2003 1. deild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

HB Torshavn

41 points · 17th Title

Last Title: 2002.0

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

B68 Toftir

6.37 points above expected

35 points · 28.63 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KI Klaksvik

5.85 points below expected

24 points · 29.85 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	HB Torshavn Champion	18	12	5	1	41	41	17	+24	36.99	+4.01
2	B36 Torshavn	18	12	1	5	37	38	20	+18	33.98	+3.02
3	B68 Toftir	18	10	5	3	35	25	14	+11	28.63	+6.37
4	NSI Runavik	18	9	5	4	32	33	18	+15	33.30	-1.30
5	KI Klaksvik	18	7	3	8	24	29	30	-1	29.85	-5.85
6	EB-Streymur	18	6	6	6	24	33	36	-3	17.85	+6.15
7	GI Gota	18	5	5	8	20	25	32	-7	24.74	-4.74
8	Vagur	18	4	4	10	16	16	30	-14	19.96	-3.96
9	Skala IF	18	4	0	14	12	16	39	-23	16.50	-4.50
10	FS Vagar	18	3	2	13	11	25	45	-20	10.65	+0.35

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	B68 Toftir	35	28.63	+6.37
2	EB-Streymur	24	17.85	+6.15
3	HB Torshavn	41	36.99	+4.01
4	B36 Torshavn	37	33.98	+3.02
5	FS Vagar	11	10.65	+0.35

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	KI Klaksvik	24	29.85	-5.85
2	GI Gota	20	24.74	-4.74
3	Skala IF	12	16.50	-4.50
4	Vagur	16	19.96	-3.96
5	NSI Runavik	32	33.30	-1.30

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	B68 Toftir	7	Jul 6 – Sep 15	1 in 141
2	B36 Torshavn	7	Jun 2 – Jul 9	1 in 67
3	Skala IF	3	Sep 21 – Oct 4	1 in 30
4	HB Torshavn	5	Jul 6 – Aug 24	1 in 12
5	EB-Streymur	1	May 25 – May 25	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Skala IF	8	May 16 – Jun 29	1 in 88
2	Vagur	4	May 29 – Jun 22	1 in 37
3	B36 Torshavn	2	May 25 – May 29	1 in 33
4	B68 Toftir	1	Jun 22 – Jun 22	1 in 13
5	NSI Runavik	2	Sep 15 – Sep 21	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	B68 Toftir	9	Jun 29 – Sep 15	1 in 45
2	EB-Streymur	4	Jun 22 – Jul 6	1 in 15
3	GI Gota	5	May 21 – Jun 15	1 in 9
4	HB Torshavn	10	Jul 6 – Oct 4	1 in 9
5	NSI Runavik	7	May 16 – Jun 25	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	GI Gota	7	Jun 25 – Aug 24	1 in 35
2	B36 Torshavn	3	May 16 – May 29	1 in 16
3	B68 Toftir	5	Jun 1 – Jul 2	1 in 14
4	Vagur	6	May 16 – Jun 22	1 in 9
5	Skala IF	8	May 16 – Jun 29	1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
HB Torshavn	1255	41	+33	11	10.3	+0.7
B36 Torshavn	1170	37	+24	12	8.6	+3.4
B68 Toftir	1094	35	-10	9	8.8	+0.2
NSI Runavik	1132	32	-10	7	9.3	-2.3
EB-Streymur	928	24	-5	5	5.7	-0.7
KI Klaksvik	1011	24	-20	4	7.3	-3.3
GI Gota	975	20	+24	7	6.7	+0.3
Vagur	870	16	-41	4	5.1	-1.1
Skala IF	826	12	-7	9	5.3	+3.7
FS Vagar	730	11	+11	3	2.9	+0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BT	BT	EB-	FV	GG	HT	KK	NR	SI	VAG
B36 Torshavn	—	0-0-2 3.56	0-0-2 4.61	2-0-0 4.92	2-0-0 3.95	1-0-1 2.56	2-0-0 3.20	2-0-0 3.02	2-0-0 4.34	1-1-0 4.36
B68 Toftir	2-0-0 2.03	—	1-1-0 3.82	1-0-1 4.80	1-1-0 3.16	0-1-1 1.83	1-1-0 2.67	1-1-0 2.36	2-0-0 3.77	1-0-1 4.13
EB-Streymur	2-0-0 1.02	0-1-1 1.77	—	1-1-0 3.99	1-1-0 1.95	0-1-1 1.06	0-0-2 1.69	0-1-1 1.31	1-0-1 3.46	1-1-0 2.96
FS Vagar	0-0-2 0.76	1-0-1 0.85	0-1-1 1.61	—	0-1-1 1.11	0-0-2 0.65	1-0-1 0.91	0-0-2 0.73	0-0-2 2.23	1-0-1 1.44
GI Gota	0-0-2 1.64	0-1-1 2.42	0-1-1 3.63	1-1-0 4.52	—	0-1-1 1.50	0-0-2 2.31	0-1-1 2.04	2-0-0 3.55	2-0-0 3.44
HB Torshavn	1-0-1 3.02	1-1-0 3.76	1-1-0 4.57	2-0-0 5.03	1-1-0 4.10	—	2-0-0 3.98	1-1-0 3.22	2-0-0 4.62	1-1-0 4.59
KI Klaksvik	0-0-2 2.38	0-1-1 2.91	2-0-0 3.90	1-0-1 4.73	2-0-0 3.26	0-0-2 1.63	—	0-1-1 2.25	2-0-0 4.25	0-1-1 3.90
NSI Runavik	0-0-2 2.56	0-1-1 3.22	1-1-0 4.29	2-0-0 4.94	1-1-0 3.55	0-1-1 2.36	1-1-0 3.33	—	2-0-0 4.08	2-0-0 4.10
Skala IF	0-0-2 1.28	0-0-2 1.83	1-0-1 2.12	2-0-0 3.35	0-0-2 2.04	0-0-2 1.01	0-0-2 1.36	0-0-2 1.52	—	1-0-1 2.16
Vagur	0-1-1 1.27	1-0-1 1.46	0-1-1 2.62	1-0-1 4.17	0-0-2 2.14	0-1-1 1.04	1-1-0 1.69	0-0-2 1.50	1-0-1 3.42	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.65	+10.2
Allowed	0.83	-9.3
Differential	0.98	+6.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.44%	7.22%	7.78%	2.22%	2.22%	1.11%	25.00%
1	7.22%	7.78%	6.11%	3.89%	2.78%	0.56%	28.33%
2	7.78%	6.11%	6.67%	3.89%	1.67%	—	26.11%
3	2.22%	3.89%	3.89%	—	0.56%	—	10.56%
4	2.22%	2.78%	1.67%	0.56%	1.11%	—	8.33%
5+	1.11%	0.56%	—	—	—	—	1.67%
Total	25.00%	28.33%	26.11%	10.56%	8.33%	1.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.56	+0.00
SD	1.37	1.37	2.07
CV	0.88	0.88	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	27.78%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	55.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	1.11	+1.00
SD	1.88	0.90	2.28
CV	0.89	0.81	—
Max	7	3	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
2	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	44.44%	33.33%	22.22%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	0.78	+0.61
SD	1.20	0.81	1.20
CV	0.86	1.04	—
Max	4	2	+2
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	22.22%	—	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	38.89%	16.67%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	2.00	-0.17
SD	1.34	1.50	2.07
CV	0.73	0.75	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	—	44.44%
2	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	11.11%	38.89%	16.67%	27.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	2.50	-1.11
SD	0.98	1.20	1.45
CV	0.70	0.48	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	11.11%	—	33.33%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
3	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	33.33%	16.67%	—	27.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.78	-0.39
SD	1.24	1.56	2.03
CV	0.90	0.87	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	38.89%	27.78%	33.33%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.28	0.94	+1.33
SD	1.23	0.87	1.53
CV	0.54	0.92	—
Max	5	2	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	16.67%	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	44.44%
2	11.11%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	38.89%	11.11%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.67	-0.06
SD	1.65	1.88	2.80
CV	1.02	1.13	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	38.89%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	1.00	+0.83
SD	1.15	0.91	1.72
CV	0.63	0.91	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	27.78%	5.56%	—	5.56%	55.56%
1	5.56%	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	44.44%	22.22%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.89	2.17	-1.28
SD	1.37	1.47	2.08
CV	1.54	0.68	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	44.44%
1	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.89	1.67	-0.78
SD	0.96	1.28	1.59
CV	1.08	0.77	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
HB Torshavn	1255	41	36.99	+4.01	86.0%	25	28	33	38	40	47	49
B36 Torshavn	1170	37	33.98	+3.02	76.0%	19	25	31	33	37	43	46
NSI Runavik	1132	32	33.30	-1.30	45.0%	17	24	30	33	37	42	45
B68 Toftir	1094	35	28.63	+6.37	89.0%	13	20	25	29	32	36	40
KI Klaksvik	1011	24	29.85	-5.85	20.0%	15	20	26	31	34	38	41
GI Gota	975	20	24.74	-4.74	16.0%	11	16	22	25	28	33	40
EB-Streymur	928	24	17.85	+6.15	89.0%	5	10	14	17	22	29	32
Vagur	870	16	19.96	-3.96	26.0%	6	11	16	19	23	30	38
Skala IF	826	12	16.50	-4.50	20.0%	6	10	13	16	19	24	29
FS Vagar	730	11	10.65	+0.35	61.0%	2	5	8	11	13	17	22

