1891-92 The Football League Season

182 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Sunderland

42 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Darwen

Biggest Overachiever

Sunderland

11.33 points above expected

42 points · 30.67 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Darwen

14.68 points below expected

11 points · 25.68 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Sunderland	26	21	0	5	42	93	36	+57	30.7	+11.33
2	Preston North End	26	18	1	7	37	61	31	+30	29.1	+7.85
3	Bolton Wanderers	26	17	2	7	36	51	37	+14	26.8	+9.16
4	Aston Villa	26	15	0	11	30	89	56	+33	27.4	+2.61
5	Everton	26	12	4	10	28	49	49	0	26.8	+1.17
6	Wolverhampton	26	11	4	11	26	59	46	+13	25.6	+0.45
7	Notts County	26	11	4	11	26	55	51	+4	26.2	-0.19
8	Burnley	26	11	4	11	26	49	45	+4	25.7	+0.30
9	Blackburn Rovers	26	10	6	10	26	58	65	-7	26.3	-0.32
10	Derby County	26	10	4	12	24	46	52	-6	25.4	-1.36
11	Accrington	26	8	4	14	20	40	78	-38	23.7	-3.70
12	West Brom	26	6	6	14	18	51	58	-7	25.4	-7.39
13	Stoke City	26	5	4	17	14	38	61	-23	19.2	-5.23
14	Darwen	26	4	3	19	11	38	112	-74	25.7	-14.68

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Sunderland	1955	42	30.67	+11.33	100.0%	17	23	27	31	33	37	40
Preston North End	1894	37	29.15	+7.85	95.0%	18	22	26	29	32	36	41
Bolton Wanderers	1860	36	26.84	+9.16	98.0%	16	20	23	27	30	35	38
Aston Villa	1851	30	27.39	+2.61	80.0%	17	21	25	27	30	33	37
Everton	1830	28	26.83	+1.17	64.0%	19	19	24	26	30	33	39
Wolverhampton	1827	26	25.55	+0.45	63.0%	16	19	24	26	27	31	37
Notts County	1825	26	26.19	-0.19	54.0%	17	19	23	26	29	33	36
Blackburn Rovers	1817	26	26.32	-0.32	55.0%	16	18	24	26	30	33	35
Burnley	1804	26	25.70	+0.30	58.0%	15	17	23	26	29	32	34
Derby County	1796	24	25.36	-1.36	42.0%	14	18	22	25	28	33	39
West Brom	1771	18	25.39	-7.39	6.0%	15	18	23	25	28	31	33
Accrington	1746	20	23.70	-3.70	20.0%	15	17	21	24	26	29	31
Darwen	1712	11	25.68	-14.68	0.0%	14	18	23	26	28	33	40
Stoke City	1670	14	19.23	-5.23	11.0%	7	11	17	19	23	26	29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ACC	AV	BR	BW	BUR	DAR	DC	EVE	NC	PNE	SC	SUN	WB	WOL
Accrington	—	1-0-1 2.38	1-1-0 2.55	1-0-1 2.62	1-0-1 2.82	0-1-1 2.50	0-1-1 2.79	0-1-1 2.53	1-0-1 2.60	0-0-2 2.14	1-0-1 3.32	0-0-2 2.12	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.80
Aston Villa	1-0-1 3.40	—	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 3.10	2-0-0 2.93	1-0-1 3.06	0-0-2 3.02	1-0-1 2.98	2-0-0 2.72	2-0-0 3.63	1-0-1 2.57	2-0-0 3.11	0-0-2 3.14
Blackburn Rovers	0-1-1 3.23	1-0-1 2.84	—	1-0-1 2.82	0-1-1 3.07	2-0-0 2.84	0-1-1 3.09	0-1-1 2.84	1-1-0 2.89	0-0-2 2.80	2-0-0 3.68	1-0-1 2.46	1-1-0 3.09	1-0-1 3.03
Bolton Wanderers	1-0-1 3.16	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.96	—	2-0-0 3.08	2-0-0 2.67	1-0-1 3.19	2-0-0 2.89	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.79	1-1-0 3.78	1-0-1 2.57	1-1-0 3.23	2-0-0 3.04
Burnley	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.68	1-1-0 2.71	0-0-2 2.70	—	2-0-0 3.07	1-0-1 2.96	1-1-0 2.74	1-0-1 2.79	1-0-1 2.65	1-0-1 3.50	0-0-2 2.19	1-0-1 3.09	0-2-0 2.84
Darwen	1-1-0 3.28	0-0-2 2.85	0-0-2 2.94	0-0-2 3.11	0-0-2 2.70	—	1-0-1 3.05	1-0-1 2.93	0-0-2 2.81	0-0-2 2.31	1-0-1 3.73	0-0-2 1.93	0-1-1 2.72	0-1-1 2.92
Derby County	1-1-0 2.98	1-0-1 2.72	1-1-0 2.69	1-0-1 2.59	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.73	—	1-0-1 2.69	1-0-1 2.72	0-0-2 2.45	0-1-1 3.47	0-0-2 2.21	0-1-1 3.08	2-0-0 2.84
Everton	1-1-0 3.25	2-0-0 2.76	1-1-0 2.94	0-0-2 2.89	0-1-1 3.04	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 3.10	—	2-0-0 2.91	0-1-1 2.87	2-0-0 3.78	0-0-2 2.64	1-0-1 3.16	1-0-1 3.09
Notts County	1-0-1 3.18	1-0-1 2.80	0-1-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.99	2-0-0 2.97	1-0-1 3.06	0-0-2 2.87	—	1-0-1 2.71	1-1-0 3.64	1-0-1 2.40	1-1-0 3.08	0-1-1 3.04
Preston North End	2-0-0 3.65	0-0-2 3.06	2-0-0 2.98	1-0-1 2.99	1-0-1 3.13	2-0-0 3.48	2-0-0 3.34	1-1-0 2.91	1-0-1 3.07	—	2-0-0 3.83	1-0-1 2.73	2-0-0 3.49	1-0-1 3.23
Stoke City	1-0-1 2.46	0-0-2 2.15	0-0-2 2.10	0-1-1 2.00	1-0-1 2.29	1-0-1 2.06	1-1-0 2.31	0-0-2 2.00	0-1-1 2.14	0-0-2 1.96	—	0-0-2 1.72	1-1-0 2.30	0-0-2 2.29
Sunderland	2-0-0 3.66	1-0-1 3.21	1-0-1 3.32	1-0-1 3.21	2-0-0 3.59	2-0-0 3.85	2-0-0 3.57	2-0-0 3.14	1-0-1 3.38	1-0-1 3.05	2-0-0 4.08	—	2-0-0 3.31	2-0-0 3.39
West Brom	1-0-1 2.88	0-0-2 2.67	0-1-1 2.70	0-1-1 2.55	1-0-1 2.69	1-1-0 3.06	1-1-0 2.70	1-0-1 2.62	0-1-1 2.70	0-0-2 2.30	0-1-1 3.48	0-0-2 2.48	—	1-0-1 2.76
Wolverhampton	1-0-1 2.98	2-0-0 2.64	1-0-1 2.75	0-0-2 2.74	0-2-0 2.94	1-1-0 2.85	0-0-2 2.94	1-0-1 2.69	1-1-0 2.74	1-0-1 2.55	2-0-0 3.50	0-0-2 2.39	1-0-1 3.02	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	0.55%	4.95%	3.30%	3.30%	3.30%	2.75%	18.13%
1	4.95%	6.59%	5.49%	4.40%	2.47%	3.85%	27.75%
2	3.30%	5.49%	4.40%	2.47%	1.65%	1.92%	19.23%
3	3.30%	4.40%	2.47%	1.10%	1.65%	1.92%	14.84%
4	3.30%	2.47%	1.65%	1.65%	—	0.27%	9.34%
5+	2.75%	3.85%	1.92%	1.92%	0.27%	—	10.71%
Total	18.13%	27.75%	19.23%	14.84%	9.34%	10.71%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.13
Mean allowed	2.13
StdDev scored	1.91
StdDev allowed	1.91
Mean total goals/game	4.27
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.161
Sample size (games)	182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	7.69%	—	7.69%	15.38%
1	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	15.38%	7.69%	—	46.15%
2	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	7.69%	15.38%
3	3.85%	—	7.69%	—	—	3.85%	15.38%
4	—	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	7.69%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.38%	11.54%	19.23%	26.92%	7.69%	19.23%	100%

