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2024-25 1st Division Season

192 games

Final

Promoted

Odense

65 pts

Fredericia · 64 pts

Relegated

FC Roskilde

26 pts

Vendsyssel · 30 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fredericia

28.93 points above expected

64 points · 35.07 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vendsyssel

2.08 points above expected

30 points · 27.92 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Odense 22 14 7 1 49 48 22 +26 41.12 +7.88
2 Fredericia 22 13 1 8 40 44 26 +18 35.07 +4.93
3 Horsens 22 12 4 6 40 38 29 +9 30.45 +9.55
4 Hvidovre 22 10 6 6 36 25 19 +6 32.39 +3.61
5 Kolding IF 22 9 7 6 34 21 13 +8 32.32 +1.68
6 Esbjerg 22 11 1 10 34 40 35 +5 27.24 +6.76
7 Hillerod 22 8 8 6 32 34 28 +6 32.28 -0.28
8 Hobro 22 7 5 10 26 30 38 -8 28.89 -2.89
9 B.93 22 6 5 11 23 25 43 -18 26.50 -3.50
10 HB Koge 22 6 4 12 22 25 41 -16 22.80 -0.80
11 Vendsyssel 22 5 5 12 20 25 37 -12 27.92 -7.92
12 FC Roskilde 22 4 1 17 13 19 43 -24 22.14 -9.14
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Odense Promoted 32 18 11 3 65 69 35 +34 — —
2 Fredericia Promoted 32 20 4 8 64 65 30 +35 — —
3 Horsens 32 15 6 11 51 49 48 +1 — —
4 Kolding IF 32 14 8 10 50 36 28 +8 — —
5 Hvidovre 32 12 9 11 45 33 35 -2 — —
6 Esbjerg 32 13 2 17 41 52 56 -4 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hillerod 32 14 10 8 52 56 38 +18 — —
2 Hobro 32 10 9 13 39 39 51 -12 — —
3 B.93 32 9 8 15 35 42 61 -19 — —
4 HB Koge 32 9 7 16 34 36 57 -21 — —
5 Vendsyssel Relegated 32 7 9 16 30 35 49 -14 — —
6 FC Roskilde Relegated 32 7 5 20 26 37 61 -24 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fredericia 64 35.07 +28.93
2 Odense 65 41.12 +23.88
3 Horsens 51 30.45 +20.55
4 Hillerod 52 32.28 +19.72
5 Kolding IF 50 32.32 +17.68

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vendsyssel 30 27.92 +2.08
2 FC Roskilde 26 22.14 +3.86
3 B.93 35 26.50 +8.50
4 Hobro 39 28.89 +10.11
5 HB Koge 34 22.80 +11.20

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Odense 8 Jul 20 – Aug 30 1 in 299
2 Esbjerg 5 Aug 17 – Sep 15 1 in 246
3 HB Koge 3 Sep 29 – Oct 18 1 in 170
4 Kolding IF 4 Apr 21 – May 10 1 in 45
5 Fredericia 4 Mar 14 – Apr 10 1 in 42

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HB Koge 8 Jul 19 – Sep 1 1 in 543
2 FC Roskilde 6 Jul 19 – Aug 20 1 in 181
3 Fredericia 3 Feb 23 – Mar 7 1 in 108
4 B.93 4 Oct 25 – Nov 22 1 in 65
5 Vendsyssel 4 Feb 21 – Mar 14 1 in 43

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fredericia 11 Mar 14 – May 23 1 in 48
2 B.93 6 Mar 7 – Apr 17 1 in 30
3 Hillerod 8 Dec 2 – Apr 13 1 in 20
4 Odense 11 Jul 20 – Sep 27 1 in 18
5 Esbjerg 5 Aug 17 – Sep 15 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Odense 6 Nov 25 – Mar 14 1 in 164
2 Vendsyssel 8 Feb 21 – Apr 16 1 in 25
3 HB Koge 10 Jul 19 – Sep 20 1 in 20
4 FC Roskilde 8 Jul 19 – Aug 30 1 in 16
5 Hobro 6 Mar 2 – Apr 11 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Odense 1629 65 +0 7 9.3 -2.3
Fredericia 1611 64 +34 11 8.4 +2.6
Hillerod 1532 52 +6 10 9.7 +0.3
Horsens 1468 51 -14 5 6.2 -1.2
Kolding IF 1517 50 +10 10 6.4 +3.6
Hvidovre 1465 45 -30 2 6.0 -4.0
Esbjerg 1420 41 +1 4 4.7 -0.7
Hobro 1407 39 -34 5 6.7 -1.7
B.93 1384 35 -1 4 6.9 -2.9
HB Koge 1365 34 +7 9 5.7 +3.3
Vendsyssel 1393 30 -8 4 6.4 -2.4
FC Roskilde 1370 26 +31 10 5.6 +4.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team B.9 ESB FR FRE HK HIL HOB HOR HVI KI ODE VEN
B.93 —
0-0-2
2.88
2-0-2
6.07
0-0-2
2.01
1-2-1
5.77
1-2-1
3.89
2-1-1
4.77
1-0-1
2.48
1-0-1
2.10
0-1-1
2.26
0-1-1
1.55
1-1-2
5.42
Esbjerg
2-0-0
2.54
—
2-0-0
3.15
0-1-3
3.92
2-0-0
3.13
1-1-0
2.42
2-0-0
2.47
0-0-4
4.72
2-0-2
4.59
1-0-3
4.48
0-0-4
3.32
1-0-1
2.51
FC Roskilde
2-0-2
4.81
0-0-2
2.30
—
0-0-2
1.58
0-1-3
5.45
1-0-3
3.36
0-2-2
4.39
1-0-1
2.00
1-0-1
1.80
0-1-1
1.87
0-0-2
1.34
2-1-1
4.58
Fredericia
2-0-0
3.43
3-1-0
7.02
2-0-0
3.92
—
1-0-1
3.90
1-0-1
2.89
1-1-0
3.13
3-0-1
6.33
1-1-2
6.32
3-0-1
6.05
1-1-2
4.54
2-0-0
3.29
HB Koge
1-2-1
5.06
0-0-2
2.31
3-1-0
5.42
1-0-1
1.62
—
0-0-4
3.74
1-0-3
4.51
0-1-1
2.20
1-0-1
2.06
0-1-1
1.84
1-0-1
1.56
1-2-1
4.77
Hillerod
1-2-1
7.06
0-1-1
3.01
3-0-1
7.62
1-0-1
2.56
4-0-0
7.23
—
1-3-0
6.50
1-0-1
2.86
1-1-0
2.61
0-0-2
2.75
0-1-1
1.99
2-2-0
6.62
Hobro
1-1-2
6.08
0-0-2
2.98
2-2-0
6.51
0-1-1
2.29
3-0-1
6.35
0-3-1
4.38
—
0-0-2
2.61
0-1-1
2.42
1-0-1
2.35
0-1-1
1.83
3-0-1
5.64
Horsens
1-0-1
2.96
4-0-0
6.14
1-0-1
3.48
1-0-3
4.54
1-1-0
3.24
1-0-1
2.55
2-0-0
2.81
—
2-2-0
5.26
1-0-3
5.18
0-2-2
3.54
1-1-0
2.99
Hvidovre
1-0-1
3.33
2-0-2
6.28
1-0-1
3.68
2-1-1
4.54
1-0-1
3.38
0-1-1
2.81
1-1-0
3.01
0-2-2
5.60
—
1-2-1
5.32
1-2-1
3.76
2-0-0
3.21
Kolding IF
1-1-0
3.20
3-0-1
6.42
1-1-0
3.59
1-0-3
4.83
1-1-0
3.65
2-0-0
2.68
1-0-1
3.10
3-0-1
5.66
1-2-1
5.54
—
0-2-2
3.80
0-1-1
3.07
Odense
1-1-0
3.99
4-0-0
7.70
2-0-0
4.22
2-1-1
6.33
1-0-1
4.00
1-1-0
3.45
1-1-0
3.67
2-2-0
7.41
1-2-1
7.16
2-2-0
7.14
—
1-1-0
4.01
Vendsyssel
2-1-1
5.43
1-0-1
2.90
1-1-2
6.28
0-0-2
2.14
1-2-1
6.09
0-2-2
4.29
1-0-3
5.21
0-1-1
2.43
0-0-2
2.23
1-1-0
2.38
0-1-1
1.51
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.64 +8.1
Allowed 0.64 -8.3
Differential 0.93 +6.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.81%8.07%6.51%3.91%1.30%0.78%28.39%
18.07%10.42%7.03%2.86%1.30%1.04%30.73%
26.51%7.03%3.65%2.34%1.30%0.52%21.35%
33.91%2.86%2.34%1.04%1.30%0.26%11.72%
41.30%1.30%1.30%1.30%——5.21%
5+0.78%1.04%0.52%0.26%——2.60%
Total28.39%30.73%21.35%11.72%5.21%2.60%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.43 +0.00
SD 1.31 1.31 1.87
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%3.12%3.12%9.38%6.25%3.12%34.38%
19.38%6.25%9.38%6.25%——31.25%
2—6.25%6.25%——3.12%15.62%
3——3.12%3.12%3.12%—9.38%
43.12%—3.12%———6.25%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total25.00%15.62%25.00%18.75%9.38%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.91 -0.59
SD 1.38 1.53 2.20
CV 1.05 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%6.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%28.12%
1—6.25%15.62%———21.88%
29.38%9.38%—6.25%3.12%—28.12%
33.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
43.12%3.12%—3.12%——9.38%
5+———3.12%——3.12%
Total15.62%34.38%25.00%15.62%6.25%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.75 -0.12
SD 1.50 1.37 2.18
CV 0.92 0.78 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%3.12%18.75%3.12%——31.25%
13.12%9.38%15.62%—3.12%3.12%34.38%
26.25%6.25%—9.38%—3.12%25.00%
3—3.12%——3.12%—6.25%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total15.62%21.88%37.50%12.50%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.91 -0.75
SD 1.05 1.35 1.59
CV 0.91 0.71 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%3.12%3.12%——18.75%
112.50%9.38%6.25%—3.12%—31.25%
29.38%—————9.38%
312.50%3.12%3.12%———18.75%
43.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
5+3.12%6.25%————9.38%
Total43.75%31.25%15.62%6.25%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 0.94 +1.09
SD 1.64 1.08 2.07
CV 0.81 1.15 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%15.62%3.12%6.25%—37.50%
16.25%12.50%6.25%—3.12%3.12%31.25%
23.12%9.38%3.12%—3.12%—18.75%
33.12%———3.12%—6.25%
4—3.12%—3.12%——6.25%
5+———————
Total18.75%31.25%25.00%6.25%15.62%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.78 -0.66
SD 1.18 1.43 1.88
CV 1.05 0.80 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%—6.25%——25.00%
13.12%9.38%3.12%3.12%——18.75%
215.62%3.12%9.38%3.12%3.12%—34.38%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+—3.12%6.25%———9.38%
Total37.50%25.00%21.88%12.50%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.19 +0.56
SD 1.50 1.18 1.81
CV 0.86 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%9.38%3.12%—3.12%31.25%
16.25%15.62%—3.12%6.25%—31.25%
26.25%9.38%6.25%3.12%——25.00%
33.12%3.12%———3.12%9.38%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total21.88%40.62%15.62%9.38%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.59 -0.38
SD 1.10 1.52 1.90
CV 0.90 0.95 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%6.25%3.12%——21.88%
19.38%6.25%3.12%3.12%—3.12%25.00%
26.25%15.62%6.25%6.25%——34.38%
33.12%3.12%6.25%3.12%——15.62%
4———3.12%——3.12%
5+———————
Total21.88%34.38%21.88%18.75%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.50 +0.03
SD 1.11 1.22 1.56
CV 0.72 0.81 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%12.50%9.38%3.12%——40.62%
118.75%9.38%3.12%——3.12%34.38%
23.12%3.12%——3.12%—9.38%
3—6.25%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total40.62%31.25%15.62%6.25%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.09 -0.06
SD 1.15 1.28 1.63
CV 1.11 1.17 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%9.38%3.12%———28.12%
121.88%9.38%12.50%3.12%——46.88%
23.12%6.25%————9.38%
36.25%3.12%3.12%—3.12%—15.62%
4———————
5+———————
Total46.88%28.12%18.75%3.12%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 0.88 +0.25
SD 1.01 1.04 1.27
CV 0.90 1.19 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%—3.12%——9.38%
16.25%21.88%3.12%———31.25%
26.25%9.38%6.25%———21.88%
36.25%3.12%6.25%3.12%——18.75%
43.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
5+3.12%3.12%————6.25%
Total28.12%43.75%18.75%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.16 1.09 +1.06
SD 1.48 0.93 1.74
CV 0.69 0.85 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%3.12%6.25%——34.38%
1—9.38%6.25%15.62%——31.25%
29.38%6.25%6.25%—3.12%—25.00%
33.12%3.12%——3.12%—9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%31.25%15.62%21.88%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.53 -0.44
SD 1.00 1.27 1.54
CV 0.91 0.83 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Odense 1629 65 41.12 +23.88 96.0% 26 29 37 41 45 49 54
Fredericia 1611 64 35.07 +28.93 84.0% 22 25 31 35 39 45 49
Hillerod 1532 52 32.28 +19.72 51.0% 20 23 28 32 36 42 44
Kolding IF 1517 50 32.32 +17.68 64.0% 18 23 28 33 37 42 46
Horsens 1468 51 30.45 +20.55 93.0% 17 21 25 31 35 42 44
Hvidovre 1465 45 32.39 +12.61 76.0% 14 21 29 32 36 42 46
Esbjerg 1420 41 27.24 +13.76 91.0% 13 18 24 27 31 36 39
Hobro 1407 39 28.89 +10.11 37.0% 16 20 25 28 32 38 50
Vendsyssel 1393 30 27.92 +2.08 12.0% 7 19 24 28 32 39 43
B.93 1384 35 26.50 +8.50 30.0% 16 17 22 26 31 35 38
FC Roskilde 1370 26 22.14 +3.86 4.0% 12 14 18 22 26 31 35
HB Koge 1365 34 22.80 +11.20 53.0% 5 13 18 22 28 33 36