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 22% * Strong Edge: 22% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+15.56%

Clear Edge

47.78%20.00%32.22%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 54.49 Elo pts.

201 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.54 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.27+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.22 * Comfortable: 0.22 to 0.38 * Runaway: 0.38 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.1

Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

48%

HB Torshavn, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.22/gm

Comfortable

00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.16 * Some Luck: 4.16 to 6.23 * Lucky: 6.23 to 8.31 * Wild Swing: 8.31 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.92 * Close: 0.92 to 1.37 * Off: 1.37 to 1.83 * Way Off: 1.83 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.45 points

Some Luck

05.1913

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.80

Pinpoint

01.142.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

89.00%

B68 Toftir

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

16.00%

GI Gota

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.45 * Moderate Separation: 1.45 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68.5% * Slight Edge: 68.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 88% * Wide Edge: 88% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 93.5% * Strong Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 44.5% * Some Drama: 44.5% to 50.5% * Frequent: 50.5% to 57% * Very Frequent: 57% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 25% * Frequent: 25% to 33.5% * Very Frequent: 33.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.23

Even

00.190.280.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 165.26

1.85

Strong Separation

0.851.451.82.153.25

Interquartile Edge

80%

Clear Edge

50%68.5%79%88%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

95%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

56%

Frequent

0%53%100%

Blowouts

Expected

18%

Rare

0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.49 * Notable Separation: 0.49 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.4 * Some Carryover: 0.4 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.53

Highly Predictable

00.552

Matchup Imbalance

0.47

Slight Separation

00.390.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.70

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.80

Near-Lock

00.40.610.771

Upset Rate

Expected

17%

As Expected

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

15%

As Expected

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.

