2004 1. deild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

HB Torshavn

41 points · 18th Title

Last Title: 2003.0

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

HB Torshavn

7.97 points above expected

41 points · 33.03 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

B68 Toftir

11.61 points below expected

8 points · 19.61 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	HB Torshavn Champion	18	12	5	1	41	47	18	+29	33.03	+7.97
2	B36 Torshavn	18	10	4	4	34	37	21	+16	31.68	+2.32
3	Skala IF	18	9	3	6	30	32	23	+9	24.74	+5.26
4	KI Klaksvik	18	6	8	4	26	25	24	+1	24.66	+1.34
5	EB-Streymur	18	7	4	7	25	30	25	+5	24.27	+0.73
6	NSI Runavik	18	7	4	7	25	28	25	+3	28.56	-3.56
7	Vagur	18	7	4	7	25	27	24	+3	23.44	+1.56
8	GI Gota	18	6	5	7	23	31	35	-4	22.52	+0.48
9	Fuglafjordur	18	3	3	12	12	25	51	-26	16.09	-4.09
10	B68 Toftir	18	2	2	14	8	19	55	-36	19.61	-11.61

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	HB Torshavn	41	33.03	+7.97
2	Skala IF	30	24.74	+5.26
3	B36 Torshavn	34	31.68	+2.32
4	Vagur	25	23.44	+1.56
5	KI Klaksvik	26	24.66	+1.34

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	B68 Toftir	8	19.61	-11.61
2	Fuglafjordur	12	16.09	-4.09
3	NSI Runavik	25	28.56	-3.56
4	GI Gota	23	22.52	+0.48
5	EB-Streymur	25	24.27	+0.73

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	GI Gota	4	Jun 26 – Aug 15	1 in 77
2	HB Torshavn	8	Jun 20 – Sep 12	1 in 73
3	KI Klaksvik	3	Aug 22 – Sep 12	1 in 33
4	Skala IF	3	May 16 – May 29	1 in 23
5	B36 Torshavn	4	Jun 20 – Aug 8	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	B68 Toftir	6	Apr 25 – Jun 6	1 in 280
2	NSI Runavik	3	Jun 30 – Aug 9	1 in 51
3	Vagur	3	Aug 29 – Sep 19	1 in 41
4	Fuglafjordur	4	May 16 – Jun 6	1 in 16
5	Skala IF	3	Jun 23 – Aug 4	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	HB Torshavn	17	May 2 – Oct 2	1 in 66
2	Skala IF	7	Apr 21 – Jun 13	1 in 36
3	NSI Runavik	6	May 16 – Jun 23	1 in 12
4	Vagur	5	May 20 – Jun 20	1 in 11
5	KI Klaksvik	5	Jun 6 – Aug 3	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	B68 Toftir	14	Apr 25 – Aug 29	1 in 145
2	KI Klaksvik	7	May 2 – Jun 20	1 in 25
3	HB Torshavn	3	Sep 19 – Oct 2	1 in 14
4	GI Gota	6	May 16 – Jun 20	1 in 11
5	Fuglafjordur	8	May 16 – Aug 1	1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
HB Torshavn	1143	41	+15	9	10.0	-1.0
B36 Torshavn	1066	34	+21	10	9.0	+1.0
Skala IF	978	30	-21	4	6.6	-2.6
KI Klaksvik	960	26	+7	10	6.8	+3.2
EB-Streymur	977	25	+14	8	8.1	-0.1
NSI Runavik	1003	25	-11	7	6.9	+0.1
Vagur	951	25	+1	6	7.1	-1.1
GI Gota	936	23	-19	3	5.8	-2.8
Fuglafjordur	784	12	-2	5	4.2	+0.8
B68 Toftir	819	8	-5	6	4.5	+1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BT	BT	EB-	FUG	GG	HT	KK	NR	SI	VAG
B36 Torshavn	—	2-0-0 4.06	2-0-0 3.33	1-1-0 4.34	1-0-1 3.42	0-0-2 2.36	1-1-0 3.28	1-1-0 3.04	1-0-1 3.29	1-1-0 3.45
B68 Toftir	0-0-2 1.50	—	0-0-2 1.95	1-1-0 3.10	0-0-2 2.63	0-0-2 1.39	0-1-1 2.39	0-0-2 2.10	0-0-2 2.32	1-0-1 2.12
EB-Streymur	0-0-2 2.18	2-0-0 3.58	—	1-1-0 3.62	1-1-0 2.58	0-1-1 1.84	1-1-0 2.40	1-0-1 2.35	1-0-1 2.67	0-0-2 2.88
Fuglafjordur	0-1-1 1.24	0-1-1 2.40	0-1-1 1.91	—	0-0-2 1.97	0-0-2 1.36	0-0-2 1.64	2-0-0 1.57	0-0-2 1.93	1-0-1 1.89
GI Gota	1-0-1 2.10	2-0-0 2.89	0-1-1 2.93	2-0-0 3.55	—	0-1-1 1.54	0-1-1 2.76	0-1-1 2.27	0-1-1 2.45	1-0-1 2.60
HB Torshavn	2-0-0 3.15	2-0-0 4.19	1-1-0 3.70	2-0-0 4.24	1-1-0 4.02	—	0-2-0 3.85	1-1-0 3.52	1-0-1 3.65	2-0-0 3.74
KI Klaksvik	0-1-1 2.23	1-1-0 3.12	0-1-1 3.12	2-0-0 3.91	1-1-0 2.75	0-2-0 1.69	—	1-0-1 2.40	1-1-0 2.55	0-1-1 3.00
NSI Runavik	0-1-1 2.47	2-0-0 3.42	1-0-1 3.16	0-0-2 3.99	1-1-0 3.25	0-1-1 2.00	1-0-1 3.11	—	2-0-0 2.84	0-1-1 3.41
Skala IF	1-0-1 2.22	2-0-0 3.22	1-0-1 2.84	2-0-0 3.60	1-1-0 3.06	1-0-1 1.88	0-1-1 2.96	0-0-2 2.67	—	1-1-0 2.83
Vagur	0-1-1 2.08	1-0-1 3.40	2-0-0 2.63	1-0-1 3.64	1-0-1 2.91	0-0-2 1.79	1-1-0 2.51	1-1-0 2.11	0-1-1 2.68	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.80	+11.2
Allowed	0.85	-6.9
Differential	0.98	+5.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	5.00%	7.22%	1.11%	2.22%	1.67%	20.56%
1	5.00%	14.44%	6.11%	4.44%	1.67%	1.11%	32.78%
2	7.22%	6.11%	4.44%	2.78%	2.78%	1.67%	25.00%
3	1.11%	4.44%	2.78%	1.11%	0.56%	—	10.00%
4	2.22%	1.67%	2.78%	0.56%	—	—	7.22%
5+	1.67%	1.11%	1.67%	—	—	—	4.44%
Total	20.56%	32.78%	25.00%	10.00%	7.22%	4.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	1.67	+0.00
SD	1.45	1.45	2.20
CV	0.87	0.87	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	38.89%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	27.78%	—	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.06	1.17	+0.89
SD	1.55	1.25	2.05
CV	0.75	1.07	—
Max	6	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	11.11%	33.33%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	16.67%	27.78%	11.11%	11.11%	27.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	3.06	-2.00
SD	0.94	1.95	2.17
CV	0.89	0.64	—
Max	3	7	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	38.89%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	33.33%	33.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	1.39	+0.28
SD	1.94	1.09	2.59
CV	1.16	0.79	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	44.44%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	16.67%	27.78%	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	2.83	-1.44
SD	1.04	1.79	2.18
CV	0.75	0.63	—
Max	4	7	+2
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	1.94	-0.22
SD	1.32	1.21	1.90
CV	0.77	0.62	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	38.89%	33.33%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.61	1.00	+1.61
SD	1.82	1.03	1.94
CV	0.70	1.03	—
Max	7	3	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	27.78%	—	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	50.00%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.33	+0.06
SD	1.42	1.03	1.80
CV	1.02	0.77	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	44.44%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.39	+0.17
SD	1.25	1.04	1.76
CV	0.80	0.75	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	1.28	+0.50
SD	1.44	1.23	2.01
CV	0.81	0.96	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	44.44%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.33	+0.17
SD	1.25	1.14	1.54
CV	0.83	0.85	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
HB Torshavn	1143	41	33.03	+7.97	95.0%	16	23	30	33	36	41	46
B36 Torshavn	1066	34	31.68	+2.32	66.0%	15	22	28	32	36	41	45
NSI Runavik	1003	25	28.56	-3.56	25.0%	15	21	25	29	32	36	42
Skala IF	978	30	24.74	+5.26	82.0%	14	16	21	24	28	34	37
EB-Streymur	977	25	24.27	+0.73	62.0%	11	14	21	24	29	32	37
KI Klaksvik	960	26	24.66	+1.34	63.0%	12	15	21	25	28	33	37
Vagur	951	25	23.44	+1.56	67.0%	12	15	19	23	26	32	37
GI Gota	936	23	22.52	+0.48	58.0%	7	11	19	21	27	32	35
B68 Toftir	819	8	19.61	-11.61	0.0%	9	11	15	20	23	28	33
Fuglafjordur	784	12	16.09	-4.09	26.0%	5	8	12	16	19	25	32

