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1931 Mestaruussarja Season

28 games

Final

Champion

Helsingfors

14 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1930

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Helsingfors

2.81 points above expected

14 points · 11.19 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

ViPS Viipuri

2.94 points below expected

3 points · 5.94 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Helsingfors Champion 7 7 0 0 14 29 9 +20 11.19 +2.81
2 HPS Helsinki 7 4 2 1 10 22 12 +10 8.68 +1.32
3 TPS Turku 7 3 2 2 8 14 13 +1 8.66 -0.66
4 VPS 7 2 3 2 7 22 19 +3 6.99 +0.01
5 Kiffen 08 7 3 1 3 7 16 20 -4 5.63 +1.37
6 Sudet 7 1 2 4 4 14 22 -8 4.42 -0.42
7 HJK 7 0 3 4 3 12 16 -4 4.49 -1.49
8 ViPS Viipuri 7 0 3 4 3 7 25 -18 5.94 -2.94

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Helsingfors 14 11.19 +2.81
2 Kiffen 08 7 5.63 +1.37
3 HPS Helsinki 10 8.68 +1.32
4 VPS 7 6.99 +0.01
5 Sudet 4 4.42 -0.42

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 ViPS Viipuri 3 5.94 -2.94
2 HJK 3 4.49 -1.49
3 TPS Turku 8 8.66 -0.66
4 Sudet 4 4.42 -0.42
5 VPS 7 6.99 +0.01

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Helsingfors 7 Aug 5 – Sep 27 1 in 19
2 VPS 2 Sep 13 – Sep 20 1 in 6
3 Kiffen 08 2 Aug 23 – Sep 2 1 in 5
4 HPS Helsinki 2 Sep 20 – Sep 27 1 in 4
5 TPS Turku 2 Aug 2 – Aug 9 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kiffen 08 3 Aug 2 – Aug 16 1 in 8
2 HJK 3 Aug 29 – Sep 16 1 in 4
3 TPS Turku 2 Sep 20 – Sep 27 1 in 4
4 ViPS Viipuri 2 Aug 16 – Aug 23 1 in 4
5 Sudet 2 Aug 2 – Aug 9 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kiffen 08 4 Aug 23 – Sep 27 1 in 8
2 VPS 3 Aug 9 – Aug 23 1 in 6
3 HJK 1 Aug 2 – Aug 2 1 in 3
4 ViPS Viipuri 2 Aug 26 – Aug 30 1 in 3
5 HPS Helsinki 4 Aug 29 – Sep 27 1 in 2

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 ViPS Viipuri 7 Aug 2 – Sep 27 1 in 13
2 HJK 7 Aug 2 – Sep 27 1 in 4
3 VPS 4 Aug 9 – Aug 30 1 in 3
4 TPS Turku 3 Aug 30 – Sep 27 1 in 3
5 Sudet 4 Aug 23 – Sep 27 1 in 3