Accrington — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.54
Mean allowed	3.00
StdDev scored	1.17
StdDev allowed	2.71
Mean total goals/game	4.54
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.126
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%
1	3.85%	—	7.69%	—	3.85%	3.85%	19.23%
2	—	7.69%	—	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	19.23%
3	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	7.69%	3.85%	23.08%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	7.69%	19.23%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	34.62%
Total	15.38%	30.77%	19.23%	7.69%	15.38%	11.54%	100%

Aston Villa — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.42
Mean allowed	2.15
StdDev scored	2.56
StdDev allowed	1.74
Mean total goals/game	5.58
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.312
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	11.54%
1	3.85%	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	11.54%	23.08%
2	3.85%	—	15.38%	3.85%	7.69%	—	30.77%
3	—	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	11.54%
4	7.69%	—	—	3.85%	—	—	11.54%
5+	—	—	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	11.54%
Total	15.38%	11.54%	23.08%	26.92%	11.54%	11.54%	100%

Blackburn Rovers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.23
Mean allowed	2.50
StdDev scored	1.53
StdDev allowed	1.70
Mean total goals/game	4.73
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.092
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	3.85%	—	7.69%	—	11.54%
1	11.54%	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	26.92%
2	11.54%	15.38%	—	3.85%	—	—	30.77%
3	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	—	19.23%
4	—	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	7.69%
5+	—	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	34.62%	26.92%	15.38%	7.69%	15.38%	—	100%

Bolton Wanderers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.96
Mean allowed	1.42
StdDev scored	1.28
StdDev allowed	1.45
Mean total goals/game	3.38
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.120
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	19.23%
1	11.54%	7.69%	11.54%	—	—	11.54%	42.31%
2	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	—	11.54%
3	3.85%	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	11.54%
4	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	26.92%	26.92%	23.08%	7.69%	3.85%	11.54%	100%

Burnley — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.88
Mean allowed	1.73
StdDev scored	2.07
StdDev allowed	1.71
Mean total goals/game	3.62
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.179
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	—	—	11.54%	23.08%	38.46%
1	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	11.54%	26.92%
2	3.85%	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	3.85%	15.38%
3	—	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%	11.54%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	7.69%
Total	3.85%	15.38%	11.54%	7.69%	15.38%	46.15%	100%

Darwen — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.46
Mean allowed	4.31
StdDev scored	2.00
StdDev allowed	2.81
Mean total goals/game	5.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.331
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	3.85%	7.69%	—	3.85%	23.08%
1	—	11.54%	11.54%	3.85%	—	3.85%	30.77%
2	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	3.85%	—	15.38%
3	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	19.23%
4	—	—	7.69%	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	11.54%	34.62%	26.92%	15.38%	3.85%	7.69%	100%

Derby County — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.77
Mean allowed	2.00
StdDev scored	1.66
StdDev allowed	1.67
Mean total goals/game	3.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.346
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	—	—	11.54%	—	19.23%
1	7.69%	11.54%	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	34.62%
2	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	11.54%
3	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	15.38%
4	3.85%	—	—	7.69%	—	—	11.54%
5+	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	7.69%
Total	19.23%	34.62%	11.54%	15.38%	11.54%	7.69%	100%

Everton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.88
Mean allowed	1.88
StdDev scored	1.58
StdDev allowed	1.58
Mean total goals/game	3.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.181
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	26.92%
1	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	3.85%	19.23%
2	7.69%	3.85%	11.54%	—	—	—	23.08%
3	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
4	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%	7.69%
5+	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	15.38%
Total	23.08%	19.23%	30.77%	7.69%	7.69%	11.54%	100%

Notts County — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.12
Mean allowed	1.96
StdDev scored	2.18
StdDev allowed	1.71
Mean total goals/game	4.08
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.418
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	19.23%
1	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	19.23%
2	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	11.54%
3	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	19.23%
4	15.38%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	23.08%
5+	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	34.62%	30.77%	19.23%	11.54%	3.85%	—	100%

Preston North End — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.35
Mean allowed	1.19
StdDev scored	1.74
StdDev allowed	1.17
Mean total goals/game	3.54
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.506
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	19.23%	—	3.85%	—	—	23.08%
1	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	11.54%	11.54%	—	38.46%
2	—	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	15.38%
3	3.85%	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	7.69%	19.23%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	7.69%	38.46%	7.69%	26.92%	11.54%	7.69%	100%

Stoke City — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.46
Mean allowed	2.35
StdDev scored	1.27
StdDev allowed	1.92
Mean total goals/game	3.81
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.211
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
1	3.85%	—	—	7.69%	—	—	11.54%
2	—	15.38%	—	—	—	—	15.38%
3	—	7.69%	—	—	3.85%	3.85%	15.38%
4	11.54%	15.38%	—	—	—	—	26.92%
5+	3.85%	11.54%	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	26.92%
Total	19.23%	53.85%	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	100%

Sunderland — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.58
Mean allowed	1.38
StdDev scored	1.92
StdDev allowed	1.27
Mean total goals/game	4.96
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.177
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	—	23.08%
1	3.85%	11.54%	7.69%	—	—	3.85%	26.92%
2	—	—	11.54%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	26.92%
3	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	—	7.69%
4	3.85%	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	11.54%
5+	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	11.54%	23.08%	26.92%	15.38%	15.38%	7.69%	100%

West Brom — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.96
Mean allowed	2.23
StdDev scored	2.41
StdDev allowed	1.48
Mean total goals/game	4.19
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.278
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
1	—	3.85%	11.54%	7.69%	—	—	23.08%
2	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	26.92%
3	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	—	11.54%
4	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	3.85%	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
Total	15.38%	30.77%	26.92%	19.23%	3.85%	3.85%	100%

Wolverhampton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.27
Mean allowed	1.77
StdDev scored	1.80
StdDev allowed	1.27
Mean total goals/game	4.04
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.198
Games played	26

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sunderland	42	30.7	+11.33
2	Bolton Wanderers	36	26.8	+9.16
3	Preston North End	37	29.1	+7.85
4	Aston Villa	30	27.4	+2.61
5	Everton	28	26.8	+1.17

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Darwen	11	25.7	-14.68
2	West Brom	18	25.4	-7.39
3	Stoke City	14	19.2	-5.23
4	Accrington	20	23.7	-3.70
5	Derby County	24	25.4	-1.36

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Preston North End	13	Oct 24 – Mar 5	1 in 13,732
2	Sunderland	13	Nov 14 – Apr 2	1 in 1,890
3	Bolton Wanderers	6	Oct 10 – Nov 7	1 in 257
4	Aston Villa	5	Oct 24 – Nov 21	1 in 123
5	Notts County	4	Feb 6 – Mar 1	1 in 23

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Darwen	10	Dec 5 – Apr 4	1 in 2,540
2	West Brom	5	Nov 2 – Nov 28	1 in 102
3	Derby County	4	Nov 28 – Dec 19	1 in 43
4	Stoke City	8	Dec 25 – Apr 2	1 in 28
5	Aston Villa	3	Oct 3 – Oct 17	1 in 12

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Preston North End	15	Oct 3 – Mar 5	1 in 2,817
2	Sunderland	13	Nov 14 – Apr 2	1 in 158
3	Bolton Wanderers	7	Oct 10 – Nov 14	1 in 54
4	Aston Villa	5	Oct 24 – Nov 21	1 in 30
5	Wolverhampton	5	Dec 28 – Apr 2	1 in 17

