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2020-21 1st Division Season

192 games

Final

Promoted

Viborg

76 pts

Silkeborg · 73 pts

Relegated

Skive

28 pts

Kolding FC · 32 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Viborg

38.52 points above expected

76 points · 37.48 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hobro

1.05 points above expected

34 points · 32.95 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Viborg 22 17 5 0 56 45 14 +31 37.48 +18.52
2 Silkeborg 22 16 1 5 49 53 19 +34 38.03 +10.97
3 Esbjerg 22 15 3 4 48 33 20 +13 36.19 +11.81
4 Helsingor 22 11 3 8 36 31 27 +4 26.42 +9.58
5 Fredericia 22 9 5 8 32 29 27 +2 31.64 +0.36
6 HB Koge 22 8 6 8 30 23 25 -2 26.88 +3.12
7 Fremad Amager 22 8 4 10 28 40 29 +11 33.23 -5.23
8 Hobro 22 6 6 10 24 30 40 -10 32.95 -8.95
9 Hvidovre 22 7 2 13 23 23 38 -15 24.93 -1.93
10 Vendsyssel 22 4 4 14 16 19 40 -21 26.07 -10.07
11 Kolding IF 22 2 8 12 14 19 40 -21 26.68 -12.68
12 Skive 22 3 5 14 14 19 45 -26 22.47 -8.47
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Viborg Promoted 32 23 7 2 76 71 24 +47 — —
2 Silkeborg Promoted 32 23 4 5 73 76 28 +48 — —
3 Esbjerg 32 18 5 9 59 43 38 +5 — —
4 Helsingor 32 16 5 11 53 50 41 +9 — —
5 Fredericia 32 13 5 14 44 42 44 -2 — —
6 HB Koge 32 8 7 17 31 28 53 -25 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hvidovre 32 11 6 15 39 40 47 -7 — —
2 Fremad Amager 32 10 5 17 35 47 41 +6 — —
3 Hobro 32 8 10 14 34 38 51 -13 — —
4 Vendsyssel 32 8 8 16 32 33 51 -18 — —
5 Kolding IF 32 7 11 14 32 31 49 -18 — —
6 Skive Relegated 32 7 7 18 28 28 60 -32 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Viborg 76 37.48 +38.52
2 Silkeborg 73 38.03 +34.97
3 Helsingor 53 26.42 +26.58
4 Esbjerg 59 36.19 +22.81
5 Hvidovre 39 24.93 +14.07

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hobro 34 32.95 +1.05
2 Fremad Amager 35 33.23 +1.77
3 HB Koge 31 26.88 +4.12
4 Kolding IF 32 26.68 +5.32
5 Skive 28 22.47 +5.53

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Esbjerg 8 Oct 24 – Dec 20 1 in 450
2 Helsingor 5 Feb 12 – Mar 12 1 in 234
3 Silkeborg 9 Dec 12 – Apr 5 1 in 190
4 Hvidovre 4 Nov 7 – Dec 6 1 in 167
5 Viborg 7 Dec 18 – Mar 19 1 in 62

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fremad Amager 6 Apr 30 – May 27 1 in 1,348
2 HB Koge 9 Apr 9 – May 26 1 in 457
3 Hvidovre 5 Sep 11 – Oct 1 1 in 84
4 Kolding IF 5 Sep 13 – Sep 30 1 in 75
5 Hobro 4 Mar 13 – Apr 9 1 in 64

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viborg 25 Sep 10 – Apr 16 1 in 2,516
2 Silkeborg 18 Dec 12 – May 26 1 in 120
3 Kolding IF 6 Oct 3 – Nov 7 1 in 29
4 Esbjerg 10 Oct 24 – Feb 21 1 in 27
5 HB Koge 6 Dec 4 – Feb 28 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hobro 12 Dec 18 – May 2 1 in 490
2 Skive 14 Sep 12 – Dec 4 1 in 101
3 HB Koge 13 Mar 7 – May 26 1 in 72
4 Kolding IF 10 Dec 3 – Apr 4 1 in 45
5 Fremad Amager 6 Nov 7 – Dec 20 1 in 39

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Viborg 1583 76 +39 13 8.5 +4.5
Silkeborg 1599 73 +10 11 9.6 +1.4
Esbjerg 1473 59 -23 4 7.3 -3.3
Helsingor 1436 53 +15 8 5.9 +2.1
Fredericia 1424 44 -1 6 5.6 +0.4
Hvidovre 1388 39 +11 8 7.1 +0.9
Fremad Amager 1407 35 -29 0 7.9 -7.9
Hobro 1402 34 -13 7 8.2 -1.2
Vendsyssel 1368 32 +23 10 6.2 +3.8
Kolding IF 1362 32 +11 10 6.2 +3.8
HB Koge 1338 31 -40 0 4.5 -4.5
Skive 1304 28 -4 7 5.7 +1.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ESB FRE FA HK HEL HOB HVI KI SIL SKI VEN VIB
Esbjerg —
3-0-1
6.38
2-0-0
3.01
4-0-0
7.04
2-1-1
6.80
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-1
3.74
1-1-0
3.54
0-1-3
4.72
2-0-0
3.62
1-1-0
3.71
0-1-3
4.84
Fredericia
1-0-3
4.60
—
2-0-0
2.59
3-1-0
6.23
1-0-3
5.94
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
3.36
2-0-0
3.01
1-0-3
3.84
2-0-0
3.54
0-2-0
3.27
0-1-3
3.96
Fremad Amager
0-0-2
2.48
0-0-2
2.90
—
1-0-1
3.21
1-0-1
3.29
1-2-1
5.67
2-0-2
6.68
0-2-2
6.76
0-0-2
2.16
3-0-1
7.18
2-0-2
6.47
0-1-1
2.34
HB Koge
0-0-4
4.00
0-1-3
4.75
1-0-1
2.30
—
2-0-2
5.31
0-1-1
2.25
1-1-0
2.94
1-1-0
2.93
0-0-4
3.13
1-1-0
3.24
2-0-0
2.85
0-2-2
3.51
Helsingor
1-1-2
4.20
3-0-1
5.04
1-0-1
2.20
2-0-2
5.65
—
1-0-1
2.26
2-0-0
2.82
1-1-0
2.74
1-2-1
3.39
1-1-0
3.30
2-0-0
2.84
1-0-3
3.54
Hobro
0-0-2
2.50
1-1-0
2.92
1-2-1
5.30
1-1-0
3.25
1-0-1
3.24
—
1-1-2
6.58
0-2-2
6.73
0-0-2
2.17
2-1-1
7.27
1-1-2
6.71
0-1-1
2.55
Hvidovre
1-0-1
1.80
1-0-1
2.15
2-0-2
4.31
0-1-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.67
2-1-1
4.42
—
1-2-1
5.53
0-0-2
1.63
2-1-1
6.18
2-1-1
5.48
0-0-2
1.63
Kolding IF
0-1-1
1.98
0-0-2
2.47
2-2-0
4.25
0-1-1
2.57
0-1-1
2.75
2-2-0
4.27
1-2-1
5.44
—
0-0-2
1.83
1-1-2
6.14
1-1-2
5.65
0-0-2
1.77
Silkeborg
3-1-0
6.27
3-0-1
7.23
2-0-0
3.36
4-0-0
8.04
1-2-1
7.73
2-0-0
3.33
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
3.72
—
2-0-0
3.93
1-0-1
3.90
1-1-2
5.81
Skive
0-0-2
1.91
0-0-2
1.98
1-0-3
3.88
0-1-1
2.25
0-1-1
2.20
1-1-2
3.79
1-1-2
4.81
2-1-1
4.85
0-0-2
1.62
—
2-2-0
4.91
0-0-2
1.56
Vendsyssel
0-1-1
1.82
0-2-0
2.24
2-0-2
4.53
0-0-2
2.64
0-0-2
2.64
2-1-1
4.29
1-1-2
5.50
2-1-1
5.32
1-0-1
1.65
0-2-2
6.07
—
0-0-2
1.79
Viborg
3-1-0
6.15
3-1-0
7.09
1-1-0
3.15
2-2-0
7.62
3-0-1
7.55
1-1-0
2.96
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
3.77
2-1-1
5.16
2-0-0
4.01
2-0-0
3.75
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +9.9
Allowed 0.89 -15.2
Differential 0.89 +6.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%7.29%7.03%5.73%2.86%0.52%27.60%
17.29%11.98%9.38%2.86%0.78%0.52%32.81%
27.03%9.38%3.12%1.04%1.30%—21.88%
35.73%2.86%1.04%1.56%0.26%—11.46%
42.86%0.78%1.30%0.26%——5.21%
5+0.52%0.52%————1.04%
Total27.60%32.81%21.88%11.46%5.21%1.04%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.37 1.37 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.96
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%9.38%—6.25%—21.88%
115.62%6.25%6.25%3.12%——31.25%
212.50%18.75%6.25%———37.50%
3—6.25%3.12%———9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.25%34.38%25.00%3.12%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.19 +0.16
SD 0.94 1.12 1.67
CV 0.70 0.94 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%3.12%3.12%3.12%—21.88%
16.25%15.62%9.38%6.25%3.12%—40.62%
23.12%18.75%—3.12%——25.00%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total18.75%50.00%12.50%12.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.38 -0.06
SD 1.03 1.13 1.83
CV 0.78 0.82 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%12.50%6.25%——37.50%
1—6.25%12.50%6.25%——25.00%
26.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%——15.62%
36.25%—————6.25%
49.38%—————9.38%
5+3.12%3.12%————6.25%
Total31.25%25.00%28.12%15.62%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.28 +0.19
SD 1.67 1.08 2.39
CV 1.13 0.85 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%6.25%12.50%3.12%3.12%43.75%
16.25%15.62%6.25%6.25%3.12%—37.50%
23.12%6.25%————9.38%
33.12%3.12%————6.25%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total18.75%37.50%15.62%18.75%6.25%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.66 -0.78
SD 1.04 1.33 1.91
CV 1.19 0.81 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%9.38%6.25%——28.12%
19.38%—9.38%——3.12%21.88%
26.25%15.62%3.12%———25.00%
39.38%3.12%—6.25%——18.75%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total34.38%25.00%25.00%12.50%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.28 +0.28
SD 1.34 1.25 2.00
CV 0.86 0.98 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%3.12%6.25%6.25%—31.25%
13.12%18.75%12.50%———34.38%
23.12%6.25%6.25%—3.12%—18.75%
33.12%6.25%3.12%—3.12%—15.62%
4———————
5+———————
Total15.62%40.62%25.00%6.25%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.59 -0.41
SD 1.06 1.21 1.66
CV 0.89 0.76 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%9.38%6.25%3.12%—31.25%
16.25%9.38%15.62%——3.12%34.38%
29.38%3.12%6.25%———18.75%
36.25%—3.12%———9.38%
43.12%——3.12%——6.25%
5+———————
Total28.12%21.88%34.38%9.38%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.47 -0.22
SD 1.19 1.27 1.96
CV 0.95 0.86 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%9.38%6.25%3.12%—34.38%
13.12%25.00%9.38%———37.50%
26.25%9.38%——9.38%—25.00%
3——3.12%———3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%40.62%21.88%6.25%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.53 -0.56
SD 0.86 1.24 1.46
CV 0.89 0.81 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%————6.25%
16.25%3.12%6.25%———15.62%
225.00%6.25%——3.12%—34.38%
312.50%3.12%—9.38%——25.00%
46.25%6.25%3.12%———15.62%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total50.00%28.12%9.38%9.38%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.38 0.88 +1.50
SD 1.21 1.13 1.63
CV 0.51 1.29 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—15.62%9.38%9.38%—40.62%
19.38%9.38%12.50%6.25%——37.50%
2—9.38%6.25%3.12%——18.75%
3———————
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total15.62%18.75%37.50%18.75%9.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.88 -1.00
SD 0.94 1.18 1.67
CV 1.08 0.63 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%3.12%9.38%—3.12%28.12%
16.25%18.75%12.50%6.25%3.12%—46.88%
26.25%6.25%3.12%3.12%——18.75%
36.25%—————6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.88%34.38%18.75%18.75%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.59 -0.56
SD 0.86 1.39 1.90
CV 0.83 0.87 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——3.12%3.12%——6.25%
115.62%15.62%————31.25%
23.12%9.38%3.12%———15.62%
315.62%9.38%—3.12%——28.12%
412.50%3.12%3.12%———18.75%
5+———————
Total46.88%37.50%9.38%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 0.75 +1.47
SD 1.26 0.88 1.70
CV 0.57 1.17 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Silkeborg 1599 73 38.03 +34.97 97.0% 20 27 34 38 42 47 54
Viborg 1583 76 37.48 +38.52 100.0% 21 27 34 37 41 45 50
Esbjerg 1473 59 36.19 +22.81 97.0% 23 26 32 36 40 46 53
Helsingor 1436 53 26.42 +26.58 96.0% 12 17 22 26 30 36 43
Fredericia 1424 44 31.64 +12.36 56.0% 18 23 27 32 35 42 45
Fremad Amager 1407 35 33.23 +1.77 27.0% 19 22 28 33 37 46 51
Hobro 1402 34 32.95 +1.05 3.0% 20 25 28 32 36 44 46
Hvidovre 1388 39 24.93 +14.07 45.0% 8 16 20 25 30 35 40
Vendsyssel 1368 32 26.07 +5.93 2.0% 14 17 22 26 30 36 40
Kolding IF 1362 32 26.68 +5.32 2.0% 12 17 22 27 31 36 41
HB Koge 1338 31 26.88 +4.12 75.0% 13 18 23 27 30 37 39
Skive 1304 28 22.47 +5.53 11.0% 9 12 18 22 26 32 38