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Helsingfors 1376 14 +130 10 8.0 +2.0
HPS Helsinki 1199 10 +117 7 5.9 +1.1
TPS Turku 1002 8 -140 4 5.9 -1.9
Kiffen 08 962 7 +58 7 4.8 +2.2
VPS 964 7 +33 5 5.6 -0.6
Sudet 811 4 +32 4 3.8 +0.2
ViPS Viipuri 793 3 -117 2 3.9 -1.9
HJK 796 3 -40 2 3.2 -1.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team HJK HH HEL K0 SUD TT VPS VV
HJK —
0-0-1
0.47
0-0-1
0.39
0-0-1
0.80
0-1-0
1.77
0-0-1
0.85
0-1-0
0.68
0-1-0
0.55
HPS Helsinki
1-0-0
2.24
 —
0-0-1
0.44
0-1-0
1.63
1-0-0
2.20
1-0-0
1.63
0-1-0
1.60
1-0-0
2.13
Helsingfors
1-0-0
2.33
1-0-0
2.27
 —
1-0-0
2.31
1-0-0
2.18
1-0-0
2.07
1-0-0
2.39
1-0-0
2.26
Kiffen 08
1-0-0
1.90
0-1-0
1.06
0-0-1
0.41
 —
0-0-1
1.40
0-0-1
0.65
1-0-0
0.62
1-0-0
1.52
Sudet
0-1-0
0.92
0-0-1
0.51
0-0-1
0.53
1-0-0
1.30
 —
0-0-1
0.42
0-0-1
1.52
0-1-0
0.81
TPS Turku
1-0-0
1.85
0-0-1
1.07
0-0-1
0.64
1-0-0
2.06
1-0-0
2.29
 —
0-1-0
2.24
0-1-0
1.89
VPS
0-1-0
2.03
0-1-0
1.10
0-0-1
0.34
0-0-1
2.08
1-0-0
1.18
0-1-0
0.47
 —
1-0-0
2.02
ViPS Viipuri
0-1-0
2.16
0-0-1
0.58
0-0-1
0.45
0-0-1
1.18
0-1-0
1.88
0-1-0
0.81
0-0-1
0.69
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.81 +4.9
Allowed 0.67 -5.7
Differential 0.86 +3.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%———1.79%8.93%
13.57%10.71%5.36%1.79%1.79%1.79%25.00%
2—5.36%10.71%8.93%1.79%5.36%32.14%
3—1.79%8.93%—3.57%—14.29%
4—1.79%1.79%3.57%——7.14%
5+1.79%1.79%5.36%——3.57%12.50%
Total8.93%25.00%32.14%14.29%7.14%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 2.43 +0.00
SD 2.01 2.01 2.90
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 11 11 +11
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%————14.29%
1—28.57%14.29%———42.86%
2———28.57%——28.57%
3———————
4———————
5+—————14.29%14.29%
Total—42.86%14.29%28.57%—14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 2.29 -0.57
SD 1.60 1.50 0.53
CV 0.94 0.65 —
Max 5 5 +0
Min 0 1 -1

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
114.29%—————14.29%
2——28.57%14.29%——42.86%
3——14.29%———14.29%
4———————
5+—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
Total14.29%14.29%57.14%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.14 1.71 +1.43
SD 2.12 0.95 2.23
CV 0.67 0.55 —
Max 7 3 +5
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1———————
2—14.29%————14.29%
3—14.29%42.86%———57.14%
4—14.29%————14.29%
5+14.29%—————14.29%
Total14.29%42.86%42.86%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.14 1.29 +2.86
SD 3.08 0.76 3.67
CV 0.74 0.59 —
Max 11 2 +11
Min 2 0 +1

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1———————
2—28.57%14.29%14.29%14.29%14.29%85.71%
3———————
4———14.29%——14.29%
5+———————
Total—28.57%14.29%28.57%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 2.86 -0.57
SD 0.76 1.77 1.90
CV 0.33 0.62 —
Max 4 6 +1
Min 2 1 -4

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—28.57%——14.29%—42.86%
2———14.29%—14.29%28.57%
3————14.29%—14.29%
4——14.29%———14.29%
5+———————
Total—28.57%14.29%14.29%28.57%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 3.14 -1.14
SD 1.15 2.12 2.27
CV 0.58 0.67 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 1 1 -5

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—————14.29%
114.29%—14.29%——14.29%42.86%
2——14.29%———14.29%
3——14.29%———14.29%
4———————
5+——14.29%———14.29%
Total28.57%—57.14%——14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.86 +0.14
SD 2.00 1.68 2.41
CV 1.00 0.90 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—————14.29%
1———14.29%——14.29%
2——14.29%———14.29%
3————14.29%—14.29%
4———14.29%——14.29%
5+——14.29%——14.29%28.57%
Total14.29%—28.57%28.57%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.14 2.71 +0.43
SD 2.41 1.60 2.23
CV 0.77 0.59 —
Max 7 5 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%———14.29%28.57%
1—28.57%14.29%———42.86%
2——14.29%——14.29%28.57%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—42.86%28.57%——28.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 3.57 -2.57
SD 0.82 3.91 4.12
CV 0.82 1.09 —
Max 2 11 +0
Min 0 1 -11