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.21%
No Edge
41.15%22.92%35.94%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 18.11 Elo pts.
155 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.06 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
57%
Odense, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.67 * Some Luck: 4.67 to 7 * Lucky: 7 to 9.33 * Wild Swing: 9.33 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.8 * Close: 1.8 to 2.71 * Off: 2.71 to 3.61 * Way Off: 3.61 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 2 * A Surprise: 2 to 3.2 * Several Surprises: 3.2 to 4.4 * Many Surprises: 4.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.76 points
Some Luck
05.8315
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Pinpoint
02.265
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
96.00%
Odense
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
4.00%
FC Roskilde
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 2.0
2 of 2
A Surprise
02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 78.86
1.66
Moderate Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Even
50%83%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Occasional
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.02
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.70
Strong Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.46
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.25
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.125
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1160.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Odense57.00%18.00%12.00%4.00%5.00%—2.00%2.00%————
Fredericia12.00%20.00%18.00%16.00%9.00%7.00%10.00%1.00%5.00%2.00%——
Hillerod7.00%10.00%15.00%13.00%15.00%5.00%10.00%12.00%7.00%2.00%3.00%1.00%
Horsens7.00%9.00%6.00%11.00%11.00%13.00%7.00%12.00%6.00%10.00%6.00%2.00%
Kolding IF5.00%16.00%14.00%11.00%11.00%9.00%10.00%7.00%9.00%4.00%4.00%—
Hvidovre8.00%11.00%13.00%15.00%12.00%7.00%14.00%6.00%6.00%3.00%3.00%2.00%
Esbjerg—2.00%4.00%8.00%7.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%16.00%12.00%10.00%6.00%
Hobro1.00%6.00%10.00%4.00%8.00%17.00%7.00%13.00%15.00%10.00%4.00%5.00%
B.931.00%1.00%6.00%4.00%4.00%12.00%11.00%10.00%11.00%17.00%8.00%15.00%
HB Koge——1.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%5.00%7.00%5.00%10.00%24.00%30.00%
Vendsyssel2.00%7.00%1.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%9.00%14.00%14.00%9.00%12.00%8.00%
FC Roskilde———1.00%4.00%4.00%3.00%4.00%6.00%21.00%26.00%31.00%
Team123456789101112
Odense————————————
Fredericia————————————
Hillerod————————————
Horsens————————————
Kolding IF————————————
Hvidovre————————————
Esbjerg————————————
Hobro————————————
B.93————————————
HB Koge————————————
Vendsyssel————————————
FC Roskilde————————————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for Championship Round
B.93 28.00% 72.00%
Esbjerg 32.00% 68.00%
FC Roskilde 9.00% 91.00%
Fredericia 82.00% 18.00%
HB Koge 19.00% 81.00%
Hillerod 65.00% 35.00%
Hobro 46.00% 54.00%
Horsens 57.00% 43.00%
Hvidovre 66.00% 34.00%
Kolding IF 66.00% 34.00%
Odense 96.00% 4.00%
Vendsyssel 34.00% 66.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for Championship Round
B.93 — 100%
Esbjerg 100% —
FC Roskilde — 100%
Fredericia 100% —
HB Koge — 100%
Hillerod — 100%
Hobro — 100%
Horsens 100% —
Hvidovre 100% —
Kolding IF 100% —
Odense 100% —
Vendsyssel — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2024-07-19 FC Roskilde W 3-038.5 1461 1433 48.22% 28.05% 23.73%+0.30 +13.0 3
2024-07-19 @ Vendsyssel L 0-338.5 1433 1461 23.73% 28.05% 48.22%-0.30 -13.0 0
2024-07-19 HB Koge W 1-044.0 1485 1422 52.69% 26.72% 20.59%+0.52 +4.2 3
2024-07-19 @ Hvidovre L 0-144.0 1422 1485 20.59% 26.72% 52.69%-0.52 -4.2 0
2024-07-19 Kolding IF D 0-055.3 1451 1479 40.59% 29.41% 30.01%-0.06 -0.4 1
2024-07-19 @ B.93 D 0-055.3 1479 1451 30.01% 29.41% 40.59%+0.06 +0.4 1
2024-07-20 Odense L 1-252.7 1402 1533 26.74% 28.87% 44.39%-0.73 -5.0 0
2024-07-20 @ Esbjerg W 2-152.7 1533 1402 44.39% 28.87% 26.74%+0.73 +5.0 3
2024-07-21 Fredericia L 1-353.2 1452 1476 41.13% 29.35% 29.52%-0.04 -11.9 0
2024-07-21 @ Horsens W 3-153.2 1476 1452 29.52% 29.35% 41.13%+0.04 +11.9 3
2024-07-21 Hobro D 2-266.8 1496 1469 48.12% 28.07% 23.81%+0.29 -0.6 1
2024-07-21 @ Hillerod D 2-266.8 1469 1496 23.81% 28.07% 48.12%-0.29 +0.7 1
2024-07-26 Esbjerg L 3-655.1 1470 1397 53.90% 26.29% 19.81%+0.58 -16.5 1
2024-07-26 @ Hobro W 6-355.1 1397 1470 19.81% 26.29% 53.90%-0.58 +16.5 3
2024-07-26 Hillerod W 3-260.0 1440 1496 36.65% 29.66% 33.69%-0.24 +5.6 3
2024-07-26 @ Horsens L 2-360.0 1496 1440 33.69% 29.66% 36.65%+0.24 -5.6 1
2024-07-26 Hvidovre D 0-056.8 1479 1489 43.09% 29.09% 27.82%+0.05 -0.6 2
2024-07-26 @ Kolding IF D 0-056.8 1489 1479 27.82% 29.09% 43.09%-0.05 +0.6 4
2024-07-26 Odense L 0-441.7 1418 1538 28.01% 29.12% 42.87%-0.66 -19.6 0
2024-07-26 @ HB Koge W 4-041.7 1538 1418 42.87% 29.12% 28.01%+0.66 +19.6 6
2024-07-27 B.93 L 1-254.7 1420 1451 40.09% 29.45% 30.45%-0.09 -6.7 0
2024-07-27 @ FC Roskilde W 2-154.7 1451 1420 30.45% 29.45% 40.09%+0.09 +6.7 4
2024-07-27 Vendsyssel W 4-253.4 1488 1474 46.32% 28.49% 25.19%+0.21 +7.3 6
2024-07-27 @ Fredericia L 2-453.4 1474 1488 25.19% 28.49% 46.32%-0.21 -7.3 3
2024-08-02 FC Roskilde W 2-039.4 1490 1413 54.48% 26.08% 19.44%+0.62 +7.5 4
2024-08-02 @ Hillerod L 0-239.4 1413 1490 19.44% 26.08% 54.48%-0.62 -7.5 0
2024-08-02 Fredericia W 1-049.5 1479 1495 42.20% 29.22% 28.59%+0.01 +5.6 5
2024-08-02 @ Kolding IF L 0-149.5 1495 1479 28.59% 29.22% 42.20%-0.01 -5.6 6
2024-08-02 HB Koge W 2-147.8 1453 1398 51.64% 27.07% 21.30%+0.47 +4.1 4
2024-08-02 @ Hobro L 1-247.8 1398 1453 21.30% 27.07% 51.64%-0.47 -4.1 0
2024-08-02 Vendsyssel L 1-257.3 1458 1467 43.20% 29.07% 27.73%+0.06 -7.1 4
