Home / Leagues / Finland / Mestaruussarja / 1930
›

1930 Mestaruussarja Season

28 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Helsingfors

12 points · 1st Title

Last Title: 2004

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

TPS Turku

3.46 points above expected

12 points · 8.54 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Turku

3.63 points below expected

1 points · 4.63 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Helsingfors Champion 7 5 2 0 12 22 7 +15 8.58 +3.42
2 TPS Turku 7 5 2 0 12 25 12 +13 8.54 +3.46
3 HPS Helsinki 7 4 1 2 9 26 17 +9 8.65 +0.35
4 ViPS Viipuri 7 3 1 3 7 20 16 +4 7.74 -0.74
5 VPS 7 2 3 2 7 23 27 -4 6.84 +0.16
6 Kiffen 08 7 2 2 3 6 17 18 -1 6.35 -0.35
7 Makkabi Helsinki 7 0 2 5 2 9 35 -26 4.67 -2.67
8 Turku 7 0 1 6 1 9 19 -10 4.63 -3.63

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 TPS Turku 12 8.54 +3.46
2 Helsingfors 12 8.58 +3.42
3 HPS Helsinki 9 8.65 +0.35
4 VPS 7 6.84 +0.16
5 Kiffen 08 6 6.35 -0.35

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Turku 1 4.63 -3.63
2 Makkabi Helsinki 2 4.67 -2.67
3 ViPS Viipuri 7 7.74 -0.74
4 Kiffen 08 6 6.35 -0.35
5 VPS 7 6.84 +0.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Helsingfors 3 Sep 7 – Oct 5 1 in 19
2 HPS Helsinki 4 Aug 10 – Aug 28 1 in 12
3 ViPS Viipuri 2 Aug 10 – Aug 17 1 in 6
4 Kiffen 08 2 Aug 31 – Sep 3 1 in 4
5 VPS 1 Sep 7 – Sep 7 51%

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 ViPS Viipuri 3 Sep 7 – Sep 28 1 in 56
2 HPS Helsinki 2 Sep 7 – Sep 14 1 in 12
3 Turku 4 Aug 27 – Oct 5 1 in 9
4 VPS 2 Aug 17 – Aug 24 1 in 5
5 Makkabi Helsinki 3 Aug 10 – Aug 21 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 VPS 4 Aug 31 – Sep 28 1 in 12
2 Helsingfors 7 Aug 10 – Oct 5 1 in 11
3 TPS Turku 7 Aug 10 – Sep 14 1 in 10
4 HPS Helsinki 5 Aug 10 – Aug 31 1 in 4
5 ViPS Viipuri 3 Aug 10 – Aug 31 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 ViPS Viipuri 4 Aug 31 – Sep 28 1 in 12
2 VPS 4 Aug 10 – Aug 31 1 in 7
3 Turku 7 Aug 10 – Oct 5 1 in 6
4 Makkabi Helsinki 7 Aug 10 – Oct 5 1 in 5
5 HPS Helsinki 3 Aug 31 – Sep 14 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
TPS Turku 1564 12 +186 9 6.3 +2.7
Helsingfors 1566 12 +239 9 6.3 +2.7
HPS Helsinki 1370 9 -138 5 6.3 -1.3
VPS 1128 7 +154 6 3.9 +2.1
ViPS Viipuri 1297 7 -164 3 6.0 -3.0
Kiffen 08 1203 6 +11 5 5.0 +0.0
Makkabi Helsinki 782 2 -190 2 3.2 -1.2
Turku 895 1 -97 1 3.0 -2.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team HH HEL K0 MH TT TUR VPS VV
HPS Helsinki —
0-0-1
2.09
1-0-0
2.43
1-0-0
2.49
0-0-1
0.59
1-0-0
1.74
1-0-0
1.16
0-1-0
1.22
Helsingfors
1-0-0
0.66
 —
1-0-0
2.11
1-0-0
2.17
0-1-0
1.80
1-0-0
2.47
0-1-0
1.00
1-0-0
1.84
Kiffen 08
0-0-1
0.33
0-0-1
0.63
 —
1-0-0
2.21
0-1-0
0.98
1-0-0
1.47
0-1-0
2.23
0-0-1
1.00
Makkabi Helsinki
0-0-1
0.28
0-0-1
0.58
0-0-1
0.54
 —
0-0-1
1.00
0-1-0
1.65
0-1-0
0.97
0-0-1
0.75
TPS Turku
1-0-0
2.16
0-1-0
0.95
0-1-0
1.77
1-0-0
1.74
 —
1-0-0
2.42
1-0-0
2.43
1-0-0
0.81
Turku
0-0-1
1.00
0-0-1
0.29
0-0-1
1.27
0-1-0
1.10
0-0-1
0.34
 —
0-0-1
0.95
0-0-1
1.45
VPS
0-0-1
1.59
0-1-0
1.74
0-1-0
0.52
0-1-0
1.77
0-0-1
0.33
1-0-0
1.80
 —
1-0-0
0.80
ViPS Viipuri
0-1-0
1.53
0-0-1
0.90
1-0-0
1.74
1-0-0
2.00
0-0-1
1.94
1-0-0
1.29
0-0-1
1.95
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.80 +5.4
Allowed 0.52 -3.4
Differential 0.82 +2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%——5.36%1.79%10.71%
13.57%7.14%5.36%1.79%—1.79%19.64%
2—5.36%3.57%5.36%—7.14%21.43%
3—1.79%5.36%7.14%1.79%3.57%19.64%
45.36%——1.79%7.14%—14.29%
5+1.79%1.79%7.14%3.57%——14.29%
Total10.71%19.64%21.43%19.64%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.70 2.70 +0.00
SD 2.04 2.04 3.07
CV 0.76 0.76 —
Max 9 9 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1———14.29%——14.29%
2—14.29%—14.29%——28.57%
3——14.29%———14.29%
4————14.29%—14.29%
5+——28.57%———28.57%
Total—14.29%42.86%28.57%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.71 2.43 +1.29
SD 2.69 0.98 2.98
CV 0.72 0.40 —
Max 9 4 +7
Min 1 1 -2