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 22% * Strong Edge: 22% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+10.00%

Slight Edge

43.33%23.33%33.33%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 34.86 Elo pts.

124 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.21 goals

Neutral

-2+0.28+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.22 * Comfortable: 0.22 to 0.38 * Runaway: 0.38 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.3

Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

42%

HB Torshavn, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.39/gm

Runaway

00.230.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.32 * Some Luck: 4.32 to 6.48 * Lucky: 6.48 to 8.64 * Wild Swing: 8.64 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.43 * Close: 1.43 to 2.15 * Off: 2.15 to 2.86 * Way Off: 2.86 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.16 points

Some Luck

05.4014

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.80

Pinpoint

01.794

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

95.00%

HB Torshavn

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

0.00%

B68 Toftir

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.45 * Moderate Separation: 1.45 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68.5% * Slight Edge: 68.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 88% * Wide Edge: 88% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 93.5% * Strong Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 44.5% * Some Drama: 44.5% to 50.5% * Frequent: 50.5% to 57% * Very Frequent: 57% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 25% * Frequent: 25% to 33.5% * Very Frequent: 33.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Even

00.190.280.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 104.71

1.70

Moderate Separation

0.851.451.82.153.25

Interquartile Edge

58%

Even

50%68.5%79%88%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

89%

Clear Edge

50%88%100%

Close Games

Expected

52%

Frequent

0%50%100%

Blowouts

Expected

19%

Rare

0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.49 * Notable Separation: 0.49 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.4 * Some Carryover: 0.4 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.60

Predictable

00.612

Matchup Imbalance

0.30

Very Even

00.390.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.95

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.44

Some Carryover

00.40.610.771

Upset Rate

Expected

28%

Very Upset-Prone

0%26%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

20%

Shaky Favorites

0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.