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.38%
No Edge
44.27%20.83%34.90%
Elo Value
Home Edge
109 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
032.67300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.6
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
25%
Viborg, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Tight Race
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.72 * Some Luck: 4.72 to 7.08 * Lucky: 7.08 to 9.44 * Wild Swing: 9.44 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.77 * Close: 1.77 to 2.65 * Off: 2.65 to 3.54 * Way Off: 3.54 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 2 * A Surprise: 2 to 3.2 * Several Surprises: 3.2 to 4.4 * Many Surprises: 4.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
9.77 points
Wild Swing
05.9015
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.17
Close
02.215
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
100.00%
Viborg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
2.00%
Vendsyssel
050
Season Outliers
Expected
7 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 2.0
2 of 2
A Surprise
02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 82.02
2.19
Wide Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
81%
Even
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Some Drama
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
3.01
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.52
Some Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.74
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.49
Very Underconfident
0.3589691.001.64103
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.073
Well Within Noise
00.1160.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Viborg25.00%22.00%18.00%13.00%11.00%3.00%2.00%—4.00%—2.00%—
Silkeborg27.00%25.00%16.00%10.00%9.00%3.00%4.00%—4.00%—1.00%1.00%
Esbjerg24.00%10.00%17.00%15.00%13.00%5.00%4.00%6.00%2.00%4.00%——
Helsingor—6.00%1.00%4.00%6.00%9.00%9.00%15.00%12.00%13.00%18.00%7.00%
Fredericia2.00%8.00%14.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%11.00%14.00%4.00%8.00%2.00%2.00%
Hvidovre—2.00%5.00%1.00%4.00%11.00%8.00%9.00%11.00%14.00%19.00%16.00%
Fremad Amager13.00%8.00%13.00%15.00%9.00%10.00%14.00%3.00%7.00%4.00%4.00%—
Hobro7.00%11.00%8.00%13.00%13.00%14.00%9.00%12.00%8.00%3.00%2.00%—
Vendsyssel—3.00%3.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%12.00%14.00%13.00%11.00%19.00%13.00%
Kolding IF—1.00%1.00%7.00%10.00%9.00%11.00%13.00%10.00%13.00%9.00%16.00%
HB Koge2.00%3.00%3.00%7.00%4.00%13.00%11.00%9.00%12.00%20.00%6.00%10.00%
Skive—1.00%1.00%—5.00%7.00%5.00%5.00%13.00%10.00%18.00%35.00%
Team123456789101112
Viborg————————————
Silkeborg————————————
Esbjerg————————————
Helsingor————————————
Fredericia————————————
Hvidovre————————————
Fremad Amager————————————
Hobro————————————
Vendsyssel————————————
Kolding IF————————————
HB Koge————————————
Skive————————————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for Championship Round
Esbjerg 84.00% 16.00%
Fredericia 59.00% 41.00%
Fremad Amager 68.00% 32.00%
HB Koge 32.00% 68.00%
Helsingor 26.00% 74.00%
Hobro 66.00% 34.00%
Hvidovre 23.00% 77.00%
Kolding IF 28.00% 72.00%
Silkeborg 90.00% 10.00%
Skive 14.00% 86.00%
Vendsyssel 18.00% 82.00%
Viborg 92.00% 8.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for Championship Round
Esbjerg 100% —
Fredericia 100% —
Fremad Amager — 100%
HB Koge 100% —
Helsingor 100% —
Hobro — 100%
Hvidovre — 100%
Kolding IF — 100%
Silkeborg 100% —
Skive — 100%
Vendsyssel — 100%
Viborg 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2020-09-10 Viborg D 1-161.2 1478 1469 45.45% 25.68% 28.87%+0.38 -0.4 1
2020-09-10 @ Hobro D 1-161.2 1469 1478 28.87% 25.68% 45.45%-0.38 +0.4 1
2020-09-11 Hvidovre W 2-148.6 1398 1390 45.36% 25.70% 28.95%+0.37 +3.4 3
2020-09-11 @ HB Koge L 1-248.6 1390 1398 28.95% 25.70% 45.36%-0.37 -3.5 0
2020-09-11 Silkeborg W 4-256.4 1368 1489 27.96% 25.49% 46.55%-0.82 +7.7 3
2020-09-11 @ Helsingor L 2-456.4 1489 1368 46.55% 25.49% 27.96%+0.82 -7.7 0
2020-09-12 Esbjerg L 0-241.1 1372 1468 31.00% 26.03% 42.98%-0.58 -7.3 0
2020-09-12 @ Skive W 2-041.1 1468 1372 42.98% 26.03% 31.00%+0.58 +7.3 3
2020-09-12 Vendsyssel W 6-038.9 1418 1404 46.16% 25.56% 28.28%+0.42 +18.8 3
2020-09-12 @ Fremad Amager L 0-638.9 1404 1418 28.28% 25.56% 46.16%-0.42 -18.8 0
2020-09-13 Kolding IF W 2-149.5 1420 1410 45.69% 25.64% 28.67%+0.39 +3.4 3
2020-09-13 @ Fredericia L 1-249.5 1410 1420 28.67% 25.64% 45.69%-0.39 -3.4 0
2020-09-15 Helsingor L 0-341.7 1387 1376 45.86% 25.61% 28.53%+0.40 -14.3 0
2020-09-15 @ Hvidovre W 3-041.7 1376 1387 28.53% 25.61% 45.86%-0.40 +14.3 6
2020-09-15 Hobro W 3-043.1 1385 1477 31.50% 26.09% 42.41%-0.54 +13.5 3
2020-09-15 @ Vendsyssel L 0-343.1 1477 1385 42.41% 26.09% 31.50%+0.54 -13.5 1
2020-09-16 HB Koge W 1-042.2 1476 1401 54.29% 23.51% 22.20%+0.98 +2.9 6
2020-09-16 @ Esbjerg L 0-142.2 1401 1476 22.20% 23.51% 54.29%-0.98 -2.9 3
2020-09-16 Kolding IF W 4-249.5 1470 1406 52.89% 23.95% 23.16%+0.88 +4.4 4
2020-09-16 @ Viborg L 2-449.5 1406 1470 23.16% 23.95% 52.89%-0.88 -4.4 0
2020-09-16 Skive W 2-036.2 1482 1365 59.59% 21.56% 18.84%+1.37 +4.6 3
2020-09-16 @ Silkeborg L 0-236.2 1365 1482 18.84% 21.56% 59.59%-1.37 -4.6 0
2020-09-17 Fremad Amager W 3-148.2 1423 1436 42.41% 26.09% 31.50%+0.18 +6.4 6
2020-09-17 @ Fredericia L 1-348.2 1436 1423 31.50% 26.09% 42.41%-0.18 -6.4 3
2020-09-18 Vendsyssel W 3-037.8 1390 1399 43.03% 26.02% 30.95%+0.22 +10.6 9
2020-09-18 @ Helsingor L 0-337.8 1399 1390 30.95% 26.02% 43.03%-0.22 -10.6 3
2020-09-19 Esbjerg W 3-150.8 1486 1478 45.36% 25.70% 28.94%+0.37 +6.0 6
2020-09-19 @ Silkeborg L 1-350.8 1478 1486 28.94% 25.70% 45.36%-0.37 -6.0 6
2020-09-19 HB Koge L 2-454.5 1402 1398 44.75% 25.79% 29.46%+0.33 -7.5 0
2020-09-19 @ Kolding IF W 4-254.5 1398 1402 29.46% 25.79% 44.75%-0.33 +7.5 6