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—14.29%————14.29%
2—28.57%14.29%———42.86%
3—14.29%————14.29%
414.29%—————14.29%
5+—14.29%————14.29%
Total14.29%71.43%14.29%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.14 1.00 +2.14
SD 2.34 0.58 2.54
CV 0.74 0.58 —
Max 8 2 +7
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%——14.29%—28.57%
1———————
2———14.29%——14.29%
3———14.29%——14.29%
414.29%——14.29%14.29%—42.86%
5+———————
Total14.29%14.29%—42.86%28.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 2.57 -0.14
SD 1.81 1.51 2.41
CV 0.75 0.59 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————14.29%14.29%28.57%
1—14.29%———14.29%28.57%
2—————28.57%28.57%
3———14.29%——14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total—14.29%—14.29%14.29%57.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 5.00 -3.71
SD 1.11 2.77 2.93
CV 0.87 0.55 —
Max 3 9 +0
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
114.29%14.29%————28.57%
2———————
3——28.57%14.29%——42.86%
4———————
5+——28.57%———28.57%
Total14.29%14.29%57.14%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.57 1.71 +1.86
SD 2.76 0.95 2.48
CV 0.77 0.55 —
Max 9 3 +7
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%——14.29%—28.57%
1—14.29%28.57%———42.86%
2———————
3————14.29%14.29%28.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total—28.57%28.57%—28.57%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 2.71 -1.43
SD 1.25 1.60 1.27
CV 0.97 0.59 —
Max 3 5 +0
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1———————
2——14.29%14.29%—14.29%42.86%
3———14.29%——14.29%
4————14.29%—14.29%
5+———28.57%——28.57%
Total——14.29%57.14%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.29 3.86 -0.57
SD 1.38 2.34 3.05
CV 0.42 0.61 —
Max 5 9 +2
Min 2 2 -7

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
114.29%—14.29%———28.57%
2—————14.29%14.29%
3—————14.29%14.29%
414.29%———14.29%—28.57%
5+14.29%—————14.29%
Total42.86%—14.29%—14.29%28.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 2.29 +0.57
SD 1.57 2.36 2.99
CV 0.55 1.03 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 7