2024-08-02 @ B.93 W 2-157.3 1467 1458 27.73% 29.07% 43.20%-0.06 +7.1 6
2024-08-03 Hvidovre W 2-045.0 1558 1490 53.36% 26.48% 20.15%+0.56 +7.7 9
2024-08-03 @ Odense L 0-245.0 1490 1558 20.15% 26.48% 53.36%-0.56 -7.7 4
2024-08-04 Horsens L 0-149.1 1414 1446 39.97% 29.47% 30.56%-0.09 -7.1 3
2024-08-04 @ Esbjerg W 1-049.1 1446 1414 30.56% 29.47% 39.97%+0.09 +7.1 6
2024-08-09 B.93 W 4-039.1 1482 1450 48.68% 27.93% 23.39%+0.32 +16.8 7
2024-08-09 @ Hvidovre L 0-439.1 1450 1482 23.39% 27.93% 48.68%-0.32 -16.8 4
2024-08-10 Hillerod W 1-049.4 1566 1497 53.37% 26.48% 20.15%+0.56 +4.1 12
2024-08-10 @ Odense L 0-149.4 1497 1566 20.15% 26.48% 53.37%-0.56 -4.1 4
2024-08-10 Hobro L 0-244.5 1405 1457 37.20% 29.64% 33.16%-0.22 -12.7 0
2024-08-10 @ FC Roskilde W 2-044.5 1457 1405 33.16% 29.64% 37.20%+0.22 +12.7 7
2024-08-10 Kolding IF W 2-153.9 1474 1484 42.96% 29.11% 27.93%+0.05 +5.2 9
2024-08-10 @ Vendsyssel L 1-253.9 1484 1474 27.93% 29.11% 42.96%-0.05 -5.1 5
2024-08-11 Esbjerg W 4-035.9 1490 1406 55.21% 25.80% 18.99%+0.65 +13.8 9
2024-08-11 @ Fredericia L 0-435.9 1406 1490 18.99% 25.80% 55.21%-0.65 -13.8 3
2024-08-11 Horsens L 0-243.8 1394 1453 36.23% 29.67% 34.10%-0.26 -12.5 0
2024-08-11 @ HB Koge W 2-043.8 1453 1394 34.10% 29.67% 36.23%+0.26 +12.5 9
2024-08-16 FC Roskilde W 3-252.1 1503 1393 58.54% 24.42% 17.04%+0.83 +3.1 12
2024-08-16 @ Fredericia L 2-352.1 1393 1503 17.04% 24.42% 58.54%-0.83 -3.1 0
2024-08-16 HB Koge W 4-246.7 1493 1382 58.63% 24.38% 16.99%+0.84 +5.0 7
2024-08-16 @ Hillerod L 2-446.7 1382 1493 16.99% 24.38% 58.63%-0.84 -5.0 0
2024-08-16 Kolding IF L 0-152.6 1465 1479 42.52% 29.17% 28.31%+0.03 -7.4 9
2024-08-16 @ Horsens W 1-052.6 1479 1465 28.31% 29.17% 42.52%-0.03 +7.4 8
2024-08-16 Odense L 1-351.3 1434 1570 26.21% 28.75% 45.03%-0.76 -8.5 4
2024-08-16 @ B.93 W 3-151.3 1570 1434 45.03% 28.75% 26.21%+0.76 +8.5 15
2024-08-17 Hvidovre D 1-161.0 1470 1499 40.39% 29.43% 30.18%-0.07 -0.4 8
2024-08-17 @ Hobro D 1-161.0 1499 1470 30.18% 29.43% 40.39%+0.07 +0.4 8
2024-08-17 Vendsyssel W 3-150.5 1393 1479 32.34% 29.61% 38.05%-0.44 +11.2 6
2024-08-17 @ Esbjerg L 1-350.5 1479 1393 38.05% 29.61% 32.34%+0.44 -11.2 9
2024-08-20 B.93 L 0-440.1 1377 1425 37.69% 29.62% 32.69%-0.19 -24.4 0
2024-08-20 @ HB Koge W 4-040.1 1425 1377 32.69% 29.62% 37.69%+0.19 +24.4 7
2024-08-20 Hillerod D 0-057.9 1499 1498 44.56% 28.84% 26.60%+0.12 -0.7 9
2024-08-20 @ Hvidovre D 0-057.9 1498 1499 26.60% 28.84% 44.56%-0.12 +0.7 8
2024-08-20 Horsens L 1-252.6 1390 1458 34.81% 29.68% 35.51%-0.32 -6.1 0
2024-08-20 @ FC Roskilde W 2-152.6 1458 1390 35.51% 29.68% 34.81%+0.32 +6.1 12
2024-08-21 Esbjerg L 1-258.8 1487 1404 55.18% 25.81% 19.01%+0.65 -8.6 8
2024-08-21 @ Kolding IF W 2-158.8 1404 1487 19.01% 25.81% 55.18%-0.65 +8.6 9
2024-08-21 Fredericia W 3-043.6 1578 1506 53.82% 26.32% 19.86%+0.58 +11.0 18
2024-08-21 @ Odense L 0-343.6 1506 1578 19.86% 26.32% 53.82%-0.58 -11.1 12
2024-08-21 Hobro L 0-346.3 1468 1469 44.18% 28.91% 26.91%+0.11 -21.0 9
2024-08-21 @ Vendsyssel W 3-046.3 1469 1468 26.91% 28.91% 44.18%-0.11 +21.0 11
2024-08-23 Hillerod D 0-055.9 1449 1499 37.50% 29.63% 32.87%-0.20 -0.2 8
2024-08-23 @ B.93 D 0-055.9 1499 1449 32.87% 29.63% 37.50%+0.20 +0.2 9
2024-08-24 FC Roskilde D 0-054.3 1478 1383 56.61% 25.24% 18.14%+0.73 -1.6 9
2024-08-24 @ Kolding IF D 0-054.3 1383 1478 18.14% 25.24% 56.61%-0.73 +1.6 1
2024-08-24 HB Koge W 4-139.0 1412 1352 52.32% 26.84% 20.84%+0.50 +9.8 12
2024-08-24 @ Esbjerg L 1-439.0 1352 1412 20.84% 26.84% 52.32%-0.50 -9.8 0
2024-08-24 Vendsyssel D 1-159.3 1464 1447 46.78% 28.39% 24.83%+0.23 -0.8 13
2024-08-24 @ Horsens D 1-159.3 1447 1464 24.83% 28.39% 46.78%-0.23 +0.8 10
2024-08-25 Hvidovre L 0-154.8 1495 1499 43.99% 28.94% 27.06%+0.10 -7.6 12
2024-08-25 @ Fredericia W 1-054.8 1499 1495 27.06% 28.94% 43.99%-0.10 +7.6 12
2024-08-25 Odense L 0-347.7 1490 1589 30.65% 29.47% 39.87%-0.52 -16.1 11
2024-08-25 @ Hobro W 3-047.7 1589 1490 39.87% 29.47% 30.65%+0.52 +16.1 21
2024-08-30 Esbjerg L 1-252.8 1385 1422 39.28% 29.52% 31.20%-0.12 -6.6 1
2024-08-30 @ FC Roskilde W 2-152.8 1422 1385 31.20% 29.52% 39.28%+0.12 +6.6 15
2024-08-30 Horsens D 3-371.1 1506 1463 50.16% 27.52% 22.32%+0.39 -0.6 13
2024-08-30 @ Hvidovre D 3-371.1 1463 1506 22.32% 27.52% 50.16%-0.39 +0.6 14
2024-08-30 Kolding IF L 0-348.5 1499 1476 47.50% 28.22% 24.27%+0.26 -22.2 9
2024-08-30 @ Hillerod W 3-048.5 1476 1499 24.27% 28.22% 47.50%-0.26 +22.2 12
2024-08-30 Vendsyssel W 2-042.0 1605 1447 63.97% 21.82% 14.21%+1.14 +5.3 24
2024-08-30 @ Odense L 0-242.0 1447 1605 14.21% 21.82% 63.97%-1.14 -5.3 10
2024-09-01 Fredericia L 3-456.7 1343 1488 25.27% 28.52% 46.21%-0.82 -4.4 0
2024-09-01 @ HB Koge W 4-356.7 1488 1343 46.21% 28.52% 25.27%+0.82 +4.4 15
2024-09-02 B.93 L 0-153.1 1474 1449 47.80% 28.15% 24.05%+0.28 -8.1 11
2024-09-02 @ Hobro W 1-053.1 1449 1474 24.05% 28.15% 47.80%-0.28 +8.1 11
2024-09-13 Hvidovre W 2-046.9 1378 1506 27.24% 28.98% 43.79%-0.70 +14.3 4
2024-09-13 @ FC Roskilde L 0-246.9 1506 1378 43.79% 28.98% 27.24%+0.70 -14.3 13
2024-09-14 HB Koge D 1-159.1 1499 1338 64.23% 21.69% 14.09%+1.15 -1.9 13
2024-09-14 @ Kolding IF D 1-159.1 1338 1499 14.09% 21.69% 64.23%-1.15 +1.9 1
2024-09-14 Hillerod L 0-344.5 1442 1477 39.57% 29.50% 30.93%-0.11 -19.3 10
2024-09-14 @ Vendsyssel W 3-044.5 1477 1442 30.93% 29.50% 39.57%+0.11 +19.3 12
2024-09-14 Odense D 2-270.7 1464 1611 25.07% 28.46% 46.47%-0.83 +0.6 15
2024-09-14 @ Horsens D 2-270.7 1611 1464 46.47% 28.46% 25.07%+0.83 -0.6 25
2024-09-15 B.93 W 4-360.0 1429 1457 40.47% 29.42% 30.11%-0.07 +5.0 18
2024-09-15 @ Esbjerg L 3-460.0 1457 1429 30.11% 29.42% 40.47%+0.07 -5.0 11
2024-09-16 Hobro D 1-161.0 1492 1466 47.92% 28.12% 23.96%+0.28 -0.9 16
2024-09-16 @ Fredericia D 1-161.0 1466 1492 23.96% 28.12% 47.92%-0.28 +0.9 12
2024-09-20 Kolding IF W 1-049.7 1467 1497 40.32% 29.43% 30.25%-0.07 +5.8 15
