Home / Leagues / Denmark / 1st Division / 2023-24
‹ ›

2023-24 1st Division Season

192 games

Final

Promoted

Sonderjyske

68 pts

Aalborg · 65 pts

Relegated

Helsingor

16 pts

Naestved · 27 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Sonderjyske

28.18 points above expected

68 points · 39.82 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Helsingor

7.67 points below expected

16 points · 23.67 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Aalborg 22 15 6 1 51 48 22 +26 42.00 +9.00
2 Sonderjyske 22 15 4 3 49 58 24 +34 39.82 +9.18
3 Vendsyssel 22 10 6 6 36 34 28 +6 30.37 +5.63
4 Fredericia 22 9 8 5 35 34 27 +7 33.92 +1.08
5 Kolding IF 22 10 3 9 33 34 32 +2 27.78 +5.22
6 Hobro 22 10 3 9 33 26 24 +2 30.06 +2.94
7 Hillerod 22 8 6 8 30 39 32 +7 27.80 +2.20
8 B.93 22 8 4 10 28 26 37 -11 26.69 +1.31
9 Horsens 22 7 4 11 25 28 35 -7 30.40 -5.40
10 HB Koge 22 5 3 14 18 24 50 -26 25.67 -7.67
11 Naestved 22 1 11 10 14 25 42 -17 24.10 -10.10
12 Helsingor 22 2 6 14 12 23 46 -23 23.67 -11.67
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sonderjyske Promoted 32 20 8 4 68 71 29 +42 — —
2 Aalborg Promoted 32 19 8 5 65 66 38 +28 — —
3 Kolding IF 32 14 7 11 49 52 46 +6 — —
4 Fredericia 32 13 8 11 47 46 42 +4 — —
5 Hobro 32 14 5 13 47 42 40 +2 — —
6 Vendsyssel 32 11 10 11 43 45 50 -5 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hillerod 32 13 10 9 49 58 41 +17 — —
2 Horsens 32 12 7 13 43 37 45 -8 — —
3 B.93 32 11 6 15 39 45 55 -10 — —
4 HB Koge 32 9 7 16 34 43 66 -23 — —
5 Naestved Relegated 32 5 12 15 27 33 53 -20 — —
6 Helsingor Relegated 32 2 10 20 16 32 65 -33 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sonderjyske 68 39.82 +28.18
2 Aalborg 65 42.00 +23.00
3 Kolding IF 49 27.78 +21.22
4 Hillerod 49 27.80 +21.20
5 Hobro 47 30.06 +16.94

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Helsingor 16 23.67 -7.67
2 Naestved 27 24.10 +2.90
3 HB Koge 34 25.67 +8.33
4 B.93 39 26.69 +12.31
5 Horsens 43 30.40 +12.60

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sonderjyske 8 Sep 24 – Nov 24 1 in 91
2 B.93 3 Nov 10 – Dec 5 1 in 49
3 Kolding IF 3 May 3 – May 17 1 in 26
4 Hobro 3 Jul 23 – Aug 4 1 in 21
5 Hillerod 4 May 10 – Jun 1 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aalborg 3 Apr 25 – May 11 1 in 74
2 B.93 6 Sep 22 – Nov 4 1 in 55
3 Naestved 4 Jul 23 – Aug 13 1 in 47
4 Hillerod 4 Jul 21 – Aug 11 1 in 31
5 Helsingor 5 May 5 – Jun 1 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sonderjyske 15 Aug 6 – Nov 24 1 in 67
2 Kolding IF 8 Feb 23 – Apr 21 1 in 57
3 Vendsyssel 9 Oct 9 – Mar 2 1 in 42
4 Naestved 7 Dec 5 – Apr 7 1 in 41
5 Aalborg 16 Jul 22 – Nov 12 1 in 39

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Helsingor 30 Aug 5 – Jun 1 1 in 8,815
2 Aalborg 6 Apr 7 – May 11 1 in 109
3 Naestved 11 Jul 23 – Oct 1 1 in 60
4 Horsens 6 Dec 1 – Apr 1 1 in 24
5 HB Koge 8 Aug 4 – Sep 22 1 in 20

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sonderjyske 1638 68 +6 9 9.2 -0.2
Aalborg 1635 65 +2 9 9.0 +0.0
Hillerod 1536 49 +32 13 8.8 +4.2
Kolding IF 1500 49 +23 10 5.7 +4.3
Hobro 1480 47 +32 10 5.1 +4.9
Fredericia 1494 47 -7 3 6.0 -3.0
Horsens 1446 43 -1 8 7.7 +0.3
Vendsyssel 1464 43 -56 1 6.2 -5.2
B.93 1444 39 +25 7 7.1 -0.1
HB Koge 1385 34 -10 8 6.4 +1.6
Naestved 1377 27 -8 6 6.4 -0.4
Helsingor 1294 16 -38 0 4.8 -4.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AAL B.9 FRE HK HEL HIL HOB HOR KI NAE SON VEN
Aalborg —
2-0-0
3.86
3-0-1
7.33
2-0-0
4.32
0-2-0
4.11
2-0-0
3.85
1-0-3
7.90
2-0-0
3.51
3-1-0
7.74
0-2-0
4.21
1-2-1
5.85
3-1-0
7.60
B.93
0-0-2
1.68
—
1-0-1
2.24
3-0-1
5.77
2-1-1
6.34
1-0-3
4.88
0-1-1
2.47
1-2-1
4.98
1-1-0
2.65
2-1-1
5.95
0-0-2
1.49
0-0-2
2.34
Fredericia
1-0-3
3.67
1-0-1
3.26
—
0-2-0
3.74
0-2-0
3.90
1-1-0
3.40
2-0-2
5.93
1-1-0
3.06
2-0-2
6.42
1-1-0
3.71
1-0-3
4.28
3-1-0
5.55
HB Koge
0-0-2
1.25
1-0-3
5.16
0-2-0
1.77
—
3-1-0
6.04
1-2-1
4.27
0-0-2
2.42
1-1-2
4.52
0-0-2
2.41
2-1-1
5.45
0-0-2
1.54
1-0-1
2.42
Helsingor
0-2-0
1.45
1-1-2
4.62
0-2-0
1.62
0-1-3
4.90
—
0-1-3
3.98
0-0-2
2.12
0-1-3
4.08
0-1-1
2.23
1-1-2
4.79
0-0-2
1.35
0-0-2
2.46
Hillerod
0-0-2
1.67
3-0-1
6.05
0-1-1
2.08
1-2-1
6.69
3-1-0
7.05
—
0-1-1
2.46
2-1-1
5.60
0-0-2
2.77
2-2-0
6.72
1-1-0
1.62
1-1-0
2.32
Hobro
3-0-1
3.16
1-1-0
2.99
2-0-2
5.00
2-0-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.36
1-1-0
3.00
—
1-0-1
2.64
0-1-3
5.60
1-0-1
3.08
0-1-3
3.51
1-1-2
4.87
Horsens
0-0-2
1.98
1-2-1
5.96
0-1-1
2.40
2-1-1
6.43
3-1-0
6.89
1-1-2
5.35
1-0-1
2.83
—
0-0-2
3.24
3-1-0
6.35
0-0-2
2.29
1-0-1
2.90
Kolding IF
0-1-3
3.30
0-1-1
2.81
2-0-2
4.52
2-0-0
3.06
1-1-0
3.25
2-0-0
2.70
3-1-0
5.32
2-0-0
2.23
—
1-1-0
3.04
0-1-3
3.70
1-1-2
4.98
Naestved
0-2-0
1.35
1-1-2
4.98
0-1-1
1.79
1-1-2
5.48
2-1-1
6.15
0-2-2
4.25
1-0-1
2.39
0-1-3
4.59
0-1-1
2.44
—
0-0-2
1.85
0-2-0
2.12
Sonderjyske
1-2-1
5.08
2-0-0
4.05
3-0-1
6.68
2-0-0
3.99
2-0-0
4.22
0-1-1
3.91
3-1-0
7.50
2-0-0
3.18
3-1-0
7.30
2-0-0
3.68
—
0-3-1
7.07
Vendsyssel
0-1-3
3.42
2-0-0
3.14
0-1-3
5.37
1-0-1
3.06
2-0-0
3.01
0-1-1
3.14
2-1-1
6.07
1-0-1
2.56
2-1-1
5.95
0-2-0
3.36
1-3-0
3.92
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.82 +10.6
Allowed 0.78 -11.7
Differential 0.93 +6.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.77%8.33%4.69%1.82%2.86%1.04%25.52%
18.33%10.94%6.51%4.95%2.60%0.78%34.11%
24.69%6.51%5.21%2.34%0.52%—19.27%
31.82%4.95%2.34%2.08%0.52%0.26%11.98%
42.86%2.60%0.52%0.52%0.52%—7.03%
5+1.04%0.78%—0.26%——2.08%
Total25.52%34.11%19.27%11.98%7.03%2.08%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.48 +0.00
SD 1.34 1.34 1.98
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.12%————3.12%
112.50%12.50%9.38%———34.38%
23.12%12.50%9.38%3.12%——28.12%
36.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%——21.88%
43.12%6.25%—3.12%——12.50%
5+———————
Total25.00%40.62%25.00%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.19 +0.88
SD 1.11 0.93 1.34
CV 0.54 0.78 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%3.12%6.25%9.38%6.25%40.62%
19.38%9.38%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
26.25%—3.12%———9.38%
33.12%3.12%3.12%——3.12%12.50%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+—6.25%————6.25%
Total28.12%28.12%15.62%9.38%9.38%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.72 -0.31
SD 1.86 1.65 2.80
CV 1.33 0.96 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%9.38%6.25%—9.38%—37.50%
13.12%6.25%6.25%———15.62%
29.38%9.38%3.12%3.12%——25.00%
3—6.25%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total28.12%37.50%18.75%6.25%9.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.31 +0.12
SD 1.44 1.23 2.04
CV 1.00 0.94 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%3.12%12.50%—6.25%—28.12%
19.38%9.38%9.38%6.25%6.25%6.25%46.88%
2——3.12%———3.12%
3—6.25%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+3.12%——3.12%——6.25%
Total21.88%18.75%28.12%12.50%12.50%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 2.06 -0.72
SD 1.43 1.83 2.48
CV 1.06 0.89 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%18.75%6.25%3.12%3.12%—37.50%
1—9.38%6.25%12.50%—3.12%31.25%
23.12%3.12%12.50%3.12%3.12%—25.00%
3———3.12%3.12%—6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total9.38%31.25%25.00%21.88%9.38%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.03 -1.03
SD 0.95 1.36 1.38
CV 0.95 0.67 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%9.38%—3.12%3.12%—25.00%
13.12%9.38%6.25%3.12%——21.88%
29.38%—9.38%3.12%——21.88%
33.12%9.38%3.12%———15.62%
46.25%—3.12%—3.12%—12.50%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total31.25%31.25%21.88%9.38%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.28 +0.53
SD 1.55 1.20 1.98
CV 0.86 0.93 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%12.50%6.25%———21.88%
112.50%9.38%12.50%6.25%——40.62%
26.25%12.50%3.12%3.12%——25.00%
3—3.12%6.25%———9.38%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total21.88%40.62%28.12%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.25 +0.06
SD 1.03 0.92 1.34
CV 0.78 0.73 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%——6.25%25.00%
115.62%15.62%9.38%3.12%6.25%—50.00%
26.25%3.12%—3.12%——12.50%
33.12%6.25%————9.38%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total31.25%34.38%15.62%6.25%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.41 -0.25
SD 1.02 1.48 2.00
CV 0.88 1.05 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%12.50%—3.12%3.12%—21.88%
16.25%12.50%6.25%6.25%——31.25%
2—15.62%—3.12%——18.75%
3—9.38%3.12%6.25%——18.75%
46.25%—3.12%———9.38%
5+———————
Total15.62%50.00%12.50%18.75%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.44 +0.19
SD 1.29 1.08 1.75
CV 0.79 0.75 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%12.50%6.25%3.12%——31.25%
19.38%15.62%6.25%3.12%9.38%—43.75%
2—3.12%6.25%6.25%——15.62%
3—3.12%—6.25%——9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%34.38%18.75%18.75%9.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.66 -0.62
SD 0.93 1.26 1.29
CV 0.90 0.76 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%——15.62%
16.25%9.38%—3.12%——18.75%
29.38%9.38%9.38%———28.12%
33.12%3.12%————6.25%
412.50%12.50%—3.12%——28.12%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total40.62%37.50%12.50%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 0.91 +1.31
SD 1.52 0.96 1.96
CV 0.68 1.06 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%—6.25%———18.75%
112.50%12.50%—12.50%9.38%—46.88%
23.12%9.38%3.12%—3.12%—18.75%
33.12%3.12%——3.12%—9.38%
4————3.12%—3.12%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total34.38%25.00%9.38%12.50%18.75%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.56 -0.16
SD 1.19 1.54 1.83
CV 0.84 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sonderjyske 1638 68 39.82 +28.18 96.0% 24 28 36 40 44 49 52
Aalborg 1635 65 42.00 +23.00 95.0% 29 32 38 42 46 51 57
Hillerod 1536 49 27.80 +21.20 71.0% 17 19 24 27 32 37 41
Kolding IF 1500 49 27.78 +21.22 85.0% 10 17 24 28 31 39 45
Fredericia 1494 47 33.92 +13.08 60.0% 19 24 29 34 39 43 50
Hobro 1480 47 30.06 +16.94 66.0% 17 20 25 30 35 38 46
Vendsyssel 1464 43 30.37 +12.63 83.0% 18 20 25 31 34 41 43
Horsens 1446 43 30.40 +12.60 15.0% 13 20 27 30 34 39 45
B.93 1444 39 26.69 +12.31 65.0% 11 17 22 27 31 35 41
HB Koge 1385 34 25.67 +8.33 10.0% 12 17 22 25 30 34 38
Naestved 1377 27 24.10 +2.90 3.0% 13 15 20 24 28 34 37
Helsingor 1294 16 23.67 -7.67 1.0% 11 15 19 23 27 34 40