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Helsingfors 1686 12 8.58 +3.42 98.0% 3 6 7 9 10 11 13
TPS Turku 1444 12 8.54 +3.46 98.0% 4 6 7 8 10 12 14
HPS Helsinki 1370 9 8.65 +0.35 68.0% 5 6 7 8 10 11 13
ViPS Viipuri 1297 7 7.74 -0.74 40.0% 1 4 6 8 9 11 12
Kiffen 08 1203 6 6.35 -0.35 52.0% 1 3 5 6 8 10 12
VPS 1128 7 6.84 +0.16 64.0% 1 4 6 7 8 10 12
Turku 895 1 4.63 -3.63 6.0% 0 1 3 4 6 8 10
Makkabi Helsinki 782 2 4.67 -2.67 17.0% 0 1 3 4 6 9 11

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.86%
Clear Edge
46.43%25.00%28.57%
Elo Value
Home Edge
226 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
062.71600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.39 goals
Neutral
-2+0.28+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.5
Open
13458
Champion Preseason Odds
25%
Helsingfors, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 1.63 * Some Luck: 1.63 to 2.45 * Lucky: 2.45 to 3.27 * Wild Swing: 3.27 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.25 * Close: 1.25 to 1.88 * Off: 1.88 to 2.5 * Way Off: 2.5 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.37 points
Some Luck
02.045
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Pinpoint
01.564
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
98.00%
Helsingfors
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
6.00%
Turku
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.30
Lopsided
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 286.17
1.78
Strong Separation
0.951.41.71.92.5
Interquartile Edge
88%
Wide Edge
50%62.5%70%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Some Drama
0%37%100%
Blowouts
Expected
32%
Very Frequent
0%42%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Lopsided
00.330.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.42
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
N/A
No prior ratings
00.210.460.591
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Chalky
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Solid Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.26 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.26 to 0.39 * Above Noise: 0.39 to 0.52 * Well Above Noise: 0.52 and up.
Probability calibration
0.86
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.12
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.204
Well Within Noise
00.2580.6