Games Played: 7

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Helsingfors 1376 14 11.19 +2.81 100.0% 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
HPS Helsinki 1199 10 8.68 +1.32 87.0% 3 5 7 9 10 11 14
TPS Turku 1002 8 8.66 -0.66 44.0% 4 6 7 9 10 11 13
VPS 964 7 6.99 +0.01 60.0% 1 4 6 7 8 10 11
Kiffen 08 962 7 5.63 +1.37 85.0% 1 3 4 6 7 9 11
Sudet 811 4 4.42 -0.42 51.0% 0 2 3 4 6 8 10
HJK 796 3 4.49 -1.49 31.0% 1 2 3 4 6 7 9
ViPS Viipuri 793 3 5.94 -2.94 8.0% 1 3 5 6 7 9 11

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.43%
Strong Edge
46.43%28.57%25.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge
163 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
075.62500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.07 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.46+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.5
One-Team Race
13458
Champion Preseason Odds
81%
Helsingfors, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.57/gm
Runaway
00.260.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 1.46 * Some Luck: 1.46 to 2.19 * Lucky: 2.19 to 2.91 * Wild Swing: 2.91 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.92 * Close: 0.92 to 1.38 * Off: 1.38 to 1.84 * Way Off: 1.84 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
1.70 points
Some Luck
01.825
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Pinpoint
01.152.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
100.00%
Helsingfors
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
8.00%
ViPS Viipuri
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Lopsided
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 207.89
1.69
Moderate Separation
0.951.41.71.92.5
Interquartile Edge
80%
Wide Edge
50%62.5%70%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
71%
Very Frequent
0%39%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Occasional
0%40%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.49
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.60
Lopsided
00.330.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.01
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.77
Near-Lock
00.210.460.591
Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Chalky
0%14%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
4%
Solid Favorites
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.27 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.27 to 0.41 * Above Noise: 0.41 to 0.55 * Well Above Noise: 0.55 and up.
Probability calibration
0.91
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.46
Very Underconfident
0.4019171.001.59808
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.140
Well Within Noise
00.2750.8