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.60%
No Edge
38.54%25.52%35.94%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 9.05 Elo pts.
172 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.03 goals
Neutral
-2+0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
30%
Sonderjyske, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Tight Race
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.62 * Some Luck: 4.62 to 6.93 * Lucky: 6.93 to 9.24 * Wild Swing: 9.24 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.76 * Close: 1.76 to 2.64 * Off: 2.64 to 3.52 * Way Off: 3.52 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 2 * A Surprise: 2 to 3.2 * Several Surprises: 3.2 to 4.4 * Many Surprises: 4.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.87 points
Some Luck
05.7814
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Pinpoint
02.205
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
96.00%
Sonderjyske
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.00%
Helsingor
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 2.0
2 of 2
A Surprise
02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Top-Heavy
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 92.42
1.94
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
61%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Clear Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Occasional
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.46
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.18
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.43
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.53
Very Underconfident
0.3063031.001.6937
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.081
Well Within Noise
00.1230.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Sonderjyske30.00%41.00%15.00%4.00%1.00%2.00%4.00%1.00%—2.00%——
Aalborg47.00%28.00%6.00%11.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%—————
Hillerod2.00%2.00%9.00%5.00%9.00%9.00%12.00%15.00%13.00%10.00%11.00%3.00%
Kolding IF1.00%2.00%8.00%4.00%10.00%12.00%13.00%16.00%9.00%8.00%8.00%9.00%
Fredericia13.00%11.00%18.00%12.00%11.00%13.00%9.00%6.00%—4.00%3.00%—
Hobro2.00%2.00%11.00%17.00%13.00%6.00%12.00%7.00%10.00%7.00%7.00%6.00%
Vendsyssel1.00%7.00%14.00%10.00%15.00%14.00%6.00%8.00%9.00%3.00%9.00%4.00%
Horsens3.00%4.00%9.00%18.00%7.00%15.00%12.00%12.00%9.00%3.00%3.00%5.00%
B.93—2.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%15.00%9.00%10.00%13.00%12.00%10.00%11.00%
HB Koge——2.00%4.00%14.00%9.00%5.00%6.00%15.00%16.00%14.00%15.00%
Naestved—1.00%1.00%5.00%5.00%1.00%8.00%13.00%13.00%15.00%16.00%22.00%
Helsingor1.00%—2.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%9.00%6.00%9.00%20.00%19.00%25.00%
Team123456789101112
Sonderjyske————————————
Aalborg————————————
Hillerod————————————
Kolding IF————————————
Fredericia————————————
Hobro————————————
Vendsyssel————————————
Horsens————————————
B.93————————————
HB Koge————————————
Naestved————————————
Helsingor————————————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for Championship Round
Aalborg 99.00% 1.00%
B.93 35.00% 65.00%
Fredericia 78.00% 22.00%
HB Koge 29.00% 71.00%
Helsingor 12.00% 88.00%
Hillerod 36.00% 64.00%
Hobro 51.00% 49.00%
Horsens 56.00% 44.00%
Kolding IF 37.00% 63.00%
Naestved 13.00% 87.00%
Sonderjyske 93.00% 7.00%
Vendsyssel 61.00% 39.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for Championship Round
Aalborg 100% —
B.93 — 100%
Fredericia 100% —
HB Koge — 100%
Helsingor — 100%
Hillerod — 100%
Hobro 100% —
Horsens — 100%
Kolding IF 100% —
Naestved — 100%
Sonderjyske 100% —
Vendsyssel 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2023-07-21 HB Koge L 0-442.2 1439 1461 36.28% 26.94% 36.79%-0.07 -26.0 0
2023-07-21 @ Hillerod W 4-042.2 1461 1439 36.79% 26.94% 36.28%+0.07 +26.0 3
2023-07-21 Sonderjyske D 1-160.6 1469 1504 34.36% 26.91% 38.73%-0.15 +0.2 1
2023-07-21 @ Vendsyssel D 1-160.6 1504 1469 38.73% 26.91% 34.36%+0.15 -0.2 1
2023-07-22 Aalborg L 0-345.3 1478 1556 28.82% 26.51% 44.67%-0.40 -16.7 0
2023-07-22 @ B.93 W 3-045.3 1556 1478 44.67% 26.51% 28.82%+0.40 +16.7 3
2023-07-23 Hobro L 0-248.8 1491 1446 45.55% 26.41% 28.03%+0.31 -16.3 0
2023-07-23 @ Fredericia W 2-048.8 1446 1491 28.03% 26.41% 45.55%-0.31 +16.3 3
2023-07-23 Horsens W 2-156.7 1427 1507 28.56% 26.48% 44.95%-0.41 +8.0 3
2023-07-23 @ Kolding IF L 1-256.7 1507 1427 44.95% 26.48% 28.56%+0.41 -8.1 0
2023-07-23 Naestved W 2-153.2 1453 1462 38.04% 26.92% 35.03%+0.00 +6.7 3
2023-07-23 @ Helsingor L 1-253.2 1462 1453 35.03% 26.92% 38.04%+0.00 -6.7 0
2023-07-28 Fredericia L 1-355.2 1504 1475 43.39% 26.64% 29.97%+0.22 -13.6 1
2023-07-28 @ Sonderjyske W 3-155.2 1475 1504 29.97% 26.64% 43.39%-0.22 +13.6 3
2023-07-28 Naestved W 3-257.8 1463 1455 40.43% 26.84% 32.73%+0.10 +6.0 6
2023-07-28 @ Hobro L 2-357.8 1455 1463 32.73% 26.84% 40.43%-0.10 -6.0 0
2023-07-28 Vendsyssel W 3-150.8 1487 1469 41.88% 26.76% 31.37%+0.16 +10.6 6
2023-07-28 @ HB Koge L 1-350.8 1469 1487 31.37% 26.76% 41.88%-0.16 -10.6 1
2023-07-29 Hillerod W 2-149.8 1435 1413 42.43% 26.72% 30.86%+0.18 +6.1 6
2023-07-29 @ Kolding IF L 1-249.8 1413 1435 30.86% 26.72% 42.43%-0.18 -6.0 0
2023-07-29 Horsens W 1-050.4 1573 1499 49.36% 25.85% 24.80%+0.48 +5.4 6
2023-07-29 @ Aalborg L 0-150.4 1499 1573 24.80% 25.85% 49.36%-0.48 -5.4 0
2023-07-30 B.93 W 2-044.9 1459 1461 39.08% 26.90% 34.03%+0.04 +13.0 6
2023-07-30 @ Helsingor L 0-244.9 1461 1459 34.03% 26.90% 39.08%-0.04 -13.1 0
2023-08-04 HB Koge W 2-047.5 1494 1497 38.85% 26.90% 34.25%+0.03 +13.1 3
2023-08-04 @ Horsens L 0-247.5 1497 1494 34.25% 26.90% 38.85%-0.03 -13.1 6
2023-08-04 Hobro L 0-145.5 1407 1469 30.84% 26.72% 42.44%-0.31 -6.4 0
2023-08-04 @ Hillerod W 1-045.5 1469 1407 42.44% 26.72% 30.84%+0.31 +6.4 9
2023-08-05 Helsingor W 2-153.9 1458 1472 37.37% 26.93% 35.70%-0.03 +6.8 4