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Darwen	13	Dec 5 – Apr 23	1 in 1,302
2	West Brom	10	Oct 3 – Nov 28	1 in 875
3	Derby County	7	Jan 9 – Apr 2	1 in 47
4	Wolverhampton	5	Sep 19 – Oct 10	1 in 18
5	Stoke City	9	Dec 25 – Apr 11	1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Sunderland	35.00%	11.00%	19.00%	6.00%	7.00%	7.00%	3.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%
Preston North End	21.00%	12.00%	14.00%	10.00%	7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	8.00%	4.00%	4.00%	4.00%	1.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Bolton Wanderers	9.00%	8.00%	8.00%	12.00%	5.00%	7.00%	8.00%	12.00%	1.00%	5.00%	8.00%	8.00%	7.00%	2.00%
Aston Villa	9.00%	11.00%	10.00%	9.00%	7.00%	13.00%	11.00%	6.00%	8.00%	2.00%	7.00%	6.00%	—	1.00%
Everton	5.00%	10.00%	8.00%	9.00%	12.00%	7.00%	5.00%	9.00%	8.00%	8.00%	4.00%	5.00%	7.00%	3.00%
Wolverhampton	—	5.00%	4.00%	11.00%	2.00%	11.00%	17.00%	7.00%	11.00%	9.00%	9.00%	6.00%	5.00%	3.00%
Notts County	3.00%	10.00%	5.00%	10.00%	14.00%	4.00%	3.00%	8.00%	10.00%	7.00%	8.00%	8.00%	7.00%	3.00%
Burnley	2.00%	7.00%	7.00%	9.00%	9.00%	6.00%	8.00%	6.00%	13.00%	6.00%	8.00%	6.00%	9.00%	4.00%
Blackburn Rovers	6.00%	8.00%	7.00%	5.00%	10.00%	6.00%	4.00%	6.00%	13.00%	14.00%	3.00%	6.00%	8.00%	4.00%
Derby County	6.00%	4.00%	7.00%	4.00%	6.00%	7.00%	12.00%	7.00%	4.00%	6.00%	10.00%	11.00%	9.00%	7.00%
Accrington	—	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%	4.00%	6.00%	7.00%	6.00%	8.00%	16.00%	5.00%	17.00%	12.00%	10.00%
West Brom	1.00%	4.00%	5.00%	4.00%	9.00%	8.00%	6.00%	8.00%	10.00%	11.00%	15.00%	8.00%	6.00%	5.00%
Stoke City	—	—	—	—	2.00%	1.00%	—	4.00%	5.00%	3.00%	8.00%	8.00%	23.00%	46.00%
Darwen	3.00%	7.00%	3.00%	8.00%	6.00%	11.00%	11.00%	9.00%	4.00%	8.00%	7.00%	9.00%	4.00%	10.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Sunderland	94.0%	6.0%
Preston North End	91.0%	9.0%
Aston Villa	86.0%	14.0%
Everton	81.0%	19.0%
Blackburn Rovers	79.0%	21.0%
Wolverhampton	77.0%	23.0%
Bolton Wanderers	75.0%	25.0%
Notts County	74.0%	26.0%
Burnley	73.0%	27.0%
Darwen	70.0%	30.0%
West Brom	66.0%	34.0%
Derby County	63.0%	37.0%
Accrington	56.0%	44.0%
Stoke City	15.0%	85.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1891-09-05	Burnley	W 1-0	1791	1795	69.3%	11.1%	19.7%	+1.5	3
1891-09-05	@ Accrington	L 0-1	1795	1791	19.7%	11.1%	69.3%	-1.5	0
1891-09-05	Blackburn Rovers	W 5-1	1808	1828	67.8%	11.1%	21.1%	+4.9	3
1891-09-05	@ Aston Villa	L 1-5	1828	1808	21.1%	11.1%	67.8%	-4.9	0
1891-09-05	Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1862	1814	73.8%	10.8%	15.4%	-4.9	0
1891-09-05	@ Darwen	W 2-1	1814	1862	15.4%	10.8%	73.8%	+4.9	3
1891-09-05	Preston North End	W 2-0	1821	1846	67.3%	11.1%	21.5%	+3.1	3
1891-09-05	@ Notts County	L 0-2	1846	1821	21.5%	11.1%	67.3%	-3.1	0
1891-09-05	Derby County	W 2-1	1693	1793	58.8%	11.3%	29.9%	+2.1	3
1891-09-05	@ Stoke City	L 1-2	1793	1693	29.9%	11.3%	58.8%	-2.1	0
1891-09-05	Wolverhampton	W 5-2	1869	1804	75.1%	10.7%	14.2%	+2.2	3
1891-09-05	@ Sunderland	L 2-5	1804	1869	14.2%	10.7%	75.1%	-2.2	0
1891-09-05	Everton	W 4-0	1798	1836	66.0%	11.2%	22.9%	+6.3	3
1891-09-05	@ West Brom	L 0-4	1836	1798	22.9%	11.2%	66.0%	-6.3	0
1891-09-07	Preston North End	W 2-0	1794	1842	64.8%	11.2%	24.0%	+3.5	3
1891-09-07	@ Burnley	L 0-2	1842	1794	24.0%	11.2%	64.8%	-3.5	0
1891-09-07	Darwen	W 5-3	1830	1857	67.1%	11.1%	21.8%	+2.3	3
1891-09-07	@ Everton	L 3-5	1857	1830	21.8%	11.1%	67.1%	-2.3	0
1891-09-12	West Brom	W 5-1	1813	1805	70.5%	11.0%	18.5%	+4.3	6
1891-09-12	@ Aston Villa	L 1-5	1805	1813	18.5%	11.0%	70.5%	-4.3	3
1891-09-12	Notts County	W 5-4	1823	1824	69.6%	11.0%	19.4%	+1.3	3
1891-09-12	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 4-5	1824	1823	19.4%	11.0%	69.6%	-1.3	3
1891-09-12	Accrington	W 3-1	1791	1792	69.6%	11.0%	19.3%	+2.5	3
1891-09-12	@ Derby County	L 1-3	1792	1791	19.3%	11.0%	69.6%	-2.5	3
1891-09-12	Sunderland	W 3-1	1839	1871	66.6%	11.2%	22.3%	+2.8	3
1891-09-12	@ Preston North End	L 1-3	1871	1839	22.3%	11.2%	66.6%	-2.8	3
1891-09-12	Wolverhampton	L 1-3	1695	1801	58.1%	11.3%	30.6%	-6.8	3
1891-09-12	@ Stoke City	W 3-1	1801	1695	30.6%	11.3%	58.1%	+6.8	3
1891-09-12	Darwen	W 1-0	1819	1854	66.2%	11.2%	22.6%	+1.8	6
1891-09-12	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-1	1854	1819	22.6%	11.2%	66.2%	-1.8	0
1891-09-14	Accrington	W 5-0	1808	1790	71.4%	10.9%	17.7%	+6.1	6
1891-09-14	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-5	1790	1808	17.7%	10.9%	71.4%	-6.1	3
1891-09-19	Sunderland	W 4-3	1821	1868	65.0%	11.2%	23.8%	+1.6	9
1891-09-19	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 3-4	1868	1821	23.8%	11.2%	65.0%	-1.6	3
1891-09-19	Stoke City	W 4-1	1797	1688	78.2%	10.4%	11.4%	+2.1	6
1891-09-19	@ Burnley	L 1-4	1688	1797	11.4%	10.4%	78.2%	-2.1	3
1891-09-19	Notts County	W 3-0	1794	1823	66.8%	11.1%	22.0%	+4.7	6
1891-09-19	@ Derby County	L 0-3	1823	1794	22.0%	11.1%	66.8%	-4.6	3
1891-09-19	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-1	1832	1824	70.4%	11.0%	18.6%	+2.4	6
1891-09-19	@ Everton	L 1-3	1824	1832	18.6%	11.0%	70.4%	-2.4	3
1891-09-19	Aston Villa	L 0-1	1842	1818	71.9%	10.9%	17.2%	-5.1	3
1891-09-19	@ Preston North End	W 1-0	1818	1842	17.2%	10.9%	71.9%	+5.1	9
1891-09-19	Wolverhampton	W 4-3	1800	1814	68.4%	11.1%	20.5%	+1.4	6
1891-09-19	@ West Brom	L 3-4	1814	1800	20.5%	11.1%	68.4%	-1.4	6
1891-09-19	Accrington	W 5-2	1853	1784	75.4%	10.7%	13.9%	+2.2	3
1891-09-19	@ Darwen	L 2-5	1784	1853	13.9%	10.7%	75.4%	-2.2	3
1891-09-21	Burnley	W 5-1	1837	1799	73.0%	10.8%	16.2%	+3.8	6