Probability calibration

0.84

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.14

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.103

Well Within Noise

00.1750.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
HB Torshavn	42.00%	25.00%	14.00%	7.00%	5.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	2.00%	—
B36 Torshavn	34.00%	19.00%	21.00%	7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—
Skala IF	5.00%	8.00%	7.00%	14.00%	15.00%	15.00%	18.00%	8.00%	7.00%	3.00%
KI Klaksvik	2.00%	7.00%	9.00%	17.00%	18.00%	10.00%	13.00%	15.00%	6.00%	3.00%
EB-Streymur	5.00%	7.00%	9.00%	14.00%	12.00%	13.00%	14.00%	12.00%	9.00%	5.00%
NSI Runavik	8.00%	20.00%	20.00%	10.00%	20.00%	12.00%	6.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—
Vagur	3.00%	6.00%	9.00%	12.00%	8.00%	14.00%	10.00%	21.00%	11.00%	6.00%
GI Gota	—	7.00%	7.00%	14.00%	7.00%	12.00%	11.00%	16.00%	18.00%	8.00%
Fuglafjordur	—	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	3.00%	5.00%	15.00%	20.00%	52.00%
B68 Toftir	1.00%	—	3.00%	4.00%	7.00%	12.00%	17.00%	10.00%	23.00%	23.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
B36 Torshavn	98.00%	2.00%	—
HB Torshavn	98.00%	2.00%	—
NSI Runavik	98.00%	2.00%	—
KI Klaksvik	91.00%	6.00%	3.00%
Skala IF	90.00%	7.00%	3.00%
EB-Streymur	86.00%	9.00%	5.00%
Vagur	83.00%	11.00%	6.00%
GI Gota	74.00%	18.00%	8.00%
B68 Toftir	54.00%	23.00%	23.00%
Fuglafjordur	28.00%	20.00%	52.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2004-04-21	HB Torshavn	W 3-1	47.2	909	1038	25.60%	24.03%	50.37%	-0.76	+17.9	3
2004-04-21	@ Skala IF	L 1-3	47.2	1038	909	50.37%	24.03%	25.60%	+0.76	-17.9	0
2004-04-25	B68 Toftir	W 1-0	41.0	964	991	38.85%	24.74%	36.41%	+0.07	+8.5	3
2004-04-25	@ KI Klaksvik	L 0-1	41.0	991	964	36.41%	24.74%	38.85%	-0.07	-8.5	0
2004-04-25	EB-Streymur	W 4-0	31.0	1013	939	52.23%	23.78%	23.98%	+0.88	+21.6	3
2004-04-25	@ B36 Torshavn	L 0-4	31.0	939	1013	23.98%	23.78%	52.23%	-0.88	-21.6	0
2004-04-25	Fuglafjordur	W 3-2	46.7	953	879	52.16%	23.79%	24.05%	+0.88	+5.4	3
2004-04-25	@ GI Gota	L 2-3	46.7	879	953	24.05%	23.79%	52.16%	-0.88	-5.4	0
2004-04-25	Vagur	D 1-1	52.1	1008	921	53.76%	23.55%	22.69%	+0.99	-1.5	1
2004-04-25	@ NSI Runavik	D 1-1	52.1	921	1008	22.69%	23.55%	53.76%	-0.99	+1.5	1
2004-05-02	GI Gota	L 0-2	40.8	982	959	45.79%	24.46%	29.74%	+0.47	-19.1	0
2004-05-02	@ B68 Toftir	W 2-0	40.8	959	982	29.74%	24.46%	45.79%	-0.47	+19.1	6
2004-05-02	HB Torshavn	D 0-0	48.2	917	1020	28.66%	24.37%	46.97%	-0.55	+1.0	1
2004-05-02	@ EB-Streymur	D 0-0	48.2	1020	917	46.97%	24.37%	28.66%	+0.55	-1.0	1
2004-05-02	KI Klaksvik	D 2-2	57.1	1035	973	50.70%	23.99%	25.32%	+0.78	-0.9	4
2004-05-02	@ B36 Torshavn	D 2-2	57.1	973	1035	25.32%	23.99%	50.70%	-0.78	+0.9	4
2004-05-02	NSI Runavik	W 4-2	51.7	874	1007	25.16%	23.97%	50.87%	-0.79	+16.2	3
2004-05-02	@ Fuglafjordur	L 2-4	51.7	1007	874	50.87%	23.97%	25.16%	+0.79	-16.2	1
2004-05-02	Skala IF	D 0-0	48.1	923	926	42.04%	24.67%	33.30%	+0.25	-0.5	2
2004-05-02	@ Vagur	D 0-0	48.1	926	923	33.30%	24.67%	42.04%	-0.25	+0.4	4
2004-05-16	B36 Torshavn	L 0-3	35.4	978	1034	34.61%	24.71%	40.68%	-0.17	-22.3	6
2004-05-16	@ GI Gota	W 3-0	35.4	1034	978	40.68%	24.71%	34.61%	+0.17	+22.3	7
2004-05-16	B68 Toftir	W 3-2	48.5	991	963	46.28%	24.43%	29.29%	+0.50	+6.4	4
2004-05-16	@ NSI Runavik	L 2-3	48.5	963	991	29.29%	24.43%	46.28%	-0.50	-6.4	0
2004-05-16	EB-Streymur	D 2-2	57.1	974	918	49.92%	24.08%	26.00%	+0.73	-0.9	5
2004-05-16	@ KI Klaksvik	D 2-2	57.1	918	974	26.00%	24.08%	49.92%	-0.73	+0.9	2
2004-05-16	Fuglafjordur	W 4-3	51.4	927	890	47.51%	24.33%	28.17%	+0.58	+6.0	7
2004-05-16	@ Skala IF	L 3-4	51.4	890	927	28.17%	24.33%	47.51%	-0.58	-6.0	3
2004-05-16	Vagur	W 2-1	40.8	1019	922	54.83%	23.37%	21.80%	+1.06	+5.2	4
2004-05-16	@ HB Torshavn	L 1-2	40.8	922	1019	21.80%	23.37%	54.83%	-1.06	-5.2	2