2023-08-05 @ Vendsyssel L 1-253.9 1472 1458 35.70% 26.93% 37.37%+0.03 -6.8 6
2023-08-05 Kolding IF D 1-157.7 1448 1441 40.43% 26.84% 32.73%+0.10 -0.3 1
2023-08-05 @ B.93 D 1-157.7 1441 1448 32.73% 26.84% 40.43%-0.10 +0.3 7
2023-08-06 Fredericia W 4-043.9 1578 1488 51.34% 25.47% 23.19%+0.58 +18.1 9
2023-08-06 @ Aalborg L 0-443.9 1488 1578 23.19% 25.47% 51.34%-0.58 -18.1 3
2023-08-06 Sonderjyske L 1-448.5 1449 1490 33.59% 26.88% 39.53%-0.19 -15.8 0
2023-08-06 @ Naestved W 4-148.5 1490 1449 39.53% 26.88% 33.59%+0.19 +15.8 4
2023-08-11 Aalborg D 1-164.4 1466 1596 23.07% 25.43% 51.50%-0.71 +1.2 7
2023-08-11 @ Helsingor D 1-164.4 1596 1466 51.50% 25.43% 23.07%+0.71 -1.2 10
2023-08-11 B.93 L 1-748.7 1484 1448 44.39% 26.54% 29.07%+0.26 -36.6 6
2023-08-11 @ HB Koge W 7-148.7 1448 1484 29.07% 26.54% 44.39%-0.26 +36.5 4
2023-08-11 Hillerod W 3-253.7 1470 1401 48.84% 25.94% 25.22%+0.46 +4.9 6
2023-08-11 @ Fredericia L 2-353.7 1401 1470 25.22% 25.94% 48.84%-0.46 -4.9 0
2023-08-12 Horsens W 5-045.9 1506 1507 39.29% 26.89% 33.82%+0.05 +30.4 7
2023-08-12 @ Sonderjyske L 0-545.9 1507 1506 33.82% 26.89% 39.29%-0.05 -30.4 3
2023-08-13 Kolding IF L 1-252.9 1433 1441 38.28% 26.92% 34.80%+0.01 -7.1 0
2023-08-13 @ Naestved W 2-152.9 1441 1433 34.80% 26.92% 38.28%-0.01 +7.1 10
2023-08-13 Vendsyssel L 0-150.6 1475 1465 40.81% 26.82% 32.37%+0.11 -7.9 9
2023-08-13 @ Hobro W 1-050.6 1465 1475 32.37% 26.82% 40.81%-0.11 +7.9 7
2023-08-18 Fredericia L 0-546.0 1485 1475 40.69% 26.83% 32.48%+0.11 -34.9 4
2023-08-18 @ B.93 W 5-046.0 1475 1485 32.48% 26.83% 40.69%-0.11 +34.9 9
2023-08-18 Helsingor W 3-150.7 1476 1467 40.73% 26.83% 32.45%+0.11 +10.9 6
2023-08-18 @ Horsens L 1-350.7 1467 1476 32.45% 26.83% 40.73%-0.11 -10.9 7
2023-08-18 Naestved D 1-163.7 1595 1426 60.53% 22.87% 16.60%+1.04 -1.9 11
2023-08-18 @ Aalborg D 1-163.7 1426 1595 16.60% 22.87% 60.53%-1.04 +1.9 1
2023-08-18 Sonderjyske L 1-350.7 1448 1536 27.63% 26.35% 46.01%-0.46 -9.6 10
2023-08-18 @ Kolding IF W 3-150.7 1536 1448 46.01% 26.35% 27.63%+0.46 +9.6 10
2023-08-19 Vendsyssel W 2-046.2 1396 1473 28.92% 26.52% 44.55%-0.40 +16.0 3
2023-08-19 @ Hillerod L 0-246.2 1473 1396 44.55% 26.52% 28.92%+0.40 -16.0 7
2023-08-20 Hobro L 0-245.4 1448 1467 36.58% 26.94% 36.49%-0.06 -13.8 6
2023-08-20 @ HB Koge W 2-045.4 1467 1448 36.49% 26.94% 36.58%+0.06 +13.8 12
2023-08-22 B.93 L 0-147.3 1428 1450 36.30% 26.94% 36.76%-0.07 -7.3 1
2023-08-22 @ Naestved W 1-047.3 1450 1428 36.76% 26.94% 36.30%+0.07 +7.3 7
2023-08-22 Horsens W 2-046.6 1510 1487 42.59% 26.70% 30.71%+0.19 +12.1 12
2023-08-22 @ Fredericia L 0-246.6 1487 1510 30.71% 26.70% 42.59%-0.19 -12.1 6
2023-08-23 HB Koge W 4-039.9 1546 1434 54.09% 24.83% 21.07%+0.71 +16.6 13
2023-08-23 @ Sonderjyske L 0-439.9 1434 1546 21.07% 24.83% 54.09%-0.71 -16.6 6
2023-08-23 Hillerod L 1-647.2 1456 1412 45.46% 26.42% 28.11%+0.31 -31.5 7
2023-08-23 @ Helsingor W 6-147.2 1412 1456 28.11% 26.42% 45.46%-0.31 +31.5 6
2023-08-23 Kolding IF W 2-151.4 1457 1439 41.93% 26.75% 31.32%+0.16 +6.1 10
2023-08-23 @ Vendsyssel L 1-251.4 1439 1457 31.32% 26.75% 41.93%-0.16 -6.1 10
2023-08-24 Aalborg L 1-255.7 1481 1593 24.95% 25.88% 49.17%-0.60 -5.1 12
2023-08-24 @ Hobro W 2-155.7 1593 1481 49.17% 25.88% 24.95%+0.60 +5.1 14
2023-08-25 Naestved W 3-039.7 1475 1421 46.80% 26.25% 26.95%+0.37 +15.8 9
2023-08-25 @ Horsens L 0-339.7 1421 1475 26.95% 26.25% 46.80%-0.37 -15.8 1
2023-08-26 Helsingor W 4-039.8 1433 1424 40.54% 26.84% 32.62%+0.10 +24.0 13
2023-08-26 @ Kolding IF L 0-439.8 1424 1433 32.62% 26.84% 40.54%-0.10 -24.0 7
2023-08-26 Vendsyssel L 0-544.0 1457 1463 38.52% 26.91% 34.57%+0.02 -33.5 7
2023-08-26 @ B.93 W 5-044.0 1463 1457 34.57% 26.91% 38.52%-0.02 +33.5 13
2023-08-27 Fredericia D 0-055.5 1417 1522 25.73% 26.04% 48.23%-0.56 +1.0 7
2023-08-27 @ HB Koge D 0-055.5 1522 1417 48.23% 26.04% 25.73%+0.56 -1.0 13
2023-08-27 Hillerod W 3-041.3 1598 1443 59.04% 23.38% 17.58%+0.96 +10.7 17
2023-08-27 @ Aalborg L 0-341.3 1443 1598 17.58% 23.38% 59.04%-0.96 -10.7 6
2023-08-28 Sonderjyske L 1-255.4 1476 1563 27.79% 26.38% 45.83%-0.45 -5.6 12
2023-08-28 @ Hobro W 2-155.4 1563 1476 45.83% 26.38% 27.79%+0.45 +5.6 16
2023-09-01 B.93 D 0-054.7 1491 1424 48.52% 25.99% 25.49%+0.45 -1.0 10
2023-09-01 @ Horsens D 0-054.7 1424 1491 25.49% 25.99% 48.52%-0.45 +1.0 8
2023-09-01 Fredericia L 0-249.0 1496 1521 35.85% 26.93% 37.22%-0.09 -13.6 13
2023-09-01 @ Vendsyssel W 2-049.0 1521 1496 37.22% 26.93% 35.85%+0.09 +13.6 16
2023-09-01 Sonderjyske D 2-267.7 1432 1568 22.58% 25.30% 52.11%-0.74 +0.9 7
2023-09-01 @ Hillerod D 2-267.7 1568 1432 52.11% 25.30% 22.58%+0.74 -0.9 17
2023-09-03 Hobro L 1-347.5 1400 1470 29.81% 26.62% 43.57%-0.36 -10.2 7
2023-09-03 @ Helsingor W 3-147.5 1470 1400 43.57% 26.62% 29.81%+0.36 +10.2 15
2023-09-03 Kolding IF W 3-149.8 1609 1457 58.74% 23.48% 17.78%+0.94 +6.4 20
2023-09-03 @ Aalborg L 1-349.8 1457 1609 17.78% 23.48% 58.74%-0.94 -6.4 13
2023-09-04 HB Koge D 3-365.6 1405 1418 37.52% 26.93% 35.55%-0.02 -0.1 2
2023-09-04 @ Naestved D 3-365.6 1418 1405 35.55% 26.93% 37.52%+0.02 +0.0 8
2023-09-14 Kolding IF L 0-146.5 1418 1450 34.84% 26.92% 38.24%-0.13 -7.0 8
2023-09-14 @ HB Koge W 1-046.5 1450 1418 38.24% 26.92% 34.84%+0.13 +7.1 16
2023-09-15 Aalborg D 1-167.6 1567 1615 32.62% 26.84% 40.55%-0.23 +0.3 18
2023-09-15 @ Sonderjyske D 1-167.6 1615 1567 40.55% 26.84% 32.62%+0.23 -0.3 21
2023-09-15 B.93 L 0-147.9 1433 1425 40.62% 26.83% 32.55%+0.10 -7.9 7
2023-09-15 @ Hillerod W 1-047.9 1425 1433 32.55% 26.83% 40.62%-0.10 +7.9 11
2023-09-15 Horsens L 0-151.0 1481 1490 38.05% 26.92% 35.02%+0.00 -7.5 15
2023-09-15 @ Hobro W 1-051.0 1490 1481 35.02% 26.92% 38.05%+0.00 +7.5 13
2023-09-17 Helsingor D 0-055.7 1535 1390 57.86% 23.76% 18.38%+0.90 -1.9 17
2023-09-17 @ Fredericia D 0-055.7 1390 1535 18.38% 23.76% 57.86%-0.90 +1.8 8
2023-09-17 Naestved D 1-158.0 1483 1405 49.86% 25.76% 24.39%+0.51 -1.0 14
2023-09-17 @ Vendsyssel D 1-158.0 1405 1483 24.39% 25.76% 49.86%-0.51 +1.0 3