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Helsingfors 4
TPS Turku 1

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Helsingfors25.00%27.00%17.00%13.00%7.00%7.00%3.00%1.00%
TPS Turku28.00%19.00%23.00%10.00%11.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%
HPS Helsinki25.00%20.00%17.00%20.00%14.00%4.00%——
ViPS Viipuri13.00%18.00%13.00%20.00%15.00%9.00%8.00%4.00%
VPS5.00%7.00%10.00%14.00%19.00%28.00%11.00%6.00%
Kiffen 083.00%7.00%11.00%16.00%12.00%21.00%19.00%11.00%
Makkabi Helsinki1.00%—5.00%3.00%9.00%11.00%26.00%45.00%
Turku—2.00%4.00%4.00%13.00%15.00%30.00%32.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
HPS Helsinki 100% —
Helsingfors 96.00% 4.00%
TPS Turku 96.00% 4.00%
ViPS Viipuri 88.00% 12.00%
VPS 83.00% 17.00%
Kiffen 08 70.00% 30.00%
Turku 38.00% 62.00%
Makkabi Helsinki 29.00% 71.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1930-08-10 Turku W 2-140.0 1226 1226 49.53% 25.58% 24.89%+0.28 +36.2 2
1930-08-10 @ HPS Helsinki L 1-240.0 1226 1226 24.89% 25.58% 49.53%-0.28 -36.2 0
1930-08-10 Makkabi Helsinki W 9-236.2 1226 1226 49.53% 25.58% 24.89%+0.28 +157.6 2
1930-08-10 @ TPS Turku L 2-936.2 1226 1226 24.89% 25.58% 49.53%-0.28 -157.6 0
1930-08-10 Kiffen 08 W 1-037.4 1226 1226 49.53% 25.58% 24.89%+0.28 +38.4 2
1930-08-10 @ ViPS Viipuri L 0-137.4 1226 1226 24.89% 25.58% 49.53%-0.28 -38.4 0
1930-08-10 Helsingfors D 2-251.8 1226 1226 49.53% 25.58% 24.89%+0.28 -5.3 1
1930-08-10 @ VPS D 2-251.8 1226 1226 24.89% 25.58% 49.53%-0.28 +5.3 1
1930-08-13 Makkabi Helsinki W 8-129.7 1231 1068 63.82% 25.26% 10.92%+1.00 +96.7 3
1930-08-13 @ Helsingfors L 1-829.7 1068 1231 10.92% 25.26% 63.82%-1.00 -96.7 0
1930-08-17 TPS Turku D 3-355.9 1187 1383 24.03% 25.49% 50.48%-0.59 +4.8 1
1930-08-17 @ Kiffen 08 D 3-355.9 1383 1187 50.48% 25.49% 24.03%+0.59 -4.8 3
1930-08-17 ViPS Viipuri L 0-436.3 1189 1264 39.94% 25.61% 34.45%-0.05 -197.4 0
1930-08-17 @ Turku W 4-036.3 1264 1189 34.45% 25.61% 39.94%+0.05 +197.4 4
1930-08-17 HPS Helsinki L 2-942.1 1220 1262 44.41% 25.60% 29.99%+0.09 -246.3 1
1930-08-17 @ VPS W 9-242.1 1262 1220 29.99% 25.60% 44.41%-0.09 +246.3 4
1930-08-20 Kiffen 08 W 4-028.3 1328 1192 62.04% 25.34% 12.62%+0.88 +78.6 5
1930-08-20 @ Helsingfors L 0-428.3 1192 1328 12.62% 25.34% 62.04%-0.88 -78.7 1
1930-08-21 Makkabi Helsinki W 5-232.7 1508 971 75.28% 23.31% 1.41%+2.65 +5.4 6
1930-08-21 @ HPS Helsinki L 2-532.7 971 1508 1.41% 23.31% 75.28%-2.65 -5.4 0
1930-08-24 Turku D 1-148.4 966 992 46.38% 25.60% 28.02%+0.16 -5.2 1
1930-08-24 @ Makkabi Helsinki D 1-148.4 992 966 28.02% 25.60% 46.38%-0.16 +5.2 1