2020-09-19 Skive W 3-142.4 1474 1361 59.22% 21.71% 19.06%+1.34 +4.0 7
2020-09-19 @ Viborg L 1-342.4 1361 1474 19.06% 21.71% 59.22%-1.34 -4.0 0
2020-09-20 Fredericia W 3-255.9 1464 1429 49.00% 24.98% 26.01%+0.62 +3.0 4
2020-09-20 @ Hobro L 2-355.9 1429 1464 26.01% 24.98% 49.00%-0.62 -3.0 6
2020-09-20 Hvidovre W 4-035.2 1430 1372 52.10% 24.18% 23.72%+0.83 +11.0 6
2020-09-20 @ Fremad Amager L 0-435.2 1372 1430 23.72% 24.18% 52.10%-0.83 -11.0 0
2020-09-25 Helsingor W 2-148.2 1472 1400 54.01% 23.60% 22.39%+0.96 +2.7 9
2020-09-25 @ Esbjerg L 1-248.2 1400 1472 22.39% 23.60% 54.01%-0.96 -2.7 9
2020-09-25 Hobro L 1-249.9 1362 1467 29.86% 25.86% 44.28%-0.67 -3.5 0
2020-09-25 @ Hvidovre W 2-149.9 1467 1362 44.28% 25.86% 29.86%+0.67 +3.5 7
2020-09-25 Kolding IF W 1-043.0 1388 1394 43.44% 25.97% 30.59%+0.25 +3.8 6
2020-09-25 @ Vendsyssel L 0-143.0 1394 1388 30.59% 25.97% 43.44%-0.25 -3.8 0
2020-09-26 Fremad Amager L 0-240.5 1357 1441 32.45% 26.19% 41.35%-0.48 -7.6 0
2020-09-26 @ Skive W 2-040.5 1441 1357 41.35% 26.19% 32.45%+0.48 +7.6 9
2020-09-27 Silkeborg W 1-049.3 1426 1492 34.96% 26.35% 38.69%-0.30 +4.6 9
2020-09-27 @ Fredericia L 0-149.3 1492 1426 38.69% 26.35% 34.96%+0.30 -4.6 6
2020-09-27 Viborg L 0-341.4 1406 1478 34.09% 26.31% 39.59%-0.36 -11.4 6
2020-09-27 @ HB Koge W 3-041.4 1478 1406 39.59% 26.31% 34.09%+0.36 +11.4 10
2020-09-29 Esbjerg L 2-361.6 1449 1475 40.52% 26.26% 33.22%+0.05 -4.2 9
2020-09-29 @ Fremad Amager W 3-261.6 1475 1449 33.22% 26.26% 40.52%-0.05 +4.2 12
2020-09-29 Skive W 2-144.9 1470 1349 60.18% 21.32% 18.50%+1.42 +2.2 10
2020-09-29 @ Hobro L 1-244.9 1349 1470 18.50% 21.32% 60.18%-1.42 -2.2 0
2020-09-30 HB Koge L 0-243.9 1398 1395 44.73% 25.79% 29.47%+0.33 -9.7 9
2020-09-30 @ Helsingor W 2-043.9 1395 1398 29.47% 25.79% 44.73%-0.33 +9.7 9
2020-09-30 Silkeborg L 0-439.9 1390 1488 30.84% 26.01% 43.15%-0.59 -13.8 0
2020-09-30 @ Kolding IF W 4-039.9 1488 1390 43.15% 26.01% 30.84%+0.59 +13.8 9
2020-09-30 Vendsyssel W 3-144.4 1489 1392 57.23% 22.48% 20.28%+1.20 +4.3 13
2020-09-30 @ Viborg L 1-344.4 1392 1489 20.28% 22.48% 57.23%-1.20 -4.3 6
2020-10-01 Fredericia L 0-338.8 1358 1431 33.96% 26.30% 39.74%-0.37 -11.4 0
2020-10-01 @ Hvidovre W 3-038.8 1431 1358 39.74% 26.30% 33.96%+0.37 +11.4 12
2020-10-03 Fremad Amager L 0-341.7 1404 1444 38.61% 26.35% 35.04%-0.07 -12.5 9
2020-10-03 @ HB Koge W 3-041.7 1444 1404 35.04% 26.35% 38.61%+0.07 +12.5 12
2020-10-03 Hobro W 4-254.3 1501 1472 48.28% 25.15% 26.58%+0.57 +5.0 12
2020-10-03 @ Silkeborg L 2-454.3 1472 1501 26.58% 25.15% 48.28%-0.57 -5.0 10
2020-10-03 Kolding IF D 1-155.2 1347 1377 40.07% 26.29% 33.65%+0.03 -0.1 1
2020-10-03 @ Skive D 1-155.2 1377 1347 33.65% 26.29% 40.07%-0.03 +0.2 1
2020-10-03 Viborg D 2-268.4 1479 1494 42.29% 26.10% 31.61%+0.17 -0.2 13
2020-10-03 @ Esbjerg D 2-268.4 1494 1479 31.61% 26.10% 42.29%-0.17 +0.2 14
2020-10-04 Helsingor L 1-256.0 1442 1388 51.70% 24.30% 24.01%+0.80 -5.4 12
2020-10-04 @ Fredericia W 2-156.0 1388 1442 24.01% 24.30% 51.70%-0.80 +5.4 12
2020-10-04 Hvidovre L 1-253.6 1388 1347 49.94% 24.76% 25.30%+0.68 -5.3 6
2020-10-04 @ Vendsyssel W 2-153.6 1347 1388 25.30% 24.76% 49.94%-0.68 +5.3 3
2020-10-16 Fremad Amager W 3-149.1 1494 1457 49.39% 24.89% 25.72%+0.64 +5.4 17
2020-10-16 @ Viborg L 1-349.1 1457 1494 25.72% 24.89% 49.39%-0.64 -5.4 12
2020-10-16 Silkeborg L 1-541.0 1352 1506 24.50% 24.48% 51.01%-1.12 -9.4 3
2020-10-16 @ Hvidovre W 5-141.0 1506 1352 51.01% 24.48% 24.50%+1.12 +9.4 15
2020-10-17 Esbjerg D 1-158.2 1377 1479 30.18% 25.91% 43.91%-0.64 +0.3 2
2020-10-17 @ Kolding IF D 1-158.2 1479 1377 43.91% 25.91% 30.18%+0.64 -0.3 14
2020-10-17 HB Koge W 3-144.5 1467 1392 54.49% 23.45% 22.06%+1.00 +4.7 13
2020-10-17 @ Hobro L 1-344.5 1392 1467 22.06% 23.45% 54.49%-1.00 -4.7 9
2020-10-18 Fredericia D 1-157.1 1382 1437 36.53% 26.38% 37.08%-0.20 +0.0 7
2020-10-18 @ Vendsyssel D 1-157.1 1437 1382 37.08% 26.38% 36.53%+0.20 -0.0 13
2020-10-18 Skive W 2-146.1 1393 1347 50.70% 24.57% 24.74%+0.73 +3.0 15
2020-10-18 @ Helsingor L 1-246.1 1347 1393 24.74% 24.57% 50.70%-0.73 -3.0 1
2020-10-20 Hobro W 2-154.4 1377 1472 31.10% 26.04% 42.86%-0.57 +4.7 5
2020-10-20 @ Kolding IF L 1-254.4 1472 1377 42.86% 26.04% 31.10%+0.57 -4.7 13
2020-10-20 Hvidovre L 0-248.2 1479 1342 62.02% 20.54% 17.45%+1.56 -12.5 14
2020-10-20 @ Esbjerg W 2-048.2 1342 1479 17.45% 20.54% 62.02%-1.56 +12.5 6
2020-10-21 Fredericia L 0-146.0 1387 1437 37.18% 26.38% 36.44%-0.16 -4.5 9
2020-10-21 @ HB Koge W 1-046.0 1437 1387 36.44% 26.38% 37.18%+0.16 +4.5 16
2020-10-21 Helsingor W 5-140.5 1451 1396 51.77% 24.28% 23.95%+0.81 +9.2 15
2020-10-21 @ Fremad Amager L 1-540.5 1396 1451 23.95% 24.28% 51.77%-0.81 -9.2 15
2020-10-21 Vendsyssel D 1-155.2 1344 1382 38.77% 26.35% 34.88%-0.06 -0.1 2
2020-10-21 @ Skive D 1-155.2 1382 1344 34.88% 26.35% 38.77%+0.06 +0.1 8
2020-10-22 Viborg L 1-261.0 1516 1499 46.57% 25.49% 27.94%+0.45 -5.0 15
2020-10-22 @ Silkeborg W 2-161.0 1499 1516 27.94% 25.49% 46.57%-0.45 +5.0 20
2020-10-24 Esbjerg L 1-257.5 1467 1466 44.43% 25.84% 29.73%+0.31 -4.8 13
2020-10-24 @ Hobro W 2-157.5 1466 1467 29.73% 25.84% 44.43%-0.31 +4.8 17
2020-10-24 HB Koge L 0-146.7 1383 1383 44.30% 25.86% 29.84%+0.30 -5.1 8
2020-10-24 @ Vendsyssel W 1-046.7 1383 1383 29.84% 25.86% 44.30%-0.30 +5.1 12
2020-10-24 Kolding IF D 0-051.4 1387 1382 45.05% 25.75% 29.20%+0.35 -0.4 16
2020-10-24 @ Helsingor D 0-051.4 1382 1387 29.20% 25.75% 45.05%-0.35 +0.4 6
2020-10-24 Skive W 2-145.0 1441 1344 57.31% 22.46% 20.24%+1.20 +2.5 19
2020-10-24 @ Fredericia L 1-245.0 1344 1441 20.24% 22.46% 57.31%-1.20 -2.5 2
2020-10-25 Silkeborg L 0-345.3 1461 1511 37.17% 26.38% 36.45%-0.16 -12.2 15
2020-10-25 @ Fremad Amager W 3-045.3 1511 1461 36.45% 26.38% 37.17%+0.16 +12.2 18
2020-10-25 Viborg L 1-248.9 1355 1504 25.00% 24.66% 50.34%-1.07 -3.0 6
2020-10-25 @ Hvidovre W 2-148.9 1504 1355 50.34% 24.66% 25.00%+1.07 +3.0 23
2020-10-30 Helsingor W 3-035.5 1507 1387 60.09% 21.36% 18.55%+1.41 +6.5 26