1891-09-21	@ Preston North End	L 1-5	1799	1837	16.2%	10.8%	73.0%	-3.8	6
1891-09-26	Preston North End	W 3-0	1822	1840	68.0%	11.1%	20.9%	+4.4	12
1891-09-26	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-3	1840	1822	20.9%	11.1%	68.0%	-4.4	6
1891-09-26	Stoke City	D 1-1	1818	1686	79.6%	10.2%	10.1%	-1.3	4
1891-09-26	@ Notts County	D 1-1	1686	1818	10.1%	10.2%	79.6%	+1.3	4
1891-09-26	Derby County	L 1-3	1813	1798	71.0%	11.0%	18.0%	-8.2	6
1891-09-26	@ Wolverhampton	W 3-1	1798	1813	18.0%	11.0%	71.0%	+8.2	9
1891-09-26	Everton	D 1-1	1781	1834	64.3%	11.2%	24.4%	-0.7	4
1891-09-26	@ Accrington	D 1-1	1834	1781	24.4%	11.2%	64.3%	+0.7	7
1891-09-26	Burnley	D 3-3	1822	1796	72.1%	10.9%	17.0%	-0.6	4
1891-09-26	@ Blackburn Rovers	D 3-3	1796	1822	17.0%	10.9%	72.1%	+0.6	7
1891-09-28	Sunderland	W 5-3	1823	1866	65.4%	11.2%	23.5%	+2.5	12
1891-09-28	@ Aston Villa	L 3-5	1866	1823	23.5%	11.2%	65.4%	-2.5	3
1891-09-28	Darwen	D 2-2	1805	1855	64.7%	11.2%	24.1%	-0.5	7
1891-09-28	@ Wolverhampton	D 2-2	1855	1805	24.1%	11.2%	64.7%	+0.5	4
1891-10-01	Bolton Wanderers	W 2-0	1817	1827	68.8%	11.1%	20.1%	+2.9	7
1891-10-01	@ Notts County	L 0-2	1827	1817	20.1%	11.1%	68.8%	-3.0	12
1891-10-03	Blackburn Rovers	D 2-2	1802	1822	67.8%	11.1%	21.1%	-0.6	7
1891-10-03	@ West Brom	D 2-2	1822	1802	21.1%	11.1%	67.8%	+0.6	5
1891-10-03	Aston Villa	W 4-2	1807	1825	67.9%	11.1%	21.0%	+2.4	12
1891-10-03	@ Derby County	L 2-4	1825	1807	21.0%	11.1%	67.9%	-2.4	12
1891-10-03	Everton	W 2-1	1864	1835	72.3%	10.9%	16.8%	+1.2	6
1891-10-03	@ Sunderland	L 1-2	1835	1864	16.8%	10.9%	72.3%	-1.2	7
1891-10-03	Accrington	L 3-4	1824	1781	73.4%	10.8%	15.7%	-4.6	12
1891-10-03	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 4-3	1781	1824	15.7%	10.8%	73.4%	+4.6	7
1891-10-03	Stoke City	W 9-3	1855	1687	81.6%	10.0%	8.5%	+2.1	7
1891-10-03	@ Darwen	L 3-9	1687	1855	8.5%	10.0%	81.6%	-2.1	4
1891-10-03	Wolverhampton	W 2-0	1836	1804	72.5%	10.9%	16.6%	+2.4	9
1891-10-03	@ Preston North End	L 0-2	1804	1836	16.6%	10.9%	72.5%	-2.4	7
1891-10-10	Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1823	1819	70.0%	11.0%	18.9%	-4.7	12
1891-10-10	@ Aston Villa	W 2-1	1819	1823	18.9%	11.0%	70.0%	+4.7	15
1891-10-10	Wolverhampton	W 2-0	1822	1802	71.5%	10.9%	17.5%	+2.6	8
1891-10-10	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-2	1802	1822	17.5%	10.9%	71.5%	-2.6	7
1891-10-10	Preston North End	D 1-1	1834	1838	69.3%	11.1%	19.7%	-0.9	8
1891-10-10	@ Everton	D 1-1	1838	1834	19.7%	11.1%	69.3%	+0.9	10
1891-10-10	West Brom	W 4-0	1820	1801	71.4%	10.9%	17.6%	+4.9	10
1891-10-10	@ Notts County	L 0-4	1801	1820	17.6%	10.9%	71.4%	-4.9	7
1891-10-10	Burnley	W 3-0	1685	1796	57.5%	11.3%	31.2%	+6.4	7
1891-10-10	@ Stoke City	L 0-3	1796	1685	31.2%	11.3%	57.5%	-6.4	7
1891-10-10	Darwen	D 1-1	1785	1857	62.2%	11.2%	26.5%	-0.6	8
1891-10-10	@ Accrington	D 1-1	1857	1785	26.5%	11.2%	62.2%	+0.6	8
1891-10-17	Sunderland	L 2-5	1796	1865	62.6%	11.2%	26.2%	-8.9	7
1891-10-17	@ West Brom	W 5-2	1865	1796	26.2%	11.2%	62.6%	+8.9	9
1891-10-17	Everton	W 1-0	1824	1833	68.8%	11.1%	20.1%	+1.6	18
1891-10-17	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-1	1833	1824	20.1%	11.1%	68.8%	-1.6	8
1891-10-17	Aston Villa	W 4-1	1790	1818	66.9%	11.1%	21.9%	+3.9	10
1891-10-17	@ Burnley	L 1-4	1818	1790	21.9%	11.1%	66.9%	-3.9	12
1891-10-17	Stoke City	D 3-3	1809	1692	78.7%	10.4%	10.9%	-0.8	13
1891-10-17	@ Derby County	D 3-3	1692	1809	10.9%	10.4%	78.7%	+0.8	8
1891-10-17	Notts County	W 2-1	1799	1825	67.2%	11.1%	21.7%	+1.6	10
1891-10-17	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-2	1825	1799	21.7%	11.1%	67.2%	-1.6	10
1891-10-17	Blackburn Rovers	L 3-5	1858	1825	72.6%	10.9%	16.5%	-7.1	8
1891-10-17	@ Darwen	W 5-3	1825	1858	16.5%	10.9%	72.6%	+7.1	11
1891-10-24	West Brom	W 4-0	1874	1787	76.7%	10.6%	12.7%	+3.6	12
1891-10-24	@ Sunderland	L 0-4	1787	1874	12.7%	10.6%	76.7%	-3.6	7
1891-10-24	Wolverhampton	W 3-2	1785	1801	68.2%	11.1%	20.7%	+1.4	11
1891-10-24	@ Accrington	L 2-3	1801	1785	20.7%	11.1%	68.2%	-1.4	10
1891-10-24	Preston North End	L 2-4	1832	1839	69.0%	11.1%	19.9%	-7.2	11
1891-10-24	@ Blackburn Rovers	W 4-2	1839	1832	19.9%	11.1%	69.0%	+7.2	13
1891-10-24	Burnley	W 2-0	1825	1794	72.5%	10.9%	16.6%	+2.4	21
1891-10-24	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-2	1794	1825	16.6%	10.9%	72.5%	-2.5	10
1891-10-24	Everton	L 0-3	1808	1831	67.5%	11.1%	21.4%	-13.1	13
1891-10-24	@ Derby County	W 3-0	1831	1808	21.4%	11.1%	67.5%	+13.1	11
1891-10-24	Aston Villa	L 2-3	1692	1814	56.2%	11.3%	32.5%	-3.6	8
1891-10-24	@ Stoke City	W 3-2	1814	1692	32.5%	11.3%	56.2%	+3.6	15
1891-10-24	Darwen	W 5-0	1823	1851	67.0%	11.1%	21.8%	+7.4	13
1891-10-24	@ Notts County	L 0-5	1851	1823	21.8%	11.1%	67.0%	-7.4	8
1891-10-31	Wolverhampton	W 2-1	1795	1799	69.3%	11.1%	19.6%	+1.4	16
1891-10-31	@ Derby County	L 1-2	1799	1795	19.6%	11.1%	69.3%	-1.4	10
1891-10-31	Blackburn Rovers	W 4-2	1828	1825	70.0%	11.0%	19.0%	+2.2	24
1891-10-31	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 2-4	1825	1828	19.0%	11.0%	70.0%	-2.2	11
1891-10-31	Aston Villa	L 1-5	1843	1818	72.0%	10.9%	17.1%	-15.3	8
1891-10-31	@ Darwen	W 5-1	1818	1843	17.1%	10.9%	72.0%	+15.3	18
1891-10-31	Everton	W 4-0	1847	1845	69.9%	11.0%	19.1%	+5.3	16
1891-10-31	@ Preston North End	L 0-4	1845	1847	19.1%	11.0%	69.9%	-5.3	11
1891-10-31	Accrington	W 4-1	1878	1786	77.0%	10.5%	12.4%	+2.2	15
1891-10-31	@ Sunderland	L 1-4	1786	1878	12.4%	10.5%	77.0%	-2.3	11
1891-10-31	Notts County	D 2-2	1784	1831	65.0%	11.2%	23.8%	-0.5	8
1891-10-31	@ West Brom	D 2-2	1831	1784	23.8%	11.2%	65.0%	+0.5	14
