25%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1542	1	Osijek	1688	0
17	2023-02-05	23.38%	Sibenik	1444	3	@ Gorica	1488	0
18	2022-08-27	23.59%	Slaven Belupo	1522	1	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1563	0
19	2023-02-18	24.06%	@ Istra 1961	1540	1	Osijek	1677	0
20	2022-09-11	24.39%	Istra 1961	1488	3	@ Slaven Belupo	1521	0
21	2022-09-11	24.41%	Varazdin	1528	2	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1561	1
22	2023-04-23	25.62%	@ Gorica	1511	1	Rijeka	1633	0
23	2023-04-21	25.77%	@ Slaven Belupo	1506	2	Osijek	1627	1
24	2022-10-29	26.00%	@ Osijek	1678	1	Dinamo Zagreb	1796	0
25	2023-05-14	26.21%	@ Varazdin	1524	2	Rijeka	1641	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-01-29	26.15	@ Istra 1961	3	1510	17.53%	Hajduk Split	0	1726	56.87%	25.60%
2	2023-04-14	24.92	Gorica	4	1486	32.09%	@ Sibenik	0	1454	37.34%	30.57%
3	2023-02-05	22.89	Sibenik	3	1444	23.38%	@ Gorica	0	1488	47.73%	28.89%
4	2022-09-11	22.39	Istra 1961	3	1488	24.39%	@ Slaven Belupo	0	1521	46.37%	29.24%
5	2023-02-12	21.46	Lokomotiva Zagreb	4	1550	39.32%	@ Sibenik	0	1467	30.26%	30.42%
6	2022-10-22	20.51	@ Varazdin	4	1523	20.64%	Osijek	1	1698	51.71%	27.66%
7	2022-11-06	19.47	Rijeka	3	1574	31.08%	@ Varazdin	0	1549	38.42%	30.50%
8	2022-09-10	18.07	Osijek	3	1646	34.79%	@ Rijeka	0	1595	34.57%	30.64%
9	2023-04-08	16.80	@ Gorica	2	1469	20.53%	Osijek	0	1645	51.87%	27.60%
10	2022-08-26	16.75	Istra 1961	2	1478	20.66%	@ Gorica	0	1551	51.66%	27.67%
11	2022-10-09	15.48	Osijek	4	1677	51.83%	@ Slaven Belupo	0	1502	20.56%	27.61%
12	2023-05-14	14.83	@ Varazdin	2	1524	26.21%	Rijeka	0	1641	44.05%	29.75%
13	2022-10-14	14.07	Slaven Belupo	2	1486	28.74%	@ Sibenik	0	1480	41.03%	30.23%
14	2023-05-07	14.06	Hajduk Split	3	1691	45.76%	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1561	24.86%	29.38%
15	2023-02-26	13.80	@ Dinamo Zagreb	4	1807	55.46%	Hajduk Split	0	1704	18.33%	26.21%
16	2022-10-16	13.72	@ Rijeka	3	1576	46.69%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1541	24.15%	29.16%
17	2023-03-12	13.54	Hajduk Split	2	1681	30.62%	@ Osijek	0	1661	38.92%	30.46%
18	2023-04-16	13.52	@ Rijeka	2	1619	30.69%	Hajduk Split	0	1699	38.85%	30.47%
19	2022-10-09	12.76	Rijeka	2	1563	33.53%	@ Gorica	0	1521	35.84%	30.63%
20	2023-03-03	12.40	Rijeka	2	1600	34.98%	@ Istra 1961	0	1547	34.38%	30.64%
21	2023-05-20	12.24	@ Gorica	5	1514	38.41%	Varazdin	2	1539	31.09%	30.50%
22	2022-11-13	12.07	Dinamo Zagreb	7	1792	54.73%	@ Rijeka	2	1593	18.76%	26.51%
23	2023-03-31	12.05	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1500	36.38%	Istra 1961	0	1539	33.01%	30.61%
24	2023-05-13	12.05	@ Hajduk Split	3	1705	51.28%	Osijek	0	1634	20.92%	27.80%
25	2023-04-25	11.97	@ Sibenik	3	1425	29.57%	Slaven Belupo	1	1514	40.09%	30.35%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-03-05	77.9	Lokomotiva Zagreb	4	1557	16.40%	@ Hajduk Split	3	1690	58.95%	24.64%
2	2022-09-17	77.1	@ Hajduk Split	2	1704	65.95%	Istra 1961	2	1511	13.05%	21.00%
3	2023-04-07	77.0	@ Hajduk Split	2	1701	63.69%	Istra 1961	2	1527	14.07%	22.24%
4	2022-11-12	76.1	@ Slaven Belupo	2	1507	17.37%	Hajduk Split	2	1726	57.17%	25.47%
5	2022-10-30	75.9	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1532	19.68%	Hajduk Split	2	1719	53.21%	27.11%
6	2022-08-14	74.9	@ Osijek	2	1650	59.46%	Varazdin	2	1513	16.14%	24.40%
7	2023-05-06	74.7	@ Rijeka	2	1642	55.45%	Istra 1961	2	1538	18.33%	26.21%
8	2023-04-15	74.5	@ Osijek	2	1628	50.13%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1567	21.69%	28.19%