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Helsingfors81.00%15.00%3.00%1.00%————
HPS Helsinki9.00%37.00%29.00%11.00%5.00%4.00%4.00%1.00%
TPS Turku8.00%24.00%39.00%14.00%9.00%3.00%3.00%—
VPS1.00%15.00%13.00%35.00%17.00%11.00%3.00%5.00%
Kiffen 081.00%3.00%5.00%14.00%25.00%25.00%18.00%9.00%
Sudet—1.00%2.00%7.00%9.00%22.00%20.00%39.00%
HJK——2.00%4.00%15.00%25.00%20.00%34.00%
ViPS Viipuri—5.00%7.00%14.00%20.00%10.00%32.00%12.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Helsingfors 100% —
TPS Turku 97.00% 3.00%
HPS Helsinki 95.00% 5.00%
VPS 92.00% 8.00%
Kiffen 08 73.00% 27.00%
ViPS Viipuri 56.00% 44.00%
HJK 46.00% 54.00%
Sudet 41.00% 59.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1931-08-02 Sudet W 7-233.1 1046 849 63.56% 29.33% 7.12%+1.68 +38.0 2
1931-08-02 @ HPS Helsinki L 2-733.1 849 1046 7.12% 29.33% 63.56%-1.68 -37.9 0
1931-08-02 Kiffen 08 W 6-235.8 1067 958 58.55% 29.86% 11.59%+1.13 +47.8 2
1931-08-02 @ TPS Turku L 2-635.8 958 1067 11.59% 29.86% 58.55%-1.13 -47.8 0
1931-08-02 HJK D 1-146.7 1017 849 62.09% 29.53% 8.39%+1.50 -15.0 1
1931-08-02 @ ViPS Viipuri D 1-146.7 849 1017 8.39% 29.53% 62.09%-1.50 +15.0 1
1931-08-05 Kiffen 08 W 3-237.4 1207 910 67.38% 28.51% 4.11%+2.29 +6.7 2
1931-08-05 @ Helsingfors L 2-337.4 910 1207 4.11% 28.51% 67.38%-2.29 -6.7 0
1931-08-09 TPS Turku L 0-135.7 864 1114 18.37% 29.90% 51.72%-1.08 -27.1 1
1931-08-09 @ HJK W 1-035.7 1114 864 51.72% 29.90% 18.37%+1.08 +27.1 4
1931-08-09 Helsingfors L 1-432.3 811 1214 8.15% 28.91% 62.94%-2.01 -31.8 0
1931-08-09 @ Sudet W 4-132.3 1214 811 62.94% 28.91% 8.15%+2.01 +31.8 4
1931-08-09 HPS Helsinki D 2-249.7 909 1084 26.60% 30.18% 43.22%-0.61 +2.9 1
1931-08-09 @ VPS D 2-249.7 1084 909 43.22% 30.18% 26.60%+0.61 -2.9 3
1931-08-16 ViPS Viipuri W 11-029.0 1246 1002 65.53% 28.97% 5.50%+1.96 +91.8 6
1931-08-16 @ Helsingfors L 0-1129.0 1002 1246 5.50% 28.97% 65.53%-1.96 -91.8 1
1931-08-16 Kiffen 08 W 4-246.1 779 903 33.31% 30.28% 36.41%-0.30 +65.4 2
1931-08-16 @ Sudet L 2-446.1 903 779 36.41% 30.28% 33.31%+0.30 -65.4 0
1931-08-16 VPS D 0-044.5 1142 912 64.95% 29.09% 5.97%+1.87 -18.9 5
1931-08-16 @ TPS Turku D 0-044.5 912 1142 5.97% 29.09% 64.95%-1.87 +18.9 2
1931-08-23 ViPS Viipuri W 2-141.9 838 910 40.59% 30.31% 29.10%+0.02 +36.0 2
1931-08-23 @ Kiffen 08 L 1-241.9 910 838 29.10% 30.31% 40.59%-0.02 -36.0 1
1931-08-23 Sudet W 3-237.5 1123 844 66.75% 28.68% 4.57%+2.17 +7.4 7