Probability calibration

0.60

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.97

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.149

Well Within Noise

00.1710.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
HB Torshavn	48.00%	24.00%	14.00%	8.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
B36 Torshavn	24.00%	22.00%	22.00%	18.00%	9.00%	3.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
B68 Toftir	3.00%	12.00%	16.00%	20.00%	27.00%	10.00%	9.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—
NSI Runavik	17.00%	23.00%	22.00%	16.00%	16.00%	5.00%	—	1.00%	—	—
KI Klaksvik	8.00%	13.00%	18.00%	22.00%	13.00%	18.00%	5.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—
EB-Streymur	—	2.00%	—	3.00%	6.00%	7.00%	20.00%	24.00%	29.00%	9.00%
GI Gota	—	2.00%	7.00%	8.00%	18.00%	39.00%	13.00%	10.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Vagur	—	2.00%	1.00%	4.00%	4.00%	13.00%	32.00%	24.00%	15.00%	5.00%
Skala IF	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	18.00%	30.00%	30.00%	15.00%
FS Vagar	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	9.00%	20.00%	70.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
B36 Torshavn	100%	—	—
B68 Toftir	98.00%	2.00%	—
HB Torshavn	100%	—	—
KI Klaksvik	98.00%	2.00%	—
NSI Runavik	100%	—	—
GI Gota	97.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Vagur	80.00%	15.00%	5.00%
EB-Streymur	62.00%	29.00%	9.00%
Skala IF	55.00%	30.00%	15.00%
FS Vagar	10.00%	20.00%	70.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2003-05-15	KI Klaksvik	L 0-1	39.9	1019	1099	35.77%	21.19%	43.04%	-0.13	-12.1	0
2003-05-15	@ GI Gota	W 1-0	39.9	1099	1019	43.04%	21.19%	35.77%	+0.13	+12.1	3
2003-05-16	B36 Torshavn	D 0-0	49.7	954	1146	22.28%	20.56%	57.16%	-0.69	+2.9	1
2003-05-16	@ Vagur	D 0-0	49.7	1146	954	57.16%	20.56%	22.28%	+0.69	-2.8	1
2003-05-16	B68 Toftir	D 2-2	59.0	858	1014	26.20%	20.85%	52.94%	-0.50	+1.4	1
2003-05-16	@ EB-Streymur	D 2-2	59.0	1014	858	52.94%	20.85%	26.20%	+0.50	-1.4	1
2003-05-16	FS Vagar	W 3-1	30.8	1152	731	80.68%	14.95%	4.37%	+2.36	+2.6	3
2003-05-16	@ HB Torshavn	L 1-3	30.8	731	1152	4.37%	14.95%	80.68%	-2.36	-2.6	0
2003-05-16	Skala IF	W 2-0	31.0	1075	944	61.94%	20.06%	17.99%	+0.92	+12.6	3
2003-05-16	@ NSI Runavik	L 0-2	31.0	944	1075	17.99%	20.06%	61.94%	-0.92	-12.6	0
2003-05-21	Skala IF	W 2-1	40.9	1006	932	56.18%	20.64%	23.19%	+0.64	+7.9	3
2003-05-21	@ GI Gota	L 1-2	40.9	932	1006	23.19%	20.64%	56.18%	-0.64	-7.9	0
2003-05-24	B68 Toftir	L 0-1	39.5	924	1013	34.59%	21.17%	44.25%	-0.17	-11.8	0
2003-05-24	@ Skala IF	W 1-0	39.5	1013	924	44.25%	21.17%	34.59%	+0.17	+11.8	4
2003-05-25	EB-Streymur	L 1-3	52.4	1144	859	73.72%	17.68%	8.61%	+1.68	-37.3	1
2003-05-25	@ B36 Torshavn	W 3-1	52.4	859	1144	8.61%	17.68%	73.72%	-1.68	+37.3	4
2003-05-25	GI Gota	L 1-2	38.0	729	1014	14.46%	19.45%	66.09%	-1.15	-5.1	0
2003-05-25	@ FS Vagar	W 2-1	38.0	1014	729	66.09%	19.45%	14.46%	+1.15	+5.1	6
2003-05-25	HB Torshavn	D 2-2	59.0	1087	1155	37.54%	21.20%	41.26%	-0.06	+0.2	4
2003-05-25	@ NSI Runavik	D 2-2	59.0	1155	1087	41.26%	21.20%	37.54%	+0.06	-0.2	4
2003-05-25	Vagur	D 2-2	59.4	1111	956	64.15%	19.76%	16.08%	+1.04	-2.7	4
2003-05-25	@ KI Klaksvik	D 2-2	59.4	956	1111	16.08%	19.76%	64.15%	-1.04	+2.7	2
2003-05-29	B36 Torshavn	W 1-0	42.2	1024	1106	35.53%	21.18%	43.28%	-0.14	+14.1	7
2003-05-29	@ B68 Toftir	L 0-1	42.2	1106	1024	43.28%	21.18%	35.53%	+0.14	-14.1	1
2003-05-29	FS Vagar	L 2-3	59.7	959	723	70.58%	18.53%	10.89%	+1.44	-19.6	2
2003-05-29	@ Vagur	W 3-2	59.7	723	959	10.89%	18.53%	70.58%	-1.44	+19.6	3
2003-05-29	KI Klaksvik	L 0-1	35.0	897	1108	20.47%	20.38%	59.16%	-0.78	-7.5	4
2003-05-29	@ EB-Streymur	W 1-0	35.0	1108	897	59.16%	20.38%	20.47%	+0.78	+7.5	7