2024-09-20 @ Hobro L 0-149.7 1497 1467 30.25% 29.43% 40.32%+0.07 -5.8 13
2024-09-20 Vendsyssel L 0-240.8 1340 1423 32.83% 29.63% 37.54%-0.42 -11.6 1
2024-09-20 @ HB Koge W 2-040.8 1423 1340 37.54% 29.63% 32.83%+0.42 +11.6 13
2024-09-21 Horsens W 1-047.3 1452 1464 42.79% 29.13% 28.08%+0.04 +5.5 14
2024-09-21 @ B.93 L 0-147.3 1464 1452 28.08% 29.13% 42.79%-0.04 -5.5 15
2024-09-22 Esbjerg W 3-255.1 1491 1434 52.00% 26.95% 21.05%+0.49 +3.8 16
2024-09-22 @ Hvidovre L 2-355.1 1434 1491 21.05% 26.95% 52.00%-0.49 -3.8 18
2024-09-22 FC Roskilde W 3-252.4 1610 1393 70.27% 18.39% 11.34%+1.52 +1.9 28
2024-09-22 @ Odense L 2-352.4 1393 1610 11.34% 18.39% 70.27%-1.52 -1.9 4
2024-09-23 Fredericia L 0-348.4 1496 1491 45.14% 28.74% 26.13%+0.15 -21.3 12
2024-09-23 @ Hillerod W 3-048.4 1491 1496 26.13% 28.74% 45.14%-0.15 +21.3 19
2024-09-27 Odense L 1-259.2 1491 1612 27.93% 29.11% 42.96%-0.66 -5.2 13
2024-09-27 @ Kolding IF W 2-159.2 1612 1491 42.96% 29.11% 27.93%+0.66 +5.2 31
2024-09-28 B.93 W 3-040.1 1513 1458 51.66% 27.06% 21.29%+0.47 +11.8 22
2024-09-28 @ Fredericia L 0-340.1 1458 1513 21.29% 27.06% 51.66%-0.47 -11.8 14
2024-09-28 Hobro W 2-043.9 1459 1473 42.51% 29.17% 28.32%+0.03 +10.4 18
2024-09-28 @ Horsens L 0-243.9 1473 1459 28.32% 29.17% 42.51%-0.03 -10.4 15
2024-09-28 Hvidovre L 0-150.2 1434 1495 35.92% 29.68% 34.40%-0.27 -6.6 13
2024-09-28 @ Vendsyssel W 1-050.2 1495 1434 34.40% 29.68% 35.92%+0.27 +6.6 19
2024-09-29 HB Koge L 0-245.2 1391 1329 52.62% 26.74% 20.64%+0.52 -16.5 4
2024-09-29 @ FC Roskilde W 2-045.2 1329 1391 20.64% 26.74% 52.62%-0.52 +16.5 4
2024-09-29 Hillerod D 1-158.7 1430 1475 38.15% 29.60% 32.25%-0.17 -0.2 19
2024-09-29 @ Esbjerg D 1-158.7 1475 1430 32.25% 29.60% 38.15%+0.17 +0.2 13
2024-10-04 Esbjerg L 0-444.4 1446 1430 46.63% 28.43% 24.95%+0.22 -28.5 14
2024-10-04 @ B.93 W 4-044.4 1430 1446 24.95% 28.43% 46.63%-0.22 +28.6 22
2024-10-04 FC Roskilde W 4-139.5 1462 1374 55.82% 25.56% 18.62%+0.69 +8.7 18
2024-10-04 @ Hobro L 1-439.5 1374 1462 18.62% 25.56% 55.82%-0.69 -8.7 4
2024-10-04 HB Koge L 0-352.6 1617 1345 75.53% 15.32% 9.15%+1.87 -31.1 31
2024-10-04 @ Odense W 3-052.6 1345 1617 9.15% 15.32% 75.53%-1.87 +31.0 7
2024-10-04 Vendsyssel D 2-264.9 1475 1428 50.73% 27.35% 21.93%+0.42 -0.8 14
2024-10-04 @ Hillerod D 2-264.9 1428 1475 21.93% 27.35% 50.73%-0.42 +0.8 14
2024-10-05 Horsens L 1-261.8 1524 1469 51.71% 27.04% 21.25%+0.47 -8.2 22
2024-10-05 @ Fredericia W 2-161.8 1469 1524 21.25% 27.04% 51.71%-0.47 +8.2 21
2024-10-07 Kolding IF D 0-057.7 1502 1486 46.58% 28.44% 24.99%+0.22 -0.9 20
2024-10-07 @ Hvidovre D 0-057.7 1486 1502 24.99% 28.44% 46.58%-0.22 +0.9 14
2024-10-18 B.93 L 1-255.5 1429 1417 45.94% 28.57% 25.48%+0.19 -7.4 14
2024-10-18 @ Vendsyssel W 2-155.5 1417 1429 25.48% 28.57% 45.94%-0.19 +7.4 17
2024-10-18 Hillerod W 3-149.5 1487 1474 46.08% 28.54% 25.37%+0.20 +8.2 17
2024-10-18 @ Kolding IF L 1-349.5 1474 1487 25.37% 28.54% 46.08%-0.20 -8.2 14
2024-10-18 Hobro W 4-147.2 1376 1471 31.17% 29.52% 39.31%-0.50 +16.2 10
2024-10-18 @ HB Koge L 1-447.2 1471 1376 39.31% 29.52% 31.17%+0.50 -16.2 18
2024-10-18 Odense L 1-541.6 1366 1586 18.58% 25.54% 55.89%-1.31 -11.2 4
2024-10-18 @ FC Roskilde W 5-141.6 1586 1366 55.89% 25.54% 18.58%+1.31 +11.2 34
2024-10-19 Fredericia L 0-345.6 1458 1516 36.32% 29.67% 34.01%-0.26 -18.2 22
2024-10-19 @ Esbjerg W 3-045.6 1516 1458 34.01% 29.67% 36.32%+0.26 +18.2 25
2024-10-20 Hvidovre W 2-155.2 1477 1501 41.21% 29.34% 29.45%-0.03 +5.4 24
2024-10-20 @ Horsens L 1-255.2 1501 1477 29.45% 29.34% 41.21%+0.03 -5.4 20
2024-10-25 FC Roskilde L 0-150.3 1425 1354 53.65% 26.38% 19.97%+0.57 -8.9 17
2024-10-25 @ B.93 W 1-050.3 1354 1425 19.97% 26.38% 53.65%-0.57 +8.9 7
2024-10-25 Horsens W 2-044.7 1466 1483 42.16% 29.22% 28.62%+0.01 +10.5 17
2024-10-25 @ Hillerod L 0-244.7 1483 1466 28.62% 29.22% 42.16%-0.01 -10.5 24
2024-10-25 Kolding IF L 0-147.0 1392 1495 30.21% 29.43% 40.37%-0.54 -5.8 10
2024-10-25 @ HB Koge W 1-047.0 1495 1392 40.37% 29.43% 30.21%+0.54 +5.8 20
2024-10-26 Esbjerg W 2-150.6 1597 1440 63.87% 21.87% 14.26%+1.13 +2.7 37
2024-10-26 @ Odense L 1-250.6 1440 1597 14.26% 21.87% 63.87%-1.13 -2.7 22
2024-10-26 Vendsyssel W 3-145.5 1495 1421 54.11% 26.21% 19.67%+0.60 +6.5 23
2024-10-26 @ Hvidovre L 1-345.5 1421 1495 19.67% 26.21% 54.11%-0.60 -6.5 14
2024-10-27 Fredericia L 1-450.2 1455 1534 33.26% 29.65% 37.09%-0.40 -14.4 18
2024-10-27 @ Hobro W 4-150.2 1534 1455 37.09% 29.65% 33.26%+0.40 +14.4 28
2024-11-01 B.93 W 3-037.2 1472 1416 51.86% 26.99% 21.15%+0.48 +11.7 27
2024-11-01 @ Horsens L 0-337.2 1416 1472 21.15% 26.99% 51.86%-0.48 -11.8 17
2024-11-01 Hvidovre W 1-050.0 1477 1502 40.95% 29.37% 29.68%-0.05 +5.7 20
2024-11-01 @ Hillerod L 0-150.0 1502 1477 29.68% 29.37% 40.95%+0.05 -5.7 23
2024-11-02 HB Koge D 1-156.3 1415 1387 48.20% 28.05% 23.75%+0.30 -0.9 15
2024-11-02 @ Vendsyssel D 1-156.3 1387 1415 23.75% 28.05% 48.20%-0.30 +0.9 11
2024-11-02 Kolding IF L 0-144.9 1363 1501 26.09% 28.73% 45.19%-0.77 -5.2 7
2024-11-02 @ FC Roskilde W 1-044.9 1501 1363 45.19% 28.73% 26.09%+0.77 +5.2 23
2024-11-03 Hobro W 3-255.9 1438 1441 44.02% 28.94% 27.04%+0.10 +4.8 25
2024-11-03 @ Esbjerg L 2-355.9 1441 1438 27.04% 28.94% 44.02%-0.10 -4.8 18
2024-11-03 Odense L 1-456.9 1549 1600 37.26% 29.64% 33.10%-0.21 -15.6 28
2024-11-03 @ Fredericia W 4-156.9 1600 1549 33.10% 29.64% 37.26%+0.21 +15.6 40
2024-11-08 Fredericia L 0-541.3 1404 1533 27.03% 28.94% 44.03%-0.71 -23.5 17
2024-11-08 @ B.93 W 5-041.3 1533 1404 44.03% 28.94% 27.03%+0.71 +23.4 31
2024-11-08 Vendsyssel D 0-056.1 1506 1414 56.31% 25.37% 18.33%+0.71 -1.6 24
2024-11-08 @ Kolding IF D 0-056.1 1414 1506 18.33% 25.37% 56.31%-0.71 +1.6 16
2024-11-09 Horsens W 3-258.7 1616 1484 60.98% 23.30% 15.72%+0.97 +2.8 43
2024-11-09 @ Odense L 2-358.7 1484 1616 15.72% 23.30% 60.98%-0.97 -2.8 27
2024-11-10 FC Roskilde W 2-036.3 1442 1358 55.34% 25.75% 18.91%+0.66 +7.2 28