1930-08-24 VPS W 3-236.3 1378 974 72.91% 24.18% 2.91%+2.07 +5.0 5
1930-08-24 @ TPS Turku L 2-336.3 974 1378 2.91% 24.18% 72.91%-2.07 -5.0 1
1930-08-27 Turku W 1-030.4 1383 997 72.50% 24.29% 3.22%+1.99 +6.2 7
1930-08-27 @ TPS Turku L 0-130.4 997 1383 3.22% 24.29% 72.50%-1.99 -6.2 1
1930-08-28 Kiffen 08 W 3-237.3 1514 1113 72.82% 24.21% 2.98%+2.05 +5.1 8
1930-08-28 @ HPS Helsinki L 2-337.3 1113 1514 2.98% 24.21% 72.82%-2.05 -5.1 1
1930-08-31 TPS Turku D 1-152.0 1406 1390 51.42% 25.56% 23.01%+0.35 -8.3 6
1930-08-31 @ Helsingfors D 1-152.0 1390 1406 23.01% 25.56% 51.42%-0.35 +8.3 8
1930-08-31 Kiffen 08 L 3-449.5 991 1108 33.95% 25.59% 40.47%-0.24 -42.6 1
1930-08-31 @ Turku W 4-349.5 1108 991 40.47% 25.59% 33.95%+0.24 +42.6 3
1930-08-31 HPS Helsinki D 4-467.8 1461 1519 42.33% 25.61% 32.06%+0.02 -1.5 5
1930-08-31 @ ViPS Viipuri D 4-467.8 1519 1461 32.06% 25.61% 42.33%-0.02 +1.5 9
1930-08-31 Makkabi Helsinki D 3-355.2 969 961 50.48% 25.57% 23.95%+0.31 -4.8 2
1930-08-31 @ VPS D 3-355.2 961 969 23.95% 25.57% 50.48%-0.31 +4.8 2
1930-09-03 Makkabi Helsinki W 4-026.8 1151 966 65.12% 25.19% 9.68%+1.10 +62.4 5
1930-09-03 @ Kiffen 08 L 0-426.8 966 1151 9.68% 25.19% 65.12%-1.10 -62.4 2
1930-09-07 Helsingfors L 1-355.8 1520 1398 61.08% 25.38% 13.55%+0.82 -132.5 9
1930-09-07 @ HPS Helsinki W 3-155.8 1398 1520 13.55% 25.38% 61.08%-0.82 +132.5 8
1930-09-07 TPS Turku L 2-554.5 1460 1398 56.04% 25.50% 18.46%+0.55 -148.5 5
1930-09-07 @ ViPS Viipuri W 5-254.5 1398 1460 18.46% 25.50% 56.04%-0.55 +148.5 10
1930-09-07 Turku W 5-344.5 964 948 51.32% 25.56% 23.12%+0.35 +50.1 4
1930-09-07 @ VPS L 3-544.5 948 964 23.12% 25.56% 51.32%-0.35 -50.1 1
1930-09-14 VPS D 4-458.7 1213 1014 65.86% 25.15% 8.99%+1.16 -10.1 6
1930-09-14 @ Kiffen 08 D 4-458.7 1014 1213 8.99% 25.15% 65.86%-1.16 +10.1 5
1930-09-14 HPS Helsinki W 3-246.5 1546 1388 63.56% 25.28% 11.16%+0.98 +17.7 12
1930-09-14 @ TPS Turku L 2-346.5 1388 1546 11.16% 25.28% 63.56%-0.98 -17.7 9
1930-09-14 Helsingfors L 1-243.3 1311 1531 21.53% 25.44% 53.02%-0.69 -32.3 5
1930-09-14 @ ViPS Viipuri W 2-143.3 1531 1311 53.02% 25.44% 21.53%+0.69 +32.2 10
1930-09-28 ViPS Viipuri W 5-354.6 1024 1279 18.08% 25.36% 56.56%-0.85 +103.3 7
1930-09-28 @ VPS L 3-554.6 1279 1024 56.56% 25.36% 18.08%+0.85 -103.3 5
1930-10-05 ViPS Viipuri L 0-528.2 903 1176 16.52% 25.31% 58.17%-0.93 -121.4 2
1930-10-05 @ Makkabi Helsinki W 5-028.2 1176 903 58.17% 25.31% 16.52%+0.93 +121.4 7
1930-10-05 Helsingfors L 1-232.4 898 1563 1.99% 23.30% 74.71%-2.66 -3.6 1
1930-10-05 @ Turku W 2-132.4 1563 898 74.71% 23.30% 1.99%+2.66 +3.6 12