1891-11-02	Bolton Wanderers	L 0-2	1783	1830	65.0%	11.2%	23.8%	-8.7	8
1891-11-02	@ West Brom	W 2-0	1830	1783	23.8%	11.2%	65.0%	+8.7	27
1891-11-07	Sunderland	W 3-1	1823	1880	63.9%	11.2%	24.9%	+3.1	14
1891-11-07	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 1-3	1880	1823	24.9%	11.2%	63.9%	-3.1	15
1891-11-07	Preston North End	L 0-1	1689	1852	50.7%	11.3%	38.0%	-3.6	8
1891-11-07	@ Stoke City	W 1-0	1852	1689	38.0%	11.3%	50.7%	+3.6	19
1891-11-07	Burnley	D 0-0	1798	1791	70.3%	11.0%	18.7%	-1.0	11
1891-11-07	@ Wolverhampton	D 0-0	1791	1798	18.7%	11.0%	70.3%	+1.0	11
1891-11-07	Bolton Wanderers	L 0-3	1784	1839	64.1%	11.2%	24.6%	-12.5	11
1891-11-07	@ Accrington	W 3-0	1839	1784	24.6%	11.2%	64.1%	+12.5	30
1891-11-07	Notts County	W 5-1	1833	1831	69.8%	11.0%	19.1%	+4.4	21
1891-11-07	@ Aston Villa	L 1-5	1831	1833	19.1%	11.0%	69.8%	-4.4	14
1891-11-07	West Brom	W 4-3	1839	1774	75.1%	10.7%	14.2%	+1.0	14
1891-11-07	@ Everton	L 3-4	1774	1839	14.2%	10.7%	75.1%	-1.0	8
1891-11-09	Blackburn Rovers	L 0-1	1685	1826	53.7%	11.3%	34.9%	-3.8	8
1891-11-09	@ Stoke City	W 1-0	1826	1685	34.9%	11.3%	53.7%	+3.8	17
1891-11-14	Derby County	W 7-1	1877	1797	76.2%	10.6%	13.2%	+4.5	18
1891-11-14	@ Sunderland	L 1-7	1797	1877	13.2%	10.6%	76.2%	-4.5	16
1891-11-14	Stoke City	D 1-1	1851	1681	81.7%	10.0%	8.4%	-1.3	31
1891-11-14	@ Bolton Wanderers	D 1-1	1681	1851	8.4%	10.0%	81.7%	+1.3	9
1891-11-14	Accrington	W 2-1	1792	1771	71.6%	10.9%	17.5%	+1.3	14
1891-11-14	@ Burnley	L 1-2	1771	1792	17.5%	10.9%	71.6%	-1.3	11
1891-11-14	Everton	W 3-1	1828	1840	68.6%	11.1%	20.4%	+2.6	11
1891-11-14	@ Darwen	L 1-3	1840	1828	20.4%	11.1%	68.6%	-2.6	14
1891-11-14	Wolverhampton	D 2-2	1827	1797	72.4%	10.9%	16.7%	-0.7	15
1891-11-14	@ Notts County	D 2-2	1797	1827	16.7%	10.9%	72.4%	+0.7	12
1891-11-14	Aston Villa	L 0-3	1773	1838	63.1%	11.2%	25.7%	-12.3	8
1891-11-14	@ West Brom	W 3-0	1838	1773	25.7%	11.2%	63.1%	+12.3	24
1891-11-14	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-2	1855	1829	72.0%	10.9%	17.1%	+1.2	22
1891-11-14	@ Preston North End	L 2-3	1829	1855	17.1%	10.9%	72.0%	-1.2	17
1891-11-21	Burnley	W 2-1	1881	1794	76.8%	10.6%	12.7%	+0.9	21
1891-11-21	@ Sunderland	L 1-2	1794	1881	12.7%	10.6%	76.8%	-0.9	14
1891-11-21	Notts County	W 2-0	1770	1826	64.0%	11.2%	24.8%	+3.6	14
1891-11-21	@ Accrington	L 0-2	1826	1770	24.8%	11.2%	64.0%	-3.6	15
1891-11-21	Stoke City	W 2-1	1850	1683	81.5%	10.0%	8.5%	+0.6	27
1891-11-21	@ Aston Villa	L 1-2	1683	1850	8.5%	10.0%	81.5%	-0.6	9
1891-11-21	Darwen	W 7-0	1792	1831	65.9%	11.2%	22.9%	+10.7	19
1891-11-21	@ Derby County	L 0-7	1831	1792	22.9%	11.2%	65.9%	-10.7	11
1891-11-21	Preston North End	L 1-2	1761	1857	59.4%	11.3%	29.3%	-4.0	8
1891-11-21	@ West Brom	W 2-1	1857	1761	29.3%	11.3%	59.4%	+4.0	25
1891-11-21	Everton	W 5-1	1797	1838	65.7%	11.2%	23.1%	+5.3	15
1891-11-21	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-5	1838	1797	23.1%	11.2%	65.7%	-5.3	14
1891-11-21	Bolton Wanderers	W 4-0	1828	1850	67.6%	11.1%	21.3%	+5.9	20
1891-11-21	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-4	1850	1828	21.3%	11.1%	67.6%	-5.9	31
1891-11-28	West Brom	W 3-2	1793	1757	72.8%	10.9%	16.3%	+1.1	17
1891-11-28	@ Burnley	L 2-3	1757	1793	16.3%	10.9%	72.8%	-1.1	8
1891-11-28	Derby County	W 2-0	1820	1803	71.3%	10.9%	17.8%	+2.6	14
1891-11-28	@ Darwen	L 0-2	1803	1820	17.8%	10.9%	71.3%	-2.6	19
1891-11-28	Aston Villa	W 5-1	1832	1850	68.0%	11.1%	20.9%	+4.8	17
1891-11-28	@ Everton	L 1-5	1850	1832	20.9%	11.1%	68.0%	-4.8	27
1891-11-28	Accrington	W 9-0	1823	1774	73.9%	10.8%	15.3%	+9.2	18
1891-11-28	@ Notts County	L 0-9	1774	1823	15.3%	10.8%	73.9%	-9.2	14
1891-11-28	Sunderland	L 1-3	1682	1882	45.5%	11.3%	43.2%	-5.4	9
1891-11-28	@ Stoke City	W 3-1	1882	1682	43.2%	11.3%	45.5%	+5.4	24
1891-11-28	Blackburn Rovers	W 6-1	1803	1834	66.6%	11.2%	22.2%	+6.3	18
1891-11-28	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-6	1834	1803	22.2%	11.2%	66.6%	-6.3	20
1891-11-28	Bolton Wanderers	W 4-0	1861	1844	71.2%	11.0%	17.8%	+5.0	28
1891-11-28	@ Preston North End	L 0-4	1844	1861	17.8%	11.0%	71.2%	-5.0	31
1891-12-05	Preston North End	L 1-2	1800	1866	63.0%	11.2%	25.8%	-4.2	19
1891-12-05	@ Derby County	W 2-1	1866	1800	25.8%	11.2%	63.0%	+4.2	31
1891-12-05	Burnley	W 6-1	1846	1794	74.1%	10.8%	15.1%	+4.3	30
1891-12-05	@ Aston Villa	L 1-6	1794	1846	15.1%	10.8%	74.1%	-4.3	17
1891-12-05	Everton	D 2-2	1828	1837	68.8%	11.1%	20.1%	-0.6	21
1891-12-05	@ Blackburn Rovers	D 2-2	1837	1828	20.1%	11.1%	68.8%	+0.6	18
1891-12-05	Darwen	W 5-1	1677	1823	53.0%	11.3%	35.7%	+7.9	12
1891-12-05	@ Stoke City	L 1-5	1823	1677	35.7%	11.3%	53.0%	-7.9	14
1891-12-05	Notts County	W 4-0	1887	1832	74.4%	10.8%	14.8%	+4.2	27
1891-12-05	@ Sunderland	L 0-4	1832	1887	14.8%	10.8%	74.4%	-4.2	18
1891-12-05	Accrington	W 3-1	1756	1764	68.9%	11.1%	20.0%	+2.5	11
1891-12-05	@ West Brom	L 1-3	1764	1756	20.0%	11.1%	68.9%	-2.5	14
1891-12-05	Wolverhampton	W 3-0	1839	1809	72.4%	10.9%	16.8%	+3.6	34
1891-12-05	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-3	1809	1839	16.8%	10.9%	72.4%	-3.6	18
1891-12-12	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-0	1789	1827	66.0%	11.2%	22.9%	+4.8	20
1891-12-12	@ Burnley	L 0-3	1827	1789	22.9%	11.2%	66.0%	-4.8	21
1891-12-12	Wolverhampton	W 2-1	1838	1805	72.6%	10.9%	16.6%	+1.2	21
1891-12-12	@ Everton	L 1-2	1805	1838	16.6%	10.9%	72.6%	-1.2	18
1891-12-12	Notts County	W 6-0	1870	1828	73.4%	10.8%	15.8%	+6.5	34
1891-12-12	@ Preston North End	L 0-6	1828	1870	15.8%	10.8%	73.4%	-6.5	18
1891-12-12	Bolton Wanderers	L 0-1	1685	1843	51.4%	11.3%	37.3%	-3.7	12