2020-10-30 @ Viborg L 0-335.5 1387 1507 18.55% 21.36% 60.09%-1.41 -6.5 16
2020-10-30 Hvidovre D 1-155.7 1382 1352 48.47% 25.10% 26.42%+0.58 -0.5 7
2020-10-30 @ Kolding IF D 1-155.7 1352 1382 26.42% 25.10% 48.47%-0.58 +0.5 7
2020-10-31 Fredericia W 3-148.2 1471 1444 48.07% 25.19% 26.74%+0.55 +5.6 20
2020-10-31 @ Esbjerg L 1-348.2 1444 1471 26.74% 25.19% 48.07%-0.55 -5.6 19
2020-10-31 Fremad Amager L 0-445.5 1463 1448 46.27% 25.54% 28.19%+0.43 -18.8 13
2020-10-31 @ Hobro W 4-045.5 1448 1463 28.19% 25.54% 46.27%-0.43 +18.8 18
2020-11-01 Skive D 0-051.0 1388 1341 50.66% 24.58% 24.76%+0.73 -0.7 13
2020-11-01 @ HB Koge D 0-051.0 1341 1388 24.76% 24.58% 50.66%-0.73 +0.7 3
2020-11-01 Vendsyssel W 4-140.4 1523 1378 63.07% 20.07% 16.86%+1.64 +5.0 21
2020-11-01 @ Silkeborg L 1-440.4 1378 1523 16.86% 20.07% 63.07%-1.64 -5.0 8
2020-11-05 Hobro L 0-145.5 1380 1444 35.26% 26.36% 38.38%-0.28 -4.3 16
2020-11-05 @ Helsingor W 1-045.5 1444 1380 38.38% 26.36% 35.26%+0.28 +4.3 16
2020-11-06 Viborg D 1-161.2 1438 1514 33.62% 26.28% 40.09%-0.39 +0.2 20
2020-11-06 @ Fredericia D 1-161.2 1514 1438 40.09% 26.28% 33.62%+0.39 -0.1 27
2020-11-07 Hvidovre L 2-356.9 1342 1352 42.79% 26.05% 31.16%+0.20 -4.4 3
2020-11-07 @ Skive W 3-256.9 1352 1342 31.16% 26.05% 42.79%-0.20 +4.4 10
2020-11-07 Kolding IF D 0-054.0 1467 1382 55.75% 23.02% 21.23%+1.09 -1.0 19
2020-11-07 @ Fremad Amager D 0-054.0 1382 1467 21.23% 23.02% 55.75%-1.09 +1.0 8
2020-11-08 Silkeborg L 0-144.9 1387 1528 25.85% 24.94% 49.21%-1.00 -3.3 13
2020-11-08 @ HB Koge W 1-044.9 1528 1387 49.21% 24.94% 25.85%+1.00 +3.3 24
2020-11-20 Fredericia L 1-251.8 1383 1438 36.34% 26.38% 37.28%-0.21 -4.1 8
2020-11-20 @ Kolding IF W 2-151.8 1438 1383 37.28% 26.38% 36.34%+0.21 +4.1 23
2020-11-20 Hobro W 2-151.5 1514 1448 53.17% 23.87% 22.97%+0.90 +2.8 30
2020-11-20 @ Viborg L 1-251.5 1448 1514 22.97% 23.87% 53.17%-0.90 -2.8 16
2020-11-21 Helsingor D 3-372.1 1531 1376 64.21% 19.54% 16.25%+1.73 -0.8 25
2020-11-21 @ Silkeborg D 3-372.1 1376 1531 16.25% 19.54% 64.21%-1.73 +0.8 17
2020-11-21 Vendsyssel W 2-039.0 1357 1373 42.08% 26.12% 31.80%+0.16 +7.5 13
2020-11-21 @ Hvidovre L 0-239.0 1373 1357 31.80% 26.12% 42.08%-0.16 -7.5 8
2020-11-22 HB Koge L 0-151.2 1466 1384 55.38% 23.15% 21.47%+1.06 -6.1 19
2020-11-22 @ Fremad Amager W 1-051.2 1384 1466 21.47% 23.15% 55.38%-1.06 +6.1 16
2020-11-22 Skive W 2-144.1 1477 1337 62.38% 20.38% 17.25%+1.59 +2.1 23
2020-11-22 @ Esbjerg L 1-244.1 1337 1477 17.25% 20.38% 62.38%-1.59 -2.1 3
2020-11-26 Silkeborg W 1-051.8 1516 1530 42.33% 26.10% 31.57%+0.17 +3.9 33
2020-11-26 @ Viborg L 0-151.8 1530 1516 31.57% 26.10% 42.33%-0.17 -3.9 25
2020-11-27 Fremad Amager W 2-153.6 1377 1460 32.57% 26.20% 41.23%-0.47 +4.5 20
2020-11-27 @ Helsingor L 1-253.6 1460 1377 41.23% 26.20% 32.57%+0.47 -4.5 19
2020-11-27 Vendsyssel W 3-253.1 1378 1365 46.15% 25.56% 28.28%+0.42 +3.2 11
2020-11-27 @ Kolding IF L 2-353.1 1365 1378 28.28% 25.56% 46.15%-0.42 -3.2 8
2020-11-28 Esbjerg L 0-242.1 1390 1479 31.82% 26.13% 42.05%-0.52 -7.5 16
2020-11-28 @ HB Koge W 2-042.1 1479 1390 42.05% 26.13% 31.82%+0.52 +7.5 26
2020-11-28 Fredericia L 0-436.9 1335 1443 29.59% 25.82% 44.59%-0.69 -13.3 3
2020-11-28 @ Skive W 4-036.9 1443 1335 44.59% 25.82% 29.59%+0.69 +13.3 26
2020-11-29 Hvidovre L 3-464.3 1445 1364 55.16% 23.22% 21.62%+1.05 -5.3 16
2020-11-29 @ Hobro W 4-364.3 1364 1445 21.62% 23.22% 55.16%-1.05 +5.3 16
2020-12-03 Kolding IF W 2-037.3 1486 1382 58.15% 22.14% 19.72%+1.26 +4.8 29
2020-12-03 @ Esbjerg L 0-237.3 1382 1486 19.72% 22.14% 58.15%-1.26 -4.8 11
2020-12-04 Helsingor W 2-148.4 1382 1381 44.42% 25.84% 29.74%+0.31 +3.5 19
2020-12-04 @ HB Koge L 1-248.4 1381 1382 29.74% 25.84% 44.42%-0.31 -3.5 20
2020-12-04 Hobro D 2-262.5 1322 1440 28.34% 25.57% 46.09%-0.79 +0.3 4
2020-12-04 @ Skive D 2-262.5 1440 1322 46.09% 25.57% 28.34%+0.79 -0.3 17
2020-12-05 Viborg D 1-162.1 1456 1520 35.09% 26.36% 38.55%-0.30 +0.1 20
2020-12-05 @ Fremad Amager D 1-162.1 1520 1456 38.55% 26.36% 35.09%+0.30 -0.1 34
2020-12-06 Hvidovre L 0-150.7 1456 1370 55.85% 22.99% 21.17%+1.10 -6.1 26
2020-12-06 @ Fredericia W 1-050.7 1370 1456 21.17% 22.99% 55.85%-1.10 +6.1 19
2020-12-06 Silkeborg W 2-157.8 1362 1527 23.53% 24.11% 52.36%-1.21 +5.5 11
2020-12-06 @ Vendsyssel L 1-257.8 1527 1362 52.36% 24.11% 23.53%+1.21 -5.5 25
2020-12-09 Esbjerg L 1-249.9 1367 1491 27.69% 25.43% 46.88%-0.84 -3.3 11
2020-12-09 @ Vendsyssel W 2-149.9 1491 1367 46.88% 25.43% 27.69%+0.84 +3.3 32
2020-12-11 Fremad Amager D 1-157.4 1377 1456 33.18% 26.25% 40.57%-0.43 +0.2 12
2020-12-11 @ Kolding IF D 1-157.4 1456 1377 40.57% 26.25% 33.18%+0.43 -0.2 21
2020-12-11 HB Koge D 1-161.3 1520 1386 61.79% 20.64% 17.57%+1.54 -1.1 35
2020-12-11 @ Viborg D 1-161.3 1386 1520 17.57% 20.64% 61.79%-1.54 +1.1 20
2020-12-12 Fredericia W 2-042.1 1521 1450 53.90% 23.64% 22.46%+0.96 +5.5 28
2020-12-12 @ Silkeborg L 0-242.1 1450 1521 22.46% 23.64% 53.90%-0.96 -5.5 26
2020-12-12 Skive L 1-253.5 1376 1322 51.57% 24.33% 24.10%+0.79 -5.4 19
2020-12-12 @ Hvidovre W 2-153.5 1322 1376 24.10% 24.33% 51.57%-0.79 +5.4 7
2020-12-13 Esbjerg L 1-250.6 1378 1495 28.49% 25.61% 45.90%-0.77 -3.4 20
2020-12-13 @ Helsingor W 2-150.6 1495 1378 45.90% 25.61% 28.49%+0.77 +3.4 35
2020-12-13 Vendsyssel W 3-143.1 1440 1364 54.48% 23.45% 22.07%+1.00 +4.7 20
2020-12-13 @ Hobro L 1-343.1 1364 1440 22.07% 23.45% 54.48%-1.00 -4.7 11
2020-12-18 Kolding IF D 1-157.9 1444 1377 53.39% 23.80% 22.81%+0.92 -0.8 21
2020-12-18 @ Hobro D 1-157.9 1377 1444 22.81% 23.80% 53.39%-0.92 +0.8 13
2020-12-18 Silkeborg L 0-435.1 1328 1527 20.57% 22.65% 56.77%-1.53 -9.5 7
2020-12-18 @ Skive W 4-035.1 1527 1328 56.77% 22.65% 20.57%+1.53 +9.5 31
2020-12-18 Viborg L 0-144.0 1374 1519 25.46% 24.81% 49.73%-1.03 -3.3 20
2020-12-18 @ Helsingor W 1-044.0 1519 1374 49.73% 24.81% 25.46%+1.03 +3.3 38
