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1992 Meistriliiga Season

67 games

Final

Champion

Norma Tallinn

12 points · 1st Title

Last Title: 2018

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Norma Tallinn

3.82 points above expected

12 points · 8.18 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Tulevik Viljandi

3.16 points below expected

1 points · 4.16 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Norma Tallinn Champion 6 6 0 0 12 29 3 +26 8.18 +3.82
2 Flora 6 5 1 0 11 36 4 +32 8.86 +2.14
3 TVMV 6 4 1 1 9 21 6 +15 7.66 +1.34
4 Polevkivi Johvi 6 3 3 0 9 18 8 +10 6.50 +2.50
5 DAG Tartu 6 3 2 1 8 22 14 +8 6.73 +1.27
6 Narva Trans 6 3 2 1 8 14 9 +5 7.02 +0.98
7 Vigri Tallinn 6 4 0 2 8 16 14 +2 7.30 +0.70
8 Parnu Vaprus 6 2 2 2 6 10 12 -2 5.37 +0.63
9 Tallinna Dnamo 6 2 1 3 5 7 12 -5 5.20 -0.20
10 Sillame Kalev 6 1 1 4 3 4 10 -6 4.93 -1.93
11 Keemik 6 1 1 4 3 5 13 -8 4.91 -1.91
12 Tulevik Viljandi 6 0 1 5 1 6 23 -17 4.16 -3.16
13 Merkuur 6 0 1 5 1 5 24 -19 4.13 -3.13
14 Maardu 6 0 0 6 0 3 44 -41 3.05 -3.05
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Polevkivi Johvi 4 3 1 0 7 16 7 +9 6.97 +0.03
2 Norma Tallinn 4 2 2 0 6 11 2 +9 28.68 -22.68
3 TVMV 4 2 1 1 5 17 7 +10 7.69 -2.69
4 Keemik 3 2 1 0 5 6 3 +3 — —
5 Tallinna Dnamo 3 2 0 1 4 8 4 +4 — —
6 Vigri Tallinn 4 2 0 2 4 4 8 -4 -0.62 +4.62
7 Tulevik Viljandi 3 1 1 1 3 10 6 +4 — —
8 Merkuur 3 1 1 1 3 6 4 +2 — —
9 Flora 4 1 1 2 3 6 5 +1 23.93 -20.93
10 Sillame Kalev 3 1 1 1 3 5 6 -1 — —
11 DAG Tartu 4 1 1 2 3 5 7 -2 -3.76 +6.76
12 Parnu Vaprus 4 1 0 3 2 6 12 -6 -8.31 +10.31
13 Narva Trans 4 1 0 3 2 2 19 -17 1.42 +0.58
14 Maardu 3 0 0 3 0 3 15 -12 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Norma Tallinn 12 8.18 +3.82
2 Polevkivi Johvi 9 6.50 +2.50
3 Flora 11 8.86 +2.14
4 TVMV 9 7.66 +1.34
5 DAG Tartu 8 6.73 +1.27

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Tulevik Viljandi 1 4.16 -3.16
2 Merkuur 1 4.13 -3.13
3 Maardu 0 3.05 -3.05
4 Sillame Kalev 3 4.93 -1.93
5 Keemik 3 4.91 -1.91

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Norma Tallinn 6 May 9 – Jun 6 1 in 33
2 TVMV 4 May 4 – May 26 1 in 15
3 Flora 5 May 9 – May 30 1 in 11
4 Vigri Tallinn 4 May 15 – May 26 1 in 8
5 Narva Trans 3 May 23 – May 30 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tulevik Viljandi 5 May 9 – May 30 1 in 26
2 Maardu 6 May 16 – Jun 6 1 in 20
3 Merkuur 5 May 9 – Jun 6 1 in 16
4 Tallinna Dnamo 3 May 9 – May 22 1 in 8
5 Sillame Kalev 2 May 2 – May 9 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Polevkivi Johvi 6 May 2 – Jun 6 1 in 18
2 Norma Tallinn 6 May 9 – Jun 6 1 in 5
3 DAG Tartu 4 May 2 – May 26 1 in 4
4 TVMV 5 May 4 – May 30 1 in 4
5 Parnu Vaprus 3 May 2 – May 16 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tulevik Viljandi 6 May 2 – May 30 1 in 7
2 Merkuur 6 May 2 – Jun 6 1 in 6
3 Keemik 5 May 10 – May 30 1 in 5
4 TVMV 2 May 30 – Jun 6 1 in 4
5 Narva Trans 3 May 2 – May 15 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Norma Tallinn 1597 18 +77 8 7.6 +0.4
Polevkivi Johvi 1451 16 +187 8 5.2 +2.8
TVMV 1454 14 +98 5 5.0 -0.0
Flora 1361 14 -174 4 6.8 -2.8
Vigri Tallinn 1152 12 -116 4 3.4 +0.6
DAG Tartu 1182 11 -23 5 5.4 -0.4
Narva Trans 987 10 -101 4 4.0 -0.0
Tallinna Dnamo 1081 9 +234 8 6.5 +1.5
Keemik 1018 8 +79 7 5.2 +1.8
Parnu Vaprus 1028 8 +22 3 2.5 +0.5
Sillame Kalev 872 6 -61 4 4.9 -0.9
Merkuur 869 4 -21 3 3.9 -0.9
Tulevik Viljandi 759 4 -124 3 3.9 -0.9
Maardu 462 0 -226 0 2.1 -2.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DT FLO KEE MAA MER NT NT PV PJ SK TVM TD TV VT
DAG Tartu —
0-0-1
0.47
1-0-0
1.67
1-0-0
2.35
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.14
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.68
1-0-0
2.34
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Flora
1-0-0
2.33
 —
1-0-0
2.56
1-0-0
2.22
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.41
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
2.12
1-0-0
1.99
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Keemik
0-0-1
1.13
0-0-1
0.25
 —
1-0-0
2.26
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.68
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.96
0-1-0
1.70
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Maardu
0-0-1
0.45
0-0-1
0.58
0-0-1
0.53
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.35
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.30
0-0-1
1.80
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Merkuur
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.57
0-0-1
1.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.29
0-0-1
0.61
0-1-0
1.65
0-0-1
0.84
Narva Trans
0-1-0
1.65
0-0-1
1.38
1-0-0
2.12
1-0-0
2.45
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
0.80
1-0-0
1.32
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Norma Tallinn
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.23
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-0
1.86
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.80
1-0-0
1.12
1-0-0
2.55
1-0-0
2.12
Parnu Vaprus
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.14
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.93
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
0.51
0-1-0
1.65
1-0-0
2.25
0-0-1
1.06
Polevkivi Johvi
0-1-0
1.12
0-1-0
0.68
1-0-0
1.83
1-0-0
2.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.99
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-0
1.14
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sillame Kalev
0-0-1
0.45
0-0-1
0.81
0-1-0
1.09
1-0-0
0.99
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.48
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.65
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
TVMV
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.51
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.00
0-1-0
2.29
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-0
2.38
1-0-0
1.32
1-0-0
1.14
Tallinna Dnamo
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.19
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.67
0-1-0
1.14
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.42
 —
1-0-0
1.05
0-0-1
0.83
Tulevik Viljandi
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.14
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.26
0-0-1
0.55
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.47
0-0-1
1.75
 —
0-0-1
0.53
Vigri Tallinn
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.96
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.68
1-0-0
1.74
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.65
1-0-0
1.96
1-0-0
2.26
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.83 +3.5
Allowed 0.64 -2.9
Differential 0.89 +2.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.49%2.99%1.49%6.72%3.73%4.48%20.90%
12.99%10.45%5.22%5.22%2.24%2.99%29.10%
21.49%5.22%4.48%0.75%0.75%1.49%14.18%
36.72%5.22%0.75%1.49%1.49%0.75%16.42%
43.73%2.24%0.75%1.49%1.49%—9.70%
5+4.48%2.99%1.49%0.75%——9.70%
Total20.90%29.10%14.18%16.42%9.70%9.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.25 2.25 +0.00
SD 2.55 2.55 4.13
CV 1.14 1.14 —
Max 19 19 +19
Min 0 0 -19