2003-05-29	NSI Runavik	D 1-1	53.5	1020	1087	37.48%	21.20%	41.31%	-0.07	+0.3	7
2003-05-29	@ GI Gota	D 1-1	53.5	1087	1020	41.31%	21.20%	37.48%	+0.07	-0.3	5
2003-05-29	Skala IF	W 3-0	26.0	1155	912	71.05%	18.41%	10.53%	+1.48	+10.9	7
2003-05-29	@ HB Torshavn	L 0-3	26.0	912	1155	10.53%	18.41%	71.05%	-1.48	-10.9	0
2003-06-01	B68 Toftir	D 0-0	49.7	1116	1038	56.44%	20.62%	22.94%	+0.66	-2.7	8
2003-06-01	@ KI Klaksvik	D 0-0	49.7	1038	1116	22.94%	20.62%	56.44%	-0.66	+2.7	8
2003-06-01	EB-Streymur	D 1-1	53.6	743	889	27.35%	20.92%	51.73%	-0.46	+1.7	4
2003-06-01	@ FS Vagar	D 1-1	53.6	889	743	51.73%	20.92%	27.35%	+0.46	-1.7	5
2003-06-01	GI Gota	D 2-2	59.4	1166	1020	63.37%	19.88%	16.75%	+1.00	-2.6	8
2003-06-01	@ HB Torshavn	D 2-2	59.4	1020	1166	16.75%	19.88%	63.37%	-1.00	+2.6	8
2003-06-01	Vagur	W 4-0	27.6	1087	940	63.55%	19.85%	16.60%	+1.00	+22.2	8
2003-06-01	@ NSI Runavik	L 0-4	27.6	940	1087	16.60%	19.85%	63.55%	-1.00	-22.2	2
2003-06-02	B36 Torshavn	L 0-1	35.7	901	1092	22.44%	20.57%	56.99%	-0.68	-8.2	0
2003-06-02	@ Skala IF	W 1-0	35.7	1092	901	56.99%	20.57%	22.44%	+0.68	+8.2	4
2003-06-14	B68 Toftir	D 1-1	53.7	1109	1041	55.43%	20.69%	23.88%	+0.61	-2.3	9
2003-06-14	@ NSI Runavik	D 1-1	53.7	1041	1109	23.88%	20.69%	55.43%	-0.61	+2.3	9
2003-06-15	B36 Torshavn	L 1-4	31.1	745	1100	10.34%	18.35%	71.32%	-1.50	-9.0	4
2003-06-15	@ FS Vagar	W 4-1	31.1	1100	745	71.32%	18.35%	10.34%	+1.50	+9.0	7
2003-06-15	EB-Streymur	W 5-0	25.0	1163	887	73.19%	17.83%	8.98%	+1.64	+15.0	11
2003-06-15	@ HB Torshavn	L 0-5	25.0	887	1163	8.98%	17.83%	73.19%	-1.64	-15.0	5
2003-06-15	KI Klaksvik	L 0-2	31.5	893	1113	19.67%	20.28%	60.04%	-0.82	-13.7	0
2003-06-15	@ Skala IF	W 2-0	31.5	1113	893	60.04%	20.28%	19.67%	+0.82	+13.7	11
2003-06-15	Vagur	W 3-0	29.5	1022	917	59.43%	20.35%	20.23%	+0.79	+20.4	11
2003-06-15	@ GI Gota	L 0-3	29.5	917	1022	20.23%	20.35%	59.43%	-0.79	-20.4	2
2003-06-22	FS Vagar	L 0-1	50.5	1043	736	75.10%	17.23%	7.67%	+1.80	-23.2	9
2003-06-22	@ B68 Toftir	W 1-0	50.5	736	1043	7.67%	17.23%	75.10%	-1.80	+23.2	7
2003-06-22	HB Torshavn	L 2-3	43.3	897	1178	14.80%	19.52%	65.68%	-1.13	-5.0	2
2003-06-22	@ Vagur	W 3-2	43.3	1178	897	65.68%	19.52%	14.80%	+1.13	+5.0	14
2003-06-22	KI Klaksvik	W 7-1	36.5	1109	1127	44.64%	21.16%	34.20%	+0.19	+50.3	10
2003-06-22	@ B36 Torshavn	L 1-7	36.5	1127	1109	34.20%	21.16%	44.64%	-0.19	-50.3	11
2003-06-22	NSI Runavik	D 1-1	53.8	872	1107	18.39%	20.12%	61.49%	-0.90	+3.2	6
2003-06-22	@ EB-Streymur	D 1-1	53.8	1107	872	61.49%	20.12%	18.39%	+0.90	-3.2	10
2003-06-25	GI Gota	W 4-2	51.8	876	1043	24.97%	20.77%	54.26%	-0.56	+25.0	9
2003-06-25	@ EB-Streymur	L 2-4	51.8	1043	876	54.26%	20.77%	24.97%	+0.56	-25.0	11
2003-06-25	NSI Runavik	L 1-3	36.9	879	1104	19.26%	20.23%	60.51%	-0.85	-11.6	0
2003-06-25	@ Skala IF	W 3-1	36.9	1104	879	60.51%	20.23%	19.26%	+0.85	+11.6	13
2003-06-29	FS Vagar	W 2-0	26.9	1076	759	75.64%	17.05%	7.31%	+1.85	+5.2	14
2003-06-29	@ KI Klaksvik	L 0-2	26.9	759	1076	7.31%	17.05%	75.64%	-1.85	-5.2	7
2003-06-29	HB Torshavn	D 1-1	53.6	1020	1183	25.46%	20.81%	53.73%	-0.54	+2.0	10
2003-06-29	@ B68 Toftir	D 1-1	53.6	1183	1020	53.73%	20.81%	25.46%	+0.54	-2.0	15
2003-06-29	NSI Runavik	W 2-0	33.9	1160	1116	52.60%	20.87%	26.53%	+0.49	+17.8	13
2003-06-29	@ B36 Torshavn	L 0-2	33.9	1116	1160	26.53%	20.87%	52.60%	-0.49	-17.8	13
2003-06-29	Skala IF	W 2-0	34.5	892	868	50.15%	20.99%	28.86%	+0.39	+19.1	5
2003-06-29	@ Vagur	L 0-2	34.5	868	892	28.86%	20.99%	50.15%	-0.39	-19.1	0
2003-07-02	B36 Torshavn	L 1-2	48.5	1181	1178	47.41%	21.09%	31.50%	+0.29	-14.3	15
2003-07-02	@ HB Torshavn	W 2-1	48.5	1178	1181	31.50%	21.09%	47.41%	-0.29	+14.3	16
2003-07-02	B68 Toftir	D 0-0	49.5	1018	1022	46.37%	21.12%	32.50%	+0.25	-1.1	12
2003-07-02	@ GI Gota	D 0-0	49.5	1022	1018	32.50%	21.12%	46.37%	-0.25	+1.1	11