2020-12-19 HB Koge D 1-158.0 1444 1387 52.11% 24.18% 23.71%+0.83 -0.7 27
2020-12-19 @ Fredericia D 1-158.0 1387 1444 23.71% 24.18% 52.11%-0.83 +0.7 21
2020-12-20 Esbjerg L 0-144.0 1370 1498 27.27% 25.33% 47.40%-0.87 -3.5 19
2020-12-20 @ Hvidovre W 1-044.0 1498 1370 47.40% 25.33% 27.27%+0.87 +3.5 38
2020-12-20 Fremad Amager W 2-044.0 1359 1456 30.94% 26.02% 43.03%-0.59 +9.4 14
2020-12-20 @ Vendsyssel L 0-244.0 1456 1359 43.03% 26.02% 30.94%+0.59 -9.4 21
2021-02-12 Fredericia W 4-039.4 1522 1444 54.88% 23.32% 21.80%+1.03 +10.1 41
2021-02-12 @ Viborg L 0-439.4 1444 1522 21.80% 23.32% 54.88%-1.03 -10.1 27
2021-02-12 Helsingor L 0-243.2 1378 1371 45.23% 25.72% 29.05%+0.36 -9.8 13
2021-02-12 @ Kolding IF W 2-043.2 1371 1378 29.05% 25.72% 45.23%-0.36 +9.8 23
2021-02-13 Hobro D 1-157.3 1388 1444 36.31% 26.38% 37.31%-0.22 +0.0 22
2021-02-13 @ HB Koge D 1-157.3 1444 1388 37.31% 26.38% 36.31%+0.22 -0.0 22
2021-02-13 Vendsyssel D 0-055.3 1501 1369 61.56% 20.74% 17.71%+1.52 -1.2 39
2021-02-13 @ Esbjerg D 0-055.3 1369 1501 17.71% 20.74% 61.56%-1.52 +1.2 15
2021-02-14 Hvidovre W 2-036.1 1536 1367 65.82% 18.78% 15.40%+1.86 +3.6 34
2021-02-14 @ Silkeborg L 0-236.1 1367 1536 15.40% 18.78% 65.82%-1.86 -3.6 19
2021-02-14 Skive W 4-031.7 1446 1318 61.01% 20.97% 18.02%+1.48 +8.3 24
2021-02-14 @ Fremad Amager L 0-431.7 1318 1446 18.02% 20.97% 61.01%-1.48 -8.3 7
2021-02-18 Kolding IF W 3-034.2 1540 1368 66.08% 18.66% 15.26%+1.88 +5.2 37
2021-02-18 @ Silkeborg L 0-334.2 1368 1540 15.26% 18.66% 66.08%-1.88 -5.2 13
2021-02-19 HB Koge L 1-345.5 1310 1388 33.33% 26.26% 40.41%-0.41 -6.7 7
2021-02-19 @ Skive W 3-145.5 1388 1310 40.41% 26.26% 33.33%+0.41 +6.7 25
2021-02-20 Fremad Amager L 1-250.2 1363 1454 31.56% 26.10% 42.34%-0.54 -3.7 19
2021-02-20 @ Hvidovre W 2-150.2 1454 1363 42.34% 26.10% 31.56%+0.54 +3.7 27
2021-02-20 Helsingor L 0-150.0 1444 1381 52.80% 23.98% 23.22%+0.88 -5.8 22
2021-02-20 @ Hobro W 1-050.0 1381 1444 23.22% 23.98% 52.80%-0.88 +5.8 26
2021-02-21 Esbjerg L 0-148.7 1434 1500 34.83% 26.35% 38.82%-0.31 -4.2 27
2021-02-21 @ Fredericia W 1-048.7 1500 1434 38.82% 26.35% 34.83%+0.31 +4.2 42
2021-02-21 Viborg L 0-143.6 1370 1533 23.72% 24.18% 52.10%-1.20 -3.1 15
2021-02-21 @ Vendsyssel W 1-043.6 1533 1370 52.10% 24.18% 23.72%+1.20 +3.1 44
2021-02-25 Silkeborg L 1-260.1 1504 1545 38.55% 26.36% 35.10%-0.07 -4.3 42
2021-02-25 @ Esbjerg W 2-160.1 1545 1504 35.10% 26.36% 38.55%+0.07 +4.3 40
2021-02-26 Fredericia W 1-045.3 1387 1429 38.24% 26.37% 35.40%-0.09 +4.3 29
2021-02-26 @ Helsingor L 0-145.3 1429 1387 35.40% 26.37% 38.24%+0.09 -4.3 27
2021-02-26 Hvidovre W 1-039.0 1536 1359 66.60% 18.40% 15.00%+1.92 +1.9 47
2021-02-26 @ Viborg L 0-139.0 1359 1536 15.00% 18.40% 66.60%-1.92 -1.9 19
2021-02-27 Skive L 2-454.2 1363 1303 52.40% 24.09% 23.50%+0.85 -8.5 13
2021-02-27 @ Kolding IF W 4-254.2 1303 1363 23.50% 24.09% 52.40%-0.85 +8.5 10
2021-02-28 Hobro D 2-265.9 1458 1438 47.12% 25.38% 27.50%+0.49 -0.4 28
2021-02-28 @ Fremad Amager D 2-265.9 1438 1458 27.50% 25.38% 47.12%-0.49 +0.3 23
2021-02-28 Vendsyssel W 3-035.8 1394 1367 48.07% 25.19% 26.74%+0.55 +9.4 28
2021-02-28 @ HB Koge L 0-335.8 1367 1394 26.74% 25.19% 48.07%-0.55 -9.4 15
2021-03-05 Hobro D 1-158.3 1425 1438 42.45% 26.09% 31.46%+0.18 -0.2 28
2021-03-05 @ Fredericia D 1-158.3 1438 1425 31.46% 26.09% 42.45%-0.18 +0.3 24
2021-03-05 Viborg L 0-334.2 1312 1538 18.54% 21.35% 60.12%-1.78 -6.5 10
2021-03-05 @ Skive W 3-034.2 1538 1312 60.12% 21.35% 18.54%+1.78 +6.5 50
2021-03-06 Fremad Amager W 2-042.7 1500 1458 50.08% 24.72% 25.19%+0.69 +6.1 45
2021-03-06 @ Esbjerg L 0-242.7 1458 1500 25.19% 24.72% 50.08%-0.69 -6.1 28
2021-03-06 Kolding IF W 2-038.0 1358 1354 44.74% 25.79% 29.47%+0.33 +7.0 22
2021-03-06 @ Hvidovre L 0-238.0 1354 1358 29.47% 25.79% 44.74%-0.33 -7.0 13
2021-03-07 HB Koge W 2-038.6 1549 1404 63.09% 20.06% 16.85%+1.64 +4.0 43
2021-03-07 @ Silkeborg L 0-238.6 1404 1549 16.85% 20.06% 63.09%-1.64 -4.0 28
2021-03-07 Helsingor L 1-251.2 1358 1391 39.56% 26.31% 34.12%-0.01 -4.4 15
2021-03-07 @ Vendsyssel W 2-151.2 1391 1358 34.12% 26.31% 39.56%+0.01 +4.4 32
2021-03-12 Hvidovre W 2-037.6 1395 1365 48.53% 25.09% 26.38%+0.58 +6.4 35
2021-03-12 @ Helsingor L 0-237.6 1365 1395 26.38% 25.09% 48.53%-0.58 -6.4 22
2021-03-13 Esbjerg W 2-046.3 1544 1506 49.49% 24.87% 25.64%+0.65 +6.2 53
2021-03-13 @ Viborg L 0-246.3 1506 1544 25.64% 24.87% 49.49%-0.65 -6.2 45
2021-03-13 Kolding IF D 1-156.2 1400 1347 51.41% 24.38% 24.21%+0.78 -0.7 29
2021-03-13 @ HB Koge D 1-156.2 1347 1400 24.21% 24.38% 51.41%-0.78 +0.7 14
2021-03-13 Silkeborg L 0-343.3 1438 1553 28.71% 25.65% 45.64%-0.76 -10.0 24
2021-03-13 @ Hobro W 3-043.3 1553 1438 45.64% 25.65% 28.71%+0.76 +10.0 46
2021-03-14 Fredericia L 1-256.5 1452 1425 48.01% 25.20% 26.78%+0.55 -5.1 28
2021-03-14 @ Fremad Amager W 2-156.5 1425 1452 26.78% 25.20% 48.01%-0.55 +5.1 31
2021-03-14 Skive L 0-146.8 1353 1305 50.86% 24.52% 24.62%+0.74 -5.7 15
2021-03-14 @ Vendsyssel W 1-046.8 1305 1353 24.62% 24.52% 50.86%-0.74 +5.7 13
2021-03-19 Fremad Amager W 2-041.8 1563 1447 59.62% 21.55% 18.83%+1.37 +4.6 49
2021-03-19 @ Silkeborg L 0-241.8 1447 1563 18.83% 21.55% 59.62%-1.37 -4.6 28
2021-03-19 HB Koge D 0-051.0 1358 1399 38.51% 26.36% 35.13%-0.07 -0.1 23
2021-03-19 @ Hvidovre D 0-051.0 1399 1358 35.13% 26.36% 38.51%+0.07 +0.1 30
2021-03-19 Helsingor D 0-050.3 1311 1402 31.61% 26.10% 42.29%-0.54 +0.3 14
2021-03-19 @ Skive D 0-050.3 1402 1311 42.29% 26.10% 31.61%+0.54 -0.3 36
2021-03-19 Hobro W 1-043.9 1500 1428 53.95% 23.62% 22.43%+0.96 +2.9 48
2021-03-19 @ Esbjerg L 0-143.9 1428 1500 22.43% 23.62% 53.95%-0.96 -2.9 24
2021-03-19 Vendsyssel D 1-157.1 1430 1347 55.34% 23.16% 21.50%+1.06 -0.8 32
2021-03-19 @ Fredericia D 1-157.1 1347 1430 21.50% 23.16% 55.34%-1.06 +0.8 16
2021-03-19 Viborg L 0-142.0 1348 1550 20.31% 22.50% 57.19%-1.56 -2.6 14
2021-03-19 @ Kolding IF W 1-042.0 1550 1348 57.19% 22.50% 20.31%+1.56 +2.6 56