9	2023-03-05	73.8	@ Dinamo Zagreb	1	1821	62.46%	Osijek	1	1659	14.65%	22.89%
10	2023-04-01	73.2	@ Gorica	1	1467	11.25%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1801	70.17%	18.58%
11	2023-02-04	73.1	@ Slaven Belupo	1	1504	12.82%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1803	66.47%	20.71%
12	2023-03-11	73.0	@ Sibenik	2	1447	9.72%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1819	73.98%	16.30%
13	2022-08-05	71.7	@ Varazdin	1	1512	15.48%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1760	60.76%	23.76%
14	2022-10-21	71.6	@ Hajduk Split	1	1714	30.34%	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1797	39.22%	30.43%
15	2023-02-05	71.0	Rijeka	2	1587	17.70%	@ Hajduk Split	1	1700	56.57%	25.73%
16	2023-05-01	71.0	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1562	47.58%	Gorica	2	1520	23.49%	28.93%
17	2023-01-21	70.9	@ Osijek	1	1684	55.34%	Rijeka	1	1581	18.40%	26.26%
18	2023-01-21	70.2	@ Dinamo Zagreb	0	1804	77.91%	Gorica	0	1490	8.19%	13.90%
19	2023-05-27	69.6	@ Osijek	1	1631	43.08%	Rijeka	1	1622	27.00%	29.92%
20	2023-04-02	69.5	@ Rijeka	1	1617	37.89%	Osijek	1	1645	31.58%	30.54%
21	2022-09-09	69.4	@ Sibenik	1	1476	17.08%	Hajduk Split	1	1699	57.69%	25.23%
22	2022-07-31	68.9	@ Rijeka	1	1631	52.53%	Gorica	1	1551	20.11%	27.36%
23	2022-09-03	68.8	@ Osijek	1	1648	63.73%	Sibenik	1	1474	14.05%	22.22%
24	2023-04-22	68.3	@ Istra 1961	0	1529	13.86%	Dinamo Zagreb	0	1808	64.15%	21.99%
25	2022-08-20	67.6	@ Varazdin	2	1515	47.11%	Sibenik	2	1476	23.84%	29.06%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-05-28	38.0	@ Hajduk Split	3	1721	78.17%	Sibenik	0	1403	8.09%	13.74%
2	2023-05-14	38.4	@ Dinamo Zagreb	4	1807	83.92%	Sibenik	0	1415	5.90%	10.18%
3	2023-04-29	39.6	@ Istra 1961	3	1527	53.75%	Sibenik	0	1437	19.35%	26.90%
4	2022-11-06	40.7	@ Dinamo Zagreb	3	1789	78.98%	Sibenik	0	1461	7.78%	13.25%
5	2023-04-15	42.4	@ Dinamo Zagreb	4	1802	75.67%	Slaven Belupo	0	1512	9.05%	15.28%
6	2023-03-04	43.0	@ Varazdin	2	1525	51.20%	Sibenik	0	1455	20.97%	27.83%
7	2023-02-12	43.7	@ Rijeka	2	1596	58.86%	Gorica	0	1465	16.45%	24.68%
8	2023-04-21	44.7	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1567	59.69%	Sibenik	0	1429	16.02%	24.29%
9	2023-04-14	44.9	Gorica	4	1486	32.09%	@ Sibenik	0	1454	37.34%	30.57%
10	2023-05-05	44.9	Varazdin	2	1513	39.83%	@ Sibenik	0	1426	29.80%	30.37%
11	2023-01-29	45.2	@ Osijek	2	1683	65.55%	Gorica	0	1493	13.23%	21.22%
12	2023-04-26	45.2	@ Dinamo Zagreb	2	1806	74.80%	Varazdin	0	1525	9.40%	15.81%
13	2023-02-12	45.7	Lokomotiva Zagreb	4	1550	39.32%	@ Sibenik	0	1467	30.26%	30.42%
14	2022-07-29	46.2	@ Dinamo Zagreb	4	1757	75.29%	Istra 1961	1	1471	9.20%	15.51%
15	2023-05-19	46.2	Osijek	4	1622	56.21%	@ Sibenik	1	1412	17.90%	25.89%
16	2022-10-15	46.3	@ Osijek	2	1693	64.43%	Istra 1961	0	1513	13.73%	21.84%
17	2022-11-13	46.6	Osijek	2	1677	57.27%	@ Sibenik	0	1458	17.31%	25.42%
18	2023-04-08	46.8	@ Rijeka	1	1616	62.13%	Sibenik	0	1457	14.81%	23.06%
19	2022-10-09	47.1	Osijek	4	1677	51.83%	@ Slaven Belupo	0	1502	20.56%	27.61%
20	2022-10-16	47.2	@ Rijeka	3	1576	46.69%	Lokomotiva Zagreb	0	1541	24.15%	29.16%
21	2022-10-01	47.3	@ Dinamo Zagreb	4	1790	75.19%	Slaven Belupo	1	1505	9.24%	15.57%
22	2023-04-22	47.4	@ Hajduk Split	2	1686	61.53%	Varazdin	0	1531	15.10%	23.37%
23	2023-02-05	47.6	Sibenik	3	1444	23.38%	@ Gorica	0	1488	47.73%	28.89%
24	2023-05-28	47.8	@ Dinamo Zagreb	4	1814	75.47%	Gorica	1	1527	9.13%	15.40%
25	2022-11-12	48.1	@ Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	1533	43.53%	Istra 1961	0	1521	26.63%	29.84%