2023-09-22 Fredericia L 1-254.0 1457 1533 29.10% 26.54% 44.35%-0.39 -5.8 16
2023-09-22 @ Kolding IF W 2-154.0 1533 1457 44.35% 26.54% 29.10%+0.39 +5.8 20
2023-09-22 HB Koge W 2-041.2 1615 1411 64.21% 21.45% 14.34%+1.24 +5.9 24
2023-09-22 @ Aalborg L 0-241.2 1411 1615 14.34% 21.45% 64.21%-1.24 -6.0 8
2023-09-22 Hobro L 1-252.5 1432 1473 33.64% 26.88% 39.48%-0.18 -6.5 11
2023-09-22 @ B.93 W 2-152.5 1473 1432 39.48% 26.88% 33.64%+0.18 +6.5 18
2023-09-23 Vendsyssel W 3-151.8 1497 1482 41.55% 26.78% 31.67%+0.14 +10.7 16
2023-09-23 @ Horsens L 1-351.8 1482 1497 31.67% 26.78% 41.55%-0.14 -10.7 14
2023-09-24 Hillerod D 2-261.6 1406 1425 36.62% 26.94% 36.45%-0.06 -0.0 4
2023-09-24 @ Naestved D 2-261.6 1425 1406 36.45% 26.94% 36.62%+0.06 +0.0 8
2023-09-24 Sonderjyske L 3-457.3 1392 1568 19.07% 24.07% 56.85%-0.97 -3.7 8
2023-09-24 @ Helsingor W 4-357.3 1568 1392 56.85% 24.07% 19.07%+0.97 +3.7 21
2023-09-29 Aalborg L 1-352.2 1471 1621 21.26% 24.90% 53.84%-0.82 -7.7 14
2023-09-29 @ Vendsyssel W 3-152.2 1621 1471 53.84% 24.90% 21.26%+0.82 +7.7 27
2023-09-29 Horsens D 0-055.2 1426 1508 28.28% 26.44% 45.28%-0.43 +0.8 9
2023-09-29 @ Hillerod D 0-055.2 1508 1426 45.28% 26.44% 28.28%+0.43 -0.8 17
2023-09-30 B.93 W 4-039.4 1571 1426 57.94% 23.74% 18.32%+0.90 +14.5 24
2023-09-30 @ Sonderjyske L 0-439.4 1426 1571 18.32% 23.74% 57.94%-0.90 -14.5 11
2023-10-01 Helsingor W 1-043.5 1405 1388 41.76% 26.76% 31.47%+0.15 +6.5 11
2023-10-01 @ HB Koge L 0-143.5 1388 1405 31.47% 26.76% 41.76%-0.15 -6.5 8
2023-10-01 Kolding IF L 2-361.3 1479 1451 43.30% 26.65% 30.06%+0.22 -7.4 18
2023-10-01 @ Hobro W 3-261.3 1451 1479 30.06% 26.65% 43.30%-0.22 +7.4 19
2023-10-01 Naestved W 4-143.6 1539 1406 56.48% 24.18% 19.34%+0.83 +9.9 23
2023-10-01 @ Fredericia L 1-443.6 1406 1539 19.34% 24.18% 56.48%-0.83 -9.9 4
2023-10-06 Aalborg L 1-452.2 1507 1629 24.00% 25.67% 50.33%-0.65 -12.1 17
2023-10-06 @ Horsens W 4-152.2 1629 1507 50.33% 25.67% 24.00%+0.65 +12.1 30
2023-10-06 Hillerod L 0-341.3 1411 1426 37.27% 26.93% 35.80%-0.03 -20.3 11
2023-10-06 @ B.93 W 3-041.3 1426 1411 35.80% 26.93% 37.27%+0.03 +20.3 12
2023-10-06 Sonderjyske L 1-260.7 1549 1586 34.09% 26.90% 39.01%-0.16 -6.5 23
2023-10-06 @ Fredericia W 2-160.7 1586 1549 39.01% 26.90% 34.09%+0.16 +6.5 27
2023-10-07 HB Koge W 3-146.8 1459 1412 45.85% 26.38% 27.78%+0.33 +9.7 22
2023-10-07 @ Kolding IF L 1-346.8 1412 1459 27.78% 26.38% 45.85%-0.33 -9.6 11
2023-10-08 Hobro W 1-049.3 1396 1472 29.09% 26.54% 44.36%-0.39 +8.5 7
2023-10-08 @ Naestved L 0-149.3 1472 1396 44.36% 26.54% 29.09%+0.39 -8.5 18
2023-10-09 Vendsyssel L 0-143.8 1382 1464 28.38% 26.46% 45.16%-0.42 -6.0 8
2023-10-09 @ Helsingor W 1-043.8 1464 1382 45.16% 26.46% 28.38%+0.42 +6.0 17
2023-10-19 Horsens W 2-155.7 1470 1495 35.70% 26.93% 37.36%-0.10 +7.0 20
2023-10-19 @ Vendsyssel L 1-255.7 1495 1470 37.36% 26.93% 35.70%+0.10 -7.0 17
2023-10-20 Fredericia D 1-161.4 1447 1542 26.78% 26.22% 46.99%-0.50 +0.8 13
2023-10-20 @ Hillerod D 1-161.4 1542 1447 46.99% 26.22% 26.78%+0.50 -0.8 24
2023-10-20 Helsingor W 1-041.8 1464 1376 51.12% 25.51% 23.37%+0.56 +5.1 21
2023-10-20 @ Hobro L 0-141.8 1376 1464 23.37% 25.51% 51.12%-0.56 -5.1 8
2023-10-20 Kolding IF W 4-042.4 1592 1468 55.48% 24.47% 20.05%+0.78 +15.9 30
2023-10-20 @ Sonderjyske L 0-442.4 1468 1592 20.05% 24.47% 55.48%-0.78 -15.9 22
2023-10-22 B.93 W 2-148.3 1641 1391 68.67% 19.46% 11.87%+1.51 +2.4 33
2023-10-22 @ Aalborg L 1-248.3 1391 1641 11.87% 19.46% 68.67%-1.51 -2.4 11
2023-10-22 Naestved W 3-255.0 1402 1405 39.02% 26.90% 34.08%+0.04 +6.2 14
2023-10-22 @ HB Koge L 2-355.0 1405 1402 34.08% 26.90% 39.02%-0.04 -6.2 7
2023-10-27 HB Koge W 2-149.1 1469 1408 47.61% 26.13% 26.25%+0.40 +5.3 24
2023-10-27 @ Hobro L 1-249.1 1408 1469 26.25% 26.13% 47.61%-0.40 -5.3 14
2023-10-27 Hillerod L 1-354.1 1488 1447 45.04% 26.47% 28.49%+0.29 -14.0 17
2023-10-27 @ Horsens W 3-154.1 1447 1488 28.49% 26.47% 45.04%-0.29 +14.0 16
2023-10-27 Sonderjyske L 0-438.2 1389 1608 15.87% 22.44% 61.69%-1.23 -12.6 11
2023-10-27 @ B.93 W 4-038.2 1608 1389 61.69% 22.44% 15.87%+1.23 +12.6 33
2023-10-28 Aalborg L 0-148.4 1453 1643 17.91% 23.54% 58.55%-1.06 -4.0 22
2023-10-28 @ Kolding IF W 1-048.4 1643 1453 58.55% 23.54% 17.91%+1.06 +4.0 36
2023-10-28 Fredericia D 3-369.0 1371 1541 19.49% 24.24% 56.27%-0.94 +0.9 9
2023-10-28 @ Helsingor D 3-369.0 1541 1371 56.27% 24.24% 19.49%+0.94 -1.0 25
2023-10-29 Vendsyssel D 1-157.4 1399 1477 28.83% 26.51% 44.66%-0.40 +0.6 8
2023-10-29 @ Naestved D 1-157.4 1477 1399 44.66% 26.51% 28.83%+0.40 -0.6 21
2023-11-03 Hobro W 1-048.5 1621 1474 58.10% 23.69% 18.21%+0.91 +4.0 36
2023-11-03 @ Sonderjyske L 0-148.5 1474 1621 18.21% 23.69% 58.10%-0.91 -4.0 24
2023-11-03 Horsens L 1-445.2 1403 1474 29.65% 26.60% 43.74%-0.36 -14.4 14
2023-11-03 @ HB Koge W 4-145.2 1474 1403 43.74% 26.60% 29.65%+0.36 +14.4 20
2023-11-04 B.93 W 1-041.8 1476 1376 52.58% 25.20% 22.22%+0.63 +4.9 24
2023-11-04 @ Vendsyssel L 0-141.8 1376 1476 22.22% 25.20% 52.58%-0.63 -4.9 11
2023-11-05 Helsingor D 2-270.5 1647 1372 71.05% 18.29% 10.66%+1.66 -1.9 37
2023-11-05 @ Aalborg D 2-270.5 1372 1647 10.66% 18.29% 71.05%-1.66 +2.0 10
2023-11-05 Kolding IF W 1-046.7 1540 1449 51.60% 25.41% 22.99%+0.59 +5.0 28
2023-11-05 @ Fredericia L 0-146.7 1449 1540 22.99% 25.41% 51.60%-0.59 -5.0 22
2023-11-06 Naestved W 1-043.4 1461 1399 47.85% 26.10% 26.05%+0.42 +5.6 19
2023-11-06 @ Hillerod L 0-143.4 1399 1461 26.05% 26.10% 47.85%-0.42 -5.6 8
2023-11-10 Fredericia D 1-163.0 1489 1545 31.50% 26.77% 41.73%-0.28 +0.4 21
2023-11-10 @ Horsens D 1-163.0 1545 1489 41.73% 26.77% 31.50%+0.28 -0.4 29
2023-11-10 Helsingor W 2-040.3 1371 1374 39.06% 26.90% 34.04%+0.04 +13.1 14
2023-11-10 @ B.93 L 0-240.3 1374 1371 34.04% 26.90% 39.06%-0.04 -13.1 10
2023-11-10 Sonderjyske L 1-444.1 1389 1625 14.80% 21.76% 63.43%-1.32 -7.5 14
2023-11-10 @ HB Koge W 4-144.1 1625 1389 63.43% 21.76% 14.80%+1.32 +7.5 39