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2021-04-03 Vendsyssel W 3-033.7 1442 1348 56.77% 22.65% 20.57%+1.16 +7.3 3
2021-04-03 @ Fremad Amager L 0-333.7 1348 1442 20.57% 22.65% 56.77%-1.16 -7.3 0
2021-04-04 Hobro W 1-046.6 1311 1426 28.76% 25.66% 45.58%-0.75 +5.2 3
2021-04-04 @ Skive L 0-146.6 1426 1311 45.58% 25.66% 28.76%+0.75 -5.2 0
2021-04-04 Hvidovre D 1-155.0 1345 1358 42.51% 26.08% 31.41%+0.18 -0.3 1
2021-04-04 @ Kolding IF D 1-155.0 1358 1345 31.41% 26.08% 42.51%-0.18 +0.3 1
2021-04-04 Viborg D 1-161.7 1399 1553 24.56% 24.50% 50.94%-1.12 +0.6 1
2021-04-04 @ HB Koge D 1-161.7 1553 1399 50.94% 24.50% 24.56%+1.12 -0.7 1
2021-04-05 Esbjerg L 1-351.3 1429 1503 33.84% 26.30% 39.86%-0.38 -6.8 0
2021-04-05 @ Fredericia W 3-151.3 1503 1429 39.86% 26.30% 33.84%+0.38 +6.8 3
2021-04-05 Helsingor W 2-038.5 1568 1401 65.49% 18.94% 15.57%+1.83 +3.7 3
2021-04-05 @ Silkeborg L 0-238.5 1401 1568 15.57% 18.94% 65.49%-1.83 -3.7 0
2021-04-09 HB Koge W 3-146.1 1398 1400 44.03% 25.90% 30.08%+0.28 +6.2 3
2021-04-09 @ Helsingor L 1-346.1 1400 1398 30.08% 25.90% 44.03%-0.28 -6.2 1
2021-04-09 Kolding IF L 1-255.1 1420 1345 54.41% 23.47% 22.12%+0.99 -5.6 0
2021-04-09 @ Hobro W 2-155.1 1345 1420 22.12% 23.47% 54.41%-0.99 +5.6 4
2021-04-10 Fredericia W 4-143.5 1552 1422 61.24% 20.87% 17.89%+1.50 +5.3 4
2021-04-10 @ Viborg L 1-443.5 1422 1552 17.89% 20.87% 61.24%-1.50 -5.3 0
2021-04-10 Fremad Amager W 3-041.7 1358 1449 31.61% 26.10% 42.29%-0.54 +13.4 4
2021-04-10 @ Hvidovre L 0-341.7 1449 1358 42.29% 26.10% 31.61%+0.54 -13.4 3
2021-04-10 Silkeborg D 1-165.9 1510 1571 35.50% 26.37% 38.13%-0.27 +0.1 4
2021-04-10 @ Esbjerg D 1-165.9 1571 1510 38.13% 26.37% 35.50%+0.27 -0.1 4
2021-04-11 Skive D 1-154.7 1341 1316 47.72% 25.26% 27.02%+0.53 -0.5 1
2021-04-11 @ Vendsyssel D 1-154.7 1316 1341 27.02% 25.26% 47.72%-0.53 +0.5 4
2021-04-16 Esbjerg W 4-044.4 1558 1510 50.82% 24.53% 24.64%+0.74 +11.4 7
2021-04-16 @ Viborg L 0-444.4 1510 1558 24.64% 24.53% 50.82%-0.74 -11.4 4
2021-04-16 Kolding IF W 2-148.5 1317 1351 39.47% 26.32% 34.21%-0.01 +4.0 7
2021-04-16 @ Skive L 1-248.5 1351 1317 34.21% 26.32% 39.47%+0.01 -4.0 4
2021-04-17 Hobro D 0-053.4 1436 1415 47.23% 25.36% 27.41%+0.50 -0.5 4
2021-04-17 @ Fremad Amager D 0-053.4 1415 1436 27.41% 25.36% 47.23%-0.50 +0.5 1
2021-04-17 Hvidovre W 1-042.9 1341 1372 39.87% 26.30% 33.84%+0.01 +4.2 4
2021-04-17 @ Vendsyssel L 0-142.9 1372 1341 33.84% 26.30% 39.87%-0.01 -4.1 4
2021-04-17 Silkeborg L 0-339.8 1393 1571 22.33% 23.58% 54.10%-1.34 -7.9 1
2021-04-17 @ HB Koge W 3-039.8 1571 1393 54.10% 23.58% 22.33%+1.34 +7.9 7
2021-04-18 Helsingor W 2-039.6 1417 1404 46.10% 25.57% 28.33%+0.42 +6.8 3
2021-04-18 @ Fredericia L 0-239.6 1404 1417 28.33% 25.57% 46.10%-0.42 -6.8 3
2021-04-23 Esbjerg W 1-049.9 1397 1498 30.33% 25.93% 43.73%-0.63 +5.0 6
2021-04-23 @ Helsingor L 0-149.9 1498 1397 43.73% 25.93% 30.33%+0.63 -5.0 4
2021-04-23 Vendsyssel D 1-154.9 1347 1345 44.59% 25.82% 29.59%+0.32 -0.4 5
2021-04-23 @ Kolding IF D 1-154.9 1345 1347 29.59% 25.82% 44.59%-0.32 +0.4 5
2021-04-23 Viborg W 2-050.6 1579 1569 45.74% 25.63% 28.62%+0.40 +6.8 10
2021-04-23 @ Silkeborg L 0-250.6 1569 1579 28.62% 25.63% 45.74%-0.40 -6.8 7
2021-04-24 Fredericia L 1-252.3 1386 1424 38.88% 26.34% 34.77%-0.05 -4.3 1
2021-04-24 @ HB Koge W 2-152.3 1424 1386 34.77% 26.34% 38.88%+0.05 +4.3 6
2021-04-24 Hvidovre D 1-156.8 1415 1368 50.79% 24.54% 24.67%+0.74 -0.6 2
2021-04-24 @ Hobro D 1-156.8 1368 1415 24.67% 24.54% 50.79%-0.74 +0.6 5
2021-04-25 Skive W 2-034.3 1435 1321 59.38% 21.65% 18.97%+1.36 +4.6 7
2021-04-25 @ Fremad Amager L 0-234.3 1321 1435 18.97% 21.65% 59.38%-1.36 -4.6 7
2021-04-29 HB Koge W 1-040.7 1493 1381 59.06% 21.78% 19.16%+1.33 +2.5 7
2021-04-29 @ Esbjerg L 0-140.7 1381 1493 19.16% 21.78% 59.06%-1.33 -2.5 1
2021-04-30 Fremad Amager W 2-152.8 1346 1440 31.29% 26.07% 42.64%-0.56 +4.7 8
2021-04-30 @ Kolding IF L 1-252.8 1440 1346 42.64% 26.07% 31.29%+0.56 -4.7 7
2021-04-30 Helsingor L 0-351.2 1562 1402 64.75% 19.29% 15.96%+1.77 -18.7 7
2021-04-30 @ Viborg W 3-051.2 1402 1562 15.96% 19.29% 64.75%-1.77 +18.7 9
2021-05-01 Skive W 3-033.6 1368 1316 51.41% 24.38% 24.21%+0.78 +8.6 8
2021-05-01 @ Hvidovre L 0-333.6 1316 1368 24.21% 24.38% 51.41%-0.78 -8.6 7
2021-05-02 Hobro D 1-155.8 1345 1415 34.43% 26.33% 39.24%-0.34 +0.1 6
2021-05-02 @ Vendsyssel D 1-155.8 1415 1345 39.24% 26.33% 34.43%+0.34 -0.1 3
2021-05-02 Silkeborg L 0-147.8 1428 1586 24.15% 24.35% 51.50%-1.15 -3.1 6
2021-05-02 @ Fredericia W 1-047.8 1586 1428 51.50% 24.35% 24.15%+1.15 +3.1 13
2021-05-05 Kolding IF L 0-243.5 1377 1351 47.85% 25.24% 26.92%+0.54 -10.2 8
2021-05-05 @ Hvidovre W 2-043.5 1351 1377 26.92% 25.24% 47.85%-0.54 +10.2 11
2021-05-06 Esbjerg W 2-045.4 1589 1496 56.75% 22.66% 20.59%+1.16 +5.0 16
2021-05-06 @ Silkeborg L 0-245.4 1496 1589 20.59% 22.66% 56.75%-1.16 -5.0 7
2021-05-06 Fremad Amager W 2-041.8 1414 1435 41.35% 26.19% 32.46%+0.11 +7.6 6
2021-05-06 @ Hobro L 0-241.8 1435 1414 32.46% 26.19% 41.35%-0.11 -7.6 7
2021-05-06 Vendsyssel W 2-148.5 1308 1345 38.96% 26.34% 34.70%-0.05 +4.0 10
2021-05-06 @ Skive L 1-248.5 1345 1308 34.70% 26.34% 38.96%+0.05 -4.0 6
2021-05-07 HB Koge W 3-035.9 1425 1379 50.61% 24.59% 24.80%+0.73 +8.8 9
2021-05-07 @ Fredericia L 0-335.9 1379 1425 24.80% 24.59% 50.61%-0.73 -8.8 1
2021-05-07 Viborg L 0-342.0 1421 1543 27.85% 25.47% 46.68%-0.83 -9.7 9
2021-05-07 @ Helsingor W 3-042.0 1543 1421 46.68% 25.47% 27.85%+0.83 +9.7 10