2024-11-10 @ Esbjerg L 0-236.3 1358 1442 18.91% 25.75% 55.34%-0.66 -7.2 7
2024-11-10 Hvidovre W 1-050.2 1388 1496 29.43% 29.33% 41.24%-0.58 +7.3 14
2024-11-10 @ HB Koge L 0-150.2 1496 1388 41.24% 29.33% 29.43%+0.58 -7.3 23
2024-11-11 Hillerod D 2-264.7 1436 1482 37.92% 29.61% 32.47%-0.18 -0.1 19
2024-11-11 @ Hobro D 2-264.7 1482 1436 32.47% 29.61% 37.92%+0.18 +0.1 21
2024-11-22 FC Roskilde W 2-035.3 1489 1351 61.72% 22.94% 15.34%+1.01 +5.8 26
2024-11-22 @ Hvidovre L 0-235.3 1351 1489 15.34% 22.94% 61.72%-1.01 -5.8 7
2024-11-22 Hobro L 1-252.3 1381 1436 36.74% 29.66% 33.60%-0.24 -6.3 17
2024-11-22 @ B.93 W 2-152.3 1436 1381 33.60% 29.66% 36.74%+0.24 +6.3 22
2024-11-24 Esbjerg L 1-258.9 1483 1450 48.85% 27.88% 23.26%+0.33 -7.8 21
2024-11-24 @ Hillerod W 2-158.9 1450 1483 23.26% 27.88% 48.85%-0.33 +7.8 31
2024-11-24 HB Koge D 0-054.7 1481 1395 55.62% 25.64% 18.74%+0.67 -1.5 28
2024-11-24 @ Horsens D 0-054.7 1395 1481 18.74% 25.64% 55.62%-0.67 +1.5 15
2024-11-24 Kolding IF W 1-050.0 1557 1504 51.36% 27.15% 21.49%+0.45 +4.4 34
2024-11-24 @ Fredericia L 0-150.0 1504 1557 21.49% 27.15% 51.36%-0.45 -4.3 24
2024-11-25 Odense D 1-164.4 1415 1618 19.91% 26.35% 53.74%-1.19 +1.3 17
2024-11-25 @ Vendsyssel D 1-164.4 1618 1415 53.74% 26.35% 19.91%+1.19 -1.3 44
2024-11-29 Hobro W 1-045.4 1495 1442 51.40% 27.14% 21.46%+0.46 +4.3 29
2024-11-29 @ Hvidovre L 0-145.4 1442 1495 21.46% 27.14% 51.40%-0.46 -4.3 22
2024-11-29 Horsens L 1-260.3 1500 1480 47.16% 28.30% 24.54%+0.25 -7.6 24
2024-11-29 @ Kolding IF W 2-160.3 1480 1500 24.54% 28.30% 47.16%-0.25 +7.6 31
2024-11-30 Fredericia L 0-239.2 1345 1561 18.92% 25.76% 55.32%-1.28 -7.2 7
2024-11-30 @ FC Roskilde W 2-039.2 1561 1345 55.32% 25.76% 18.92%+1.28 +7.2 37
2024-12-01 B.93 D 3-375.1 1617 1375 72.78% 16.94% 10.28%+1.68 -1.5 45
2024-12-01 @ Odense D 3-375.1 1375 1617 10.28% 16.94% 72.78%-1.68 +1.5 18
2024-12-01 Esbjerg W 2-043.2 1417 1457 38.76% 29.56% 31.68%-0.15 +11.3 20
2024-12-01 @ Vendsyssel L 0-243.2 1457 1417 31.68% 29.56% 38.76%+0.15 -11.3 31
2024-12-02 Hillerod L 1-544.6 1396 1475 33.39% 29.65% 36.96%-0.39 -18.6 15
2024-12-02 @ HB Koge W 5-144.6 1475 1396 36.96% 29.65% 33.39%+0.39 +18.6 24
2025-02-21 Hvidovre W 4-256.0 1376 1499 27.70% 29.07% 43.23%-0.68 +11.0 21
2025-02-21 @ B.93 L 2-456.0 1499 1376 43.23% 29.07% 27.70%+0.68 -11.0 29
2025-02-21 Odense D 1-166.2 1493 1616 27.80% 29.08% 43.12%-0.67 +0.5 25
2025-02-21 @ Hillerod D 1-166.2 1616 1493 43.12% 29.08% 27.80%+0.67 -0.5 46
2025-02-21 Vendsyssel W 1-044.7 1438 1428 45.75% 28.61% 25.64%+0.18 +5.1 25
2025-02-21 @ Hobro L 0-144.7 1428 1438 25.64% 28.61% 45.75%-0.18 -5.1 20
2025-02-22 Kolding IF L 0-151.1 1446 1492 37.97% 29.61% 32.42%-0.18 -6.8 31
2025-02-22 @ Esbjerg W 1-051.1 1492 1446 32.42% 29.61% 37.97%+0.18 +6.8 27
2025-02-23 FC Roskilde L 1-258.2 1487 1338 63.01% 22.31% 14.68%+1.08 -9.5 31
2025-02-23 @ Horsens W 2-158.2 1338 1487 14.68% 22.31% 63.01%-1.08 +9.5 10
2025-02-23 HB Koge L 1-262.6 1568 1378 67.50% 19.94% 12.56%+1.35 -9.9 37
2025-02-23 @ Fredericia W 2-162.6 1378 1568 12.56% 19.94% 67.50%-1.35 +9.9 18
2025-02-27 Fredericia W 1-054.5 1488 1558 34.54% 29.68% 35.78%-0.34 +6.6 32
2025-02-27 @ Hvidovre L 0-154.5 1558 1488 35.78% 29.68% 34.54%+0.34 -6.6 37
2025-02-28 Esbjerg L 0-243.5 1388 1439 37.22% 29.64% 33.14%-0.22 -12.7 18
2025-02-28 @ HB Koge W 2-043.5 1439 1388 33.14% 29.64% 37.22%+0.22 +12.7 34
2025-02-28 Horsens L 3-462.6 1423 1478 36.73% 29.66% 33.61%-0.24 -5.8 20
2025-02-28 @ Vendsyssel W 4-362.6 1478 1423 33.61% 29.66% 36.73%+0.24 +5.8 34
2025-03-01 B.93 W 3-035.1 1499 1387 58.71% 24.35% 16.94%+0.84 +9.4 30
2025-03-01 @ Kolding IF L 0-335.1 1387 1499 16.94% 24.35% 58.71%-0.84 -9.4 21
2025-03-01 Hillerod L 1-249.1 1347 1494 25.10% 28.47% 46.43%-0.83 -4.7 10
2025-03-01 @ FC Roskilde W 2-149.1 1494 1347 46.43% 28.47% 25.10%+0.83 +4.7 28
2025-03-02 Hobro D 1-166.9 1615 1443 65.55% 20.99% 13.46%+1.23 -2.0 47
2025-03-02 @ Odense D 1-166.9 1443 1615 13.46% 20.99% 65.55%-1.23 +2.0 26
2025-03-07 HB Koge D 1-155.1 1378 1375 44.80% 28.80% 26.40%+0.13 -0.7 22
2025-03-07 @ B.93 D 1-155.1 1375 1378 26.40% 28.80% 44.80%-0.13 +0.6 19
2025-03-07 Hillerod L 0-254.6 1552 1499 51.44% 27.13% 21.43%+0.46 -16.2 37
2025-03-07 @ Fredericia W 2-054.6 1499 1552 21.43% 27.13% 51.44%-0.46 +16.2 31
2025-03-08 Horsens L 1-352.7 1445 1484 39.02% 29.54% 31.44%-0.13 -11.4 26
2025-03-08 @ Hobro W 3-152.7 1484 1445 31.44% 29.54% 39.02%+0.13 +11.4 37
2025-03-08 Kolding IF D 1-167.9 1613 1509 57.82% 24.74% 17.45%+0.79 -1.5 48
2025-03-08 @ Odense D 1-167.9 1509 1613 17.45% 24.74% 57.82%-0.79 +1.5 31
2025-03-09 Hvidovre L 0-151.6 1452 1495 38.48% 29.58% 31.94%-0.16 -6.9 34
2025-03-09 @ Esbjerg W 1-051.6 1495 1452 31.94% 29.58% 38.48%+0.16 +6.9 35
2025-03-09 Vendsyssel W 3-147.4 1343 1417 33.96% 29.67% 36.37%-0.36 +10.8 13
2025-03-09 @ FC Roskilde L 1-347.4 1417 1343 36.37% 29.67% 33.96%+0.36 -10.8 20
2025-03-14 B.93 D 1-160.3 1515 1377 61.71% 22.95% 15.34%+1.01 -1.8 32
2025-03-14 @ Hillerod D 1-160.3 1377 1515 15.34% 22.95% 61.71%-1.01 +1.8 23
2025-03-14 Esbjerg W 2-150.9 1495 1445 51.06% 27.25% 21.69%+0.44 +4.1 40
2025-03-14 @ Horsens L 1-250.9 1445 1495 21.69% 27.25% 51.06%-0.44 -4.2 34
2025-03-14 FC Roskilde W 2-146.5 1376 1353 47.41% 28.25% 24.34%+0.26 +4.6 22
2025-03-14 @ HB Koge L 1-246.5 1353 1376 24.34% 28.25% 47.41%-0.26 -4.6 13
2025-03-14 Fredericia L 0-147.7 1406 1535 26.99% 28.93% 44.09%-0.72 -5.3 20
2025-03-14 @ Vendsyssel W 1-047.7 1535 1406 44.09% 28.93% 26.99%+0.72 +5.3 40
2025-03-14 Hobro W 1-044.7 1510 1433 54.42% 26.10% 19.48%+0.61 +4.0 34
2025-03-14 @ Kolding IF L 0-144.7 1433 1510 19.48% 26.10% 54.42%-0.61 -4.0 26
2025-03-14 Odense D 0-061.9 1502 1612 29.25% 29.31% 41.44%-0.59 +0.5 36
2025-03-14 @ Hvidovre D 0-061.9 1612 1502 41.44% 29.31% 29.25%+0.59 -0.5 49