1931-08-23 @ TPS Turku L 2-337.5 844 1123 4.57% 28.68% 66.75%-2.17 -7.4 2
1931-08-23 HJK D 5-558.7 931 837 57.53% 29.93% 12.55%+1.04 -5.9 3
1931-08-23 @ VPS D 5-558.7 837 931 12.55% 29.93% 57.53%-1.04 +5.9 2
1931-08-24 HPS Helsinki W 3-238.0 1338 1081 65.98% 28.87% 5.15%+2.04 +8.3 8
1931-08-24 @ Helsingfors L 2-338.0 1081 1338 5.15% 28.87% 65.98%-2.04 -8.3 3
1931-08-26 Sudet D 1-146.5 874 837 52.78% 30.14% 17.07%+0.69 -9.1 2
1931-08-26 @ ViPS Viipuri D 1-146.5 837 874 17.07% 30.14% 52.78%-0.69 +9.1 3
1931-08-29 HJK W 3-238.1 1073 843 64.99% 29.08% 5.93%+1.88 +9.4 5
1931-08-29 @ HPS Helsinki L 2-338.1 843 1073 5.93% 29.08% 64.99%-1.88 -9.4 2
1931-08-30 VPS W 3-131.4 1346 925 70.67% 27.21% 2.12%+3.05 +6.3 10
1931-08-30 @ Helsingfors L 1-331.4 925 1346 2.12% 27.21% 70.67%-3.05 -6.3 3
1931-08-30 TPS Turku D 2-249.8 865 1130 17.03% 29.83% 53.13%-1.17 +6.9 3
1931-08-30 @ ViPS Viipuri D 2-249.8 1130 865 53.13% 29.83% 17.03%+1.17 -6.9 8
1931-09-02 HJK W 2-138.1 874 833 53.16% 30.13% 16.70%+0.72 +23.9 4
1931-09-02 @ Kiffen 08 L 1-238.1 833 874 16.70% 30.13% 53.16%-0.72 -23.9 2
1931-09-13 HPS Helsinki D 2-249.7 898 1082 25.43% 30.15% 44.41%-0.67 +3.4 5
1931-09-13 @ Kiffen 08 D 2-249.7 1082 898 44.41% 30.15% 25.43%+0.67 -3.4 6
1931-09-13 VPS L 3-452.2 846 919 40.46% 30.31% 29.23%+0.02 -42.3 3
1931-09-13 @ Sudet W 4-352.2 919 846 29.23% 30.31% 40.46%-0.02 +42.3 5
1931-09-16 Helsingfors L 2-337.0 809 1352 3.83% 27.54% 68.63%-2.87 -6.0 2
1931-09-16 @ HJK W 3-237.0 1352 809 68.63% 27.54% 3.83%+2.87 +6.0 12
1931-09-20 TPS Turku W 5-137.0 1079 1123 44.12% 30.30% 25.58%+0.19 +103.9 8
1931-09-20 @ HPS Helsinki L 1-537.0 1123 1079 25.58% 30.30% 44.12%-0.19 -103.9 8
1931-09-20 ViPS Viipuri W 7-235.1 961 871 57.19% 29.95% 12.86%+1.02 +62.8 7
1931-09-20 @ VPS L 2-735.1 871 961 12.86% 29.95% 57.19%-1.02 -62.8 3
1931-09-27 Sudet D 1-146.5 803 804 49.08% 30.24% 20.68%+0.46 -7.0 3
1931-09-27 @ HJK D 1-146.5 804 803 20.68% 30.24% 49.08%-0.46 +7.0 4
1931-09-27 Helsingfors L 1-236.5 1019 1358 11.54% 29.39% 59.07%-1.62 -17.6 8
1931-09-27 @ TPS Turku W 2-136.5 1358 1019 59.07% 29.39% 11.54%+1.62 +17.5 14
1931-09-27 HPS Helsinki L 0-132.9 809 1183 9.53% 29.14% 61.33%-1.84 -15.8 3
1931-09-27 @ ViPS Viipuri W 1-032.9 1183 809 61.33% 29.14% 9.53%+1.84 +15.8 10
1931-09-27 Kiffen 08 L 3-457.8 1024 901 59.47% 29.79% 10.74%+1.22 -60.3 7
1931-09-27 @ VPS W 4-357.8 901 1024 10.74% 29.79% 59.47%-1.22 +60.3 7