2004-05-20	GI Gota	D 1-1	51.8	973	955	44.97%	24.52%	30.51%	+0.42	-0.7	6
2004-05-20	@ KI Klaksvik	D 1-1	51.8	955	973	30.51%	24.52%	44.97%	-0.42	+0.7	7
2004-05-20	HB Torshavn	L 0-2	34.2	884	1024	24.43%	23.86%	51.71%	-0.85	-11.6	3
2004-05-20	@ Fuglafjordur	W 2-0	34.2	1024	884	51.71%	23.86%	24.43%	+0.85	+11.6	7
2004-05-20	NSI Runavik	D 1-1	52.0	1056	997	50.35%	24.03%	25.62%	+0.76	-1.2	8
2004-05-20	@ B36 Torshavn	D 1-1	52.0	997	1056	25.62%	24.03%	50.35%	-0.76	+1.2	5
2004-05-20	Skala IF	L 0-4	37.8	957	933	45.80%	24.46%	29.73%	+0.47	-36.3	0
2004-05-20	@ B68 Toftir	W 4-0	37.8	933	957	29.73%	24.46%	45.80%	-0.47	+36.3	10
2004-05-20	Vagur	L 0-2	39.9	919	917	42.82%	24.64%	32.54%	+0.30	-18.1	2
2004-05-20	@ EB-Streymur	W 2-0	39.9	917	919	32.54%	24.64%	42.82%	-0.30	+18.1	5
2004-05-29	B36 Torshavn	W 2-0	40.5	969	1055	30.71%	24.53%	44.76%	-0.41	+18.8	13
2004-05-29	@ Skala IF	L 0-2	40.5	1055	969	44.76%	24.53%	30.71%	+0.41	-18.8	8
2004-05-29	B68 Toftir	W 7-1	32.8	1035	921	56.92%	22.98%	20.10%	+1.21	+22.3	10
2004-05-29	@ HB Torshavn	L 1-7	32.8	921	1035	20.10%	22.98%	56.92%	-1.21	-22.3	0
2004-05-29	EB-Streymur	L 1-3	47.0	956	901	49.84%	24.09%	26.07%	+0.73	-17.8	7
2004-05-29	@ GI Gota	W 3-1	47.0	901	956	26.07%	24.09%	49.84%	-0.73	+17.8	5
2004-05-29	Fuglafjordur	W 3-1	39.6	935	872	50.80%	23.98%	25.23%	+0.79	+10.3	8
2004-05-29	@ Vagur	L 1-3	39.6	872	935	25.23%	23.98%	50.80%	-0.79	-10.3	3
2004-05-29	KI Klaksvik	W 3-1	41.0	998	972	46.08%	24.44%	29.48%	+0.49	+11.7	8
2004-05-29	@ NSI Runavik	L 1-3	41.0	972	998	29.48%	24.44%	46.08%	-0.49	-11.7	6
2004-06-06	Fuglafjordur	W 7-0	33.2	919	862	50.03%	24.07%	25.91%	+0.74	+39.1	8
2004-06-06	@ EB-Streymur	L 0-7	33.2	862	919	25.91%	24.07%	50.03%	-0.74	-39.1	3
2004-06-06	HB Torshavn	L 2-5	45.3	1036	1058	39.54%	24.73%	35.72%	+0.11	-18.0	8
2004-06-06	@ B36 Torshavn	W 5-2	45.3	1058	1036	35.72%	24.73%	39.54%	-0.11	+18.0	13
2004-06-06	NSI Runavik	D 1-1	51.8	938	1010	32.52%	24.64%	42.84%	-0.30	+0.5	8
2004-06-06	@ GI Gota	D 1-1	51.8	1010	938	42.84%	24.64%	32.52%	+0.30	-0.5	9
2004-06-06	Skala IF	D 1-1	51.8	961	988	38.70%	24.74%	36.56%	+0.06	-0.1	7
2004-06-06	@ KI Klaksvik	D 1-1	51.8	988	961	36.56%	24.74%	38.70%	-0.06	+0.1	14
2004-06-06	Vagur	L 1-3	43.0	898	945	35.88%	24.74%	39.39%	-0.10	-13.7	0
2004-06-06	@ B68 Toftir	W 3-1	43.0	945	898	39.39%	24.74%	35.88%	+0.10	+13.7	11
2004-06-12	EB-Streymur	W 1-0	37.8	1010	958	49.43%	24.14%	26.44%	+0.70	+6.6	12
2004-06-12	@ NSI Runavik	L 0-1	37.8	958	1010	26.44%	24.14%	49.43%	-0.70	-6.6	8
2004-06-13	B36 Torshavn	D 1-1	51.8	959	1018	34.22%	24.70%	41.08%	-0.20	+0.3	12
2004-06-13	@ Vagur	D 1-1	51.8	1018	959	41.08%	24.70%	34.22%	+0.20	-0.3	9
2004-06-13	B68 Toftir	D 1-1	51.8	823	885	33.89%	24.69%	41.42%	-0.22	+0.3	4
2004-06-13	@ Fuglafjordur	D 1-1	51.8	885	823	41.42%	24.69%	33.89%	+0.22	-0.3	1
2004-06-13	GI Gota	W 4-0	32.0	988	939	49.12%	24.17%	26.71%	+0.68	+23.7	17
2004-06-13	@ Skala IF	L 0-4	32.0	939	988	26.71%	24.17%	49.12%	-0.68	-23.7	8
2004-06-13	KI Klaksvik	D 1-1	52.3	1076	961	56.97%	22.97%	20.06%	+1.21	-1.8	14
2004-06-13	@ HB Torshavn	D 1-1	52.3	961	1076	20.06%	22.97%	56.97%	-1.21	+1.8	8
2004-06-20	B68 Toftir	W 2-1	41.9	951	884	51.32%	23.91%	24.77%	+0.82	+5.9	11
2004-06-20	@ EB-Streymur	L 1-2	41.9	884	951	24.77%	23.91%	51.32%	-0.82	-5.9	1
2004-06-20	Fuglafjordur	W 4-1	33.1	1018	823	65.01%	20.85%	14.14%	+1.85	+8.5	12
2004-06-20	@ B36 Torshavn	L 1-4	33.1	823	1018	14.14%	20.85%	65.01%	-1.85	-8.4	4
2004-06-20	HB Torshavn	L 1-3	38.7	915	1074	22.49%	23.51%	54.00%	-1.00	-9.3	8
2004-06-20	@ GI Gota	W 3-1	38.7	1074	915	54.00%	23.51%	22.49%	+1.00	+9.3	17
2004-06-20	Vagur	D 0-0	48.1	962	959	42.95%	24.63%	32.42%	+0.30	-0.6	9
2004-06-20	@ KI Klaksvik	D 0-0	48.1	959	962	32.42%	24.63%	42.95%	-0.30	+0.5	13
2004-06-23	Skala IF	W 2-0	36.8	1016	1012	43.16%	24.62%	32.22%	+0.32	+14.5	15