2003-07-02	EB-Streymur	D 1-1	53.5	911	901	48.34%	21.06%	30.60%	+0.32	-1.2	6
2003-07-02	@ Vagur	D 1-1	53.5	901	911	30.60%	21.06%	48.34%	-0.32	+1.2	10
2003-07-02	FS Vagar	W 4-1	35.0	848	754	58.33%	20.45%	21.21%	+0.74	+17.9	3
2003-07-02	@ Skala IF	L 1-4	35.0	754	848	21.21%	20.45%	58.33%	-0.74	-17.9	7
2003-07-02	KI Klaksvik	W 4-0	31.9	1098	1081	49.10%	21.04%	29.86%	+0.35	+37.3	16
2003-07-02	@ NSI Runavik	L 0-4	31.9	1081	1098	29.86%	21.04%	49.10%	-0.35	-37.3	14
2003-07-06	GI Gota	W 4-0	26.9	1192	1017	65.95%	19.48%	14.58%	+1.14	+19.7	19
2003-07-06	@ B36 Torshavn	L 0-4	26.9	1017	1192	14.58%	19.48%	65.95%	-1.14	-19.6	12
2003-07-06	HB Torshavn	L 1-2	43.2	1044	1166	30.22%	21.05%	48.73%	-0.34	-9.9	14
2003-07-06	@ KI Klaksvik	W 2-1	43.2	1166	1044	48.73%	21.05%	30.22%	+0.34	+9.9	18
2003-07-06	NSI Runavik	L 1-2	35.6	736	1135	8.35%	17.56%	74.08%	-1.71	-3.0	7
2003-07-06	@ FS Vagar	W 2-1	35.6	1135	736	74.08%	17.56%	8.35%	+1.71	+3.0	19
2003-07-06	Skala IF	W 2-0	34.1	902	866	51.54%	20.93%	27.53%	+0.45	+18.4	13
2003-07-06	@ EB-Streymur	L 0-2	34.1	866	902	27.53%	20.93%	51.54%	-0.45	-18.4	3
2003-07-06	Vagur	W 2-0	31.5	1023	910	60.28%	20.26%	19.46%	+0.84	+13.5	14
2003-07-06	@ B68 Toftir	L 0-2	31.5	910	1023	19.46%	20.26%	60.28%	-0.84	-13.5	6
2003-07-09	EB-Streymur	W 4-2	41.1	1037	920	60.59%	20.22%	19.19%	+0.85	+10.4	17
2003-07-09	@ B68 Toftir	L 2-4	41.1	920	1037	19.19%	20.22%	60.59%	-0.85	-10.4	13
2003-07-09	GI Gota	W 1-0	37.3	1034	997	51.74%	20.92%	27.34%	+0.46	+9.7	17
2003-07-09	@ KI Klaksvik	L 0-1	37.3	997	1034	27.34%	20.92%	51.74%	-0.46	-9.7	12
2003-07-09	HB Torshavn	L 2-3	40.0	733	1176	6.72%	16.71%	76.57%	-1.93	-2.2	7
2003-07-09	@ FS Vagar	W 3-2	40.0	1176	733	76.57%	16.71%	6.72%	+1.93	+2.2	21
2003-07-09	Vagur	W 2-1	35.1	1211	896	75.52%	17.09%	7.39%	+1.84	+2.6	22
2003-07-09	@ B36 Torshavn	L 1-2	35.1	896	1211	7.39%	17.09%	75.52%	-1.84	-2.6	6
2003-08-03	B36 Torshavn	W 3-1	51.1	910	1214	13.24%	19.18%	67.57%	-1.24	+34.4	16
2003-08-03	@ EB-Streymur	L 1-3	51.1	1214	910	67.57%	19.18%	13.24%	+1.24	-34.4	22
2003-08-03	FS Vagar	D 2-2	59.8	987	731	71.99%	18.17%	9.84%	+1.55	-3.6	13
2003-08-03	@ GI Gota	D 2-2	59.8	731	987	9.84%	18.17%	71.99%	-1.55	+3.6	8
2003-08-03	KI Klaksvik	W 1-0	44.7	894	1044	26.86%	20.89%	52.24%	-0.48	+16.5	9
2003-08-03	@ Vagur	L 0-1	44.7	1044	894	52.24%	20.89%	26.86%	+0.48	-16.6	17
2003-08-03	NSI Runavik	W 1-0	37.2	1179	1138	52.17%	20.90%	26.93%	+0.47	+9.5	24
2003-08-03	@ HB Torshavn	L 0-1	37.2	1138	1179	26.93%	20.90%	52.17%	-0.47	-9.6	19
2003-08-03	Skala IF	W 1-0	32.4	1047	848	67.89%	19.12%	12.99%	+1.26	+4.9	20
2003-08-03	@ B68 Toftir	L 0-1	32.4	848	1047	12.99%	19.12%	67.89%	-1.26	-4.9	3
2003-08-10	B68 Toftir	L 0-2	44.1	1180	1052	61.67%	20.10%	18.24%	+0.91	-36.4	22
2003-08-10	@ B36 Torshavn	W 2-0	44.1	1052	1180	18.24%	20.10%	61.67%	-0.91	+36.4	23
2003-08-10	EB-Streymur	W 4-1	35.4	1027	944	57.08%	20.57%	22.35%	+0.68	+18.8	20
2003-08-10	@ KI Klaksvik	L 1-4	35.4	944	1027	22.35%	20.57%	57.08%	-0.68	-18.8	16
2003-08-10	GI Gota	W 1-0	33.8	1128	984	63.28%	19.89%	16.84%	+0.99	+6.3	22
2003-08-10	@ NSI Runavik	L 0-1	33.8	984	1128	16.84%	19.89%	63.28%	-0.99	-6.3	13
2003-08-10	HB Torshavn	L 1-3	33.8	843	1188	10.87%	18.52%	70.61%	-1.45	-6.7	3
2003-08-10	@ Skala IF	W 3-1	33.8	1188	843	70.61%	18.52%	10.87%	+1.45	+6.7	27
2003-08-10	Vagur	L 2-3	46.4	734	910	24.01%	20.70%	55.29%	-0.60	-7.7	8
2003-08-10	@ FS Vagar	W 3-2	46.4	910	734	55.29%	20.70%	24.01%	+0.60	+7.8	12
2003-08-24	FS Vagar	W 4-2	38.9	926	726	67.88%	19.12%	13.00%	+1.26	+7.2	19
2003-08-24	@ EB-Streymur	L 2-4	38.9	726	926	13.00%	19.12%	67.88%	-1.26	-7.2	8
2003-08-24	HB Torshavn	L 0-4	28.7	977	1195	19.91%	20.31%	59.77%	-0.81	-26.2	13
2003-08-24	@ GI Gota	W 4-0	28.7	1195	977	59.77%	20.31%	19.91%	+0.81	+26.2	30