2021-05-10 Fredericia L 1-259.0 1491 1434 52.05% 24.20% 23.75%+0.83 -5.4 7
2021-05-10 @ Esbjerg W 2-159.0 1434 1491 23.75% 24.20% 52.05%-0.83 +5.4 12
2021-05-11 Helsingor L 0-540.5 1370 1411 38.45% 26.36% 35.19%-0.08 -20.1 1
2021-05-11 @ HB Koge W 5-040.5 1411 1370 35.19% 26.36% 38.45%+0.08 +20.1 12
2021-05-11 Kolding IF W 3-036.8 1341 1361 41.45% 26.18% 32.37%+0.12 +11.0 9
2021-05-11 @ Vendsyssel L 0-336.8 1361 1341 32.37% 26.18% 41.45%-0.12 -11.0 11
2021-05-11 Skive W 3-032.1 1422 1312 58.87% 21.85% 19.28%+1.32 +6.8 9
2021-05-11 @ Hobro L 0-332.1 1312 1422 19.28% 21.85% 58.87%-1.32 -6.8 10
2021-05-12 Hvidovre L 0-149.3 1428 1367 52.57% 24.04% 23.38%+0.86 -5.8 7
2021-05-12 @ Fremad Amager W 1-049.3 1367 1428 23.38% 24.04% 52.57%-0.86 +5.8 11
2021-05-12 Silkeborg D 3-378.4 1553 1594 38.44% 26.36% 35.20%-0.08 -0.0 11
2021-05-12 @ Viborg D 3-378.4 1594 1553 35.20% 26.36% 38.44%+0.08 +0.0 17
2021-05-14 Hobro D 0-051.4 1350 1429 33.23% 26.26% 40.52%-0.42 +0.2 12
2021-05-14 @ Kolding IF D 0-051.4 1429 1350 40.52% 26.26% 33.23%+0.42 -0.2 10
2021-05-15 HB Koge W 4-138.7 1594 1350 73.81% 14.69% 11.50%+2.55 +3.1 20
2021-05-15 @ Silkeborg L 1-438.7 1350 1594 11.50% 14.69% 73.81%-2.55 -3.1 1
2021-05-15 Vendsyssel D 2-261.9 1373 1352 47.11% 25.39% 27.50%+0.49 -0.4 12
2021-05-15 @ Hvidovre D 2-261.9 1352 1373 27.50% 25.39% 47.11%-0.49 +0.3 10
2021-05-15 Viborg L 0-446.9 1485 1553 34.69% 26.34% 38.97%-0.32 -15.1 7
2021-05-15 @ Esbjerg W 4-046.9 1553 1485 38.97% 26.34% 34.69%+0.32 +15.1 14
2021-05-16 Fredericia W 2-151.4 1431 1439 43.19% 26.00% 30.80%+0.23 +3.6 15
2021-05-16 @ Helsingor L 1-251.4 1439 1431 30.80% 26.00% 43.19%-0.23 -3.6 12
2021-05-16 Fremad Amager W 1-046.5 1305 1422 28.44% 25.60% 45.96%-0.78 +5.2 13
2021-05-16 @ Skive L 0-146.5 1422 1305 45.96% 25.60% 28.44%+0.78 -5.2 7
2021-05-21 Esbjerg L 1-248.8 1347 1470 27.74% 25.44% 46.82%-0.84 -3.3 1
2021-05-21 @ HB Koge W 2-148.8 1470 1347 46.82% 25.44% 27.74%+0.84 +3.3 10
2021-05-21 Silkeborg D 3-375.2 1435 1598 23.73% 24.19% 52.08%-1.20 +0.4 16
2021-05-21 @ Helsingor D 3-375.2 1598 1435 52.08% 24.19% 23.73%+1.20 -0.4 21
2021-05-21 Viborg L 0-343.0 1436 1568 26.73% 25.19% 48.08%-0.92 -9.4 12
2021-05-21 @ Fredericia W 3-043.0 1568 1436 48.08% 25.19% 26.73%+0.92 +9.4 17
2021-05-22 Hvidovre D 2-261.0 1310 1372 35.44% 26.37% 38.19%-0.27 +0.0 14
2021-05-22 @ Skive D 2-261.0 1372 1310 38.19% 26.37% 35.44%+0.27 -0.0 13
2021-05-22 Kolding IF L 0-148.9 1417 1351 53.24% 23.84% 22.92%+0.91 -5.9 7
2021-05-22 @ Fremad Amager W 1-048.9 1351 1417 22.92% 23.84% 53.24%-0.91 +5.9 15
2021-05-23 Vendsyssel L 0-245.9 1429 1352 54.54% 23.43% 22.03%+1.00 -11.3 10
2021-05-23 @ Hobro W 2-045.9 1352 1429 22.03% 23.43% 54.54%-1.00 +11.3 13
2021-05-26 Fredericia W 2-149.9 1597 1426 66.00% 18.69% 15.30%+1.87 +1.8 24
2021-05-26 @ Silkeborg L 1-249.9 1426 1597 15.30% 18.69% 66.00%-1.87 -1.8 12
2021-05-26 HB Koge W 4-032.4 1578 1343 72.77% 15.25% 11.99%+2.46 +5.1 20
2021-05-26 @ Viborg L 0-432.4 1343 1578 11.99% 15.25% 72.77%-2.46 -5.1 1
2021-05-26 Helsingor D 2-266.5 1474 1435 49.53% 24.86% 25.61%+0.65 -0.4 11
2021-05-26 @ Esbjerg D 2-266.5 1435 1474 25.61% 24.86% 49.53%-0.65 +0.4 17
2021-05-27 Fremad Amager W 2-150.7 1364 1411 37.61% 26.38% 36.01%-0.13 +4.1 16
2021-05-27 @ Vendsyssel L 1-250.7 1411 1364 36.01% 26.38% 37.61%+0.13 -4.1 7
2021-05-27 Hobro W 4-039.2 1372 1417 37.86% 26.37% 35.76%-0.12 +15.5 16
2021-05-27 @ Hvidovre L 0-439.2 1417 1372 35.76% 26.37% 37.86%+0.12 -15.5 10
2021-05-27 Skive W 2-035.6 1356 1310 50.64% 24.58% 24.78%+0.73 +6.0 18
2021-05-27 @ Kolding IF L 0-235.6 1310 1356 24.78% 24.58% 50.64%-0.73 -6.0 14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2021-04-30 15.96% Helsingor 1402 3 @ Viborg 1562 0
2 2020-10-20 17.45% Hvidovre 1342 2 @ Esbjerg 1479 0
3 2020-12-06 21.17% Hvidovre 1370 1 @ Fredericia 1456 0
4 2020-11-22 21.47% HB Koge 1384 1 @ Fremad Amager 1466 0
5 2020-11-29 21.62% Hvidovre 1364 4 @ Hobro 1445 3
6 2021-05-23 22.03% Vendsyssel 1352 2 @ Hobro 1429 0
7 2021-04-09 22.12% Kolding IF 1345 2 @ Hobro 1420 1
8 2021-05-22 22.92% Kolding IF 1351 1 @ Fremad Amager 1417 0
9 2021-02-20 23.22% Helsingor 1381 1 @ Hobro 1444 0
10 2021-05-12 23.38% Hvidovre 1367 1 @ Fremad Amager 1428 0
11 2021-02-27 23.50% Skive 1303 4 @ Kolding IF 1363 2
12 2020-12-06 23.53% @ Vendsyssel 1362 2 Silkeborg 1527 1
13 2021-05-10 23.75% Fredericia 1434 2 @ Esbjerg 1491 1
14 2020-10-04 24.01% Helsingor 1388 2 @ Fredericia 1442 1
15 2020-12-12 24.10% Skive 1322 2 @ Hvidovre 1376 1
16 2021-03-14 24.62% Skive 1305 1 @ Vendsyssel 1353 0
17 2020-10-04 25.30% Hvidovre 1347 2 @ Vendsyssel 1388 1
18 2021-03-14 26.78% Fredericia 1425 2 @ Fremad Amager 1452 1
19 2021-05-05 26.92% Kolding IF 1351 2 @ Hvidovre 1377 0
20 2020-10-22 27.94% Viborg 1499 2 @ Silkeborg 1516 1
21 2020-09-11 27.96% @ Helsingor 1368 4 Silkeborg 1489 2
22 2020-10-31 28.19% Fremad Amager 1448 4 @ Hobro 1463 0
23 2021-05-16 28.44% @ Skive 1305 1 Fremad Amager 1422 0
24 2020-09-15 28.53% Helsingor 1376 3 @ Hvidovre 1387 0
25 2021-04-04 28.76% @ Skive 1311 1 Hobro 1426 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-05-11 20.14 Helsingor 5 1411 35.19% @ HB Koge 0 1370 38.45% 26.36%
2 2020-10-31 18.82 Fremad Amager 4 1448 28.19% @ Hobro 0 1463 46.27% 25.54%
3 2020-09-12 18.81 @ Fremad Amager 6 1418 46.16% Vendsyssel 0 1404 28.28% 25.56%
4 2021-04-30 18.71 Helsingor 3 1402 15.96% @ Viborg 0 1562 64.75% 19.29%