Games Played: 67

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%—10.00%——20.00%
1—10.00%————10.00%
2—10.00%20.00%——10.00%40.00%
3———————
4—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
5+—10.00%————10.00%
Total—50.00%30.00%10.00%—10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.70 2.10 +0.60
SD 2.91 1.85 3.75
CV 1.08 0.88 —
Max 10 7 +9
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%—————10.00%
1—10.00%10.00%10.00%——30.00%
2———————
320.00%10.00%————30.00%
410.00%—————10.00%
5+10.00%—10.00%———20.00%
Total50.00%20.00%20.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.20 0.90 +3.30
SD 5.57 1.10 5.96
CV 1.33 1.22 —
Max 19 3 +19
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%22.22%——33.33%
1—22.22%——11.11%—33.33%
2—11.11%————11.11%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%11.11%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.78 -0.56
SD 1.20 1.30 2.30
CV 0.98 0.73 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———33.33%—11.11%44.44%
1——11.11%—11.11%22.22%44.44%
2—————11.11%11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total——11.11%33.33%11.11%44.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 6.56 -5.89
SD 0.71 5.41 5.46
CV 1.06 0.83 —
Max 2 19 -1
Min 0 2 -19

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%———22.22%33.33%
1—22.22%11.11%———33.33%
2———11.11%——11.11%
311.11%———11.11%—22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%11.11%11.11%11.11%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 3.11 -1.89
SD 1.20 3.06 3.72
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 3 9 +3
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————20.00%20.00%
120.00%——20.00%——40.00%
2——10.00%———10.00%
320.00%—————20.00%
4————10.00%—10.00%
5+———————
Total40.00%—10.00%20.00%10.00%20.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.60 2.80 -1.20
SD 1.35 3.26 4.08
CV 0.84 1.16 —
Max 4 10 +3
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%—————10.00%
1———————
2—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
320.00%10.00%————30.00%
4———————
5+30.00%10.00%————40.00%
Total60.00%30.00%10.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.00 0.50 +3.50
SD 2.67 0.71 2.95
CV 0.67 1.41 —
Max 9 2 +9
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————20.00%—20.00%
110.00%10.00%—20.00%——40.00%
2————10.00%—10.00%
3—10.00%—10.00%——20.00%
4—10.00%————10.00%
5+———————
Total10.00%30.00%—30.00%30.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.60 2.40 -0.80
SD 1.35 1.51 2.39
CV 0.84 0.63 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—10.00%————10.00%
220.00%—20.00%———40.00%
3—10.00%————10.00%
4————10.00%—10.00%
5+—20.00%—10.00%——30.00%
Total20.00%40.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.40 1.50 +1.90
SD 2.01 1.27 2.13
CV 0.59 0.85 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
1—22.22%11.11%11.11%——44.44%
2—11.11%————11.11%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total—44.44%33.33%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.78 -0.78
SD 1.00 0.83 1.39
CV 1.00 0.47 —
Max 3 3 +1
Min 0 1 -3

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
2—10.00%————10.00%
3—10.00%—10.00%—10.00%30.00%
420.00%—————20.00%
5+20.00%—————20.00%
Total40.00%30.00%10.00%10.00%—10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.80 1.30 +2.50
SD 2.78 1.64 3.78
CV 0.73 1.26 —
Max 10 5 +10
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———22.22%11.11%—33.33%
1—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
2—11.11%————11.11%
3—11.11%————11.11%
411.11%11.11%————22.22%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%11.11%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.78 -0.11
SD 1.66 1.30 2.85
CV 0.99 0.73 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————22.22%—22.22%
1—22.22%—11.11%11.11%11.11%55.56%
2———————
3————11.11%—11.11%
4———————
5+——11.11%———11.11%
Total—22.22%11.11%11.11%44.44%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 3.22 -1.44
SD 2.49 1.64 3.32
CV 1.40 0.51 —
Max 8 6 +6
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%———10.00%20.00%
110.00%—10.00%——10.00%30.00%
2—10.00%————10.00%
310.00%—————10.00%
410.00%——20.00%——30.00%
5+———————
Total30.00%20.00%10.00%20.00%—20.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.20 -0.20
SD 1.63 2.30 3.19
CV 0.82 1.05 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 10