2003-08-24	KI Klaksvik	W 3-1	39.3	1089	1046	52.38%	20.89%	26.74%	+0.48	+15.5	26
2003-08-24	@ B68 Toftir	L 1-3	39.3	1046	1089	26.74%	20.89%	52.38%	-0.48	-15.5	20
2003-08-24	NSI Runavik	L 1-2	39.9	918	1135	19.98%	20.32%	59.70%	-0.81	-6.9	12
2003-08-24	@ Vagur	W 2-1	39.9	1135	918	59.70%	20.32%	19.98%	+0.81	+6.9	25
2003-08-24	Skala IF	W 2-1	35.3	1143	836	75.06%	17.25%	7.70%	+1.80	+2.7	25
2003-08-24	@ B36 Torshavn	L 1-2	35.3	836	1143	7.70%	17.25%	75.06%	-1.80	-2.7	3
2003-08-31	B36 Torshavn	L 1-2	43.5	1031	1146	31.11%	21.08%	47.81%	-0.30	-10.2	20
2003-08-31	@ KI Klaksvik	W 2-1	43.5	1146	1031	47.81%	21.08%	31.11%	+0.30	+10.2	28
2003-08-31	B68 Toftir	L 0-2	27.6	719	1104	8.96%	17.83%	73.21%	-1.64	-6.4	8
2003-08-31	@ FS Vagar	W 2-0	27.6	1104	719	73.21%	17.83%	8.96%	+1.64	+6.4	29
2003-08-31	GI Gota	L 0-2	35.1	834	951	30.82%	21.07%	48.11%	-0.31	-20.2	3
2003-08-31	@ Skala IF	W 2-0	35.1	951	834	48.11%	21.07%	30.82%	+0.31	+20.2	16
2003-08-31	Vagur	D 0-0	50.7	1221	911	75.24%	17.18%	7.57%	+1.81	-5.9	31
2003-08-31	@ HB Torshavn	D 0-0	50.7	911	1221	7.57%	17.18%	75.24%	-1.81	+5.9	13
2003-09-01	EB-Streymur	W 3-0	26.8	1142	933	68.63%	18.97%	12.40%	+1.31	+12.9	28
2003-09-01	@ NSI Runavik	L 0-3	26.8	933	1142	12.40%	18.97%	68.63%	-1.31	-12.9	19
2003-09-14	FS Vagar	W 4-1	28.0	1156	713	81.60%	14.49%	3.91%	+2.47	+3.2	31
2003-09-14	@ B36 Torshavn	L 1-4	28.0	713	1156	3.91%	14.49%	81.60%	-2.47	-3.2	8
2003-09-14	HB Torshavn	D 1-1	54.1	920	1215	13.81%	19.31%	66.88%	-1.20	+4.0	20
2003-09-14	@ EB-Streymur	D 1-1	54.1	1215	920	66.88%	19.31%	13.81%	+1.20	-4.0	32
2003-09-14	Skala IF	W 7-0	27.9	1020	813	68.49%	19.00%	12.51%	+1.30	+28.7	23
2003-09-14	@ KI Klaksvik	L 0-7	27.9	813	1020	12.51%	19.00%	68.49%	-1.30	-28.7	3
2003-09-15	NSI Runavik	W 3-2	50.8	1110	1155	40.89%	21.21%	37.91%	+0.05	+11.3	32
2003-09-15	@ B68 Toftir	L 2-3	50.8	1155	1110	37.91%	21.21%	40.89%	-0.05	-11.3	28
2003-09-21	B36 Torshavn	L 1-2	47.7	1143	1159	44.78%	21.16%	34.06%	+0.19	-13.7	28
2003-09-21	@ NSI Runavik	W 2-1	47.7	1159	1143	34.06%	21.16%	44.78%	-0.19	+13.6	34
2003-09-21	B68 Toftir	W 2-0	32.3	1211	1122	57.78%	20.50%	21.71%	+0.72	+15.0	35
2003-09-21	@ HB Torshavn	L 0-2	32.3	1122	1211	21.71%	20.50%	57.78%	-0.72	-15.0	32
2003-09-21	EB-Streymur	D 4-4	65.4	971	924	52.99%	20.85%	26.15%	+0.51	-1.0	17
2003-09-21	@ GI Gota	D 4-4	65.4	924	971	26.15%	20.85%	52.99%	-0.51	+1.0	21
2003-09-21	KI Klaksvik	W 3-1	51.7	710	1049	11.17%	18.62%	70.21%	-1.42	+35.7	11
2003-09-21	@ FS Vagar	L 1-3	51.7	1049	710	70.21%	18.62%	11.17%	+1.42	-35.7	23
2003-09-21	Vagur	W 1-0	44.1	785	917	29.01%	21.00%	49.99%	-0.39	+15.9	6
2003-09-21	@ Skala IF	L 0-1	44.1	917	785	49.99%	21.00%	29.01%	+0.39	-15.9	13
2003-09-24	GI Gota	L 0-3	34.9	901	970	37.28%	21.20%	41.52%	-0.07	-34.2	13
2003-09-24	@ Vagur	W 3-0	34.9	970	901	41.52%	21.20%	37.28%	+0.07	+34.2	20
2003-09-28	GI Gota	W 2-1	40.1	1107	1005	59.13%	20.38%	20.49%	+0.78	+7.1	35
2003-09-28	@ B68 Toftir	L 1-2	40.1	1005	1107	20.49%	20.38%	59.13%	-0.78	-7.1	20
2003-09-28	HB Torshavn	L 0-2	38.0	1173	1226	39.58%	21.21%	39.21%	+0.01	-24.7	34
2003-09-28	@ B36 Torshavn	W 2-0	38.0	1226	1173	39.21%	21.21%	39.58%	-0.01	+24.7	38
2003-09-28	NSI Runavik	D 2-2	59.0	1014	1130	31.02%	21.08%	47.90%	-0.31	+0.9	24
2003-09-28	@ KI Klaksvik	D 2-2	59.0	1130	1014	47.90%	21.08%	31.02%	+0.31	-0.9	29
2003-09-28	Skala IF	L 3-4	54.2	745	801	39.28%	21.21%	39.51%	+0.00	-11.4	11
2003-09-28	@ FS Vagar	W 4-3	54.2	801	745	39.51%	21.21%	39.28%	+0.00	+11.4	9
2003-09-28	Vagur	W 2-0	33.3	925	867	54.26%	20.77%	24.97%	+0.56	+16.9	24
2003-09-28	@ EB-Streymur	L 0-2	33.3	867	925	24.97%	20.77%	54.26%	-0.56	-16.9	13
2003-10-04	B36 Torshavn	L 1-4	36.8	997	1148	26.79%	20.89%	52.32%	-0.48	-22.0	20