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-03-28 Hillerod D 0-054.8 1401 1513 28.99% 29.28% 41.74%-0.61 +0.5 1
2025-03-28 @ Vendsyssel D 0-054.8 1513 1401 41.74% 29.28% 28.99%+0.61 -0.5 1
2025-03-29 Esbjerg L 0-348.4 1502 1441 52.47% 26.79% 20.74%+0.51 -24.0 0
2025-03-29 @ Hvidovre W 3-048.4 1441 1502 20.74% 26.79% 52.47%-0.51 +24.0 3
2025-03-29 Fredericia L 0-156.2 1514 1541 40.73% 29.39% 29.88%-0.06 -7.2 0
2025-03-29 @ Kolding IF W 1-056.2 1541 1514 29.88% 29.39% 40.73%+0.06 +7.2 3
2025-03-29 HB Koge D 2-260.7 1379 1380 44.24% 28.90% 26.86%+0.11 -0.5 1
2025-03-29 @ B.93 D 2-260.7 1380 1379 26.86% 28.90% 44.24%-0.11 +0.4 1
2025-03-30 FC Roskilde D 1-156.4 1429 1349 54.89% 25.92% 19.19%+0.64 -1.3 1
2025-03-30 @ Hobro D 1-156.4 1349 1429 19.19% 25.92% 54.89%-0.64 +1.3 1
2025-03-30 Horsens W 1-049.4 1611 1499 58.69% 24.36% 16.95%+0.84 +3.4 3
2025-03-30 @ Odense L 0-149.4 1499 1611 16.95% 24.36% 58.69%-0.84 -3.4 0
2025-04-04 B.93 L 2-356.7 1350 1378 40.55% 29.41% 30.04%-0.06 -6.4 1
2025-04-04 @ FC Roskilde W 3-256.7 1378 1350 30.04% 29.41% 40.55%+0.06 +6.4 4
2025-04-04 Hobro W 2-040.4 1513 1428 55.40% 25.73% 18.88%+0.66 +7.2 4
2025-04-04 @ Hillerod L 0-240.4 1428 1513 18.88% 25.73% 55.40%-0.66 -7.2 1
2025-04-04 Vendsyssel D 0-051.2 1381 1401 41.57% 29.30% 29.13%-0.02 -0.5 2
2025-04-04 @ HB Koge D 0-051.2 1401 1381 29.13% 29.30% 41.57%+0.02 +0.5 2
2025-04-05 Odense W 1-058.0 1548 1615 35.06% 29.68% 35.26%-0.31 +6.5 6
2025-04-05 @ Fredericia L 0-158.0 1615 1548 35.26% 29.68% 35.06%+0.31 -6.5 3
2025-04-06 Hvidovre W 1-048.1 1496 1478 46.83% 28.38% 24.79%+0.23 +4.9 3
2025-04-06 @ Horsens L 0-148.1 1478 1496 24.79% 28.38% 46.83%-0.23 -5.0 0
2025-04-06 Kolding IF L 1-257.8 1465 1507 38.58% 29.57% 31.84%-0.15 -6.5 3
2025-04-06 @ Esbjerg W 2-157.8 1507 1465 31.84% 29.57% 38.58%+0.15 +6.5 3
2025-04-10 Horsens W 5-146.7 1554 1501 51.54% 27.10% 21.37%+0.46 +12.9 9
2025-04-10 @ Fredericia L 1-546.7 1501 1554 21.37% 27.10% 51.54%-0.46 -12.9 3
2025-04-11 B.93 D 0-052.1 1421 1385 49.26% 27.77% 22.97%+0.35 -1.1 2
2025-04-11 @ Hobro D 0-052.1 1385 1421 22.97% 27.77% 49.26%-0.35 +1.1 5
2025-04-11 Hvidovre L 1-357.4 1513 1473 49.80% 27.62% 22.58%+0.38 -13.7 3
2025-04-11 @ Kolding IF W 3-157.4 1473 1513 22.58% 27.62% 49.80%-0.38 +13.7 3
2025-04-11 Odense L 0-646.1 1458 1608 24.77% 28.37% 46.86%-0.85 -25.9 3
2025-04-11 @ Esbjerg W 6-046.1 1608 1458 46.86% 28.37% 24.77%+0.85 +25.9 6
2025-04-12 FC Roskilde D 0-051.2 1402 1344 52.08% 26.92% 21.00%+0.49 -1.3 3
2025-04-12 @ Vendsyssel D 0-051.2 1344 1402 21.00% 26.92% 52.08%-0.49 +1.3 2
2025-04-13 Hillerod L 0-242.0 1380 1520 25.83% 28.66% 45.51%-0.78 -9.7 2
2025-04-13 @ HB Koge W 2-042.0 1520 1380 45.51% 28.66% 25.83%+0.78 +9.7 7
2025-04-16 Fredericia D 0-059.8 1487 1567 33.10% 29.64% 37.26%-0.40 +0.2 4
2025-04-16 @ Hvidovre D 0-059.8 1567 1487 37.26% 29.64% 33.10%+0.40 -0.2 10
2025-04-16 Vendsyssel W 3-144.7 1420 1401 47.02% 28.34% 24.64%+0.24 +8.0 5
2025-04-16 @ Hobro L 1-344.7 1401 1420 24.64% 28.34% 47.02%-0.24 -8.0 3
2025-04-17 HB Koge D 1-154.3 1345 1370 40.92% 29.37% 29.71%-0.05 -0.4 3
2025-04-17 @ FC Roskilde D 1-154.3 1370 1345 29.71% 29.37% 40.92%+0.05 +0.4 3
2025-04-17 Hillerod W 1-052.4 1386 1530 25.40% 28.55% 46.05%-0.81 +7.9 8
2025-04-17 @ B.93 L 0-152.4 1530 1386 46.05% 28.55% 25.40%+0.81 -7.9 7
2025-04-17 Kolding IF W 4-362.4 1634 1500 61.30% 23.15% 15.55%+0.98 +2.7 9
2025-04-17 @ Odense L 3-462.4 1500 1634 15.55% 23.15% 61.30%-0.98 -2.7 3
2025-04-18 Esbjerg W 3-255.0 1488 1432 51.74% 27.03% 21.23%+0.47 +3.9 6
2025-04-18 @ Horsens L 2-355.0 1432 1488 21.23% 27.03% 51.74%-0.47 -3.9 3
2025-04-20 B.93 W 3-144.8 1393 1394 44.28% 28.89% 26.83%+0.11 +8.6 6
2025-04-20 @ Vendsyssel L 1-344.8 1394 1393 26.83% 28.89% 44.28%-0.11 -8.6 8
2025-04-20 FC Roskilde W 5-240.1 1522 1345 66.05% 20.73% 13.23%+1.26 +5.1 10
2025-04-20 @ Hillerod L 2-540.1 1345 1522 13.23% 20.73% 66.05%-1.26 -5.1 3
2025-04-21 Hobro L 0-242.7 1371 1428 36.45% 29.67% 33.88%-0.25 -12.5 3
2025-04-21 @ HB Koge W 2-042.7 1428 1371 33.88% 29.67% 36.45%+0.25 +12.5 8
2025-04-21 Horsens W 2-045.2 1497 1492 45.15% 28.73% 26.12%+0.15 +9.8 6
2025-04-21 @ Kolding IF L 0-245.2 1492 1497 26.12% 28.73% 45.15%-0.15 -9.8 6
2025-04-21 Odense W 2-165.3 1487 1637 24.77% 28.38% 46.85%-0.85 +7.6 7
2025-04-21 @ Hvidovre L 1-265.3 1637 1487 46.85% 28.38% 24.77%+0.85 -7.5 9
2025-04-22 Fredericia L 0-245.4 1429 1567 25.95% 28.69% 45.36%-0.78 -9.7 3
2025-04-22 @ Esbjerg W 2-045.4 1567 1429 45.36% 28.69% 25.95%+0.78 +9.7 13
2025-04-25 HB Koge W 3-033.1 1527 1358 65.12% 21.22% 13.66%+1.20 +7.3 13
2025-04-25 @ Hillerod L 0-333.1 1358 1527 13.66% 21.22% 65.12%-1.20 -7.3 3
2025-04-25 Hobro W 5-040.1 1385 1440 36.69% 29.66% 33.65%-0.24 +27.7 11
2025-04-25 @ B.93 L 0-540.1 1440 1385 33.65% 29.66% 36.69%+0.24 -27.7 8
2025-04-25 Kolding IF L 2-364.1 1482 1507 41.01% 29.36% 29.63%-0.04 -6.5 6
2025-04-25 @ Horsens W 3-264.1 1507 1482 29.63% 29.36% 41.01%+0.04 +6.5 9
2025-04-26 Hvidovre D 1-168.4 1629 1495 61.33% 23.13% 15.54%+0.99 -1.8 10
2025-04-26 @ Odense D 1-168.4 1495 1629 15.54% 23.13% 61.33%-0.99 +1.7 8
2025-04-26 Vendsyssel W 2-150.2 1340 1401 35.78% 29.68% 34.54%-0.28 +6.0 6
2025-04-26 @ FC Roskilde L 1-250.2 1401 1340 34.54% 29.68% 35.78%+0.28 -6.0 6
2025-04-27 Esbjerg D 1-164.3 1577 1419 63.98% 21.82% 14.21%+1.14 -1.9 14