1891-12-12	@ Stoke City	W 1-0	1843	1685	37.3%	11.3%	51.4%	+3.7	37
1891-12-12	Darwen	W 7-0	1892	1815	76.0%	10.6%	13.4%	+6.4	30
1891-12-12	@ Sunderland	L 0-7	1815	1892	13.4%	10.6%	76.0%	-6.4	14
1891-12-12	Derby County	W 4-2	1758	1796	66.0%	11.2%	22.8%	+2.6	14
1891-12-12	@ West Brom	L 2-4	1796	1758	22.8%	11.2%	66.0%	-2.6	19
1891-12-19	Burnley	L 0-1	1793	1794	69.6%	11.0%	19.3%	-5.0	19
1891-12-19	@ Derby County	W 1-0	1794	1793	19.3%	11.0%	69.6%	+5.0	23
1891-12-19	Accrington	W 3-1	1681	1762	61.2%	11.3%	27.6%	+3.4	15
1891-12-19	@ Stoke City	L 1-3	1762	1681	27.6%	11.3%	61.2%	-3.4	14
1891-12-19	Aston Villa	W 2-0	1804	1850	65.1%	11.2%	23.7%	+3.4	21
1891-12-19	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-2	1850	1804	23.7%	11.2%	65.1%	-3.4	30
1891-12-19	West Brom	D 1-1	1846	1761	76.6%	10.6%	12.8%	-1.1	38
1891-12-19	@ Bolton Wanderers	D 1-1	1761	1846	12.8%	10.6%	76.6%	+1.1	15
1891-12-19	Blackburn Rovers	D 2-2	1821	1822	69.6%	11.0%	19.4%	-0.7	19
1891-12-19	@ Notts County	D 2-2	1822	1821	19.4%	11.0%	69.6%	+0.7	22
1891-12-25	Sunderland	L 0-4	1839	1898	63.7%	11.2%	25.1%	-16.2	21
1891-12-25	@ Everton	W 4-0	1898	1839	25.1%	11.2%	63.7%	+16.2	33
1891-12-25	Darwen	W 4-0	1823	1808	71.0%	11.0%	18.0%	+5.0	25
1891-12-25	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-4	1808	1823	18.0%	11.0%	71.0%	-5.0	14
1891-12-25	Stoke City	W 3-2	1876	1684	82.8%	9.8%	7.5%	+0.5	37
1891-12-25	@ Preston North End	L 2-3	1684	1876	7.5%	9.8%	82.8%	-0.5	15
1891-12-26	Darwen	W 7-0	1846	1803	73.5%	10.8%	15.7%	+7.5	33
1891-12-26	@ Aston Villa	L 0-7	1803	1846	15.7%	10.8%	73.5%	-7.5	14
1891-12-26	Accrington	D 2-2	1828	1758	75.5%	10.7%	13.8%	-0.8	26
1891-12-26	@ Blackburn Rovers	D 2-2	1758	1828	13.8%	10.7%	75.5%	+0.8	15
1891-12-26	Sunderland	L 1-3	1808	1914	58.1%	11.3%	30.6%	-6.8	21
1891-12-26	@ Wolverhampton	W 3-1	1914	1808	30.6%	11.3%	58.1%	+6.8	36
1891-12-26	Burnley	W 1-0	1762	1799	66.0%	11.2%	22.8%	+1.8	18
1891-12-26	@ West Brom	L 0-1	1799	1762	22.8%	11.2%	66.0%	-1.8	23
1891-12-26	Bolton Wanderers	W 3-2	1789	1845	63.9%	11.2%	24.8%	+1.7	22
1891-12-26	@ Derby County	L 2-3	1845	1789	24.8%	11.2%	63.9%	-1.7	38
1891-12-28	Everton	L 3-4	1854	1823	72.5%	10.9%	16.7%	-4.5	33
1891-12-28	@ Aston Villa	W 4-3	1823	1854	16.7%	10.9%	72.5%	+4.5	24
1891-12-28	West Brom	W 2-1	1801	1764	72.9%	10.9%	16.2%	+1.2	24
1891-12-28	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-2	1764	1801	16.2%	10.9%	72.9%	-1.2	18
1892-01-01	Preston North End	L 0-4	1796	1877	61.2%	11.3%	27.6%	-15.6	14
1892-01-01	@ Darwen	W 4-0	1877	1796	27.6%	11.3%	61.2%	+15.6	40
1892-01-01	Derby County	W 3-1	1843	1790	74.2%	10.8%	15.0%	+1.9	41
1892-01-01	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-3	1790	1843	15.0%	10.8%	74.2%	-1.9	22
1892-01-02	Preston North End	L 1-3	1759	1892	54.7%	11.3%	34.0%	-6.4	15
1892-01-02	@ Accrington	W 3-1	1892	1759	34.0%	11.3%	54.7%	+6.4	43
1892-01-02	Burnley	D 1-1	1827	1797	72.4%	10.9%	16.8%	-1.0	25
1892-01-02	@ Everton	D 1-1	1797	1827	16.8%	10.9%	72.4%	+1.0	24
1892-01-02	Aston Villa	W 5-2	1821	1849	66.9%	11.1%	22.0%	+3.4	22
1892-01-02	@ Notts County	L 2-5	1849	1821	22.0%	11.1%	66.9%	-3.4	33
1892-01-02	Stoke City	W 4-1	1802	1684	78.8%	10.3%	10.9%	+2.0	27
1892-01-02	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-4	1684	1802	10.9%	10.3%	78.8%	-2.0	15
1892-01-02	Derby County	L 0-2	1827	1788	73.1%	10.8%	16.0%	-9.8	26
1892-01-02	@ Blackburn Rovers	W 2-0	1788	1827	16.0%	10.8%	73.1%	+9.8	25
1892-01-04	Aston Villa	W 3-2	1753	1846	59.7%	11.3%	29.0%	+2.0	18
1892-01-04	@ Accrington	L 2-3	1846	1753	29.0%	11.3%	59.7%	-2.0	33
1892-01-09	Everton	L 1-3	1824	1826	69.5%	11.0%	19.5%	-8.1	22
1892-01-09	@ Notts County	W 3-1	1826	1824	19.5%	11.0%	69.5%	+8.1	28
1892-01-09	Stoke City	W 3-0	1755	1682	75.7%	10.7%	13.6%	+2.9	21
1892-01-09	@ Accrington	L 0-3	1682	1755	13.6%	10.7%	75.7%	-2.9	15
1892-01-09	Darwen	W 9-0	1798	1780	71.3%	10.9%	17.7%	+10.6	27
1892-01-09	@ Burnley	L 0-9	1780	1798	17.7%	10.9%	71.3%	-10.6	14
1892-01-09	West Brom	W 1-0	1899	1763	79.8%	10.2%	10.0%	+0.8	46
1892-01-09	@ Preston North End	L 0-1	1763	1899	10.0%	10.2%	79.8%	-0.8	18
1892-01-09	Derby County	W 6-0	1844	1798	73.7%	10.8%	15.5%	+6.4	36
1892-01-09	@ Aston Villa	L 0-6	1798	1844	15.5%	10.8%	73.7%	-6.4	25
1892-01-23	West Brom	W 4-2	1758	1762	69.3%	11.1%	19.6%	+2.2	24
1892-01-23	@ Accrington	L 2-4	1762	1758	19.6%	11.1%	69.3%	-2.2	18
1892-02-06	Notts County	L 1-3	1679	1816	54.2%	11.3%	34.5%	-6.3	15
1892-02-06	@ Stoke City	W 3-1	1816	1679	34.5%	11.3%	54.2%	+6.3	25
1892-02-06	West Brom	D 1-1	1792	1760	72.5%	10.9%	16.6%	-1.0	26
1892-02-06	@ Derby County	D 1-1	1760	1792	16.6%	10.9%	72.5%	+1.0	19
1892-02-13	Everton	W 1-0	1809	1834	67.2%	11.1%	21.6%	+1.7	30
1892-02-13	@ Burnley	L 0-1	1834	1809	21.6%	11.1%	67.2%	-1.7	28
1892-02-20	Derby County	W 2-1	1822	1791	72.5%	10.9%	16.6%	+1.2	28
1892-02-20	@ Notts County	L 1-2	1791	1822	16.6%	10.9%	72.5%	-1.2	26
1892-02-27	Notts County	L 2-3	1770	1824	64.2%	11.2%	24.5%	-4.1	14
1892-02-27	@ Darwen	W 3-2	1824	1770	24.5%	11.2%	64.2%	+4.1	31
1892-02-27	Blackburn Rovers	W 1-0	1760	1818	63.8%	11.2%	24.9%	+1.9	27
1892-02-27	@ Accrington	L 0-1	1818	1760	24.9%	11.2%	63.8%	-1.9	26
1892-03-01	Bolton Wanderers	W 4-1	1921	1845	75.9%	10.6%	13.4%	+2.4	39
1892-03-01	@ Sunderland	L 1-4	1845	1921	13.4%	10.6%	75.9%	-2.4	41
1892-03-01	Wolverhampton	L 1-4	1766	1804	65.9%	11.2%	22.9%	-10.8	14
1892-03-01	@ Darwen	W 4-1	1804	1766	22.9%	11.2%	65.9%	+10.8	30
1892-03-01	Burnley	W 5-1	1828	1811	71.2%	10.9%	17.8%	+4.1	34