2023-11-12 Aalborg D 1-164.8 1394 1645 13.88% 21.11% 65.01%-1.41 +2.2 9
2023-11-12 @ Naestved D 1-164.8 1645 1394 65.01% 21.11% 13.88%+1.41 -2.2 38
2023-11-12 Vendsyssel L 0-148.1 1444 1481 34.10% 26.90% 39.00%-0.16 -6.9 22
2023-11-12 @ Kolding IF W 1-048.1 1481 1444 39.00% 26.90% 34.10%+0.16 +6.9 27
2023-11-13 Hillerod D 0-055.2 1470 1467 39.81% 26.87% 33.32%+0.07 -0.3 25
2023-11-13 @ Hobro D 0-055.2 1467 1470 33.32% 26.87% 39.81%-0.07 +0.3 20
2023-11-23 B.93 L 0-449.1 1545 1384 59.63% 23.18% 17.19%+0.99 -38.6 29
2023-11-23 @ Fredericia W 4-049.1 1384 1545 17.19% 23.18% 59.63%-0.99 +38.5 17
2023-11-24 Horsens L 1-247.2 1360 1489 23.28% 25.49% 51.23%-0.70 -4.8 10
2023-11-24 @ Helsingor W 2-147.2 1489 1360 51.23% 25.49% 23.28%+0.70 +4.8 24
2023-11-24 Naestved W 4-143.4 1632 1396 67.44% 20.03% 12.53%+1.43 +6.3 42
2023-11-24 @ Sonderjyske L 1-443.4 1396 1632 12.53% 20.03% 67.44%-1.43 -6.3 9
2023-11-25 Kolding IF L 1-352.6 1467 1437 43.63% 26.62% 29.76%+0.23 -13.6 20
2023-11-25 @ Hillerod W 3-152.6 1437 1467 29.76% 26.62% 43.63%-0.23 +13.6 25
2023-11-26 HB Koge W 2-038.9 1488 1381 53.42% 25.00% 21.58%+0.67 +9.0 30
2023-11-26 @ Vendsyssel L 0-238.9 1381 1488 21.58% 25.00% 53.42%-0.67 -9.0 14
2023-11-26 Hobro L 1-266.8 1643 1470 61.02% 22.69% 16.29%+1.06 -10.3 38
2023-11-26 @ Aalborg W 2-166.8 1470 1643 16.29% 22.69% 61.02%-1.06 +10.3 28
2023-12-01 Hobro L 0-152.0 1494 1480 41.32% 26.79% 31.89%+0.13 -8.0 24
2023-12-01 @ Horsens W 1-052.0 1480 1494 31.89% 26.79% 41.32%-0.13 +8.0 31
2023-12-01 Vendsyssel D 0-057.7 1506 1497 40.74% 26.83% 32.43%+0.11 -0.4 30
2023-12-01 @ Fredericia D 0-057.7 1497 1506 32.43% 26.83% 40.74%-0.11 +0.4 31
2023-12-02 Hillerod L 0-258.1 1639 1454 62.27% 22.22% 15.51%+1.13 -21.0 42
2023-12-02 @ Sonderjyske W 2-058.1 1454 1639 15.51% 22.22% 62.27%-1.13 +21.0 23
2023-12-03 Aalborg L 1-248.1 1372 1633 13.38% 20.73% 65.89%-1.47 -2.8 14
2023-12-03 @ HB Koge W 2-148.1 1633 1372 65.89% 20.73% 13.38%+1.47 +2.8 41
2023-12-05 B.93 L 0-149.1 1450 1423 43.19% 26.66% 30.16%+0.21 -8.3 25
2023-12-05 @ Kolding IF W 1-049.1 1423 1450 30.16% 26.66% 43.19%-0.21 +8.3 20
2023-12-05 Helsingor D 2-259.9 1389 1356 44.07% 26.57% 29.36%+0.25 -0.4 10
2023-12-05 @ Naestved D 2-259.9 1356 1389 29.36% 26.57% 44.07%-0.25 +0.4 11
2024-02-23 HB Koge L 0-144.2 1356 1369 37.48% 26.93% 35.58%-0.02 -7.4 11
2024-02-23 @ Helsingor W 1-044.2 1369 1356 35.58% 26.93% 37.48%+0.02 +7.4 17
2024-02-23 Hillerod D 4-472.4 1497 1475 42.51% 26.71% 30.78%+0.18 -0.2 32
2024-02-23 @ Vendsyssel D 4-472.4 1475 1497 30.78% 26.71% 42.51%-0.18 +0.2 24
2024-02-23 Kolding IF L 1-256.6 1486 1442 45.43% 26.43% 28.14%+0.31 -8.1 24
2024-02-23 @ Horsens W 2-156.6 1442 1486 28.14% 26.43% 45.43%-0.31 +8.1 28
2024-02-24 Naestved D 0-051.8 1431 1389 45.20% 26.45% 28.34%+0.30 -0.8 21
2024-02-24 @ B.93 D 0-051.8 1389 1431 28.34% 26.45% 45.20%-0.30 +0.8 11
2024-02-24 Sonderjyske D 2-274.7 1635 1618 41.88% 26.76% 31.36%+0.16 -0.3 42
2024-02-24 @ Aalborg D 2-274.7 1618 1635 31.36% 26.76% 41.88%-0.16 +0.3 43
2024-02-25 Fredericia L 0-248.4 1488 1506 36.82% 26.94% 36.24%-0.05 -13.8 31
2024-02-25 @ Hobro W 2-048.4 1506 1488 36.24% 26.94% 36.82%+0.05 +13.8 33
2024-03-01 Aalborg L 2-363.3 1520 1635 24.63% 25.81% 49.56%-0.62 -4.8 33
2024-03-01 @ Fredericia W 3-263.3 1635 1520 49.56% 25.81% 24.63%+0.62 +4.8 45
2024-03-01 Helsingor W 4-246.7 1475 1349 55.74% 24.39% 19.86%+0.79 +6.4 27
2024-03-01 @ Hillerod L 2-446.7 1349 1475 19.86% 24.39% 55.74%-0.79 -6.4 11
2024-03-02 HB Koge W 3-144.8 1430 1377 46.73% 26.26% 27.01%+0.37 +9.4 24
2024-03-02 @ B.93 L 1-344.8 1377 1430 27.01% 26.26% 46.73%-0.37 -9.4 17
2024-03-02 Hobro W 3-151.5 1450 1474 35.93% 26.94% 37.13%-0.09 +12.1 31
2024-03-02 @ Kolding IF L 1-351.5 1474 1450 37.13% 26.94% 35.93%+0.09 -12.0 31
2024-03-02 Vendsyssel L 0-355.4 1618 1497 55.16% 24.55% 20.29%+0.76 -27.7 43
2024-03-02 @ Sonderjyske W 3-055.4 1497 1618 20.29% 24.55% 55.16%-0.76 +27.7 35
2024-03-03 Horsens D 1-157.2 1390 1478 27.65% 26.36% 45.99%-0.46 +0.7 12
2024-03-03 @ Naestved D 1-157.2 1478 1390 45.99% 26.36% 27.65%+0.46 -0.7 25
2024-03-08 B.93 D 1-158.2 1462 1440 42.49% 26.71% 30.80%+0.18 -0.5 32
2024-03-08 @ Hobro D 1-158.2 1440 1462 30.80% 26.71% 42.49%-0.18 +0.4 25
2024-03-08 Hillerod L 0-436.9 1367 1481 24.78% 25.85% 49.37%-0.61 -19.2 17
2024-03-08 @ HB Koge W 4-036.9 1481 1367 49.37% 25.85% 24.78%+0.61 +19.2 30
2024-03-08 Kolding IF D 1-155.8 1342 1462 24.16% 25.70% 50.14%-0.65 +1.0 12
2024-03-08 @ Helsingor D 1-155.8 1462 1342 50.14% 25.70% 24.16%+0.65 -1.1 32
2024-03-09 Fredericia D 0-054.5 1391 1515 23.68% 25.59% 50.73%-0.67 +1.2 13
2024-03-09 @ Naestved D 0-054.5 1515 1391 50.73% 25.59% 23.68%+0.67 -1.2 34
2024-03-09 Sonderjyske L 1-450.3 1477 1590 24.85% 25.86% 49.29%-0.61 -12.4 25
2024-03-09 @ Horsens W 4-150.3 1590 1477 49.29% 25.86% 24.85%+0.61 +12.4 46
2024-03-10 Vendsyssel W 4-365.0 1640 1524 54.49% 24.73% 20.78%+0.73 +4.0 48
2024-03-10 @ Aalborg L 3-465.0 1524 1640 20.78% 24.73% 54.49%-0.73 -4.0 35
2024-03-16 Aalborg L 1-256.7 1500 1644 21.86% 25.08% 53.06%-0.78 -4.5 30
2024-03-16 @ Hillerod W 2-156.7 1644 1500 53.06% 25.08% 21.86%+0.78 +4.5 51
2024-03-16 HB Koge D 2-263.6 1514 1348 60.18% 22.99% 16.83%+1.02 -1.4 35
2024-03-16 @ Fredericia D 2-263.6 1348 1514 16.83% 22.99% 60.18%-1.02 +1.4 18
2024-03-16 Helsingor W 2-036.6 1603 1343 69.57% 19.02% 11.40%+1.56 +4.6 49
2024-03-16 @ Sonderjyske L 0-236.6 1343 1603 11.40% 19.02% 69.57%-1.56 -4.6 12
2024-03-16 Hobro D 1-161.2 1520 1462 47.40% 26.17% 26.44%+0.39 -0.8 36
2024-03-16 @ Vendsyssel D 1-161.2 1462 1520 26.44% 26.17% 47.40%-0.39 +0.8 33
2024-03-16 Horsens W 3-258.7 1440 1465 35.92% 26.94% 37.15%-0.09 +6.6 28
2024-03-16 @ B.93 L 2-358.7 1465 1440 37.15% 26.94% 35.92%+0.09 -6.6 25
2024-03-16 Naestved D 3-366.7 1461 1392 48.78% 25.95% 25.27%+0.46 -0.6 33
2024-03-16 @ Kolding IF D 3-366.7 1392 1461 25.27% 25.95% 48.78%-0.46 +0.6 14