2004-06-23	@ NSI Runavik	L 0-2	36.8	1012	1016	32.22%	24.62%	43.16%	-0.32	-14.5	17
2004-06-26	EB-Streymur	L 2-3	54.0	997	957	47.94%	24.29%	27.78%	+0.61	-9.4	17
2004-06-26	@ Skala IF	W 3-2	54.0	957	997	27.78%	24.29%	47.94%	-0.61	+9.4	14
2004-06-26	GI Gota	L 2-4	51.4	960	906	49.75%	24.10%	26.15%	+0.72	-15.9	13
2004-06-26	@ Vagur	W 4-2	51.4	906	960	26.15%	24.10%	49.75%	-0.72	+15.9	11
2004-06-27	KI Klaksvik	L 1-6	34.5	815	962	23.70%	23.74%	52.56%	-0.90	-21.8	4
2004-06-27	@ Fuglafjordur	W 6-1	34.5	962	815	52.56%	23.74%	23.70%	+0.90	+21.8	12
2004-06-28	B36 Torshavn	L 0-2	33.9	878	1026	23.59%	23.72%	52.70%	-0.91	-11.2	1
2004-06-28	@ B68 Toftir	W 2-0	33.9	1026	878	52.70%	23.72%	23.59%	+0.91	+11.2	15
2004-06-30	NSI Runavik	W 1-0	37.8	1083	1031	49.53%	24.12%	26.34%	+0.71	+6.5	20
2004-06-30	@ HB Torshavn	L 0-1	37.8	1031	1083	26.34%	24.12%	49.53%	-0.71	-6.5	15
2004-08-01	GI Gota	L 1-2	42.2	793	922	25.66%	24.04%	50.30%	-0.76	-6.0	4
2004-08-01	@ Fuglafjordur	W 2-1	42.2	922	793	50.30%	24.04%	25.66%	+0.76	+6.0	14
2004-08-03	B36 Torshavn	L 0-2	36.9	966	1038	32.61%	24.64%	42.75%	-0.29	-14.7	14
2004-08-03	@ EB-Streymur	W 2-0	36.9	1038	966	42.75%	24.64%	32.61%	+0.29	+14.7	18
2004-08-03	KI Klaksvik	D 1-1	51.9	867	984	27.01%	24.20%	48.78%	-0.66	+1.0	2
2004-08-03	@ B68 Toftir	D 1-1	51.9	984	867	48.78%	24.20%	27.01%	+0.66	-1.0	13
2004-08-04	NSI Runavik	W 3-1	45.4	944	1024	31.46%	24.58%	43.96%	-0.36	+16.0	16
2004-08-04	@ Vagur	L 1-3	45.4	1024	944	43.96%	24.58%	31.46%	+0.36	-16.0	15
2004-08-04	Skala IF	W 4-1	36.0	1090	988	55.48%	23.26%	21.27%	+1.11	+12.5	23
2004-08-04	@ HB Torshavn	L 1-4	36.0	988	1090	21.27%	23.26%	55.48%	-1.11	-12.5	17
2004-08-08	B36 Torshavn	L 0-1	39.9	983	1052	32.80%	24.65%	42.55%	-0.28	-7.8	13
2004-08-08	@ KI Klaksvik	W 1-0	39.9	1052	983	42.55%	24.65%	32.80%	+0.28	+7.8	21
2004-08-08	B68 Toftir	W 5-2	40.9	928	868	50.38%	24.03%	25.59%	+0.76	+12.8	17
2004-08-08	@ GI Gota	L 2-5	40.9	868	928	25.59%	24.03%	50.38%	-0.76	-12.8	2
2004-08-08	EB-Streymur	W 3-0	29.4	1102	952	60.72%	22.10%	17.18%	+1.50	+12.2	26
2004-08-08	@ HB Torshavn	L 0-3	29.4	952	1102	17.18%	22.10%	60.72%	-1.50	-12.2	14
2004-08-08	Vagur	W 1-0	39.3	975	960	44.62%	24.54%	30.83%	+0.40	+7.4	20
2004-08-08	@ Skala IF	L 0-1	39.3	960	975	30.83%	24.54%	44.62%	-0.40	-7.4	16
2004-08-09	Fuglafjordur	L 1-2	53.5	1008	787	67.40%	20.02%	12.57%	+2.07	-13.3	15
2004-08-09	@ NSI Runavik	W 2-1	53.5	787	1008	12.57%	20.02%	67.40%	-2.07	+13.3	7
2004-08-15	GI Gota	L 0-2	43.8	1060	940	57.46%	22.87%	19.67%	+1.25	-23.2	21
2004-08-15	@ B36 Torshavn	W 2-0	43.8	940	1060	19.67%	22.87%	57.46%	-1.25	+23.2	20
2004-08-15	HB Torshavn	L 0-2	33.4	953	1115	22.21%	23.46%	54.33%	-1.03	-10.7	16
2004-08-15	@ Vagur	W 2-0	33.4	1115	953	54.33%	23.46%	22.21%	+1.03	+10.6	29
2004-08-15	KI Klaksvik	W 4-0	35.4	940	975	37.59%	24.75%	37.66%	+0.00	+31.1	17
2004-08-15	@ EB-Streymur	L 0-4	35.4	975	940	37.66%	24.75%	37.59%	+0.00	-31.1	13
2004-08-15	NSI Runavik	L 0-5	31.4	855	995	24.49%	23.87%	51.65%	-0.84	-27.1	2
2004-08-15	@ B68 Toftir	W 5-0	31.4	995	855	51.65%	23.87%	24.49%	+0.84	+27.1	18
2004-08-15	Skala IF	L 1-4	35.6	800	983	20.30%	23.03%	56.67%	-1.19	-12.0	7
2004-08-15	@ Fuglafjordur	W 4-1	35.6	983	800	56.67%	23.03%	20.30%	+1.19	+12.0	23
2004-08-22	B36 Torshavn	L 1-2	46.8	1022	1037	40.46%	24.72%	34.83%	+0.16	-8.7	18
2004-08-22	@ NSI Runavik	W 2-1	46.8	1037	1022	34.83%	24.72%	40.46%	-0.16	+8.6	24
2004-08-22	B68 Toftir	W 2-1	38.6	995	828	62.31%	21.67%	16.01%	+1.63	+3.9	26
2004-08-22	@ Skala IF	L 1-2	38.6	828	995	16.01%	21.67%	62.31%	-1.63	-3.9	2
2004-08-22	EB-Streymur	W 2-1	45.7	942	971	38.51%	24.75%	36.74%	+0.05	+8.1	19
2004-08-22	@ Vagur	L 1-2	45.7	971	942	36.74%	24.75%	38.51%	-0.05	-8.0	17
2004-08-22	Fuglafjordur	W 4-2	36.3	1125	788	76.41%	16.08%	7.50%	+3.00	+2.7	32
2004-08-22	@ HB Torshavn	L 2-4	36.3	788	1125	7.50%	16.08%	76.41%	-3.00	-2.7	7