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Norma Tallinn 1597 12 8.18 +3.82 100.0% 3 5 7 8 9 11 12
TVMV 1454 9 7.66 +1.34 87.0% 4 5 6 8 9 10 11
Polevkivi Johvi 1451 9 6.50 +2.50 92.0% 0 3 5 6 8 10 12
Flora 1361 11 8.86 +2.14 96.0% 4 5 8 9 10 11 12
DAG Tartu 1182 8 6.73 +1.27 86.0% 2 4 5 7 8 9 11
Vigri Tallinn 1152 8 7.30 +0.70 71.0% 3 4 6 7 9 10 12
Tallinna Dnamo 1081 5 5.20 -0.20 54.0% 0 2 4 5 7 8 10
Parnu Vaprus 1028 6 5.37 +0.63 72.0% 0 2 4 6 7 8 12
Keemik 1018 3 4.91 -1.91 17.0% 0 2 4 5 6 8 9
Narva Trans 987 8 7.02 +0.98 75.0% 2 3 6 7 8 10 11
Sillame Kalev 872 3 4.93 -1.93 25.0% 0 1 3 5 6 8 11
Merkuur 869 1 4.13 -3.13 4.0% 1 2 3 4 5 7 9
Tulevik Viljandi 759 1 4.16 -3.16 6.0% 0 1 3 4 5 7 9
Maardu 462 0 3.05 -3.05 5.0% 0 0 2 3 4 6 8

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 1% * Slight Edge: 1% to 4.5% * Clear Edge: 4.5% to 7.5% * Strong Edge: 7.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.94%
Strong Edge
46.27%19.40%34.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
98 Elo
0.010 goals per Elo point
041.68250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.85 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.43+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.38 * Runaway: 0.38 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.6
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
44%
Norma Tallinn, 2nd of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 1.52 * Some Luck: 1.52 to 2.28 * Lucky: 2.28 to 3.05 * Wild Swing: 3.05 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.04 * Close: 2.04 to 3.07 * Off: 3.07 to 4.09 * Way Off: 4.09 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.19 points
Some Luck
01.905
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.71
Pinpoint
02.566
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
100.00%
Norma Tallinn
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
4.00%
Merkuur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.27 * Even: 0.27 to 0.29 * Top-Heavy: 0.29 to 0.31 * Lopsided: 0.31 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.7 * Moderate Separation: 2.7 to 3 * Strong Separation: 3 to 3.3 * Wide Separation: 3.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 87.5% * Slight Edge: 87.5% to 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 93.5% * Wide Edge: 93.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 98% * Clear Edge: 98% to 99% * Strong Edge: 99% to 99.5% * Dominant: 99.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 43% * Some Drama: 43% to 46% * Frequent: 46% to 50.5% * Very Frequent: 50.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 28.5% * Occasional: 28.5% to 34% * Frequent: 34% to 39.5% * Very Frequent: 39.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.35
Lopsided
00.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 279.92
1.77
Coin-Flip Parity
12.733.33.75
Interquartile Edge
87%
Even
50%87.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
40%
Few
0%28%100%
Blowouts
Expected
43%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.54 * Slight Separation: 0.54 to 0.58 * Notable Separation: 0.58 to 0.63 * Lopsided: 0.63 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.7 * Some Carryover: 0.7 to 0.84 * Strong Carryover: 0.84 to 0.9 * Near-Lock: 0.9 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15% * Upset-Prone: 15% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 9% * As Expected: 9% to 11% * Shaky Favorites: 11% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.46
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
N/A
No prior ratings
00.70.841
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Very Shaky
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.19 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.19 to 0.29 * Above Noise: 0.29 to 0.38 * Well Above Noise: 0.38 and up.
Probability calibration
0.58
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.11
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.148
Well Within Noise
00.1900.5