1892-03-01	@ Notts County	L 1-5	1811	1828	17.8%	10.9%	71.2%	-4.1	30
1892-03-05	Aston Villa	W 4-3	1816	1850	66.3%	11.2%	22.6%	+1.5	29
1892-03-05	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 3-4	1850	1816	22.6%	11.2%	66.3%	-1.5	36
1892-03-05	Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1807	1843	66.1%	11.2%	22.7%	-4.4	30
1892-03-05	@ Burnley	W 2-1	1843	1807	22.7%	11.2%	66.1%	+4.4	44
1892-03-05	Stoke City	W 1-0	1833	1673	81.2%	10.0%	8.8%	+0.7	31
1892-03-05	@ Everton	L 0-1	1673	1833	8.8%	10.0%	81.2%	-0.7	15
1892-03-05	Derby County	W 3-0	1900	1790	78.3%	10.4%	11.3%	+2.4	49
1892-03-05	@ Preston North End	L 0-3	1790	1900	11.3%	10.4%	78.3%	-2.4	26
1892-03-05	Sunderland	L 3-5	1762	1923	50.9%	11.3%	37.8%	-5.0	27
1892-03-05	@ Accrington	W 5-3	1923	1762	37.8%	11.3%	50.9%	+5.0	42
1892-03-12	Preston North End	W 4-1	1928	1902	72.1%	10.9%	17.0%	+3.1	45
1892-03-12	@ Sunderland	L 1-4	1902	1928	17.0%	10.9%	72.1%	-3.1	49
1892-03-12	West Brom	W 3-2	1817	1761	74.5%	10.8%	14.8%	+1.0	32
1892-03-12	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 2-3	1761	1817	14.8%	10.8%	74.5%	-1.0	19
1892-03-12	Everton	L 0-1	1672	1833	50.9%	11.3%	37.8%	-3.6	15
1892-03-12	@ Stoke City	W 1-0	1833	1672	37.8%	11.3%	50.9%	+3.7	34
1892-03-12	Accrington	W 12-2	1849	1757	77.1%	10.5%	12.4%	+5.5	39
1892-03-12	@ Aston Villa	L 2-12	1757	1849	12.4%	10.5%	77.1%	-5.5	27
1892-03-19	Sunderland	L 0-1	1787	1932	53.2%	11.3%	35.5%	-3.8	26
1892-03-19	@ Derby County	W 1-0	1932	1787	35.5%	11.3%	53.2%	+3.8	48
1892-03-19	Stoke City	W 5-3	1818	1668	80.6%	10.1%	9.3%	+1.0	35
1892-03-19	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 3-5	1668	1818	9.3%	10.1%	80.6%	-1.0	15
1892-03-19	Accrington	W 3-0	1837	1751	76.6%	10.6%	12.8%	+2.8	37
1892-03-19	@ Everton	L 0-3	1751	1837	12.8%	10.6%	76.6%	-2.8	27
1892-03-26	Wolverhampton	D 1-1	1802	1815	68.5%	11.1%	20.4%	-0.9	31
1892-03-26	@ Burnley	D 1-1	1815	1802	20.4%	11.1%	68.5%	+0.8	31
1892-03-26	Notts County	W 2-0	1847	1832	71.1%	11.0%	17.9%	+2.6	47
1892-03-26	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-2	1832	1847	17.9%	11.0%	71.1%	-2.6	34
1892-03-26	Aston Villa	W 2-1	1935	1854	76.3%	10.6%	13.1%	+1.0	51
1892-03-26	@ Sunderland	L 1-2	1854	1935	13.1%	10.6%	76.3%	-1.0	39
1892-03-26	Blackburn Rovers	D 1-1	1783	1819	66.2%	11.2%	22.7%	-0.8	27
1892-03-26	@ Derby County	D 1-1	1819	1783	22.7%	11.2%	66.2%	+0.8	36
1892-04-02	Burnley	L 2-6	1755	1801	65.0%	11.2%	23.8%	-11.7	14
1892-04-02	@ Darwen	W 6-2	1801	1755	23.8%	11.2%	65.0%	+11.7	34
1892-04-02	Preston North End	W 3-0	1816	1899	60.9%	11.3%	27.8%	+5.8	34
1892-04-02	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-3	1899	1816	27.8%	11.3%	60.9%	-5.8	49
1892-04-02	Aston Villa	L 1-2	1850	1853	69.4%	11.0%	19.6%	-4.7	47
1892-04-02	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 2-1	1853	1850	19.6%	11.0%	69.4%	+4.7	42
1892-04-02	Stoke City	W 4-1	1936	1667	86.0%	9.0%	5.0%	+0.9	54
1892-04-02	@ Sunderland	L 1-4	1667	1936	5.0%	9.0%	86.0%	-0.9	15
1892-04-02	Derby County	D 1-1	1749	1782	66.4%	11.2%	22.5%	-0.8	28
1892-04-02	@ Accrington	D 1-1	1782	1749	22.5%	11.2%	66.4%	+0.8	28
1892-04-04	Darwen	W 12-0	1760	1743	71.2%	11.0%	17.8%	+14.1	22
1892-04-04	@ West Brom	L 0-12	1743	1760	17.8%	11.0%	71.2%	-14.1	14
1892-04-09	Sunderland	W 1-0	1829	1937	57.9%	11.3%	30.8%	+2.3	37
1892-04-09	@ Notts County	L 0-1	1937	1829	30.8%	11.3%	57.9%	-2.3	54
1892-04-11	Stoke City	D 2-2	1774	1666	78.1%	10.4%	11.5%	-0.9	23
1892-04-11	@ West Brom	D 2-2	1666	1774	11.5%	10.4%	78.1%	+0.9	16
1892-04-15	Derby County	L 1-2	1840	1783	74.5%	10.8%	14.8%	-5.0	37
1892-04-15	@ Everton	W 2-1	1783	1840	14.8%	10.8%	74.5%	+5.0	31
1892-04-15	Notts County	W 1-0	1813	1831	67.9%	11.1%	21.0%	+1.6	37
1892-04-15	@ Burnley	L 0-1	1831	1813	21.0%	11.1%	67.9%	-1.6	37
1892-04-15	Accrington	W 4-1	1893	1748	80.4%	10.2%	9.5%	+1.7	52
1892-04-15	@ Preston North End	L 1-4	1748	1893	9.5%	10.2%	80.4%	-1.7	28
1892-04-16	West Brom	D 1-1	1729	1773	65.3%	11.2%	23.5%	-0.7	15
1892-04-16	@ Darwen	D 1-1	1773	1729	23.5%	11.2%	65.3%	+0.7	24
1892-04-16	Blackburn Rovers	W 6-1	1935	1820	78.6%	10.4%	11.1%	+3.2	57
1892-04-16	@ Sunderland	L 1-6	1820	1935	11.1%	10.4%	78.6%	-3.2	36
1892-04-16	Preston North End	W 3-1	1858	1895	66.1%	11.2%	22.8%	+2.9	45
1892-04-16	@ Aston Villa	L 1-3	1895	1858	22.8%	11.2%	66.1%	-2.9	52
1892-04-16	Derby County	L 2-4	1815	1788	72.1%	10.9%	17.0%	-7.5	37
1892-04-16	@ Burnley	W 4-2	1788	1815	17.0%	10.9%	72.1%	+7.5	34
1892-04-16	Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1822	1845	67.4%	11.1%	21.5%	-4.5	34
1892-04-16	@ Wolverhampton	W 2-1	1845	1822	21.5%	11.1%	67.4%	+4.5	50
1892-04-16	Notts County	W 4-0	1835	1830	70.2%	11.0%	18.8%	+5.2	40
1892-04-16	@ Everton	L 0-4	1830	1835	18.8%	11.0%	70.2%	-5.2	37
1892-04-18	Darwen	W 4-0	1892	1728	81.4%	10.0%	8.6%	+2.4	55
1892-04-18	@ Preston North End	L 0-4	1728	1892	8.6%	10.0%	81.4%	-2.4	15
1892-04-18	Wolverhampton	L 3-6	1861	1817	73.5%	10.8%	15.7%	-9.7	45
1892-04-18	@ Aston Villa	W 6-3	1817	1861	15.7%	10.8%	73.5%	+9.7	37
1892-04-18	Bolton Wanderers	L 2-5	1840	1850	68.8%	11.1%	20.2%	-9.8	40
1892-04-18	@ Everton	W 5-2	1850	1840	20.2%	11.1%	68.8%	+9.8	53
1892-04-23	Sunderland	L 1-7	1726	1938	43.8%	11.2%	45.0%	-13.8	15
1892-04-23	@ Darwen	W 7-1	1938	1726	45.0%	11.2%	43.8%	+13.8	60
1892-04-23	West Brom	W 1-0	1667	1774	58.1%	11.3%	30.6%	+2.3	19
1892-04-23	@ Stoke City	L 0-1	1774	1667	30.6%	11.3%	58.1%	-2.3	24
1892-04-30	Sunderland	L 1-2	1807	1952	53.2%	11.3%	35.5%	-3.6	37
1892-04-30	@ Burnley	W 2-1	1952	1807	35.5%	11.3%	53.2%	+3.6	63