2003-10-04	@ GI Gota	W 4-1	36.8	1148	997	52.32%	20.89%	26.79%	+0.48	+22.0	37
2003-10-04	B68 Toftir	W 1-0	48.0	850	1114	16.03%	19.75%	64.21%	-1.04	+20.1	16
2003-10-04	@ Vagur	L 0-1	48.0	1114	850	64.21%	19.75%	16.03%	+1.04	-20.1	35
2003-10-04	EB-Streymur	W 3-2	54.2	812	942	29.29%	21.01%	49.69%	-0.37	+14.2	12
2003-10-04	@ Skala IF	L 2-3	54.2	942	812	49.69%	21.01%	29.29%	+0.37	-14.2	24
2003-10-04	FS Vagar	W 2-0	25.7	1129	734	79.52%	15.50%	4.99%	+2.23	+3.4	32
2003-10-04	@ NSI Runavik	L 0-2	25.7	734	1129	4.99%	15.50%	79.52%	-2.23	-3.4	11
2003-10-04	KI Klaksvik	W 3-2	41.8	1251	1014	70.63%	18.52%	10.85%	+1.45	+3.7	41
2003-10-04	@ HB Torshavn	L 2-3	41.8	1014	1251	10.85%	18.52%	70.63%	-1.45	-3.7	24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2003-06-22	7.67%	FS Vagar	736	1	@ B68 Toftir	1043	0
2	2003-05-25	8.61%	EB-Streymur	859	3	@ B36 Torshavn	1144	1
3	2003-05-29	10.89%	FS Vagar	723	3	@ Vagur	959	2
4	2003-09-21	11.17%	@ FS Vagar	710	3	KI Klaksvik	1049	1
5	2003-08-03	13.24%	@ EB-Streymur	910	3	B36 Torshavn	1214	1
6	2003-10-04	16.03%	@ Vagur	850	1	B68 Toftir	1114	0
7	2003-08-10	18.24%	B68 Toftir	1052	2	@ B36 Torshavn	1180	0
8	2003-06-25	24.97%	@ EB-Streymur	876	4	GI Gota	1043	2
9	2003-08-03	26.86%	@ Vagur	894	1	KI Klaksvik	1044	0
10	2003-09-21	29.01%	@ Skala IF	785	1	Vagur	917	0
11	2003-10-04	29.29%	@ Skala IF	812	3	EB-Streymur	942	2
12	2003-07-02	31.50%	B36 Torshavn	1178	2	@ HB Torshavn	1181	1
13	2003-09-21	34.06%	B36 Torshavn	1159	2	@ NSI Runavik	1143	1
14	2003-05-29	35.53%	@ B68 Toftir	1024	1	B36 Torshavn	1106	0
15	2003-09-28	39.21%	HB Torshavn	1226	2	@ B36 Torshavn	1173	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2003-06-22	50.34	@ B36 Torshavn	7	1109	44.64%	KI Klaksvik	1	1127	34.20%	21.16%
2	2003-05-25	37.30	EB-Streymur	3	859	8.61%	@ B36 Torshavn	1	1144	73.72%	17.68%
3	2003-07-02	37.29	@ NSI Runavik	4	1098	49.10%	KI Klaksvik	0	1081	29.86%	21.04%
4	2003-08-10	36.42	B68 Toftir	2	1052	18.24%	@ B36 Torshavn	0	1180	61.67%	20.10%
5	2003-09-21	35.69	@ FS Vagar	3	710	11.17%	KI Klaksvik	1	1049	70.21%	18.62%
6	2003-08-03	34.43	@ EB-Streymur	3	910	13.24%	B36 Torshavn	1	1214	67.57%	19.18%
7	2003-09-24	34.19	GI Gota	3	970	41.52%	@ Vagur	0	901	37.28%	21.20%
8	2003-09-14	28.72	@ KI Klaksvik	7	1020	68.49%	Skala IF	0	813	12.51%	19.00%
9	2003-08-24	26.25	HB Torshavn	4	1195	59.77%	@ GI Gota	0	977	19.91%	20.31%
10	2003-06-25	25.02	@ EB-Streymur	4	876	24.97%	GI Gota	2	1043	54.26%	20.77%
11	2003-09-28	24.69	HB Torshavn	2	1226	39.21%	@ B36 Torshavn	0	1173	39.58%	21.21%
12	2003-06-22	23.21	FS Vagar	1	736	7.67%	@ B68 Toftir	0	1043	75.10%	17.23%
13	2003-06-01	22.22	@ NSI Runavik	4	1087	63.55%	Vagur	0	940	16.60%	19.85%
14	2003-10-04	21.97	B36 Torshavn	4	1148	52.32%	@ GI Gota	1	997	26.79%	20.89%
15	2003-06-15	20.38	@ GI Gota	3	1022	59.43%	Vagur	0	917	20.23%	20.35%
16	2003-08-31	20.18	GI Gota	2	951	48.11%	@ Skala IF	0	834	30.82%	21.07%
17	2003-10-04	20.08	@ Vagur	1	850	16.03%	B68 Toftir	0	1114	64.21%	19.75%
18	2003-07-06	19.65	@ B36 Torshavn	4	1192	65.95%	GI Gota	0	1017	14.58%	19.48%
19	2003-05-29	19.64	FS Vagar	3	723	10.89%	@ Vagur	2	959	70.58%	18.53%
20	2003-06-29	19.10	@ Vagur	2	892	50.15%	Skala IF	0	868	28.86%	20.99%
21	2003-08-10	18.79	@ KI Klaksvik	4	1027	57.08%	EB-Streymur	1	944	22.35%	20.57%
22	2003-07-06	18.36	@ EB-Streymur	2	902	51.54%	Skala IF	0	866	27.53%	20.93%
23	2003-07-02	17.93	@ Skala IF	4	848	58.33%	FS Vagar	1	754	21.21%	20.45%
24	2003-06-29	17.80	@ B36 Torshavn	2	1160	52.60%	NSI Runavik	0	1116	26.53%	20.87%
25	2003-09-28	16.89	@ EB-Streymur	2	925	54.26%	Vagur	0	867	24.97%	20.77%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2003-09-21	65.4	@ GI Gota	4	971	52.99%	EB-Streymur	4	924	26.15%	20.85%
2	2003-08-03	59.8	@ GI Gota	2	987	71.99%	FS Vagar	2	731	9.84%	18.17%