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567
Norma Tallinn44.00%28.00%17.00%4.00%5.00%2.00%—
Flora61.00%17.00%12.00%6.00%2.00%2.00%—
TVMV28.00%26.00%24.00%16.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%
Polevkivi Johvi11.00%22.00%23.00%19.00%13.00%7.00%5.00%
DAG Tartu9.00%30.00%20.00%15.00%18.00%6.00%2.00%
Narva Trans12.00%24.00%22.00%22.00%6.00%12.00%2.00%
Vigri Tallinn18.00%28.00%23.00%12.00%13.00%5.00%1.00%
Parnu Vaprus5.00%6.00%15.00%28.00%20.00%13.00%13.00%
Tallinna Dnamo3.00%6.00%13.00%26.00%23.00%14.00%15.00%
Sillame Kalev5.00%4.00%14.00%13.00%26.00%21.00%17.00%
Keemik2.00%2.00%9.00%21.00%25.00%29.00%12.00%
Tulevik Viljandi1.00%4.00%5.00%8.00%17.00%32.00%33.00%
Merkuur1.00%2.00%3.00%6.00%19.00%32.00%37.00%
Maardu—1.00%—4.00%10.00%23.00%62.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
DAG Tartu 100%
Flora 100%
Keemik 100%
Maardu 100%
Merkuur 100%
Narva Trans 100%
Norma Tallinn 100%
Parnu Vaprus 100%
Polevkivi Johvi 100%
Sillame Kalev 100%
TVMV 100%
Tallinna Dnamo 100%
Tulevik Viljandi 100%
Vigri Tallinn 100%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level
DAG Tartu 100%
Flora 100%
Keemik 100%
Maardu 100%
Merkuur 100%
Narva Trans 100%
Norma Tallinn 100%
Parnu Vaprus 100%
Polevkivi Johvi 100%
Sillame Kalev 100%
TVMV 100%
Tallinna Dnamo 100%
Tulevik Viljandi 100%
Vigri Tallinn 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1992-05-02 DAG Tartu D 2-254.1 1091 1091 48.29% 20.58% 31.14%+0.43 -3.0 1
1992-05-02 @ Narva Trans D 2-254.1 1091 1091 31.14% 20.58% 48.29%-0.43 +3.0 1
1992-05-02 Tallinna Dnamo D 1-151.2 1091 1091 48.29% 20.58% 31.14%+0.43 -4.0 1
1992-05-02 @ Parnu Vaprus D 1-151.2 1091 1091 31.14% 20.58% 48.29%-0.43 +4.0 1
1992-05-02 Polevkivi Johvi L 0-244.0 1091 1091 48.29% 20.58% 31.14%+0.43 -97.3 0
1992-05-02 @ Sillame Kalev W 2-044.0 1091 1091 31.14% 20.58% 48.29%-0.43 +97.3 2
1992-05-02 Tulevik Viljandi D 1-151.2 1091 1091 48.29% 20.58% 31.14%+0.43 -4.0 1
1992-05-02 @ Merkuur D 1-151.2 1091 1091 31.14% 20.58% 48.29%-0.43 +4.0 1
1992-05-04 TVMV L 1-247.5 1091 1091 48.29% 20.58% 31.14%+0.43 -48.6 0
1992-05-04 @ Vigri Tallinn W 2-147.5 1091 1091 31.14% 20.58% 48.29%-0.43 +48.6 2
1992-05-09 Sillame Kalev W 3-034.7 1091 994 59.35% 20.50% 20.14%+1.42 +68.4 2
1992-05-09 @ Flora L 0-334.7 994 1091 20.14% 20.50% 59.35%-1.42 -68.4 0
1992-05-09 Narva Trans D 4-459.9 1188 1088 59.64% 20.50% 19.85%+1.45 -5.4 3
1992-05-09 @ Polevkivi Johvi D 4-459.9 1088 1188 19.85% 20.50% 59.64%-1.45 +5.4 2
1992-05-09 Norma Tallinn L 0-343.3 1095 1091 48.80% 20.58% 30.62%+0.47 -142.6 1
1992-05-09 @ Tallinna Dnamo W 3-043.3 1091 1095 30.62% 20.58% 48.80%-0.47 +142.6 2
1992-05-09 Parnu Vaprus L 0-144.8 1087 1087 48.29% 20.58% 31.14%+0.43 -51.6 1
1992-05-09 @ Merkuur W 1-044.8 1087 1087 31.14% 20.58% 48.29%-0.43 +51.6 3
1992-05-09 TVMV L 0-440.7 1095 1140 42.25% 20.59% 37.16%-0.03 -164.8 1
1992-05-09 @ Tulevik Viljandi W 4-040.7 1140 1095 37.16% 20.59% 42.25%+0.03 +164.8 4
1992-05-10 Keemik W 4-141.0 1094 1091 48.67% 20.58% 30.75%+0.46 +82.3 3
1992-05-10 @ DAG Tartu L 1-441.0 1091 1094 30.75% 20.58% 48.67%-0.46 -82.3 0
1992-05-15 Polevkivi Johvi L 0-237.0 1009 1183 25.19% 20.51% 54.30%-1.35 -56.9 0
1992-05-15 @ Keemik W 2-037.0 1183 1009 54.30% 20.51% 25.19%+1.35 +56.9 5
1992-05-15 Flora L 1-344.2 1093 1159 39.21% 20.58% 40.21%-0.25 -70.8 2
1992-05-15 @ Narva Trans W 3-144.2 1159 1093 40.21% 20.58% 39.21%+0.25 +70.8 4
1992-05-15 Merkuur W 9-030.1 1234 1035 67.49% 20.35% 12.16%+2.45 +123.0 4
1992-05-15 @ Norma Tallinn L 0-930.1 1035 1234 12.16% 20.35% 67.49%-2.45 -123.0 1
1992-05-15 Tallinna Dnamo W 3-034.9 1042 952 58.63% 20.51% 20.85%+1.35 +70.4 2
1992-05-15 @ Vigri Tallinn L 0-334.9 952 1042 20.85% 20.51% 58.63%-1.35 -70.4 1
1992-05-16 Tulevik Viljandi W 4-135.1 1139 930 68.13% 20.32% 11.54%+2.55 +35.2 5
1992-05-16 @ Parnu Vaprus L 1-435.1 930 1139 11.54% 20.32% 68.13%-2.55 -35.2 1