2025-04-27 @ Fredericia D 1-164.3 1419 1577 14.21% 21.82% 63.98%-1.14 +1.9 4
2025-05-02 Hillerod D 0-056.0 1413 1534 27.89% 29.10% 43.01%-0.67 +0.6 9
2025-05-02 @ Hobro D 0-056.0 1534 1413 43.01% 29.10% 27.89%+0.67 -0.6 14
2025-05-02 Vendsyssel D 2-261.9 1413 1395 46.81% 28.38% 24.80%+0.23 -0.6 12
2025-05-02 @ B.93 D 2-261.9 1395 1413 24.80% 28.38% 46.81%-0.23 +0.6 7
2025-05-03 Fredericia D 1-169.3 1627 1575 51.36% 27.15% 21.49%+0.45 -1.1 11
2025-05-03 @ Odense D 1-169.3 1575 1627 21.49% 27.15% 51.36%-0.45 +1.1 15
2025-05-03 Horsens L 0-149.3 1421 1475 36.77% 29.66% 33.57%-0.24 -6.7 4
2025-05-03 @ Esbjerg W 1-049.3 1475 1421 33.57% 29.66% 36.77%+0.24 +6.7 9
2025-05-03 Kolding IF L 0-154.9 1496 1513 42.11% 29.23% 28.66%+0.01 -7.4 8
2025-05-03 @ Hvidovre W 1-054.9 1513 1496 28.66% 29.23% 42.11%-0.01 +7.4 12
2025-05-04 FC Roskilde W 4-354.5 1351 1346 45.17% 28.73% 26.10%+0.15 +4.5 6
2025-05-04 @ HB Koge L 3-454.5 1346 1351 26.10% 28.73% 45.17%-0.15 -4.5 6
2025-05-08 B.93 W 5-244.6 1533 1412 59.79% 23.86% 16.35%+0.90 +6.6 17
2025-05-08 @ Hillerod L 2-544.6 1412 1533 16.35% 23.86% 59.79%-0.90 -6.6 12
2025-05-09 Hobro D 1-154.9 1341 1413 34.27% 29.68% 36.05%-0.35 +0.1 7
2025-05-09 @ FC Roskilde D 1-154.9 1413 1341 36.05% 29.68% 34.27%+0.35 -0.1 10
2025-05-09 Hvidovre W 5-145.8 1576 1489 55.72% 25.60% 18.68%+0.68 +11.3 18
2025-05-09 @ Fredericia L 1-545.8 1489 1576 18.68% 25.60% 55.72%-0.68 -11.3 8
2025-05-09 Odense D 2-271.8 1482 1626 25.35% 28.54% 46.11%-0.81 +0.6 10
2025-05-09 @ Horsens D 2-271.8 1626 1482 46.11% 28.54% 25.35%+0.81 -0.6 12
2025-05-10 Esbjerg W 2-148.6 1521 1414 58.03% 24.64% 17.32%+0.80 +3.3 15
2025-05-10 @ Kolding IF L 1-248.6 1414 1521 17.32% 24.64% 58.03%-0.80 -3.3 4
2025-05-10 HB Koge L 0-149.0 1396 1356 49.79% 27.62% 22.59%+0.38 -8.4 7
2025-05-10 @ Vendsyssel W 1-049.0 1356 1396 22.59% 27.62% 49.79%-0.38 +8.4 9
2025-05-15 Hvidovre W 2-044.7 1411 1478 35.03% 29.68% 35.28%-0.31 +12.2 7
2025-05-15 @ Esbjerg L 0-244.7 1478 1411 35.28% 29.68% 35.03%+0.31 -12.2 8
2025-05-16 B.93 W 2-149.8 1364 1406 38.63% 29.57% 31.80%-0.15 +5.7 12
2025-05-16 @ HB Koge L 1-249.8 1406 1364 31.80% 29.57% 38.63%+0.15 -5.7 12
2025-05-16 Hillerod W 4-258.4 1341 1540 20.24% 26.53% 53.22%-1.17 +12.9 10
2025-05-16 @ FC Roskilde L 2-458.4 1540 1341 53.22% 26.53% 20.24%+1.17 -12.9 17
2025-05-16 Hobro W 2-040.6 1387 1413 40.86% 29.38% 29.76%-0.05 +10.8 10
2025-05-16 @ Vendsyssel L 0-240.6 1413 1387 29.76% 29.38% 40.86%+0.05 -10.8 10
2025-05-17 Fredericia L 0-347.1 1483 1587 29.92% 29.40% 40.69%-0.56 -15.8 10
2025-05-17 @ Horsens W 3-047.1 1587 1483 40.69% 29.40% 29.92%+0.56 +15.8 21
2025-05-17 Odense D 1-167.3 1524 1626 30.27% 29.44% 40.29%-0.54 +0.4 16
2025-05-17 @ Kolding IF D 1-167.3 1626 1524 40.29% 29.44% 30.27%+0.54 -0.3 13
2025-05-22 FC Roskilde L 0-245.3 1400 1354 50.52% 27.41% 22.07%+0.41 -16.0 12
2025-05-22 @ B.93 W 2-045.3 1354 1400 22.07% 27.41% 50.52%-0.41 +16.0 13
2025-05-22 HB Koge W 2-146.8 1402 1370 48.81% 27.89% 23.29%+0.33 +4.4 13
2025-05-22 @ Hobro L 1-246.8 1370 1402 23.29% 27.89% 48.81%-0.33 -4.4 12
2025-05-22 Vendsyssel W 3-143.8 1527 1398 60.68% 23.44% 15.87%+0.95 +5.2 20
2025-05-22 @ Hillerod L 1-343.8 1398 1527 15.87% 23.44% 60.68%-0.95 -5.2 10
2025-05-23 Esbjerg W 4-249.9 1625 1423 68.74% 19.25% 12.01%+1.42 +3.3 16
2025-05-23 @ Odense L 2-449.9 1423 1625 12.01% 19.25% 68.74%-1.42 -3.3 7
2025-05-23 Horsens D 1-159.9 1465 1467 44.22% 28.90% 26.88%+0.11 -0.6 9
2025-05-23 @ Hvidovre D 1-159.9 1467 1465 26.88% 28.90% 44.22%-0.11 +0.6 11
2025-05-23 Kolding IF W 2-047.2 1603 1524 54.71% 25.99% 19.30%+0.63 +7.4 24
2025-05-23 @ Fredericia L 0-247.2 1524 1603 19.30% 25.99% 54.71%-0.63 -7.4 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2024-10-04 9.15% HB Koge 1345 3 @ Odense 1617 0
2 2025-02-23 12.56% HB Koge 1378 2 @ Fredericia 1568 1
3 2025-02-23 14.68% FC Roskilde 1338 2 @ Horsens 1487 1
4 2024-08-21 19.01% Esbjerg 1404 2 @ Kolding IF 1487 1
5 2024-07-26 19.81% Esbjerg 1397 6 @ Hobro 1470 3
6 2024-10-25 19.97% FC Roskilde 1354 1 @ B.93 1425 0
7 2025-05-16 20.24% @ FC Roskilde 1341 4 Hillerod 1540 2
8 2024-09-29 20.64% HB Koge 1329 2 @ FC Roskilde 1391 0
9 2025-03-29 20.74% Esbjerg 1441 3 @ Hvidovre 1502 0
10 2024-10-05 21.25% Horsens 1469 2 @ Fredericia 1524 1
11 2025-03-07 21.43% Hillerod 1499 2 @ Fredericia 1552 0
12 2025-05-22 22.07% FC Roskilde 1354 2 @ B.93 1400 0
13 2025-04-11 22.58% Hvidovre 1473 3 @ Kolding IF 1513 1
14 2025-05-10 22.59% HB Koge 1356 1 @ Vendsyssel 1396 0
15 2024-11-24 23.26% Esbjerg 1450 2 @ Hillerod 1483 1
16 2024-09-02 24.05% B.93 1449 1 @ Hobro 1474 0
17 2024-08-30 24.27% Kolding IF 1476 3 @ Hillerod 1499 0
18 2024-11-29 24.54% Horsens 1480 2 @ Kolding IF 1500 1
19 2025-04-21 24.77% @ Hvidovre 1487 2 Odense 1637 1
20 2024-10-04 24.95% Esbjerg 1430 4 @ B.93 1446 0
21 2025-04-17 25.40% @ B.93 1386 1 Hillerod 1530 0
22 2024-10-18 25.48% B.93 1417 2 @ Vendsyssel 1429 1
23 2024-09-23 26.13% Fredericia 1491 3 @ Hillerod 1496 0
24 2024-08-21 26.91% Hobro 1469 3 @ Vendsyssel 1468 0
25 2024-08-25 27.06% Hvidovre 1499 1 @ Fredericia 1495 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-10-04 31.05 HB Koge 3 1345 9.15% @ Odense 0 1617 75.53% 15.32%
2 2024-10-04 28.56 Esbjerg 4 1430 24.95% @ B.93 0 1446 46.63% 28.43%
3 2025-04-25 27.69 @ B.93 5 1385 36.69% Hobro 0 1440 33.65% 29.66%