2004-08-22	KI Klaksvik	L 1-2	48.2	964	944	45.27%	24.50%	30.23%	+0.44	-9.5	20
2004-08-22	@ GI Gota	W 2-1	48.2	944	964	30.23%	24.50%	45.27%	-0.44	+9.5	16
2004-08-29	GI Gota	D 1-1	51.8	963	954	43.73%	24.59%	31.67%	+0.35	-0.6	18
2004-08-29	@ EB-Streymur	D 1-1	51.8	954	963	31.67%	24.59%	43.73%	-0.35	+0.6	21
2004-08-29	HB Torshavn	L 0-5	26.3	824	1128	11.89%	19.61%	68.50%	-2.17	-13.5	2
2004-08-29	@ B68 Toftir	W 5-0	26.3	1128	824	68.50%	19.61%	11.89%	+2.17	+13.5	35
2004-08-29	NSI Runavik	W 1-0	42.4	953	1013	34.09%	24.70%	41.21%	-0.20	+9.3	19
2004-08-29	@ KI Klaksvik	L 0-1	42.4	1013	953	41.21%	24.70%	34.09%	+0.20	-9.3	18
2004-08-29	Skala IF	W 2-0	35.1	1046	999	48.81%	24.20%	26.99%	+0.66	+12.6	27
2004-08-29	@ B36 Torshavn	L 0-2	35.1	999	1046	26.99%	24.20%	48.81%	-0.66	-12.6	26
2004-08-29	Vagur	W 1-0	46.1	786	950	21.96%	23.41%	54.63%	-1.05	+11.8	10
2004-08-29	@ Fuglafjordur	L 0-1	46.1	950	786	54.63%	23.41%	21.96%	+1.05	-11.8	19
2004-09-12	B36 Torshavn	W 1-0	36.7	1141	1058	53.28%	23.63%	23.09%	+0.95	+5.8	38
2004-09-12	@ HB Torshavn	L 0-1	36.7	1058	1141	23.09%	23.63%	53.28%	-0.95	-5.8	27
2004-09-12	B68 Toftir	L 2-3	56.6	938	811	58.28%	22.69%	19.03%	+1.31	-11.2	19
2004-09-12	@ Vagur	W 3-2	56.6	811	938	19.03%	22.69%	58.28%	-1.31	+11.1	5
2004-09-12	EB-Streymur	D 1-1	52.1	798	962	21.94%	23.40%	54.66%	-1.05	+1.6	11
2004-09-12	@ Fuglafjordur	D 1-1	52.1	962	798	54.66%	23.40%	21.94%	+1.05	-1.6	19
2004-09-12	GI Gota	W 2-1	42.6	1004	955	49.11%	24.17%	26.72%	+0.68	+6.2	21
2004-09-12	@ NSI Runavik	L 1-2	42.6	955	1004	26.72%	24.17%	49.11%	-0.68	-6.2	21
2004-09-12	KI Klaksvik	L 1-2	48.4	986	962	45.76%	24.47%	29.77%	+0.47	-9.5	26
2004-09-12	@ Skala IF	W 2-1	48.4	962	986	29.77%	24.47%	45.76%	-0.47	+9.5	22
2004-09-19	Fuglafjordur	W 2-0	36.0	822	799	45.69%	24.47%	29.84%	+0.47	+13.7	8
2004-09-19	@ B68 Toftir	L 0-2	36.0	799	822	29.84%	24.47%	45.69%	-0.47	-13.7	11
2004-09-19	HB Torshavn	D 1-1	52.2	972	1147	20.95%	23.19%	55.86%	-1.13	+1.7	23
2004-09-19	@ KI Klaksvik	D 1-1	52.2	1147	972	55.86%	23.19%	20.95%	+1.13	-1.7	39
2004-09-19	NSI Runavik	W 2-0	39.1	961	1010	35.53%	24.73%	39.74%	-0.12	+17.1	22
2004-09-19	@ EB-Streymur	L 0-2	39.1	1010	961	39.74%	24.73%	35.53%	+0.12	-17.1	21
2004-09-19	Skala IF	D 1-1	51.8	948	976	38.60%	24.74%	36.66%	+0.05	-0.1	22
2004-09-19	@ GI Gota	D 1-1	51.8	976	948	36.66%	24.74%	38.60%	-0.05	+0.1	27
2004-09-19	Vagur	W 3-1	37.5	1052	927	58.05%	22.74%	19.21%	+1.29	+8.1	30
2004-09-19	@ B36 Torshavn	L 1-3	37.5	927	1052	19.21%	22.74%	58.05%	-1.29	-8.1	19
2004-09-26	B36 Torshavn	D 2-2	58.2	785	1060	13.48%	20.52%	65.99%	-1.94	+2.0	12
2004-09-26	@ Fuglafjordur	D 2-2	58.2	1060	785	65.99%	20.52%	13.48%	+1.94	-2.0	31
2004-09-26	GI Gota	D 3-3	62.5	1145	948	65.25%	20.77%	13.98%	+1.87	-1.6	40
2004-09-26	@ HB Torshavn	D 3-3	62.5	948	1145	13.98%	20.77%	65.25%	-1.87	+1.6	23
2004-09-26	KI Klaksvik	W 2-0	39.3	919	974	34.84%	24.72%	40.45%	-0.16	+17.3	22
2004-09-26	@ Vagur	L 0-2	39.3	974	919	40.45%	24.72%	34.84%	+0.16	-17.3	23
2004-09-27	EB-Streymur	L 2-4	43.6	836	978	24.23%	23.82%	51.95%	-0.86	-8.9	8
2004-09-27	@ B68 Toftir	W 4-2	43.6	978	836	51.95%	23.82%	24.23%	+0.86	+8.9	25
2004-09-27	NSI Runavik	L 1-2	46.8	977	993	40.24%	24.72%	35.04%	+0.15	-8.6	27
2004-09-27	@ Skala IF	W 2-1	46.8	993	977	35.04%	24.72%	40.24%	-0.15	+8.6	24
2004-10-02	B68 Toftir	W 6-2	32.9	1058	827	68.31%	19.69%	12.00%	+2.15	+7.8	34
2004-10-02	@ B36 Torshavn	L 2-6	32.9	827	1058	12.00%	19.69%	68.31%	-2.15	-7.8	8
2004-10-02	Fuglafjordur	W 3-2	43.6	956	787	62.57%	21.60%	15.83%	+1.65	+3.7	26
2004-10-02	@ KI Klaksvik	L 2-3	43.6	787	956	15.83%	21.60%	62.57%	-1.65	-3.7	12
2004-10-02	HB Torshavn	D 2-2	57.2	1002	1144	24.20%	23.82%	51.98%	-0.87	+1.0	25
2004-10-02	@ NSI Runavik	D 2-2	57.2	1144	1002	51.98%	23.82%	24.20%	+0.87	-1.0	41
2004-10-02	Skala IF	L 0-1	43.5	987	968	45.08%	24.51%	30.40%	+0.43	-10.0	25