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1931-09-27 10.74% Kiffen 08 901 4 @ VPS 1024 3
2 1931-09-13 29.23% VPS 919 4 @ Sudet 846 3
3 1931-08-16 33.31% @ Sudet 779 4 Kiffen 08 903 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1931-09-20 103.90 @ HPS Helsinki 5 1079 44.12% TPS Turku 1 1123 25.58% 30.30%
2 1931-08-16 91.82 @ Helsingfors 11 1246 65.53% ViPS Viipuri 0 1002 5.50% 28.97%
3 1931-08-16 65.38 @ Sudet 4 779 33.31% Kiffen 08 2 903 36.41% 30.28%
4 1931-09-20 62.83 @ VPS 7 961 57.19% ViPS Viipuri 2 871 12.86% 29.95%
5 1931-09-27 60.30 Kiffen 08 4 901 10.74% @ VPS 3 1024 59.47% 29.79%
6 1931-08-02 47.78 @ TPS Turku 6 1067 58.55% Kiffen 08 2 958 11.59% 29.86%
7 1931-09-13 42.30 VPS 4 919 29.23% @ Sudet 3 846 40.46% 30.31%
8 1931-08-02 37.95 @ HPS Helsinki 7 1046 63.56% Sudet 2 849 7.12% 29.33%
9 1931-08-23 36.04 @ Kiffen 08 2 838 40.59% ViPS Viipuri 1 910 29.10% 30.31%
10 1931-08-09 31.82 Helsingfors 4 1214 62.94% @ Sudet 1 811 8.15% 28.91%
11 1931-08-09 27.10 TPS Turku 1 1114 51.72% @ HJK 0 864 18.37% 29.90%
12 1931-09-02 23.86 @ Kiffen 08 2 874 53.16% HJK 1 833 16.70% 30.13%
13 1931-08-16 18.95 VPS 0 912 5.97% @ TPS Turku 0 1142 64.95% 29.09%
14 1931-09-27 17.55 Helsingfors 2 1358 59.07% @ TPS Turku 1 1019 11.54% 29.39%
15 1931-09-27 15.81 HPS Helsinki 1 1183 61.33% @ ViPS Viipuri 0 809 9.53% 29.14%
16 1931-08-02 15.01 @ ViPS Viipuri 1 1017 62.09% HJK 1 849 8.39% 29.53%
17 1931-08-29 9.42 @ HPS Helsinki 3 1073 64.99% HJK 2 843 5.93% 29.08%
18 1931-08-26 9.13 Sudet 1 837 17.07% @ ViPS Viipuri 1 874 52.78% 30.14%
19 1931-08-24 8.26 @ Helsingfors 3 1338 65.98% HPS Helsinki 2 1081 5.15% 28.87%
20 1931-08-23 7.38 @ TPS Turku 3 1123 66.75% Sudet 2 844 4.57% 28.68%
21 1931-09-27 7.03 @ HJK 1 803 49.08% Sudet 1 804 20.68% 30.24%
22 1931-08-30 6.88 TPS Turku 2 1130 53.13% @ ViPS Viipuri 2 865 17.03% 29.83%
23 1931-08-05 6.67 @ Helsingfors 3 1207 67.38% Kiffen 08 2 910 4.11% 28.51%
24 1931-08-30 6.26 @ Helsingfors 3 1346 70.67% VPS 1 925 2.12% 27.21%
25 1931-09-16 6.05 Helsingfors 3 1352 68.63% @ HJK 2 809 3.83% 27.54%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1931-08-23 58.7 @ VPS 5 931 57.53% HJK 5 837 12.55% 29.93%
2 1931-09-27 57.8 Kiffen 08 4 901 10.74% @ VPS 3 1024 59.47% 29.79%
3 1931-09-13 52.2 VPS 4 919 29.23% @ Sudet 3 846 40.46% 30.31%
4 1931-08-30 49.8 @ ViPS Viipuri 2 865 17.03% TPS Turku 2 1130 53.13% 29.83%
5 1931-08-09 49.7 @ VPS 2 909 26.60% HPS Helsinki 2 1084 43.22% 30.18%
6 1931-09-13 49.7 @ Kiffen 08 2 898 25.43% HPS Helsinki 2 1082 44.41% 30.15%
7 1931-08-02 46.7 @ ViPS Viipuri 1 1017 62.09% HJK 1 849 8.39% 29.53%
8 1931-08-26 46.5 @ ViPS Viipuri 1 874 52.78% Sudet 1 837 17.07% 30.14%
9 1931-09-27 46.5 @ HJK 1 803 49.08% Sudet 1 804 20.68% 30.24%
10 1931-08-16 46.1 @ Sudet 4 779 33.31% Kiffen 08 2 903 36.41% 30.28%
11 1931-08-16 44.5 @ TPS Turku 0 1142 64.95% VPS 0 912 5.97% 29.09%