4 2025-04-11 25.90 Odense 6 1608 46.86% @ Esbjerg 0 1458 24.77% 28.37%
5 2024-08-20 24.36 B.93 4 1425 32.69% @ HB Koge 0 1377 37.69% 29.62%
6 2025-03-29 23.96 Esbjerg 3 1441 20.74% @ Hvidovre 0 1502 52.47% 26.79%
7 2024-11-08 23.45 Fredericia 5 1533 44.03% @ B.93 0 1404 27.03% 28.94%
8 2024-08-30 22.18 Kolding IF 3 1476 24.27% @ Hillerod 0 1499 47.50% 28.22%
9 2024-09-23 21.32 Fredericia 3 1491 26.13% @ Hillerod 0 1496 45.14% 28.74%
10 2024-08-21 20.98 Hobro 3 1469 26.91% @ Vendsyssel 0 1468 44.18% 28.91%
11 2024-07-26 19.57 Odense 4 1538 42.87% @ HB Koge 0 1418 28.01% 29.12%
12 2024-09-14 19.32 Hillerod 3 1477 30.93% @ Vendsyssel 0 1442 39.57% 29.50%
13 2024-12-02 18.62 Hillerod 5 1475 36.96% @ HB Koge 1 1396 33.39% 29.65%
14 2024-10-19 18.16 Fredericia 3 1516 34.01% @ Esbjerg 0 1458 36.32% 29.67%
15 2024-08-09 16.84 @ Hvidovre 4 1482 48.68% B.93 0 1450 23.39% 27.93%
16 2024-09-29 16.54 HB Koge 2 1329 20.64% @ FC Roskilde 0 1391 52.62% 26.74%
17 2024-07-26 16.54 Esbjerg 6 1397 19.81% @ Hobro 3 1470 53.90% 26.29%
18 2025-03-07 16.25 Hillerod 2 1499 21.43% @ Fredericia 0 1552 51.44% 27.13%
19 2024-10-18 16.21 @ HB Koge 4 1376 31.17% Hobro 1 1471 39.31% 29.52%
20 2024-08-25 16.06 Odense 3 1589 39.87% @ Hobro 0 1490 30.65% 29.47%
21 2025-05-22 16.02 FC Roskilde 2 1354 22.07% @ B.93 0 1400 50.52% 27.41%
22 2025-05-17 15.77 Fredericia 3 1587 40.69% @ Horsens 0 1483 29.92% 29.40%
23 2024-11-03 15.60 Odense 4 1600 33.10% @ Fredericia 1 1549 37.26% 29.64%
24 2024-10-27 14.39 Fredericia 4 1534 37.09% @ Hobro 1 1455 33.26% 29.65%
25 2024-09-13 14.35 @ FC Roskilde 2 1378 27.24% Hvidovre 0 1506 43.79% 28.98%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-12-01 75.1 @ Odense 3 1617 72.78% B.93 3 1375 10.28% 16.94%
2 2025-05-09 71.8 @ Horsens 2 1482 25.35% Odense 2 1626 46.11% 28.54%
3 2024-08-30 71.1 @ Hvidovre 3 1506 50.16% Horsens 3 1463 22.32% 27.52%
4 2024-09-14 70.7 @ Horsens 2 1464 25.07% Odense 2 1611 46.47% 28.46%
5 2025-05-03 69.3 @ Odense 1 1627 51.36% Fredericia 1 1575 21.49% 27.15%
6 2025-04-26 68.4 @ Odense 1 1629 61.33% Hvidovre 1 1495 15.54% 23.13%
7 2025-03-08 67.9 @ Odense 1 1613 57.82% Kolding IF 1 1509 17.45% 24.74%
8 2025-05-17 67.3 @ Kolding IF 1 1524 30.27% Odense 1 1626 40.29% 29.44%
9 2025-03-02 66.9 @ Odense 1 1615 65.55% Hobro 1 1443 13.46% 20.99%
10 2024-07-21 66.8 @ Hillerod 2 1496 48.12% Hobro 2 1469 23.81% 28.07%
11 2025-02-21 66.2 @ Hillerod 1 1493 27.80% Odense 1 1616 43.12% 29.08%
12 2025-04-21 65.3 @ Hvidovre 2 1487 24.77% Odense 1 1637 46.85% 28.38%
13 2024-10-04 64.9 @ Hillerod 2 1475 50.73% Vendsyssel 2 1428 21.93% 27.35%
14 2024-11-11 64.7 @ Hobro 2 1436 37.92% Hillerod 2 1482 32.47% 29.61%
15 2024-11-25 64.4 @ Vendsyssel 1 1415 19.91% Odense 1 1618 53.74% 26.35%
16 2025-04-27 64.3 @ Fredericia 1 1577 63.98% Esbjerg 1 1419 14.21% 21.82%
17 2025-04-25 64.1 Kolding IF 3 1507 29.63% @ Horsens 2 1482 41.01% 29.36%
18 2025-02-23 62.6 HB Koge 2 1378 12.56% @ Fredericia 1 1568 67.50% 19.94%
19 2025-02-28 62.6 Horsens 4 1478 33.61% @ Vendsyssel 3 1423 36.73% 29.66%
20 2025-04-17 62.4 @ Odense 4 1634 61.30% Kolding IF 3 1500 15.55% 23.15%
21 2025-03-14 61.9 @ Hvidovre 0 1502 29.25% Odense 0 1612 41.44% 29.31%
22 2025-05-02 61.9 @ B.93 2 1413 46.81% Vendsyssel 2 1395 24.80% 28.38%
23 2024-10-05 61.8 Horsens 2 1469 21.25% @ Fredericia 1 1524 51.71% 27.04%
24 2024-08-17 61.0 @ Hobro 1 1470 40.39% Hvidovre 1 1499 30.18% 29.43%
25 2024-09-16 61.0 @ Fredericia 1 1492 47.92% Hobro 1 1466 23.96% 28.12%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-04-25 33.1 @ Hillerod 3 1527 65.12% HB Koge 0 1358 13.66% 21.22%
2 2025-03-01 35.1 @ Kolding IF 3 1499 58.71% B.93 0 1387 16.94% 24.35%
3 2024-11-22 35.3 @ Hvidovre 2 1489 61.72% FC Roskilde 0 1351 15.34% 22.94%
4 2024-08-11 35.9 @ Fredericia 4 1490 55.21% Esbjerg 0 1406 18.99% 25.80%
5 2024-11-10 36.3 @ Esbjerg 2 1442 55.34% FC Roskilde 0 1358 18.91% 25.75%
6 2024-11-01 37.2 @ Horsens 3 1472 51.86% B.93 0 1416 21.15% 26.99%
7 2024-07-19 38.5 @ Vendsyssel 3 1461 48.22% FC Roskilde 0 1433 23.73% 28.05%
8 2024-08-24 39.0 @ Esbjerg 4 1412 52.32% HB Koge 1 1352 20.84% 26.84%
9 2024-08-09 39.1 @ Hvidovre 4 1482 48.68% B.93 0 1450 23.39% 27.93%
10 2024-11-30 39.2 Fredericia 2 1561 55.32% @ FC Roskilde 0 1345 18.92% 25.76%
11 2024-08-02 39.4 @ Hillerod 2 1490 54.48% FC Roskilde 0 1413 19.44% 26.08%
12 2024-10-04 39.5 @ Hobro 4 1462 55.82% FC Roskilde 1 1374 18.62% 25.56%
13 2024-08-20 40.1 B.93 4 1425 32.69% @ HB Koge 0 1377 37.69% 29.62%
14 2024-09-28 40.1 @ Fredericia 3 1513 51.66% B.93 0 1458 21.29% 27.06%
15 2025-04-20 40.1 @ Hillerod 5 1522 66.05% FC Roskilde 2 1345 13.23% 20.73%
16 2025-04-25 40.1 @ B.93 5 1385 36.69% Hobro 0 1440 33.65% 29.66%
17 2025-04-04 40.4 @ Hillerod 2 1513 55.40% Hobro 0 1428 18.88% 25.73%
18 2025-05-16 40.6 @ Vendsyssel 2 1387 40.86% Hobro 0 1413 29.76% 29.38%
19 2024-09-20 40.8 Vendsyssel 2 1423 37.54% @ HB Koge 0 1340 32.83% 29.63%
20 2024-11-08 41.3 Fredericia 5 1533 44.03% @ B.93 0 1404 27.03% 28.94%
21 2024-10-18 41.6 Odense 5 1586 55.89% @ FC Roskilde 1 1366 18.58% 25.54%
22 2024-07-26 41.7 Odense 4 1538 42.87% @ HB Koge 0 1418 28.01% 29.12%
23 2024-08-30 42.0 @ Odense 2 1605 63.97% Vendsyssel 0 1447 14.21% 21.82%
24 2025-04-13 42.0 Hillerod 2 1520 45.51% @ HB Koge 0 1380 25.83% 28.66%
25 2025-04-21 42.7 Hobro 2 1428 33.88% @ HB Koge 0 1371 36.45% 29.67%