2004-10-02	@ EB-Streymur	W 1-0	43.5	968	987	30.40%	24.51%	45.08%	-0.43	+10.0	30
2004-10-02	Vagur	L 2-4	49.9	950	936	44.41%	24.55%	31.03%	+0.39	-14.4	23
2004-10-02	@ GI Gota	W 4-2	49.9	936	950	31.03%	24.55%	44.41%	-0.39	+14.4	25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2004-08-09	12.57%	Fuglafjordur	787	2	@ NSI Runavik	1008	1
2	2004-09-12	19.03%	B68 Toftir	811	3	@ Vagur	938	2
3	2004-08-15	19.67%	GI Gota	940	2	@ B36 Torshavn	1060	0
4	2004-08-29	21.96%	@ Fuglafjordur	786	1	Vagur	950	0
5	2004-05-02	25.16%	@ Fuglafjordur	874	4	NSI Runavik	1007	2
6	2004-04-21	25.60%	@ Skala IF	909	3	HB Torshavn	1038	1
7	2004-05-29	26.07%	EB-Streymur	901	3	@ GI Gota	956	1
8	2004-06-26	26.15%	GI Gota	906	4	@ Vagur	960	2
9	2004-06-26	27.78%	EB-Streymur	957	3	@ Skala IF	997	2
10	2004-05-20	29.73%	Skala IF	933	4	@ B68 Toftir	957	0
11	2004-05-02	29.74%	GI Gota	959	2	@ B68 Toftir	982	0
12	2004-09-12	29.77%	KI Klaksvik	962	2	@ Skala IF	986	1
13	2004-08-22	30.23%	KI Klaksvik	944	2	@ GI Gota	964	1
14	2004-10-02	30.40%	Skala IF	968	1	@ EB-Streymur	987	0
15	2004-05-29	30.71%	@ Skala IF	969	2	B36 Torshavn	1055	0
16	2004-10-02	31.03%	Vagur	936	4	@ GI Gota	950	2
17	2004-08-04	31.46%	@ Vagur	944	3	NSI Runavik	1024	1
18	2004-05-20	32.54%	Vagur	917	2	@ EB-Streymur	919	0
19	2004-08-29	34.09%	@ KI Klaksvik	953	1	NSI Runavik	1013	0
20	2004-08-22	34.83%	B36 Torshavn	1037	2	@ NSI Runavik	1022	1
21	2004-09-26	34.84%	@ Vagur	919	2	KI Klaksvik	974	0
22	2004-09-27	35.04%	NSI Runavik	993	2	@ Skala IF	977	1
23	2004-09-19	35.53%	@ EB-Streymur	961	2	NSI Runavik	1010	0
24	2004-06-06	35.72%	HB Torshavn	1058	5	@ B36 Torshavn	1036	2
25	2004-08-15	37.59%	@ EB-Streymur	940	4	KI Klaksvik	975	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2004-06-06	39.10	@ EB-Streymur	7	919	50.03%	Fuglafjordur	0	862	25.91%	24.07%
2	2004-05-20	36.27	Skala IF	4	933	29.73%	@ B68 Toftir	0	957	45.80%	24.46%
3	2004-08-15	31.09	@ EB-Streymur	4	940	37.59%	KI Klaksvik	0	975	37.66%	24.75%
4	2004-08-15	27.12	NSI Runavik	5	995	51.65%	@ B68 Toftir	0	855	24.49%	23.87%
5	2004-06-13	23.68	@ Skala IF	4	988	49.12%	GI Gota	0	939	26.71%	24.17%
6	2004-08-15	23.21	GI Gota	2	940	19.67%	@ B36 Torshavn	0	1060	57.46%	22.87%
7	2004-05-16	22.31	B36 Torshavn	3	1034	40.68%	@ GI Gota	0	978	34.61%	24.71%
8	2004-05-29	22.28	@ HB Torshavn	7	1035	56.92%	B68 Toftir	1	921	20.10%	22.98%
9	2004-06-27	21.83	KI Klaksvik	6	962	52.56%	@ Fuglafjordur	1	815	23.70%	23.74%
10	2004-04-25	21.60	@ B36 Torshavn	4	1013	52.23%	EB-Streymur	0	939	23.98%	23.78%
11	2004-05-02	19.11	GI Gota	2	959	29.74%	@ B68 Toftir	0	982	45.79%	24.46%
12	2004-05-29	18.76	@ Skala IF	2	969	30.71%	B36 Torshavn	0	1055	44.76%	24.53%
13	2004-05-20	18.10	Vagur	2	917	32.54%	@ EB-Streymur	0	919	42.82%	24.64%
14	2004-06-06	18.04	HB Torshavn	5	1058	35.72%	@ B36 Torshavn	2	1036	39.54%	24.73%
15	2004-04-21	17.93	@ Skala IF	3	909	25.60%	HB Torshavn	1	1038	50.37%	24.03%
16	2004-05-29	17.77	EB-Streymur	3	901	26.07%	@ GI Gota	1	956	49.84%	24.09%
17	2004-09-26	17.31	@ Vagur	2	919	34.84%	KI Klaksvik	0	974	40.45%	24.72%
18	2004-09-19	17.07	@ EB-Streymur	2	961	35.53%	NSI Runavik	0	1010	39.74%	24.73%
19	2004-05-02	16.18	@ Fuglafjordur	4	874	25.16%	NSI Runavik	2	1007	50.87%	23.97%
20	2004-08-04	16.02	@ Vagur	3	944	31.46%	NSI Runavik	1	1024	43.96%	24.58%
21	2004-06-26	15.87	GI Gota	4	906	26.15%	@ Vagur	2	960	49.75%	24.10%
22	2004-08-03	14.67	B36 Torshavn	2	1038	42.75%	@ EB-Streymur	0	966	32.61%	24.64%
23	2004-06-23	14.54	@ NSI Runavik	2	1016	43.16%	Skala IF	0	1012	32.22%	24.62%
24	2004-10-02	14.44	Vagur	4	936	31.03%	@ GI Gota	2	950	44.41%	24.55%
25	2004-06-06	13.68	Vagur	3	945	39.39%	@ B68 Toftir	1	898	35.88%	24.74%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2004-09-26	62.5	@ HB Torshavn	3	1145	65.25%	GI Gota	3	948	13.98%	20.77%