12 1931-08-23 41.9 @ Kiffen 08 2 838 40.59% ViPS Viipuri 1 910 29.10% 30.31%
13 1931-08-29 38.1 @ HPS Helsinki 3 1073 64.99% HJK 2 843 5.93% 29.08%
14 1931-09-02 38.1 @ Kiffen 08 2 874 53.16% HJK 1 833 16.70% 30.13%
15 1931-08-24 38.0 @ Helsingfors 3 1338 65.98% HPS Helsinki 2 1081 5.15% 28.87%
16 1931-08-23 37.5 @ TPS Turku 3 1123 66.75% Sudet 2 844 4.57% 28.68%
17 1931-08-05 37.4 @ Helsingfors 3 1207 67.38% Kiffen 08 2 910 4.11% 28.51%
18 1931-09-16 37.0 Helsingfors 3 1352 68.63% @ HJK 2 809 3.83% 27.54%
19 1931-09-20 37.0 @ HPS Helsinki 5 1079 44.12% TPS Turku 1 1123 25.58% 30.30%
20 1931-09-27 36.5 Helsingfors 2 1358 59.07% @ TPS Turku 1 1019 11.54% 29.39%
21 1931-08-02 35.8 @ TPS Turku 6 1067 58.55% Kiffen 08 2 958 11.59% 29.86%
22 1931-08-09 35.7 TPS Turku 1 1114 51.72% @ HJK 0 864 18.37% 29.90%
23 1931-09-20 35.1 @ VPS 7 961 57.19% ViPS Viipuri 2 871 12.86% 29.95%
24 1931-08-02 33.1 @ HPS Helsinki 7 1046 63.56% Sudet 2 849 7.12% 29.33%
25 1931-09-27 32.9 HPS Helsinki 1 1183 61.33% @ ViPS Viipuri 0 809 9.53% 29.14%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1931-08-16 29.0 @ Helsingfors 11 1246 65.53% ViPS Viipuri 0 1002 5.50% 28.97%
2 1931-08-30 31.4 @ Helsingfors 3 1346 70.67% VPS 1 925 2.12% 27.21%
3 1931-08-09 32.3 Helsingfors 4 1214 62.94% @ Sudet 1 811 8.15% 28.91%
4 1931-09-27 32.9 HPS Helsinki 1 1183 61.33% @ ViPS Viipuri 0 809 9.53% 29.14%
5 1931-08-02 33.1 @ HPS Helsinki 7 1046 63.56% Sudet 2 849 7.12% 29.33%
6 1931-09-20 35.1 @ VPS 7 961 57.19% ViPS Viipuri 2 871 12.86% 29.95%
7 1931-08-09 35.7 TPS Turku 1 1114 51.72% @ HJK 0 864 18.37% 29.90%
8 1931-08-02 35.8 @ TPS Turku 6 1067 58.55% Kiffen 08 2 958 11.59% 29.86%
9 1931-09-27 36.5 Helsingfors 2 1358 59.07% @ TPS Turku 1 1019 11.54% 29.39%
10 1931-09-16 37.0 Helsingfors 3 1352 68.63% @ HJK 2 809 3.83% 27.54%
11 1931-09-20 37.0 @ HPS Helsinki 5 1079 44.12% TPS Turku 1 1123 25.58% 30.30%
12 1931-08-05 37.4 @ Helsingfors 3 1207 67.38% Kiffen 08 2 910 4.11% 28.51%
13 1931-08-23 37.5 @ TPS Turku 3 1123 66.75% Sudet 2 844 4.57% 28.68%
14 1931-08-24 38.0 @ Helsingfors 3 1338 65.98% HPS Helsinki 2 1081 5.15% 28.87%
15 1931-08-29 38.1 @ HPS Helsinki 3 1073 64.99% HJK 2 843 5.93% 29.08%
16 1931-09-02 38.1 @ Kiffen 08 2 874 53.16% HJK 1 833 16.70% 30.13%
17 1931-08-23 41.9 @ Kiffen 08 2 838 40.59% ViPS Viipuri 1 910 29.10% 30.31%
18 1931-08-16 44.5 @ TPS Turku 0 1142 64.95% VPS 0 912 5.97% 29.09%
19 1931-08-16 46.1 @ Sudet 4 779 33.31% Kiffen 08 2 903 36.41% 30.28%
20 1931-08-26 46.5 @ ViPS Viipuri 1 874 52.78% Sudet 1 837 17.07% 30.14%
21 1931-09-27 46.5 @ HJK 1 803 49.08% Sudet 1 804 20.68% 30.24%
22 1931-08-02 46.7 @ ViPS Viipuri 1 1017 62.09% HJK 1 849 8.39% 29.53%
23 1931-08-09 49.7 @ VPS 2 909 26.60% HPS Helsinki 2 1084 43.22% 30.18%
24 1931-09-13 49.7 @ Kiffen 08 2 898 25.43% HPS Helsinki 2 1082 44.41% 30.15%
25 1931-08-30 49.8 @ ViPS Viipuri 2 865 17.03% TPS Turku 2 1130 53.13% 29.83%