1992-05-16 Maardu W 2-148.9 925 1091 26.17% 20.52% 53.31%-1.27 +53.2 2
1992-05-16 @ Sillame Kalev L 1-248.9 1091 925 53.31% 20.52% 26.17%+1.27 -53.2 0
1992-05-19 Maardu W 19-030.0 1230 1038 67.11% 20.36% 12.54%+2.39 +260.9 6
1992-05-19 @ Flora L 0-1930.0 1038 1230 12.54% 20.36% 67.11%-2.39 -260.9 0
1992-05-19 Tulevik Viljandi W 4-342.2 1113 895 68.70% 20.30% 10.99%+2.65 +12.7 4
1992-05-19 @ Vigri Tallinn L 3-442.2 895 1113 10.99% 20.30% 68.70%-2.65 -12.7 1
1992-05-22 TVMV L 0-430.0 882 1304 7.21% 19.99% 72.80%-3.89 -35.0 1
1992-05-22 @ Tallinna Dnamo W 4-030.0 1304 882 72.80% 19.99% 7.21%+3.89 +35.1 6
1992-05-23 Keemik W 3-029.1 1491 952 78.87% 19.23% 1.90%+5.94 +7.3 8
1992-05-23 @ Flora L 0-329.1 952 1491 1.90% 19.23% 78.87%-5.94 -7.3 0
1992-05-23 DAG Tartu L 1-1030.4 777 1176 8.16% 20.06% 71.78%-3.66 -69.7 0
1992-05-23 @ Maardu W 10-130.4 1176 777 71.78% 20.06% 8.16%+3.66 +69.7 5
1992-05-23 Norma Tallinn L 1-340.1 1174 1357 24.22% 20.50% 55.28%-1.44 -47.7 5
1992-05-23 @ Parnu Vaprus W 3-140.1 1357 1174 55.28% 20.50% 24.22%+1.44 +47.7 6
1992-05-23 Narva Trans L 0-143.0 978 1023 42.34% 20.59% 37.07%-0.02 -46.1 2
1992-05-23 @ Sillame Kalev W 1-043.0 1023 978 37.07% 20.59% 42.34%+0.02 +46.1 4
1992-05-23 Vigri Tallinn L 3-445.2 912 1125 21.06% 20.46% 58.48%-1.75 -22.6 1
1992-05-23 @ Merkuur W 4-345.2 1125 912 58.48% 20.46% 21.06%+1.75 +22.6 6
1992-05-26 Polevkivi Johvi D 2-254.4 1246 1240 49.07% 20.58% 30.35%+0.49 -3.3 6
1992-05-26 @ DAG Tartu D 2-254.4 1240 1246 30.35% 20.58% 49.07%-0.49 +3.3 6
1992-05-26 Sillame Kalev D 1-151.1 944 932 49.83% 20.57% 29.60%+0.55 -4.8 1
1992-05-26 @ Keemik D 1-151.1 932 944 29.60% 20.57% 49.83%-0.55 +4.8 3
1992-05-26 Merkuur W 7-027.4 1339 890 77.27% 19.60% 3.12%+5.02 +26.4 8
1992-05-26 @ TVMV L 0-727.4 890 1339 3.12% 19.60% 77.27%-5.02 -26.4 1
1992-05-26 Tulevik Viljandi W 6-130.7 1404 882 78.60% 19.31% 2.10%+5.76 +10.7 8
1992-05-26 @ Norma Tallinn L 1-630.7 882 1404 2.10% 19.31% 78.60%-5.76 -10.7 1
1992-05-26 Parnu Vaprus W 4-036.5 1148 1126 51.07% 20.57% 28.36%+0.65 +119.3 8
1992-05-26 @ Vigri Tallinn L 0-436.5 1126 1148 28.36% 20.57% 51.07%-0.65 -119.3 5
1992-05-27 Maardu W 3-030.0 1069 707 75.01% 19.92% 5.08%+4.12 +19.2 6
1992-05-27 @ Narva Trans L 0-330.0 707 1069 5.08% 19.92% 75.01%-4.12 -19.2 0
1992-05-30 DAG Tartu W 7-237.8 1498 1243 70.79% 20.22% 8.99%+3.04 +36.9 10
1992-05-30 @ Flora L 2-737.8 1243 1498 8.99% 20.22% 70.79%-3.04 -36.9 6
1992-05-30 Polevkivi Johvi L 1-730.4 688 1243 3.50% 19.52% 76.98%-5.25 -21.0 0
1992-05-30 @ Maardu W 7-130.4 1243 688 76.98% 19.52% 3.50%+5.25 +21.0 8
1992-05-30 Keemik W 3-033.3 1088 940 63.87% 20.43% 15.70%+1.94 +55.0 8
1992-05-30 @ Narva Trans L 0-333.3 940 1088 15.70% 20.43% 63.87%-1.94 -55.0 1
1992-05-30 Vigri Tallinn W 6-033.4 1415 1267 63.82% 20.44% 15.74%+1.93 +105.4 10
1992-05-30 @ Norma Tallinn L 0-633.4 1267 1415 15.74% 20.44% 63.82%-1.93 -105.4 8
1992-05-30 TVMV D 3-357.4 1007 1366 10.11% 20.17% 69.72%-3.24 +9.7 6
1992-05-30 @ Parnu Vaprus D 3-357.4 1366 1007 69.72% 20.17% 10.11%+3.24 -9.7 9
1992-05-30 Tallinna Dnamo L 0-443.4 872 847 51.40% 20.57% 28.03%+0.68 -195.3 1
1992-05-30 @ Tulevik Viljandi W 4-043.4 847 872 28.03% 20.57% 51.40%-0.68 +195.3 3
1992-06-06 Sillame Kalev W 2-135.4 1206 937 71.42% 20.19% 8.40%+3.17 +10.7 8
1992-06-06 @ DAG Tartu L 1-235.4 937 1206 8.40% 20.19% 71.42%-3.17 -10.7 3
1992-06-06 Maardu W 3-031.9 885 667 68.71% 20.30% 10.99%+2.65 +39.9 3
1992-06-06 @ Keemik L 0-331.9 667 885 10.99% 20.30% 68.71%-2.65 -39.9 0
1992-06-06 Norma Tallinn L 1-246.5 1356 1520 26.33% 20.52% 53.14%-1.25 -29.5 9
1992-06-06 @ TVMV W 2-146.5 1520 1356 53.14% 20.52% 26.33%+1.25 +29.5 12
1992-06-06 Flora D 1-154.8 1264 1535 15.89% 20.37% 63.75%-2.35 +12.2 9
1992-06-06 @ Polevkivi Johvi D 1-154.8 1535 1264 63.75% 20.37% 15.89%+2.35 -12.2 11
1992-06-06 Merkuur W 2-136.9 1042 863 66.18% 20.38% 13.44%+2.25 +16.5 5
1992-06-06 @ Tallinna Dnamo L 1-236.9 863 1042 13.44% 20.38% 66.18%-2.25 -16.5 1