2	2004-09-26	58.2	@ Fuglafjordur	2	785	13.48%	B36 Torshavn	2	1060	65.99%	20.52%
3	2004-10-02	57.2	@ NSI Runavik	2	1002	24.20%	HB Torshavn	2	1144	51.98%	23.82%
4	2004-05-02	57.1	@ B36 Torshavn	2	1035	50.70%	KI Klaksvik	2	973	25.32%	23.99%
5	2004-05-16	57.1	@ KI Klaksvik	2	974	49.92%	EB-Streymur	2	918	26.00%	24.08%
6	2004-09-12	56.6	B68 Toftir	3	811	19.03%	@ Vagur	2	938	58.28%	22.69%
7	2004-06-26	54.0	EB-Streymur	3	957	27.78%	@ Skala IF	2	997	47.94%	24.29%
8	2004-08-09	53.5	Fuglafjordur	2	787	12.57%	@ NSI Runavik	1	1008	67.40%	20.02%
9	2004-06-13	52.3	@ HB Torshavn	1	1076	56.97%	KI Klaksvik	1	961	20.06%	22.97%
10	2004-09-19	52.2	@ KI Klaksvik	1	972	20.95%	HB Torshavn	1	1147	55.86%	23.19%
11	2004-04-25	52.1	@ NSI Runavik	1	1008	53.76%	Vagur	1	921	22.69%	23.55%
12	2004-09-12	52.1	@ Fuglafjordur	1	798	21.94%	EB-Streymur	1	962	54.66%	23.40%
13	2004-05-20	52.0	@ B36 Torshavn	1	1056	50.35%	NSI Runavik	1	997	25.62%	24.03%
14	2004-08-03	51.9	@ B68 Toftir	1	867	27.01%	KI Klaksvik	1	984	48.78%	24.20%
15	2004-05-20	51.8	@ KI Klaksvik	1	973	44.97%	GI Gota	1	955	30.51%	24.52%
16	2004-06-06	51.8	@ GI Gota	1	938	32.52%	NSI Runavik	1	1010	42.84%	24.64%
17	2004-06-06	51.8	@ KI Klaksvik	1	961	38.70%	Skala IF	1	988	36.56%	24.74%
18	2004-06-13	51.8	@ Vagur	1	959	34.22%	B36 Torshavn	1	1018	41.08%	24.70%
19	2004-06-13	51.8	@ Fuglafjordur	1	823	33.89%	B68 Toftir	1	885	41.42%	24.69%
20	2004-08-29	51.8	@ EB-Streymur	1	963	43.73%	GI Gota	1	954	31.67%	24.59%
21	2004-09-19	51.8	@ GI Gota	1	948	38.60%	Skala IF	1	976	36.66%	24.74%
22	2004-05-02	51.7	@ Fuglafjordur	4	874	25.16%	NSI Runavik	2	1007	50.87%	23.97%
23	2004-05-16	51.4	@ Skala IF	4	927	47.51%	Fuglafjordur	3	890	28.17%	24.33%
24	2004-06-26	51.4	GI Gota	4	906	26.15%	@ Vagur	2	960	49.75%	24.10%
25	2004-10-02	49.9	Vagur	4	936	31.03%	@ GI Gota	2	950	44.41%	24.55%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2004-08-29	26.3	HB Torshavn	5	1128	68.50%	@ B68 Toftir	0	824	11.89%	19.61%
2	2004-08-08	29.4	@ HB Torshavn	3	1102	60.72%	EB-Streymur	0	952	17.18%	22.10%
3	2004-04-25	31.0	@ B36 Torshavn	4	1013	52.23%	EB-Streymur	0	939	23.98%	23.78%
4	2004-08-15	31.4	NSI Runavik	5	995	51.65%	@ B68 Toftir	0	855	24.49%	23.87%
5	2004-06-13	32.0	@ Skala IF	4	988	49.12%	GI Gota	0	939	26.71%	24.17%
6	2004-05-29	32.8	@ HB Torshavn	7	1035	56.92%	B68 Toftir	1	921	20.10%	22.98%
7	2004-10-02	32.9	@ B36 Torshavn	6	1058	68.31%	B68 Toftir	2	827	12.00%	19.69%
8	2004-06-20	33.1	@ B36 Torshavn	4	1018	65.01%	Fuglafjordur	1	823	14.14%	20.85%
9	2004-06-06	33.2	@ EB-Streymur	7	919	50.03%	Fuglafjordur	0	862	25.91%	24.07%
10	2004-08-15	33.4	HB Torshavn	2	1115	54.33%	@ Vagur	0	953	22.21%	23.46%
11	2004-06-28	33.9	B36 Torshavn	2	1026	52.70%	@ B68 Toftir	0	878	23.59%	23.72%
12	2004-05-20	34.2	HB Torshavn	2	1024	51.71%	@ Fuglafjordur	0	884	24.43%	23.86%
13	2004-06-27	34.5	KI Klaksvik	6	962	52.56%	@ Fuglafjordur	1	815	23.70%	23.74%
14	2004-08-29	35.1	@ B36 Torshavn	2	1046	48.81%	Skala IF	0	999	26.99%	24.20%
15	2004-05-16	35.4	B36 Torshavn	3	1034	40.68%	@ GI Gota	0	978	34.61%	24.71%
16	2004-08-15	35.4	@ EB-Streymur	4	940	37.59%	KI Klaksvik	0	975	37.66%	24.75%
17	2004-08-15	35.6	Skala IF	4	983	56.67%	@ Fuglafjordur	1	800	20.30%	23.03%
18	2004-08-04	36.0	@ HB Torshavn	4	1090	55.48%	Skala IF	1	988	21.27%	23.26%
19	2004-09-19	36.0	@ B68 Toftir	2	822	45.69%	Fuglafjordur	0	799	29.84%	24.47%
20	2004-08-22	36.3	@ HB Torshavn	4	1125	76.41%	Fuglafjordur	2	788	7.50%	16.08%
21	2004-09-12	36.7	@ HB Torshavn	1	1141	53.28%	B36 Torshavn	0	1058	23.09%	23.63%
22	2004-06-23	36.8	@ NSI Runavik	2	1016	43.16%	Skala IF	0	1012	32.22%	24.62%
23	2004-08-03	36.9	B36 Torshavn	2	1038	42.75%	@ EB-Streymur	0	966	32.61%	24.64%
24	2004-09-19	37.5	@ B36 Torshavn	3	1052	58.05%	Vagur	1	927	19.21%	22.74%
25	2004-05-20	37.8	Skala IF	4	933	29.73%	@ B68 Toftir	0	957	45.80%	24.46%