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1930-10-12 TPS Turku W 4-154.5 1566 1564 37.51% 25.61% 36.88%+0.01 +119.9 1-0
1930-10-12 @ Helsingfors L 1-454.5 1564 1566 36.88% 25.61% 37.51%-0.01 -119.9 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1930-09-07 13.55% Helsingfors 1398 3 @ HPS Helsinki 1520 1
2 1930-09-28 18.08% @ VPS 1024 5 ViPS Viipuri 1279 3
3 1930-09-07 18.46% TPS Turku 1398 5 @ ViPS Viipuri 1460 2
4 1930-08-17 29.99% HPS Helsinki 1262 9 @ VPS 1220 2
5 1930-08-17 34.45% ViPS Viipuri 1264 4 @ Turku 1189 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1930-08-17 246.30 HPS Helsinki 9 1262 29.99% @ VPS 2 1220 44.41% 25.60%
2 1930-08-17 197.37 ViPS Viipuri 4 1264 34.45% @ Turku 0 1189 39.94% 25.61%
3 1930-08-10 157.57 @ TPS Turku 9 1226 49.53% Makkabi Helsinki 2 1226 24.89% 25.58%
4 1930-09-07 148.51 TPS Turku 5 1398 18.46% @ ViPS Viipuri 2 1460 56.04% 25.50%
5 1930-09-07 132.51 Helsingfors 3 1398 13.55% @ HPS Helsinki 1 1520 61.08% 25.38%
6 1930-10-05 121.38 ViPS Viipuri 5 1176 58.17% @ Makkabi Helsinki 0 903 16.52% 25.31%
7 1930-10-12 * 119.92 @ Helsingfors 4 1566 37.51% TPS Turku 1 1564 36.88% 25.61%
8 1930-09-28 103.29 @ VPS 5 1024 18.08% ViPS Viipuri 3 1279 56.56% 25.36%
9 1930-08-13 96.74 @ Helsingfors 8 1231 63.82% Makkabi Helsinki 1 1068 10.92% 25.26%
10 1930-08-20 78.65 @ Helsingfors 4 1328 62.04% Kiffen 08 0 1192 12.62% 25.34%
11 1930-09-03 62.40 @ Kiffen 08 4 1151 65.12% Makkabi Helsinki 0 966 9.68% 25.19%
12 1930-09-07 50.06 @ VPS 5 964 51.32% Turku 3 948 23.12% 25.56%
13 1930-08-31 42.59 Kiffen 08 4 1108 40.47% @ Turku 3 991 33.95% 25.59%
14 1930-08-10 38.44 @ ViPS Viipuri 1 1226 49.53% Kiffen 08 0 1226 24.89% 25.58%
15 1930-08-10 36.24 @ HPS Helsinki 2 1226 49.53% Turku 1 1226 24.89% 25.58%
16 1930-09-14 32.26 Helsingfors 2 1531 53.02% @ ViPS Viipuri 1 1311 21.53% 25.44%
17 1930-09-14 17.69 @ TPS Turku 3 1546 63.56% HPS Helsinki 2 1388 11.16% 25.28%
18 1930-09-14 10.06 @ Kiffen 08 4 1213 65.86% VPS 4 1014 8.99% 25.15%
19 1930-08-31 8.33 TPS Turku 1 1390 23.01% @ Helsingfors 1 1406 51.42% 25.56%
20 1930-08-27 6.19 @ TPS Turku 1 1383 72.50% Turku 0 997 3.22% 24.29%
21 1930-08-21 5.39 @ HPS Helsinki 5 1508 75.28% Makkabi Helsinki 2 971 1.41% 23.31%
22 1930-08-10 5.32 Helsingfors 2 1226 24.89% @ VPS 2 1226 49.53% 25.58%
23 1930-08-24 5.22 @ Makkabi Helsinki 1 966 46.38% Turku 1 992 28.02% 25.60%
24 1930-08-28 5.14 @ HPS Helsinki 3 1514 72.82% Kiffen 08 2 1113 2.98% 24.21%
25 1930-08-24 5.02 @ TPS Turku 3 1378 72.91% VPS 2 974 2.91% 24.18%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1930-08-31 67.8 @ ViPS Viipuri 4 1461 42.33% HPS Helsinki 4 1519 32.06% 25.61%
2 1930-09-14 58.7 @ Kiffen 08 4 1213 65.86% VPS 4 1014 8.99% 25.15%
3 1930-08-17 55.9 @ Kiffen 08 3 1187 24.03% TPS Turku 3 1383 50.48% 25.49%
4 1930-09-07 55.8 Helsingfors 3 1398 13.55% @ HPS Helsinki 1 1520 61.08% 25.38%
5 1930-08-31 55.2 @ VPS 3 969 50.48% Makkabi Helsinki 3 961 23.95% 25.57%
6 1930-09-28 54.6 @ VPS 5 1024 18.08% ViPS Viipuri 3 1279 56.56% 25.36%
7 1930-09-07 54.5 TPS Turku 5 1398 18.46% @ ViPS Viipuri 2 1460 56.04% 25.50%
8 1930-10-12 * 54.5 @ Helsingfors 4 1566 37.51% TPS Turku 1 1564 36.88% 25.61%