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1992-06-13 TVMV D 1-151.8 1216 1327 33.09% 20.57% 46.35%-0.70 +3.1 1
1992-06-13 @ DAG Tartu D 1-151.8 1327 1216 46.35% 20.57% 33.09%+0.70 -3.1 1
1992-06-13 Parnu Vaprus W 4-028.9 1523 1016 78.35% 19.37% 2.28%+5.60 +11.4 2
1992-06-13 @ Flora L 0-428.9 1016 1523 2.28% 19.37% 78.35%-5.60 -11.4 0
1992-06-13 Norma Tallinn L 0-631.0 1143 1550 7.84% 20.03% 72.13%-3.73 -55.5 0
1992-06-13 @ Narva Trans W 6-031.0 1550 1143 72.13% 20.03% 7.84%+3.73 +55.5 2
1992-06-13 Vigri Tallinn W 6-136.2 1276 1162 60.96% 20.48% 18.56%+1.59 +84.9 2
1992-06-13 @ Polevkivi Johvi L 1-636.2 1162 1276 18.56% 20.48% 60.96%-1.59 -84.9 0
1992-06-13 Keemik D 1-151.1 847 925 37.53% 20.58% 41.89%-0.37 +1.0 1
1992-06-13 @ Merkuur D 1-151.1 925 847 41.89% 20.58% 37.53%+0.37 -1.0 1
1992-06-13 Maardu W 8-239.3 676 627 54.28% 20.55% 25.17%+0.93 +108.0 2
1992-06-13 @ Tulevik Viljandi L 2-839.3 627 676 25.17% 20.55% 54.28%-0.93 -108.0 0
1992-06-16 Tulevik Viljandi W 3-137.2 924 784 63.13% 20.45% 16.42%+1.85 +34.1 3
1992-06-16 @ Keemik L 1-337.2 784 924 16.42% 20.45% 63.13%-1.85 -34.1 2
1992-06-16 Tallinna Dnamo L 1-432.5 519 1059 3.82% 19.58% 76.61%-5.09 -12.2 0
1992-06-16 @ Maardu W 4-132.5 1059 519 76.61% 19.58% 3.82%+5.09 +12.2 2
1992-06-16 Polevkivi Johvi L 3-552.8 1324 1361 43.23% 20.59% 36.18%+0.04 -64.8 1
1992-06-16 @ TVMV W 5-352.8 1361 1324 36.18% 20.59% 43.23%-0.04 +64.8 4
1992-06-16 DAG Tartu W 3-034.0 1605 1219 75.73% 19.84% 4.44%+4.37 +16.9 4
1992-06-16 @ Norma Tallinn L 0-334.0 1219 1605 4.44% 19.84% 75.73%-4.37 -16.9 1
1992-06-16 Narva Trans W 3-145.1 1005 1087 36.90% 20.58% 42.52%-0.42 +75.6 2
1992-06-16 @ Parnu Vaprus L 1-345.1 1087 1005 42.52% 20.58% 36.90%+0.42 -75.6 0
1992-06-16 Merkuur W 3-242.6 926 848 57.49% 20.52% 21.99%+1.23 +24.1 2
1992-06-16 @ Sillame Kalev L 2-342.6 848 926 21.99% 20.52% 57.49%-1.23 -24.1 1
1992-06-16 Flora W 2-156.0 1077 1534 5.97% 19.88% 74.15%-4.25 +74.9 2
1992-06-16 @ Vigri Tallinn L 1-256.0 1534 1077 74.15% 19.88% 5.97%+4.25 -74.9 2
1992-06-20 Parnu Vaprus W 4-240.8 1203 1081 61.65% 20.47% 17.88%+1.67 +32.9 3
1992-06-20 @ DAG Tartu L 2-440.8 1081 1203 17.88% 20.47% 61.65%-1.67 -32.9 2
1992-06-20 TVMV L 1-354.7 1460 1259 67.66% 20.34% 12.00%+2.48 -117.3 2
1992-06-20 @ Flora W 3-154.7 1259 1460 12.00% 20.34% 67.66%-2.48 +117.3 3
1992-06-20 Vigri Tallinn W 1-045.4 1012 1152 29.23% 20.54% 50.22%-1.01 +53.4 2
1992-06-20 @ Narva Trans L 0-145.4 1152 1012 50.22% 20.54% 29.23%+1.01 -53.4 2
1992-06-20 Norma Tallinn D 2-265.8 1426 1622 22.78% 20.48% 56.74%-1.58 +6.2 5
1992-06-20 @ Polevkivi Johvi D 2-265.8 1622 1426 56.74% 20.48% 22.78%+1.58 -6.2 5
1992-06-20 Keemik L 1-251.2 1071 958 60.85% 20.48% 18.66%+1.58 -60.5 2
1992-06-20 @ Tallinna Dnamo W 2-151.2 958 1071 18.66% 20.48% 60.85%-1.58 +60.6 5
1992-06-20 Sillame Kalev D 1-151.2 750 951 22.37% 20.48% 57.15%-1.62 +8.5 3
1992-06-20 @ Tulevik Viljandi D 1-151.2 951 750 57.15% 20.48% 22.37%+1.62 -8.5 3
1992-06-27 Merkuur L 0-332.3 507 824 12.61% 20.27% 67.12%-2.81 -45.1 0
1992-06-27 @ Maardu W 3-032.3 824 507 67.12% 20.27% 12.61%+2.81 +45.1 3
1992-06-27 Narva Trans W 10-028.5 1376 1065 73.24% 20.07% 6.69%+3.60 +78.0 5
1992-06-27 @ TVMV L 0-1028.5 1065 1376 6.69% 20.07% 73.24%-3.60 -78.0 2
1992-06-27 Flora D 0-057.4 1616 1342 71.66% 20.17% 8.16%+3.22 -18.9 6
1992-06-27 @ Norma Tallinn D 0-057.4 1342 1616 8.16% 20.17% 71.66%-3.22 +18.9 3
1992-06-27 Polevkivi Johvi L 1-335.2 1048 1432 8.85% 20.10% 71.05%-3.50 -19.4 2
1992-06-27 @ Parnu Vaprus W 3-135.2 1432 1048 71.05% 20.10% 8.85%+3.50 +19.4 7
1992-06-27 Tallinna Dnamo L 1-344.0 942 1010 38.89% 20.58% 40.53%-0.27 -70.3 3
1992-06-27 @ Sillame Kalev W 3-144.0 1010 942 40.53% 20.58% 38.89%+0.27 +70.3 4
1992-06-27 DAG Tartu W 1-045.4 1098 1235 29.63% 20.55% 49.82%-0.97 +53.0 4
1992-06-27 @ Vigri Tallinn L 0-145.4 1235 1098 49.82% 20.55% 29.63%+0.97 -53.0 3