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2024-03-30 Sonderjyske W 1-056.5 1648 1607 45.07% 26.47% 28.46%+0.29 +6.0 3
2024-03-30 @ Aalborg L 0-156.5 1607 1648 28.46% 26.47% 45.07%-0.29 -6.0 0
2024-03-31 Naestved L 1-345.0 1339 1392 31.90% 26.79% 41.31%-0.26 -10.8 0
2024-03-31 @ Helsingor W 3-145.0 1392 1339 41.31% 26.79% 31.90%+0.26 +10.8 3
2024-04-01 B.93 W 4-040.9 1496 1447 46.11% 26.34% 27.54%+0.34 +21.0 3
2024-04-01 @ Hillerod L 0-440.9 1447 1496 27.54% 26.34% 46.11%-0.34 -21.0 0
2024-04-01 Horsens W 5-043.5 1350 1458 25.36% 25.97% 48.67%-0.58 +40.2 3
2024-04-01 @ HB Koge L 0-543.5 1458 1350 48.67% 25.97% 25.36%+0.58 -40.2 0
2024-04-01 Kolding IF D 1-158.9 1463 1461 39.66% 26.88% 33.46%+0.06 -0.2 1
2024-04-01 @ Hobro D 1-158.9 1461 1463 33.46% 26.88% 39.66%-0.06 +0.2 1
2024-04-02 Vendsyssel W 3-154.7 1512 1520 38.36% 26.92% 34.72%+0.01 +11.5 3
2024-04-02 @ Fredericia L 1-354.7 1520 1512 34.72% 26.92% 38.36%-0.01 -11.5 0
2024-04-05 Helsingor D 2-260.4 1426 1328 52.38% 25.24% 22.38%+0.62 -0.9 1
2024-04-05 @ B.93 D 2-260.4 1328 1426 22.38% 25.24% 52.38%-0.62 +0.9 1
2024-04-05 Hillerod W 1-052.3 1418 1517 26.38% 26.15% 47.47%-0.53 +8.9 3
2024-04-05 @ Horsens L 0-152.3 1517 1418 47.47% 26.15% 26.38%+0.53 -8.9 3
2024-04-06 Fredericia W 4-047.1 1461 1524 30.67% 26.70% 42.63%-0.32 +29.3 4
2024-04-06 @ Kolding IF L 0-447.1 1524 1461 42.63% 26.70% 30.67%+0.32 -29.3 3
2024-04-06 Hobro W 2-044.6 1601 1462 57.21% 23.96% 18.82%+0.86 +7.9 3
2024-04-06 @ Sonderjyske L 0-244.6 1462 1601 18.82% 23.96% 57.21%-0.86 -7.9 1
2024-04-07 Aalborg D 2-273.2 1508 1654 21.59% 25.00% 53.41%-0.80 +1.0 1
2024-04-07 @ Vendsyssel D 2-273.2 1654 1508 53.41% 25.00% 21.59%+0.80 -1.0 4
2024-04-07 HB Koge W 2-148.8 1403 1390 41.25% 26.80% 31.95%+0.13 +6.2 6
2024-04-07 @ Naestved L 1-248.8 1390 1403 31.95% 26.80% 41.25%-0.13 -6.2 3
2024-04-12 Aalborg W 2-166.4 1454 1653 17.28% 23.23% 59.48%-1.11 +10.1 4
2024-04-12 @ Hobro L 1-266.4 1653 1454 59.48% 23.23% 17.28%+1.11 -10.1 4
2024-04-12 B.93 W 5-355.0 1384 1425 33.51% 26.88% 39.61%-0.19 +10.7 6
2024-04-12 @ HB Koge L 3-555.0 1425 1384 39.61% 26.88% 33.51%+0.19 -10.7 1
2024-04-12 Horsens L 0-243.1 1409 1427 36.89% 26.94% 36.17%-0.05 -13.9 6
2024-04-12 @ Naestved W 2-043.1 1427 1409 36.17% 26.94% 36.89%+0.05 +13.8 6
2024-04-13 Hillerod D 2-262.7 1329 1508 18.80% 23.95% 57.25%-0.99 +1.2 2
2024-04-13 @ Helsingor D 2-262.7 1508 1329 57.25% 23.95% 18.80%+0.99 -1.2 4
2024-04-13 Vendsyssel D 0-057.5 1490 1509 36.66% 26.94% 36.40%-0.06 -0.0 5
2024-04-13 @ Kolding IF D 0-057.5 1509 1490 36.40% 26.94% 36.66%+0.06 +0.0 2
2024-04-14 Sonderjyske L 0-248.3 1495 1609 24.71% 25.83% 49.46%-0.61 -10.1 3
2024-04-14 @ Fredericia W 2-048.3 1609 1495 49.46% 25.83% 24.71%+0.61 +10.1 6
2024-04-18 Vendsyssel D 0-062.6 1619 1509 53.84% 24.89% 21.26%+0.69 -1.5 7
2024-04-18 @ Sonderjyske D 0-062.6 1509 1619 21.26% 24.89% 53.84%-0.69 +1.5 3
2024-04-19 HB Koge D 1-158.7 1507 1394 54.14% 24.82% 21.04%+0.71 -1.4 5
2024-04-19 @ Hillerod D 1-158.7 1394 1507 21.04% 24.82% 54.14%-0.71 +1.4 7
2024-04-19 Helsingor D 1-155.3 1441 1330 53.89% 24.88% 21.23%+0.70 -1.3 7
2024-04-19 @ Horsens D 1-155.3 1330 1441 21.23% 24.88% 53.89%-0.70 +1.4 3
2024-04-19 Naestved W 2-040.7 1414 1395 42.03% 26.75% 31.23%+0.16 +12.2 4
2024-04-19 @ B.93 L 0-240.7 1395 1414 31.23% 26.75% 42.03%-0.16 -12.2 6
2024-04-20 Fredericia L 1-254.9 1465 1484 36.53% 26.94% 36.53%-0.06 -6.9 4
2024-04-20 @ Hobro W 2-154.9 1484 1465 36.53% 26.94% 36.53%+0.06 +6.9 6
2024-04-21 Kolding IF D 3-377.1 1643 1490 58.83% 23.45% 17.72%+0.95 -1.1 5
2024-04-21 @ Aalborg D 3-377.1 1490 1643 17.72% 23.45% 58.83%-0.95 +1.1 6
2024-04-25 Aalborg W 2-166.0 1491 1642 21.18% 24.87% 53.96%-0.83 +9.4 9
2024-04-25 @ Fredericia L 1-266.0 1642 1491 53.96% 24.87% 21.18%+0.83 -9.3 5
2024-04-26 Horsens L 0-147.3 1427 1439 37.58% 26.93% 35.49%-0.02 -7.4 4
2024-04-26 @ B.93 W 1-047.3 1439 1427 35.49% 26.93% 37.58%+0.02 +7.5 10
2024-04-26 Naestved D 0-054.3 1505 1383 55.28% 24.52% 20.20%+0.76 -1.6 6
2024-04-26 @ Hillerod D 0-054.3 1383 1505 20.20% 24.52% 55.28%-0.76 +1.6 7
2024-04-26 Sonderjyske L 0-346.0 1491 1618 23.48% 25.54% 50.98%-0.68 -14.0 6
2024-04-26 @ Kolding IF W 3-046.0 1618 1491 50.98% 25.54% 23.48%+0.68 +14.0 10
2024-04-28 HB Koge D 0-049.9 1331 1396 30.54% 26.69% 42.77%-0.32 +0.5 4
2024-04-28 @ Helsingor D 0-049.9 1396 1331 42.77% 26.69% 30.54%+0.32 -0.5 8
2024-04-28 Hobro W 3-149.9 1511 1458 46.63% 26.27% 27.09%+0.36 +9.5 6
2024-04-28 @ Vendsyssel L 1-349.9 1458 1511 27.09% 26.27% 46.63%-0.36 -9.5 4