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1892-04-15	14.75%	Derby County	1783	2	@ Everton	1840	1
2	1891-09-05	15.39%	Bolton Wanderers	1814	2	@ Darwen	1862	1
3	1892-04-18	15.67%	Wolverhampton	1817	6	@ Aston Villa	1861	3
4	1891-10-03	15.74%	Accrington	1781	4	@ Bolton Wanderers	1824	3
5	1892-01-02	16.04%	Derby County	1788	2	@ Blackburn Rovers	1827	0
6	1891-10-17	16.48%	Blackburn Rovers	1825	5	@ Darwen	1858	3
7	1891-12-28	16.65%	Everton	1823	4	@ Aston Villa	1854	3
8	1892-04-16	17.03%	Derby County	1788	4	@ Burnley	1815	2
9	1891-10-31	17.09%	Aston Villa	1818	5	@ Darwen	1843	1
10	1891-09-19	17.21%	Aston Villa	1818	1	@ Preston North End	1842	0
11	1891-09-26	18.02%	Derby County	1798	3	@ Wolverhampton	1813	1
12	1891-10-10	18.94%	Bolton Wanderers	1819	2	@ Aston Villa	1823	1
13	1891-12-19	19.34%	Burnley	1794	1	@ Derby County	1793	0
14	1892-01-09	19.47%	Everton	1826	3	@ Notts County	1824	1
15	1892-04-02	19.58%	Aston Villa	1853	2	@ Bolton Wanderers	1850	1
16	1891-10-24	19.94%	Preston North End	1839	4	@ Blackburn Rovers	1832	2
17	1892-04-18	20.16%	Bolton Wanderers	1850	5	@ Everton	1840	2
18	1891-10-24	21.41%	Everton	1831	3	@ Derby County	1808	0
19	1892-04-16	21.48%	Bolton Wanderers	1845	2	@ Wolverhampton	1822	1
20	1892-03-05	22.72%	Bolton Wanderers	1843	2	@ Burnley	1807	1
21	1892-03-01	22.94%	Wolverhampton	1804	4	@ Darwen	1766	1
22	1892-04-02	23.77%	Burnley	1801	6	@ Darwen	1755	2
23	1891-11-02	23.81%	Bolton Wanderers	1830	2	@ West Brom	1783	0
24	1892-02-27	24.54%	Notts County	1824	3	@ Darwen	1770	2
25	1891-11-07	24.65%	Bolton Wanderers	1839	3	@ Accrington	1784	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1891-12-25	16.21	Sunderland	4	1898	25.09%	@ Everton	0	1839	63.68%
2	1892-01-01	15.59	Preston North End	4	1877	27.55%	@ Darwen	0	1796	61.18%
3	1891-10-31	15.27	Aston Villa	5	1818	17.09%	@ Darwen	1	1843	71.99%
4	1892-04-04	14.13	@ West Brom	12	1760	71.21%	Darwen	0	1743	17.83%
5	1892-04-23	13.77	Sunderland	7	1938	45.01%	@ Darwen	1	1726	43.76%
6	1891-10-24	13.15	Everton	3	1831	21.41%	@ Derby County	0	1808	67.47%
7	1891-11-07	12.50	Bolton Wanderers	3	1839	24.65%	@ Accrington	0	1784	64.14%
8	1891-11-14	12.30	Aston Villa	3	1838	25.65%	@ West Brom	0	1773	63.11%
9	1892-04-02	11.70	Burnley	6	1801	23.77%	@ Darwen	2	1755	65.04%
10	1892-03-01	10.83	Wolverhampton	4	1804	22.94%	@ Darwen	1	1766	65.89%
11	1891-11-21	10.72	@ Derby County	7	1792	65.88%	Darwen	0	1831	22.95%
12	1892-01-09	10.64	@ Burnley	9	1798	71.34%	Darwen	0	1780	17.71%
13	1892-01-02	9.80	Derby County	2	1788	16.04%	@ Blackburn Rovers	0	1827	73.11%
14	1892-04-18	9.78	Bolton Wanderers	5	1850	20.16%	@ Everton	2	1840	68.77%
15	1892-04-18	9.69	Wolverhampton	6	1817	15.67%	@ Aston Villa	3	1861	73.51%
16	1891-11-28	9.23	@ Notts County	9	1823	73.92%	Accrington	0	1774	15.29%
17	1891-10-17	8.91	Sunderland	5	1865	26.19%	@ West Brom	2	1796	62.56%
18	1891-11-02	8.72	Bolton Wanderers	2	1830	23.81%	@ West Brom	0	1783	65.00%
19	1891-09-26	8.25	Derby County	3	1798	18.02%	@ Wolverhampton	1	1813	71.01%
20	1892-01-09	8.07	Everton	3	1826	19.47%	@ Notts County	1	1824	69.49%
21	1891-12-05	7.93	@ Stoke City	5	1677	52.99%	Darwen	1	1823	35.69%
22	1892-04-16	7.49	Derby County	4	1788	17.03%	@ Burnley	2	1815	72.06%
23	1891-12-26	7.46	@ Aston Villa	7	1846	73.45%	Darwen	0	1803	15.73%
24	1891-10-24	7.44	@ Notts County	5	1823	67.04%	Darwen	0	1851	21.83%
25	1891-10-24	7.17	Preston North End	4	1839	19.94%	@ Blackburn Rovers	2	1832	69.00%