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1992-06-16 5.97% @ Vigri Tallinn 1077 2 Flora 1534 1
2 1992-06-20 12.00% TVMV 1259 3 @ Flora 1460 1
3 1992-06-20 18.66% Keemik 958 2 @ Tallinna Dnamo 1071 1
4 1992-05-16 26.17% @ Sillame Kalev 925 2 Maardu 1091 1
5 1992-05-30 28.03% Tallinna Dnamo 847 4 @ Tulevik Viljandi 872 0
6 1992-06-20 29.23% @ Narva Trans 1012 1 Vigri Tallinn 1152 0
7 1992-06-27 29.63% @ Vigri Tallinn 1098 1 DAG Tartu 1235 0
8 1992-05-09 30.62% Norma Tallinn 1091 3 @ Tallinna Dnamo 1095 0
9 1992-05-02 31.14% Polevkivi Johvi 1091 2 @ Sillame Kalev 1091 0
10 1992-05-04 31.14% TVMV 1091 2 @ Vigri Tallinn 1091 1
11 1992-05-09 31.14% Parnu Vaprus 1087 1 @ Merkuur 1087 0
12 1992-06-16 36.18% Polevkivi Johvi 1361 5 @ TVMV 1324 3
13 1992-06-16 36.90% @ Parnu Vaprus 1005 3 Narva Trans 1087 1
14 1992-05-23 37.07% Narva Trans 1023 1 @ Sillame Kalev 978 0
15 1992-05-09 37.16% TVMV 1140 4 @ Tulevik Viljandi 1095 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-05-19 260.90 @ Flora 19 1230 67.11% Maardu 0 1038 12.54% 20.36%
2 1992-05-30 195.27 Tallinna Dnamo 4 847 28.03% @ Tulevik Viljandi 0 872 51.40% 20.57%
3 1992-05-09 164.76 TVMV 4 1140 37.16% @ Tulevik Viljandi 0 1095 42.25% 20.59%
4 1992-05-09 142.64 Norma Tallinn 3 1091 30.62% @ Tallinna Dnamo 0 1095 48.80% 20.58%
5 1992-05-15 123.04 @ Norma Tallinn 9 1234 67.49% Merkuur 0 1035 12.16% 20.35%
6 1992-05-26 119.28 @ Vigri Tallinn 4 1148 51.07% Parnu Vaprus 0 1126 28.36% 20.57%
7 1992-06-20 117.29 TVMV 3 1259 12.00% @ Flora 1 1460 67.66% 20.34%
8 1992-06-13 107.96 @ Tulevik Viljandi 8 676 54.28% Maardu 2 627 25.17% 20.55%
9 1992-05-30 105.39 @ Norma Tallinn 6 1415 63.82% Vigri Tallinn 0 1267 15.74% 20.44%
10 1992-05-02 97.29 Polevkivi Johvi 2 1091 31.14% @ Sillame Kalev 0 1091 48.29% 20.58%
11 1992-06-13 84.92 @ Polevkivi Johvi 6 1276 60.96% Vigri Tallinn 1 1162 18.56% 20.48%
12 1992-05-10 82.29 @ DAG Tartu 4 1094 48.67% Keemik 1 1091 30.75% 20.58%
13 1992-06-27 77.98 @ TVMV 10 1376 73.24% Narva Trans 0 1065 6.69% 20.07%
14 1992-06-16 75.59 @ Parnu Vaprus 3 1005 36.90% Narva Trans 1 1087 42.52% 20.58%
15 1992-06-16 74.88 @ Vigri Tallinn 2 1077 5.97% Flora 1 1534 74.15% 19.88%
16 1992-05-15 70.80 Flora 3 1159 40.21% @ Narva Trans 1 1093 39.21% 20.58%
17 1992-05-15 70.44 @ Vigri Tallinn 3 1042 58.63% Tallinna Dnamo 0 952 20.85% 20.51%
18 1992-06-27 70.34 Tallinna Dnamo 3 1010 40.53% @ Sillame Kalev 1 942 38.89% 20.58%
19 1992-05-23 69.66 DAG Tartu 10 1176 71.78% @ Maardu 1 777 8.16% 20.06%
20 1992-05-09 68.36 @ Flora 3 1091 59.35% Sillame Kalev 0 994 20.14% 20.50%
21 1992-06-16 64.77 Polevkivi Johvi 5 1361 36.18% @ TVMV 3 1324 43.23% 20.59%
22 1992-06-20 60.55 Keemik 2 958 18.66% @ Tallinna Dnamo 1 1071 60.85% 20.48%
23 1992-05-15 56.92 Polevkivi Johvi 2 1183 54.30% @ Keemik 0 1009 25.19% 20.51%
24 1992-06-13 55.49 Norma Tallinn 6 1550 72.13% @ Narva Trans 0 1143 7.84% 20.03%
25 1992-05-30 54.98 @ Narva Trans 3 1088 63.87% Keemik 0 940 15.70% 20.43%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-06-20 65.8 @ Polevkivi Johvi 2 1426 22.78% Norma Tallinn 2 1622 56.74% 20.48%
2 1992-05-09 59.9 @ Polevkivi Johvi 4 1188 59.64% Narva Trans 4 1088 19.85% 20.50%
3 1992-05-30 57.4 @ Parnu Vaprus 3 1007 10.11% TVMV 3 1366 69.72% 20.17%
4 1992-06-27 57.4 @ Norma Tallinn 0 1616 71.66% Flora 0 1342 8.16% 20.17%
5 1992-06-16 56.0 @ Vigri Tallinn 2 1077 5.97% Flora 1 1534 74.15% 19.88%
6 1992-06-06 54.8 @ Polevkivi Johvi 1 1264 15.89% Flora 1 1535 63.75% 20.37%