2024-05-02 Fredericia W 2-155.4 1632 1501 56.31% 24.23% 19.46%+0.82 +4.1 13
2024-05-02 @ Sonderjyske L 1-255.4 1501 1632 19.46% 24.23% 56.31%-0.82 -4.1 9
2024-05-03 B.93 W 1-046.0 1385 1419 34.50% 26.91% 38.58%-0.15 +7.6 10
2024-05-03 @ Naestved L 0-146.0 1419 1385 38.58% 26.91% 34.50%+0.15 -7.6 4
2024-05-03 Kolding IF L 2-460.6 1520 1477 45.31% 26.44% 28.25%+0.30 -12.6 6
2024-05-03 @ Vendsyssel W 4-260.6 1477 1520 28.25% 26.44% 45.31%-0.30 +12.6 9
2024-05-05 Hillerod D 1-158.3 1395 1504 25.33% 25.96% 48.71%-0.58 +0.9 9
2024-05-05 @ HB Koge D 1-158.3 1504 1395 48.71% 25.96% 25.33%+0.58 -0.9 7
2024-05-05 Hobro L 2-371.2 1633 1448 62.22% 22.24% 15.54%+1.13 -10.0 5
2024-05-05 @ Aalborg W 3-271.2 1448 1633 15.54% 22.24% 62.22%-1.13 +10.0 7
2024-05-05 Horsens L 0-140.9 1332 1447 24.69% 25.83% 49.48%-0.62 -5.3 4
2024-05-05 @ Helsingor W 1-040.9 1447 1332 49.48% 25.83% 24.69%+0.62 +5.3 13
2024-05-10 HB Koge W 7-141.3 1412 1396 41.56% 26.78% 31.67%+0.14 +28.3 7
2024-05-10 @ B.93 L 1-741.3 1396 1412 31.67% 26.78% 41.56%-0.14 -28.3 9
2024-05-10 Helsingor W 3-248.8 1503 1327 61.33% 22.58% 16.10%+1.08 +3.2 10
2024-05-10 @ Hillerod L 2-348.8 1327 1503 16.10% 22.58% 61.33%-1.08 -3.2 4
2024-05-10 Naestved W 1-043.1 1452 1392 47.51% 26.15% 26.34%+0.40 +5.7 16
2024-05-10 @ Horsens L 0-143.1 1392 1452 26.34% 26.15% 47.51%-0.40 -5.7 10
2024-05-11 Aalborg W 1-057.7 1636 1623 41.18% 26.80% 32.02%+0.13 +6.6 16
2024-05-11 @ Sonderjyske L 0-157.7 1623 1636 32.02% 26.80% 41.18%-0.13 -6.6 5
2024-05-12 Kolding IF L 0-152.2 1497 1490 40.36% 26.85% 32.79%+0.09 -7.9 9
2024-05-12 @ Fredericia W 1-052.2 1490 1497 32.79% 26.85% 40.36%-0.09 +7.8 12
2024-05-13 Vendsyssel W 4-151.6 1458 1508 32.47% 26.83% 40.70%-0.23 +18.3 10
2024-05-13 @ Hobro L 1-451.6 1508 1458 40.70% 26.83% 32.47%+0.23 -18.3 6
2024-05-17 Fredericia W 1-049.5 1616 1489 55.91% 24.35% 19.75%+0.80 +4.4 8
2024-05-17 @ Aalborg L 0-149.5 1489 1616 19.75% 24.35% 55.91%-0.80 -4.4 9
2024-05-17 Hobro W 2-154.0 1498 1476 42.32% 26.72% 30.95%+0.18 +6.1 15
2024-05-17 @ Kolding IF L 1-254.0 1476 1498 30.95% 26.72% 42.32%-0.18 -6.1 10
2024-05-17 Sonderjyske D 0-062.7 1489 1642 20.97% 24.80% 54.23%-0.84 +1.5 7
2024-05-17 @ Vendsyssel D 0-062.7 1642 1489 54.23% 24.80% 20.97%+0.84 -1.5 17
2024-05-18 B.93 D 1-158.0 1458 1440 41.88% 26.76% 31.37%+0.16 -0.4 17
2024-05-18 @ Horsens D 1-158.0 1440 1458 31.37% 26.76% 41.88%-0.16 +0.4 8
2024-05-20 Helsingor W 3-143.2 1368 1323 45.48% 26.42% 28.10%+0.31 +9.7 12
2024-05-20 @ HB Koge L 1-343.2 1323 1368 28.10% 26.42% 45.48%-0.31 -9.7 4
2024-05-20 Hillerod L 1-346.2 1387 1506 24.22% 25.72% 50.06%-0.64 -8.6 10
2024-05-20 @ Naestved W 3-146.2 1506 1387 50.06% 25.72% 24.22%+0.64 +8.6 13
2024-05-24 Aalborg L 2-362.3 1504 1621 24.44% 25.77% 49.79%-0.63 -4.7 15
2024-05-24 @ Kolding IF W 3-262.3 1621 1504 49.79% 25.77% 24.44%+0.63 +4.7 11
2024-05-24 Fredericia L 1-451.8 1491 1484 40.27% 26.85% 32.88%+0.09 -18.1 7
2024-05-24 @ Vendsyssel W 4-151.8 1484 1491 32.88% 26.85% 40.27%-0.09 +18.1 12
2024-05-24 Horsens W 2-044.3 1515 1457 47.22% 26.19% 26.59%+0.39 +10.7 16
2024-05-24 @ Hillerod L 0-244.3 1457 1515 26.59% 26.19% 47.22%-0.39 -10.8 17
2024-05-24 Sonderjyske D 2-272.0 1470 1641 19.50% 24.25% 56.26%-0.94 +1.1 11
2024-05-24 @ Hobro D 2-272.0 1641 1470 56.26% 24.25% 19.50%+0.94 -1.1 18
2024-05-26 B.93 L 0-334.9 1314 1440 23.48% 25.54% 50.98%-0.68 -14.0 4
2024-05-26 @ Helsingor W 3-034.9 1440 1314 50.98% 25.54% 23.48%+0.68 +14.0 11
2024-05-26 Naestved W 1-043.5 1377 1378 39.27% 26.89% 33.84%+0.05 +6.9 15
2024-05-26 @ HB Koge L 0-143.5 1378 1377 33.84% 26.89% 39.27%-0.05 -6.9 10
2024-06-01 HB Koge D 1-156.3 1447 1384 47.85% 26.10% 26.05%+0.42 -0.9 18
2024-06-01 @ Horsens D 1-156.3 1384 1447 26.05% 26.10% 47.85%-0.42 +0.9 16
2024-06-01 Helsingor W 1-039.4 1371 1300 49.07% 25.90% 25.03%+0.47 +5.4 13
2024-06-01 @ Naestved L 0-139.4 1300 1371 25.03% 25.90% 49.07%-0.47 -5.4 4
2024-06-01 Hillerod L 1-351.1 1454 1525 29.67% 26.61% 43.72%-0.36 -10.2 11
2024-06-01 @ B.93 W 3-151.1 1525 1454 43.72% 26.61% 29.67%+0.36 +10.2 19
2024-06-02 Hobro L 0-152.7 1503 1472 43.69% 26.61% 29.70%+0.23 -8.3 12
2024-06-02 @ Fredericia W 1-052.7 1472 1503 29.70% 26.61% 43.69%-0.23 +8.4 14
2024-06-02 Kolding IF D 1-167.3 1640 1499 57.43% 23.90% 18.67%+0.87 -1.6 19
2024-06-02 @ Sonderjyske D 1-167.3 1499 1640 18.67% 23.90% 57.43%-0.87 +1.6 16
2024-06-02 Vendsyssel W 4-148.5 1625 1473 58.78% 23.47% 17.75%+0.94 +9.1 14
2024-06-02 @ Aalborg L 1-448.5 1473 1625 17.75% 23.47% 58.78%-0.94 -9.1 7