5 2021-05-27 15.48 @ Hvidovre 4 1372 37.86% Hobro 0 1417 35.76% 26.37%
6 2021-05-15 15.13 Viborg 4 1553 38.97% @ Esbjerg 0 1485 34.69% 26.34%
7 2020-09-15 14.31 Helsingor 3 1376 28.53% @ Hvidovre 0 1387 45.86% 25.61%
8 2020-09-30 13.81 Silkeborg 4 1488 43.15% @ Kolding IF 0 1390 30.84% 26.01%
9 2020-09-15 13.46 @ Vendsyssel 3 1385 31.50% Hobro 0 1477 42.41% 26.09%
10 2021-04-10 13.44 @ Hvidovre 3 1358 31.61% Fremad Amager 0 1449 42.29% 26.10%
11 2020-11-28 13.35 Fredericia 4 1443 44.59% @ Skive 0 1335 29.59% 25.82%
12 2020-10-03 12.55 Fremad Amager 3 1444 35.04% @ HB Koge 0 1404 38.61% 26.35%
13 2020-10-20 12.48 Hvidovre 2 1342 17.45% @ Esbjerg 0 1479 62.02% 20.54%
14 2020-10-25 12.19 Silkeborg 3 1511 36.45% @ Fremad Amager 0 1461 37.17% 26.38%
15 2020-09-27 11.44 Viborg 3 1478 39.59% @ HB Koge 0 1406 34.09% 26.31%
16 2020-10-01 11.40 Fredericia 3 1431 39.74% @ Hvidovre 0 1358 33.96% 26.30%
17 2021-04-16 11.37 @ Viborg 4 1558 50.82% Esbjerg 0 1510 24.64% 24.53%
18 2021-05-23 11.29 Vendsyssel 2 1352 22.03% @ Hobro 0 1429 54.54% 23.43%
19 2021-05-11 10.99 @ Vendsyssel 3 1341 41.45% Kolding IF 0 1361 32.37% 26.18%
20 2020-09-20 10.97 @ Fremad Amager 4 1430 52.10% Hvidovre 0 1372 23.72% 24.18%
21 2020-09-18 10.60 @ Helsingor 3 1390 43.03% Vendsyssel 0 1399 30.95% 26.02%
22 2021-05-05 10.19 Kolding IF 2 1351 26.92% @ Hvidovre 0 1377 47.85% 25.24%
23 2021-02-12 10.11 @ Viborg 4 1522 54.88% Fredericia 0 1444 21.80% 23.32%
24 2021-03-13 9.96 Silkeborg 3 1553 45.64% @ Hobro 0 1438 28.71% 25.65%
25 2021-02-12 9.75 Helsingor 2 1371 29.05% @ Kolding IF 0 1378 45.23% 25.72%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-05-12 78.4 @ Viborg 3 1553 38.44% Silkeborg 3 1594 35.20% 26.36%
2 2021-05-21 75.2 @ Helsingor 3 1435 23.73% Silkeborg 3 1598 52.08% 24.19%
3 2020-11-21 72.1 @ Silkeborg 3 1531 64.21% Helsingor 3 1376 16.25% 19.54%
4 2020-10-03 68.4 @ Esbjerg 2 1479 42.29% Viborg 2 1494 31.61% 26.10%
5 2021-05-26 66.5 @ Esbjerg 2 1474 49.53% Helsingor 2 1435 25.61% 24.86%
6 2021-02-28 65.9 @ Fremad Amager 2 1458 47.12% Hobro 2 1438 27.50% 25.38%
7 2021-04-10 65.9 @ Esbjerg 1 1510 35.50% Silkeborg 1 1571 38.13% 26.37%
8 2020-11-29 64.3 Hvidovre 4 1364 21.62% @ Hobro 3 1445 55.16% 23.22%
9 2020-12-04 62.5 @ Skive 2 1322 28.34% Hobro 2 1440 46.09% 25.57%
10 2020-12-05 62.1 @ Fremad Amager 1 1456 35.09% Viborg 1 1520 38.55% 26.36%
11 2021-05-15 61.9 @ Hvidovre 2 1373 47.11% Vendsyssel 2 1352 27.50% 25.39%
12 2021-04-04 61.7 @ HB Koge 1 1399 24.56% Viborg 1 1553 50.94% 24.50%
13 2020-09-29 61.6 Esbjerg 3 1475 33.22% @ Fremad Amager 2 1449 40.52% 26.26%
14 2020-12-11 61.3 @ Viborg 1 1520 61.79% HB Koge 1 1386 17.57% 20.64%
15 2020-09-10 61.2 @ Hobro 1 1478 45.45% Viborg 1 1469 28.87% 25.68%
16 2020-11-06 61.2 @ Fredericia 1 1438 33.62% Viborg 1 1514 40.09% 26.28%
17 2020-10-22 61.0 Viborg 2 1499 27.94% @ Silkeborg 1 1516 46.57% 25.49%
18 2021-05-22 61.0 @ Skive 2 1310 35.44% Hvidovre 2 1372 38.19% 26.37%
19 2021-02-25 60.1 Silkeborg 2 1545 35.10% @ Esbjerg 1 1504 38.55% 26.36%
20 2021-05-10 59.0 Fredericia 2 1434 23.75% @ Esbjerg 1 1491 52.05% 24.20%
21 2021-03-05 58.3 @ Fredericia 1 1425 42.45% Hobro 1 1438 31.46% 26.09%
22 2020-10-17 58.2 @ Kolding IF 1 1377 30.18% Esbjerg 1 1479 43.91% 25.91%
23 2020-12-19 58.0 @ Fredericia 1 1444 52.11% HB Koge 1 1387 23.71% 24.18%
24 2020-12-18 57.9 @ Hobro 1 1444 53.39% Kolding IF 1 1377 22.81% 23.80%
25 2020-12-06 57.8 @ Vendsyssel 2 1362 23.53% Silkeborg 1 1527 52.36% 24.11%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-02-14 31.7 @ Fremad Amager 4 1446 61.01% Skive 0 1318 18.02% 20.97%
2 2021-05-11 32.1 @ Hobro 3 1422 58.87% Skive 0 1312 19.28% 21.85%
3 2021-05-26 32.4 @ Viborg 4 1578 72.77% HB Koge 0 1343 11.99% 15.25%
4 2021-05-01 33.6 @ Hvidovre 3 1368 51.41% Skive 0 1316 24.21% 24.38%
5 2021-04-03 33.7 @ Fremad Amager 3 1442 56.77% Vendsyssel 0 1348 20.57% 22.65%
6 2021-02-18 34.2 @ Silkeborg 3 1540 66.08% Kolding IF 0 1368 15.26% 18.66%
7 2021-03-05 34.2 Viborg 3 1538 60.12% @ Skive 0 1312 18.54% 21.35%
8 2021-04-25 34.3 @ Fremad Amager 2 1435 59.38% Skive 0 1321 18.97% 21.65%
9 2020-12-18 35.1 Silkeborg 4 1527 56.77% @ Skive 0 1328 20.57% 22.65%
10 2020-09-20 35.2 @ Fremad Amager 4 1430 52.10% Hvidovre 0 1372 23.72% 24.18%
11 2020-10-30 35.5 @ Viborg 3 1507 60.09% Helsingor 0 1387 18.55% 21.36%
12 2021-05-27 35.6 @ Kolding IF 2 1356 50.64% Skive 0 1310 24.78% 24.58%
13 2021-02-28 35.8 @ HB Koge 3 1394 48.07% Vendsyssel 0 1367 26.74% 25.19%
14 2021-05-07 35.9 @ Fredericia 3 1425 50.61% HB Koge 0 1379 24.80% 24.59%
15 2021-02-14 36.1 @ Silkeborg 2 1536 65.82% Hvidovre 0 1367 15.40% 18.78%
16 2020-09-16 36.2 @ Silkeborg 2 1482 59.59% Skive 0 1365 18.84% 21.56%
17 2021-05-11 36.8 @ Vendsyssel 3 1341 41.45% Kolding IF 0 1361 32.37% 26.18%
18 2020-11-28 36.9 Fredericia 4 1443 44.59% @ Skive 0 1335 29.59% 25.82%
19 2020-12-03 37.3 @ Esbjerg 2 1486 58.15% Kolding IF 0 1382 19.72% 22.14%
20 2021-03-12 37.6 @ Helsingor 2 1395 48.53% Hvidovre 0 1365 26.38% 25.09%
21 2020-09-18 37.8 @ Helsingor 3 1390 43.03% Vendsyssel 0 1399 30.95% 26.02%
22 2021-03-06 38.0 @ Hvidovre 2 1358 44.74% Kolding IF 0 1354 29.47% 25.79%
23 2021-04-05 38.5 @ Silkeborg 2 1568 65.49% Helsingor 0 1401 15.57% 18.94%
24 2021-03-07 38.6 @ Silkeborg 2 1549 63.09% HB Koge 0 1404 16.85% 20.06%
25 2021-05-15 38.7 @ Silkeborg 4 1594 73.81% HB Koge 1 1350 11.50% 14.69%