3	2003-05-29	59.7	FS Vagar	3	723	10.89%	@ Vagur	2	959	70.58%	18.53%
4	2003-05-25	59.4	@ KI Klaksvik	2	1111	64.15%	Vagur	2	956	16.08%	19.76%
5	2003-06-01	59.4	@ HB Torshavn	2	1166	63.37%	GI Gota	2	1020	16.75%	19.88%
6	2003-05-16	59.0	@ EB-Streymur	2	858	26.20%	B68 Toftir	2	1014	52.94%	20.85%
7	2003-05-25	59.0	@ NSI Runavik	2	1087	37.54%	HB Torshavn	2	1155	41.26%	21.20%
8	2003-09-28	59.0	@ KI Klaksvik	2	1014	31.02%	NSI Runavik	2	1130	47.90%	21.08%
9	2003-09-28	54.2	Skala IF	4	801	39.51%	@ FS Vagar	3	745	39.28%	21.21%
10	2003-10-04	54.2	@ Skala IF	3	812	29.29%	EB-Streymur	2	942	49.69%	21.01%
11	2003-09-14	54.1	@ EB-Streymur	1	920	13.81%	HB Torshavn	1	1215	66.88%	19.31%
12	2003-06-22	53.8	@ EB-Streymur	1	872	18.39%	NSI Runavik	1	1107	61.49%	20.12%
13	2003-06-14	53.7	@ NSI Runavik	1	1109	55.43%	B68 Toftir	1	1041	23.88%	20.69%
14	2003-06-01	53.6	@ FS Vagar	1	743	27.35%	EB-Streymur	1	889	51.73%	20.92%
15	2003-06-29	53.6	@ B68 Toftir	1	1020	25.46%	HB Torshavn	1	1183	53.73%	20.81%
16	2003-05-29	53.5	@ GI Gota	1	1020	37.48%	NSI Runavik	1	1087	41.31%	21.20%
17	2003-07-02	53.5	@ Vagur	1	911	48.34%	EB-Streymur	1	901	30.60%	21.06%
18	2003-05-25	52.4	EB-Streymur	3	859	8.61%	@ B36 Torshavn	1	1144	73.72%	17.68%
19	2003-06-25	51.8	@ EB-Streymur	4	876	24.97%	GI Gota	2	1043	54.26%	20.77%
20	2003-09-21	51.7	@ FS Vagar	3	710	11.17%	KI Klaksvik	1	1049	70.21%	18.62%
21	2003-08-03	51.1	@ EB-Streymur	3	910	13.24%	B36 Torshavn	1	1214	67.57%	19.18%
22	2003-09-15	50.8	@ B68 Toftir	3	1110	40.89%	NSI Runavik	2	1155	37.91%	21.21%
23	2003-08-31	50.7	@ HB Torshavn	0	1221	75.24%	Vagur	0	911	7.57%	17.18%
24	2003-06-22	50.5	FS Vagar	1	736	7.67%	@ B68 Toftir	0	1043	75.10%	17.23%
25	2003-05-16	49.7	@ Vagur	0	954	22.28%	B36 Torshavn	0	1146	57.16%	20.56%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2003-06-15	25.0	@ HB Torshavn	5	1163	73.19%	EB-Streymur	0	887	8.98%	17.83%
2	2003-10-04	25.7	@ NSI Runavik	2	1129	79.52%	FS Vagar	0	734	4.99%	15.50%
3	2003-05-29	26.0	@ HB Torshavn	3	1155	71.05%	Skala IF	0	912	10.53%	18.41%
4	2003-09-01	26.8	@ NSI Runavik	3	1142	68.63%	EB-Streymur	0	933	12.40%	18.97%
5	2003-06-29	26.9	@ KI Klaksvik	2	1076	75.64%	FS Vagar	0	759	7.31%	17.05%
6	2003-07-06	26.9	@ B36 Torshavn	4	1192	65.95%	GI Gota	0	1017	14.58%	19.48%
7	2003-06-01	27.6	@ NSI Runavik	4	1087	63.55%	Vagur	0	940	16.60%	19.85%
8	2003-08-31	27.6	B68 Toftir	2	1104	73.21%	@ FS Vagar	0	719	8.96%	17.83%
9	2003-09-14	27.9	@ KI Klaksvik	7	1020	68.49%	Skala IF	0	813	12.51%	19.00%
10	2003-09-14	28.0	@ B36 Torshavn	4	1156	81.60%	FS Vagar	1	713	3.91%	14.49%
11	2003-08-24	28.7	HB Torshavn	4	1195	59.77%	@ GI Gota	0	977	19.91%	20.31%
12	2003-06-15	29.5	@ GI Gota	3	1022	59.43%	Vagur	0	917	20.23%	20.35%
13	2003-05-16	30.8	@ HB Torshavn	3	1152	80.68%	FS Vagar	1	731	4.37%	14.95%
14	2003-05-16	31.0	@ NSI Runavik	2	1075	61.94%	Skala IF	0	944	17.99%	20.06%
15	2003-06-15	31.1	B36 Torshavn	4	1100	71.32%	@ FS Vagar	1	745	10.34%	18.35%
16	2003-06-15	31.5	KI Klaksvik	2	1113	60.04%	@ Skala IF	0	893	19.67%	20.28%
17	2003-07-06	31.5	@ B68 Toftir	2	1023	60.28%	Vagur	0	910	19.46%	20.26%
18	2003-07-02	31.9	@ NSI Runavik	4	1098	49.10%	KI Klaksvik	0	1081	29.86%	21.04%
19	2003-09-21	32.3	@ HB Torshavn	2	1211	57.78%	B68 Toftir	0	1122	21.71%	20.50%
20	2003-08-03	32.4	@ B68 Toftir	1	1047	67.89%	Skala IF	0	848	12.99%	19.12%
21	2003-09-28	33.3	@ EB-Streymur	2	925	54.26%	Vagur	0	867	24.97%	20.77%
22	2003-08-10	33.8	@ NSI Runavik	1	1128	63.28%	GI Gota	0	984	16.84%	19.89%
23	2003-08-10	33.8	HB Torshavn	3	1188	70.61%	@ Skala IF	1	843	10.87%	18.52%
24	2003-06-29	33.9	@ B36 Torshavn	2	1160	52.60%	NSI Runavik	0	1116	26.53%	20.87%
25	2003-07-06	34.1	@ EB-Streymur	2	902	51.54%	Skala IF	0	866	27.53%	20.93%