9 1930-08-31 52.0 @ Helsingfors 1 1406 51.42% TPS Turku 1 1390 23.01% 25.56%
10 1930-08-10 51.8 @ VPS 2 1226 49.53% Helsingfors 2 1226 24.89% 25.58%
11 1930-08-31 49.5 Kiffen 08 4 1108 40.47% @ Turku 3 991 33.95% 25.59%
12 1930-08-24 48.4 @ Makkabi Helsinki 1 966 46.38% Turku 1 992 28.02% 25.60%
13 1930-09-14 46.5 @ TPS Turku 3 1546 63.56% HPS Helsinki 2 1388 11.16% 25.28%
14 1930-09-07 44.5 @ VPS 5 964 51.32% Turku 3 948 23.12% 25.56%
15 1930-09-14 43.3 Helsingfors 2 1531 53.02% @ ViPS Viipuri 1 1311 21.53% 25.44%
16 1930-08-17 42.1 HPS Helsinki 9 1262 29.99% @ VPS 2 1220 44.41% 25.60%
17 1930-08-10 40.0 @ HPS Helsinki 2 1226 49.53% Turku 1 1226 24.89% 25.58%
18 1930-08-10 37.4 @ ViPS Viipuri 1 1226 49.53% Kiffen 08 0 1226 24.89% 25.58%
19 1930-08-28 37.3 @ HPS Helsinki 3 1514 72.82% Kiffen 08 2 1113 2.98% 24.21%
20 1930-08-17 36.3 ViPS Viipuri 4 1264 34.45% @ Turku 0 1189 39.94% 25.61%
21 1930-08-24 36.3 @ TPS Turku 3 1378 72.91% VPS 2 974 2.91% 24.18%
22 1930-08-10 36.2 @ TPS Turku 9 1226 49.53% Makkabi Helsinki 2 1226 24.89% 25.58%
23 1930-08-21 32.7 @ HPS Helsinki 5 1508 75.28% Makkabi Helsinki 2 971 1.41% 23.31%
24 1930-10-05 32.4 Helsingfors 2 1563 74.71% @ Turku 1 898 1.99% 23.30%
25 1930-08-27 30.4 @ TPS Turku 1 1383 72.50% Turku 0 997 3.22% 24.29%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1930-09-03 26.8 @ Kiffen 08 4 1151 65.12% Makkabi Helsinki 0 966 9.68% 25.19%
2 1930-10-05 28.2 ViPS Viipuri 5 1176 58.17% @ Makkabi Helsinki 0 903 16.52% 25.31%
3 1930-08-20 28.3 @ Helsingfors 4 1328 62.04% Kiffen 08 0 1192 12.62% 25.34%
4 1930-08-13 29.7 @ Helsingfors 8 1231 63.82% Makkabi Helsinki 1 1068 10.92% 25.26%
5 1930-08-27 30.4 @ TPS Turku 1 1383 72.50% Turku 0 997 3.22% 24.29%
6 1930-10-05 32.4 Helsingfors 2 1563 74.71% @ Turku 1 898 1.99% 23.30%
7 1930-08-21 32.7 @ HPS Helsinki 5 1508 75.28% Makkabi Helsinki 2 971 1.41% 23.31%
8 1930-08-10 36.2 @ TPS Turku 9 1226 49.53% Makkabi Helsinki 2 1226 24.89% 25.58%
9 1930-08-17 36.3 ViPS Viipuri 4 1264 34.45% @ Turku 0 1189 39.94% 25.61%
10 1930-08-24 36.3 @ TPS Turku 3 1378 72.91% VPS 2 974 2.91% 24.18%
11 1930-08-28 37.3 @ HPS Helsinki 3 1514 72.82% Kiffen 08 2 1113 2.98% 24.21%
12 1930-08-10 37.4 @ ViPS Viipuri 1 1226 49.53% Kiffen 08 0 1226 24.89% 25.58%
13 1930-08-10 40.0 @ HPS Helsinki 2 1226 49.53% Turku 1 1226 24.89% 25.58%
14 1930-08-17 42.1 HPS Helsinki 9 1262 29.99% @ VPS 2 1220 44.41% 25.60%
15 1930-09-14 43.3 Helsingfors 2 1531 53.02% @ ViPS Viipuri 1 1311 21.53% 25.44%
16 1930-09-07 44.5 @ VPS 5 964 51.32% Turku 3 948 23.12% 25.56%
17 1930-09-14 46.5 @ TPS Turku 3 1546 63.56% HPS Helsinki 2 1388 11.16% 25.28%
18 1930-08-24 48.4 @ Makkabi Helsinki 1 966 46.38% Turku 1 992 28.02% 25.60%
19 1930-08-31 49.5 Kiffen 08 4 1108 40.47% @ Turku 3 991 33.95% 25.59%
20 1930-08-10 51.8 @ VPS 2 1226 49.53% Helsingfors 2 1226 24.89% 25.58%
21 1930-08-31 52.0 @ Helsingfors 1 1406 51.42% TPS Turku 1 1390 23.01% 25.56%
22 1930-09-07 54.5 TPS Turku 5 1398 18.46% @ ViPS Viipuri 2 1460 56.04% 25.50%
23 1930-10-12 * 54.5 @ Helsingfors 4 1566 37.51% TPS Turku 1 1564 36.88% 25.61%
24 1930-09-28 54.6 @ VPS 5 1024 18.08% ViPS Viipuri 3 1279 56.56% 25.36%
25 1930-08-31 55.2 @ VPS 3 969 50.48% Makkabi Helsinki 3 961 23.95% 25.57%