7 1992-06-20 54.7 TVMV 3 1259 12.00% @ Flora 1 1460 67.66% 20.34%
8 1992-05-26 54.4 @ DAG Tartu 2 1246 49.07% Polevkivi Johvi 2 1240 30.35% 20.58%
9 1992-05-02 54.1 @ Narva Trans 2 1091 48.29% DAG Tartu 2 1091 31.14% 20.58%
10 1992-06-16 52.8 Polevkivi Johvi 5 1361 36.18% @ TVMV 3 1324 43.23% 20.59%
11 1992-06-13 51.8 @ DAG Tartu 1 1216 33.09% TVMV 1 1327 46.35% 20.57%
12 1992-05-02 51.2 @ Parnu Vaprus 1 1091 48.29% Tallinna Dnamo 1 1091 31.14% 20.58%
13 1992-05-02 51.2 @ Merkuur 1 1091 48.29% Tulevik Viljandi 1 1091 31.14% 20.58%
14 1992-06-20 51.2 Keemik 2 958 18.66% @ Tallinna Dnamo 1 1071 60.85% 20.48%
15 1992-06-20 51.2 @ Tulevik Viljandi 1 750 22.37% Sillame Kalev 1 951 57.15% 20.48%
16 1992-05-26 51.1 @ Keemik 1 944 49.83% Sillame Kalev 1 932 29.60% 20.57%
17 1992-06-13 51.1 @ Merkuur 1 847 37.53% Keemik 1 925 41.89% 20.58%
18 1992-05-16 48.9 @ Sillame Kalev 2 925 26.17% Maardu 1 1091 53.31% 20.52%
19 1992-05-04 47.5 TVMV 2 1091 31.14% @ Vigri Tallinn 1 1091 48.29% 20.58%
20 1992-06-06 46.5 Norma Tallinn 2 1520 53.14% @ TVMV 1 1356 26.33% 20.52%
21 1992-06-20 45.4 @ Narva Trans 1 1012 29.23% Vigri Tallinn 0 1152 50.22% 20.54%
22 1992-06-27 45.4 @ Vigri Tallinn 1 1098 29.63% DAG Tartu 0 1235 49.82% 20.55%
23 1992-05-23 45.2 Vigri Tallinn 4 1125 58.48% @ Merkuur 3 912 21.06% 20.46%
24 1992-06-16 45.1 @ Parnu Vaprus 3 1005 36.90% Narva Trans 1 1087 42.52% 20.58%
25 1992-05-09 44.8 Parnu Vaprus 1 1087 31.14% @ Merkuur 0 1087 48.29% 20.58%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-05-26 27.4 @ TVMV 7 1339 77.27% Merkuur 0 890 3.12% 19.60%
2 1992-06-27 28.5 @ TVMV 10 1376 73.24% Narva Trans 0 1065 6.69% 20.07%
3 1992-06-13 28.9 @ Flora 4 1523 78.35% Parnu Vaprus 0 1016 2.28% 19.37%
4 1992-05-23 29.1 @ Flora 3 1491 78.87% Keemik 0 952 1.90% 19.23%
5 1992-05-19 30.0 @ Flora 19 1230 67.11% Maardu 0 1038 12.54% 20.36%
6 1992-05-22 30.0 TVMV 4 1304 72.80% @ Tallinna Dnamo 0 882 7.21% 19.99%
7 1992-05-27 30.0 @ Narva Trans 3 1069 75.01% Maardu 0 707 5.08% 19.92%
8 1992-05-15 30.1 @ Norma Tallinn 9 1234 67.49% Merkuur 0 1035 12.16% 20.35%
9 1992-05-23 30.4 DAG Tartu 10 1176 71.78% @ Maardu 1 777 8.16% 20.06%
10 1992-05-30 30.4 Polevkivi Johvi 7 1243 76.98% @ Maardu 1 688 3.50% 19.52%
11 1992-05-26 30.7 @ Norma Tallinn 6 1404 78.60% Tulevik Viljandi 1 882 2.10% 19.31%
12 1992-06-13 31.0 Norma Tallinn 6 1550 72.13% @ Narva Trans 0 1143 7.84% 20.03%
13 1992-06-06 31.9 @ Keemik 3 885 68.71% Maardu 0 667 10.99% 20.30%
14 1992-06-27 32.3 Merkuur 3 824 67.12% @ Maardu 0 507 12.61% 20.27%
15 1992-06-16 32.5 Tallinna Dnamo 4 1059 76.61% @ Maardu 1 519 3.82% 19.58%
16 1992-05-30 33.3 @ Narva Trans 3 1088 63.87% Keemik 0 940 15.70% 20.43%
17 1992-05-30 33.4 @ Norma Tallinn 6 1415 63.82% Vigri Tallinn 0 1267 15.74% 20.44%
18 1992-06-16 34.0 @ Norma Tallinn 3 1605 75.73% DAG Tartu 0 1219 4.44% 19.84%
19 1992-05-09 34.7 @ Flora 3 1091 59.35% Sillame Kalev 0 994 20.14% 20.50%
20 1992-05-15 34.9 @ Vigri Tallinn 3 1042 58.63% Tallinna Dnamo 0 952 20.85% 20.51%
21 1992-05-16 35.1 @ Parnu Vaprus 4 1139 68.13% Tulevik Viljandi 1 930 11.54% 20.32%
22 1992-06-27 35.2 Polevkivi Johvi 3 1432 71.05% @ Parnu Vaprus 1 1048 8.85% 20.10%
23 1992-06-06 35.4 @ DAG Tartu 2 1206 71.42% Sillame Kalev 1 937 8.40% 20.19%
24 1992-06-13 36.2 @ Polevkivi Johvi 6 1276 60.96% Vigri Tallinn 1 1162 18.56% 20.48%
25 1992-05-26 36.5 @ Vigri Tallinn 4 1148 51.07% Parnu Vaprus 0 1126 28.36% 20.57%