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2023-12-02 15.51% Hillerod 1454 2 @ Sonderjyske 1639 0
2 2024-05-05 15.54% Hobro 1448 3 @ Aalborg 1633 2
3 2023-11-26 16.29% Hobro 1470 2 @ Aalborg 1643 1
4 2023-11-23 17.19% B.93 1384 4 @ Fredericia 1545 0
5 2024-04-12 17.28% @ Hobro 1454 2 Aalborg 1653 1
6 2024-03-02 20.29% Vendsyssel 1497 3 @ Sonderjyske 1618 0
7 2024-04-25 21.18% @ Fredericia 1491 2 Aalborg 1642 1
8 2024-04-01 25.36% @ HB Koge 1350 5 Horsens 1458 0
9 2024-04-05 26.38% @ Horsens 1418 1 Hillerod 1517 0
10 2023-07-23 28.03% Hobro 1446 2 @ Fredericia 1491 0
11 2023-08-23 28.11% Hillerod 1412 6 @ Helsingor 1456 1
12 2024-02-23 28.14% Kolding IF 1442 2 @ Horsens 1486 1
13 2024-05-03 28.25% Kolding IF 1477 4 @ Vendsyssel 1520 2
14 2023-10-27 28.49% Hillerod 1447 3 @ Horsens 1488 1
15 2023-07-23 28.56% @ Kolding IF 1427 2 Horsens 1507 1
16 2023-08-19 28.92% @ Hillerod 1396 2 Vendsyssel 1473 0
17 2023-08-11 29.07% B.93 1448 7 @ HB Koge 1484 1
18 2023-10-08 29.09% @ Naestved 1396 1 Hobro 1472 0
19 2024-06-02 29.70% Hobro 1472 1 @ Fredericia 1503 0
20 2023-11-25 29.76% Kolding IF 1437 3 @ Hillerod 1467 1
21 2023-07-28 29.97% Fredericia 1475 3 @ Sonderjyske 1504 1
22 2023-10-01 30.06% Kolding IF 1451 3 @ Hobro 1479 2
23 2023-12-05 30.16% B.93 1423 1 @ Kolding IF 1450 0
24 2024-04-06 30.67% @ Kolding IF 1461 4 Fredericia 1524 0
25 2023-12-01 31.89% Hobro 1480 1 @ Horsens 1494 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-04-01 40.18 @ HB Koge 5 1350 25.36% Horsens 0 1458 48.67% 25.97%
2 2023-11-23 38.55 B.93 4 1384 17.19% @ Fredericia 0 1545 59.63% 23.18%
3 2023-08-11 36.55 B.93 7 1448 29.07% @ HB Koge 1 1484 44.39% 26.54%
4 2023-08-18 34.86 Fredericia 5 1475 32.48% @ B.93 0 1485 40.69% 26.83%
5 2023-08-26 33.45 Vendsyssel 5 1463 34.57% @ B.93 0 1457 38.52% 26.91%
6 2023-08-23 31.49 Hillerod 6 1412 28.11% @ Helsingor 1 1456 45.46% 26.42%
7 2023-08-12 30.38 @ Sonderjyske 5 1506 39.29% Horsens 0 1507 33.82% 26.89%
8 2024-04-06 29.32 @ Kolding IF 4 1461 30.67% Fredericia 0 1524 42.63% 26.70%
9 2024-05-10 28.31 @ B.93 7 1412 41.56% HB Koge 1 1396 31.67% 26.78%
10 2024-03-02 27.67 Vendsyssel 3 1497 20.29% @ Sonderjyske 0 1618 55.16% 24.55%
11 2023-07-21 25.96 HB Koge 4 1461 36.79% @ Hillerod 0 1439 36.28% 26.94%
12 2023-08-26 23.98 @ Kolding IF 4 1433 40.54% Helsingor 0 1424 32.62% 26.84%
13 2023-12-02 21.04 Hillerod 2 1454 15.51% @ Sonderjyske 0 1639 62.27% 22.22%
14 2024-04-01 20.99 @ Hillerod 4 1496 46.11% B.93 0 1447 27.54% 26.34%
15 2023-10-06 20.27 Hillerod 3 1426 35.80% @ B.93 0 1411 37.27% 26.93%
16 2024-03-08 19.21 Hillerod 4 1481 49.37% @ HB Koge 0 1367 24.78% 25.85%
17 2024-05-13 18.26 @ Hobro 4 1458 32.47% Vendsyssel 1 1508 40.70% 26.83%
18 2023-08-06 18.13 @ Aalborg 4 1578 51.34% Fredericia 0 1488 23.19% 25.47%
19 2024-05-24 18.12 Fredericia 4 1484 32.88% @ Vendsyssel 1 1491 40.27% 26.85%
20 2023-07-22 16.66 Aalborg 3 1556 44.67% @ B.93 0 1478 28.82% 26.51%
21 2023-08-23 16.63 @ Sonderjyske 4 1546 54.09% HB Koge 0 1434 21.07% 24.83%
22 2023-07-23 16.29 Hobro 2 1446 28.03% @ Fredericia 0 1491 45.55% 26.41%
23 2023-08-19 16.00 @ Hillerod 2 1396 28.92% Vendsyssel 0 1473 44.55% 26.52%
24 2023-10-20 15.87 @ Sonderjyske 4 1592 55.48% Kolding IF 0 1468 20.05% 24.47%
25 2023-08-06 15.83 Sonderjyske 4 1490 39.53% @ Naestved 1 1449 33.59% 26.88%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-04-21 77.1 @ Aalborg 3 1643 58.83% Kolding IF 3 1490 17.72% 23.45%
2 2024-02-24 74.7 @ Aalborg 2 1635 41.88% Sonderjyske 2 1618 31.36% 26.76%
3 2024-04-07 73.2 @ Vendsyssel 2 1508 21.59% Aalborg 2 1654 53.41% 25.00%
4 2024-02-23 72.4 @ Vendsyssel 4 1497 42.51% Hillerod 4 1475 30.78% 26.71%
5 2024-05-24 72.0 @ Hobro 2 1470 19.50% Sonderjyske 2 1641 56.26% 24.25%
6 2024-05-05 71.2 Hobro 3 1448 15.54% @ Aalborg 2 1633 62.22% 22.24%
7 2023-11-05 70.5 @ Aalborg 2 1647 71.05% Helsingor 2 1372 10.66% 18.29%
8 2023-10-28 69.0 @ Helsingor 3 1371 19.49% Fredericia 3 1541 56.27% 24.24%
9 2023-09-01 67.7 @ Hillerod 2 1432 22.58% Sonderjyske 2 1568 52.11% 25.30%
10 2023-09-15 67.6 @ Sonderjyske 1 1567 32.62% Aalborg 1 1615 40.55% 26.84%
11 2024-06-02 67.3 @ Sonderjyske 1 1640 57.43% Kolding IF 1 1499 18.67% 23.90%
12 2023-11-26 66.8 Hobro 2 1470 16.29% @ Aalborg 1 1643 61.02% 22.69%
13 2024-03-16 66.7 @ Kolding IF 3 1461 48.78% Naestved 3 1392 25.27% 25.95%
14 2024-04-12 66.4 @ Hobro 2 1454 17.28% Aalborg 1 1653 59.48% 23.23%
15 2024-04-25 66.0 @ Fredericia 2 1491 21.18% Aalborg 1 1642 53.96% 24.87%
16 2023-09-04 65.6 @ Naestved 3 1405 37.52% HB Koge 3 1418 35.55% 26.93%
17 2024-03-10 65.0 @ Aalborg 4 1640 54.49% Vendsyssel 3 1524 20.78% 24.73%
18 2023-11-12 64.8 @ Naestved 1 1394 13.88% Aalborg 1 1645 65.01% 21.11%
19 2023-08-11 64.4 @ Helsingor 1 1466 23.07% Aalborg 1 1596 51.50% 25.43%
20 2023-08-18 63.7 @ Aalborg 1 1595 60.53% Naestved 1 1426 16.60% 22.87%
21 2024-03-16 63.6 @ Fredericia 2 1514 60.18% HB Koge 2 1348 16.83% 22.99%
22 2024-03-01 63.3 Aalborg 3 1635 49.56% @ Fredericia 2 1520 24.63% 25.81%
23 2023-11-10 63.0 @ Horsens 1 1489 31.50% Fredericia 1 1545 41.73% 26.77%
24 2024-04-13 62.7 @ Helsingor 2 1329 18.80% Hillerod 2 1508 57.25% 23.95%
25 2024-05-17 62.7 @ Vendsyssel 0 1489 20.97% Sonderjyske 0 1642 54.23% 24.80%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-05-26 34.9 B.93 3 1440 50.98% @ Helsingor 0 1314 23.48% 25.54%
2 2024-03-16 36.6 @ Sonderjyske 2 1603 69.57% Helsingor 0 1343 11.40% 19.02%
3 2024-03-08 36.9 Hillerod 4 1481 49.37% @ HB Koge 0 1367 24.78% 25.85%
4 2023-10-27 38.2 Sonderjyske 4 1608 61.69% @ B.93 0 1389 15.87% 22.44%
5 2023-11-26 38.9 @ Vendsyssel 2 1488 53.42% HB Koge 0 1381 21.58% 25.00%
6 2023-09-30 39.4 @ Sonderjyske 4 1571 57.94% B.93 0 1426 18.32% 23.74%
7 2024-06-01 39.4 @ Naestved 1 1371 49.07% Helsingor 0 1300 25.03% 25.90%
8 2023-08-25 39.7 @ Horsens 3 1475 46.80% Naestved 0 1421 26.95% 26.25%
9 2023-08-26 39.8 @ Kolding IF 4 1433 40.54% Helsingor 0 1424 32.62% 26.84%
10 2023-08-23 39.9 @ Sonderjyske 4 1546 54.09% HB Koge 0 1434 21.07% 24.83%
11 2023-11-10 40.3 @ B.93 2 1371 39.06% Helsingor 0 1374 34.04% 26.90%
12 2024-04-19 40.7 @ B.93 2 1414 42.03% Naestved 0 1395 31.23% 26.75%
13 2024-04-01 40.9 @ Hillerod 4 1496 46.11% B.93 0 1447 27.54% 26.34%
14 2024-05-05 40.9 Horsens 1 1447 49.48% @ Helsingor 0 1332 24.69% 25.83%
15 2023-09-22 41.2 @ Aalborg 2 1615 64.21% HB Koge 0 1411 14.34% 21.45%
16 2023-08-27 41.3 @ Aalborg 3 1598 59.04% Hillerod 0 1443 17.58% 23.38%
17 2023-10-06 41.3 Hillerod 3 1426 35.80% @ B.93 0 1411 37.27% 26.93%
18 2024-05-10 41.3 @ B.93 7 1412 41.56% HB Koge 1 1396 31.67% 26.78%
19 2023-10-20 41.8 @ Hobro 1 1464 51.12% Helsingor 0 1376 23.37% 25.51%
20 2023-11-04 41.8 @ Vendsyssel 1 1476 52.58% B.93 0 1376 22.22% 25.20%
21 2023-07-21 42.2 HB Koge 4 1461 36.79% @ Hillerod 0 1439 36.28% 26.94%
22 2023-10-20 42.4 @ Sonderjyske 4 1592 55.48% Kolding IF 0 1468 20.05% 24.47%
23 2024-04-12 43.1 Horsens 2 1427 36.17% @ Naestved 0 1409 36.89% 26.94%
24 2024-05-10 43.1 @ Horsens 1 1452 47.51% Naestved 0 1392 26.34% 26.15%
25 2024-05-20 43.2 @ HB Koge 3 1368 45.48% Helsingor 1 1323 28.10% 26.42%